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Europe - America War, Impact on Forex Hello, my name is Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an important issue that is shaking up the international market: the trade war between the European Union and the United States. Recently, the European Union responded to the duties imposed by the United States on steel and aluminum with countermeasures worth 26 billion euros. In response, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% duties on all wines, champagnes and spirits from France and other countries represented by the EU2. This escalation of trade tensions will certainly have a significant impact on the FOREX market. Let's see together what the consequences could be: Market Volatility: Trade tensions between two of the world's largest economies will increase the volatility of the FOREX market. Investors will seek safe havens, such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY), increasing the demand for these currencies. Euro (EUR) depreciation: The euro could come under downward pressure due to concerns about the economic impact of tariffs on key EU sectors, such as wine. The reduction in exports of wine and other alcoholic products could negatively impact the EU's trade balance. US dollar (USD) appreciation: The dollar could strengthen further, as investors view the US as a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty. However, the increase in tariffs could also lead to higher inflation in the US, complicating the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates. Impact on the currencies of wine exporting countries: The currencies of major European wine exporters, such as the euro (EUR) and the Swedish krona (SEK), could come under downward pressure due to the decrease in exports to the US. In conclusion, the tariff war between the European Union and the US will have a significant impact on the FOREX market. Investors will need to monitor developments closely and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. Stay tuned for more updates and market analysis! Happy trading to all!
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Learn To Invest: Global Liquidity Index & BitcoinGlobal Liquidity Index & BitCoin: 🚀 Positive Vibes for Your Financial Journey! 🚀 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Look at this chart! It's the Global Liquidity Index , a measure of how much extra money is flowing through the world's financial systems. Why is this important? Because when this index is high, it often means good things for investments like #Bitcoin! 📈 Think of it like this: when there's more money flowing, people are often more willing to take risks and invest in things like Bitcoin. See those "BullRun" boxes? That means things are looking bright! It's showing that money is flowing, and that's often a good sign for potential Bitcoin growth. 🌟 Even if you're not a pro, it's easy to see the good news here. Understanding these trends can help you make smarter decisions. Let's all aim for growth and success! 💪
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Navid_Jafarian
11
Quarterly Theory "QT" Introduction to Quarterly Theory (QT) Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles. Combining QT (Quarterly Theory) concepts with basic ICT concepts leads to greater accuracy. Understanding QT allows you to be flexible. It adapts to any trading style as it is universal across all time frames. QT eliminates ambiguity by providing specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades . THE CYCLE Annual Cycle - 3 quarters each Monthly Cycle - 1 week each Weekly Cycle - 1 day each* Daily Cycle - 6 hours each Session Cycle - 90 minutes each *Monday to Thursday, Friday has its own specific function . Annual Cycle: Q1 JANUARY - MARCH Q2 APRIL - JUNE Q3 JULY - SEPTEMBER Q4 OCT - DECEMBER Monthly Cycle**: Q1 FIRST WEEK Q2 SECOND WEEK Q3 THIRD WEEK Q4 FOURTH WEEK Weekly Cycle*: Q1 MONDAY Q2 TUESDAY Q3 WEDNESDAY Q4 THURSDAY Daily Cycle: Q1 ASIA Q2 LONDON Q3 NEW YORK Q4 AFTERNOON **Monthly Cycle starts with the first full week of the month. *Friday has its own cycle, which is why it is not listed. Q1 indicates the quarters that follow. If Q1 expands, Q2 is likely to consolidate. If Q1 consolidates, Q2 is likely to expand. TRUE OPENS True price opens are the beginning of Q2 in each cycle. It validates key levels. What are the true opens? Yearly: First Monday of April (Q2) Monthly: Second Monday of the month (Q2) Weekly: Second daily candle of the week Daily: Start of the London session (6 hours after the open of the daily candle) Asia - London - NY - Evening: 90 minutes after the open of the 6-hour candle. DIAGRAM: Q1 (A) Accumulation - Consolidation. Q2 (M) Manipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this). Q3 (D) Distribution (Trade this). Q4 (X) Continuation - Reversal of the previous quarter. Q1 (X) Continuation - Reversal of the previous quarter. Q2 (A) Accumulation - Consolidation. Q3 (M) Manipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this). Q4 (D) Distribution (Trade this). ANNUAL CYCLE: MONTHLY CYCLE: WEEKLY CYCLE: DAILY CYCLE:
Education
by Ed_Ale
How to manage your money in a way to get out of a bull traplet's say for example you bought 50 shares of BITX (bitcoin 2X bullish) on March 07, at Pivot for $45.50, and now you along with a lot of other longs are trapped. Each time the market rallies other bulls get out at a loss on every rally. Causing another downturn.. trapping you further. IF Your strategy is like mine so you won't close the trade in a loss, but you are wasting valuable time. Also suppose you have 30 or 40% of your overall portfolio that is reserved for shorting. When you take profits on the shorts, instead of saving the money for yor next short, you buy 50 more shares at the current market price of 37. Now you can get out halfway to your original target, at $41 by selling both, at the same time. you made money on your long, enough to eliminate the loss if you sold the first lot below your original target. In this example you can sell at $41, which is a lot easier to reach than $45 which might take another week. To determine the level you an get out simply add the two prices and divide by 2.
