Managing Risk Using Probabilities 3 In part 2 of this series, we discussed the probability of a coin flip and how the odds that you land on heads "x" number of times in a row significantly decreases each time the coin is flipped. Therefore, it is important to understand the difference between "the probability the chart goes up or down" and "the probability that you (the trader) find yourself in a winning trade."
The brings me to my next point of gathering your data. There is a difference between gathering data to calculate the probability an asset will rise or fall versus gathering data on a specific trade set-up and determining whether or not it will win or lose. Backtesting and forward testing are both excellent methods to calculate probabilities. In my honest opionion, backtest at least 100 trades in order to best calculate probability. Ask yourself if you are okay with losing more than 3 times in a row. If your set up loses more than 4 times in a row, it is very likely your odds of being in a losing trade are worse.
Please take the time to think and meditate on this matter. If there are no questions concerning this, I may begin to go into details of my own personal trading set ups on the next article.
Be blessed!
Handy
Trading Tools
Learn Why Do You Need a Stop Loss 🟥
Hey traders,
Talking to many struggling traders from different parts of the world, I realized that the majority constantly makes the same mistake: they do not set a stop loss.
Asking for the reason why they do that, the common answer is that
these traders consider the manual position closing to be safer, implying that if the market goes in the opposite direction, they will be able to much better track the exact moment to cut loss.
In this article, we will discuss why it is crucially important to set a stop loss and why it is the number one element of your trading position.
First of all, let's discuss what is a stop loss. By a stop loss, we mean a certain price level where we close our trading position in loss. In comparison to a manual closing, the stop loss should be set at the exact moment when the order is executed.
Stop loss allows us limiting the risks in case of unfavorable movements.
On the chart above, I have illustrated 2 similar negative scenarios: 1 with a stop loss being placed and one without.
In the example on the left, stop loss helped to prevent the excessive risk, cutting the loss at the beginning of a bearish wave.
With the manual closing, however, traders usually hold the negative positions much longer, praying for a reversal.
Holding a losing trade, emotions intervene. Greed and fear usually spoil the reasoning, causing irrational decisions.
Following such a strategy, the total loss of the second scenario is 5 times bigger than the total loss with a placed stop loss order.
Stop loss defines the point where you become wrong in your predictions. Planning your trade, you should know in advance such a point and cut your loss once it is reached.
Never trade without a stop loss.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Trading Journals to Bring Your Trading Skills to the Next LevelHello, traders.
In this post, I am sharing tips for trading journals to bring your trading skills to the next level.
This post would help you if;
✅You are not sure what to write in a trading journal
✅You are not motivated to create your trading journal
✅You do not last in recording your trades
■ Importance of trading journals
Trading journal is important in order to;
1. Analyze your trades
Trading journals help traders identify problems and points to improve in your trades, by reviewing how you analyze the market and make decisions before taking positions.
Have you ever asked yourself after trades?
”Why did I take this trade??”
Even if you think you were calm and analyzed the market very carefully but you acted differently. This really happens.
With trading journals, you can review if your trades are rule-based, you have made wrong decisions and/or made any mistakes during trades.
2. Evaluate your strategies
Especially when traders are in the process of developing their own strategies, this evaluation is vital to make decisions on whether you need to improve something in your strategies or it is even worth using the strategies.
■ 3 Things to Remember When Creating a Trading Journal
1.PDCA Cycle
2.Design what kind of data you want to collect from your trading
3.Screenshots are musts
1.PDCA cycle is a well-known improvement method so I do not need to detail here, however, we, traders should always keep in mind that we have to keep improving ourselves and/or our strategies by conducting PDCA cycles for a single trade and for a group of trades during a certain period of time.
2.Another purpose of recording your trades is to collect data. Trading is a statistic business where data is very important for you to make decisions as there is no 100% in financial markets.
3.Humans’ memory is much weaker than we think. No matter how strongly we try to memorize what the markets look like, we forget. Because our memory is vulnerable.
This is why taking screenshots is important so that you can analyze your trades with the same conditions as when you took positions.
■ Sample criteria for creating a trading journal
Here’s is sample criteria(questions to yourself) when you make a journal.
✅ Why did you take this trade?
Is this trade as per your strategy or just one of FOMO entries?
Clarifying the reason to take this trade gives you a chance to review your thought process before the trading.
✅ What is your plan in this trade?
In my opinion, traders always should have what they aim in a trade that they are about to take.
Without this, traders are easily affected by emotions which ends up with cutting profit too early or even leads to out-of-rule trading.
