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Beyond Technical Analysis

Learn What Will Make You Profitable in Forex & Gold Trading What brings the consistent profits in trading? Talking to hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the globe, I realized that there are the common misconceptions concerning that subject. In this educational article, we will discuss what really will make you profitable in trading. Trading Signals 🔔The first thing that 99% of struggling traders are looking for is signals. Why damn learn if you can simply follow the trades of a pro trader and make money?! The truth is, however, is that in order to repeat the performance of a signal provider you have to open all your trading positions in the same exact moment he does. (And I would not even mention the fact that there will be a delay between the moment the provider opens the trade and the moment he sends you the signal) Because the signal can be sent at a random moment, quite often it will take time for you to reach your trading terminal and open the position. Just a 1-minute delay may dramatically change the risk to reward ration of the trade and, hence, the final result. Expert Advisors 🤖The second thing that really attracts the struggling traders is trading robots (EA) . The systems that trade automatically and aimed to generate consistent profits. You simply start the program and wait for the money. The main problem with EA is the fact that it requires constant monitoring . It can stop or freeze in a random moment and may require a reboot. Moreover, due to changing market conditions, the EA should be regularly updated. Without the updates, at some moment it may blow your account. Trading robot is the work : trading with the robots means their constant development, monitoring and improvement. And that work requires a high level of experience: both in coding and in trading. Technical Indicators 📈The third thing that struggling traders are seeking is the "magic" indicator. The one that will accurately identify the safe points to buy and sell. You add the indicator on the chart, and you simply wait for the signal to open the trade. The fact is that magic indicators do not exist. Indicator is the tool that can be applied as the extra confirmation. It should be applied strictly in a combination with something else, and its proper application requires a high level of expertise in trading. Luck in Trading 🍀The fourth thing that newbie traders seek is luck. They open the trade, and then they pray the God, Powell, Fed or someone else to move the market in their favour. And yes, occasionally, luck will be on your side. But relying on luck on a long-term basis, you are doomed to fail. But what will make you profitable then? What is the secret ingredient. Remember, that secret ingredient does not exist. In order to become a consistently profitable traders, you should rely on 4 crucial elements: trading plan, risk management, discipline and correct mindset. 🧠What is correct mindset in trading? It simply means setting REALISTIC goals and having REALISTIC expectations from the market and from your trading. 📝A trading plan is the set of rules and conditions that you apply for the search of a trading setup and the management of the opened position. Trading plan will be considered to be good if it is back tested on historical data and then tested on demo account for at least 3 consequent months. ✔️In order to follow the plan consistently, you need to be disciplined . You should be prepared for losing streaks, and you should be strong enough to not break once your trading account will be in a drawdown. 💰Risk management is one of the most important elements of your trading plan. It defines your risk per trade and your set of actions in case of losses. Even the best trading strategies may fail because of poor risk management. Combining these 4 elements, you will become a consistently profitable trader. Remember, that there is no easy way, no shortcut. Trading is a hard work to be done. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️

Education

by VasilyTrader

Let's speak about savings...Hey guys, As I've lately taken great interest in publishing my trading ideas here on TradingView, I want to speak about something that rarely if ever gets spoken about in the trading community, by trading community I mean us goobers on charts who do intra-day, swing, day trading etc... who get sad for not making 10% a month on forex etc... That is your savings, specifically investing your savings on a long term basis and compound the interest earned by the dividend yields. Useless to say that I'll be speaking about the S&P 500 and how you can approach it too. First of all, you can't directly buy the S&P500 that you see here on trading view, as this is an index and in order for you to invest in the performance of the index you need to buy into ETFs, mutual funds, or derivatives like options and futures that are designed to track it. There are many big funds around, like iShares, Fidelity, Vanguard, Amundi etc... To be honest the one I personally invest into is the Core S&P 500 USD Acc from iShares that auto compounds the dividends but you really can choose between tens of funds. The key factors that you must keep into consideration when choosing a fund are these: - Currency of the fund (what currency is the fund based on)= if it is another country's currency, you'll have to exchange it every time you want to make an entry, amounting to extra commissions and fees that aren't sexy. - Dividends= if the fund pays out dividends, if it pays it in cash or shares or if it self reinvests them or it doesn't... - Tax residency of the fund (on which exchange is the Fund/ETF listed on)= important as when it will come to pay your taxes, some funds may have extra taxes due to the residency/exchange. Now... let's get to the sauce, you have probably heard about DCA (Dollar Cost Average) as it's been rubbed on your face by everyone who never looked at a chart, and that's a valid approach if you are 50, but we spend half of our days on the charts so we want to work based on charts and price, not on time. My philosophy behind this is that, if our goal is maximizing profit while spreading entries evenly, we should aim to get the best entries, and how could time, which has nothing to do with price, dictate our entries? It is quite literally putting your finger down randomly on the chart and choosing to enter there. There is a way easier and more effective approach, and that's basing yourself on price by simply buying the dip. Yes, I quite literally wrote all of this article just to tell you to buy the dips, but here's a little practical example on why buying the dip performs better than DCA and what values you could look for yourself to try to optimize your entries. The most basic approach to DCA is to buy a set amount each month, for the sake of the example let's say you would have bought $1000 worth of shares every 30 days starting from Feb/2022, your entries would have been spread out randomly and you would end up with roughly $42.000 today, which would be more if you reinvested all the dividends and profits. A better approach would be buying each time there is a dip of X percentage in price. If during the same time we would have bought about 200$ every time price dipped 1.25% we would have made 192 entries and made around $51.000 without compounding interest and dividends, then that would be closer to 55.000 - 60.000. All of this just by basing ourself on price and not time. You wouldn't evaluate taste with sounds, or sounds with numbers... so why evaluate numbers with time? Rather stick to what the chart itself does and get the best spread out entries possible, like this not only you would make more money, but have way more entries spread out through the chart for about the same initial capital, which is not bad when you are planning to long term invest. To wrap it up, my practical example is buying the S&P500 (or another index you like), every time price drops of 1.25% - 1.75% in a single day, and compound interest every time you get a entry. Like this you'll set yourself an long term investment fund that will grow exponentially through the years and help you more than save your money through the years. As as we all know but not admit that spending comes easy when money is laying around, so stash the unnecessary and see it grow ;) the numbers in the example are rough estimates but give the actual idea of performance, and excuse me for the simplicity of the argument but it always comes handy

Education

Should traditional crypto traders quit manual trading?Have you ever experienced FOMO buying or panic selling? I believe most human traders have, to some extent. Should traditional crypto traders quit manual trading? For most, the answer is yes. This is especially true for those using high leverage (e.g., 100x). There are countless stories of traders turning capital into 100-fold gains within a month, only to be liquidated on a single trade they were overly confident about, leading to bankruptcy. In the Forex market, non-professionals trade out of necessity—whether for travel or business. These participants are indifferent to small price fluctuations, creating profit opportunities for traders. However, in the crypto market, newbies are often the lambs led to slaughter. Most newcomers lose their funds and quit within a month. As a result, crypto trading has become a zero-sum game between human traders, quant traders, AI traders, and long-term investors. The biggest weaknesses of manual trading are emotional control and inconsistent risk management. In the long run, human traders simply don’t have the statistical edge. As an alternative, becoming a successful quant trader is possible—but it requires extra effort, big capital, and luck. The competition is tough as well. Tradingview provides fantastic tools for this purpose.

