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Pine Screener - Powerful tool for building programmable screenerHello Everyone, In this video, we have discussed on how to use pine screener utility of tradingview. We are making use of the indicator Divergence Screener for this demonstration and screen stocks undergoing bullish divergence. In a nutshell, here are the steps: 🎯 Use Stock Screener to build watchlist of less than 1000 symbols 🎯 Add the indicator you want to use in the pine screener to your favorites. 🎯 Pine screener can be accessed from the tradingview screener menu or you can simply click on the link www.tradingview.com 🎯 Add the watchlist and indicator to the pine screener and adjust the timeframe and indicator settings 🎯 Select the criteria to be scanned and press scan
Education
by Trendoscope
3
Middle East Tensions vs. Global Demand Hello Traders 🐺 🧠 Fundamental Insight: Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East — particularly tensions involving Iran, Israel, and unrest around the Red Sea shipping routes — have reignited fears of supply shocks in the oil market. But how much of this is just market sentiment, and how much is a real, structural threat? It’s important to note that most oil-producing nations in the Middle East are heavily reliant on oil revenue to sustain domestic budgets. Prolonged disruption in oil supply would backfire economically, forcing them to eventually restore production — or risk budget deficits, currency devaluation, or inflation. Moreover, while global efforts are pushing toward electrification and renewable energy, a large portion of electricity is still generated using fossil fuels — many of which are petroleum-based. So even as demand shifts in form (from gasoline to electricity), crude oil remains embedded in the global energy matrix. 🇺🇸 The U.S. & 🇨🇳 China: Macro Drivers at Work The U.S. remains the world’s largest oil producer thanks to shale output. Any significant rise in Brent can be quickly counterbalanced by a ramp-up in U.S. production. The Fed’s monetary policy also plays a role. A stronger USD (via rate hikes) generally pressures oil prices downward. China, as the largest importer of crude, has a decisive influence on demand. Weak industrial output or real estate troubles in China can nullify even a strong supply shock. Watch for China’s stimulus policies — any sign of renewed growth can boost Brent significantly. 📉 Technical Outlook (Brent Crude - Weekly Chart Hypothesis): As you can see on the weekly chart , price was trying to pump above the monthly resistance area however It's turned into the fake out and all of us knows that this is a massive sign of weakness for BRENT but I still think that price is currently could goes a little bit higher than the current level and break above the blue trend line in the mid term . Any news-driven spike (e.g., new conflict headlines) must be validated by volume and follow-through — otherwise, it's a fade opportunity. 🎯 Conclusion: Don’t blindly buy into every geopolitical headline. While the Middle East remains a key risk factor for Brent, true price action will depend on the balance between physical disruptions and global demand signals — particularly from the U.S. and China. In this market, the chart reacts first, but macro confirms the move. As traders, we must track both — not just price, but purpose. let me know what you are thinking about the current situation in the comment section down below ! and as always remember : 🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable , but almost always profitable 🐺 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
BLACKBULL:BRENTEducation
by Kiu_Coin
Are You Really Analyzing Or Just Defending your imagination? You might think you're analyzing every time you open a chart. But what if you're just looking for reasons to justify a bad trade? Real analysis is data-based. Justification is emotion-based. Let’s figure out if you're really trading smart or just lying to yourself. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: BINANCE:BTCUSDT is currently testing a strong resistance near the upper boundary of its parallel channel. A breakout to the upside looks likely soon. From this level, I expect at least a 5% gain, with a main target around $114,500. 📈🚀 Now , let's dive into the educational section, 🎯 Analysis or Mental Justification? Many traders, once they’re in a position, stop looking for truth and start looking for confirmation. Instead of reading what the chart actually says, they twist every line and indicator to make it look like their trade still makes sense even when it doesn’t. 🛠 TradingView Tools That Kill Self-Deception TradingView is way more than just a place to slap on some EMAs and MACDs. If used right, it can literally stop you from fooling yourself: Replay Tool – Use this to backtest without future data bias. It trains your brain to analyze based only on the present moment. Multi-Timeframe Layouts – View your idea across multiple timeframes. Confirmation bias collapses fast when you see the same chart from different angles. Volume Profile – This shows where real trading happens, not where you wish it would happen. Community Scripts & Public Indicators – Looking at someone else's logic helps you catch your own blind spots. Idea Journal & Posts – Publish your analysis and compare it with what actually happened. You’ll quickly see how often emotion was driving your trade. 😵‍💫 What Does Justification Even Look Like? It’s when you’re deep in the red but instead of managing your loss, you draw a new trendline… or add a reversed Fibonacci… or tell yourself, “It’s just a correction.” That’s not analysis. That’s emotional defense. 💡 Know the Real Difference Analysis = data-driven, emotion-free. Justification = emotion-driven, data-twisted. 🔂 Why Do You Keep Making the Same Mistake? Because your brain loves to feel right even when it's wrong. Instead of accepting reality, it tries to bend it. So you dig for signals to support your bad position, not question it. 🧠 The Psychology Behind the Trap What you’re feeling is cognitive dissonance. Two thoughts fighting in your head: “This position is failing.” “I don’t want to be wrong.” So your brain builds fake reasons to stay in it. Welcome to the mental loop that kills portfolios. 🎯 How To Break the Cycle Write down why you’re entering any trade before you open it. Only trade what you can explain, not what you hope. Decide your stop-loss level before you enter. If you’re “hoping” for something to turn around, it probably won’t. 🪞Be Brutally Honest With Yourself The real question isn’t “Can you analyze?” It’s “Can you admit you were wrong when it matters?” Every losing trade you hold onto out of ego is a reminder that you chose comfort over skill. ⚠️ What Makes a Pro Trader? A pro doesn’t just win trades. They cut losses fast. They don’t “marry” a position just because they drew a trendline. They survive by respecting truth, not bending it. 🧪 Train Your Brain To See Reality To break the habit of self-justification, you need to rewire your analysis process. Here's how: Before analyzing a chart, review your previous trade honestly. Ask: What made me enter? Strategy or emotion? Replay the chart with TradingView’s tool. If you didn’t know the future, would you still take that trade? Answer those questions and you'll start separating real analysis from self-defense. 👁 Look at the Chart Without Bias If you’re holding a position while analyzing, you’re probably just looking for evidence to stay in. Try this instead: Pick a timeframe where you have no position, and do a clean analysis. No hope. No fear. No money on the line. That’s when real analysis happens. 🔚 Final Note Real analysis hurts because it forces you to face mistakes. But it's also the path to real consistency. Next time you open a chart, ask yourself: “Am I seeking the truth or just a reason to hold on?” One moment of honesty can change your entire trading journey. ✨ Need a little love! We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛 Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Education
by MadWhale
Why You Still Lose Money Even With Perfect AnalysisYour setup was on point, your entry was clean, your stop-loss was tight. Everything looked perfect. And yet, you still lost. Maybe the real issue isn’t in your chart, maybe it’s in your head. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Ethereum: BINANCE:ETHUSDT is currently trading inside a well-defined parallel channel 📈. It is approaching a key daily support level that coincides with an important ascending trendline. A breakout above this channel could lead to a bullish move, targeting at least a 16% gain with a primary resistance zone near $2900 🚀. Monitoring how price reacts around this area will be critical for confirming the next leg up. Now , let's dive into the educational section, 🧠 Analysis Is Half the Game Having a clean technical analysis doesn’t guarantee anything if your behavior ruins it. Most traders change their minds mid-trade because of fear, hope, or noise from other sources. Market psychology doesn’t always respect your Fibonacci retracement. You might be right and still lose because you couldn’t hold on to the plan. 🕒 Don’t Enter Before the Market Does Timing is underrated. Many traders get in too early. Your analysis may predict a breakout, but price isn’t ready yet. Zoom out. A solid setup on the 1-hour chart might need confirmation from the 4-hour or daily. A great trade is not just where you enter, but when. 😤 It’s Not the Chart — It’s Your Mind Many times, the chart setup is perfect. But when price wobbles a bit, you lose confidence. Imagine this: a clean uptrend, higher highs forming, but a small retracement hits and you close the trade. Why? Fear. Not logic. You lost not because of analysis, but because you couldn’t handle being right under pressure. 📊 TradingView Tools: More Than Just Indicators If all you're using in TradingView are the typical RSI or MACD indicators, you're barely scratching the surface. Tools like Bar Replay can simulate real-time reactions to past price action, not just for backtesting, but for testing your discipline under real psychological pressure. Try this: pick a point where you lost money despite solid analysis. Use Bar Replay and “re-live” the chart without knowing what happens next. Was your entry early? Did you panic exit? Or did your stop-loss placement ignore structure zones? Also, use the Long/Short Position Tool to visually plan your risk/reward, and adjust your bias if the chart structure doesn’t validate it. For those wanting a deeper layer, add Volume Profile Fixed Range to identify value zones, where whales are active, and overlay it with your own trade setup. TradingView isn’t just a charting platform. It’s a behavioral mirror. You don’t just look at the chart, it shows how you act when money’s on the line. 