Using Put options in SPXU to trade the SPXDisclaimer
All TRADING involves high risk and YOU can LOSE a substantial amount of money, no matter what method you use. All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
For Educational Use Only – Not To Be Utilized As Trading Advice
Strategy
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SPXU is inversely correlated to the SPX.
Trade SPXU weekly put options for cheaper premiums and expecting a larger move.
Purchase the weekly SPXU put options contract to trade upside in SPX. (A short term trading strategy to reduce capital outlay)
Use Level 2 Tape Reading to see the supply/demand of the market, including the
Pros
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Less capital outlay so much more efficient
There is a tracking error in the SPXU which can help in getting a better price into the put option (the option pricing will change based on the buyers and sellers in the options market). This can help in time delay for trade setup before the move comes into the SPXU instrument.
SPXU provides (-3x) exposure to a market-cap weighted index of 500 large- and mid-cap US companies selected by the S&P Committee. This -3x exposure can help speed up the change in price of the underlying, which can help move faster towards breakeven and above into profitability in the options contract.
Cons
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Options have an expiry date so some timing does come into question.
There could be a change in the negative correlation between SPXU and SPX due to tracking error.
The trade does not move enough in the direction of the put in SPXU over and above the breakeven that the premium
Premium decay in the option for short-term options which can result in Theta decay.
Put options tend to move slower (shorter deltas) than call options (larger deltas).
Summary
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This strategy is only meant for reducing the capital required to get exposure to the SPX via leveraged instrument such as option.
Strategy!
Stock Company. Selling something that no one will buy piecemealSo, here we go. Start of the story here .
What next? How will he sell something that no one will buy in pieces?
He turns his company into a joint-stock company, which is a form of company organization that allows it to be split into shares. Our owner issues 1 million shares, that is, he sort of divides the company into 1 million pieces. Then he calculates how much his whole business is worth - let's say $1 billion. And if $1 billion divided by 1 million shares, you get $1,000. That's how he calculated the value of 1 share. Recall that our owner has decided to put only 25% of his business up for sale, that is, 250,000 shares. And if we multiply 250 thousand shares by the price of $1 thousand, we get $250 million in total - this is the value of the share of the company he plans to sell.
Now he has to decide: will he sell 25% of the shares to one or more buyers, or even an unlimited number of people. First, he was approached by one large investor who has $250 million to buy all 25% shares. But the investor shared with the owner a plan to grow the company and asked him to place his managers in high positions. The owner of the company didn't like it because he didn't want to lose control of the company, so the deal didn't go through. Then he was approached by several investors who promised him they would stay out of the company's business, but were willing to buy a 25% stake not for $250 million, but for only $200 million. That option did not suit the owner either. Then he decided this way: instead of negotiating with big buyers, I will offer my shares to anyone who is willing to pay 1 thousand dollars for 1 share. This offer is called IPO (initial public offering) . Remember this term, because you'll come across it quite often.
Our owner had agreed with the banks from which he borrowed money, that for a small commission they would sell his shares at $1,000 apiece to absolutely any buyer. But the first buyer asked the bank the question, "What's in it for me to own one share?" Through this question, we come to the point where we find out what owning stock gets us .
The bank answers the prospective buyer that:
- You will be able to manage the stock company by voting on matters of the general meeting of shareholders. The weight of your vote will be one in a million votes.
- You will be able to receive dividends if a majority of the general meeting of shareholders votes "yes" to pay dividends.
- If the company goes bankrupt, you will receive one millionth of its assets left over after all of the company's debts to banks have been paid.
The buyer decided he was being mocked and rejected the offer. After all, why should he have the right to vote if 1 his vote means little in the overall background. Why does he need dividends if they may not be assigned. Why would he need property that would be impossible to sell after bankruptcy.
But more about that in the next post.
What is a stock? Let me tell you a storyNow let's talk about what a stock is, why companies issue them, and why they attract investors.
To do this, imagine a story. Imagine a small shoe workshop with a single owner. Suppose he makes boots out of crocodile leather. His product is unique to the city and in demand, because these boots are very durable and comfortable. At this point, he can only produce one pair of boots a day, and the number of orders for boots is 2 pairs a day. To meet the demand of his customers, he hires an employee and buys twice as much crocodile leather and other necessary materials for the job. With what money? With all the profits previously accumulated. The workshop now meets the demand of two pairs of boots a day.
Later, the workshop receives a corporate order for 90 pairs of boots per month. In order to meet the new order, three more pairs of boots must be produced in addition to those two. But with what money to buy so many materials and hire three more employees? After all, even all of the previously accumulated profit is not enough for such a batch. In order not to miss out on a major customer, the workshop owner goes to the bank for a loan. The bank is happy to give him a loan secured by the workshop (which means that if the owner will not repay the loan, his workshop will be taken away). But all goes well, the owner hires three more workers, buys materials, and puts out five pairs of boots a day. With the proceeds, he pays the loan and interest.
Now, let's go back to that beautiful day when the shop received an order for 90 pairs. The owner could have declined the loan and waited for the accumulated profit, but to do so he would have had to negotiate with a potential buyer for a longer lead time for the entire batch, and that could have resulted in the loss of the order.
What it turns out: he needed the credit in order to ramp up production quickly, and thus the size of the business.
Taking advantage of the credit and constant demand, our workshop owner goes nationwide and becomes the most famous manufacturer of crocodile leather boots with many workshops all over the country. And a lot of people around him want to buy the successful business.
Then he starts thinking: on the one hand, he has a huge business that is profitable, and on the other hand, he has an opportunity to get money in exchange for workshops, stock of materials, employees' labor, business connections and reputation. In short, in exchange for everything he has created with his own hands and head, which is very difficult to sell individually.
