The Power of the Opening Range: Mastering Trading StrategiesWelcome to my video on "Trading Using The Opening Range: The Power of the Opening Range - Mastering Trading Strategies." In this informative session, I dive into the powerful concept of utilizing the opening range to enhance your trading strategies.
Understanding the opening range is critical for successful trading, as it sets the tone for the rest of the trading day. By familiarizing yourself with this key market phase, you gain an edge in predicting potential price movements and identifying profitable entry and exit points.
In this video, I walk you through various techniques for effectively utilizing the opening range in your trading decisions. I discuss how to interpret price action during this phase, identify key support and resistance levels, and spot profitable breakouts or pullbacks. By mastering these strategies, you can significantly increase your chances of profitable trades.
I provide step-by-step guidance on how to develop a personalized trading plan with the opening range as its foundation. Creating a well-defined plan tailored to your trading style and risk tolerance is crucial for consistent success in the dynamic world of trading.
CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY
Harmonic Patterns
Price-Action-Channel-Formation: Key Projection-Types!Hello Traders Investors And Community,
Welcome to this tutorial about Price-Action-Channel-Formation. In markets, there are often price-actions forming that move into channel-formations which can shape into different forms. In this tutorial, I am looking at important channel structure types and how the projections can be assigned to properly object a taget-zone in the various types. As it is most often the case such formations can show up with a great potential signal to enter when they rightly complete and the final confirmation shows up, therefore it is important to keep patient on these confirmations and do not hesitate to enter into the market when no solid setup and opportunity is given.
Range-Breakout-Projection:
- Such ranges form quite often in the market and they can develop on smaller timeframes such as the 1-hour timeframe or higher timeframes such as the daily timeframe always with the proper time perspective given with the certain range. The pattern starts with a downtrend or in the reverse with an uptrend marking a new low or high which is the support/resistance in the range then the price bounces back to form the counterpart high or low which then creates the counterpart support/resistance in the structure. After a period of consolidation, the price finally breaks out of the range above the support/resistance level and closes there. When the final breakout emerges there are two possible target-projections, firstly the range height from the support to the resistance that is projected from the breakout point and secondly the width from the initial range entry to the breakout which is projected from the low to the upside, both projection can have different targets that can be assigned as target one and target two.
Tripple-Channel-Target-Projection:
- This is a very interesting channel-formation that is forming in the markets. Firstly the uptrend channel develops as seen in my chart(this can also happen in the bearish direction), within this channel a new high marks in the structure before the price-action actually reverses and breaks out below the lower boundary of this main ascending channel. The first breakout below the lower boundary of the channel activates a target with the projection to the downside and after that it is not seldom seen that the price-action moves back into the lower boundary and tests again as seen in my chart, in this case two further channels can be drawn, the second channel in the structure which is projected from the high to the structure lows and highs to the downside and the third channel projected from the new downtrend low to the new downtrend high, when the price-action now moves into the lower boundary of the main channel again this is a tripple-resistance-pullback as seen in my chart and the price-action moves on to the targets by the breakout and when the price-action then moves below the second channel the next target is activated.
Classical-Descending-Channel-Projection:
- This is the most classical channel in the market, it can form as a descending channel marking a potential bullish reversal as well as an ascending channel marking a potential bearish reversal. In both types, the channel is formed by the trend lows and highs which are ranging in the channel and as the downtrend (or in the reverse the uptrend) moves on the market gets oversold and the possibility for a reversal gets higher as the market has not the ability to continue this way for every. Such a formation also often inhabits a elliot ABCDE-wave-count which can offer additional confirmation for a breakout. This final breakout emerges when the asset gets that much oversold that demand enters and a breakout above the upper boundary settles as it is shown in my chart. When this breakout shows up the channel heights from the up to the downside is projected to the final breakout to the upside and the price-action is ready to appoint these zones.
Range-Triangle-Channel-Projection:
- This is a pattern that combines two formations, firstly an ascending channel and secondly an ascending triangle which is forming within the channel. Firstly the ascending-channel establishes with higher highs and higher lows and within this channel, the price-action makes something interesting as it does not move on further in the structure and stops making new highs it pulls back and forms a horizontal line of highs in the structure which then develops into this ascending-triangle seen in my chart in orange. Such an ascending triangle has the ability to form a dedicated breakout to the upside when the price-action moved on to range in the triangle and possibly also completes the wave-count within. When the price-action finally breaks out above the upper boundary of the triangle this will activate the further developments and targets at the upside especially amazing is the double projection here which projects the triangle height to the upside and is also at the same time the target at the upper boundary of the ascending-channel which can approve the target not only in price but also in time.
Bull-Flag-Channel-Breakout-Projection:
- This type of formation projection can show up with a very good solid signal however there are some very important determinations that need to confirm rightly before assessing the formation in the right manner. When the bull flag does not complete properly and the price-action increases bearishly or also bullishly when it is a bear-flag such a flag-formation can also invalidate with the breakout into the reverse direction which can often lead to heavy volatilities into the other direction as traders get trapped. Nevertheless when the formation completes rightly which will happen with the final breakout above the upper or lower boundary the target projection is made from the previous low in the wave to the upside to the high which is then projected from the lowest price-action point in the flag to the upside, always possible with the counterpart formation into the other direction.
Double-Channel-Triangle-Breakout-Projection:
- Now comes a very amazing formation as there are some interesting points given in this formation that can lead to a very strong breakout signal and the activation of the targets ahead. This formation basically consists of an initial channel to the downside in which the price-action ranges and after that can fall below the lower boundary and continue bearishly to reach the target, this initial price-action in the descending channel does not necessarily need to show up. After that when the price-action reached the targets the price backs up and continues to the upside to finally move into the previous descending-channel again in which it continues to consolidate and now also forms a bunch of lower lows that mark an ascending-trend-line in this channel, both the first descending-channel and now the second ascending-channel form a symmetrical triangle formation which is more likely to break out into the direction it came from which in this case is the bullish direction, this can also be measured into the reverse direction. The breakout then strongly activates an upside target which is the price-projection of the triangle to the upside and also the upper-boundary of the channel-formation that can also show the target in time.
In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about these important price-action-channel-formation types that can be spotted in today's market, will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best!
Information is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
MACD-Divergences: Assessing Present Varying Exemplifications!_____
Hello Traders Investors And Community,
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Welcome to this tutorial in which I will analyze the MACD-Divergence and its various types that can come up in the market movements. The MACD is an indicator developed in 1986 and since then established as a primary indicator in the oscillator types besides the RSI or stochastic. The indicator mainly has the function of spotting reversals and potential entry points into the market to catch the appropriate values and upcoming reversal developments. Although the indicator can be used as a single signal for market action only it is best combined with other technical analysis aspects such as candlesticks or volume. The main timeframe to apply the indicator should be the daily timeframe, it can be also applied to higher timeframes such as the weekly to assess broader trends. The indicator can also be applied on lower timeframes such as the 4-hour or hourly however in this case the fake signals getting higher.
