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Will Your Tether Holdings Be Frozen Overnight?Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts ,✌ Spend 2 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. The main points are summarized in 3 clear lines at the end 📋 This will help you level up your understanding of the market 📊 and Bitcoin💰. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: A Personal Perspective: Since this is an educational analysis, I’ve kept the chart as simple as possible and provided the most concise Bitcoin analysis. 📉 The price is currently in a descending channel and approaching a key daily resistance level. I expect at least an 8% decline, with $75,000 acting as a major support zone. 📈 Now, let's dive into the educational section, which builds upon last week's lesson (linked in the tags of this analysis). Many of you have been eagerly waiting for this, as I have received multiple messages about it on Telegram. 🧐 Educational Segment: Will Your Tether Holdings Be Frozen Overnight? Understanding the EU’s New Crypto Regulations 🇪🇺 🔍 In 2023, the European Union (EU) introduced the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), a comprehensive legal framework aimed at increasing oversight of the cryptocurrency market. The primary objective of this regulation is to bring stability, transparency, and security to a sector that has historically operated with minimal supervision. One of the core focuses of MiCA is stablecoins, particularly their issuance, reserves, and compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) laws. The EU prefers highly regulated and trackable stablecoins, such as PayPal’s PYUSD, as these provide greater oversight of financial transactions. Under the new regulatory landscape, if Tether (USDT) fails to meet the EU’s compliance standards, authorities may restrict its usage within the European financial system and exchanges operating in the region. However, it is important to note that such restrictions would be a gradual process, not an abrupt overnight decision. ⏳⚖️ Who Will Be Affected? 🤔📉 These potential regulations primarily impact crypto traders, businesses, and exchanges operating within the EU. If Tether does not secure regulatory approval, platforms serving European customers may be required to delist or limit USDT transactions, similar to past instances where regulatory scrutiny led to the delisting of certain assets in specific jurisdictions. For individuals and businesses outside of the EU, particularly those using offshore or decentralized platforms, the immediate effects of these regulations would likely be minimal. However, broader market shifts and liquidity changes may still indirectly influence USDT trading volume and availability. 🌍📊 Will Tethers in High-Tension Middle Eastern Countries Be Frozen? 🚨🏦 Geopolitical Risks and US Sanctions 🇺🇸⚠️ Beyond EU regulations, concerns have arisen about whether Tether could be frozen in certain politically sensitive regions, particularly in conflict-prone areas of the Middle East. Given the U.S. government’s control over the global financial system and its increasing scrutiny of crypto transactions, there is speculation that Tether Holdings Ltd. could be pressured to comply with U.S. foreign policy directives, including asset freezes linked to sanctioned individuals, entities, or countries. Historically, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has taken a firm stance against financial transactions that could be linked to terrorism financing, money laundering, or sanctions violations. While Tether itself is not a U.S.-based company, it does interact with U.S. financial institutions and has previously cooperated with law enforcement agencies to freeze assets tied to criminal activities. 🏛️🔎 If geopolitical tensions worsen, there is a possibility that Tether’s compliance team may receive direct or indirect pressure to restrict access to its stablecoin in certain jurisdictions, mirroring actions previously taken against other crypto wallets and sanctioned entities. 🔥💰 How Can Users Protect Themselves? 🛡️💡 For individuals and businesses operating in high-risk regions, it is crucial to stay informed about potential regulatory and geopolitical shifts. Strategies to mitigate risks include: Diversifying stablecoin holdings by using multiple assets (e.g., DAI, USDC, or algorithmic stablecoins). 🔄💱 Utilizing decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions that reduce reliance on centralized stablecoin issuers. 🏗️🔐 Exploring on-chain privacy solutions to protect financial autonomy within legal and ethical boundaries. 🕵️‍♂️📲 Keeping funds in non-custodial wallets rather than centralized exchanges, which are more susceptible to regulatory enforcement. 🔑📜 In an upcoming guide , I will provide a comprehensive tutorial on how to protect your identity and crypto holdings while navigating regulatory challenges and geopolitical risks. Stay tuned for a detailed breakdown of secure storage, alternative stablecoins, and advanced privacy measures. 🚀🔮 However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice ⚠️. The crypto market carries high risks 📉, so always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅. 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 The EU’s MiCA regulations may restrict Tether (USDT) in European exchanges, but it won’t happen overnight. 🌍 Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions spark fears that the U.S. could freeze USDT in certain regions. If you’re outside these areas, the impact is minimal, but diversifying assets** is a smart move. Stay tuned for my next guide on protecting your identity, wallets, and crypto holdings! Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
9
Earthquake in Myanmar and Safe Haven Currencies Hello, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Forex Trader. Today I want to talk to you about the impact of catastrophic events, such as the recent earthquake in Myanmar, on the Forex market, with a particular focus on the role of safe haven currencies. During global crises or unpredictable events, investors tend to seek safety for their capital, moving it towards assets and currencies considered stable. This phenomenon, known as "flight to safety," occurs because markets become highly volatile and uncertain, and the risk of losses increases. Flight to safety and the importance of safe haven currencies When dramatic events such as the earthquake in Myanmar occur, global investors prefer to protect their portfolios. This often leads to a strengthening of so-called safe haven currencies, i.e. those currencies perceived as safe and stable. The reason is that these currencies tend to maintain their value or even strengthen in times of crisis, acting as anchors of stability for financial markets. Top Safe Haven Currencies Common safe haven currencies include: Swiss Franc (CHF): Switzerland is known for its economic and political stability. The Swiss Franc is often seen as a “safe haven” during times of instability. US Dollar (USD): The dollar is considered a safe haven currency due to the strength of the American economy and its status as the global reserve currency. Japanese Yen (JPY): Despite Japan having a high level of public debt, the yen is seen as a safe haven currency due to the country’s internal stability. Gold and Other Safe Haven Assets: Although gold and some other commodities are not currencies, they are often considered safe havens and their value indirectly influences currency markets. Impact of Earthquakes on Currencies and Forex An event like the Myanmar earthquake tends to cause capital to move into these safe haven currencies for the following reasons: Local Currency Depreciation: Myanmar’s currency, the Kyat, is coming under pressure due to economic instability and the need for large amounts of capital for reconstruction. Safe Haven Currencies Rise: As uncertainty increases, currencies like the CHF, USD and JPY strengthen as investors seek refuge. Market Volatility: Catastrophic events often lead to sudden price movements in major currency pairs, increasing risk while also providing opportunities for experienced Forex traders. Commodity Impact: If the disaster area is rich in natural resources, commodities may experience price fluctuations, significantly impacting related currencies like the AUD and CAD. Conclusion Natural events, like the Myanmar earthquake, are a reminder of how volatile the Forex market can be during times of crisis. Closely monitoring these dynamics is essential to adapt trading strategies and protect your investments. Understanding the role of safe haven currencies in these moments allows you to identify opportunities, reduce risks and maintain portfolio stability. I hope this article has provided you with a useful overview. If you have any questions or would like further information, do not hesitate to contact me.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Setting Support and Resistance Levels on a ChartIdentifying support and resistance levels helps pinpoint potential points of price growth or decline for an asset. I’ve tried various methods, such as Fibonacci levels and Gann fan, but they tend to be inconsistent—sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. In practice, marking previous highs and lows on the chart and using them as reference points has proven to be much more effective. If the price confidently breaks through a previous peak, it strongly suggests a trend continuation. However, it’s important to understand that support and resistance levels are not impenetrable barriers but rather guidelines indicating where the price might move. These levels are useful for: setting stop-losses, calculating the risk-reward ratio, providing additional confirmation for entering a position. When the price approaches a previous high, it’s crucial to observe market reactions. Jumping into a long position expecting a breakout or shorting in anticipation of a pullback isn’t always the best approach. It’s more rational to wait, see how the price interacts with the level, and then make a trading decision. I mark key levels retrospectively, using data from several decades if available. Example: Silver Let’s see how this method works with silver. In January 1980, the price peaked at $47.97, followed by a global decline. In May 2011, 30 years later, the price approached $47.97 again, slightly surpassing it but failing to reach $50. After that, a major downtrend began. This example clearly demonstrates the strength of support and resistance levels—even without considering inflation. And it's not the only one. How to Apply This Method? Open a chart of your chosen asset on higher timeframes (1D, 1W, 1M), study historical data, and mark key high and low levels. This will help you better understand the market and make more informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by kventinka