He likes the idea, but in order to keep part of his business, he decides that he will sell only a share of his company - 25%. He did the math and realized that this money is enough for the rest of his life (and even to live another life).
What next? How does he sell something that no one will buy in pieces? Let’s continue next time.
Swing-Trading: Real-Time Signals ✅Our swing-trading strategy is based on the timeless and success proven strategies developed by stock market legends like Jesse Livermore, William o' Neil and Mark Minervini - 3x US investing Champion 🍾🍾🍾
In this video, I go through the details of our swing-trading strategy and explain how to get free access to Real-Time-Trading signals.
The lifestyle of your savings, and why Big Mac?I've mentioned the word "risk" many times before, and it really is a very important word in the investment process.
Today I would like to focus on a risk that you should pay much attention to as a future investor: market risk, or in other words, the risk that you will have to sell the shares you bought cheaper than the price at which you bought them, and suffer a loss in doing so. You will face this risk all the time, which is absolutely normal, because at any time events can happen which will cause the value of the stock to fall.
It can be said that investing in stocks is a series of profitable and unprofitable operations. So don't get discouraged and pour ashes on your head if your first trades are unsuccessful. That's part of the process. Investing is not a one-time transaction to make a quick profit, it's a way of life for your savings.
Remember the fundamental and simple rule of investing - the expected return is roughly equal to the risk you take. So, when you place money in a bank deposit, the only risk you take is that your money will depreciate by the difference between the rise in prices and the deposit rate.
The easiest way to explain this is with Big Macs. Let's say you have the money to buy 100 Big Macs. But you don't spend it, you put it under your mattress. A year later, because of a price increase of, say, 7%, you can buy not 100, but 93 Big Macs with the money from under the mattress. Every time you put money "under the mattress," you reduce the purchasing power of your savings. To preserve it, you can put your money in a year's deposit at the bank. That way, in a year, you'll withdraw the original amount from the deposit, plus a profit in the form of interest. Even if prices go up, as in the last example, you can buy 99 Big Macs, not 93.
Why not 100? Because the interest rate on a deposit is usually less than the percentage increase in prices (that is, inflation ). In our example, it was 6% versus inflation of 7%.
If you choose not to keep money "under the mattress" and not to open a deposit, but to invest in stocks, then at the end of the year you can buy, for example, 150 or only 50 Big Macs, because you are dealing with a potentially more profitable and therefore more risky instrument.
This is how the fundamental law of investing works, let me remind you again: as much risk as possible profit.
Thanks to this law we can refine our formula: investing in stocks is buying a share of a company with the goal of getting a future profit from its sale and being aware of the risk of a possible loss. Awareness of the risk of possible loss is an obligatory variable of our formula, an obligatory ingredient of our investment recipe.
Awareness of the problem is already a big step towards its solution. It's impossible to completely eliminate risks, but with proper management their impact can be minimized.
So, after studying the entire series of posts, you will get the necessary knowledge and practical skills to:
- find shares of companies interesting for investment;
- evaluate the financial condition of companies;
- determine the conditions for buying stocks;
- determine the conditions for selling stocks;
- manage risks;
- take into account the results of your operations.
You will have a ready-to-use strategy that will always help you find the answer to what to do or not to do with the stock at the current moment in time. You will not have to chain yourself to the monitor and do it all your time. You won't spend any more time doing it than you do watching the news or social media. You will learn to think like a intelligent investor, and you certainly will become one, if you are prepared to open yourself up to a very interesting and fascinating field of knowledge - stock investing. I sincerely wish you success on this path!
Raising initial capital: 4 approaches, of which one is not goodLet's break down the thought from the previous post in more detail. Obviously, to buy stocks, you have to have money, and if you are determined to become an investor, get ready to open your piggy bank. If you don't have savings, however, don't despair, there are other options.
I suggest you look at the following 4 options for acquiring the finances to buy stocks :
- Reduce your current expenses
- Sell unnecessary assets
- Increase your regular income
- And the option I don't recommend using at the start is to borrow.
I immediately stipulate that it is your, and only your responsibility how to apply the knowledge gained - to use something of the proposed or to go another way. I do not insist on anything. Rather, I am sharing information, but the decision is up to you in any case.
My opinion - always start with reducing your current costs, because the funds you save now give you a chance to increase your wealth in the future through investing. Make it a rule to plan your purchases in advance and buy only what is on your list. Don't go to the store without a list, otherwise you will buy more than you really need.
Next. Look at your possessions. Make a list of what you can sell without compromising your financial and mental well-being. Let what you don't need now serve to increase your wealth in the future.
Increasing your regular income is probably the most time-consuming but feasible way to accumulate funds for investment. Many people are often faced with the problem of choosing between a job they love where they don't earn enough and a job they hate with a higher income or, even worse, a job they hate with a paltry income. In the latter two cases, I recommend becoming an active user of services that will help you find the job you want (but don't act in haste, don't quit a job you don't like right away). Remember our goal is to keep and increase our income, not lose it altogether. In the case of a job you love and don't make much money, think about how you can increase your income in your current job. Sometimes all you have to do is make up your mind and ask your employer for it. Even a small increase will help you start saving. And if you have both a job you love and a desired level of income, I congratulate you, you are truly lucky.
Moving on. Borrowing for investments is the riskiest option. I highly do not recommend it, especially at the beginning of your investing journey. You definitely should not take a loan from a bank or other financial institutions. The credit rate will only increase your costs, and the need to repay the loan every month will break your entire investment strategy.
If family, friends or acquaintances are willing to lend you money long-term and without interest, think about whether your lender is aware of the risks and whether you are aware of the risks associated with investing in stocks, and whether this person will demand the money back before the agreed upon deadline. Even if you have agreed on everything, write down all of the terms of such a private loan on paper, so it is easier to resolve any disputes.