CBOE:BITXEducation
by dryanhawley
Breaking the Trading Matrix: Lessons from The Matrix MovieThe Matrix is more than just a movie—it’s a mind-expanding experience that continues to offer new insights, no matter how many times you watch it. Beyond its philosophical depth and action-packed sequences, the film carries powerful lessons that can be applied to trading. Just like in The Matrix, financial markets blur the line between reality and illusion. Success in trading requires a shift in perception, a willingness to embrace harsh truths, and the ability to decode the underlying structure of the market. Let’s break down the key trading lessons inspired by The Matrix. 🕶️ Building Confidence: The Neo Path Remember Neo’s journey? He started as Thomas Anderson—doubtful and uncertain—before transforming into the confident savior of humanity. This mirrors a trader’s evolution: • You start hesitant and unsure. • Greed and ego take over. • The market humbles you with losses. • You develop an edge, learning from experience. • Over time, confidence and resilience grow. Like Neo, every trader faces setbacks. But every setback is a setup for a comeback. Persistence and adaptation are key. 🏃‍♂️ Confirmation Bias: Dodging the Bullet One of the most iconic scenes in The Matrix is Neo dodging bullets, bending reality to his advantage. Traders must do the same by reshaping their biases. If you only seek confirmation for your trades, you’ll ignore critical counter-signals. To avoid this trap: ✅ Develop a trading system based on logic, not emotion. ✅ Seek diverse viewpoints instead of reinforcing your bias. ✅ Accept that the market moves on probabilities, not personal beliefs. Dodge the confirmation bias bullet, and you’ll become a more objective and adaptable trader. 🔴 Take the Red Pill: Embrace Reality In The Matrix, the red pill symbolizes awakening to the truth. In trading, taking the red pill means accepting the realities of the market: ❌ Traders who take the blue pill: • Chase high win rates. • Refuse to accept losses. • Gamble with oversized positions. ✅ Traders who take the red pill: • Accept risk as part of the game. • Prepare for inevitable losses. • Understand that past performance does not guarantee future results. Those who ignore market realities are doomed to fail. Take the red pill and see the market for what it truly is. 🥄 There Is No Spoon: The Power of Perspective In the famous "There is no spoon" scene, Neo learns that reality is shaped by perception. The same applies to trading: • The market isn’t your enemy—your perception of it is. • Stop trying to “bend” the market to your will. • Instead, bend your mind to adapt to market conditions. Traders who develop flexibility thrive, while those who resist change break. 🔢 Understand the Code – Understand the Matrix Neo eventually sees the code behind The Matrix. Similarly, traders must understand the market’s underlying structure: 📊 Price Action 📈 Volume 📉 Probabilities Markets move up, down, and sideways. Your job is to recognize patterns and decode them. The more you understand the code, the more clarity you gain in your trades. 👨‍💼 Agent Smith and Market Manipulators Just as Agent Smith was a virus in The Matrix, market manipulators exist to exploit uninformed traders. Beware of: 🚨 Extreme volatility 📉 Unusual price gaps ❌ Pump-and-dump schemes Stay vigilant and avoid manipulated markets that can drain your capital. 🏋️ Training Simulation: Practice Makes Perfect Before Neo fought in the real world, he trained in simulated battles. Traders should do the same before risking real money: ✅ Backtest strategies to refine your edge. ✅ Use demo accounts to practice execution. ✅ Paper trade to gain confidence before going live. Mistakes in training are free. Mistakes in live trading cost money. Train smartly. 🕶️ Morpheus’s Faith: Belief in Yourself Morpheus believed in Neo before Neo believed in himself. Traders must also develop unwavering self-belief: ✔️ Trust your analysis. ✔️ Stick to your system. ✔️ Make decisions with confidence. Doubt and hesitation lead to poor execution. Confidence, backed by preparation, leads to success. 🏛️ The Architect’s Plan: Strategy is Key The Architect had a plan for The Matrix—every possible outcome was accounted for. Traders need the same level of structure: 📝 Develop a clear trading strategy. 🎯 Stick to your plan, even when emotions flare up. ⚖️ Adjust when necessary, but never trade impulsively. Without a plan, you’re just another gambler in the market. 🧘 Free Your Mind: Emotional Control Neo’s final test was to free his mind. In trading, emotional control is the ultimate skill: ✅ Backtest your system to understand market behavior. ✅ Risk less until you're comfortable with losses. ✅ Trade small before increasing position sizes. Your worst enemies in trading? ❌ Ego ❌ Fear ❌ Greed Master them, or the market will master you. 🔥 Final Words: The Path to Financial Awakening Trading, like The Matrix, is a journey of self-discovery, discipline, and adaptation. If you want to break free from the illusion of quick riches and truly understand the market, you must: 📌 Develop confidence and resilience. 📌 Avoid confirmation bias and seek objective perspectives. 📌 Accept the harsh realities of trading. 📌 Adapt to market conditions instead of resisting them. 📌 Learn to read price action, volume, and probabilities. 📌 Stay vigilant against market manipulation. 📌 Practice before going live. 📌 Believe in yourself and your system. 📌 Have a structured plan and execute with discipline. 📌 Master your emotions to make rational decisions. The real question is: Are you ready to free your mind and take control of your trading destiny?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Trading Psychology or Technical Analysis—When Mind Meets MatterThere’s an age-old battle in trading that makes the bull vs. bear debate look like a game of pickleball (no offense, finance bros). It’s the clash between the traders who swear by their charts and the ones who insist it’s all about mindset. The technicals versus the psychologicals. Fibonacci retracements versus fear and greed. RSI versus your racing heart. TLDR? Both matter—a lot. But knowing when to trust your indicators, when to trust yourself, and when to blend both is the fine line that separates those who thrive from those who rage-quit. ⚔️ The Cold, Hard Numbers vs. the Soft, Messy Brain Think of technical analysis as your sometimes inaccurate GPS in trading. It’s structured, predictable, and gives you clear entry and exit points—until it doesn’t. Because markets, much like a GPS in a tunnel, don’t always cooperate. That’s where psychology creeps in. Your mind is the ultimate trading algorithm, but it’s often running outdated software. Fear of missing out? That’s just your brain throwing a tantrum. Revenge trading? A glitch in emotional processing. Overconfidence after three wins in a row? Well done, you genius. Technical analysis gives you signals, but trading psychology determines how you act on them. 