✅ Result
Win/Lost/Even
✅ Plan TP/SL
Record planned TP/SL before you take trades in pips or currency(USD etc.) depending on the instruments you trade.
✅ Actual TP/SL
Record actual TP/SL in pips or currency(USD etc.) depending on the instruments you trade.
You can perform variance analysis comparing between plan and actual.
✅ Risk & Reward(RR)
RR is the breakeven point in trading business.
Whether your strategy can be profitable or not is all about balance between win rate and RR. It is vital to track and monitor RR.
✅ What is good about this trade?
Here is what I recommend to implement in your trading journals.
Trading including learning process is a completely solitary process.
When you are at school or at work, teachers and supervisors guide you in the right direction and praise us for good grades and good jobs. This experience of being praised will give you confidence in your studies and/or work, but this process normally does not happen in trading.
Therefore, when you are just starting out trading or when things do not go well, some traders might get lost asking themselves what they are doing is right or wrong.
That is why it is important to pat yourself on the back when you behave correctly in trading.
It is said that when people are praised, Dopamine is released in our brains which bring us to the feeling of well-being. Dopamine is also called “Happy hormone”, so the brain tries to work harder to reproduce that feeling of pleasure. In other words, you feel more positive and motivated, which leads to confidence along with the small successes of behaving correctly in trading.
This can only be a good thing, as it gives you confidence in your trading strategies.
Why don’t you give you a clap when you have done correctly?
✅ What improvement do you need from this trade?(Action for next trades)
To complete the last step of your trading PDCA cycle, consider what improvement/measures you have to implement against your mistakes and/or problems.
These action items will help you avoid making same mistakes in the future.
✅ Emotion
It is often said that recording your emotion during a trade is effective because emotion makes us make wrong decisions, break rules and chase the market like a horse chasing a carrot.
Did I get scared when executing trade? Why? Was I afraid all the time? Why? Reviewing your emotion would give you a hint on why you felt like that.
✅ Conviction
Conviction is how confident you are in a trade you took.(High/medium/low)
This is one of the ways to measure whether your confidence is statistically linked to your performance or just your imagination.
For example, you took 10 consecutive trades with high conviction rate and 7 out of 10 was successful trades. In this case, your view/analysis on the market is quite accurate and this makes you convinced that you should take a trade only when you feel highly convinced.
■ Trading Journal Tools
What tools do you use to record your trades?
Excel? Apps? Or even by hand writing? Let me know in the comment section below.
I am using a web service.(not sure if I can name the service here due to the house rules...)
It allows me to record all necessary info along with screenshots as well as creating monthly reports which definitely increase productivity and efficiency of trading journal.
Learn to Read The Candlesticks Like Pro
Candlesticks give you an instant snapshot of whether a market’s price movement was positive or negative, and to what degree. The timeframe represented in a candlestick can vary widely.
Green candles show prices going up, so the open is at the bottom of the body and the close is at the top. Red candles show prices declining, so the open is at the top of the body and close is at the bottom.
Each candle consists of the body and the wicks. The body of the candle tells you what the open and close prices were during the candle’s time frame.
The lines stretching from the top and bottom of the body are the wicks. These represent the highest and lowest prices the asset hit during the trading frame.
What do candlesticks tell us?
Candlesticks can reveal much more than just price movement over time. Experienced traders look for patterns in order to gauge market sentiment and to make predictions about where the market might be headed next. Here are some of the kinds of things they’re looking for:
A long wick on the bottom of a candle, for instance, might mean that traders are buying into an asset as prices fall, which may be a good indicator that the asset is on its way up.
A long wick at the top of a candle, however, could suggest that traders are looking to take profits — signaling a large potential sell-off in the near future.
If the body occupies almost all of the candle, with very short wicks (or no visible wicks) on either side, that might indicate a strongly bullish sentiment (on a green candle) or strongly bearish sentiment (on a red candle).
Understanding what candlesticks might mean in the context of a particular asset or within certain market conditions is one element of a trading strategy called technical analysis — by which investors attempt to use past price movements to identify trends and potential future opportunities.
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What is the U.S. Dollar Index?
The U.S. Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar against six other foreign currencies. Just as a stock index measures the value of a basket of securities relative to one another, the U.S. Dollar Index expresses the value of the dollar in relation to a “basket” of currencies. As the dollar gains strength, the index goes up and vice versa.
The strength of the dollar can be considered a temperature read of U.S. economic performance, especially regarding exports. The greater the number of exports, the higher the demand for U.S. dollars to purchase American goods.