Chaos to Clarity: Mastering the Discipline Mindset5min read Looking back on my journey as an investor, I can see how much my mindset shaped my path. When I first started, I was a mess—chasing every hot tip, jumping into trades without a plan, and letting my emotions call the shots. I’d feel a surge of excitement when price spiked, but the moment it dipped, I’d panic and sell, locking in losses. It was a chaotic rollercoaster, and I was losing more than I was gaining. I knew something had to change, but I wasn’t sure where to begin. One day, I took a step back and really looked at myself. I realized the market wasn’t my biggest problem—I was. I was reacting to every little fluctuation, letting fear and greed drive my decisions. I started paying close attention to how I felt when I made trades. Was I anxious? Overconfident? I began noticing patterns. When I was stressed, I’d make impulsive moves that almost never worked out. But when I was calm and focused, my choices were better, and I’d often come out ahead. That was my first big revelation: my state of mind was the key to everything. I decided to get serious about controlling my emotions. I started small, setting strict rules for myself. I’d only trade when I was in a good headspace—calm, clear, and ready to stick to my plan. If I felt off, I’d step away from the screen, no exceptions. It was tough at first. I’d catch myself itching to jump into a trade just because everyone else was talking about it. But I learned to pause, take a deep breath, and check in with myself. Over time, I got better at staying steady, even when the market was a whirlwind. I also realized how much my beliefs were holding me back. I used to think I had to be in the market constantly to make money. If I wasn’t trading, I felt like I was missing out. But that mindset just led to burnout and bad calls. I started to change my thinking—I told myself it was okay to sit on the sidelines if the conditions weren’t right. I began to see that success wasn’t about being the busiest; it was about being the smartest. I focused on quality over quantity, and that shift made a huge difference. My wins started to outnumber my losses, and I felt more in control than I ever had. One of the toughest lessons came when I stopped blaming external factors for my failures. If a trade went south, I’d point the finger at the market, the news, or even the system I was using. But deep down, I knew that wasn’t the whole truth. I had to take responsibility for my own actions. I started treating every loss as a chance to learn. What was I feeling when I made that trade? Was I following my rules, or did I let my emotions take over? By owning my mistakes, I began to grow. I became more disciplined, more aware of my own patterns, and better at sticking to what worked. I’m not going to pretend I’m perfect now—I still make mistakes, plenty of them. At the beginning of this week, I came into trading loaded with personal problems from real life. I didn’t even pause to clear my head; I just dove straight into the charts and started opening long positions without much thought. By Friday, I realized what I’d done—I’d let my distracted, emotional state drive my decisions. So, I closed all my positions except one, cutting my losses quickly and stepping back to reassess. That’s what’s changed: I recognize those mistakes almost immediately now. I don’t hang on to them or let them spiral. I catch myself, fix the problem fast, and move on without beating myself up. That ability to pivot quickly has been a game-changer. I’m not stuck in the past anymore—I’m focused on getting better with every step. Over time, I learned to tune out the noise and focus on what I could control. I stopped worrying about what other people were doing and started trusting my own process. I’d remind myself that investing isn’t just about the numbers—it’s about the person behind the trades. The more I worked on my mindset, the more consistent my results became. I learned to stay present, keep my emotions in check, and approach every decision with a clear head. That’s what turned me into the investor I am today—someone who’s not just chasing profits, but building a sustainable, successful approach to the markets, mistakes and all.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by vagada
Convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17Yo traders - Let’s map out a convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17, 2025 $75 Call option — currently trading at $1.00, with the stock at $65.97 and only 18 days to expiry. 🔍 Step-by-Step Breakdown: 🧠 1. Basic Structure You’re buying the LOAR Apr17 $75 call at $1.00. This is a deep OTM bet (~13.7% above current price). You’re betting on a short-term move to $75+, meaning volatility spike or news catalyst. ⚙️ 2. Convexity Setup Convexity means: Small risk, asymmetric reward If LOAR stays flat or dips → you lose $1 per contract If LOAR rips to $80+ → this option could return 5x to 10x+ LOAR Price at Expiry Option Intrinsic Value Profit/Loss $66 (flat) $0 -$1.00 $70 $0 -$1.00 $75 (strike) $0 -$1.00 $77 $2.00 +$1.00 $80 $5.00 +$4.00 (5x) $85 $10.00 +$9.00 (9x) 🧾 3. Chart + Sentiment Setup Looking at the TradingView chart: Price Action: LOAR is basing around $66 after a steep downtrend — potential reversal pattern Volume is light, but some buy pressure is visible MACD: Appears to be flattening and potentially crossing bullish RSI: ~40s: Oversold-to-neutral zone. Could support upward bounce. Earnings coming up (E icon): Strong potential for a catalyst move This setup enhances convexity, because earnings can produce gap moves that DOTM options profit from disproportionately. 🔮 4. Convexity Scenario Thesis (Narrative) "LOAR has pulled back hard and is showing signs of base-building. Earnings are in 2–3 weeks. If guidance surprises to the upside — or macro tailwinds hit the sector — a short squeeze or re-rating toward $75–80 could occur. I’m risking $1 per contract for a shot at $5–10. If it doesn’t move, I accept the full loss." This is a classic event-driven convexity play. ⚠️ 5. Risks & Considerations Time decay is brutal: With only 18 days left, theta decay accelerates daily IV Crush post-earnings could hurt even if the stock moves You need a fast, strong move, ideally before or at earnings Position sizing is critical: This is a "lottery ticket" — don’t over-allocate ✅ 6. Ideal for Your Strategy If: You're making many small bets like this across tickers/catalysts You’re not trying to be “right” often, but “big” occasionally You have capital discipline and uncorrelated base assets 🧮 Position Size: Option price = $1.00 per contract You buy 100 contracts of the $75 call Total risk = $100 Each $1.00 move above $75 = $100 profit per $1, since 100 contracts × 100 shares/contract = 10,000 shares exposure 📈 Upside Payoff Table LOAR Price at Expiry Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100 $65–$74.99 $0.00 $0 -$100 -100% $76 $1.00 $1 × 10,000 = $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900% $77 $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900% $80 $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900% $85 $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900% $90 $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900% $100 $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900% 🧠 Interpretation Max Loss: $100 (fixed, regardless of LOAR's move down or sideways) Breakeven at Expiry: LOAR must hit $76.00 10x return if LOAR trades just $1 above strike Massive asymmetry — you risk $100 for a shot at $10k–250k if LOAR rips on earnings or news. 📌 Real-World Considerations: You might exit early if the option spikes in value before expiry (e.g., stock runs to $72 with 5 days left). Liquidity may limit large size fills. Volatility matters: IV spike pre-earnings or a big gap post-earnings increases your chance of profit. 📊 Convex Payoff Table for LOAR Apr17 $75 Call (100 Contracts, $100 Risk) LOAR Price at Expiry % Move from $65.97 Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100 $65–$74.99 0% to +13.6% $0.00 $0 -$100 -100% $76 +15.2% $1.00 $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900% $77 +17.0% $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900% $80 +21.3% $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900% $85 +28.9% $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900% $90 +36.4% $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900% $100 +51.6% $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900% 🧠 Takeaway: Even a 15% move turns your $100 into $10,000 — this is why convex trades are so powerful. But the trade-off is probability: the odds of a 15–50%+ move in 18 days are low, which is why risk is capped and position sizing matters.