I always insist that the investment is conscious, that you understand and are ready to bear the responsibility and risks. So if you have even the slightest doubt about the borrowing option - don't take it! Consider another option. Ideally - work out a step-by-step plan and accumulate the necessary amount of money gradually.
Investing is the ability to say "no" so that you can say "yes"Have a wonderful day, my dear friends!
Let's get acquainted. My name is Capy. Someday I will tell you my stunning life story, and how fate has tied me to investing. I can't quite believe it myself sometimes... But that's not what today is about.
Today I'm starting a series of posts to introduce you to my vision and strategy in the very multifaceted and insanely interesting topic of stock investing.
Let's start by figuring out why you should be an investor?
Many people think that investors are some kind of Wall Street wolves who trade stocks of companies and make unimaginable amounts of money on it. I'm sure there are those too. But, in fact, investing has long ceased to be the monopoly of the employees of banks, brokerage companies or big businessmen.
Investing is available to absolutely everyone who plans their wealth and has the basic knowledge obtained at university. Or aspires to learn this indomitable beast. This is the reason I started this blog: to help everyone who wants to understand and share my ready-made strategy that you can apply in the process of investing.
It's worth saying that every one of us has done the act of investing at least once in our lives, perhaps without even realizing it. For example, when placing money on a bank deposit (the well-known bank deposit), renting out real estate, opening a business or just learning. All these actions have one common formula: you give something away now in order to get it back in the future and, in addition, to make a profit.
When you rent out an apartment, you cannot live in it because you have given it to other people to use. But when the lease expires, you'll get your apartment back, plus a profit in the form of the rent you've been receiving all that time.
When you start a business, you put money into it so you can pay it back later through the proceeds. And, of course, you expect the returns to exceed the costs invested.
When you invest in education, you plan to use what you have learned to achieve something, whether it's getting a job or enriching your inner world.
It is the expectation of profit that is the main motivating factor for the investor and the main purpose of the investment.
If you give someone an apple and they give it back to you after a while, that's not an investment. And if you give someone an apple, and after some time you get two apples back - you are already an investor, because you made a profit in the form of an additional apple.
The upcoming series of posts will focus on one of the investment options - namely, investing in stocks of companies. I plan to teach you how to approach each trade wisely and in a measured way to keep you from engaging in short-term speculation that looks like a casino game.
Going back to our formula, a stock investment is a transfer of your money to a particular company in exchange for a stake in its business. The purpose of these actions is to make a profit in the future from the sale of the shares (in the case of buying cheaper and selling higher), or the second option - to receive dividends. Dividends are when the company shares with you a portion of the profits in proportion to your share in the business. But we will focus on the first option to make a profit, that is "buy cheaper - sell more expensive". And the dividends to consider as a nice bonus to this strategy.
I will publish a new post soon. Let's talk about approaches that will allow you to find funds for investment.
Nava Imbalance Strategy - BreakoutsPrice Action Trading Strategy.
1. Make Channel & highlight Imbalances (3 Touches for confirmed Trend Channel)
ENTRY 1:. Wait for price to pass Imbalance in trend direction. Then Wait for Break/Retest of Trend Channel (showing trend weakness) + Entry Setup (Double Bottom, Head & Shoulders, etc.)
Entry Signal- Engulfing Candle, Doji, RSI OB/OS, MacD, etc.
ENTRY 2:. Wait for price to break Resistance + Retest (Price passes last imbalance + Entry Signal)
TRADING - TRUTH VS LIE 📉📈
A financial background can be useful for understanding how forex and other markets work. However, more beneficial are skills in math, engineering and hard sciences, which better prepare traders for analyzing and acting on economic factors and chart patterns. It doesn’t matter how much awareness you have about financial markets – if you can’t process new data quickly, methodically and in a focused manner, those same markets you thought you knew so well can eat you alive.
ANSWER: LIE
EXPERT TIP: To prepare for trading, focus on developing analytical skills rather than boning up on financial knowledge.
Trading is like running a business. In order to be successful, you need to learn from mistakes and have rules in place to help protect your capital. Like a business, it’s crucial to have appropriate strategies on hand for varying market conditions. Setting up a business is easy, and similarly, trading is easy too. Developing successful strategies and making money? That’s the hard part.
ANSWER: TRUTH
EXPERT TIP: It will seem easy if your early trades go well, but long-term profitability is a different matter altogether. Make your life easier by researching your trades, using the right position size, setting stops and keeping a handle on your emotions.
Can you be successful with a small trading account? It depends on your definition of successful. An account needs to be large enough to accommodate proper risk parameters. But success is relative; a high rate of return is based on percentages and not on monetary amounts.
For example, a 20% return is a 20% return regardless of the account size. However, if your 20% return isn’t worth enough in hard cash, it might be hard to incentivize yourself to improve as a trader.
ANSWER: IT DEPENDS
EXPERT TIP: Your account size will depend on your goals and your prior success. Naturally, experienced traders will have a larger account but to begin with, concentrate on that rate of return percentage.
Bragging rights be damned: the number of trades you win is irrelevant. Profitable traders simply make more money than they lose.
Say you win five trades and make $5,000, but lose one trade and lose $6,000 – you have won more trades than you have lost but are still down overall. Profitable traders will set rigid risk-reward parameters for a trade – for example they might risk $500 to make $1,000, a risk-reward ratio of 1:2.
If a trader makes five trades using this method, loses three of them and wins two of them, the trader is still $500 in profit ($2,000 profit-$1,500 loss). Don’t be afraid of taking a few hits: if your process is sound, one big winning trade can reverse your fortunes.
