Trading Without an Edge Is Like Gambling Without the FunAt least in Vegas, you get free drinks.
Let’s cut the fluff.
You want to make money trading.
But here’s the problem no one wants to admit:
Most traders don’t have an edge. And they trade anyway.
Which means they’re not traders.
They’re just expensive gamblers in denial.
🎰 W elcome to the Casino Called “Charts”
In Vegas, the odds are clearly displayed.
You know the house has the advantage.
But in trading? You convince yourself you are the house.
You say things like:
-“This setup worked for someone on YouTube.”
- “Price is oversold, so it has to bounce.”
- “I just have a feeling it’ll go up.”
That’s not a strategy. That’s astrology.
If you can’t define your edge in one sentence, you don’t have one.
And if your edge isn’t tested over at least 100 trades — it’s fantasy.
🧠 What Is an Edge, Anyway?
An edge is not a pattern. It’s not always your gut.
It’s a repeatable, testable advantage in the market.
It could be:
- A statistical tendency in price behavior
- A setup with positive risk-to-reward over time
- A timing structure that aligns with volume or volatility
- Even psychological edge (you stay calm when others panic)
But here’s the key:
An edge is something that works often enough, with controlled risk, and consistent execution.
☠️ What Happens When You Don’t Have One
Let’s break it down.
Trading without an edge leads to:
- Random outcomes that feel emotional
- Overtrading because you’re chasing the next “feel good” moment
- Misplaced confidence after a few lucky wins
- Explosive losses when luck runs out
And worst of all?
You think you’re improving…
But in reality, you’re just getting better at losing slower.
🍹 At Least Vegas Gives You Something Back
Here’s the irony:
In Vegas, the drinks are free.
You get a show. You laugh. You know it’s a gamble.
In trading?
- You pay for your losses
- You pay for your education
- You pay for your psychology coach
- And nobody even gives you a free mojito.
If you're going to lose money without an edge, you might as well enjoy the music.
🎯 So How Do You Actually Get an Edge?
1. Backtest.
Find a setup that repeats. Track it. Chart it. Obsess over it.
2. Track your stats.
Your win rate, average R, time in trade. Know thyself.
3. Simplify.
An edge isn’t 12 indicators. It’s one thing done well.
4. Survive first, thrive later.
If you’re not around after 100 trades, your edge won’t matter anyway.
5. Learn from pain, not just profit.
Your losers have more to teach than your winners.
🧘 Final Thought – Stop Playing Pretend
If you wouldn’t go to a casino and bet $1000 on 25 without knowing the odds…
Why are you doing that in the markets?
Don’t call it trading if it’s actually coping.
Don’t call it strategy if it’s actually guessing.
Trading Tools
How to Choose Chart Types in TradingViewThis tutorial covers the 21 chart types available in TradingView, explaining what each one is, how to read it, as well as the advantages and drawbacks.
Learn more about trading futures with Optimus Futures using the TradingView platform here: www.optimusfutures.com
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
Understanding VWAP In TradingWhat is VWAP?
VWAP is a price benchmark that gives more importance to prices where higher trading volume occurs. Unlike simple moving averages, which treat each price point equally, VWAP provides a volume-weighted perspective, making it more representative of market activity.
Traders use VWAP to gauge market trends, confirm trade entries and exits, and measure the quality of executions relative to the market's liquidity.
How Institutional Traders Use VWAP
Large financial institutions and mutual funds execute large orders over time to minimize their market impact.
VWAP helps them:
Achieve better execution by ensuring their orders are filled at a price close to the session's average.
Reduce market impact by avoiding aggressive buying or selling at extreme price points.
Gauge liquidity and time their orders efficiently.
Role of VWAP in Algorithmic Trading
VWAP is integral to algorithmic trading strategies that automate order execution.
Algorithms use VWAP in:
VWAP Trading Strategies: Algorithms execute orders in line with VWAP to avoid moving the market.
Mean Reversion Trading: Traders look for deviations from VWAP, buying when the price is below and selling when it is above.
Liquidity-Based Order Execution: Algorithms track VWAP to execute trades more efficiently, particularly in high-frequency trading (HFT).
Why VWAP is a Critical Benchmark for Intraday Traders
For short-term traders, VWAP provides key insights into market behavior:
Trend Confirmation: If the price is above VWAP, it indicates bullish sentiment; below VWAP suggests bearish conditions.
Entry and Exit Points: Traders use VWAP as support/resistance for trade decisions.
Institutional Footprint: Retail traders track VWAP to understand where large orders might be executing.
Since VWAP resets daily, it remains a highly relevant indicator for gauging intraday momentum and trend strength.
Calculation
Where:
Price = (High + Low + Close) / 3 (Typical Price for each period)
Volume = The total number of shares/contracts traded in the period
Understanding How VWAP is Calculated:
Calculate the Typical Price (TP): TP=High+Low+Close/3
Multiply TP by Volume for each time period to get the Cumulative Price-Volume product.
Sum the Price-Volume values cumulatively throughout the day.
Divide by the cumulative volume up to that time.
Since VWAP is cumulative from the market open, it resets at the start of each trading day.
Difference Between VWAP and Moving Averages
VWAP
Volume-weighted
Resets daily
Determines fair value in a session
Reacts to volume spikes
Moving Averages (SMA/EMA)
Equal-weighted (SMA) or Exponentially weighted (EMA)
Continuous across multiple sessions
Identifies overall trend direction
Reacts to price changes
How to Interpret VWAP
When the price is above VWAP: It suggests that the market is in an uptrend, and VWAP may act as support if the price retraces.
When the price is below VWAP: It signals a downtrend, and VWAP may act as resistance if the price attempts to rise.