The index is a geometric weighted average of six foreign currencies. Since the economy of each country (or group of countries) is of different size, each weighting is different. The countries included and their weights are as follows:
Euro (EUR): 57.6 percent
Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6 percent
British Pound (GBP): 11.9 percent
Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1 percent
Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2 percent
Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6 percent
The index is calculated using the following formula:
USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD^-0.576 × USDJPY^0.136 × GBPUSD^-0.119 × USDCAD^0.091 × USDSEK^0.042 × USDCHF^0.036
When the U.S. dollar is used as the base currency, as in the example above, the value is positive. When the U.S. dollar is the quoted currency, the value will be negative.
We constantly monitor the performance of DXY because very often it gives us great trading opportunities.
What do you want to learn in the next post?
Bitcoin Historical Volatility new low Here we have the BTC historical Volatility Index in blue. Orange is the price of BTC. The teal line is the 50sma for volatility. At the bottom, I have the correlation coefficient (CC) for the volatility index with BTC. I have marked in green when the CC reaches above 0.50, and red when it crosses below -0.50. The fibonacci retracement is fairly arbitrary, but fits nicely between 0.25 and 1.00. In this article, I would like to discuss a little bit about volatility. It is often associated as going up when price goes down, but is a bit more specific in what it is telling us than simply being an inverse price indicator. Next, I’ll talk about the correlation coefficient. It is an excellent tool that every trader, and investor, should learn to use. Finally, I would like to examine some of the similarities between our recent all time low in this index, breaking the low 2018, which proceeded the infamous 2018 capitulation event.
Volatility is always an interesting indicator, and is often used to indicate position risk for the asset it is being calculated for. Simply stated, it is a measure of how much the price of an asset moves in a particular period of time. However, it can be calculated a number of different ways. The most common is standard deviation, or how far price is from an average of the price over a recent period of time. The amount of time the data is taken from can also change how the volatility measure acts and how useful it is. More so, because it measures movement, and not so much direction, it can be difficult to use it in an accurate way, as correlation appears to be inconstant at face value. Historical volatility is calculated a little differently. And honestly, before reading a few papers on it for this essay, I had not realized that ‘historical’ referenced the calculation method as opposed to it being the history of the volatility. Historical, or realized, volatility is an estimation of the standard deviation of the price of returns over a particular period of time, in this case, 24 hours. It can also be calculated with a weighting for the trading volume over the calculation period. I have placed a 50ma (150 day moving average) to show a general range for average volatility, and we can see that MA tends to oscillate between 2.5 and 5.0.
The correlation coefficient is an excellent indicator that allows you to see, and quantify, the correlation of your current chart with any other chart ticker. Here I have it set to the BLX all time price index for BTC. The higher it goes, the more correlated the movement of the 2 charts are, and below zero indicates an inverse correlation. When CC is near zero, the movements of the two charts are NOT correlated. One of the issues with volatility indexes is their accuracy can vary, and is sometime disputed. My goal in using the correlation coefficient with this index is to parse out when volatility is most useful to pay attention to, and in which direction. On this chart, we can see that when volatility spikes above 10, it is often correlated with big, sudden moves to the downside. However, not all of them are. By using the correlation coefficient, we can parse out the direction of volatility. When CC is in the green, and volatility increases, we see the price of bitcoin moving up, usually in an explosive manner. Likewise, inverse correlation is often showing us downwards movements. I find this a useful way to pull a little bit of the noise out of the volatility index.
The previous all time low in volatility of 0.35 occurred on October 28th of 2018, and about sixteen days before the 2018 capitulation event began. About a week ago on Christmas day, we broke that low, going down to 0.34. Very low volatility tells us that price isn’t just moving sideways, but is pretty flat for the most part. And if you have been following bitcoin lately (bless your soul) you know flat and boring is kind of an understatement. The good news is that it’s likely going to get exciting soon. Volatility doesn’t seem to stay at or below 1.0 for very long, and seems to be either correlated, or inversely correlated with price within a few weeks to a month after reaching 1.0. An exception would be from August of 2019 to the pandemic crash in 2020. We can see some similarities in both volatility and the correlation coefficient between the time leading up to the 2018 capitulation event and our recent data in 2022. Price action is also fairly similar (flat and boring) with the exception that in 2018, the line chart had a small move down and back up during the flatness, while we had a small move up and then down earlier in December. Although, I doubt this really means anything. In 2018, we saw a 50% drop after price had already fallen around 70%. From top to bottom, the draw-down was just under 85%. Another 50% draw-down from where we are at the time of writing would take the price of bitcoin to just over $8,000.
