Trade Execution on EURNZD|PRZ Area of Interest Simplified I hope you got value from the video, more to come, and wishing you all a more profitable trading opportunity.
Harmonic Patterns
What Happened Thanks To Elections
Bitcoin recently hit a new all-time high after the election of pro-crypto President Donald Trump. This surge followed a period of volatility and market anticipation around the election.
On October 31st, Bitcoin showed signs of weakness after a pre-election price spike, moving down toward a CME gap. This gap, a price difference created between CME’s Friday close and Sunday open, often acts as a magnet for price movement since Bitcoin trades continuously, unlike traditional markets. As expected, Bitcoin filled this CME gap by November 4th and formed a hammer candle pattern, typically suggesting a potential price reversal and momentum shift.
In the days leading up to the election, buyers began taking control around the 100 EMA (gray line), signaling potential upward movement. This initial buying pressure hinted at a bullish outlook, likely tied to expectations surrounding Trump’s favorable stance toward cryptocurrency.
Finally, on November 5th, after Trump’s win was confirmed, Bitcoin’s price saw a significant jump, reaching a new all-time high. This response reflected strong market optimism about potential crypto-friendly policies and added momentum for Bitcoin as a favored asset among investors.
Swallow Team
Whyi can say "Pivot by morning" at R6I wanted to explain to people how this is possible... notice how todays pivots are calculated with yesterday in mind in such a way to get us to pivot easily.
I have said this, in similar situations many times, so far it has always worked.
This also means we don't have to only short from R6 (or maybe even R10 (TSLA) )... we can go higher because there is room now.
Smart Money Trading concepts 101🔸The Smart Money Trading concept, often used in Forex and stock trading, revolves around the idea of tracking the moves made by major institutional players (like banks, hedge funds, and large financial institutions) rather than retail investors. Smart money strategies aim to identify and follow the price action patterns that large investors create, as these institutions often have access to more market-moving information and capital than individual traders.
🔸A critical part of this approach is understanding market structure, which includes concepts like Higher Highs (HH) and Lower Lows (LL). These patterns help traders determine the current trend direction and potential reversals, which can inform trading decisions.
Here's how these concepts fit into the Smart Money Trading framework:
1. Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) in an Uptrend
▪️When the market is in an uptrend, it typically forms a series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows:
Higher High (HH): Each new peak in the price is higher than the previous peak.
Higher Low (HL): Each new low is also higher than the previous low.
▪️This pattern signifies strong buying interest, indicating that smart money may be accumulating positions in anticipation of further price increases.
▪️Traders look for breakouts beyond previous highs, as it often signifies a continuation of the uptrend.
▪️If the price breaks a recent Higher Low, it may indicate potential weakness and a possible trend reversal.
2. Lower Lows (LL) and Lower Highs (LH) in a Downtrend
▪️In a downtrend, the market structure often forms Lower Lows and Lower Highs:
Lower Low (LL): Each new low is lower than the previous low.
Lower High (LH): Each high in the price action is also lower than the previous high.
▪️This pattern signals that selling pressure is dominant, suggesting that institutional investors might be offloading positions.
▪️Traders watch for prices to break the most recent Lower High for potential continuation signals in the downtrend.
▪️If the price breaks above the most recent Lower High, it can indicate that the trend may be weakening, signaling a potential reversal or entry opportunity.
3. Using HH and LL to Spot Trend Reversals
▪️Trend Reversal: When a series of HH and HL in an uptrend shifts to LH and LL (or vice versa), it often signals that a reversal is underway.
▪️Smart Money traders use these shifts to spot market traps where retail traders might be misled, allowing them to capitalize on new trend directions as they unfold.
4. Smart Money Concepts in Action: Liquidity and Price Action
▪️Large players need liquidity to execute significant trades without causing excessive slippage (or price movement). This liquidity often exists near recent highs and lows.
▪️By analyzing HH, HL, LH, and LL patterns, smart money traders can identify areas of liquidity where institutions might step in.
▪️For example, a series of HHs might attract retail buyers, providing liquidity for smart money to enter or exit positions.
5. Application in Trading
▪️By following HH and LL patterns, traders can align their positions with smart money rather than getting caught in fakeouts or market traps.
▪️Traders often combine these patterns with other indicators (like volume, order blocks, or support and resistance) to confirm the presence of institutional involvement.
🔸The Smart Money approach relies heavily on understanding and interpreting these HH and LL structures to trade in sync with the institutions, avoiding common pitfalls that trap many retail traders.
