The U.S. Dollar Index | Everything You Need to Know
The U.S. Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar against six other foreign currencies. Just as a stock index measures the value of a basket of securities relative to one another, the U.S. Dollar Index expresses the value of the dollar in relation to a “basket” of currencies. As the dollar gains strength, the index goes up and vice versa.
The strength of the dollar can be considered a temperature read of U.S. economic performance, especially regarding exports. The greater the number of exports, the higher the demand for U.S. dollars to purchase American goods.
The index is a geometric weighted average of six foreign currencies. Since the economy of each country (or group of countries) is of different size, each weighting is different. The countries included and their weights are as follows:
Euro (EUR): 57.6 percent
Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6 percent
British Pound (GBP): 11.9 percent
Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1 percent
Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2 percent
Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6 percent
The index is calculated using the following formula:
USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD^-0.576 × USDJPY^0.136 × GBPUSD^-0.119 × USDCAD^0.091 × USDSEK^0.042 × USDCHF^0.036
When the U.S. dollar is used as the base currency, as in the example above, the value is positive. When the U.S. dollar is the quoted currency, the value will be negative.
We constantly monitor the performance of DXY because very often it gives us great trading opportunities.
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Algorithm vs Human trading | Which one is the best?Introduction
Algorithmic trading has been more popular in recent years, leading some investors to speculate that their human counterparts would soon become obsolete.
Algorithmic trading, according to some experts, provides a number of benefits over human trading, such as the capacity to examine data and make judgments more rapidly.
Nonetheless, there are many who believe that human traders still have value since computers cannot replace their expertise and intuition.
In this article, we'll take a look at the pros and cons of algorithmic trading and discuss its use in the financial markets.
Gains from Algorithmic Trading
Algorithmic trading has the benefit of being quick. Trading choices may be made by algorithms in microseconds, far quicker than by humans.
This enables investors to take advantage of opportunities that may be missed by human traders and respond swiftly to shifts in the market.
Algorithms also have the benefit of being able to trade around the clock, seven days a week, expanding the hours during which markets may be monitored and exploited.
Eliminating human emotion from trading choices is another benefit of algorithmic trading.
When human traders let their emotions cloud their judgment, the results may be disastrous.
Trading judgments made by algorithms, on the other hand, are more likely to be consistent and objective since they are based on facts and logic rather than emotion.
Last but not least, trading fees might be lowered with the use of algorithmic trading.
Algorithms eliminate the potential for human mistake and save money on transaction fees by trading automatically.
Algorithmic Trading's Drawbacks
While algorithmic trading has many benefits, it is also possible that it might have negatives.
The potential for mistakes to be made by trading algorithms is a worry. Mistakes made by algorithms might be costly if they aren't recognized right away.
In addition, losses are possible while using trading algorithms since they are pre-set to react in a predetermined way to market movements or occurrences.
Lack of human intuition is another issue that has been raised in relation to algorithmic trading.
While algorithms are programmed to process information and execute trades, they may overlook intangibles like political events and fluctuations in public opinion.
Nonetheless, human traders may be able to employ non-data factors, such as intuition and experience, while making trading judgments.
And last, algorithmic trading may amplify market volatility.
Algorithms' ability to rapidly respond to market shifts may both benefit traders and contribute to more volatility.
How Humans Fit Into Algorithmic Markets
Even if there are benefits to using algorithms to trade, human traders are still vital to the market.
A major benefit of human traders is that they may utilize their expertise and instincts while making trading judgments.
Those in the trading industry may account for intangibles like public sentiment and political events while making trades.
Human traders have the benefit of being able to quickly adjust to new market conditions.
Algorithms are designed to make trades based on predetermined parameters, but they may not be able to adapt to sudden shifts in the market.
But, human traders may be better able to adjust to these shifts thanks to their expertise and intuition, allowing them to make non-data-driven trading judgments.
At long last, human traders may supplement automated risk-control measures.
Although risk management algorithms may be set to minimize losses in theory, human traders may be able to see threats that the software misses.
Conclusion
Although there are benefits to using an algorithm for trading, it is not yet eliminating the need for human traders.
Experienced human traders still play a crucial role in the market because machines cannot replicate their wisdom, insight, and responsiveness to sudden shifts.
5 New Algorithmic Trading StrategiesAlgorithmic trading has transformed the financial markets in recent years, enabling traders to make better-informed investment decisions and execute trades more quickly and accurately than ever before. As technology continues to evolve, new algorithmic trading strategies and techniques are emerging that promise to revolutionize the way that financial instruments are traded. In this article, we will discuss five new algorithmic trading strategies and techniques that are gaining popularity among traders.
Machine Learning-Based Trading
Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence that allows algorithms to learn from data and improve their performance over time. Machine learning-based trading is a strategy that uses algorithms to identify patterns in financial data and make predictions about future market movements. These algorithms can learn from both historical data and real-time market information to make trading decisions that are informed by a deep understanding of the underlying trends and patterns in the market.
High-Frequency Trading
High-frequency trading (HFT) is a strategy that uses algorithms to execute trades at lightning-fast speeds, often in milliseconds or microseconds. This strategy requires sophisticated algorithms and high-speed networks to be effective, and it is typically used by institutional investors and large trading firms. HFT is often associated with controversial practices such as front-running and flash crashes, but it can also be used to improve market liquidity and reduce trading costs for investors.
Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment analysis is a technique that uses natural language processing algorithms to analyze the tone and sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other sources of public information. This technique can be used to identify trends and patterns in public sentiment that may affect the price of financial instruments. For example, if a news article about a company is overwhelmingly positive, sentiment analysis algorithms may predict that the stock price of that company will rise in the short term.
Multi-Asset Trading
Multi-asset trading is a strategy that involves trading multiple financial instruments across different markets and asset classes. This strategy requires algorithms that can analyze a wide range of data sources, including market news, economic indicators, and social media sentiment, to make informed decisions about which assets to trade and when to enter or exit positions. Multi-asset trading is often used by institutional investors and hedge funds to diversify their portfolios and hedge against market risk.
Quantum Computing-Based Trading
Quantum computing is a cutting-edge technology that promises to revolutionize many fields, including finance. Quantum computing-based trading is a strategy that uses algorithms that run on quantum computers to analyze complex financial data and make trading decisions. Quantum computing algorithms are able to analyze a much larger amount of data than classical computing algorithms, which can enable traders to identify hidden patterns and relationships in financial data that are difficult to detect using traditional techniques.
In conclusion, algorithmic trading is an exciting and rapidly evolving field that is transforming the financial markets. The five strategies and techniques discussed in this article represent some of the most promising developments in the field, and they are likely to play a major role in the future of trading. As technology continues to advance, it is important for traders to stay informed about the latest developments in algorithmic trading and adopt new strategies and techniques to stay ahead of the curve.
Algorithmic Trading / Robo-TradingAlgorithmic Trading: Automating Financial Markets for Greater Efficiency and Profitability
Explanation
Algorithmic trading, also known as robo trading, is a process of using computer programs to execute trades automatically based on pre-defined rules or algorithms. It has revolutionized the way financial markets operate, making them more efficient, faster, and less prone to errors caused by human emotions.
Advantages
The advantages of algorithmic trading are numerous. Firstly, it enables traders to analyze vast amounts of data and execute trades with incredible speed and precision, resulting in improved profitability. It eliminates human error and bias, which are significant sources of trading losses. Secondly, algorithmic trading allows for 24/7 trading, regardless of the trader's location or time zone, which makes it possible to take advantage of global market movements. Finally, algorithmic trading also provides a level of transparency and accountability, as trades are executed automatically, and the outcomes are recorded in real-time.
