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Term Structure Provides Fundamental CluesLast week, I wrote on processing spreads, a valuable tool that can provide clues about price direction. The price action in products that trade in the futures market like gasoline, heating oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil often tell us a lot about the path of least resistance for the crude oil and soybean futures contracts. This week, I will turn my attention to term structure. Term structure is the price differential between one delivery period and another in the same commodity. Some traders call term structure time spreads, calendar spreads, front-to-back spreads, or switches. They are all the same, reflecting delivery or settlement premiums or discounts based only on time. Backwardation- It’s what it sounds like Contango- It’s not what it sounds like A real-time supply and demand indicator Commodities are unique- A mentor made a mint trading time spreads Time spreads can enhance your commodity trading results- The cure for low and high commodity prices The late Apple founder Steve Jobs once said, “My favorite things in life don’t cost any money. It’s really clear that the most precious resource we all have is time.” While Steve Jobs was referring to his mortality, time is a critical factor in commodities. Close attention to term structure unlocks clues about fundamental supply and demand factors. Backwardation- It’s what it sounds like Backwardation is a condition where commodity prices for deferred delivery are lower than for nearby delivery. A backwardation suggests that supplies are tight, forcing nearby prices higher. The condition also indicates that producers will increase output in response to a market’s deficit, leading to lower future markets. As of the end of last week, the NYMEX crude oil futures market was in backwardation. The chart of NYMEX WTI crude oil for delivery in December 2022 minus the price for delivery in December 2021 was trading at over a $12 per barrel backwardation or discount. December 2021 futures settled at the $83.57 level on October 29, with the December 2022 futures at the $71.33 level. Robust demand, supply concerns, and other factors have driven the spread into the widest backwardation in years and NYMEX crude oil to the highest price since 2014. Higher crude oil prices tend to support a wider backwardation. Historically, the Middle East’s political volatility has caused supply concerns at higher prices as the region is home to over half the world’s petroleum reserves. Crude oil is one example of a raw material market where the term structure reflects supply concerns. The trend towards a wider backwardation has been bullish for the energy commodity. Contango- It’s not what it sounds like While backwardation is a term that reflects the spread differentials, contango is another story. In the commodities lingo world, contango is backwardation’s opposite as it reflects a market where prices for deferred delivery are higher than for nearby delivery. Backwardation is a sign of supply concerns, whereas contango is present during periods of oversupply or equilibrium where supply and demand balance. The gold futures market is an example of a term structure in contango. The daily chart highlights gold for delivery in December 2022 minus December 2021 is trading at a $10.30 contango or premium at the end of last week. The December 2021 futures were at the $1783.90 level, with the December 2022 contract at the $1794.20 level. Central banks worldwide hold massive gold stocks as part of their foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, supply concerns tend to be low in the gold markets leading to a premium in its term structure. Moreover, gold has a long history as a means of exchange or money. Higher interest rates tend to push gold contangos higher. Gold is one example of a commodity market in contango. A real-time supply and demand indicator A commodity’s term structure can be a helpful tool as it provides insight into supply and demand fundamentals. When a raw material price spikes higher because demand rises or supplies decline, the term structure tends to move into a widening backwardation. Producers respond by increasing output, creating the deferred discount. When markets are in glut or oversupply conditions, producers often cut back on output, causing the chances for future deficits to develop. Thus, a steep contango can reflect the market’s perception that nearby oversupply will lead to eventual shortages. Term structure is one of the puzzle pieces that comprise a market’s structure. The others are processing spreads, location and quality spreads, and substitution spreads. Commodities are unique- A mentor made a mint trading time spreads Commodities are essentials. Agricultural commodities feed and clothe the world and are increasingly providing alternative energy. Industrial commodities, including metals, energy, and minerals, are requirements for shelter, power, and infrastructure. Other raw materials have varying applications in daily life and even the financial system. Shortages or gluts can have significant impacts on the global economy. The current inflationary pressures have roots in commodities, which had experienced price rises since the beginning of the worldwide pandemic when short-term lows gave way to bullish price action. Supply chain bottlenecks and slowdowns or shutdowns at mines and processing facilities have put upward pressure on prices. Perhaps the most dramatic example came in the lumber futures market. The quarterly lumber futures chart shows the price explosion to a record $1711.20 high in May 2021 on the back of slowdowns and shutdown at lumber mills and supply chain bottlenecks bringing wood to consumers during a period of rising demand. When lumber reached its May high, nearby January futures were far lower. The chart shows January futures peaked at $1275 per 1,000 board feet, over $435 lower than the nearby contract at the May high. When I worked at Phibro in the 1990s, my direct boss was Andy Hall, one of the most successful crude oil traders in history. While many market participants believe Mr. Hall churned out profits with long and short positions in the oil market, his greatest success came from what he called “structural risk positions.” He tended to buy the front months in the oil market and sell the deferred contracts when the market moved into contango. I remember the night when Saddam Hussein marched into Kuwait in 1990. The invasion caused the nearby price of crude oil to double in a matter of minutes. Meanwhile, deferred oil prices declined, sending the spread to a massive backwardation. Mr. Hall pocketed hundreds of millions in profits on that night. His theory was that the risk of contango was limited over time, and the potential for spikes in backwardation increased the odds of success. Time spreads can enhance your commodity trading results- The cure for low and high commodity prices Commodity prices tend to rise to prices where producers increase output, consumers look for substitutes or limit buying, causing inventories to build. As supply rise to levels above demand, price find tops and reverse. Conversely, prices tend to drop to levels where production becomes uneconomic. At low prices, consumers look to increase buying, and inventories decline, leading to price bottoms and upside reversals. The cure for high or low prices is those high or low prices in the world of commodities. Meanwhile, highs or lows can be moving targets. As we learned in lumber and a host of other markets over the years, highs occur at levels that most analysts believe are illogical, irrational, and unreasonable. We learned the same holds on the downside as nearby NYMEX crude oil futures fell to a low of negative $40.32 per barrel in April 2020. Time spreads can be real-time indicators of changes in a commodity’s supply and demand fundamentals. Understanding and monitoring term structure can only enhance the odds of success in the commodities asset class. --- Register for the Monday Night Call below. You can also sign up to see the full articles for free, and get early access, using the other link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
LEducation
by Andy_Hecht
9