Weekly performance Weekly recap :
Gold +2% Win
NASQ +1% Win
EURUSD +2%
US30 -1% Loss
NZDJPY Trade Open
GBJPY +1% Win
GBPCAD 4h Short - 1% Loss
GBPCAD 15min Long +2% Win
USDJPY -1% Loss
AUDJPY -1% Loss
USDCAD -1% Loss
P & L : +2%
HOW TO CACULATE PIPS FOR XAUUSD (GOLD)Hello trader , In this video i show you how you can calculate pips for Xauusd (Gold) using long position and short position tool. Calculating Gold pips is different from calculating currency pairs pips . Remember to like and and share your thought on comment !
Take a look at this strategy"Video Idea: A complete beginner-to-pro guide on using TradingView's advanced charting tools, technical indicators, and customizable features for market analysis. The video will cover setting up your workspace, reading charts, creating trading strategies, and navigating the social community. Perfect for traders looking to maximize their TradingView experience!"
"Video Idea: A complete beginner-to-pro guide on using TradingView's advanced charting tools, technical indicators, and customizable features for market analysis. The video will cover setting up your workspace, reading charts, creating trading strategies, and navigating the social community. Perfect for traders looking to maximize their TradingView experience!"
Fibonacci Retracements: Finding Key Levels the Easy WayIn this video, I’ll walk you through how I use Fibonacci retracements to spot those key pullback levels where price might bounce and keep trending. It all comes from an old-school math genius named Leonardo of Pisa (aka Fibonacci), but don’t worry – no crazy math here, just practical trading tools.
The main levels I focus on? 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. IF price holds at one of these levels, THEN it’s a good sign the trend could keep going. IF NOT, THEN I stay ready for a deeper pullback. Using this tool helps me stay ahead and manage trades with more confidence.
Your Turn:
Here’s a fun exercise – draw Fibonacci retracements on different timeframes, from the weekly all the way down to the 5-minute chart. Check how the levels overlap or line up. Those overlaps, or confluences, are where some of the best trades happen!
If this clicks with you, hit like, drop a comment, or follow – I’ll keep sharing more tips to help you crush the markets!
Mindbloome Trading
Trade What You See
HOW TO CONNECT A BROKER WITH TRADINGVIEWHere on this video i show you how you can connect a broker with tradingview and trade inside tradingview so you can monitor your trade in one place . I show you how to login and set up trade to create limit order or execute market immediately.
HOW TO USE RECTANGLE CHAT PATTERNHere on this video i show you how you can use rectangle chat pattern and trade so you can maximize your profit so it is very simple to use and you can apply it when price break above or below rectangle. Use money management
Top Down Analysis 101: Getting started📖 Forex Top-Down Technical Analysis
🔸Top-down technical analysis is a method used by traders to examine the Forex market starting from higher time frames and gradually zooming into smaller ones. 🔸This approach helps traders get a comprehensive view of the market, starting from the broader trend on long-term charts and then analyzing intermediate and short-term charts to find precise entry and exit points.
📩 Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of how top-down analysis works in Forex trading:
1. Start with Higher Time Frames
🔸Begin by analyzing the market on the higher time frames to understand the dominant trend. Typically, traders start from the Monthly (M), Weekly (W), or Daily (D) charts.
🔸Monthly Time Frame: The monthly chart provides a bird’s-eye view of long-term trends and key levels of support/resistance. You can observe the major direction of the market, whether it is trending up, down, or moving sideways. This is where traders establish the broader market context.
🔸Weekly Time Frame: Moving down to the weekly chart helps to refine the broader trend you’ve identified on the monthly chart. It reveals more intermediate levels of support and resistance, trend lines, and key price action patterns that can influence the market over a few weeks.
🔸Daily Time Frame: The daily chart helps traders zoom in further to find relevant market structures, patterns, and price movements. It also helps you evaluate the short-term trend while keeping the long-term trend in mind.
📩At this stage, traders may look for things like:
🔸Trend Direction: Is the market in an uptrend, downtrend, or range-bound (consolidation)?
🔸Support and Resistance Levels: Key horizontal levels where price has previously reacted.
🔸Price Action Patterns: Candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing patterns, pin bars) that indicate potential reversals or continuations.
2. Analyze Intermediate Time Frames
🔸After understanding the overall trend on the higher time frames, move to intermediate time frames like the 4-Hour (H4) or 1-Hour (H1) charts. These time frames give you a clearer picture of more recent price action and finer details for your analysis.
🔸Identify the Current Market Structure: Look for things like the formation of higher highs and higher lows (indicating an uptrend) or lower highs and lower lows (indicating a downtrend).
🔸Find Consolidation Areas or Breakouts: These time frames are useful for spotting breakouts or consolidations that may indicate the start of a new move.
🔸Refine Support/Resistance Zones: Draw closer support/resistance levels that are relevant to the current price action.