Education

No More Noise:Focus on Your Decisions to Enhance Trading Success Imagine sailing through stormy seas, surrounded by countless navigational tools, each offering conflicting directions. This metaphor vividly captures the reality faced by many traders in today's frenetic market landscape, where information overload can easily drown out clarity and sound judgment. The incessant barrage of real-time news, technical charts, and market statistics creates a chaotic environment that can overwhelm even the most seasoned professionals. Moreover, in a society dominated by social media, we find ourselves perpetually distracted, disconnected from our goals, and conflicted in our decision-making. Each day, our smartphones inundate us with notifications that contribute to the noise of daily life, making it increasingly difficult to remain focused on our plans and decisions. The Challenge of Information Overload in Trading In the trading realm, information overload is a relentless opponent. It refers to a condition in which an excessive amount of data obscures judgment and hampers effective decision-making. The stakes are high, with fastest-moving markets generating streams of news, charts, algorithmic signals, and social media updates, all competing for our attention. Rather than fostering clarity, this avalanche of data can paralyze traders, leading them to either over-analyze situations or act impulsively. Understanding information overload's implications and developing strategies to combat it is vital for anyone seeking to optimize their trading performance. The ability to filter through the chaos and focus on actionable insights can set one up for success in volatile markets. The Psychological Toll of Information Overload The psychological burden of information overload can deeply affect traders, producing an array of negative emotional responses such as stress, fatigue, and anxiety. The constant flood of data can lead to analysis paralysis, a state where the trader struggles to make decisions due to overwhelming choices. This can manifest in two harmful ways: decision fatigue—which leads to hasty, unconsidered actions—and excessive deliberation, causing missed opportunities. Traders grappling with this cognitive overload may encounter heightened anxiety and impaired judgment, making them susceptible to emotional decisions driven by fear or greed. Studies indicate that elevated levels of stress disrupt logical thinking, further complicating the decision-making process. Addressing this psychological challenge requires a disciplined approach to manage data overload. Implementing strategies to filter out noise and prioritize essential information can significantly enhance decision-making capabilities and lead to more consistent trading results. Poor Trading Decisions Fueled by Information Overload The impact of information overload on trading decisions can lead to costly mistakes. When inundated with signals from charts, news feeds, and market alerts, traders risk overtrading, misinterpreting trends, and hesitating on vital opportunities. Overtrading often occurs when traders react to minor price fluctuations or conflicting indicators without a clear strategy. This can result in excessive transaction costs and diminished returns. Conversely, misinterpretation of trends can happen when traders focus on irrelevant metrics, leading them to ignore critical data points that influence market movements. Research indicates that traders exposed to data overload miss trading opportunities 30% more frequently. To combat these pitfalls, traders must streamline their processes and focus on high-value information, enhancing their readiness to make informed, timely decisions. Strategies to Manage Information Overload in Trading Effectively managing information overload is crucial for traders seeking sound decision-making and profitability. Here are several strategies designed to curb data noise and allow traders to concentrate on actionable insights: 1. Narrow Your Data Sources Identify and focus on a few essential data sources that directly impact your strategy. Instead of attempting to absorb every market update, prioritize key indicators that are relevant to your trades, such as: - Economic calendars and central bank announcements for forex traders. - Earnings reports and sector-specific news for stock traders. By narrowing your focus, you can minimize distractions and optimize your analysis. 2. Utilize Automation and Filters Automation tools are invaluable for simplifying the trading process. Alerts, AI-driven analyses, and algorithmic scanners can filter out extraneous information, ensuring you only see insights pertinent to your strategy. Automation allows you to allocate mental resources to the analysis that matters most. 3. Leverage Trading Dashboards Customizable trading dashboards consolidate vital data points—charts, news updates, and metrics—into a single interface. This significantly enhances efficiency and reduces the need to switch between screens, allowing traders to hone in on the information that truly matters. 4. Employ News Aggregators Tools like Bloomberg and Reuters can help traders prioritize high-impact news updates by curating content that aligns with their focus. The result is a streamlined approach to news that presents only relevant information, reducing confusion during trading hours. 5. Use Economic Calendars Economic calendars track significant market-moving events, enabling traders to prepare for volatility. By filtering events based on their relevance, such as high-impact announcements for specific currency pairs, traders can better anticipate market shifts without unnecessary distractions. 6. Implement Sentiment Analysis Tools Market sentiment can provide critical context for trading decisions. Tools that analyze sentiment from various sources can help traders gauge market mood, guiding decisions during turbulent periods. Balancing Data and Intuition in Trading While data-driven analysis is fundamental to trading success, intuition—gained through experience—also plays a crucial role. Finding the right balance between data and gut instinct can lead to more effective decision-making. Data serves as a reliable starting point, offering insights into patterns and trends. However, an overemphasis on data can create paralysis, particularly in uncertain situations. Developing a nuanced understanding of market behavior through experience can complement data-driven analysis, allowing traders to make informed decisions during times of volatility. How to Achieve Balance - Use data to identify trade opportunities but trust your intuition regarding the level of investment. - When faced with conflicting indicators, lean on experience to interpret market sentiment rather than relying solely on algorithms. This harmonious relationship between data and intuition not only improves decision-making but also helps build the confidence necessary to navigate complex markets. Read also: And... Conclusion In an era characterized by rampant information overload, particularly in trading, maintaining focus is more critical than ever. Our connected world, fueled by notifications and social media distractions, mirrors the chaotic nature of trading—demanding that we cut through the noise to concentrate on what matters most. By implementing targeted strategies to filter extraneous information and honing the balance between data and intuition, traders can enhance their decision-making processes. Ultimately, success in trading requires both clarity and discipline—two critical components that allow traders to thrive amidst the tumultuous tides of the market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.

Education

PLR (Path of Least Resistance) Strategy Explanation - $SHOP Hi guys this is a follow up to a post I have just published about my trading idea on shorting NYSE:SHOP , It really doesn't matter if you want to short the market or long the market as it works either way, but for the sake of the example I'll take a 6 months period from the Shopify chart following earnings to better explain you my strategy... This right here is the NYSE:SHOP chart from approx. Jan/2024 to end of Aug/2024, 2 Earnings have been announced, both having great positive surprises, but regardless of the positive surprise (typically bullish indicator), the stock fell of 45%+. Let's add the earnings dates to the chart so that you can better visualize them: What you care about in this image is the earnings dates lined out, as you can see the surprise was positive yet both fell more than 10% in just a day, that I will take as the upcoming trend for at least the time being, till the next earning is announced (so, if for example the 13/Feb earning ended up being bearish, my overview on the market till at least the next earning on 8/May, will be bearish, so all of the trades I will take will be shorts). Now I will line out the trend and the BoSs (breaks of structure) just to better visualize the trend: As you can see the Earning date candles signed the beginning of a down trend twice, pre-announced by the Earning candle itself. The entry strategy is now simple, the idea behind it is to "follow the path of least resistance".. by that I mean that, if your bias is bullish, who enter on candles that are of the opposite direction to the one you are heading to? - Sure you might say that it is to get better entries as ofc, on a short bias, higher sale points = better profits, but the goal here is not maximizing profits, but raising the odds exponentially so that you can take surer trades. I've tested this strategy from Feb/2021 and so far the win rate is 95.6% (123 out of 136 trades profited . The way the entries are spread is this: Basically every time a bearish candle - that closes lower than the previous bearish candle did - is created, a short position of 1% of total equity is generated. The period begins from the beginning of the current earnings season, and closes the day before the next earnings season as it works within a 3 months frame. Each entry HAS to be the lowest bearish candle of the period, example: Only these candles marked in blue count as entries for short positions as their close is lower of more than 0.5% than the previous one, The pink ones are higher than the lowest up to that point, so they do not count as entries as they are technically part of a pullback that is moving in the opposite direction where you are heading. So, going back to the entries, we enter on the close of the lowest bearish candle close up to that point. For safety, we trail the stop loss to the previous high, this is where well defined trend lines come handy: The thick black line is the trend line, and as new lows are broken, I mark those as BoS (break of structure) and until a new one is created, the SL will go to the previous high, and so it goes. (viceversa for buys). We then proceed to target the FVGs left behind by previous quarters: As you can see there are massive gaps in the chart that we will target and identify as FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) and set the TP at the close (lowest point) of the fair value gap. Now comes in your exit strategy... There really are 3 ways that you can tackle this: 1- You set up TP to the lowest FVG of the series (if there are multiple like in this case) 2- You set up TP to the first FVG still open during the quarter following the Earnings Period 3- You tackle both TPs and take each FVG as a partial close to the position (example: if there are 2 FVGs you take out 50% of the position on the first and 50% on the last). But what to do if your positions didn't reach TP (FVG close) before the next Earning or there is no FVG to begin with??? - In the case the TP you have marked out at the close of the FVG didn't reach, you'll proceed to close the position 1 day before the next Earnings is coming, unless your conviction that the FVG will fill in is so high, then you can let those run at your own risk: - In the case in which a FVG is not present then you'll target the previous High (in case of a buy) or Low (in case of a sell) as your TP, utilize the previous low (in case of buy) or previous high (in case of sell) as SL and just let it run: as you can see the 4 trades were all profitable, made little money but sure money in just 15 days Unless I forget anything, this right here, is my strategy. Simple, straight forward, high success rate and doesn't leave anything up to the case. If you have any questions PLEASE leave a comment below and I'll do my best to reply in time ;)

