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Education: Why your trading strategy win rate doesn't matter!What makes a profitable automated strategy? Probably the biggest misconception for trading perpetuated in the mainstream is that you need to have a greater than 50% win rate to be profitable. This is followed by a close second, of constantly assuming you need to have a risk-reward ratio of greater than 1:1 (e.g. 1:2, 1:3 etc). This one is perpetuated mostly by forex and stock market gurus. By the end of this article, I hope to dispel these myths and aim to shed some truths on how to assess a profitable strategy. Why your win rate doesn't matter: Let's simplify this down using an example. Consider the following two strategies. Which one would you rather trade? Strategy A: 50% win rate - When you win you make 2 dollars, but when you lose, you lose 1 dollar Strategy B: 50% win rate - When you win you make 5 dollars, but when you lose, you lose 1 dollar This one was a very obvious case of choosing Strategy B. In this case, both strategies have the same win rate, but Strategy B nets you 5 dollars per win, whereas Strategy A only makes you 2. Let's take another example. A little less obvious this time. Which one would you rather trade here? Strategy A: 90% win rate - When you win you make 1 dollar, but when you lose you lose 50 dollars Strategy B: 10% win rate - When you win you make 200 dollars, but when you lose, you lose 1 dollar Now the 90% win rate strategy may look attractive on the surface, but when you dig into it, you realise that you could get a massive 50 dollar loss in the 10% of times you do lose! For those of you who chose strategy B, this is the correct answer. One way we can assess the above strategies is using Expectancy . The formula for Expectancy is as follows: (Win % x Average Win Size) – (Loss % x Average Loss Size) We can calculate the expectancies of the strategy below: Strategy A: (0.9 * 1) - (0.1 * 50) = -4.1 Meaning you are expected to lose an average of $4.10 per trade using strategy A. Not a good sign. Strategy B: (0.1 * 200) - (0.9*1) = 19.1 Meaning you are expected to win an average of $19.10 per trade using strategy B. This is a major winner here! As you've probably realised. It is possible to have a profitable strategy using a low win rate. Many trend trading/breakout strategies tend to have lower win rates, but with larger rewards to risk, whilst mean-reversion strategies tend to have higher win rates with less frequent but larger drawdowns. The backtest shown in this post shows an example of a low win rate, and high win amount strategy using the Smoothed Heikin Ashi Trend on Chart indicator which I have developed, with an overall positive expectancy, backtest (note, no strategy is perfect, should not just blindly trust backtest data). Why you may still choose to define a risk/reward Better consistency of your strategy Psychological factor of knowing that you can be expected to lose only x amount (assuming no slippage etc) As an aside, note that defining a fixed risk-reward may hurt your win rate (which could impact your expectancy) so it's important to backtest to see if you get better results with defined risk-reward parameters. This is beyond the scope of the current article, but an important consideration. Why do traders gravitate toward a higher win rate? The simple answer here is that everyone wants to be a winner! It's human nature to want to be right, whether this be about a market direction or when to open or close a trade. It's often easier to brag about how much you win whether that be on social media or just feeling good about yourself. For algorithmic traders, having a higher win rate may also provide psychological benefits, as losing 20 times in a row can sometimes be very daunting for traders and can throw doubt into the efficacy of your system. I hope that through this article, I have managed to convey that it may be prudent consider strategies with low win rates also, as these can be very profitable in their own right. Digging further: This article is only just scratching the surface of how to create and validate if a strategy is something that you should consider trading. There are many aspects of backtesting including Monte Carlo simulation, understanding standard deviation of returns and risk, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, walk-forward analysis, and out-of-sample analysis to name a few that you should conduct before you evaluate a strategy as suitable for live trading. If you've made it this far, thanks for reading. If you like the content, feel free to like and share, as well as check out some of the free scripts, strategies and indicators that I have published under the scripts tab. Thank you! Disclaimer: Not to be taken as financial advice, anything published by me is purely for education and entertainment purposes
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TraderHalai
3
IS IT TIME TO CHANGE THE STRATEGY?In order for your strategy to start making a profit, it takes time, patience and discipline, no matter if you bought it or developed it yourself. To see the weaknesses and strengths of the strategy, you need to test it, and this means strict adherence to the rules for a long time. At some point, there may come a situation when it is worth abandoning the strategy in order to develop further. But when should it be done? That's what I want to talk about today. How to understand that the strategy is outdated and it's time to get rid of it? I present to you four signs that it's time to get rid of the strategy: 1. Inability to follow the rules Any strategy implies rules to be followed. Take a look at the list below: • It is too specific; • It is extremely uncertain; • It's too complicated; • Contains a large number of items/rules. If your strategy contains these items, it's probably time to get rid of it. The strategy should not be too complicated, otherwise you will not be able to use it. At the same time, it should be understandable. If you don't understand your strategy and can't change it, make it easier, then it's time to throw it away. 2. You spend a lot of effort and end up getting nothing Do you sit in front of a monitor screen all day all week? Do you compare a large number of indicators to confirm the signal? Does your strategy require you to turn to the sun and recite the alphabet in reverse order at exactly 5:30 in the morning? If it is inconvenient for you to use your system consistently for long periods of time, or if you believe that it brings plus or minus the same number of points of profit in comparison with not using it at all, then it's probably time to look at other options. 3. You lose more than you gain This applies to those who prefer to buy ready-made strategies from other people. Although not all strategies available on the market are "divorce", the chances that you have chosen one of them are very high. If your signal provider generates more various signals for entering and exiting the market every month than real profits, then it's time to admit your mistake. The same applies if you use your own system, but pay a lot of money for subscribing to some data - you should also think about replacing your strategy with another one. 4. It just doesn't make a profit There is not much to say here. If you have shown due diligence and tested your strategy, tried to revise it, adjust it and launch it in various market conditions. If it still won't bring you profit, then obviously it's time to move on in search of a new strategy. Thank you for your time – I hope this will help you and your trading.