🔸This step helps you align your understanding of the intermediate trend with the higher time frame trend.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
SSEE Framework for successful Trading I want to present you to the 'SSEE' framework today, . This framework is intended for all users, from novices just beginning their journey to seasoned experts seeking to improve their tactics. Three basic steps are involved: ,Self-awareness, Story, Analyze , execute, and Emotional Control. Let's examine each component in turn:
self-awareness:
Self awareness is very important just link finding a trading style that fits your personality, risk tolerance, and financial objectives is the first step towards becoming a successful trader. This encompasses your emotional ease in taking chances, your degree of patience, and the amount of time you dedicate to trading.
Analyzing possible strategies comes next after determining your trading style. Regardless of your preference for technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or a mix of the two, you need to be well-versed in the tactics you choose to use.
Lastly, assess both yourself and the tactics you have selected to develop a solid trading plan. What you trade, when you enter and exit transactions, and the standards you use to make decisions should all be part of your trading plan. Recall that following a plan rather than making exact forecasts is the aim.
Look for Story :
Trends : Identify whether the stock is in an uptrend, downtrend, or sideways movement. Trends can indicate investor sentiment and potential future movements.
Support and Resistance : Look for levels where the stock has historically reversed direction (support) or faced selling pressure (resistance). These can signify psychological barriers for investors.
Volume : Analyze trading volume in conjunction with price movements. Rising prices on increasing volume might suggest strong buying interest, while price increases on low volume could indicate a lack of conviction.
Chart Patterns: Recognize common patterns like head and shoulders, triangles, or flags. Each pattern can suggest potential future movements based on historical behavior.
Indicators: Use technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD) to assess momentum, overbought or oversold conditions, and potential reversals.
Time Frames: Consider different time frames (daily, weekly, monthly) to get a broader context of the stock’s performance.
Events and Catalysts: Look for spikes or drops in price that coincide with news events or earnings reports. These can help explain the "story" behind sudden movements.
By synthesizing these elements, you can create a narrative that explains the stock's historical performance and potential future directions.
Plan:
Define Your Goals
Investment Horizon: Decide if you're investing for the short term, medium term, or long term.
Risk Tolerance: Assess how much risk you’re willing to take. This will influence your stock selection.
2. Conduct Research
Fundamental Analysis: Look at company financials, earnings reports, industry trends, and economic indicators.
Technical Analysis: Analyze charts, trends, and indicators to identify entry and exit points.
3. Develop a Strategy
Stock Selection: Based on your research, choose stocks that align with your goals and risk tolerance.
Diversification: Spread your investments across different sectors to mitigate risk.
4. Create a Buy/Sell Plan
Entry Points: Determine your buying price and criteria for entry based on technical signals or fundamental reasons.
Exit Points: Set profit targets and stop-loss levels to protect your investment and lock in gains.
5. Execute the Trades
Use a brokerage platform to buy your selected stocks at your planned entry points.
Monitor the trades and overall market conditions.
6. Monitor and Adjust
Regularly review your portfolio’s performance and market conditions.
Be ready to adjust your strategy if new information or trends emerge.
7. Stay Disciplined
Stick to your plan and avoid emotional trading decisions.
Reassess your goals periodically and make necessary adjustments to your strategy.
8. Educate Yourself
Continuously learn about the market, new strategies, and economic developments.
By following this structured approach, you can execute a well-thought-out plan in the stock market. Would you like more details on any specific step?
E xecute :
Step-by-Step Execution
Set Up Your Trading Account
Choose a reputable brokerage platform that aligns with your trading style and needs (e.g., commissions, tools, research).
Ensure your account is funded.
Finalize Your Research
Review your selected stocks, confirming they meet your criteria based on both fundamental and technical analysis.
Check for any recent news or events that could impact stock performance.
Create a Watchlist
Compile a list of stocks you are interested in, along with your entry points and target prices.
Place Orders
Market Orders: Buy stocks at the current market price. Use this for quicker executions but be aware of price fluctuations.
Limit Orders: Set a specific price at which you want to buy or sell. This helps control the price you pay but may not execute if the price doesn’t reach your limit.
Implement Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Orders
Set stop-loss orders to automatically sell if the stock price falls to a certain level, protecting your investment.
Set take-profit orders to secure gains at predefined price targets.
Monitor Your Investments
Regularly check the performance of your stocks and overall market conditions.
Stay informed about news that may affect your investments.
Adjust Your Strategy as Needed
If a stock isn’t performing as expected, reassess your reasons for holding it.
Be ready to sell or adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels based on market conditions.
Review and Reflect
After a set period, review the performance of your trades. Analyze what worked and what didn’t.
Use these insights to refine your strategy for future trades.
Stay Disciplined
Stick to your plan and avoid making impulsive decisions based on market noise.
Keep emotions in check and follow your predetermined strategy.