The MACD consists of 3 main elements, the first is the MACD-Line marked in my chart in orange which is calculated by the 12-day EMA (Exponential-Moving-Average) minus the 26-day EMA. The second element is the signal-line which is a 9-day EMA. Further comes the histogram which measures the distance from the MACD-Line to the signal line and the histogram is positive when the MACD-Line is above the signal-line as well as negative when it is below. The main signal happens when the MACD-Line crosses the signal-line when it crosses from the downside to the upside this is typically seen before a bullish reversal takes place and the same in reverse with the MACD-Line crossing the signal-line down when a bearish reversal takes place, in both cases also the histogram changes from positive to negative or negative to positive.
In any case, it is always necessary to combine the MACD with the current price-action happening as in this case comes the interesting part with the divergences happening that can lead to dedicated signals. These divergences happen when there is a discrepancy between MACD and the actual price-action happening indicating a potential change in direction of actual price-action as the MACD shows up with these signs. In any case, it is unavoidable to consider the price-action together with the MACD as otherwise, it can lead to catching a fake-out and getting stopped out of the position what should be avoided in trading. The MACD also does not typically spot overbought or oversold conditions as it is an indicator consisting of EMAs it represents the previously developed price-actions in relation to the ongoing and upcoming price-actions.
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Regular MACD Divergences:
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Classical MACD Crossover
- The Classical MACD Crossover comes up when the MACD-line crosses the signal-line either from the upside to the downside or from the downside to the upside. Both versions can indicate a reversal into the direction the MACD-line crossed the signal-line however the timeframe and structure is important here. When this crossover happens on the lower timeframes below 6-hours it can happen that there are many fake signals with several crossovers behind each other while the price-action is actually trending into one direction. The higher timeframes such as the daily are therefore the best to apply this regular classical MACD crossover.
Classical MACD Histogram Divergence
- This divergence occurs when the histogram has formed a new high together with the price-action, for example, the histogram forms the new high at 0.3 in the MACD-histogram then the price-action moves further and forms a higher high exceeding the previous one however the MACD-histogram does not do a higher high also while staying below the 0.3 level. This indicates that the market is likely to reverse into the other direction because the histogram does not correspond with the actual price-action and therefore forms a divergence. This can be applied in the reverse direction as well and a good combination would be to look also at the volume or overbought and oversold conditions.
Histogram Divergence Fakeout
- In this case, it is the crucial part of the histogram divergence. The price-action and MACD fulfilled the initial requirements for a classical MACD histogram divergence and the price-action should markdown after forming the final high and the divergence, however in this case it does not happen instead the price-action moves lower a little bit signaling the possible normal development after this signal and then moves up again exceeding the previous high and stopping out traders who may have entered the market because of the divergence, after that the price-action can markdown finally and move lower, therefore it is necessary to look at the price-action also and see if the market is really ready to markdown after the signal.
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Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅰ
- The Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅰ is a divergence in the price-action that marks two important confirmations including this a technical confirmation in the MACD normally seen in price-action. In this divergence, the price-action marks consecutive higher highs while the MACD forms a double-top with the rejection at the upper baseline confirming the double-top. This divergence is likely to reverse the previously established bullish trend to the downside and continue with bearish determinations. It is important to watch out for fakeouts before potentially entering and when this possibility is low it can be a good entry.
Bullish Regular Divergence Ⅰ
- This is the counterpart to the Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅰ. In this case the price-action marks lower lows in the structure in the best case also with falling volume and momentum while the MACD makes a double-bottom which is a good sign when both form that the price will likely reverse into the bullish direction. A trendline breakout of the previous established lower highs in the downtrend can also add additional confirmation to the final bullish reversal.
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Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅱ
- This is a very interesting divergence as it combines the classical price-action formation double-top with the lower highs forming in the MACD. A confirmed double top alone can also be a strong signal for a reversal nevertheless with the additional MACD making lower lows this can add to the main bearish reversal coming in and accelerating it. A valid confirmation will take place when the price-action regularly confirms the double-top with the neckline breakout to the downside.
Bullish Regular Divergence Ⅱ
- Here is another divergence in which the price-action forms a reliable reversal-formation, in this case, a double-bottom which also can alone be the decisive factor for the final reversal, together then with the higher lows forming in the MACD it is a strong signal to reversing the trend into the bullish direction and similarly to the Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅱ it finally confirms with the neckline breakout by the established double-bottom with proper volume to the upside.
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Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅲ
- This divergence has a good and appropriate application in the market formations to form. In this divergence, the price-actions form higher highs while the MACD forms lower lows signaling a bearish reversal to take place. A good confirmation occurs when the price-action closes below the lastly established lows and after that continues also further to form further bearish continuations, it can be a good point to spot the final reversal when the MACD looks like it develops the next lower high.
Bullish Regular Divergence Ⅲ
- This is the exact counterpart of the Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅲ while the price-action forms lower lows in the structure the MACD develops higher highs showing this given divergence and likely to indicate the bullish reversal to take place sooner or later. Additionally, a falling volume and momentum in the actual price-action will lead to more increased validations followed by an upcoming rise in volatility above previously lower highs, these structures and developments are always also important.
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Hidden MACD Divergences:
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Bearish Hidden Divergence Ⅰ
- This divergence is actually the counterpart to the Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅰ and in this case, the MACD also forms a double top in the structure however unlikely as in the Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅰ in this case the price-action forms lower highs in the structure showing the exceptional weakness of the bulls as the price-action does not manages to maintain further higher highs, this is why the formation is finally likely to confirm bearishly to the downside and the reversal took place.
Bearish Hidden Divergence Ⅰ
- In this divergence the MACD forms a double-bottom with both lows forming a lower baseline in the MACD-histogram structure while the price-action forms higher lows which is very important here as such a constellation is normally defined as bullish with the possibility to reverse, the double-bottom in the MACD then confirms the further bullishness to establish and likely bullish volatility to show up in the structure, the requirement is that the established uptrend-line does not invalidate to the downside.
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Bearish Hidden Divergence Ⅱ
- The next divergence is forming a classical reversal-development with the formation of a double-top in the price-action as the two highs form a horizontal baseline where the price-action rejects while the MACD is developing higher highs in the structure. In this case, the final confirmation sets place when the price-action breaks out below the neckline of the double-top in the structure which is the set-up for the further continuations bearishly to the downside, the best is to wait on the final confirmation before considering moving into.