Education
by DeGRAM
4
📊How to make a trading strategy?What helps the traders to be successful? That's right, their trading strategies. A trading strategy is a trader's plan for deciding whether or not to open a trade. The purpose of the strategy is to help the trader to make more successful trades, to analyze the mistakes and successes. At a time of uncertainty, these rules help to keep calm and make the right decision. Simply put, it's a set of filters that remove unnecessary noise from the charts and help you make right decision. 💹How to develop a trading strategy? Figure out what you want to trade and what you're best at. Do you like trading false breakouts? Let`s do it! Like to trade patterns? Perfect! Pick your best 20-30 possible trades from the past on the chart, and look for those patterns to repeat on the chart. As soon as you get a chance to make a trade, remember the rules of your strategy, and if they all match, then do it. 💹What does a trading strategy consist of? This set of rules includes: 1️⃣ The tool you use (patterns, levels, indicators, waves, candlestick analysis, etc.). For example, a squeeze under the trend line, a false breakout of a level, the exit of the indicator into the oversold or overbought zone - all these trading tools can be used in your strategy. 2️⃣ Risk Management. How much money to use in 1 trade, risk per trade. This is a mandatory ingredient of any trading strategy. You can't be 100% right on every trade, so risking all of your capital is not advisable. The average win rate of traders is 50-60%. That means that 5-6 out of 10 trades will be successful - an excellent result. The other 4 trades will be either loss-making or break-even, so it is better to start with a small amount or virtual account on the crypto exchange. In the picture below, you can see what the risk-to-reward ratio and winrate should be. If you have 50% of successful trades, then at least in each trade you should have RR 1:2 (for 1 risk you receive 2 rewards). To calculate your RR in TradingView, use the "Date and Price Range" section on the left side of the screen and choose "Long Positions" or "Short Position". ✅Example of a trading strategy. Tools: 🔶false breakout of the key level; 🔶volume indicator. Description: you marked a key level of $30420 on the chart. After the false breakout you noticed that a large volume appeared on the chart. Target: the level of highs of $42K. Risk to reward (RR) 1:5. Good for us? Let's look at the table! The win rate of this strategy is 50% and so RR profitable. 🚩Summary: by opening a trade with a risk of $10, you got $50. 💹Advice for beginners: 1. the trading strategy does not have to be yours. You can take the rules from another strategy and adapt them to you, make your own risk management, rules of entering the trade, in the end, how many trades you make per week or month. 2. start with something simple, like a channel trade and a volume indicator that will show you the reaction of a buyer or seller when it touches the channel boundary. Gradually add filters to remove noise from your charts and increase your win rate. For example, do not open a long on altcoins if Bitcoin is falling. Statistically, 99% of cryptocurrencies repeat Bitcoin's movements, so it is unlikely to be a good trade. Unless you know the secret information, or you have more than 8 years in trading, and you have enough experience. 3. make screenshots of your best and unsuccessful trades, analyze problems and fix them, and try to repeat the best trades more often. A trading journal is best for keeping statistics. 🏁Follow your plan and you will succeed. If you still have questions about how to create your trading strategy, write in the comments. Experienced traders, how did you create your own trading strategy? Share it with the beginners! 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Education
by Yuriy_Bishko
3
SETTING REALISTIC GOALSHey Traders, Traders whether they are new to the world of finance or have been involved for a while can benefit greatly from setting specific goals in correlation to what it is they actually want to achieve. There's a million different ways on focusing and goal setting in trading and a lot of people get it wrong straight out of the gates. To this day I still see some professional traders still setting their goals wrong. Traders need to get to focusing on the process of trading, including strategies, structures, journaling, whatever it may be. You have to focus on these processes set in place for yourself regardless of results. This can be so much more effective with getting to an area of consistency compared to just focusing on returns. One key takeaway I want you to get from this post is all traders, whether novice or whether you're experienced, you should be basing your trading results off of how well thought out the trading plan was, which includes how the trades will be entered, exited, how the money will be managed. That right there is how you measure performance, not the Profit and Loss that comes from the trades. Process Goal Setting - Initially, when getting into trading, most traders look for some kind of goal surrounding numbers. We are all here to make money, to make