History
The history of algorithmic trading dates back to the 1970s when the first computerized trading system was developed by the NYSE to automate the execution of large trades. The system was based on the principle of matching buyers and sellers electronically, and it soon became the norm for trading in the US equity markets. However, it was not until the 1990s that algorithmic trading began to gain traction in other financial markets.
As computing power increased and access to market data improved, algorithmic trading systems became more sophisticated, enabling traders to execute trades with greater precision and accuracy. With the introduction of low-latency trading platforms in the 2000s, algorithmic trading became even faster and more efficient, allowing traders to take advantage of even the smallest market movements.
Today, algorithmic trading is used in almost every financial market, including stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. It is estimated that more than 80% of all trades in the US equity markets are executed by algorithms, and the trend is growing in other financial markets worldwide.
In conclusion, algorithmic trading has transformed the financial markets by improving their efficiency, speed, and profitability. It is a powerful tool for traders and investors, providing them with the ability to analyze vast amounts of data, execute trades with incredible speed and accuracy, and eliminate the emotional biases that often lead to trading losses. As technology continues to evolve, we can expect algorithmic trading to become even more sophisticated, providing traders with even greater opportunities to profit from the global financial markets.
What News to Follow | Top 5 Forex Fundamentals
Economic indicators and announcements are an essential part of fundamental analysis. Even if you’re not planning on finding trades using fundamentals, it’s a good idea to pay attention to how the overall economy is performing.
Here’s a cheat sheet covering six key indicators and announcements to watch out for.
1. Non-farm payrolls (NFP)
The non-farm payrolls report estimates the net number of jobs gained in the US in the previous month – excluding those in farms, private households and non-profit organisations.
2. Consumer price index (CPI)
The chief measure of inflation is the consumer price index, which measures the changing prices of a group of consumer goods and services.
3. Central bank meetings
As we’ve seen, most traders follow economic figures so they can anticipate what a central bank might do next. So, it only makes sense that we pay attention to what happens when they actually meet and make decisions.
4. Consumer and business sentiment reports
Multiple organisations are constantly surveying consumers and business leaders to create sentiment reports. While the number of reports they produce is staggering, they all play their part in shaping the markets’ expectation for the future.
5. Purchasing manager index (PMI)
Purchasing manager indices measure the prevailing direction of economic trends in a given industry, according to the view of its purchasing managers. They are used as an indicator of the overall health of a sector.
Pay close attention to these fundamentals.
They play a crutial role in trading.
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The most common mistakes in trading
Today, I will share a practical secret that I have learned for many years. Don’t hesitate when trading. If you hesitate, then don’t trade in the short term.
Many people also have the habit of making trading plans. For example, I will enter the market at any position today, but when the opportunity really arises, I hesitate to make a decision. After the market ends, I find that I have made a profit, but I did not enter the market, and wait until the opportunity appears again. At that time, I thought to wait a little longer, but it turned out to be profitable again, and I still didn’t enter the market. Finally, I finally made up my mind that the next time I was in this position, I would definitely enter the market. As a result, when he entered the market, what he ushered in was a loss.
In fact, in the trading market, good entry opportunities are fleeting and will not come often. If frequent entry opportunities appear, it must be a trap. When you have made a plan, all you need to do is Strictly implement, if you have no confidence when you enter the market, then I suggest that you do not make any transactions in the short term, because your plan has been disrupted, and the market likes to confuse your eyes and challenge your bottom line. It's also a psychological game.
I make my trading plan every day and strictly implement it, so friends who follow me can receive my plan as soon as possible, which can be used as a reference, but I will choose to enter the market at the first time, if you hesitate, choose the second The second or third chance to enter the market, the probability of loss will increase a lot, so don’t do this, you can consult me to get the latest plan.
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Educational: How I use the CoT-Data to verify EW countsHi guys today I want to do a short educational on how I use the CoT-data to validate longer term EW counts. Normaly I update my CoT-Spreadheets on Sunday. But since we have been waiting for the data to be released for three weeks now, I have time to show you, how useful it can be.
Unfortunately my english writing skills have detoriorated over time but I guess that my charts will make the point.
I guess most of you have already heard about the CoT-Report and know what kind of data is report. So I go right in medias res.
When looking at the CoT-Data I first calculate the net positions of the three trader categories. Here in Tradingview you find community indicators, that can do that for you.
The idea is that large speculators are skilled traders that trade the trend. So when the market trend is up the net position of the large speculators should be long and in the best case increase from week to week. Usually the large speculators carry the largest net long position, when the trend is old and nearing the top.
Commercials normaly do the opposite. They try to hedge their business (consumer) or lock in high prices (producer). In normal circumstances they mirror the position of the large speculators.
So normaly you can follow the large speculator and profit form the market trend.
The CoT-data gets interesting, when we near a turning point and the positions of the large speculators and commercials reach extreme levels. The idea here is, that large specs even though they have a large portfolio their monetary resources are limited whilst the hedging commercials have bigger pockets.
When the position of the large specs reaches new highs one expect the trend to end because they have no more ammunition to ignite a further up or down move. On the other hand the commercials how know the fundamentals of the market can now ignite a move in the opposite direction.
That is the basic idea. So what I do is to compare the net positon with historical position. Therefore I calculate an index over the last 3 years. The formula is Index = 100 * (current net position - minimum net) / (maximum net - minimum net). The index ranges from 0 = lowest net (short) position in free years and 100 highest (long) position in three years.
When the index is above 80 or below 20 the market is ripe for a change in the larger trend. Unfortunately the CoT is only seldom a great instrument to time the market. Commercials can ride against the trend over extended periods. I know for sure, cause more than one time I had to close a position. But it is great as a filter or in combinination with EW or seasonality. When in a final wave 5 in either direction you want to see those extreme Index levels.
For those interested I will continue below. But now I want to drive home one of the most important points.
SPEED MATTERS! Commercials know the fundamentals of their market. And if they hastyly sell out and turn their position something big is going to happen. You can see this in the above chart of ES.
More recent I have a chart of Bitcoin, were you can see, that commercials act swiftly if they see an opportunity.
I produce a spreadsheet every week, were I calculate the current index value and the change from the week before and over 4 weeks. I hope that I that data will be released next friday so I can update. You can download the spreadsheet at docs.google.com
In the spreadsheet you can also see the market bias. Market Bias is the net position of the large speculator minus the net position of the commercials. So if for example the large speculators are net long and the commercials are net short the net net position of the commercials will be added to the net position of the large speculator. The total balance then shows the amount of contracts in favor of the current trend. As with the index the change and speed of change is more important than the value itself.
I hope you enjoyed this and gathered some helpful information and I will come up with some new EW analysis next week. Have a great weekend.
How to complete a trading journalIn short, a trading strategy is a plan that you draw up, taking into account a huge number of factors ... Starting from trading charts - ending with what the weather is like outside today. There you also fix negative things. All that leads to losses. Well, the most important thing for which we record all this is to make a super duper analysis and clearly and clearly see what the losses are due to. Further, of course, we try to exclude them. Why is it necessary? In order not to stand in one place and finally reduce the number of negative transactions.
In order to be able to clearly identify all positive and negative factors, a trading journal is required, which should include:
1) Risk management strategy and profit taking.
