USDJPY - Combination of Three Harmonic Pattern* Gartley Pattern
* Shark Pattern
* Butterfly Patern
The three patterns are inside the inverted symmetrical triangle pattern .
"TA is just a probabilistic analysis- not certainty. Everything is possible. The analysis just points to what is likely probable. TA is not 100% correct." - George Tan
Harmonic Patterns
understand the CRYPTO market from the 10% view ditch retail PT 1here we have the total crypto market cap chart at first glance many will just see a "pull back or simply an engulfing. first thing retail will draw is try to call a random bottom without any price action to follow only hope or for the slightly advanced they will try to find some fib and use a random high to open. WRONG WRONG WRONG
looking at the rules from the chart the number one thing is that higher tf prices must and always come exactly or under an open this is law u can look on any time frame and draw a simple line from a wick and it will match up exactly or very close to a previous open balance of the given trend ! why is this ? because large funds or "they" must always pair orders. it is key to understand that large funds banks, prop firms, are naturally net long so the only way the can get in and out and keep good returns is by selling when retail buys, and buys with retail sells. and like mentioned before these buys or sells coming at a previous open. reason being " they are re-entering their original position to finish a move. or in a "pull back" scenario they are booking profits meaning that they are closing large orders automatically taking the other side of retail positions causing a dip in the market. this how wicks are formed
WICKS ARE NOT A REJECTIN OF PRICE! this will be explained shortly
lets think about the facts of the market and the conundrum retail logic has:
fact:1 90% OF RETAIL TRADERS LOSE MONEY
fact2: 80% of free content and 70% of courses are just teaching you the same recycled garbage "support & resistance " "supply & demand"(s&d zones is literally s&r with lipstick) harmonics, elliot wave, fibs, CANDLE STICK PATTERNS, TREND LINES or worst of all the "break out trader"
Now working off of these key 2 facts lets paint a picture of a world where 10% win and 90% lose
first let me preface this by saying that yes all of these pattern can be found on the chart but all of these patterns have one flaw they always leave a gap in understanding how price is delivered, and leaves traders to take mid probability guesses at the end of the day. this is not to say that money is not made off these concepts im simply pointing out the error in this approach to a market so lets dive in.
if 90% traders lose money and 70-80% of trading content are these retail concepts, then it is safe to assume that all traders are fundamentally trading the same patterns and if large a majority are trading the same patterns shouldn't that mean a larger percentage of traders make money? yes indeed but this is not the case for a number of reasons
REASON#1: these patterns are too simple and easy to trade any body can draw magical support and resistance lines. do you really think large fund traders are opening their charts and finding 3 wicks marking a line saying this is support and resistance ? i think not if trading was that simple and easy everyone would make money but once again we know this is not true.
REASON#2: these pattern dont give a real understanding of the market or how would large funds enter exit or book profits. at best s&R /s&D just gives you areas of accumulation, and cant tell you when price should move or even gives signs of price getting ready to move instead the trader is stuck on the side waiting for a "rejection" at a magical line they drew on there charts. how can you understand price from this logic. then for the times traders enter off of a "rejection" and lose that given trade their best reason behind why is that the s/r area just failed or "broke out" in the opposite direction. this lack of understanding/wishful thinking leaves traders to believe that the markets are random and price has no set rules. when this is simply not true. if price was random what will keep it from falling to zero or shooting to the sky at any given moment. there is always rules, structure , and control in every market.
REASON#3 : you cant gather accurate data based on a random outcome if i was to ask any trader what is the probability of there given support line OR the probability of a given candle stick pattern such as the a bull/ bear flag they couldnt answer this question. this a major issue without accurate info for your case study you cant improve on your strategy. you cant find high probability set ups. then we all know what happens after s/r isnt good enough because their lack of understanding ... INDIDCATORS
REASON #4: all retail logic is subjective with no hard set rules of how price should move or high probability outcomes of what price is expected to do
REASON #5 INDICATORS ARE LAGGING: most to all indicators are lagging indicators meaning they only print a result or show "divergence" after price has showed its hand so while retail has 10 different indicators because there logic doesnt help them predict the market or understand price action. they use lagging indicators that FOLLOWS AND PRINTS AFTER PRICE. how ironic is this , most people think that crypto is too volatile and random and you need indicators to help make decision or where price is headed this is simply false if you can see the set up in real time you will get the alert before any indicator. not to mentions 9/10 the traders given indicators doesnt always give the same signal. so what do you do when you have an price at support, macd alerting a sell, an evening star formed (BULLISH PATTERN) and a rsi saying overbought? see how this can be confusing and leave you with no clue what to do. even then what happens when price is showing you bullish behavior while all of your indicators are flashing sell, and you end up taking a sell to lose the trade because you believed in the holy grail indicator set up.