🤷‍♂️ When the Chart Says One Thing, and Your Brain Says Another Picture this: You’ve mapped out the perfect setup. The moving averages align, volume confirms the breakout, and everything screams BUY . But then your brain whispers, What if it reverses? What if this is a trap? What if I’m about to donate my account balance to the market gods? You hesitate. The price moves without you. Now, frustration kicks in, and suddenly, you’re clicking BUY at the worst possible moment—just in time for a pullback. Sometimes, the best trade is the one you don’t take. And sometimes, trusting the chart over your overthinking brain is the only way forward. 🔥 The Big Guys and Their Choices Legendary investors have picked their sides in this debate. Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital, has long been a big believer in market psychology. He argues that understanding investor sentiment is more valuable than any chart pattern because markets are driven by cycles of greed and fear. On the other hand, Paul Tudor Jones—one of the greatest traders of all time—leans on technicals, famously saying, “The whole trick in investing is: ‘How do I keep from losing everything?’ If you use the 200-day moving average rule, you get out. You play defense.” Both approaches work. The question is: Are you the type who deciphers market mood swings, or do you trust that a well-placed moving average will tell you when to cut and run? 🌀 Overtrading: The Technical Trap and the Psychological Spiral Overtrading usually starts with a good trade, a small win, and a rush of dopamine that convinces you you’ve cracked the code. So, you take another trade. Then another. And before you know it, you’re firing off entries like a caffeinated gamer, except your PnL is the one taking the damage. Technical traders fall into this trap because they see too many setups. Every candlestick pattern, every little bounce, every “potential” breakout becomes a reason to trade. Psychological traders, on the other hand, may overtrade out of boredom, frustration, or the need to “make back” losses. The result? An emotional rollercoaster that ends with an account balance you don’t want to check the next morning. The fix? Trade selectively. The best setups don’t come every five minutes, and forcing trades is like forcing a bad joke—it just doesn’t land. 💪 Fear, Greed, and the Art of Holding Your Ground Every trader knows the feeling: You’re in profit, but instead of letting the trade play out, you close early because profit is profit, right? Wrong. Fear of losing profits is what keeps traders from maximizing their wins. And greed—the evil twin of fear—is what makes traders hold losing trades, hoping for a miracle. It’s the classic “let winners run, cut losers short” rule in reverse. Technical traders know where their stops and targets are. The problem? They often ignore them when emotions take over. Psychological traders “feel” the market but get crushed when that gut feeling betrays them. The best traders find the balance—using technicals to set logical targets and psychology to actually stick to the plan. 🤝 The Solution? A System That Checks Both Boxes So, what’s the verdict? Do you put matter over mind or mind over matter? The truth is, great traders do both. They develop strategies based on technicals but manage execution with discipline. They respect risk management rules not just because the chart says so, but because they know how destructive emotions can be. Here’s what the best do differently: ✅ They journal trades —not just the setups but how they felt during the trade. ✅ They stick to a trading plan so they can trust their system over impulse. ✅ They set rules that help them to properly bounce back from losses . ✅ They know the value of knowledge and never stop learning. (We’ve got you covered here, too. Go check the Top Trading Books if you’re a trader and stop by the Top Books on Investing if you’re an investor). 💚 Final Thoughts: Mind and Market in Harmony In the end, trading is never just one or the other. It’s not pure math, and it’s not pure mindset. It’s a dance between structure and instinct, strategy and psychology. The ones who get it right aren’t just great at reading charts—they’re great at reading themselves.
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
20
Predicting sell off, 30"++ in advance of a head and shouldersLet's examine how a head and shoulders is usually formed by a wave 4 and 5 and an A & B wave, the C wave is the sell off after the head and shoulders. I use this pattern to predict a head and shoulders AT THE RIGHT NECKLINE. In this case 90 minutes in advance.. So 6 X 15 minute candles in advance we can predicted a H & S and a selloff, sound valubale? if you understand this concept please give a thumbs up. To go over price action again, we are going up on 5 waves. Wave 4 creates the left shoulder. After wave 5 we come down on an A wave, that is the right neckline. This is where You can predict an B wave UP, and if it doesn't go higher than the previous wave 5, we will get a typical head and shoulder sell off after the wave B up.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by dryanhawley
9
Two Stock Market Crashes explained in one chart(ELLIOTT)The first is the Dot-Com Bubble that happened in Early 2000. This was the end of Wave 1(Black) and a retest was on the horizon. The market corrected with a zigzag marked in Red late in March 2000. What followed was a sharp drop Wave A(Red), B correction, and a 5 Wave move to complete Wave C of the zigzag. The 5 Wave move to Red Wave C is supported by Math as it retests at exactly at the 423% of the Fibonacci and 161.8% of Red Wave A on a Monthly time frame. The second Stock Market Crash is the Financial Crisis of 2008 which by the way is the largest Stock Market Crash in the last 80 yrs. Historically, it is only second to the Great Depression of 1929. Can it be explained in terms of Elliott Wave? Yes. It was part of Wave 5 after Green Wave C ended. In fact, from Blue Wave 4/C there is a clear 5 wave move with a zigzag as its first correction and a flat as its second. The Financial Crisis is Wave 5 after the mentioned second flat but is called a Stock Market Crash!! All this is avoidable.