Emotional Control:
Set Clear Goals
Define your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Having clear goals can help you stay focused and reduce anxiety.
2. Develop a Trading Plan
Create a structured trading plan that includes entry and exit strategies, risk management, and criteria for buying and selling. Stick to this plan to avoid emotional decisions.
3. Practice Mindfulness
Use techniques like meditation or deep breathing to stay calm and centered. Mindfulness can help you recognize emotional triggers and respond more thoughtfully.
4. Limit Exposure to Market Noise
Reduce the amount of news and social media you consume related to the stock market. Constant updates can heighten anxiety and lead to impulsive decisions.
5. Keep a Trading Journal
Document your trades, including your thought process and emotions at the time. Reflecting on your experiences can help you identify patterns and improve future decision-making.
6. Manage Risk
Use stop-loss orders and diversify your portfolio to minimize potential losses. Knowing you have a plan in place can alleviate stress and help you stay composed.
7. Accept Losses
Understand that losses are a natural part of trading. Accepting this can help reduce the fear of losing and prevent you from making desperate trades.
8. Stay Disciplined
Commit to your trading plan and avoid deviating from it due to emotions. Stick to your strategy, even during market volatility.
9. Take Breaks
Step away from the screens when feeling overwhelmed or overly emotional. Taking breaks can provide perspective and help clear your mind.
10. Seek Support
Consider discussing your experiences with other traders or joining a community. Sharing your thoughts and challenges can provide valuable insights and emotional relief.
11. Focus on the Process, Not Just Outcomes
Concentrate on following your plan rather than fixating on short-term gains or losses. This shift in focus can help reduce emotional strain.
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: US Election Oil Play1. Introduction
The 2024 US Presidential Election could have a significant impact on global markets, especially energy sectors like crude oil. With key policies and geopolitical tensions hinging on the outcome, many traders are eyeing a potential price surge in WTI Crude Oil futures. Our prior article (linked below) presented a potential opportunity for crude oil prices to rise by over 40% within a year following the election. This could bring WTI Crude Oil Futures (CLZ2025) from its current price of 67.80 to around 94.92.
To capitalize on this potential opportunity, a strategic options play can be used to leverage this potential move, providing not only a chance to profit from a bullish breakout but also some protection against downside risk. This article explores a Breakout Booster Play using options on the December 2025 WTI Crude Oil futures contract (CLZ2025), designed to benefit from a possible post-election oil price surge.
2. Technical Overview
In analyzing the December 2025 WTI Crude Oil Futures (CLZ2025), a strong support level is identified. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligns perfectly with a UFO support zone at 55.62, suggesting a significant area where buying interest could emerge if prices fall to this level.
The current price of CLZ2025 is 67.80, and the technical analysis points to the possibility of a substantial bullish move following the 2024 US Presidential Election. The projected price increase of 40% could push crude oil prices up to 94.92 over the next year. However, even a more conservative target of 20% (around 81.36) could offer considerable upside potential.
This analysis provides the foundation for constructing an options strategy that not only takes advantage of the potential upside but also offers a buffer zone against downside risk by capitalizing on key support levels.
3. The Options Strategy
The options strategy we'll use here is a Breakout Booster Play designed to take advantage of the expected rise in crude oil prices. Here's how the strategy is constructed:
1. Sell 2 Puts at the 55 Strike:
Expiring on November 17, 2025, these puts are sold to collect a premium of approximately 3.27 points per contract.
By selling 2 puts, we collect a total of 6.54 points.
This creates a buffer zone, allowing us to take on some downside risk while still profiting if prices remain above 55.
2. Buy 1 Call at the 71 Strike:
Also expiring on November 17, 2025, the call is purchased for 6.28 points.
This call gives us the potential for unlimited upside if crude oil prices rise above 71.
Net Cost: The net cost of this strategy is minimal, with the collected premium from the puts (6.54) offsetting most of the cost of the call (6.28). The result is a credit of 0.26 points, meaning the trader gets paid to enter this position.
Break-Even Points:
The position would lose money only if crude oil falls below 54.87 (factoring in the premium collected).
Profit potential becomes significant if crude oil rises above 71, with large gains expected if the projected move to 81.36 or 94.92 materializes.
This strategy effectively positions the trader to profit from an upward breakout while maintaining a buffer against downside risk. If crude oil drops, losses are limited unless it falls below 54.87, at which point the trader would be required to take delivery of 2 crude oil futures contracts (long).
4. Profit and Risk Analysis
Profit Potential:
The key advantage of this options strategy is its profit potential on the upside. If crude oil prices rise above 71, the purchased call will start gaining value significantly.
If crude oil reaches 94.92 (a 40% increase from the current price), the long call will be deep in the money, resulting in substantial profits.