By now you should be able to see the huge problem with this approach to the market. so now lets explore my "theory" or approach to the market and see if i can correct all these problems WITH NO CONTRADICTIONS
1. the market is not random at all
if the market was random there would be no way to profit on a mechanical level
2. the market is a living creature.
3 just like humans the market has habits and rules it must follow to live
4. there is always somebody in control & THEYRE TOO BIG TO HIDE THEIR FOOT STEPS!
lets dig deeper before we start lets remember the natural law of polarity. if one thing is true then in turn the opposite must be true. simple if then statements should equate to one statement of truth with no contradictions. like mentioned previously there is no way a market can be random how in the world would hedge fund be able to offer a set rate of return in a random market. who would put such large sums of money in a casino like environment. with this understanding there should be key things or signs to give us a high probability in which way the market would move, and their is exactly that. (we will get to this in part two) So if the markets are not random then we should be able to see signs or repeatable patterns. this we know is true ie candle stick patterns. expanding on this belief this must also mean the market has habits just like any other living creature these habits easily identifiable once we look for them. next the market must follows rules to live this idea is backing of the thesis that markets are not random, in order for anything to survive it must have some type of discipline. Lastly their is always somebody in control and "they" are way to large to hide their footsteps. where is the proof for this??
ex#1 if you open any chart of your choosing on any time you and mark all wicks you will quickly realize that all wicks are exactly or very close to an previous open on that tf. this is most easily seen on higher timeframes (pt2 will show many examples) as stated in the beginning the reason behind this occurrence is that the people or algo thats moving price loves to get back in at previous opens of large moves or opens right before the " break out". if you take the time to go on your charts you will see its always been there. this is true for reversals as well but that wont be covered on this post for now im laying down the foundation. another reason for price to come back to previous opens is that this is the easiest way to pair orders and 9/10 at these key open levels retail will have limit orders making it easy for "them" to get out/ book profit.
ex#2 if you take a look you will see that crypto always move during london session with the low almost always coming in within 3:am then a pull back / reversal at 5:am to continue into ny open at 7/8 am if you open any chart you can clearly see the low or high of the day being set around 3 then some type pf pullback/ reversal to continue with original move at 7/8 am with the high/ low of 7/8 am NY SESION staying in tact for the rest of the day. also if the pull back didnt happen by 8 most likely at 9:00 am it will occur. now the reason is due to the natural way funds flow in any market london is the most liquid session so traders are able to move price then from 8-11 am is an overlap, which will give a reason for price to pull back/ reverse allowing ny traders to enter and also catch the move of the day. from there the next key time is 8:00 pm. you will notice price always does a fake out or run up in the opposite direction during these times. why ? to entice retail to think they are missing a move fomo in only profit for a little bit then loose it all at london open/ session . its key to note that if price is moving in the opposite way of the trend around 8/9 pm that is a sign of time divergence (will cover clearly in pt 2) , and also a continuation sign. the reason its a sign of time divergence is because large position traders are not in the market most traders around this time are not on their chart to move the market. large funds dont trade 24/7 dont be fooled by this move its just a trap and a easy way for "them" to entice you to take the opposite of "their" trades. to finish this point its a sign of continuation also for the simple fact that if price ran in the given trend all day there wouldnt be much room to take positions at good prices and price will leave the "market movers" which we know cant happen. with these two examples we can see 1 the predictability of the markets leaving randomness out, we can see the market happens, we can see how the markets rest just like any other creature, and lastly see how "they" control and leave footprints on the chart without most people even seeing it.
now i will like to explain what are wicks in relativity to how they are formed and also fits into this understanding. wicks are not REJECTIONS thats retail ignorance. going back to the fact that 90% lose money this must also mean that 10% of the winners HAVE 90% OF THE MONEY IN THE MARKET. this must be true if this doesnt make sense or you cant grasp this ask yourself if 90% of people loose money where is these funds going ? TO THE 10% very simple concept and if not the 10 % who else could possibly have the money ?? exactly ! so if the 10% have 90% of the money how cold price get "rejected" if there is no opposing force to reject price. do you really think that out of that small 10% of winners they would fight for price and reject each others orders when its alot easier to work together or take to the same trade ideas and take the larger percentage of traders money.
also remember for this rejection to happen this must mean an entity buying or selling at the wick (at price forming the wick in real time) and we know retail cant move price. i hope this is starting to make sense. this another reason why retail concepts doesnt work.
