How To (NOT) Fail As A Trader? (Part 2)Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Today, I want to share the second part of the frameworks I’ve used across the past 10 years.
I’ve learned them from the legend himself Charlie Munger, cofounder of Berkshire Hathaway, what NOT TO DO to stay far away from being unsuccessful and poor.
You'll find the first part shared yesterday below
I) Overspend your income
Once I got to a certain level of net worth, I still didn’t spend a lot.
Actually, I never overspent my trading income, I just keep stockpiling as much as possible
I don’t buy fancy things, I don’t get a table when I go to the nightclub
.
I barely spend 3% of what I earn every month - makes me feel so free because it’s more money that I’d ever need.
And …. That’s how wealth is accumulated.
I don’t even live frugally… I go to the restaurant every day….. I buy stuff that I need and I like….
But … if you want to fail, definitively overspend your income.
II) Learn only from your own mistakes
To fail, don’t learn from the mistakes of others, don’t learn from the success of other people.
There are tons of free ressources to learn the basics of psychology, trading, self-mastery
.
There are also a few very reliable and trustworthy traders selling courses and sharing how they became successful.
Sharing their trading method, their insights, etc...
Knowing how to identify them, and listening to them is key.
To stay poor, don’t learn from other successful traders.
III) Quit Early
If you want to fail and be miserable, you definitively want to quit soon, quit early.
Because, no matter of who you are, you’re going to fail many times.
Remember that my win-rate is between 50/60% :)
Half of my trades are necessary failures for me to deserve the winners.
If you quit trading too early, that’s a guarantee you’d be miserable for a long-time.
Don’t put yourself in a situation where you blown up your trading capital and can’t trade anymore...forcing you to quit…
Stay in the game, with tiny baby trades and take many of them for a VERY EXTENDED period of time…
That’s the ONLY WAY to learn overtime
IV) Negative Visualisation
Take something very negative, and imagine it happening a thousand times in a row.
How would you feel at the 1000th time it happens?
Exactly…you’d feel nothing
If you feel that way after the 1000th time… then you might as well feel that way after the 1st time…
This mindset framework has been so POWERFUL for me.
That’s exactly why you MUST trade a lot and have a lot of losers in your “skeleton closet”
Being insensitive to losses is a skill that can be acquired only after hundreds/thousands of failed trades
.
And trust me, I have hundreds of those losers every month…
They’re not affecting me anymore… they’re a necessary “evil”
V) Expect only the best outcome
If you want to fail at trading, definitively follow traders only posting the winning outcomes/trades.
Definitively never think of setting a stop-loss, or an hard-exit
.
Definitively don’t think about your RISK
VI) Expect the worst
Bouncing back from the previous point, sharing how I approach trading.
If you’re a beginner in your trading journey, expect every day that you’re going to lose some of your money.
And that is going to be your base reality
If I happen to make gains, be profitable then…. That’s just a bonus…. That’s serendipitous … it’s just a happy coincidence.
But I expect that at every trading session I’m going to lose.
This mindset framework has been extremely beneficial for me.
If I come trading with that mindset, then I’m not surprised nor affected when I’m losing some capital and I feel that way because it’s in alignments with the expectations I have in my mind.
Thank you for reading
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Dave
Trading Tools
JS-Masterclass #7: Trade AnalysisJS-Masterclass #7: Confirmations & Violations
In previous tutorials, we have covered the stock selection process and the identification of low risk, high probability entry point following constructive consolidation patterns.
Now that we are in the trade, the question comes up what to look for. What makes the price action healthy so that you rather stay in the trade and what are the alarm signals to look for?
The Founder of the Berger Funds and Stock Market Legend Bill Berger said:
“I buy tennis balls and sell eggs.”
What does that mean?
‘Tennis-Balls’ are characterized as follows: after a breakout under high volume out of a constructive consolidation pattern, most stock will pull back after a couple of days. This pullback for ‘Tennis-Balls’ normally happens under low volume and is followed by a strong price increase under heavy volume. Just like a tennis ball immediately pooping back after a drop to the ground.
‘Eggs’ are characterized as follows: The above mentioned pullback after a breakout happens under high volume and the stock is not able to recover from this pullback. Just like an egg which drops down to the ground.
What you do want to see after you have entered a trade:
• The trade is immediately profitable
• Good volume characteristics (high volume on up-days and low volume on down days)
• High volume rallies – low volume pullbacks
• Follow through buying (2-3 days or more) – institutional vs. retail
• More up days than down days
• More good closes than bad closes
• Look for ‘Tennis Ball Action’ after a ‘Natural Reaction’. A ‘Natural Reaction’ can be considered as a pullback under low volume following a breakout.
What you do not want to see after you have entered a trade:
• Squat directly after breakout
• Low volume out of a base - high volume back in
• 3 or 4 lower lows w/o supportive action
• More down days than up days
• More bad closes than good closes
• A close below the 20d MA on high volume
• A close below the 50d MA on high volume
• Full retracement of a good size gain
• Wide and volatile price action
• Outside day: high is higher than high of the previous day but closes below the low if the previous day. This happens on higher volume versus the previous day
How To (NOT) Fail As A Trader? (Part 1)Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Today, I want to share some thinking frameworks I’ve used across the past 10 years.
I’ve learned them from the legend himself Charlie Munger, cofounder of Berkshire Hathaway, what NOT TO DO to stay far away from being unsuccessful and poor.
