Get started

Strategy!

GOLD MACD StrategyRules for engagement: - Price must be below the 200SMA - MACD must cross above the 0 line (higher the better) - Price must then cross over short term SMAs (5&8) - Stops at previous high - Take Profits at the target low Here we saw price break down to create a new lower low and sweeping previous support. Price on the daily has broken below the 21 moving average and price is close to crossing the 200 moving average on the 4hr chart. Using the FIB we can set an expected target entry zone between the 382 and 618 zones which also aligns with previous support which could turn to resistance. We see price stall here and we look for entries short. two entries identified using the above rules with a 130SL and a 400+TP.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Youza
What's in a Trading Plan? Here's All You Need to Include.Ready, set… plan? In this guide, we discuss why you need to plan your trading before trading your plan. Let’s roll. Table of Contents: »Importance of a Trading Plan »The Successful Trading Plan Doesn't Exi... »What's in a Typical Trading Day? »Markets, Strategies and Styles »Summary Venturing into trading without a plan is akin to setting sail on the ocean without a compass. Or taking the leap without looking first 😉. We can keep the metaphors rolling but if there’s one thing you must remember from this word salad of an article, it’s this: success in trading is possible with a plan. Without a plan, not so much. In this guide, we'll talk about the importance of creating a trading plan, what you should include in it, and how to follow it. 📍 Importance of a Trading Plan A trading plan is not just a list of dos and don’ts; it's the roadmap to trading success. Here's why it matters: ➡️ Streamlines Your Actions : Much like a roadmap, a trading plan outlines your objectives, time frames, strategies, and risk management techniques, and offers a clear path forward. ➡️ Limits Emotional Swings : By defining rules and parameters in advance, a trading plan helps to keep emotions in check, limiting impulsive actions that could lead to financial pitfalls. ➡️ Fosters Discipline : Sticking to a plan holds you accountable for your actions and allows you to see where you jump out of your rule book and into undisciplined FOMO-driven pump-chasing revenge trading. 📍 The Successful Trading Plan Doesn't Exi... Many traders believe that you can be successful by buying and selling random selections of stocks, forex pairs, or commodities. However, the reality is that the most — if not all — successful traders have one thing in common: a well-defined trading plan. Here's what makes for a successful trading plan: ☝🏽 Adaptability : A successful trading plan is not rigid but flexible, allowing for adjustments in response to changing market conditions. ☝🏽 Consistency : A plan helps you stay on track toward your goals as a trader, allowing you to stick to predefined rules and strategies, especially when things get hot and volatile. ☝🏽 Continuous Improvement : A successful trading plan is a work in progress. The more time you use it, the higher probability you will have to refine it as you drift along diverse assets, all swayed by different factors. 📍 What's in a Typical Trading Day? A typical trading day is a blend of preparation, execution, and reflection. And while you should leave room for new ideas, fresh approaches, and some surprises, there are mainstay components that you need to have in your trading plan. 📰 Reading the News : Staying in the know is always a good idea. For many successful traders, the first thing to do is check what’s the latest on the news front. Known as fundamental analysis, reading the news and doing your research will help you get a sense of investor sentiment. Moreover, you can stay ahead of the curve and anticipate big market moves by following the economic calendar. Lots of those sharp swings you see in forex or stocks are caused by regular data dumps such as the monthly US nonfarm payrolls report. The Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates or the monthly Consumer Price Index are also keys to anticipating volatility. And what better place to follow all that’s moving markets than the TradingView News section ? 📈 Following the Charts : if you’re here, this one won’t be too new to you. Chart reading, known as technical analysis, is one of the oldest ways to analyze anything — from stocks to crypto and even frozen orange juice. Think of a chart as your trading canvas. It’s your space to be creative, draft ideas, look for technical patterns and formations, and anticipate potential moves. Observing the chart and watching how prices behave will help you spot where a trend may form, extend, or reverse. Some of the most popular technical formations include double tops and bottoms, head and shoulders, cup and handle, and more. And some of the most popular technical indicators include the Simple Moving Average (SMA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Fibonacci sequence. All of that, and much more, is readily available for you almost anywhere you click on the TradingView platform. ⚒️ Work on Your Skills : Trading doesn’t have to glue you to the screen in constant monitoring of every blip. If you don’t see anything to trade, don’t trade just for the sake of it. Sometimes the best trading position is no position at all. Instead, use some of your idle time to build out your knowledge base. Grab some books on technical analysis or trading psychology. Or watch interviews of successful traders and investors and gain that educational edge to help you become a more aware, informed, and confident trader. 🏖️ Take a Break : Not everything you do needs to be related to productivity gains and trading improvement. Stare into space or read a great novel. Take your mind off trading and unwind, let the steam off, and recharge your batteries. Go out, enjoy a walk or do some people-watching. Taking time to zone out every now and then will help you get back to trading sharper, smarter, and more balanced. 📍 Markets, Strategies and Styles The world of trading is as diverse as it is dynamic, offering a flurry of markets, strategies, and trading styles to explore. Here's a glimpse into the landscape: 💹 Markets : Traders can choose from a variety of financial markets, including stocks , forex , and cryptocurrencies , each with its unique characteristics and opportunities. When you set out to create your trading plan, think carefully whether you want your portfolio to be concentrated into any one market or asset class. Or maybe you’d like to go for a diverse approach to trading and pull in assets from several markets. Knowing what your asset preference is will help you phase out markets so they don’t distract you. 🎯 Strategies : From technical analysis to fundamental analysis, you can adopt various strategies to identify trading opportunities and manage risk, ranging from trend following to mean reversion. News trading is a popular approach to markets as it allows you to bet on economic reports, geopolitical events, central bank updates, and more. On the other hand, technical traders tend to stick to the chart in efforts to gauge price movements and trends. Every chart tells a story. Deciphering it is the tough part. 🌈 Styles : Trading styles are equally important and they’re all tied to a specific time frame of holding your positions. If you’re more into short-term trading, you may pick scalping and target a few pips of gains before jumping out of your trade. Day trading and swing trading are two popular time-sensitive trading strategies that you may want to explore when building out your trading plan. 📍 Summary Your trading plan should be exactly that — yours. Tailor it to your specific goals, risk orientation, asset preference, and find out how it stacks up against market conditions. That way, you can navigate the markets with confidence and direction, instead of letting markets sway your decision making and lead you into uncharted waters. Embark on your trading journey armed with a well-crafted plan, and let it be your roadmap to trading success. 📣With that said, let us know in the comments: do you have a trading plan? What’s the most important element of it and are you always sticking to it?
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
40
Strategy: Butterfly Continuation Failure. This strategy is intended to be a method to help to differentiate a pullback from reversal. Here we're using the butterfly pattern which is a continuation pattern, but the failure of this continuation pattern can mean the failure of the trend. It's a very useful signal that can be used on all time frames. You can find great examples of this before crashes (Such as 2007 - 2008) and also near the lows of major downtrends. The strategy also works great for day trading. Spotting the breaking of intraday trends. Usually upon the breaking of this pattern the momentum picks up. Meaning a bearish break leads to capitulation and bullish break leads to parabolic move. Very useful for spotting reversals and a method for trailing stop losses. ---- This is a counter strategy to the butterfly continuation.
NYSE:LOWEducation
by holeyprofit
2
Strategy: The Butterfly Reversal. Harmonics are a very useful tool for gaining insight into possible reversal levels after strong trends. "M" shapes are often found at the bottom of trends and "W" shapes at the top. Most often these fit into the rules of the butterfly reversal. A defining characteristic of the butterfly is the final leg (D leg) is always a very strong leg. It's a strong and scary false breakout. Comes out of a range and always tends to look like trend continuation. In the times the butterfly reversal will work, the strong move is terminal. It'll run just far enough to take out the stops and bring in breakout traders and then have a spectacular reversal. Another trait of harmonics is the reversal is at least as strong as the move heading into it, often stronger. Since they have as a defining feature very strong swings at different points, when we have large chart harmonics these are often also accompanied by news that drives the fast moves. In the times they work, harmonics are one of the most accurate forms of forward looking signals for a reversal. However, it should be noted that trading harmonics as a sole strategy against a trend is not expected to have a winning outcome. Typically you'd expected to hit about 1/3 winners on 1:3 RR and come out around even. That's if you do it really well. Otherwise, it's a losing game. Lots of "M" shapes form in a downtrend and lots of "W" shapes form in an uptrend. The formation of these does not always mean reversal, but when there are reversals; you often see these structures signalling them. Harmonic butterflies are a classic false breakout / stop hunt pattern and very useful to know about.
NYSE:LOWEducation
by holeyprofit
1
Strategy: The 1.61 Head Fake Strategy. The 1.61 head fake strategy is intended to give early signals of where a high/low might be and be an early tell on the potential turn of the trend. This strategy can be used for both pullbacks and reversals. When traded as a correction, this strategy usually is successful in the forecasting and trading of the end of Elliot wave 5 heading into the ABC. Absolute highs and lows can also be made with this 1.61 head fake. Breaking of the 2.20 fib triggers failure of this strategy.