Reclaiming VWAP: If the price moves below VWAP but then breaks back above it, this could signal a bullish reversal. The opposite is true for a bearish scenario.
VWAP and Market Trend Identification
Uptrend: If the price remains consistently above VWAP and VWAP itself is sloping upward, the market is in an uptrend.
Downtrend: If the price stays below VWAP and VWAP is sloping downward, the market is in a downtrend.
Sideways Market: If the price oscillates around VWAP and VWAP remains flat, the market is range-bound.
VWAP Standard Deviations (Bands) and Their Significance
First Standard Deviation (VWAP ±1σ)
Represents a normal fluctuation around VWAP.
Prices bouncing within this range indicate balanced market activity.
Second Standard Deviation (VWAP ±2σ)
Suggests stronger price movement.
A move beyond this level may indicate an overbought (above VWAP) or oversold (below VWAP) condition.
Third Standard Deviation (VWAP ±3σ)
Extreme price movement; rarely sustained.
A reversion back toward VWAP is highly likely.
Misinterpreting VWAP Signals
Many traders assume that VWAP alone dictates market direction. However, simply being above or below VWAP does not automatically mean the market is bullish or bearish. Market structure, momentum, and external factors such as news events or institutional order flows must also be considered.
How to Avoid It?
Look for Confirmation: Use VWAP in combination with price action and other indicators, such as volume, market structure, and momentum oscillators (e.g., RSI or MACD).
Check the Trend of VWAP: If VWAP is sloping upward and price is above it, this signals strength. Conversely, a downward-sloping VWAP with price below it indicates weakness.
Observe Price Interaction with VWAP: If the price consistently bounces off VWAP and continues in the trend direction, it confirms its role as dynamic support or resistance. If the price frequently crosses VWAP back and forth without clear direction, it signals a choppy, range-bound market.
Strategies
VWAP Bounce
If the price pulls back to VWAP and holds, traders may look for a long entry (in an uptrend) or a short entry (in a downtrend).
Stop-loss orders are often placed slightly beyond VWAP in case of a trend reversal.
VWAP Breakout
If the price consolidates near VWAP and then breaks out strongly, traders may enter in the direction of the breakout.
A sustained break above VWAP signals strength, while a break below VWAP signals weakness.
VWAP as a Reversion Point
Traders monitor price deviations from VWAP. If the price moves too far from VWAP, a reversion trade back toward VWAP may be expected.
Key Takeaways
VWAP Represents Fair Value – It calculates the average price of a security, weighted by volume, giving traders insight into where most of the trading activity has occurred.
Intraday Benchmark – VWAP resets daily and is primarily used by intraday traders and institutions to assess whether prices are trading at a premium or discount.
Support and Resistance Tool – VWAP often acts as dynamic support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends, helping traders make entry and exit decisions.
Institutional Trading Guide – Large institutions use VWAP to execute orders efficiently, minimizing market impact and ensuring better fills.
VWAP vs. Moving Averages – Unlike moving averages, which continue across multiple sessions, VWAP is cumulative from the market open and resets each day.
Trend Confirmation – Price above a rising VWAP signals a strong uptrend, while price below a declining VWAP suggests a downtrend.
Avoid Over-Reliance – While useful, VWAP should be combined with volume analysis, price action, and other indicators to avoid false signals.
VWAP Bands for Overbought/Oversold Levels – Standard deviation bands around VWAP can help identify price extremes and potential mean reversion setups.
VWAP is more than just an average—it's the heartbeat of market sentiment, revealing where true liquidity and fair value align.
Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
Learn What Time Frame to Trade. Gold Forex Trading Basics
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering how to choose a trading time frame.
In the today's post, I will go through the common time frames, and explain when to apply them.
1m; 5m, 15m Time Frames
These 4 t.f's are very rapid and are primarily applied by scalpers .
If your goal is to catch quick ebbs and flows within a trading session, that is a perfect selection for you.
30m, 1H Time Frame
These 2 are perfectly suited for day traders.
Executing the analysis and opening the trades on these time frames,
you will be able to catch the moves within a trading day.
4h, Daily Time Frames
These time frames are relatively slow .
They are mostly applied by swing traders, who aim to trade the moves that last from several days to several weeks.
Weekly, Monthly Time Frames
These time frames reveal long-term historical perspective and are mostly used by investors and position traders.
If your goal is to look for buy & hold assets, these time frames will help you to make a reasonable decision.
📝When you are choosing a time frame to trade, consider the following factors :
1️⃣ - Time Availability
How much time daily/weekly are you able to sacrifice on trading?
Remember a simple rule: lower is the time frame, more time it requires for management.
2️⃣ - Risk Tolerance
Smaller time frames usually involve higher risk,
while longer-term time frames are considered to be more conservative and stable.
3️⃣ - Your Trading Goals
If you are planning to benefit from short term price fluctuations you should concentrate your attention on lower time frames,
while investing and long-term capital accumulation suite for higher time frames.
Time frame selection is nuanced and a complex topic. However, I believe that these simple rules and factors will help you to correctly choose the one for you.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
How to Read Market Depth in TradingViewThis tutorial video covers what Depth of Market (Market Depth) is, how to read it, and how traders might use it.
Learn more about trading futures with Optimus Futures using the TradingView platform here: optimusfutures.com/Platforms/TradingView.php
Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
Order flow and DOM data reflect market participant activity but do not guarantee future price movement or execution certainty. These tools are best used as part of a broader trading strategy that includes risk management and market understanding.
How to Use Stop Losses in TradingViewThis video covers stop loss orders, explaining what they are, why traders use them, and how to set them up in TradingView.
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a "stop-loss" or "stop-limit" order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.
