Mastering the Anchored Volume Profile: Setup & Tutorial on TVMastering the Anchored Volume Profile: Setup & Tutorial on TradingView 📊
The Anchored Volume Profile is a powerful tool that traders use to visualize volume distribution over a specified price range, providing critical insights into market behavior. Here’s a detailed description of its setup and usage on TradingView:
In this video, we will be going in-depth into the following areas:
What is the Anchored Volume Profile?
The Anchored Volume Profile is a specialized indicator that helps traders understand the distribution of traded volume at different price levels. Unlike traditional volume profiles that analyze data over a fixed time period, the anchored version allows traders to anchor the volume analysis to specific bars, candles, or price points.
Why Use the Anchored Volume Profile?
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels: You can easily identify key support and resistance levels by analyzing where the most volume has been traded.
Spotting Trends and Reversals: High-volume nodes can indicate areas of strong interest, helping to predict potential trend continuations or reversals.
Improving Entry and Exit Points: Knowing where the market participants are most active can significantly enhance your decision-making process for entries and exits.
How to set up the Anchored Volume Profile on TradingView:
Add the Anchored Volume Profile Indicator:
Click on the “Indicators” button at the top of the chart.
Search for “Anchored Volume Profile” in the search bar.
Select it from the list and apply it to your chart.
Anchor the Indicator:
Click on the anchor icon that appears on the chart.
Drag it to the specific bar, candle, or price point where you want to start your volume analysis.
Customize Settings:
Adjust the settings to suit your trading style. You can modify the range, color, and other parameters to better visualize the data.
Using the Anchored Volume Profile:
Analyzing Volume Nodes: Identify high and low volume nodes. High volume nodes often act as support or resistance, while low volume nodes might indicate potential breakout areas.
Understanding Market Sentiment: See where the majority of trading activity has taken place to gauge market sentiment.
Making Informed Decisions: Use the insights from the volume profile to make better-informed trading decisions regarding entries, exits, and stop-loss levels.
Beyond Technical Analysis
Leap Competition: Top 3% in 5 Days! Here's HowLast competition, I hit the top 2% in the Leap Competition on TradingView. This time, though, something clicked. In just 5 days, I was already back in the top 3%.
I didn't change my strategy. Instead I focused on refining how I managed risk. I stopped obsessing over perfect entry points and focused on squeezing as much profit as possible from each trade. That meant shifting to a new management technique.
I prioritized a high risk-to-reward ratio, knowing that fewer trades could yield better returns. By using a trailing stop-loss, each trade had room to reach its potential without getting cut off too soon. This approach transformed each trade into a high-upside opportunity, letting winners ride and securing profits along the way.
Over the last few days, I made fewer than ten trades. Each one was carefully planned through a top-down approach, looking at the bigger picture on higher timeframes to catch the market’s broader trends. This view kept me aligned with the trend, setting up trades with stronger potential.
What really amplified my results, though, was the trailing stop. By locking in profits while riding the market’s momentum, this tool turned profitable trades into standout winners. It let me capture each market move fully without jumping out too soon.
Now, let’s get into the top trade that helped me to get into top 3% within less than a week:
And here’s the trailing stop-loss indicator I’m using—perfect for trades with room to run:
//@version=5
indicator("Swing Low Trailing Stop", overlay=true)
// User Inputs
initialStopPercentage = input.float(0.5, title="Initial Stop Loss Percentage", minval=0.01, step=0.01) * 0.01
Swing_Period = input.int(10, "Swing Period")
i_date = input.time(timestamp("05 Nov 2024 00:00 +0300"), "Start Date")
// Variables for tracking stop loss
var float stopLossPrice = na
var float lastSwingLow = na
// Calculate Swing Low
swingLow = ta.lowest(low, Swing_Period)
// Logic
if i_date == time
stopLossPrice := low * (1 - initialStopPercentage)
lastSwingLow := swingLow
// Update Stop Loss
if time > i_date
newSwingLow = swingLow
if (newSwingLow > lastSwingLow )
stopLossPrice := math.max(stopLossPrice, newSwingLow)
lastSwingLow := newSwingLow
// Plot the stop loss price for visualization
plot(time >= i_date ? stopLossPrice : na, title="Trailing Stop Loss", color=color.red, linewidth=2, style=plot.style_linebr)
With this refined approach, I can’t wait for next week and the fresh opportunities that lie ahead!
Big thanks to the TradingView community for creating opportunities like this competition—it’s a game-changer. Getting to test and refine strategies in a real, competitive environment pushes all o us to get better every day!
If you haven’t joined already, make sure to hop into the competition . It’s an incredible way to challenge yourself, sharpen your skills, and see how you stack up against other traders!
Keep focusing on becoming 1% better every day if you want to make this happen.
Moein
Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle.
Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return.
Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take.
The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive.
The Outliers
2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day.
2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative.
2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive.
The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
Never HODL at the highest point even if the profit is small
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
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I used TradingView's INDEX chart to see the overall flow of BTC.
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Let's take a look at the section that showed a big movement.
(1M chart)
- 13888.32
- 57789.06
- 71320.68
The three points above are where the BW(100) line was created.
The fact that the BW(100) line was created means that a high point section has been formed, so there is a high possibility of a decline.
Therefore, based on the previous two experiences and looking at the current movement, we can see how important the 71320.68 point is as a support and resistance point.
Therefore, we should sell when it falls below 71320.68 in order not to HODL in the high range.
In the big picture, the stop loss point has been confirmed.
-
(1W chart)
From the 1W chart, we can see that the 68376.06 point is an important stop loss point.
Therefore, we should decide to sell depending on whether there is support in the 68376.06-71320.68 range.
-
If the BW(0) line is created after the price falls, then it is a strong buying period.
Therefore, we should check whether there is support and see if we can buy.
The reason is that after buying at the 37929.90 point, there is a possibility that it will fail to rise above the MS-Signal indicator and continue to decline.
Therefore, you should not forget that you need to cut your loss when it falls below 37929.90 after buying.
If you have a lot of cash left after distributing your investment weight well, you can buy more when the next BW(0) line is created to lower the average purchase price.
However, since it is a 1W chart, such a transaction is not easy, so I think it is better to buy again after cutting your loss.
-
(1D chart)
Since BW(0) and BW(100) lines are often created on the 1D chart, it is recommended to use the BW(0) and BW(100) lines created at the current price position for trading.
As mentioned earlier or in the chart, you can see that the BW(100) and BW(0) lines appear after the arrows are created, and there is a decline and rise.
Therefore, since the arrows are created near the current price, you can see that the BW(100) line is likely to be created soon.
Therefore, if you are trying to make a new purchase now, I think it would be better to lower the investment ratio or not to make a transaction at all.
In any case, when the BW(100) line is created, you have to stop the transaction in progress or sell some of it.
-
It is not much, but I think it can be a good reference for trading.
If you look at the StErr Line, HA-High, HA-Low, BW(0), and BW(50) indicators together to make this judgment, I think it will be a great help in your trading strategy.
Since these indicators can be used on all time frame charts, I think they can help you get an eye for selecting support and resistance points.
If you use too many indicators, you can trade incorrectly.
Therefore, you should think about how to use the indicators, which indicators to apply to which trading strategy, and think about how to use them accordingly.
I hope that this time, you will trade without HODLing at the high point.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
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This is all you need to get started: a paper trading account!Starting your trading journey wisely means utilizing a Paper Trading account, also known as a demo account. This account simulates the real trading experience by mirroring market movements and conditions, but operates without the risk of losing real money. It offers traders access to comprehensive market data just like a live account, enabling practice with real-world price fluctuations—if Gold (XAU/USD) experiences a 5% rise or fall, the same scenario reflects in the demo account. This provides an excellent opportunity to understand market dynamics without financial exposure.