NYSE:LOWEducation
by holeyprofit
Strategy: 76 Correction Trend Continuation. The 76 correction strategy aims to pick up optimal continuation trades into large retracements. It's a trend following strategy that aims to enter into strong counter trend moves to a 76% retracement of the previous trend leg. This strategy usually performs best when combined with Elliot wave. Waiting for there to be a full impulsive leg in 5 waves followed by a big ABC correction. The strategy aims to pick up trades into the "C" point in such a correction. With a default minimum risk:reward of 1:3 the strategy is expected to breakeven on win rates of 35% or higher.
NYSE:LOWEducation
by holeyprofit
2
STOP LOSS more important than you think!Set STOP-LOSS and stop your loss! The Vital Role of Stop-Loss in Forex and Crypto Trading In the fast-paced realms of forex and cryptocurrency trading, where market volatility is the norm, the integration of a stop-loss strategy holds paramount importance. A stop-loss order acts as a critical risk management tool, shielding traders from excessive losses and preventing impulsive decision-making in turbulent market conditions. However, its significance goes beyond risk mitigation; stop-loss orders also play a pivotal role in guiding traders towards selecting optimal entry points. Let's delve into why incorporating stop-loss orders into your trading approach is essential for achieving long-term success. Fostering Discipline and Psychological Resilience One of the primary rationales for the necessity of stop-loss lies in its capacity to nurture discipline and psychological resilience among traders. By establishing predetermined exit points, traders not only manage risk effectively but also cultivate a disciplined mindset crucial for navigating the complexities of financial markets. Adhering to stop-loss levels compels traders to conduct thorough analyses of entry points, thereby refining their decision-making processes. This disciplined approach not only mitigates the influence of emotional trading but also fosters rationality and consistency, pivotal attributes for sustainable trading success. Empowering Effective Risk Management Practices Effective risk management forms the bedrock of successful trading endeavors. Without the implementation of stop-loss mechanisms, traders expose themselves to the peril of unchecked losses, which could potentially erode their entire trading capital. Stop-loss orders serve as a bulwark against such scenarios, capping losses at predetermined levels. By calculating appropriate position sizes relative to stop-loss distances, traders ensure that each trade aligns with their risk tolerance and overarching trading strategy. Moreover, the process of setting stop-loss levels inherently prompts traders to meticulously assess entry points, reinforcing the importance of selecting optimal trade setups. Optimizing Risk-Reward Dynamics An often-overlooked aspect by novice traders is the critical importance of maintaining favorable risk-to-reward ratios. Trading without stop-loss not only compromises risk management but also distorts the risk-reward dynamics of each trade. Well-placed stop-loss orders enable traders to define risk upfront, enabling them to seek out trades with favorable risk-reward profiles. By aligning potential losses with anticipated gains, traders can pursue asymmetric returns, where profit potential outweighs risk undertaken. This strategic alignment not only enhances profitability but also instills confidence in traders, empowering them to execute trades with conviction. Conclusion In conclusion, the integration of stop-loss orders into your forex and crypto trading endeavors is indispensable for cultivating discipline, managing risk effectively, and optimizing profitability. Beyond serving as a risk management tool, stop-loss orders nurture psychological resilience, refine decision-making processes, and uphold the principles of disciplined trading. Moreover, stop-loss implementation inherently encourages traders to scrutinize entry points meticulously, reinforcing the importance of selecting optimal trade setups. Therefore, traders must recognize the pivotal role of stop-loss in safeguarding capital and fostering long-term success in the dynamic world of financial markets.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by traderstube
10 EMA strategy ^BEST TREND-FOLLOWING STRATEGY^Welcome! Today, I'm excited to share with you one of the most effective trend-following strategies that is adaptable to any timeframe and asset class ( OANDA:XAUUSD , NSE:NIFTY , FX:USDCHF ), boasting a remarkable risk/reward ratio of up to 1:10. Let's dive right in. As mentioned, this strategy revolves around the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), specifically the 10-period EMA. For those unfamiliar, the EMA places greater emphasis on recent price data compared to a Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing a dynamic view of market trends. When the price on your chart is above the 10 EMA, it signifies a bullish trend; conversely, when the 10 EMA is above the price, it indicates a bearish trend. Let's illustrate with an example: Imagine a bullish trend with four consecutive green candles followed by a red candle. Our entry point occurs when this red candle, the trigger candle, fails to touch the 10 EMA. Subsequently, when a green candle crosses above the high of the trigger candle, we enter the trade. Setting our stop loss (SL) just below the EMA line beneath the trigger candle, we establish our take profit (TP) based on a risk/reward ratio, starting at 1:2 and potentially reaching an impressive 1:10. Trailing the 10 EMA line allows us to stay in the trade longer, albeit experiencing initial stop-loss hits. However, perseverance reveals the strategy's efficacy over time. Now, for short positions, such as during a downtrend characterized by three red candles followed by a green candle, our entry occurs when the low of the green candle is breached by the subsequent red candle. Setting the SL just above the EMA line above the trigger candle and TP based on the risk/reward ratio, we execute the trade. For those interested in trailing stops, there are two options: firstly, trailing along the 10 EMA line; secondly, utilizing the Average True Range (ATR) for algorithmic trading enthusiasts. With this strategy's flexibility and potential for significant returns, it offers traders a robust approach to navigating diverse market conditions. ***Here are 2 examples of Long & Short: Long position in BINANCE:SOLUSDT www.tradingview.com Short in FOREXCOM:EURCAD It's crucial not only to grasp the concept of this strategy but also to put it into practice. 💼 Start by implementing it with small capital or utilize paper trading, which platforms like TradingView offer. 📝 Additionally, don't hesitate to experiment. For instance, try using an 11-period EMA and assess its effectiveness. You might find that it better suits your trading style and objectives. 🧪💡 Remember, trading is a journey of discovery! 🚀 Don't be afraid to explore new strategies and techniques along the way. 🌟 Like (boost), follow, comment, and share this strategy to spread the knowledge and empower fellow traders! 📈🚀👍 For the optimal TradingView experience, upgrade now to unlock the platform's full potential: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by smarttrader012
How to Use Stop Loss Orders in Trading?Stop loss order is the order that automatically closes your trade once it reaches a specified price target. Learn all about it here. Table of Contents: 🔹What Is a Stop Loss Order? 🔹Why Stop Loss Orders Matter? 🔹Setting Stop Loss Levels 🔹Types of Stop Loss Orders 🔹Adjusting Your Stop Loss Orders 🔹Summary In trading, reducing risks is oftentimes all that matters to achieving success. One of the essential tools to protect your investments from steep or unexpected losses is the stop loss order. Understanding how to use stop loss orders can unlock your path to profitability by allowing you to balance your risk and reward ratio. In other words, with the right stop loss setup, you can shoot for asymmetrical risk returns by keeping your drawdown small and letting your profits run. Let’s dive into the exciting world of trading and see how stop loss orders can be your greatest ally in trading. 📍 What Is a Stop Loss Order? A stop loss order is an essential risk management tool used by traders to limit potential losses on a trade. By using a stop loss order, you instruct your broker to automatically sell the asset you’re holding when it reaches a predetermined price level that is below your purchase price, or entry. A stop loss order allows you to control your losses and protect your investments so you don’t have to sit glued to the screen all the time. 📍 Why Stop Loss Orders Matter Stop loss orders play a big role in risk management. These easy-to-set trading tools help traders stick to predefined risk tolerance levels by limiting the amount of money they are willing to lose on any given trade. Without a stop loss order in place, traders may give in to emotional decision-making during periods of market volatility, leading to potential losses. If you have a hard time cutting your losses If you have a hard time cutting your losses when —ok, we get it, you're a bigshot— IF positions go against you, setting a stop loss when you enter the market will do the hard work for you. ➡️ Risk Management: One of the primary reasons stop loss orders are essential is because they help traders manage risk effectively. This is crucial in volatile markets where prices can fluctuate rapidly, as it prevents significant losses that could otherwise occur if trades were left unattended. ➡️ Emotional Control: Trading can evoke strong emotions such as fear and greed, which can lead to irrational decision-making. Without a stop loss order in place, traders may be tempted to hold onto losing positions in the hope that the market will reverse in their favor. ➡️ Peace of Mind: Knowing that there is a safety net in place can provide traders with peace of mind. Stop loss orders allow you to do your thing in the market without obsessively watching charts and tickers. Set your stop loss orders and focus on other aspects of your market study like catching up on the latest market-moving news and analysis . ➡️ Preventing Catastrophic Losses: In extreme market conditions, prices can experience sudden and significant declines. Without stop loss orders, traders risk experiencing catastrophic losses that could wipe out a significant portion of their capital. ➡️ Enforcing Discipline: Successful trading requires discipline and adherence to a well-defined trading plan. Stop loss orders help enforce discipline by striving to ensure that traders stick to their predetermined risk management rules. If trading is about discipline and consistency, then stop loss orders are the stepping stone to success. 📍 Setting Stop Loss Levels Choosing the appropriate stop loss level is a critical aspect of using stop loss orders effectively. Traders should consider various factors, including their risk tolerance, investment objectives, market conditions, and the volatility of the asset being traded. A common approach is to set the stop loss below a significant support level or a recent low in an uptrend (if you have a long position) and above a significant resistance level or a recent high in a downtrend (if you have a short position). Example: Suppose you purchase shares of a company called X (not Elon Musk’s privately held X Corp., which he created by rebranding Twitter) at $50 per share. You estimate that a 5% decline in the stock price would indicate a potential trend reversal. Therefore, you set your stop loss order at $47.50 per share to limit your potential loss to 5% of your investment. 📍 Types of Stop Loss Orders There are several types of stop loss orders that traders can utilize, each with its own special characteristics. The most common types include: ➡️ Market Stop Loss: a type of stop loss order that triggers a market order to sell the instrument at the prevailing market price once the stop loss level is reached. ➡️ Stop Limit: with a stop limit order, you have to deal with two types of prices. The first one is the price that will trigger a sell and the limit price. But instead of converting your order into a sell based on current market prices, you set a limit price. ➡️ Trailing Stop Loss: A trailing stop loss order is dynamically adjusted based on the movement of the instrument’s price. It allows traders to lock in profits while giving the trade room to move in their favor. Example: You purchase shares of a big tech company at $100 per share, and the stock price then rises to $120 per share. You set a trailing stop loss order with a 10% trail. If the stock price declines by 10% from its peak, the trailing stop loss order will trigger, selling the shares at prevailing market prices. 📍 Adjusting Stop Loss Orders While setting stop loss orders is essential, monitoring and adjusting them as market conditions evolve is equally important. Traders should regularly reassess their stop loss levels to account for changes in volatility, price action, and overall market sentiment. Additionally, as profits accumulate, trailing stop loss orders should be adjusted to protect gains and minimize potential losses. 📍 Summary In conclusion, stop loss orders are one of the most essential and effective tools for traders seeking to manage risk and preserve and grow capital in the challenging world of trading. By understanding how to use stop loss orders effectively, you can rein in emotional decision-making, protect your investments, and increase your chances of long-term success. Whether you're a novice or an experienced trader, integrating stop loss orders into your trading strategy is a smart approach to navigate the twists and turns of the financial markets. Remember, trading involves inherent risks, but with proper risk management techniques like stop loss orders, you can tilt the odds of success in your favor. ❓Do you use stop loss orders when trading? Which type ? Let us know in the comments ⬇️