🎯 Your Stop-Loss is for the Chart, Not Your Emotions If your stop-loss is placed based on what feels safe rather than key market structure, you’re not trading the chart. You’re managing anxiety. Let structure dictate where your risk lies, not your nerves. 😬 Not Executing = Not Trading If you don’t follow through with your own trade plan, your analysis is meaningless. Did you cut early just because a big red candle scared you? Or because someone tweeted a bearish take? That’s not discipline, that’s reactive trading. It has nothing to do with your original logic. 📉 Losses Are Part of Trading… But Not These Ones There’s a difference between calculated losses and emotional mistakes. The first is expected, even professional. The second will drain your account and confidence. Take losses when the plan fails, not when your emotions freak out. 🔍 Reverse-Engineer Your Entry Logic Next time you trade, take a screenshot and write down your full reasoning. Why this entry? What did you see? How will you exit? Later, go back and compare it to what actually happened. This habit alone can fix more issues than a dozen trading books. 💡 Perfect Analysis ≠ Profitable Trading Analysis opens the door, but execution and consistency keep you in the room. Most traders think the problem is their indicator, but it’s usually the part of themselves that doesn’t listen to the indicator at the critical moment. 🧠 The Power of “Logged Experience” The real difference between amateurs and veterans isn’t screen time. It’s tracked behavior. Use TradingView’s built-in Note feature, place icons or comments on every trade setup, and keep a record of your actual thought process. That feedback loop is gold. It builds self-awareness, the rarest edge in trading. 📺 Make It Visual to Make It Stick Don't rely solely on indicators. Use Chart Pattern Drawing Tools, head and shoulders, flags, triangles, and reinforce visual memory. Also, by managing Visibility Settings, you can keep your charts clean while viewing different structures across timeframes. The result? You start to see the story behind price, not just numbers. 🔚 Final Thought If you're still losing money with accurate analysis, maybe it’s time to analyze your reactions instead. TradingView gives you the tools, but the real upgrade is learning to trust your system under stress. ✨ Need a little love! We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛 Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Education
by MadWhale
19
Mastering Risk Management: The Trader’s Real EdgeYou’ve all heard it, “Cut your losses and let your winners run.” Simple words — but living by them is what separates survivors from blown accounts. Here’s some tips on how to approach risk management when trading: ☑️ Risk is always predefined: Before I click Buy or Sell, I know exactly how much I’m willing to lose. If you don’t define risk upfront, the market will do it for you. ☑️ Position sizing: Never risk more than 1–2% of your account per trade. Small losses mean you can keep taking high‑probability setups without fear. ☑️ Always use a stop‑loss: No stop? You’re not trading — you’re gambling. ☑️ Stop‑loss discipline: Place stops where the market proves you wrong — not where it “feels comfortable.” Then leave them alone. ☑️ Focus on risk/reward, not win rate: A 40% win rate can still be profitable if your average reward outweighs your risk. ☑️ Risk/reward ratio: Only take trades with at least a 2:1 or 3:1 potential. You don’t need to win every trade — your winners should pay for your losers (and more). Remember: “It’s not about being right all the time. It’s about not losing big when you’re wrong.” Risk management won’t make your trades perfect — but it will keep you trading tomorrow. And in this game, staying in the game is everything. 💭 How do you handle risk in your trading? Drop your strategy or tip in the comments — let’s share and learn together! 👇 Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, we appreciate the support! All the best for a good week ahead. Trade safe. BluetonaFX
Education
by BluetonaFX
Bollinger Bands: How to Stop Being a Slave to the Markets.Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis indicator widely used in trading to assess the volatility of a financial asset and anticipate price movements. Created in the 1980s by John Bollinger, they consist of three lines superimposed on the price chart: The middle band: a simple moving average, generally calculated over 20 periods. The upper band: the moving average to which two standard deviations are added. The lower band: the moving average to which two standard deviations are subtracted. These bands form a dynamic channel around the price, which widens during periods of high volatility and narrows when the market is calm. When a price touches or exceeds a band, it can signal an overbought or oversold situation, or a potential trend reversal or continuation, depending on the market context. What are Bollinger Bands used for? Measuring volatility: The wider the bands, the higher the volatility. Identify dynamic support and resistance zones. Detect market excesses: A price touching the upper or lower band may indicate a temporary excess. Anticipate reversals or consolidations: A tightening of the bands often heralds an upcoming burst of volatility. Why is the 2-hour time frame so widely used and relevant? The 2-hour (H2) time frame (TU) is particularly popular with many traders for several reasons: Perfect balance between noise and relevance: The H2 offers a compromise between very short time frames (often too noisy, generating many false signals) and long time frames (slower to react). This allows you to capture significant movements without being overwhelmed by minor fluctuations. Suitable for swing trading and intraday trading: This TU allows you to hold a position for several hours or days, while maintaining good responsiveness to take advantage of intermediate trends. Clearer reading of chart patterns: Technical patterns (triangles, double tops, Wolfe waves, etc.) are often clearer and more reliable on H2 than on shorter time frames, making decision-making easier. Less stress, better time management: On H2, there's no need to constantly monitor screens. Monitoring every two hours is sufficient, which is ideal for active traders who don't want to be slaves to the market. Statistical relevance: Numerous backtests show that technical signals (such as those from Bollinger Bands) are more robust and less prone to false signals on this intermediate time frame. In summary, the 2-hour time frame is often considered "amazing" because it combines the precision of intraday trading with the reliability of swing trading, thus providing superior signals for most technical strategies, particularly those using Bollinger Bands. To summarize Bollinger Bands measure volatility and help identify overbought/oversold areas or potential reversals. The 2-hour timeframe is highly valued because it filters out market noise while remaining sufficiently responsive, making it particularly useful for technical analysis and trading decision-making.
CAPITALCOM:US100Education
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
Rain or Ruin? Analyzing Wheat Prices During Precip Extremes1. Introduction: When Rain Means Risk for Wheat Traders Rain is life for wheat crops—until it isn’t. In the world of agriculture, water is essential, but extremes in precipitation can cause just as much harm as droughts. For traders in the wheat futures market, understanding this relationship between rainfall and price action is not just useful—it’s essential. Wheat is a crop with a long growth cycle, grown across diverse geographies like the U.S. Plains, the Canadian Prairies, Russia, and Ukraine. Each region has its own precipitation rhythm, and any disruption can ripple through the global supply chain. The question is: can weather signals—especially rainfall—be used to predict market behavior? This article dives into that question using a data-driven lens. We categorized precipitation data and measured how wheat futures returns responded to different rainfall environments. The results? Revealing, and at times, counterintuitive. 2. The Role of Rainfall in Wheat Production Wheat, especially spring and winter varieties, is particularly sensitive to soil moisture levels at key phases like germination, tillering, and heading. Too little rain in early development and the crop can fail to establish. Too much rain close to harvest? Risk of disease, sprouting, and quality degradation. Traders have long known that unexpected wet or dry weeks can trigger speculative surges or hedging activity. But how do these events influence actual futures returns? Before answering that, we need to translate rain into something traders can use: categories based on historical norms. 3. Methodology: Categorizing Rainfall and Measuring Market Response To understand how wheat prices respond to different levels of rainfall, we analyzed weekly precipitation data across global wheat-producing regions. We normalized the data using percentiles: Low Precipitation: Below the 25th percentile Normal Precipitation: Between the 25th and 75th percentiles High Precipitation: Above the 75th percentile We then matched this categorized weather data with weekly returns from wheat futures (symbol: ZW) to explore if price behavior systematically varied depending on how wet or dry a week had been. To test significance, we used a simple t-test comparing the mean returns of low-precip and high-precip weeks. The p-value (6.995E-06) revealed a compelling result: yes, there is a statistically significant difference. 