instead a wick is simply accumulations at premium prices and profit booking. picture this the 10 % opens a position at premium price in the form of a wick priofits 5,10 even 15% profit with a large position size at some point they want to book profits. so what happens they close orders at previous open of a move where there is liquidity resting, and when this happens their large positions automatically goes against the trend simply being because the size of their orders moves prices. so now if most or all of the 10% does this at the same time or close to the same time what will we see on a chart? a wick or even a huge wick, which retail will think its a rejection, some break out traders enter, some traders panic and close making it even easier for them to exit and cause more pressure in the wick formation. i hope you can start to see the real beauty of this market and understand how prices really moves. this is the foundation of my approach to the market i will probably do a 7 part series showing live examples previous examples and go in great detail to further prove my point
BACK to the charts if you look u can see a classic jefe bear pattern that just formed( will explain this pattern next lesson ) and the 3d/ and 1w open has not yet been reached showing signs of further downward movement REMEMBER ALL OPENS MUST GET HIT ALL ORDERS ,MUST BE PAIRED
now once the 3d open has been hit we can look for sign of reversal until the bears are in control
key take aways 3d open still not hit and 1d open are still not hit with 1w jefe playing out meaning market will follow 1w strucutre untill a open is met
WHATEVER TIMEFRAME U FIND OPENS BEING HIT OR ORDERS BEING PAIRED THEN 80-90% OF THE TIME THEY WILL TARGET OPEN BALANCES ON THAT TIME FRAME do dont get faked out by a wick and by now you should know how wicks work
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BA- Break out over the Breaks outsNYSE:BA
BA has already hit the target price range at lower time frame.
if you remember I posted yesterday an update about BA’s break out of its resistance and possible target price in the lower time frame “if you will open a NEW position”.
"TA is just a probabilistic analysis- not certainty. Everything is possible. The analysis just points to what is likely probable. TA is not 100% correct." - George Tan
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
The importance of having a Trading PlanGreetings, my fellow traders.
Today, I would like to share with you guys my thoughts on the importance of having a trading plan.
First of all, lets start with a few questions in which you can ask yourself, to help further understand what you want in your own trading plan.
1. Which pair(s) am I going to trade?
2. Which timeframe works the best for me? The 4h chart? Multi-TF analysis from the 4h down to the 15min chart?
3. Which trading session is the most convenient for me to trade in based on my timezone?
4. What kind of market conditions do I want to trade in?
5. Am I more of a swing trader or a scalper? What is my personality type? Can I hold trades for long? Or would I prefer to be in and out quick?
6. What is my strategy and entry/exit plan?
And there you have it. These are the questions I asked myself when I was developing my own trading plan, which of course sparked a chain of other questions I had to ask myself. Give yourself some time to think about those questions, write down your answers to it, calibrate it a little, and STICK TO IT! Your trading plan should always be systematic and mechanical, where as long as if one of your conditions to take a trade is not met, ABORT!
But wait, so why is having all these important? Why do you NEED a trading plan?
Well, the real question is, why not? Having a trading plan ensures that you leave your emotions out of trading. Trading is like running your own business, investing in yourself. Do you really want to do all that, without having a plan? The common human emotions that come up during trading - like greed, fear and hope - causes havoc, so having a good way to manage them when they inevitably arise can help you overcome many common trading pitfalls.
Having a clear trading plan also gives you confidence to trade. Taking a trade in which you set the rules for yourself, and know it's profitable, feels good. Having a trading plan lets you manage your own expectations from the outcome of any given trade. It lets you see and tell yourself that even though the current trade may not be a win, you know that you will be profitable in the long run, because of all those hard work you put in back-testing your strategy and setting rules for it. And all that translates into you not giving yourself headache from a losing trade, allowing negative emotions emerge and affect the next trade that you take. You'll NEVER want to let your emotions from a bad day at work, arguments with friends/family, come into trading(trust me, I know). When approaching a field like trading where personal decisions translate into profits or losses, having a clear-cut and easy-to-follow trading plan can make the difference between success and failure.
I can go on and on about why traders need a trading plan. But after reading what I wrote so far about what's at stake here, do I really need to say more?
Are you ready to be profitable?
Thank you for taking the time to read this, I hope I've not made this too lengthy. If this post does get somewhere and some of you have any questions/need help, I'll be very happy to receive your message on chat. As always, stay safe and take care.
What to Do with Consolidation Patterns in BitcoinConsolidation is about the turnover of stock, first and foremost. When the investors who bought more recently replace those who want to sell (and by implication have high expectations for the BTC:USDT to go higher from current levels), downward pressure on the stock is replaced by demand.
This technical analysis (TA) pattern predicts a sudden and sharp price increase, and when formed properly is one of the more reliable indicators. While not always present in most stocks, when you’re certain that a consolidation pattern has formed, it can represent an opportunity to take significant profits.
On the trading chart, the BTC:USDT price will look like it’s forming a cup and handle. The indicator is generated in the following phases, and in this exact order:
1) Before the cup forms.