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
12
HOW-TO: Accumulation Strategy 2024What if instead of buying a stock, crypto, currency only once and holding until we are in profit, we split our strategy capital and buy several times, until the total is in profit ? Yes, that is DCA you’d say. Ok, but what if instead of buying at predetermined intervals, we bought at oversold RSI, or on a double bottom, for example ? That’s the idea behind the Accumulation Strategy, which I’m going to explain in detail in this article. █  Simple Example The strategy comes with several features, and the easiest way to explain them is through examples. The Max Active Deals input allows to limit how many times the strategy can trigger a buy in a trade, just like the pyramiding setting. It can go up to 100. In this example, the strategy has 10 max active deals. and is using the RSI feature to buy when RSI crosses below a configurable threshold, here 25. Note: to get stronger signals, the RSI time frame has been set to 1 hour, since the chart is in a 30 min time frame. In this trade, the strategy bought 8 times (yellow arrows) before selling at take profit, but it could have bought twice more. █  Take Profit Feature Customisable in the input tab, this feature allows you to set one or multiple take profit(s). You can set the value in either %, pips, or Auto mode. To create multiple targets, increase the Number of take profit and set the Step between each TP. In our previous example, instead of just one, I set 3 TPs with 1% value and a step of 1. The strategy will sell progressively at a quantity split even at each take profit, until the last TP is hit. Note: Using multiple take profit is often used to improve risk management in trading. █  Built-in Entry Options The strategy comes with several built-in indicators, such as the RSI that we’ve seen, but here’s the list: MTF RSI cross, RSI divergences MTF Stochastic cross MTF Bollinger Bands cross Top & Bottoms Double Top & bottoms Higher/Lower Lows/Highs Custom External Entries If you want to use ANY external indicator from the TradingView library and use it as an entry signal, you can! For example, let’s use the Squeeze Momentum Indicator by Lazybear. After adding it to the chart, we select the first plot which is the histogram. Then we select the condition “crossover” and “0”. It will create a buy when the histogram turns green. █  Trend Filters In trading, we try to avoid going against the global trend. The strategy comes with several built-in trendlines, MTF, or you can use ANY external trendline from the TV library. The strategy offers other built-in filters such as volume, overbought in range/trending market, or flat market entry filters. █  Stop Loss The stop loss can be turned on/off. You can set the value in either %, pips, ATR or Auto mode. Note: When to use a Stop Loss? Using a stop kind of defeats the purpose of the strategy, but it can be useful if you plan to trade highly volatile and risky coins (remember LUNA ?) That is why the option is there. █  How to use the strategy The indicator access is unlocked by subscribing on my website. See the links below this article. █  Setting up a strategy You can set up a strategy on your own chart in just one click using the preconfigured charts I will share below, or you can simply add the indicator yourself and play with the settings. Backtesting Backtesting is automatically done in the Strategy Tester Tab. Creating Alerts Once you have your strategy setup on the chart: 1 - Set the alert message in the indicator inputs (scroll to the bottom, you will find an “alert’ section) 2 - Save your chart and do not touch it anymore unless you want to update your alert (optional but recommended) 3 - Create an alert on Cyatophilum Accumulation Strategy, using the option “alert() function calls only” (this is really important!) Only one alert is needed to handle all the strategy events! (entry, take profit, stop loss, etc.) Even a free TradingView user can create a strategy! Automation The subscription that I offer also comes with Automation bots using the Binance spot trading API . Important: if you wish to automate your strategies, make sure your TradingView account has access to alert webhook notifications . That’s it for this tutorial! Pretty easy right? No, I know it can get complicated at first. 😣 That is why I make preconfigured charts. Once you have access, click on the chart link, then click “copy”, then “save” your “layout” to get your own chart that you can use and edit. Enjoy! █  Preconfigured charts BTC/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com ETH/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com BNB/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com MATIC/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com EGLD/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com
Education
by cyatophilum
Backtesting Settings For the Logical Trading Indicator V.1Since creating the Logical Trading Indicator, my trading game has changed in a big and positive way. But I have been curious as to how I can make an automated strategy with it and how much it makes. The Logical Trading Indicator has many different signals and alerts that you can use to create your own trading strategies that work best for your trading plan. Over the weekend, I have been tinkering around with the base strategy of buy when I get a buy signal and sell when i get a sell signal. I have played around with both a long and short strategy mainly focusing on the BTCUSD pairing. I am really doing this to help me find the best settings possible for each time frame and letting the strategy do the backtesting for me. This really helps me to figure out how it does over the past year or so. So far, at least for BTC, a LONG only strategy has yielded the best results. Mainly because I couldn't get it to fire shorts the way I wanted it to. This is where machines still need some human guidance, as well as your trades, haha. Dialing It In What I am doing is going into different timeframes and finding the best settings for the ATR multiple and length in combination with basis length and the long period moving average. I have been recording the results primarily on the 5 minute as well as the 1 HR and 4 HR time frames because those are the main time frames I focus on. I have played around with different variations of functions, but TradingView can't seem to get things to fire on the strategy the same way I can get the main indicator to fire. But based on this, I set the strategy to a simple LONG only strategy where it buys when you get a BUY signal and then closes when you get a SELL signal, with the addition of a stop loss function that let's me set a stop loss percentage to provide some additional risk management to help with the drawdown percentage. In this backtest, the strategy was not taking the 'Take Profit' signals into account, or when I tried to include them in the logic, they weren't firing properly, so I kept it simple with just the BUY and SELL signals with a stop loss. If you used the built in take profit signals, you can do even better than these results. On the 5 minute time frame, the most profitable settings ended up being: ATR Multiple: 3 ATR Length: 1 Basis Length: 15 EMA Long Period Moving Average: 50 SMA These settings yielded over 100% profit for the backtesting period, which is about a year. For the 1 HR time frame, the winning settings were: ATR Multiple: 3 ATR Length: 6 Basis Length: 20 EMA Long Period Moving Average: 100 SMA These settings yielded over 200% profit for the backtesting period with almost 60% win rate! Again, you could maximize this even more by utilizing the take profit signals and using short trades when the trend is right and if you are trading on a futures exchange. I have been doing more spot trading on DEXs lately, so I have been trading long only lately. The Importance of Backtesting I cannot stress this enough, you have to back test your strategies to make sure they are going to be profitable. This can be done manually by going back in time on the charts and finding all of your signals and seeing if it was profitable, or you can create your own strategy like this using TradingView's Pinescript and let the program do the backtesting for you. However you do your backtesting, just make sure it gets done! You don't want to just think an indicator or a strategy works, you want to KNOW it works! If not, you could be throwing your money down the drain. This is Only A Test- But Great For Info Gathering I am only using this strategy for my own backtesting purposes, not publishing it. I simply used one part of the strategy that is built into the Logical Trading Indicator, and it honestly doesn't properly utilize multiple options for exits as far as the automated strategy goes. I know that if I use these settings, but also use my built in take profit signals, I can do much better than these results are showing. What is great about this is you can see the performance and find trades that you wouldn't have taken in the first place, or entries and exits that could have been done better by trading manually. For example, after looking at the list of trades, I saw several trades I would have either gotten out of for better profit using the take profit signals, or trades I wouldn't have taken in the first place due to consolidation or accounting for the larger trend. When trying to program some of the other functions from the main indicator, TradingView would freak out on me a bit and not want to provide any results, or results that just didn't make any sense. But that is all a part of the process. It helps you figure out that the machines don't always have it right, and that having just a bit of 'human' in your trades can make your performance even better than the strategy suggests! Living That Trader Life This is the life of a good trader, at least in my opinion. Based on my trading plan, I do not trade on the weekends, even though the crypto markets are open, it isn't always the best time to trade. I like to take this time to go over my trading journal to see where I can improve, perfect my strategies, and hone in on the things I need to work on to get better. What this development work does for me is show me that automated trading is great, but with the combination of a great indicator that can produce trading alerts, and my own trader's intuition, I can give the markets a serious beating and come out with some amazing gains, as long as I stick to the plan, as well as trade manually with the signals! This helps me keep the emotions out of the game and let's me use the data with the correct settings to make the best decisions possible in my trades for the biggest gains! So get out there and do some backtesting on your favorite strategies to see if you really are trading logically!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by thelogicaldude