Want To Improve Your Trading Game? Play Poker!In virtually any field of athletics it is advised that you should cross-train in order to both avoid injury and increase performance . For example, Football players are encouraged to take up pilates, yoga, and swimming. Runners can reduce injury and increase performance by incorporating Rollerblading, Barre, and Zumba into their routines.  So what should traders do in order to "cross-train" that will make them better traders, to help them "avoid injury" (as in lose money ) and "increase performance" (as in make money )? My answer: Play Poker! Yes, Poker and Trading are both "sedentary" activities where you are sitting at a desk or table. It is the brain that needs to be toned, limbered up, and made flexible, not the body. (Though you need to make sure your body is healthy too!) So it is safe to say that the peak performance trader needs a mental cross-training routine, not necessarily a physical one. So why is Poker the ideal cross-training exercise for traders? 1: Poker Teaches Risk Management Unless you're a novice or not seriously playing in a virtual poker App, there's little chance you will go "All In" at the poker table. I can count on one hand the number of times I went "all in" and I won every time. Such opportunities rarely happen. When I did move my pile of chips to the center of the table it was because I knew what was in my hand. I "managed my risk". Likewise, the trader or investor should almost never go "all-in", putting their entire account into asset X, Y, or Z because "the market will market" on you and you will lose it all. In trading terms, you can very easily "blow up your account."  As Kenny Rogers says, "You've got to know when to hold'em... and know when to fold'em." Good risk management requires that even if you lose say, 5 times in a row, you will live to trade another day. I frequently talk about never risking more than 1% of your account on any single trade . A 5% loss is easy to recover from with two 3-R wins, or one 7-R win. Likewise in poker, with a $100 buy-in, you usually have $1 antes, allowing you to play up to 100 hands (even if you were the worst poker player in the world) risking only 1% per hand. In poker, only if the "odds are in your favor", that is, you have two-pair, or you have three or four-of-a-kind, or a straight, would you consider raising the stakes to 2, 5, or even 10% of your bankroll. If you can make 20R from a 4R "risk" with the odds in your favor, you are now thinking like a professional trader where Risk Management is "Job One". 2: Poker Teaches Emotional Management I like to teach that our goal as a trader is to be totally mechanical - totally rules-based. Our goal is to "Trade like a Vulcan" or "Trade like Spock: Trade long and prosper!" What's the poker analogy? Having a " Poker Face ". Or as the old antiperspirant commercial said, "Never let'em see you sweat."  We may have an awesome hand, but we can't display a "woo-hoo" face because no one will bet against us. We may have a terrible hand, but we can't put up a "oh, good grief!" face and let others know that they have even the slightest chance of beating us. We have to play every hand waiting for the last card drawn (the river) because that last card can make or break what we are holding in our hand. And very often it is that last card dealt, "the river", that can make or break a poker hand. 3: Poker Teaches You to Play the Probabilities Growing up in Brooklyn, New York, I remember the famous slogan from the New York Lottery: "You gotta be in it to win it!" They threatened (coerced?) every New Yorker with "fear of loss" if they didn't play the lotto... "Well, yeah, we all know the odds of you winning are are actually close to zero, but of you don't play then they really are zero so you better play or you will feel more like the loser than you already are!" Thankfully, the odds in winning at Poker are much higher than winning a set of numbers printed on ping-pong balls, which teaches you that when you have an "edge"... when you have a "system" that has the odds in your favor (a winning trading system) you can't try to outsmart the system – you need to play every hand that meets the criteria of your system.  As hockey great Wayne Gretzky said, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." So as Poker players and as traders, we have to play every hand, or every trade that appears that meets our trading plan's criteria, otherwise if we try to "outsmart the market" we will lose every time. And more often than not, even with a terrible hand, say a 2 and 4 of spades, you might find that if you don't fold, every once in a while three spades will appear on the table giving you one of the high-probability hands: the flush . So play every hand . And in trading, take every trade opportunity that appears that qualifies under your rules-based trading system. 4: Poker Teaches You To Stay Humble My poker buddies and I play every month or so. Early in my tenure when I learned to play poker I realized "Hey, I'm pretty good at this.... I'm gauging the probabilities, I'm keeping my risk-per-hand low, I'm taking small profit after small profit and leaving with twice the money I bought in for or more. Drinks are on me!" Then I got cocky... Walking into game four I thought to myself "I'm the Vulcan, emotionless, rules-based, odds-calculating poker player, right?" And that night my proverbial hat was handed to me. It was one of the worst games I'd played to that point. I over-bid, I bluffed (something I had never done before and my opponents knew it!), and I raised bets on hands I know I should have folded. I re-bought in after losing my original buy-in and lost all of that! And I went home with a valuable lesson: Don't think you can out-smart the probabilities.  The reason we win at poker is the same reason we win at trading. We must always play the odds, we must never play the low probability hands, we must always keep our emotions get the best of us, and when it's time to fold, it's time to fold!" Last week our poker group met again. I bought in for $50 and left with $135. In trading parlance, that was a 170% return. I was grateful. I learned my lesson. I've got to stay humble and let the hand come to me, let the trade come to me, and never think I can out-smart the table or the market. 5: Poker Teaches You To Set a Financial Target One of the reasons that casinos give their players free drinks, free upgrades to already expensive suites, and free food is they know that "the more you play, the more you'll pay." You can be up $5,000 for the night, then go get yourself some free lobster tails paired with filet mignon, a bottle of wine, and a decadent dessert. Then you return to the tables all fat, happy, and lubricated and proceed to hand all your winnings back to the House.  I know more than one poker player who has a rule: "When I double my money, I'm done . I may walk in with $500, and when I'm $500 to the positive, I quit and go on to enjoy the rest of my night, otherwise I'll just give it all back." Similarly, I know many a trader (yours truly included) who may have been up a sizable amount wonderfully early in the trading session, then proceed to give all those winnings back to the market an hour or so later. Setting a daily "win" will prevent you from getting mentally "fat and sassy" where you will become overconfident and then hand your winnings back to the market.  As a Poker player, you may want to make a certain amount of money per game. As a trader, you might want a daily amount of "R" or dollar amount to the positive. In either case, when you hit your goal, even if it's in the first 20 minutes of the trading session you need to close all open trades and enjoy the fact that you did what 90% likely did not do that day: end the day in the green! On other words, "Quit while you're ahead!" 6: Poker Player Are Part of a Vibrant Community Full of Fun People! Like traders, the number of people who are committed to improving their poker game are few. We need to belong to a strong community of passionate poker players to perfect our craft just as we need to belong to a strong community of passionate (and profitable) traders in order to continually perfect our skill at taking money from the markets each and every day. There are online poker communities you can join (think: Simulated Trading) and there are global in-person Poker communities that can link you up with other players once you're ready to "go live". These communities are generally free to join and will help you build up the skill to become a proficient and profitable Poker player which, more importantly, will help you become an even more proficient and profitable trader.  Is there anything else about Poker that you think needs to be added to the list? Leave a comment below.  As always, Trade well! (And maybe I'll see you at the table!)