SEducation

How to Know When Alt-Season Is Here?Hello, Traders! If you've been in crypto long enough, you’ve probably heard the term alt-season — that exciting period when altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC), and the market sees massive rallies across smaller assets. But how do you know when an alt-season is about to begin? There are key alt-season indicators that traders watch to spot opportunities before the big moves happen. Let’s break down what alt-season is, how to identify it, and what signs indicate that a market-wide altcoin rally is about to start. 👇🏻 What Is Alt-Season? Alt-season, short for altcoin season, is a market cycle when altcoins (any cryptocurrency that isn’t Bitcoin) outperform Bitcoin and experience rapid price increases. During alt-season, traders shift their focus from Bitcoin to altcoins, leading to: Higher Altcoin Dominance. Increased Liquidity in Smaller-Cap Coins. Massive Rallies in Speculative Assets. Alt-season doesn’t happen randomly; it follows specific market conditions and signals that traders can identify early. Key Indicators That Alt-Season Is Coming 1. Bitcoin Dominance Declines One of the strongest alt-season indicators is the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D). This metric measures Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the entire crypto market. When bitcoin dominance falls, it signals that traders are moving capital into altcoins. If BTC dominance breaks a long-term support level, it often marks the beginning of alt-season. 2. Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin Ethereum (ETH) is the largest altcoin, and its performance typically sets the tone for the broader altcoin market. If ETH/BTC starts trending upward, it’s a strong sign that alt-season could be near. Ethereum often leads the first wave of altcoin breakouts, followed by mid-cap and low-cap coins. 3. Altcoin Market Cap Growth Tracking altcoins' total market cap (MCAP) (excluding Bitcoin) can indicate early alt-season signals. When the altcoin market cap increases while Bitcoin remains stable or declines, it shows capital rotation into altcoins. A sudden spike in the altcoin market cap, especially with volume, indicates growing investor interest. 4. Surge in Crypto Airdrops and ICOs New projects launch aggressively during alt-season, and crypto airdrops become more frequent. If you start seeing airdrop crypto promotions everywhere, it may be a sign that the market is heating up. Many traders hunt for free airdrop crypto opportunities during alt-seasons to get early exposure to new tokens. 5. Social Media and Retail Hype Increases Retail traders often drive the biggest altcoin rallies. Some signs that alt-season is underway: Crypto influencers and X (formerly known as Twitter) threads constantly mention that “alt-season is here.” Crypto airdrops are a trend on social media, with traders looking for ways to get airdrop crypto opportunities. Telegram and Discord groups have become highly active, discussing the “next 100x altcoins.” Final Thoughts The alt-season is one of the most exciting periods in crypto trading. Recognizing the right alt-season indicators can help you enter early, ride the trend, and exit before the hype fades. So, traders, do you think we’re nearing the next alt-season? What’s your go-to strategy during altcoin rallies? Let’s discuss this in the comments!

Education

Are You a Technical or Fundamental Trader? (And Why It Matters)Financial markets are a battleground of opposing forces: buyers vs. sellers, bulls vs. bears, diamond hands vs. paper hands. But one of the oldest rivalries in trading doesn’t involve price movements at all — it’s the ongoing feud between technical and fundamental traders. One side believes the charts hold all the secrets (you, maybe?), while the other insists that cold, hard data dictates market direction (you, maybe?). In this Idea, we break down the two and ask: which side are you on? 📈 The Chartists: The Lost Art of Tape Reading Technical traders are the wizards of the candlestick, seeing patterns where others see chaos. To them, a moving average isn’t just a squiggly line — it’s guidance. Fibonacci levels ? More sacred than grandma’s secret pie recipe. They don’t care if a company just launched the greatest product of the century — if the RSI says it’s overbought, they’re out. Technical analysis thrives on one simple principle: price action reflects all available information and hints at the next possible move. Instead of diving into earnings reports or economic data — the fundamental traders’ bread and butter — technical traders study past price movements, volume, and momentum indicators to predict the next leg up or down. They’re the ones glued to their TradingView charts, eyes darting between support and resistance levels, waiting for the perfect breakout. 💸 The Fundamentalists: Betting on Real-World Events Fundamental traders scoff at the idea that lines on a chart can predict the future. Instead, they dig into earnings reports , economic calendars , and all sorts of reports and data. They believe markets, like everything else in life, move based on value, supply and demand, and macroeconomic forces—not just on price action. To them, a stock isn’t just a ticker symbol; it’s a business with revenues, expenses, and growth prospects. If they’re trading forex , they’re looking at interest rates USINTR and inflation reports USCPI , not head-and-shoulders patterns. The goal? To determine an asset’s intrinsic value and bet on it going up or down, ideally running ahead of the pack. If a company’s earnings are strong, like Spotify’s SPOT latest earnings figures , they buy—regardless of what a stochastic oscillator says. And vice versa, if a company’s earnings are weak, like Google parent Alphabet’s GOOGL latest showing , they sell. 👉👈 Who’s Right? Both, depending on who you ask. Technical traders argue that prices move in patterns, and those patterns repeat. Fundamental traders counter that real-world events drive prices, and charts are just a delayed reflection of reality. The truth may actually be somewhere in the middle — markets are a mix of both. Even the most die-hard fundamentalist will glance at a chart before making a trade, and many technical traders keep an eye on economic calendars to avoid being blindsided by major news. 💡 Why It Matters Your trading style affects everything: the markets you trade, the tools you use, and even your level of stress. If you’re a fundamentals-first trader trying to scalp five-minute charts, you’re in a world of pain. Conversely, if you’re a technical trader attempting to hold trades for years without considering financial data, you might miss obvious warning signs. Understanding your own tendencies can help refine your strategy and improve your results. Are you more comfortable crunching numbers and reading financial statements? You might be in the same boat with other cash-flow guys like Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio. Do you prefer spotting patterns and reacting to price action? Say hello to your billionaire buddies Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller. 💚 Final Thoughts Bottom line, trading isn’t about proving one method superior — it’s about making the right decisions, and, let’s be frank, turning a profit. Whether you’re a chart junkie or an earnings aficionado, what matters most is having a strategy that works for you. So now the big question… which side are you on? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Comment below and let’s see who’s who!