Trading Gold? Know the Difference Between XAU/USD and Futures🔎 Let’s address a question I get very often:
“Should I trade spot gold (XAU/USD) or Gold futures?”
It might sound like a technical decision, but it’s actually about how you approach the market, your risk profile, and your experience level.
So let’s break it down 👇
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🟡 Two ways to trade the same asset
Both spot and futures allow you to speculate on the price of Gold. But they’re two very different beasts when it comes to execution, capital, and strategy.
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1️⃣ Spot gold (XAU/USD)
• Traded mostly via Forex brokers or CFD platforms
• No expiration — you can hold the position as long as you want
• Often used by retail traders for day trading or swing setups
• You can open small trades (even 0.01 lots)
• Costs include spread, swap fees if you hold overnight
• Leverage is usually high — up to 1:100 or more
• Margin is required, but typically lower than in futures
💡 Spot is flexible and accessible, but you pay the price through overnight holding costs, wider spreads during volatility, and slippage. On some brokers, especially during high-impact news, your platform might even freeze or delay execution — and that’s a serious risk if you’re not prepared.
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2️⃣ Gold futures (GC)
• Traded on major futures exchanges like CME
• Contracts have a fixed size (usually 100 oz)
• They expire monthly, so you need to manage rollovers
• Common among hedge funds and experienced traders
• You pay commissions and exchange fees, but no swaps
• Margin is required here too — but it's much higher
💡 Futures are structured and professional — but they demand more capital, stricter execution discipline, and higher margin requirements. Just like in spot trading, margin is a collateral deposit, not a cost — but with futures, the bar is set higher.
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⚖️ So, which one is for you?
If you're using MetaTrader or any platform offered by a Forex/CFD broker, and you're a scalper, intraday, or swing trader working with flexible position sizes...
→ You're probably better off with spot gold (XAU/USD).
If you're trading big volume, managing diversified portfolios, or involved in hedging large exposure...
→ You should consider futures — but expect to level up your game, capital requirements, and discipline.
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🧠 Mindset:
Don’t confuse accessibility with simplicity.
Just because spot Gold is easier to open doesn’t mean it’s always the best choice.
Just because futures look “pro-level” doesn’t mean they’re always worth it for a retail trader.
Understand your tools. Pick the one that aligns with your structure. That’s how you stay in the game. 🎯
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📚 Hope this cleared it up. If you want me to cover execution setups for each one, let me know in the comments.
Positive Psychology in TradingTrading isn’t just about numbers, charts, or quick decisions. It’s an intense emotional experience, a constant mental challenge, and often a major source of stress.
That’s why more traders are turning to positive psychology—a modern psychological approach that explores what makes people thrive, even under pressure and uncertainty.
What is Positive Psychology?
Founded by Martin Seligman, positive psychology focuses on positive emotions, strengths, and the conditions that lead to a fulfilling life. Unlike traditional approaches that look at “what’s wrong,” it asks: What’s going right? and How can we build on it?
The PERMA model (Positive Emotion, Engagement, Relationships, Meaning, Achievement) serves as a powerful framework—even in the world of trading.
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How Does It Apply to Trading?
1. Positive Emotions – Calm Before the Click
Trading isn’t about euphoria or panic—it’s about equilibrium. Cultivating positive emotions like gratitude or realistic optimism helps you:
• Reduce impulsivity
• Build emotional resilience
• Make clearer decisions under pressure
Try this: At the end of each trading day, write down 3 things that went well and why. This trains your brain to see progress, not just mistakes.
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2. Engagement (Flow) – Get in the Zone
Flow is that state of complete absorption in what you're doing. In trading, it means:
• Deep focus without mental fatigue
• Quick yet thoughtful decisions
• A fulfilling experience, win or lose
How to reach it? Schedule short, focused trading sessions with no distractions and a clear plan.
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3. Positive Relationships – You’re Not Alone
Trading can be solitary—and at times, frustrating. A positive community of fellow traders can:
• Reduce isolation
• Offer constructive feedback
• Boost your motivation
Pro tip: Join a trading group that values learning and support, not just fast wins.
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4. Meaning – Why Do You Trade?
Without a deeper why, trading becomes a stressful gamble. When you have a clear sense of purpose (financial freedom, personal growth, discipline), it’s easier to:
• Stay consistent during drawdowns
• Stick to your plan
• Avoid burnout
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5. Achievement – Celebrate the Process, Not Just the Profits
Positive psychology emphasizes progress over perfection. In trading, this might mean:
• A full week of disciplined trades = success
• Following your strategy = a win
• Avoiding overtrading = growth
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Final Thoughts
Positive psychology isn’t about “happy thoughts” or ignoring risk. It’s about building a resilient, balanced, and healthy mindset—a crucial asset for any long-term trader.
If you want to become a high-performing trader, don’t focus only on strategies and charts. Learn to master your emotions, develop your inner strengths, and trade with purpose.
How to Set Custom Alerts for Futures Trading in TradingViewThis tutorial video demonstrates how to access and add custom alerts for futures and other types of trading as well as manage those alerts.
Learn more about trading futures with Optimus Futures using the TradingView platform here: optimusfutures.com
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
How to Use Drawing Tools on TradingViewThis tutorial video discusses why and how traders use different types of trading tools, how to access the trading tools in Tradingview, and a few examples of how and why you might apply them.
Learn more about using Tradingview to trade futures with Optimus Futures:
optimusfutures.com
Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
How to Set Up Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTF) in TradingViewThis tutorial video explains what a time frame is, why traders use multiple time frames for their analysis, and how to set them up in TradingView for futures and other products.
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
Stop Watching Your Trades All Day!How to Break Free from Screen Addiction and Become a More Focused, Profitable Trader
Have you ever found yourself glued to your screens, watching every tick of the market, feeling your stress levels spike with every price fluctuation?