A Beginner's Best Friend: The Demo Account
For novice traders, a demo account is an essential entry point into the financial markets. It allows individuals to familiarize themselves with various trading aspects and strategies. Many traders base their transition to live trading on the insights and performance gleaned from their demo accounts. The convenience of setting one up is straightforward—simply use the Paper Trading option on TradingView to practice with a simulated account.
Click on the Trading Panel of your chart, and you'll find the Paper Trading option on TradingView.
Advanced Applications for Experienced Traders
However, the utility of demo accounts isn’t confined to just beginners; seasoned traders also derive significant benefits.
Experimenting with New Strategies
Experienced traders frequently utilize demo accounts to try out and assess new trading strategies. This method serves as a safe way to test different approaches without putting their capital at risk.
Evaluating Automated Tools
Developers of trading bots and algorithms rely on demo accounts for comprehensive testing of their tools. These automated systems undergo rigorous backtesting in a zero-risk environment, ensuring they are ready for live trading scenarios.
Training and Development
Demo accounts serve as effective training platforms for both individual traders and those employed within financial institutions. Whether it’s a retail trader or a professional in a hedge fund, these accounts offer vital learning experiences that hone skills effectively.
Skill Development and Confidence Building
The benefits of demo accounts extend to enhancing both technical and soft skills. Fundamental competencies such as market analysis, strategy formation, and data interpretation can be improved in a low-stakes setting. Meanwhile, soft skills like patience, resilience, and adaptability receive a boost, ultimately shaping a well-rounded trader.
Moreover, the journey can build confidence. Since trading can be intricate and losing money can shake one's self-assurance, a demo account provides a haven for refining trading strategies without risking actual funds. This psychological support can significantly influence success in the live markets, where self-confidence is often linked to profitability.
How Long Should You Practice?
The duration one should spend in a demo account varies, influenced by personal factors. For those transitioning to full-time trading, a minimum of three months is advisable. Though this may seem lengthy, it is a small price to pay for a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics and a variety of trading conditions.
The Advantages of Practicing Day Trading in a Demo Account
1- Accelerated Learning
Utilizing non-market hours for practice enables traders to quickly accumulate experience, far exceeding what can be gained during regular market sessions.
2- Preparedness for Quick Decisions
Day trading requires rapid decision-making skills. Regular practice in a demo account equips traders to respond swiftly to market fluctuations.
3- Intuitive Market Recognition
Frequent practice encourages an instinctual grasp of market conditions, vital for timely and effective trading actions.
4- Confidence in Trading Decisions
Confidence plays a critical role in a day trader's success. Thorough practice in a risk-free environment allows traders to build confidence before they step into live trading.
5- Adaptability to Market Variability
Day traders often experience victories and losses. Practicing within a controlled environment fosters a clear mindset to tackle each trade, essential for adapting to shifting market scenarios.
6- Setting Realistic Income Expectations
Repeated practice enables traders to set achievable income expectations, cultivating a sensible outlook prior to committing to full-time trading.
7- Enhancing Chart Analysis Skills
A demo account encourages traders to develop chart reading abilities without becoming overly reliant on them, promoting a balanced analytical approach.
8- Personal Trading Style Development
The complexities of day trading call for personalized strategies. Regular practice in a demo account allows traders to foster their unique trading styles and embrace accountability for their decisions.
9- Effective Risk Management
Practicing with margin in a demo account allows traders to experiment with leverage while treating each trade seriously.
Also Read:
and now...
"Best Practices for Using Demo Accounts"
To ensure you maximize the benefits of a demo account, adopt the following strategies:
Serious Approach
Although no real money is at stake, treating the demo account with seriousness enhances realism and deepens the learning experience.
Realistic Capital Allocation
Even though demo accounts may offer unlimited capital, traders should simulate an amount similar to their intended live trading capital for a more accurate experience.
Maintain Consistent Leverage
Using the same leverage plan that you would apply during live trading ensures that your demo experience aligns closely with potential future outcomes.
Gradual Transition to Live Trading
Transitioning from a demo account to live trading should be done thoughtfully. Test your strategies extensively in the demo environment, simulating real trading amounts, to reduce the likelihood of mistakes once you start live trading.
In conclusion...
In summary, a demo account is a vital resource for both novice and experienced traders navigating the complexities of financial markets. For beginners, it provides a risk-free avenue to grasp market dynamics and develop essential trading techniques. For seasoned professionals, demo accounts are indispensable for strategy testing, evaluating automated tools, and enhancing both technical and psychological skills.
While the ideal duration in a demo account varies from trader to trader, committing to three months is recommended for anyone serious about entering full-time trading. Day traders particularly stand to gain by practicing within a demo setting, allowing them to accelerate skill acquisition, prepare for snap decisions, and foster a robust sense of confidence. The structured environment of a demo account promotes the crafting of personalized trading strategies, the establishment of effective risk management practices, and the ability to adapt to real-world market conditions.
Lastly I would like to add this previous lecture to this post, I'm sure will be useful for you...
The Psychology Of Trading How To Manage Your Emotions
and..
The Benefits of Keeping a Trading Journal for Your Psychology
✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
How to PREDICT MARKETS! Tops and BottomsIn this video, I go over the following in great detail:
Predicting Markets with Williams %R, RSI, and MACD
Predicting market movements can be challenging, but combining the Williams %R, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicators can provide powerful insights for traders.
Williams %R measures the current closing price relative to the high-low range over a specific period, helping identify overbought or oversold conditions. RSI gauges the speed and change of price movements, also indicating overbought or oversold levels. MACD analyzes the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price, identifying potential buy or sell signals.
By using these three indicators together, traders can:
Confirm Trends: When all three indicators align, it strengthens the signal for a potential trend continuation or reversal.
Identify Entry and Exit Points: Overbought or oversold signals from these indicators can help pinpoint optimal entry and exit points.
Reduce False Signals: Combining multiple indicators can help filter out false signals, increasing the reliability of predictions.
A capture of inflation, dilution and stimulus /2024As we see by the chart, we had a series of events mostly around mega-stimulus for Covid and a massive dilution of currency as triggering events. Inflation rose and is now back down close to the desirable 2% inflation.
We don't want prices to go back to where they were, that is deflation and is not healthy for an economy. We want prices to stay near the same year after year with modest inflation. When inflation rises too fast, we increase interest rates to slow down spending, to reduce inflation. The best we can do is work on wage growth to accommodate the inflation from our past years while maintaining modest inflation.
At 2.4% inflation currently, there really is pretty much nothing to fix anymore, we just need to keep it around where it is, a little lower really and work on modest wage growth.
Looking at this data, it really looks like the vast majority of the culpability of that inflation we had came from 2020, one of the single worst years financially as a country with inflation starting to rise immediately in 2021, and exacerbated some in 2021.
Looking at this chart, there is a tangible possibility that we see >10% inflation by 2027
Here is the M2 money supply chart:
CBOE long @ 197.04 - it may be the perfect stock for meCBOE is short term oversold. That is enough reason for me to buy it. But there's more. This might be the absolute perfect stock to use my "first profitable close" exit strategy on. Both exit strategies work well. My original one produced a 42-3* win rate over the last 2 years (backtesting) with all 3 “losers” being the last 3 trades that haven’t become profitable yet, while the first profitable close strategy was 43-2*.
This is a stock that rarely stays oversold long, and bounces back quickly in most cases. In an albeit short 2 year backtest, the highest number of lots I'd have held at once was 4 and the average was 1.4, meaning almost always, they were being sold the next day.