percentage gains. So we tend to gravitate towards setting our goals based on what we want to return, what type of money we want to make, what time are percentage yield we want to bring in. This is damaging in its own right. It's very easy for people to say, OK, I'm going to try an make 1% per day and I'm going to do all my trading to make 1% per day. Then all of a sudden they start planning in the future. "Okay, I make 1% per day everyday for the rest of the year," and then all of a sudden they start calculating what they're expected to return and they give themselves these high hopes in achieving that. But The thing is, what they're not understanding is given their strategy, 1% per day might not be possible. We can't say yes. I'm going to make 1% per day and our strategy not allow that to happen. We may only find one opportunity per week given our strategy, we might only find three opportunities, but we have a 33% win rate. So having these unrealistic, number focused goals are really damaging because no matter how much work you put into it, it may not be possible. Just like any other business, we need to develop a process. Anna system and our goals need to be set on doing that process an working that system correctly and consistently. So rather setting goals for, I want to make 5% this month. Set goals like I want to only take trades which are an A-Grade set-up in accordance to my strategy. I want to journal every trade for the next 4 weeks. Goals like these make you focus on the process, and I don't know a single business that is successful without a good process. Most businesses don't get profitable for a set period of time. Some even just fail. Without a process and without setting goals aligning with those processes will make your results be based on chance and not based on skill. Aim for consistency - When it's early on and you may still be demo trading or trading with a small amount of money, I want you to start aiming for consistency. Now I know that can be hard when running in drawdowns or perhaps even trading a strategy that isn't profitable, but what you can do is aim to be consistent in your process aim to be consistent in your decision making. Aim to be consistent in your risk management. What you will learn is whether your strategy is profitable or not. You will learn a lot about the market. What you will notice after a long period of consistency (Trade for at-least three months) is your areas that need improvement. let's stay consistent and every single day you do the same thing, you trade the same setups, you trade exactly the same way, which a lot of people don't have the self discipline to do. You will notice areas where you can improve on based off of those results. Most people give up and fail because they're not disciplined enough to remain consistent in a strategy which isn't providing them with the unrealistic returns that they're aiming for. If you sit down and you take it seriously for three months, win or lose, I guarantee you will take about 18 steps forward in the right direction compared to just sitting on the balance rope jumping from strategy to strategy. It is okay to not trade - This is where consistency and discipline delivers the reality check. The market is constantly moving, sometimes slow, sometimes fast, and that gives people the impression that their strategy is always valid and they always have to be risk on and always have to be trading. This isn't the case. Trading during slow times or making impulsive trades outside of the scope of your plan is such a common issue that I feel the need to point it out in today's message. So many people will try and force their strategy or force themselves to get in and make money when the opportunity isn't there. Have a plan. Understand what it is you want to see. Understand what it is you want to trade and wait patiently until that opportunity arises. Do not try and force trading. It will only result in one way and it will not result in you achieving the goals that you want to achieve. Start small, then grow - I witness day in day out, traders just trying to get onto big accounts because they believe if they had more money they would achieve better results. They build the most complex strategies and trade four different strategies across 12 different assets straight out of the gates. This is not an easy game. This is not an easy money grab. It can generate thousands and thousands of dollars if done right. But it has to be done right. The learning process is the exact same. Start small, be a niche trader focused on a few manageable goals. Results will come in time. If you trade according to your trading plan you've remained disciplined and you do everything I spoke about today, you will see improvements and progress. Set goals, realistic goals that have nothing to do with profit and loss, but have everything to do with being a consistent, self disciplined trader and you will see returns come in the long run. If you develop the foundations to being a profitable trader, the profits will be delivered once you get a greater understanding of what needs to be done. I wish you all great success and cannot wait to hear about your consistency in trading!