HOW-TO use the Fundamental Strength Indicator? (full guide)Below is the complete instruction on how to use the Fundamental Strength Indicator . Part 1: The Fundamental Strength of the Company To understand what it is for, let's imagine that you manage a long-distance running team, and you need to recruit a team of excellent athletes. However, you don’t even know the names of these athletes or their contract amounts. You only have information about their health and athletic performance: hemoglobin and iron content in the blood, maximal oxygen consumption, steps-per-minute rate, speed, age, etc. Each player has their own large table with different parameters. And you have, let’s say, a thousand tables like that. If you spend 3 minutes studying one table, it will take you 50 hours to analyze all the tables, which is just over 2 days of continuous work. And how long would it take to compare each athlete with the rest? Approximately 2 years of continuous work. This is obviously no good, that is why you take a computer, enter all the data from the tables and start thinking about how you can reduce the time to compare one athlete with another. As a result of your brainstorming, you come to the following conclusions: — Each parameter has its range of values, which can give you an idea of whether an athlete is suitable or not suitable for a marathon. — The parameter may have its dynamics: it may increase from month to month, stay the same, or decrease. — Each parameter can be assigned a score. For example, the step-per-minute rate can be: — 175 and above (+1 point) — 165–174 (0 points) — 164 and below (-1 point) And you do that with each parameter. What are these points for? To convert indicators that use different units into one measurement system. Thanks to this method, you can now compare apples to oranges. Then, you sum up all the points per month and get one single number — let's call it athletic strength. You like your thought process, and you apply this algorithm to every athlete’s table. Now, instead of dozens of parameters per month, you have one number (athletic strength) for each athlete. It looks like your task has been dramatically simplified. Next, to study the dynamics of athletic strength from month to month, you “ask” your computer to create a plot for each of the athletes. This chart shows that Athlete #1's athletic strength has fluctuated chaotically in the first three quarters of 2022, possibly due to the lack of regular training. But then you observe a positive trend, where athletic strength has grown from month to month. It seems like the athlete has taken up training. Then, to compare one athlete with another, you “ask” your computer to add the average value of athletic strength over the past six months (average pre-competition training period) to the existing plot. Now, you can use the most average recent value as a weighted score of athletic strength and compare athletes with each other based on this value. Thanks to this solution, you accelerate the analysis process by a magnitude: one athlete – one number. It appears that you can then simply sort the table by the highest athletic strength weighted score and consider the best athletes. However, not wanting to sort the table every time the data is updated or when you get new athletes, you make a better decision. The logic behind the points system implies that there is a maximum and a minimum possible number of points that one athlete can get. This allows you to create ranges of scores for athletes with excellent, mediocre, and poor training. For example, let’s say the maximum is 15 and the minimum is -15. Athletes with a score of 8 to 15 will be considered as strong, 1 to 7 – mediocre, and 0 to -15 – weak. That’s it! Now, thanks to this gradation, you can simply check which range the weighted athletic strength falls within, and decide whether each athlete will be admitted to the team. I believe that now your primary selection will take no more than one working day (including a lunch break). Now let's mentally replace athletes with public companies. Instead of data on health and athletic performance, we will have data from the companies’ financial statements and financial ratios. Applying a similar algorithm, we will get the fundamental strength of the company instead of athletic strength. I think it's time to show the Fundamental Strength Indicator . Let's launch! What do we see? — First, it is a Histogram with bars of three colors: green, orange, and red. The width of the histogram depends on the depth of data from the company statements. The more historical data, the wider the histogram over time. The green color of the bars means that the company has been showing excellent financial results by the sum of the factors in that period. According to my terminology, the company has a “strong foundation” during this period. Green corresponds to values between 8 and 15 (where 15 is the maximum possible positive value on the sum of the factors). The orange color of the bars means that according to the sum of factors during this period the company demonstrated mediocre financial results, i.e., it has a “mediocre foundation” . Orange color corresponds to values from 1 to 7. The red color of the bars means that according to the sum of factors in this period of time, the company demonstrated weak financial results, i.e., it has a “weak foundation” . The red color corresponds to values from -15 to 0 (where -15 is the maximum possible negative value on the sum of factors). — Second, this is the Blue Line , which is the moving average of the Histogram bars over the last year (*). Averaging over the year is necessary to obtain a weighted estimate that is not subject to medium-term fluctuations. It is by the last value of the blue line that the actual Fundamental Strength of the company is determined. (*) The last year means the last 252 trading days, including the current trading day. — Third, these are operating, investing, and financing Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income. These flows look like thick green, orange, and red lines, respectively. — Fourth, this is the Table on the left, which shows the latest actual value of the Fundamental Strength and Cash Flows. Indicator settings: In the indicator settings, I can disable the visibility of the Histogram, Blue Line, Cash Flows (each separately), and Table. It helps to study each of the parameters separately. It is also possible to change the color, transparency, and thickness of lines. The movie Moneyball was released in 2011, where Brad Pitt plays the role of Billy Bean, the sports manager of the Oakland Athletics baseball team. With a small budget, he managed to assemble a high-scoring team based on the analysis of player performance. As a result, this approach was applied by other teams in the league, and Billy Bean received massive recognition from the professional community. Part 2: Benchmark Business Model One day, when I had already grasped the concept of the Fundamental Strength of a company, I was returning home from vacation. I was in a taxi and the driver was listening to an audiobook. As the drive took longer than an hour, I had nothing to do but listen to the story. I liked the content. It was a fictional novel with a plot centered around the main character named Alex Rogo. He is a manager of one of the three enterprises of the UniCo corporation. Even though Alex spends all his time and energy on work, things are not going very well for the company: over the past six months, the company has only had losses. This leaves Alex's executives no choice but to give him an ultimatum: if he can’t radically improve the situation in three months, the enterprise will be shut down, and he will be left without a job. At the same time, Alex's wife is tired of her husband’s absence in her personal life, so she decides to leave him. Anyway, the story's beginning turned out to be very dramatic, and I wondered how Alex would cope with all this. Luckily, in this stressful time, he meets his former physics teacher Jonah, who now consults companies regarding efficient production. Alex tells his old acquaintance about what’s going on and how he managed to increase labor productivity at the enterprise after purchasing new robots. However, the losses continue to hang over his head like the sword of Damocles. After listening to Alex's story, Jonah wisely suggests that the problem with his enterprise lies in the management is concerned about anything but the main goal of their business, which is creating money or profit. Jonah explains to Alex that all management ideas related to expanding the sales market, using new technologies, or improving product quality can lead the company to a disaster if fundamental things are not considered. In his opinion, management should only focus on three indicators: — Throughput , which is the rate at which a company makes money through sales. — Inventory , which is all the money invested by the company in assets: premises, equipment, patents, raw materials, etc.: that is, in something that can then be sold. — Operational expenses , which are all the money a company spends turning investments into cash, or something that can’t be sold, such as the salary of employees, the cost of rent, payment for delivery services, etc. Thus, the management’s job is to make improvements that will ultimately lead to an increase in Throughput and a decrease in Inventory and Operational expenses. For example, Alex’s purchase of robots to increase the number of products produced has led to an increase in production. However, suppose you look at it through the prism proposed by Jonah. In that case, we actually have the following picture: Inventory has increased, Operational expenses have not decreased (no one has been fired), and the robots can’t contribute to sales growth in any way (the Throughput is not increasing). As a result, this was not an improvement, but a deterioration. The accumulation of such bad decisions eventually leads to the unprofitability of the company. Conversely, continuous improvements that will increase the Throughput and reduce Inventory and Operational expenses will inevitably lead to achieving the main goal – making money. After I got home, I tried to find this book on the Internet. It turned out that it was written by physicist and philosopher Eliyahu M. Goldratt back in 1984. The novel is called The Goal . That’s when I realized that if the company's management adheres to the approach described by Goldratt, then after a while, we will most likely see a fundamentally strong company. And the Fundamental Strength Indicator clearly shows how much the management has succeeded along this path. For example, according to Goldratt, an increase in Throughput should lead to an increase in Earnings per share (EPS) and Total revenue . The reduction in Inventory may be linked with a decrease in Inventory to revenue ratio . Optimization of Operational expenses will definitely reduce the Operating expense ratio . All these parameters are considered when calculating the Fundamental Strength of the company. So, let's move on to the methodology for calculating the Fundamental Strength Indicator. The main idea that inspired me to create this indicator is: "Even if you buy just 1 share of a company, treat it like buying the whole business" . Guided by this approach, you can imagine what kind of business an investor is interested in owning and simultaneously determine the input parameters for calculating the indicator. For me, a benchmark business is: — A business that operates efficiently without diminishing the return on shareholders' investment. To assess the efficiency and profitability of a business, I use the following financial ratios(*): Diluted EPS and Return on Equity (ROE). The first two parameters for calculating the indicator are there. — A business that scales sales and optimizes its costs. From this perspective, the following financial ratios are suitable: Gross margin, Operating expense ratio, and Total revenue. Plus three other metrics. — A business that turns goods/services into cash quickly and does not fall behind on payments to suppliers. The following financial ratios