In fact, the average holding period for the 45 trades taken in that time would have been 1.55 days and 69% of the trades closed in 1 day, using the first profitable close. Remarkably, the longest I'd have had to hold a lot before it became profitable in the entire 2 year backtest period was 5 days and that only happened twice.
Now as I mentioned in my NYSE:VZ idea yesterday, there is usually a tradeoff with this exit strategy. Lower average profits and slightly lower profits per day held in exchange for quicker cycling of capital. But I mentioned that isn’t always the case, and CBOE is a perfect example of that.
The big reason is the HUGE difference in trade length. ORIG exit strategy tied up capital 9x as long, on average, as FPC (first profitable close) did.
Avg. hold period ORIG = 14.1 days (longest hold - 106 trading days)
Avg. hold FPC = 1.6 days (longest hold - 5 days)
Overall gain per lot traded favored ORIG over FPC, +2.8% vs. 1.2%...BUT...gain per lot per day held (quantifies the tradeoff between hold length and profit) was HUGELY in favor of FPC here due to the dramatically shorter hold period.
FPC = +.78%/lot/day held
ORIG = +.20%/lot/day held
Both of those numbers are very good, but the FPC one is off the charts.
A +.78%/day held return is a 197% annualized return. That’s moonshot microcap returns, not stodgy, safe, dividend paying options exchange company returns. Now realistically you're not actually going to have a 197% return because you don't get these trades every day. But it's a measure of how fast your money is making you money. Usually ORIG marginally beats FPC in this situation, but the speed at which CBOE can return capital profitably makes the FPC exit a much better play with this one.
I haven't done an all-time backtest on this, but you can bet I'm going to this weekend. I suspect the difference between the two won't be as dramatic over the long haul, but it's worth noting that there were no long, grueling downtrends in CBOE over the last 2 years, and FPC outperforms ORIG during those. I'll post the results of that as an update to this idea either over the weekend or on Monday, depending on how busy my weekend gets.
By the way, I bought a double lot because it was oversold yesterday too and I missed it. The last time it was oversold 2 days in a row was May '23. I will add to the position whenever it is oversold and I will sell any lot at the close of the first day it becomes profitable.
So try to resist following me on this trade, since this isn't financial advice. It's edutainment. You should DYOR before investing or trading any of your own hard earned money. Have a good weekend everyone!
Stay profitable, San Diego. -Ron Burgundy
Algorithmic vs. Quantitative Trading: Which Path Should You TakeI’ve always wondered why anyone would stick to traditional trading methods when algorithms and mathematical models could do all the heavy lifting.
I started questioning everything:
• Why do so many mentors still swear by discretionary trading when algorithms could handle all the heavy lifting?
• Do they really have solid proof of their “own” success, or is it just talk?
• Or are they keeping things complex and discretionary on purpose, to confuse people and keep them as members longer?
• Why deal with the stress of emotions and decisions when an algorithm can take care of it all?
• Imagine how much further ahead you could be if you stopped wasting time on manual trades and instead focused on market research and developing your own models.
When I first got into trading, I thought Algorithmic Trading and Quantitative Trading were basically the same thing. But as I dug deeper, I realized they’re two completely different worlds.
Algorithmic Trading: It’s simple – you set the rules and the algorithm executes the trades. No more sitting in front of the screen “controlling your emotions” and trying to manage every little detail. Instead, you let the algorithm handle it, based on the rules you’ve set. It frees up your time to focus on other things rather than staring at price charts all day.
But here’s the thing – it’s not perfect. You’ll still need to test the rules to make sure the data and results you’re getting aren’t overfitted or just random.
Quantitative Trading: A whole different level. It’s not just about executing trades; it’s about understanding the data and math behind market movements. You analyze historical price, economic, and political data, using math and machine learning to predict the future. But it can be complex – techniques like Deep Learning can turn it into a serious challenge.
The upside? This is the most reliable way to trade, and it’s exactly what over 80% of hedge funds do. They rely on quant models to minimize risk and to outperform the market.
So, which path should you choose?
Quantitative Trading can feel overwhelming at first, I recommend starting with the basics. Begin with Pine Script coding in TradingView—start building a foundation with simple strategies and indicators. As you grow more confident, start coding your own ideas into rules and refining your approach to eventually automated your trading strategy.
TradingView is a great tool for this, and I’d highly suggest grabbing the Premium plan. This will give you access to more data and features to make your learning journey smoother.
Dive into the Pine Script documentation , and begin bringing your ideas to life.
I promise, the more you focus on this, the better and more independent you’ll become in trading.
Every day, aim to get just 1% better.
To Your success,
Moein
EDUCATION: The “Fake” Engulfing Candle: A SNEAKY TRAPAs traders, we’re often taught to look for classic price action patterns, and one of the most well-known is the Engulfing Candle. It's that strong reversal pattern where the body of the second candle completely engulfs the body of the first, signaling potential trend reversals or continuations. But what happens when that engulfing candle shows up in the "wrong" place? That’s what I like to call a "Fake" Engulfing Candle.
A "Fake" Engulfing Candle is one that paints on the chart but in a location that doesn’t align with the market context or trend. For example, if you’re in a strong, established trend, an engulfing candle that appears in the middle of the trend (without any supporting structure or context) could be a false signal. This kind of engulfing candle might look great on the chart, but it's not telling you the full story—it’s a signal with poor timing.
Understanding the Importance of Location
The location of an engulfing candle is key. A "real" engulfing candle typically forms after a clear trend exhaustion or at a key support or resistance level. These are areas where price is likely to reverse, and that’s where an engulfing pattern becomes meaningful. However, when the engulfing candle appears in random locations—without any clear structure around it—it’s often just noise in the market.
Fake signals, like this, can lead traders to make impulsive decisions, chasing trades that aren’t supported by solid market structure or context. Think of it like walking into a room full of noise—you may hear words, but they’re not telling you anything meaningful.
How to Spot a Fake Engulfing Candle
Context is King: Look for the engulfing candle to form after a trend exhaustion or near a key support or resistance level. If it pops up in the middle of a strong trend with no visible reason for reversal, chances are it’s a fake.
Volume Confirmation: Is the engulfing candle supported by volume? A strong engulfing candle should have an increase in volume, confirming the strength of the move. If volume is absent or weak, the signal may be unreliable.
Previous Market Structure: The best signals often come from patterns that align with previous market structure, such as previous highs or lows. If the engulfing candle doesn’t respect any major levels or swing points, it might not be worth trading.
Practical Takeaway: Don't Fall for the Fake
The takeaway here is simple: don’t let the appearance of a "perfect" engulfing candle fool you. Just because it looks good on the chart doesn’t mean it’s the right signal for the current market conditions. Always pay attention to the context around the pattern and confirm it with volume and other technical indicators. Remember, location matters when it comes to identifying valid trade setups.
Have you ever been caught by a "Fake" Engulfing Candle? What’s your process for distinguishing real signals from fake ones? Drop your thoughts in the comments—I'd love to hear how you handle these tricky setups!
Becoming a Respected Vendor on TradingViewBecoming a Respected Vendor on TradingView: What it Means and How to Excel.
If you're reading this, you’re probably on TradingView.com, a thriving hub for technical traders, market enthusiasts, and creators of tools that support trading success. TradingView is home to two main groups: those who offer paid indicators and those who share ideas and tools for free, contributing to the community’s growth.
With so many options available, the question arises: Should people pay for technical indicators? And what distinguishes a quality vendor from one who’s just following trends? Here’s a guide on what makes a vendor worth your attention—and how they can establish legitimacy and trustworthiness in a sometimes oversaturated market.