4. Results: High Rainfall, Higher Price Volatility The data confirms that weeks with extreme rainfall—especially those with high precipitation—often align with more volatile wheat price movements. But here’s the twist: while low-precip weeks didn’t consistently show bullish returns, high-precip weeks correlated with negative or erratic returns. That makes sense when you think about harvest delays, rot, and declining grain quality. Traders watching forecasts for excessive rainfall should consider the implications for grain availability and price stabilization mechanisms. This is where speculative plays or hedging via options and standard or micro futures contracts can become especially useful. 5. Interpreting the Volatility: Why the Market Reacts to Rain Why does excessive rain lead to such uneven price behavior? The answer lies in uncertainty. Heavy rainfall often introduces multiple variables into the equation: planting delays, logistical bottlenecks, and downgraded wheat quality due to fungal infections. For example, a wet harvest can reduce protein content, pushing millers to seek alternatives—altering both demand and supply expectations simultaneously. This dual-sided pressure—reduced high-quality yield and uncertain export capability—tends to shake market confidence. Traders respond not just to the supply data but also to how much trust they place in the supply pipeline itself. 6. Futures Contracts: Navigating Risk with Position Size Control Traders looking to participate in wheat price action have two main CME-listed options: Standard Wheat Futures (ZW) Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Tick Size: 1/4 cent per bushel (0.0025) has a $12.50 per tick impact Margin Requirement: Approx. $1,700 (subject to change) Micro Wheat Futures (MZW) Contract Size: 500 bushels (1/10th the size of the standard contract) Tick Size: 0.0050 per bushel has a $2.50 per tick impact Margin Requirement: Approx. $170 (subject to change) Micro contracts like MZW offer a lower-cost, lower-risk way to trade wheat volatility—perfect for sizing into weather-related trades with precision or managing risk in a more granular fashion. Many traders use these contracts to test strategies during seasonal transitions or while responding to forecast-driven setups. 7. Visual Evidence: Price Behavior by Precipitation Category To visually represent our findings, we used box plots to show wheat weekly returns grouped by precipitation category: The shape of these distributions is revealing. High-precipitation weeks not only show lower average returns but also a wider range of possible outcomes—underscoring the role that rainfall extremes play in price volatility rather than just directional bias. We are also complementing this visual with a weather map that shows real-time precipitation patterns in major wheat-growing regions. This could help traders align weather anomalies with trading opportunities. 8. Final Thoughts: The Forecast Beyond Forecasts Precipitation isn’t just an agricultural concern—it’s a market catalyst. Our analysis shows that rainfall extremes, particularly heavy rain, create meaningful signals for wheat traders. The price response is less about direction and more about uncertainty and volatility, which is equally important when structuring trades. If you’re serious about trading wheat futures, don’t just watch the charts—watch the clouds. This article is one piece in our broader series on how weather influences ag futures. Stay tuned for the next one, where we continue to decode the atmosphere’s impact on the markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZW1!Education
by traddictiv
Decisive Week: Duties, Oil and Flight from the Dollar Hello, I am Forex trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the week full of tensions and opportunities in global currency markets. The new tariff threats from the United States, the strategic moves of OPEC + and the growing instability in the British government bond market are shaking up the entire Forex landscape, with direct implications on USD, AUD, CAD, GBP and JPY. I thank in advance the Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in the creation of this article. The most explosive news concerns the possible imposition of new duties by the United States, with a deadline set for July 9. The American administration, according to Reuters sources, is ready to activate tariffs of up to 70% on some categories of strategic imports if new bilateral agreements are not signed by the end of the month. The market has reacted cautiously, but signs of systemic risk are starting to filter through: US futures are falling, capital is moving into safe havens, and the dollar is starting to lose ground structurally. The decline in oil has added further pressure. OPEC+ announced the start of an increase in production from August, with about 550 thousand barrels per day more than the current level. This has hit Brent and WTI hard, which are now both below $68. Currencies that are highly correlated to commodities, such as CAD and NOK, are weakening, especially in the absence of a monetary response from their respective central banks. Meanwhile, the UK is facing a delicate moment. Yields on 10-year gilts have risen to their highest since April, with a sell-off that has forced the Bank of England to review the pace of its asset disposal. The instability of the British debt is putting pressure on the pound, already tested by inflation that is struggling to recover and a stagnant housing market. The GBP/USD pair remains extremely volatile, while EUR/GBP is moving sideways waiting for a clearer direction. But the star of the week is Australia. The AUD has scored the eighth consecutive week of gains, taking advantage of both the weakness of the dollar and the expectations of a more gradual future rate cut by the RBA. The AUD/USD cross has broken the highs of November 2024 and is now targeting levels of 0.67-0.68. The same goes for NZD/USD, which is also in a phase of bullish consolidation. The US dollar, on the other hand, has recorded its worst start to the year since 1973: a combination of political uncertainty, fiscal instability and falling confidence is eroding global demand for the USD, pushing many managers to diversify into emerging or commodity-linked currencies. Finally, the Federal Reserve is taking its time. Powell stated that the path of rates will be closely linked to the evolution of trade tensions. The Fed, therefore, appears more wait-and-see than expected, postponing a possible cut to the third quarter. This leaves the dollar exposed to downward pressure, especially if inflation were to slow further in the meantime. In summary, this week offers extremely interesting scenarios for Forex traders. Institutional flows seem to favor alternative currencies to the dollar, while sentiment remains fragile on GBP and CAD. AUD, NZD and JPY emerge as potential winners, at least until new macro developments or significant technical breaks. The watchword is: selection. With volatility on the rise and the geopolitical context rapidly evolving, only those who know how to read the movements of central banks and institutions in advance will be able to take full advantage of the opportunities offered by the markets.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
4-Dimensional Investing: Evolving Beyond News, Charts, and Math 📚 4-Dimensional Investing: Evolving Beyond News, Charts, and Math Most people start learning about stocks in a 1-dimensional way — by following the news. But news is noisy. Some is fake, some is "buy the rumor, sell the fact", and sometimes the price moves the opposite of what the news suggests. So, many give up on news and turn to... 📊 2D: Technical Analysis (TA) TA has been around since the 1980s, when personal computers went mainstream. It's visual and intuitive — charts, lines, indicators. You see price action unfold on-screen and feel like you're deciphering the market in real time. Some traders even build entire systems off indicators like RSI, MACD, or moving averages. They think: "Aha! The chart did this, so next time I’ll do that." But often, "next time" doesn't work the same. TA is fundamentally historical — it's about pattern recognition and hoping history repeats. It’s like counting the color of every fallen leaf, trying to predict the next one. We needed something better. So the institutions turned to… 🧠 3D: Quantitative Modeling Enter the quants — physicists, mathematicians, engineers. They model the markets like rocket science using multi-dimensional equations. Think LTCM (Long-Term Capital Management), led by Nobel Prize winners. Quant models are more sophisticated than charts — they simulate human behavior with precision. But there's a problem: humans change. A model may work… until people start behaving differently. Markets are not just math. They’re psychology, emotion, fear, greed. Which brings us to the new frontier… 🤖 4D: AI-Powered, Language-Driven Investing This is where LLMs (Large Language Models) enter the game. People often ask me: “Why use LLMs for trading? Why not traditional ML like LSTM?” Here’s my answer: Markets are made of humans, and humans communicate through language. Not numbers. Not charts. Not just price. Now, with LLMs, we can: Analyze any human-created document (news, filings, tweets, speeches) Understand sentiment in real context Capture nuance — the stuff traditional models miss LLMs don’t just convert text to numbers. They learn meaning. This adds a fourth dimension to our trading models: language + reasoning + context + behavior. Underneath, it’s still powered by classic ML and deep learning. But now the machine can think more like a human — with intuition, memory, and adaptability. --- 🌐 The Future Is 4D Investing We're not saying this is the final answer to markets. But it’s a major leap forward. Trading is one of the hardest prediction problems in the world. And now we have a tool that bridges the gap between math and human behavior. Welcome to the era of 4D investing — Where the future of trading is built with language, context, and AI. Let’s explore it together in ⁠📖qs-academy. 🚀
NYSE:BEEducation
by quantsignals