If so, you’re not alone.
Most traders, at some point, fall into this trap.
It feels productive, even necessary, to monitor your trades constantly.
But the reality is that it’s one of the most damaging habits you can develop.
In this article, I’ll show you why this behavior is hurting your trading results and how to break free from it, so you can trade smarter, stress less, and live more.
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⚠️ The Cortisol Trap – Why Watching Every Tick is a Psychological Minefield
Every time you check the market and see a fluctuation in your trades, your body releases cortisol, the primary stress hormone.
While cortisol is useful in fight-or-flight situations (like dodging a car on the street), it’s terrible for trading.
Here’s why:
• Cortisol reduces rational thinking – It pushes your brain into reactive mode, not analytical mode.
• It triggers impulsivity – You become more likely to close winning trades too early or move your stop loss in desperation.
• It burns your mental energy – Leaving you drained, unfocused, and emotionally volatile.
Simply put: Too much screen time = too much cortisol = bad trading decisions.
If you want to win consistently, you need to break this cycle.
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🎯 Distraction from Higher Priorities – Why Trading Should Be a Part of Life, Not All of It
Trading is meant to give you freedom — not steal it.
Yet, too many traders become slaves to the screen, obsessing over every tick.
But here’s the truth:
You don’t need to be in front of your screen all day to be a great trader.
In fact, doing so can rob you of the mental clarity and emotional balance needed for high-quality trading.
When you step away from the charts:
• You give your strategic mind time to work,
• You focus on other important aspects of life — family, health, personal growth,
• You develop a longer-term perspective on the market, which is crucial for real success.
Balance is the key to sustainable success, both in trading and in life.
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✅ 3 Benefits of Breaking Free from Screen Addiction
✅ Benefit #1: Better Decision-Making
When you stop reacting to every tick:
• You make calmer, more rational trading decisions,
• You avoid low-probability setups and revenge trading,
• You focus on quality over quantity.
Instead of jumping on every tiny move, you become a strategic sniper in the market, waiting for high-probability setups.
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🧘 Benefit #2: Improved Quality of Life
Life is not just about trading.
Reducing screen time frees you up for other meaningful activities:
• Exercise,
• Hobbies,
• Time with family and friends.
A well-rounded life supports better mental health, which, in turn, improves your trading performance.
Remember, a clear mind is a profitable mind.
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⏱️ Benefit #3: Increased Productivity
Believe it or not, less screen time = more productivity.
Why?
Because you’ll:
• Spend less time reacting and more time preparing,
• Conserve your mental energy for important decisions,
• Create time for deep market analysis instead of random impulse trades.
This disciplined approach leads to better trading outcomes over time.
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🔔 How to Trade with Less Screen Time – 3 Practical Step s
🔔 Action #1: Use Alerts Wisely
Instead of staring at charts all day, let technology work for you:
• Set alerts at key price levels,
• Use trading apps to get notifications when your levels are hit,
• Let the market come to you — not the other way around.
Example: If you want to buy Gold at 3200 support, set an alert and go for a walk.
You’ll be notified when price approaches, so you can act, not react.
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📅 Action #2: Create a Balanced Schedule
Build a daily routine that includes more than just trading:
• Morning exercise,
• Reading or journaling,
• Spending time with loved ones,
• Working on long-term goals.
When you’re mentally balanced, you’ll trade better and more profitably.
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📊 Action #3: Review Your Trading Plan Regularly
Spend time reviewing your trades instead of watching them:
• Look at your journal,
• Analyze your stats,
• Identify mistakes and strengths.
This should only take once a week — and it’s far more valuable than hours of pointless screen time.
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🧠 Final Words
As the saying goes:
“Sometimes, less is more.”
Stop watching your trades all day.
Lower your stress, regain your focus, and remember why you started trading in the first place — to build wealth and live freely, not to become a slave to the screen.
Trade well.
Build wealth.
Live fully. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
You want to be a trader but you have a 9-5 Educational purpose only. You want to be a day trader but can't trade market open because you have a job or you are too busy. The daily bar can give you just as much profits as the 5 min charts. In this video ill teach you how to find support and resistance zone on any market. Opening a line chart starting from the weekly and then looking for areas where price has repeatedly reverse gives you a clue of where price may go in the future on a daily chart. Watch till the end to see how this strategy is applied to all markets.
How to Set Up and Use OCO Orders on TradingViewThis tutorial video explains what OCO (Order cancels orders) are, how they work, how to place them in Tradingview, and how they relate to bracket orders.
You'll learn how to add them to new entry orders as well as existing positions.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
Your ULTIMATE Guide For Time Frames in Gold, Forex Trading
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering what time frames to trade. In the today's post, I will reveal the difference between mainstream time frames like daily, 4h, 1h, 15m.
Firstly, you should know that the selection of a time frame primarily depends on your goals in trading. If you are interested in swing trading strategies, of course, you should concentrate on higher time frames analysis while for scalping the main focus should be on lower time frames.
Daily time frame shows a bigger picture.
It can be applied for the analysis of a price action for the last weeks, months, and even years.
It reveals the historical key levels that can be relevant for swing traders, day traders and scalpers.
The patterns that are formed on a daily time frame may predict long-term movements.
In the picture above, you can see how the daily time frame can show the price action for the last years, months and weeks.
In contrast, hourly time frame reflects intra week & intraday perspectives.
The patterns and key levels that are spotted there, will be important for day traders and scalpers.
The setups that are spotted on an hourly time frame, will be useful for predicting the intraday moves and occasionally the moves within a trading week.
Take a look at the 2 charts above, the hourly time frame perfectly shows the market moves within a week and within a single day.
