SILVER BULLET STRATEGY USING SMART MONEY CONCEPTHere on this video i show you how you can use silver bullet strategy to make profit in the market . This strategy is very simple and you need to follow the rule very well .
Harmonic Patterns
HOW TO INDENTIFY INSTITUTIONAL CANDLESHere in this video i show you how you can trade using institutional candles so you can make more profit and stop losing much. Watch the video and see how it works.
HOW TO TRADE NEW YORK SESSION WITH SMART MONEY CONCEPTHere is show you how to trade New York session using smart money concept so you can make more profit . I explained some of setting you can apply . So try to practices very well before using it o real account. Use money management
HOW TO TRADE LONDON SESSION SMART MONEY CONCEPTHere i show you how you can trade london session using smart money concept . Understanding the session will help you to trade at appropriate time and maximize profit. Use money management
Analyzing Market Trends and FED Interest Rate Decisions "SPX"The daily chart above highlights FED interest rate cut decisions with vertical lines. I've used the DJI ticker instead of SPX, as it provides a more comprehensive representation of the overall market, unaffected by the dominance of the Magnificent Seven.
My analysis focuses on monthly candle peaks (indicating overbought conditions) and lows (indicating oversold conditions), as well as direction reversals. This cycle repeats, forming higher highs and higher lows. By identifying these patterns, we can determine the market direction, which is either trending upward (green) or downward (red).
Now we know the direction where the market is heading. Its either trending to form a new higher high OR new higher low.
With that understanding, when we plot vertical lines on FED decision days, the direction has not changed. HOWEVER, the decision is accelerating the market direction to its targeted price(either higher high or higher low).
The above guidance is for swing traders for a duration of about 2/3 weeks. Intraday traders can benefit this by looking at days high and low before decision announcement and knowing where the market is generally headed.
As a trader, I utilize custom-built screener tables that cascade data across multiple timeframes and stocks/sectors. This unique approach provides a fascinating big-picture perspective, highlighting strong stocks and sectors.
Reach out to me OR follow me for further insights.
Happy Trading!!
HOW TO INDENTIFY HIGH PROBABILITY TRADING SETUPHere on this video i show you how you can trade using high probability trading setup so that you can win more that loss less . So you need to practice it very well before using your real account. Use money management
SMART MONEY CONCEPT IN FOREX Here i show you smart money concept you can practice and trade with the combination of supply and demand and also liquidity .So try to practice before going real account. Use money management
LONG TERM INVESTMENTS FOR BIG COMPANIES !! LONG TERM !TRADING CAN CHANGE YOUR LIFE !!
META - APPLE - AMAZON - SPX - SPY - TESLA - NVIDIA - JP MORGAN - RIVIAN - LUCID
AVGO - HOOD - ROCKETLAB - AFFIRM - GOOGLE - SOFI - MICROSOFT - META -TSM - CRM - AMD
QCOM - BAC - AMEX - DISCOVER FOREX EURUSD - GBPUSD - USDJPY BTC
Key Considerations for Trading Forex, BTC, and Stocks
Trading in financial markets, whether it's Forex, Bitcoin (BTC), or stocks, involves a unique set of challenges and opportunities. Here are crucial points to keep in mind before diving into these markets:
For Forex Trading:
Leverage: Forex markets offer high leverage, which can amplify both gains and losses. Understand your risk tolerance and use leverage cautiously.
Market Hours: Forex markets are open 24/5, which means opportunities and risks are constant. Consider when you trade in relation to major market sessions (London, New York, Tokyo).
Volatility: Currency pairs can be highly volatile, especially around economic news releases or geopolitical events. Stay updated with economic calendars.
Interest Rates: Central bank policies can significantly affect currency values. Monitor interest rate decisions and monetary policy statements.
Pair Correlation: Understand how currency pairs correlate with each other to manage your portfolio risk better.
For Bitcoin (BTC) Trading:
High Volatility: Cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, is known for extreme price movements. Prepare for significant price swings.