NYSE:GEEducation
by ocaptain
3
Processing Spreads Provide Fundamental CluesSome futures markets offer contracts that are related to others and are processed products of the commodity. Understanding the price relationships, history, and paths of least resistance of the processed product versus the original input can provide valuable insight into supply and demand fundamentals. Moreover, these relationships shed light on other related assets. Market structures are the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle Processing spreads are real-time supply and demand barometers The soybean crush spread Gasoline and distillate crack spreads Monitoring corporate profits There is so much data at our fingertips, but we need to understand how to use and interpret the information. Processing spreads are invaluable tools as they are critical variables for market calculus when forecasting the path of least resistance of prices. The crude oil and soybean futures markets offer liquid futures contracts in products that can reveal significant trends, warning signs, and calls to action. Anyone who undertakes a home improvement project knows that the job will not go well without the correct tools. Trying to hammer in a nail with a screwdriver is far from optimal. Tightening a bolt with an ax is a disaster. The best tool leads to the optimal result. The processing spread is one of the most critical tools in my investment and trading toolbox. Market structure are the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle In the world of commodities, market structure are integral pieces of a puzzle. When put together, they provide clues about the path of least resistance of prices as they reflect and can be real-time indicators of supply and demand fundamentals. A commodity’s market structure includes: Term structure- Price differentials for nearby versus deferred delivery periods. Location differentials- Price differentials for delivery of a raw material in different regions. Quality differentials- Price differentials for differing grades, sizes, or composition of the same commodity. Substitution spreads- The price comparison of one commodity for another that can serve as a substitute. Processing spreads- The margin or differential for refining or transforming one commodity into its products. Together, the various pieces that comprise a market’s structure create a picture that often points to higher or lower price paths. Processing spreads are real-time supply and demand barometers The processing spread is one of the valuable tools in an analysts’ toolbox. It tells us if demand for the products is rising or falling. Consumers often require the processed product instead of the raw commodity. The differential between prices of the input, the commodity, and the output, the product, is a critical fundamental measure. Narrowing processing spreads signal falling demand while widening spreads are a sign that supplies are not keeping pace with requirements. Since futures contracts prices are constantly changing, processing spreads can be volatile. When the commodity and product trade in the futures market, the differentials provide a unique supply and demand perspective for traders and investors. There can be many reasons for price variance in processing spreads. However, comparing them to historical levels can serve as real-time indicators of fundamental forces that determine the underlying commodity’s price direction when exogenous factors are not impacting the overall refining or treatment process. Many commodities do not offer futures contracts in the products. The soybean and crude oil markets are exceptions. The soybean crush spread Soybean futures trade on the CME’s CBOT division. Soybean products, soybean meal, and soybean oil also trade in the futures markets on the CBOT with separate and independent futures contracts. Soybean meal is a critical ingredient in animal feed, while soybean oil is cooking oil. Both have other uses. Processors crush raw soybeans into the two products; the oil is the liquid from the crushing process, while the meal is the solid substance. The soybean crush spread can be highly volatile. The monthly chart shows the soybean crush spread over the past fifteen years. The spread traded to a low of a quarter of one cent to as high as $2.1950. The low was in 2013 when soybean futures were trending lower from the all-time high in 2012 at $17.9475 per bushel. The high was in October 2014 when soybean futures were consolidating at lower levels. The move to the high was because consumers bought soybean products at lower prices around the $10 per bushel level. More recently, the crush spread signaled that soybean futures had run out of downside steam. After trading to a high of $16.7725 per bushel in May 2021, the oilseed futures fell below $12 in October. When soybeans were on the high in May, the crush fell to a low of 52.75 cents. At high soybean prices, consumers backed off buying the oilseed products, leading to a price correction that took the price below the $12 per bushel level in October. Meanwhile, falling prices caused demand for products to return. The crush spreads traded to the most recent high at $1.9050 during the week of October 18. The rising crush spread was a sign of robust demand that lifted the raw soybean futures from the recent low. The November soybean futures chart shows the rise from a low of $11.8450 to the $12.50 level. The price action in the crush spread was a signal that demand for products would lift the soybean futures price. The processing spread action signaled the price bottom over the past weeks. Gasoline and distillate crack spreads Crude oil refiners process the raw energy commodity that powers the world into products, gasoline, and distillates. The NYMEX futures market trades contracts in crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil. Heating oil is a distillate fuel that is a proxy for other distillates, including jet and diesel fuels. Refineries process crude oil into the oil products by heating them to different temperatures in a catalytic cracker. The price differential between the input, crude oil, and the output, the products, are “crack spreads.” Rising crack spreads point to increasing demand for oil products. When they fall, it is a sign of oversupply or weak demand. Crude oil futures reached lows in April 2020 during the height of the global pandemic’s impact on markets across all asset classes. The NYMEX crude oil futures weekly chart highlights the bullish trend since April 2020 as the energy commodity has made higher lows and higher highs. The weekly chart of the gasoline crack spreads highlights the bullish trend since March 2020. Gasoline is a seasonal commodity that tends to reach highs during the spring and summer months and decline during the winter as drivers tend to put more mileage on their cars during the warm months. However, at the $17.63 per barrel level at the end of last week, the gasoline crack spread was appreciable higher than the peak in October 2020, when it reached $11.62 per barrel. The gasoline crack spread has provided bullish validation for the path of least resistance of crude oil’s price. The weekly heating oil or distillate crack spread chart also displays a bullish trend. Distillates tend to be less seasonal than gasoline as jet and diesel requirements are year-round. At the $22.53 per barrel level at the end of last week, the heating oil crack was far higher than its October 2020 peak at $9.96 per barrel. The crack spreads have supported the rising crude oil price as they point to robust product demand. Monitoring corporate profits While processing spreads can provide insight into the path of least resistance of prices for commodities that are inputs, they are also real-time earnings indicators for companies that refine or process the raw commodities into the products. Refiners or processors tend to buy the input at market prices and sell products at market prices. The refiners and processors make significant capital investments in refineries or other processing equipment. They make or lose money on the processing spread. When they widen, they experience a profit bonanza; when they fall, times can get rough. When the spreads rise above the cost of the process, profits rise. Low processing spread levels can lead to losses. Valero (VLO) is a company that refines crude oil into oil products. The chart shows that the high in October 2020 was at $44.88 per share. In October 2021, VLO was over the $80 level at the end of last week. Rising crack spreads have lifted profits for the oil refiner. Archer Daniel Midland (ADM) and Bunge Ltd. (BG) are leading agricultural processors. Soybean processing is one of the many business lines for the two companies. The rising soybean crush spreads have lifted profits for the companies. In October 2020, ADM shares reached a high of $52.05 per share. At the end of last week, the stock was at the $66.22 level. BG shares reached a high of $60.50 in October 2020 and were trading at the $88.33 level at the end of last week. The rise soybean crush spreads at least partially supported rising profits and higher share prices for ADM and BG. Processing spreads are real-time indicators for the demand of the commodities that are the inputs. They are also real-time earnings barometers for companies that process commodities into products. Any tool that improves your ability to analyze markets is worth keeping in that toolbelt. --- The full article and spread charts are available using the link below. You can also sign up for the Monday Night Strategy Call below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYSE:VLOEducation
by Andy_Hecht
3