4H time frame is somewhere in between. For both swing trader and day trader, it may provide some useful confirmations.
4H t.f shows intra week and week to week perspectives.
Above, you can see how nicely 4H time frame shows the price action on EURUSD within a week and for the last several weeks.
15 minutes time frame is a scalping time frame.
The setups and levels that are spotted there can be used to predict the market moves within hours or within a trading session.
Check the charts above: 15 minutes time frame shows both the price action within a London session and the price action for the last couple of hours.
It is also critical to mention, that lower is the time frame, lower is the accuracy of the patterns and lower is the strength of key levels that are identified there. It makes higher time frame analysis more simple and reliable.
The thing is that higher is the time frame, more important it is for the market participants.
While lower time frames can help to predict short term moves, higher time frames are aimed for predicting long-term trends.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Trading Psychology Trap: The Dark Side of Hedging a Bad Trade⚡ Important Clarification Before We Begin
In professional trading, real hedging involves sophisticated strategies using derivatives like options, futures, or other financial instruments.
Banks, funds, and major institutions hedge to manage portfolio risk, based on calculated models and complex scenarios.
This article is not about that.
We are talking about the kind of "hedging" retail traders do — opening an opposite position at the broker to "protect" a losing trade.
It may feel smart in the moment, but psychologically, it can be a hidden trap that damages your trading discipline.
Let’s dive into why emotional hedging rarely works for independent traders.
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In trading, there’s a moment of panic that every trader has faced:
"My short position is in the red… maybe I’ll just open a long to balance it out."
It feels logical. You’re hedging. Protecting yourself. But in reality, you might be stepping into one of the most deceptive psychological traps in trading.
Let’s unpack why emotional hedging is rarely a good idea—and how it quietly sabotages your progress.
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🧠 1. Emotional Relief ≠ Strategic Thinking
Hedging often arises not from a solid strategy, but from emotional discomfort.
You don’t hedge because you’ve analyzed the market. You hedge because you can’t stand the pain of a losing position.
This is not trading.
This is emotional anesthesia.
You’re trying to feel better—not trade better.
________________________________________
🎭 2. The Illusion of Control
Opening a hedge feels like taking back control.
In reality, you’re multiplying complexity without clarity.
You now have:
• Two opposing positions
• No clear directional bias
• An unclear exit strategy
You’ve replaced one problem (a loss) with two: mental conflict and strategic confusion.
________________________________________
🎢 3. Emotional Volatility Rises Sharply
With two positions open in opposite directions:
• You root for both sides at once.
• You feel relief when one wins, and stress when the other loses.
• Your mind becomes a battleground, not a trading desk.
This emotional volatility leads to irrational decisions, fatigue, and trading paralysis.
________________________________________
🔄 4. You Delay the Inevitable
When you hedge a losing position, you don’t fix the mistake.
You prolong it.
Eventually, you’ll have to:
• Close one side
• Add to one side
• Or exit both at the wrong moment
Hedging here is just postponed decision-making—and it gets harder the longer you wait.
________________________________________
🧪 5. You Build a Dangerous Habit
Hedging out of fear creates a reflex:
"Every time I’m losing, I’ll hedge."
You’re not learning to cut losses or reassess your strategy.
You’re learning to panic-protect.
And over time, you start to rely on hedging as a crutch—rather than developing real confidence and discipline.
________________________________________
✅ The Healthier Alternative
What should you do instead?
• Cut the loss.
• Review the trade.
• Wait for a fresh setup that aligns with your plan.
Accepting a losing trade is hard. But it’s a sign of maturity, not weakness.
Hedging may feel clever in the moment, but long-term consistency comes from clarity, not complication.
________________________________________
🎯 Final Thought
Emotional hedging isn’t about strategy.
It’s about fear.
The best traders don’t hedge to escape a loss.
They manage risk before the trade starts —and have the courage to close what’s not working.
Don’t fall into the illusion of safety.
Master the art of decisive action. That’s where real edge lives. 🚀
How To Customize The 1 Minute Scalping IndicatorThis tutorial explains each setting of the 1 Minute Scalping Indicator in detail so you understand exactly how to adjust your settings to get the results you would like from the indicator.
Here is a list of the details we discuss:
How to fix loading errors
Tooltips that explain each setting for your reference
Trade modes and how they are affected by other settings
Average candle size rejection parameters
Higher timeframe candle filters, settings and levels
External indicator trend filtering capabilities and how to set them up correctly
Stoploss and take profit calculations and settings you can adjust
Signal arrow customization options
Candle coloring adjustments
Visual/styling options
Make sure to watch the whole video so you fully understand how each setting affects the indicator for best results.
Why Should You Care About ER?🚀 Hey Traders! Have You Ever Felt Lost in the Chaos of Market Fluctuations?
What if I told you there’s a powerful tool that can help you cut through the noise and give you a statistical edge to predict SUPPORT and RESISTANCE movements with confidence?
Let me take 5 minutes of your time to introduce you to something that could transform your trading game: Expected Range Volatility (ER) .
What is Expected Range Volatility (ER)?
The Expected Range (ER) is a framework that helps traders understand how much an asset is likely to move within a specific timeframe. Based on CME market data and Nobel Prize-winning calculations, price movements within the expected volatility corridor have a 68% probability of staying within those boundaries.
💡 Key Insight: When the price approaching certain levels, there’s a 68% chance the price won’t break through those boundaries. This means you can use ER as a powerful filter to identify more precise entry and exit points for your trades.
Why Should You Care About ER?
When I first discovered the ER tool, it felt like stumbling upon a gold mine in the trading world. Here’s why:
It’s free and available on the CME exchange’s website.
It’s underutilized —95% of traders don’t even know it exists.