First approach what will eventually become the cup pattern. This approach is flat and sideways trading, in a very tight price range.
2) BTC:USDT fall steeply, forming the left side of the cup.
Shares fall relatively steeply and quickly in price as some investors grow tired of the lack of volatility in the stock. This drop usually occurs in a matter of days and forms what will eventually look like the left edge of the cup and handle pattern.
3) Sideways trading after the drop forms the bottom of the cup.
BTC:USDT eventually stop falling and enter a tight sideways range for several days. During this time, many sellers stop selling because they’re unwilling to unload their BTC:USDT at these prices. At the same time, buyers see value, thus creating a price floor that limits any further downside. Shares neither spike higher or lower as the bottom of the cup forms.
4) BTC:USDT price rises, forming the right side of the cup.
For almost the exact amount of the fall (which formed the left side of the cup), and just as quickly, BTC:USDT will jump higher. The trading chart will now show price activity that looks as if a cup pattern has formed. Sudden demand overpowers the last of the sellers who would take the lower price, and after they are gone, BTC:USDT respond to even minimal buying by moving higher.
5) Reactionary fall.
After the sudden price spike, some shareholders who had been on the sidelines move back in to take advantage of the price jump. Even the buyers get spooked by the speed of the move and aren’t interested in paying these “expensive” prices. BTC:USDT fall back lower, although only partially. They settle slightly lower than the high in the latest price spike, yet well above the bottom of the cup pattern.
6) The handle forms.
After the spike and the reactionary sell off, BTC:USDT enter a narrow sideways trading range, forming the handle of the cup pattern. During this time, old shareholders turn over in favor of new ones, so that an increasing percentage of investors in this company expect good things from the BTC:USDT price going forward and aren’t likely to sell.
Think of the handle of the consolidation pattern like a spring that is slowly coiling. The greater percent of shareholder turnover during this time period, the more pronounced the subsequent upward move will be and the more reliable the indicator.
How To Draw Bat Harmonic Pattern In this simple lesson, we will learn together how to draw a bat pattern
About the School of Harmonic Analysis
The harmonic analysis school is about certain patterns that occur on the chart that give an indication of a reversal in the trend, using Fibonacci ratios, and it is considered one of the most important schools in technical analysis that many analysts rely on in the world.
The school consists of more than one model, but in brief, we will learn the most important and most frequent models on the chart.
Today with the first pattern, which is the bat pattern.. Please follow the instructions on the chart and for any questions, please put a comment
Acceleration Bands Acceleration Bands
Serve as a trading envelope that factors
The standard setting is 20 candles.
They can be used across any time period as breakout indicators outside these bands.
Acceleration Bands are plotted around a simple moving average as the midpoint, and the upper and lower bands are of equal distance from this midpoint.
Can be used in both growth and value trading strategies to show the potential breakouts.
EURUSD - Why this worked nicely.🎯This worked nicely and in this video, I explain my thoughts and why others made some mistakes.
✅ Traders, you are welcome to share your charts, thoughts and questions lets discuss it.
Wish you a good hunt !!
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Previous analysis:
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❗❗ This is Pre-plan
That means my view can change, depending on how the price will arrive at the level and what will be happening on the M30 in my level of interest for entry. Then I will decide if I will enter or not. So please don't just blindly follow this. The FX market is a quickly changing environment and it requires full focus on the levels for the precise entry with low risk.
❗❗ DISCLAIMER
We are the only one person who is responsible for our health, relationships, success, and money in our life's. So taking a risk on the markets based on this idea is only and only your decision. You deserve the profit and you are responsible for your potential loss. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The author of the analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage.
❗❗ Legal Risk Disclosure
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
AUDUSD - Learn from my mistake🎯I previously shared an idea where I was expecting the price to pull back down, Which was wrong. here is why.
This is a pre-plan based on the COT and Retail positions. M, W, D, H4 Time-frames trends and Parallel Channels. I will execute on the M30 at the institutional level if all conditions are met.
✅ Traders, you are welcome to share your charts, thoughts and questions lets discuss it.
Wish you a good hunt !!
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
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❗❗ This is Pre-plan
That means my view can change, depending on how the price will arrive at the level and what will be happening on the M30 in my level of interest for entry. Then I will decide if I will enter or not. So please don't just blindly follow this. The FX market is a quickly changing environment and it requires full focus on the levels for the precise entry with low risk.
❗❗ DISCLAIMER
We are the only one person who is responsible for our health, relationships, success, and money in our life's. So taking a risk on the markets based on this idea is only and only your decision. You deserve the profit and you are responsible for your potential loss. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The author of the analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage.