NYSE:LOAREducation
by TheHouseofTrade
Mastering Risk Management in Trading: The Ultimate GuideMastering Risk Management in Trading: The Ultimate Guide In the world of trading, success isn’t measured only by big wins but by how well you protect your capital from unnecessary losses. Risk management isn’t just a safety net—it’s the backbone of sustainable trading. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll break down the principles and strategies you need to safeguard your account while still maximizing your profit potential. --- 1. Risk-Reward Ratio: The Foundation of Every Trade - What it is: The risk-reward ratio is the cornerstone of every trade. It tells you how much potential reward you’re targeting compared to the risk you’re willing to take. For instance, if you risk $100 and aim to make $200, your risk-reward ratio is 1:2—a commonly accepted standard in trading. - How to use it: - Always predefine your risk-reward ratio before entering a trade. - For swing traders, aim for a minimum of 1:2 or 1:3 to justify holding overnight. --- 2. Position Sizing: The Key to Survival - Why position sizing matters: Position sizing ensures you don’t over-leverage your account or lose too much in a single trade. Many traders fail because they bet too big and get wiped out after just a few losing trades. - How to calculate position size: - Use this formula: Position Size = (Account Risk $ ÷ (Entry Price - Stop-Loss Price)). - For example, if you’re risking $100 per trade and the difference between your entry and stop-loss is $5, your position size should be 20 units (100 ÷ 5). --- 3. Stop-Loss Orders: Your Safety Net - What is a stop-loss? A stop-loss is your emergency brake. It’s an order you set in advance to sell your position if the price moves against you by a specified amount. - How to set stop-losses: - Use technical analysis to place your stop-loss below support levels for long trades or above resistance levels for short trades. - Avoid placing stop-losses too close to your entry point, as small fluctuations might trigger them unnecessarily. Here you can see my ratio is on the low side so i can place a tactical TP and SL in relation to liquidity lines. --- 4. The Art of Diversification: Spreading Risk - Why diversification works: Putting all your capital into a single trade or instrument increases your risk. Diversification spreads that risk across multiple trades or markets, reducing the impact of any single loss. - How to diversify effectively: - Trade across multiple sectors or currency pairs. - Avoid overexposure to correlated assets (e.g., don’t trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD simultaneously). --- 5. Emotional Discipline: Winning the Mental Game - Why it matters: Even the best trading strategy can fail if emotions like fear or greed take over. Emotional trading leads to impulsive decisions, revenge trading, and overtrading. - How to maintain discipline: - Stick to your trading plan, no matter what. - Use tools like meditation, journaling, or physical exercise to manage stress. --- 6. Dynamic Risk Management: Adapting to Changing Markets - Adjusting your strategy: Markets are dynamic, and your risk management should adapt. Volatility can change quickly, requiring you to adjust your stop-loss distance or position size. - Use ATR (Average True Range): The ATR is a great tool to measure market volatility and decide how much room to give your stop-loss. --- 7. Tracking and Reviewing Your Trades - The power of a trading journal: Every trade is a learning opportunity. Keep detailed records of your trades, including your reasoning, execution, and results. - What to include in your journal: - Entry and exit points. - Risk-reward ratio. - Mistakes or deviations from the plan. - Lessons learned. --- Conclusion: Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan Risk management isn’t just a skill—it’s a habit. By understanding your risk-reward ratio, managing position sizes, using stop-losses effectively, and staying emotionally disciplined, you can protect your capital and increase your chances of long-term success. Take a moment to reflect: How do you manage risk in your trading? Are there areas you could improve? Start implementing these strategies today, and watch how they transform your trading results.
Education
by Louigi_24
29
Master the Market with These 5 Wave Trading RulesHello, In any business, rules are the backbone of success, providing the structure and discipline needed to thrive. Trading and investing are no exceptions—they must be treated with the same seriousness and rigor as any entrepreneurial venture. As a wave trader, I rely on a refined set of rules that blend technical analysis with Wave Theory to understand market behavior. Wave trading is a powerful strategy that analyzes price patterns to uncover the cyclical nature of market trends, enabling traders to predict future movements and seize profitable opportunities. Understanding Wave Trading Markets don’t move randomly—they ebb and flow in predictable waves. According to Elliott Wave Theory (a type of wave theory), trends unfold in a series of five waves (known as impulses) followed by three waves (corrections). Mastering this rhythm allows you to anticipate where the market is headed next, giving you a strategic edge. Our Trading Rules Here’s a breakdown of the essential rules I follow as a wave trader, designed to guide you through the process with clarity and precision: Identify Impulse & Correction Impulse: A robust, directional price surge made up of five sub-waves, signaling the dominant trend. Correction: A smaller, counter-trend move consisting of three sub-waves, acting as a pause or pullback. Recognizing these phases reveals the market’s underlying structure. For example, spotting a five-wave impulse upward suggests a bullish trend, while a three-wave correction might signal a temporary dip—perfect for planning your next move. Identify the Pattern Formations Look for patterns that can help you anticipate the next moves e.g. the expanding triangle, Bullish flag or even reversal patterns. Identify Entry Points Timing is everything. Pinpoint the perfect moment to enter a trade based on your wave and pattern analysis. Wait for confirmations like a breakout above a flag pattern or a signal from indicators such as moving averages or MACD that align with your wave count. Look for Targets Set clear profit targets to stay disciplined and secure gains. Wave projections, like the expected end of wave 5 in an impulse. Look for Exits in Case the Trade Doesn’t Go Your Way Not every trade is a winner, and that’s okay. Protect your capital with stop-losses placed at logical levels. Where to set them: Choose points that invalidate your analysis—like below a key support level or a wave pattern’s critical threshold. If the market breaks that level, your trade idea’s likely wrong, so exit calmly. This removes emotion from the equation, safeguarding your account for the long haul. The Power of Discipline These rules aren’t just guidelines—they’re your shield against the emotional rollercoaster of trading. Write them down, pin them up, or keep them handy on your trading desk. Reviewing them before every trade reinforces your commitment to a systematic, objective approach. Discipline turns good strategies into great results. Wishing you success on your trading journey! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Education
by thesharkke
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless MindHere you have Charles Thomas Munger, the permanent vice president of one of the most successful companies in the world, Berkshire Hathaway. He was not at the origins of this business, but it was Charles, together with Warren Buffett, who turned a dying enterprise into a star of the world stock market. It didn't take a Master's degree in Business Administration or incredible luck. As Mr. Munger said, to succeed you don't necessarily have to strive to be the smartest, you just have to be not stupid and avoid the standard ways of failure. He worked as a meteorologist, then a lawyer, and finally as someone we know well - an investor who inspired many to take a smart approach to business and their own lives. “I don’t think you should become president or a billionaire because the odds are too great against you. It is much better to set achievable goals. I didn't set out to become rich, I set out to be independent. I just went a little overboard”, Charles joked. Wake up every morning, work hard, be disciplined and surprisingly, everything will work out very well. This commandment sounds a little archaic in times of rapid rise and easy money. However, for anyone who thinks years and decades ahead, it is difficult to come up with something better. Speaking to students at his hometown University of Michigan, Mr. Munger said the most important decision you make in life is not your business career, but your marriage. It will do more good or bad for you than anything else. He attached such great importance to human relationships. This correlates strongly with a study of human happiness that has been ongoing for over 85 years under the auspices of Harvard University. The scientists' main conclusion was that everything we build (portfolios, businesses, strategies) is worthless if there is no person in our lives to whom we can say a simple “I'm here”. Or “Thank you”. Or “I love you”. The healthiest and happiest in old age were not those subjects who earned the most. And those who have maintained good, trusting relationships. Marital. Friendly. Related. And in this light, Charles Munger's words about caution, moderation and common-sense sound quite different. It's not about money. It's about a life that can be lived with the feeling that you have enough. That you don't have to be a hero. That you can just be a reasonable person. Loving. Healthy. Calm. Perhaps this is the main secret of Mr. Munger's success in the stock market? In the long run, the one who has already won achieves a positive result. November 28th, 2023, was the last day of the cheerful Charlie's life. There were 34 days left until his 100th birthday.