I) Don’t ingest chemicals
Don’t ingest chemicals to alert your state
If I wanted to be really poor or unsuccessful in life, what would I do?
Well, I’d definitively get addicted to chemicals.
Sounds so logical and obvious right?
Though, many of us use them on regular basis to alter their mood because they can’t cope with how hard trading can be sometimes.
I can’t think of anyone who ever told me “oh man, now my life is so much better since I’m on drugs and I drink”
It’s not a judgment in any way; that’s what Charlie Munger says about successful people - they don’t ingest chemicals.
II) Envy
Every single year, I outperform my previous year YoY% PnL return and have grown my net worth.
Though, I always find many guys over performing me in trading every single year.
And for me, that hit me because I’m so innately competitive… that I suffer from comparison all the time.
I even got to the weirdest point thinking “I feel the more money I make, the poorer I feel”
Yes you read that right… and I know many of extremely successful traders feel that way.
And it’s totally true because what ends up happening is our measuring stick changes.
III) Measuring Stick
I remember when I was very young, my measuring stick was a MacDonald’s meal.
It was just, how many McDonald’s meals this amount of money equates to.
When I got to a 6 figures net worth, that was probably the wealthiest I have ever felt because I had proportional to what my measuring stick was at that time…100K euros was so many McDonald’s meals, so many of those units.
Now, my measuring stick or unit is bigger is monetary value (and significance).
That stick changes....
Someone is always doing better.
I think it’s so much more about not thinking about them because the way they roll the dice and play the game has no effects on us - it’s only an imaginary way to make ourselves suffer.
If you want to suffer, be envious of people.
IV) Resent people
Another way to feel miserable is to resent people.
- Do you resent some guys for your trading failures?
- Do you blame the FED? Do you blame Blackrock?
- Do you blame the whales for YOU to not performing with trading the way you should?
Charlie Munger wrote that every time he feels the need to resent people, he’d write their name on a piece of paper and put that paper in a drawer, and periodically open it up and realise how life had dealt with those people without him having to do anything.
It’s one of those long-term mindedness that like most people live in karmic balance.
Simply, people who do bad things, eventually that catches up to them and life is becoming worse for them.
And someone doing bad things is already dealing with the suffering of being who they are.
Why am I saying this?
All your corrupt politicians, bankers, hedge funds, market makers, brokers… at some point, the karma (or the SEC :p) will make their life miserable or at least very problematic.
Again, repeating myself, don’t resent other people for your losses because this will make you feel really miserable.
V) Be unreliable
To feel miserable, say you’re going to do something and don’t do it.
Say you’re going to be somewhere and be late.
Be flaky, make tons of mistakes and don’t learn from them.
That’s why I’m a big believer of having a trading buddy because it forces me to be reliable towards myself and him.
For me, that’s my father.
We both show up on time, trading from the same room, we both trades and discuss in real-time of setups we identified.
If you’re reliable, it’s very difficult to be unsuccessful.
Even if the previous days, you lost money, keep showing up.
If you don’t feel like trading because your emotions are not in check… trade with your demo account or with smaller position sizes until you’ll bring your self-confidence back up.
My win-rate is maybe around 50/60% - which means half of the trades I take…. fail…
Though it was a tough pill to swallow, I worked on making at least 3 times more on average with my winners compared to my losers.
Meaning for every 1 dollar per trade with a negative PnL, I earn 3 dollars per trade with a positive PnL.
I’ll post the Part II of this article tomorrow .
Thank you for reading
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Dave
Moving drawing toolsTiny video to show one of the most recent (2022/09) news regarding the Tradingview design: the possibility to move all the graphic elements we have added with a mathematical operation. I find this function useful especially following stock splits, but it is also very useful during very aggressive trends to move selected items that would overlap the bars.
Link to TV blog:
www.tradingview.com
The 3 TYPES OF CHART YOU MUST KNOW | Trading Basics
Hey traders,
In this educational video, we will discuss 3 different chart types:
range bar chart,
line chart
candlestick chart.
I will explain to you the difference between them and will teach you why they are important.
❤️Please, support this video with like and comment!❤️
The reason you are not successful...Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Yesterday, I posted an article about how to NOT overtrade when you're emotions are running high:
Now, I'd like to flip the other side of that coin showing how "overtrading" can be beneficial for beginners to achieve their desired outcome. 🧵
I - Alex Hormozi
I discovered this OUTCOME equation thanks to Alex Hormozi on Youtube.
He helped me defining clearly with words how to get to the outcome I want.
Props to him for being such a wonderful business/sales/marketing/thinker.
II - The OUTCOME equation
The equation is defined as: VOLUME x SKILL x TIME = OUTCOME
VOLUME = number of repetitions
SKILL = quality of each repetition
TIME = total duration of practicing those repetitions
Based in foundational principales
The more we do.... the better we get
The better we get.... the more we do
The longer we do it....the better we get
The better we get....the longer we do it
The longer we do it...the more what we did compounds on itself (profit, reducing losses, etc)
In this way, each of the three feed the others, but it all starts with doing .
It's a virtuous wonderful cycle: imgur.com
It works for any skill you want to acquire but let's focus on trading for now.
After years of trading, any of my trade has a higher quality than my trades from my early days.
Why?
Because I spent an enormous amount of time trading intraday first with a demo account, and then with a live account trading with micro-lots/micro-pips.
Once I got profitable CONSISTENTLY for a few weeks, I allowed myself to increase my lot size slightly.