Even if the price rises more conservatively to 81.36 (a 20% increase), the strategy still allows for meaningful gains as the call appreciates.
Since the net entry cost is essentially zero (with a small credit of 0.26 points), the potential profit is high, and it becomes especially powerful above 71, with unlimited upside.
Risk Management:
This strategy comes with a 19% buffer before any losses occur at expiration, as the break-even point is 54.87. However, it is important to note that if the trade is closed before expiration, losses could be realized if crude oil prices have dropped, even if the price is above 55.
Risk Pre-Expiration: If crude oil prices fall sharply, especially before expiration, the trader could face significant losses. The risk is theoretically unlimited because, as the market moves against the sold puts, their value could rise dramatically. If a trader needs to close the position early, those puts could be worth significantly more than the premium initially collected, resulting in losses.
Potential Margin Calls: If crude oil drops far enough, the trader may receive a margin call on the short puts. This could happen well before the price reaches 54.87, depending on the speed and size of the drop. If not managed properly, this could force the trader to close the position at a significant loss.
While there is a built-in buffer, this trade requires active monitoring, particularly if crude oil prices start to decline. Risk management techniques, such as stop-loss orders, rolling options, or hedging, should be considered to mitigate losses in case the market moves unexpectedly.
5. Contract Specs and Margins
WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL)
Tick Size: The minimum price fluctuation is 0.01 per barrel.
Tick Value: Each 0.01 movement equals $10 per contract.
Margin Requirement: Approximately $6,100 per contract (subject to change based on market volatility).
Micro Crude Oil Futures (MCL)
Tick Value: Each 0.01 movement equals $1 per contract.
Margin Requirement: Approximately $610 per contract, offering a lower capital requirement for smaller positions.
Why Mention Both?
Traders with larger capital allocations may prefer using standard WTI Crude Oil futures contracts, given their greater exposure and tick value. However, for smaller or more conservative traders, Micro Crude Oil Futures (MCL) provide a more accessible way to enter the market while maintaining the same exposure ratios in a smaller size.
6. Summary and Conclusion
This options strategy provides a powerful way to capitalize on a potential post-election rally in crude oil prices, while offering downside protection. The combination of selling 2 puts at the 55 strike and buying 1 call at the 71 strike, all expiring on November 17, 2025, creates a structured approach to profit from a bullish breakout.
With current analysis based on machine learning suggesting a potential 40% increase in crude oil prices over the next year, the long call offers unlimited profit potential above 71. At the same time, the sale of the puts at the 55 strike gives the strategy a 19% buffer, with the break-even point at expiration being 54.87.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Chart Patterns and Key Signals in Live TradingChart Patterns and Key Signals in Live Trading
Chart patterns are powerful tools used by traders to predict future price movements. These patterns emerge from the price action on a chart and provide visual signals that help traders make informed decisions. Understanding and recognizing these patterns in live trading can significantly improve your ability to forecast potential price trends and execute successful trades.
What are Chart Patterns?
Chart patterns form when price movements of a security, such as a stock or currency pair, follow a recognizable formation or trend on a price chart. These patterns represent the collective sentiment of buyers and sellers, indicating periods of consolidation, continuation, or reversal. Traders use these patterns to anticipate where prices may move next and to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Key Types of Chart Patterns
Chart patterns can be categorized into two main types:
1. Reversal Patterns: These indicate that the current trend is likely to reverse.
2. Continuation Patterns: These suggest that the current trend will continue after a brief pause.
Common Reversal Patterns
Head and Shoulders
Description: The head and shoulders pattern signals a trend reversal. It has three peaks: a higher peak (the head) between two lower peaks (the shoulders). The neckline connects the lows between the two shoulders.
What to Look For:
Uptrend before formation: This pattern is more reliable if it follows a strong uptrend.
Break of the neckline: The trend reversal is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline, indicating a bearish move.
Live Trading Tip: Wait for the price to break the neckline and retest it before entering a short position to reduce false signals.
Double Top:
Description: A bearish reversal pattern that forms after an uptrend, consisting of two peaks at roughly the same level.
What to Look For:
Resistance level: The two peaks touch a resistance level but fail to break through.
Neckline break: The trend reversal is confirmed when the price breaks below the support level (neckline) between the two peaks.
Live Trading Tip: Enter a short trade after the price breaks below the neckline and possibly retests the support as resistance.
Double Bottom:
Description: A bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend, consisting of two troughs at roughly the same level.
What to Look For:
Support level: The two bottoms touch a support level but fail to break below.
Neckline break: The reversal is confirmed when the price breaks above the resistance level (neckline) between the two troughs.
Live Trading Tip: Enter a long trade after the price breaks above the neckline and retests it as support.