NYSE:BRK.AEducation
by Be_Capy
Mastering Compulsiveness: Volatile Coins Like TRUMP Are a Trap My Take on Dealing with Compulsiveness in Trading: Lessons with TRUMPUSDT.P Estimated Reading Time: Approximately 5 minutes I chose to focus on TRUMPUSDT.P for this idea because its extreme volatility makes it a perfect example of how compulsive trading can spiral out of control. TRUMPUSDT.P, a perpetual futures contract tied to the TRUMP token, often swings 20-30% in a day, driven by political news and social media hype, which can easily tempt traders into impulsive decisions and overtrading. After years of trading and studying trading psychology, I’ve learned how dangerous compulsiveness can be in the markets. I used to think being a good trader meant always being in the game, but I’ve seen how that mindset can lead to disaster. Compulsiveness is when you’re driven by the need to act—chasing the thrill of trading instead of focusing on steady profits. It’s a trap that can lead to overtrading, emotional exhaustion, and serious financial losses, not to mention the strain it puts on your life outside of trading. From my experience, compulsiveness often unfolds in three stages. First, you get a taste of winning, and it makes you feel unstoppable, so you keep pushing for more action. Then, when losses start piling up, you enter a losing phase where you trade recklessly to get back what you lost. Before you know it, you’re in a desperation phase, completely consumed by the need to recover, which often leads to even bigger losses. I’ve been through this cycle myself, and it’s a tough one to break. One thing that really helped me was learning how to spot compulsive behavior. I came across a set of questions from Gambler’s Anonymous that can help you figure out if you’re showing signs of compulsiveness—like feeling the urge to trade after a loss or letting trading take over other parts of your life. It’s a simple way to check in with yourself and see if you’re heading down a risky path. Over time, I’ve picked up some strategies to keep compulsiveness in check and build better discipline. The biggest one is to only trade when I have a clear, logical reason—like a price reaching a key support or resistance level on the daily chart of TRUMPUSDT.P—otherwise, I stay out of the market, no matter how much I feel the itch to jump in. I’ve also learned to pay attention to my emotional state and recognize when I’m trading out of impulse rather than focus. Shifting my mindset to care more about the process of trading well, rather than the excitement of being in a trade, has made a huge difference. I make sure to take breaks when I feel the urge to overtrade, set strict limits on how much I’m willing to risk, and always take time to reflect on why I’m making a trade in the first place. What I’ve come to understand is that trading isn’t about constant action—it’s about mastering your mind. Compulsiveness can ruin your trading if you let it take over, especially with a volatile ticker like TRUMPUSDT.P, but with self-awareness and discipline, you can get past it. For me, it’s all about trading with intention, keeping my emotions in check, and focusing on long-term consistency instead of short-term thrills. If you found this helpful, keep following me for more educational materials on the psychology of trading. I’ll be sharing more insights and strategies to help you master your mindset and become a more disciplined trader.
Education
by vagada
2
US Cash Market Goes 'Flippant'. Understanding Revenge in TradingFirst of all, revenge trading is a destructive pattern of behavior in trading where individuals make impulsive and emotionally-driven decisions in an attempt to recoup previous losses. This practice is not limited to novice traders; even experienced traders can fall prey to it. The primary emotions driving revenge trading include anger, frustration, greed, fear, and shame, which cloud judgment and lead to irrational decision-making. Causes of Revenge Trading Emotional Response: Traders often react emotionally to significant losses, feeling compelled to immediately recover their losses without adequate analysis or strategy. Lack of Discipline: Deviating from established trading plans and risk management principles is common in revenge trading. Psychological Triggers: Feelings of injustice, anger, or a desire for vengeance against the market can trigger revenge trading. Consequences of Revenge Trading Financial Losses: Revenge trading often results in larger losses due to riskier trades and poor timing. Emotional Burnout: The stress and frustration from repeated losses can lead to emotional exhaustion and decreased trading performance. Career Impact: Persistent revenge trading can erode confidence and lead to a trader questioning their abilities. Real-Life Examples of Revenge Trading Increasing Position Size: A trader experiences a significant loss and decides to double or triple their position size in the next trade, hoping to quickly recover their losses. This action disregards risk management principles and often leads to even greater losses. Ignoring Stop-Loss Orders: After a loss, a trader might hold onto a losing position longer than planned, hoping it will turn around. This behavior ignores established stop-loss orders and can result in further financial damage. Chasing Trades: A trader feels compelled to enter trades without proper analysis, driven by the urge to recoup losses quickly. This impulsive behavior can lead to a series of poor trading decisions. Market Reversal Scenario: A trader suffers a loss due to a sudden market reversal. In an attempt to recover, they enter a trade in the opposite direction without thorough analysis, which can exacerbate their losses. Wish more examples? Watch recent one below 👇👇 How to Avoid Revenge Trading To avoid revenge trading, traders should focus on maintaining discipline and adhering to their trading strategies. This includes: Taking Breaks: After a loss, taking time to reassess the market and calm emotions can help prevent impulsive decisions. Sticking to Plans: Adhering to established trading plans and risk management principles is crucial. Emotional Awareness: Recognizing emotional triggers and taking steps to manage them can help prevent revenge trading. In conclusion, revenge trading is a HARMFUL AND DANGEROUS practice that can lead to significant financial and emotional consequences. Understanding its causes and recognizing its signs are essential steps in avoiding this behavior and maintaining a successful trading career. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
CME_MINI:NQM2025Education
by PandorraResearch
High Volatility Trade Management & Risk Management Strategies With a current geopolitical uncertainty and the election of Trump, forex market and gold experience wild price fluctuations. These unpredictable swings can result in substantial losses, particularly for the beginners in trading. In this article, I will share with you the essential trade management and risk management tips for dealing with extreme volatility in trading. I will reveal proven strategies and techniques for avoiding losses and unexpected risks. 1. First and foremost, pay attention to the news. The main driver of high volatility on the markets are the news , especially the bad ones. In normal times, high impact news events are relatively rare, while in times of uncertainty their frequency increases dramatically. Such news may easily invalidate the best technical analysis setup: any powerful support or resistance level, strong price action or candle stick pattern can be easily overturned by the fundamentals. Trump tariffs threats against Canada made USDCAD rise by 400 pips rapidly, while the change of rhetoric quickly returned the prices to previous levels. One you hold an active trade, monitor the news. If you see the impactful news that may affect the pair or instrument that you trade, immediately protect your position, moving stop loss to entry. It will help you avoid losses if the market starts going against you. 2. Even constantly monitoring the news, you will not be able to protect yourself from all the surprising movements. Sometimes your trades will quickly be closed in a loss. Therefore, I strictly recommend measure a lot size for every trade that you take. Make sure that you risk no more than 1% of your trading account per trade. That will help you to minimize losses cased by the impactful, uncertain events. 