I repeated this cycle made of mini weekly cycles for more than 5 years until I'll reach a capital allowing me to trade the indices futures.
III - Why 97% of traders fail at trading
The majority of traders lose due to a lack of experience which can only come with taking a lot of trades during an extended period of time.
There is no other way....
Forget about getting rich quickly, forget about your 100% automated bots - if such wonders existed, no one in their right mind would sell them and they'd invest everything they and their family own in those magical cashflow generating machines instead...
New traders think only a few weeks of practicing is required to learn about themselves and about the markets.
Your favorite influencers won't tell you this: trading is very hard, most lose all their money, lose their family, lose their home, lose themselves in the process.
The only hedge you have is your WORK.... you can't cheat the GAME.... you have to take a lot of trades for an extended period of time.....
And then, at some point, you'll be able to capture more opportunity per trade, to lose less whenever your Stop Loss is hit, to not get frustrated when the price is leaving without you
All those skills cannot be acquired in weeks ....
One cannot develop character traits required to be a good trader in a short timeframe - talking about patience, discipline and motivated.
Motivated too because it's hard to keep one's dopamine level high after some consecutive days of losing
Don't cheat the game, it's impossible
If you're not profitable yet, forget about leverage please please please please.
How many times do you have to get margin called to understand that leverage wasn't invented for you to make money but to depart from it faster.
IV - True Effort
When learning a new skill at the beginning, everyone sucks.
I certainly sucked at it and you will too.
THAT IS FINE, THIS IS OKAY, THERE IS NOTHING WRONG
How could you not expect to suck at a skill you don't know yet.
What I'm saying is unpleasant because everyone wants to get rich quick (me included)
My only guarantee to YOU guys is that if you can afford to follow this process with a decent trading strategy and stay consistent, your gains are going to be tiny at the beginning and then PARABOLIC after some time.
As the desired OUTCOME is to become richer and/or live off your trading again, this is the ONLY way
It's IMPOSSIBLE to suck at trading after taking thousands and thousands of trades.
As it's impossible to suck at anything after months and months of constant practice and effort.
And you can learn with a DEMO account (risk-free) or with betting pennies per every trade using CFDs or other similar product.
If you want to learn how to play piano, if you follow some tutorials on Youtube every day and practice 2-3 hours a day for years, I guarantee you that you'll have an excellent playing level.
Stop being lazy, stop cheating the game, stop searching for the way to get rich quick.
Accept the magic pill doesn't exist BUT another way that no one is doing will allow you be DIRECTIONALLY RIGHT and eventually reaching your desired OUTCOME.
Conclusion
I wanted to post this content because this outcome equation is dear to my heart and changed my life for the better
I'm literally kicking ass because I outworked everyone I know
And now that I'm more skilled than them, I can put off my foot from the accelerator working less than them, making more $$ than them
Thank you for reading by dear followers
PS
To all those in the comments about to tell me they have a magical bot printing $$ for them and their community, I invite you to show me your track records and bank account statements and any proof I could believe you didn't use photoshop on to sugarcoat what the reality is...
The 12 Days of Effective Trading Learning
Hey traders,
In this article, we gathered for you 1 2-days intensive trading learning marathon.
We hope that it will help.
1 Day:
Practice placing support and resistance lines.
2 Day:
Perfect placing trend lines.
3 Day:
Study candlestick patterns.
4 Day:
Review chart patterns.
5 Day:
Practice placing fibonacci retracements.
6 Day:
Learn about moving average.
7 Day:
Master market structure.
8 Day:
Watch videos on momentum oscillators.
9 Day:
Learn about divergence.
10 Day:
Study risk managment.
11 Day:
Review fundamental literature.
12 Day:
Create a trading plan.
Let us know if such a marathon helped you in your journey.
PSYCHOLOGY OF A TRADER | TRADING BASICS
Market psychology is the idea that the movements of a market reflect (or are influenced by) the emotional state of its participants. It is one of the main topics of behavioral economics - an interdisciplinary field that investigates the various factors that precede economic decisions.
Many believe that emotions are the main driving force behind the shifts of financial markets. And that the overall fluctuating investor sentiment is what creates the so-called psychological market cycles.
So, the sentiment is made up of the individual views and feelings of all traders and investors within a financial market. Another way to look at it is as an average of the overall feeling of the market participants.
But, just as with any group, no single opinion is completely dominant. Based on market psychology theories, an asset's price tends to change constantly in response to the overall market sentiment - which is also dynamic. Otherwise, it would be much harder to make a successful trade.
In practice, when the market goes up, it is likely due to an improving attitude and confidence among the traders. A positive market sentiment causes demand to increase and supply to decrease. In turn, the increased demand may cause an even stronger attitude. Similarly, a strong downtrend tends to create a negative sentiment that reduces demand and increases the available supply.
Pine Editor Shortcuts Hotkeys (All Hidden Included)For Those who have not explored, Here is the list of All the shortcut keys available.