Common Continuation Patterns
Triangles
Symmetrical Triangle:
Description: A continuation pattern characterized by converging trendlines, where the highs and lows converge toward each other.
What to Look For:
Breakout: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out of the triangle, either upward or downward, signaling a continuation of the previous trend.
Live Trading Tip: Watch for increased volume during the breakout to confirm its validity. Enter the trade in the direction of the breakout.
Ascending Triangle:
Description: A bullish continuation pattern with a horizontal resistance line and an upward-sloping support line.
What to Look For:
Resistance breakout: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks above the resistance level, signaling a continuation of the upward trend.
Live Trading Tip: Enter a long trade once the price breaks the resistance and volume spikes, indicating strong buying interest.
Flags and Pennants
Flag:
Description: A continuation pattern that looks like a small rectangular consolidation phase after a strong price movement.
What to Look For:
Strong trend: The flag forms after a sharp price move, followed by a consolidation phase.
Breakout: A breakout from the flag pattern confirms the continuation of the previous trend.
Live Trading Tip: Enter the trade in the direction of the breakout, especially if accompanied by an increase in volume.
Pennant:
Description: Similar to the flag, but the consolidation phase forms a small symmetrical triangle instead of a rectangle.
What to Look For:
Strong trend: A pennant forms after a sharp move, followed by price consolidation.
Breakout: The breakout signals a continuation of the previous trend.
Live Trading Tip: Trade in the direction of the breakout and ensure there’s an uptick in volume for confirmation.
Wedges
Rising Wedge:
Description: A bearish continuation or reversal pattern where the price forms higher highs and higher lows, but the slope of the highs is steeper than the slope of the lows.
What to Look For:
Trendlines converging: The wedge narrows as the highs and lows converge.
Breakdown: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the lower trendline, signaling a bearish move.
Live Trading Tip: Short the trade once the price breaks below the wedge, especially if volume increases.
Key Signals to Look for in Live Trading
1. Volume Confirmation
Description: Volume plays a critical role in confirming the validity of chart patterns. A breakout or breakdown on low volume can be a false signal, whereas high volume supports the strength of the price movement.
What to Look For:
Volume Spike on Breakout: Look for a significant increase in volume during breakouts from chart patterns. This indicates that more traders are participating in the move and that it has momentum.
Divergence between Price and Volume: If price is moving in one direction but volume is decreasing, it may indicate a weakening trend.
2. False Breakouts
Description: A false breakout occurs when the price appears to break out of a pattern but quickly reverses, trapping traders who acted on the breakout.
What to Look For:
Lack of Follow-Through: After the breakout, if the price doesn’t continue in the breakout direction and instead reverses quickly, this could be a false breakout.
Live Trading Tip: To avoid false breakouts, wait for a retest of the breakout level or look for confirmation in volume before entering a trade.
3. Divergence with Indicators
Description: Divergence occurs when the price of an asset moves in one direction while an indicator (such as the RSI or MACD) moves in the opposite direction.
What to Look For:
Bullish Divergence: When price makes lower lows, but the indicator forms higher lows, signaling a potential reversal to the upside.
Bearish Divergence: When price makes higher highs, but the indicator forms lower highs, indicating a potential reversal to the downside.
Live Trading Tip: Use divergence as a signal to prepare for a trend reversal, especially when combined with chart patterns like double tops or bottoms.
Chart patterns are essential for predicting price movements, but they work best when combined with other tools like volume analysis and indicators. As you gain experience in live trading, you'll develop the ability to spot these patterns more easily and understand how to trade them effectively. Always remain patient and look for confirmation signals before entering trades based on chart patterns.
Drop Base Drop Pattern: A Technical Analysis PerspectiveDefinition:
The Drop Base Drop pattern is a technical chart pattern that indicates a potential continuation of a downtrend. It consists of a sharp decline in price, followed by a period of consolidation or sideways movement (the base), and then a resumption of the downtrend.
Formation:
First Drop: A significant price decline.
Base Formation: A period of consolidation or sideways movement, often below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous decline.
Second Drop: A continuation of the downtrend, breaking below the base's low.
Trading Implications:
Sell Signal: If the Drop Base Drop forms below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level in a downtrend, it suggests a potential continuation of the bearish trend.
Risk Management: Employ stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses.
Confirmation: Seek additional technical indicators or chart patterns to reinforce the bearish signal.
Key Considerations:
False Breakouts: Be cautious of false breakouts, where the price temporarily breaks below the base's low but then reverses.
Market Conditions: The effectiveness of the pattern may vary depending on overall market conditions and the specific characteristics of the underlying asset.
Individual Stocks: The pattern's reliability can differ between stocks. Analyze multiple timeframes and technical indicators for a more comprehensive assessment.