So what does this mean? Well, I can tell you, for sure, 100%, that I can not tell the future. I will be, however, watching my new chart very closely. But I would say it is likely we’ll be seeing something exciting, and it will probably be in January. Unfortunately, it looks like CC moves down just as fast as price, and as fast as volatility moves up during sudden, capitulation like events. However, Bitcoin always has a way of surprising everyone. If CC moves down to 0, and then puts in another local high in the next week, I would be a little spooked. If it keeps moving up to 0.50, it may be an interesting and unexpected move to the upside. Regardless of what happens, I would encourage everyone to try to understand volatility a little better than you already do, and use the correlation coefficient indicator. It is a simple, yet versatile tool that can be used to quantify data in a way that makes a trading strategy precise. Here’s to 2023, I wish you well, and thanks for reading.
How to place the first trade from the Trading Panel using DhanHi Community 👋
We are delighted to be the first Indian broker on TradingView! What gives us even more joy is that close to 14,000 Indians are already trading from tradingview.com with Dhan 🥳
Since this is one of our first posts, we’d like to help new users understand how simple it is to place their first trade from the Trading Panel using Dhan. Here’s the flow:
1. Open TradingView.com
Navigate to tradingview.com and sign in with your credentials. If you don’t have an account yet, create one using the blue button that says “Get Started”.
2. Choose Dhan from the Trading Panel
After signing in, you’ll be taken to a random scrip from the US (you can avoid this by landing on in.tradingview.com). But that’s not what you’re interested in - you want to connect to Dhan.
On the Trading Panel in the lower half of the screen, you’ll see a list of brokers - including Dhan. Tap on the button that says “Connect”.
3. Login to Dhan Using QR
Open your Dhan App and click on your profile picture - it’ll open a navigation pane. Over there, you’ll see an option that says “Login to Desktop”.
Click on it and scan the QR that you see on your desktop. That’s it - you’ve connected Dhan to TradingView!
4. Select the Scrip You Want to Trade
By now you will be able to see TradingView charts. On the top left, there’s an option called “Symbol Search”.
Click on it to search for the scrips you want. P.S: Connecting to TradingView will allow you to buy and sell equity via Dhan (not F&O, currency, or commodity).
5. Place Orders from the Trading Panel
You’re on the final step! Place your first trade from the Trading Panel using:
Charts: Use the blue and red buttons to buy or sell scrips from charts
Order Panel: Available on the navigation pane to the right (looks like two up & down arrows)
DOM: Place trades from the Depth of Market option on the navigation pane to the right
+ button near price scale: Hover on charts to get the + button & create new orders
Those who are already using tv.dhan.co know how easy it is to trade from charts. The process is more or less the same with certain exceptions.
We hope you enjoy the experience and if you have any questions, feel free to write to us in the comments below.
Until next time!
Regards,
Team Dhan
How to Adjust Your Stock Chart for Inflation, Dividends, and TaxUsing a pretty simple formula involving CPI , we can adjust the stock chart to show real returns instead of nominal returns. Real returns represent a more accurate picture of the return of the stock over time. In addition, we can easily adjust returns for dividends and estimated taxes.
The unknown obvious: equity controlIt's easy to get a mili a year if you trade 100M account, that'll be 1% a year. A lil bit harder but still easy af to get a mili of you have 10M capital, that'll be 10% a year.
That's how many of "skilled" and famous market participants earn dem money. You might say, "Wait, but that's really not a lot, markets can give much more for these capitals".
Yes but given what they have it's all they can do. They been running very shitty bots for decades, they don't really understand how the market works & how to operate. It's especially widespread in cryptos, a lot of people got rich by accident and now they tryna run a business xD
Anyways, there's a tool that helps dem all to get that 10%/y for investors money, a very obvious thing that is called equity control.
Look at the chart here, is this an equity chart of some1 who've bought TSLA stock during IPO or is it price chart of TSLA stock?
If you think deeper, you don't really care about the price of an asset, you care about your equity. If you buy an asset and then look at your account equity after a while, these two charts will be the same. Every strategy can be viewed as a response modifier, it takes an asset chart, for example, IBM stock, and transform it into a different equity chart, with the ultimate goal of having constant always rising equity chart. Market is fractal, the same principles propagate through all the resolutions, they also propagate to your equity chart.
How can you affect an asset chart? You can buy or sell, 2 actions.
How can you affect equity chart? You can reduce size (down to zero) or increase size, 2 actions.