Regulatory Environment: Keep an eye on global crypto regulations which can influence market sentiment and price.
Market Sentiment: Bitcoin's price can be heavily influenced by news, tweets from influencers, and market sentiment. Tools like sentiment analysis can be beneficial.
Security: Since BTC is digital, security of your wallet and trading platform is paramount. Use hardware wallets for long-term storage.
Liquidity: Ensure you're trading on platforms with good liquidity to avoid slippage, especially during volatile times.
For Stock Trading:
Company Fundamentals: Unlike Forex or BTC, stocks are tied to company performance. Analyze earnings, financial statements, and growth prospects.
Dividends: Some stocks offer dividends, providing an income stream which can be reinvested or taken as cash.
Market Trends: Stocks are influenced by broader market trends, sector performance, and macroeconomic indicators. Diversification across sectors can mitigate risk.
Brokerage and Fees: Stock trading can involve various fees like transaction fees, management fees, etc. Choose your broker wisely based on cost and services.
Long vs. Short Term: Decide if you're in for long-term investment or short-term trading. Each strategy requires different approaches to analysis and risk management.
General Tips for All Markets:
Education: Continuous learning about markets, new tools, and strategies is essential.
Risk Management: Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Use stop-loss orders, diversify, and only invest money you don't need for living expenses.
Psychology: Trading can be emotionally taxing. Manage stress, fear, and greed to make rational decisions.
Technology: Utilize trading platforms, analysis tools, and keep abreast of technological advancements that can impact your trading, like blockchain for crypto.
Regulation: Understand the regulatory environment of each market you're trading in to avoid legal pitfalls.
Community and Mentorship: Engage with trading communities or find a mentor. Learning from seasoned traders can provide shortcuts and insights.
Remember, every market has its nuances, and what works in one might not work in another. Tailor your strategies to each asset class while maintaining a cohesive risk management framework across all your trading activities. Good luck trading!
HOW TO TRADE USING RISK AND CONFIMATION ENTRY IN ICT FOREXHere in this video i show you how you can trade using risk entry and confirmation entry . So the two are different because risk entry has more risk and confirmation entry has less risk.
UNDESTANDING LIQUIDITY IN FOREX |ICT TRADERSHere i explain what liquidity is about and how you can use it trade together with supply and demand . I show you some of liquidity zone you can map out . So try to understand it before applying it on trading
HOW TO TRADE USING SUPPLY AND DEMANDHere in this video i show you how you can trade with supply and demand zone so you can make profits and reduce loss. Try to understand it very well before application.
HOW TO TRADE USING CHOCH IN ICT SMART MONEY CONCEPTHere in this video i show you how you can trade using choch . I explain how change of character work and how it can be applied using indicator also . Understanding Choch can make you a better trader if you use well so try to mark out break of strusture (BOS) then find out were the price unable to respect that in other to get CHOCH.
HOW TO TRADE USING ORDER BLOCK IN ICT Here in this video i show you how you can use order block trade so you can make more profits and reduce loss . Here i explain were order block can be place and also apply indicator .
HOW TO TRADE USING PREMIUM AND DISCOUNT USING ICT CONCEPTIn this video i show you how you can apply premium and discount using ict concept so you can buy at discount and make a better profit . This explain every very well about premium or discount drawing us Fibonacci retracement .
HOW TO TRADE XAUUSD USING ICT KILLZONE INDICATORIn this video i show you how you can trade using ict kill zone indicator . It show you some major zone you can trade like london session , Asia sesssion, New york session etc , so you can choose which one suitable for you
HOW TO TRADE GOLD USING TRENDLINE In video i show you how you can draw trendline to trade Gold you can draw it from higher timeframe to lower time . I show you how i started from daily timeframe down to 15minutes timeframe.
Higher time frame frameworks and set upIn this video, we explore a high-level analysis of monthly and weekly trading frameworks, showcasing how TSA—Time, Space, Algorithms, and Tradings—leverages Confluence to identify asymmetrical opportunities in the market. While this isn’t the full strategy, it introduces key elements that empower traders to achieve precision and clarity.