will fit here: Days payable, Days sales outstanding, and Inventory to revenue ratio. These are three more metrics. — A business that does not resort to significant accounts payable and shows financial strength. Here I use the following financial ratios: Current ratio, Interest coverage, and Debt to revenue ratio. These are the last three parameters. (*) If you are keen to learn more about these financial ratios, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView: Financial ratios: digesting them together What can financial ratios tell us? Next, each of the parameters is assigned a certain number of points based on its last value or the position of that value relative to the annual maximum and minimum. For example, if the Current ratio: — greater than or equal to 2 (+1 point); — less than or equal to 1 (-1 point); — more than 1 but less than 2 (0 points). Or for example, if Diluted EPS: — near or above the annual high (+2 points); — near the annual minimum and below (-2 points); — between the annual maximum and minimum (0 points). And so on with each of the parameters. As a result, the maximum number of points a company can score is 15 points. The minimum number of points a company can score is -15 points. These levels are marked with horizontal dotted lines: the green line is for the maximum value, and the red line is for the minimum. I track the number of points for each day of a company's life on a three-color Histogram. The resulting average value for the last year is on the Blue Line. For me, it is the last value of the Blue Line that determines: this is the actual Fundamental Strength of the company. As an additional filter, for example, when comparing two companies where all other conditions are equal: I use the dynamics of Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income. These are the thick green, orange, and red lines over the Histogram. Examples: Below, I will evaluate various companies using the Fundamental Strength Indicator. Tesla, Inc. The indicator shows that since 2020, Tesla Inc. has been steadily increasing its Fundamental Strength (from 3.27 in Q1 2020 to 12.79 in Q1 2023). This is noticeable both by the color change of the Histogram from orange to green and by the rising Blue Line. If you look in detail at what has been happening with the financials during this time, it's clear what meaningful work the company has done. Revenues have almost quadrupled. Earnings per share have increased 134 times. At the same time, Total debt to revenue fell almost 10 times. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. The company, formed in 2018 by the merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple Group, has failed to deliver outstanding financial results, causing its Fundamental Strength to fall from 4.63 in Q1 2018 to -0.53 in Q1 2023. During this period, the decline in diluted earnings per share was accompanied by higher debt and deteriorating liquidity. Costco Wholesale Corporation Wholesaler Costco has been surprisingly stable in its financial performance and with steady growth in both earnings and revenue. This is the reason the Histogram bars are exceptionally green throughout the calculation of the indicator. The Fundamental Strength has not changed in three years and is high at 11 points. Part 3: Company Cash Flow Dynamics The other day I came across an interesting article about the work of the Swiss company Glencore International AG in the 1990s. This company specializes in trading raw materials, and at that time it was actively trading with the countries that had left the USSR. None of those countries had foreign currency, and trust in local currencies had not yet appeared, so it was necessary to exchange commodities for commodities like in the Middle Ages. For example, to sell copper in Kazakhstan, a Swiss company bought raw sugar in Brazil, then took it to Ukraine for refining, then the refined sugar was exchanged for Siberian oil in Russia, then the oil was exchanged for copper ore in Mongolia, which was then sent to a plant in Kazakhstan to create copper suitable for sale on the world market. As we can see, money was used here only at the moment of purchase of raw sugar and sale of copper, the rest of the chain of transactions was an exchange of goods for goods. It turns out the following scheme: Money - Raw sugar - Refined sugar - Oil - Copper ore - Copper - Money' Of course, all of this made sense when Money' (with a stroke) equaled big money. Otherwise, the cost of preparing and executing such a complex transaction simply wouldn't have paid off. This example once again convinced me how significant a role money plays in any company's operations. Can you imagine the chaos that a business can become without money and having to make up similar supply chains? Money simplifies and accelerates all processes in a company, so competent management of these flows is the basis of an effective business. If you compare a company to a living organism, Cash Flow(*) is its circulatory system. It is thanks to this system that the company is supplied with everything it needs to produce goods or services. (*) If you are keen to learn more about Cash Flows, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView: Cash flow statement or Three great rivers Cash flow vibrations Considering that cash flows play a fundamental role in the activity of any company, it is reasonable to assume that their analysis will give us the necessary information to decide. For this reason, an additional parameter was added to the Fundamental Strength Indicator : the dynamics of Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income(*). (*) Since the value of income can be negative, the Diluted net income module is taken, that is, without the "minus" sign. Why do I use income as a unit of measure of Cash Flows? Because it is a good way to make the scale of indicator values the same for companies from different countries, with different currencies. It also allows you to use a single value scale for both Cash Flows and Fundamental Strength. So, let's take a look at how the dynamics of Cash Flows look like in the Fundamental Strength Indicator. These are three lines of different colors, which are located over the Histogram. Each of the flows corresponds to a specific color: — Operating cash flow: green line; — Investing cash flow: orange line; — Financing cash flow: red line. In this way, I can track the dynamics of the company's Cash Flow over time. To interpret the dynamics of Cash Flows, I pay attention to the following patterns: — How the cash flows are positioned in relation to each other; — In which zone each of the cash flows is located: in the positive or negative; — What is the trend of each of the cash flows; — How volatile each of the cash flows is. As an example, let's look at several companies to interpret the dynamics of their Cash Flows. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. This is the most ideal situation for me: operating cash flow (green line) is above the other cash flows, investment cash flow (orange line) is near zero and practically unchanged, and financial cash flow (red line) is consistently below zero. This picture shows that the company lives off its operating cash flow, does not increase its debt, does not spend a substantial amount of money on expensive purchases, and retains (does not sell off) assets. Parker Hannifin Corporation With stable operating cash flow (green line), the company implements investment programs by raising additional funding. This is noticeable due to an increase in financial cash flow (red line) and a simultaneous decrease in investment cash flow (orange line) with a significant deepening into negative areas. Apparently, there is not enough operating cash flow to realize the planned investments. One has to wonder how sustainable a company can be if it invests in its development using borrowed funds. Schlumberger N. V. The chaotic intertwining of cash flows outside the Fundamental Strength range (-15 to 15) is indicative of the company's rich life, but to me, it is an indicator of high riskiness of its actions. And as we can see, Fundamental Strength has only begun to strengthen in the last year, when the external appearance of cash flow has normalized. Thus, when the Fundamental Strength of two companies is equally good, I use an additional filter in the form of Cash Flow dynamics. This helps me to clarify my interest in this or that company. What is the value of the Fundamental Strength Indicator: — allows for a quantitative assessment of a company's financial performance in points (from -15 to 15 points); — allows you to visually track how the company's financial performance has changed (positively/negatively) over time; — allows to visually trace the movement of main cash flows over time; — accelerates the process of selecting companies for your shortlist (if you are focused on financial results when selecting companies); — allows you to protect yourself from investing in companies with weak and mediocre fundamentals. Mandatory requirements for using the indicator: — works only on a daily timeframe; — only applies to shares of public companies; — company financial statements for the last 4 quarters and more are required; — it is necessary to have the data from the Balance sheet, Income statement, and Cash flow statement, required for the calculation. If at least one component required for calculating the Fundamental Strength is missing, the message "no data to calculate the Fundamental Strength correctly" is displayed. In the same case, but for the operating cash flow, the message "no data to calculate the Operating Cash Flow correctly" is shown, and similarly for other flows. Risk disclaimer: When working with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the additional filter in the form of Cash Flows, you should understand that the publication of the Balance sheet, Income statement, and Cash flow statement takes place sometime after the end of the financial quarter. This means that new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statements. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the values of the Indicator after the publication of new statements. The magnitude of this change will depend both on the content of the new statements and on the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statements. Until the date of publication of the new statements, the latest relevant data will be used for calculations. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the calculation of Fundamental Strength and Cash Flows requires the availability of data for all parameters of the valuation model . It uses data that is exclusively available on TradingView (there is no reconciliation with other sources). If at least one parameter is missing, I switch to another company's analysis to continue using the indicator. Thus, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and an additional filter in the form of Cash Flows make it possible to evaluate the financial results of the company based on the available data and the methodology I created. A simple visualization in the form of a three-color Histogram, a Blue line, and three thick Cash Flow lines significantly reduces the time for selecting fundamentally strong companies that fit the criteria of the selected model. However, this Indicator and/or its description and/or examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Be_Capy