🞛 Why Pay for Technical Indicators?
Investing in a paid indicator can sometimes be invaluable, as these tools often go beyond what’s available for free, providing deeper insights or unique approaches. Generally, a vendor will decide to sell a product if they believe it has some sort of edge. However, paying for an indicator requires careful evaluation: understanding the tool’s unique value and assessing the vendor’s commitment to creating quality products. When considering whether an indicator is worth your money, the focus should be on its utility, originality, and the support structure behind it.
🞛 Key Qualities of a Good Vendor
Originality and Innovation
At the heart of any high-quality technical indicator is robust mathematical groundwork. While visuals are helpful, they come secondary to solid foundational math and advanced techniques, like Digital Signal Processing (DSP). A vendor with a genuine passion for indicator creation will have refined, creative tools, rather than simply repackaging or rebranding existing ideas. Look for originality and a clear differentiation in the product. Vendors who aim to elevate the field contribute to the TradingView library, sharing open-source content that adds genuine value. This process can of course be assisted via the Editor Picks award where the TradingView team will select excellent creations awards.
Community Engagement
This means responding to questions, implementing meaningful suggestions, and generally showing a vested interest in user success. The largest vendors may not be able to respond to every comment, but they should have systems in place to track and log feedback consistently.
Comprehensive Educational Support
A quality vendor ensures you understand how to get the most out of their tools, whether through documentation, recorded courses, or live classes. This support is particularly important for complex products, where a little guidance can go a long way in helping users fully utilize the tool’s capabilities.
Humility and Honesty
Some of the best tools come from lesser-known creators who prioritize their craft over marketing. Scouting out promising indicators on the trending page can reveal gems created by individuals who may lack big budgets but offer real, innovative value. Also, beware of grandiose claims—vendors who truly believe in their work allow the product to speak for itself. Ego is dangerous especially in a field like technical analysis where nothing is assured or guaranteed. Any vendors asserting themselves as leaders or the best could be disingenuous as generally speaking every product will have a unique quality set.
How to Assess a Vendor’s Legitimacy
With so many options on TradingView, it can be challenging to determine which vendors are truly worth your time. Here are some ways to evaluate them:
Research Their History and Contributions
Have they released any open-source scripts or tutorials? Vendors who contribute freely to the community often demonstrate a higher level of expertise and integrity.
Review Customer Feedback and Engagement
Look through comments, reviews, and responses to see how well the vendor interacts with customers. Vendors who consistently receive positive feedback and follow up on user input are often more reliable.
Test Their Free Indicators First
Trying these tools before making a financial commitment can give you a sense of their quality, ease of use, and how well they align with your trading goals.
🞛Premium or Free indicators?
While both free and paid indicators rely on mathematical foundations, paid indicators may incorporate more advanced or refined techniques. For instance, they might leverage proprietary algorithms, signal processing methods, or unique data combinations that aren’t as accessible in free indicators. This doesn't mean they will automatically yield higher profits, but these advanced techniques can provide unique insights that a trader may not find in simpler tools.
Rather than promising financial gains, these indicators aim to enhance a trader’s analytical capability.
Paid indicators often come with dedicated customer support, documentation, and even a community of users who actively share insights and strategies. This support can be extremely valuable for traders at any experience level, as it allows them to troubleshoot issues, learn from others, and get guidance on how to maximize the tool's potential.
🞛 Final Thoughts
The TradingView ecosystem is a dynamic environment, filled with talented individuals who push the boundaries of technical analysis. By seeking out vendors who prioritize originality, community engagement, and user support, traders can make informed choices about which indicators add real value to their toolkit. Remember, a responsible vendor doesn’t just sell a product—they cultivate an experience, one that ultimately supports you in becoming a more confident, successful trader.
When choosing a vendor, look for those who stand behind their product, foster transparency, and create tools that are rooted in genuine innovation.
By doing so, you’ll contribute to a marketplace that encourages quality, integrity, and growth for traders everywhere.
Thank you for reading!
- Alex Friend / ChartPrime
Understanding Trading Leverage and Margin.When you first dive into trading, you’ll often hear about leverage and margin . These two concepts are powerful tools that can amplify your profits, but they also come with significant risks. The image you've provided lays out the essentials of leverage and margin: Leverage allows traders to control larger positions, Margin acts as a security deposit, Profit Amplification boosts potential gains, and Risk Amplification warns of increased losses.
In this article, we’ll break down these terms and explore how leverage and margin work, their advantages and risks, and what to consider before using them in your trading strategy.
What is Leverage in Trading?
Leverage is essentially a loan provided by your broker that allows you to open larger trading positions than your actual account balance would otherwise allow. It’s a tool that can multiply the value of your capital, giving you the potential to make more money from market movements without needing to invest large sums of your own money.
Think of leverage as “financial assistance.” With leverage, even a small amount of capital can control a larger position in the market. This can lead to amplified profits if the trade goes your way. However, it’s a double-edged sword; leverage can also lead to amplified losses if the trade moves against you.
Example of Trading with Leverage
Suppose you have €100 in your trading account and your broker offers a leverage of 1:5. This means you can control a position worth €500 with your €100 investment. If the market moves in your favor, your profits will be calculated based on the €500 position, not just the €100 you originally invested. However, if the market moves against you, your losses will also be based on the larger amount.
What is Margin in Trading?
Margin is the amount of money you must set aside as collateral to open a leveraged trade. When you use leverage, the broker requires a deposit to cover potential losses—this is called margin. Margin essentially acts as a security deposit, ensuring that you can cover losses if the trade doesn’t go as planned.
Margin is usually expressed as a percentage of the total trade size. For example, if a broker requires a 5% margin to open a position, and you want to open a €1,000 trade, you would need to deposit €50 as margin.
How Does Margin Work?
Margin works together with leverage. The margin required depends on the leverage ratio offered by the broker. For instance, with a 1:10 leverage, you’d only need a 10% margin to open a position, while a 1:20 leverage would require a 5% margin.
If the market moves against your position significantly, your margin level can drop. If it falls too low, the broker may issue a **margin call**, requesting additional funds to maintain the trade. If you don’t add funds, the broker might close your position to prevent further losses, which could lead to a loss of the initial margin amount.
How Does Leveraged Trading Work?
Leveraged trading involves borrowing capital from the broker to increase the size of your trades. This allows you to open larger positions and potentially gain higher profits from favorable market movements.
Here’s a simplified process of how it works:
1. Deposit Margin: You set aside a portion of your own funds (margin) as a security deposit.
2. Leverage Ratio Applied: The broker provides you with additional capital based on the leverage ratio, increasing your trading power.
3. Open Larger Positions: You can now open larger trades than you could with just your capital.
4. Profit or Loss Magnified: Any profit or loss from the trade is amplified, as it’s based on the larger position rather than just your initial capital.
While leverage doesn’t change the direction of your trades, it affects how much you gain or lose on each trade. That’s why it’s essential to understand both the potential for profit amplification and the risk amplification that leverage brings.
The Benefits and Risks of Using Leverage
Benefits of Leverage
- Profit Amplification: With leverage, you can control larger trades, which means any favorable movement in the market can lead to greater profits.
- Capital Efficiency: Leverage allows you to gain exposure to the markets without needing to invest a large amount of your own money upfront.
- Flexibility in Trading: Leveraged trading gives traders more flexibility to diversify their positions and take advantage of multiple opportunities in the market.
Risks of Leverage
- Risk Amplification: Just as leverage can amplify profits, it also amplifies losses. If a trade moves against you, your losses can be substantial, even exceeding your initial investment.