Very useful for Macros
'show settings menu' - "CONTROL - ," "command - ,
'go to next error' - "ALT - e" "F4"
'go to previous error' - "ALT - SHIFT - e" "SHIFT - F4"
'select all' - "CONTROL - a" "command - a"
'center selection' - "CONTROL - l"
'go to line' - "CONTROL - l" "command - l"
'fold' - "ALT - l |or| CONTROL - F1"
'unfold' - "ALT - SHIFT - l |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - F1"
'toggle fold widget' - "F2" "F2"
'toggle parent fold widget' - "ALT - F2" "ALT - F2"
'fold all' - "CONTROL - command - option-0"
'fold other' - "ALT - 0" "command - option-0"
'unfold all' - "ALT - SHIFT - 0" "command-option-SHIFT - 0"
'find next' - "CONTROL - k" "command - g"
'find previous' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - k" "command-SHIFT - g"
'selector find next' - "ALT - k" "CONTROL - g"
'selector find previous' - "ALT - SHIFT - k" "CONTROL - SHIFT - g"
'find' - "CONTROL - F" "command - f"
'overwrite' - "insert"
'select to start' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - home"
'go to start' - "CONTROL - home" "command - home |or| command-UP"
'select UP' - "SHIFT - UP" "SHIFT - UP |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - p"
'go lineup' - "UP" "UP |or| CONTROL - p"
'select to end' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - end"
'go to end' - "CONTROL - end" "command - end |or| command-DOWN"
'select DOWN' - "SHIFT - DOWN" "SHIFT - DOWN |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - n"
'go line DOWN' - "DOWN" "DOWN |or| CONTROL - n"
'select word LEFT' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - LEFT" "option-SHIFT - LEFT"
'go to word LEFT' - "CONTROL - LEFT" "option - LEFT"
'select to line start' - "ALT - SHIFT - LEFT"
'go to line start' - "ALT - LEFT |or| home"
'select LEFT' - "SHIFT - LEFT" "SHIFT - LEFT |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - b"
'go to LEFT' - "LEFT" "LEFT |or| CONTROL - b"
'select word RIGHT' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - RIGHT" "option-SHIFT - RIGHT"
'go to word RIGHT' - "CONTROL - RIGHT" "option - RIGHT"
'select to line end' - "ALT - SHIFT - RIGHT"
'go to line end' - "ALT - RIGHT |or| end"
'select RIGHT' - "SHIFT - RIGHT" "SHIFT - RIGHT"
'go to RIGHT' - "RIGHT" "RIGHT |or| CONTROL - F"
'select page DOWN' - "SHIFT - pagedown"
'page DOWN' - "option - pagedown"
'go to page DOWN' - "pagedown" "pagedown |or| CONTROL - v"
'select page UP' - "SHIFT - pageup"
'page UP' - "option - pageup"
'go to page UP' - "pageup"
'scroll UP' - "CONTROL - UP"
'scroll DOWN' - "CONTROL - DOWN"
'select line start' - "SHIFT - home"
'select line end' - "SHIFT - end"
'toggle recording' - "CONTROL - ALT - e" "command-option-e"
'replay macro' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - e" "command-SHIFT - e"
'jump to matching' - "CONTROL - p" "CONTROL - p"
'select to matching' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - p" "CONTROL - SHIFT - p"
'expand to matching' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - m" "CONTROL - SHIFT - m"
'remove line' - "CONTROL - d" "command-d"
'duplicate selection' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - d" "command-SHIFT - d"
'sort lines' - "CONTROL - ALT - s" "command-ALT - s"
'toggle comment' - "CONTROL - /" "command-/"
'toggle block comment' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - /" "command-SHIFT - /"
'modify number UP' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - UP" "ALT - SHIFT - UP"
'modify number DOWN' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - DOWN" "ALT - SHIFT - DOWN"
'replace' - "CONTROL - h" "command-option-f"
'undo' - "CONTROL - z" "command-z"
'redo' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - z |or| CONTROL - y"
'copy lines UP' - "ALT - SHIFT - UP" "command-option-UP"
'move lines UP' - "ALT - UP" "option - UP"
'copy lines DOWN' - "ALT - SHIFT - DOWN" "command-option-DOWN"
'move lines DOWN' - "ALT - DOWN" "option-DOWN"
'del' - "delete" "delete |or| CONTROL - d |or| SHIFT - delete"
'backspace' - "SHIFT - backspace |or| backspace"
'cut or delete' - "SHIFT - delete"
'remove to line start' - "ALT - backspace" "command-backspace"
'remove to line end' - "ALT - delete" "CONTROL - k |or| command-delete"
'remove to line start hard' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - backspace"
'remove to line end hard' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - delete"
'remove word LEFT' - "CONTROL - backspace"
'remove word RIGHT' - "CONTROL - delete" "ALT - delete"
'outdent' - "SHIFT - tab" "SHIFT - tab"
'indent' - "tab" "tab"
'block outdent' - "CONTROL - [" "CONTROL - ["
'block indent' - "CONTROL - ]" "CONTROL - ]"
'split line' - "CONTROL - o"
'transpose letters' - "ALT - SHIFT - x" "CONTROL - t"
'to uppercase' - "CONTROL - u" "CONTROL - u"
'to lowercase' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - u" "CONTROL - SHIFT - u"
'expand to line' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - l" "command-SHIFT - l"
My layout of correlations
I always monitor correlations before doing day trading or swing trading on more assets, at the same time.
Correlation is a measure that defines how different assets move in relation to one another. The more the correlation coefficient is, the more they are aligned closely.
My layout of correlations here.
US Dollar and SP500 as references at first row of each table. My list of tickets consists of several subsets: Indices, Commodities , Financials and Currencies.