9 Essential TIPS For Newbie Traders (Learn from my Mistakes!) In the today's article, I will reveal trading secrets I wish I knew when I started trading. 1️⃣ Forget about becoming a pro quickly Most of the traders believe, that you can learn how to trade easily and that it takes a very short period of time in order to master a profitable trading strategy. The truth is, however, that trading is a long journey. I spent more than 3 years, trying different strategies and looking for a profitable technique to trade. Once I found that, it took more than a year to polish a trading strategy and to learn how to apply that properly. Be prepared to spend YEARS before you find a way to trade profitably. 2️⃣ Focus on One Strategy While you are learning how to trade you will try different techniques, tools and strategies. And the thing is that newbies are trying multiple things simultaneously. The more strategies you try at once, the more setups you have on your chart. The more setups you have on your chart, the more complex and difficult is your trading. Remember that in this game, your attention is the key. You should meticulously study each and every trading setup. For that reason, I highly recommend you to focus on one strategy, one approach, one technique. Test it, try it and look for a new one only when you realize that it doesn't work. Here is the example how the same price chart can provide absolutely different trading opportunities depending on a trading strategy. Price action pattern trader would recognize a lot of a patterns, while indicator based trader could spot absolutely different bullish and bearish signals. Now, try to imagine how hard it would be to follow both strategies simultaneously. 3️⃣ Start with small capital that you can afford to lose You will lose your first trading deposit and, probably, the second one and potentially the third one as well. Losses are the only way to learn real trading. While you are on a demo account, you feel like a king, but once you start risking your savings, the perspective completely changes . For that reason, make sure that you trade with an account that you can afford to lose. The fact of blowing such an account should be unpleasant, but that should not affect your daily life. 4️⃣ Use stop loss I am doing trading coaching for more than 4 years. What pisses me off is that the main reason of the substantial losses of my mentees is the absence of stop loss. Why can it be if naturally everyone: from your broker to Instagram trading gurus repeat that day after day. Set stop loss, know in advance how much you risk per trade, and know the exact level on a price chart where you become wrong. Imagine what could be your loss, if you shorted USDJPY and hold the trade while the market kept going against you. 5️⃣ Forget about getting rich quick That is the iconic fallacy. I believe that around 90% of people who come in this game want to get rich quick , want easy money. And no surprise, when I share a trading setup in my free telegram channel, and it loses I receive dozens of messages that I am a scammer. People truly believe that professional trading implies 100% win rate and quick and easy money. The truth is, traders, that trading is a very tough game. And with a good trading strategy, you have just a little statistical edge that will give you the profits that would slightly overcome your losses. 6️⃣ Train your eyes Professional trading implies pattern recognition: it can be some technical indicators pattern, the price action or candlestick formation, etc. Your main goal as a trader is to learn to identify these patterns. Pattern recognition is a hard skill to acquire. You should spend dozens of hours in front of the screen in order to train your eyes to identify certain patterns. Here is how many patterns you would spot on GBPUSD chart, paying close attention. 7️⃣ Track and analyze your trades Study all the trades that you take, especially the losing ones. Look for mistakes, look for the reasons why a certain setup played out and why a certain one didn't. Journal your trades and make notes. 8️⃣ Don't use technical indicators Newbies believe that technical indicators should do the work for them. They are constantly looking for one or a bunch that will accurately show where the market will go. However, I always say to my mentees that technical indicators make the chart messy and distract. If you just started trading, focus on a naked chart, learn to analyze the market trend, key levels, classic price action patterns. Learn to make accurate predictions relying on a price chart alone. Only then add some technical indicators on your chart. They won't do the work for you, but will help you to slightly increase the accuracy of a certain setup. Above is the classic chart of a newbie trader. A lot of indicators and a complete mess The same chart would look much better without technical indicators. 9️⃣ Find a Mentor There are hundreds of trading mentors on Instagram, YouTube, TradingView. Find the one with a trading style that you like. Follow him, learn from his trading experience, listen to his trading recommendations. 11 years ago I found a guy on YouTube, his name was Jason. I really liked his free teachings, and they were meaningful to me. I decided to purchase his premium coaching program. It was 200$ monthly - a huge amount of money for me at that time. However, with his knowledge I saved a lot, I learned a lot of profitable techniques and tricks that helped me to become a professional forex trader. Of course, this list could be much bigger. The more I think about different subjects in trading, the more important tips come to my mind. However, I believe that the tips above are essential and I truly wish I knew all that before I started. I hope that info will help you in your trading journey! Good luck to you. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
All Binance Coins Watchlist 2025 JULY If you want to create a full list of all coins from the exchange you use, you can: 1. Go to Screeners 2. Set these filters: a. Exchange (eg. Binance) b. Quote currency - USDT c. Symbol type - Perpetual 3. Keep Scrolling till the end of the list so that all coins are populated. There should be about 400+ coins. 4. Select one of the coins, then click Ctrl A to select all. 5. Right click > Add to an existing Watchlist or Create a new watchlist. Here's my list i created on 4th July 2025. You can import it if you want. www.tradingview.com
Education
by vig_ilan
1
My Ideal Elliott Wave Entry ModelThe IMSETT 3/C Entry Model. Every trader wants to catch the big moves the ones that pay quickly and decisively. In Elliott Wave, those moves often come during Wave 3. It's the strongest part of the trend, and when you're positioned early, the risk-to-reward is unmatched. But not every opportunity hands you a clean Wave 3 on a silver platter. Sometimes you’re looking at a Wave C instead. That’s where the 3/C Entry Model comes in. It’s designed to get you aligned with high-conviction moves—whether the market is in a trend or a zig zag. Here’s the edge: both Wave 3 and Wave C often start the same way—a strong, motive push off an AOI (area of interest), followed by a retracement. That shared structure gives us an anchor. Whether we’re labeling it a 3 or a C doesn’t change the fact that the initial impulse gives us clarity, direction, and a place to manage risk. That’s what the IMSETT Model is built around: Identify Motive Scout Entry Plan Track Trade Each step is focused, actionable, and repeatable. You're not trying to outguess the market—you’re reacting to structure, preparing for common behavior, and executing with intent. I do have a video with a walk through. This just the way I look for clarity in setups. As with everything in trading, nothing will work every time so do your own research this is not financial advice. Cheers! Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
Education
by CryptoKnee
How to Trade the Forex Market on Memorial & Independence days?Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) market on major U.S. holidays like Memorial Day (May 29th) and Independence Day (July 4th) presents a unique set of challenges and requires a strategic shift from typical trading days. While the global Forex market remains technically open 24/5, the closure of U.S. banks and financial institutions leads to significantly reduced liquidity and trading volume, altering the market landscape. Here’s a comprehensive guide on how to approach Forex trading on these holidays: Understanding the Market Conditions: The "Quiet" Danger The primary characteristic of Forex trading on U.S. holidays is a sharp drop in liquidity, especially in currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar (USD). With American traders and institutions away from their desks, the volume of transactions plummets. This "quiet" market environment can be deceptive and carries specific risks: Wider Spreads: With fewer market participants, the difference between the bid and ask prices for currency pairs tends to increase. This makes it more expensive to enter and exit trades, eating into potential profits. Increased Volatility and Spikes: Don't mistake low volume for a flat market. With a thin order book, even moderately sized orders can cause sharp, sudden price movements or "spikes." These moves can be unpredictable and may not follow typical technical patterns. Price Gaps and Slippage: The reduced liquidity can lead to price gaps, where the market jumps from one price to another without trading at the levels in between. This increases the risk of slippage, where your order is executed at a less favorable price than intended. Ineffectiveness of Some Strategies: Strategies that rely on high volume and momentum, such as breakout trading, are more likely to fail. A perceived breakout may lack the follow-through to become a sustained trend. Strategic Approaches for Trading on Memorial Day and July 4th Given the unique market conditions, traders should adopt a cautious and well-considered approach. Here are several strategies to consider: 1. The Prudent Approach: Step Aside For many traders, particularly novices, the most sensible strategy is to avoid trading altogether on these holidays. The increased risks and unpredictable market behavior can easily lead to unnecessary losses. Consider these days as an opportunity to study the markets, refine your overall trading plan, or simply take a break. 2. Trade with Reduced Size and Realistic Expectations If you do choose to trade, it is crucial to adjust your risk management: Lower Your Position Sizes: This is the most critical adjustment. Trading with smaller lots will mitigate the potential impact of sudden price spikes and wider spreads. Adjust Profit Targets and Stop-Losses: Be realistic about potential gains. The market may not have the momentum for large moves. Consider setting smaller profit targets. At the same time, be mindful that tighter stop-losses can be easily triggered by short-term volatility. 