The most important words you need to know in fundamentalsHello everyone 😃 Before we start to discuss, I would be glad if your share your opinion on this post and hit the like button if you enjoyed it ! What Is Fundamental Analysis? Fundamental analysis (FA) is a method of measuring a security's intrinsic value by examining related economic and financial factors. Fundamental analysts study anything that can affect the security's value, from macroeconomic factors such as the state of the economy and industry conditions to microeconomic factors like the effectiveness of the company's management. The end goal is to arrive at a number that an investor can compare with a security's current price in order to see whether the security is undervalued or overvalued. This method of stock analysis is considered to be in contrast to technical analysis, which forecasts the direction of prices through an analysis of historical market data such as price and volume. Now you know what is fundamental analysis, But before you start to learn more about it, Its better to know the important words that authors use in their articles ! 📚 On this Article you'll learn about 25 of them and we'll continue to post the other in next educational posts; It's easier for you to read and remember ! 1. Assets: Capital that is frozen as in property, real estate or possession. 2. Bearish: The falling trend of assets and shares in markets. 3. Bonds: Governmental bonds that ensure a fixed rate of interest in often long term investment. 4. Boycott: To protest by refusing to purchase from someone, or otherwise do business with them. In international trade, a boycott most often takes the form of refusal to import a country's goods. 5. Bribe: A payment made to a person, often a government official such as a customs officer, to induce them to treat the payer favorably. 6. Broker's fee: The fee for a transaction charged by an intermediary in a market, such as a bank in a foreign-exchange transaction. 7. Bubble economy: Term for an economy in which the presence of one or more bubbles in its asset markets is a dominant feature of its performance. 8. Bubble: A rise in the price of an asset based not on the current or prospective income that it provides but solely on expectations by market participants that the price will rise in the future. When those expectations cease, the bubble bursts and the price falls rapidly. 9. Budget deficit: The negative of the budget surplus; thus the excess of expenditure over income. 10. Budget surplus: Refers in general to an excess of income over expenditure, but usually refers specifically to the government budget, where it is the excess of tax revenue over expenditure (including transfer and interest payments). 11. Bullish: A rising trend in the significant increase of funds and shares in the stock market. 12. Capital: the large amount of money or investment. 13. Capital loss: The loss in value that the owner of an asset experiences when the price of the asset falls, including when the currency in which the asset is denominated depreciates. It contrasts with capital gain. 14. Cartel: An agreement among, or an organization of, suppliers of a product. A group of firms that seeks to raise the price of a good by restricting its supply. The term is usually used for international groups, especially involving state-owned firms and/or governments. 15. Cash dividend: Cash distribution of earnings to stockholders, usually on a quarterly basis. 16. Commodity: Could refer to any good, but in a trade context a commodity is usually a raw material or primary product that enters into international trade, such as metals (tin, manganese) or basic agricultural products (coffee, cocoa). 17. Compensation: whoever violates agreement rules must compensate other countries by lowering tariffs or making other concessions, or be subject to retaliation. 18. (CSR) Corporate social responsibility: The responsibilities that corporations have to workers and their families, to consumers, to investors, and to the natural environment. 19. Corporation: Form of business organization that is created as a distinct legal person composed of one or more actual individuals or legal entities. Primary advantages of a corporation include limited liability, ease of ownership, transfer, and perpetual succession. A business form legally separate from its owners. Its distinguishing features include limited liability, easy transfer of ownership, unlimited life, and an ability to raise large sums of capital. 20. Decline: The falling of stocks or prices in the market. 21. Breakout: The breakout of a virus or the breakout of a war. 📚 There's a difference between this breakout with the breakout we call in chart analyzing ! 22. Minutes: The report from a meeting. (minutes from Fed’s meeting will be released) 23. Consolidate: The prices are reaching a plateau and becoming more stable. (the prices are consolidating) 24. Stimulus measure: The government is giving the banks a stimulus measure to be bailed out for the financial crisis. 25. Retreat: The management is retreating from their initial position to deduct the salary of the workers. (it's an example of retreat) 📍 We'll continue this series of educational posts in next days, STAY TUNED and don't forget to follow this idea, So you'll be notified after I post the new one... Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support us with your likes and comments 😉🙋🏼‍♂️ Have a good day! @Helical_Trades
NSENG:ACADEMYEducation
by Helical_Trades
11
What Is A Buy & Sell Stop Order?Both Buy and Sell Stop Orders are trade order set before current price hits those orders and gets you into a new trade. Buy Stop Order: An order that is executed at a specific predetermined price that is above the current price. Sell Stop Order: An order that is executed at a specific predetermined price that is below the current price. NEVER chases price when making a Forex trade, let price action come to your entry by setting either a Buy or Sell stop order. Then make sure you set your stop loss and targets at that time too. A.C.E. Strategy is: 1) Alert candle 2) Confirm candle 3) Enter candle
Education
by Anbat
Learn more about TradingView coinsHave you ever wanted to show your appreciation for an idea but felt that hitting the like button was just not enough? TradingView coins are a great way to show other users that you appreciate them! What are TradingView coins? TradingView coins are the site's internal currency. 1 coin is equal to $0.01 USD How can you get them? Refer a friend : When you refer a friend to TradingView, you both will get TradingView coins after they upgrade to one of our paid plans. Receive donations from other users: TradingView users can give coins for great content, to say thank you, if they're feeling generous, or for any other reason. Buy Coins: You can buy coins in batches of 500, 1,000, or 5,000. This can be done by opening the user menu and choosing "Coins". (Your current coin balance, donation history and other coin info is also shown here) Great! Now that you have your TradingView Coin treasure, how can you use it? Cheer someone : Cheer is a great way to show your support for users that you like. The size of your coin sending is fixed on our site with the following values: 100, 200, 350, or 500 coins. These values are equivalent to $1, $2, $3.50, and $5 USD. This feature is available for all users. Cheer an idea by using the "Comment with a cheer" button to send your message with some TradingView coins Cheer a user from their profile by selecting "Cheer" in the upper corner of their profile page. Purchase a paid plan : You can spend TradingView Coins on either our 1 month or 1 year paid plans. For example, 3000 coins is access up to 1 month of our PRO+ plan, one of our most popular options. Note that if you already have an active plan, you can add a month or a year of the same type with coins. Upgrades for coins are not supported. TradingView Coin Pro-Tip TradingView moderators, managers and staff give coins for ideas chosen as Editor's Picks, great scripts, ideas and other exceptional content all the time. They can be identified by the TradingView logo badge or "Mod" badge next to their name. Learn more about TradingView coins in our Help Center .
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by TradingView
23
The Importance Of Back-Testing Part 1When it comes to trading the financial markets (any market), back-testing your strategies is an absolute must. Although past performance does not guarantee future results, back-testing your strategy cannot be skipped or rushed if you wish to be a consistently profitable trader. Back-testing can be done many different ways today. There are many good software’s & trading platforms with available back-testing tools however, I personally prefer to use a spreadsheet as they are fully customizable & require you to fully understand the operation and function of the data you compile and your strategies performance. In my personal experience, I have found that traders who use software’s as opposed to manually back-testing each trade one by one, have a much more difficult time remaining consistently profitable. One of the effective benefits of manually back-testing your strategies is that you will be training your eyes to spot your specific Conditions & Criteria’s for entry along with getting a feel for the characteristics & movements of the market you are trading. You can manually back-test your strategies by going to your chart and scrolling as far to the left as you would like. Next you will slowly scroll one candle at a time to the right, until you see your setup. Once you see your setup, you should stop and enter the details of the trade into your back-testing tool. After you have entered the details of the trade into your spreadsheet, you should continue scrolling to see the results of the trade. Enter the results of the trade and continue scrolling right until you see your next setup. Your trading timeframe will determine how far back in time you can go for your back-testing. For example if you are using the 60 min chart as your trading timeframe, you should be able to test several years of trades whereas if you are using the 5 min chart as your trading timeframe, you may only be able to test several months of trades. I mainly trade using the 4hr and 60 min charts therefore I personally start my back-testing process by testing 1 years worth of trades. If I am happy with the results of the 1 years worth of tested trades, then I will typically restart the process of back-testing that strategy- going as far back In time as possible. I like to have 3+ years of back-tested trades before I will begin forward testing the strategy & then ultimately trading the strategy live. If you are unsure about the amount of time that you should back-test for your strategy, you can safely make this decision using the amount of trades instead- For example, I recommend back-testing AT LEAST 100 trades. I personally will not begin forward testing a strategy with any less. If the strategy proves profitable after 100 trades, I like to back-test as many as possible. There is no such thing as to much back-testing.  