My Layout is 1x5
Correlation Frame 1x1 --> Daily perspective (timeframe 4h, lenght for calculation of correlation = 6)
Correlation Frame 1x2 --> Weekly perspective (timeframe 4h, lenght for calculation of correlation = 30)
Correlation Frame 1x3 --> Monthly perspective (timeframe 1D, lenght for calculation of correlation = 20)
Correlation Frame 1x4 --> 2-Monthly perspective (timeframe 1D, lenght for calculation of correlation =40)
Correlation Frame 1x5 --> 3-Monthly perspective (timeframe 1D, lenght for calculation of correlation = 60)
You can find this indicator in Tradingview, Tab indicator & strategies , by typing gCorrelations
How to journal your trades?Hello traders,
There are TONS of journaling tools out there.
But 99% of them are missing this one feature that is CRITICAL to your success.
Here's how to journal your trades the RIGHT way: 🧵
Most journals go over statistics of your trading day
# of trades
P/L
Risk/Reward Ratio
These are important to measure, however...
There are a few elements that aren't shown in most journals
They are:
-Emotional Mistakes
-Strategy Iterations
Emotional Mistakes
Emotional mistakes are KEY to becoming a successful trader
It's typically the #1 reason traders fail
They don't have the discipline to follow their strategy
Some emotional mistakes are...
Taking too much size
Not getting out at stop
Felt greedy and didn't take profit
These are just a few of the examples that you've probably felt throughout your trading career
It is so important that you track these emotional mistakes... so you can fix them for the future
Strategy Iterations
You should be measuring what is and isn't working with your strategy
This will allow you to tweak your strategy to improve it
Seeing your P/L or the # of trades you took doesn't help you.
Seeing how you can increase your win rate or risk/reward WILL help you.
The whole point of journaling is to learn from your past trading and improve it.
If you aren't focusing on the real inputs that are costing you money...
then there's no point in journaling at all.
All the BEST
Daveatt
Big Bank Imbalance Strategy (Go With The Flow) Example on 1 hour EurChf Chart for Friday ( sell trade, but can do on buy trade too)… its Friday: Don't be greedy).
Note the following:
1) Big Banks selling (note large 1 hour candlesticks- on charts)- only people that can do that are big banks and/or institutions (not retail traders).
2) Two areas of sell imbalance (they must be filled with buy either today or in the near future). In all probable's, I would side with today and big banks are just selling to buy back later today - because the big banks do not want many imbalances when Forex is closed (and/or the weekend)
3) Look for a higher bullish LOW and higher CLOSE candlestick for your reason to enter into a long and/or setting up buy trade soon.
4) After the #3 above has happen (wait patiently)- why? because that candle happened at 3:00 a.m. and/or after Tokyo closed and before NY session opened.
London session does three more hours of accumulation 1 hour candles (see large bottom & top wicks- both buying and selling pressure)- so all big banks and institutions are happy with the current price at this moment.
5) When NY session opens, what happens? Big banks and institutions are buying (large candles)- your sign to by was actually the 1hour sell candlestick (red) before the large blue candlestick happened. Why? because the big banks and/or institutions are trying to tell you to sell, but you being smart did not fall for that one, right? You said above price action are two areas of sell imbalance that I except to be fill today, so I will plan to buy when that pa reverses and goes north and/or blue above that last red candlestick.
*On Chart related to its Friday & both scalpers and/or day traders should not be holding over the weekend. Why? because Forex is closed and when Forex starts back up- their could be small or large GAPS which take you out, which you have zero control over. Trading is 100% on you, your decisions only- control as much as you can- do not give your broker and/or big banks or institutions any more control then they already have in the Forex world.
If you are scalping and/or day trading these Big Bank imbalance strategy should be 1:1 or: 1:2 risk reward maximum. You can trade this of course buy or sell on pairs. You need to always use risk management. This trade would have seen you doing a 1:1 RR with 17 pip stop vs 17 pip target. Trading is not about pips that you make, but the risk that you take= PER TRADE.
WHY 95% OF TRADERS DO NOT SUCCEED?
The evidence suggests that only a very small proportion of day traders makes money year over year.
There are certain patterns which may separate profitable traders from those who ultimately lose money. And indeed, there is one particular mistake that in our experience gets repeated time and time again. What is the single most important mistake that led to traders losing money?
Here is a hint – it has to do with how we as humans relate to winning and losing.
Our own human psychology makes it difficult to navigate financial markets, which are filled with uncertainty and risk, and as a result the most common mistakes traders make have to do with poor risk management strategies.
Traders are often correct on the direction of a market, but where the problem lies is in how much profit is made when they are right versus how much they lose when wrong.
Bottom line, traders tend to make less on winning trades than they lose on losing trades.
Humans aren’t machines, and working against our natural biases requires effort. Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading.
That will help you to be a consistently profitable trader.
5 Elements of a Smart Trade Plan
Find out why you should have a trade plan—and the five elements that may help you put it to work successfully.
Element 1: Your time horizon
How long do you plan to hold a position? This will depend on your trading strategy. Generally, traders fit into one of three categories:
Single-session traders are very active and look to gain from small price variations over very short time periods (minutes or hours) throughout the trading day.
Swing traders target trades that can be completed in a few days to a few weeks.
Position traders seek larger gains and recognize that it often takes longer than a few weeks to achieve them.
Element 2: Your entry strategy
Look for entry signals—for instance, divergences from trend lines and support levels—to help you place your trades. The signals you employ and the orders you use to make good on them hinge on your trading style and preferences.
