Bitcoin vs. Saylor: The Power and Danger of fanatical promotionToday I want to talk about Michael Saylor and his influence on many crypto minds and, to some extent, the movement of Bitcoin’s price.
It’s very important to understand who we’re listening to, who we’re following, and whether this person has hidden motives we don’t see due to lack of information or unwillingness to get it — due to our stubborn desire to see only what confirms our own fantasies and thoughts and serves our expectations.
Let’s turn on our reason and objectivity and face the facts.
Michael Saylor is a well-known figure in the crypto world. He promotes the idea of eternal Bitcoin growth and actively buys it to support his words. When the price drops, he even suggests his readers sell their organs, which, to me, is too much.
Let’s move to the facts — everything is Googleable, and promptable.
Facts:
📈 Hype of 2000
In 2000, he rode the dot-com hype with his company MicroStrategy. MicroStrategy was promoted as a pioneer in business analytics and data management software, and he saw himself solely as a visionary of the new economy.
The boom was sky-high — just read about the dot-com era. Stocks of new tech companies were soaring, and it was enough to say “software” and “I see the future.”
In 1998, MicroStrategy successfully held an IPO. In 2000, at the peak of the dot-com boom, the company’s stock reached an incredible $333 per share in March.
He skillfully used the hype, and here was his 2000 narrative:
Digital transformation: Saylor claimed the world was entering a new era where data would become the main asset of companies, and MicroStrategy — the key tool for processing and analyzing it.
Unlimited growth: In the dot-com era, Saylor pushed the idea that tech companies like MicroStrategy would grow exponentially, ignoring traditional financial constraints.
The future is now: Saylor created the feeling that MicroStrategy wasn’t just following trends but shaping them, offering solutions that would define the future of business.
At the same time, he was building a cult around himself, cultivating the image of a genius entrepreneur.
⚠️ Financial reporting scandal
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched an investigation into MicroStrategy. The company overstated revenues, which led to a stock crash (from $333 to $86 in one day) and a loss of investor trust. The stock kept falling and dropped to $0.4 (–100%!).
The SEC filed charges against Michael Saylor personally (CEO), as well as CFO Mark Lynch and the chief accountant. They were accused of intentionally misrepresenting financials to keep stock prices high.
SEC investigation results:
In December 2000, the SEC concluded the investigation, and MicroStrategy agreed to settle without admitting guilt:
* The company paid a $10M fine.
* Saylor, Lynch, and other executives paid personal fines.
* Saylor agreed to pay $8.28M in “disgorgement” (unjust enrichment) and a $350K fine — a total of about $8.63M.
* MicroStrategy committed to revising its reporting and implementing stricter internal controls.
In addition to the SEC settlement ($11M from leadership, including $8.63M from Saylor), MicroStrategy faced shareholder class-action lawsuits, which were settled for $10M.
No executives were criminally charged, but the company’s and Saylor’s reputations suffered greatly.
In other words, Michael didn’t have any moral hesitation about faking company profits during losses. But investors and journalists started asking questions — and the SEC came knocking.
Let’s call it what it is: Saylor committed fraud, using hype, promising endless growth, and creating a cult around himself as a “financial genius and visionary.”
Michael went quiet, and the media tone shifted quickly — from super-visionary to one of the biggest losers and scammers.
To give him credit, he managed to keep the company alive and kept a low profile until 2020, like a mouse. 20 years — a generation change and a new hype cycle.
And what does a tech visionary do? Of course — jump into the new wave. A chance to restore his image — probably more important to him than money.
🟠 Bitcoin Era, 2020
Before 2020, Saylor was a Bitcoin skeptic. In 2013, he even tweeted that “Bitcoin’s days are numbered” and compared it to gambling.
But in 2020, he changed his position after deeply studying crypto. His mission: to protect capital and restore his image as a prophet — and he decided to buy Bitcoin.
But his own money seemed insufficient, so he turned to borrowing.
Here’s how the scheme works:
1.MicroStrategy issues stocks and bonds
📈 They sell new MSTR shares → get cash.
💵 They issue bonds (debt papers) → investors give them money at interest.
2. They use that money to buy Bitcoin
🟧 All the raised funds go into BTC purchases.
They don’t sell. Just hold. Never lock in profit.
3. If BTC rises → MSTR stock price rises
MSTR becomes a kind of "BTC ETF."
📊 BTC growth = MicroStrategy’s market cap growth.
🔁 Then they repeat the cycle.
Stock price up → issue more shares/bonds → buy more BTC → repeat.
📌 The catch:
They use other people’s money (debt) to buy BTC.
They sell almost nothing.
They bet BTC will grow faster than interest on the debt.
So as long as the price goes up — everything is fine.
Let’s admit: his fanaticism, aggressive marketing, and bold statements have helped Bitcoin.
But the main question: will the inevitable market correction wipe out this belief in endless growth?
🔍 His personality
It’s crucial for us as traders and investors to understand who really runs the company or project. The personal traits of leaders are useful information that gives us insight and a behavioral map.
We need to research not only products and financials, but also the psychological types of those making the decisions.
Saylor’s aggressive marketing and loud statements are part of his personality.
He fed off the hype around his persona more than any growing bank balance.
And there’s nothing wrong with that — until you start deceiving people to keep attention on yourself.
For example, in the 2000s, *Forbes* noted that Saylor “sold the dream” of a new economy where traditional profit metrics didn’t matter.
It attracted investors — but didn’t reflect reality. Forbes hinted that his desire to maintain the genius image may have led to accounting manipulation.
Saylor created an "expectations bubble" that burst.
His desire to prove he’s a genius led to a disconnection from reality.
He often talks about himself as a genius and visionary (sounds like a grandiose ego).
He positions himself as the savior of capital through BTC (messiah complex).
He publicly mocks “weak hands” and traditional investors (shows superiority).
He never admits mistakes, even after losing billions (denial and overconfidence).
He repeats his ideas again and again (manic fixation on being right).
His speech is like a manifesto, not a dialogue. He doesn’t converse — he proclaims.
I don’t sense greed in him. I sense emptiness that demands a cult.
He doesn’t live for money — he is obsessed with the idea.
And that’s the problem — there’s no objectivity here. It feels more like revenge after the humiliation and downfall of 20 years ago.
He’s smart — no doubt. But it’s not just intelligence. It’s cold messianism.
Obsession, not passion.
Psychotype: Grand strategist with a humiliation trauma
Trait Behavior
Narcissistic core “I’m special, my vision is above all.”
Obsession with greatness “I must be the truth, not just be right.”
Hyper-rationality “I survive through logic, not feelings.”
Psychological armor “I won’t show weakness. If I break, I disappear.”
Fanatical visionary “My idea is supreme. I don’t need to be humble.”
💸 More facts:
In 2024, Michael paid a FWB:40M fine for tax evasion.
The accusation:
He didn’t pay income tax in D.C., while actively living there — yachts, property, planes, frequent visits.
His tax returns didn’t reflect reality, and the investigation used GPS, Instagram, flight data, banking, and other digital traces.
Saylor didn’t admit guilt but agreed to settle for around $40M.
His personal wealth is mostly in MicroStrategy shares (9.9% or ~$8.74B by end of 2024).
Theoretically, he can sell them — but he must file a report within two days.
Current status:
MicroStrategy owns 555,450 BTC
Average purchase price: ~$68,550
Total purchase cost: ~$38.08B
Unrealized profit: ~$14.7B
And remember — Saylor’s slogan: Forever HODL.
📉 But the key point:
The company’s current debt is $7.24B.
All is good — as long as the price rises.