It is very important that we do not cheat during this process. Do your absolute best to scroll slowly as you proceed to avoid seeing the results of the trade before you have made the decision to enter. We must be honest in our approach to testing a strategy, in order to get the most accurate data & results possible. It is easy to see what happens next by accident & convince ourselves why we would or would not have taken that specific trade anyway. Be sure to follow your detailed conditions & criteria’s for entry as this will eliminate making discretional decisions. The purpose of pre-defined conditions and criteria’s for entry is to minimize the decision making process as much as possible. Please understand that cheating during this process is ultimately skewing the results of the strategy as well as cheating yourself! Back-testing serves many purposes to a professional trader & takes up a large portion of their work week as we are always looking for ways to improve our existing strategies and/or develop new, more efficient ones. This stage is also crucial to your confidence in your strategy which ultimately leads to being disciplined and following your set guidelines for the strategy you are using. Your confidence and discipline to your strategy will come into play during periods of “Drawdown" What Is Drawdown? Drawdown is an extended period of time that a traders account experiences loss or no increase in account balance. In other words, drawdown is a losing streak OR a period of time that the account makes no gain or loss. No matter how good a strategy is, it will eventually experience a losing streak. It is extremely important that we measure the severity of these drawdowns otherwise known as "Max Drawdown". Drawdowns can vary from strategy to strategy however as an example, my strategy typically experiences 1-2 drawdowns per year and the average length of these drawdowns are around 30-40 days long. Back-testing can really help maintain emotional stability & psychological logic during these prolonged periods of drawdown. If you begin to feel doubt while these periods of time are occurring, you may go back to your back-testing results to reassure yourself that it is normal for the strategy to not achieve a profit OR even lose a certain amount of money over the course of however long your results show on average. After we have completed 3 years worth of back-testing or at least 100 trades, you will be able to go back and see periods of time (typically 1-2 months) that the account made no money at all or even lost money. As an example- the strategy shown below carries an 11% Max Drawdown over the course of 3 years worth of trading, meaning that at some point during 3 years worth of trading, my account may experience a 11% loss from its current value at that time. This period of time is normal and as long as we do not exceed this Max Drawdown by more than 1 or 2%, we should continue trading our strategy without taking a further look to evaluate whether the strategy is outdated and needs adjusting or if we made trading related errors. looking at the date in the top left (10/4/2018) & Date at bottom right (11/5/2018), we can see that the strategy produced little to no gain over the course of this 32 days. When first starting out as a trader, this can be extremely difficult to deal with. 32 days can feel like a very long time while it is occurring but DO NOT give up on your strategy if it has shown to be profitable throughout your back and forward testing period!! This is where most inexperienced traders begin making mistakes, breaking their rules or change up strategies thinking the one they are using doesn’t work when in fact, this is 100% normal for EVERY strategy. This is where discipline comes into play. If you do not remain disciplined and stick to your strategy/rules during these periods of time, your lack of discipline will lead to inconsistent results & ultimately failure. Lets look at what happened right after this drawdown was finished had you stayed discipline. (See Image Below) In the following 47 days, the strategy managed to produce nearly a 90% gain! I am not saying these are the same results you will get, the point I am trying to make is to not jump from strategy to strategy or start making irrational decisions because of these periods of time. I have seen to many new traders destroy themselves because of drawdown or throw away an amazing strategy because they were unaware and uninformed about these periods of drawdown or because they chose not to back-test a strategy before using it to trade with live money. It is crucial that you extensively test anything you wish to use in the markets before using it. Take the time to feel those losses as if they were real and they were occurring in real time. Don't take anyone's word or back-testing results as your own, simply put the time in to this process yourself & you will find that your perspective of trading changes dramatically. You will start to treat this as a business and you will be one step closer to consistently profitable trading. Note: Back-testing a strategy must be done for each market you plan to trade. For example, your strategy may be profitable on EUR/USD however that does not mean it is profitable on any other currency pair or in any market in general. Be sure to back-test the strategy for each market you wish to trade as strategy results may vary widely from market to market. As a consistently profitable trader for the better half of a decade, the best advice I can give and the one thing I want you to take away from this post is- Always be sure to extensively back-test any trading strategy you plan to use in the markets. Without this step, you are essentially trading blind & will have an extremely hard time with your trading psychology & consistency. The software's out there today have a purpose when used correctly but I highly recommend using a more manual approach. It forces you to understand your strategy while training your eyes to spot your setups. Some Data Points You May Want To Gather For Strategy Optimization- I hope this was helpful for you, please leave a comment and let us know what your back-testing process looks like, and how you go about optimizing your trading strategies.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Alec40
9
Why Implied Volatility Is A Critical Tool For All TradersTraders and investors use different sets of tools when approaching markets. Some are fundamentalists, pouring through balance sheets, supply and demand data, and other macro and microeconomic information to predict the future prices of assets. Others have a strictly technical approach to markets, following trends and the path of least resistance of prices. Still, others combine the two to look for opportunities where fundamental and technical analysis merge to improve the chances of success. The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator The primary variable determining put and call option prices The three critical factors implied volatility reveals Yogi Berra, the hall of fame catcher and armchair philosopher, once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” All market participants have the same goal, to increase their nest eggs. Projecting the future is the route to achieve their goal. Implied volatility is a tool that all market participants need to embrace as it is a real-time indicator of market sentiment. The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors History depends on interpretation. When it comes to markets, Napoleon Bonaparte may have said it best, “history is a set of lies agreed upon.” An asset’s price moved higher or lower in the past because of a collection of variables viewed through a prism that leads to a collective conclusion that has broad acceptance but may not be accurate. Taking a risk-based position on an inaccurate conclusion could lead to mistakes and losses. When we consider buying or selling any asset, all that matters is the present. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level a seller is willing to accept and a buyer is willing to pay in a transparent environment, the market. Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices Historical volatility is an objective statistical tool that defines the price variance of the past. Any disclosure document tells us that past performance is no guaranty of future performance. We must view historical volatility precisely the same way, with more than a grain of salt. Historical volatility is a guide, but remember what Yogi said, “the future ain’t what it used to be!” We calculate historical volatility by determining the average deviation from the average price over a given period. When it comes to math, the formulas are: A simple explanation of the complicated formula comes in seven easy steps: 1. Collect the historical prices for the asset 2. Compute the expected price (mean) of the historical prices. 3. Work out the difference between the average price and each price in the series. 4. Square the differences from the previous step. 5. Determine the sum of the squared differences. 6. Divide the differences by the total number of prices (find variance). 7. Compute the square root of the variance computed in the previous step. Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator While we can calculate historical volatility from historical data, implied volatility is a different story. Implied volatility is the expected or projected volatility or price variance of an asset over time. We back into calculating implied volatility using an options pricing model. We can establish an implied volatility reading by entering the option value into the Black-Scholes options pricing formula or other formulas that determine options prices. If we have a put or call options price, we can solve for the implied volatility level. The Black-Scholes formula in mathematical notation is: The primary variable determining put and call option prices There are no option prices without implied volatility as it is the critical variable that determines put and call option values. Yogi also said, “You can observe a lot by watching.” The current implied volatility level is the market’s consensus perception of what volatility or price variance will be during the life of the put or call option. Observing and watching reveals the constant changes in implied volatility levels, which can be highly volatile over time. Option traders call an option’s sensitivity to changes in implied volatility Vega, which measures the change in an option price for a one-point change in implied volatility. Implied volatility is constantly changing. Yogi had another great saying, “If the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be,” which rings true for implied volatility which can change in the blink of an eye. Option traders pay lots of attention to their Vega risk as the volatility of implied volatility can be…highly volatile! How’s that for a tongue twister? The three critical factors implied volatility reveals Implied volatility is a valuable tool for all traders and investors for three significant reasons: It is a real-time indicator of the market’s perception of the future price range of an asset. It can change suddenly, and changes often occur before the price of an asset reacts, making implied volatility a leading indicator. Implied volatility reflects the wisdom of the crowd, and crowds tend to make better decisions than individuals. Moreover, it is reading that reflects the present, not the past, and is a constantly changing measure of consensus forecasts for the future. As traders and investors, we exist in the present. We attempt to increase our wealth with long and short risk positions that either add or subtract from our nest egg in the future. Implied volatility is a critical measure we should understand, utilize, and always keep in our toolbox. Any project requires the right tools. Implied volatility’s value is that it reflects a snapshot of the current market’s consensus. Historical volatility depends on “Deja vu” happening “all over again.” Implied volatility is a measure that understands that the “future ain’t what it used to be.” ----- Register for our Monday Night Call using the link below. You can view this full article (with specific examples) and get early access to future articles for free using the other link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
ICEUS:CT1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
18
Trading Basics | Your Main Trading Time Frame ⏳ Hey traders, You frequently ask me what is the most important time frame to analyze and follow. And even though I must admit that multiple time frames must be taken into consideration for successful trading like weekly/daily/4h/1h. Among them, there is the one that is universally considered to be principal. That is a daily time frame. There are a lot of reasons why so many traders rely on a daily time frame: 1️⃣ - Daily time frame shows a global market trend at the same time reflecting a mid-term and short-term perspective letting the trader catch trend following moves and spot early reversal signs. 2️⃣ - Covering multiple perspectives, daily time frame is the foundation of the majority of the trading strategies being the main source of key levels & pattern analysis. 3️⃣ - Daily time filters out news events that happened during the trading day. It shows the composite reaction of the market participants to all the data posted in the economic calendar. 4️⃣ - Daily time frame reflects all trading sessions. Within one single candle, we see the outcome of the Asian, London, and New York Sessions. 5️⃣ - Daily candle filters out all the noise from lower time frames & intraday price fluctuations and sudden spikes & rejections. 6️⃣ - Covering all the trading sessions, daily time frame mirrors the activities of big players like hedge funds and banks. Showing us the flow & direction of big money. ⚠️Being so important for analysis, do not neglect other time frames. The most accurate trading decision can be made only relying on a combination of intraday and daily time frames. What is your favorite time frame to trade? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
26
Engulfing Candle Trading Strategy (How To Spot & Trade Them)Engulfing Candles, due to their distinct characteristics, provide potential reversal signals for Forex traders Here’s how to spot and trade them... Bullish Engulfing Candle: (Chart example) 1) Down Trend 2) Bearish Candle 3) Open At Or Below The Previous Close 4) Bullish Candle 5) Close At Or Above The Previous Open 6) Close Preferably Near The High Aggressive Trader- Market Order With Stop Below Engulfing Candle and Conservative Trader- Set Buy Order When PA hits it Above Engulfing Wick With Stop Below Engulfing Candle. Yes, would be revered for a Bearish Engulfing Candle setup. Bearish Engulfing Candles: 1) Up Trend 2) Bullish Candle 3) Open At Or Above The Previous Close 4) Bearish Candle 5) Close At Or Below The Previous Open 6) Close Preferably Near The Low
Education
by Anbat
1
Analyst and Trader. What are the differences? The main difference between an Analyst and a Trader is in their main goals. For an analyst, the main goal is to determine the future price and write articles. Most analysts give a double trend direction in their forecasts, as they worry about their incorrect forecast, and hedge in case of their mistake. For a trader, the main goal is to MAKE a PROFIT when working in the market. At the same time, the direction of the trend is a secondary goal, since you can also make a profit by scalping when the trend does not matter much. Each trader has his approach to trading and his trading strategy. One trader opens a long position to earn money on the growth of quotations, but at the same time, another trader opens a short position on the same instrument to earn money when the price drops. PROFIT is the main priority for the trader. The analyst can show alternative options for the development of events, leaving the trader to make a responsible decision about actions in one or another option. At the same time, the Analyst does not risk anything - neither his money nor his reputation, since TWO OPPOSITE scenarios insure him from making a mistake. As a rule, 65% of analysts do not trade themselves, but only write analytical articles and make forecasts. A few facts about the analyst and trader: Analyst: - collects information and analyzes the market situation - writes analytical articles - makes forecasts (usually in two directions, for safety) - probably trades/invests by himself according to his forecasts Trader: - determines the direction for a potential transaction - performs risk calculation and installation of a protective order (stop loss) - performs trading operations on the market to make a profit - manages and accompanies the position from the beginning to the end And who do you think you are? An analyst or a trader? ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
7
Fibonacci Extension Tool (How To Use)How To Use The Fibonacci Extension Tool: Bearish example (like Chart) A) Highest Top Point B) Reversal Bottom Point C) 2nd Highest Top Point (Note) Can NOT be higher then A Point. D) Will be 3 points or targets, 1st target at 50% extension, 2nd target at 100% extension & 3rd target at 150% extension. The rules for take profit orders are very individual, but most traders use it as follows: A 50, 61.8 or 78.6 retracement will often go to the 161 Fibonacci extension after breaking through the 0%-level. A 38.2 retracement will often come to a halt at the 138 Fibonacci extension. Fibonacci extensions to the price moves. As you can see, the extensions provided great places for take profit orders. Conclusion: Fibonaccis are multi-functional This demonstrated how to use Fibonaccis efficiently in trading. Don’t make the mistake of idealizing Fibonacci s and believing that they are superior over other tools and methods. Fibonacci is a great tool to have and can be used very effectively as another confirmation method. Whether you are a trend following or a support and resistance trader, or just looking for ideas how to place your take profit orders, Fibonaccis are a great addition to your arsenal.
Education
by Anbat
FX Compounding Calculator (Do You Want To Be A Millionaire?) Only one way to grow a small account into a large account. That is by treating Forex trading as a marathon race not a sprint race. Do you have 2 to 5 years? You can use the compounding calculator to calculate profits. This allows you to understand better, how your trading account will grow over time. One of the most interesting facts about compounding is, that even a moderate monthly gain turns your initial capital into a serious amount of money over time. A Forex compounding calculator is useful to simulate how compounding the initial equity and the profitable trades, with a set gain percentage, can make a trading account grow over time. It works by simulating the compounding and the reinvesting of the same chosen gain percentage of the account's total equity. With this calculator traders can input the settings in order to accurately calculate the compounding results of a set of winning trades over a period of time. The use of this calculator can demonstrate traders how powerful gains compounding can be, and, that even a moderate gain percentage of 2% (for example) per trade, can turn an account’s initial capital into a substantial amount of capital over time. You will be surprised how powerful compounding can be. My goal is profit at least 1% per trade and/or 1% per session/day. Look at chart: You Can Do It- by letting your account grow with compounding profits < this is the holy grail of building your account. Albert Einstein said,"“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.”
