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POST FOMC Analysis For The S&P 500 ES1!For traders it's not about what the Fed does or is going to do, it's about how the market reacts to what the Fed does. Today the FOMC raised rates by .25 basis points and the markets took off. As of right now the bulls are in control, but for how much longer? In today's video I go over how I will determine a market top and ways to tell if this rally still has legs. I use auto anchored VWAP, Bollinger Bands, and the RSI. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is for educational purposes only. Derivatives trading is not suitable for all investors.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by anthonycrudele
18
Trends again nearly maxed... enjoying the rollercoaster yet?So I had said I believed we would have some upward movement yesterday, although it did go a about 40 points higher than I expected. However, with that level of upward movement, we are nearly maxed to the uptrends again, with just the 4hr waiting to hit, unless we are close to getting that Weekly back out of the downtrend pattern it recently went into. It does appear that Santa Claus came a month late into the market, as every dip has been followed with a "buy the dip" mentality and pushed us higher for the entire month. The Weekly bars are either full upward movements or spinning tops to show this sentiment. The trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4043 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4055 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4071 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4020 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low If we are going to move further, I'd like to ultimately see that 12hr trend be corrected into a higher high and not a lower high movement, which could happen if we get that movement down to 3913 I am currently expecting. Economic Data; It is a Fed Day. There is also jobs data and PMI data today. All should cause movement in the market, though most eyes will be on Jerome Powell for forward guidance more than the rate hike. The rate hike is all but guaranteed to be 25bps. Earnings; Meta, T-Mobile, and Thermo Fischer are today, along with a slew of other companies. 20% of the S&P reports this week. Bigger names are coming tomorrow also. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bearish Remember to trade safely and abide by your own risk management plan. Safe Trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
FOMC prep, the chop continues - SPXNo sell off today is another warning that we may have more chop tomorrow and in the coming week. Looking at the action today makes me think we're in a B of 4 and the C will be with the FOMC announcement. However because it's probably a 4th wave, chances are we find support at either 3980ish or 3950 - the important MA's are there on the daily charts. The RSI is also hinting at a buyable dip after tomorrow. The bear fatigue should be complete with one more high into 4130+ for wave 5 of C next week. One one hand I'd like this rally to be over, but on the other hand, the higher they go, the more explosive the move down will be for the C wave I see coming. Good luck!
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by the_sunship
5
SPX - pre market commentary plus gold, usoil, dxy, bonds, applAll in the video, basically I'm waiting for ES to break 3950 area convincingly and then retest it for a short. My guess right now is - not much will happen before FOMC and AAPL earnings, but who knows for sure. USOIl may make one more high to 84, it would be a good shorting opportunity. Gold looks strong and the dollar is still weak. Bonds also close to resistance but could get up to 133-4 first. AAPL has resistance above so a gap up and then fail after earning would be interesting to a bear like me :) Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by the_sunship
4
Trends call for a small bounce but more downside expectedSo I'm still sitting in the same trade, just waiting to see if things move downward past the 4000 level. I actually was watching the market when it was below 4010 and nearly decided to take profit at the moment and then evaluate again for another entry down. Unfortunate at this point I didn't but I do expect some more downside still. The trends however are being violated pretty significantly so I could definitely see an upward move here to gather more steam to head lower. Probably wait and see what the open brings us. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4032 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4052 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4039 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4033 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4020 Downtrend (1/31/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Looking to see if we have continued momentum down from yesterday. Economic Data; For today we do have CB Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST. Earnings; Lots of earnings today. I'll be checking into a few of the BTOs here or there as things progress. My sentiment going into today is; Shorter Term - Neutral/slightly Bullish Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Bearish Trade safely and practice your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
The Bull and Bear scenarios; Trends into 1/30/2023So we got that Daily Uptrend signal, and have so far hit lower off of it. I foresee a move down to around 3913 as a retest to the low and then if we can rally above that, it could be a sustainable new bull market. My instincts tell me however that we won't sustain this push overall, fed by my concern over the weekly downtrend market signal we recently got. I hope we remain open minded though, and look to just trade what is happening rather than what could happen, and currently we do have a neutral market on the Daily and many of our other trends are in a strong uptrend direction. The trends going into this week are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4068 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4052 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Overall Monday is a bit slow. Economic Data is short as are Earnings. However... looking ahead; Wednesday Economic Data; FOMC Rate Hike and Powell Speech Thursday Earnings; Major Tech Earnings of Amazon, Apple, and Google. Both days should be quite a ride, so be prepared, trade safely, and remember your risk management plan. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
Trends closed in on that upside; Downside now in sightSo we got the upward movement I'd discussed yesterday. We did get a 30m downtrend yesterday but we bounced up and did in the end close higher as I had believed we would. I went short yesterday and am still sitting in that position now. I was concerned that good PCE data might cause us to spike upwards, but ultimately I don't see the PCE data as a good data point, and the lackluster of volume and movement off the data seems to reflect that at this point. Overall, I think this is where we begin to find a major swing down, potentially past the last Daily downtrend mark of 3810, though I don't foresee that coming as a straight shot, and I think the 12hr could set in at a higher low and cause some complications to that. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4030 Downtrend (1/26/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4018 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; PCE and Personal Income/Spending. I go over both as those data points have come out in the video. Earnings; Not a lot of Earnings today, which is typical for a Friday. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish to Neutral Long Term - Bearish Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