IG:NASDAQEducation
by machariavictor017
2025 ICT Mentorship: Premium & Discount Price Delivery Intro2025 ICT Mentorship: Lecture 4_Premium & Discount Price Delivery Intro Greetings Traders! In this video, we dive into the fundamental concept of Premium and Discount Price Delivery—a crucial aspect of smart money trading that helps us understand how institutions approach the market with precision and efficiency. Understanding Currency Pairs Before we explore premium and discount dynamics, it's essential to grasp the basics of currency pairs. A currency pair, like EUR/USD or GBP/USD, represents the value of one currency against another. For example, EUR/USD shows how many U.S. dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one euro (the base currency). Just like any other tradable asset, currency pairs fluctuate in value due to various economic and market factors. Trading Is Part of Everyday Life Believe it or not, everyone in the world is a trader. Whether you're buying groceries at a store or negotiating for goods and services, you're participating in trading activities daily. Some people aim to purchase items at a discount, while others can afford to pay a premium—it’s simply part of life. However, banks and financial institutions take trading to another level. They don’t just trade haphazardly—they operate with extreme precision, aiming to make high-quality investments by executing trades at premium prices and targeting discount levels. This strategic approach allows them to capitalize on market inefficiencies and ensure profitable outcomes. Why Premium and Discount Matter? The concept of premium and discount price delivery is foundational for understanding how the market moves. By recognizing where the market is trading at a premium (overvalued) versus a discount (undervalued), traders can make more informed decisions and align their strategies with institutional order flow. Stay tuned as we break down how to identify these zones on a chart and how to incorporate them into your trading strategy. Make sure to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications so you never miss an update! Happy Trading, The_Architect
Education
by The_Archi-tect
A Pseudoscience called Technical analysis!Pseudoscience is characterized as a system of theories or beliefs that are presented as scientific but lack the rigors and foundations of the scientific method. It often uses scientific-sounding language while being rooted in unsubstantiated claims or cultural beliefs, and it can be misleading and harmful.  My Evolution as a Market Analyst Early Success on TradingView In 2020-2021, I established myself as a leading analyst on the TradingView platform, becoming the top-rated contributor for equities and high-volume tickers including TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, ARKK, COIN, RIOT, WKHS, PLTR, NIO, and Bitcoin. Educational Background My journey began fifteen years ago with a comprehensive study of technical analysis methodologies. I immersed myself in seminal works including: "Technical Analysis of Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" by Steve Nison "Trading with the Andrews Pitchfork" by Glenn Wilson "Elliott Wave - Fibonacci High Probability Trading" by Jared Sanders Professional Recognition While my initial goal in publishing analyses on TradingView was personal performance tracking, industry recognition came unexpectedly. Within three months, I ranked among the platform's top six contributors, advancing to the highest-rated position by the fourth month. This visibility led to multiple partnership offers from brokerages and cryptocurrency projects, including Tiger Broker (NASDAQ: TIGR), all of which I declined to maintain independence. Client Development Following requests from followers, I established a contribution system to support ongoing analysis. My work attracted institutional attention, including a hedge fund managing hundreds of millions in assets that engaged me for educational services. I developed a customized curriculum delivered via virtual platforms, maintaining a rigorous teaching schedule that ultimately revealed limitations in traditional technical analysis approaches—confirming Richard Feynman's observation that "When one teaches, two learn." Methodological Evolution This realization prompted a strategic pivot. I paused teaching to focus on skill development, particularly in programming and data analytics. I integrated advanced concepts including: Game theory applications Quantitative analysis frameworks Behavioral finance principles AI Integration The emergence of accessible AI models represented a significant advancement for my practice. I leveraged Gemini (formerly Bard), ChatGPT, and Claude to enhance my options trading system, developing proprietary metrics to identify market inefficiencies in derivatives pricing. Current Approach Today, I operate as a substantially transformed analyst with a modernized market perspective. While my analytical methods employ sophisticated quantitative techniques, I continue presenting findings in traditional visual formats to accommodate audience preferences—a phenomenon explained by patternicity. Understanding Cognitive Biases in Trading Patternicity A concept introduced by Michael Shermer describes our tendency to identify meaningful patterns within random noise Highlights humanity's inherent drive to impose order on chaotic information Significantly impacts decision-making processes as our minds actively seek connections, sometimes where none exist Apophenia The broader tendency to perceive connections between unrelated phenomena First defined by German neurologist Klaus Conrad in 1958 as "unmotivated seeing of connections" While common in everyday cognition, extreme manifestations can indicate psychological concerns Trading in the AI Era For market participants continuing to rely exclusively on traditional technical analysis methodologies—pattern trading, Elliott Wave theory, harmonic patterns, or price action systems—I offer this perspective: these approaches alone are increasingly insufficient for achieving consistent market outperformance in today's technology-driven environment.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Moshkelgosha
2
Use Buy The Dip Like a LynchWhile we can’t say for certain that Merrill Lynch specifically uses VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) in their strategies, one thing is clear: they certainly rely on sophisticated statistical tools and data-driven insights to inform their investment decisions. Merrill Lynch, known for its expertise and successful track record, employs a range of techniques to navigate market fluctuations and identify profitable opportunities. In the fast-paced world of trading, every decision counts. One strategy that has stood the test of time is Buy the Dip (BTD). This approach involves buying assets after they’ve experienced a temporary drop, anticipating that the price will bounce back 📉➡️📈. However, timing the dip correctly can be challenging without accurate data and predictive tools. This article explores how to enhance your Buy the Dip predictions using OHLC Range Map and 4 VWAPs set to Century on TradingView. What is the Buy the Dip Strategy? 🤔 The Buy the Dip (BTD) strategy is simple yet effective. Traders buy an asset after its price has fallen, believing that the dip is temporary and the price will soon rise again 📉➡️📈. The challenge, however, is knowing when the dip is truly an opportunity rather than the start of a longer-term downtrend. This is where data-driven insights come into play. Rather than relying solely on intuition, having the right tools can make all the difference. With the OHLC Range Map, traders can gain a clearer understanding of price action, which helps identify whether a dip is worth buying 💰. Strategies for Predicting Buy the Dip Levels 📍 Spot the Dip Using 4 VWAPS set to Century Spot the Dip Using OHLC Range Map 1. Spot the Dip Using 4 VWAPS set to Century 🎯 Load 4 VWAPs on the chart, and configure them as follow: 1st VWAP: Source - Open, Period - Century 2st VWAP: Source - High, Period - Century 3rd VWAP: Source - Low, Period - Century 4th VWAP: Source - Close, Period - Century When the price approaches key support or resistance zones, such as VWAP bands, particularly for well-established assets like ES, NQ, BTC, NVDA, AAPL, and others, there's a high probability of price reversal. By combining this with price action analysis, you can identify precise entry points for a position with greater accuracy. 