3. The impactful events may also occur on weekend, while Forex market is closed. Such incidents can be the cause of huge gap openings. If you hold an active trading position over the weekend, remember that your entire account can be easily blown with such gaps. Imagine that you decided to buy EURUSD on Friday during the NY session and keep holding the position over the weekend. A huge gap down opening would make you face huge losses, opening the market 125 pips below the entry level. By the way, this day I received a dozen of messages from my followers that their accounts were blown with the opening gaps. 4. If you see a significant price movement caused by some events, and you did not manage to catch it, let it go. Jumping in such movements is very risky because quite ofter correctional movements will follow quickly. It will be much safer and better to try to be involved in a trend continuation after a pullback. Look what happened with Gold when Trump began a new trade war. The price started to grow rapidly. However, even during such a sentiment, 500 pips pullback occurred, giving patient traders a safe entry point for the trade. 5. In the midst of geopolitical tensions and trade wars, the markets tend to rally or fall for the extended time periods. The best trading strategies to use to get maximum from such movements are trend-following strategies. While reversal, counter-trend trading might be extremely risky, providing a lot of false signals. Trend trading may bring extraordinary profits. These trading tips, risk management and trade management strategies and secrets are tailored for cutting and avoiding losses during dark times. Empower your strategy with this useful knowledge and good luck to you in trading high volatility on Gold and Forex. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
The Power of Commitment in Trading Psychology: A Key to Success The Power of Commitment in Trading Psychology: A Key to Success 📈💡 Hey TradingView community! I’ve been diving into some trading books lately, and one chapter really hit home: it’s all about commitment. Turns out, it’s the key to making it as a trader—especially in the crypto space where volatility can test your emotions. Here’s what I learned and how I’m applying it to my trading mindset. Commitment isn’t just about showing up—it’s about promising yourself to be the best trader you can be. I read about a guy who made a ton of money but lost it all because he wasn’t fully in. It made me realize: you can’t just dabble in this game. You gotta go all in. For me, this means sticking to my trading plan, even when the market (or my emotions) tempts me to stray. In crypto, where prices can swing wildly, this is crucial. One big thing that messes with commitment is the battle between wanting quick wins and sticking to a plan. I’ve caught myself following random advice without thinking—anyone else been there? It’s a trap. Commitment means getting your mind, emotions, and actions on the same page. I’m working on staying disciplined by focusing on my system, even during losing streaks. For example, I use stop-losses and take-profits to keep my emotions in check when trading BTC or ETH. Here’s a 3-step process I picked up to build commitment: 1️⃣ Figure out what you really want from trading (e.g., steady growth, not just mooning coins). 2️⃣ Spot what’s getting in your way (like fear of losses or FOMO). 3️⃣ Make a plan to push through—like setting clear risk management rules. For me, this has been a game-changer in staying consistent, especially in volatile markets like crypto. Psychology matters so much! A lot of traders fail not because their system sucks, but because they can’t stick with it. I’m starting to see how knowing myself better helps me stay committed. Some practical stuff I’m trying: starting small to build confidence, sticking to my system no matter what, learning from experienced traders, and not letting fear of losses throw me off. My current focus is on keeping my position sizes small (1-2% risk per trade) and reviewing my equity curve weekly to ensure I’m on track. Biggest takeaway: commitment is what makes or breaks you as a trader. It’s about knowing yourself, staying disciplined, and pushing through the tough times. I’m ready to step up—how about you? What’s your biggest challenge with staying committed in trading? Let’s discuss in the comments! 👇
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by vagada
Repaying the Italian debt in 40 years. The method. Hello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an ambitious, innovative and potentially revolutionary idea for the management of the Italian public debt. A strategy that, in theory, could heal the enormous accumulated debt and bring Italy to a stronger and more stable financial position. Let's find out together how it could work. The basic idea Italy, with a public debt that amounts to about 2,900 billion euros, pays 70 billion euros in interest annually to its creditors. However, imagine an alternative scenario in which those 70 billion, instead of being paid for the payment of interest, are invested in index funds with an estimated average annual return of 10%. Furthermore, the profits generated would be reinvested annually. It is a solution that is based on the power of compound interest. From the second year, Italy would also have the 70 billion euros available annually no longer tied to the payment of interest. These funds could be used in strategic ways to support economic recovery. Agreements with creditors To make this proposal feasible, Italy would have to negotiate an agreement with creditors. The agreement would include a temporary suspension of interest payments, with the promise that the State will repay the entire debt within 40 years, also guaranteeing a compensatory interest of 10% as a "disturbance". This implies that creditors must accept a long-term vision, trusting in the profitability of investments and the ability of the Italian State to honor the final commitment. Simulation: how it could work If the 70 billion were invested from the first year in index funds with an average annual return of 10%, the capital would grow exponentially thanks to compound interest. Over 40 years, the investment would accumulate over 3,241 billion euros, a sum sufficient to repay the public debt of 2,900 billion and to provide a surplus to satisfy the extra interest promised to creditors. Meanwhile, from the second year, Italy would have at its disposal the 70 billion annually previously earmarked for interest payments. Over 40 years, this figure would represent a total of 2,800 billion euros, which could be used to: Strengthen strategic infrastructure in the transport, energy and digital sectors. Reduce the tax burden and encourage economic growth. Improve social services, such as healthcare, welfare and education. Further reduce the residual debt, strengthening the country's financial stability. Conclusion With this strategy, Italy would not only repay its public debt, but would also start an unprecedented phase of economic recovery. The combination of compound interest and the reallocation of freed funds represents an innovative vision to solve one of the main economic challenges of our time. However, the implementation of such an ambitious plan would require financial discipline, political stability and careful management of investments. Furthermore, it would be essential to negotiate a transparent and advantageous agreement with creditors, ensuring trust and credibility in international markets. Whether this is a utopia or a real opportunity will depend on the ability to imagine and adopt bold solutions for the good of the country.