Education

How market goes up and down?Hello guys. more than 80% of the market has no huge order inside. for these zones you should watch Tokyo and London session. if both were down, the NY session will go up and break the start of downtrend. It is simple easy and you must to know the response zone. for this chart it is sort of Parallel. be happy and have a profitable trade(wink)- CM me if any question or have an idea about.

Education

Different Types of W Patterns and How to Trade Them Hello dear KIU_COIN family 🐺 . Recently, I decided to provide some educational content for you, my dear audience, and introduce some essential and basic trading terms. Here’s what you should know: In these lessons, we will cover three different seasons: 🔹 Season 1: Reversal and continuation patterns. 🔹 Season 2: How to use RSI and other indicators to find good entry points. 🔹 Season 3: Definitions of Fibonacci and seasonality in trading. Stay tuned for valuable insights! 🚀 ✅ For the first section of 🔹 Season 1 , I’ll be covering W patterns— a well-known bullish reversal pattern : As you can see in the chart above, we usually have three types of W recovery patterns , which are the most important ones for us. However, in this section, we just want to get a general understanding of them. In the upcoming section, we will learn how to trade them and explore how they actually appear on the chart and the story behind them ! ✅ This is the first and most common type of W pattern: ✅ This is the second type of W pattern: ✅ This is the third type of W pattern: Ok, guys; I think this is enough for today, and I hope you enjoyed this educational content. However, don't forget to ask your questions below and support me with your likes and follows for more of this content. 🐺🔥

Education

The Questions That Matter, How, What and When Trading Into Key Areas: The Questions That Matter, How, What and When 📌 "Price has reached a key level—now what?" Many traders fixate on areas where price should react but fail to ask why it might react or how it arrived there. To improve decision-making, we need a structured approach that goes beyond simply marking levels on a chart. But understand this—trading is not merely about lines on a chart. It is about navigating complexity with clarity. The market is a vast, dynamic system, governed by the collective psychology of its participants. If you fail to structure your thinking properly, you will become lost in randomness, reacting emotionally instead of acting with discipline. Let’s impose order on the chaos. The Three Critical Questions ✅ 1. How did price arrive? A slow, controlled approach (efficient) suggests institutional order flow—the kind of deliberate, structured movement that signals purpose. A rapid, impulsive move (inefficient) hints at imbalances that may need correcting—gaps in liquidity that create instability. Has liquidity been built up or absorbed? Markets, like nature, do not tolerate inefficiency forever. ✅ 2. What are our expectations? Are we reacting to a level just because it looks right? Because it feels right? Beware of the trap of wishful thinking—price does not care what you believe. Does this area align with broader market structure (e.g. range extremes, supply/demand zones)? Are we leaning on experience or just bias? Are we seeing what is there, or only what we want to see? ✅ 3. What time has price reached this area? Session timing matters—a reaction at a level during the London Open carries more weight than during low-volume periods. Upcoming data releases can shift sentiment instantly—are you trading ahead of event risk, or blindly walking into volatility? Trade With Logic, Not Emotion The market is a relentless teacher, and those who refuse to ask the right questions will be punished accordingly. When price reaches a key area, think before reacting. Ask yourself: "Am I trading the market as it is, or as I wish it to be?" Because the difference between success and failure in trading is the difference between seeing reality for what it is and being blinded by your own assumptions. ⚡ Question: Do you have a checklist for trading key levels? Feel free to comment!

Education

by SERVER_SEVEN

Bearish Phase Continues: XRP's 25% Decline Possible Target $1.80 Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 2 minutes of your time. For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 2 concise lines at the end. I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of market and Ripple. Personal Insight & Technical Analysis of Ripple: It is conceivable that we may witness upward candlestick formations as part of the completion of the ongoing bearish phase. I have depicted this potential scenario clearly on the chart, which should provide clarity on the matter. However, there remains a distinct possibility that Ripple may experience further depreciation from this point. In fact, I foresee an additional decline of at least 25% for this asset, with a target price set at $1.80. The bearish cycle we are currently observing is far from over. One of the significant indicators of its continuation is the failure of spot prices to rise in proportion to their potential, despite initial expectations. Furthermore, these spot prices have consistently fallen in response to Bitcoin's periodic downturns and have not been able to recover their losses following Bitcoin's price recoveries. In simpler terms, it appears that the much-discussed altcoin season in the market has been short-lived. This was particularly evident for certain altcoins, including highly regarded ones such as Ethereum, which failed to achieve the levels of growth many had anticipated. This brings me to a critical observation: why, when Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high, was Ethereum unable to surpass the $5000 threshold? The question becomes even more pressing when we consider that after a market correction, during which Bitcoin regained its position, many other altcoins continued to slide, indicating a lack of positive momentum in the broader market. These factors point to a larger trend of ongoing market weakness, suggesting that additional declines may be inevitable. The inability of Ethereum and other altcoins to capitalize on Bitcoin's strength, especially during a bull run, signals a more complex and challenging market environment. This ongoing pattern highlights the fragility of altcoins, particularly in relation to Bitcoin's dominant influence. Therefore, it seems prudent to expect further downward pressure across the board as we navigate the remaining phases of this cycle." This version aims to be more in-depth, offering both an analysis of the current situation and an explanation of potential future market movements, all while maintaining a professional and polished tone. However , This analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice, and it’s important to be aware of the high risks that come with investing in crypto market and that being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post provided by the 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 We might see some upward candles as part of the current bearish phase, but Ripple could still drop another 25%, with a target price of $1.80. The ongoing market weakness is evident, as spot prices aren’t growing as expected, and altcoins like Ethereum couldn’t capitalize on Bitcoin’s new all-time high. This suggests more declines ahead for the broader market. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋

Education

AMP Futures - How to set alerts for your Watchlist In this idea we will demonstrate how to set alerts for your Watchlist.

Education

03:47

Making money in a downtrend - J is WILD I chose J as my public idea for the day for a lot of reasons -it’s my best idea of the day (it’s #11 on my composite score list) -covering a span of over 1800 trades (real and backtested), it has an AVERAGE gain of 2.9%. -the 1 “losing” trade in all 1800+ was a signal from yesterday which I will boldly predict will become profitable too. -it has a per day held average gain of over 3x that of the S&P500 over those 1800+ trades -it’s right at support and has some more support further down both from previous highs and an unbroken uptrend line going back over 18 months -it has a track record of rebounding nicely after earnings “disappointments” -it’s trading in the middle of its 6 month range But I also chose it to illustrate a point about the way I trade, and it’s one that is very relevant and about to become more relevant, I think. When the market starts to show weakness, people get scared of trading long. And I get that - it’s a valid concern. It’s easier to make money in an uptrend - that’s why so many people who have traded NVDA over the last 2 years think they are amazing traders. Rising tides lift ALL boats, even leaky ones. But making money in ANY environment is the difference maker. J is down a little over 11% in the last 3 months or so. It is in the middle of a legitimate Wall Street definition of a correction. I am not picking the bottom here, or even trying to. That’s the point. I don’t care if this is the bottom. It’d be great if it was, but it doesn’t matter. Now I’m not saying my algo is the greatest thing ever (though it might be for me), but the WAY I use it is significant and it illustrates something ANYONE can do when a stock or markets are trending lower. During this correction, my algo has signaled 14 LONG trades, including today. 12 have been closed profitably and one was the long signal yesterday (#14 was today). Full disclosure: I didn’t actually trade that signal yesterday, but I am today. The average gain on the 13 prior to today (including yesterday's "loser"), DURING A CORRECTION, is +0.9%. Not only does it win, but it wins consistently even when stocks are trading lower. The key is as much how/when I exit as it is the algo and its entry signals. As soon as a lot is end of day profitable, it is gone. I don’t care how much I’ve made, it’s gone. And that is a secret to making money long during a downtrend. It helps a lot that my entry signals are good ones, but the key is GET OUT WITH A PROFIT. Don’t let the market take its money back. It’s the same thing casinos try to do when you win and they have the edge - keep you playing so they can get their money back. I trade the same way in uptrends too. That leaves some money on the table then, but I take it back on the way down when I’m making money instead of losing it - and you can too. The method I use works in almost every situation, on almost any stock. But its shining moment is when things are going downhill. Not just because it makes money, but because I don’t worry about timing and downtrends much any more. Some slides can get annoying under the right circumstances, but I don’t worry. This technique has worked in every major market downtrend in the last 50 years. Except for stocks that go to zero, it works on stocks in corrections or bear markets, though at a certain point even it will lose money (I’ll be posting an idea involving NVDA in that regard sometime relatively soon). But relatively small losses are easily regained, especially if the win rate is high (which it obviously is here). The key is avoiding the BIG losses and this technique does that very well. So I went long at the close at 132.19. Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.