2. Spot the Dip Using OHLC Range Map 👀 The OHLC Range Map is a powerful statistical tool designed to plot key Manipulation (M) and Distribution levels over a specific time period. By visualizing these levels, traders can gain insights into market behavior and potential price movements. For example, when analyzing the ES chart, we can observe that the bearish distribution level has already been reached for the next 12 months. This suggests that the market may be poised for a reversal, with the expectation of higher prices in the near future. By identifying these critical levels, traders can anticipate market trends and adjust their strategies accordingly. Key Takeaways 🔍📊 Buy the Dip (BTD): The BTD strategy involves buying assets after a temporary price drop, expecting a price rebound. Enhancing BTD Predictions: Using OHLC Range Map and 4 VWAPs on TradingView improves the accuracy of Buy the Dip predictions. Spotting the Dip with 4 VWAPs: Configuring 4 VWAPs (Open, High, Low, Close) on a chart helps identify key support and resistance zones for potential price reversals. Using the OHLC Range Map: The OHLC Range Map helps pinpoint Manipulation and Distribution levels, aiding in market trend anticipation and timing. Combining Tools for Precision: Integrating the OHLC Range Map and VWAPs with price action analysis allows for more accurate Buy the Dip entry points.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by CandelaCharts
Bitcoin and Elliott Wave Principles This is a good example showing how Bitcoin adheres to Elliott Wave Rules, as does everything in the Market. As stated other publications, the Elliott Wave Theory is more than just a Theory but how the market works. Bitcoin won't always buy, there will be ups and downs. Timing is key. If there is an over-investment just before the top of Wave B, ''Buy The Dip'', this would lead to unimaginable losses. This is what people call ''Stock Market Crash''. To Elliott Wave Theorists, this is a simple Wave 4.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by machariavictor017
33
THE IMPORTANCE OF TREND FOLLOWINGMost people tend to not check the overall trend not knowing that could potential be a danger to their trades and account If the overall trend is a downtrend(making lower lows and lower high)- you should look only for selling entries especially if you trade bigger time frames(M15 to upwards). However it's not that simple or everyone would be making millions of dollars lol. when you check the overall trend you should make sure the swing lows and high are clear, strong and the bearish/bullish pressure(volatility) should also be strong and clear if one of these is missing then it's best to stay away from the market or you'll become liquidity for other trades😂 so all in all, combine your Trend following with liquidity and market volatility.
CAPITALCOM:UK100Education
by StarleXtheTrader
Understanding Trump - Chapter 2: Excessive DebtChapter 2: Excessive Debt The U.S. debt problem has already reached a critical level. As of July 2024, U.S. debt has reached $35 trillion, with interest payments exceeding defense spending. Paying off this debt is virtually impossible, especially since politicians rely on public support. It’s almost unthinkable for them to cut spending, knowing that doing so would weaken the economy. Who would vote for someone whose policies make their lives more difficult? So, the method the U.S. has relied on has been simple: Keep printing dollars, trigger inflation, and devalue the currency to reduce the real burden of debt. This has been the U.S.'s go-to strategy for a long time, and for a while, it worked. When money flows into the market, the private sector thrives. Up until the Biden administration, this approach seemed to be working to some extent. But during the COVID-19 pandemic, an excessive amount of money was injected into the economy, pushing inflation beyond a sustainable level and accelerating the pace of debt accumulation beyond control. Where Does U.S. Debt Come From? The U.S. debt problem largely stems from two sources: trade deficits and government spending deficits. - Government Spending Deficit The key to reducing government spending is "DODGE." As many people have noticed, Elon Musk has been aggressively cutting jobs. A typical politician could never do this, but both Trump and Elon Musk come from business backgrounds, so they don’t have the same aversion to making these kinds of tough decisions. Of course, cutting government spending and reducing the money supply will help control inflation. While this will be beneficial for the future of the U.S. economy, in the short term, it will hit the current economy hard. Historically, the U.S. stock market has risen whenever the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates or the government injected money into the economy. That is, stock prices increased when there was more money circulating in the market. However, if Trump moves forward with spending cuts, it will likely have a negative impact on the stock market. Industries heavily reliant on government-funded projects may experience declining stock prices over the next 1–2 years. Of course, the future is uncertain, but it might be wise to explore investment opportunities outside these sectors. - Trade Deficit & Tariff Policy The U.S. is looking to resolve its trade deficit through tariff policies. The strategy involves pressuring companies to move manufacturing back to the U.S. Currently, Trump has stated that he plans to impose tariffs on all countries worldwide. However, in practice, it is unlikely that he will follow through with this on such a broad scale. The worst-case scenario for the U.S. would be if the country imposes tariffs on everyone, while other nations trade freely among themselves. This would severely undermine the competitiveness of American products, forcing U.S. consumers to pay significantly higher prices for lower-quality goods. If this situation persists—where U.S. trade shrinks while other countries' trade flourishes—it could even lead to global doubts about the necessity of using the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Trump’s real strategy likely isn’t to tax all nations equally. Instead, he’s positioning himself in negotiations: Some countries will face high tariffs. Some will face lower tariffs, depending on the deal they strike with the U.S. The Shift Toward a Block Economy The global economic landscape is shifting away from full-scale free trade toward a "block economy" system. Going forward, the world will likely be divided into three or four major economic blocs, where countries within each bloc benefit from tariff exemptions. The U.S.-led economic block will likely include: - Countries that possess semiconductor or high tech material industries but lack food and resource self-sufficiency, making them dependent on the U.S. - Countries with cheap labor forces but structural limitations that prevent them from becoming major global powers. -Countries where the U.S. can have a trade surplus The primary goal of the U.S. in structuring block is to ensure that economic benefits from trade with the U.S. do not ultimately flow into "China". Additionally, the U.S. is actively working to weaken competing economic blocs, particularly the one led by China—BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). This is one of Trump’s top priorities. It is also why the U.S. has recently been more lenient toward Russia, despite it being part of BRICS. The strategy is simple: split Russia from China. Russia is rich in natural resources, and if the U.S. can pull it away from China’s economic influence, it will significantly weaken China’s position. Of course, the goal is not to completely ruin China, but rather to prevent it from challenging U.S. hegemony, similar to Japan's 'Lost 30 Years.' Instead of completely cutting off trade, the aim is to regulate it within limits that benefit U.S. dominance.