Conclusion:
The Drop Base Drop pattern can be a valuable tool for identifying potential downtrend continuations. However, it's essential to use it in conjunction with other technical analysis techniques and risk management strategies.
Life of Trader'sAfter Assistant Part Time Trader (Bhupen A My system) unsuccessfully attempts suicide, he recounts his story of the Trader, India, underworld, which he'd been investigating for decades. It begins with the tale of System (Display), a smuggler. Bhupen A to take System down through the gang leader's relationship with a Hardware Toolkit, but his attempt fails. Then a rising gangster, the power struggle is far from over and Bhupen A(Trader) cut his system head..
This Video is for Harmonic Pattern Traders.Educational PurposeHarmonic Pattern trading is a measurement based approach which has been proven to be very effective in the financial market.
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HOW TO CALCULATE PIPS ON TRADINGVIEWHere i show you how you can calculate pips using tradingview tool like ruler and forecast position to determine pips level . So with this you can be able to know what pips in trading weather is take profit or stoploss.
Decoding Money Flow within Markets to Anticipate Price DirectionI. Introduction
In the intricate world of financial markets, understanding the flow of capital between different assets is paramount for traders and investors aiming to anticipate price movements. Money doesn't move haphazardly; it often follows patterns and trends influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and inter-market relationships.
This article delves into the concept of money flow between markets, specifically analyzing how volume movements in one market can influence price directions in another. Our focus centers on two pivotal markets: the 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZN1!) and the Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!). Additionally, we'll touch upon other significant markets such as ES1! (E-mini S&P 500 Futures), GC1! (Gold Futures), 6E1! (Euro FX Futures), BTC1! (Bitcoin Futures), and ZC1! (Corn Futures) to provide a comprehensive view.
By employing the Granger Causality test—a statistical method used to determine if one time series can predict another—we aim to unravel the nuanced relationships between these markets. Through this exploration, we aspire to equip readers with insights and methodologies that can enhance their trading strategies, particularly in anticipating price directions based on volume dynamics.
II. Understanding Granger Causality
Granger Causality is a powerful statistical tool used to determine whether one time series can predict another. While it doesn't establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship in the strictest sense, it helps identify if past values of one variable contain information that can predict future values of another. In the context of financial markets, this can be invaluable for traders seeking to understand how movements in one market might influence another.
Pros and Cons:
Predictive Power: It provides a systematic way to determine if one market’s past behavior can forecast another’s, helping traders anticipate potential market movements.
Quantitative Analysis: Offers a statistical basis for analyzing market relationships, reducing reliance on subjective judgment.
Lag Dependency: The test is dependent on the chosen lag length, which may not capture all relevant dynamics between the series.
Not True Causality: Granger Causality only suggests a predictive relationship, not a true cause-and-effect mechanism.
III. Understanding Money Flow via Granger Causality
The data used for this analysis consists of daily volume figures for each of the seven markets described above, spanning from January 1, 2018, to the present. While the below heatmap presents results for different lags, we will focus on a lag of 2 days as we aim to capture the short-term predictive relationships that exist between these markets.
Key Findings
The results of the Granger Causality test are presented in the form of a heatmap. This visual representation provides a clear, at-a-glance understanding of which markets have predictive power over others.
Each cell in the matrix represents the p-value of the Granger Causality test between a "Cause" market (row) and an "Effect" market (column). Lower p-values (darker cell) indicate a stronger statistical relationship, suggesting that the volume in the "Cause" market can predict movements in the "Effect" market.
Key Observations related to ZN1! (10-Year T-Note Futures):
The heatmap shows significant Granger-causal relationships between ZN1! volume and the volumes of several other markets, particularly CL1! (Light Crude Oil Futures), where the p-value is 0, indicating a very strong predictive relationship.
This suggests that an increase in volume in ZN1! can reliably predict subsequent volume changes in CL1!, which aligns with our goal of identifying capital flow from ZN1! to CL1! In this case.
IV. Trading Methodology
With the insights gained from the Granger Causality test, we can develop a trading methodology to anticipate price movements in CL1! based on volume patterns observed in ZN1!.
Further Volume Analysis with CCI and VWAP
1. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): CCI is a versatile technical indicator that when applied to volume, measures the volume deviation from its average over a specific period. In this methodology, we use the CCI to identify when ZN1! is experiencing excess volume.
Identifying Excess Volume:
The CCI value for ZN1! above +100 suggests there is an excess of buying volume.
Conversely, when CL1!’s CCI is below +100 while ZN1! is above +100, it implies that the volume from ZN1! has not yet transferred to CL1!, potentially signaling an upcoming volume influx into CL1!.
2. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The VWAP represents the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price.