Analysts estimate BTC would have to fall to ~$20K before MSTR is forced to liquidate.
But if BTC nears the break-even zone, fear might hit shareholders first — triggering stock sell-offs.
If MSTR shares fall — which is likely during a BTC crash — bondholders, especially those with convertible bonds (which make up most of the debt), might demand repayment.
That could force Saylor to sell BTC.
Because in a crypto winter, buyers for MSTR stock or bonds may disappear.
So BTC could fall — not because of actual sales, but from fear of those sales.
This is my main concern with Saylor’s oversized influence on the market.
🐍 A bit of “reptilian” theory
What if BlackRock *planned* to use Saylor’s hands to push Bitcoin and concentrate large amounts in one basket — then take it from him?
Among the main bondholders are big institutions:
* Allianz Global Investors
* Voya Investment Management
* Calamos Investments
* State Street
These bonds are usually unsecured and non-convertible, making them attractive to investors who want Bitcoin exposure without direct ownership.
In case of default, bondholders have priority over the company’s assets — including BTC reserves.
🏛 State Street Corporation
Public company traded on NYSE.
Its biggest shareholders: Vanguard Group and BlackRock .
If so — they could end up holding as much BTC as Satoshi.
BlackRock’s IBIT holds ~500K BTC.
MicroStrategy holds ~500K BTC.
🤔 Questions to reflect on:
* Is industry leader fanaticism good for the development of crypto?
* What is Michael Saylor really doing? Avenging the past? Or truly in love with the technology?
* What risks does a whale with media influence and fanaticism and pockets full of Bitcoin and debt pose to the market?
Waiting for your thoughts in the comments, dear traders! Hugs! 🤗
Beyond Technical Analysis
The World’s Financial PowerhousesMoney never sleeps — and in certain cities, it practically runs the show.
These financial capitals aren't just centers of wealth; they're the beating hearts of global finance, moving trillions every single day.
Today, let's take a quick tour through the cities that move markets, set trends, and shape economies.
🌍 1. New York City: The Global Titan
Nickname: The City That Never Sleeps
Key Institutions:
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
NASDAQ
Wall Street banks (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley)
Why It Matters:
New York is the world's largest financial center by market cap, volume, and influence.
If you trade stocks, currencies, or commodities, you’re feeling New York’s pulse — even if you don’t realize it.
🔔 Trading Fact:
The NYSE alone handles over $20 trillion in listed market cap!
🌍 2. London: The Forex King
Nickname: The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street (referring to the Bank of England)
Key Institutions:
London Stock Exchange (LSE)
Bank of England
Hundreds of forex and investment firms
Why It Matters:
London is the epicenter of forex trading — commanding nearly 40% of the global forex market turnover.
Its time zone also bridges Asia and North America, making it crucial for liquidity during major sessions.
🔔 Trading Fact:
The 4 PM London Fix is a major reference point for institutional forex traders worldwide.
🌍 3. Tokyo: The Asian Anchor
Nickname: The Gateway to the East
Key Institutions:
Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)
Bank of Japan (BOJ)
Why It Matters:
Tokyo sets the tone for Asian markets — and often for global risk appetite during the Asian session.
The Japanese yen (JPY) is the third most traded currency globally, often acting as a safe-haven barometer during market turmoil.
🔔 Trading Fact:
Japan is also home to massive institutional players known as the "Japanese real money accounts" — pension funds, insurers, and mega-banks.
🌍 4. Hong Kong & Singapore: The Dual Dragons
Nicknames:
Hong Kong: Asia’s World City
Singapore: The Lion City
Why They Matter:
Hong Kong: Gateway for global money flowing into China and emerging Asian markets.
Singapore: Major hub for forex trading, wealth management, and commodity trading.
Both cities are fiercely competitive, tech-driven, and strategically vital for accessing Asia’s fast-growing economies.
🔔 Trading Fact:
Singapore is now ranked among the top 3 global forex trading hubs, catching up fast to London and New York.
🌍 5. Zurich: The Quiet Giant
Nickname: The Bank Vault of Europe
Key Institutions:
Swiss National Bank (SNB)
Swiss private banking giants (UBS, Credit Suisse)
Why It Matters:
Zurich represents stability, security, and discretion. It's a powerhouse in private banking, wealth management, and gold trading.
The Swiss franc (CHF) is another classic safe-haven currency — and Zurich's influence is a big reason why.
🔔 Nerdy Fact:
Despite its small size, Switzerland punches way above its weight in forex and commodity markets.
🗺️ Why These Cities Matter to Your Trading
Liquidity:
Big cities = Big volumes = Tighter spreads and faster executions.
Market Movements:
Economic reports, policy decisions, and corporate news from these capitals can spark global volatility.
Session Overlaps:
New York–London overlap?
Tokyo–London handoff?
Understanding when these cities are active helps you time your trades better.
Final Thoughts :
You don't have to live in New York or Tokyo to trade like a pro.
But you do need to understand where the big moves are born.
Follow the money.
Watch the capitals.
Trade smarter.
Markets may seem chaotic — but behind the noise, the world’s financial capitals keep the rhythm steady.
put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
Japanese Yen Pairs: A Short Guide on Relative StrengthIndicators are a popular choice among many traders, and they certainly have their place in my own toolkit. But sometimes it is best to simply look the price to gauge strength. And doing so, it can help us scenario plan for future events. After I take a quick look at Japanese yen pairs, I wrap up on my preferred setup.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index
Trading Strategy and CEX Screen
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
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CEX(Centralized Exchange): Centralized Exchange
DEX(Decentralized Exchange): Decentralized Exchange
As coin futures trading becomes active, I think they started classifying the coin futures charts of CEX exchanges.
-
Tradingview supports various screeners.
There are several screeners in the menu at the bottom, so check them out.
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As the coin market grows, it is being classified into various themes.
I think this movement means that it is evolving into a form similar to the existing stock market.
If this classification continues to be segmented, it is likely that individual investors will eventually find it increasingly difficult to make profits.
Therefore, in order to adapt to these changes, your investment style, that is, your trading strategy, must be clear.
The trading strategy must be clear on 1. Investment period, 2. Investment size, 3. Trading method and profit realization method.
The above 1-3 must be clear.
You must classify the coin (token) you want to trade by investment period, and determine the investment size according to the investment period.
And, you must proceed with the transaction by determining the trading method and profit realization method accordingly.
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To create a trading method, you must check whether there is support near the HA-Low and HA-High indicators and create a trading method accordingly.
Basically, when the HA-Low indicator rises, it is a buying period, and when the HA-High indicator is met, it is a selling period.
In most cases, trading occurs in the HA-Low ~ HA-High indicator range as above.
If it is supported by the HA-High indicator and rises, it will show a stepwise upward trend, and if it is resisted by the HA-Low indicator and falls, it will show a stepwise downward trend.
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If you can trade in decimals like the coin market, you can set a different profit realization method.
Basically, you will sell the number of coins (tokens) you purchased and earn cash profits.
However, if you can trade in decimals, you can increase the number of coins (tokens) by selling the amount of the purchase principal.
In this way, you can increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit and earn large profits in the mid- to long-term.
You can decide whether to earn cash profits right now or increase the number of coins (tokens) for the future depending on your investment style.
For example, I think it is a good idea to increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit for coins (tokens) that can be held for the long term, such as BTC and ETH.
Therefore, you should think about which coin (token) to hold for the long term and decide on the profit realization method accordingly.
This method can reduce the pressure on funds even if the trading period is long because the investment money is rotated.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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Why Financial Clarity Comes Before Any Forex Trade?Before any strategy or setup, I ask one thing: is my personal financial foundation strong enough to support this trade?