Bullish Hidden Divergence Ⅱ
- This classical bullish reversal-formation marks out the potential stopping of the downtrend with two lows building the baseline of a potential double-bottom while the MACD is establishing this lower low structure it is the proper further confirmational part to develop a sufficient bullish reversal which will finally take place when the price-action breaks out above the upper neckline of the double-bottom to complete it and show up with further continuations to the upside.
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Bearish Hidden Divergence Ⅲ
- When the price-action forms lower highs that do not maintain new higher highs in an uptrend it is always a sign that the uptrend is struggling and that it is likely to reverse together then with the higher highs divergence in the MACD to form the final bearish reversal has a high possibility to emerge which will validate when price-action moves below the previous lows in the uptrend and continues to the south.
Bullish Hidden Divergence Ⅲ
- With this form the uptrend and the higher highs structure that developed in the price-action have a tendency to reverse as the MACD forms the lower lows in the structure signaling that the MACD is already doing the markdown that follows also in the price-action. In this case the final confirmation will take place with a breakout below the established ascending trend-line after which a bearish continuation will likely follow up.
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Therefore moving through all these important different forms the MACD can be a substantial indicator for spotting reversals in the structure when done right. It is always necessary to maintain the objection to the current situation and further technical factors to apply the MACD-divergences rightly.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day as well as weekend, and all the best to you!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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The Evolution Of Money: From Barter-System To Cryptocurrency!Hello,
Welcome to this analysis about The Evolution Of Money. Till today money had a protracted history reaching back to times where there even did not exist electricity or industry like we now it these days. Since these beginnings money constantly reshaped and emerged new forms of money that theoretically can be applied still today however it is also a fact that it is important in which form the money circulates bringing innovation and prosperity to the civilization as there are money forms although logical from its form however contra-productive for the further developments.
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The Barter System (High Phase 98000 BC - 900 BC):
It is clear that in times where people did not have the ability to keep a sufficient store-of-value they had to adapt to circumstances and exchange what they had in order to receive things they need for everyday living, this form of money is called the "Barter-System". This system principally defines the exchange of goods and services against other goods and services. It was a typical hunter-gatherer-form of exchange between the individual occupations. For example, a fisherman had a lot of fish however no grain to exchange for and on the other side there was a farmer which had a lot of grain, however, no fish to eat, so these two come to an agreement to exchange the fish against the grain in order to fulfill both sides needs.
This system had a lot of substantial problems as it was not possible to store any value with the goods and services, besides it only functioned when the other side also searched for the offered product therefore there needed to be a double coincidence of wants otherwise an exchange was not fulfilled by both sides agreements. Besides that there was the issue with the indivisibility of goods, for example, one had one goat and needed one pot therefore it was only possible to exchange one goat against 10 pots and now the goat holder was stuck because he could not share the goat into 10 pieces to received his one pot as needed. Overall it was a complicated exchange system that definitely could have been improved.
Commodity Money (High Phase 6000 BC - 500 AD):
Since it was not possible to store values with the Barter-System as there were also many goods that fouled by the times this could also be improved by the right commodities that do not foul. In ancient Rome, the Romans moved on to keep salt as a store of value and exchange for goods and services. Salt is easily divisible, it can be stored for a long period of time and it was expensive and labor-intensive to produce therefore limited in quality, besides that it was widely consumed by everybody. Additionally to salt, many other forms of this commodity money emerged such as Cattle, Tobacco, Rice, Sugar, or Tea. All commodities which can be stored over a long period and exchange properly.
Together with these new gained advancements, it was a step in the right direction nevertheless there remained significant negative aspects in the commodity money these are various things such as some forms of cattle are very difficult to store because they need to be fed constantly and can not obtain a passive store, other forms like cowry shells are fragile and need to be transported carefully. Besides these storing problems, it was always difficult to transport over long routes as the commodities can take up so much room that it was simply so unpracticable to transport them over long distances. Also, there existed not universal acceptability so the two exchange partners needed to agree on the exchange of these commodities to come up with a deal.
Metal Money (600 BC till today)
Metal money was a true revolution in the money evolution and the story speaks for itself as it is still today widely accepted and a sufficient store of value with gold and silver holding its values. Against the commodity money, it was stable and had an inherent value as it is rare in nature as well as its supply is limited, the perfect characteristics for a natural store of value and also exchange value. As metals were already used for armors and tools and had already the value within these products this kept advancing with the first coins to be pressed in ancient Greece 600 BC after which the metallic money kept advancing into more sophisticated forms such as the IOUs and also tender coinage bringing a practicable way to pay for goods and services.
The Metallic Money shaped into different forms like the IOUs where Goldsmiths backed the gold and gave people a trust which they can exchange in order to receive goods and services, so the people came to the goldsmith and bought basically gold for which they received the document to pay with. The only problem with this system was that the Goldsmiths created fake IOUs and kept spending them. Besides this form, there was the legal coinage in Rome for example with gold coins issued by the empire however the problem, in this case, was that it got debased over time as the people mixed more cheap metal like copper with the gold coins to get a higher supply, today it wont function so easily as it can be proved nevertheless in this time it marked a serious issue.
Paper Money (1690 till today):
The emerging paper money in fact marked a true change in the whole money system as now it was not possible to issue by everybody, now it was issued by a central authority whereas these authorities firstly existed private also the mission came more and more into central bank area. The first printed money was created in 1690 in the form of a bill of credit to serve as a promissory note by the government on its own credit, these bill of credits were unsecured paper money and at this time in the 17th to 18th century, it was still possible to have private money with private companies creating own bills with the individual exchange qualities to get into the circulation.
Till today many currencies have established holding the money as it is issued by certain central banks such as the US-Dollar by the Federal-Reserve-System or the EURO by the European-Central-Bank. The problem here is that this money is printed by will and the central banks have the ability to just print more when the time is needed to do so like it was seen in the corona crisis where the money sum moved exponentially to new heights. Although Paper Money is still omnipresent and used as a store of value as well as exchange value to there are important faults that need to be improved to keep a healthy economic balance and obtain continued stable money.
Plastic Money (1946 till today):
In the 20Th Century, the printed central bank money moved now into the account money especially backed by the payment providers in the individual credit or debit cards. The first bank-issued cards originated in 1946 as a Brooklyn banker created the charge-it card, these were forwarded to the bank account and then the service or good was released. In post-war times further cards followed and till now there established credit-card providers which issue credit or debit cards also with giving their own credits to people that can be paid back.