- Margin Calls: If the market moves significantly against your leveraged position, you may face a margin call, requiring you to add more funds to your account to keep the position open.
- Rapid Account Depletion: High leverage means that small market moves can have a big impact on your account. Without careful management, you could deplete your account balance quickly.
Important Considerations for Leveraged Trading
1. Understand the Leverage Ratio: Different brokers offer various leverage ratios, such as 1:5, 1:10, or even 1:100. Choose a leverage ratio that aligns with your risk tolerance. Higher leverage ratios mean higher potential profits but also higher potential losses.
2. Know Your Margin Requirements: Always be aware of the margin requirements for your trades. Brokers may close your positions if your margin level drops too low, so it’s essential to monitor your margin balance regularly.
3. Risk Management is Key: Use risk management strategies like stop-loss orders to limit potential losses on each trade. Don’t risk more than a small percentage of your account balance on any single trade.
4. Avoid Overleveraging: One of the biggest mistakes new traders make is using too much leverage. Start with a lower leverage ratio until you’re more comfortable with the risks involved in leveraged trading.
5. Only Use Leverage if You Understand It: Leveraged trading is suitable primarily for experienced investors who understand the market and the risks involved. If you’re new to trading, practice with a demo account to learn how leverage works before applying it in a live account.
Final Considerations
Leverage and margin are powerful tools in trading that can amplify profits, but they come with considerable risk. Using leverage wisely and understanding margin requirements are essential to avoid unnecessary losses and protect your account. While the prospect of profit amplification is attractive, traders should always remember that leveraged trading is a double-edged sword—it can lead to significant gains, but it can also result in rapid account depletion if not managed carefully.
To summarize:
- Leverage allows you to control larger trades with a small investment, multiplying both potential profits and potential losses.
- Margin is the deposit required to open a leveraged trade and acts as a security against potential losses.
- Use leverage responsibly and only after understanding the risks involved.
Leverage can be a valuable tool in trading if used wisely, so make sure to educate yourself, practice with a demo account, and always approach leveraged trading with caution.
The Importance of Financial Discipline in TradingThe Importance of Financial Discipline in Trading: A Pathway to Lasting Success
Achieving consistent success hinges on one fundamental principle: financial discipline. This concept encompasses adherence to a well-structured trading strategy, effective risk management, and emotional control. Distinguishing successful traders from those who struggle, financial discipline empowers individuals to make informed decisions while navigating the often chaotic world of financial markets.
Understanding Financial Discipline
Financial discipline is about maintaining a methodical approach to trading. It requires traders to exercise patience in waiting for favorable market conditions, the courage to cut losses promptly, and the self-restraint to avoid impulsive risks. By establishing clear trading rules and sticking to them, traders can minimize errors, conserve capital, and foster long-term profitability. In contrast, a lack of discipline can lead to devastating consequences, derailing even the most promising strategies and exposing traders to significant financial setbacks.
Also Read:
The Critical Role of Emotional Control
Emotions can be one of the biggest hurdles in trading. Decisions driven by fear, greed, or overconfidence often lead to regrettable outcomes. For instance, fear may result in prematurely exiting a position, causing traders to miss out on potential gains when they could have held on longer. Conversely, the lure of quick profits might tempt traders to overtrade or take on excessive risk.
Disciplined traders minimize the impact of emotions by adhering to a comprehensive pre-planned strategy that emphasizes consistency. This approach includes specific criteria for trade entries and exits, pre-defined risk thresholds, and clear guidelines for position sizing. By operating within these parameters, traders can cope with the inevitable volatility of the market without succumbing to emotional reactions.
Moreover, having financial discipline allows traders to maintain composure during turbulent market periods, a time when many make ill-advised choices. The essence of financial discipline lies in its ability to keep traders focused on their long-term objectives, adapt strategies when needed, and ultimately achieve sustained profitability over time.
Also Read:
Setting Achievable Goals
Successful trading begins with the establishment of realistic, achievable goals. Traders should clarify their objectives—in both the short and long term—to facilitate strategic decision-making. Short-term goals, such as monthly profit targets, should remain specific yet attainable, fostering motivation and providing benchmarks for progress. For example, rather than aiming for excessively high returns, a trader might target a modest monthly gain, reducing the urge to engage in risky behavior.
However, flexibility is essential. Financial markets are dynamic, and goals may need adjustment in response to changing conditions. What may seem feasible during a bull market could become unrealistic in a downturn. Long-term goals, such as building wealth over several years, can help traders keep sight of their overarching aims without getting sidetracked by temporary setbacks.
By setting realistic expectations, traders can avoid the pitfalls of ambition that often lead to burnout or reckless decisions. These well-defined goals serve not only as performance indicators but also as tools to cultivate patience and resilience in the trading journey.
Risk Management: The Heart of Discipline
Effective risk management is paramount for survival in trading, and disciplined traders recognize that controlling risk is essential for long-term sustainability. Every trade carries a degree of uncertainty, and without a robust risk management strategy, even minor losses can escalate, jeopardizing a trader's financial health.
One fundamental risk management technique is the implementation of stop-loss orders. A stop-loss automatically closes a trade once it reaches a predetermined loss threshold, helping traders avoid the pitfall of holding onto losing positions in hopes of recovery. By defining acceptable limits, traders can mitigate risks and safeguard their accounts.
Position sizing is another critical component of a prudent risk management strategy. Traders should only risk a small percentage of their total capital on any single trade, ensuring that a series of losses will not have a devastating impact on their overall account balance. This approach encourages traders to diversify their risks rather than overexposing themselves to any one market or trade.
Additionally, understanding and applying a favorable risk-reward ratio is central to disciplined trading. Aiming for trades where the potential reward significantly surpasses the risk taken helps ensure that traders remain profitable in the long run. For example, a risk-reward ratio of 3:1 means risking $100 to potentially earn $300. By consistently identifying trades with such favorable ratios, traders can weather inevitable losses while maintaining a path to profitability.
Also Read:
Mastering Emotional Control
The psychological aspects of trading cannot be overlooked. Emotions such as fear and greed can markedly hinder progress. Fear may lead to hasty exits from positions, while greed could incite traders to exceed their risk limits in pursuit of greater profits. Both scenarios jeopardize a structured trading plan and can have dire financial consequences.
Long-term success in trading requires emotional control, allowing traders to base decisions on careful analysis rather than spontaneous reactions to the market. Fostering a disciplined routine is key. This starts with a thorough trading plan that outlines clear entry and exit strategies, risk management protocols, and position sizes. Consistently revisiting and adhering to this plan will help mitigate impulsive decision-making influenced by market mood swings or personal stressors.
Embracing losses as an inherent part of trading is also vital. Even the most adept traders experience losing trades, and it's crucial to avoid allowing recent losses to cloud future judgment. Focusing on the broader strategy and long-term performance instead of fixating on individual trades enhances a trader’s capacity to remain rational and composed.
Also Read:
and...
Conclusion: The Path to Consistency and Success
Financial discipline is not merely a concept; it's the bedrock of effective trading. By prioritizing structured strategies, managing risk diligently, and controlling emotions, traders can position themselves for sustained success in the financial markets. The journey to mastery involves setting realistic goals, crafting sound risk management plans, and cultivating emotional resilience. Ultimately, by embracing these principles, traders can improve their decision-making processes and enhance their chances for consistent, profitable outcomes in the exciting yet challenging world of trading.