Education
by hcinteractivegames
Different Shades of DisciplineIn my decade of trading experience I've come to realize through huge number of trials and errors that discipline in trading is a rather unique and not always universal beast. While there are definitely broad categories of discipline trading like taking high-quality setups, correctly managing risk, taking profits, and so on; There are also many unique underlying reasons and mind-tangled cognitive dissonances that can become the cause of these lapses. What I understood in my experience is that discipline seems to be transferrable from 1 area to another. Addicted to smoking? Perhaps, quitting can be beneficial to one's trading. However, not necessarily as some traders smoke (and can't quit that habit) for a different underlying reason and thus quitting for them might NOT be as beneficial for the former one. The devil seems to be in the details. Why one smokes? Is it a coping mechanism for stress, or is it a little ritual that one employs to consciously recalibrate themselves? The key seems to be in action and number of trials and experiments. Attempting to try the routine of other people might not yield the best results for the expended effort. One person may run for many miles and enjoy that time, for another it will be excruciating agony to do that. The discipline required in that example would obviously be vastly different, and thus the effect that action produces also - different. At the end of the day - the most important thing in trading is consistency, but coupled with PERSONAL unique discipline is something that gives us edge in the markets.
Education
by Lightwork_
What happens if you give a TikTok trader a billion dollars?In this video, I covered the topic of accumulation and distribution of large positions. I explained why big market players prefer using limit orders when building and offloading their positions. I also talked about how retail traders — who I often call TikTok traders — tend to rely on market orders, and why the price is more likely to move against the masses of TikTok traders. Understanding this is crucial when analyzing what’s really going on "under the hood" of the market. I’ll dive deeper into this in my upcoming posts. So don’t miss out! Subscribe!
Education
by supremum_ar
2
How to Backtest a Trading Strategy on TradingViewBacktesting is an essential part of developing a profitable trading strategy. It allows you to test how your system would have performed in past market conditions before risking real money. In this guide, I’ll walk you through the step-by-step process of backtesting using TradingView’s Bar Replay Tool and other key methods. By the end, you’ll be able to analyze and optimize your strategy for better results. 📌 Step 1: Open Your Chart & Select a Timeframe The first step in backtesting is choosing the right chart and timeframe based on your trading style: Scalping → 1-minute (M1) or 5-minute (M5) charts Day Trading → 15-minute (M15) or 1-hour (H1) charts Swing Trading → 4-hour (H4) or daily (D1) charts Select the asset you want to test (stocks, forex, crypto, indices, etc.) and ensure there’s enough historical data available. Enough available data in this chart: ⏳ Step 2: Activate the Bar Replay Tool TradingView’s Bar Replay Tool lets you scroll back in time and simulate live market conditions. Here’s how to use it: Click on the "Replay" button in the top toolbar. Select a point in the past where you want to begin your test. The chart will "rewind," hiding future price action. At this stage, you’re looking at the market as if it were happening in real-time. This prevents hindsight bias, which is when you unconsciously adjust decisions based on already knowing the outcome. Enable it here: Then choose a point on the chart: 📈 Step 3: Apply Your Trading Strategy Now, it’s time to apply your chosen strategy. This could be: Indicator-based strategies (e.g., EMA crossovers, MACD signals, RSI divergences). Price action trading (e.g., support/resistance levels, candlestick patterns, chart patterns). Algorithmic or rule-based trading (e.g., entry and exit conditions based on technical indicators). The strategies above are just some examples so make sure to use your own strategy. Make sure to document your trade setup, including: ✅ Entry conditions (What triggers a trade?) ✅ Stop-loss placement (Where do you exit if wrong?) ✅ Take-profit target (What is the goal?) ✅ Risk-to-reward ratio (Is it worth taking the trade?) Here is an example how to draw it out on your chart: ▶️ Step 4: Play the Market & Record Your Trades Now comes the real testing phase: Press "Play" or use the "Step Forward" button to move price action forward bar by bar. When a trade setup appears, log it in a trading journal or spreadsheet. Record: Entry price Stop-loss level Take-profit target Win/Loss outcome You can use a simple Google Sheet, Excel or Notion template to track results. The more data you collect, the better your analysis will be later. 📊 Step 5: Analyze Your Results & Optimize After backtesting at least 50-100 trades, it’s time to analyze the performance of your strategy. Here are some key metrics to review: Win Rate (%) → How many trades were profitable? Risk-to-Reward Ratio → Are your winners bigger than your losers? Drawdowns → What’s the worst losing streak your system encountered? Market Conditions → Did your strategy perform better in trends or ranging markets? 🚀 Final Thoughts Backtesting is a crucial step for any serious trader. It allows you to: ✅ Gain confidence in your strategy. ✅ Identify weaknesses and make adjustments. ✅ Avoid trading systems that don’t work before losing real money. However, keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. After backtesting, it’s best to forward-test your strategy in a demo account before using real capital. __________________________________________ Have you backtested your strategy before? What were your results? Let me know in the comments! 💬
FPMARKETS:US100Education
by TehThomas
26
Different Ways to Manage Your TradesFinding the perfect trade setup is just one part of the equation. How you manage that trade can be the difference between consistent profits and missed opportunities. In this video, I’ll break down the different ways you can manage your trades and how each method impacts your results. We’ll cover essential trade management techniques, including setting fixed take-profits and stop-loss levels, using trailing stops to lock in gains, scaling out of positions with partial profits, and actively monitoring trades for dynamic adjustments. Each method has its own strengths and weaknesses, and the key is finding what aligns with your trading style, risk tolerance, and market conditions. I’ll also share insights on how I utilize trade management to maximize returns while keeping risk under control. Whether you prefer a hands-off approach or actively managing your trades in real time, this video will help you refine your execution and make smarter decisions. Watch the full breakdown now, and let me know in the comments, how do you manage your trades? - R2F Trading
Education
by Road_2_Funded
The Beauty of Elliott Wave.Wave 3 corrects in a Flat formation that is exactly 100% of Green Wave A. Upon completion, there is beautiful retest and a big move downwards to complete Blue Wave C and hence Wave 4 of the Flat. Wave 4 also corrects at 50% of the Red Wave 3. This whole Flat occurs between 161.8% and 261.8% of the main Wave. This is a weekly time frame and these are some massive moves showing that the market obeys Elliott Wave Principles at all levels of time.