Education

by redwingcoach

10 tricks for developing discipline or here was Warren If you asked me, what is the most valuable trait an investor should have, I would call it the ability to follow your own rules. In other words, it is discipline. A novice investor can learn quickly, know all the features of the chosen strategy from A to Z, but it is unlikely that he will succeed without this trait. So, Warren Buffett called persistence your engine, and discipline the guarantee of a successful future. Imagine that you have sailed to an unusually beautiful island with the goal of finding a treasure chest. To achieve this, you have a map with a description of all the paths and turns that you need to take to reach your goal. However, after the first 100 meters of the path you understand that this island has a huge number of amazing plants, ripe fruits, and curious animals. All this is very interesting and attractive for you: firstly, you want to take a photo of a beautiful flower, secondly, try a tropical fruit, thirdly, play with a funny monkey. “Why not? This is a great chance!” you think. After a while, having enjoyed the life of the island, you realize that it is already evening, and it is easier to spend the night somewhere under a palm tree and continue the search for treasure tomorrow, during daylight hours. “That’s a smart idea!” you note and begin to prepare a place to sleep. In the morning, you wake up in a good mood, you are greeted by familiar flowers, fruits and a cheerful parrot. Since you already know all this, you decide to continue following the map to find the treasure today and sail on. The path is easy for you: the entire route is marked in advance, you just follow these instructions. So, here you are. At the roots of the largest palm tree, under many branches, there should be a treasure chest hidden. You clear away the branches, and here your expectation collides with a shocking reality. Instead of a chest, you see a hole, where at the bottom, with a wooden stick, is written: “Warren was here”. In this example, Warren had the same map as you. Moreover, he arrived on the island much later. The only difference is his model of achieving the goal. He understood that exploring the island was not a priority for him right now. Warren would be happy to return there, but this time with the goal of relaxing, perhaps on his brand-new ship. And while he came to the island to look for treasure, he is looking for it. Everything else, despite all its attractiveness, is for him a risk of not achieving the goal. I also think of my stock investing strategy as a map that helps me understand where I should turn in any given situation. The only thing that makes me follow the route is discipline. Unfortunately, I can't put the stock market on pause or ignore corporate news - they all require my attention. If I choose this path, I follow it. In other words, if I am not going to follow the recommendations of my map, then why did I choose this path? However, how difficult it is to look calmly at temptations. A man is not a robot. So we need some tricks that can help us with discipline. I think that in this regard, the most brilliant invention of mankind was and remains the alarm clock. No matter how much we sleep, when the alarm rings, we wake up. The most disciplined people even set several alarms to make sure they wake up! On the one hand, it irritates us like crazy, on the other hand, have you ever thought about how well it helps us relax? After all, there is no longer a need to wake up and determine the time by the brightness of the sun from the window - now we have an alarm clock! It turns out that discipline can be associated with pleasant things. By the way, on TradingView, such a brilliant invention is “Alerts”. I wrote about this function in the article: “A pill for missed opportunities” . I will only add that the alert system can be applied not only to the stock price, but also to the indicators that you use on the chart, as well as to a whole watch list. So, make a list of companies you want to keep an eye on. Then set alerts when a certain condition related to price or indicator value is reached. And finally, wait calmly. Yes, this is what will take up all your time - waiting. And believe me, it takes a lot of discipline to just wait. To develop this trait, I recommend creating habits that are organically linked to your strategy. For example, to decide about a deal, I constantly refer to news about the selected companies. It is significant for me to understand whether critical events have arisen that could influence my decision to open or close a position. However, regularly reading corporate news can hardly be called a fascinating activity for everyone. This is not looking at memes at all. Therefore, below I will give a few tricks that will help make this (and not only this) activity systemic: 1. Set your alarm for 1 hour before the stock market opens. Let this signal remind you that it is time to study the news on companies that have already been bought or are very close to being bought. 2. Make access to news as convenient as possible. Install the TradingView app on your phone, tablet, home computer or laptop. Don't have problems accessing information in any situation: if you are lying on the couch, sitting at the table or walking in the park. 3. Start with small steps. For example, start by reading only the headlines of news stories, rather than the entire story at once. Gradually increase the amount of incoming information. In one full hour, you can easily gather all the information you need to get a complete picture before the market opens. 4. Use modern technologies. For example, reading news from your voice assistant. This is convenient if you are on the move. 5. Combine your habit with another direction you are developing. For example, if you are learning a foreign language, practice reading the news in that language. 6. Organize public attention to your habit. For example, agree with your wife that for every time you skip a habit, you take her to a new restaurant (I think the most effective method for married men). Chat with like-minded people and/or post your thoughts on the news on social networks. The extra attention will motivate you to keep doing it. 7. Add a little joy to your news reading habit. If you like freshly squeezed juice, place a glass of it next to you. After the work you've done, be sure to thank yourself. For example, a delicious dessert or watching one episode of your favorite TV series. 8. Formulate your goal as follows: not to be someone who understands everything, but to be someone who never misses a single event. 9. Separately, I would like to draw attention to keeping a diary of your operations. This is an essential document that will help you track your progress - your Track Record. At the same time, it is one of the systemic habits. I recommend adding to Track Record information about cash transactions, trades, taxes, dividends, conditions that prompted you to open or close a position in shares. You can organize such a diary in any spreadsheet to calculate some of the metrics using formulas. Below, I will present the metrics that I use in my Track Record. All data in it will be provided as an example only. 10. And finally, I think it is significant to visualize your achievements not only in electronic form, but also to have a physical embodiment of your results. For example, these can be empty glass flasks where you can put coins or balls corresponding to certain actions: opening a position, closing a position with a profit, closing a position with a loss, paying dividends. One flask - one year. Such an installation will look beautiful in your room or office and will remind you of what you have finally achieved. You might even have some interesting stories to tell to curious guests who notice this piece of furniture.