Interpreting Long/Short Ratios in Futures Trading█ Interpreting Long/Short Ratios in Futures Trading: Beyond Bullish and Bearish
For beginner traders, the long/short ratio in futures markets can seem like a clear-cut indicator of market sentiment. Many assume that a high ratio of longs to shorts means the market is bullish, while more shorts than longs signals a bearish outlook. But in reality, this interpretation is oversimplified and can lead to misguided trading decisions.
In this article, we'll break down the nuances of the long/short ratio in futures trading, explaining why positions on the “short side” don’t always indicate a bearish stance and how traders can better interpret these ratios for a well-rounded perspective.
█ Understanding the Basics: Futures Trading Is Not Spot Trading
In the futures market, every trade requires a buyer (long position) and a seller (short position). For each person going long, there’s a counterpart going short. This zero-sum structure means that, by definition, there’s always a balance between longs and shorts. However, the reasons why traders take long or short positions vary widely—and not all of them are directional bets on price movement.
█ Why Not All Shorts Are Bearish (And Not All Longs Are Bullish)
Let’s dig into why a trader might take the short side without actually betting on a price drop:
⚪ Hedging: Some traders go short to hedge an existing position. For instance, if they already hold a large amount of Bitcoin in the spot market, they might take a short position in Bitcoin futures to protect against potential downside risk. This doesn’t mean they’re bearish on Bitcoin; they’re just managing risk.
⚪ Arbitrage: Some traders take short positions for arbitrage purposes. For example, they might go long in one market and short in another to profit from small price differences without having any directional view on Bitcoin’s future price. Their short position is purely for balancing and not a bet on falling prices.
⚪ Market Making: Market makers provide liquidity to the market by taking both long and short positions. Their goal isn’t to profit from price movements but to capture the spread between the bid and ask prices. They don’t have a directional view—they’re simply facilitating trades.
⚪ Closing Long Positions: When traders close long positions, they effectively create a new short transaction. For instance, if a trader decides to exit a long position by selling, they’re adding to the short side of the market. But this action doesn’t necessarily mean they expect prices to drop—it could just mean they’re taking profits or reallocating their portfolio.
█ Interpreting CoinGlass Long/Short Ratio Charts: Volume vs. Accounts
Let’s look at the long/short ratio charts on CoinGlass as an example. CoinGlass provides two main types of ratios:
⚪ Volume-Based Ratio: This chart shows the volume of capital in long vs. short positions. For example, a high volume in longs might suggest that large players are buying into Bitcoin. However, it’s important to remember that some of these long positions could be from market makers, hedgers, or arbitrageurs, who may not expect Bitcoin to rise. The volume itself doesn’t tell us why they’re in these positions.
⚪ Account-Based Ratio: This chart tracks the number of accounts on each side (long vs. short) on exchanges like Binance. A higher number of accounts on the short side doesn’t mean all those traders are bearish. Many could be taking short positions to balance other trades or hedge risks. They’re not necessarily expecting Bitcoin to decline; they’re just managing their positions.
█ Example Analysis: Misinterpreting Long/Short Ratios
Imagine you’re looking at a CoinGlass chart that shows an increase in long volume around November 5th. A beginner might see this and think, “Everyone’s bullish on Bitcoin!” But as we discussed, some of this long volume could be non-directional. It could include positions taken by market makers providing liquidity or hedgers who are long on Bitcoin futures but have a corresponding short in another market.
Similarly, if you see a spike in the number of short accounts, don’t automatically assume that everyone expects Bitcoin to fall. Some of those accounts might just be managing risk or taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
█ Avoiding the Pitfall of Overinterpreting the Long/Short Ratio
The biggest mistake traders make is interpreting the long/short ratio as a direct indicator of market sentiment. Remember, every trade has a counterparty. If there’s a high volume of longs, it simply means there’s an equal volume of shorts on the other side. The market’s overall sentiment isn’t always reflected in this ratio.
Instead of relying solely on the long/short ratio, consider these other factors to form a clearer market view:
Market Sentiment Indicators: Use sentiment tools, news, and social media sentiment to understand how traders are feeling beyond just positions.
Volume Trends: Look at overall market volume to see if there’s conviction behind the moves.
Context and Price Action: Interpret the ratio in the context of price action and recent events. If there’s a strong bullish trend, a higher long ratio might reflect confidence in the trend rather than simply volume.
█ Conclusion: A Balanced Perspective for Smarter Trading
Understanding the long/short ratio requires a more nuanced perspective. Just because the “longs” are up doesn’t mean everyone’s bullish—and just because the “shorts” are up doesn’t mean everyone’s bearish. The futures market is filled with diverse participants, each with unique motives, from hedging and arbitrage to liquidity provision.
By looking at these ratios with a balanced view, traders can avoid common pitfalls and interpret the data more accurately. Trading is about context and strategy, not just numbers on a chart. So, next time you’re checking the long/short ratio, remember: there’s more to it than meets the eye.
█ Final Takeaway: Focus on Context, Not Just Ratios
The long/short ratio can be a helpful tool, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. Use it in combination with other market indicators, and always consider the motives behind trades. By doing so, you’ll make better-informed trading decisions and avoid falling into the trap of oversimplifying complex market data.
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Whyi can say "Pivot by morning" at R6I wanted to explain to people how this is possible... notice how todays pivots are calculated with yesterday in mind in such a way to get us to pivot easily.
I have said this, in similar situations many times, so far it has always worked.
This also means we don't have to only short from R6 (or maybe even R10 (TSLA) )... we can go higher because there is room now.
SHIB some educational point for investors (educational)Hello and greetings to all my valued followers and crypto enthusiasts. In this IDEA, I aim to provide some educational points and overview of the SHIBUSDT’s position. 🙌🐋
The SHIB token is one of the loudest tokens in the crypto market over the past few years, especially during the peak of the crypto market. It was a time when many investors flooded into the market, and this token experienced a significant explosive price increase.
It had a large community and a very powerful tool known as media, which resulted in a massive influx of capital over a few months. Buyers at various levels and stages were purchasing this token, and their wallets saw beautiful positive green numbers, realizing substantial profits. However, before they could withdraw these profits, just like what happens to most of these upward explosions, they fell into doubt and uncertainty.
This capital, like layers of sedimentary rocks formed at the bottom of the sea, became trapped and stagnant in the same purchased assets.
As I mentioned, contrary to the potential this token has, it has fallen into a deep sleep, and to emerge from this slumber, a new influx of capital is needed. Nevertheless, it still holds great potential for growth.
The point I want to emphasize today, or rather share from my personal experience, is to sometimes embrace the events that occur in life and give a new color to your path with this acceptance. Financial markets, much like life, embed the psychology of human beings in every layer.
If you encounter failure or loss, stopping your losses at any moment is a golden win for you. I’ll keep my words short to have a deeper impact on you; just think carefully about my words and don’t repeat my past experiences.
Now, I’ll provide a brief summary of the upcoming trend for the SHIB token: the price of this token is currently experiencing a range and calm cycle similar to most market trends, and with a new influx of capital, we can expect a good price increase.
Summary: learn to accept your mistakes and cut the loss as soon as possible, don't steak to your pleasant moment happened in the past and respect this as well in crypto market too.
Thank you for your attention. If you have any questions or comments, I’m here to respond to you. 🐋💡
Presidential Elections impact on Dollar and BitcoinThe U.S. dollar is key in global finance. It's used in trade and as a reserve currency. Presidential elections can greatly affect the dollar's strength.
Changes in leadership and policy expectations lead to currency swings. These swings show how markets view future economic stability and policies.
Historical Trends: Presidential Elections and Dollar Volatility
Presidential elections bring uncertainty to markets. Investors try to guess how the election will affect policy and interest rates. This uncertainty makes the dollar more volatile.