Cryptocurrency (2008 till today):
This is the very last money form and the most innovative so far, like Bitcoins, like they invented, are limited in supply and can only be created through the mining process and proof of work they provide a sustainable interface within the blockchain which transactions are scalable and easy to use for peer-to-peer-transactions. It is not a wonder that the cryptocurrency market since the beginnings expanded more and more and several other projects emerged, there are still many projects given however the market will likely sort the not innovative ones out. Cryptocurrency marks the point in the history of money evolution where money advanced significantly from its initial barter exchange system to cryptocurrency. This is a major step and as for now, central banks are looking also into cryptocurrency and blockchain technology to implement their own central-bank-digital-currencies. There are really not many contra-aspects like in the previously stated money forms as cryptocurrency improved all the issues that previously came up and also innovated increasingly above these.
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In this manner, this was my analysis about the evolution of money which is important as the money keeps on shaping as we see it especially in these times with cryptocurrency, it is also not unlikely that these technologies will improve further, and there comes something new that is more applicable and innovative however till now cryptocurrency serves as the highest quality money forms when comparing to the other money forms. Especially it is the case that all money forms still coexist today however mainly not applicable.
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In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day, and all the best to you!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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Candlestick-Formations: How To Spot The Patterns Like A Pro!Hello,
Welcome to this tutorial about Candlesticks and in particular the very various candlestick patterns that form in the financial markets. The charting technique under which Candlesticks operate are candlestick charts and the candlesticks firstly came up in the 18th century, till today they established as a widespread technique that many traders use for their charting. What is so amazing with these candlesticks compared to a line or point-and-figure charting is that they can determine very precisely if a market is trending, if a reversal is establishing or the momentum of price-action is slowing down. The various single candlesticks can add up to decisive candlestick-patterns that can be used for trading and trading decisions, especially with other indicators such as oscillators or channeling they can be a strong tool for today's trading principally also in modern markets where there is decent liquidity and not many gaps such as Cryptocurrency or Forex.
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Characteristics:
- In my chart, I have listed 34 contrasting cryptocurrency patterns that can be spotted in the markets. On the left side, there are 16 bearish candlestick patterns and on the right side, there are 16 bullish candlestick patterns together with the 2 candlestick patterns in the middle which have the same name regardless of direction.
- From the 17 patterns for each side are 15 possible in both directions bullish as well as bearish while there are only 2 patterns in each direction that only form in this bearish or bullish direction.
- The patterns can be divided into continuation patterns and reversal patterns. Continuation patterns can be used to make sure the established trend moves on and reversal patterns can be used to spot actual reversals to properly prepare on it.
- The patterns are functioning in the underlying timeframes similarly with the trend established in this timeframe however from a broader perspective the bigger the timeframe in which the particular pattern forms the more consistent and strong this direction is for the bigger trend. So when for example a reversal pattern forms on the weekly timeframe it is stronger than patterns forming on the daily timeframe.
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Candlestick-Patterns:
Bearish/Bullish 3 Continuations:
- A very typical continuation pattern. The first big candle sets the tone for the pattern following up with 3 minor little candlesticks with no strength in the reverse direction till a further major candlestick emerges pushing the price toward the established direction.
Bearish/Bullish Harami:
- This is a good example of a reversal pattern. The first candlestick is a candle against the trend direction followed up by a new candle in the trend direction showing still possible continuation till a final smaller candlestick with a smaller body than the previous one sets the tone for the reversal.
Bearish/Bullish Harami Cross:
- A great continuation pattern. As the first candle is a big candle setting the pattern up with strength a little cross following up with the same close and open which is showing a consolidation in this range to build up and continue with the further volatility into the established direction.
Dark Cloud Cover/Piercing Line:
- A very very strong reversal pattern. While the two trend candles still suggest that the previous trend is ongoing the next third candle is very weak as it is small and does not rally the full length of the previous candle and shows up win the ends of the previous candle signaling high weakness of the bulls or bears and setting up the determined reversal.
Engulfing Bearish Line/Engulfing Bullish Line:
- The next substantial reversal pattern. It happens in a developed up or downtrend with the last candles low forming a line, the body of the next candle is bigger than the previous however it's close or open exactly forms there where the previous candle had its low, when the next individual candles moving to continue in this reverse direction then the pattern fully confirms.
Evening Doji Start/Morning Doji Star:
- This is a very interesting reversal pattern. As one normal candle into the trend directions sets up the pattern one continued weak start Doji is formed above the top or bottom of the previous body showing exhaustion and momentum slowing down, when the next candle moves into the reverse direction the pattern and continuation are validated.
Evening Star/Morning Star:
- A great reversal pattern. The first candles close or open set up a line where the next close or open travels outside the line with the candle showing a weak breakout while the next line into the reverse direction confirms the reversal and the formation to set up further volatilities into the reverse continuation-zone.
Gravestone Doji/Dragonfly Doji:
- These candles signal the initial exhaustion of the trend with a candlestick with a long shadow and the smallest possible body with the same open and close, they can be reversal as well as continuation patterns. Either the body is in the upper range or the lower range of the shadow, this is which direction the next movements will likely go.
Separating Line Bearish/Separating Line Bullish:
- This is a strong continuation pattern. As the first candle's body with the open or close sets up a line the next candle's close or long is below or above the line which means a weakness of this next candle regardless of the direction and estimates the further continuations into the trend direction.
Evening Window Star/Morning Window Start:
- This is a good example of a reversal pattern including a gap in the structure. As the first candle moves into the established direction there comes a gap before the next candle emerges which closes outside the body of the previous candle above or below, after that following candles into the new direction validate the final reversal of the previous trend.
3 Bullish Soldiers/3 Bearish Soldiers:
- This is a very typical reversal pattern as the established trend exhausts with three small candles the momentum of this trend gets smaller and when the next candles follow up with a much bigger body into the other direction the pattern is completed and will determine the bearish or bullish continuations into the reversal direction.
Inverted Hammer:
- This is a reversal pattern that stops the previous trend and moves in the other direction. It has a high similarity with the hammer however in this case the small bodies close or open is at the same price as the low of the candle showing the exhaustion of the previous trend direction and builds the setup for the full reversal.
On-Neck Line:
- This is a pattern that shows the incoming bullish reversal of a previously established bearish trend as one first bullish candle signals the possible reversal it is followed by a bearish one still pushing downward and forming a new low till a snap-back move on finally confirming the reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer:
- This is a pattern that determines a strong reversal as the first candles open or close forms a line, the following candles move above or below this line and then close or open is exactly on this line just outside after that the next big candle forms into the reverse direction again below or above this line and the final reversal is formed.
Long Upper Shadow/Long Lower Shadow:
- This pattern can move in the bearish or bullish direction showing up a reversal, as the price-action is exhausted in the particular direction a long shadow builds up while the body of the candlestick is very small in the previous direction weakens further and the reversal is easily established.
Tweezer Tops/Tweezer Bottoms:
- This reversal pattern can come in two variants in both it is important on where the close of the new candle lies to the previous candle or in reverse the open to the new candle, similarly with the low or high of the new candle. When these are at the same price action the reversal is determined into the new direction.