In this reflection, I explore the direct impact that personal finance management has on trading performance — not as an abstract idea, but as a daily reality. When financial clarity is missing, emotional decision-making creeps in. When it’s present, I trade with more patience, discipline, and perspective.
This is not trading advice. It’s a caution to those who see trading as a way out, rather than something built upon stable ground.
Guess what? I am on a Demo Account. I will keep on trading on a Demo Account until I know that I have a solid risk management plan and a trading methodology that both will give me consistent profits.
The whole Idea with personal finance management in forex trading is to know whether you can afford trading and once you know the answer to that what is your game plan.
Just a quick hint.. If your answer is no; meaning that today you cannot afford trading, don't be discouraged, there is still a plan that can be designed. Actually, I think the ones who cannot afford trading are in a better positions than those who can.
The ones who cannot afford trading today, can easily start learning without having the itch to open a live account.
Why Volume Bar Colors Can Mislead You█ The Truth Behind Volume Bars — What Do Green and Red Actually Mean?
Most traders learn early on that green volume bars mean bullish activity, and red bars mean bearish pressure. But is it really that simple? What does volume truly reflect, and are we making assumptions that can mislead us?
█ What Volume Actually Is
Volume represents the number of shares/contracts traded during a specific time interval. Every transaction includes both a buyer and a seller. So, volume itself doesn’t distinguish whether a trade was bullish or bearish. Instead, platforms color volume bars based on price movement:
Green: If price closed higher than it opened.
Red: If price closed lower than it opened.
Some platforms, like TradingView, allow you to color volume based on whether the price closed higher or lower than the previous candle’s close.
So YOU, as a trader, have the chance to decide whether to assign volume bars either bullish or bearish! It’s a setting parameter anyone can change. Traders around the globe might look at the same volume bar, but some interpret it as bearish, while others interpret it as bullish. What is the most correct way?
█ The Assumption Behind the Color
This coloring assumes that:
A rising price means buyers were more aggressive (lifting the ask).
A falling price means sellers were more aggressive (hitting the bid).
This is a proxy — an approximation. It simplifies market pressure into a binary outcome: if price goes up, it's bullish volume; if it goes down, it's bearish. But the market isn't always so binary.
However, the assumption is only an approximation of buying vs. selling. In reality, every single trade involves both a buyer and a seller, so volume itself isn’t inherently “buy” or “sell” – what matters is who initiated the trades. As one trading expert explains, talking about “buying volume” vs “selling volume” can be misleading: for every buyer there is a seller, so volume cannot be literally split into purchases and sales. Instead, what traders really mean by “bullish volume” is that buyers were more aggressive (lifting offers) and drove the price up, whereas “bearish volume” means sellers were more aggressive (hitting bids) and drove the price down. The colored volume bar is essentially a proxy for which side won the battle during that bar.
█ Why This Can Mislead You
Price might close higher, not because there were more buyers than sellers (there never are — every trade has both), but because buyers were more urgent. And sometimes price moves due to other forces, like:
Short covering.
Stop-loss runs.
Liquidity vacuums.
This means a green bar might not reflect strong demand, just urgency from the other side closing their positions.
⚪ Example:
Take the well-known GameStop short squeeze as an example. If you looked only at the volume bars during that rally, you’d see a wall of strong green candles and high volume, which might suggest aggressive bullish buying.
However, that interpretation would be misleading.
Under the surface, the surge wasn't driven by fresh bullish conviction — it was massive short covering. Traders who were short were forced to buy back shares to cover their positions, which drove prices even higher. The volume was categorized as bullish, but the true intent behind the move had nothing to do with new buying pressure.
This demonstrates why relying solely on volume color or candle direction can lead to false conclusions about market sentiment.
Does this simple up/down volume labeling truly reflect buying vs. selling pressure? To a degree, yes – it captures the net price outcome, which often corresponds to who was more aggressive. For example, if many buyers are willing to pay higher prices (demand), a bar will likely close up and be colored green, reflecting that buying interest. Conversely, if eager sellers are dumping shares and undercutting each other, price will drop, yielding a red bar that flags selling pressure. Traders often use rising volume on up-moves as confirmation of a bullish trend’s strength, and high volume on down-moves as a warning of distribution, which indeed aligns with traditional analysis
That said, the method has important limitations and nuances, documented both anecdotally and in research:
⚪ Volume is not one-dimensional: Since every trade has both a buyer and seller, one cannot literally count “buy volume” vs “sell volume” without more information. The green/red coloring is a blunt classification based on price direction, not an actual count of buys or sells. It assumes the price change direction is an adequate proxy for the imbalance of buying vs. selling. This is often true in a broad sense, but it’s not a precise measure of order flow.
⚪ Intrabar Dynamics Are Lost: A single bar’s color only tells the end result of that interval, not the story of what happened during the bar. For instance, a 4-hour candle might be red (down) overall, but it could have contained three hours of rally (buying) followed by a steep selloff in the final hour that erased the gains. The volume bar will be colored red due to the net price drop, even though significant buying occurred earlier in the bar. In other words, a large red bar can mask that there were pockets of bullish activity within – the selling just happened to win out by the close of that period. Without looking at smaller time frames or detailed data, one can’t tell from a single color how the buying/selling tug-of-war progressed within the bar.
⚪ Gap Effects and Criteria Choices: The choice of using open vs. close or previous close can alter the interpretation of volume. As discussed, a day with a big gap can be labeled differently under the two methods. Neither is “right” or “wrong” – they just highlight different perspectives (intraday momentum vs. day-over-day change). Traders should be aware that colored volume bars are an approximation. A green volume bar under one method might turn red under the other method for the same bar. This doesn’t mean volume changed – it means the classification scheme changed. For example, a stock that closes below its open but still higher than yesterday will show a red volume bar by the intraday method but would be considered an “up-volume day” in OBV terms (previous close method).
⚪ No Indication of Magnitude or Commitment: A single color also doesn’t convey how much buying or selling pressure there was, only which side won. Two green volume bars might both be green, but one could represent a modest uptick with tepid buying, whereas another could represent an aggressive buying spree – the color alone doesn’t distinguish this (other than one bar likely being taller if volume was higher). Traders often need to consider volume relative to average (e.g. using volume moving averages or looking for volume spikes) to judge the significance of a move, not just the color.
█ Summary
The coloring of volume bars is a visual shortcut, not an exact science. It’s a guess based on price direction — useful, but imperfect. Understanding this helps traders avoid reading too much into what a green or red volume bar actually means.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
The Trader’s Trinity: THE BIG 3 OF TRADING!Everyone talks about strategies, indicators, and secret setups.
But if you strip trading down to its core, three pillars separate the winners from the quitters.
me @currencynerd , i call them The Big 3:
✅ Mindset/ Psychology
✅ Risk Management
✅ Strategy/ System with edge
You master these — you grow.
You neglect even one — you stay stuck, or worse, blow up.
Let’s dig in.
🧠 1. Mindset: Your Inner Edge
Markets aren't just math — they’re emotion, fear, greed, and uncertainty.
Successful traders:
Stick to plans during volatility
Stay calm after wins or losses
Manage ego (no "I must be right!" trades)
Key mindset habits:
Journaling trades (and emotions)
Setting realistic expectations
Accepting losses as part of the game
🔔 Reminder:
The market doesn't owe you anything. Stay humble, stay focused.
💣 2. Risk Management: Your Lifeline
Risk management isn't sexy — until you realize it's the reason you survive long enough to succeed.