ANSWER: LIE
EXPERT TIP: Many successful traders will be losing more trades than they win, but oftentimes it won’t bother them. Focus on getting the right setups rather than worrying about the ones that got away.
How much time you spend trading, and monitoring trades, will depend on your trading style. Those employing a scalping strategy, for instance, will make a large number of transactions per day, entering and exiting many positions, and will need to pay close attention to their trades on the shortest timeframes.
However, position traders won’t need to spend as much time monitoring, as their transactions may last weeks, months or even longer – meaning long-term analysis will account for short-term fluctuations.
ANSWER: IT DEPENDS
EXPERT TIP: Ask yourself what type of trader you are. Shorter timeframes will mean monitoring and analyzing constantly – being ‘always on’. If you favor a more relaxed approach you may be suited better for position trading.
Some traders advocate a ‘mental stop loss’ when the market gets tough – that is, relying on oneself rather than a computer to set a level at which to exit a losing position. The problem is, a ‘mental stop loss’ is just a number that makes you worried about the money you’re losing. You may fret about the direction of the market - but you won’t necessarily be compelled to exit your trade.
A fixed forex stop loss is completely different – if your stop loss price trades you are out of the position, no ifs or buts. Exercising proper money and risk management means setting solid stops. Period.
Answer: TRUTH
EXPERT TIP: It can be so easy to neglect your stop loss. When a trade is going your way, the dollar signs can blind you - but you should protect yourself against the market turning.
Spreads may represent the primary cost of trading, but they aren’t the be-all-end-all when it comes to choosing your market. You may find an asset that has a wide spread but represents a strong opportunity due to its volatility. Similarly, you may find an asset with high liquidity and a tight spread, but that isn’t showing much trading potential. Above all, you should let your trading decisions be governed by setups presented by the market, not the size of the spread.
Answer: LIE
EXPERT TIP: The spread can represent a significant cost to traders – but don’t let it be the sole factor dictating your choice of asset.
The economic analysis key to a fundamental approach helps give traders a broader view of the market. Sound knowledge of the underlying forces of the economy, industries and even individual companies can enable a trader to forecast future prices and developments. This is different to technical analysis, which helps to identify key price levels and historical patterns, and provides conviction for entering/exiting a trade.
It’s true to say that expertise in economic analysis is important. However, so too is expertise in the technicals. Many successful traders will look to combine fundamental and technical analysis so as to be in a position to draw on as wide a range of data as possible.
Answer: TRUTH
EXPERT TIP: It may be worthwhile to devise a strategy accounting for the nuances of both technical and fundamental analysis.
News can create big moves in the market, but that doesn’t mean trading the news leads to the biggest opportunities. For a start, the volatility of important news events often makes spreads wider, in turn increasing trading costs and hitting your bottom line. Slippage, or when you get filled at a different price than you intended, can also hit your profitability in volatile markets. On top of these drawbacks, traders could get locked out, making them helpless to correct a trade that moves against them.
ANSWER: LIE
EXPERT TIP: ‘Trading the news’ can seem like a fashionable thing to do, but market movements can be unpredictable at the time of major releases. It’s often best to steer clear during such high volatility.
Excluding emotions from trading is an impossible endeavor. It can lead to more internal conflict than benefits, which is why managing emotions is a better way of looking at it. You have negative emotions like fear and greed that need to be managed without suppressing positive ones like conviction that help drive you towards the best opportunities.
Answer: TRUTH
EXPERT TIP: Even the most experienced traders feel emotion in the heat of the markets, but how they harness that emotion makes all the difference.
Source: DailyFX
🏆 10 Trading Rules For Success 🏆🏆 Accept the losses . Losses are inherent in trading. There is no earning trader who will not suffer a loss from time to time. In the case of trading, a mistake involves a loss of capital, which can be painful at the very beginning of learning, but as you develop your skills and expand your range of competencies, you begin to understand that it is impossible to successfully win against the market without occasionally incurring a cost for this struggle in the form of losing trades.
🏆 Don't Risk Money You Can't Lose . Playing the financial market involves constant risk in which the most at risk is our capital which we trade. We can't afford to bet with money we can't lose, by which I mean money meant for living, savings, family money, selling usable items to fund an account with a broker. There is always the temptation that if only we had a bigger trading account we would play better and take less risk, which is of course nonsense. No matter how much money we trade with, whether it's hundreds, thousands or even hundreds of thousands we will always be tempted to play with even more money to make profits even bigger, unfortunately, most likely the only thing that increases is the loss on the trading account. Each of us must find the right amount of money for him, I would suggest at the very beginning to operate with money that we are able to recharge the broker in a few weeks, for some it will be 10% and for some 30% of monthly income.
🏆 Treat Trading Like a Business . Trading is such a business venture of ours, starting with the capital we have to put up to get into it, then developing a strategy that will bring us profits, after protecting ourselves from losses, including costs such as (cost of opening a trade, swap, spread), taxes. We can't treat trading as a hobby or as a job from 8-8. Profits on the financial market are not so predictable that we can say with a clear conscience how much we'll earn next month, and what's more, it may turn out that instead of earning, we'll lose. As for the fact that trading should not be considered a hobby, I can only add that trading requires much more focus and commitment than typical hobby activities, inherent in it is the theme of making and losing money, which for most is a very emotional subject.