MIL:EUROEducation
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Decoding Fed Rate Changes via Federal Funds Futures Index◉ What Are Federal Funds Futures? ● Definition: Federal Funds Futures are financial contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that allow market participants to bet on or hedge against future changes in the federal funds rate (the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight). ● Purpose: These futures reflect the market's expectations of where the Fed will set interest rates in the future. ◉ How Federal Funds Futures Work? ● Pricing: The price of a federal funds futures contract is calculated as 100 minus the expected average federal funds rate for the contract month. ➖ Example: If the futures price is 95.00, it implies an expected federal funds rate of 5.00% (100 - 95 = 5). ● Contract Expiry: Each contract represents the market's expectation of the average federal funds rate for a specific month. ◉ Why Use Federal Funds Futures? ● Predict Fed Policy: Traders and investors use these futures to gauge the likelihood of the Fed raising, cutting, or holding interest rates. ● Hedge Risk: Institutions use them to protect against potential losses caused by interest rate changes. ● Market Sentiment: They provide insight into what the broader market expects from the Fed. ◉ Steps to Analyze Fed Policy Using Federal Funds Futures ● Step 1: Check Current Federal Funds Futures Prices Look up the prices of federal funds futures contracts for the months you're interested in. These are available on financial platforms like Bloomberg, Reuters, or the CME Group website. ● Step 2: Calculate the Implied Federal Funds Rate Implied Federal Funds Rate = 100 - Futures Price. ➖ Example: If the futures price for March is 95.5, the implied rate is 4.5% (100 - 95.5 = 4.5). ● Step 3: Compare Implied Rates to the Current Rate If the implied rate is higher than the current federal funds rate, the market expects the Fed to raise rates. If it's lower, the market expects a rate cut. ● Step 4: Estimate the Probability of Rate Changes By comparing the implied rates of contracts expiring before and after an FOMC meeting, you can estimate the probability of a rate change. ➖ Example: If the implied rate for March is 4.75% and the current rate is 4.5%, the market is pricing in a 25 basis point (0.25%) hike. ● Step 5: Monitor Changes Over Time Track how futures prices change over time. Shifts in prices indicate changes in market expectations. For example, if futures prices drop (implying higher rates), it suggests the market is anticipating a more hawkish Fed. ◉ Practical Applications ● Trading: Traders use federal funds futures to speculate on interest rate movements. ● Economic Forecasting: Economists use them to predict the Fed's monetary policy and its impact on the economy. ● Investment Strategy: Investors adjust their portfolios based on expected rate changes (e.g., shifting from bonds to equities if rates are expected to rise). ◉ Limitations of Federal Funds Futures ● Market Sentiment: Futures prices reflect market expectations, which can be influenced by sentiment and may not always accurately predict Fed actions. ● External Shocks: Unexpected events (e.g., geopolitical crisis, pandemics) can disrupt rate expectations. ● Liquidity: Less liquid contracts (further out in time) may not accurately reflect expectations. ◉ Example Analysis Let’s assume: ➖  Current federal funds rate: 4.5% ➖  March federal funds futures price: 95.5 ● Step 1: Calculate the implied rate: 100 − 95.5 = 4.5%. ● Step 2: Compare to the current rate: The implied rate (4.5%) is equal to the current rate (4.5%), suggesting the market expects no change in rates by March. ● Step 3: If the futures price drops to 95.25, the implied rate becomes 4.75%, indicating the market now expects a 25 basis point rate hike.. ◉ Why This Matters? ● For Traders: Federal funds futures provide a direct way to bet on or hedge against interest rate changes. ● For Investors: Understanding rate expectations helps in making informed decisions about asset allocation. ● For Economists: These futures offer valuable insights into market expectations of monetary policy. ◉ Conclusion Federal funds futures are a powerful tool for analyzing and predicting the Fed's interest rate decisions. By understanding how to interpret these futures, traders, investors, and economists can gain valuable insights into market expectations and make more informed decisions. However, it's important to consider their limitations and use them in conjunction with other economic indicators for a comprehensive analysis.
CBOT:ZQH2025Education
by NaranjCapital
1
Behind the Curtain The Economic Pulse Behind Euro FX1. Introduction Euro FX Futures (6E), traded on the CME, offer traders exposure to the euro-dollar exchange rate with precision, liquidity, and leverage. Whether hedging European currency risk or speculating on macro shifts, Euro FX contracts remain a vital component of global currency markets. But what truly moves the euro? Beyond central bank meetings and headlines, the euro reacts sharply to macroeconomic data that signals growth, inflation, or risk appetite. Using a Random Forest Regressor, we explored how economic indicators correlate with Euro FX Futures returns across different timeframes. In this article, we uncover which metrics drive the euro daily, weekly, and monthly, offering traders a structured, data-backed approach to navigating the Euro FX landscape. 2. Understanding Euro FX Futures Contracts The CME offers two primary Euro FX Futures products: o Standard Euro FX Futures (6E): Contract Size: 125,000 € Tick Size: 0.000050 per euro = $6.25 per tick per contract Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours, Sunday to Friday (US) o Micro Euro FX Futures (M6E): Contract Size: 12,500 € (1/10th the size of 6E) Tick Size: 0.0001 per euro = $1.25 per tick per contract Accessible to: Smaller accounts, strategy testers, and traders managing precise exposure o Margins: 6E Initial Margin: ≈ $2,600 per contract (subject to volatility) M6E Initial Margin: ≈ $260 per contract Whether trading full-size or micro contracts, Euro FX Futures offer capital-efficient access to one of the most liquid currency pairs globally. Traders benefit from leverage, scalability, and transparent pricing, with the ability to hedge or speculate on Euro FX trends across timeframes. 3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators For day traders, short-term price action in the euro often hinges on rapidly released data that affects market sentiment and intraday flow. According to machine learning results, the top 3 daily drivers are: Housing Starts: Surging housing starts in the U.S. can signal economic strength and pressure the euro via stronger USD flows. Conversely, weaker construction activity may weaken the dollar and support the euro. Consumer Sentiment Index: A sentiment-driven metric that reflects household confidence. Optimistic consumers suggest robust consumption and a firm dollar, while pessimism may favor EUR strength on defensive rotation. Housing Price Index (HPI): Rising home prices can stoke inflation fears and central bank hawkishness, affecting yield differentials between the euro and the dollar. HPI moves often spark short-term FX volatility. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Swing traders looking for trends spanning several sessions often lean on energy prices and labor data. Weekly insights from our Random Forest model show these three indicators as top drivers: WTI Crude Oil Prices: Oil prices affect global inflation and trade dynamics. Rising WTI can fuel EUR strength if it leads to USD weakness via inflation concerns or reduced real yields. Continuing Jobless Claims: An uptick in claims may suggest softening labor conditions in the U.S., potentially bullish for EUR as it implies slower Fed tightening or economic strain. Brent Crude Oil Prices: As the global benchmark, Brent’s influence on inflation and trade flows is significant. Sustained Brent rallies could create euro tailwinds through weakening dollar momentum. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Position traders and institutional participants often focus on macroeconomic indicators with structural weight—those that influence monetary policy direction, capital flow, and long-term sentiment. The following three monthly indicators emerged as dominant forces shaping Euro FX Futures: Industrial Production: A cornerstone of economic output, rising industrial production reflects strong manufacturing activity. Strong U.S. numbers can support the dollar, while a slowdown may benefit the euro. Likewise, weaker European output could undermine EUR demand. Velocity of Money (M2): This metric reveals how quickly money is circulating in the economy. A rising M2 velocity suggests increased spending and inflationary pressures—potentially positive for the dollar and negative for the euro. Falling velocity signals stagnation and may shift flows into the euro as a lower-yield alternative. Initial Jobless Claims: While often viewed weekly, the monthly average could reveal structural labor market resilience. A rising trend may weaken the dollar, reinforcing EUR gains as expectations for interest rate cuts grow. 6. Strategy Alignment by Trading Style Each indicator offers unique insights depending on your approach to market participation: Day Traders: Focus on the immediacy of daily indicators like Housing Starts, Consumer Sentiment, and Housing Price Index. Swing Traders: Leverage weekly indicators like Crude Oil Prices and Continuing Claims to ride mid-term moves. Position Traders: Watch longer-term data such as Industrial Production and M2 Velocity. 7. Risk Management Currency futures provide access to high leverage and broad macro exposure. With that comes responsibility. Traders must actively manage position sizing, volatility exposure, and stop placement. Economic indicators inform price movement probabilities—not certainties—making risk protocols just as essential as trade entries. 8. Conclusion Euro FX Futures are shaped by a deep web of macroeconomic forces. From Consumer Sentiment and Oil Prices to Industrial Production and Money Velocity, each indicator tells part of the story behind Euro FX movement. Thanks to machine learning, we’ve spotlighted the most impactful data across timeframes, offering traders a framework to align their approach with the heartbeat of the market. As we continue the "Behind the Curtain" series, stay tuned for future editions uncovering the hidden economic forces behind other major futures markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by traddictiv