Hanging Man/Hammer:
- This pattern signals a determined reversal and in comparison to the long upper shadow/long lower shadow fills out the complete end of the shadow with the close or open at the same price level as the high.
Tri-Star:
- The Tri-Star is a pattern that shows a reversal with three candles each one with very small shadows as well as a same-close-and-same-open body, in the bearish reversal two bullish candles are followed by a third bearish and in the bullish reversal, the reciprocal determinations hold true.
Spinning Top:
- This pattern is an amazing reversal pattern with a very large shadow and the body exactly in the middle. Depending on whether the candlestick is green or red this will be the direction in which the further continuations move.
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As we can see now there are a lot of great patterns to be formed in modern markets and when done right they can be spotted and can provide the proper informational inputs for trading planning especially in combination with other technical analysis tools they can function exceptionally well and building a solid alternative for the other charting techniques, the success story tells itself as they have established well in the trading world. In trading these types of candlestick patterns it is necessary to recognize in which timeframe they form, as bigger timeframes can invalidate lower and in which trending constellation they are forming, therefore it is also good to look at previous candles and their patterns in the individual asset.
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In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day, and all the best to you!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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Central-Bank-Digital-CurrenciesHello,
Welcome to this analysis about Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies in which I will explore the ongoing process by central banks to generate Digital-Currencies that replicate the individual Fiat-Currency, its characteristics, its possible manifestations, and its differences to the classical cryptocurrencies we all know as Bitcoin or Ethereum created in the beginning.
Since Cryptocurrency was invented by the esteemed Satoshi Nakamoto publishing the open-source white-paper about Bitcoin as a completely decentralized Peer-To-Peer Digital-Currency which supply is limited and is generated through mining and the Proof-Of-Work concept many other decentralized cryptocurrencies emerged such as Ethereum or Litecoin that approved a secure and stable way of payment solutions operating within the determined blockchains. This completely new form of currency and the digital interface was watched by critics as well as supporters and a hype created with cryptocurrency enthusiasts accelerating the innovation process in cryptocurrency. On the other side, banks and governments watched the Cryptocurrency development not always with a non-critical eye, and especially in this process central banks took a greater study into the technology and the idea came into the foreground for digital currencies held and issued by the central banks that should replicate the real fiat-money which is printed by the central banks and distributed through commercial banks. The digital currencies that should be issued by the central banks became the name CBDC (Central-Bank-Digital-Currency) and today many countries' central banks started to work on pilot projects and prototypes to launch the digital replicate of fiat money, in some countries they are already launched and implemented in the economy.
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- Comparing The Classical Concept Of Cryptocurrency To The Central Bank Concept Of Digital-Currency
The main characteristics of the classical cryptocurrency like invented in 2009 are that it is decentralized and that its supply is limited while the bitcoins are generated through the mining process there can be no more than 21 Million Bitcoins at all that defines the value of Bitcoin as miners need to improve the technological alignments to rightly mine the Bitcoins and come up with a mining-revenue to keep the process ongoing. On the other side, there is fiat money which is printed in the central bank printing press and which supply can be multiplied by will especially in times of crisis as it was in the last year the money supply increased exponentially by the central banks, this has an inflationary character and comes up with many other issues as in times of crisis the central banks need to print always more and more money as before. Now the fiat money printed by the central banks is issued to commercial banks with zero interests at this time and from there is supplied to the merchants and persons who taking up credits and which account money is held in a bank account as a "digital back-up" by the printed fiat money, the tendency with this bank account money is also to be multiplied by the banks and moved around in the system to be taken for credits so that one holds money in an account while it is used for the other individual's credit. Now as the central banks working on the digital currencies to substitute the fiat money in circulation the biggest difference is that its supply is not limited like it is in Bitcoin or many other cryptocurrencies, as the central bank fiat money can be printed further this is also the case with the upcoming central-bank-digital-currencies. Besides that the central-bank-digital-currencies are not decentral because they are issued by a central authority like the central bank, the system on which the CBDC is settled can be decentral however on a broader scale it is still centralized by the individual central bank, there is still a difference if the CBDC model is indirect, direct or hybrid nevertheless it is always centralized as the intern blockchain is created by the certain central bank. Another factor is also privacy as the public Bitcoin blockchain does not store any private user information, depending on the model with a CBDC this can be very different as there is indeed the possibility that private user information is stored in the blockchain by the central bank. Taking all these assumptions into consideration it comes to the conclusion that CBDCs aren't the same as the classical cryptocurrencies in common sense, it is rather a system that replaces the fiat money with digital money and gives the central bank much better opportunities to handle, store and track it with a faster network and potential storage of data.
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- Examining Models On How Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies Can Function
With the gained assumptions it is important to note that there are different type models under which CBDCs can operate. Every model has its own characteristics and handles money circulation in an altered cycle. Besides that, the different models can have very different effects on the economy and especially on sectors like the banking industry or payment solution providers. Furthermore, the types on how payment data and information is stored differ within these models. It is highly necessary to recognize these concepts to assume how the CBDC infrastructure affects the economical landscape.
The Indirect CBDC Model
Within this model, the central bank keeps track records of wholesale accounts by the commercial bank as an intermediary between the central bank and the persons or merchants. The consumer as the person or merchant has a claim with the intermediary as the commercial bank and handles payments with the commercial bank. In this case, the intermediary handles all the communication with the consumer as retail clients and its net payment information, sending payment messages and storing the data. It would be a similar model to the actual credit distribution that exists with credits given by the central banks to commercial banks and from these distributed to the persons or merchants.
The Direct CBDC Model
The Direct CBDC Model functions differently from the Indirect one as the payments are handled directly between the central banks and the persons or merchants, in this case, receives, stores, and processes the information given by the consumer. This model is much more functional and practicable for the central bank as the commercial banks as intermediaries aren't necessary for the gateway. A full-scale implementation of this model will cause a higher decrease in commercial banks at all of which the sector already struggles, the model would further this process. The model would also set the central bank as the central authority handling all the payment relevant mechanisms with the consumer as persons or merchants.
The Hybrid CBDC Model
In this model the Persons or Merchants have a direct claim on the CBDC with the central bank while an intermediary, in this case, a PSP (Payment-Service-Provider) keeps track of the payments information and handles direct payments, the PSP in this case does not need to be a bank essentially. It is also integrated within that when technical issues come up with failures in the system that the central bank can handle direct payments with the consumers and restore retail balances. This system offers more flexibility at the cost of a more complex infrastructure to operate for the central bank. Besides that, it has a similar negative effect on the banks like the direct model as banks arent necessarily needed for the payment communication.