3. Focus on Non-USD Currency Pairs Since the holidays are U.S.-based, currency pairs that do not involve the U.S. dollar may be less affected, although a general decrease in global liquidity is still expected. Cross-currency pairs such as EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, or AUD/NZD might exhibit more "normal" behavior than majors like EUR/USD or USD/JPY. However, remain vigilant for lower-than-usual volume across the board. 4. Employ Range-Bound Strategies In low-liquidity environments, currencies often trade within a defined range. Strategies that capitalize on this behavior can be more effective than trend-following approaches. Look for well-established support and resistance levels and consider trading the bounces off these levels. 5. Be Wary of News from Other Regions While the U.S. market is quiet, significant economic data or geopolitical news from other regions (Europe, Asia) can still impact the market. With low liquidity, the reaction to such news can be exaggerated. Stay informed about the global economic calendar. A Day-by-Day Look Memorial Day (Last Monday of May): This is a major U.S. holiday, and its impact will be felt throughout the 24-hour trading period. Expect very thin liquidity during the Asian and European sessions, which will worsen significantly during what would typically be the busy New York session. Independence Day (July 4th): The impact of July 4th can sometimes extend beyond the day itself. Often, the trading day before (July 3rd) will also see reduced volume as traders close positions ahead of the holiday. On July 4th, expect market conditions similar to Memorial Day, with a significant drop in activity and the associated risks. In conclusion, while the allure of a 24-hour market is a key feature of Forex, wisdom lies in recognizing when not to trade with your usual strategy and size. Approaching U.S. holidays like Memorial Day and Independence Day with caution, a revised strategy, and a keen awareness of the risks is paramount for preserving your trading capital. For most, these are days best spent on the sidelines. Navid Jafarian
Education
by Navid_Jafarian
17
War news are actually good news for Crypto & GoldI Love Global Peace and hope all Wars end soon. Here are my thoughts about Crypto when war Starts between two countries or more. i think After wars so many reasons will help Crypto to see gain specially for Bitcoin which is the King of this market. Some of the major Reasons in my view are: A. Countries currency or Markets start to fall : Usually with starting of war, we have two countries that are involved and due to negative effects of war on different Economic parameters cause weaker country or both currencies lose the power of Their currencies and it start To dump. weak countries Bank can get hacked or worst scenario a countries currency can get 0 by the time. most of the times Their stock markets also Face with huge losses. B. People start to Buy more Gold or Bitcoin and ... with things mentioned above and other reasons their People start to Buy more Crypto usually and Metals like Gold. C. People start to migrate to other countries with their Crypto Wallets Only Some start to leave their countries and Sell their Cars homes and ... and turn them to BTC or... and transfer their money and life to a peaceful country. D. Spies and bribery gets more in those countries which all is done with Crypto usually Corruption & Spy jobs and ... increases in those countries usually and the money on this Fields usually transfer Via Crypto or Gold and Silver which is harder to track. And with these reasons which mentioned Above usually in the past all the Attention comes to Metal like Gold and the Value of it increase in Wars, but now Days Bitcoin(&Crypto Tokens) also gets more value and attention in war in my personal View and See gain in price too. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Education
by MMBTtrader
22
#AN015: TRUMP-PUTIN Phone Call and July 4th, Markets Closed In an unexpected phone call on the sidelines of the American Independence Day, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump – in the midst of the campaign for his potential re-election – had a confidential conversation that quickly captured the attention of global markets, even on a day when Wall Street was closed. Hello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the latest news of these hours. I would like to thank in advance our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in creating this article. 📉 Wall Street closed, but Forex is always open While the US stock markets remain closed for the July 4th holiday, the currency market – by its nature decentralized and global – never stops completely. And it is precisely in these moments of low liquidity that geopolitical moves can have an amplified impact. ☎️ What did Putin and Trump say to each other? Official sources speak of a “cordial discussion” on global security issues, Ukraine, and the future of US-Russia energy relations. However, according to leaks from Moscow, Putin has expressed openness to a new energy negotiation in the event of Trump’s return to the White House. Translated into Forex language? This could mean: Lower geopolitical risk on USD in the long term (Trump is seen as more in favor of dialogue with Moscow) Pressure on Euro if negotiations with Russia are diverted to a Washington-Moscow axis Temporary strength of RUB in case of glimmers of easing of energy sanctions 📊 Impact on key currency crosses Comparing the post-news movements on some crosses: USD/RUB: flat for now, but ready to jump over the weekend if confirmations arrive EUR/USD: latent weakness, also due to the decline in ISM and the resilience of European inflation USD/JPY: stable, but with pro-dollar sentiment in the background (Trump is perceived as economically dovish) ⏱️ What to expect in the next 24 hours? With liquidity recovering already since tonight (Tokyo), markets could start to price in the geopolitical narrative of Trump's return. This scenario favors: USD slightly stronger in the short term Watch out for false breakouts on low volatility (typical of July 4th)
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Trending Tokens Are Traps they Destroy your Portfolios🚨 Why Everyone Falls for Trending Projects That End in Disaster Have you ever bought a token just because everyone was talking about it? And the moment you jumped in, it started crashing? This isn’t a rare story; it’s a repeating trap. But why does our brain love buying at the worst possible moment? Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Dogecoin: BINANCE:DOGEUSDT is currently forming a tight price structure, resembling a compressed spring just below a key daily resistance and trendline. A clean breakout above this area, supported by volume, could trigger a strong bullish continuation, with a projected upside of approximately 30 percent toward the 0.21 level. Traders should monitor this setup closely for confirmation before entering any positions. 📈🐶 Now , let's dive into the educational section, 💸 Trend Equals Triggering Your Greed Trending coins don’t just pump prices; they pump emotions. One word: FOMO. Fear of missing out makes us ditch logic, ignore risk, and buy because it feels like everyone else is making money. That’s when the trap is set. 🧠 The Market Forgets, But You Shouldn’t The crypto space is littered with the graves of hyped-up tokens. The cycle is always the same: quick pump, viral noise, massive retail entry, then a violent crash. The names may change, but the pattern doesn’t. 📊 Practical TradingView Tools to Spot Sketchy Trends Before you click that “Buy” button just because something is trending, take a breath and open your charting tools. Here's a shortlist of powerful features you can use on TradingView that’ll help you filter out dangerous pump tokens: Volume Profile: Shows where real smart money sits. If most volume spikes near the top, chances are whales are exiting. RSI (14) : If RSI is above 70 and climbing with no pullback, odds are you're catching it too late. Anchored VWAP: Anchor it at the start of the trend and see how far price has stretched from rational levels. Stochastic RSI: Sharp crosses in overbought zones equal major risk signals. Make it a habit to cross-check multiple timeframes with these tools. Blindly following trends without analysis? That’s how portfolios get burned. 🧪 Pre-Entry Checklist That Could Save You If something feels “too hot to miss,” ask yourself: Is the chart readable, or just a straight line up? Are there healthy pullbacks or just blind momentum? Is volume spiking only at the top? Does the project show signs of organic market interest? Do your TradingView tools confirm a smart entry? Stick to this list, and you’ll avoid being just another exit-liquidity victim. 🕵️ Spotting Fake Pumps Before It’s Too Late Here are the red flags no one talks about but every rug has them: Massive vertical candles in low timeframes Chaotic candlestick structures with no rhythm Sharp volatility without any legit updates Sudden spikes in follower hype and buzz Real analysts don’t get excited when everyone else is; they start questioning why. 💥 Even Pro Traders Get Caught Yes, even experienced traders can fall for a perfectly staged hype cycle. Why? Because human brains are wired to chase the crowd. That’s why having a pre-built system is critical. If you rely on gut feelings in a FOMO storm, you’re gambling. ✨ Need a little love! We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛 Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Education
by MadWhale
7