DOGS Main Trend. Tactics of Working on Risky Crypto 03 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Tactics of working on super-risky cryptocurrencies of low liquidity, which are always sold (without loading the glass), by the creators of “nothing”. In order to increase sales, of course, when they rationally reverse the trend and make pumps at a large % and marketing positive news "have time to buy". On such assets with such liquidity, “killed faith” (at the moment), and control of the emission in “one hand” it is not difficult. Something like in BabyDOGE. On such assets you should always remember: 1️⃣ allocate a certain amount for work in general on such assets from the deposit as a whole. 2️⃣ distribute money (potential reversal and decline zones) from this allocated amount to each similar asset in advance. 3️⃣ diversify similar assets themselves (5-10 cryptocurrencies), understanding that sooner or later they will scam. The scam of one of them should not be reflected significantly on the balance of the pump/dump group of low liquidity. It is impossible to guess everything that does not depend on you, and it is not necessary. Your miscalculations (what does not depend on you) are smoothed out by your initial trading plan and risk control, that is, money management (money management). 4️⃣ Set adequate goals. Part of the position locally trade 40-80% (not necessary, but this sometimes reduces the risk). 5️⃣ Work with trigger orders and lower them if they did not work and the price falls. 6️⃣ Remember that in consolidation and cut zones in assets of such liquidity, stops are always knocked out, so the size of the stop does not really matter. It will be knocked out, especially before the reversal. 7️⃣ Before the reversal of the secondary trend, as a rule, they first do a “hamster pump” by a conditionally significant %, when everyone is "tired of waiting". They absorb all sales. Then the main pumping without passengers by a very large % takes place to form a distribution zone. As a rule, it will be lower than the pump highs, that is, in the zone when they are not afraid to buy, but believe that after a large pump, the highs will be overcome significantly. 8️⃣ Remember that assets of such liquidity decrease after listings or highs by: a) active hype, bull market -50-70% b) secondary trend without extraordinary events -90-93% c) cycle change -96-98% or scam, if it is a 1-2 cycle project (there is no point in supporting the legend, how it is easier to make a candy wrapper from scratch without believing holders with coins). 9️⃣In the capitulation zone, there can be several of them depending on the trend of the market as a whole and rationality, the asset is of no interest to anyone. Everyone gets the impression that everything is a scam. That is, on the contrary, you need to collect the asset, observing money management, that is, your initial distribution of money and the risk that you agreed with in advance. As a rule, in such zones people "give up" and abandon their earlier vision. 🔟 After the entire position is set (pre-planned, according to your money management), stop and do not get stuck in the market and news noise. Wait for your first goals. Remember, people always buy expensive, and refuse to buy cheap ("it's a scam", they try to "catch the bottom"), when "the Internet is not buzzing". This all happens because there is no vision, and as a consequence, no tactics of work and risk control . Many want to guess the “bottom”, or “maximums”, and refuse to sell when they are reached. The first and second are not conditionally available, on assets of such liquidity and emission control. But, there are probabilities that you can operate and earn on this, without getting stuck in the market noise. And also in the opinions of the majority (inclination to the dominant opinion and rejection of your plan and risk control), from which you must fence yourself off. Most people, immersed in market noise and the opinions of others , choose for themselves the price movement, which is beneficial to them at the moment , and to which they are inclined, but do not provide themselves with the tactics of work. This is a key mistake, and the main manipulation that the conditional manipulator achieves, who, by the way, is sometimes not on the asset, to form an opinion and, as a consequence, the actions of the majority. Because, in essence, most people do not have the tactics of work. Where the news FUD (inclination to the dominant opinion), “market noise” (cutting zones and collecting liquidity), the opinion of the majority, is directed, that is what they are inclined to. When the price goes in the other direction, it is disappointment. If these are futures — liquidation of the position. Zeroing out due to greed. If this is spot — "proud random holders" , without the ability to average the position (no money), to reduce the average price of the position set as a whole, and as a result increase the % of profit in the future. A trading plan and risk control are the basis, not guessing the price movement. If you do not have the first “two whales” of trading in your arsenal, then you have nothing. It doesn't matter how much you guess the potential movement, as the outcome of such practice is always the same, and it is not comforting.
Education
by SpartaBTC
10
About the Volume OBV indicator... Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- I think TradingView is attractive because users can create charts as they want. However, since the number of indicators that can be added to the chart is limited depending on the plan, you have to add indicators that fit your plan. As a result, I ended up integrating multiple indicators into one indicator. - The HA-MS indicator in this chart is a public indicator. If you search the Internet, you can find detailed explanations on how to interpret the OBV indicator. I expressed it as follows to make this interpretation method more realistic. The body color of the candlestick is indicated by the 4-stage OBV indicator. The OBV indicator is distinguished in the same way as the Price Channel indicator. You can interpret it like the Bollinger Band. That is, if the middle line that divides 2 and 3 rises by more than 3, you can interpret that the buying force is increasing. 1: It means below the lower line of the Price Channel and is indicated in dark red. If you enter this section, there is a high possibility of a sharp decline. You should check the support and resistance points because it is likely to stop falling soon and rise to 2. 2: It means between the lower line and the middle line of the Price Channel and is indicated in red. This section is likely to show a weak downward sideways movement. Therefore, if it rises from 1->2, there is a possibility of a short rise. However, if it fails to rise to 3, it is likely to fall back to 1, so it is recommended to make short trades. 3: It means between the middle line and the upper line of the Price Channel and is displayed in green. This section is likely to show a weak upward sideways movement. If it rises from 2 -> 3 and shows a sideways movement, you should focus on finding a buying point. 4: It means above the upper line of the Price Channel and is displayed in dark green. If it enters this section, there is a high possibility of a sharp rise. Since it is likely to stop rising soon and fall to 3, you should check the support and resistance points. - What we should pay attention to is when it changes from 1 -> 2, 4 -> 3. As explained above, 1 is a section located below the lower line of the Price Channel, so there is a high possibility of a sharp fall. 4 is a section located above the upper line of the Price Channel, so there is a high possibility of a sharp rise. Therefore, you can proceed with an aggressive buy when it changes from 1 -> 2, and you can proceed with a sell when it changes from 4 -> 3. In the case of futures, it can be used as reference information for entering and liquidating LONG and SHORT positions. - They say that the only things you need on a chart are price and trading volume. However, it is not easy to interpret this in reality. To compensate for this, we hid the colors of the existing candles and displayed them in 4 stages of OBV so that you can intuitively see which stage the current price is at. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
Hidden Forces: Decoding Buyer & Seller Activity on ChartsTotal Volume vs. Volume Delta: The total volume on the chart includes both buys and sells, making it less useful for analysis. Volume Delta, however, shows whether buyers or sellers dominated within a candle. A green Delta candle means more aggressive retail buying; a red one means more retail selling. This helps analyze market sentiment beyond price movement.
