Get started

Trading Tools

THE ART OF MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS AND MULTIPLE CONFLUENCESHey, wizards, hope you are all having a great week so far! We would like to welcome all of you on another educational post, the topic of which is Multi-Timeframe analysis and multiple confluneces involved. As it can be inferred, the Monthly and Weekly timeframes are used to determine the direction of the market, the Daily timeframe is used to identify key areas and important zones, and finally, the 4-hourly timeframe is utilized for entering trades. Now, let’s dig deeper into it and analyze the situation that we have on EUR/USD. MONTHLY: Observing the weekly timeframe graph, we can say that the price has been printing bearish candles for a few consecutive weeks. As one of the main trading principles says, after a strong impulsive move, a correction is needed. We can witness some bearish weakening signs and therefore we are looking for a short-term long position. Our possible target would be set at a previous level of support turned resistance, which aligns with the golden Fibonacci zone. WEEKLY: Leveling down to the weekly timeframe chart, we can see that the price is consolidating, as it is unable to push lower. Technically, after long lasting consolidations, it is believed that the price will either fly like a rocket or drop like a needle. This gives us another confluence and backs up our plan. DAILY: Moving down to the daily timeframe graphic, we can notice that the previous candle was super bullish and some kind of an ascending triangle is being formed. If the price breaks and retests the upper boundary of the formed triangle, we can see some nice bullish moves. 4H: Last but not least, the 4-hourly timeframe a.k.a. the timeframe of entries. After a massive bullish push to the upside yesterday, the price has started correcting before further bullish moves happen. Here, we are using two entry confluences: the area of previously broken structure that nicely aligns with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. Before entering the trade, we will carefully monitor the price action and wait for the price to bounce off the local zone. We are hoping that this educational post will be of value for you and we are wishing you all a great day! Regards, Investroy Team
Education
by Investroy
26
Study the Logic Behind Price Patterns, Not by Memorizing!Hi Traders, I won't be doing any particular market breakdown today as I don't see any great opportunity around. But here's some gems to share. In the previous few analysis, I've been talking about the potential failures on UJ everytime price attempt to break above 115. If you've not watched the previous UJ analysis OR in case if you couldn't find it, I'll link it down below for your convenience, make sure you watch it. In my market breakdown videos, I often talk about continuation pattern. In yesterday's UJ breakdown, this was exactly what I was talking about, a continuation pattern. Price had a strong drive/ momentum into one direction (in this case bearish momentum), formed a tight consolidation giving us more information that sellers are attempting to squeeze price lower. This kind of flag-type pattern simply tells you how one side is bullying the opposition, eventually leads to further continuation into the initial direction. For whatever instruments you're trading, it'd still fall back to Price Action. Understanding the psychology behind candlestick movement is what's going to make you profits, not by blindly memorizing strategies or patterns. See you tomorrow for more breakdowns! Trade safe and manage your risk!
Education
by TraderNeoh
Trading strategies, Part 1: First stepsWelcome to a series of videos called Trading Strategies. In the next couple of weeks, we'll talk about different strategies one can use to maximize gains: Market psychology, trading tools, trading styles, technical analysis. Today, the first steps: 1- Defining who you are: Are you an investor or a trader 2- Educating yourself: Knowledge is the best tool someone can have on the market 3- You can't win all the time 4- Don't be greedy Stay tuned for more content
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by KairoiCapital
1
How To Calculate Risk/Reward To Trade & Invest In Crypto MarketHi everyone: Today I want to make this educational video on how to calculate your risk/reward in trading and investing in the cryptocurrency market. Many newcomers in the industry are not aware of the importance of risk management. So today let's give out different examples of them on how to properly calculate the $, %, and setting the SL/TP. This video is intended to help traders and investors to understand how to calculate the amount to risk per trade, or per investment purpose. I will give different examples of going long and short in trading, as well as buying coins for the purpose of investment. Doesn't matter what crypto broker exchange you use, this calculation/formula will work, you will just need to do some simple math to get to the right numbers. Example 1: Want to go long on BTC in a trade Scenario: Trading Account $12,000 Risk 1% of your trading account Want to go long on BTC when price hits $70,000 You want the Stop Loss @$66,000, and a TP @ $80,000 Calculation: Calculate your 1% of the trading account: $12,000 Account x 0.01 $120 per trade Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL amount $120 / $4000 = 0.03 Set your entry order or market order for 0.03 BTC @ $70,000 price 0.03 x $70,000 = $2,100 (This is the amount you will need in your trading account to execute this position. If you have leverage then its less $ needed) Set your SL at $66,000 If price hits your SL, your order would be 0.03 BTC x $66,000 = $1,980 $2,100 - 1,980 = $120 = 1% of your account Set your TP at $80,000 If price hits your TP, your order would be 0.03 BTC x $80,000 = $2,400 $2,400 - $2,100 = $300 = 2.5% of your account Example 2: Want to go long on ADA in a trade Scenario: Trading Account $800 Risk 1% of your trading account Want to go long on ADA when price hits $2.30 You want the Stop Loss @1.70 Calculation: Calculate your 1% of the trading account: $800 Account x 0.01 = $8 per trade Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL $8 / $0.60 = 13.34 Set your entry order or market order for 13.34 ADA @ 2.30 price 13.34 x 2.30 = $30.68 (This is the amount you will need in your trading account to execute this position. If you have leverage then its less $ needed) Set your SL at $1.70 If price hits your SL, your order would be 13.34 ADA x $1.70 = $22.68 $30.68 - $22.68 = $8 = 1% of your account Set your TP at $4.00 If price hits your TP, your order would be 13.34 ADA x $4.00 = $53.36 $53.36 - $30.68 = $22.68 = 2.83% of your account Example 3: Want to go short on TRX in a trade Scenario: Trading Account $54,000 Risk 1.5% of your trading account Want to go short on TRX when price hits $0.11 You want the Stop Loss @ $0.13 Calculation: Calculate your 1.5% of the trading account: $54,000 Account x 0.0150 = $810 per trade Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL $810 / $0.02 = 40,500 Set your entry order or market order for 40,500 TRX @ 0.11 price 40,500 x 0.11 = $4,455 (This is the amount you will need in your trading account to execute this position. If you have leverage then its less $ needed) Set your SL at $0.13 If price hits your SL, your order would be 40,500 TRX x $0.13 = 5,265 $5265 - $4455 = $810 = 1.5% of your account Set your TP at $0.07 If price hits your TP, your order would be 40,500 TRX x $0.07 = $2,835 $4,455 - $2,835 = $1,620 = 2% of your account Example 4: Want to buy ETH to hold for long term as investment Scenario: Investing Account $20,000 Risk 10% of your investing account Want to buy ETH to hold for long terms Want to enter when price hits $4,900 Calculation: Calculate your 10% of the investing account: $20,000 Account x 0.10 = $2,000 per investment Divide the $ you willing to risk to the price you want to enter $2,000 / $4,900 = 0.4082 Set your entry order or market order for 0.4082 ETH @ $4,900 price 0.4082 x $4,900 = $2000 (This is the amount you will need in your investing account to execute this buy.) You want to lose no more than 25% of your original $2,000 investment. $2,000 x 0.75 = $1,500 $1,500 / 0.4082 = $3,674.67 Set your alert and SL at $3,674.67 If price hits your alert/SL, your order would be 0.4082 ETH x $3,674.679 = $1500 $2,000 - $1500 = $500 = 25% of $2,000 You want to gain about 50% of your original investment before selling. $2,000 x 1.50 = $3,000 $3,000 / 0.4082 = $7,349.34 Set your alert and TP at $7,349.34 If price hits your TP, your order would be 0.4082 ETH x $7,349.34 = 3,000.00 $3,000 - $2,000 = $1,000 = 50% of $2,000 Example 5: Want to buy MATIC to hold for long term as investment Scenario: Investing Account $1,500 Risk 20% of your investing account Want to buy MATIC to hold for long terms Want to enter when price hits $2.25 Calculation: Calculate your 20% of the investing account: $1,500 Account x 0.20 = $300 per investment Divide the $ you willing to risk to the price you want to enter $300 / $2.25 = 133.34 MATIC Set your entry order or market order for 133.34 MATIC @ $2.25 price 133.34 x $2.25 = $300 (This is the amount you will need in your investing account to execute this buy.) You want to lose no more than 50% of your original $300 investment. $300 x 0.50 = $150 $150 / 133.34 = $1.1249 Set your alert and SL at $1.1249 If price hits your alert/SL, your order would be 133.34 MATIC x $1.1249 = $149.99 $300 - $149.99 = $150.01 = 50% of $300 You want to gain about 75% of your original investment before selling. $300 x 1.75 = $525 $525/133.34 = $3.9373 Set your alert and TP at $3.9373 If price hits your TP, your order would be 133.34 MATIC x $3.9373 = $525 525 - $300 = $225 = 75% of $300 Any questions, comments and feedback welcome to let me know. If you like more of these contents, like, subscribe/follow and comment for me to keep doing them. :) Jojo
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
35