Diversification: What It Is, Why It Matters & How to Do ItDiversification is a market strategy that enables you to spread your money across a variety of assets and investments in pursuit of uncorrelated returns, hedging, and risk control. Table of Contents What is portfolio diversification? Brief history of the modern portfolio theory Why is diversification important? An example of diversification at work How to diversify your portfolio Components of a diversified portfolio Build wealth through diversification Diversification vs concentration Summary 📍 What is portfolio diversification? Portfolio diversification is the strategy of spreading your money across diverse investments in order to mitigate risk, hedge and balance your exposure in pursuit of uncorrelated returns. While it may sound complex at first, portfolio diversification could be your greatest strength when you set out to trade and invest in the financial markets. As a matter of fact, once you immerse yourself into the markets, you will be overwhelmed by the wide horizons waiting for you. That’s when you’ll need to know about diversification. There are thousands of stocks available for trading, dozens of indices, and a sea of cryptocurrencies. Choosing your investments will invariably lead to relying on diversification in order to protect and grow your money. Diversifying well will enable you to go into different sectors, markets and asset classes. Together, all of these will build up your diversified portfolio. 📍 Brief history of the modern portfolio theory “ Diversification is both observed and sensible; a rule of behavior which does not imply the superiority of diversification must be rejected both as a hypothesis and as a maxim. ” These are the words of the father of the modern portfolio theory, Harry Markowitz. His paper on diversification called “Portfolio Selection” was published in The Journal of Finance in 1952. The theory, which helped Mr. Markowitz win a Nobel prize in 1990, posits that a rational investor should aim to maximize their returns relative to risk. The most significant feature from the modern portfolio theory was the discovery that you can reduce volatility without sacrificing returns. In other words, Mr. Markowitz argued that a well-diverse portfolio would still hold volatile assets. But relative to each other, their volatility would balance out because they all comprise one portfolio. Therefore, the volatility of a single asset, Mr. Markowitz discovered, is not as significant as the contribution it makes to the volatility of the entire portfolio. Let’s dive in and see how this works. 📍 Why is diversification important? Diversification is important for any trader and investor because it builds out a mix of assets working together to yield returns. In practice, all assets contained in your portfolio will play a role in shaping the total performance of your portfolio. However, these same assets out there in the market may or may not be correlated. The interrelationship of those assets within your portfolio is what will allow you to reduce your overall risk profile. With this in mind, the total return of your investments will depend on the performance of all assets in your portfolio. Let’s give an example. 📍 An example of diversification at work Say you want to own two different stocks, Apple (ticker: AAPL ) and Coca-Cola (ticker: KO ). In order to easily track your performance, you invest an equal amount of funds into each one—$500. While you expect to reap handsome profits from both investments, Coca-Cola happens to deliver a disappointing earnings report and shares go down 5%. Your investment is now worth $475, provided no leverage is used. Apple, on the other hand, posts a blowout report for the last quarter and its stock soars 10%. This move would propel your investment to a valuation of $550 thanks to $50 added as profits. So, how does your portfolio look now? In total, your investment of $1000 is now $1,025, or a gain of 2.5% to your capital. You have taken a loss in Coca-Cola but your profit in Apple has compensated for it. The more assets you add to your portfolio, the more complex the correlation would be between them. In practice, you could be diversifying to infinity. But beyond a certain point, diversification would be more likely to water down your portfolio instead of helping you get more returns. 📍 How to diversify your portfolio The way to diversify your portfolio is to add a variety of different assets from different markets and see how they perform relative to one another. A single asset in your portfolio would mean that you rely on it entirely and how it performs will define your total investment result. If you diversify, however, you will have a broader exposure to financial markets and ultimately enjoy more probabilities for winning trades, increased returns and decreased overall risks. You can optimize your asset choices by going into different asset classes. Let’s check some of the most popular ones. 📍 Components of a diversified portfolio Stocks A great way to add diversification to your portfolio is to include world stocks , also called equities. You can look virtually anywhere—US stocks such as technology giants , the world’s biggest car manufacturers , and even Reddit’s favorite meme darlings . Stock selection is among the most difficult and demanding tasks in trading and investing. But if you do it well, you will reap hefty profits. Every stock sector is fashionable in different times. Your job as an investor (or day trader) is to analyze market sentiment and increase your probabilities of being in the right stock at the right time. Currencies The forex market , short for foreign exchange, is the market for currency pairs floating against each other. Trading currencies and having them sit in your portfolio is another way to add diversification to your market exposure. Forex is the world’s biggest marketplace with more than $7.5 trillion in daily volume traded between participants. Unlike stock markets that have specific trading hours, the forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week. Continuous trading allows for more opportunities for price fluctuations as events occurring in different time zones can impact currency values at any given moment. Cryptocurrencies A relatively new (but booming) market, the cryptocurrency space is quickly gaining traction. As digital assets become increasingly more mainstream, newcomers enter the space and the Big Dogs on Wall Street join too , improving the odds of growth and adoption. Adding crypto assets to your portfolio is a great way to diversify and shoot for long-term returns. There’s incentive in there for day traders as well. Crypto coins are notorious for their aggressive swings even on a daily basis. It’s not unusual for a crypto asset to skyrocket 20% or even double in size in a matter of hours. But that inherent volatility holds sharpened risks, so make sure to always do your research before you decide to YOLO in any particular token. Commodities Commodities, the likes of gold ( XAU/USD ) and silver ( XAG/USD ) bring technicolor to any portfolio in need of diversification. Unlike traditional stocks, commodities provide a hedge against inflation as their values tend to rise with increasing prices. Commodities exhibit low correlation with other asset classes, too, thereby enhancing portfolio diversification and reducing overall risk. Incorporating commodities into a diversified portfolio can help mitigate risk, enhance returns, and preserve purchasing power in the face of inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainty and other macroeconomic risks. ETFs ETFs , short for exchange-traded funds, are investment vehicles which offer a convenient and cost-effective way to gain exposure to a number of assets all packaged in the same instrument. These funds pull a bunch of similar stocks, commodities and—more recently— crypto assets , into the same bundle and launch it out there in the public markets. Owning an ETF means owning everything inside it, or whatever it’s made of. ETFs typically have lower expense ratios compared to mutual funds, making them affordable investment options. Whether you seek broad market exposure, niche sectors, or thematic investing opportunities, ETFs are a convenient way to build a diversified portfolio tailored to your investment objectives and risk preferences. Bonds Bonds are fixed-income investments available through various issuers with the most common one being the US government. Bonds are a fairly complex financial product but at the same time are considered a no-brainer for investors pursuing the path of least risk. Bonds have different rates of creditworthiness and maturity terms, allowing investors to pick what fits their style best. Bonds with longer maturity—10 to 30 years—generally offer a better yield than short-term bonds. Government bonds offer stability and low risk because they’re backed by the government and the risk of bankruptcy is low. Cash Cash may seem like a strange allocation asset but it’s actually a relatively safe bet when it comes to managing your own money. Sitting in cash is among the best things you can do when stocks are falling and valuations are coming down to earth. And vice versa—when you have cash on-hand, you can be ready to scoop up attractive shares when they’ve bottomed out and are ready to fire up again (if only it was that easy, right?). Finally, cash on its own is a risk-free investment in a high interest-rate environment. If you shove it into a high-yield savings account, you can easily generate passive income (yield) and withdraw if you need cash quickly. 📍 Build wealth through diversification In the current context of market events, elevated interest rates and looming uncertainty, you need to be careful in your market approach. To this end, many experts advise that the best strategy you could go with in order to build wealth is to have a well-diversified portfolio. “ Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well ,” says Ray Dalio , founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates. “ This is true because 1) in the markets, that which is unknown is much greater than that which can be known (relative to what is already discounted in the markets), and 2) diversification can improve your expected return-to-risk ratio by more than anything else you can do. ” 📍 Diversification vs concentration The opposite of portfolio diversification is portfolio concentration. Think about diversification as “ don’t put your eggs in one basket. ” Concentration, on the flip side, is “ put all your eggs in one basket, and watch it carefully. ” In practice, concentration is focusing your investment into a single financial asset. Or having a few large bets that would assume higher risk but higher, or quicker, return. While diversification is a recommended investment strategy for all seasons, concentration comes with bigger risks and is not always the right approach. Still, at times when you have a high conviction on a trade and have thoroughly analyzed the market, you may decide to bet heavily, thus concentrating your investment. However, you need to be careful with concentrated bets as they can turn against your portfolio and wreck it if you’re overexposed and underprepared. Diversification, however, promises to cushion your overall risk by a carefully balanced approach to various financial assets. 📍 Summary A diversified portfolio is essentially your best bet for coordinated and sustainable returns over the long term. Choosing a mix of various types of investments, such as stocks, ETFs, currencies, and crypto assets, would spread your exposure and provide different avenues for growth potential. Not only that, but it would also protect you from outsized risks, sudden economic shocks, or unforeseen events. While you decrease your risk tolerance, you raise your probability of having winning positions. Regardless of your style and approach to markets, diversifying well will increase your chances of being right. You can be a trader and bet on currencies and gold for the short term. Or you can be an investor and allocate funds to stocks and crypto assets for years ahead. Potential sources of diversification are everywhere in the financial markets. Ultimately, diversifying gives you thousands of opportunities to balance your portfolio and position yourself for risk-adjusted returns. 🙋🏾‍♂️ FAQ ❔ What is portfolio diversification? ► Portfolio diversification is the strategy of spreading your money across diverse investments in order to mitigate risk, hedge and balance your exposure in pursuit of uncorrelated returns. ❔ Why is diversification important? ► Diversification is important for any trader and investor because it creates a mix of assets working together to yield high, uncorrelated returns. ❔ How to diversify your portfolio? ► The way to diversify your portfolio is to add a variety of different assets and see how they perform relative to one another. If you diversify, you will have a broader exposure to financial markets and ultimately enjoy more probabilities for winning trades, increased returns, and decreased overall risks. Do you diversify? What is your strategy? Do you rebalance? Let us know in the comments. Liked this article? Give it a boost 🚀 and don't forget to follow us if you want to be among the first to be informed.