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It is not unlikely that the development of Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies will keep going within the upcoming times, therefore it is necessary to elevate how these diverging models can affect the actual economy. As many countries moving on with the projects and prosecution of CBDCs these will be realized in a more fulfilled way with a high possibility and it will be an important question on central banks will govern these CBDCs as they aren't decentralized like the cryptocurrency roots they can not be held as a direct comparison to these and are indeed a fiat money replication in digital terms, it will definitely open new doors for the central-banks money policy however what it has for effects on consumers as peoples or merchants is a serious examination.
Thank you, for watching, it was important for me to scrutinize the significance of Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies and elevate a perception to this omnipresent topic.
In this manner what do you have for an opinion of Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies implementation? Let us know in the comments below.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
the inflation data (CPI) will be released. the inflation data (CPI) will be released.
Current: 3.2%, average forecast: 3.6%, expected to increase.
Consumer Price Index Expectations for Financial Institutions (Inflation):
(Lowest: 3.5% Highest: 3.7%)
Visa 3.5%
Canadian Imperial Bank 3.5%
Goldman Sachs 3.6
Bloomberg 3.6%
JP Morgan 3.6%
Mr. Wolf Capital 3.6%
Morgan Stanley 3.6%
Royal Bank 3.6%
Scotia bank 3.6%
TD 3.6%
Wells Fargo 3.6%
Barclays 3.7%
Nomura 3.7%
City 3.7%
HSBC 3.7%
UPS 3.7%
-average 3.6%
Tailoring Strategies for Different AssetsIn the world of trading automation, one size does not fit all. Different types of assets like cryptocurrencies and forex have unique properties that make them behave differently in the market. To maximize the potential of your trading automation, it’s essential to adapt your strategies to the specific ticker you’re trading. In this post, we’ll explore the differences between various types of assets and how you can optimize your automated trading strategies to achieve success.
➡️Crypto vs. Forex comparison⬅️
Crypto markets operate 24/7, while forex markets are open 24/5, making crypto trading potentially more demanding. The volatility in cryptocurrencies tends to be higher, with sudden price movements being more common. Forex markets generally have higher liquidity, meaning it is easier to enter and exit positions. Leverage in forex trading can be much higher compared to crypto trading, increasing both potential gains and losses. While forex markets are driven mainly by economic indicators, cryptocurrencies are more influenced by market sentiment and news events. Regulatory environments also differ, with forex markets being well-regulated and crypto markets having limited regulation.
📈Strategies for Forex, Indices, Major Cryptos, and Altcoins
Given the differences between forex, indices, major cryptocurrencies, and altcoins, it’s important to have distinct settings and strategies for each. Here are some specific strategies and indicators that are often mentioned as being suitable for each type:
1. Forex Trading Strategies:
Trend-following: Traders can utilize strategies like moving average crossovers, Parabolic SAR, or the MACD indicator to identify and follow trends in the forex market.
Mean Reversion: This strategy is based on the idea that prices will eventually revert to their historical averages. Traders can use indicators like Bollinger Bands or the RSI to identify potential reversals.
Support and Resistance: Traders can identify key price levels where the market is likely to reverse or continue its trend, using tools like horizontal support/resistance lines, Fibonacci retracements, or pivot points.
🤔Cryptocurrency Differences: BINANCE:BTCUSDT and BINANCE:ETHUSDT vs. Altcoins
When trading cryptocurrencies, it’s essential to understand that major coins like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) behave differently than altcoins. This divergence can be attributed to factors like market capitalization, liquidity, and overall market sentiment. BTC and ETH typically have higher liquidity and lower volatility compared to altcoins, making them more predictable and easier to trade. Altcoins, on the other hand, can experience sudden price swings, making it crucial to adapt your trading strategies accordingly.
2. Major Cryptocurrency Strategies (BTC and ETH):
Breakout Trading: Traders can use tools like Donchian Channels or trendlines to identify significant price levels where the market is likely to break out, either continuing the trend or reversing it.
Momentum Strategies: By utilizing indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator, or the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), traders can identify when the market has strong momentum and enter positions in the direction of the trend.
Swing Trading: This strategy involves holding positions for several days to weeks, aiming to capture price movements within a larger trend. Traders can use indicators like moving averages or Fibonacci retracements to identify potential entry and exit points.
3. Altcoin Trading Strategies:
High-Frequency Trading (HFT): This strategy involves entering and exiting positions quickly, seeking to profit from small price movements. Traders can use algorithms and tools like order book analysis, time and sales data, or market depth analysis to make rapid trading decisions.
Arbitrage Strategies: Traders can take advantage of price discrepancies between different exchanges by simultaneously buying and selling the same asset. This strategy can be particularly effective in altcoin markets, where price differences between exchanges can be more pronounced.
Technical Analysis: Similar to major cryptocurrencies, traders can use technical analysis tools like chart patterns, moving averages, or oscillators to identify potential trade setups in altcoin markets. However, due to the higher volatility and lower liquidity of altcoins, traders may need to adapt their strategies and risk management accordingly.
🤖Crypto Trading Automation: BTC Optimization and Hedge Mode
When it comes to crypto trading automation, Bitcoin (BTC) is often considered the easiest to optimize. Leveraging hedge mode allows you to run multiple strategies on BTC simultaneously, increasing the potential for success. This feature enables traders to have several strategies running concurrently without interfering with each other’s open positions, allowing for a more diversified and potentially profitable trading experience.
😊Conclusion: Elevate Your Trading Game with The Right Automation Strategy
The world of trading is as diverse as it is dynamic, with each asset class—be it forex, major cryptocurrencies, or altcoins—offering its own set of challenges and opportunities. The strategies you employ should be just as versatile, tailored to the unique characteristics of each market. With the power of TradingView's strategy development and the potential for seamless automation, you're not just participating in the market—you're mastering it.
If you have any questions or need further insights on how to set up your automated trading system, don't hesitate to drop a comment below. We're here to help you navigate this exciting journey.
Here's to smarter, more efficient trading. Cheers! 🥂
Channeling With Elliott Waves Target for wave 3 (Figure 1): As soon as wave 2 completes and reverses, draw a trend line from the origin of wave 1 through the end of wave 2, as shown in Figure 1. Then construct a parallel from wave 1, which will be the boundary for completion of wave 3
Target for wave 4 (Figure 2): When wave 3 completes and reverses, draw a trend line connecting waves 1 and 3. Then construct a parallel from wave 2. This will be the minimum target for wave 4. If this wave ends appreciably short of the boundary line, examine the developing pattern carefully. Is it possible that this is really W2 of W5 of W3? This is the kind of analysis that is required as patterns develop.