Trends still allowing for upside before another down swingSo, again I believe that the market will have a harsh swing down coming, but yet again, I caution to wait for a good entry. While I didn't get to partake in yesterday's rally because I was stopped out before we went much lower than I expected, we did still get the upward movement that the trends called for. I could see some more upward movement up to around 4080 before we run out of steam and potentially head back down again. We are also very close to seeing a Daily Uptrend signal here which again would be a higher high Daily Uptrend signal (the first in over a year). Overall the trends for today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4016 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4018 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low So as we can see the issue is we are maxing out ourselves in all uptrends again, however the uptrend of the 6hr is the one that would allow us to move upward without any issue. Economic Data; We have GDP and Jobs data today. I'll be watching both closely. Earnings; Again, it is Earnings season. Lots of Earnings today with special attention to VISA, as they may provide some insight into the overall health of the economy. My sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bullish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Bearish I will list this as a LONG position, as I think we end higher on the day overall, but be warned... I'm not committed to the position myself. Trade safely and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
4
Trends fulfilled some lower movement; Mixed signals aheadSo I exited my trade from yesterday for a profit just above $2000. That puts me at around $2800 for the week. I'm a bit unsure about our next movement. My instinct says we could head lower and have a total meltdown of a day, however, thus far each time we started to meltdown we immediately pulled back up and it has become apparent this 4000 zone is a battleground area. So that being said, I might just sit and watch. I've made my weekly quota, and many of the short and mid range timeframes I use are calling for more potential upside or at least upward bounces. The 12hr is the main timeframe demanding we head lower, but we are close to seeing a Daily uptrend signal as well, so... I'm not fully convinced with the remaining timeframes (besides the 30m now) calling for upward movement that the 12hr can move the market alone. Those trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4004 Downtrend (1/25/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4013 Downtrend (1/24/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 3972 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low For Economic Data; Not much today. Some oil data but nothing I think will impact the S&P. Tomorrow will be a key date to watch with GDP and Jobs data. Earnings; Lots of Earnings. I scrolled through a few in the video, but if you want to see them all, I recommend just Googling S&P Earnings Calendar and going to FinScreener when it shows up or another website that outlines what companies are reporting since we are in Earnings season and there are so many. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish I'll mark this as a "Long" position only because I think from our current level we could find our way back up to around 4020ish or so. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Still waiting for a downward swingSo after jumping out briefly yesterday I went back in short at 4029 this morning. We did get a 30m downtrend mark earlier this morning at 4027. We did not have a major bounce off of it, at least not yet. Currently I'll be looking for at least a 1hr downtrend mark, as the 1hr is in violation (it was in a lower high uptrend mark) so it would allow us to fix it. Overall though, if we do get that mark I may be holding out for more downside as we are also in violation of the 12hr lower high right now. The trends overall going into today are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4027 Downtrend (1/23/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3947 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 3972 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Overall a lot of the trends are looking upward, and we are probably close in an upward movement to get a Daily Uptrend. We have also broken that descending funnel from the high points of 2022, slightly higher than I would expect us to break it, and without the volume it takes to appear committed to the movement, so I expect that to take us downward also. On the Economic Data; Nothing too major. Some PMI data and sales stuff today. Earnings; LOTS of earnings. I'll be looking into JNJ and other heavy weights, and especially into Verizon as it is the first cellular company reporting in this Earnings season also and might set off a bit of a chain reaction into other companies in the same sector. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish with a hint of neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
4
Trends show potential to downside, advise to wait for an entrySo while I took Friday off, it looks like the market ended up right around where I thought we would (I forget the exact number I called, maybe 3997? somewhere in the 90s anyways). That being said I wouldn't just jump into a short quite yet, or at least I'm not going to. I've said I'm fairly neutral with this markets long term direction, and want to see how we react to a Daily Uptrend signal. The trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3952 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 3947 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 3972 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 3946 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low You can see we've had a few higher highs come in with this last bounce, and only the 1hr calling for us to head lower. Another reason why I'm not convinced I want to go short just yet. Economic Data; I go over stuff later in the week in the video, but for today, nothing much of anything. Earnings; Earnings today aren't all that major either. Overall I expect a casual trading day. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bullish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Bearish I'm marking this as a Short opinion, even though I could see some minor upside, as that is my stronger direction I see coming. As always, remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
How to Build Wealth (Part I)This video is the first of a series of videos that I hope to post on how to build wealth. Of note, in this video, I imply that Tesla's stock grows at an equal rate to the rate at which the money supply expands. Although this has generally been true over the past couple of years, over the longer term, Tesla's stock (TSLA) price has grown faster than the rate at which the money supply grows. If you prefer to read my thoughts on how to build wealth, rather than listen to a video, you can check out my post below: Note: Nothing in this video should be construed as financial advice. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this video. Please consult a financial adviser before making any financial decisions. All of the images and video content contained in this video including the cover image were created by me. I included captions for those who may have difficulty hearing.