From Congestion to Collapse: Understanding Distribution and H&S A Simple Lesson: How to Identify Congestion Zones in the Market — Schabacker’s Approach and the Head and Shoulders Pattern ⸻ 👤 Who Was Schabacker? 🔹 Richard Schabacker was one of the pioneers who authored seminal works on technical analysis. 🔹 He lived over 90 years ago and served as Editor-in-Chief of Financial World magazine. 🔹 His most notable book is: Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits 🔹 Published around 1932 in the United States. 🔹 Schabacker is often considered the “grandfather” of technical analysis, and much of the methodology traders use today can be traced back to his insights. ⸻ 🟢 What Did He Teach? 🔹 Schabacker introduced a critical concept: ✅ The Congestion Zone 🌟 What Does It Mean? When the market makes a strong move—either a sharp rally or a steep decline—price often becomes trapped in a range: • Buyers at higher levels wait for further gains. • Sellers at lower levels expect more downside. But in reality, retail traders aren’t moving the market. Large institutions and funds—the so-called smart money—are in control. 👈 When these big players want to exit positions, they avoid selling everything at once to prevent a sudden collapse in price and to avoid revealing their hand. ✅ Their Playbook: • Keep price contained within a narrow band between support and resistance. • Gradually increase volume over time. • Attract new buyers who believe the trend is still intact. • Quietly distribute their holdings without alarming the market. 🌟 Why Do They Do This? If they were to dump all at once: • Price would drop rapidly. • Everyone would realize a large seller was active. • Institutions would get stuck, unable to exit at favorable prices. 🔻 So They Create Congestion and Distribution: 1️⃣ Sell discreetly over time. 2️⃣ Maintain the illusion that the trend is healthy. 3️⃣ Trap latecomers who buy into the range. ⸻ 🟢 How Do You Recognize This on a Chart? 🎯 A Simple Example: • Price climbs steadily from 3,000 to 3,300. • Suddenly, it surges to 3,450. ✅ Most traders think the rally will continue. 🌟 What happens next: • Price stalls between 3,380 and 3,450. • Numerous candles form in this area. • Volume remains elevated. 🔥 Inside this range: 1️⃣ Institutions sell into every upward move. 2️⃣ Early buyers remain committed, hoping for new highs. 3️⃣ New participants enter, unaware of the distribution. 🔻 What Do You See? • Repeated candles oscillating within the same band. • Failed breakouts above resistance. • Sustained high volume. ✅ This is the classic Congestion Zone. ⸻ 💡 How Can You Tell If It’s Distribution, Not Accumulation? • Persistent high volume indicates steady selling. • Price struggles to make fresh highs. • Long upper wicks signal selling pressure. • A Head and Shoulders pattern may start forming. ⸻ 🎯 What Happens After Congestion? • Institutions complete their distribution. ✅ Price breaks sharply below the range. ✅ The market drops quickly. ✅ Late buyers are forced to sell at losses. ⸻ 🟢 Practical Illustration: Visualize the range like this: | | | The Range | | | 3380 ————> Resistance | Multiple Candles | | Multiple Candles | | Multiple Candles | 3300 ————> Support and Neckline ✅ If price breaks below 3,300 on heavy volume: • The distribution is complete. • Price declines rapidly. ⸻ 📌 Key Takeaway: After any strong move, expect congestion as large players exit. Once they’re done, the trend often reverses. ⸻ 🎯 Quick Tips: ✅ Never rush to buy inside congestion after a big rally. ✅ Watch volume—if it’s high, it’s likely distribution. ✅ Wait for a clear breakdown before shorting. ✅ Your target should at least match the size of the preceding move. ⸻ 🔥 Let’s Cover the Head and Shoulders Pattern: ✅ What Is It? A reversal pattern appearing after a strong uptrend, signaling the end of bullish momentum. ⸻ ✅ Pattern Components: 1️⃣ Left Shoulder: • Price makes a high. • Pulls back. 2️⃣ Head: • Rallies to a higher high. • Declines again. 3️⃣ Right Shoulder: • Attempts to rise but fails to exceed the head’s high. 4️⃣ Neckline: • Connects the lows between the shoulders and the head. 🔻 When the Neckline Breaks Down: It’s a strong sell signal. The market often drops decisively. ⸻ 💡 Example in Numbers: • Price moves from 3,200: 1️⃣ Up to 3,350 (Left Shoulder) 2️⃣ Down to 3,300 3️⃣ Up to 3,400 (Head) 4️⃣ Down to 3,300 5️⃣ Up to 3,350 (Right Shoulder) 6️⃣ Down to 3,300 ✅ If price closes below 3,300 on strong volume, the pattern is confirmed. 🎯 Target Calculation: • Head = 3,400 • Neckline = 3,300 • Distance = 100 points • Target = 3,200 ⸻ 🟢 How To Trade It: 1️⃣ Don’t preemptively sell during the right shoulder. 2️⃣ Wait for a confirmed breakdown. 3️⃣ Enter a short position targeting 3,200. 4️⃣ Set your stop loss above the right shoulder. ⸻ 🟢 Final Advice: ✅ The Head and Shoulders is powerful if confirmed by volume. ✅ Always wait for the neckline break—otherwise, it could be a false signal. ✅ Keep monitoring volume for confirmation. ⸻ 🔥 Be disciplined in your analysis and decisive in your execution. 🔥 As Warren Buffett said: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” ⸻ If you found this valuable, let me know—I’d be glad to prepare more lessons. 🌟
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Is Bitcoin Still a Hedge? What the Iran Israel Conflict RevealsAs geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel escalates, markets are once again gripped by fear. Oil prices have surged, gold has rallied, and investors are rebalancing portfolios in anticipation of further instability. Amidst this backdrop, Bitcoin's behavior is raising fresh questions about its role as a geopolitical hedge. Bitcoin’s Initial Reaction: A Spike and a Slip When the first reports of conflict broke, Bitcoin spiked alongside gold. Many hailed this as proof that BTC was becoming a reliable safe haven. However, just days later, prices retraced by roughly 6 to 7 percent as volatility intensified. As usual, Bitcoin is still highly sentiment driven. While gold held its gains, BTC mirrored risk on assets with intraday volatility, undermining its hedge narrative. BTC vs. Traditional Safe Havens Let’s compare Bitcoin’s performance to: • Gold: Continued upward trend, record ETF inflows • Oil: Strong rally due to supply shock fears • USD: Moderate gains as a traditional reserve asset Bitcoin’s pullback during peak uncertainty suggests that in times of extreme stress, traditional assets still dominate flight to safety behavior. What the On Chain Data Shows Interestingly, on chain activity also hints at caution. Exchange inflows increased slightly after the conflict news, suggesting profit taking or reduced conviction among holders. Moreover, stablecoin volume spiked in Middle Eastern regions — a signal that users may prefer capital preservation over speculation during geopolitical risk. The Takeaway: Not There Yet Bitcoin is maturing, and its response to global events is evolving. But this conflict reveals it is not yet a full fledged hedge like gold or the dollar. For investors, the lesson is clear: BTC can act as a partial hedge in medium term macro trends, but during sharp geopolitical escalations, traditional assets still lead. What Do You Think? Is Bitcoin still on track to become a true safe haven asset? Or will it remain a risk sensitive speculative instrument?
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Farzadvajihi
1
You trade. You learn. You test. But results still slip. Why? Sometimes you feel like you know it all. You've tried dozens of strategies. Studied with the best. But in your head — there’s no clarity, in your trades — chaos, and in the end — you’re stuck in the same place. I’ve been there too. If this sounds familiar — keep reading. Every day, thousands of traders enter the market and do everything "by the book": they open their terminal, draw levels, learn from the pros, read the analysis. Yet years later, they’re still in the same spot. Their results are random, unstable, or negative. Why? 🔹 Not because you didn’t study enough. 🔹 Not because you can’t read a chart. 💡 Most likely, your system isn’t fully built — or your goal is still unclear. A goal is not a wish. "I want to make money" is not a goal. A real goal sounds like: to consistently earn $1,000 a month, spending 3 hours a day on trading. Or: to live off trading income and leave my job. Different goals require different systems: daily routines, trade evaluation criteria, analysis frequency, and risk approaches. Here are some examples of goals and the systems they require: Goal: Consistent side income $1,000 a month with 3 hours of trading a day → You need a system with a clear schedule, ready-made analysis templates, minimal manual effort, asset/time priorities, clear trade filters, trade logging, and weekly/monthly feedback loops (what works, what doesn’t). Goal: Passive income through investments (e.g. 15% annual return on capital) → You need a system that includes regular fundamental analysis, long-term trend evaluation, clear rules for portfolio formation and rebalancing, risk limits per asset, profit/loss realization strategies, trade logging, and quarterly feedback reviews. Goal: Full-time trading income, consistently earning $10,000 per month → You need a system with strict risk control, a daily trading rhythm, emotional stability support, trade tracking, and daily/weekly feedback (what’s working, what’s not). What happens without a goal and system? The trader opens a chart and starts "looking for an opportunity." Today it’s scalping, tomorrow swing, the next day — "I’m just observing." 📉 They don’t know what to focus on. 📉 They lose concentration. 📉 They jump into trades because "something must be done." 📉 They burn out. Because there’s no sense of progress. Without a goal, you can’t build the system you need. A goal sets the direction and evaluation criteria. Without a system, you can’t reach the goal: you might have knowledge, actions, and effort — but they don’t add up to results. Just noise, fatigue, and the feeling of being out of sync with the market. A system is what connects your goal and actions. It gives you stability, filters out distractions, keeps you focused, and reduces impulsive behavior. If this feels familiar — it’s a signal. Your system and goal need an upgrade. Many start with a random mix of actions hoping for results. Few take the step toward clarifying their goal and building their system. You can be one of them — if you have a map and a direction. Everything starts with a clear personal goal — not a generic one, but truly yours. You can use 3 practices to help you: Goal — what you truly want from trading, specifically in numbers and timelines. Sub-goals — how to break the path into clear steps based on your resources. Hypothesis — what exactly you’re testing right now to stay focused. Each of these is a practical step that brings clarity and direction. 📌 Define your goal — and keep it. It’s your starting point. It marks the transition from reactive trader to conscious professional. See you in Part Two — where we’ll build the system that brings you to that goal. Let your chosen goal inspire and support you on the journey. Value every step and your own effort. Take care — and trust your path.