Education
by Anbat
1
How To: Build Your Own Private Signals Service Using TradingViewMany traders - especially beginners - rely on others to tell them what stocks to trade and when to place their entries and their exits. What I want to show you is not so much how to trade or what strategy to use, but once you have found a strategy that YOU like, how to set up this strategy in TradingView and get automated alerts when a stock meets your criteria. This video covers: How to setup your TradingView Chart How to add built-in or custom TradingView Indicators to your chart How to customise those indicators How to find stocks that match your criteria using the TradingView Screener How to save your set up How to set up a TradingView Alert How to get alerts sent to your phone or email or screen How to check TradingView News to see what catalyst might have caused the alert How to use TradingView Text Notes Hope the video was useful.
NASDAQ:OCGNEducation
by zAngus
66
Candlestick Chart Part 2 : ReversalsHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ Today's video will be about the Candlestick Chart : Reversal Patterns. So lets start by talking about the different types of Patterns : Bullish Reversal Patterns Bearish Reversal Patterns And they are divided into 3 groups : Weak Patterns Reliable Patterns Strong Patterns We Start with the Weak Reversals : 1) Dragonfly Pattern : A dragonfly doji candlestick is a candlestick pattern with the open, close, and high prices of an asset at the same level. A dragonfly doji pattern does not appear constantly. It is used as a technical indicator that signals a potential reversal of the asset’s price. 2) Hammer & Hanging Man Patterns : The Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that forms during a downtrend. It is named because the market is hammering out a bottom. When the price is falling, hammers signal that the bottom is near and the price will start rising again. The long lower shadow indicates that sellers pushed prices lower, but buyers were able to overcome this selling pressure and closed near the open. The Hanging Man is a bearish reversal pattern that can also mark a top or strong resistance level. When the price is rising, the formation of a Hanging Man indicates that sellers are beginning to outnumber buyers. The long lower shadow shows that sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Buyers were able to push the price back up some but only near the open. 3) Inverted Hammer & Shooting Star Patterns : The Inverted Hammer occurs when the price has been falling suggests the possibility of a reversal. Its long upper shadow shows that buyers tried to bid the price higher. However, sellers saw what the buyers were doing, said "No!" and attempted to push the price back down. The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that looks identical to the inverted hammer but occurs when the price has been rising. Its shape indicates that the price opened at its low, rallied, but pulled back to the bottom. 4) Dark Cloud Pattern : A 2-candle pattern. The first candle is bullish and has a long body. The second candlestick should open significantly above the first one’s closing level and close below 50% of the first candlestick’s body. The sell signal is moderately strong. 5) Piercing Pattern : A 2-candle pattern. The first candlestick is long and bearish. The second candlestick opens with a gap down, below the closing level of the first one. It’s a big bullish candlestick, which closes above the 50% of the first candle’s body. Both bodies should be long enough. 6) Upside Gap Three Method : The upside gap three methods candlestick pattern is a bearish continuation pattern that only occurs during an uptrend. It consists of three candles. The first two candles are long and white in the direction of the prevailing trend. The second black candle creates an upside gap. The third candle fills the gap between the first and the second candle. 7) Downside Gap Three Method : The downside gap three methods candlestick pattern appears during a downtrend and consists of three candles. The first two candles have a gap down between them while the third candle covers the gap between the first two. The gap between the first two candles simply gets filled. 8) Bearish Harami Pattern : A 2-candle pattern. The body of the second candle is completely contained within the body of the first one and has the opposite color. 9) Bullish Herami Pattern : A 2-candle pattern. The body of the second candle is completely contained within the body of the first one and has the opposite color. Now Lets Talk about the Reliable Reversals : 1) Bullish Engulfing Pattern : A 2-candle pattern appears at the end of the downtrend. The first candlestick is bearish. The second candle should open below the low of the first candlestick low and close above its high. 2) Bearish Engulfing Pattern : A 2-candle pattern. The first candlestick is bullish. The second candlestick is bearish and should open above the first candlestick’s high and close below its low. 3) Tower Top Pattern : The tower top is a reversal pattern that occurs at high price levels. Typically one or more long bullish candlesticks are followed by a few smaller real body candlesticks and then the pattern is completed with one or more large bearish candlesticks. 4) Tower Bottom Pattern : The tower bottom is a reversal pattern that occurs at low price levels. There is one or more long bearish candlesticks followed by a few smaller body candlesticks and then concluded with one or more large bullish candlesticks. 5) Bullish Abandoned Baby Pattern : The bullish abandoned baby is a pattern that appears at the end of a downtrend and signals reversal to an uptrend. Simply put, it signals an end of the selling pressure of the bears and return of the bulls in the market. This pattern consists of three candlesticks: the first candle has a black (or red) big body, the second is a small and bearish candle – or a Doji, and the third is white (or green) candle. 6) Bearish Abandoned Baby Pattern : The bearish abandoned baby is a reversal pattern that forms during an uptrend. It is characterized by three candles, where the first candle is long bodied and white/green. The second candle is a Doji that gaps above the close of the first bar in the series. The third candle opens below the close of the second bar and is long bodied and black/red. 7) Dumpling Top Pattern : A dumpling top occurs when small real body candlesticks slowly rise and then move in a neutral to downward direction. The dumpling top pattern is complete when there is a bearish candlestick that gaps down from the other candlesticks. 8) Fry Pan Bottom Pattern : The opposite of the dumpling top is the fry pan bottom pattern. The fry pan bottom occurs when small real body candlesticks slowly move downward and then move in a neutral to upward direction. The fry pan bottom pattern is complete when a bullish candlestick gaps up from the rest of the candlesticks. 9) Bullish Belt Hold Pattern : A bullish belt hold shows up in downtrends. The pattern can be recognized by one long, full-bodied candlestick that is bullish and opens at a new recent low. The bullish belt hold candle is expected to have a flat or nearly flat bottom. The top has a small shadow, relative to the length of the body. 10) Bearish Belt Hold Pattern : The bearish belt hold is the complete opposite and it comes up in uptrends. To detect it, look for a long full-bodied, bearish candlestick that stands out at the top of an uptrend because it will get to a new recent high and it should be noticeably longer than the other candles. 11) Tweezer Top Pattern : The Tweezer Top pattern is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that is formed at the end of an uptrend. It consists of two candlesticks, the first one being bullish and the second one being bearish candlestick. Both the tweezer candlestick make almost or the same high. 12) Tweezers Bottom Pattern : The Tweezer Bottom candlestick pattern is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern that is formed at the end of the downtrend. It consists of two candlesticks, the first one being bearish and the second one being bullish candlestick. Both the candlesticks make almost or the same low. And Last but not least The Strong Reversal Patterns : 1) Three White Soldiers Pattern : A 3-candle pattern. There’s a series of 3 bullish candles with long bodies. Each candle should open within the previous body, better above its middle. Each candle closes at a new high, near its maximum. The reliability of this pattern is very high, but still, a confirmation in the form of a white candlestick with a higher close or a gap-up is suggested. 2) Three Black Crows Pattern : A 3-candlestick pattern. There’s a series of 3 bearish candles with long bodies. Each candle opens within the body of the previous one, better below its middle. Each candle closes at a new low, near its minimum. The reliability of this pattern is very high, but still, a confirmation in the form of a bearish candlestick with a lower close or a gap-down is suggested. 