❗❗ Legal Risk Disclosure
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
OBV & ETH - Charts don't lie. Banksters and politicians do...So, if you are new to the markets you might not know. If you are old, you do. Wall Street uses "weapons of mass destruction" against the average person. And banksters are running the world printing money enslaving the youth and developing nations. The world is voting with their wallets and are converting their worthless government IOUs (FIAT, dollar, pesos, rubles etc) to True and Honest Money.
And crypto assets, unlike physical gold and silver, DOES NOT NEED AN ARMY! There is no physical gold to hide or protect. All you need to remember is 12 to 24 words per cold crypto wallet (or have them stored in a bank vault in a way that nobody would know it's your recovery secret phrase for your wallet, ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD! Self control of your wallet is self control of your destiny. Knowledge and truth is pure energy for good. Manipulation and bad actors are evil energy that needs to be purified. Bitcoin, the Crypto King, and Ethereum ETC, the crypto Queen are dominating. The world just doesn't know. Yet.
The crooks in charge of world fiduciary duties have failed. They are being voted out. Trust the charts, trust yourself and verify everything else. An open, honest, verifiable ledger is the world savior from the toxic bomb set off in 1971. 50 years later, we have debt jubilee. Welcome Physical Bitcoin! Welcome Physical Ethereum. Bye, bye crooked Wall Street, CME, LME and all the scum in between us and our money and investments!
TradingView is the world leader in providing amazing data. One indicator seldom used to detect market manipulation is OBV.
Let's look at that in this tutorial for New World Honest Trading Views!
OBV clearly tells us Ethereum is bullish for the last 10 days although the price has been suppressed. What happen next on break of resistance. Let's make this a teaching moment for all your readers. There are NO WRONG answers, just different points of views. Based on analysis on the latest good data you have and let's chat here!
Thank you Bitcoin, Ethereum and TradingView and all the good rocket scientists out there. The new World "Law Makers and Regulatory Viewers". And Rocket Launchers and Landers! LOL
JustCharts! WOW! Wild $T1mes alright!
Bat Harmonic Pattern - Advanced AnalysisIn this series of chart patterns, we have taken a look at the more traditional ones. However, we have not yet discussed harmonic patterns.
Harmonic patterns form a part of the numerous chart patterns available for the identification of reversal points. The practice of trading using harmonic patterns is often defined as "Harmonic Trading".
We felt like it was an appropriate time to discuss the popular bat harmonic pattern, defined as "The most accurate pattern in the entire harmonic trading arsenal" by Scott M. Carney (1).
"Suspicions in thoughts are like bats among birds."
- Translated from Francis Bacon.
1. Introduction
Unlike most traditional chart patterns, these patterns do not require breakouts of the price to be traded and involve the usage of precise Fibonacci ratios (highlighted below) for the identification of harmonic patterns. This makes harmonic patterns less subjective and pretty spooky. Wow.
1.1 Fibonacci Ratios
Fibonacci ratios are key components of harmonic patterns.
Fibonacci ratios are obtained from the Fibonacci sequence, whose n th element is obtained by adding the two previous numbers of the sequence, that is:
Fib(n) = Fib(n-1) + Fib(n-2)
The sequence is as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233..., and exhibits various characteristics.
One characteristic of interest is given by the ratios between elements in the sequence. The ratio of one element in the sequence with the following one approximately equals 0.618, while the ratio of one element in the sequence with the previous one approximately equals 1.618. These two values are often defined as golden ratios, with 1.618 being denoted as "Phi" (upper-case P) and 0.618 as "phi" (lower-case p).
The ratio between elements separated by two positions returns 0.382 and 2.618 respectively, calculating the ratio using a higher separation would return the series of Fibonacci ratios. These ratios are also given by raising the golden number with specific exponents.
0.618^4 = 0.146
0.618^3 = 0.236
0.618^2 = 0.382
0.618^0.5 = 0.786
0.618^0.25 = 0.886
0.618^0 = 1
The rationale behind the usage of Fibonacci ratios with harmonic patterns (and other methodologies in general) is given by the presence of the Fibonacci Sequence in nature and certain organisms and structures, but more importantly in human behavior. If security prices reflect investor behaviors, it seems logical to find a connection with Fibonacci numbers. This is a common rationale used by technical analysts to justify the usage of Fibonacci ratios.
A few studies aimed to explain a potential connection between the Fibonacci sequence and financial markets and evidence obtained by Bhattacharya & Kumar provide further incisive research on this connection (2).
2. Harmonic Bat Patterns
The bat harmonic pattern is built from 4 segments connecting points X, A, B, C, and D, each one located at a local maxima/minima of the price. The relative distance between the segments is used to determine the validity of a bat pattern; these rules are defined as follows:
1 - Segment AB retraces within 38.2% and 50% of the XA segment (some less strict conditions only require a retracement within 38.2% and 61.8%).