2) Trading plan as you see it and tools to use in trading.
3) Psychological state when you feel greedy or fomo, from missed opportunities.
For these factors, it will take a long and dreary time to collect statistics. The more the better, for good you need at least 3 months.
In the diary of transactions, you can upload all your transactions that you opened. This is done again to collect statistics and further analysis.
What I log:
1) The opening date of the transaction before the exact time. This is done in order to find this setup in the future and completely disassemble it in order to identify all errors and inaccuracies.
2) Traded pair. You enter the ticket of the tokens you are trading, it can be Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), I think it's understandable.
3) The side of the position is Long or Short. In the future, you can see why you opened this side here, it might be more accurate to open it in the opposite direction. Accordingly, you can also analyze your mistake.
4) Criteria for entering a trade. This will be the most important aspect of filling out the diary, since here you must clearly describe the criteria without reference to emotions and your needs. The main thing is to describe not what you want to see, but what the chart offers. Do not confuse these concepts, from your far-fetched Wishlist and binding to some kind of opinion, but clearly argue your thoughts regarding this position. Entry criteria can be the best trading tool you use, it can be a trend trade or other factors that you used for analysis.
5) Screenshot of the trade entry. The login screenshot is needed to determine your entry, whether you entered correctly and what were the factors for this entry. After that, this transaction is analyzed by the input and the correctness of the actions.
6) Screenshot of the trade exit. An exit screenshot is necessary to understand the error, why you got a loss and how you can avoid it in the future.
7) The results of the transaction. You just write down what profit / loss you recorded. You can enter % to the deposit and PNL at will. Personally, I only use % of the deposit.
8) Notes after the transaction. Here you should fully describe which notes for the future are worth emphasizing and which you will have to return to for a detailed analysis. Again, write your thoughts without being tied to emotions and the outcome of the transaction.
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✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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How to run your Strategy for automated cryptocurrency tradingTo run TradingView Strategy for real automatic trading at any Cryptocurrency you need:
1. Account at TradingView. (Tradingview.com)
And it can’t be a free “Basic” plan.
You must have any of available Paid packages (Pro, Pro+ or Premium).
Because for automatic trading you need the “Webhook notifications” feature, which is not available in the “Basic” plan.
2. Account at your favorite big Crypto Exchange.
You have to sign up with crypto exchange, and usually pass their verification ("KYC").
Not all exchanges are supported.
But you can use most big "CEX" on the market.
I recommend Binance (with lowest fees), Bybit, OKX, Gate.io, Bitget and some others.
3. Account at special “crypto-trading bot platforms”.
Unfortunately you can’t directly send trade orders from TradingView to Crypto Exchange.
You need an online platform which accepts Alert Notifications from TradingView and then – this platform
will generate pre-programmed trade orders and will send them to a supported Crypto Exchange via API.
There are few such crypto bot platforms which we can use.
I personally have tested 3 of them.
It’s "3commas", "Veles" and "RevenueBot".
All of them have almost the same main function – they allow you to make and run automated DCA crypto bots.
They have little different lists of supported Exchanges, different lists of additional options and features.
But all of them have main feature – they can accept Alert Notifications from TradingView!
3commas is more expensive.
RevenueBot and Veles – have the same low price – they take 20% from your trade Profit, but no more than $50 per month!
So you can easily test them without big expenses.
4. Combine everything into One Automatic System!
Once you have all accounts registered and ready – you can set up all into one system.
You have to:
1. Create on your Crypto Exchange – "API" key which will allow auto trading.
2. Create on the bot platform (3commas, RevenueBot, Veles) – new bot, with pre-programmed trading parameters. (token name, sum,
long/short, stop-loss, take-profit, amount of orders etc)
3. On TradingView configure (optimise) parameters of the strategy you want to use for trading.
4. Once it’s done and backtests show good results – you should create “Alert” on the strategy page.
You have to point this alert to “webhook url” provided to you by the crypto-bot platform (and also enter the needed “message” of the alert).
For each of the bot platforms, you can find the details on how to set them up on their official sites.
If you do not understand it and need help, please contact me.
How to create simple web-hook to send alerts to TelegramHello Traders,
In this video, I have demonstrated how to create a simple web-hook which can send your Tradingview alerts to Telegram channel or group for zero cost.
⬜ Tools Used
▶ Telegram Messenger
▶ Replit - Cloud platform for hosting small programs
▶ Postman - To test web-hooks before going live (Optional)
▶ Cronjob - To set health-check and keep bot alive
⬜ Steps
▶ Create Telegram Bot
Find BotFather and issue command /newbot
Provide bot name
Provide bot username - which should be unique and end with _bot
Once bot is created, you will get a message with token access key in it. Store the token access key.
▶ Prepare Telegram Channel
Create new telegram channel
Add the bot @username_to_id_bot to it as admin and issue /start to find chat id
Store the chat id and dismiss @username_to_id_bot from channel
Find the bot created in previous step using bot username and add it to channel as admin
▶ Setup replit
Create a free Replit account if you do not have it already.
Fork the repl - Tradingview-Telegram-Bot to your space and give a name of your choice.
Set environment variables - TOKEN and CHANNEL which are acquired from previous steps.
Run the REPL
▶ Test with postman
Use the URL on repl and create web-hook post request URL by adding /webhook to it.
Create post request on postman and send it.
You can see that messages sent via postman appearing in your telegram channel.
append ?jsonRequest=true if you are using json output from alerts.
Json request example:
▶ Set alerts from tradingview to web-hook
Use web-hook option and enter the webhook tested from postman in the web-hook URL
And that's all, the webhook for Telegram Alerts is ready!!
Thanks for watching. Hope you enjoyed the video and learned from it :)
PS: I have made use of extracts from the open github repo: github.com
5 red flags: When to change your trading strategy?Trading is a constant balancing act between risk and reward. Developing a successful trading strategy is a significant accomplishment in its own right, but it is equally important to know when it is time to adjust your approach or when to abandon it altogether. To help you stay ahead of the curve, I've identified the 5 telltale red flags that signal it could be time to change your strategy. Whether it's a shift in market conditions or a decline in performance, these red flags are crucial indicators that something needs to change.
Why can live trading results deviate from backtest?
It is not uncommon for live trading results to differ from the results obtained during backtesting. The main reasons for it are:
1. Improper Backtesting Methodology
This is kind of an "umbrella term" for everything that can go wrong while backtesting, but the facts remain: Backtesting requires a robust methodology to provide reliable results. If the methodology is flawed, the results of the backtest may not accurately reflect the strategy's performance. Common issues include overfitting to past data, using insufficient data ( or cherry-picking your data - talk about introducing a bias into your results! ), or not accounting for transaction costs.
2. Overfitting to Past Data
The most common culprit for live trading performance not achieving backtesting expectations is overfitting to past data. Overfitting occurs when a strategy is designed to fit the past performance of a market too closely, leading to a false representation of its potential future performance. Overfitted strategies have beautiful backtesting results but live trading performance fails to deliver even a resemblance of such results. A typical example would be using an overly specific period of any indicator - such as EMA(103).
3. Strategy Not as Robust as Thought
Backtesting can provide a false sense of security, and traders may not fully appreciate the limitations of their strategy until they begin live trading. For example, a strategy that performs well in a trending market environment may not perform well in ranging conditions, or a strategy may be vulnerable to certain market events that were not accounted for during backtesting.