Why Do You Need a Trading Journal? 📝 Hey traders, 📖 Trading Journal is a crucial element in your trading education. Even though the majority tends to neglect it, in fact, it is considered to be the essential part of a daily routine of a professional trader. In this post, we will discuss why you should keep a trading journal & how it enhances your trading performance. Let's start with the obvious: ✍️ Trading journal is applied for recording your trading positions: winning and losing ones. With that, you can monitor your current performance, identify the mistakes that were made and examine your decisions. ❌ Analyzing the errors you learn your weaknesses & the situations when it is preferable not to trade. You adjust your trading strategy accordingly in order to avoid similar mistakes in future. 💪 Examining the winning trades you learn about your strengths. You identify the trading instruments, the trading setups where your strategy reaches the highest accuracy. ⚖️ Working with the numbers you can measure your investing exposure and calculate your account drawdowns. You can analyze your losing streaks & your long-term/mid-term/short-term account statistics. 📈 Analyzing the figures you can measure your progress over time by comparing your current results with the old ones. 😡 Keeping the record of your emotions, you can measure & quantify the psychological element of your trading. You may calculate the percentage of emotional decisions being made and their effect. 🌟 Consistent journaling makes you disciplined. It teaches you to strictly follow the rules of your trading plan & constantly learn from your mistakes in order to hasten the path towards a more disciplined and profitable trading career. A trading journal should be simple and tailored to your specific trading style and the goals you would like to achieve. I hope that my words will inspire you to keep a trading journal! Do you have the one already? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
102
Ichimoku StrategyI have been asked how to use the Ichimoku Strategy so here is a quick breakdown on how the cloud works. Included is a picture Displaying the different aspects of what o look for and the terminology used. I am also including a few links to two youtube videos and websites/articles I have used to better understand this strategy. I have only been using this strategy for about two months so I am by no means a master of it. Also, don't forget to use indicators for strength and to use technical analysis to decide on a trade path. While the cloud works great, trades can be missed due to the following rules. A general rule of thumb, don't take a trade unless your trading with the trend as well as at a good entry as defined further along in this discussion. A few things to remember, never trade if the Chiku Span, Tenken Sen and/or Kijun Sen are inside the cloud. If one of these lines has not crossed over for your trade setup, long or short, don't enter wait until all three pass through the cloud. The indicator as to whether you want to short or long is determined by Senkou A. If Senkou A is above Senkou B, a green cloud, a long position is most desirable, if Senkou A is below Senkou B, a red cloud, a short position is most desirable. Pay attention to Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen as they can help determine a desirable entry vs a non desirable entry. If Tenkan Sen is above Kijun Sen, look for long position. If Tenkan Sen is below Kijun Sen a short would be more favorable. Another aspect to keep in mind for entering a trade if it is passed through the cloud and the original entrance was missed is waiting for Tenken Sen to cross below Kijun Sen and to then start to cross over for a long position. For a short, wait for it to cross above and then cross back over and dip below. sometimes a trade can be favorable when Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen almost meet then diverge apart continuing in the same direction. Chiku Span is useful in seeing the action of the trade. It shows what is occuring in a clearer fashion than studying the chart solely. If Chiku Span starts to move sideways and catches up to the candles, Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen then it might be a good time to look at closing a trade. These are a few resources I have used to help better understand the cloud. www.investopedia.com www.fidelity.com www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
Education
by UmbraAscensor
5
Tips For Securing Your TradingView ProfileSecurity and privacy are incredibly important to us. We have an entire team dedicated to it! We want all members to be absolutely confident that they have the tools they need to ensure their accounts are secure, safe, and protected. Let's get started. The Obvious Tips Don't use the same password everywhere or else one breach could expose all accounts. Make sure your passwords are unique and not easy to guess. Make sure to use strong passwords and special characters like @ # ! / < ? % when possible. Don't fall for scams! Always double and triple check links that you click. Don't give out your log in credentials to anyone. One helpful tip is to make sure you have the official www.TradingView.com homepage bookmarked on your browser. You'll also want to ensure you have the TradingView mobile apps on iOS or Android. Don't download imitators! Only use the official TradingView.com platform and apps. The Tools Available To You All TradingView members have access to individual security features within their Profile Settings . Head to your Profile Settings page to get started. Once you've made it to your Profile Settings, click the Privacy and Security tab . From here you can manage the full security of your account including several unique features: • Enable Two-Factor Authentication • Review linked social accounts • Check sessions and logged in history • Log out of individual devices • Log out of all devices • Disable/Enable chat • Ignore users • Complete control of your profile, how it looks and the information shown For those interested in managing their individual trader Profile , we have tools that let you quickly change your profile picture, connected social media accounts, about & bio, location, and an entire notification suite for on platform notifications and email notifications. Bonus Tips! Two factor authentication is a must-have for those interested in the ultimate level of security. It means you can use a second device, like your phone, or an authentication app to confirm every log in. If you're looking to learn more about all of the security features available to you, check out our Help Center. For example, this post explains more common tips to securing your account ! There's even more within our Help Center , which is free for everyone to learn more about markets and TradingView. Thanks for reading! - Team TradingView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
50
The Daily TimeframeI am commonly asked what is the most important time frame to analyse your pairs on. Which doesn't always result in a simple answer since multiple time frames must be taken into consideration for successful trading e.g. weekly/daily/4h/1h. However, there is the one that is universally considered to be principal and that is the daily time frame. Here are some of the main reasons why so many traders rely on a daily time frame and why you should to: 1️⃣ - Daily time frame shows a global market trend at the same time reflecting a mid-term and short-term perspective allowing the trader catch trend following moves and spot early reversal signs. The simple nature of one candle closure per day keeps things a lot more simple compared to lower timeframes. 2️⃣ - Covering multiple perspectives, the daily time frame is the foundation of the majority of the trading strategies and is the main source of key levels & pattern analysis. 3️⃣ - Filters out news events that happened during the trading day. It shows the composite reaction of the market participants to all the data posted in the economic calendar. 4️⃣ - Daily time frame reflects all trading sessions. Within one single candle, we see the outcome of the Asian, London, and New York Sessions. 5️⃣ - Daily candle filters out all the noise from lower time frames & intraday price fluctuations and sudden spikes & rejections. 6️⃣ - Similar to covering all the trading sessions, daily time frame also mirrors the activities of big players like hedge funds and banks. Showing us the flow & direction of big money. ⚠️ Please note: Despite the daily timeframe being so important for analysis, still do not neglect other time frames. The most accurate trading decision can be made only relying on a combination of intraday and daily time frames.
Education
by NimmoCapital
3 Types of Traders: Which Are You?3 Types of Traders: Which Are you? There are many different approaches of trading the financial markets that has provoked countless methods and strategies to be created over the decades. One popular way to simplify & view this is to break it down into 3 types of traders which is categorised by two main factors which include the trading frequency & timeframes used by each one of the trading types. 1️⃣ Scalper The large majority of beginner traders end up starting out with this type of trading because of numerous reasons. But mainly, this is due to the fast pace that the market moves, presenting many trading opportunities and giving off the perception of an opportunity to get rich quick. Ironically, this trading style is then considered as one of the most easiest and successful ways of trading by beginner traders, while being stated by professional traders to be one of the most difficult. Scalpers often have dozens of trading positions open at a time during multiple trading sessions and need to be in front of the charts at all times. Therefore, paying huge commissions to their broker due to spreads also making this type of trading have a high cost to it. Not to mention the chaos in lower timeframe analysis that eventually results in the majority to stop trading. This is not to say that you cannot be successful with scalping. However, the main obstacle alongside many other with scalping, is the level of constant focus & rapid-decision making required which can have massive negative effects on your overall trading psychology if not kept in check. 2️⃣ Intraday Intraday or day trading is the most popular type of trading amongst retail traders and is what I prefer the most myself. Staying relatively active, the market gives some time for the trader to reflect & think upon their analysis on the pairs they are analysing. Opening and managing on average ~1-2 positions per trading session, the intraday approach offers a degree of freedom. But does come at a cost due to the declining amount of volume and volatility, intraday traders may experience low risk:reward setups because of the average daily range of many pairs on the market. 3️⃣ Swing Swing trading is the best choice for individuals who want to pursue trading while having a full-time occupation outside of trading. This is possible due to this type of trading primarily focusing on the higher timeframes such as daily/weekly for a large proportion of their analysis. Thus, swing trading is not demanding when being combined with an individuals typical daily routine and trading psychology since they aim to catch mid/long-term market movements. With an average trade holding length of 2 weeks and only 1-2 positions being placed per week. Swing trading is regarded to be one of the least emotional approaches and involves low cost of trading with great risk:reward setups. Though, the main problem with swing trading is the degree of patience required when holding out for long period of times. Often resulting in the trader closing their positions too early and not having the ability to allow the positions to reach their final targets. Which type of trading do you prefer?