Education

The Tariff War: America, Mexico, Canada, and China Dear readers, my name is Andrea Russo, and I am a trader. Today, I want to talk to you about a significant shift that is shaking global markets: the United States has decided to freeze tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while China has introduced counter-tariffs. This strategic move is likely to have significant repercussions on international trade and global economic dynamics, with direct effects on currencies and the Forex market. Freezing Tariffs on Mexico and Canada: A Change in Strategy? Under the Biden administration, the United States has decided to freeze tariffs on Mexico and Canada, two vital trading partners. This move may seem like a de-escalation in the trade war, but it is actually an attempt to strengthen ties with neighboring countries, thus facilitating trade flow and stimulating the internal economy. With rising commodity prices and the ongoing energy crisis, Washington aims to avoid escalating tariffs that could further aggravate an already fragile economic situation. A Strategic Choice in an Unstable World Despite the good intentions, the global context remains uncertain. The decision to suspend tariffs is partly motivated by the need to slow down inflation and mitigate the negative effects on global supply chains, especially in North America. However, this could also be a signal that the United States is focusing on internal challenges before shifting its focus to a larger battle — the one with China. China’s Response: Counter-Tariffs and Retaliation On the other side, China has not delayed in responding by imposing new tariffs on U.S. goods, particularly in key sectors such as technology, agriculture, and automotive. These tariffs are expected to have a direct impact on U.S. companies that export to China but may also influence global trade dynamics. China has clearly made a strategic move, one that goes beyond economic revenge: it's a signal that Beijing is not willing to make concessions on an issue that is critical for its geopolitical standing. Impact on Financial Markets and Forex Now that we've outlined the key strategic moves, let's take a look at how these developments will affect financial markets, especially the Forex market. The combination of the potential tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada and the tightening tariffs on China will undoubtedly affect currency dynamics, creating both opportunities and risks for traders. 1. Impact on the U.S. Dollar (USD) The dollar may be influenced in contrasting ways by these developments. On the one hand, the tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada could be positive for the dollar, as it may favor a stronger North American economy, stimulating trade flows and reducing uncertainty. In particular, sectors such as automotive, energy, and agriculture may benefit from lower costs. On the other hand, tensions with China could continue to create geopolitical uncertainties, which historically have led to greater volatility in the dollar. In the event of escalation, the effect could be an increase in demand for safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen, leading to a temporary weakness in the dollar. Forex Trading Strategy: If the tariff freeze leads to economic stabilization in North America, the dollar could appreciate against riskier currencies such as the Mexican peso (MXN) and the Canadian dollar (CAD). However, traders should monitor China's reactions, as an escalation could lead to a more significant dollar rally. 2. Impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) The tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada will likely have a positive impact on both currencies. These countries will benefit from reduced costs on goods exported to the United States, which could stimulate economic growth and improve the trade balance. However, the situation remains delicate. If China continues with new tariffs, Mexico and Canada could be indirectly affected, as overall global uncertainty could reduce trade and slow down growth. Nevertheless, both countries could continue to see appreciation in their currencies against emerging market or riskier currencies. Forex Trading Strategy: If the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar appreciate, traders might consider going long on these currencies against others like the Brazilian real (BRL) or South African rand (ZAR), which tend to be more volatile and vulnerable to global crises. 3. Impact on the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Emerging Market Currencies The escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China will have a direct impact on the Chinese yuan. If more counter-tariffs are imposed, the yuan could weaken further, particularly against the dollar. This weakening could also increase volatility in emerging market currencies as capital might seek safety in assets like the dollar or Japanese yen. Another potential effect will be the increase in commodity demand, particularly for metals and energy, which could benefit currencies linked to the export of raw materials, such as the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD). Forex Trading Strategy: Traders expecting a weakening of the yuan could consider short positions on the CNY against the dollar or other major currencies. Additionally, monitoring commodity price trends will be crucial, as they could provide leading indicators for currencies tied to their export. Conclusion: A New Chapter in the Tariff War with Forex Impacts In summary, the tariff war between the United States, Mexico, Canada, and China is entering a new phase that will have long-lasting effects on financial markets, especially on Forex. Currency fluctuations will be influenced by a combination of trade policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and global economic dynamics. Investors and traders need to prepare for a period of high volatility, closely monitoring the moves of key players and their repercussions on the currency markets. In this environment, adopting a flexible and diversified strategy is crucial, ready to adapt to rapid and unpredictable developments. Forex, as always, offers great opportunities but also significant risks. The key will be to read between the lines of global economic policies and act with timing.

Education

by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP

Thoughts on Technical Analysis (Part 1) 1- Taking market entries at exhaustion figures (accumulations or distributions) is a poor investment if the preceding trends show strength (especially if the trendline hasn't been broken or they are in contradiction with balance points of higher timeframes, like a 20 EMA). Secure reversals occur in contexts of weakness. 2- Thinking of price charts as something that either goes up or down is a mistake, as markets tend to go through long periods of indecision. We should avoid these circumstances unless a study in higher timeframes provides us with a favorable context. 3- Trades where the Stop Loss (SL) is protected by price formations, (especially if the target shows a good risk-reward ratio) not only add security to our trades but also attract more participants, increasing the chances of success. 4- Forcing market entries (or analysis) implies a lack of experience, system, or investment methodology. Even discretionary investors express that the best opportunities are evident at first glance. 5- Not being flexible to market changes is often more a matter of ego than inexperience. 6- There is no risk management nor is it possible to perform backtesting without fixed, immutable parameters. Any minimal change when executing our market entries significantly impacts our success rate. 7- We should avoid analyzing the market starting from lower timeframes, as our analysis might be biased once we approach higher timeframes. Higher timeframes clarify. 8- We should avoid using several indicators of the same type (oscillators or trend), as the signals will be relatively similar in the same context, which does not provide a significant advantage. A hundred aligned oscillator crossovers in the same timeframe won't make a difference. 9- The best quantitative trading systems are trained based on historical patterns. Moreover, harmony and repetitive patterns attract more investors. The root of Technical Analysis is the historical pattern, and a pattern of behavior increases the probability of success. 10- The best market entries are in balance zones, and even reversals in lower timeframe trends (in disequilibrium) generally increase their reliability when they find a balance point in higher timeframes. 11- A engulfing candle is a trend in a lower timeframe, so any formation or pattern can be contextualized. 12- There are two approaches to tackling a price chart: the quantitative and the discretionary (or logical). Both approaches recognize that the market forms patterns with some predictive capacity, but they accept that most of the time randomness prevails. 13- The fathers of Technical Analysis (Charles Dow and Richard W. Schabacker) claim that lower timeframes are more prone to manipulation. Another interesting fact is that documented quantitative systems decrease their success rate at lower timeframes (some becoming unusable at 1-hour or higher timeframes). 14- Major changes in price charts are caused by minorities (who concentrate more wealth and influence) that are better informed and capitalized. Notes: Some classic authors taught how periods of great popular euphoria generate market corrections, as in the case of Charles Dow; while others directly created methods to understand and exploit manipulation, like Richard D. Wyckoff and his "strong hands". The popular euphoria generated by the news that the SEC would allow the creation of the first Bitcoin ETFs, and BlackRock's entry into the Bitcoin ETF market did not cause the expected rise, but a correction. Also, Donald Trump's rise to power and encouraging news generated popular euphoria which translated into another correction. Currently, many stocks, especially tech ones, are at inflection points according to the historical record of price action, some showing exhaustion figures. It wouldn't surprise me if a series of "geopolitical circumstances" justified the corrections. 15- Colorful charts increase the irrationality and risk appetite of investors (and investment platforms know this). Notes: Investors in feudal Japan used red and black to represent price fluctuations. Bullish candles were red, and bearish ones were black. With the red color, investors remained alert and skeptical about gains, and black was a neutral color meant to convey calm in the face of trend reversals. Libraries, offices, universities, and any place where maximum intellectual performance is required are decorated with neutral colors. Recreational places like bars, clubs, or casinos are extremely colorful.