Education
by AlexeyWolf
#AN014: Ursula von der Leyen No Confidence Motion, Market Crisis Hello, I am Andrea Russo, a Forex trader and today I want to focus on an explosive news that has hit Brussels in the last 24 hours: the motion of no confidence against the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. I thank in advance the Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in carrying out this analysis. The fact: Motion of No Confidence in the European Parliament On July 1st, several MEPs from both conservative right and far left groups formally presented a motion of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen, accusing her of: Non-transparent agreements with Emmanuel Macron, Opaque management of the new “Pact for Europe”, Conditioning of key appointments within the Commission and the Council and above all the violation of the democratic principle of balance of powers. Although the motion does not seem to have the numbers to pass, it represents a direct attack on the political legitimacy of the outgoing president, just when she is trying to obtain a second term. The suspicion is that this move is not so much to bring down von der Leyen, but to: Weaken her negotiating position, Force her to make political concessions and reopen the game on the strategic EU appointments 2024–2029. This internal crisis comes at the worst possible time. A crisis of internal legitimacy in this context can undermine institutional stability and slow down all the economic reforms expected by the markets. Impact on Forex 1. EUR under pressure European political risk is back in the spotlight. Even if there was no immediate shock to the euro, institutional trading rooms are already pricing in more internal instability. This translates into: Downward pressure on EUR/USD, especially if the motion receives more votes than expected (even if it does not pass). EUR/CHF at risk of retracement, as the Swiss franc is seen as a safe haven currency in the event of EU institutional crises. EUR/GBP with potential loss of strength, especially if London takes advantage of the crisis to relaunch bilateral agreements. 2. Push for safe haven currencies JPY, USD and CHF have shown anomalous movements in the last few hours: political uncertainty is pushing traders to seek safe havens. The EUR/USD futures curve also shows a slight downward revaluation. 3. Upcoming events to monitor The real threat will be if the number of votes in favor of the no-confidence motion exceeds 30–35% of Parliament → in that case, even if the motion does not pass, von der Leyen will be delegitimized. The euro, in this case, could undergo a technical correction extended up to 1.0650, especially if accompanied by weak macro data. Follow me, if you like, for other updates.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
2
Biggest What-Ifs in Stocks (or How Investors Live with Regret)You think you’ve got regrets because you didn’t buy Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA at $50 or sold Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA at $420? Join the club. The stock market’s history is littered with “almost” trades, missed deals, and facepalm-worthy decisions that turned out to be trillion-dollar pivots. This is the hall of fame for what didn’t happen — and what those stories teach us about how markets (and human nature) actually work. Call it a free masterclass in greed, fear, FOMO, and the priceless value of just sitting tight sometimes. Take it easy today, grab your cold brew and read up on the biggest what-ifs in stock market history. 🍏 Ronald Wayne: The Patron Saint of “Oops” Our first inductee needs no introduction. But let’s do it anyway. Ronald Wayne, the third Apple NASDAQ:AAPL co-founder, sold his 10% stake back in 1976 for the princely sum of $800. He wanted to avoid any debts if things went south. Sensible, right? That $800 stake today would be worth more than $300 billion. That’s more than the GDP of Finland — and about 1.2 million new iPhones every single day for pretty much the rest of his life. Wayne has since said he doesn’t regret it. Which is probably the biggest lie he’s ever told. 🍿 Blockbuster’s Netflix “Pass” In 2000, Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX was a DVD-by-mail startup with spotty profits. Reed Hastings, Netflix’s founder, knocked on Blockbuster’s door and offered to sell the whole thing for $50 million — about the price of a Hollywood production. Blockbuster’s execs reportedly laughed him out of the room. “People will always want to drive to a store to rent a VHS,” they said, basically. Fast forward: Netflix is worth around $560 billion, and Blockbuster is down to one store that’s mostly a selfie museum for millennials who miss rewinding tapes. 💻 Microsoft’s Lifeline That Saved Apple In 1997, Apple NASDAQ:AAPL was broke. Steve Jobs had returned but was days away from the company flat-lining for good. Enter Bill Gates. Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT wrote Apple a $150 million check, partly to keep antitrust regulators off its back. Jobs even appeared on stage with Gates beaming in on a giant screen like Big Brother — a moment that made every Apple fan cringe. But that deal saved Apple’s hide. The iMac was born. The iPod followed. Then the iPhone. That $150 million is now a rounding error on Apple’s $3 trillion valuation. Sometimes your greatest rival is also your best frenemy. 🔍 Google: The $750K “Meh” Before “Google it” became a verb, Larry Page and Sergey Brin tried to sell their little search engine to Excite — the Yahoo-lite portal that dominated the ‘90s web. The price? $750,000. Excite’s CEO said search “wasn’t that important” — one of the worst calls in tech history. Today, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL is worth over $2.1 trillion and always flashing bright on the Stock Heatmap , and Excite is a footnote in a forgotten Web 1.0 graveyard. The lesson? Never dismiss a side project just because it doesn’t fit the spreadsheet. 💸 Masayoshi Son’s $200 Billion Slip SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son is known for his giant, risky bets . And in 2017, he made a pretty good one: his Vision Fund scooped up a 5% chunk of Nvidia stock worth about $4 billion. He called GPUs the backbone of the AI revolution. He was right. But by 2019, SoftBank was under pressure to tidy up its books. So Son sold the whole position for a tidy short-term profit. That stake today would be worth nearly $200 billion, given Nvidia’s rocket-fuel AI rally . “We can cry together,” CEO Jensen Huang told Masa Son at an AI Summit in Tokyo last year. Early doesn’t always mean patient. And being “kind of right” can be the most painful lesson of all. 📊 Berkshire Hathaway: A Textile Mill’s Rebirth Think of Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.A now — a $1 trillion behemoth. Insurance, utilities, railroads, huge piles of Apple shares . But back when Warren Buffett bought it, Berkshire was a dying textile business in New England. Buffett only bought control because he was annoyed at the CEO’s lowball tender offer. It turned into his permanent holding company. The textile side eventually went extinct — but the insurance side became the cash-printing machine Buffett used to buy everything else. Sometimes your best trade starts with pure pettiness. 🚀 Tesla: The Short Sellers’ Pain Cave Here’s a more recent tale. Tesla was not long ago the most shorted stock on Earth. Everyone from hedge funds to your uncle at Thanksgiving was betting on Elon’s dream to fail. Every now and then, the short-sellers get slapped with billions of dollars in losses, because the stock shoots up out of nowhere. The most recent example? November 12, when those naysayers nursed $7 billion in wiped out cash . Bears have been torched so many times, they might as well switch sides and sell Tesla hoodies instead. 🌌 Yahoo’s Double Miss: Google and Facebook If you think blowing one chance is bad, try blowing two. Yahoo turned down the chance to buy Google for less than a million bucks. Then years later, they offered $1 billion for Facebook (now META NASDAQ:META ) — but bungled the negotiations and tried to lower the price. Zuck said “nope.” But back to Google, because the story didn’t end there. In 2002, Yahoo said it wanted to buy Google for $3 billion. Brin and Page said $5 billion and Yahoo said no. Then Microsoft was ready to pay $40 billion to acquire Yahoo in 2008. But Yahoo said no. Today, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are trillion-dollar titans. Yahoo? Sold itself for $4.5 billion, mostly for its patents, in 2016 to Verizon. Talk about slipping on the same banana peel more than once. 🧃 Apple: The Splits that Keep Giving Want a reason to love boring old “buy and hold”? Apple NASDAQ:AAPL has split its stock five times since its 1980 IPO. If you’d bought 100 shares back then, you’d now have over 56,000 shares, plus mountains of dividends. Next time you want to swing trade every squiggle, remember: sometimes the slowest route is the sweetest. 📝 Regret: The Only Universal Asset Class Every trader has a “coulda, shoulda, woulda.” It’s the cost of doing business in a market that only makes sense in hindsight. Even the pros — billionaires, boards, hedge funds — have stories that make yours look tame. Ronald Wayne reminds you that selling too soon can cost you your own island. Masayoshi Son proves being right but impatient is still being wrong. Yahoo shows that “almost” is worth exactly zero on a balance sheet. What these stories prove is that the market’s biggest edge isn’t necessarily timing, genius, or inside scoops — it’s discipline, resilience, and sometimes a stubborn refusal to touch the sell button. 🤗 Bonus Story: Ballmer Regrets Nothing But not every story has to be a regret story. Just look at Steve Ballmer, Microsoft ‘s former CEO. Since the early 2000s, he’s been holding his 4% stake in the software maker and that’s now worth more than $130 billion. No regrets found. 👉 What’s Your “One That Got Away”? Now your turn : What’s your personal what-if story? Which ticker haunts you in your sleep? Drop your best missed trade or worst sell in the comments — we promise to laugh with you, not at you. Probably. Stay sharp. Stay patient!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
19