So what these "skilled" and famous participants do, they stop sending they orders to the real market when a shitty bot/trader/manager starts to loose money, but continue trading on a simulator. When this entity starts to earn money again, it gets "connected" to the real market again. How do they define earning/loosing money? They apply the same strategy/quantitative method they use on asset charts. It could be an SMA, I won't be surprised.
Thing is, you can use the same concept in the right way, you can apply a good method on your equity chart to boost the performance in certain times.
10 Lessons To Learn In Forex10 Lessons To Learn In Forex:
1) Learn All Basic Terminology - Pip, Lot, Margin, Spread, Leverage, Base currency, Rollover etc...
2) Demo Trade For At least 1 Year - Then Trade Low Lot Size To Start Real Trading With, When you are ready.
3) Risk Management Is #1- Always Control Risk/Reward (keep all trades to 1% to 2% of your total account).
4) Always Have A Strategy/Plan- If Serious Follow It always. You want to demo trade until you find one which has a positive win rate over 100 or 1000 trades.
5) Try Price Action Only Charts- Naked Charts Tell You Everything. Start learning and even real trading with money on just price action charts. You can add Fib retracements & extensions, trend lines, support, resistance, etc. over them as needed.
6) Journaling Trades To Learn- To Find An Edge & Answer Q's. You want to put things like the following in a forex journal: pair trades, buy or sell, price entered, stop loss, exit price, loss or profit, reason whey you took trade, etc...
7) All Indicators Are Lagging-They Tell You Past Not Future. Yes, you can use indicators & some are useful in trading, but depend on time frame, etc.. but they are unnecessary in forex trading.
8) Scalp/Day trade On Higher TF's-Easier Using 1Hr, 4Hr or Daily. Any timeframes under 1 hour should be used to get a better entry into a trades and also to use a tighter stop loss, but using 1hr, 4hr & daily should be used to find quality setups that match up with your strategy and/or plan.
9) Learn Candlestick Language-They Give You A lot Of Info. Look at naked or just price action charts on any timeframes, what do you see? Candlestick bodies and wicks/shadows, reversals, times when same pairs tend to have trending or sideways price action. Buying/Selling pressure & trading patterns, etc...
10) Forex Trading Is A Marathon - Not A Sprint Race. Trading Forex can be a full time job, if you are serious and treat it like a business. The slow approach is best one to trade with- let your account slowly build up, using compound interest, by controlling risk and reward per trade to 1% to 2%, with a winning strategy/plan or having a profitable win rate in trading, your account will go higher then you think- have no fear, no greed & have patience.
The unknown obvious: when to use log-scaleThere's a semi-wide-spread snake oil "wisdom" in near-quant circles that you need to use log-charts/log-scale/log-transform all the time.
No, you need to use it only when the range of the data been processed exceeds one order of magnitude (data maximum at least 10 times data minimum). Before dat, no-no! Please, don't stabilize the variance unless it'll asks you to.
Now bringing your attention to the important detail -> data 'being processed'. It means that you don't push the log button when your chart's arbitrary time range is 456-986755. You push dat button when the particular domain (part of the chart) you analyze does exceed one order of magnitude.
P.S.: disregard the studies applied, it's all R&D
Imaginary levels: fair price aka valueIntro
So called "value" or fair price is like limits in math, can be infinitely approached but never reached. We can model it, anticipate it, imagine it , but it doesn't make it real. In double/dual auctions fair price is an idea.
We can surely say that some prices are too cheap and too expensive, these are real levels that can proved with evidence. The only thing we can surely say about value is that it's somewhere in middle between these 2, everything else ain't better than just making projections or extrapolations. Neither time nor volume profile won't magically calculate you a fair price buy finding mode of the distribution, it's not better (and probably worse) than just taking an average. None can prove a price to be fair for both buyers and sellers.
It cannot even consistently exist due to the nature of double/dual auction. We have bid & asks, not just bids. A simple illustration is GE futures, that can trade at 2 neighboring ticks for ages, in order for a fair price to even appear for a second, bid should move one tick down or ask should move one tick up, so a free space will be created, only at this point a fair price starts to exist. But guess what? You can't make a trade at this price while it's fair, because in in order for a trade to happen there some1 should place a bid or ask at this free space, at this point the fair price disappears.
You're automatically quoting CL futures at 19:00 Chicago time, BBO is 89.56-89.57. An imaginary fair price of 89.565 can't neither exist nor be traded due to tick size of 0.01.
There's a buy action and a sell action, there's no action in the middle. You can place either bid or ask, the're no "in the middle".
We can go for ages logically proving that fair price is always imaginary, but what we know 2 things: it's in the middle between cheap & expensive, and it appears when there's widening of prices.