🏆 Control Your Emotions . Control of emotions is a key issue in any field if we talk about the master level, from many interviews of professionals in their fields we can repeatedly hear about how control of emotions is of great importance in their field especially on the results they get. As trading is a competitive field. Someone wins someone loses. As our earned money is at stake, I don't need to stress that this doesn't make the whole thing any easier. The most important thing is to realize that emotions will occur and instead of suppressing this fact we should accept it. In order to control emotions, the most important element is to realize that we are under its influence. Because taking action under the influence of some extreme emotions is simply a mistake and it is best in such a case to step away from trading for a day and sometimes even a week to simply cool down. One of the best ways to reset your emotions is to sleep, take a nap and even meditate, and for all those who think that meditation is not for them, but only for tree huggers, I would like to introduce you to one of the famous personalities from the world of investment, which is Ray Dalio, who since 1985 has served as co-head investment director of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates. Whose fortune amounts to $19.1 billion and has repeatedly mentioned that transcedental meditation was the best investment he made in his life.
🏆 Manage risk . Such a broad topic that I will prepare a separate post for it, in short, we need to determine what % of capital we can devote to one concluded transaction, in my opinion we should not risk more than 1 to 2% of capital per position. In my opinion, we should not risk more than 1 to 2% of capital per position. We must also take into account the possibility of correlation, because what does it matter if we open 10 transactions with a rate of 2% if all of them are concluded on correlated markets such as forex or stocks. Then our risk is no longer 2%, but in the worst case 20%.
🏆 Stay disciplined . Learning to trade should be perceived more as a marathon rather than a sprint, on our way we will meet many disappointments and failures that are inherent in learning any field, we must not give up, we must remain disciplined and focused on the final result, in trading there is no room for distraction and making decisions on the spur of the moment. Markets are not forgiving of any mistakes or distractions, sometimes one moment of absentmindedness can affect the state of our portfolio. As traders, we must remain in a constant circle of learning and acquiring new skills. We will not achieve any results if we approach trading once a quarter. Taking up trading should be considered in the category of a future source of income about which we want to learn as much as possible.
🏆 Know your strategy . We need to know and understand perfectly the reasons and the way to trade, we need to be 100% aware of when to take trades and when we are remote from the market. We need to know what risks we can take on a given taransaction when we close it and what we will have to do (if).
🏆 Forget The Holy Grail . Just forget about it, if you are still looking for an idle indicator that will only give you profitable signals with your only right parameters, forget about success. Trading is something much more broad and deep than just the intersection of two moving averages. There are so many factors at work on traders' decisions that affect price movement that we can't even comprehend with our brains. I'm not saying here that it's not worth using indicators or fundamental data. I mean only not to base your decisions on them and not to get stuck in a vicious circle of testing a new strategy every week.
🏆 Trend is Your Friend . I'm not going to elaborate here. You simply have a higher probability of success playing with the trend and that's it.
🏆 Never stop learning . Never but never stop learning, read everything that falls into your hands and you find valuable at any given time. Watch, listen read about trading meet other traders ask questions and never stop learning. Remember follow my profile fits perfectly into the circle of continuous learning :D
🏆 Like the post? Follow my profile for more!
How you trade impacts how you feel 😀It's no secret that managing your trading psychology is the biggest challenge in your trading journey.
Some say it counts for 80%+ of what's needed to be successful.
I totally agree...
However, there's a key factor in this for me.
How you actually trade to start with!
Correct trading psychology starts by realising you need a strategy.
If you're guessing with no real plan or risk management surely you're going to be more stressed and overwhelmed than a trader who has a plan, has the data to support his strategy and manages his risk?
So once you get your system/strategy nailed on, this in turn will help manage your fear.
Greed is another factor, but this comes from your expectation.
Expectations and reality need to be aligned with one another.
Your expectations can come from your data and your testing.
But if you've skipped this step you'll be chasing unrealistic expectations.
Not just in terms of % gains, but in understanding your drawdown periods too.
So in summary both are completely related. You give me a trader that's really struggling with his trading mindset and fear and within a month they won't be feeling the same way.
Likewise, if give me a trader who is calm and in tune with his system and emotions, we'll quickly change this by getting him to trade randomly!
No trading psychology means no trading strategy, No trading strategy means no trading psychology. These two elements are so intertwined.
Thanks for looking at my idea.
Darren 👍
Market Structure: The analysis we use to skip (and we shouldn't)Hi traders, today we want to explain why market structure analysis is as important as a good entry signal strategy.
Note: For this article, we differentiate the entry signal from the market structure analysis. In some cases, the entry signal considers also the market structure but in these cases, we could easily split the set of rules into rules to define the market structure, and the rules to enter the market (entry signal). So we will consider it as two steps or phases.
One of the most common mistakes (which I did a lot in my trading early years) is that traders tend to focus on finding the best entry signal, the SL level, and the target, which is great but is only half of the work.
Only with this part and with proper risk management, you can be profitable. However, this is only the mechanical part of the trading strategy which, in most cases and especially if the entry signal is based on indicators, could perfectly be automated as these are only a set of rules (based on indicators or other technical analysis tools) that trigger the entry signal.
What it is as important as the SET (Stop, Entry & Target) is the analysis of the market structure of each asset. By that we mean that we should know:
- What is the current cycle of the asset? Where did the cycle start?
- Is it bullish or bearish?
- Is it impulsive or corrective?
- When and at what level this cycle is expected to end?
- Which structure this cycle has?
- and so on…
This is the part that was tougher for me to learn, and it is the part that requires more time and experience. Detect the subtle difference that very similar market structures can have and differentiating them will take you time. Do not misunderstand me, it is not rocket science, but it can be tricky.
The market does not use to move on perfect defined structures we can easily identify, most of the time it can be difficult to detect these structures.
We use the Elliot Wave principle mainly (but not only) to help us “find” the right market structure of each asset.
How we see the Elliott Wave principle (EWP) in one sentence would be:
It is a set of rules that help us to divide the market in impulse and corrections to know where and when each of these cycles has started and also to forecast when AND WHERE it is expected the cycle will end. It can sound not too much but believe me it is a lot.