Element 3: Your exit plan
When it comes to an exit strategy, plan for two types of trades: those that go in your favor and those that don’t. You might be tempted to let favorable trades run, but don’t ignore opportunities to take some profits.
Element 4: Your position size
Trading is risky. A good trade plan establishes ground rules for how much you’re willing to risk on any single trade. Say, for example, you don’t want to risk losing more than 2%–3% of your account on a single trade. You could consider exercising portion control, or sizing positions, to fit your budget.
Element 5: Your trade performance
Look over your trading history to calculate your theoretical trade expectancy, meaning your average gain (or loss) per trade. You start by determining the percentage of your trades that have been profitable versus those that haven’t. This is known as your win/loss ratio.
Understanding what goes into a smart trade plan is the first step to prepare you for your next trade.
Exit Strategies to Consider on Each Trade: a Complete GuideEnter, monitor, and exit are three vital steps to follow while trading. While most traders focus on how and when they can enter a particular setup, they pay less attention to their exit strategy. Today, we are gonna look into some popular exit strategies that we utilise in our personal trading.
1) Breakeven closure
When the price is moving in our direction and is already a few key zones away from the entry zone, we make the trade risk-free by moving the Stop Loss level to the price of entry.
If the Stop Loss gets hit, we exit the trade with neither a gain nor a loss.
2) Manual Closure
In the process of monitoring, if the price does not play out according to our plan, we tend to make quick decision and exit the trade earlier than planned.
3) Target Profit
We set a Take Profit (TP) order that closes the transaction as soon as it gets triggered.
4) Stop Loss
We set a Stop Loss (SL) order that closes the transaction as soon as it gets triggered.
What is an ETF? (exchange traded fund)
An exchange traded fund (ETF) is an investment fund that invests in a basket of stocks, bonds, or other assets. ETFs are traded on a stock exchange, just like stocks. Investors are drawn to ETFs because of their low price, tax efficiency and ease of trading.
ETFs seek to provide the performance of a specified index, such as the S&P 500, and typically have low fees.
Like mutual funds, ETFs offer investors diversified exposure to a portfolio of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate.
Why are ETFs popular?
While investors often associate ETFs with large stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, ETFs provide access to virtually every asset class, sector, region, theme and investment style.
ETFs are popular because of their low fees, tax efficiency, liquidity and transparency. Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs.
What are the benefits of ETFs?
ETFs cost significantly less than comparable active mutual funds — and that savings can add up over time. Other benefits include:
Access and liquidity. Because ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, they are easily bought or sold.
Transparency. Just like mutual funds, ETFs report performance quarterly and fees daily.
Diversification. ETFs provide access to a wide range of investment options, covering a broad range of asset classes, sectors and geographies. They also make it easy to select specific themes or investment styles.
What are the risks associated
with ETFs?
Like mutual funds, ETFs carry investment risk depending on their asset class, strategy and region. Some ETFs are riskier than others.
In addition, if you invest in an ETF that holds securities in a currency other than your own, movements in the foreign exchange rate may affect your returns.
Traders gaining momentum: Fall edition!Hey everyone! 👋
Grab your beverage of choice: it's time to sit back, relax, and take a look at some of the hottest up and coming authors on TradingView. All of these folks deserve a follow, so be sure to show them some love! ❤️❤️
If you think we’re missing someone, be sure to make it known below in the comments. Also, we’ll be doing these roundups from time to time so be sure follow us so you don’t miss any of them!
Let’s jump in.
We’ve sorted each Author by the asset class they focus on. Click on their profile and see if you like the ideas they're putting out!
Multi-Asset:
Trade_Journal
TrendLINEBoys
NoFomoCharts
ZenMode
Valerus_Forex
Vixtine
SquishTrade
LupaCapital
Stocks & Indices:
dpuleo19
nuggetrouble
rossgivens
MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Crypto:
decklyndubs
natef1
Currencies:
jamison_fx
DemoDiaryFX_Trading
CarterKyleCapital
Lightwork_
WallStreetIntelligence
And there you have it! Our roundup. As we mentioned before, don’t forget to follow TradingView for regular educational content :)
Think we missed any up-and-coming accounts? Point them out in the comments! Obviously, don’t shill yourself. 😉
Cheers!
-
Please remember Editors' Picks and all the authors we mention are our attempt to show undiscovered traders, unique market insights, and interesting educational material.
Anyone can be featured in Editors' Picks or in posts like this. All it takes is publishing an idea from your account. We try to be as fair as possible, following many of you, and reading all the different ideas published daily.
That's it! High quality content, consistency, clarity, and the will to help others is what we look for.
You can read all of our guidelines below:
www.tradingview.com
www.tradingview.com
www.tradingview.com
WHAT IS LEVERAGE IN FOREX?
“Leverage” means using a small amount of your own money in order to control a much larger amount of money. Typically, you borrow the remaining amount through your broker.
For example, say you want to control a $50,000 position. Your broker might put aside $500 of your own money and borrow the remainder. You now have control over the $50,000 with just $500 from your own account, so your leverage ratio is 100:1.
Now, let’s say the $50,000 investment rises by $500, so the full position is now worth $50,500. If you were liable for the full $50,000 (representing a 1:1 ratio), this is only a 1% return on your investment. However, since you only put in $500 of your own capital, the $500 increase represents a 100% return on your investment – that’s way more exciting!