Never risk more than 1–2% of your account on a single trade
Use stop-losses religiously
Understand position sizing — bigger conviction doesn’t mean "bet the farm"
Be comfortable being wrong — because you will be, often
Quote to live by:
"Amateurs focus on returns. Professionals focus on risk."
You don’t need to win every trade. You just need to protect your downside.
📈 3. Strategy: Your Playbook
Strategy gets all the attention — but it's only powerful if Mindset and Risk are already in place.
Your strategy should answer:
When do I enter?
When do I exit?
How do I manage trades in between?
Good strategies:
Are tested (backtested and forward tested)
Are simple (complexity often kills execution)
Fit your timeframe and personality
Trend following, mean reversion, breakout trading, scalping — it doesn’t matter.
What matters is consistency and execution.
🚀 Why the Big 3 Matter More Than Anything Else
Mindset keeps you stable.
Risk Management keeps you in the game.
Strategy gives you direction.
Neglect one and your trading will eventually collapse — no matter how good the other two are.
Successful trading isn’t a magic trick.
It’s mastering boring basics, executed relentlessly.
Final Thoughts from @currencynerd
You don’t need to find the Holy Grail.
You just need to respect the Big 3:
Master your mind.
Respect your risk.
Stick to your strategy.
Most traders are searching for the secret.
Elite traders are perfecting the fundamentals.
Which group are you going to be in?
put together by : @currencynerd
courtesy of : @TradingView
A 3-Step Process For Analytical SuccessIn this video I go through the 3-step process of implementing a Bias, Narrative, and Model.
This process was a game-changer for me when it came to analysis, as well as taking actual trades. It considered high-probability targets, patience in waiting for traders to coming for me, and the calm of being prepared when it was time to take an entry. It filters out pointless trades, because if I don't have Bias, then I can't have a Narrative, and if I don't have a Narrative, then I don't have a Model.
I use ICT concepts, but this process works equally well for most other methodologies that aren't completely mechanical and algorithmic.
I give a real example of a trade I took yesterday on EURUSD where I utilized this 3-step process to frame a trade.
I hope you find this video insightful and gives you more clarity in your trading!
- R2F Trading
Breadbasket Basics: Trading Wheat Futures🟡 1. Introduction
Wheat may be a breakfast-table staple, but for traders, it’s a globally sensitive asset — a commodity that reacts to geopolitics, climate patterns, and shifting demand from dozens of countries.
Despite its critical role in food security and its status as one of the most traded agricultural commodities, wheat is often overlooked by traders who focus on corn or soybeans. Yet wheat offers a unique combination of liquidity, volatility, and macro sensitivity that makes it highly attractive for both hedgers and speculators.
If you’re new to trading wheat, this guide gives you a solid foundation: how the wheat market works, who the key players are, and what makes wheat such a dynamic futures product.
🌍 2. Types of Wheat and Where It Grows
One of the first things traders need to understand is that wheat is not a single, uniform product. It’s a diverse group of grain types, each with its own characteristics, end uses, and pricing dynamics.
The major classes of wheat include:
Hard Red Winter (HRW): High-protein wheat grown in the central U.S. — used in bread and baking.
Soft Red Winter (SRW): Lower protein, used for pastries and crackers.
Hard Red Spring (HRS): Grown in the Northern Plains; prized for high gluten content.
Durum Wheat: Used for pasta, grown mainly in North Dakota and Canada.
White Wheat: Grown in the Pacific Northwest; used for noodles and cereals.
Each class responds differently to weather, demand, and regional risks — giving traders multiple ways to diversify or hedge.
Major global producers include:
United States
Russia
Canada
Ukraine
European Union
Australia
India
These regions experience different planting and harvesting calendars — and their weather cycles are often out of sync. This creates trading opportunities year-round.
🛠️ 3. CME Group Wheat Contracts
Wheat futures are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), part of the CME Group.
Here are the two key contracts:
o Standard Wheat
Ticker: ZW
Size = 5,000 bushels
Tick = 0.0025 = $12.50
Margin = ~$1,750
o Micro Wheat
Ticker: MZW
Size = 500 bushels
Tick = 0.0050 = $2.50
Margin = ~$175
Keep in mind that margins are subject to change — always confirm with your broker. Micro contracts are ideal for scaling in/out of trades or learning market structure without large capital risk.
📅 4. Wheat’s Seasonality and Supply Chain
Unlike corn or soybeans, wheat is planted and harvested across multiple seasons depending on the variety and geography.
In the U.S., winter wheat (HRW and SRW) is planted in the fall (September–November) and harvested in early summer (May–July). Spring wheat (HRS) is planted in spring (April–May) and harvested late summer.
Globally, things get even more staggered:
Australia’s wheat is harvested in November–December
Ukraine and Russia harvest in June–August
Argentina’s crop comes off the fields in December–January
This scattered global schedule means news headlines about one country’s weather or war (think Ukraine in 2022) can quickly shift sentiment across the entire futures curve.
📈 5. Who Trades Wheat and Why
Wheat is traded by a wide range of participants — each with their own objectives and strategies. Understanding their behavior can give you an edge in anticipating market moves.
Commercial hedgers:
Farmers lock in prices to protect against adverse weather or market crashes.
Grain elevators and exporters use futures to manage inventory risk.
Flour mills hedge their input costs to protect profit margins.
Speculators:
Hedge funds and CTAs trade wheat based on global macro trends, weather anomalies, or technical setups.
Retail traders increasingly use micro contracts to gain exposure to agricultural markets with lower capital risk.
Spread traders bet on pricing differences between wheat classes or harvest years.
🔍 For retail traders especially, micro contracts like XW open the door to professional markets without oversized exposure.
🧠 6. What Makes Wheat Unique in Futures Markets
Wheat is often considered the most geopolitically sensitive of the major grains. Here’s why:
Price can spike fast — even on rumor alone (e.g., export bans or missile strikes near ports).
Production risks are global — the market reacts not just to the U.S. crop, but to conditions in Russia, Ukraine, and Australia.
Storage and quality matter — protein levels and moisture content affect milling demand.
Unlike corn, wheat doesn’t have a single dominant industrial use (like ethanol). This means food demand is king, and food security often drives policy decisions that affect futures pricing.
📌 7. Summary / Takeaway
Wheat may not get as much media attention as corn or soybeans, but it’s a deeply important — and deeply tradable — market. Its global footprint, class differences, and sensitivity to weather and politics make it a must-know for serious agricultural futures traders.
Whether you're just starting out or looking to diversify your trading playbook, understanding wheat is an essential step. Learn its rhythms, follow its news, and respect the fact that every crop cycle brings a new story to the market.
🧭 This article is part of an ongoing educational series exploring futures trading in agricultural commodities.
📅 Watch for the next release: “Soybeans: The Global Protein Powerhouse.”
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
PineScript v6: Conditional Expressions from Libraries
I thought it appropriate to make some quick notes on calling conditional expressions from PineScript v6 libraries, seeing as I have recently updated all of my libraries to v6 and most of my function exports output booleans or values that are ultimately derived from other functions that output booleans.
When calling functions in v6 that output booleans or values derived from other functions that output booleans, it is best practice to first declare the function return globally before you use said output as input for anything else.
For example, instead of calling my swing low and uptrend functions (which both return booleans) as part of a broader conditional expression:
//@version=6
indicator('Example Conditional Expression 1')
import theEccentricTrader/PubLibSwing/3 as sw
import theEccentricTrader/PubLibTrend/2 as tr
uptrend = sw.sl() and tr.ut()
plotshape(uptrend)
I would first declare the function returns as global variables and then call the broader conditional expression using said variables:
//@version=6
indicator('Example Conditional Expression 2')
import theEccentricTrader/PubLibSwing/3 as sw
import theEccentricTrader/PubLibTrend/2 as tr
sl = sw.sl()
ut = tr.ut()
uptrend = sl and ut
plotshape(uptrend)
This demonstrates different behaviour from v5, where you could combine functions that output booleans in conditional expressions without error or warning.