Even though the Elliot Wave principle (EWP) rules are perfectly defined, to apply them on the chart would be not 100% objective and, therefore, the same rules can be applied differently by each trader on the chart. This is why it takes more time to identify the right way to interpret and apply the EWP rules to the chart and this is the reason why it is the part that used to take more time for the trader to be proficient in.
We see and use the EWP as a guideline or a map structure of the asset we are analyzing, (VERY IMPORTANT) we do not use EWP alone to enter the trade. We use it to know the structure of the asset and to infer the most probable direction that the price will take in the future. With EWP as the base of our trading strategy, we will use other analysis tools like the correlation between the different asset groups or the market dynamics to refine the assets that give us the maximum options of having a winning trade (after applying the entry signal strategy).
Another very important point we want to make clear from the beginning is that we should be flexible in our predictions. We do have a clear view of the structure that we think the market is having at this moment for each asset. However, we need to be prepared to be wrong, by that we mean that we need to know and be aware of what are (if any) the other potential structure the cycle we are analyzing can have. This is why we will not enter a trade based on the wave count only and we need the other tools we mentioned before.
Therefore, and to wrap it up for this lesson, EWP gives us a lot of crucial information that is the base of all our trading strategies. To summarize it and make clear how we use the EWP, we use EWP to:
- Know the Right side of the market for each asset (Long or Short)
- Detect whether the asset is in an impulsive or on a corrective cycle and its internal structure
- Project the zone where the asset is expected to end the correction (to apply there the entry signal strategy)
- Project the level where the impulse wave is expected to end (which would be different depending on the wave we are in) (Target)
All these will help us to find zones where we can apply our S.E.T. (Stop-Entry-Target) rules to maximize the overall return of our strategy as it will increase a lot our Winning percentage.
Have an amazing and successful trading day
TRS team
GoldViewFX - GVFX GOLDTURN RANGE BREAKER SETUP Hey Everyone,
This is a basic yet a strong Goldturn Trading Setup in step-by-step stages. Our personal signals in VIP use an algo generated weighted Goldturn setup for more pinpoint accuracy, which is the more advanced version of this and for obvious reason we can't share this here.
1 - Draw a Goldturn on the previous days Highest point for Resistance
2 - Draw a Goldturn on the previous days Lowest point for Support
3 - Wait to now see current day price action and look to see, which level EMA5 breaks - Support or Resistance?
4 - In this example previous days Goldturn low is broken with EMA5
5 - Once EMA5 breaks level by crossing over, we now wait for a 1H candle close after the cross. This is the confirmation lock candle.
6 - Next candle is entry candle - we can see a 450-pip movement from entry. We advise to take profit at 50 pips or next Goldturn, which is a likely target or move SL and trail the movement to catch the entire breakout.
Please don't forget to like the post, it helps us bring more quality content to you all.
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
Gamma Levels StrategyHello Traders!
I am presenting in action how I trade intraday using Gamma Levels in Intraday trading. I discuss setups, SL and TP placement as well as market behaviour, including positioning of Smart Money from Options & Darkpool markets. I also introduce my personal Money Management approach, as this is key step in order to be successful (profitable) trader.
📖 STEP 4 to MASTER TRADING: Focus on One Pattern 📖
"I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times." - Bruce Lee
We, traders, have a natural passion for learning and that’s really great and helps us build that foundation for trading. However, a moment comes when enough is enough and it’s time to focus on something more specific. But very often, we can make the unconscious mistake of trying to learn as much as possible, without even questioning if we really need it at the moment.
🟩 TOO MUCH INFORMATION
For anyone eager to learn, the information is there. In fact, too much information, and naturally, it can be hard to stop learning. Sometimes we just feel we need to learn about one more pattern, one more strategy, one more approach. And it may seem that more knowledge will bring quality. And that’s true when you just start trading, however, later in your career, it makes sense to think and ask yourself: “Do I really need one more strategy which I know on an average level, or should I maybe focus on one strategy, or one pattern of any given strategy - and really master it, and refine it to the very deep level of understanding?”
🟩 IT’S UNCOMFORTABLE TO LET GO
This part can be discussed for a long time, but based on what was said before, it’s literally uncomfortable for traders to let go of this habit of trying to trade multiple patterns, and learn more patterns in between. I’m not sure why this is so, there must be some psychological reasoning for this, but in simple words, every new trading pattern can be treated by us as a new opportunity to make profits in the market. And so when we stop learning more patterns - it can feel like we’re missing something.
And it may seem that the more we trade, the more patterns we can use - the more profit we can bank because we can enter into the market based on different patterns. And while that may be true to some genius traders, for most of us it doesn’t work that well. More importantly - we don’t need to do it. It’s enough to master 1-2 patterns of a given system we believe in and tested, and so have confidence in it.
I propose you consider “cutting off” 90% of your trading knowledge and focus only on executing 1-2 patterns max. Think about it. If you’re like me, you should feel really uncomfortable or even scared to do this. It may even seem stupid. Because it means you should let go of all the time you dedicated to learning, and maybe even trading with some systems before. But it’s an illusion because that time and effort - they are not lost, you can’t lose them, they are part of you now, part of your experience, something that led you to finally choose something you will work with really closely. But if you will attach to everything you learned before – this will confuse you and spray your focus all over the place, making it much harder to become a specialized, professional trader.
🟩 FOCUS ON YOUR BEST PATTERN ONLY
When the time comes, and you’ve tried several strategies, it now makes sense to stop exploring additional systems and just focus on one system and learn everything about it. For example, if you’re trading head and shoulders, then stop trading double tops and bottoms, break and retest, and diamond patterns. Why? Because head and shoulders are not just 5 lines on the chart, it has numerous variations in how it plays out in the market, in different markets, sessions, and contexts. And you have to know it, see it, test it, and refine it. Become a master of head and shoulders, or any other specific pattern and trading approach, and be profitable with it. And if profitability is there - you can move on to another pattern, but at that stage, you will not need it probably.