Now, it’s important to understand that this cuts both ways. If you lost $500 instead of gaining $500, you would see a -100% return on your investment. Yikes! If you had a 1:1 ratio and put in the full $50,000 you would only see a -1% return.
How Much Can You Leverage in Forex?
Before you open an account with a broker, you’ll want to check the maximum leverage ratio that you’ll be able to use. The higher the ratio, the bigger your potential gains or losses. Brokers will usually offer 50:1, 100:1, 200:1, or 400:1 ratios.
A typical ratio on a standard lot account is 100:1, and a mini lot account will often offer a 200:1 ratio. If you start trading at 400:1, be wary of using small deposits to control large capital, as these can disappear quickly with the volatility of large sums. Lower leverage keeps you safer from mistakes, while higher leverage could bring in higher rewards.
How Leverage Affects Your Trading ✅
As we’ve seen, leverage is a powerful tool that can help you win big in the forex market. You can use less capital to control greater positions, giving you flexibility and amplifying your profits. However, it can just as easily amplify your losses.
At very high levels, leverage starts to damage your odds of success. Transaction costs represent a higher percentage of your margin the greater your position is. This means that transaction costs already put you at a disadvantage with excessively high leverage.
What Is Leverage (in Forex trading)?Leverage allows you to potentially trade more money than you have in your current account. Your broker gives you a loan of 1:10 up to 1:50 leverage for your trading, in the U.S.A. (see chart attached).
You can change all amounts and % per trade on the chart.
Remember less leverage you put down on a trade, the higher margin (deposit or cash out of your account is needed) to place trades, yes that is how your broker protects you and them from a big huge loss by a forex trader. Also, this how you prevent margin calls from your broker from taking on to much risk.
Forex trading involves several things:
1) You account size
2) Leverage used. Higher leverage means you need less margin (broker deposit) per trade. Smaller trades you can do higher leverage with proper risk control. Higher trades you can do smaller leverage with proper risk control. Then you trade for the long-term, not just for a short period of times.
3) Required cash margin that your broker needs to hold for each trade that you are in. Protection for yourself and broker during your trade.
4) Percentage % used per trade (risk controlled by you)< Always do this on every trade that you do.
5) Lot size (you decide before any trades are done). Standard size: 1= 100,000= $10, Micro lot 1= 10,000= $1 or Mini lot 1= 1,000= 0.01 (on USD pairs)
6) Always use a STOP LOSS when trading (so you can determine, amount of risk per trade and/or lot size proper for each trade you do.)
You always want to use normally less then 5% risk per trade, so that 20 losing trades in a row does not blow your account. Risk management of your account is what will determine if you succeed or fail in forex trading. If you have a 1% or 2% per risk per trade with a 60%, 70% or higher win rate, with yes compound interest, you will see very high profits in the longer term and your forex account grow fast. The secret is leave your account alone and let it grow.
Actually, forex trading involves another ten things, which you can control are: account size, candlestick setups, entry, exit, targets, pair you trade, leverage you use, price you get in, session you trade and time you trade, lot sizes, risk per trade 1% to 5% (less is more).
WHAT IS DRAWDOWN | 3 Types Of Drawdown Explained 📚
Hey traders,
In my videos, I frequently use the term "drawdown".
Many of you asked me to explain the meaning of that term and share some examples.
The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest
value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at
a certain period of time.
Imagine you started to trade with 10,000$ account.
At the end of the year, your account size reached 15,000$.
However, at some point through the year the deposit value dropped to 6,000$. It was the absolute minimum for the one-year period.
At some point, your net loss was -4,000$ or 40% of your account balance.
The account drawdown is 40%.
❗️Knowing the account drawdown is very important for the risk assessment of the trading strategy. Usually, 50% and bigger drawdown signifies an extremely high risk.
There are 3 types of drawdown to know.
Current drawdown - a temporary drawdown associated
with the negative total value of opened trading position(s)
at present.
Once you start trading with 10,000$ deposit, you open several trading positions. Being opened, with the constant price movements, your potential gains fluctuates from positive to negative.
For examples, with 3 active trades: EURUSD (-500$ at present); GBPUSD (+200$ at present); GOLD (-100$ at present) your current account drawdown is -400$ or 4% of your deposit.
Fixed drawdown - the negative value of the closed trading
position(s) at present for a certain period of time.
While some of your trades remain active, some are already closed.
Imagine the same deposit - 10,000$.
On Monday you opened 6 trades, 2 still remain active and 4 are already closed. Your total loss from your closed trades is -500$. Your fixed Monday's drawdown is 5%.
Maximum Drawdown - the maximum observed loss from
the highest value of the deposit before a new maximum
is reached.
Starting to trade with 10,000$ you are already trading for 5 years.
Your account were growing rapidly and at some moment it reached 25,000$. Then the recession started. You faced a dramatic loss of 12,500$ before you started to recover.
That was the maximum observed loss for the period.
Your maximum account drawdown was 50%.
❗️Different types of drawdown give a lot of insights about a trading strategy. Its proper assessment will help to spot a high risk strategy and to find a conservative one.
Constantly monitor your account drawdown and always check the numbers.