IG:DOWEducation
by machariavictor017
Order Imbalance and Change Point Detection█ Order Imbalance and Change Point Detection Trading might sometimes seem like magic, but at its core, the market operates on simple principles, supply and demand, and the flow of information. Recent academic work shows that retail traders can gain an edge even without expensive data feeds by understanding some fundamental ideas, like order imbalance and change point detection. In this article, we break down key concepts such as order imbalance, sudden volume shifts, change point detection, and the CUSUM algorithm. We also explain how retail traders can apply these ideas to improve their strategies. █ What Is the Order Book and Order Imbalance? ⚪ The Order Book Every market has an order book, simply a list of all buy orders (bids) and sell orders (asks) for an asset. ⚪ Order Imbalance – A Key Indicator Order imbalance measures the difference between the total buying and selling orders for the order book. Definition: Order imbalance is the difference in volume between buy orders and sell orders. Why It Matters: A strong imbalance means one side (buyers or sellers) is dominating. For example, if there are significantly more buy orders than sell orders, the market may be gearing up for a price increase. ⚪ How It’s Detected in Research: Researchers calculate a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) across multiple price levels in the order book (typically the top 20 levels) and compare it to the mid-market price. A positive imbalance indicates aggressive buying, while a negative imbalance suggests selling pressure. █ Sudden Volume Shifts and Change Point Detection ⚪ Sudden Volume Shifts What It Means: Sometimes, there is an abrupt and noticeable change in the number of orders placed. This sudden shift in volume can signal a big move on the horizon. Example: In a trading context, this might be seen when volume bars spike unexpectedly on a price chart, often accompanying rapid price moves or breakouts. ⚪ Why They Are Crucial: Sudden volume increases often coincide with significant order flow events. For instance, if a large number of buy orders hit the market at once, this could indicate a rapid shift in trader sentiment and serve as a precursor to a sustained price move. █ Change Point Detection – Spotting the Shift Definition: Change point detection is a statistical technique used to identify the exact moment when the properties of a data series change significantly. Purpose: In trading, it helps distinguish meaningful shifts in market behavior from random noise. How It’s Used: Researchers apply this to order imbalance data to flag moments when the market’s buying or selling pressure changes abruptly. These flagged moments (or “change points”) can then be used to forecast short-term price movements. █ Meet CUSUM: The Cumulative Sum Algorithm CUSUM stands for Cumulative Sum. It’s a simple yet powerful algorithm that detects changes in a data series over time. ⚪ How CUSUM Works: Tracking Deviations: The algorithm continuously adds up minor differences (or deviations) from an expected value (like a running average). Signal for Change: When the cumulative sum exceeds a predetermined threshold, it signals that a significant change has occurred. In Trading: CUSUM can be applied to measure the order imbalance. When the cumulative deviation is high enough, it indicates a strong change in market pressure, an early warning signal for a potential price move. For example, a rising cumulative sum based on increasing buy-side pressure might indicate that the price will likely move upward. █ How Can Retail Traders Benefit Without Full LOB Data? Full access to the order book (all price levels and orders) can be expensive and is usually reserved for institutional traders. However, retail traders can still gain valuable insights by: ⚪ Using Proxies for Order Imbalance: Many trading platforms offer basic volume indicators. Look for volume spikes or unusual shifts in trading volume as a sign that order imbalance might occur. ⚪ Leveraging Simplified Change Detection: Even if you don’t have complex LOB data, you can set up simple alerts on your trading platform. For instance, you might create a custom indicator that watches for rapid increases in volume or price moves, similar to a basic version of the CUSUM algorithm. ⚪ Focusing on Key Price Levels: Even with limited data, monitor support and resistance levels. A sudden break (accompanied by high volume) can serve as a proxy for a change in market dynamics. ⚪ Adopting a Data-Driven Mindset: Integrate these concepts into your routine analysis. When you see a significant volume shift or a sudden spike in activity, consider it a potential “change point” and adjust your strategy accordingly. █ In Summary Order Imbalance measures the difference between buying and selling volumes in the order book, offering insights into market direction. Sudden Volume Shifts are significant changes in trading volume that can signal a shift in market sentiment. Change Point Detection helps identify the precise moments when these shifts occur, filtering out noise and highlighting actionable signals. CUSUM is a powerful tool that continuously tracks cumulative deviations in market data, alerting traders when the market undergoes a significant change. For retail traders, these methods underscore the importance of watching price and understanding the underlying order flow. While you might not have access to full-depth order book data, using volume indicators and setting up alert systems can help you capture the essence of these insights, providing a valuable edge in your trading decisions. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
2