The same also applies to functions that output values derived from other functions that output booleans. In the example below, my swing low price and bar index functions output float and integer values, respectively, but these values are derived from the swing low function, which is a function that returns a boolean. So these return values should also be first declared globally for later use, just like the swing low and uptrend functions:
//@version=6
indicator('Example Conditional Expression 3', overlay = true)
import theEccentricTrader/PubLibSwing/3 as sw
import theEccentricTrader/PubLibTrend/2 as tr
sl = sw.sl()
ut = tr.ut()
slp_0 = sw.slp(0)
slpbi_0 = sw.slpbi(0)
slp_1 = sw.slp(1)
slpbi_1 = sw.slpbi(1)
if sl and ut
line.new(slpbi_1, slp_1, slpbi_0, slp_0, color = color.green)
Ratio Charts in TradingView and IAAbove you can see the Bitcoin to Ethereum ratio chart. Ratio analysis between two or more symbols is a critical method for comparing the strength and weakness of assets relative to each other. TradingView offers basic capabilities for this task, but with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and custom scripts, much more advanced and creative analyses can be conducted.
Here are some practical ideas:
1. Creating Conditional Ratio Scripts
2. Comparing Relative Averages and Issuing Smart Signals
3. Calculating Composite Ratios of Multiple Assets
4. Smart Alerts Based on Price Pattern Breakouts
For more information, search Google for "How to Use Ratio Charts in TradingView: A Hidden Gem for Traders."
Why Being Delusional Might Be Your Greatest Asset in TradingIf you think you’re going to make a full-time living trading financial markets you’re completely delusional!... and that's a good thing.
It was 1997, and two friends—let’s call them Reed and Marc—thought it would be fun to have a movie night and rent Apollo 13 from their local Blockbuster store.
For those of you who might need some context, Blockbuster was a video rental store where you’d go to rent a movie you’d like to watch.
This was shortly after discovering fire and the wheel, and it was revolutionary. At its peak, Blockbuster was worth approximately $5 billion and had over 80,000 employees across 9000 stores worldwide.
Their business model was very simple, and although they generated revenue in various ways, their core revenue was generated through a combination of rental fees, video sales and late fees.
You see, it just so happened that our two friends who thought it would be fun to rent Apollo 13, chill at home, and eat popcorn would essentially have to pay the $40 late fee, and they were admittedly, not too happy about that.
As they sat in frustration, one of them came up with the idea to start a website and rent movies to people without charging a late fee.
Instead people would just pay a monthly subscription of around $19.95 per month and they could rent up to three movies of their choosing and keep it for as long as they wanted, no rental fee, no video sales, no late fees, just a monthly subscription of $19.95.
If people wanted to rent a new set of DVD’s then all they’d need to do is return the DVD’s they’d initially rented and the new set was mailed to them within a day or two.
Now it is important to mention that all this occurred toward the end of the third industrial revolution and the internet was not nearly as advanced as it is today. People would use a dial-up connection which only produced 56 kbps or slower.
Streaming was near impossible unless you enjoyed watching a movie in three-minute increments before it loaded the next three minutes. Downloading a movie could take an entire day or even longer.
It’s fair to say that our two friends Reed and Marc were throwing stones at giants, but they had very good aim.
I’m sure you heard the story where a boy aimed at a giant's head and threw him with a stone. Turns out the boy won that fight, and ultimately claimed victory for his people, but I digress.
You see Reed had a background in computer science and software development, and at the time he co-founded a software company called Pure Software. Marc had a background in marketing and product development.
It’s safe to say that they made a very good team, but they were still going up against giants, they were challenging a system that was working with a system that was not even established yet. Essentially, they either had to be very confident or extremely delusional. Turns out they were both.
They decided to brainstorm a few names for their little startup, everything from Kibble to TakeOne, and even DirectPix and none of it seemed to stick. Eventually, they decided to combine the words “internet” and “film” to make “Netflix”.
Today Netflix is the most popular streaming platform, with its annual revenue peaking at 33.7 Billion back in 2023.
I share this story with you because it really takes more than just experience, skill, and luck to take on giants, I would argue you need to have a healthy amount of delusion as well.
So, if you think you're going to make a full-time living trading financial markets, you're completely delusional—and that might be the best thing going for you.
Because the truth is, every breakthrough, every disruption, every world-changing idea begins with someone who dares to believe in something that doesn’t quite make sense to the rest of the world—yet.
Reed and Marc didn’t just challenge a system; they challenged what was possible at the time. They bet on a future that didn’t exist—on a slower internet, a skeptical audience, and an unproven model. What looked like delusion was a vision in disguise.
In trading, as in business and life, it’s not the most logical or the most experienced who wins—it’s often those who are bold enough to stay in the game when everyone else calls it crazy. You’ll need skill, yes.
Strategy, of course. But you’ll also need the unreasonable belief that you can beat the odds, learn the rules, and then rewrite them entirely. So go ahead—be delusional.
Just make sure you’ve got the grit, the patience, and the aim to back it up.
What “giant” are you bold enough to challenge next?
Understanding Liquidity: Where Big Players Hunt Stops
Understanding Liquidity: Where Big Players Hunt Stops
Ever wondered why price suddenly spikes through your stop-loss and reverses moments later? That’s not a coincidence—it’s liquidity at play. This article will teach you how liquidity zones work, why stop hunts happen, and how to avoid getting trapped like the crowd.
🔵 What Is Liquidity in Trading?
Liquidity refers to how easily an asset can be bought or sold without drastically affecting its price. But in practical trading, liquidity is more than just volume—it’s where traders *place* their money.
Large players—institutions, market makers, or big accounts—need liquidity to fill orders.
They target areas where many retail stop-losses or pending orders are stacked.
These areas are often just above resistance or below support—classic stop-loss zones.
To move large positions without slippage, smart money uses stop hunts to trigger retail orders and create the liquidity they need.
🔵 Where Do Liquidity Zones Form?
Liquidity often builds up in predictable areas:
Above resistance: Where shorts place stop-losses.
Below support: Where longs place stop-losses.
Swing highs/lows: Obvious turning points everyone sees.
Round numbers: e.g., 1000, 10,000, 50,000.
Breakout zones: Where breakout traders place entries or stops.
These zones act like magnets. When price approaches them, it accelerates—seeking the liquidity pool behind the level.
🔵 What Is a Stop Hunt?
A stop hunt happens when price moves just far enough to trigger stop-losses before reversing. This isn’t market noise—it’s an intentional move by big players to:
Trigger a flood of stop orders (buy or sell).
Fill their own large positions using that liquidity.
Reverse price back to fair value or the prior trend.
Example: Price breaks above resistance → stops get hit → institutions sell into that liquidity → price drops sharply.
🔵 Signs You’re in a Liquidity Grab
Look for these clues:
Fast spike beyond key levels followed by rejection.
Wick-heavy candles near highs/lows.
Price touches a level, then sharply reverses.
High volume on failed breakouts or fakeouts.
These are signs of a liquidity event—not a real breakout.
🔵 How to Trade Around Liquidity Zones
You can use liquidity traps to your advantage instead of becoming their victim.
Avoid obvious stops: Don’t place stops directly below support or above resistance. Instead, use ATR-based or structure-based stops.
Wait for confirmation: Don’t chase breakouts. Let price break, reject, then re-enter inside the range.