What is your highest account drawdown?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
How to use the Multibit-System x8 ProcessorFirst, the bases of this chart:
what is multibit:
its a way to transmit 16 bools from one indicator to the next, based on the library
this is called daisy chaining, so to use that stuff u need at least a TV-pro+ license, but i would recommend
premium, as you also have more data to analyze
here you see how its basically looking, x8 can do 8 channels, starting from the bottom which is 0 to the
top which is channel 7
what is a classic signal:
its a signal for daisy chaining based on a trigger line which can do -1, 0, +1 for short,long, neutral
What to see in that Idea:
5 indicators chained into a row which are finally a combined to a strategy
almost Nadaraya-watson -- configured to deliver classic signal on cross-inside
--> to Digitalsignal plot
x8 L3 Processor -- configured to convert a classic to a multibit to channel 0(L),1(S)
--> to Multibit plot
L1 L2 RSI -- configured to deliver a multibit signal on channel 2(oversold),3(overb.)
--> to Multibit plot
all the data is now into the daisychain multibit link (so channel 0 1 2 3 used)
x8 L3 Processor --
here a lot more of the magic begins:
MDB: channel 0 to ch. 0 (filtering small moves (+-4%)
MDB: channel 1 to ch. 1 (filtering small moves (+-4%)
TON: channel 2 to ch. 4 prolonging 2 by 10 bars
TON: channel 3 to ch. 5 prolonging 2 by 10 bars
AND: channel 0 and 4 to channel 6
AND: channel 1 and 5 to channel 7
finaly its configured to send out a classic signal from channel 6 and 7 -> 6 is +1 7 is a -1 else 0
--> to Digitalsignal plot
you can now do alarms on the x8 processor Digitalsignal (trigger above and below 0 for long short)
FINISHED, OR:
L5 Backtest MK5.5
grabbs the x8 processor (Digitalsignal) and does the risk management and does its magic
with the settings in the indicator
--> delivers alarms how the position gets managed with a alarmmessage
{{strategy.order.alert_message}} in the alarmconfig,
than you get the custom texts from the module
Functions inside the x8 Processor (you can read the signaltranscoder library for more details)
And and condition - 1 2 or 3 signals to on channel line 2 output channel
Or condition - 1 2 or 3 signals to on channel line 2 output channel
XOR, XAND, NAND, NOR (this are basic Logic combiners)
TON - wants a signal over a minumum selectable length to let it pass
TOF - prolongs a signal by length selected
next 2 are little bit more tricky
MDP (MinimumPercentagePromille)
- only lets pass a signal if it minimum grows or shrinks xxxx promile
Parameters: would be: 1=Input, 2= 950(5% shrink), 3= 1050(5% grow)
4=outputchannel 5= MDP
RATE - wants a amount of signals in a defined length
Parameters: 1= input, 2= candleamount, 3= minimum count
4= output 5= RATE
that list are most functions a strategy uses, so you can combine more indicators in a row without the need to code around every time you wanna try something.
There are now several multibit indicators out in the wild from me, each of my indicators which i touch again or update will be compatible. at least for Level 1 Indicators i do a 1,0 -1 Classic signal which a x8 can turn into a multibit very quicky.
a implementation reference code you can see here:
at the bottom of the script, both versions, classic and multibit
have fun
Learn TOP 5 Tips For Trade Management 📖
Hey traders,
In this post, I will share with you my tips for trade management.
But first, let me elaborate on what is exactly a trade management.
Trade management is the set of rules and techniques applied for managing of an already active position.
Trade management is a very important element of any trading strategy that should never be neglected.
1. Never remove a stop loss
Being in a huge loss, many traders refuse to admit that they are wrong. Instead, watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss, they remove stop loss hoping on a coming reversal.
The alternative situation may happen when the price is going sharply in the desired direction. Watching the increasing profits, traders remove a stop loss, being afraid to miss bigger profits.
Both situations may lead to substantial, higher than initially planned losses. Driven by many factors, the market can easily burn all gains and move against the desired direction much longer than traders stay solvent.
For these reasons, never remove a stop loss. It must be always set.
2. Never modify your stop loss if a position is in loss
Watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss is painful. Instead of removing stop loss, some traders move it and give the market more space for reversal.
Even though such a technique is safer than the complete stop loss removal, it is still a very bad habit.
Each stop loss adjustment increases the potential loss, not giving any guarantees that the market will reverse.
It is highly recommendable to keep your stop loss fixed and let the price hit it and admit the loss.
3. Know in advance your profit protection strategy
Where do you take your profit?
Do you have a fixed tp level or do you apply trailing stop?
You should always know the answers.
Coiling around take profit level but not being able to reach it, the price makes many traders manually close the trade or move take profit closer to current price levels.
Another common situation happens when the market so quickly reaches the desired TP level so the traders remove TP hoping to make bigger than initially planned profit.
Such emotional interventions negatively affect a long-term trading performance. TP removal may even burn all profits.
Do not let your greed intervene, and always follow your rules.
4. Never add to a losing position
Watching how the price refuses to go in the intended direction and cutting a partial loss, many traders add to a losing trade in hopes that the market will reverse and all the losses will be recovered.
Again, such a fallacy usually leads to substantial losses.
Remember, you can add to a position only AFTER the market moved in the desired direction, not BEFORE.
5. Close the trades manually only following rules
Quite often, newbie traders manually close their trades because of some random factors:
they saw someone's opposite view, or they simply changed their mind.
Remember, that if you opened a trade following your trading plan, you should always have strict rules for a position manual close. Do not let random factors affect your trading.
Following these 5 simple tips, your trading will improve dramatically. Remember, that it is not enough to spot and accurate entry. Once you are in a trade, you should wisely manage that, following your plan.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️