4. Execution Issues
Live trading often involves executing trades in real-time, which can be subject to various challenges that were not present during backtesting. For example, slippage, latency, or data inaccuracies can all affect the performance of a strategy.
5. Market Conditions Have Changed
I almost don't want to add this one to the list, because I worry most people will use this as a scapegoat, and not examine in detail all the previously mentioned reasons, that they actually can influence. But the fact is, the market is dynamic, and conditions can change rapidly. Changes in central bank policy, the introduction of new market participants, shifts in investor sentiment, or changes in economic conditions can all impact a strategy's performance.
You must be aware of these potential issues and take steps to address them. This includes ensuring a robust backtesting methodology, regularly monitoring and adjusting the strategies, and being prepared to adapt to changing market conditions.
What to do if your strategy shows any of these red flags
When you encounter red flags in your trading strategy, it's crucial to take prompt and decisive action. Personally, if my strategy deviates beyond the backtested results in any of the five metrics mentioned below, I immediately stop live trading and switch to paper trading to monitor its performance.
A robust backtesting methodology should provide a reliable indicator of the strategy's performance, and any deviation from the backtested results should be taken as a sign that further examination is needed. I cannot recommend any leniency in this matter ( translation: Every time I did, it was a painful lesson ).
If you're getting to this position often, it suggests that your backtesting methodology is not robust enough. My guess is: you are either overfitting to past data, or introducing any of the dozens of biases that come with backtesting.
The red flags
I picked these red flags because of their importance or ability to provide a signal early on. It's important to note that the following list is possibly subjective. Not everyone will agree with me on this list. Everyone will agree, however, that it is a good reason to stop a strategy from live trading if it has significantly deviated from its backtested results .
Many traders mistakenly believe that an automated strategy is a "set-and-forget" system. It's not. It is crucial to monitor its performance and be prepared to make adjustments or even stop the strategy if necessary. You might monitor different parameters than me, but you need to monitor something. Make sure your hard work of testing and developing a strategy with a positive expectancy doesn't go to waste.
1. Max drawdown
The first and most critical red flag to watch out for is the difference in maximum drawdown between the live trading strategy and its backtested version . Maximum drawdown is a measure of the largest decrease from a peak to a trough in the value of your portfolio balance, expressed as a percentage of the drop from the peak value. Say you started with 100, traded the account up to 150 with a handful of wins, and now you are at 135 after two losses. Your current drawdown is 10%, and as long as your drop from the current peak was not higher until now, this is also your max drawdown.
The drawdown curve as a whole is a crucial indicator to monitor. Its other secondary parameters can provide further insight into the performance of your trading strategy. These include:
The steepness of the drawdown curve - a steep curve indicates a rapid decrease in value caused by a handful of big losses, while a more gradual curve indicates a slower decline - a longer streak of smaller losses.
The number of trades it took to reach the maximum drawdown - a high number of trades indicates a long period of poor performance, while a low number indicates a short period of sizeable losses.
Total recovery time - the length of time it takes to recover from the maximum drawdown can provide insight into the resilience of your strategy. Generally, you want a more resilient strategy with quick recovery.
By monitoring these parameters in addition to the maximum drawdown, you can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the performance of your trading strategy and make informed decisions about any necessary changes.
Side note: To help you gauge the downside risk, calculate your strategy's Ulcer Index .
2. The losing streak length and frequency
A losing streak is a consecutive sequence of trades that result in losses. If the maximum length of the losing streak in live trading exceeds the results obtained during backtesting, it could indicate that the strategy may not be as consistent or reliable as originally believed.
Try to examine how you would feel in these streaks. If, for example, your strategy regularly alternates between wins and losses, you'll probably feel fine. But if you have periods of long winning streaks and then periods of long losing streaks, it could be emotionally hard to handle. You could get an "itchy hand" and try to fiddle with your strategy even if the losing streak should have been expected since it occurred in the backtest.
3. The Recovery time
The total drawdown time can be oversimplified as follows:
Total Drawdown Time = Drawdown Time + Recovery Time
We looked at the Drawdown time already - in the first red flag, so let's examine the recovery time.
The recovery time is the time it takes for the strategy to return to a profitable state from the point of max drawdown.
For the recovery time, I have basically only one rule: It has to be more aggressive, than the drawdown time. I want to see a faster recovery than the drawdown time. This happens when your average win is larger than your average loss. Such behavior I consider healthy, and it only motivates me to look at the drawdown period more closely ( Is there a pattern in the drawdown occurrences? Can I identify them and filter them out somehow? )
4. Win rate
This red flag is self-explanatory. The win rate of your live traded strategy should not be significantly different from the backtested version. However, you need to make sure you have enough data before you make any decisions. And therefore it is not the first actionable indicator that something might have gone awry.
5. The trade duration
The trade duration difference between your strategy's backtested and live traded versions is another vital red flag to look out for. Trade duration refers to the time a trade is kept open, from entry to exit.
If, for example, the trade duration in your backtest was anywhere between 30 min and 4 hours, but in live trading conditions, you observe a handful of trades with a duration of 20 hours. Is that a cause for concern? Does it warrant stopping the strategy?
Consider the reasons behind such deviations, as it could be an early example of changing market conditions, mismatches in trade execution, or other factors. In the above example, if you opened a trade at the end of the New York session and closed in the London session, maybe the Asian countries had a national holiday and therefore left markets completely illiquid, but the strategy did what was expected.
It is also a good idea to look at the distribution of trades in time. For example, if your backtesting was calibrated to trade during the London and New York sessions, but the live trading strategy generates the majority of trades during the Asian session, this could be a sign of discrepancies that might need to be addressed.
Conclusion
Knowing when to stop a strategy from live trading is integral to the day trading process. By closely monitoring key metrics and values, and comparing them to the results of your backtesting, you can make an informed decision about whether to continue using a strategy, invest time in improving it, or stop it altogether and look for a better one. And whether you monitor the same indicators or develop your own, as long as you regularly check in on your strategy's results, you are on your way to improving your chances of achieving long-term profitability.
I wish you all the best in your trading journey!
An updated version of my limit order strategyIt's been a while since I've posted anything here. I mostly don't hang out on tradingview anymore, but still check in every now and again.
Anyway, if you're reading this, you're probably familiar with my old limit order breakout-retest strategy, where you're pricing the market on breakouts and collecting profits on retests. I've updated this for reliability, but it is more difficult to execute now so you'll have to pay attention and spend a good amount of time testing this for yourself on a demo account.
The method is simple (to me at least):
1) With limit orders, you're attempting to go with the direction of the trend. This means that in an uptrend, you're going to find the breakout point of the current move and the swing low from the previous move.
2) From the breakout point to the latest high, you're going to either eyeball a 50% retracement level, or draw a chart for it (will show this below), and then you're going to be placing tiny limit orders going all the way from that 50% retracement down to the swing low of the previous move. You're going to price the market in a wide area this way. You will likely require a script or a bot to do this, as it's slow with inconsistent spacing if you do it by hand.
3) You're going to have a hedge stop instead of a stop loss, at the swing low of the previous move. This is where it gets dangerous and will require practice.
The hedge stop will be a stop order with a position size equal to all of your limits combined.
I said kind of a lot in all those pics, but I hope I got the message across. :D
Make sure you get yourself a script or bot of some sort to deploy those limit orders. If you do it by hand, you'll likely have less of them (which is fine), but always understand your risk before the play is made. On metatrader, I use a "Lines profit loss" indicator to show me the accumulated total of all of my trades. I can drag the line along the screen to see what my P&L will be if price reaches x point. You should get something like this too, or commission it if your platform doesn't have it. Understanding risk numbers is very important for this strategy.