It provides statistical clarity in a world full of uncertainty.
I remember the first time I used ER in my analysis—it completely changed the way I approached intraday trading. Now, I never make a trade without checking the ER data. It’s become an essential part of my strategy.
How to Use ER in Your Trading
1️⃣ Input the Data: Head over to the CME website, plug in the necessary parameters, and get your ER values.
2️⃣ Set Boundaries: Use the ER range as a guide to set potential support and resistance levels.
3️⃣ Filter Trades: Only take trades that align with the ER framework to improve your precision.
A recent example is the Japanese yen futures market.
Don't be confused by the fact that we take futures levels, it can easily be plotted on a spot chart for forex market (the dollar/yen).
Limitations to Keep in Mind
While ER is a powerful tool, it’s not a crystal ball. Here are some limitations:
Market Dynamics: Short-term price movements can be unpredictable due to sentiment, news, or economic events. ER provides a statistical estimate, but it doesn’t guarantee outcomes.
Assumptions: The formula assumes price movements follow a log-normal distribution , which may not hold true in all market conditions.
Your Turn: Are You Using ER in Your Strategy?
💭 Here’s the million-dollar question: Are you leveraging the power of Expected Range Volatility in your trading? If not, why not start today?
💬 Share your thoughts in the comments below:
Do you currently use ER or similar statistical tools?
Want to Dive Deeper?
If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level, don’t miss out on our all-in-one resource designed to help you master tools like ER and other valuable sources to gain market edge!
🔥 Remember:
No Valuable Data = No Edge!
How To Filter Signals On The 1 Minute Scalping IndicatorThis tutorial shows you how to use external indicators to filter out signals on the 1 Minute Scalping Indicator so that you only get signals that are in the direction of the trend.
Step By Step Process:
1. Pick an external indicator that provides an output value of 1 for bullish, -1 for bearish or 0 for neutral and add it to your chart. We have multiple indicators that can do this, but you can also customize your own indicators to provide this value and use that to filter out signals.
2. Set your desired trend parameters on your external indicator and make sure that indicator is on the same chart as the 1 Minute Scalping Indicator.
3. Go to the indicator settings for the 1 Minute Scalping Indicator and turn on one of the 3 available External Indicator Filters. Then from the dropdown menu, select the external indicator you want to use and make sure to choose the output value that gives the 1, -1 or 0 output for trends. Our indicators will have an output titled "Trend Direction To Send To External Indicators" to make that value easy to find in the dropdown menus.
That's it! Let the 1 Minute Scalping Indicator reload with the external indicator trend values and it will only show buy signals during bullish trends, only show sell signals during bearish trends or no signals during neutral markets. Make sure to back test your setup until you find the best external indicators and settings to use that work best for your trading style and then apply that setup to any chart you would like.
Here is the code you can use to add a trend value to your own custom indicators and send it to the 1 Minute Scalping Indicator:
trendDirection = 0
if close > ema1
trendDirection := 1
else if close < ema1
trendDirection := -1
else
trendDirection := 0
plot(trendDirection, title="Trend Direction To Send To External Indicators", color=#00000000, display=display.data_window)
Change the (close > ema1) and (close < ema1) to use your own variables from within your script.
What is ICT Order Block and How to Trade it
👉🏻 ICT order block is basically an area on the price chart which indicates the huge institutional orders and signals the strong reversal or continuation of price.
You can use the order block as a confirmation of your trade entry or for the reversal of price.
In this article, we will teach you all about order block trading strategy from definition to its identification and to use along with examples.
You can jump to the part of this guide, you are most interested in or you can continue reading the whole article :
Table of Contents 👇🏻
1 : What is ICT Order Block?
2 : Types of Order Block
3 : Bullish Order Block
4 : Bearish Order Block
5 : Bullish Order Block Trading Strategy
6 : Bearish Order Block Trading Strategy
7 : Final Thoughts
What is ICT Order Block? ⚡️
ICT Order block is the area in the price chart, where a large number of orders are executed by institutional traders in the market and market shows sudden strong move from that area.
Retail traders follow institutional foot prints, so they wait for these order block zones to buy or sell in the market & make profit along with big institutions like banks.
You can see the example of order blocks in the picture given below :
Types of Order Block
As you know market has two price moves bullish & bearish. So on the basis of price moves, order block is divided into two types.
(I) Bullish Order Block
(II) Bearish Order Block
Bullish Order Block
A bullish order block is the last bearish candle before the bullish impulse (strong sudden) move, it typically consist of two candles, with the first candlestick being a bearish and the second candlestick being a bullish one.
How to Identify a Bullish Order Block? ⚡️
To identify a valid bullish order block you need to check following things.
(I) Second candle being a bullish candle, should grab the low of previous bearish candle. Price should go below the low of previous bearish candle.
(II) Second candle being a Bullish candle should close above the high of previous bearish candle.
(III) Imbalance in lower time frame in the order block zone.
(IV) Structure shift in lower timeframe.
To sum it up we can say, second candle should completely engulf the first candle – body to body & wick to wick.
You can see the example of bullish order block in the picture below :
Bearish Order Block ⚡️
A bearish order block is the last bullish candle before the bearish impulse move, it typically consist of two candles, with the first candlestick being a bullish and the second candlestick being a bearish one.
How to Identify a Bearish Order Block? ⚡️
To identify a valid bearish order block you need to check following things.
(I) Second candle being a bearish candle, should grab the high of previous bullish candle. Price should go above the high of previous bearish candle.
(II) Second candle being a bearish candle should close below the low of previous bullish candle.
(III) Imbalance in lower timeframe in the order block zone.
(IV) ICT Market Structure Shift in lower timeframe.