The same principle applies to all the resolutions due to the fact that recorded trading activity is quasi-fractal (quasi because fractals go infinitely in both directions, it's not our case exactly).
Howto
After an exhaustion/overexertion a wave should stop and produce another wave in the opposite direction, whatever the size. Sometimes due to other factors it does not happen, and an already overextended/exhausted wave continues to go much further. This wave can be called an overridden wave because this kind of event happens due to an exogenous (not in the data analyzed) event. This event "overrides" the exhausted wave and fuels it to continue. In every overridden wave, its middle aka fair price aka value is an imaginary level that can be used.
A wave that started at 337.89 became overextended/exhausted in both price and time when it reached ~450. After hitting 450 it didn't stop but continued and went really far. It has finally stopped in year 2000 and a sell wave emerged. Knowing that we witness an overridden wave, we start to consider value as a temporary legit level. Imaginary, but still a level, ain't no options aye? And again, we use imaginary levels when there's nothing else, but a decision has to be made.
Statistically, overridden waves are the structural breaks. A serious change. Fair price is supposed to become new cheap or new expensive.
Imaginary levels: wave exhaustion priceCan't explain this 4 real until I explain how to properly locate levels & distinguish buying & selling waves. I KNOW I'M MESSING UP WITH ORDER OF INFO SUPPLY, SORRY.
Still...
Pretty soon you'll understand that 3393.52 and 2191.86 are the levels, and there's one buying wave between em.
Point 1 is the wave start.
Point 2 is the wave end.
When 3393.52 get cleared, another buying wave starts originating @ 3393.52 & point 2.
All the details & questions will be explained & answered later.
Now just focus on the wave exhaustion prices.
Every wave becomes exhausted in terms of price when it's range exceeds the range of the previous wave in the same direction. Not a lil bit before, exclusively past the threshold value.
So after getting past this level and considering the other conditions that would be explained later the current wave becomes prone to end and consequent start of another wave in the opposite direction.
Just as with partition levels (that are imaginary as well), these levels don't make much use any more when the real price activity start to emerge there. Imaginary levels are used when there's no alternative, but a decision has to be made.
Imaginary levels: partitionsImaginary levels are used when there’s no alternative, but a decision has to be made. We need something to "snap" to.
No, these are not the binary levels like 512, 8912 or 65536 that I'm sure a lot of funny people are hiding or present as super secret, lol no.
When there's truly nothing else and just the empty medium, we take partition function, give her all the integers, and get the levels around which the long-term order flow might change direction. Dem are already calculated, called Sequence A000041 , more info there .
That's the natural way how to find level in the emptiness.
After having the real trading activity at these levels we can forget dem partition levels, ain't no reason to use em anymore.
Since the start of 20th century, mainstream text book science seem to forget about the concept of aether (tldr the emptiness is an object itself, and it's not uniform, 'everything' exists in a medium including waves & light, totally obvious if you use your own head for thinking). As usually, the lovely market, as a sub-universe in our universe, is the same, teaching the real stuff & proving fakies wrong.
Template Trailing Strategy - Part 02A short introduction on how to set up the "Template Trailing Strategy" script with a signal indicator like the "Two MA Signal indicator".
An explanation of the TMASI and its settings that are the same as the Strategy - Internal section logic of the TTS.
A tutorial on creating your own signal indicator, connect it to the TTS to apply your trading logic.
Learn Pros & Cons of Trading on Demo Account
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss demo account trading.
We will discuss its importance for newbie traders and its flaws.
➕Pros:
Demo account is the best tool to get familiar with the financial markets. It gives you instant access to hundreds of different financial instruments.
With a demo account, you can learn how the trading terminal works. You can execute the trading orders freely and get familiar with its types. You can get acquainted with leverage, spreads and volatility.
Trading on paper money, you do not incur any risks, while you can see the real impact of your actions on your account balance.
Demo account is the best instrument for developing and testing a trading strategy, not risking any penny.
The absence of risk makes demo trading absolutely stress-free.
➖Cons:
The incurred losses have no real impact, not causing real emotions and pressure, which you always experience trading on a real account.
Your performance (positive or negative) does not influence your future decisions.
Real market conditions are tougher. Demo accounts execute the orders a bit differently than the real ones. That is clearly felt during the moments of high volatility, with the order slippage occurring less often and trade execution being longer.
Trading with paper money allows you to trade with the sums being unaffordable in a real life, misrepresenting your real potential gains and providing a false confidence in success.