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
4
Stock Market Logic Series #7Options Spreads strategy, let us talk about it. If you want to buy high-probability spreads, there are specific places where you have the advantage. And, there are other specific places where it is just pure gambling. And, we don't gamble, EVER. We take calculated risks, where the probability of success is much higher than the probability of loss. -------------------------- In spread options, what matters the most is where the price will be at the expiration date. WHY? Because your profit can only be realized near the expiration date unless the price moves dramatically into your favor and far away from the spread strikes. So, if what matters is where the price is at the expiration date, you want that in this future date, the price of the stock to be away from it, with HIGH PROBABILITY. As you can see from the drawing on the chart, the blue channel signifies the probability area of where the price should be in the future. So if in the future, you are in the probable zone, as seen in the RED spreads, at the expiration date, the price could be below or above your strikes, and thus be successful or not successful, so your odds are more 50-50. since the price can just stall there, and oscillate in this area, since it is the probable area where the price should be. But if you look carefully at historical data, you can see that in the GREEN (MONEY ZONES), the price gets immediately rejected... WITH THE HELP OF T-I-M-E And when you buy spreads, you want TIME to be on your side... So now you can easily see... how to make TIME which is a HUGE factor in spreads, on your side! The trend is your friend... IF... you let it TIME to help you... When you use options, and trading options in general you need to know which strategy fits which scenario, and where your HIGH probability trade waiting for you. Just in case you don't know what options spreads are... In simple words... You choose 2 prices of the stock (aka strikes): ------$100 ------$90 and you speculate that if the price in a month will be above $100, you profit 1 point. and if the price in a month will be below $90, you lose 1 point. So it is a 1:1 risk-to-reward strategy. So your advantage comes from knowing where are the pivot points. But not all pivot points have the same advantage... As I just showed you in this post...
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by ZoharCho
How to use call option buy or sell indicatorHello Traders, Exciting news! We've just released a detailed video guide on how to harness the full potential of Chobotaru Brothers Option Indicators. In this short tutorial, we cover everything you need to know to use the indicator, specifically focusing on out-of-the-money call options. Here's what you'll discover in the video: 1. Adding the Indicator to Your Chart: Learn the simple steps to seamlessly integrate Chobotaru Brothers Option Indicator into your trading view for a clear and concise analysis. 2. Finding Option Parameters: Navigate through your broker's option chain on platforms such as Interactive Brokers to locate all the essential parameters needed for effective trading decisions. 3. SEE the Lines of Profit: Gain a deep understanding of the meaning behind each line of profit displayed by the indicator, empowering you to make informed choices based on market movements. 4. Utilizing Lower Timeframes (Example of 5m and 30m): Explore the versatility of Chobotaru Brothers Option Indicator by discovering how it can be effectively applied to lower timeframes like 5 minutes and 30 minutes. 5. LIVE Example: Out-of-the-Money Call Option: Follow along with our real-time example using an out-of-the-money call option, providing practical insights into how EASY is the indicator's functionality and application in a live trading scenario. We've designed this tutorial to be beginner-friendly, ensuring that traders of all levels can seamlessly integrate Chobotaru Brothers Option Indicators into their trading arsenal. Watch the video, enhance your trading skills, and unlock the potential for greater success in the options market. If you find the video helpful, don't forget to like, follow, and share it with your fellow traders. Happy trading, and may your profits soar! Best regards, Chobotaru Brothers
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by ZoharCho
How to Find a High Probability Trade in an Uptrend Hey Traders, We'll show you how you can find an easy trade with a high risk-to-reward ratio using some basic concepts. - Step One: Spot an uptrend where you have higher highs and higher lows. - Step two: Spot the last break of structure. - Step three: Use the Fibonacci tool and connect it from the recent lows to the recent highs. - Step Four: Watch prices coming back to the broken structure that lines up with any Fibonacci level. ( Focus on the 50% - 61.8% - 78.6% Levels ) - Step Five: Wait for a clear bullish candle and then enter with stoploss structure - Step Six: Take partial profits at the recent highs and the Fibonacci extensions ( - 0.27 & -0.618 )
Education
by Tradenessfx
3
The most subjective facet of my decision-making systemIn the previous publication I started talking about my decision-making system. I use it when investing in stocks. This system allows me to answer three questions: - which stocks to choose? - at what price to make a trade? - and in what quantity? In this post, I will continue to answer the question Which stocks to pick? and tell you about another facet of my crystal. As you can see, my decision-making system is quite formalized. What do I mean? It has clear criteria for which a company must be checked before investing in its stocks. If we go deeper into this idea, we can say that the state of affairs in any public company can be assessed using numbers from its statements and stock exchange prices for its stocks. All this can be visualized, put into a form that is readable for the investor, and accelerate the decision-making process many times over. However, there is an area with information that hovers around the companies, directly or indirectly influences it, but is poorly formalized: this is News . News can be called a message related to a company and distributed through its website, media, and social networks. This message triggers an almost knee-jerk reaction among stock investors (and traders). They will try to interpret the information received, make a forecast, and in some cases even make a trade. It is for this reason that the moment the news is published is often accompanied by a sharp movement in the stock price and an increase in trading volume. The order book now has a lot more players than before. These are traders excited by the news, confident of what will happen next. Here I can’t help but recall the allegory about Crazy Mister Market from Benjamin Graham. It presents the market as a partner who is constantly knocking on your door and offering you crazy ideas (stock prices). Where does this mister get his madness from? My answer is simple — from the news. Despite this, I cannot help but pay attention to the news, I cannot help but interpret it, to build predictions in my head. This happens reflexively, as a reaction to boiling water hitting my skin. However, will I make a trade under the influence of this information? We'll talk about this at the end of the post. Let's find out what news is available and where to find it. In this publication, I will only consider matters relevant to the stock market. That is information that can directly or indirectly affect the state of affairs in the companies. As I work, I divide the news flow into two categories: macro-event and corp-event . A macro-event is something that can indirectly impact the state of affairs in a company since it impacts the external environment in which it lives. For example: 1. In the third quarter, US GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year, which was better than expected (*). GDP Dynamics are a general economic indicator of economic growth in a particular country. This event only indirectly affects the business of the US companies. In other words, a company can be unprofitable even if the GDP in the country of its business is growing. (*) In the news, you will often see the following wording: - better than expected - worse than expected - as expected These are significant clarifications since it is believed that the exchange price already considers expectations for future events. Therefore, the coincidence with expectations will most likely be perceived calmly by market participants. Conversely, price fluctuations can be significant if the news can be qualified as a “surprise”. 2. The EPA is setting rules for a proposed “methane fee” on waste generated by oil and gas companies. This news also refers to macro events, as it impacts an entire industry: the oil and gas business. Moreover, please note that methane fee is only suggested. That is, it is not at all a fact that it will ultimately be implemented. Unlike macro events, a corp-event directly affects the state of affairs in the companies. Let's look at some of them. For example: 3. Hilton's (HLT) 3rd quarter Profit was in line with revenue forecasts. The news contains information about Hilton's financial results for the 3rd quarter. Of course, this directly impacts investors’ assessment of the company's prospects, and therefore the volume of investment in it. 4. Devastating wildfires have forced California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, to plan the sale of gas assets. Based on the news headline, we can conclude that the company is considering selling a significant part of its business (since the word “gas” even appears in the company name) to compensate for the damage from the devastating fires. Of course, this directly points to the difficult situation in the companies. Well, we figured out which news is considered a macro-event and which is a corporate event. Now let's find them where we need to. First, let's look at the event calendars that are available on TradingView. They are convenient because they inform us in advance what event to expect on the date in question. Let's start with the ⁣Economic calendar . You can find it in the main TradingView Products menu (Products -> Economic calendar ). This calendar shows upcoming publications of key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, ⁣ interest rate, unemployment, and inflation. It will also reflect national events — for example, presidential elections. Thus, you will only see macro events in it. Click on globe and select the country you are interested in, a group of countries, or the whole world: this way you will filter events by geography. If you are interested in tracking only important events, there is a special button for this High importance . There is also a three-column importance indicator next to each event. If all are shaded, the event is of maximum importance. You can expand any event, read information about it, view statistics, and even add it to your personal calendar. In terms of importance, the higher the importance of the event, the stronger the market reaction may be after the information is released. Furthermore, the strength of the reaction will depend on how much reality diverges from expectations for this event (with the forecast). Please note that the current value published is published to the left of the forecast, and the value for the previous period is published to the right. This allows you to evaluate the released metric over time. So, my standard set of filters for the economic calendar is: - Geography: all over the world; - High importance; - This week; - All categories. The economic calendar has been set up. There is another calendar on TradingView: this is Earnings calendar . It is located in the interface for working with Supercharts and, of course, is intended for analyzing corporate events. Once you go to the chart, click on the calendar icon in the menu on the right, and the events panel will open in front of you. The Earnings calendar will contain the names of the companies, their next reporting date, and analysts' estimates of earnings per share: EPS. In its meaning, this estimate is an