Watch for wick rejections: If price quickly returns after a level is breached, it's often a trap.
Use higher timeframe confluence: Liquidity grabs are more powerful when they align with HTF reversals or zones.
🔵 Real Example: Liquidity Sweep Before Reversal
In this chart, we see a textbook liquidity grab:
Price breaks below support.
Longs get stopped out.
Candle prints a long wick.
Market reverses into an uptrend.
This is where smart traders enter— after the trap is set, not during.
🔵 Final Thoughts
Liquidity is the invisible hand of the market. Stop hunts aren’t personal—they’re structural. Big players simply go where the orders are. As retail traders, the best thing we can do is:
Understand where traps are set.
Avoid being part of the crowd.
Trade the reaction, not the initial breakout.
By thinking like the smart money, you can stop getting hunted—and start hunting for better trades.
Trading Performance Review🎯 April 4 – May 3 | Trading Performance Review
Over the past 30 days, I executed 146 trades with a data-driven strategy focused on risk-adjusted returns and quantitative consistency.
🔍 Performance Metrics:
Total Trades: 146
Win Rate: 70.55%
Winning Trades: 103
Losing Trades: 43
Profitable Days: 22 / 30
No-Trade Days: 2
Winning vs Losing Trade Ratio:
✅ Winning Trades: 70.5%
❌ Losing Trades: 29.5%
Daily Outcome Distribution:
🟢 Profitable Days: 73.3%
🔴 Loss Days: 20%
⚪ No Trade: 6.7%
📈 This outcome reflects a strategy rooted in structured risk management, discipline, and probability-based execution — not impulsive decisions. Each trade was placed with purpose, not emotion.
With every data point, my trading edge sharpens. The goal remains the same: consistent performance through controlled risk and strategic action.
Progress is not measured by the number of trades, but by the quality of each decision.
This daily pattern can change your view on price!Dear Community,
How many patterns do you know?
<5?
<20?
>20?
How many of them actually work with GREAT accuracy?
Patterns are something that we often use in trying to predict the markets….BUT I dear to say pattern alone won’t work?
THE PATTERN NEED A FRAMEWORK!
let’s discuss this “pattern” highlighted on your screen.
Why is the candle after that “doji “ higher?
Often you try to “call tops” in the market place.
And after seeing this “doji”…. WE SELL RIGHT?
if the maker is going up why do we try and call a top?
Why do we try and not “follow the trend?”
On your daily chart examine this.
IF THE MARKET IF BULLISH AND I SEE A DOJI!
Study the candle that formed just after. YOU WILL BE AMAZED BY THE FINDINGS 😃.
No I will not share the stats. If an “homework” for your own development. Let’s discuss this further in the comments below.
Trading Without Goals Is Just Gambling With StructureA lot of traders talk about discipline. But few realize that discipline has to be anchored to something. It doesn’t work in a vacuum. Without a clear reason to stay focused, most people eventually fall back into overtrading, revenge trading, or breaking their own rules.
That “something” is your personal set of financial goals.
If you’re trading without a list of well-defined, written goals—short term and long term—you’re not building a system. You’re improvising. And over time, the market will punish improvisation.
Goals Create the Structure That Risk Management Lives In
It’s common to hear that risk management is the key to long-term success in Forex. That’s true. But risk management doesn’t exist in isolation. You can’t determine how much to risk per trade if you don’t know what you’re aiming for in the big picture.
When your trading plan is connected to real financial targets—like building a retirement fund, generating side income, or compounding over years, you stop treating each trade like a lottery ticket.
Your lot size changes. Your trade frequency changes. Your psychology changes.
Clarity Reduces Emotion
One of the biggest causes of emotional trading is uncertainty. When you’re not clear on where you're going or why you’re even in a trade, the smallest loss can shake your confidence. A win might tempt you to increase your size. A string of losses might tempt you to change systems or walk away completely.
But when you’re trading with a purpose, decisions become less reactive. You have a framework to evaluate whether something aligns with your objectives.
And that makes it easier to say no to setups that don’t fit, or to walk away from the screen when nothing’s there.
Write Your Goals Down—In Detail
If your goals aren’t written, they don’t exist.
And “make money” is not a goal. It’s a wish.
Good goals are specific, time-based, and measurable. For example:
Grow a $1,000 account to $1,500 over 6 months by risking 1% per trade
Extract 4% per month on average while maintaining a max drawdown of 10%
Build a track record of 100 trades with full journal documentation and risk control
Once written, these goals form the backbone of your trading plan. They influence your risk-per-trade, your system choice, and how often you trade.
They also give you a benchmark. You’ll know if you’re making progress or just going in circles.
Final Thought: Know What You’re Playing For
Too many traders operate without direction. They chase results, compare themselves to others, and burn out. It doesn’t have to be this way.
Start with the end in mind. Know why you’re trading. Set real goals. And let those goals drive your decisions, your risk management, and your daily focus.
Discipline becomes easier when you have something worth being disciplined for.
I have been for 2.5 years on Demo, and will not move from there until I achieve the targets that I have set. Achieving those targets on Demo does mean I will achieve them on live trading. On the other hand, not achieving them on a Demo account mean that the only thing I will be able to achieve on a live account is blow the account away.
The Golden Grain: Trading Corn in Global Markets🟡 1. Introduction
Corn isn’t just something you eat off the cob at a summer barbecue — it’s one of the most widely traded agricultural commodities in the world. Behind every kernel lies a powerful story of food security, global trade, biofuels, and speculative capital.
Whether you’re a farmer managing risk, a trader chasing macro trends, or simply curious about how weather affects global prices, corn futures sit at the crossroads of agriculture and finance. In this article, we’ll explore what makes corn a global economic driver, how it behaves as a futures product, and what traders need to know to approach the corn market intelligently.
🌎 2. Where Corn Grows: Global Powerhouses
Corn is cultivated on every continent except Antarctica, but a handful of countries dominate production and exports.
United States – By far the largest producer and exporter. The “Corn Belt” — spanning Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, and parts of Ohio and Missouri — produces the majority of U.S. corn. U.S. exports also set global benchmarks for pricing.
Brazil & Argentina – These two South American powerhouses are crucial to the global corn supply, especially during the Northern Hemisphere’s off-season.
China – Though a top producer, China consumes most of its own supply and has become a key importer during deficit years.
Corn is typically planted in the U.S. between late April and early June and harvested from September through November. In Brazil, two crops per year are common — including the important safrinha (second crop), harvested mid-year.
Understanding where and when corn is grown is vital. Weather disruptions in any of these regions can ripple through the futures market within hours — or even minutes.
💹 3. Corn as a Futures Market Power Player
Corn is one of the most liquid agricultural futures markets in the world, traded primarily on the CME Group’s CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade). It attracts a diverse set of participants:
Producers and Commercials: Farmers, ethanol refiners, and food manufacturers use corn futures to hedge price risk.
Speculators and Funds: Hedge funds and retail traders speculate on corn price direction, volatility, and seasonal patterns.
Arbitrageurs and Spreads: Traders bet on relative price differences between contracts (e.g., old crop vs. new crop spreads).
The deep liquidity and relatively low tick size make corn accessible, but its price is highly sensitive to weather, government reports (like WASDE), and international trade policies.
🏗️ 4. CME Group Corn Futures: What You Can Trade
The CME Group offers both standard and micro-sized contracts for corn. Here’s a quick overview:
o Standard Corn
Ticker: ZC
Size = 5,000 bushels
Tick = 0.0025 = $12.50
Margin = ~$1,050
o Micro Corn
Ticker: XC
Size = 1,000 bushels
Tick = 0.0050 = $2.50
Margin = ~$105
⚠️ Always confirm margin requirements with your broker. They change with market volatility and exchange updates.