Education

by Especulador96

My experiences and knowledge about crappy strategies.Hello guys, I hope you are doing well. Today I am a little upset that some of you are following or paying money to mentor people who have no knowledge of the market. This market does not revolve around 4 trend lines and channels and fake breakouts and such nonsense. All of these are not wrong, they are just immature and a bit beginner-friendly. Today a person contacted me privately and complained about losing capital and that this market has no logic and basis and thought the whole market was gambling. But it is not as he thought. I told him: Send me the journal. In response, he asked me what is a journal? (: Mistakes in this market are the best teacher Mistakes are the best teacher if you journal and realize your mistake. I said to him: Don't you save your charts? He said: Why should I? (: One of your main problems is not saving your charts. Always save your charts and refer to them again to realize your mistakes. Well, let's get back to the main topic. Look, guys, the market revolves around liquidity and support and resistance (a simpler example of liquidity is the fake breakout). If you want to succeed in this market, you have to learn everything professionally. Never trade on a time frame lower than 5 minutes. Each new day that starts, clear your chart and draw everything again. This will make you practice. Sometimes you will realize your mistakes from the previous day. Never be greedy. Don't trade emotionally. Always check the market trend from daily to 15 minutes and write it down on paper and keep it on your desk so that you are always focused. For a spike trend, go against the trend for 15 minutes. Don't trade against the market trend. Don't get carried away by the trend line (: Always be patient. Before trading, ask yourself: Is this trade safe? Did I follow all the points of my strategy? And write down the answer you gave yourself on a piece of paper. Always manage your money.

Education

PROFIT & LEARN: NEWS TRADING (MY VIEWS) Introduction: “Hello, traders! Welcome back to ‘Profit and Learn.’ Today, we’re diving into a fascinating topic: how markets can move contrary to news. It’s a common misconception that positive news always leads to positive market movements. Let’s explore why this isn’t always the case.” Main Content: “Markets often price in expected news ahead of time. This means that by the time the news is released, the market has already reacted. Media and PR play a significant role in shaping sentiment, often creating a disconnect between actual news and market reactions. For instance, positive news can sometimes lead to a market drop due to profit-taking or because the news was already expected.” Case Study: “Let’s look at a recent example with USD/JPY. Despite all news items coming out positive, USD/JPY made a strong move downward. This can happen when markets have already priced in the positive news, or when traders take profits, causing a reversal.” Key Takeaways: “Always understand market psychology. Don’t rely solely on news headlines. Consider the bigger picture and broader market context before making trading decisions.” Conclusion: “Thanks for tuning in! Remember, successful trading requires a holistic approach. Stay informed, stay cautious, and happy trading!”

Education

16:08

by moneymagnateash

THE SKEWED GAMES. UNDERSTANDING CBOE SKEW INDEX (SKEW)The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW, or "BLACK SWAN" Index) is a financial metric developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to measure the perceived tail risk in the S&P 500 over a 30-day horizon. Tail risk refers to the probability of extreme market movements, such as significant declines or "black swan" events, which are rare but have severe consequences. Here's a detailed explanation of its role and implications in financial markets: Key Features of the CBOE:SKEW Index Measurement of Tail Risk. The SKEW Index quantifies the likelihood of returns that deviate two or more standard deviations from the mean. It focuses on outlier events, unlike the VIX (Volatility Index), which measures implied volatility around at-the-money (ATM) options. Implied Volatility Skew. The index is derived from the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 options. It reflects the market's demand for protection against downside risks, which leads to higher implied volatility for OTM puts compared to calls. Range and Interpretation The SKEW Index typically ranges from 100 to 150. A value near 100 suggests a normal distribution of returns with low perceived tail risk. Higher values (e.g., above 130) indicate increased concern about potential extreme negative events, with heightened demand for protective options. How It Works The SKEW Index is calculated using a portfolio of OTM options on the S&P 500. The methodology involves measuring the slope of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing how much more expensive OTM puts are relative to calls. This steepness reflects market participants' expectations of asymmetric risks, particularly on the downside. To make a picture clear, we just simply use 125-Day SMA of SKEW Index. Since multi year high has occurred, market turbulence come as usual. Practical Implications Market Sentiment. A rising SKEW Index signals growing fear of extreme downside risks. For example, during periods of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, investors may hedge portfolios more aggressively, driving up the index. Conversely, lower readings suggest calm market conditions with balanced expectations for future returns. Portfolio Management Investors use the SKEW Index as a barometer for hedging costs. High SKEW levels indicate that protecting against tail risks has become more expensive (and probably active). It also helps traders assess whether market pricing aligns with their own risk expectations. Historical Context Historically, spikes in the SKEW Index have preceded major market downturns or volatility events, such as the "Flash Crash" in 2010, Bear market in early 2000s (dot com collapse), WFC in 2007-09, market falls in late 2018 and in 2022. Complement to VIX While both indices measure risk, they address different aspects: VIX captures overall market volatility, while SKEW focuses on asymmetry and extreme event probabilities. Limitations In summary, the CBOE Skew Index provides valuable insights into market participants' perception of tail risks and their willingness to pay for protection against extreme events. It complements other volatility measures like the VIX and serves as a critical tool for risk management and market analysis.