Anyway. I hope this helps someone!
Manipulation strategyWe all know that markets are highly manipulated and the traders have to look for a signs of manipulation.
There are a lot of types of manipulation - imbalance, candle without wick, liquidity grab and so on. On the chart I marked few areas, where price was manipulated and reversed.
The strategy shows you how to recognise the manipulation patterns. It is based on smart money concept, but it is more focused on the liquidity grab and the low liquidity moves.
So for example:
On this chart I marked areas, where price created low liquidity moves and the results are strong movements on the manipulated direction.
Why these examples are low liquidity moves?
Because price cleared a lot of stop losses and inject fresh money in the market. The banks do not invest into the markets, they generate money in order to profit.
In the first rectangle (lower one) - price created triple bottom - this is a major reversal retail pattern and created major liquidity pool, but look closer. Creating the pattern, price also took out lot of liquidity and moved away.
In the second rectangle (the wedge) - price also created low liquidity move, because every time it gave strong signs of reversal tricking the traders to sell or buy and then took them out.
Rule : In order price to move in one direction the institutions must buy or sell. To accumulate orders they should inject money in the market. The injections are liquidity grab in many ways and types.
The markets can not move always with low liquidity moves and always stay in efficiency. The liquidity must to be created first, so that traders can come into the market and later to be taken out.
As every strategy the "Manipulation strategy" sometimes give us false signals, but it is most accurate strategy.
For example in consolidation we may see many false signals, but this is not because the strategy failed, it is because price was manipulated constantly.
This is not smart money concept. The strategy is not focused on order blocks and breaker blocks, it is focused on low liquidity moves.
The manipulation areas are also the true support and resistance, because when the banks buy or sell from the specific level, they will protect this level, if it is not targeted.
Markets moves up and down, taking the buy side and sell side liquidity, this is the way that swings are formed. They are not forming based on retail support and resistance or Fibonacci numbers.
How to use:
1) Calculate the liquidity - look for retail pattern - double top/bottom, previous high or low, support or resistance or every other obvious buy/sell zone.
2) Wait price to clear the level - liquidity grab.
3) Wait until price form low liquidity move(pattern).
4) Buy/Sell to the opposite liquidity pool.
Become a Better Trader with Bar ReplayIf you're a trader, you know that success in the market requires both skill and experience. But what if you could gain experience without risking your hard-earned cash? That's where TradingView's Bar Replay feature comes in. It's a powerful tool that allows traders to improve their skills by replaying historical market data in a risk-free environment.
Bar Replay is like having a time machine for the market. With this feature, you can select any historical date and time and replay the market data as if you were trading in real-time. As the market moves, you can test out different strategies, analyze your performance, and make adjustments to your approach. And the best part? You won't lose any money if you make a mistake!
So, how can you use Bar Replay to improve your trading skills? Let's take a look at some tips:
Identify your weaknesses: One of the best ways to improve your trading skills is to identify your weaknesses. When replaying market data, pay close attention to the trades that didn't go your way. Ask yourself why they failed and what you could have done differently.
Fine-tune your strategy: Once you've identified your weaknesses, it's time to fine-tune your strategy. Test out different approaches and see how they perform in the historical data. Adjust your approach until you find one that consistently generates positive results.
Develop a routine: Trading can be stressful, and it's easy to make impulsive decisions. By developing a routine and sticking to it, you can reduce stress and improve your decision-making. Use Bar Replay to practice your routine and make it a habit.
Practice risk management: Risk management is crucial to successful trading. Use Bar Replay to test out different risk management approaches and see how they perform over time. By finding the right balance between risk and reward, you can improve your profitability.
In conclusion, TradingView's Bar Replay feature is a powerful tool for traders who want to improve their skills. By identifying weaknesses, fine-tuning your strategy, developing a routine, and practicing risk management, you can take your trading to the next level. So, fire up Bar Replay and start improving your skills today!
Smart Money Concept - TerminologyToday i would like to share full list of basic terminology Smart Money Concept
To all newbies this list will be useful
HH (Higher High) - high maximum
HL (Higher Low) - high low
LH (Lower High) - low high
LL (Lower Low) - low minimum
Fib (Fibonacci)
PDH is the high of the previous day.
PDL is the low of the previous day.
PWH is the high of the previous week.
PWL is the low of the previous week.
DO - opening of the day.
WO - opening of the week.
MO is the opening of the month.
YO - discovery of the year.
TF (TF) – timeframe
MN (Monthly) - monthly
W (Weekly) - weekly
D (Daily) - daily
H4 (4 hours) - 4 hours
H1 (1 hour)
M15 (15 minute) - 15 minutes
M1 (1 minute)
MS (Market Structure) - market structure
BOS (Break of Structure)
MOM (Momentum) - momentum. Time difference between impulse and corrective wave
HTF (Higher Time Frame)
LTF (Lower Time Frame) – lower timeframe
RSP (Real Structure Point) - key structural point
PRZ (Price Reversal Zone) – price reversal zone
CPB (Complex Pullback)
RR (Risk:Reward) – risk/reward
TGT (Target)
SL (Stop-loss) - stop order
BE (Breakeven) - breakeven
PA (Price Action) - price movement
Liq (Liquidity) – liquidity
EQH (Equal Highs) - equal highs
EQL (Equal Lows) - equal lows
SMC (Smart Money Concept) - the concept of smart money
DD (Drawdown) - drawdown
Be (Bearish) – bearish trend
Bu (Bullish) – bullish trend
HNS (Head and Shoulders) - head and shoulders
IT (Institutional Traders) - institutional traders
CO (Composite Operators) - composite operators
WHB (Weak Handed Buyers) - Weak Buyers
WHS (Weak Handed Sellers) - Weak Sellers
DP or POI (Decision Point) or (Point of Interest) - decision point or point of interest
IMB (Imbalance) - imbalance
SHC (Stop Hunt Candle)
OB (Order Block) - block of orders
OBIM (Order Block with Imbalance) - a block of orders with an imbalance
OBOB (Lower timeframe Order Block with a higher timeframe Order Block) – LTF order block in the HTF order block zone
WKF (Wyckoff)
PS (Preliminary Support) - preliminary support
PSY (Preliminary Supply) - preliminary offer
SC (Selling Climax) - Selling Climax
AR (Automatic Rally) - automatic rally
ST(Secondary Test) - secondary test
SPR (Spring) - the final position by a major player, followed by the liquidation of the last players in the market
Test (Test)
SOS (Sign of Strength) - a sign of strength
SOW (Sign of Weakness) - a sign of weakness
LPS (Last Point of Support/Supply)
LPSY (Last Point of Supply) - the last point of the offer
BU (Back-up) - price return to the range to cover the imbalance
JAC (Jump across the creek) is another name for SOS
UT (Upthrust) - the primary move out of the range to capture liquidity
TR (Trading Range) – trading range
WAS (Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic)
WDS (Wyckoff Distribution Schematic)
WICK - a candle with a long shadow, which removes liquidity, stops.
A squeeze is a rapid rise or fall in prices.
Range - sideways price movement in a certain period without updating highs and lows.
Deviation (deviation) - a false exit, beyond the boundaries of the range.
EQ - (equlibrium) - the middle of the range.
TBX is the entry point.
Take Profit - take profit.