To sum it up we can say second candle should completely engulf the first candle – body to body & wick to wick.
You can see the example of bearish order block in the picture below :
Bullish Order Block Trading Strategy ⚡️
In bullish order block trading strategy you would look for shift of price delivery from bearish to bullish and then execute a buy trade utilizing a bullish order block.
When the trend is bearish and it approaches a demand zone where you would seek reversal of price and at that area price shifts its structure to the buy-side.
Then you will be looking for the order block at the bottom of the impulse move which changed market trend.
When you find the bullish order block in that move, it means it was a move involving institutions so you need to wait for the price to test the bullish order block zone to execute a buy trade.
When price retraces back and tests the bullish order block zone you can execute a buy trade as shown in the picture below :
When tradin bullish Order block trading strategy your stop loss will be 10/20 pips below the low of order block zone.
Bearish Order Block Trading Strategy ⚡️
In bearish order block trading strategy you would be looking for the shift of trend from bullish to bearish and then execute a sell trade utilizing a bearish order block.
When market trend is bullish and it approaches a supply zone where you seek reversal of price and at that area price shifts its structure to the sell-side.
Then you would look for the order block at the bottom of the impulse move which changed price trend.
When you find a bearish order block in that move it means it was a move involving institutions so you need to wait for the price to test the bearish order block zone to execute a sell trade.
When price retrace back and tests the bearish order block zone you can execute a sell trade.
A real market example of bearish order block trading strategy is shown below in the picture.
Final Thoughts⚡️
When trading using bearish Order block trading strategy our stop loss will be 10/20 pips above the high of order block zone.
Order blocks can also be found in a trend after a pull back and these order blocks confirm the strength of trend. We can use these order blocks to trade the trend or to add new positions in the trend.
Like in a bearish trend after a bullish pullback a bearish order block may form, which confirms the strength of bearish trend and we can add a new sell order to enjoy the bearish trend.
Likewise in a bullish trend after a bearish pullback a bullish Order block may form which confirms the strength of bullish trend and we can add a new buy order to enjoy the bullish trend ❤️ .
What Is Momentum – And Why It’s Not Just a Trend IndicatorMost traders follow price — candles, trendlines, support/resistance. But there’s another layer that often tells the story before the price moves: momentum.
⸻
🔍 In this post, you’ll learn:
• What momentum really measures
• Why it’s not the same as price direction
• How momentum can signal a shift before the chart confirms it
• Why combining momentum with structure improves timing
⸻
📈 Momentum ≠ Direction
Price can be rising while momentum is fading. That’s often a clue of an upcoming slowdown or reversal — long before the price turns. Similarly, price can be flat, while momentum builds in one direction. That’s tension… and tension leads to moves.
⸻
🔥 Why Momentum Matters:
• It reveals intensity, not just direction
• It can act as a leading indicator — not lagging
• Momentum divergences often hint at hidden accumulation or distribution
• Tracking it helps you avoid late entries or false breakouts
⸻
🔧 Takeaway for traders:
If you’re only watching price, you’re only seeing half the picture.
Momentum shows what’s driving the move, and when that drive starts weakening.
⸻
💬 What’s your favorite momentum indicator? RSI, %R, CCI, or something else?
Understanding MACD In TradingThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that measures the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price. Developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s, MACD is designed to provide insights into both trend strength and momentum.
Unlike simple moving averages, which merely smooth price data over a specific period, MACD goes a step further by identifying when short-term momentum is shifting in relation to the long-term trend. This makes it a valuable tool for traders looking to enter or exit positions at optimal points.
1. Why is MACD important in trading?
Trend Confirmation: Identifies whether an asset is in an uptrend or downtrend.
Momentum Strength: Measures how strong a price movement is.
Reversal Signals: Detects potential changes in trend direction.
Entry and Exit Points: Helps traders determine when to buy and sell.
2. MACD Components
The MACD Line: Identifies whether an asset is in an uptrend or downtrend.
This line is derived by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA.
When the MACD Line is positive, it indicates bullish momentum; when negative, it suggests bearish momentum.
The Signal Line: Measures how strong a price movement is.
A 9-period EMA of the MACD Line.
It smooths out MACD fluctuations, making it easier to identify crossovers.
The Histogram: Detects potential changes in trend direction.
The difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line.
A positive histogram suggests increasing bullish momentum, while a negative histogram suggests growing bearish momentum.
3. MACD Formula
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most widely used technical indicators in trading. It helps traders identify trends, momentum shifts, and potential buy or sell opportunities by analyzing the relationship between two moving averages.
By calculating the difference between a short-term and long-term exponential moving average (EMA), MACD provides insight into market direction and strength.
//@version=6
indicator("MACD Indicator", overlay=false)
// MACD parameters
shortLength = 12
longLength = 26
signalLength = 9
// Calculate MACD
macdLine = ta.ema(close, shortLength) - ta.ema(close, longLength)
signalLine = ta.ema(macdLine, signalLength)
histogram = macdLine - signalLine
// Plot MACD components
plot(macdLine, color=color.blue, title="MACD Line")
plot(signalLine, color=color.red, title="Signal Line")
plot(histogram, color=color.green, style=plot.style_columns, title="Histogram")
Explanation:
Short EMA (12-period) and Long EMA (26-period) are calculated.
The MACD Line is the difference between these EMAs.
A Signal Line (9-period EMA of MACD Line) is calculated.
The Histogram represents the difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line.
4. Interpreting MACD signals
MACD Crossovers
A crossover occurs when the MACD Line and Signal Line intersect:
Bullish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line, it signals a potential uptrend and a buying opportunity.
Bearish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line, it suggests a potential downtrend and a selling opportunity.