SEducation

by PandorraResearch

Day Trading: A Comprehensive Guide Day trading is a dynamic trading style that attracts many traders, particularly those looking to capitalize on short-term market movements. Unlike other trading strategies that span days, weeks, or even months, day trading involves executing trades within the same trading day, taking advantage of price fluctuations throughout that period. This guide will explore the essence of day trading, its strategies, pros and cons, and tips for success, delving deeper into the intricacies of the market and the techniques required to navigate it effectively. What is Day Trading? Day trading involves the buying and selling of financial instruments within a single trading day. Traders do not hold positions overnight; instead, they aim to profit from daily market movements. This approach is particularly appealing to novice traders, who may believe that frequent trades can exponentially increase profits. However, the fast-paced nature of day trading requires discipline and a solid trading plan, as emotional decision-making can lead to significant losses. Traders typically utilize various time frames, often ranging from one minute (M1) to one hour (H1). While beginners may gravitate towards shorter time frames like M5 or M15, these often result in increased noise and the potential for quickly hitting stop-loss orders. Successful day traders understand that consistent profitability stems from maintaining discipline and developing a robust trading strategy rather than chasing quick wins. Understanding Market Psychology Market psychology plays a significant role in day trading. Fear, greed, and anxiety are the primary emotions driving investor behavior, leading to price movements. Traders must remain aware of market sentiment, gauging the mood of other traders and market participants. This involves: 1. Sentiment Analysis: Assessing current market sentiment can help traders position themselves correctly. Bullish sentiment often leads to higher prices, while bearish sentiment causes prices to drop. 2. Economic Indicators: Monitoring economic indicators and news releases helps traders anticipate potential price movements, influencing their trading decisions. 3. Support and Resistance: Key support and resistance levels indicate areas of price stability and potential for price reversal. Read also: --- Strategies for Successful Day Trading --- To thrive in day trading, adherence to particular strategies is essential. Here’s a look at some of the most common techniques employed by day traders: 1. Scalping Scalping is one of the oldest and most popular strategies in day trading. It involves making numerous trades throughout the day to capture small price movements. Scalpers analyze charts and execute quick trades based on technical indicators, entering and exiting positions in mere minutes. This method thrives in low-volatility environments, where assets tend to fluctuate within tight ranges, allowing traders to realize small but consistent profits. Example of Scalping on 5-Minute EURUSD with Simple Moving Average and Standard RSI Indicator 2. Reverse Trading Reverse trading capitalizes on market range-bound conditions. Traders identify key support and resistance levels and execute trades based on the price retracing from these points. This strategy typically requires a combination of technical analysis and an understanding of fundamental data. It's crucial to remain vigilant about scheduled news releases, as these can create sudden price surges or drops that impact positions. Read also: 3. Momentum Trading Momentum trading relies on the strength of existing price movements. This strategy involves entering trades in the direction of a prevailing trend, often guided by fundamental analysis and technical indicators such as Moving Averages. Traders monitor economic news and events that may influence market dynamics, utilizing these insights to execute long or short trades accordingly. Read also: 4. Range Trading Range trading involves buying an asset when its price falls to the lower boundary of a trading range and selling when it reaches the upper boundary. This strategy requires a keen eye for identifying support and resistance levels and a deep understanding of market volatility. Read also: Pros and Cons of Day Trading Day trading comes with a distinct set of advantages and challenges. Here’s a balanced view of its pros and cons: Pros: - Access to Capital: Traders can start day trading with lower capital requirements since each trade can yield a profit in just a few pips. - Flexibility: Traders have control over their trading schedule, allowing them to choose when and how long to engage in trades. - Potential for High Returns: Successful day trading can produce significant profits compared to longer-term strategies, provided that trades are executed prudently and systematically. Cons: - High Risk: Day trading is inherently risky, especially for those inexperienced in market dynamics. The potential for quick losses is significant. - Psychological Pressure: The fast-paced nature of day trading can lead to emotional decision-making, which can derail even the most disciplined traders. Read also: - Time Commitment: Day traders must be patient and ready to dedicate long hours to monitoring the markets, which may not suit everyone. - Commissions and Fees: Trading frequently can lead to increased commissions and fees, eating into potential profits and making it essential to maintain a high win-to-loss ratio. Managing Risks in Day Trading Risk management is paramount to surviving in the world of day trading. Here are some risk management techniques to consider: 1. Position Sizing: Proper position sizing is critical to risk management in day trading. This involves allocating the right amount of capital to each trade to minimize the impact of potential losses. 2. Stops and Limits: Traders use stops and limits to limit potential losses. Stops are triggered when prices reach a predefined level, closing out the position, while limits are triggered when prices reach a certain level, closing out the position. 3. Risk Reward Ratio: Setting a risk reward ratio helps traders maintain profitability. This involves setting a ratio of reward to risk, typically around 1:3 to 1:4. Read also: /b] and.. and... Conclusion Day trading can be a lucrative venture for those willing to invest time in understanding market mechanics, developing strategies, and exercising disciplined decision-making. While it may appear attractive, particularly for beginners, the reality is that successful day trading requires meticulous planning, emotional control, and a well-thought-out strategy. For those new to day trading, practicing on a demo account is advised to build skills and confidence. Starting with simpler strategies, such as pullback trading or scalping, can help beginners navigate the complexities of intraday trading. Ultimately, comprehensive knowledge of technical analysis and a clear grasp of market sentiment are critical for achieving consistent success in day trading. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.

Education

Principle of prediction The Principle of Prediction – How We Are Prediction Machines "Every action we take is based on a prediction—whether we realize it or not. Mastery comes from refining those predictions through data and analysis." 🔍 Understanding the Principle of Prediction - The human brain is wired for prediction. Every decision we make—whether in trading, business, or life—is an attempt to anticipate an outcome. - Prediction is about stability. Our ability to predict future events determines how well we adapt to uncertainty, manage risk, and maintain control. - The role of data and analysis: While intuition plays a role, true mastery comes from combining biological instinct with structured data-driven refinement. 📊 The Chart & Its Meaning - The chart illustrates how patterns emerge over time, reinforcing the idea that recognizing, testing, and refining these patterns enhances predictive accuracy. - Human Perception vs. Statistical Reality: - Our intuition is often biased—we see what we expect to see. - Data analysis acts as a corrective lens , aligning perception with objective reality. - Performance Optimization: - Stability in decision-making is achieved when human prediction aligns with statistical probability. - Tracking and refining pattern recognition improves predictive power over time. 🧠 Key Takeaways ✅ Prediction is survival. The better we predict, the more control we exert over uncertainty. ✅ Data refines intuition. Without measurement, prediction is just an educated guess. ✅ Mastering prediction = mastering stability. Stability isn’t found in avoiding risk, but in learning to predict and manage it effectively. 💡 The First of The Seven Principles This establishes The Principle of Prediction as the foundation of stability. - In future annotations, we can progressively introduce the next principles in a way that naturally builds on this concept. - Each principle will connect back to scientific reasoning, human needs, and performance optimization.

Education

by SERVER_SEVEN

What's Flowing: Trump’s Tariffs – Institutional Insight On this episode of “What’s Flowing”, I dive into a document shared with me by an institutional trader analyzing the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the markets. With global trade in focus, we’ll explore how these policies are affecting currencies, commodities, and equities, and what institutional traders are watching closely. Are tariffs a strategic move for economic leverage, or are they setting the stage for market volatility? I’ll break down what I can from the report, reading between the lines to extract key takeaways for traders and investors. Stay tuned as we analyze the potential winners and losers in this shifting economic landscape, and what it all means for your portfolio.

Education

03:44

by moneymagnateash

FOMO Traps: How Market Makers Capitalize on Panic Selling Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 3 minutes of your time. For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 3 concise lines at the end . I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of Bitcoin and its role in the global financial landscape. The influence of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) on market prices is particularly pronounced across global financial markets, and the cryptocurrency market is certainly not immune to its effects. Imagine that today, many of you log into your profiles, expecting a minor 5% dip, only to be taken aback by a much sharper decline. Instead of the anticipated 5%, you find your portfolio down by 10%, or in some cases, even 30%. In this situation, how do you respond? This is where the market’s true dynamics come into play. Rather than holding steady, many of you might impulsively decide to liquidate your positions in a panic, believing that this is the best way to minimize further losses. However, as you make these decisions, the market maker — who operates from an elevated position, almost like a mastermind pulling the strings in an anime like *Solo Leveling* — watches this reaction with amusement. Their grin widens as they anticipate your next move. This is the essence of FOMO at work. As fear sets in, some of you may be tempted to take short positions, convinced that the market will continue to fall and that you can secure profits in the downturn. However, the market maker has likely anticipated this and is preparing for the next step: hunting your stop-loss orders. Always keep in mind that in the world of cryptocurrency, the true market manipulators operate like skilled hunters, waiting to capitalize on your fear and mistakes. To avoid falling into these emotional traps , it’s essential to take a step back and reassess your strategy. Acting purely on emotion can cloud your judgment, leading to decisions that could harm your long-term investment goals. It’s crucial to treat your assets with the respect they deserve, especially given the time, effort, and sacrifice it took to accumulate them. Establish clear and reasonable stop-loss and profit-taking levels before making any decisions, and stick to them. While I personally lean towards a bearish outlook on the market in the immediate term, it’s important to recognize that market makers typically aim for a few more rallies — perhaps even pushing for one or two additional all-time highs — before the broader crypto winter settles in. These cycles are common in volatile markets, and it’s vital to be prepared for both upward surges and inevitable corrections. However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice, and it’s important to be aware of the high risks that come with investing in crypto market and that being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post provided by the 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 FOMO plays a huge role in market moves, especially in crypto. Many of you might expect a small drop, but instead, face a sharp decline, leading to panic selling. This plays right into the hands of market makers, who capitalize on your fear, sometimes even hunting your stop-losses. To avoid falling into this trap, stay calm, stick to your plan, set clear profit and loss levels, and avoid emotional decisions. While the market may dip, I believe there could still be a few more highs before the crypto winter hits. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋

Education

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Select market data provided by ICE Data services. Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2025 FactSet Research Systems Inc.© 2025 TradingView, Inc.

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