Compounders: 5 Simple Rules to Build Long-Term WealthImagine this: …it’s 18 years ago. The very first iPhone has just hit the market. Meanwhile, Nokia’s legendary “Snake” game, once the height of mobile fun, was starting to feel… dated. ⚡ And you can sense it: something big is coming. You don’t know exactly what, but something is about to shake the system. So, you invest €1,000 into Apple stock. No fancy moves, no day trading. You don’t check the price every morning, you don’t sell at the first dip. You just hold and go about your life, using their products as always. ---------------------------------- Fast forward to today: the iPhone has evolved quite a bit, and so has your bank account, “a bit”. That modest €1,000 investment would now be worth roughly €70,000. For context, if you had simply invested in the S&P 500 instead, your total profit would be €3,300. This is what happens when you hold a real compounder. Apple: +6,942%. S&P 500: +334%. Time doesn’t just pass, it compounds! Big difference, right? And the craziest part? You didn’t need a crystal ball. Looking back, everything makes perfect sense. The real question is: Can you spot the next one before it becomes obvious? --------------------------------------- 📈 Compounders: The slow, steady, and surprisingly effective path to wealth A compounder is a company that steadily grows your investment over time, powered by a strong business model and consistent value creation. These stocks don’t need to chase headlines. They don’t create drama, and they certainly don’t swing wildly every week on the stock exchange. They simply keep building value. Strong financials, good products, and a clear direction—like a snowball quietly rolling downhill, gathering momentum with every meter. As Warren Buffett once said: That’s exactly what compounders allow you to do. While you rest, they keep working. It’s definitely not a get-rich-quick strategy. It’s more like a slow, somewhat boring, and failry a “safer” route. But in return, it might just give you something far more valuable than fast gains: financial peace of mind, and perhaps even financial freedom. 🔍 So how do you spot one? Now, let’s be clear: compounders are not bulletproof. Market crashes, disruptive competitors, and economic shocks can still shake them.But when the foundation is solid, these companies tend to stand strong, even in a storm. Here are five key traits that define a true compounder. From consistent growth to an unshakable competitive edge. --------------------------------------- 📈 1. Steady Growth What you want to see is a steady upward trend in both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Not a rollercoaster. A clean, reliable trend. A strong compounder doesn’t explode one year and crash the next. It grows year after year. It grows calmly, consistently, and predictably… Microsoft EPS Q Source: TradingView That’s usually a sign of solid management and sticky customer demand. Let’s look at a key metric here: EPS CAGR (5-year) – the compound annual growth rate of earnings per share. 5% = solid → reliable and steady progress 10% = good → suggests a strong business model and real market demand 15%+ = great → this is where the snowball effect really kicks in, fast and orderly 📌 The higher the CAGR, the faster your investment compounds. But it’s not just about speed, it’s about repeatability. If that growth is not random but repeatable and sustainable, you don’t just have a growth stock → you’ve got a true compounder. ⚠️ Always consider the sector: A 15% CAGR might be normal in tech, but in a consumer brand or industrial company, that’s an exceptionally strong result. --------------------------------------- 💡 2. Efficient Capital Allocation A good compounder doesn’t just grow a lot—it grows wisely. That means every dollar the company reinvests into its business generates more than a dollar in return. Think of it like a business where every $1 invested turns into $1.20 or more in profit. The more efficiently it can put capital to work, the faster it compounds over time. 🎯 ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) tells you how effectively a company is using all its invested capital—including both equity and debt. ROIC shows how much profit the company earns after taxes and costs for every dollar it has invested, regardless of where that money came from.It’s broader than ROE, which only considers shareholder equity. >10% = solid >15% = good >20% = great 🎯 ROE (Return on Equity) measures how well the company generates returns specifically on shareholder money: >15% = solid >20% = good >25% = great 📌 In most cases, ROIC is more important than ROE , since it doesn’t get distorted by how much debt the company is using. But when both numbers are high, you’ve got something that creates a lot of value - a true compounding engine. Just imagine you give a chef $10 to make a dish. If they can turn that into a $15 meal, their ROIC is 50%. That’s the kind of capital efficiency we want to see in companies too, where every dollar invested pulls serious weight. --------------------------------------- 💰 3. High Profit Margins Selling stuff isn’t hard. Any company can sell something, even at a loss. A true compounder doesn’t just generate revenue, it earns real profit from it. That’s where operating margins come into play. They show how much money is actually left over after covering everything: salaries, logistics, rent, office coffee, stolen toilet paper, and all the other lovely overhead costs. ⚙️ Operating Margin – the percentage of revenue that turns into operating profit: 10% = solid → stable profitability, usually driven by volume or efficiency 20%+ = great → often signals strong pricing power, lean cost structure, or a dominant brand 📌 Why does this matter? Because the more profit a company retains after expenses, the more it can: - reinvest in new products or markets - pay dividends to shareholders - or buy back shares (which automatically increases your ownership per share) All of these create real, recurring value for you as an investor—not just once, but year after year. ⚠️ One important note: What qualifies as a “high” margin depends on the industry. A software company might easily run at 30% margins, while a retail chain or car manufacturer might be thrilled with 5%. So don’t judge the number in isolation. Always consider the type of business—in some sectors, profits come from volume, not margin. --------------------------------------- 🧱 4. Debt Matters Even if a company is growing fast and making money, it still doesn’t qualify as a true compounder if it’s drowning in debt. A real compounder moves forward mostly(!) under its own power, not thanks to borrowed money. Financially strong companies have a healthy buffer, so they’re not in trouble the moment the economy slows down or credit tightens. 📉 Debt-to-Equity (D/E) – how much of the company is financed with debt versus equity: Under 1 = solid → reasonable leverage Under 0.5 = great → very strong and conservative balance sheet 📈 Interest Coverage Ratio – how easily the company can pay its interest expenses: 5× = solid 10×+ = great → very safe, meaning debt costs won’t threaten profitability 📌 The lower the debt and the higher the buffer, the lower the risk.A company with a strong balance sheet doesn’t need to refinance debt in a panic or rely on costly tricks to survive downturns. Think of it like the foundation of a house. Without it, even the most beautiful structure can collapse. ⚠️ Some industries (like real estate or utilities) naturally operate with higher debt levels. But even in those cases, you want to see a business that controls its debt, rather than living “one day at a time.” --------------------------------------- 🏰 5. Durable Competitive Advantage (a.k.a. Moat) Back in the Middle Ages, a moat was a water-filled trench that protected a castle.Today, in investing, a “moat” is what protects great businesses from competition. It’s a business that others can’t easily reach or replicate. 💪 When a company has a wide moat, it can: - Defend its market share even when others try to attack - Command higher prices—because customers stay loyal - And if a competitor starts gaining ground, it often has enough capital to... just buy them out Here are some classic moat types with examples: - Brand Loyalty – People pay more for something familiarExample: Coca-Cola. There are hundreds of alternatives, but the taste, logo, and brand feel... irreplaceable. - Network Effects – Every new user strengthens the product or platformExample: Visa, Mastercard. The more they’re used, the harder it is for any new player to break in. - Technological Edge – The company is simply too far aheadExample: Nvidia, ASML. You can throw money at the problem, but patents and experience aren’t things you copy overnight. - Ecosystem Lock-in / Habitual Consumption – Customers get “stuck,” and switching feels like a hassleExample: Apple. Once you have the iPhone, AirPods, and MacBook… switching to Android just sounds like a lot of work.Or take Procter & Gamble. If your baby’s used to Pampers, you’re not going back to cloth diapers anytime soon. (To be fair—Huggies might actually be better 😄 That’s Kimberly-Clark, ticker KMB.) 📌 A strong moat allows a company to maintain both profitability and growth for the next 10+ years—because no one else can get close enough to steal it.It’s not fighting tooth and nail for every dollar. It rules its niche quietly and efficiently. --------------------------------------- Now that we’ve covered what makes a business a compounder, the next question naturally follows: “Okay, but if it’s such a great company... is it still a great price?” That’s where valuation comes in.P/E ratio: how to know whether you’re paying a fair price or just a premium for the brand. --------------------------------------- 👉 In my April article, I clearly broke down P/E along with eight other key fundamental metrics: straightforward, real-world explanations designed to help you actually use them… --------------------------------------- 💵 P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio) The P/E ratio tells you how much you’re paying for every $1 of a company’s earnings. Think of it like this: are you buying solid value for $20… or paying $70 just because the brand sounds familiar? Now, for compounders, a high P/E (say, 25–40) can actually be fine, IF(!) the company is growing fast and has a strong moat. Here’s a quick cheat sheet: * Under 15 → generally cheap (might be a bargain… or a trap) * 15–25 → fair price for a traditional business * 25–35 → reasonable if the company is growing consistently * 35–45 → starting to look expensive, must be justified by fundamentals * 45+ → expensive, and the market expects big things. One slip-up and the stock could drop fast. ⚠️ A P/E over 40–45 means the market expects strong, sustainable growth.If that growth doesn’t show up, the stock won’t just stumble—it could crash. But here’s the key: P/E doesn’t work well in isolation. Context is everything. Before judging the number, always ask: - What sector is this company in? - What’s the sector average? - How fast is the company growing? - Are the profits stable and sustainable? --------------------------------------- Real-World Examples: ✅ Visa – P/E around 37The average for financial stocks? Usually 10–15.But Visa grows quickly, is highly profitable, and has an ironclad moat.Is it expensive? Yes. But in this case, justifiably so. ✅ Microsoft – P/E around 35Tech-sector average tends to sit between 25–35.Microsoft has consistent growth, high margins, and clear market leadership.A P/E of 35 is absolutely reasonable—as long as the growth story continues. 🤔 But what if Microsoft trades at P/E 50+? Then you have to ask:Is earnings growth truly supporting that price?Or are you just paying for the brand... and a bit of FOMO? ----------------- Leave a comment: What’s the highest P/E you’ve ever paid, and was it worth it? ----------------- 📘 Compounder Cheat Sheet Don’t just stare at absolute numbers. Always compare within the sector, consider the company’s growth pace and business model. Ask yourself: “How much am I paying today for what this company will earn tomorrow?” --------------------------------------- 🧩 Summary Compounders are like good wine, they get better with time. Find companies that grow steadily, generate profits, keep debt low, and dominate their niche. Hold tight. Stay patient. Let the snowball roll. Thanks for reading! If this article was helpful or resonated with you, feel free to like, comment, or share it with a friend! It motivates me more than you’d think. 🙏 And if you’re new here: 🍷 Like good wine, this channel only gets better with time. Follow and let the ideas compound slowly, steadily, and deliciously. Cheers Vaido
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by VaidoVeek
5