STB - sweep (manipulation) of liquidity, the sale of an asset before growth.
BTS - sweep (manipulation) of liquidity, the purchase of an asset before the fall.
AMD (accumulation manipulation distribution) - accumulation, manipulation, distribution ( distribution)
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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E-Book Gift + TRADABLE VS NON-TRADABLE ORDER BLOCKSABBREVIATIONS & DEFINATIONS
ORDER BLOCK
OB is a Down/Up Candle at/near Support or Resistance before the move Up/Down, respectively.
Down Candle is a Bearish Candle
Up Candle is a Bullish Candle
Bullish Order Block is Down candle at/near Support level, before the move up
Bearish Order Block is Up Candle at/near the Resistance level, before the move down
IMBALANCE
This is Insufficient Trading in the market. Sometimes called Liquidity Void .
When there is insufficient trading in the market, the price often comes back to fill out the orders
that were left.
Imbalance is created by 2-3 or more Extended Range Candles
ERC candle often closes at 80% of the candle range
Assumptions;
When the Market Maker want to move price up at a certain level, it is assumed that, there should
be enough sell orders to pair their buy orders with (this is how they make profit).
So, when the MM moves away from a given level with strength and magnitude, leaving behind a LV
(IMB), we can use this to assume that sell orders that were available at that level were not enough to pair
with their Buy Orders.
Therefore, the MM will, often, come back at this level for mitigation
MITIGATION
Mitigation means; to reduce risk.
When the MM moves price away from a level with strength and magnitude, say they are buying; it is
assumed that this is used to entice retail traders to join the move.
And because most retail traders are price chasers, they join the ride with their Stop Loses set. This is
the reason (assumed) that the MM will come back to clear retail traders SL. When their (Retail Traders)
SL are hit, they are knocked out of the move, hence MM mitigating their risk (THEY WILL RESUME
THE INITIAL TREND HENCE MOVING ALONE).
you can download that E-book from below URL
Learn Why Most of the Traders Fail
The evidence suggests that only a very small proportion of day traders makes money year over year.
There are certain patterns which may separate profitable traders from those who ultimately lose money. And indeed, there is one particular mistake that in our experience gets repeated time and time again. What is the single most important mistake that led to traders losing money?
Here is a hint – it has to do with how we as humans relate to winning and losing.
Our own human psychology makes it difficult to navigate financial markets, which are filled with uncertainty and risk, and as a result the most common mistakes traders make have to do with poor risk management strategies.
Traders are often correct on the direction of a market, but where the problem lies is in how much profit is made when they are right versus how much they lose when wrong.
Bottom line, traders tend to make less on winning trades than they lose on losing trades.
Humans aren’t machines, and working against our natural biases requires effort. Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading.
That will help you to be a consistently profitable trader.
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The 5 Outcomes Of a Trade | How not to blow your account
Successful traders know there are 5 outcomes that can come out of a trading position. When managed well these outcomes can lead to great success. However, when manage badly can cause disaster to a trader’s account.
Below I’ll highlight and discuss the possible 5 outcomes of a trade and how you can manage them.
1. Small Profit
This is when a position ends in a very small profit, for trend traders, this is usually the case. However, in this situation, there is no loss.
2. Small Loss
This is when you lose a small amount at the close of your position. This is part of normal and good trading. In fact, you should cut your losses early. Taking small losses or cutting your losses early will help you stay in this business long term.
3. Breakeven
This is a position where you really didn’t make or lose any money. They’ll come too, they are not necessarily bad trades. These types of trades may just mean you should find re-entry to the position or may just be a quick exit without a loss or profit.
4. Big Profit
This is when a position ends in a very big profit. This type of trade does not come too often but when they do come they are the trades that move your general account return for the period to the next level. As a trader, these are the type of trades you should look forward to.
5. Big Loss
This is when a position ends up closing at a very big loss. This type of trade should never happen on your trading account as a pro-trader. This is the type of trade that can blow your trading account. It’s why you should know how to cut your losses quickly and take a small loss.
I’m glad I’ve been able to share with you the possible outcomes of a trade and how you can manage them properly. A simple knowledge like this can suddenly turn your trading account to become profitable.
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
Factor Forex Spread into Trades: A Guide to Bid & Ask PricesHave you ever found yourself in a situation where trade was closed out before reaching your intended stop loss level, or where the market reaches your profit target but the trade never closes in your favour?
It can be frustrating and confusing, leaving you wondering what went wrong. You may even start to blame your broker or the market itself, thinking they are conspiring against you. But the truth is, it's not the market or your broker - it's you.
The key issue is that you're not taking the market spread into account when setting your trade levels. A professional trader must always factor in the spread to avoid inconsistencies and mishaps in their trades. In this post, we will discuss the difference between the BID and ASK price, understand what the market spread is and show you how to factor it into your trade levels for a smoother and more successful trading experience.
As a professional trader, it is crucial to understand the BID and ASK prices. Failure to do so can result in costly mistakes when setting up trades. When placing a trade, these two prices are crucial to consider.
The BID Price
The BID price is something that every trader should have a good understanding of.
The BID price is the price that is displayed on the charts, for example, if the USD/JPY pair was displaying 110.00 on your chart, then the BID price is 110.00.
The BID price is the price that you deal with every time you press the sell button. This is because it is the price at which your broker is willing to purchase the currency from you. In other words, you are selling the currency to your broker at the BID price.
The ASK Price
The ASK price can be a little more complex, as it is often the cause of unexpected outcomes in trade orders.
Typically, you do not see the ASK price when you have your charts open, it is only visible when you open your trade order window or enable that option in your trading software.
The ASK price is the price at which your broker is willing to sell you the currency, and it is a completely different price than what you see on the charts. The ASK price is what you deal with every time the BUY button is pressed and it is typically more expensive than the BID price you are viewing on the chart.
Therefore, the ASK price is the price your broker is "asking" for to sell the currency. The BID price may be 1.45000 on the charts but your broker's ASK price may be something like 1.45030. This is where the concept of calculated Forex spread comes into play.
How to Incorporate Spread into Trade Planning
When placing trade orders, it is important to remember two key principles. These principles must be applied every time you enter and exit a trade, so it is essential to memorize them or keep them in a visible place for reference.
~ When going long, the market is entered at the ASK price and exited at the BID price.
~ When going short, the market is entered at the BID price and exited at the ASK price.
For instance, let's say you want to set a pending order to go long when USD/CAD reaches 1.30000 on the chart, you don’t simply place the pending order entry price at 1.30000. Remember the rule for long trades, you ‘enter the market at the ASK price because the ASK price is what your broker is willing to sell you the currency for. Whenever you are the buyer – the ASK price is quoted.
If your broker's spread is roughly 2 pips for USD/CAD, when the market reaches 1.30000 your broker will be "asking" for 1.30020.
So when the price on the chart reaches 1.30000 (this is the BID price), your broker will be willing to sell the currency for 1.30020 (when the spread is 2 pips).
Therefore, if you place your pending order with an entry price of 1.30000, your trade will not be triggered because your broker is not willing to sell you the currency for that price at that point in time. In this case, you would have to wait for the BID price to reach 1.29980, at which point the broker's ASK price would be 1.30000 and your trade will be filled.
In order to ensure that the trade is triggered when the BID price reaches 1.30000, you must factor in the market spread and set your entry order at 1.30020.