Even though we spotted multiple negative elements of demo trading, I want you to realize that it still remains the essential part of your trading journey and one of the main training tools. You should spend as much time on demo trading as you need to build confidence in your actions, only then you can gradually switch to real account trading.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
4 Signs that Say You’re Ready for Full-Time Trading
For forex traders, nothing embodies freedom more than those who trade full-time. After all, full-time traders enjoy freedom from their box-type offices, freedom of time, and freedom to choose which trading opportunities to take.
Unfortunately, this brand of independence isn’t for everyone. Just like too much freedom can do more harm than good for some economies, not all traders are ready to trade full-time.
So how do you know when you’re ready for full-time trading? From what we’ve seen from online forex communities, we can narrow it down to four signs:
1. You have enough capital
Trading full time means that you’ll be quitting your job, your primary source of income. And, because you’re realistic, you know that you probably won’t be making any serious trading money in your first few months.
2. You have tried and tested other methods and strategies
Not only do you need to have a strategy that has proven to be profitable for you, but you also have to have other equally qualified methods that would work for other trading conditions. After all, you never know when and for how long the market trends will shift!
3. You have spent a considerable amount of time trading LIVE
Trading a live account brings forth trading psychology hurdles that you wouldn’t get from trading demo accounts.
In addition, you have to have a fairly good grasp of your trading strengths and weaknesses, and, more importantly, you should know how to stick to a trading plan before you make trading your full-time job.
4. Trading is your passion
Trading currencies is what motivates you to get up and get busy every morning.
Remember that while full-time trading would provide you more opportunities to catch market movements, you don’t need to be a full-time trader to be consistently profitable.
What do you want to learn in the next post?
The 5 Outcomes Of a Trade | How not to blow your account
Successful traders know there are 5 outcomes that can come out of a trading position. When managed well these outcomes can lead to great success. However, when manage badly can cause disaster to a trader’s account.
Below I’ll highlight and discuss the possible 5 outcomes of a trade and how you can manage them.
1. Small Profit
This is when a position ends in a very small profit, for trend traders, this is usually the case. However, in this situation, there is no loss.
2. Small Loss
This is when you lose a small amount at the close of your position. This is part of normal and good trading. In fact, you should cut your losses early. Taking small losses or cutting your losses early will help you stay in this business long term.
3. Breakeven
This is a position where you really didn’t make or lose any money. They’ll come too, they are not necessarily bad trades. These types of trades may just mean you should find re-entry to the position or may just be a quick exit without a loss or profit.
4. Big Profit
This is when a position ends in a very big profit. This type of trade does not come too often but when they do come they are the trades that move your general account return for the period to the next level. As a trader, these are the type of trades you should look forward to.
5. Big Loss
This is when a position ends up closing at a very big loss. This type of trade should never happen on your trading account as a pro-trader. This is the type of trade that can blow your trading account. It’s why you should know how to cut your losses quickly and take a small loss.
I’m glad I’ve been able to share with you the possible outcomes of a trade and how you can manage them properly. A simple knowledge like this can suddenly turn your trading account to become profitable.
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SK Chart OverlaySK Chart Overlay by Stephen Kalayjian and TradeEZ is advertised as a "cutting edge proprietary chart overlay, with built-in predictive analytics for trading" . The same set of indicators and similar chart setups were used by Stephen Kalayjian in his previous failed projects KnowVera and Ticker Tocker . A closer look into these projects reveals that these indicators are just rebranded well known indicators with a little bit of lipstick.
Trade EZ MA - Welles MA (10) / EMA (19)
Trade EZ 1 - MACD(12, 26, 9)
Trade EZ 2 - DMI (14, 14)
Trade EZ 3 - Stochastic (5, 3, 3)
Trade EZ 4 - ATR Supertrend (52, 2.5) + Welles MA (5) / EMA (9) - previously known as KnowVera Trend Channel and later Ticker Tocker Trend Channel
Chart setup is available at www.tradingview.com
Forex Market: Who Trades Currencies & Why
The foreign exchange or forex market is the largest financial market in the world – larger even than the stock market, with a daily volume of $6.6 trillion.
The forex market not only has many players but many types of players. Here we go through some of the major types of institutions and traders in forex markets:
Commercial & Investment Banks
The greatest volume of currency is traded in the interbank market. This is where banks of all sizes trade currency with each other and through electronic networks. Big banks account for a large percentage of total currency volume trades.
Central Banks
Central banks, which represent their nation's government, are extremely important players in the forex market. Open market operations and interest rate policies of central banks influence currency rates to a very large extent.