We dive into the power of Confluence as a core component, integrating insights from markets like the VIX to enhance feasibility and comparison. Starting from the monthly and weekly frameworks, we refine our approach to a 1-hour and 4-hour perspective, identifying high-probability setups. From there, we scale down to 15-minute and 5-minute charts, applying the same Confluence-based principles to manage trades effectively.
This video is designed to bring the trading community together—FED traders, ICT traders, and those who combine fundamentals with technical analysis. Let’s collaborate to uncover powerful Confluences that sharpen our edge in the markets.
This is just the beginning—join us as we build a thriving community of traders!
HOW TO TRADE GOLD USING SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE Here i show you how you can trade just by using support and resistance and you have start analysis trading from daily timeframe then down to 15minus . Use money management for trading gold as it volatile.
HOW TO ANALYZE AND TRADE GOLD Here i show you how you can do analysis and trade Gold so you do not make so much mistake and profit better . Gold is volatile and can wipe account if not careful and same way make a lot of money . So use money management
Key Insights into Bitcoin’s Halving Cycles (updated)1. Halving Cycle Structure
This chart leverages Bitcoin's logarithmic scale to illustrate its price behavior across halving cycles, providing a clearer perspective on exponential growth and diminishing returns.
Key Takeaways from Bitcoin's Halving Cycles
1. Halving Cycle Structure
Cycle Length: Each cycle spans 1432 days (approximately 4 years), divided into:
Bull Market Phase (1064 days): Gradual accumulation followed by accelerated growth.
Bear Market Phase (365 days): Sharp corrections and consolidation before recovery.
Historically, bull markets account for the majority of price growth, with bear markets serving as cooling-off periods.
2. Historical Price Performance
Cycle 1 (2012 Halving):
Entire Cycle move: 11644%
Pre-Halving having: +390%
Post halving +2947%
96.65% of the entire move was after the Halving.
Cycle 2 (2016 Halving):
Entire Cycle move: 2503%
Pre Halving: +213%
Post halving +703%
91.5% of the entire move was after the Halving
Cycle 3 (2020 Halving): Still going...
Hypothesis: 86% of the entire move was after the Halving.
Entire Cycle move: 1671.43%% based on my maths
Pre Halving: +234% so far
Post halving +92% so far
If the hypothesis is true then 905k is the projected price.
3. Upcoming 2024 Halving Predictions
Projected move: 270K USD peak if historical patterns persist and the Hypothesis holds.
Bear Market (2027–2028):
Based on prior cycles, corrections could range from -70% to -80%, leading to a consolidation
Trade safe
Tarder Leo
Key Insights into Bitcoin’s Halving Cycles1. Halving Cycle Structure
This chart leverages Bitcoin's logarithmic scale to illustrate its price behavior across halving cycles, providing a clearer perspective on exponential growth and diminishing returns.
Key Takeaways from Bitcoin's Halving Cycles
1. Halving Cycle Structure
Cycle Length: Each cycle spans 1432 days (approximately 4 years), divided into:
Bull Market Phase (1064 days): Gradual accumulation followed by accelerated growth.
Bear Market Phase (365 days): Sharp corrections and consolidation before recovery.
Historically, bull markets account for the majority of price growth, with bear markets serving as cooling-off periods.
2. Historical Price Performance
Cycle 1 (2012 Halving):
Entire Cycle move: 11644%
Pre-Halving having: +390%
Post halving +2947%
96.65% of the entire move was after the Halving.
Cycle 2 (2016 Halving):
Entire Cycle move: 2503%
Pre Halving: +213%
Post halving +703%
91.5% of the entire move was after the Halving
Cycle 3 (2020 Halving): Still going...
Hypothesis: 86% of the entire move was after the Halving.
Entire Cycle move: 1671.43%% based on my maths
Pre Halving: +234% so far
Post halving +92% so far
If the hypothesis is true then 905k is the projected price.