Target for wave 5 (see Figure 3): When wave 4 completes and reverses, draw a trend line connecting waves 2 and 4. Then construct a parallel from wave 3. This will be the boundary for wave 5. If it ends appreciably short, it may be a truncated fifth.
Market cycle psychology🔍 The psychology of the markets is a discipline that studies the different mental scenarios that investors often face when making their investments.
📚 Psychology in the market is one of the major pillars (for many, the primary one) that influences the success of the investor. The other two pillars are capital management and the applied investment system (strategy, routines, etc.).
📊 This cycle most frequently affects beginner investors/traders due to their inexperience and mental vulnerability to market movements.
❓ And you, have you experienced all the stages of this cycle? (🇬🇧)
UNVEILING THE COMPREHENSIVE ARSENAL OF TRADING TOOLS
The trading landscape in the 21st century is characterized by a revolutionary fusion of cutting-edge technology and financial acumen. As the accessibility of trading increases, traders wield a versatile suite of tools that encompass chart patterns, Fibonacci retracements, Andrews' pitchfork, and the Zig Zag indicator. This in-depth exploration delves into the profound significance of these tools, unraveling their collective potential to empower proactive traders with precision, insight, and strategic advantage.
The Evolution of Modern Trading Tools:
The digital age has ushered in a new era of trading prowess, where rapid data flows and advanced software solutions redefine the boundaries of trading. Enabled by the synergy of computers, high-speed internet, and sophisticated charting software, traders enjoy real-time access to data analytics and market trends. Within this realm, a rich repository of tools is available, catering to traders' diverse needs with heightened precision and predictive power.
Chart Patterns : Deciphering Market Sentiment:
Chart patterns occupy a pivotal role as visual conduits of market psychology and price action trends. From classic formations like double bottoms to iconic patterns like head and shoulders, these visual representations encapsulate historical price movements and inform future price dynamics. Proactive traders leverage chart patterns to anticipate pivotal reversals and breakout points, weaving together historical trends and human behavioral insights into actionable trading strategies.
Fibonacci Retracements: Unveiling Harmonious Ratios:
At the nexus of mathematics and trading, Fibonacci retracements harmonize the natural ratios discovered by Leonardo of Pisa, known as Fibonacci. These ratios, including the Golden Ratio (0.618) and its derivatives, echo natural proportions that echo throughout nature and financial markets. Traders utilize these retracements to identify potential support and resistance levels, choreographing entry and exit points with a mathematical precision that complements market intuition.
Andrews' Pitchfork: Sculpting Market Trends:
From the annals of technical analysis emerges Andrews' pitchfork—a tool that imparts structure to market trends. Crafted by Dr. Alan Andrews, this method employs three pivotal price points to map out potential trend channels, identify support and resistance zones, and navigate the ebb and flow of market movements. Proactive traders harness this tool's prowess to create strategies that thrive within these discernible channels.
Zig Zag Indicator : Distilling Price Trends:
Navigating the labyrinthine price chart is simplified by the Zig Zag indicator—a tool designed to eliminate market noise and elucidate significant price movements. This indicator employs precise highs and lows to create lines that showcase trends with clarity, ensuring that traders are privy to substantial trends while disregarding minor fluctuations. In this manner, the Zig Zag indicator becomes a beacon amidst market complexity.
A Synergistic Trading Arsenal:
The amalgamation of chart patterns, Fibonacci retracements, Andrews' pitchfork, and the Zig Zag indicator engenders a holistic trading approach of unparalleled potency. While chart patterns unveil market psychology, Fibonacci retracements contribute mathematical precision, Andrews' pitchfork orchestrates trend analysis, and the Zig Zag indicator distills trends from noise, thus harmonizing a comprehensive trading strategy.
Conclusion:
In an era marked by unceasing innovation, success in trading is predicated upon the adept utilization of a multifaceted toolset. The amalgamated prowess of chart patterns, Fibonacci retracements, Andrews' pitchfork, and the Zig Zag indicator constitutes a comprehensive arsenal that empowers traders with foresight, precision, and strategic edge. As the 21st-century trading milieu continues its evolution, mastery over these tools remains pivotal, transforming the intricate dynamics of financial markets into a realm of opportunity and achievement.
TCPLTP
HOW-TO: Auto Harmonic Pattern - Screener [Trendoscope]Hello Everyone,
Here is a short walkthrough on our latest indicator cum screener - Auto Harmonic Pattern Screener. In this video we talk about few things.
Auto Harmonic Pattern Screener and how to use it
Different settings and Chart components
Differences between Auto Harmonic Pattern UltimateX and Screener and how to use them together to find patterns and study them in depth.
Common settings between the scripts and different use cases
This is a premium script which is part of Trendoscope Premium Indicator subscription. Please read the "Author's instructions" section of the script to know how to request for trial and subscription.
Please try and let me know if you have any feedbacks and report if you notice any bugs. Thanks very much for watching the video and using our indicators. Have a good day and enjoy your rest of the weekend :)
ForexEd with £xThe hardest parts of trading:
1. Patiently waiting for the right setup
2. Boldly pulling the trigger on the right setup
3. Calmly accepting the final outcome of the right setup
Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan. If market reacts differently, Make a new plan and trade the new plan.
Good Luck and Good Trading
Happy weekend.
Linking Time with Price LevelThe relationship between time and price level can be observed through the analysis of price charts and technical indicators. Technical analysis involves the use of charts and indicators to identify patterns and trends in price movements. One important aspect of technical analysis is the identification of support and resistance levels, which can help traders make decisions about when to buy or sell a particular asset.
Technical indicators can also be used to analyze the relationship between price and time. For example, moving averages can be used to identify trends in price movements over a specific period of time. The slope of the moving average can indicate the strength of the trend, while the distance between the price and the moving average can indicate the level of deviation from the trend.
In addition to technical indicators, traders also use fundamental analysis to assess the relationship between time and price level. Fundamental analysis involves the study of economic and financial data to identify factors that can influence the price of an asset. For example, changes in interest rates, inflation, and political events can all have an impact on the price of an asset over time.
To summarize, the relationship between time and price level is complex and multifaceted. Traders use a variety of tools and techniques to analyze this relationship, including technical indicators, charts, and fundamental analysis. By understanding the relationship between time and price level, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell a particular asset.
Regarding the development of price ratios, the expected price level and the expected price movement for the wave can be determined by analyzing technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Price Oscillator. The RSI can be used to identify the overbought and oversold conditions of an asset, while the Price Oscillator can indicate the strength of the trend. By analyzing these indicators, traders can develop price ratios and make informed decisions about when to enter or exit a trade.
Finally, it's important to note that the relationship between price and time is not always straightforward. While technical analysis and fundamental analysis can provide valuable insights, they are not foolproof. Traders need to be aware of the limitations of these tools and use them in conjunction with other forms of analysis and risk management strategies.