The availability of micro corn contracts has opened the door for smaller traders to manage risk or test strategies without over-leveraging.
📊 5. Historical Price Behavior & Seasonality
Corn is deeply seasonal — and so is its price action.
During planting season (April–May), traders watch weekly USDA crop progress reports and early weather forecasts like hawks. A wet spring can delay planting, leading to tighter supply expectations and early price spikes.
Then comes pollination (July) — the most critical stage. This is when heatwaves or drought can do serious damage to yield potential. If temperatures are unusually high or rainfall is scarce during this window, markets often react with urgency, bidding up futures prices in anticipation of reduced output.
By harvest (September–November), prices often stabilize — especially if production matches expectations. But early frost, wind storms, or excessive rain during harvest can still trigger sharp volatility.
Many experienced traders overlay weather models, soil moisture maps, and historical USDA data to anticipate season-driven price shifts.
Even international factors play a role. For example, when Brazil’s safrinha crop suffers a drought, global corn supply tightens — impacting CME prices even though the crop is thousands of miles away.
🧠 6. What Every New Trader Should Know
If you’re new to corn trading, here are some key principles:
Watch the Weather: It’s not optional. Daily forecasts, drought monitors, and precipitation anomalies can move markets. NOAA, Open-Meteo, and private ag weather services are your friends.
Know the Reports: The WASDE report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), USDA Crop Progress, and Prospective Plantings reports can shake up pricing more than you might expect — even if changes seem small.
Mind the Time of Year: Seasonality affects liquidity, volatility, and trader behavior. March–August tends to be the most active period.
Understand Global Demand: The U.S. exports a huge portion of its crop — with China, Mexico, and Japan as major buyers. A tariff tweak or surprise Chinese cancellation can cause wild price swings.
🛠️ Good corn trading is 50% strategy, 50% meteorology.
🧭 This article is part of a broader educational series exploring the relationship between agricultural commodities and weather patterns. In the upcoming pieces, we’ll dive deeper into how temperature and precipitation affect corn, wheat, and soybeans — with real data, charts, and trading insights.
📅 Watch for the next release: “Breadbasket Basics: Trading Wheat Futures.”
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
The VWAP Blueprint: Your Gateway to Smart Money MovesVWAP: Volume Weighted Average Price
What is VWAP?
VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price. It’s a trading benchmark that gives the
average price an asset has traded at throughout the day, weighted by volume. This makes it
more accurate than a simple moving average, especially for intraday analysis.
Unlike regular moving averages that treat every price equally, VWAP emphasizes price levels
where heavier trading occurred, providing a realistic snapshot of the true average market price institutions and algorithms are interacting with.
The VWAP Bounce + Rejection Entry Strategy helps you enter trades at optimal zones of value
using the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP). This dynamic line acts as a magnet for
price and often becomes a bounce zone when volume aligns.
Instead of guessing support or resistance levels, this strategy lets you use VWAP as a real-
time value guide, waiting for price to pull into it, show rejection, and bounce away with
momentum.
How VWAP Works
The VWAP is calculated cumulatively from the market open:
VWAP = (Cumulative Price × Volume) / Cumulative Volume
With each tick or candle:
Multiply the price by volume.
Add it to the previous cumulative total.
Divide by the total volume so far.
This means VWAP resets daily and builds throughout the session, offering real-time insight
Into what traders are willing to pay based on volume-weighted interest.
Why VWAP Matters
When price pulls back into VWAP and bounces with rejection, it signals that traders are
defending value. Smart money often uses VWAP as a tool for entries or exits. When you align
with that behavior and combine it with a clean rejection candle, you get a high-probability
trade setup that’s based on logic and flow, not emotion.
1. Institutional Benchmark
Institutions and smart money often aim to buy below VWAP (to secure a better-than-average
price) and sell above VWAP. So the line often acts as a magnet or barrier where decisions
cluster.
2. Intraday Bias Gauge
Price above VWAP: Buyers dominate; bullish bias.
Price below VWAP: Sellers control; bearish bias.
3. Support/Resistance & Mean Reversion
VWAP behaves like a dynamic equilibrium level. Price frequently:
Pulls back to VWAP during trends
Here's a clear down trend 50 and 200 ma cross over. Await a pull back to trend or ma for continuation.
Reverts to VWAP in consolidations
Finds support/resistance at or around VWAP
How to Use VWAP in Trading
1. Trend Confirmation
Use VWAP as a bias filter: if price is cleanly above, favor longs if below, favor shorts.
Combine it with higher highs/lows (or lower highs/lows) to validate trend strength.
2. Entry Opportunities
In an uptrend: look for pullbacks to VWAP as a buy zone
In a downtrend: look for retests of VWAP as a short opportunity.
3. Mean Reversion Strategy
If price is far extended from VWAP, and volume shows divergence or exhaustion, consider
fading the move with a target toward VWAP (especially in range-bound sessions).
4. Anchored VWAP
You can anchor VWAP to specific candles, like a major high, low, or news release, to gauge
value zones within a custom context.
Best Timeframes for VWAP
Intraday trading (1min to 15min): Ideal for scalpers and day traders.
VWAP resets daily it’s not designed for swing trading unless you're using anchored VWAP.
Pro Tips
Don’t use VWAP in isolation pair it with:
Market structure (HH/LL, BOS/CHoCH)
Volume spikes or divergence
Liquidity zones (order blocks, FVGs, imbalance)
Session opens (London/NY open confluence)
Use VWAP for confluence with other tools, not as a single trigger.
VWAP is more than just a line it's a window into the heartbeat of the market. It shows where
real money is positioned and whether you’re trading with or against that flow.
Used with structure and context, VWAP becomes a weapon for precision entries, smart risk, and clean execution.
Vwap entry types
1. VWAP Bounce (Mean Reversion Entry)
Best for: Range-bound or early in the session.
Entry: Price pulls back to VWAP and shows signs of rejection (e.g., pin bar, engulfing candle).
Confirmation: Look for confluence with support/resistance, order blocks, or volume spikes.
Stop: Below the recent swing low (if long).
Target: Prior high or key level.
2. VWAP Break and Retest (Trend Continuation)
Best for: Trending markets.
Entry: Price breaks above VWAP with momentum and retests it from the other side.
Confirmation: Lower time frame bullish structure, bullish candle on retest.
Stop: Below VWAP or structure low.
Target: pivot levels or structure high, fib levels.
3. VWAP Reclaim (Reversal Entry)
Best for: Capturing a shift in momentum.
Entry: Price moves below VWAP, then reclaims it (closes back above with strength).
Confirmation: Break of market structure + volume surge
Stop: Below reclaim candle.
Target: Range high or key fib levels.
4. VWAP Confluence with Other Indicators
Combine with:
Moving Averages: e.g., 9, 50 and 200 SMA OR EMA
Fibonacci retracement levels
Order blocks / Liquidity zones
Pivot points
Use VWAP as a dynamic support/resistance level and enter when multiple signals align.
Vwap examples
How to Place Different Types of Futures Orders on TradingViewThis tutorial video walks you through how to place basic futures orders on tradingview including market, limit, and stop orders.
We also discuss bracket orders, modifying orders, and cancelling orders, as well time of order effect.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital.
Crypto Phases Explained: From Bitcoin Season to Full-On FOMO !Hello Traders 🐺
I hope you're doing well. In this idea, I want to dive into the different phases of the crypto market, because I feel like many new traders — and even some semi-pros — still don’t fully grasp this fundamental concept. So make sure to read this until the end and feel free to ask your questions in the comments below!