Education
by the5erstrading
69
Trading the bleeding markets with a winning mindset ;)There's a great struggle going from profit to loss. A burst of a bubble, which in it's essence is hope. But this is false. The odds are, that your profits were on paper, so how does a loss on paper differ from a profit on paper? Truth is - It doesn't. But what it does do is play with your emotion. Our mind has a tendency of expecting the worst once things start rolling in that direction. Take a step back and think about what life threw at you so many times in the past, think about the times you thought things are going to end up the worst but actually didn't. It could be you planned a nice day outside with your partner in the park but it started to rain. But instead of crying about the day wasted and how this is just awful, you ended up cooking together a nice lunch and drinking wine while finding a new great TV show to watch, ending up being one of the best days in a while. Not let's roll back to trading. And let's cut out negative thinking completely just for 3 minutes and look only at the positive. Positive points - 1) Cheap instruments all around to invest in 2) Great practice of mental skills while trading, which truly is the most influential aspect of mastering trading 3) It reminds you the very basics of trading that we lose track of once markets start flying up - Buy low, sell high. 4) Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity - Every time you would have bought into the stock market, over a few year period you would make great returns, same thing goes even for people who bought Bitcoin after the decline of 2018 and pretty much any other pop financial instrument. 5) You're a day trader? Great! Volatility is amazing if you have a strategy which is disciplined and consistent as well as based on risk management. See how bright the light shines at this very moment? Keep it. Be positive. Be hopeful. Be practical. The negative quotes such as - I can lose everything! It's never going to rally back! This is taking too long! I don't have patience for this! This is turning out to be so not fun! I didn't expect to hold this trade this long! How will any of this benefit you in any way? Where's the logic? Where's the gain? Where's the analysis? Where's the market view? Where's the money management? Only look at what is relevant to your success. Block the negative, ignore it completely as much as you can and eventually always. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thank you so much for reading! I hope you found my idea useful, if you did, please like and follow! It would mean the world to me. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Exactus
EURUSD : Scalping 30m chart strategy , simple!Think you are the master of discipline? Here's your potential way to make it big trading! Extremely straight forward is this RSI 14 , 30 minute chart strategy. When RSI goes to around 70+ it's time to short and aim for 10-15 pip When RSI goes to around 30 and below , it's time to long and aim for 10-15 pip. You can place your SL with 10 pip lower/higher and your TP with 15 pip higher/lower. Money management is critical and discipline is critical. You are not to aim for bigger profit, further SL, trade when RSI is not overbought/oversold and so on. Money management should be almost minimal lot size with every trade like this you take. Split it with 4-5 currencies and you have yourself a strategy to follow and test. Good luck! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would mean a lot to me. Thank you so much for listening and let me know what I can do to help , with questions/comments on the post. Obviously I am not a financial advisor and I encourage you to do your own research and be cautious when day trading! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Education
by Exactus
6
How To Backtest Further In The Past On Low TimeframesQuick video to show this little trick using the Replay mode that allows us to load more historical bars than real time, and thus get a better picture at how a strategy can perform over time. The Strategy Tester re-calculate the results everytime we load new bars, as the indicator strategy is correctly applied to these new bars. I got the confirmation from the awesome TradingView Support Team that the extra data that you get this way is real and relevant, and can be used to test your strategies. That means we are no more limited to 15/30 days backtest data in the 5min timeframe for example.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.PEducation
by cyatophilum
55
How I trade BA This video covers my BA trading strategy. I get many requests on what my trading style looks like (as a quant trader), so I figured I would show how I trade BA, as this particular strategy is replicable and the tools I use are publicly available (linked below). NOTE: This isn't financial advice. As well, my signal to long BA is always a Z Score of -2.6. However, my signal to short BA changes based on the market sentiment. Currently, it is -1, however for the most part of 2021 and up until last month it was set at -0.5 to 0. In general, I DO NOT recommend shorting a stock with a Z-Score of -1. It is high risk. Its important when you are applying any strategy to back-test it first! As well, this strategy is applicable to other stocks; however, its important to get a feel for how the Z-Score behaves as each stock is unique. For example, TSLA I have seen go as low as a -4 Z Score and as high as a +4.4 Z Score. The parameters I share in this video are my current parameters for BA but are subject to change as the sentiment changes. Let me know your questions/comments and criticisms below! Thanks for watching
NYSE:BAEducation
by Steversteves
2