IDEA!CHALENGGreetings, dear friends.
I wanted to share with you an interesting idea regarding chart labeling. Instead of labeling the chart, I suggest focusing on your trend line and channel.
My analytical tools include the Elliott wave principle, harmonic patterns, chart patterns, and the simple yet powerful trend line.
I appreciate all of my companions and followers who support my ideas.
It is my hope that the information I provide may be useful to you.
Thank you for all of your support and encouragement.
Warm regards,
Mr. Nobody, with two years of experience
STMX Thank you for the usdt- KnowledgeLets look at stmx and we are going to see how u trade the swing high. Now most of the coins I send are at the bottom waiting for the pump (more profit) but if u want to trade a pump this is what u look for:
You will notice that stmx is forming higher highs, you then want to find a position, Look for a period of consolidation on a support level in this case this was 0.00466, 40 hrs of consolidation testing support level 9 times. That is my first entry point.
I included another trade i sent in the bottom which will demonstrate this methodology
The second entry point for those who like to trade pump is on the breakout and retest, you will see we broke out and retested the trendline for 3 hours, then the pump. I presume everyone knows the right way to draw a trendline.
That is it basically, You need to hunt for trades that are "boring" and trade into the excitement.
I included another trade i sent in the bottom so u can see this trading method on a trade i sent
How I use ICT Discount And Premium Strategy For Forex TradingHow I use ICT Discount And Premium Strategy For Forex Trading.
In this video, I explained how I use ICT discount and premium levels for daily bias and also for intraday entry.
If you find this video helpful, give a thumb up, drop a comment, follow me for future updates and also share this video link on your social media timeline.
Fibonacci-Based Moving Average Trading StrategyThe Fibonacci-Based Moving Average Trading Strategy is a simple yet effective approach to trading that utilizes three exponential moving averages (EMAs) with periods based on Fibonacci numbers (5, 8, and 13). This strategy aims to capitalize on price trends and generate profits with minimal risk in any timeframe.
The choice of using Fibonacci numbers (5, 8, and 13) for the EMA periods is based on their close association with the Fibonacci sequence, which is known for its prevalence in nature and financial markets. These specific numbers are believed to enhance the strategy's ability to capture key market movements.
The strategy involves waiting for the EMA 5 to cross the other two EMA levels (8 and 13). When the EMA 5 crosses above the EMA 8 and EMA 13, it generates a buy signal. Conversely, when the EMA 5 crosses below the EMA 8 and EMA 13, it creates a sell signal. The trader will enter into a position accordingly and hold it until a signal against the prevailing trend is generated.
By following this strategy, traders can take advantage of trends and ride profitable price movements while keeping risk to a minimum. The use of EMAs based on Fibonacci numbers provides an added layer of insight and precision to identify potential entry and exit points.
It's important to note that no trading strategy is foolproof, and markets can be unpredictable. While this strategy is relatively straightforward, it's still crucial for traders to exercise caution, manage risk appropriately, and consider other factors such as market conditions, price patterns, and fundamental analysis when making trading decisions.
Scott Carney's "Deep Crab" & the Fields Medal in MathematicsQ: What does the former have to do with the later?
A: The intuition in the former (S. Carney) is born out by the later (A. Avila; Fields Medal - 2014)
From Scott Carney's website;
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"Harmonic Trading: Volume One Page 136
The Deep Crab Pattern™, is a Harmonic pattern™ discovered by Scott Carney in 2001.
The critical aspect of this pattern is the tight Potential Reversal Zone created by the 1.618 of the XA leg and an extreme (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC leg but employs an 0.886 retracement at the B point unlike the regular version that utilizes a 0.382-0.618 at the mid-point. The pattern requires a very small stop loss and usually volatile price action in the Potential Reversal Zone."
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From Artur Avila's Fields Medal Citation;
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"Artur Avila is awarded a Fields Medal for his profound contributions to dynamical systems theory, which have changed the face of the field, using the powerful idea of renormalization as a unifying principle.
Description in a few paragraphs:
Avila leads and shapes the field of dynamical systems. With his collaborators, he has made essential progress in many areas, including real and complex one-dimensional dynamics, spectral theory of the one-frequency Schrödinger operator, flat billiards and partially hyperbolic dynamics.
Avila’s work on real one-dimensional dynamics brought completion to the subject, with full understanding of the probabilistic point of view, accompanied by a complete renormalization theory. His work in complex dynamics led to a thorough understanding of the fractal geometry of Feigenbaum Julia sets.
In the spectral theory of one-frequency difference Schrödinger operators, Avila came up with a global description of the phase transitions between discrete and absolutely continuous spectra, establishing surprising stratified analyticity of the Lyapunov exponent."
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The connection here, as it is related to the specific "Deep Crab" harmonic pattern in trading, between intuition and general, analytical result, is illustrated somewhat simplified (but without distortion).
In essence, Avila has shown that in dynamical systems, in the neighborhood of phase-transitions in the case of one-dimensional (such as: Price) unimodal distributions, after the onset of chaos, there are islands of stability surrounded nearly entirely by parameters that give rise to stochastic behavior where transitions are Cantor Maps - i.e., fractal.
From that point it is an obvious next step to generalize to other self-affine fractal curves , such as the blancmange curve , which is a special case of w=1/2 of the general form: the Takagi–Landsberg curve. The "Hurst exponent"(H) = -log2(w) , which is the measure of the long-term-memory of a time series .
Putting it all together, it is not pure coincidence that a reliable pattern (representation) emerges from intuition (observation) which proves to be a highly stable (reliable) pattern that is most often the hallmark of a near-term, violent transition.
Smart Money Liquidity Grab Or Shift In Market Structure?Look at the Us30, and GBPUSD charts attached to this post, what do you see????
OANDA:GBPUSD
OANDA:US30USD
GBPUSD
Do you see a shift in market structure or Liquidity grab by smart money algorithm?
In financial market trading, one key to determine where the liquidity that the market will run next is located is to ask yourself who are those making money from the current move....
Where are they likely to trail their stops to.
Whatever your answer is, that is the liquidity the algorithm will most likely run first to continue in the intended direction...
In the charts examples attached to this post, market was bullish, then the smart money algorithm drive price lower to break the recent and obvious recent swing low to take out all the sell stops below that low, and induce new traders to go short thinking that the market is now bearish.
But price rebalance in imbalance below the lows and then push higher.
That is a smart money liquidity grab not shift in market structure.
With this understanding, you should now be able to understand that not all structure shift in a bullish or bearish market is a shift in market structure.
The majority are liquidity grabs by smart money algorithm.
Like my idea? Give a like to this post and drop your comment.
For more updates, give me a follow, you can also Dm for further enquiries.