🔹 PHASE 1 – Bitcoin Season
This is where it all begins.
You can guess from the name: BTC starts outperforming almost every altcoin, especially ETH. In this phase, Bitcoin’s price often grows rapidly while most alts lag behind. As BTC's market cap rises, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) also increases — and this is clearly visible on the chart.
In the current market, BTC.D is rising toward a key resistance level, suggesting we are still in late Phase 1, but possibly approaching a shift.
🔹 PHASE 2 – Ethereum Season
Why ETH and not the rest of the altcoins?
Because when smart money rotates out of BTC, the first stop is usually Ethereum, the second-largest asset by market cap. ETH is also the backbone of many other projects, so it makes sense that it leads the altcoin wave.
When ETH starts to outperform BTC, that’s your sign: Phase 2 has begun.
🔹 PHASES 3 & 4 – Altcoin Season
This is the fun part. 🤑
In Phase 3, we typically see larger cap altcoins (top 100 projects) begin to surge and hit new all-time highs. Then comes Phase 4, the final leg of the bull cycle — full-on FOMO. Even low-cap coins start doing 20x or more, and yes, many small investors suddenly feel rich.
🔎 So… how do we know what phase we’re in?
Excellent question. But a tricky one.
As mentioned, BTC.D is showing signs of weakness near a long-term resistance trendline. That could mean BTC is topping short-term, and ETH might soon start to take the lead. To confirm that, just watch the ETH/BTC chart closely.
For deeper confirmation, add these charts to your watchlist:
OTHERS/BTC
TOTAL2
TOTAL3
They help you see when capital starts flowing into mid and low-cap alts — and help you track the sunrise… and the sunset. 🌅
Final Note:
If you’re still confused during market volatility, don’t worry. Trading is a long and tough journey — and patience is key. Learn from your mistakes, stay disciplined, and always remember:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable. 🐺
Stay sharp,
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
Why I Hesitate on Long Wick Candles (and How I Trade Through It)In today’s live trading review, I highlight one of the key challenges I face when trading the ES:
I don’t always feel confident executing during long wick days.
So how do I deal with that? Simple: reduce risk and stick to the framework.
Watch as I walk you through this session, break down the setup, and share how you can identify and study your own trading weaknesses — so you can grow stronger, one trade at a time.
#OneCandlestickAtATime #LiveTrading #ESFutures #TradingPsychology
Mastering Stop Losses: How Not to Trigger Them at the Worst TimeThere are few things more humiliating in trading than setting a stop loss… only to have the market tag it by a hair’s breadth before rocketing in the direction you knew it was going to go.
Oftentimes (hopefully not too often), stop losses are the financial equivalent of slipping on a banana peel you placed yourself.
But stop losses aren't the enemy. Their placement, however, could be.
If you’ve ever rage-quit your chart after being wicked out by a fakeout, this one’s for you. Let’s talk about how to master stop losses — without feeling like the market is personally out to get you.
😬 The Necessary Evil: Why Stop Losses Exist
First, let's acknowledge the elephant in the room: stop losses sometimes sting. They're like smoke alarms. Annoying when they chirp over burnt toast, lifesaving when there’s an actual fire.
The purpose of a stop loss isn’t to predict exactly when you’re wrong — it’s to limit how wrong you can be. It's the difference between losing a quick battle and losing the whole war.
Trading without a stop loss is like walking a tightrope without a net — all fine until it’s not.
🤔 The Amateur Mistake: "Where Should I Put My Stop?"
A lot of traders approach stop-loss placement like they're picking lottery numbers: random, emotional, hopeful.
"I’ll just slap it 10 pips below my entry. Seems safe."
But the market doesn’t care about your preferred round numbers. It cares about liquidity, volatility, and structure, regardless if it's the forex market , the crypto space , or the biggest stock gainers out there.
Good stop-loss placement is about logic, not luck. It's about asking:
Where is my trade idea invalidated?
Where does the market prove me wrong?
If you're placing stops based on how much you're "willing to lose" rather than where your setup breaks down, you’re setting yourself up to be triggered — emotionally and financially.
💪 The Art of "Strategic Suffering"
Good stops hurt a little when they’re hit. That’s how you know they were placed properly.
Stops shouldn't be so tight they get hit on routine noise, but they also shouldn't be so far away that you need therapy if it fails. Think of it as strategic suffering: you’re accepting controlled pain now to avoid catastrophic pain later.
Legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones famously said: “The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.”
🤓 Where Smart Traders Place Their Stops
Want to know where smart money hides their stops? It's not random. It’s calculated.
Below key swing lows for long trades (how much below depends on the risk-reward ratio they’ve chosen to pursue)
Above key swing highs for shorts (how much above is, again, tied to the risk-reward ratio)
Outside of obvious support/resistance zones (also, risk-reward plays a role)
In other words: start thinking like the market. Where would a big player have to exit because the structure is truly broken? That’s where you want your stop.
👀 Avoiding the Stop-Hunter’s Trap
Is stop-hunting real? Oh yes. And no, it’s not personal. You're just very readable if you park your stops in obvious, lazy places.
The market loves liquidity. Price often pokes below swing lows or above highs because that’s where the money is. Stops create liquidity pockets that big players exploit to enter their trades at better prices.
So how do you avoid becoming easy prey?
Give stops a little breathing room past obvious levels.
Use volatility measures like ATR to set dynamic buffers.
Respect structure, not just random dollar/pip amounts.
A good stop is hidden in plain sight but protected by logic, not hope.
⚖️ Sizing Smarter: Risk per Trade Matters More Than Stop Distance (What’s Risk-Reward Ratio?)
Here’s where many traders mess up: they think tighter stops are always better. Wrong. Your stop distance and your position size are a package deal. If your trade idea requires a wider stop to be valid, your position size should shrink accordingly.
Trying to cram your usual size into a wide stop setup is how small losses turn into account-threatening disasters.
Hedge fund pioneer George Soros once said: “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that's important, but how much you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.”
Master your sizing relative to your stop, and you master your survival. In other words, the risk-reward ratio should be playing a key role in placing your stop losses.
🥤 Mental Stops vs Hard Stops: Pick Your Poison
Some traders swear by mental stops: “I'll get out when it hits this level.” Others use hard stops: set-and-forget protective orders baked into the system.
Both have pros and cons:
Mental stops allow flexibility but risk emotional sabotage.
Hard stops guarantee protection but can trigger on sudden, hollow wicks.
Pro tip? Use hard stops if you’re new or undisciplined. You don’t want to be the guy saying “I’ll close it soon...” while watching your unrealized loss grow a second head.
🤯 Stop-Loss Psychology: It’s You, Not the Market
If you find yourself constantly blaming “stop-hunting whales” or “market manipulation” every time you get tagged out... maybe it’s not them. Maybe it's your stop placement.
Discipline in trading isn’t just about clicking buttons at the right time. It’s about planning for the tough times—and sticking to your plan even when it feels bad.
❤️ Final Thought: Love Your Stops (Or at Least Respect Them)
Stop losses aren't your enemy. They're your overprotective friends. Sometimes they’ll throw you out of a trade you "knew" would come back. But more often, they’ll save you from very dangerous outcomes.
Mastering stop losses isn't about never getting stopped out. It’s about getting stopped out properly — with dignity, with minimal damage, and with your account intact.
In trading, pain is inevitable. Wipeouts are optional.
Your move: How do you manage your stops — and have you ever been wicked out so badly you considered quitting trading? Drop your best (or worst) stop-loss stories below.