What Does Consistency Mean In Trading ? Hello traders: Today let's talk about “consistency” in trading. Many traders understand they need to be consistent, but what exactly is consistent in trading ? To me, it's not just making consistent “profit”, rather it's being consistent with your trading strategy, risk management, trading psychology, mindset and emotion. Let's take a look at a few examples of consistency in trading: Consistency in profits: More often traders think about hitting a set amount of % return in consistency. This is certainly one way to look at it, but I would say to challenge ourselves to do more. Each and every month, the market will develop differently, hence our profits are not gonna always be the “same” each and every month. Some month with more profits, some month with more losses. We need to have the ability to stay “consistent” no matter what the market condition is. Consistency in strategy and Trading Plan: Remember, there are many different trading strategies out there. The ability to stay “consistent” with your current trading strategy, and not jump from strategy to strategy. Even if your strategy right now isn't getting any entries available in the current market condition, while others are entering trade, you need to stay consistent with your strategy and let the probability play out. Understand no strategy can catch every move in the market. Some will catch this particular run, while others will catch other developments. Consistency in risk management: When you are at a series of drawdowns and losses, the ability to stay “consistent” with your risk management. Not risking more than 1%, not entering more than 2-3 trades at a time. No revenge trade, and/or over leverage trade. Respect your SL and honour the SL. More often traders fall into this stage while they take a number of losses and throw their risk management out the window. Consistency in mindset and emotion: When your strategy isn't playing out on a short term, the ability to stay “consistent” and not to start randomly taking trades based on FOMO, Greed and emotion. Sometimes traders get impatient and feel like waiting for setups to happen is a hassle and they don't want to wait. This is when they start to rush their trading journey and backfires on them. Consistency in your goal: Set goals for your result and progress. The ability to stay “consistent” with yourself and don't let external factors like social media, fake guru, scammers affect you and your goal. If you plan to have 5% per month profit, then don't let other people affect you in a negative way. Everyone trades differently, and with different strategy, method and approach. No need to compare and compete with others, rather, with yourself each and every year. Below I will forward some good educational videos on the above topics that we have discussed: Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading Risk Management: Combine everything you learn to prevent blowing a trading account
Education
by jojofang0901
17
The myth of risk management - Hack it :) I speak to a lot of traders, new and veteran. It's surprising to see how so many are not sure how risk is calculated and what the exposure really means in terms of P&L. This obviously is a major block in the road on the way to gaining confidence necessary to avoid losses. So let's break it down - *P&L is calculated by lot size * movement. Example: If you have 100 ounces of Gold (1 lot) - That's $100 in P&L (Profit/loss) for each $1 Gold moves in value, so if the price 1890 and you are buying 1 lot , price moves by $5 higher - That's a $500 profit ($100*$) , same thing in reverse, if it would drop by $5 that's a negative of -$500 in open P&L. Leverage decides what you are technically able to open in terms of margin used. So if your leverage on Gold is 1:100 - The value of a 1 lot trade is the price of Gold multiplied by the amount of ounces , so let's say 1890*100 = $189,000 value trade, but your leverage is 1:100, so you would only need $1,890 of used margin (189,000:100) to open the trade. But if you have 1:20 as leverage, you would need 5 times more used margin to open the trade. So a common misconception is that your risk is your leverage. That's not true. Your risk is your lot size. But if you have very high leverage , than you can open very high lot size with a small account - Which is extremely dangerous and not advised. So what does an experienced , smart trader do? No matter what his leverage is, he understands the short-term and the long-term range of movement, and opens a lot size that fits the size of his account considering the range of movement. If the account size is $100,000 , and you are buying 1 lot of Gold: The weekly range is 1840-2,000 , the short-term range is 1880-1910 - Price is 1890 So the exposure is ~$1,000 in the short-term (1%) back to the short-term support 1880 , compared to $2,000 on the short-term resistance (2%) of 1910. The long-term exposure is to 1840, meaning a $5,000 exposure 5% ($100*$50) from 1890 - but 2,000 is the top of the weekly range, meaning - $110 up ($110*100) = $11,000 (11%). So didn't really matter what the leverage is 1:20 or 1:100, what matters here is the range and the lot size. Thank you for reading! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my educational idea please like and follow! It would mean the world to me! I promise to answer all comments/questions - I encourage you to communicate :) Thank you so much for reading - Looking forward to reaching as many of you guys as I can :D -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Exactus