2 - Segment BC retraces within 38.2% and 88.6% of the AB segment.
3 - Segment CD retraces within 161.8% and 261.8% of the segment BC.
4 - Segment AD is approximately equal to 88.6% of segment XA.
For the pattern to be valid, the vertex given by point C must be confirmed. It is also interesting to note that the bat pattern can possess an internal AB = CD pattern.
A reversal is more likely to occur within the "potential reversal zone" (PRZ). Traders can have different methods for identification however Fibonacci retracements are commonly used, with an extremity of the PRZ located at 88.6% of the internal retracement of XA and another at 161.8% of BC. Another method identifies the PRZ within 78.6% and 100% of the internal retracement of XA.
Some traders wait for additional confirmation before entering a position such as the occurrence of internal reversal patterns, oscillator divergences, or for the price to evolve outside the PRZ such that it implies that a reversal is occurring.
3. Stop Loss & Take Profits
Various techniques exist to set take profits and stop-loss levels during the formation of a bat pattern. Some traders place the stop loss at or a few ticks below X, which can lead to reduced risk but a higher risk of a premature trigger of the stop-loss. The usage of a very tight stop loss is mentioned by Scott M. Carney.
A take profit can be set at point A. Additional Fibonacci retracements might be used for partial exits.
4.Practical Examples
Bearish Bat pattern on USDJPY15, we apply Fibonacci retracements to the segment XA and use the levels 0.5, 0.382, 0.236 as partial take profits while level 0 exits the entirety of a position.
Bullish Bat pattern under completion on ERGOUSDT 4h, the price breaks the level situated at point B is a good sign for a potential of reach of the PRZ.
5. Observations
Oscillator divergences occurring when the price is within the PRZ can be an additional confirmation of a potential reversal occurring.
We found no studies proving data that the bat harmonic pattern is superior to other harmonic patterns.
One study by Krzysztof Bednarz highlights the profitability of the bat pattern in a trading period of 27 days (3).
Bulkowski shares statistics on how often price turns at point D (4). For Bullish Bats, the price reverses at point D 91% of the time, for Bearish Bat patterns the price reverses at point D 86% of the time. Super spooky...
References
(1) Carney, S. M. (2010). Harmonic Trading, Volume Two: Advanced Strategies for Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets. Pearson Education.
(2) Bhattacharya, S., & Kumar, K. (2006). A computational exploration of the efficacy of Fibonacci Sequences in technical analysis and trading. Annals of Economics and Finance, 7(1), 185.
(3) Bednarz, K. (2013). Taking investment decisions on the futures contracts market with the application of Bat harmonic pattern – the increased efficiency of investment.
(4) Bulkowski, T. N. (2021). Encyclopedia of chart patterns. John Wiley & Sons.
price action patterns you need to know ( part 6 ) hi my friends ,
i'll share with you some patterns which can help you in trading ( part 6 )
Ascending Channel Pattern is a continuation pattern appear in the pullback and after the breakout of the Channel that will be a good signal to go long again ( bull )
Descending Channel Pattern is a continuation pattern appear in the pullback and after the breakout of the Channel that will be a good signal to go short again . ( bear )
note : note : both of them ar continuation patterns .
please support me with like and follow me for more ideas .
price action patterns you need to know ( part 5 ) hi my friends ,
i'll share with you some patterns which can help you in trading ( part 5 )
the bull flag is a continuation pattern appear in the pullback and after the breakout of the flag that will be a good signal to go long again
the bear flag is a continuation pattern appear in the pullback and after the breakout of the flag that will be a good signal to go short again .
note : note : both of them ar continuation patterns .
please support me with like and follow me for more ideas .
HOW-TO: Auto Harmonic Pattern - Ultimate [Trendoscope]Thanks for watching the video. I will just highlight the key differences between Auto-Harmonic-Patterns-V2 and Auto-Harmonic-Pattern-Ultimate-Trendoscope . Most of the other information is already available in the description of the script. Please read through them and let me know if you have any questions.
Key improvements on new version are:
▶ Whole pattern scanning logic is rewritten based on pine v5 feature to make it more efficient. It uses libraries and other features of pine 5 such as while loop to enhance performance of the scanning
▶ Zigzags - not using multi level zigzags as we found it to be inconsistent and often buggy - specially for harmonic patterns.
▶ Wait for confirmation flag is removed permanently. @CryptoArch_ has convinced me that we should not use this for harmonic patterns
▶ Search depth - Higher search depth and vairable search depth based on zigzag
▶ Optimized target and trailing based on each individual patterns
▶ More options for enabling/disabling patterns
▶ Support and resistence information and ability to use it for pattern filtering
▶ Improved stats for open and closed trades
Why Risk Management is so important ? (read)Hello traders, I'm making this post in order to help the community, most of you focus to much in technical analysis but let's take back to basics a put things clear.