A central bank is responsible for fixing the price of its native currency on forex. This is the exchange rate regime by which its currency will trade in the open market. Exchange rate regimes are divided into floating, fixed and pegged types.
Investment Managers and Hedge Funds
Portfolio managers, pooled funds and hedge funds make up the second-biggest collection of players in the forex market next to banks and central banks. Investment managers trade currencies for large accounts such as pension funds and foundations.
Multinational Corporations
Firms engaged in importing and exporting conduct forex transactions to pay for goods and services.
Individual Investors
The volume of forex trades made by retail investors is extremely low compared to financial institutions and companies. However, it is growing rapidly in popularity.
There is a reason why forex is the largest market in the world: It empowers everyone from central banks to retail investors to potentially see profits from currency fluctuations related to the global economy.
What do you want to learn in the next post?
Learn How to Apply a Position Size Calculator
Hey traders,
In this educational article, I will teach you how to apply a position size calculator and calculate a lot size for your trades depending on a desired risk.
First of all, let's briefly discuss why do you need a position size calculator.
Even though, most of the newbie traders trade with the fixed lot, the truth is that fixed lot trading is considered to be very risky.
Depending on the trading instrument, time frame and a desired stop loss, the risks from one trade to another are constantly floating. With the constant fluctuations of losses per trade, it is very complicated to control your risks and drawdowns.
A lot size calculation, however, allows you to risk the desired percentage of your capital per trade, limiting the maximum you can potentially lose.
A lot size is calculated with a position size calculator.
It is integrated in some trading platforms like cTrader. If it is absent in yours, there are a lot of free ones available on the internet.
Step 1:
Measure a pip value of your stop loss.
It is the distance from your entry level to your stop loss level.
In the example on the picture, the stop loss is 290 pips.
Step 2:
Open a position size calculator
Step 3:
Fill the form.
Inputs: Account currency, account balance, desired risk %, stop loss in pips, currency pair.
In the example, we are trading with USD account. Its value is $20000. Trading instrument is EURUSD.
Step 4:
Calculate a lot size
The system will calculate a lot size for your trade.
0.069 standard lot in our example.
Taking a trade on EURUSD with $20000 deposit and 290 pips stop loss, you will need 0.069 lot size to risk 1% of your trading account.
Learn to apply a position size calculator. That is the must-use tool for a proper risk management.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
7 Stages to Financial Freedom and How You Can Get There
Today we will discuss the stages you go through to reach freedom and how you can achieve it with awesome thinking models.
The journey to financial freedom includes seven stages.
1. Clarity
This is the stage where you are clear about your current financial position and where you want to be.
2. Self-sufficiency
This is the stage where you can bear all your expenses by yourself. You are not dependent on anyone for your survival. This also means you earn enough to sustain your expenses.
3. Breathing room
This is the stage where you have saved enough to sustain yourself for a couple of months, even if you lose your source of income right now.
4. Stability
This is the stage where you have paid off all your debts and you also have a saving to sustain you for at least 6 months in advance.
5. Flexibility
This is the stage where you have saved enough money to sustain yourself for two years in advance.
6. Financial independence
This is the stage where your money earns more for you. It’s when you have enough investments and savings that the return you get is enough to sustain your expenses without working. At this point, you work on something because it’s your hobby, and not to earn money.
7. Abundant wealth
This is the stage where you have accumulated so much money that you would not be able to spend all in your lifetime.
But how do you progress through these stages and achieve financial freedom?
Here are some awesome thinking models you can use to head towards financial freedom.
1. Time is more valuable than money.
2. Compounding can help you achieve it earlier
3. Make money with a side business
4. Learn to sell stuff
As it should be your ultimate financial goal, it is never enough to talk about achieving financial freedom. I wish you luck, dear traders.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
The Iceberg Illusion: The hidden logic of success
We often get mesmerized by someone’s above the surface success and don’t factor in all the below the surface opportunity-costs they paid to achieve that success.
This is the ‘iceberg illusion’. It’s been a fav analogy of mine for years. And yet, this just might be a better visual for sport than the ‘iceberg illusion’.
You see… the hyper focus on outcomes is one of the biggest failings (or façades) that comes from social media. It creates a false impression of what leads to success.
We see the success, but not the work that went into it… The unseen hours, necessary failures, setbacks, crises of confidence, the not-now’s (to the countless asks), the loneliness, the late nights and early mornings; and, all the wobbling that comes before the walking—much less running.
There are no shortcuts. There are no overnight successes.
The iceberg doesn’t move quickly. It’s not sped up. It just moves consistently; at often a barely discernible speed.
What do you want to learn in the next post?