Determining Stop Loss and Exit Prices for Long Positions
Determining stop loss and exit levels for long positions is made relatively simple by utilizing the BID price. The BID price, which is the price at which your broker is willing to buy the currency back from you, reflects the prices that are commonly obtainable from the Interbank Market.
When exiting a trade, the currency is sold back to the broker at the BID price. The BID price is the one that is visible on the charts, and there is no additional commission to be taken into account. Therefore, stop and target levels can be set directly off the BID prices displayed on the charts, making the process straightforward.
Setting Up Short Trades
When executing short trades, the process is reversed. Short trades are entered at the BID price, so the price displayed on the chart is used for the short entry order.
However, the stop loss and target prices for short trades must take into account the Forex spread, as the trade will be exited at the ASK price, which is typically higher than the BID price due to the broker's commission.
To ensure that stop loss levels are not triggered prematurely, the Forex spread must be calculated and added to the stop loss value. This will allow the trade to move freely to its stop-loss level before being closed.
Additionally, the Forex spread must also be factored in for the target price levels of short trades. The target price should be found on the chart, the spread added, and that value should be used as the target price level for every short trade order.
By following the proper procedures for calculating and factoring in the Forex spread, you can now confidently place trade orders and enter the Forex market in an effective manner. This will prevent frustration and disappointment by ensuring that pending orders are executed correctly and that trades exit at the intended price levels.
Learn Risk to Reward Ratio | Forex Trading Basics
Hey traders,
Planning your every trade, you should know in advance the profit that you are aiming to make and the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose.
In this educational article, we will discuss risk reward ratio - the tool that is used to compare your potentials losses and profits.
Let's start with an example. Imagine you see a good buying opportunity on EURUSD. You quickly identify a safe entry point, your take profit level and stop loss.
From that trade you are aiming to make 100 pips with a maximum allowable loss of 50 pips.
To calculate a risk to reward ratio for this trade, you simply should divide a potential gain by a potential loss:
R/R ratio = 100 / 50 = 2
In that particular example, risk to reward ratio equals 2 meaning that potential gain outperform a potential loss by 2.
Let's take another example.
This time, you decide to short USDJPY.
From a desirable entry point, you can get 75 pips with a potential loss of 150 pips.
Risk to reward ratio for this trade is 75 divided by 150 or 0.5.
Such a ratio means that potential loss outperform a potential gain by 2.
Risk to reward ratio can be positive or negative.
If the ratio is bigger than 1 it is considered to be positive meaning that a potential gain outperforms a potential loss.
If the ratio is less than 1, it is called negative so that potential loss is bigger than potential risk.
Knowing the average risk to reward ratio for your trades, you can objectively calculate the required win rate for keeping a positive trading performance.
With R/R ratio = 0.5
2 winning trades recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 70% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
With R/R ratio = 1
1 winning trade, recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 50% win rate to compensate your losses.
With R/R ratio = 2
1 winning trade recovers 2 losing trades.
You need at least 35% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
Trading involves extremely high risk. Risk to reward ratio is a number one risk management tool for limiting your risks. Calculating that and knowing your win rate, you can objectively decide whether a trade that you are planning to take is worth taking.
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Bitcoin Dominance Explained. When to buy Alts? BTC domination: how to use it? And when to buy Altcoins?
Today we will talk about Bitcoin Dominance.
What is bitcoin dominance? Why is needed? And why exactly Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the first and the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Altcoin is any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin.
Dominance (BTC.D) displays the relationship between the direction of movement of different cryptocurrencies. To find this index you just need open TradingView and type BTC.D
There are quite a lot of indexes known to you in the world, the most famous of them are:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P 500
RTS
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of its market capitalization to all other cryptocurrencies.
However, we cannot trade this index.
Pure math: if the capital invested in bitcoin decreases, then part of the funds goes into altcoins.
BTC.D gives an understanding of the general direction of the market at the moment and helps to determine when alt pairs are correlated with the first cryptocurrency.
However, the dominance of Bitcoin is declining as new cryptocurrencies emerge.
Why? Because the capitalization of the alts is increasing much faster than the capitalization of bitcoin.
Bitcoin dominance often depends on the altcoin season
Altseason is a period during which altcoins gain a significant market share relative to Bitcoin, thus reducing the dominance of Bitcoin.
Note, however, that Bitcoin dominance does not always depend on the phase of the market.
What does it mean?
This means that if bitcoin falls in price, and with it the alts, then the dominance of bitcoin will remain approximately at the same level.
I prepared this cheat list by which you can determine the further movement of alts, depending on the Dominance of Bitcoin
You can always use it! Bitcoin dominance also can be used even on lower timeframes but it’s not a magic pill and you should understand some alts follow more btc some less. Thats why you can see situations when bitcoin going down and some alts with low cap can pump 100% in a few days.
Bitcoin dominance is just a tool that can give us more information about the state of the current market, and its possible future. On the Bitcoin Dominance chart, technical analysis works well, its help you to try predict the movement of the Bitcoin price relative to other alts.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
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🟢Support🟢 & 🔴Resistance🔴 in TradingView Land !!!👨🏫Hello, guys🤪; I'm Pejman, and today we will change the regular TradingView to TradingView Disneyland🎡 . I want to tell the story of Snow White and the trader dwarfs.
Once upon a time🌞, in the kingdom👑 of Stocktopia, there was a young princess👰♂️ named Snow White Charts. She was the heir to the realm of Stocktopia. Still, unlike her father, the King of Stocktopia, a successful businessman🧔, Princess needed help understanding the stock market. She often lost money💸.
One day, while walking in the forest🌿🌲, Princess Snow White Charts stumbled upon an old house called Dwarf traders. She became curious and decided to visit this house🏠.
Dwarves lived in this house🏠 whose job was to help the traders. They directed the price of different stocks by creating support and resistance lines or zones, and each dwarf was responsible for one of them.
The Princess did not know anything about these lines. So she decided to stay to learn about these powerful lines.
One of these dwarves, named Doc, looked older and wiser than the other dwarves. The Princess enlisted the help of Doc to learn how these lines worked.
Doc was proficient in various methods of technical analysis and had an exceptional talent for simplifying complex issues😝. So he tried to teach these lines to the Princess👰♂️ in the simplest and best way possible.
If you also want to master technical analysis like Doc before learning support and resistance lines/zones, read the following post to learn what technical analysis is. 🤓👇
Doc showed the following picture to the Princess.
Can you tell what the role of support lines is before reading Doc's explanation❓👇
As you can see in the picture, the candles are placed in a downward trend, and they go down🔴 like playful children🧒🧒 playing on the slide.
Doc explained that support lines are like a bouncy castle🕍 for price. When the candles reach these Lines, they'll push them up just like a trampoline; the price will grow.
Remember that they prevent the price from moving too far down or falling.😅 The candles are safe on the support lines, so Sleepy sleeps peacefully.
Doc believes that when a stock's price hits support lines, it can indicate a potential buying opportunity. Still, when it breaks down🔴 the support line, it can show a possible selling opportunity; but I will discuss this in the following.
Now you may ask, what are resistance lines❓ The exact same question came up for Princess Snow White Charts😁.
First, look at the chart below.👇
Resistance lines are like the roof of a bouncy castle. In an uptrend🟢, when the candles are happy and constantly jumping higher and higher, the resistance lines prevent them from going further.
The resistance line is guarded by Goupy, who pushes the candles down🔴 like a bully, whenever the candles hit the resistance line.
Let's suppose all these price lines & dwarfs want to lead candles in a particular direction.