Before continuing reading make sure to give a like this will help the community use proper risk management.
Okay let's begin.
For every trade that you take, there is a certain scenario playing out. The moment that you clicked, for that moment of time, there were a certain number of market participants buying a certain amount and there were a certain number of market participants selling . Do you believe that the same participants transacting when you clicked for one trade, are the same market participants transacting when you clicked for another trade? Absolutely not; it is an impossibility. Every moment there exists market participants entering and exiting , anything can happen.
Now let's talk about simple math : This is simply a conceptual series of 10 trades, taken one after the other from a beginner perspective
let's us act as a beginner: if at the beginning you risk more than expected then it will take you a lot of work to recover from that DD%. Make sure to have a proper risk modelling and follow the rules to survive. New traders execute trades with certainties '' this loos good , I will risk more'' . ''I will risk more in this one because I need to recover my previous loss'' . ''I lost the previous one i will risk less''
Here is where the problem occurs:
When you modify parameters in your risk modeling it will have a strong impact in the outcome. what happen in you risk 3 % in the 5 first trades and you end up losing ? you will end up in serious problems. What if you risk 2 in the first trades and you end up losing and then you say ok I will risk less because I'm losing to much and that trade end up making a 1 to 6 risk reward ratio.Hope this example was clear.
Now Let us say for example that you took 10 trades with proper risk management ? the outcome is totally different.
As you can see , we risk the same amount every time and we only need few trades to make decent profits. Proper risk modelling will allow you to have losing trades and still making profit. you can have a poor win rate like in this example and still end up positive. The only difference between the first trader and the second one is that in fact one has a trade by trade approach and the second has a series per trade approach. This might be hard to understand but if you really want to continue in the long you must use a proper risk modelling system.
Here is where the solution is :
EVERY TRADE IS UNIQUE , ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.
MANAGE YOUR EXPOSURE OR YOU WILL HAVE NOTHING LEFT TO MANAGE.
PRO traders understand that in order to have results they must adopt a series per trade approach
Please do follow and comment your thoughts. let me know in the comment section what do you think about it .
Who wants a CUP of tea? There is enought for all my followers =DThe CUP and HANDLE pattern occurs after a bullish trend. The cup forms a round bottom and the price comes back to the previous peak. Then, the HANDLE zone is formed with a small descending period.
It is expected that, after this pattern, a strong UPWARD movement will come.
Goodluck!
Trading Chaos By Bill Williams | Part 1Hello, everyone!
Today we gonna start the series of articles about the "Trading Chaos" by Bill Williams(BW) . He has the unusual theory abut how the markets play out. After this concept learning I am going to trade with his techniques and test this trading method. Please, subscribe and give us a like if you are interested in studying Trading Chaos. If you are familiar with this theory and used it in practice, please, write your opinion about it in the comment section.
Let's start!
In the first chapter BW explains why the most of traders are in the wrong side of the market.
There are a lot of strategies which use the linear method for the market price predicting, but the market is not a linear system, because it formed by the human behavior, which was born from chaos.
The fractal geometry approximates the chaos in our world and, in particular, on the market. The fractal is the element of chaos and we will study how to identify and use it on the market in the next chapters.
What you need to know now?
1.Classical technical analysis does not work because of the linear approach which it use.
2.Mechanical trading systems which provides the automatic trading does not work too with the same reason.
3.Market is the child of chaos and we need nonlinear methods, which we will consider in the next parts.
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
Harmonics tutorial. The Bearish Gartley.Harmonics are beautiful things. But what are they?
Harmonics are repeating patterns that can be found in markets all across all markets. They represent repeat patterns of human psychology.
The gartley is one of the most reliable harmonics that there is.
The gartley harmonic starts at X.
The first impulse location is referred to as A.
It typically does a 618 retrace to make the B.
Then it retrace back towards a again; somewhere between 382 and 886 of a retrace of the A-B impulse. This is the C.
The final move is approximately a 786 retrace of the macro structure usually near a candle close and not always exactly at the 786 line. Just very near it. This last location is the D.
X to A to B to C to D.
Bitcoin has just created and xabcd bearish gartley. We are at the arrow on the right side right now. We just rejected at the candle close arrow you can see on the left side of the screen.
So...
Does the bearish gartley play out? Time will tell. You must look for coinciding variables.
There is bearish divergence on the 3day chart right now on multiple oscillators. I'm inclined to say we are in a bearish gartley right now.
Good luck bulls.
My Favorite Trading StrategyToday I go over my favorite trading strategy that I use every day in the market. I go in detail exactly how I trade this strategy with two examples. I hope you guys enjoyed this video and I hope you can use it to make you some money. I challenge you guys to back test it and try it on your own trades. Here are some rules/notes that I use while trading this strategy.