Education
by NimmoCapital
1
Quality And Location Spreads Provide Fundamental CluesMy introduction to commodity markets came in the 1970s when I was invited to work for the summer for the world’s leading commodity merchant company. In the 1970s, Philipp Brothers’ headquarters were in the heart of New York City. The company had offices all over the world. Where it did not have an office, it had a network of agents. Philipp Brothers bought commodities from producers and provided financing for raw materials production and sold to consumers. In an era of rising inflation in the late 1970s, the company was so profitable that it bought the leading Wall Street, privately held bond trading and investment banking firm, Salomon Brothers. My first job was delivering telex messages to trading and traffic departments. Traders were the kings, earning millions in profits. The traffic department arranged the logistics of moving raw materials around the globe from production points to consuming locations. The telex messages contained information about proposed transactions and completed ones. I read each one with great interest. Those messages turned out to be an invaluable education in the business. The high school job turned into a lifelong career. The excitement of markets and the global nature of the commodities business was a powerful force that caused me to forgo law school for a career as a commodity trader. Market structure- We looked at processing spreads and term structure Location-location-location is the real estate mantra- It applies to commodities too Different qualities command premiums or discounts Another part of market structure that can provide valuable clues and makes the pieces of the puzzle form a picture I view the commodity markets as a jigsaw puzzle with many moving pieces. Each market has idiosyncratic characteristics. Quality and location are parts of each market’s structure and can provide insight into the path of least resistance of prices. Market structure- We looked at processing spreads and term structure Over the past two weeks, I highlighted processing spreads and term structure, two critical puzzle pieces. In the future, I will cover substitution spreads and the essential technical factors that held uncover a picture of the path of least resistance for prices. Processing spreads tell us about the demand for one commodity that is a product of another. Crude oil crack spreads and soybean crush spreads were examples. Term structure tells us about the supply-demand balance as backwardation where deferred prices are lower than nearby prices for the same commodity indicates supply shortages or concerns. Contango, where deferred prices are higher, suggests plenty of nearby supplies to satisfy demand or a market is in equilibrium with supply and demand balanced. This week, we will look at location and quality spreads covering the same commodity’s regional dynamics and different compositions. These spreads shed light on areas of the world where a commodity may trade at a significant differential or where other forms or variations of the same commodity are at premiums or discounts, which could signal price changes. Location-location-location is the real estate mantra- It applies to commodities too A location spread reflects the price of the same commodity for delivery in one location or area versus another. The most recent example of substantial location differentials has been in the natural gas market. The natural gas futures contract on the CME’s NYMEX division reflects the price of the energy commodity for delivery at the Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana. The chart shows that in October 2021, the futures reached the highest price since February 2014 when they traded to a high of $6.466 per MMBtu, only 2.7 cents below the 2014 $6.493 high. Meanwhile, shortages of natural gas in Asia and Europe pushed the energy commodity price over five times higher than the NYMEX futures price. Since natural gas in liquid form travels the world via ocean vessels, the high prices in Asia and Europe have a bullish impact on US prices. Meanwhile, prices in the US can vary dramatically from the NYMEX Henry Hub price, which is a benchmark. Following the price action in natural gas swaps between one US region and others can provide clues about the energy commodity’s price path. Commodity production tends to be localized in areas of the world where the earth’s crust contains reserves or the soil and climate support crop growth. Consumption is widespread as people worldwide require essential staples. When local shortages occur, prices can rise to substantial premiums to benchmarks. In glut conditions, they can fall to significant discounts. Monitoring these location differentials in all commodities provides valuable information about supply and demand characteristics. Different qualities command premiums or discounts A quality spread is the price differential between one form or composition of a commodity and another in the same raw material. An example is the price differential for one hundred-ounce bars of gold and four hundred-ounce bars of gold. Each COMEX contract calls for 100 ounces of the precious metal, the US standard of trade. The London gold market is a far more active wholesale market, where the standard of trade calls for the four hundred-ounce bars. Price differentials reflect the price and time to process one form of gold into the other. Significant premiums or discounts of either size bars, or different sizes such as kilos bars, one-ounce bars, or others, can tell us about retail or wholesale gold demand. When we drink a cup of coffee, we rarely think of the origin of the beans that are ground into the caffeinated beverage. Arabica coffee beans trade in the futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange. The Arabica beans tend to be most popular in the US. Starbucks, Dunkin Donuts, and most US establishments offer Arabica coffee to consumers. Brazil is the world’s leading producer of Arabica beans. Meanwhile, Vietnam is the leading product of Robusta coffee, which is the beans required for espresso coffees. Robusta coffee futures trade on the Intercontinental Exchange in Europe. A weather event in Vietnam or Brazil can cause supply issues for Arabica or Robusta beans, leading to a price change in one or both variations of the soft commodity. There are many other examples of quality spreads where one form or size of a commodity can experience supply or demand changes that impact the overall price action in the raw materials. Another part of market structure that can provide valuable clues and makes the pieces of the puzzle form a picture Location and quality factors can reveal underlying fundamental trends in a commodity. Comparing current levels to historical ones and explaining the changes often leads to an improved understanding of previous price trends and can help predict the future path of least resistance of prices. Location and quality differentials are parts of a market’s overall structure. Combined with the other structural factors, they can uncover opportunities that improve the odds of success. --- Use the links below to sign up for the Monday Night Strategy Call this week. You can also access the full article for free using the other link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
2
Term Structure Provides Fundamental CluesLast week, I wrote on processing spreads, a valuable tool that can provide clues about price direction. The price action in products that trade in the futures market like gasoline, heating oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil often tell us a lot about the path of least resistance for the crude oil and soybean futures contracts. This week, I will turn my attention to term structure. Term structure is the price differential between one delivery period and another in the same commodity. Some traders call term structure time spreads, calendar spreads, front-to-back spreads, or switches. They are all the same, reflecting delivery or settlement premiums or discounts based only on time. Backwardation- It’s what it sounds like Contango- It’s not what it sounds like A real-time supply and demand indicator Commodities are unique- A mentor made a mint trading time spreads Time spreads can enhance your commodity trading results- The cure for low and high commodity prices The late Apple founder Steve Jobs once said, “My favorite things in life don’t cost any money. It’s really clear that the most precious resource we all have is time.” While Steve Jobs was referring to his mortality, time is a critical factor in commodities. Close attention to term structure unlocks clues about fundamental supply and demand factors. Backwardation- It’s what it sounds like Backwardation is a condition where commodity prices for deferred delivery are lower than for nearby delivery. A backwardation suggests that supplies are tight, forcing nearby prices higher. The condition also indicates that producers will increase output in response to a market’s deficit, leading to lower future markets. As of the end of last week, the NYMEX crude oil futures market was in backwardation. The chart of NYMEX WTI crude oil for delivery in December 2022 minus the price for delivery in December 2021 was trading at over a $12 per barrel backwardation or discount. December 2021 futures settled at the $83.57 level on October 29, with the December 2022 futures at the $71.33 level. Robust demand, supply concerns, and other factors have driven the spread into the widest backwardation in years and NYMEX crude oil to the highest price since 2014. Higher crude oil prices tend to support a wider backwardation. Historically, the Middle East’s political volatility has caused supply concerns at higher prices as the region is home to over half the world’s petroleum reserves. Crude oil is one example of a raw material market where the term structure reflects supply concerns. The trend towards a wider backwardation has been bullish for the energy commodity. Contango- It’s not what it sounds like While backwardation is a term that reflects the spread differentials, contango is another story. In the commodities lingo world, contango is backwardation’s opposite as it reflects a market where prices for deferred delivery are higher than for nearby delivery. Backwardation is a sign of supply concerns, whereas contango is present during periods of oversupply or equilibrium where supply and demand balance. The gold futures market is an example of a term structure in contango. The daily chart highlights gold for delivery