3. Upcoming 2024 Halving Predictions
Bull Market (2024–2027):
Projected move: 905K USD peak if historical patterns persist and the Hypothesis holds.
Bear Market (2027–2028):
Based on prior cycles, corrections could range from -70% to -80%, leading to a consolidation
Resistance Zones:
$250K, $500K, and $905K projected peaks based on logarithmic trends.
Trade safe
Tarder Leo
Rolling Correlations and Applications for Traders and Investors1. Introduction
Markets are dynamic, and the relationships between assets are constantly shifting. Static correlation values, calculated over fixed periods, may fail to capture these changes, leading traders to miss critical insights. Rolling correlations, on the other hand, provide a continuous view of how correlations evolve over time, making them a powerful tool for dynamic market analysis.
This article explores the concept of rolling correlations, illustrates key trends with examples like ZN (10-Year Treasuries), GC (Gold Futures), and 6J (Japanese Yen Futures), and discusses their practical applications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and timing market entries and exits.
2. Understanding Rolling Correlations
o What Are Rolling Correlations?
Rolling correlations measure the relationship between two assets over a moving window of time. By recalculating correlations at each step, traders can observe how asset relationships strengthen, weaken, or even reverse.
For example, the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals periods of alignment (strong correlation) during economic uncertainty and divergence when driven by differing macro forces.
o Why Rolling Correlations Matter:
Capture dynamic changes in market relationships.
Detect regime shifts, such as transitions from risk-on to risk-off sentiment.
Provide context for recent price movements and their alignment with historical trends.
o Impact of Window Length: The length of the rolling window (e.g., 63 days for daily, 26 weeks for weekly) impacts the sensitivity of correlations:
Shorter Windows: Capture rapid changes but may introduce noise.
Longer Windows: Smooth out fluctuations, focusing on sustained trends.
3. Case Study: ZN (Treasuries) vs GC (Gold Futures)
Examining the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals valuable insights into their behavior as safe-haven assets:
o Daily Rolling Correlation:
High variability reflects the influence of short-term market drivers like inflation data or central bank announcements.
Peaks in correlation align with periods of heightened risk aversion, such as in early 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
o Weekly Rolling Correlation:
Provides a clearer view of their shared response to macroeconomic conditions.
For example, the correlation strengthens during sustained inflationary periods when both assets are sought as hedges.
o Monthly Rolling Correlation:
Reflects structural trends, such as prolonged periods of monetary easing or tightening.
Divergences, such as during mid-2023, may indicate unique demand drivers for each asset.
These observations highlight how rolling correlations help traders understand the evolving relationship between key assets and their implications for broader market trends.
4. Applications of Rolling Correlations
Rolling correlations are more than just an analytical tool; they offer practical applications for traders and investors:
1. Portfolio Diversification:
By monitoring rolling correlations, traders can identify periods when traditionally uncorrelated assets start aligning, reducing diversification benefits.
2. Risk Management:
Rolling correlations help traders detect concentration risks. For example, if ZN and 6J correlations remain persistently high, it could indicate overexposure to safe-haven assets.
Conversely, weakening correlations may signal increasing portfolio diversification.
3. Timing Market Entry/Exit:
Strengthening correlations can confirm macroeconomic trends, helping traders align their strategies with market sentiment.
5. Practical Insights for Traders
Incorporating rolling correlation analysis into trading workflows can enhance decision-making:
Shorter rolling windows (e.g., daily) are suitable for short-term traders, while longer windows (e.g., monthly) cater to long-term investors.
Adjust portfolio weights dynamically based on correlation trends.
Hedge risks by identifying assets with diverging rolling correlations (e.g., if ZN-GC correlations weaken, consider adding other uncorrelated assets).
6. Practical Example: Applying Rolling Correlations to Trading Decisions
To illustrate the real-world application of rolling correlations, let’s analyze a hypothetical scenario involving ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold), and 6J (Yen Futures):
1. Portfolio Diversification:
A trader holding ZN notices a decline in its rolling correlation with GC, indicating that the two assets are diverging in response to unique drivers. Adding GC to the portfolio during this period enhances diversification by reducing risk concentration.