Russia-Ukraine-Europe: Forex Impact Hello, I am Professional Trader Andrea Russo. Today I want to share with you a reflection on the current geopolitical situation, in particular on the war in Ukraine and its global implications. The latest developments show us an increasingly complex panorama: America seems to have taken an ambiguous position, with signals that could be interpreted as a rapprochement with Putin. This has led to an intensification of the conflict between Russia and Europe, with consequences that could redefine the global balance. The current situation and its implications The war in Ukraine, which has been going on for years now, has had a devastating impact not only on the military front, but also on the economic and political front. Recently, the United States' decision to limit the flow of intelligence to Ukraine has favored the Russian advance in some strategic areas. This change in approach has raised doubts about the real American position and has fueled tensions between Western allies. Europe, for its part, is in a delicate position. On the one hand, it faces economic pressures from sanctions against Russia; on the other, it must maintain a united front to support Ukraine. However, the lack of a clear strategy could lead to internal divisions and a weakening of its global position. In this context, the European Union recently announced an ambitious €800 billion plan for rearmament, called "ReArm Europe". This plan aims to strengthen European defense through significant investments, including €650 billion from national resources and €150 billion from loans guaranteed by the community budget.2 The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stressed that we live in an era of rearmament and that Europe must be ready to defend itself autonomously. The impact on the Forex world This geopolitical situation has inevitably had repercussions on the Forex market. The war in Ukraine has already caused significant volatility in global currencies, with the euro coming under pressure due to economic uncertainties in Europe. At the same time, the US dollar has shown relative strength, but recent ambiguity in US foreign policy could weaken this position. Emerging market currencies, especially those close to the conflict, remain highly vulnerable. The Russian ruble, for example, has seen significant swings, reflecting economic sanctions and the country's internal dynamics. What to expect going forward Looking ahead, the forex market is likely to remain highly volatile. Investors will need to closely monitor geopolitical developments and adjust their strategies accordingly. The key will be to maintain a flexible approach and diversify portfolios to mitigate the risks associated with this global uncertainty. In conclusion, the current situation presents an unprecedented challenge for traders and investors. However, with a well-planned strategy and careful analysis of the context, it is possible to navigate through these turbulent waters and identify investment opportunities.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Understanding Trump and future of US and BTCUnderstanding Trump As investors, we constantly analyze news and charts to find opportunities to make money. But today, I want to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. This is a story about Donald Trump. Predicting his future actions could be key to making profits in various markets. Lately, Trump may seem like a madman—Hunting down on illegal immigrants, imposing tariffs on countries, trying to befriend Russia, and being outright rude to other alliences. He even once demanded that Greenland be put up for sale. Over the next few chapters, I’ll explain my idea about why Trump does what he does. You will realize he’s not as crazy as he seems. Hopefully, this will help us gain some foresight into the future and, in turn, make profitable investments. Chapter 1 : The U.S. A Frog in a Boiling Pot From Trump’s perspective, America today is like a frog sitting in a pot of water that’s about to boil. Not just lukewarm, but dangerously close to reaching a boiling point. Like a setting sun, the U.S. is slowly losing its position as the world's dominant superpower and is, in his eyes, on the verge of decline. What we are feeling about US is more like this. On the surface, it looks like things are going well. Ordinary Americans seem to be doing fine, the stock market keeps hitting new highs, employment numbers are strong, and the U.S. military remains the most powerful in the world. There are no obvious signs that America is losing its status as the world’s leading power. But Trump sees things differently. In his view, if the U.S. continues on its current path, it will eventually lose its dominance to China and decline into a second-tier nation, much like Britain or Spain. Why does he think that? This perspective is likely influenced by books like Ray Dalio’s The Changing World Order and Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. These books analyze how once-great powers—such as Britain, the Roman Empire, and Spain—declined over time. They outline three key reasons why major powers historically collapse: 1 Excessive debt – Poor government management and uncontrolled money printing lead to inflation. 2 Overextension through war or expansion – Excessive military spending due to prolonged wars or imperial overreach. 3 Extreme wealth inequality and social conflict – Rising tensions and divisions among the population. And I would add one more factor to this list. 4 Failure to adapt to new economic, social, and technological trends - Trump believes that these factors are causing the U.S. to lose its status as the world's leading power. In a few decades, he sees America becoming like Britain—reminiscing about its past glory—or like Russia—resource-rich but lacking real global influence. So, will the U.S. really decline? "The water in the pot is already getting hot. No one knows exactly when it will start boiling, but if these four factors continue fueling the fire, eventually, it will."
Education
by hcinteractivegames
1
Behind the Buy&Sell Strategy: What It Is and How It WorksWhat is a Buy&Sell Strategy? A Buy&Sell trading strategy involves buying and selling financial instruments with the goal of profiting from short- or medium-term price fluctuations. Traders who adopt this strategy typically take long positions, aiming for upward profit opportunities. This strategy involves opening only one trade at a time, unlike more complex strategies that may use multiple orders, hedging, or simultaneous long and short positions. Its management is simple, making it suitable for less experienced traders or those who prefer a more controlled approach. Typical Structure of a Buy&Sell Strategy A Buy&Sell strategy consists of two key elements: 1) Entry Condition Entry conditions can be single or multiple, involving the use of one or more technical indicators such as RSI, SMA, EMA, Stochastic, Supertrend, etc. Classic examples include: Moving average crossover Resistance breakout Entry on RSI oversold conditions Bullish MACD crossover Retracement to the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci levels Candlestick pattern signals 2) Exit Condition The most common exit management methods for a long trade in a Buy&Sell strategy fall into three categories: Take Profit & Stop Loss Exit based on opposite entry conditions Percentage on equity Practical Example of a Buy&Sell Strategy Entry Condition: Bearish RSI crossover below the 30 level (RSI oversold entry). Exit Conditions: Take profit, stop loss, or percentage-based exit on the opening price.
Education
by thequantscience
1