in December 2022 minus December 2021 is trading at a $10.30 contango or premium at the end of last week. The December 2021 futures were at the $1783.90 level, with the December 2022 contract at the $1794.20 level. Central banks worldwide hold massive gold stocks as part of their foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, supply concerns tend to be low in the gold markets leading to a premium in its term structure. Moreover, gold has a long history as a means of exchange or money. Higher interest rates tend to push gold contangos higher. Gold is one example of a commodity market in contango. A real-time supply and demand indicator A commodity’s term structure can be a helpful tool as it provides insight into supply and demand fundamentals. When a raw material price spikes higher because demand rises or supplies decline, the term structure tends to move into a widening backwardation. Producers respond by increasing output, creating the deferred discount. When markets are in glut or oversupply conditions, producers often cut back on output, causing the chances for future deficits to develop. Thus, a steep contango can reflect the market’s perception that nearby oversupply will lead to eventual shortages. Term structure is one of the puzzle pieces that comprise a market’s structure. The others are processing spreads, location and quality spreads, and substitution spreads. Commodities are unique- A mentor made a mint trading time spreads Commodities are essentials. Agricultural commodities feed and clothe the world and are increasingly providing alternative energy. Industrial commodities, including metals, energy, and minerals, are requirements for shelter, power, and infrastructure. Other raw materials have varying applications in daily life and even the financial system. Shortages or gluts can have significant impacts on the global economy. The current inflationary pressures have roots in commodities, which had experienced price rises since the beginning of the worldwide pandemic when short-term lows gave way to bullish price action. Supply chain bottlenecks and slowdowns or shutdowns at mines and processing facilities have put upward pressure on prices. Perhaps the most dramatic example came in the lumber futures market. The quarterly lumber futures chart shows the price explosion to a record $1711.20 high in May 2021 on the back of slowdowns and shutdown at lumber mills and supply chain bottlenecks bringing wood to consumers during a period of rising demand. When lumber reached its May high, nearby January futures were far lower. The chart shows January futures peaked at $1275 per 1,000 board feet, over $435 lower than the nearby contract at the May high. When I worked at Phibro in the 1990s, my direct boss was Andy Hall, one of the most successful crude oil traders in history. While many market participants believe Mr. Hall churned out profits with long and short positions in the oil market, his greatest success came from what he called “structural risk positions.” He tended to buy the front months in the oil market and sell the deferred contracts when the market moved into contango. I remember the night when Saddam Hussein marched into Kuwait in 1990. The invasion caused the nearby price of crude oil to double in a matter of minutes. Meanwhile, deferred oil prices declined, sending the spread to a massive backwardation. Mr. Hall pocketed hundreds of millions in profits on that night. His theory was that the risk of contango was limited over time, and the potential for spikes in backwardation increased the odds of success. Time spreads can enhance your commodity trading results- The cure for low and high commodity prices Commodity prices tend to rise to prices where producers increase output, consumers look for substitutes or limit buying, causing inventories to build. As supply rise to levels above demand, price find tops and reverse. Conversely, prices tend to drop to levels where production becomes uneconomic. At low prices, consumers look to increase buying, and inventories decline, leading to price bottoms and upside reversals. The cure for high or low prices is those high or low prices in the world of commodities. Meanwhile, highs or lows can be moving targets. As we learned in lumber and a host of other markets over the years, highs occur at levels that most analysts believe are illogical, irrational, and unreasonable. We learned the same holds on the downside as nearby NYMEX crude oil futures fell to a low of negative $40.32 per barrel in April 2020. Time spreads can be real-time indicators of changes in a commodity’s supply and demand fundamentals. Understanding and monitoring term structure can only enhance the odds of success in the commodities asset class. --- Register for the Monday Night Call below. You can also sign up to see the full articles for free, and get early access, using the other link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
LEducation
by Andy_Hecht
9
Want To Improve Your Trading Game? Play Poker!In virtually any field of athletics it is advised that you should cross-train in order to both avoid injury and increase performance . For example, Football players are encouraged to take up pilates, yoga, and swimming. Runners can reduce injury and increase performance by incorporating Rollerblading, Barre, and Zumba into their routines.  So what should traders do in order to "cross-train" that will make them better traders, to help them "avoid injury" (as in lose money ) and "increase performance" (as in make money )? My answer: Play Poker! Yes, Poker and Trading are both "sedentary" activities where you are sitting at a desk or table. It is the brain that needs to be toned, limbered up, and made flexible, not the body. (Though you need to make sure your body is healthy too!) So it is safe to say that the peak performance trader needs a mental cross-training routine, not necessarily a physical one. So why is Poker the ideal cross-training exercise for traders? 1: Poker Teaches Risk Management Unless you're a novice or not seriously playing in a virtual poker App, there's little chance you will go "All In" at the poker table. I can count on one hand the number of times I went "all in" and I won every time. Such opportunities rarely happen. When I did move my pile of chips to the center of the table it was because I knew what was in my hand. I "managed my risk". Likewise, the trader or investor should almost never go "all-in", putting their entire account into asset X, Y, or Z because "the market will market" on you and you will lose it all. In trading terms, you can very easily "blow up your account."  As Kenny Rogers says, "You've got to know when to hold'em... and know when to fold'em." Good risk management requires that even if you lose say, 5 times in a row, you will live to trade another day. I frequently talk about never risking more than 1% of your account on any single trade . A 5% loss is easy to recover from with two 3-R wins, or one 7-R win. Likewise in poker, with a $100 buy-in, you usually have $1 antes, allowing you to play up to 100 hands (even if you were the worst poker player in the world) risking only 1% per hand. In poker, only if the "odds are in your favor", that is, you have two-pair, or you have three or four-of-a-kind, or a straight, would you consider raising the stakes to 2, 5, or even 10% of your bankroll. If you can make 20R from a 4R "risk" with the odds in your favor, you are now thinking like a professional trader where Risk Management is "Job One". 2: Poker Teaches Emotional Management I like to teach that our goal as a trader is to be totally mechanical - totally rules-based. Our goal is to "Trade like a Vulcan" or "Trade like Spock: Trade long and prosper!" What's the poker analogy? Having a " Poker Face ". Or as the old antiperspirant commercial said, "Never let'em see you sweat."  We may have an awesome hand, but we can't display a "woo-hoo" face because no one will bet against us. We may have a terrible hand, but we can't put up a "oh, good grief!" face and let others know that they have even the slightest chance of beating us. We have to play every hand waiting for the last card drawn (the river) because that last card can make or break what we are holding in our hand. And very often it is that last card dealt, "the river", that can make or break a poker hand. 3: Poker Teaches You to Play the Probabilities Growing up in Brooklyn, New York, I remember the famous slogan from the New York Lottery: "You gotta be in it to win it!" They threatened (coerced?) every New Yorker with "fear of loss" if they didn't play the lotto... "Well, yeah, we all know the odds of you winning are are actually close to zero, but of you don't play then they really are zero so you better play or you will feel more like the loser than you already are!" Thankfully, the odds in winning at Poker are much higher than winning a set of numbers printed on ping-pong balls, which teaches you that when you have an "edge"... when you have a "system" that has the odds in your favor (a winning trading system) you can't try to outsmart the system – you need to play every hand that meets the criteria of your system.  As hockey great Wayne Gretzky said, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." So as Poker players and as traders, we have to play every hand, or every trade that appears that meets our trading plan's criteria, otherwise if we try to "outsmart the market" we will lose every time. And more often than not, even with a terrible hand, say a 2 and 4 of spades, you might find that if you don't fold, every once in a while three spades will appear on the table giving you one of the high-probability hands: the flush . So play every hand . And in trading, take every trade opportunity that appears that qualifies under your rules-based trading system. 4: Poker Teaches You To Stay Humble My poker buddies and I play every month or so. Early in my tenure when I learned to play poker I realized "Hey, I'm pretty good at this.... I'm gauging the probabilities, I'm keeping my risk-per-hand low, I'm taking small profit after small profit and leaving with twice the money I bought in for or more. Drinks are on me!" Then I got cocky... Walking into game four I thought to myself "I'm the Vulcan, emotionless, rules-based, odds-calculating poker player, right?" And that night my proverbial hat was handed to me. It was one of the worst games I'd played to that point. I over-bid, I bluffed (something I had never done before and my opponents knew it!), and I raised bets on hands I know I should have folded. I re-bought in after losing my original buy-in and lost all of that! And I went home with a valuable lesson: Don't think you can out-smart the probabilities.  