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
35
Trends beginning to show a mixed bagSo we got the downward movement I've been calling and waiting for finally. I did jump out earlier than I anticipated. I'd said I thought we'd get close to 3900 on the next descent, but my trading strategy gave me no logical reason to stay in past 3946 so I got out at 3943 as I don't trade off my "gut", I trade with trends. The 6hr downtrend signal came much higher than I expected, and now the only downtrend signal we have left is a 12hr downtrend which I wouldn't be surprised to see here shortly. So, all in all, while I'm bummed I did miss out on the extra 30 points down ($1500), I am not confident we are staying down here for very long. Additionally, my 12hr chart actually has us in a "Strong Uptrend" condition, even with this pull back, which would be calling for us then to return to 3993. I don't feel quote confident enough to go long on that, but it certainly provides me some pause. If we hit a 12hr downtrend, then I expect us to at least have a small bounce and get a 30m uptrend, because we have no trends left to take us lower. If you are only interested in the trend numbers, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4004 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3980 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 3965 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 3965 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 3945 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3946 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; We have jobs numbers today in about 30 minutes. I expect that to cause some ripples in the market. Earnings; Procter & Gamble (BTO) and Netflix (AMC) are today. Both are heavy weights and could send ripples through their respective industries. So I'd do some digging into the forward guidance of those companies as we continue to kick off earnings season. Overall my sentiment at 08:00 EST is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Hint Bullish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bearish Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan comes first!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
3
Trends and Triangles; The outlook of 2023So this is a longer video, as I discuss more than just the current market, but where I foresee price action heading into at least the first half of the year, and why. I apologize for the painful observance of me trying to switch around on time charts, I'm still getting used to TradingView at times and so it is certainly my issue of being unfamiliar and learning while recording. My current trade is a short at 4013, and I had believed that the CPI data would spike us up, I didn't really see the spike on that data. Another trader mentioned that perhaps the weekly surge was a prespike on the CPI data we already had, and I can certainly agree with this sentiment. Once I was sure we were failing to get new highs, I went short. My reasoning for going short, as stated in the video, is that our last 4hr (and 3hr and 6hr) uptrends are all lower highs and are downtrending. We've violated these lower highs for some time now, and I believe price is going to correct itself to pick up at least the 4hr downtrend now. That 4hr downtrend will likely, without some sort of spike reversal, hit around 3900. When it does hit, it will be a lower low based on the previous downtrend at 3980ish. I'll then be looking to see if the 6hr trend will also correct itself at that point. The trends for today are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3970 Downtrend (1/12/2023) Higher Lows 1Hr - 3970 Downtrend (1/12/2023) Higher Lows 2Hr - 3948 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3913 Uptrend (1/6/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low So, now for the longer analysis. As I'm sure we've all done, we see the downtrend of the top of price action of 2022. We attempted to break that downtrend at around 4000 here and again failed (so far, and it appears we are headed south if this price action continues into the open). I believe this rally was mostly based on people who decided that they think that by year end we will be higher, and so they bought back into the market, and don't plan to trade again until the end of the year when they hope there is a moderate return on investment like normal with the S&P (and there most likely will be). Most strong trend lines are broken within the 20-25% range of their whole. So for the downtrend in price of 2022, we started at 4800 and ended at 3600, all momentary peaks and plummets aside (I switch the line graphs to remove such clutter). The difference of the peak and base there is 1200, 25% of 1200 is 300, so therefore it is likely we can't break this downtrend in price action until we hit against it at 3900 or below. All that to be said, better luck next time Bulls. On a more Economic Data analysis level, even with cooling inflation, we failed to make new highs. I believe fundamentally this is because at some point, the conversation is coming away from, "Zoinks, inflation and FOMC Rate Levels are driving the market!!!" to "Flustering forecasts, are we going to have a recession?!" Basically, markets have not prepared, priced in, and completely braced, for the pain that the rate hikes and slowing economy is going to have on valuations of stock prices. Now, I am not 100% in the camp that we will make new lows. I saw a trendline that developed over a decade that went from resistance to support and hit around 3530-3550 early last year, and called for us to bounce off that price action. Well, we saw that rally occur, and it occurred off bad inflation data when there was no reason for the market to rally otherwise. Therefore, I won't see us finding new lows until we break, and hold (as in for about 3 days or more), below that line. So in the mean time, I expect price action to range from around 3600-4000 (and the higher range is dropping as this downtrend price action continues to descend). Hope you found the longer video and longer transcript here helpful. My current sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
7
SPX weekly preview with DXY Gold and USOIL on the sideok another weekly preview of these particular instruments. We're in an interesting point on all of them as you can see in the video. The SPX bias is up but watch for possible reversal this week as the Weekly RSI is at a resistance point. DXY retesting it's channel boundary again, Gold had a breakout but needs to hold over 1870 to continue, USOIL looks like consolidation before another move down but up to 81 -2 can come first.
TVC:USOIL
by the_sunship
7