🟩 HINDSIGHT TEST, BACKTEST, FORWARDTEST, REFINE
It’s a great practice to have a “hindsight journal” and your backtesting journal, that will only be about that pattern you chose to trade. And there could be several reasons for choosing some particular pattern. But usually, it comes from your mentor or anyone else that you saw who reached sustainable profitability with it, and you believed in this pattern. But that would not be enough. You can’t tell your brain - believe in this. You need to actually show and prove it to your brain and to yourself.
So you need to backtest this pattern, and only this pattern for at least 150 trades. This will help you to develop real confidence in the system.
🟩 YES, IT CAN BE HARD TO FIND “YOUR” SYSTEM
I spent almost 3 years before I really found something I was willing to stick to long-term. Not sure if there’s actually good advice on how to find the system for yourself. It depends on your personality, your lifestyle, etc. Based on my experience, I would say just continue to learn and listen to yourself. Most likely you’ll find some trader or a mentor and you’ll like his trading style. Try to replicate it, and stick to his system. With time, and during journaling and live testing, it will all develop into your own system. Yes, it may look similar to your mentor’s but it will be your system.
And once again, a trading system can have different kinds of entry confirmations, but it makes big sense to choose 1 or 2 confirmations and master them.
🎁 For those who are still reading :), thank you, and here’s BONUS trading hack for you. Next time during your trading day, when you'll feel something is wrong, maybe you're frustrated or just feel like your discipline starts to slip away, or maybe even you catch yourself thinking about entering without entry pattern or risk more than usual - realize that's your "monkey brain" stepping in. It's very hard to control, but easy to trick. Here's what you should do. Say to yourself: "Ok, I'll do whatever I like, place any kind of trade with the risk of half of the account if I want, BUT after 20 min. pass." Then you just start a timer (you can google "timer 20 min.") and do whatever you like after that 20 minutes. Usually what happens is you calm down and don't do stupid things. It very simple but effective technique.
🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀
💬Send your comments and questions below, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
Dima
HORIZONTAL LINES ORDER LIMIT STRATEGYSTYLE 1 PIXEL
dotted line...level
STYLE 2 PIXEL
dotted line...buy limit order
dashed line...sell limit order
text (solid or dashed line) = position
STYLE 3 PIXEL
dotted line...buy stop limit order
dashed line...sell stop limit order
text (solid or dashed line) = position
FLOW
01 level
02 buy limit order
03 position
04 sell limit order
05 level
06 sell stop limit order
07 buy stop limit order
08 level
09 position
10 buy limit order
11 sell limit order
12 sell stop limit order
13 buy stop limit order
STEP 1 to MASTER TRADING: Hindsight trading. Train your eyes.A common mistake that traders make after learning any kind of trading setup is jumping into backtesting using a replay tool, or even live trading.
However, if you think about it, trading is very much about pattern recognition. And when you force yourself into live trading without a proper understanding of what your patterns look like, most likely you’ll need much more time to succeed.
A different approach and much more effective would be using hindsight, that’s when you see what actually happened.
During this process, try to find at least 50 high-quality setups, that represent your trading system. So you actually see everything that happened and find situations, where your edge played out, document it in your journal. That’s great training for your eyes and brain.
You don’t need to guess, you will not feel anything, because you already see what happened, you’ll notice that sometimes your edge, your system doesn’t give you entries and price goes without you, sometimes, you’ll see a loser or a breakeven after your entry, start to get used to this, as it’s all part of your system.
After that, you'll have a much better understanding and vision for your setup - and that could be the time to try some backtesting and forwardtesting.
I’ll talk more about a different kind of backtesting in future posts. Meanwhile, take care, send your questions, and comments, will be glad to chat with you.
Dima
Strong Trading Strategy, Do not trust all the pin barsThe pin bar pattern is one of the best signals on any market for predicting the next move. But should you trust all pin bars? In my humble opinion, NO, and I’m explaining this idea below and the approach I take to distinguish valid pin bars from invalid ones.
I suppose you already know what is a pin bar, so I’ll not explain its basic details here. If you don’t know please, do a search and read its basics first.
I have 3 filters for my pin bars. Find them below and boost the idea if you liked it :)
1- What should it look like?
In my opinion, having a candle with a shadow (wick) longer than the other and a small body is not the only factor to call it a pin bar. I filter pin bars by expecting some pre-defined proportions and ratios between body size and shadow lengths. Here are my rules:
The body must be at least 2% of the candle height.
The long shadow must be at least 4 times bigger than the body.
The long shadow must be at least 2 times bigger than the short shadow.
I know you are rightly thinking about how to calculate them, but do not! There is a simple indicator that does this calculation and highlights the pin bars for you, the Abnormal Pin Bar indicator . You just need to set it up with your values. You can even set up an alert to let you know when a pin bar is shaped.
These are my rules and values that fit my strategy, you can use them. Also you can do your own tests to find the values that fit your psychology and your strategy. You can say you prefer a pin bar that has a bigger body than yours! it’s okay, just do your own tests to make sure it works for you.
2- What is behind that?
Always inspect the smaller timeframe to check if the sub-candles that shaped the pin bar confirm its bearishness or bullishness. Yes, you should always see the big picture but remember, all the moves start from smaller timeframes. You shouldn't expect too much from a movement with bad groundwork.
For a bullish pin bar, its bullish sub-candles must overcome the price action and volumes of its bearish ones, and on the other hand, for a bearish pin bar, its bearish sub-candles must surpass the price action and volumes of its bullish sub-candles.