Here is how the DXY moved after the last 4 elections
Price action suggests that we could go higher short-term, then down. However, Im not trying to predict anything now. I would rather wait and then do my classic trading setups as usual.
Volatility can happen before and after an election. It depends on the clear result and policies the new administration will follow.
Election Cycles and Currency Movements: The dollar is more volatile during election years. But, this effect varies based on market expectations of each candidate's policies.
Historical Examples: In 2016, Donald Trump's win made the dollar rise at first. This was because of his pro-business policies. But, the 2008 election led to uncertainty and a weaker dollar.
Factors That Influence the Dollar During Elections
Several things affect the dollar during elections. These include:
Economic Policy Outlook: Markets watch candidates' economic plans. Policies that boost growth, like tax cuts, help the dollar.
Trade and Foreign Relations: Candidates' views on trade and foreign relations matter a lot. Protectionist policies might strengthen the dollar but could harm growth in the long run.
Federal Reserve Influence: The president's Fed picks shape monetary policy. Markets react to changes in policy, like interest rate shifts, which affect the dollar's value.
Market Reactions and Investor Behavior
Before an election, investors often wait to see what happens. This makes the dollar move as they adjust their investments. After the election, the dollar's value changes based on the new policies.
Currency as a Safe Haven: The dollar is often seen as safe during uncertain times. Even with U.S. risks, investors might choose the dollar for its stability.
Impact of Policy Announcements: The dollar's immediate reaction depends on the winning candidate's policy plans. Big spending plans can lead to inflation, weakening the dollar over time.
If we check COT data we can see that Non-comercials as well as commercials are both around 50/50 hedged.
Empirical Data and Case Studies
Studies show different effects of elections on the dollar, based on the economy:
2016 Presidential Election: The dollar rose after Trump's win due to his economic plans. These plans were seen as good for growth, leading to a positive dollar reaction.
2020 Presidential Election: After Biden's win, the dollar fell. This was because of expected big spending and low interest rates, which could cause inflation.
2024 Presidential Election: From a technical perspective, COT and seasonal tendencies. I think we could see push up but then the dollar is set for the deep dive.
While Bitcoin has only been around since 2009, it has already experienced several U.S. elections with discernible impacts:
2016 Presidential Election: The lead-up to and aftermath of the 2016 election, which saw Donald Trump take office, coincided with an increase in Bitcoin's price. The market anticipated regulatory easing and lower corporate taxes, creating a favourable environment for risk assets. Additionally, there was heightened uncertainty in global markets, leading some investors to consider Bitcoin as a hedge.
2020 Presidential Election: The 2020 election was accompanied by heightened political tension and economic uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After Joe Biden’s victory, Bitcoin surged, with many investors perceiving the incoming administration’s stimulus policies as likely to increase inflation risks. This led to a major inflow of institutional investment into Bitcoin, pushing it toward new all-time highs.
This can also be positive for the Bitcoin. Overall I think the impact will be just short term, whoever wins we will see a rally as the global liquidity is rising and it's the main driver for the bitcoin
Long-term Implications
The long-term dollar impact of elections depends on policy changes. Initial reactions can be strong, but lasting effects are rare. They happen only if new policies significantly change the economy or global trade.
Conclusion
The U.S. presidential election has a big impact on the dollar. This is due to market feelings, policy hopes, and the economy's state. Even though short-term ups and downs are usual, the dollar's long-term fate hinges on the new administration's actions and the economy's performance.
Knowing how these factors work helps investors and policymakers. They can better prepare for and adjust to changes in currency markets during election times.
Thanks for reading
Dave FX Hunter
Options Trading Advanced Series 1In this video, I dive into two advanced options trading strategies: the Long Iron Butterfly and the Short Iron Condor. These setups are designed to capitalize on sideways market movement. Using the TradingView Option Simulator, I demonstrate how each strategy works, discuss the potential outcomes, and share tips on optimizing them for better results.
Trump vs. Harris: Economic and Policy Impacts on the U.S. Introduction:
The U.S. presidential election is one of the most critical events in global politics, shaping the future of the country’s policies. This year, voters face a significant choice between two candidates with distinct approaches: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Their policies will influence the economic, social, and environmental future of the U.S. This script explores the key focus areas of both campaigns, their policy priorities, and the potential impact on the U.S. economy and national debt.
1. Economic Focus in Campaigns:
Donald Trump:
Tax Cuts and Deregulation: Trump emphasizes reducing taxes and deregulating industries to stimulate economic growth. He believes this approach helps businesses thrive and creates jobs.
Job Creation and Manufacturing: Trump aims to bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S., reduce outsourcing, and bolster domestic industries.
Trade Policies: His "America First" trade policies focus on renegotiating trade deals to benefit American workers and industries.
Stock Market Performance: Trump often points to stock market gains as an indicator of economic health and success under his administration.
Kamala Harris:
Economic Equity and Middle-Class Support: Harris advocates for policies that support the middle class, such as raising the minimum wage and providing tax relief for lower-income families.
Investment in Green Economy: Her plan involves creating jobs through investment in renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure, aiming for long-term economic growth.
Healthcare as Economic Policy: Harris believes in reducing healthcare costs, arguing that affordable healthcare boosts economic productivity.
Support for Small Businesses: She proposes targeted support for small businesses, especially those owned by women and minorities, to foster inclusive growth.
2. Policy Focus in Campaigns:
Donald Trump:
Immigration and Border Security: Trump’s policies focus on strict immigration control and border security to protect American jobs and safety.
"America First" Policy: This policy emphasizes prioritizing U.S. interests in trade, defense, and foreign relations, appealing to nationalistic sentiments.
Law and Order: Trump advocates for strong law enforcement to tackle crime and violence, particularly in urban areas.
Kamala Harris:
Healthcare Reform: Harris promotes expanding access to affordable healthcare, with reforms aimed at improving the healthcare system.
Climate Change and Green Policies: She strongly supports measures to combat climate change through renewable energy and environmental regulations.
Social Justice and Equality: Harris focuses on criminal justice reform, racial equality, and reducing income inequality.
Women's Rights and Reproductive Health: She advocates for protecting women’s rights, including access to reproductive healthcare and equal pay.
3. Impact on U.S. Debt:
Donald Trump:
Tax Cuts and Defense Spending: His tax cuts, similar to those in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, are expected to reduce government revenue and potentially increase the national debt by $1.5 trillion over a decade.
Short-Term Debt Impact: Increased defense spending could further elevate the debt unless offset by spending cuts elsewhere.
Kamala Harris:
Healthcare and Green Investments: Harris’s plans for healthcare expansion and green initiatives could increase the debt by $3.0 trillion over the next decade, unless funded by higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations.
Long-Term Debt Impact: While these investments aim for sustainable growth, the initial cost could significantly raise the national debt if not managed carefully.
Conclusion:
In this election, Americans are choosing between two very different visions for the country’s future. Donald Trump’s focus on tax cuts, deregulation, and strong national policies contrasts with Kamala Harris’s emphasis on healthcare reform, climate action, and social justice. Understanding the economic and policy implications of each candidate's platform is crucial for voters. This decision will shape not only the U.S. economy but also its social fabric and global standing for years to come.
Impact on the Global Economy:
This election will not only determine the direction of U.S. domestic policies but also significantly influence the global economy. The current geopolitical landscape, including ongoing conflicts, adds to the complexity. The policies of the next U.S. administration could shift trade dynamics, global markets, and international alliances, particularly during a time of heightened tensions and uncertainty.