Why do traders mostly lose? Point of viewFor 3-5 minutes while going through this forget what you know about trading. First thing is : Let's remember our goal, every successful action/plan started with a clear goal that led the way: In our case it's profit When starting to trade seeing the numbers go up and down plays with your head and emotion quickly tempting you with the unlimited potential at your fingertips. Even experienced traders that had some lucky streaks forget that the wanted end result is simple - to be in the money, meaning, making profits consistently. In order to secure our goal of making profit we need to first start with remembering this is not a 'get rich quick' scheme and there is no magic - A big bunch of money won't fall on your head out of nowhere, at least not consistently. Now - remember this : It's a lot better to be consistently profitable than to have a series of a few winning streaks . With this in mind, it's great if you would put up a sticky note on your screen reminding this - As at times it gets hard keeping sight when numbers run wild. I see many traders look at between 5-10 crypto currencies, 3 commodities and 10 currency pairs - Deciding based on a variety of different things what to trade on every time. This way of action has no structure at all - Which makes it very hard to reach a certain target: profit. It is necessary to have focus, structure and a plan with a single minded mission: PROFIT. But not just any profit - smart profit, a profit that was a result of planned action. So how do you make a plan? The easiest way to effectively craft a well thought out plan is to focus on between 2 to max 3 instruments Learning the range, price action and tendencies of 2-3 instruments can be done within a few weeks going through 1h, 4h and weekly time-frames and determining the short-term and long-term projections of each of the 2-3 instruments. Once you start seeing the patterns and understanding the price action continue by implementing what you learned on the instruments on a demo account testing a possible strategy that relies on clear idea of what to do with every possible scenario. You may not get it right with the first strategy, so try others until you find one that shows consistent results - while mastering the 2-3 instruments you have chosen and continuing to following up on a daily basis on relevant news, changes in trends on short-term and long-term projections. For me - Because I've dedicated years trading and following Gold and WTI , learning how and why it moves - I prefer trading a swing trading strategy, keeping trades open between 3 days to 2 weeks usually, this puts my bigger picture understanding of the instruments into true effect The difficulties you will find while searching for your strategy are - *Greed *Fear *Lack of patience *Lack of discipline in plan Don't let them in - Remember your plan and one and only goal : consistent profit! Thank you for reading, Let me know what you think and what you would like to hear more about :D
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Exactus
3
The basics of back-testing (HOW TO)Hey Traders, Today I wanted to follow on from the fantastic amount of comments that we are receiving from the previous video, "stop strategy jumping." It seems that so many of you took a whole heap of value from that video and for that I am very thankful and to everyone who reached out and told their story or let me know that it really touched them. As highly requested, I wanted to run through a basic way to start getting the grips with strategy back-testing. How can we go about back-testing our strategies to ensure that they are profitable for us in the long run? Take a look, have a listen and tune in. Set up an excel sheet the way I do and get back testing. There's only one way to do this, and it is to do the hard work. Let me know what you guys find. I can go more in depth in the future, but for now. It seems like most people wanted to get to grips with the absolute basics, which is what I'm going to show you today. If you have any questions at all, please the comment section is the place to be. As always, have a fantastic trading week and a fantastic weekend traders. I'll see you very soon.
Education
by the5erstrading
12
The PIK Trading Strategy & Key Lessons for Day Traders!Hey Traders! Happy Sunday! In this video, which ends a little earlier as I didn't know videos have a limit, we go over a few key points, starting from the PIK trading strategy which you guys will hear about much more over the next few days, mindset, motivation and guidance is covered too! When it comes to the PIK trading strategy, we go over the indicators that are used, price action and key levels! The video isn't our best one, but it does have plenty of value and we hope you enjoy it! Thanks and all the best!
OANDA:DE30EUREducation
by PrimedGroup
How to use Inside bar strategyInside bar strategy is one of my personal favourites, in this section I will detail how and why I trade Inside bars to deliver more profits during a trading week. Now In my personal opinion any non profitable trader should be chomping at the bit to learn this strategy as it has the potential to really aid your trading journey. So lets breakdown what finding an Inside bar means... So above me here is the recent rally from the pair GBP/JPY , I have highlighted a few of the inside bars but if you look close enough you will see more, So an Inside bar on the daily is telling us the day before we had a strong rally this can be called candle (1), so Candle 1 is a rally, Candle 2 is inside the range of candle 1, what this means is that on lower timeframes we have seen consolidation, Price hasnt broken the high of candle 1 or the low of candle 1, so when candle 3 breaks the high of candles 1 and 2, price rallies to our target. So the entry comes after the high of candle 1 and 2 broken, you use a stop loss under the low of candle 2, and you aim for 1:1 risk reward. When is the best time to trade these candles? In strong rallies you will see this set up form alot , the reason for this is because in strong rallies, we often see rally-consolidation-rally. Typically this strategy will win around 70% of its trades and is great for entering rallying or depreciating currencies, I hope you guys can put it to use like I have over the years! any questions please feel free too comment below (This is not trading analysis this is purely to demonstrate how inside bar works and how you can use it in your trading). Enjoy the weekend!