2. Risk Management:
During periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., late 2022), rolling correlations between ZN and 6J rise sharply, indicating a shared safe-haven demand. Recognizing this, the trader reduces exposure to both assets to mitigate over-reliance on risk-off sentiment.
3. Market Entry/Exit Timing:
Periods where the rolling correlation between ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) transitions from negative to positive signal that the two assets are potentially regaining their historical correlation after a phase of divergence. During these moments, traders can utilize a simple moving average (SMA) crossover on each asset to confirm synchronized directional movement. For instance, as shown in the main chart, the crossover highlights key points where both ZN and GC aligned directionally, allowing traders to confidently initiate positions based on this corroborative setup. This approach leverages both correlation dynamics and technical validation to align trades with prevailing market trends.
These examples highlight how rolling correlations provide actionable insights that improve portfolio strategy, risk management, and trade timing.
7. Conclusion
Rolling correlations offer a dynamic lens through which traders and investors can observe evolving market relationships. Unlike static correlations, rolling correlations adapt to shifting macroeconomic forces, revealing trends that might otherwise go unnoticed.
By incorporating rolling correlations into their analysis, market participants can:
Identify diversification opportunities and mitigate concentration risks.
Detect early signs of market regime shifts.
Align their portfolios with dominant trends to enhance performance.
In a world of constant market changes, rolling correlations can be a powerful tool for navigating complexity and making smarter trading decisions.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
6 Things to Do before you start Investing and Trading1. Build an Emergency Fund
▪️Why it's important: Having an emergency fund ensures you have a financial cushion for unexpected expenses (e.g., medical bills, car repairs, job loss). Without this safety net, you may be forced to sell investments or go into debt if something unforeseen happens.
▪️How to do it: Aim for 3-6 months' worth of living expenses in a liquid, easily accessible account like a savings account. Focus on saving first before putting money into investments.
2. Pay Down High-Interest Debt
▪️Why it's important: High-interest debt, especially from credit cards, can severely hinder your financial progress. The interest on these debts is often higher than the returns you could earn from investments in the short term.
▪️How to do it: Prioritize paying off high-interest debts first (e.g., credit cards), then move on to other debts like student loans or car loans. Consider strategies like the debt snowball or debt avalanche method.
3. Define Your Financial Goals and Priorities
▪️Why it's important: Knowing what you're investing for (e.g., retirement, a down payment on a house, education, or travel) will help you choose the right investment vehicles and timeframes. It also provides motivation and direction.
▪️How to do it: Set SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound) financial goals. Break them down into short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals. This helps you align your investments with your needs.
4. Know Your Cash Flow
▪️Why it's important: Understanding your income and expenses is essential for managing your finances and determining how much money you can consistently allocate to investing. If you don't have a clear picture of your cash flow, you might overextend yourself or miss opportunities.
▪️How to do it: Create a monthly budget to track your income, fixed expenses, and discretionary spending. Consider using a budgeting tool or app to make this process easier. Be honest about where you can cut back to free up funds for investing.
5. Track Your Net Worth
▪️Why it's important: Tracking your net worth gives you a clear picture of your overall financial health. It's a snapshot of what you own (assets) minus what you owe (liabilities). This helps you measure your progress over time and adjust as needed.
▪️How to do it: List all your assets (e.g., savings, investments, real estate) and liabilities (e.g., mortgages, student loans, credit card debt). Update this regularly to see how your financial situation is evolving. You can use free online tools or apps to make this process easier.
6. Understand the Basics of Investing and Trading
▪️Why it's important: If you're going to invest or trade, you need to understand the fundamental principles behind both activities. This includes knowledge of risk, returns, diversification, asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate), and how markets operate.
▪️How to do it: Read books, take online courses, or follow credible financial blogs and YouTube channels. It’s important to grasp concepts like risk tolerance, time horizon, and the different types of investments (stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, etc.). Understanding these principles will help you avoid common mistakes and make informed decisions.