Predicting Price Direction:
If Today’s VWAP is Above Yesterday’s VWAP: This scenario indicates that the market's average trading price is increasing, suggesting bullish sentiment. In this case, if ZN1! shows excess volume (CCI above +100), we would expect CL1! to make a higher high tomorrow.
If Today’s VWAP is Below Yesterday’s VWAP: This scenario suggests bearish sentiment, with the average trading price declining.
Here, if ZN1! shows excess volume, we would expect CL1! to make a lower low tomorrow.
Application of the Methodology:
Step 1: Identify Excess Volume in ZN1!: Using the CCI, determine if ZN1! is above +100.
Step 2: Assess CL1! Volume: Check if CL1! is below +100 on the CCI.
Step 3: Use VWAP to Confirm Direction: Compare today’s VWAP to yesterday’s. If it’s higher, prepare for a higher high in CL1!; if it’s lower, prepare for a lower low.
This methodology combines statistical insights from the Granger Causality test with technical indicators to create a structured approach to trading.
V. Case Studies: Identifying Excess Volume and Anticipating Price Direction
Case Study 1: May 23, 2024
Scenario:
ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +265.11
CL1!: CCI was at +12.84.
VWAP: Below the prior day’s VWAP.
Outcome:
A lower low was made.
Case Study 2: June 28, 2024
Charts for this case study are at the top of the article.
Scenario:
ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +175.12
CL1!: CCI was at -90.23.
VWAP: Above the prior day’s VWAP.
Outcome:
A higher high was made.
Case Study 3: July 11, 2024
Scenario:
ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +133.39
CL1!: CCI was at +0.23.
VWAP: Above the prior day’s VWAP.
Outcome:
A higher high was made.
These case studies underscore the practical application of the trading methodology in real market scenarios.
VI. Conclusion
The exploration of money flow between markets provides valuable insights into how capital shifts can influence price movements across different asset classes.
The trading methodology developed around this relationship, utilizing the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) to measure excess volume and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to confirm price direction, offers a systematic approach to capitalizing on these inter-market dynamics. Through the case studies, we demonstrated the practical application of this methodology, showing how traders can anticipate higher highs or lower lows in CL1! based on volume conditions observed in ZN1!.
Key Takeaways:
Granger Causality: This test is an effective tool for uncovering predictive relationships between markets, allowing traders to identify where capital might flow next.
CCI and VWAP: These indicators, when used together, provide a robust framework for interpreting volume data and predicting subsequent price movements.
Limitations and Considerations:
While Granger Causality can reveal important inter-market relationships, it is not without its limitations. The test's accuracy depends on the chosen lag lengths and the stationarity of the data. Additionally, the CCI and VWAP indicators, while powerful, are not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other analysis tools.
Traders should remain mindful of the broader market context, including economic events and geopolitical factors, which can influence market behavior in ways that statistical models may not fully capture. Additionally, effective risk management practices are crucial, as they help mitigate potential losses that may arise from unexpected market movements or the limitations of any predictive models.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
GAIL: This is why People lose moneyThis is one important case study as to why investors lose money in the stock market.
Now if you look at the chart, Here is what you see:
1. 32 Months of pure range-bound consolidation
2. Clearly defined support and resistance zones
3. Five months of consolidation at the resistance zone
4. A beautiful high-volume breakout followed by a retest.
5. This is one textbook setup for a long trade
So, We should go long here, right?
If I zoom out of the chart, Here is what you will see.
- We have a strong resistance zone sitting just above the breakout level.
- The price took a strong rejection from the exact resistance zone.
Also, Observe the volatile consolidation zone that lasted almost 2 Years. That volatile zone may not be passed through in one instant.
What we investors do is draw conclusions based on partial data and predict the price action that is yet to come. What we fail to do is observe the previous price action in its entirety.
Does that mean that GAIL will not rise in value, Absolutely not. It just means that the uncertainty it has on the charts for a mere 10% gain ( breakout to ATH Distance) is super high.
The market is full of opportunities. Why invest in something that already has a foreseeable red flag?
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⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
HOW TO FIND A BETTER ENRTY FOR TRADING FOREXHere i show you how you can find a better entry trading forex and also trading xauusd. So right here you can able to know how to enter , set stoploss and take profits
Keys to the Kingdom: How to Become a Badass TraderReady to unlock the secrets of badass trading? In this video, I'm sharing the ultimate guide to becoming a successful and confident trader. Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned pro, these tips and strategies will elevate your trading game to new heights.
We'll cover:
Mastering technical analysis and reading market trends
Developing a solid trading plan and sticking to it
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Recognizing key opportunities for maximum gains
Building the right mindset for trading success
Join me as I reveal the keys to the kingdom and transform you into a badass trader. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more powerful trading insights and strategies. Let's dominate the markets together! 🚀💹