The reason we win at poker is the same reason we win at trading. We must always play the odds, we must never play the low probability hands, we must always keep our emotions get the best of us, and when it's time to fold, it's time to fold!" Last week our poker group met again. I bought in for $50 and left with $135. In trading parlance, that was a 170% return. I was grateful. I learned my lesson. I've got to stay humble and let the hand come to me, let the trade come to me, and never think I can out-smart the table or the market. 5: Poker Teaches You To Set a Financial Target One of the reasons that casinos give their players free drinks, free upgrades to already expensive suites, and free food is they know that "the more you play, the more you'll pay." You can be up $5,000 for the night, then go get yourself some free lobster tails paired with filet mignon, a bottle of wine, and a decadent dessert. Then you return to the tables all fat, happy, and lubricated and proceed to hand all your winnings back to the House.  I know more than one poker player who has a rule: "When I double my money, I'm done . I may walk in with $500, and when I'm $500 to the positive, I quit and go on to enjoy the rest of my night, otherwise I'll just give it all back." Similarly, I know many a trader (yours truly included) who may have been up a sizable amount wonderfully early in the trading session, then proceed to give all those winnings back to the market an hour or so later. Setting a daily "win" will prevent you from getting mentally "fat and sassy" where you will become overconfident and then hand your winnings back to the market.  As a Poker player, you may want to make a certain amount of money per game. As a trader, you might want a daily amount of "R" or dollar amount to the positive. In either case, when you hit your goal, even if it's in the first 20 minutes of the trading session you need to close all open trades and enjoy the fact that you did what 90% likely did not do that day: end the day in the green! On other words, "Quit while you're ahead!" 6: Poker Player Are Part of a Vibrant Community Full of Fun People! Like traders, the number of people who are committed to improving their poker game are few. We need to belong to a strong community of passionate poker players to perfect our craft just as we need to belong to a strong community of passionate (and profitable) traders in order to continually perfect our skill at taking money from the markets each and every day. There are online poker communities you can join (think: Simulated Trading) and there are global in-person Poker communities that can link you up with other players once you're ready to "go live". These communities are generally free to join and will help you build up the skill to become a proficient and profitable Poker player which, more importantly, will help you become an even more proficient and profitable trader.  Is there anything else about Poker that you think needs to be added to the list? Leave a comment below.  As always, Trade well! (And maybe I'll see you at the table!)
NYSE:GEEducation
by ocaptain
3
Processing Spreads Provide Fundamental CluesSome futures markets offer contracts that are related to others and are processed products of the commodity. Understanding the price relationships, history, and paths of least resistance of the processed product versus the original input can provide valuable insight into supply and demand fundamentals. Moreover, these relationships shed light on other related assets. Market structures are the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle Processing spreads are real-time supply and demand barometers The soybean crush spread Gasoline and distillate crack spreads Monitoring corporate profits There is so much data at our fingertips, but we need to understand how to use and interpret the information. Processing spreads are invaluable tools as they are critical variables for market calculus when forecasting the path of least resistance of prices. The crude oil and soybean futures markets offer liquid futures contracts in products that can reveal significant trends, warning signs, and calls to action. Anyone who undertakes a home improvement project knows that the job will not go well without the correct tools. Trying to hammer in a nail with a screwdriver is far from optimal. Tightening a bolt with an ax is a disaster. The best tool leads to the optimal result. The processing spread is one of the most critical tools in my investment and trading toolbox. Market structure are the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle In the world of commodities, market structure are integral pieces of a puzzle. When put together, they provide clues about the path of least resistance of prices as they reflect and can be real-time indicators of supply and demand fundamentals. A commodity’s market structure includes: Term structure- Price differentials for nearby versus deferred delivery periods. Location differentials- Price differentials for delivery of a raw material in different regions. Quality differentials- Price differentials for differing grades, sizes, or composition of the same commodity. Substitution spreads- The price comparison of one commodity for another that can serve as a substitute. Processing spreads- The margin or differential for refining or transforming one commodity into its products. Together, the various pieces that comprise a market’s structure create a picture that often points to higher or lower price paths. Processing spreads are real-time supply and demand barometers The processing spread is one of the valuable tools in an analysts’ toolbox. It tells us if demand for the products is rising or falling. Consumers often require the processed product instead of the raw commodity. The differential between prices of the input, the commodity, and the output, the product, is a critical fundamental measure. Narrowing processing spreads signal falling demand while widening spreads are a sign that supplies are not keeping pace with requirements. Since futures contracts prices are constantly changing, processing spreads can be volatile. When the commodity and product trade in the futures market, the differentials provide a unique supply and demand perspective for traders and investors. There can be many reasons for price variance in processing spreads. However, comparing them to historical levels can serve as real-time indicators of fundamental forces that determine the underlying commodity’s price direction when exogenous factors are not impacting the overall refining or treatment process. Many commodities do not offer futures contracts in the products. The soybean and crude oil markets are exceptions. The soybean crush spread Soybean futures trade on the CME’s CBOT division. Soybean products, soybean meal, and soybean oil also trade in the futures markets on the CBOT with separate and independent futures contracts. Soybean meal is a critical ingredient in animal feed, while soybean oil is cooking oil. Both have other uses. Processors crush raw soybeans into the two products; the oil is the liquid from the crushing process, while the meal is the solid substance. The soybean crush spread can be highly volatile. The monthly chart shows the soybean crush spread over the past fifteen years. The spread traded to a low of a quarter of one cent to as high as $2.1950. The low was in 2013 when soybean futures were trending lower from the all-time high in 2012 at $17.9475 per bushel. The high was in October 2014 when soybean futures were consolidating at lower levels. The move to the high was because consumers bought soybean products at lower prices around the $10 per bushel level. More recently, the crush spread signaled that soybean futures had run out of downside steam. After trading to a high of $16.7725 per bushel in May 2021, the oilseed futures fell below $12 in October. When soybeans were on the high in May, the crush fell to a low of 52.75 cents. At high soybean prices, consumers backed off buying the oilseed products, leading to a price correction that took the price below the $12 per bushel level in October. Meanwhile, falling prices caused demand for products to return. The crush spreads traded to the most recent high at $1.9050 during the week of October 18. The rising crush spread was a sign of robust demand that lifted the raw soybean futures from the recent low. The November soybean futures chart shows the rise from a low of $11.8450 to the $12.50 level. The price action in the crush spread was a signal that demand for products would lift the soybean futures price. The processing spread action signaled the price bottom over the past weeks. Gasoline and distillate crack spreads Crude oil refiners process the raw energy commodity that powers the world into products, gasoline, and distillates. The NYMEX futures market trades contracts in crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil. Heating oil is a distillate fuel that is a proxy for other distillates, including jet and diesel fuels. Refineries process crude oil into the oil products by heating them to different temperatures in a catalytic cracker. The price differential between the input, crude oil, and the output, the products, are “crack spreads.” Rising crack spreads point to increasing demand for oil products. When they fall, it is a sign of oversupply or weak demand. Crude oil futures reached lows in April 2020 during the height of the global pandemic’s impact on markets across all asset classes. The NYMEX crude oil futures weekly chart highlights the bullish trend since April 2020 as the energy commodity has made higher lows and higher highs. The weekly chart of the gasoline crack spreads highlights the bullish trend since March 2020. Gasoline is a seasonal commodity that tends to reach highs during the spring and summer months and decline during the winter as drivers tend to put more mileage on their cars during the warm months. However, at the $17.63 per barrel level at the end of last week, the gasoline crack spread was appreciable higher than the peak in October 2020, when it reached $11.62 per barrel. The gasoline crack spread has provided bullish validation for the path of least resistance of crude oil’s price. The weekly heating oil or distillate crack spread chart also displays a bullish trend. Distillates tend to be less seasonal than gasoline as jet and diesel requirements