 Price & Delta Relationships: 1. Price and Delta move together → Organic movement, likely driven by retail. 2. Delta moves, but price doesn’t → Retail is heavily biased in one direction, absorbing limit orders. Possible smart money trap. 3. Price moves, but Delta doesn’t → Retail didn’t participate in the move. Lack of belief or failed market-making attempt. 4. Price moves against Delta → Strong indication of market manipulation. Large players using aggressive strategies against retail.
 Market Manipulation & Smart Money: * Whales leverage retail psychology and order flow to position themselves. * Retail often gets caught in fake moves, unknowingly providing liquidity to big players. Final Thought: By analyzing Delta and price movement together, we can spot hidden large buyers and sellers and understand market dynamics beyond surface-level price action.
Education
by supremum_ar
How to Actually Do Backtesting?Welcome back guys, I’m Skeptic! Today, I’m gonna break down one of the most important and fundamental skills every trader needs: Backtesting . Backtesting is the very first step on your trading journey and probably the most crucial one. It’s all about putting your theoretical knowledge and trading plan to the test by evaluating them against historical market data. The goal? To see whether your strategy actually works — with what win rate, R/R ratio , and more. But here’s the problem: many traders do it wrong. They end up getting unreliable results, which leads to self-doubt when it comes to forward testing. The real issue is not your strategy but how you conduct your backtest. Let’s dive into the complete process! 💪 🛠️ Tools You Need To start backtesting, you’ll need some software that supports the replay feature, allowing you to move through historical data as if it were live. The best platforms for this are TradingView and MetaTrader . Personally, I use TradingView because it’s super intuitive and has great backtesting capabilities. Also, make sure to choose appropriate timeframes for backtesting that align with your strategy. 🕰️ Choosing Market Conditions: You need to backtest your strategy in all types of market conditions: Uptrend Downtrend Range-bound High Volatility 🚀 Step-by-Step Backtesting 1.Choose the Timeframe: Make sure your backtesting timeframe matches your strategy’s timeframe. For example, if your strategy works on the 4H chart, don’t backtest on the 1H chart. 2.Select Your Strategy: Stick to your written trading plan without improvising. 3.Pick the Asset Pair: Test on at least three different pairs or assets (e.g., EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/NZD) to get diverse results. 4.Define Entry and Exit Rules: Clearly specify your entry, stop loss, and target levels. Never change these rules mid-backtest, even if it seems illogical. In real trading, you won’t have the luxury of endless contemplation. 🎯 Running the Backtest Use the Replay Tool to move through historical data. Never peek at the future price movement. If you accidentally see it, restart from a different point. Open a minimum of 30 positions for each market condition (e.g., uptrend, downtrend, range). Record each trade in a spreadsheet (Excel, Google Sheets, etc.) with the following columns: Date Time Entry strategy Stop loss Target Result (profit/loss as R/R ratio) Exit time 📊 Analyzing Your Results After completing your backtest, it’s time to analyze the data. Key metrics to focus on include: R/R Ratio Win Rate (%) Drawdown (%) Losing Streaks Position Frequency 🚩 Common Mistakes to Avoid Inconsistent Strategy: Changing your rules during backtesting is a no-go. Stick to the plan. Incomplete Testing: Don’t cut corners and always aim for a substantial number of trades. Ignoring Market Conditions: Make sure your strategy is tested in all four market scenarios. Lack of Patience: Just because the first few trades are losses doesn’t mean the strategy is a failure. Sometimes, a losing streak can be followed by a winning trade that covers it all. 💡 Conclusion Backtesting is the beating heart of any trader’s skill set. It builds confidence and lays the foundation for a profitable strategy. If you found this tutorial helpful, give it a boost and share it with your fellow traders. Let’s grow together, not alone! And as Freddie Mercury once said: We are the champions, my friends! :)🏆 Happy trading, and see you in the next analysis! 💪🔥
Education
by SkepticWise
11
Revenge Trading vs. Roaring Comeback: How to Tell the Difference“I’m going to get even with the market and I’m going to get even today!” We’ve all been there. You take a loss—maybe a small one, maybe an account-crushing one—and something inside you snaps. Logic leaves the chat, and a new trader takes over: the vengeful, angry version of you who’s out to "get back" at the market. Welcome to the world of revenge trading, where decisions are fueled by frustration, and the market does what it always does: punishes impatient and emotional traders. But what if there’s a better way? What if instead of spiraling into self-destruction, you could channel that energy into a thoughtful and strategic comeback? That’s the difference between revenge trading and a true trader’s rebound. Grab your hot coffee and let’s talk about it. 💥 Revenge Trading: The Fastest Way to Financial Self-Sabotage Revenge trading isn’t a trading strategy—it’s an emotional response masquerading as a quick-witted reaction. The thought process goes like this: "I just lost money. I need to make it back—fast." So you double down, size up, stretch out the leverage ratio and ignore your usual risk management rules. Maybe you trade assets you don’t even understand because the price looks juicy. Maybe you jump into a leveraged position without a stop loss because, hey, you’re in it to win it. What could go wrong? Everything. Everything can go wrong. Revenge trading is the financial equivalent of trying to punch the ocean. The market doesn’t care that you’re mad. It doesn’t owe you a winning trade. And when you start making impulsive decisions, the only thing that may get hurt is your trading mindset. 📢 Signs You’re Revenge Trading You’re taking trades you wouldn’t normally take. You’re increasing position sizes irrationally. You’re ditching risk management (stop losses, position sizing, logic, etc.). You feel desperate to "make it back"—right now. You’re ignoring your trading plan, assuming you had one to begin with. Recognizing these signs is the first step to stopping the cycle. But avoiding revenge trading is only half of the battle—you need to know how to stage a real comeback. 🦁 Staging the Roaring Comeback A roaring comeback isn’t about making back your losses in one dramatic trade. It’s about recalibrating, reassessing, and regaining control. Here’s how traders who actually recover from losses do it: 📌 Recognize the Signs Early If your heart rate spikes and your fingers are itching to “fix” a bad trade immediately, stop. That’s not a setup. That’s an emotional reaction. 📌 Set Daily Loss Limits If you hit your max loss for the day, you’re done. No exceptions. Your best decision at that point is to fight another day with a clear head. 📌 Step Away from the Screens Revenge trading thrives on impulsivity, and the best way to kill that impulse is to take a break. Go outside. Breathe. The market isn’t going anywhere. Now touch that grass. 📌 Post-Loss Review: What Actually Happened? Was the loss due to a bad strategy, poor execution, or just market randomness? Pull up your trading journal ( you do keep one, right ?) and break it down. 📌 Reaffirm Your Strategy (Tweak if Necessary) If your loss came from a solid trade setup that just didn’t work, then there’s nothing to change. If it came from a mistake, figure out how to prevent that mistake from repeating. 📌 Reduce Risk for the Next Trades After a loss, the worst thing you can do is over-leverage. Instead, cut your position size and take smaller, high-probability trades to rebuild confidence. Howard Marks, a firm believer in market psychology, always reminds investors that the biggest risk is emotional overreaction. Stay disciplined. 📌 Trust the Process The best traders understand that one trade does not define them. They trust their system, stick to their edge, and take losses as part of the game. Trading is a long-term play, not a single battle to be won or lost. 💚 Turning Losses into Lessons Losses are tuition fees for the market’s greatest lessons. Every great trader has taken hits—what separates them from the rest is how they respond. The thing is this can happen anywhere—from an ill-fated trade in the crypto market (it’s wild out there) to an account-battering reaction to anything that pops out of the earnings calendar . How do you deal with a trading loss? And when’s the last time you had to stiffen that upper lip and make your comeback? Share your experience in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
11