Risk Management During the Election:
During election periods, markets can be highly volatile due to uncertainty. To protect against potential losses, traders should:
1. Reduce Position Sizes: Lower your exposure to minimize the impact of sudden price swings.
2. Set Tight Stop Losses: Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.
3. Avoid Overtrading: Stay disciplined and avoid making impulsive decisions based on market noise.
4. Hedge Positions: Consider hedging strategies, such as options, to manage risk.
5. Stay Informed: Keep track of election-related news and updates to adjust your strategies accordingly.
6. Increase Cash Reserves: Holding more cash reduces risk exposure and provides flexibility.
By following these risk management strategies, traders can navigate the election period more safely and protect their capital.
Mastering the Risk/Reward Ratio: A Key to Trading ProfitabilityMastering the Risk/Reward Ratio: A Key to Trading Profitability
In the world of trading, achieving success isn't merely about selecting the right stocks or making spot-on predictions. True profitability lies in managing risk effectively, a skill that can be the difference between sustained growth and heavy losses. A primary tool for this is the risk/reward ratio—a fundamental element in a trader’s toolkit. This metric helps traders maintain discipline and clarity, ensuring each trade has a strong potential for profit while keeping possible losses in check.
Whether you’re new to trading or have years of experience, understanding and using the risk/reward ratio can transform your approach. It’s not about maximizing the number of wins but ensuring that the rewards consistently outweigh the risks. Here, we’ll explore how this ratio impacts trading strategy and why it’s critical for long-term success.
Understanding the Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio is a straightforward formula that compares the profit potential of a trade to its possible loss. Essentially, it answers the question: How much can I gain for every dollar I risk?
For example, if you're willing to risk $100 for a possible $300 gain, your risk/reward ratio is 1:3, meaning you could make $3 for every $1 at risk.
Example of a 1:3 risk-reward ratio in EUR/USD
This concept encourages traders to evaluate the potential downside of a trade before jumping in, moving away from focusing solely on potential gains. By keeping a balanced view of risk and reward, traders can avoid seemingly attractive trades that may carry excessive risk, enabling them to approach the market with a disciplined, long-term mindset.
Why Risk/Reward Matters
Every trade involves risk, and the ability to manage it effectively often differentiates successful traders from those who struggle. Using the risk/reward ratio ensures that each trade is structured with a clear plan, protecting capital while allowing for potential profits. Without this focus on risk, traders may chase high returns without properly assessing the downside, leading to costly mistakes.
Combined with tools like stop-loss orders and position sizing, the risk/reward ratio becomes part of a broader risk management strategy. These components work together to balance profit potential with loss control, which is essential for traders aiming to sustain profitability over time.
Here you can find a comprehensive article on stop-loss strategies.
Risk/Reward Ratio vs. Win Rate
A common misconception among novice traders is that trading success depends on winning more trades than losing ones. Experienced traders know that profitability has more to do with how risk is managed in losses than how many wins you achieve. The risk/reward ratio addresses this, making it possible to be profitable even if a trader wins less than half of their trades, as long as the wins are substantial enough to offset the losses.
For example, if a trader wins only 40% of the time but maintains a 1:3 risk/reward ratio, the profits from winning trades can cover losses from losing trades while still yielding an overall profit.
Here is a comprehensive table comparing risk/reward ratios to win rate profitability.
Advantages of a Disciplined Risk/Reward Approach
One of the most valuable benefits of using the risk/reward ratio is the structure it brings to trading. It helps traders stay rational and minimizes emotionally driven decisions, such as holding onto losing positions with the hope of a reversal. By maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio, traders enter each trade with a defined plan, reducing the chance of impulsive, loss-heavy decisions.
Furthermore, applying a risk/reward framework ensures that trades are entered only when the reward justifies the risk. Over time, this disciplined approach fosters consistency and sets the stage for more predictable results.
Steps to Calculate Risk/Reward Ratio
Calculating the risk/reward ratio is a simple yet impactful process that enhances trade planning. Here’s a step-by-step guide:
1- Determine Your Risk: Define the amount you’re willing to lose if the trade moves against you, which is the difference between your entry price and stop-loss level.
2- Define Your Reward: Establish the potential profit if the trade goes in your favor, measured from the entry price to your target profit level.
3- Calculate the Ratio: Divide the potential reward by the potential risk to get your risk/reward ratio.
For instance, if you’re buying a stock at $100 with a stop-loss at $95, your risk is $5. If you aim to sell at $115, your reward is $15, giving you a 1:3 risk/reward ratio.
Choosing an Ideal Risk/Reward Ratio
The ideal risk/reward ratio can vary based on trading style and goals, though many traders aim for a minimum of 1:2 or 1:3. Higher ratios like 1:3 allow for a more forgiving approach to losses, where a trader doesn’t need a high win rate to be profitable. However, shorter-term traders might use lower ratios (e.g., 1:1.5) while aiming for a higher win rate to balance profitability.
Ultimately, the best ratio depends on factors like trading frequency, volatility, and risk tolerance. Day traders may prefer a 1:2 ratio, allowing for quicker exits with decent returns. Swing traders, on the other hand, might look for a 1:3 ratio or higher to justify holding positions longer despite potential market fluctuations.
Managing Risk with the Right Tools
Achieving long-term profitability requires more than just a favorable risk/reward ratio; it also demands effective risk management. Stop-loss orders, for instance, are invaluable for capping potential losses. Placing stops at logical price points, such as below support levels or above resistance levels, helps protect positions without risking premature exits.
Similarly, maintaining discipline by skipping trades that don’t meet your risk/reward criteria can prevent excessive losses. Proper position sizing and a detailed trading plan round out this approach, ensuring that each trade aligns with your overall strategy and risk tolerance.
Here is a comprehensive guide about the Risk Management
Final Thoughts: The Power of the Risk/Reward Ratio in Trading
The risk/reward ratio is more than a calculation—it’s a mindset that can lead to stronger, more disciplined trading decisions. By assessing potential risks and rewards before each trade, you can avoid impulsive choices and safeguard your capital. This approach brings clarity and control to trading, even amid market unpredictability.
While the risk/reward ratio may be a straightforward tool, its impact is profound. Focusing on balancing risk with reward enables traders to protect themselves from major losses while pursuing worthwhile gains. The next time you plan a trade, remember to ask: “Does this meet my risk/reward criteria?” If not, stepping back could be the wisest move.
Risk management is essential for lasting success, and the risk/reward ratio serves as a constant guide. Consistently applying this ratio fosters discipline, confidence, and, ultimately, greater profitability in your trading journey.
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Why Trading Sessions Matter in Forex: Key OverlapsThe Forex market is open 24 hours a day during the weekdays, allowing traders flexibility to trade at any time. However, understanding the best times to trade is essential for effective trading. The market is divided into four main sessions: Sydney, Tokyo, London, and New York, each corresponding to peak activity in key financial centers. Using a Forex Market Time Zone Converter can help traders determine which sessions are active in their local time, making it easier to plan around high-liquidity periods.
Although the market is technically always open, not all trading times are equally profitable. Higher trading volume, which generally occurs during session overlaps, creates ideal conditions for traders. For example, the overlap of the London and New York sessions sees the highest volume, with more than 50% of daily trades occurring in these two centers. Trading at this time, especially with currency pairs like GBP/USD, can lead to tighter spreads and quicker order execution, reducing slippage and increasing the likelihood of profitable trades. Similarly, trading AUD/JPY during the Asian session, when the Tokyo market is active, is advantageous due to higher trading activity for these currencies.
Conversely, trading during times when only one session is active, such as during the Sydney session alone, can result in wider spreads and less market movement, making it harder to achieve profitable trades. Planning trades around high-activity sessions and overlaps is key to effective forex trading.