are year-round. At the $22.53 per barrel level at the end of last week, the heating oil crack was far higher than its October 2020 peak at $9.96 per barrel. The crack spreads have supported the rising crude oil price as they point to robust product demand. Monitoring corporate profits While processing spreads can provide insight into the path of least resistance of prices for commodities that are inputs, they are also real-time earnings indicators for companies that refine or process the raw commodities into the products. Refiners or processors tend to buy the input at market prices and sell products at market prices. The refiners and processors make significant capital investments in refineries or other processing equipment. They make or lose money on the processing spread. When they widen, they experience a profit bonanza; when they fall, times can get rough. When the spreads rise above the cost of the process, profits rise. Low processing spread levels can lead to losses. Valero (VLO) is a company that refines crude oil into oil products. The chart shows that the high in October 2020 was at $44.88 per share. In October 2021, VLO was over the $80 level at the end of last week. Rising crack spreads have lifted profits for the oil refiner. Archer Daniel Midland (ADM) and Bunge Ltd. (BG) are leading agricultural processors. Soybean processing is one of the many business lines for the two companies. The rising soybean crush spreads have lifted profits for the companies. In October 2020, ADM shares reached a high of $52.05 per share. At the end of last week, the stock was at the $66.22 level. BG shares reached a high of $60.50 in October 2020 and were trading at the $88.33 level at the end of last week. The rise soybean crush spreads at least partially supported rising profits and higher share prices for ADM and BG. Processing spreads are real-time indicators for the demand of the commodities that are the inputs. They are also real-time earnings barometers for companies that process commodities into products. Any tool that improves your ability to analyze markets is worth keeping in that toolbelt. --- The full article and spread charts are available using the link below. You can also sign up for the Monday Night Strategy Call below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYSE:VLOEducation
by Andy_Hecht
3
The most important words you need to know in fundamentalsHello everyone 😃 Before we start to discuss, I would be glad if your share your opinion on this post and hit the like button if you enjoyed it ! What Is Fundamental Analysis? Fundamental analysis (FA) is a method of measuring a security's intrinsic value by examining related economic and financial factors. Fundamental analysts study anything that can affect the security's value, from macroeconomic factors such as the state of the economy and industry conditions to microeconomic factors like the effectiveness of the company's management. The end goal is to arrive at a number that an investor can compare with a security's current price in order to see whether the security is undervalued or overvalued. This method of stock analysis is considered to be in contrast to technical analysis, which forecasts the direction of prices through an analysis of historical market data such as price and volume. Now you know what is fundamental analysis, But before you start to learn more about it, Its better to know the important words that authors use in their articles ! 📚 On this Article you'll learn about 25 of them and we'll continue to post the other in next educational posts; It's easier for you to read and remember ! 1. Assets: Capital that is frozen as in property, real estate or possession. 2. Bearish: The falling trend of assets and shares in markets. 3. Bonds: Governmental bonds that ensure a fixed rate of interest in often long term investment. 4. Boycott: To protest by refusing to purchase from someone, or otherwise do business with them. In international trade, a boycott most often takes the form of refusal to import a country's goods. 5. Bribe: A payment made to a person, often a government official such as a customs officer, to induce them to treat the payer favorably. 6. Broker's fee: The fee for a transaction charged by an intermediary in a market, such as a bank in a foreign-exchange transaction. 7. Bubble economy: Term for an economy in which the presence of one or more bubbles in its asset markets is a dominant feature of its performance. 8. Bubble: A rise in the price of an asset based not on the current or prospective income that it provides but solely on expectations by market participants that the price will rise in the future. When those expectations cease, the bubble bursts and the price falls rapidly. 9. Budget deficit: The negative of the budget surplus; thus the excess of expenditure over income. 10. Budget surplus: Refers in general to an excess of income over expenditure, but usually refers specifically to the government budget, where it is the excess of tax revenue over expenditure (including transfer and interest payments). 11. Bullish: A rising trend in the significant increase of funds and shares in the stock market. 12. Capital: the large amount of money or investment. 13. Capital loss: The loss in value that the owner of an asset experiences when the price of the asset falls, including when the currency in which the asset is denominated depreciates. It contrasts with capital gain. 14. Cartel: An agreement among, or an organization of, suppliers of a product. A group of firms that seeks to raise the price of a good by restricting its supply. The term is usually used for international groups, especially involving state-owned firms and/or governments. 15. Cash dividend: Cash distribution of earnings to stockholders, usually on a quarterly basis. 16. Commodity: Could refer to any good, but in a trade context a commodity is usually a raw material or primary product that enters into international trade, such as metals (tin, manganese) or basic agricultural products (coffee, cocoa). 17. Compensation: whoever violates agreement rules must compensate other countries by lowering tariffs or making other concessions, or be subject to retaliation. 18. (CSR) Corporate social responsibility: The responsibilities that corporations have to workers and their families, to consumers, to investors, and to the natural environment. 19. Corporation: Form of business organization that is created as a distinct legal person composed of one or more actual individuals or legal entities. Primary advantages of a corporation include limited liability, ease of ownership, transfer, and perpetual succession. A business form legally separate from its owners. Its distinguishing features include limited liability, easy transfer of ownership, unlimited life, and an ability to raise large sums of capital. 20. Decline: The falling of stocks or prices in the market. 21. Breakout: The breakout of a virus or the breakout of a war. 📚 There's a difference between this breakout with the breakout we call in chart analyzing ! 22. Minutes: The report from a meeting. (minutes from Fed’s meeting will be released) 23. Consolidate: The prices are reaching a plateau and becoming more stable. (the prices are consolidating) 24. Stimulus measure: The government is giving the banks a stimulus measure to be bailed out for the financial crisis. 25. Retreat: The management is retreating from their initial position to deduct the salary of the workers. (it's an example of retreat) 📍 We'll continue this series of educational posts in next days, STAY TUNED and don't forget to follow this idea, So you'll be notified after I post the new one... Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support us with your likes and comments 😉🙋🏼‍♂️ Have a good day! @Helical_Trades
NSENG:ACADEMYEducation
by Helical_Trades
11
What Is A Buy & Sell Stop Order?Both Buy and Sell Stop Orders are trade order set before current price hits those orders and gets you into a new trade. Buy Stop Order: An order that is executed at a specific predetermined price that is above the current price. Sell Stop Order: An order that is executed at a specific predetermined price that is below the current price. NEVER chases price when making a Forex trade, let price action come to your entry by setting either a Buy or Sell stop order. Then make sure you set your stop loss and targets at that time too. A.C.E. Strategy is: 1) Alert candle 2) Confirm candle 3) Enter candle
Education
by Anbat
Learn more about TradingView coinsHave you ever wanted to show your appreciation for an idea but felt that hitting the like button was just not enough? TradingView coins are a great way to show other users that you appreciate them! What are TradingView coins? TradingView coins are the site's internal currency. 1 coin is equal to $0.01 USD How can you get them? Refer a friend : When you refer a friend to TradingView, you both will get TradingView coins after they upgrade to one of our paid plans. Receive donations from other users: TradingView users can give coins for great content, to say thank you, if they're feeling generous, or for any other reason. Buy Coins: You can buy coins in batches of 500, 1,000, or 5,000. This can be done by opening the user menu and choosing "Coins". (Your current coin balance, donation history and other coin info is also shown here) Great! Now that you have your TradingView Coin treasure, how can you use it? Cheer someone : Cheer is a great way to show your support for users that you like. The size of your coin sending is fixed on our site with the following values: 100, 200, 350, or 500 coins. These values are equivalent to $1, $2, $3.50, and $5 USD. This feature is available for all users. Cheer an idea by using the "Comment with a cheer" button to send your message with some TradingView coins Cheer a user from their profile by selecting "Cheer" in the upper corner of their profile page. Purchase a paid plan : You can spend TradingView Coins on either our 1 month or 1 year paid plans. For example, 3000 coins is access up to 1 month of our PRO+ plan, one of our most popular options. Note that if you already have an active plan, you can add a month or a year of the same type with coins. Upgrades for coins are not supported. TradingView Coin Pro-Tip TradingView moderators, managers and staff give coins for ideas chosen as Editor's Picks, great scripts, ideas and other exceptional content all the time. They can be identified by the TradingView logo badge or "Mod" badge next to their name. Learn more about TradingView coins in our Help Center .