It would be nice to write a long and detailed article about bearish and bullish sub-candles competition and when they overcome each other. It's not something you decide just by comparing the number of bullish and bearish sub-candles! Long story short, it’s all Price Action and Volume Analysis. and my favorite one is when the volume of sub-candles in one direction surpasses the volume of the candles in the opposite direction. Or you can look for volume and price anomalies.
What is the volume and price anomaly?
The volume and price anomaly is a simple pattern that occurs in two consecutive candles. Assuming two descending candles or two ascending candles in a row, if the body of one candle is bigger than the other one, we expect its volume to be larger, or if the body of one of them is smaller, we expect its volume to be small. Now, if this pattern is not observed for two consecutive candles, we call it a volume and price anomaly.
For example, a candle has a larger body than the previous candle, but its volume is smaller than the previous candle. Or a candle that has a smaller body than the previous candle, but its volume is greater than the volume of the previous candle!
Anomaly Confirmation Candle:
In most cases, after the volume anomaly, I wait for a confirmation candle. This candle will be a bearish candle for a bullish anomaly and will be a bullish candle for a bearish anomaly. The volume of the confirmation candle is very important in anomaly, and in addition to its shape and size, you should also pay attention to its volume.
I just explained the anomaly here to give you a point of view and perspective. I don't want to make this idea overlong so I do not go into more details. Maybe it would be a subject for another idea ;)
In which timeframe should the inspection be done?
You will understand which timeframe you should choose to inspect a pin bar sub-candles by experiencing it over time, but I personally consider two things:
1- The timeframe must be well-known and be used by not only me but also by most traders.
2- It must contain at least 4 sub-candles. e.g. for a daily pin bar, 12h reveals only 2 sub-candles while 4h reveals 6.
For example, for a closed daily pin bar, it would be a good check to inspect candles for the 4h timeframe. or after a weekly pin bar close, you can check the candles of the last 7 days.
Consider this instruction and practice on the chart to see the result.
If one of the pin bars in sub-candles is also a pin bar, do the same inspection for it.
3- On there any key level around?
A pin bar is an important pattern but one that touches a trend line or any important level is leading! The combination of a key level and a valid pin bar is something very valuable and instructive. It's definitely not to be missed, provided you do your own analyses.
Prioritising trend lines and important levels always makes my decision easier when a pin bar spawns near to more than one significant level.
Check twice if you face a pin bar in peaks, troughs, resistance or support areas, supply and demand zones, or as a rejection from a trend line.
You can use the Trend Key Point indicator to highlight important levels. Additionally, there is a guide about its usage .
Bonus Tips:
Pin bars on bigger timeframes are more reliable.
If there are lots of pin bars shaped on a chart, think twice, select a bigger timeframe, or do not use this strategy on that specific asset.
For two valid pin bars in a row, the one with a bigger volume is more important to me.
Check twice if the volume of a pin bar is bigger than the volume average.
Check twice if the volume of a pin bar is bigger than the volume of its previous candle.
Do you have any questions? ask in the comments.
Do not hesitate to write your opinion about this idea.
I'd appreciate if you share this idea with your network.
RSI Overbought & Oversold Strategy
What Is the Relative Strength Index (RSI)?
1. The relative strength index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator introduced in 1978.
2. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100.
3. An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30.
4. The RSI line crossing below the overbought line or above the oversold line is often seen by traders as a signal to buy or sell.
5. The RSI works best in trading ranges rather than trending markets.
Martingale Strategy
Martingale Strategy
1. The Martingale Strategy is a strategy of investing or betting introduced by French mathematician Paul Pierre Levy.
2. It is considered a risky method of investing.
3. It is based on the theory of increasing the amount allocated for investments, even if its value is falling, in expectation of a future increase.
4. When the Martingale Strategy is used in trading, the trader must double the position size when faced with a loss.
5. The Martingale system is a methodology to amplify the chance of recovering from losing streaks.
6. The amount spent on trading can reach huge proportions after just a few transactions.
7. If the trader runs out of funds and exits the trade while using the strategy, the losses faced can be disastrous.
8. The risk-to-reward ratio of the Martingale Strategy is not reasonable.
Calculating the Breakeven Point (BEP)
1. Current Total Investment = (1*BTC@49348.17) + (2*BTC@39342.32) + (4*BTC@21117.39) = 212502.25
2. Breakeven Point = Current Total Investment / (Total Number of BTC) = 212502.25 / 7 = 30357.48
50 Day Moving Average Strategy
TRADE ENTRY
1. To enter a 50-day moving average trade, you should wait for a breakout.
2. Whenever the price breaks the 50-day SMA, you should open a trade in the direction of the breakout.
3. In most cases, the price action will continue in the direction of the breakout.
STOP LOSS
1. If the price breaks the 50 SMA upwards, we need to go long, placing a stop below a bottom prior to the breakout. The opposite is true for bearish trades.
2. If the price breaks the 50 SMA downwards, we need to short the stock placing a stop below the bottom prior to the breakout.
PROFIT TARGETS
1. Hold your trades until the price action breaks your 50-day moving average in the direction opposite to your trade.
2. If you are long, you close the trade when the price breaks the 50-day SMA downwards.
3. If you are short, you close the trade when the price breaks the 50-day SMA upwards.
CONCLUSION
1. Stock price above the 50-day moving average is usually considered bullish.
2. Stock price below the 50-day moving average is usually considered bearish.
3. If the price meets the 50 day SMA as support and bounces upwards, consider a long entry.
4. Stock price meets the 50-day SMA as resistance and bounces downwards, consider a short entry.
5. If the price breaks the 50-day SMA downwards, you should switch your opinion to bearish.
6. If the price breaks the 50-day SMA upward, you should switch your opinion to bullish.