MACD Divergences
Divergences occur when MACD moves in the opposite direction of the price, signaling a potential reversal:
Bullish Divergence: If price makes lower lows, but MACD makes higher lows, it suggests weakening downward momentum and a possible bullish reversal.
Bearish Divergence: If price makes higher highs, but MACD makes lower highs, it signals weakening upward momentum and a potential bearish reversal.
Histogram Interpretation
The MACD histogram visually represents momentum shifts:
When bars are increasing in height, momentum is strengthening.
When bars shrink, it suggests momentum is weakening.
Zero Line Crossings
The MACD crossing the zero line indicates momentum shifts:
MACD crossing above zero → Bullish trend initiation.
MACD crossing below zero → Bearish trend initiation.
5. Trend & Momentum Analysis
Traders use MACD to confirm trends and analyze market momentum:
If MACD Line is above the Signal Line, an uptrend is in place.
If MACD Line is below the Signal Line, a downtrend is dominant.
A widening histogram confirms strong momentum in the trend’s direction.
A narrowing histogram warns of potential trend weakening.
MACD works best in trending markets and should be used cautiously in sideways markets.
6. MACD Based Trading Strategies
Entry Strategies
Buy when MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line in an uptrend.
Sell when MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line in a downtrend.
Exit Strategies
Exit long trades when a bearish crossover occurs.
Close short positions when a bullish crossover occurs.
Position Management
If the histogram is expanding, traders can hold positions.
If the histogram is contracting, it may signal weakening momentum.
7. Limitations of MACD
While MACD is a powerful tool, traders must consider:
It lags behind price movements (since it is based on moving averages).
It can generate false signals in choppy markets.
Customization is required to suit different trading styles.
8. Optimization
Optimizing MACD for Different Market Conditions
Day Traders & Scalpers: Use faster settings like (5, 13, 6) for quick signals.
Swing Traders: Stick with the default (12, 26, 9) setting for balanced signals.
Long-Term Investors: Use slower settings like (24, 52, 18) for a broader market perspective.
9. Key Takeaways
MACD is a momentum and trend-following indicator that helps traders identify market direction, strength, and potential reversals.
Since MACD is a lagging indicator, it may generate false signals, especially in sideways markets.
Combining MACD with RSI, moving averages, and volume indicators improves accuracy and reduces risk.
MACD should be used alongside risk management strategies and other confirmation tools for best results.
MACD remains one of the most effective technical indicators, widely used across different markets. It helps traders identify trends, confirm momentum, and optimize trade entries and exits. However, it should always be used with additional tools to minimize false signals.
Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
How to Actually Do Backtesting?Welcome back guys, I’m Skeptic!
Today, I’m gonna break down one of the most important and fundamental skills every trader needs: Backtesting .
Backtesting is the very first step on your trading journey and probably the most crucial one. It’s all about putting your theoretical knowledge and trading plan to the test by evaluating them against historical market data. The goal? To see whether your strategy actually works — with what win rate, R/R ratio , and more.
But here’s the problem: many traders do it wrong. They end up getting unreliable results, which leads to self-doubt when it comes to forward testing. The real issue is not your strategy but how you conduct your backtest.
Let’s dive into the complete process! 💪
🛠️ Tools You Need
To start backtesting, you’ll need some software that supports the replay feature, allowing you to move through historical data as if it were live.
The best platforms for this are TradingView and MetaTrader . Personally, I use TradingView because it’s super intuitive and has great backtesting capabilities.
Also, make sure to choose appropriate timeframes for backtesting that align with your strategy.
🕰️ Choosing Market Conditions:
You need to backtest your strategy in all types of market conditions:
Uptrend
Downtrend
Range-bound
High Volatility
🚀 Step-by-Step Backtesting
1.Choose the Timeframe:
Make sure your backtesting timeframe matches your strategy’s timeframe. For example, if your strategy works on the 4H chart, don’t backtest on the 1H chart.
2.Select Your Strategy:
Stick to your written trading plan without improvising.
3.Pick the Asset Pair:
Test on at least three different pairs or assets (e.g., EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/NZD) to get diverse results.
4.Define Entry and Exit Rules:
Clearly specify your entry, stop loss, and target levels. Never change these rules mid-backtest, even if it seems illogical. In real trading, you won’t have the luxury of endless contemplation.
🎯 Running the Backtest
Use the Replay Tool to move through historical data.
Never peek at the future price movement. If you accidentally see it, restart from a different point.
Open a minimum of 30 positions for each market condition (e.g., uptrend, downtrend, range).
Record each trade in a spreadsheet (Excel, Google Sheets, etc.) with the following columns:
Date
Time
Entry strategy
Stop loss
Target
Result (profit/loss as R/R ratio)
Exit time
📊 Analyzing Your Results
After completing your backtest, it’s time to analyze the data. Key metrics to focus on include:
R/R Ratio
Win Rate (%)
Drawdown (%)
Losing Streaks
Position Frequency
🚩 Common Mistakes to Avoid
Inconsistent Strategy: Changing your rules during backtesting is a no-go. Stick to the plan.
Incomplete Testing: Don’t cut corners and always aim for a substantial number of trades.
Ignoring Market Conditions: Make sure your strategy is tested in all four market scenarios.
Lack of Patience: Just because the first few trades are losses doesn’t mean the strategy is a failure. Sometimes, a losing streak can be followed by a winning trade that covers it all.
💡 Conclusion
Backtesting is the beating heart of any trader’s skill set. It builds confidence and lays the foundation for a profitable strategy. If you found this tutorial helpful, give it a boost and share it with your fellow traders. Let’s grow together, not alone!
And as Freddie Mercury once said:
We are the champions, my friends! :)🏆
Happy trading, and see you in the next analysis! 💪🔥