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by TradingView
22
The Importance Of Back-Testing Part 1When it comes to trading the financial markets (any market), back-testing your strategies is an absolute must. Although past performance does not guarantee future results, back-testing your strategy cannot be skipped or rushed if you wish to be a consistently profitable trader. Back-testing can be done many different ways today. There are many good software’s & trading platforms with available back-testing tools however, I personally prefer to use a spreadsheet as they are fully customizable & require you to fully understand the operation and function of the data you compile and your strategies performance. In my personal experience, I have found that traders who use software’s as opposed to manually back-testing each trade one by one, have a much more difficult time remaining consistently profitable. One of the effective benefits of manually back-testing your strategies is that you will be training your eyes to spot your specific Conditions & Criteria’s for entry along with getting a feel for the characteristics & movements of the market you are trading. You can manually back-test your strategies by going to your chart and scrolling as far to the left as you would like. Next you will slowly scroll one candle at a time to the right, until you see your setup. Once you see your setup, you should stop and enter the details of the trade into your back-testing tool. After you have entered the details of the trade into your spreadsheet, you should continue scrolling to see the results of the trade. Enter the results of the trade and continue scrolling right until you see your next setup. Your trading timeframe will determine how far back in time you can go for your back-testing. For example if you are using the 60 min chart as your trading timeframe, you should be able to test several years of trades whereas if you are using the 5 min chart as your trading timeframe, you may only be able to test several months of trades. I mainly trade using the 4hr and 60 min charts therefore I personally start my back-testing process by testing 1 years worth of trades. If I am happy with the results of the 1 years worth of tested trades, then I will typically restart the process of back-testing that strategy- going as far back In time as possible. I like to have 3+ years of back-tested trades before I will begin forward testing the strategy & then ultimately trading the strategy live. If you are unsure about the amount of time that you should back-test for your strategy, you can safely make this decision using the amount of trades instead- For example, I recommend back-testing AT LEAST 100 trades. I personally will not begin forward testing a strategy with any less. If the strategy proves profitable after 100 trades, I like to back-test as many as possible. There is no such thing as to much back-testing.  It is very important that we do not cheat during this process. Do your absolute best to scroll slowly as you proceed to avoid seeing the results of the trade before you have made the decision to enter. We must be honest in our approach to testing a strategy, in order to get the most accurate data & results possible. It is easy to see what happens next by accident & convince ourselves why we would or would not have taken that specific trade anyway. Be sure to follow your detailed conditions & criteria’s for entry as this will eliminate making discretional decisions. The purpose of pre-defined conditions and criteria’s for entry is to minimize the decision making process as much as possible. Please understand that cheating during this process is ultimately skewing the results of the strategy as well as cheating yourself! Back-testing serves many purposes to a professional trader & takes up a large portion of their work week as we are always looking for ways to improve our existing strategies and/or develop new, more efficient ones. This stage is also crucial to your confidence in your strategy which ultimately leads to being disciplined and following your set guidelines for the strategy you are using. Your confidence and discipline to your strategy will come into play during periods of “Drawdown" What Is Drawdown? Drawdown is an extended period of time that a traders account experiences loss or no increase in account balance. In other words, drawdown is a losing streak OR a period of time that the account makes no gain or loss. No matter how good a strategy is, it will eventually experience a losing streak. It is extremely important that we measure the severity of these drawdowns otherwise known as "Max Drawdown". Drawdowns can vary from strategy to strategy however as an example, my strategy typically experiences 1-2 drawdowns per year and the average length of these drawdowns are around 30-40 days long. Back-testing can really help maintain emotional stability & psychological logic during these prolonged periods of drawdown. If you begin to feel doubt while these periods of time are occurring, you may go back to your back-testing results to reassure yourself that it is normal for the strategy to not achieve a profit OR even lose a certain amount of money over the course of however long your results show on average. After we have completed 3 years worth of back-testing or at least 100 trades, you will be able to go back and see periods of time (typically 1-2 months) that the account made no money at all or even lost money. As an example- the strategy shown below carries an 11% Max Drawdown over the course of 3 years worth of trading, meaning that at some point during 3 years worth of trading, my account may experience a 11% loss from its current value at that time. This period of time is normal and as long as we do not exceed this Max Drawdown by more than 1 or 2%, we should continue trading our strategy without taking a further look to evaluate whether the strategy is outdated and needs adjusting or if we made trading related errors. looking at the date in the top left (10/4/2018) & Date at bottom right (11/5/2018), we can see that the strategy produced little to no gain over the course of this 32 days. When first starting out as a trader, this can be extremely difficult to deal with. 32 days can feel like a very long time while it is occurring but DO NOT give up on your strategy if it has shown to be profitable throughout your back and forward testing period!! This is where most inexperienced traders begin making mistakes, breaking their rules or change up strategies thinking the one they are using doesn’t work when in fact, this is 100% normal for EVERY strategy. This is where discipline comes into play. If you do not remain disciplined and stick to your strategy/rules during these periods of time, your lack of discipline will lead to inconsistent results & ultimately failure. Lets look at what happened right after this drawdown was finished had you stayed discipline. (See Image Below) In the following 47 days, the strategy managed to produce nearly a 90% gain! I am not saying these are the same results you will get, the point I am trying to make is to not jump from strategy to strategy or start making irrational decisions because of these periods of time. I have seen to many new traders destroy themselves because of drawdown or throw away an amazing strategy because they were unaware and uninformed about these periods of drawdown or because they chose not to back-test a strategy before using it to trade with live money. It is crucial that you extensively test anything you wish to use in the markets before using it. Take the time to feel those losses as if they were real and they were occurring in real time. Don't take anyone's word or back-testing results as your own, simply put the time in to this process yourself & you will find that your perspective of trading changes dramatically. You will start to treat this as a business and you will be one step closer to consistently profitable trading. Note: Back-testing a strategy must be done for each market you plan to trade. For example, your strategy may be profitable on EUR/USD however that does not mean it is profitable on any other currency pair or in any market in general. Be sure to back-test the strategy for each market you wish to trade as strategy results may vary widely from market to market. As a consistently profitable trader for the better half of a decade, the best advice I can give and the one thing I want you to take away from this post is- Always be sure to extensively back-test any trading strategy you plan to use in the markets. Without this step, you are essentially trading blind & will have an extremely hard time with your trading psychology & consistency. The software's out there today have a purpose when used correctly but I highly recommend using a more manual approach. It forces you to understand your strategy while training your eyes to spot your setups. Some Data Points You May Want To Gather For Strategy Optimization- I hope this was helpful for you, please leave a comment and let us know what your back-testing process looks like, and how you go about optimizing your trading strategies.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Alec40
9
Why Implied Volatility Is A Critical Tool For All TradersTraders and investors use different sets of tools when approaching markets. Some are fundamentalists, pouring through balance sheets, supply and demand data, and other macro and microeconomic information to predict the future prices of assets. Others have a strictly technical approach to markets, following trends and the path of least resistance of prices. Still, others combine the two to look for opportunities where fundamental and technical analysis merge to improve the chances of success. The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator The primary variable determining put and call option prices The three critical factors implied volatility reveals Yogi Berra, the hall of fame catcher and armchair philosopher, once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” All market participants have the same goal, to increase their nest eggs. Projecting the future is the route to achieve their goal. Implied volatility is a tool that all market participants need to embrace as it is a real-time indicator of market sentiment. The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors History depends on interpretation. When it comes to markets, Napoleon Bonaparte may have said it best, “history is a set of lies agreed upon.” An asset’s price moved higher or lower in the past because of a collection of variables viewed through a prism that leads to a collective conclusion that has broad acceptance but may not be accurate. Taking a risk-based position on an inaccurate conclusion could lead to mistakes and losses. When we consider buying or selling any asset, all that matters is the present. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level a seller is willing to accept and a buyer is willing to pay in a transparent environment, the market. Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices Historical volatility is an objective statistical tool that defines the price variance of the past. Any disclosure document tells us that past performance is no guaranty of future performance. We must view historical volatility precisely the same way, with more than a grain of salt. Historical volatility is a guide, but remember what Yogi said, “the future ain’t what it used to be!” We calculate historical volatility by determining the average deviation from the average price over a given period. When it comes to math, the formulas are: A simple explanation of the complicated formula comes in seven easy steps: 1. Collect the historical prices for the asset 2. Compute the expected price (mean) of the historical prices. 3. Work out the difference between the average price and each price in the series. 4. Square the differences from the previous step. 5. Determine the sum of the squared differences. 6. Divide the differences by the total number of prices (find variance). 7. Compute the square root of the variance computed in the previous step. Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator While we can calculate historical volatility from historical data, implied volatility is a different story. Implied volatility is the expected or projected volatility or price variance of an asset over time. We back into calculating implied volatility using an options pricing model. We can establish an implied volatility reading by entering the option value into the Black-Scholes options pricing formula or other formulas that determine options prices. If we have a put or call options price, we can solve for the implied volatility level. The Black-Scholes formula in mathematical notation is: The primary variable determining put and call option prices There are no option prices without implied volatility as it is the critical variable that determines put and call option values. Yogi also said, “You can observe a lot by watching.” The current implied volatility level is the market’s consensus perception of what volatility or price variance will be during the life of the put or call option. Observing and watching reveals the constant changes in implied volatility levels, which can be highly volatile over time. Option traders call an option’s sensitivity to changes in implied volatility Vega, which measures the change in an option price for a one-point change in implied volatility. Implied volatility is constantly changing. Yogi had another great saying, “If the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be,” which rings true for implied volatility which can change in the blink of an eye. Option traders pay lots of attention to their Vega risk as the volatility of implied volatility can be…highly volatile! How’s that for a tongue twister? The three critical factors implied volatility reveals Implied volatility is a valuable tool for all traders and investors for three significant reasons: It is a real-time indicator of the market’s perception of the future price range of an asset. It can change suddenly, and changes often occur before the price of an asset reacts, making implied volatility a leading indicator. Implied volatility reflects the wisdom of the crowd, and crowds tend to make better decisions than individuals. Moreover, it is reading that reflects the present, not the past, and is a constantly changing measure of consensus forecasts for the future. As traders and investors, we exist in the present. We attempt to increase our wealth with long and short risk positions that either add or subtract from our nest egg in the future. Implied volatility is a critical measure we should understand, utilize, and always keep in our toolbox. Any project requires the right tools. Implied volatility’s value is that it reflects a snapshot of the current market’s consensus. Historical volatility depends on “Deja vu” happening “all over again.” Implied volatility is a measure that understands that the “future ain’t what it used to be.” ----- Register for our Monday Night Call using the link below. You can view this full article (with specific examples) and get early access to future articles for free using the other link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
ICEUS:CT1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
18
Trading Basics | Your Main Trading Time Frame ⏳ Hey traders, You frequently ask me what is the most important time frame to analyze and follow. And even though I must admit that multiple time frames must be taken into consideration for successful trading like weekly/daily/4h/1h. Among them, there is the one that is universally considered to be principal. That is a daily time frame. There are a lot of reasons why so many traders rely on a daily time frame: 1️⃣ - Daily time frame shows a global market trend at the same time reflecting a mid-term and short-term perspective letting the trader catch trend following moves and spot early reversal signs. 2️⃣ - Covering multiple perspectives, daily time frame is the foundation of the majority of the trading strategies being the main source of key levels & pattern analysis. 3️⃣ - Daily time filters out news events that happened during the trading day. It shows the composite reaction of the market participants to all the data posted in the economic calendar. 4️⃣ - Daily time frame reflects all trading sessions. Within one single candle, we see the outcome of the Asian, London, and New York Sessions. 5️⃣ - Daily candle filters out all the noise from lower time frames & intraday price fluctuations and sudden spikes & rejections. 6️⃣ - Covering all the trading sessions, daily time frame mirrors the activities of big players like hedge funds and banks. Showing us the flow & direction of big money. ⚠️Being so important for analysis, do not neglect other time frames. The most accurate trading decision can be made only relying on a combination of intraday and daily time frames. What is your favorite time frame to trade? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
26
Engulfing Candle Trading Strategy (How To Spot & Trade Them)Engulfing Candles, due to their distinct characteristics, provide potential reversal signals for Forex traders Here’s how to spot and trade them... Bullish Engulfing Candle: (Chart example) 1) Down Trend 2) Bearish Candle 3) Open At Or Below The Previous Close 4) Bullish Candle 5) Close At Or Above The Previous Open 6) Close Preferably Near The High Aggressive Trader- Market Order With Stop Below Engulfing Candle and Conservative Trader- Set Buy Order When PA hits it Above Engulfing Wick With Stop Below Engulfing Candle. Yes, would be revered for a Bearish Engulfing Candle setup. Bearish Engulfing Candles: 1) Up Trend 2) Bullish Candle 3) Open At Or Above The Previous Close 4) Bearish Candle 5) Close At Or Below The Previous Open 6) Close Preferably Near The Low
Education
by Anbat
1
Analyst and Trader. What are the differences? The main difference between an Analyst and a Trader is in their main goals. For an analyst, the main goal is to determine the future price and write articles. Most analysts give a double trend direction in their forecasts, as they worry about their incorrect forecast, and hedge in case of their mistake. For a trader, the main goal is to MAKE a PROFIT when working in the market. At the same time, the direction of the trend is a secondary goal, since you can also make a profit by scalping when the trend does not matter much. Each trader has his approach to trading and his trading strategy. One trader opens a long position to earn money on the growth of quotations, but at the same time, another trader opens a short position on the same instrument to earn money when the price drops. PROFIT is the main priority for the trader. The analyst can show alternative options for the development of events, leaving the trader to make a responsible decision about actions in one or another option. At the same time, the Analyst does not risk anything - neither his money nor his reputation, since TWO OPPOSITE scenarios insure him from making a mistake. As a rule, 65% of analysts do not trade themselves, but only write analytical articles and make forecasts. A few facts about the analyst and trader: Analyst: - collects information and analyzes the market situation - writes analytical articles - makes forecasts (usually in two directions, for safety) - probably trades/invests by himself according to his forecasts Trader: - determines the direction for a potential transaction - performs risk calculation and installation of a protective order (stop loss) - performs trading operations on the market to make a profit - manages and accompanies the position from the beginning to the end And who do you think you are? An analyst or a trader? ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
7
Fibonacci Extension Tool (How To Use)How To Use The Fibonacci Extension Tool: Bearish example (like Chart) A) Highest Top Point B) Reversal Bottom Point C) 2nd Highest Top Point (Note) Can NOT be higher then A Point. D) Will be 3 points or targets, 1st target at 50% extension, 2nd target at 100% extension & 3rd target at 150% extension. The rules for take profit orders are very individual, but most traders use it as follows: A 50, 61.8 or 78.6 retracement will often go to the 161 Fibonacci extension after breaking through the 0%-level. A 38.2 retracement will often come to a halt at the 138 Fibonacci extension. Fibonacci extensions to the price moves. As you can see, the extensions provided great places for take profit orders. Conclusion: Fibonaccis are multi-functional This demonstrated how to use Fibonaccis efficiently in trading. Don’t make the mistake of idealizing Fibonacci s and believing that they are superior over other tools and methods. Fibonacci is a great tool to have and can be used very effectively as another confirmation method. Whether you are a trend following or a support and resistance trader, or just looking for ideas how to place your take profit orders, Fibonaccis are a great addition to your arsenal.
Education
by Anbat
FX Compounding Calculator (Do You Want To Be A Millionaire?) Only one way to grow a small account into a large account. That is by treating Forex trading as a marathon race not a sprint race. Do you have 2 to 5 years? You can use the compounding calculator to calculate profits. This allows you to understand better, how your trading account will grow over time. One of the most interesting facts about compounding is, that even a moderate monthly gain turns your initial capital into a serious amount of money over time. A Forex compounding calculator is useful to simulate how compounding the initial equity and the profitable trades, with a set gain percentage, can make a trading account grow over time. It works by simulating the compounding and the reinvesting of the same chosen gain percentage of the account's total equity. With this calculator traders can input the settings in order to accurately calculate the compounding results of a set of winning trades over a period of time. The use of this calculator can demonstrate traders how powerful gains compounding can be, and, that even a moderate gain percentage of 2% (for example) per trade, can turn an account’s initial capital into a substantial amount of capital over time. You will be surprised how powerful compounding can be. My goal is profit at least 1% per trade and/or 1% per session/day. Look at chart: You Can Do It- by letting your account grow with compounding profits < this is the holy grail of building your account. Albert Einstein said,"“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.”
Education
by Anbat
1