Education
by ZenFlo
LET'S GET REAL: Stop Strategy Jumping!Hey Traders, This one is going to be a little bit different, a little bit deeper and a little bit harder to listen to rather than usual technical analysis. I recommend you sit down and listen to this. Have a think whether it relates to you or whether you found yourself in this position, or even if you've gone through this position and share your experience on how you go through it. A lot of traders struggle with their strategy, jumping from aspects of trading and that's why so many educators out there make a lot of money off of them. It is time to stop. In this video I outlay a challenge that I put to all the traders who may find themselves in this position to sit down and to thoroughly test their current or previous strategies and understand them on a deeper level. No more jumping around, no more looking outwards. Let's start looking inwards. Let's see the data that we have handed to us and what we can do to improve that data. If you enjoyed this video, please leave a comment. Leave a like, if we do get enough likes and comments, I will make a Part 2 on how to go about this with a more depth avenue while using different resources. As always, have a fantastic training week.
Education
by the5erstrading
222
HOW-TO: Accumulation StrategyIn this idea I will make an in-depth tutorial on how to use the Accumulation Strategy and how to automate it. █ PRESENTATION The strategy is in the form of an invite-only script providing backtesting and alerts. Here is a link to the script page: Goals  • Steady profits. Smalls profits over time and no drawdown as long as you don't sell in loss.  • Peace of mind. It is meant to be a "set it up once and let it run for a while" automated strategy.  • No loss. Never sell in loss. Drawbacks  • Small profits. No leverage, just spot trading.  • Lengthy trades. Trades can take up to several days or even weeks in worst case scenario. We will see how to avoid that. Strategy  • Use volatility. Take advantage of small waves in the market.  • Buy the dips. Use a combination of technical indicators to buy bottoms or oversold prices.  • Accumulation. Buy small amounts several times as price moves to better position yourself.  • Take profit from total volume. Sell everything once price is in profit at the configured percentage value. █ BACKTESTING Backtesting is the process of creating a strategy. Finding a good pair  • By Market Cap. Take a category you are comfortable with (DeFi, Metaverse, DAO, etc) then look at coins in the top 10 market cap.  • Volatility. The more volatile the coin is, the better.  • Ascending/Sideways trend. This is where the strategy will work the best. We will see just below how to filter off bear markets.  • Pick a timeframe. Usually from 5m to 30m, can be higher or lower. I look at the average bar, I like something around 0.5-1% bar height, the chart should not have too much noise, otherwise go higher timeframe. Though not too high, since we want to take advantage of the volatility. Build your entries You first have to create "entries" that will then end up being a buy signal, after passing through some optional filters.  • Entry settings    • Go Long/Go Short     The indicator allows to trade both sides of the market. In these examples, I will only go long-only for simplicity.    • Max active deals     This is the maximum consecutive buy signals allowed for the strategy. Example with 10: the strategy will buy up to 10 times until take profit is hit.    • Minimum bar delay between deals     Puts a minimum delay between each entry signal, in bars.    • Minimum price difference in % between deals     Sets a minimum price percentage between each entry signal. Leave at 0 to disable.  • STOCH & RSI entries   Creates entries when the RSI or STOCH crosses below a configurable value. The length and resolution of the oscillators are configurable.  • Other entries   Signals using some of my other custom indicators are BUILT-IN:    • Top & Bottoms    • Higher lows, Lower lows    • RSI Divergences Entries are combined using a OR logical gate. I usually go with RSI and STOCH entries on higher timeframe using the resolution input, then add Top & Bottoms or Higher lows if I feel like it needs more entries. Once you have chosen a combination of entries, let's move on to the filters.  • Trend Filter   You can pick a trendline from a list, usually a simple EMA 200 will do the trick. Using slope change or price cross, it will filter off entries if the market wave is bearish, thus avoiding taking risky trades.  • MTF Trend Filter   The same thing, but higher timeframe. It is used to filter with the market wave, meaning the more global trend. It is a good habit to combine the 2 trend lines to drastically reduce the risk. The Adaptive Tilson T3 is one of my favorites, combined with the CROSSOVER condition.  • RSI filter   Useful with entries other than RSI to filter overbought entries. Use a higher timeframe to filter more aggressively. I would advice to use all 3 filters if you can. It will prevent getting into lengthy trades as we will see below. Adjusting  • Backtest parameters   First you should go to the backtest parameters tab. Here is what is used in this example:    • Initial capital: 1000 €    • Order size: 100 € (the max deals is 10 here, total deals should not exceed initial capital)    • Pyramiding: 10 (the number of max deals)    • Commission: 0.075 % (Binance spot trading)  • Take Profit    Configure the take profit, in price %. I usually go with something from 1 to 4 %. In some cases, activating the trailing TP can be interesting.  • Backtest results   In addition to the strategy tester, the indicator has a backtest panel containing useful information. Here are some of it:    • Net Profit (% and fixed)     Useful to see how volatile a pair is compared to others.    • Avg # Bars in a deal     Average number of bars a trade can take to be completed. < 100 - great, > 100 - can be improved, > 200 - bad    • Avg # Days in a deal     Same information but in days.    • Max # days in a deal     Maximum number of days a trade took to be completed. < 30 - great, > 30 - can be improved, > 60 - bad Example of settings that can be improved: The Avg # bars and Max # Days in a deal are flashing red and orange. It means it can be improved. By adding the 3 filters, increasing the stoch entries timeframe and reducing the take profit to 3%, we are getting a much more secure strategy: All the settings are in green, we know that over 421 days, the maximum days a trade took is 13.78, and a trade takes 1 day in average. █ AUTOMATION When you subscribe on my website, you unlock access to the indicators but also an automation system for Binance. The system is using the indicator alerts to automatically place orders on Binance using their SPOT Trading API. You can find a tutorial here . Create a bot The first step is to create a bot for your strategy. Make sure you have enough capital in your account for the strategy. Set the order size/quantity with the same value as in the indicator backtest parameters. Create the alert I recommend to create one chart layout per strategy. Once you are done setting up the indicator, set the alert messages. You will find the text fields at the bottom of the indicator input settings. You will typically need to fill "Long Entry" with the buy message, and "Long Take Profit" with the sell message. Once you have done that, save your chart. Click add alert on the indicator. Select the condition "Alert() function calls only". Tick "Webhook URL" and set the URL. It can be the one from my bot system or if you use another bot system with webhooks it will work too. Give your alert a name and click create. Make sure the alert is created in the alert tab. The alert will save the indicator, settings and timeframe at the moment you create it. If you decide to change an indicator setting, you must remake the alert. Fees If you trade on Binance, I recommend to enable BNB Spot trading fees, and always have a few BNB on your account to pay for the fees. That way, you can use a sell 100% quantity order without needing to take fees into account, unless you are using the strategy to trade BNB. In this case, use something like sell 99% in your sell message. Supervise Once your strategy is running, you can supervise it in the strategy tester in real time, in the alert logs and in the bot logs. ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ █ SCRIPT ACCESS Indicator and automation tools access can be purchased on my website. The link is in my signature below. █ SAMPLE USE CASES I will update this HOW-TO idea whenever I backtest a new pair, sharing the configuration and a link to a shared chart that you can copy and edit yourself. Example on MANA/USDT: Link to the chart: www.tradingview.com Thanks for reading. More to come below.
Education
by cyatophilum
2
How To : Chart Formations Critical Second Top & Bottom Entry Hi Traders and Investors This video is a follow up from my previous posting dealing with shifts of momentum. This time we are looking to add an additional synergy - the second touch in a chart formation - which can be found in Double Tops, Double Bottoms and head shoulder formations. Correctly using the second touch on the chart formations has allowed me to avoid many mistakes in my evaluating my trades and I hope that it will help you in evaluating your trades. When you look at the Double Top and Double Bottom chart formations, you will notice that high frequency trading and algorithms trading will often create the formation of a second top to the same level as the first top or slightly higher by taking stops pilling at the first top . At this point, you want to wait for the synergies to come into play and use your tools to look for a shift in momentum on the 2nd top touch see video. Waiting for the shift in momentum to occurs after the second touch, is a critical piece of of information that will prevent you from taking trades that are likely to be stopped out on the first test. Hope it helps have a great week end Marc
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by PowerIndicators
9
Moving Average Cross Over StrategyWe start by creating a visual for when all moving averages are in order and across the 200 moving average . In this example, I have used a vertical line in the colour of our bias direction, Long(Green) , when this condition has been met. We now have an increased confidence by filtering out trade setups that do not meet our bias giving a higher probability and focus. Levels of previous resistance give us a price that we can enter the market by turning into a new level of support . In this example I have highlighted this with a red arrow located on the left hand side. Now we have a trading bias and a methodology to set price restrictions to enter the market, we can now trade only long positions and trade setups . In this example I have highlighted long opportunities that have been triggered with arrows in green located on the right hand side. Entry points can be executed on either the daily , 4hour or 1hour charts depending on risk and trading style preference. Please note - Lower time frames may generate more signals which presents more risk.
Education
by Youza