3) Morning Star Pattern : A 3-candle pattern. After a long bearish candle, there’s a bearish gap down. The bears are in control, but they don’t achieve much. The second candle is quite small and its color is not important, although it’s better if it’s bullish. The third bullish candle opens with a gap up and fills the previous bearish gap. This candle is often longer than the first one. 4) Evening Star Pattern : A 3-candle pattern. After a long bullish candlestick, there’s a bullish gap up. The bulls are in control, but they don’t achieve much. The second candlestick is quite small and its color is not important. The third bearish candle opens with a gap down and fills the previous bullish gap. This candle is often longer than the first one. 5) Bullish Three Line Strike Pattern : A bullish three-line strike is made up of four candles. Of these, the first three are bullish, while the last is bearish. It is made up of three strong bullish candles that progressively end higher followed by a final strike candle. The strike candlestick is bearish and begins at or higher than the third candle but closes at least lower than the open of the first candle. 6) Bearish Three Line Strike Pattern : A bearish three-line strike is a four candle continuation pattern that comes up in a bearish trend. The first three candles are bearish, while the last candle is positive and ends above the highest close of the previous three candles. I Do wanna mention General Reversal Patterns : Three Mountains is the same as Triple Top Pattern Three Rivers is the same as Inverted Triple Top Pattern Buddha Top is the same as Head and Shoulders Pattern Inverted Buddha is the Same as Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern I hope that I was able to help you understand Reversal Patterns in Candlestick Charts better and if you have any more questions don't hesitate to ask. Hit that like if you found this helpful and check out my other video about the Moving Average, Stochastic oscillator, The Dow Jones Theory, How To Trade Breakouts, The RSI , The MACD , The Bollinger Bands , The Different Types Of Trading Strategies, Candlestick Charts Part 1 links will be bellow
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by GabiDahduh
4
Without this, you will not become a profitable trader Yes, this is risk management. Without proper risk management, your trading strategy based on levels, indicators, patterns, etc.will not make any sense. Any trading strategy should be supported by strict risk management, where the maximum allowable losses per transaction and the risk ratio are observed:the profit is always more than 1/2. You don't have to be right in every trade. It's just that your profit in successful transactions should be greater than the losses in unprofitable transactions. This correct use of risk management will lead you to success. ____________ The example shows one of the real scenarios of any trading system where the rules of risk management are observed: Deposit of 10,000$ The risk per transaction is -1% (or -100$) Total trades: 4 profitable trades = +14% 10 losing trades = -10% Total: +4% (or + 400$) Even though only 30% of the total number of profitable transactions, we still have a profitable result. Learn risk management and become a consistently profitable trader. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
128
How To Use Sparks To Kickstart Your ResearchThis video was created by our team to introduce you to the new Sparks tool. Sparks are curated lists to help kickstart your research process. You can find lists of symbols related to specific topics like outer space, alt coins, and a lot more. Markets are sometimes driven by themes, trends, and narratives. Within those themes and trends are lists of symbols that are working to change something or build a better future. With the right research tools, investors and traders can find opportunities and capture enormous growth. But it all starts with a diligent research process and Sparks were created to help all investors and traders get started. That's key, getting started. All it takes is a spark to light a fire, to find the next best investment or trade. For example, here are some Sparks that may interest you: 1. Self-Driving Car Companies www.tradingview.com 2. Environmentally Friendly Stocks 3. Proof of Work Cryptocurrencies 4. Proof of Stake Cryptocurrencies 5. WallStreetBets Stocks And these are only a few examples. Our team is looking build even more Sparks in the future. Our goal is to help all investors and traders learn more about markets. If you have any questions or comments, please write them below. You can also request specific Sparks in the comments below. Thanks for watching the video and following along! - Team TradingView
NASDAQ:ATVIEducation
by TradingView
24
How To Share Your Watchlists (Video Walkthrough)We know how important your Watchlist is. Your Watchlist is where you organize all of your favorite symbols, follow them, and plan ahead. It's also where you track your investments and trade ideas. Our new Advanced View tool makes it possible to share your Watchlists. We believe this is an important next step in Watchlist technology. You can now share your favorite Watchlists with friends, family, and across the Internet either on your blog or social media profile. You can collaborate with groups to make a perfect watchlist, sharing the link and making edits as needed. Create, share, and learn. Get feedback from others and do the research before you make the trade. Our new Watchlist tools can help everyone share and collaborate around markets. Here are links to the two Watchlists we talked about in this video. You can copy this Watchlists, edit them, and add them to your profile: 1. Up-And-Coming Cryptocurrencies 2. Space Stocks The first step to getting started is opening your Watchlist, then clicking the three circles at the top right ••• and selecting Advanced View. From there, you can toggle your Watchlist to be shareable, copying the link and sharing it as needed. You will also see a symbol distribution showing the breakdown of the Watchlist you're looking at. We explain all of this in the video! Make sure you watch it. Please let us know if you have any questions, comments or feedback. You can share them in the comments below. Thank you for watching, Team TradingView
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TradingView
29
Daily Primer: Break your limits 💥In todays daily primer we talk about limitations and cause and effect. This short 5 minute video will give you the necessary guidance as to what you need to focus on to achieve the success you seek in the markets. Success in trading, just like in any other business, is a cause and effect relationship: Poor or average causes = poor or average results good causes = good results excellent causes = excellent results If you want to achieve success, do the work! (metal: have patience, discipline, resilience) (work ethic: prepare your charts, know the news, prepare your plan)
DEducation
by PrimedGroup
Forex Correlations ( Need To Know )Noted chart only has a few highly traded pairs and their either highly correlated negative or positive pairs on daily charts. If you trade more then one pair at a time, you should know which pairs either mostly go same direction and or go opposite direction. You might not want to do two trades that have a positive correlation or negative correlation for diversity and so you do not lose two trades at same time. There are websites which have further information on Forex correlation- you should check out.
Education
by Anbat
TRADING BASICS | What is a Pip? 📚 📏Pip is a measurement of the price change in a currency pair trading on the forex market. In most cases, pip is the equivalent to 1/100th of 1%. That rule is applicable to all the currency pairs quoted to the 4th decimal place like EURUSD. ➡️Current EURUSD price is 1.1696 6 is the 4th decimal place representing a pip. If the pair moves from 1.1696 to 1.1697, that 0.0001 USD rise in value is ONE PIP. ❌That rule is not applicable, for example, to USDJPY which is only quoted to 2 decimal places. ➡️Current USDJPY price is 109.62 2 is the 2nd decimal place representing a pip. If the pair moves from 109.62 to 109.63, that 0.01 JPY rise in value is ONE PIP. 🦉The word pip stands for "price interest point" or "percentage in point". Even though a pip might appear as an extremely small unit of measurement, in leverage trading even the one pip price change of the instrument may lead to a sufficient gain or loss. ➗How to calculate the value of a pip? Each and every currency has its own relative value. In the following example, I will show you how to calculate the value of a pip for a particular currency pair. USD/CAD = 1.2753 Reading that as 1 USD to 1.2753 CAD or 1 USD / 1.2753 CAD 1 Pip = * 1 USD = 0.00007841 per unit traded. Following this example, if we trade 10.000 units of USD/CAD, then a one pip change to the exchange rate would be approximately 0.78 USD change in the position value. Alternatively, pip value can be calculated with various calculators & apps. I hope that with these examples and my explanation you will understand the concept of a pip easily. Let me know what do you want to learn in the next posts! ❤️Please, support this idea with a like!❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
15