Strategy rules/notes:
- 5 minute chart
- liquidated options on the stock
- stop loss at the high/low of the first candle
- only use on stocks with high volume
- the moves on these stocks usually last until 7-9am (west coast time)
- make sure 2/1 or 3/1 risk to reward is in place
- you must only win 34/100 trades to be profitable with 1/2 risk to reward
I hope this strategy treats you guys well. Have great rest of the weekend and make sure to leave a comment with suggestions or requests for other videos. Thanks!!
Fourier: Interpreting and Over-interpreting Frequency AnalysisGreetings to all!
In this post, I'd like to share some thoughts on frequency analysis based on Fourier transform.
This mathematical method breaks down data into cyclical constituents (frequency components). Then the importance of each frequency component in the original data is expressed as the square of its amplitude, that is, power . Some time ago I published a Pine Script implementation of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm. I made it specially designed to be used for filtering data based on its frequency content. The concept of FFT filtering is well known and quite simple (for detail, see the link to my script below).
When it comes to frequency analysis , that's a whole different story. Using the power versus FFT frequency plot (i.e., the spectrum ) to study the data is an extremely popular analytical technique in science and technology. But with financial data, it is tougher than it sounds. When dealing with noisy, non-stationary and overall uncertain price data, the FFT never works as well as it does in math textbooks.
Here, to illustrate the capabilities, limitations, and some myths of frequency analysis, I generated artificial price data, applied an FFT to each price column, and plotted a power spectrum as a function of time (i.e. a spectrogram ). The spectrogram shows frequency information along the vertical axis. The lowest frequency content is displayed at the bottom, the highest frequency content is displayed at the top. Frequencies are given as the number of cycles per sample size (256 bars in the above chart). Power levels are defined by the color map shown to the right. As for the generated data, it is basically a random walk with a few non-random constituents added at given time intervals (sinusoidal functions and a gap).
Now let's discuss a few aspects seen in the chart:
1. True periodicity
Starting on a high note, if there is real oscillatory behavior in the data (see the green and red areas in the above chart), the FFT can reveal this quite well. The problem is that the frequency resolution is heavily influenced by the sample size. For example, with a sample size of 64 price bars, it is impossible to resolve cycles longer than, you guessed it, 64 bars. It should also be noted that the ideal deterministic sinusoidal functions shown in the above chart can never be found in real market data.
2. Discontinuities
If there is a gap, it's bad. Gaps, that is, discontinuities in the data, are prominent features that have broad and smooth frequency spectra that can overshadow other features. If you google "Fourier transform of a step function", you can see what I mean. Thus, if a gap occurs somewhere within the sample window, the Fourier spectrum is unlikely to be reliable.
3. Random walk
This is not surprising, but even purely random data can produce rich frequency content. It is even difficult to tell from the spectrogram where the purely-random area changes into the one containg a sinusoid. (Well, if we accept the random walk theory of markets, the last comment does not make much sense. But here we are talking about syncretic data).
The situation, however, becomes much more fun if we analyze the change in data per bar (i.e., data - data ), rather than the actual data. In the case of a random walk, these changes are purely ... well, random. And it is known from textbooks that the Fourier spectrum of random noise contains only noise. However, in areas containing sine, there is an order in the data. In other words, the data is autocorrelated. As a result, the FFT spectra of the data reveal the corresponding frequency components way above the noise level. In this sense, Fourier analysis may seem as a potential tool to to test market efficiency. (There is even a Fourier-based version of the Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity of time series, but that is a different story.) However, I am not aware if it can somehow outperform the more commonly used tests.
Conclusion
In the context of financial time series, the Fourier transform is often associated with the estimation of marked cycles. I think that's why it has become one of the most polarizing technical tools out there. While it is certainly a powerful math tool, it is helpful to know its limitations. Can one capitalize on the revealed qualitative information about the "cycle" periods? Regardless of how to think about the concept of market cycles, I don't think so. But could the Fourier transform be potentially useful in general for analyzing price data? Definitely yes!
See below for how to use FFT to filter data:
H&S Pattern can be either horizontal or sloping up/down neckline
( """ The pattern consists of a head (the second and the highest peak) and 2 shoulders (lower peaks) and a neckline (the line which connects the lowest points of the two troughs and represents a support level). The neckline may be either horizontal or sloping up/down. The signal is more reliable when the slope is down rather than up.
The pattern is confirmed when the prices broke below the neckline after forming the second shoulder. Once it happens, the currency pair should start a downtrend. So, a sell order is put below the neckline. To get the target measure the distance between the highest point of the head and the neckline. This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.
source FBS