average expectation or forecast. Therefore, any strong discrepancy between current data and the forecast value can greatly change the value of the company's stocks. By the way, you can check this simply by clicking on the company's name in the calendar: the window with the stock price chart will update instantly. The released earnings per share value can be viewed both on the chart itself and in the company's information (the top menu button on the right). The current value will be marked with either a red circle (below the forecast) or a green circle (above the forecast). The gray circle indicates the forecast itself. Calendars are convenient because they present us with the main essence of the news in a compressed, digitized form. The description of such news is not as important as the value of the key indicator. However, if you want to read classic text news about a related company, simply click on the lightning bolt icon on your chart. You can also find news grouped by asset class, region, news agency, etc. in the main menu of the TradingView site's root page. Of the groups presented, I most often use News Flow to get a general context of what is happening. Returning to my decision-making system, there is news (let's call it critical ) that can trigger the closure of a position or non-opening of a position in the shares of a particular company, even though the main indicators do not suggest this. To determine such news, I ask myself three questions: 1. Do I trust this news source? We are surrounded by many sources of news: social networks, news sites, television, etc. It’s easy to check everyone’s reputation on the Internet. Therefore, to take the news into account, you must trust its source. If you see significant news about a company, but it is not in reputable media resources and/or on the company's website, this is a reason to think whether the source is trying to increase its popularity through a loud headline and unverified content. 2. Does this news describe an accomplished fact? Even in reputable publications, you can find publications with versions of events, forecasts, and opinions. This is good food for thought. However, when deciding, I constantly try to separate the standpoint from the fact confirmed by a reliable source. Only facts can be considered when deciding. 3. Is an accomplished fact capable of leading the company to bankruptcy? This is a difficult question that requires an assessment of the company's economic damage, and its comparison with the level of total debt to creditors and current assets. Even if a company is facing bankruptcy, it can be saved by providing assistance from the government or other businesses. Answering this question, I can listen to the opinions of analysts and my intuition. Therefore, this is the most subjective facet of my decision-making system. I just have to tell myself: “Yes, this fact can lead the company to bankruptcy” or vice versa: “No, this news is bad, but it does not pose a critical threat to the business.” So, if I answer “yes” to all three questions, then I can close a position in the shares of a particular company or not open it, guided simply by my “yes, this should be done.” The fact is that critical news comes out now, and reporting on a specific date in the future: there is a time gap between these events. Therefore, I find myself in a situation where I just need to decide and evaluate it later, in the future, based on published reports. It is similar to flying an airplane that fails during transit. The pilot may not fully understand what happened, but the choice must be made right now. If I answer “no” to any of the three questions, then I continue to use other facets of my “crystal” in standard mode, and leave the news “just for my information.” In future publications, I will continue to elaborate on my decision-making system and share my approach to choosing the price and quantity of a stock trade.
SP:SPXEducation
by Be_Capy
The 9 Rules of Successful Investors The world of investing can be a daunting place, especially for beginners . With so many factors to consider and the potential for significant losses, it can be difficult to know where to start. However, there are a few basic rules that all successful investors follow. By following these rules, you can increase your chances of success and avoid costly mistakes. 1. Be prepared to lose money. This is the first and most important rule of investing. No matter how much research you do or how experienced you are, there is always the possibility of losing money. This is why it is important to only invest money that you can afford to lose. 2. Calculate your risk before opening a trade, not during. Before you open any trade, you should always calculate your risk. This means determining how much money you are willing to lose on the trade. You should also set a stop-loss order to automatically close the trade if it reaches a certain price level. 3. Be in a cold state of mind (without the influence of emotions). Emotions can be a major enemy of successful investing. When you are trading, it is important to stay calm and rational. Do not let your emotions get the best of you, as this can lead to making bad decisions. 4. Open positions only in the direction of the trend. One of the best ways to increase your chances of success in trading is to trade in the direction of the trend. This means identifying the overall trend of the market and then trading in line with that trend. 5. Keep a trading journal with a detailed description of each trade. A trading journal is a great way to track your progress and identify areas where you can improve. In your trading journal, you should record details of each trade, such as the date, time, entry price, exit price, and profit or loss. 6. Regularly analyze your trades. Once you have a few trades under your belt, it is important to take some time to analyze them. This will help you identify what you are doing right and what you need to improve on. 7. Constantly improve yourself. The world of trading is constantly evolving, so it is important to keep up with the latest trends and strategies. There are many resources available to help you learn more about trading, such as books, websites, and courses. 8. Give yourself time to rest from trading. Trading can be a stressful activity, so it is important to give yourself time to rest and recharge. Taking breaks from trading will help you stay focused and avoid making emotional decisions. 9. Profit is only what you have taken and have in your pocket (conditionally), not what the open P&L in the position shows, because it is floating and not fixed profit. This is a reminder that profit is not real until you have taken it out of the market. Do not get too attached to your profits, as they can quickly disappear if the market moves against you. Additional Tips for Successful Investing In addition to the 9 rules listed above, there are a few other things you can do to increase your chances of success as an investor: Do your research. Before you invest in any asset, it is important to do your research and understand the risks involved. This includes understanding the asset's fundamentals, as well as the overall market conditions. Diversify your portfolio. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. By diversifying your portfolio, you can reduce your risk and increase your chances of success. Invest for the long term. The stock market is volatile in the short term, but it has historically trended upwards over the long term. By investing for the long term, you can ride out the short-term fluctuations and maximize your returns. Don't panic sell. When the market takes a downturn, it is important to stay calm and avoid panic selling. Selling when the market is down will only lock in your losses. Instead, focus on the long term and ride out the storm. By following these tips, you can increase your chances of success as an investor. However, it is important to remember that there is no guarantee of success. Even the best investors in the world lose money sometimes. The key is to learn from your mistakes and keep moving forward.
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
Simple management is easier on your mindhi, just wanted to share a couple of thought on management, mainly for new members. in my eyes, there are two categories of management: simple (fixed RR) and more complex (variations of trailing). Both have positive and negative sides. In my eyes, as a very very subjective opinion, simple fixed RR system will be better for most people. Or ok, I'll not speak for most, but for me definitely. Why so: incredible simplicity, cause you just need to test to see how much your trades usually run + create b.e. rule, and you're good to go 3-5RR are usually best for fixed RR systems do not underrestimate the energy that goes into making decisions while managing and waiting, watching for the trade to develop into higher RR's. With fixed you don't have this - you just go b.e. and then you can close the terminal, and go away if needed. However yes, advanced experienced consistent traders would trail almost with no extra emotions, cause it's usually more mechanical. With that said, for many relatevely new traders, trailing could be extra emotional. with fixed, you'll have less chances to become emotional, because of many reasons, for me personally fixed RR system gives a sense of accomplishment on every trade, while with managing I'm constantly thinking how can I manage longer better etc. So I'm rarely satisfied when I'm getting stopped out on trail, cause I'm still "stopped out", while on fixed I have a sense of good work done. I know it's weird, but it's personal experience I could continue, but I guess the general guideline is there. My main message is that TP can be a very simple fixed 3 or 4RR and that would be more than enough and easier for most people's mind have a good weekend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
1
Smart Money Orderflow M15 ApproachIn this context, we define an intelligent order flow, which is a convergence of flows, in this case, downwards, leading the price to create congestions, i.e., internal breaks, and then consolidation phases, i.e., external breaks, which bring the price into the demand zone, where we should consider opening a long position subsequently. The pattern is clear: demand zone on H4 after a defined structural change with the main consolidation phase, and then we expect a retest in the demand zone, where it is highly likely that the price may reverse its direction, especially when analyzing the market from an M15 perspective. I remain available for further clarifications, greetings, and happy studying to all.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Mitigation + BOS M15 Setup In this scenario, we examine a very common approach: trend continuation. The particular aspect of viewing it in this light compared to simply looking at trendlines is how we can identify demand zones and structural changes called BOS. Prices always tend to retrace in these zones before continuing. Personally, I identify demand or supply zones at H4, and once the price retraces, I look for rebounds at M15. In that timeframe, I aim to identify a structural change to the upside if I'm looking for a long position. Sometimes during an uptrend, it's very common to identify inefficiencies or FVG, which in turn support the price during retracement. Best wishes and happy trading to all.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Pullback After Breakout Entry M15 ApproachIn this model, we define an approach that I personally use a lot, namely the creation of a demand or supply zone on the H4. In this case, we are observing a demand zone. Once the zone has been plotted on the chart, we wait for a retracement on the M15, and as soon as the market shows a structural change, in this case to the upside during the three London, pre-NY, and NY sessions, always considering to have the midnight open behind us, we can enter the market. The target will be the nearest swing high level, always considering to have at least a risk/reward ratio of 1.5. Best regards and have a good day everyone.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2