Now that you are familiar with support and resistance lines, you might have the same question as Princess👰♂️had again. How to recognize and find these lines❓
According to Doc, there are several ways to find these lines:
Past Price Data:
Sir John says: "Price data is like a roadmap, showing you where the market has been and where it might be heading."
Looking at past price data is like checking the tracks of a criminal. It may be seen, but it is simply not correct. You can know how he behaved in the past because he may repeat the same behavior in the future.
So, to better understand the price, you must also know its past. Even Philip Fisher also believes that: "Price data is the lens through which we can see the market's true nature."
Previous Lines:
By finding previous support and resistance lines, it's as if you've found a criminal's 🔫 recorded files.
Price data is the story of the market, and those who ignore it are doomed to repeat their mistakes. You can't predict the future without understanding the past, and the market's past performance is the best indicator of its future performance.
Wow, speak of the devil🤐, I forgot that indicators also have important points to say too.
Indicators:
Maybe price data is like a roadmap🚨 or past lines like a criminal recorded file. But indicators are like GPS.
Indicators are the GPS of the financial markets, and they guide us to our destination and help us avoid getting lost.
Indicators are the financial markets' fingerprints, revealing the underlying patterns and trends.
Doc and I found some indicators helpful in identifying supply(resistance) and demand(support) zones, such as:
Moving Average/Parabolic SAR/Bollinger Bands/Ichimoku Kinko Hyo/Fibonacci/Pivot point
There are many ways to recognize these lines and even indicators that help you find them like an assistant, but you should still try to know and learn them yourself.
For example, Doc says there are additional support and resistance lines. Like the slides in the game, they can be straight or sloping, going up🟢 or down🔴. I'm kidding, but they really have these types 🙂.
In the previous pictures, I showed you only static lines. Now, look at the pictures below because I will show you all the types of these lines with examples.
For example, if the support and resistance lines are like a road🛣 on the ground, they are called static support and resistance lines .
Now, what if this road turns into steep ropes❓ Well, it is known that they are called dynamic support and resistance lines .
For example, if you want to go mountain🗻 climbing, it is as if you are climbing with dynamic support. In general, in an upward🟢 trend, dynamic support lines like a ramp🚧 prevent the price from falling.
Now that we are talking about climbing let's introduce another game🎲. The zipline🤐😄.
The price decreases from the dynamic resistance lines like a zipline in downward🔴 trends. 😄
I must say that theoretically, the price will go down after hitting the dynamic resistance lines and these lines prevent price growth🟢.
Dynamic resistance or support is also called a trend line. Trendlines are helpful in many parts of technical analysis, such as classical patterns.
Just take a look at the below post. You will find that trend lines help us effectively identify these patterns or trade with them. That's how I am! COOL!😎😎.👇
Don't worry and don't rush because, as said: Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.
Soon I will teach all these patterns in future posts, but we have to go step by step together.😎😎😎
But I must add that the price is also very playful😛. The price may cross these lines, be above the resistance or below the support, and escape from them.
"If price can make a credible breakout, this could be a good place to trade and make some sweet dollars," Doc whispered to Princess Snow White Charts.
What is a valid breakout❗️❓
This was the question that arose in the Princess's 👰 mind, and I think it is your question as well.
Imagine that the resistance line is like a prison that confines the candles. A diligent & playful candle needs the support of buyers to escape from this prison. If the buyers support it, it can get out of this prison.
After escaping the breakout candle, if another candle, called the confirmation, escapes from this prison and jumps above the breakout candle, the way will be clear for other prisoners, and they can run. So a valid breakout will happen.
A valid breakout is created with a strong candle called a breakout candle(such as the Marubozu candle); after that, a candle as a confirmation candle will confirm this breakout.
Don't worry about selling below the Support line or buying above the resistance line. If a valid breakout has occurred, the target stock will decrease/rise further, and the trend will not stop or end anytime soon.
Let's walk through an example of a valid breakout with Doc.
As you can see, the price broke this line with a strong candle and made a confirmation candle. As a result, we consider this a valid breakout.
If you have noticed, finally, the price went back to this line to greet the previous line. This movement is called Pullback .
In general, to say that a breakout is valid, there are several conditions:
Preferably, the breakout candle and the confirmation candle are the same color.
The point where the breakout candle closes must be above resistance or below support.
The breakout must have happened with the body of a candle, not with the candle's shadow.
Even the closing point of the confirmation candle should be above the resistance breakout candle or below the support breakout candle.
But I should mention that the trading volume increases when a valid breakout occurs.
Now that you know a valid breakout, we can also check an invalid breakout, so dive down🔴 to the chart below.
As you can see, the price tries to be playful😜😜 and break the support line. But there are no buyers to support the price for this movement, so this breakout will be temporary and short-lived.
The price will soon return below the Support line. The invalid breakouts are sometimes known as bull traps or bear traps which I will explain in future posts.
I advise you to only sometimes look for a straight line for support or resistance.
I use support and resistance lines in my analysis to draw trend lines. But when I want to determine the support and resistance of a currency, I draw them as support and resistance zones.
Using zones makes you no longer involved in each line's small & fake breaks, and you won't make mistakes with each break.
Now that you have learned almost everything about these lines😎😎, it's time to start fishing and apply these tips to real trades.
I have considered all the necessary items for trading with these lines in the chart below. You might understand the reason for trading by looking at the picture before reading the description.
( The First Method )
The picture shows the price below this resistance zone, and they tried to escape several times.
Still, finally, when the trading volume and the number of buyers increased, it could cross its resistance zone with a strong candle(breakout candle), and then the confirmation candle formed.
Now, as traders, we should place our Entry Point(EP) slightly higher than the confirmation candle. And also, be careful;😱 maybe this break is invalid, or it returns below its resistance. So we place our Stop Loss(SL) a little lower than the breakout candle.
Now, look at this chart again. But I am going to teach you another method for trading.
( The Second Method )
You should only sometimes enter into a position at one point.
For example, when the price returns to its resistance to greet(Pullback), it's a good time to divide your money into two parts & re-enter the position.
With this, your average Entry Point will be lower, and the Risk/Reward(RR) ratio will increase.
( I know that the Risk/Reward(RR) is something that some of you are unfamiliar with, so don't worry cause I'm going to talk about it in future posts.)
There is another way to trade with these lines.
(The Third Method)
You've got another way to trade with two Entry Points. You can enter the position when the pullback accrues; the other entry point is a little higher than the highest price before the pullback.
In this method, you will be more confident about the position, but at the same time, the Risk/Reward (RR) is decreased compared to the previously mentioned methods. The Stop Loss is the same as the others.
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Prince Snow White Charts learned all these tricks along with Doc and the other Dwarves.
Excited to try this new knowledge, he immediately returned to Stocktopia😊and applied what he had learned to his trading. To his surprise, his trades became more profitable.
The king was pleased with his daughter's improvement, & these lessons were taught to all the traders in the kingdom👑 of Stocktopia.
From that day, Stocktopia was known as the kingdom with the most successful traders, thanks to the wisdom of Doc and Princess Snow White Charts.😊😊
Stocktopia's traders lived happily ever after, thanks to the protection and guidance provided by the Seven Dwarfs of Support.😇😇
I hope you enjoyed this story and use support and resistance lines/zones in your trading. But never forget that before using any new method, try it several times to master that method.😎😎😎.
Now let's leave the world of stories and return to the real world of traders. Take advantage of the following posts.
In the end, I wish you health and success.