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Market Outlook Feb 14th--->Feb 18th $SPYBreakdown of Each chart Top left - S&P 500 / General market Bottom left - QQQ / Nasdaq / Tech sector Top right- XLF / Financial sector Bottom right- Dollar index Recap Investors went on another wild ride this week, but ultimately US stock indices finished modestly below where they started. Trading remained choppy as traders digested another slew of earnings reports around the release of key US inflation data. Even before the CPI print inflation worries percolated, copper, iron ore, timber and coffee prices surged garnering attention. Quarterly earnings conference calls were rife with commentary about the expectation that companies will continue to raise prices through the remainder 2022 to offset rising supply chain costs. Also, a protest by Canadian truckers over vaccine mandates shut down several key bridges on the US/Canada border resulting in significant down time at multiple US automobile OEM facilities. WTI crude hit a fresh 8-year high on Friday spurred by reports that the US government now believes Russian President Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine. Thursday’s January CPI release spooked markets yet again, after coming in substantially hotter than already-goosed market expectations, reaching the highest annual pace since 1982. The upside surprise in the core index was spread across a wide range of categories, including some that have been heavily influenced by bottlenecks and others where price pressures could be viewed as more likely to stick. Stock markets came under pressure and Treasury yields immediately shot up on the news, led by the 2-year yield which surged 25 basis points, the largest daily gain since 2009. The 10-year yield retook 2% for the first time since 2019, but investors were also quick to fret over the narrowing of spreads or the curve flattening and what it might signal about future growth prospects. Futures markets quickly saw the odds of a 50 basis point March rate hike rise above 50%. By Friday, investment houses were aggressively ratcheting up their Federal Reserve tightening expectations after FOMC voter Bullard called for a 50bps hike in March, while also indicating significant quantitative tightening (balance sheet reduction) and perhaps intra-meeting hikes may also be necessary to get inflation under control. For the week, the S&P lost 1.8%, the DJIA was off 1%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.2% In corporate news this week, Disney shares rose after reporting strong quarterly results, boosted by robust theme park attendance and higher than anticipated streaming service subscriber growth. Pfizer dropped after issuing a weaker 2022 outlook than expected, and late in the week said it would delay its application to the FDA to expand its Covid vaccine to kids under 5 until April. On the supply chain front, Intel’s CEO said the company expects chip wafer supply to remain tight through 2023, while FMC Corp noted they have seen initial signs of packaging costs easing. Republic Services confirmed plans to buy US Ecology for $2.2B in cash, and Republic added it plans to pursue additional tuck-in acquisitions in the environmental solutions sector.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
Market Outlook Jan 31--->Feb 4th $SPYBreakdown of Each chart Top left - S&P 500 / General market Bottom left - QQQ / Nasdaq / Tech sector Top right- XLF / Financial sector Bottom right- Dollar index The Beijing Winter Olympics are almost here, shadowed by boycotts, fear of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine and of course the coronavirus. There’s been no shortage of issues for other nations to protest about, from the case of the missing tennis star to Beijing’s comprehensive effort to snuff out free speech and a free press in Hong Kong. But the biggest source of ire from the West and elsewhere has been China’s detention and treatment of more than a million Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The presence of thousands of foreign athletes from countries that value free speech may be risky for President Xi Jinping, who seeks to cement (maybe lifetime) control over China with a third term. Avoiding controversy could be key. As for athletes, keep an eye on Eileen Gu, China’s American-born star. Cryptocurrencies won’t go up just because they’re going mainstream, at least according to Goldman Sachs. There’s growing concern about criminal activity in the digital asset market, too, while regulators wonder whether 18% yields on crypto savings accounts might be too tempting. Russian President Vladimir Putin may be a fan of crypto mining, but memories of 2018 are sparking fears among the Bitcoin faithful. Biden has been saying that his economic plan is working, and America’s GDP, record job growth and rising wages arguably support his case. But consumer confidence has yet to reflect that, with supply chain issues and (relatedly) the “I” word being all the rage. Many economists have predicted inflation will fall to 3% as the year progresses, and the Fed’s rate-hike plans are part of that. But others see inflation being stickier. An omicron subvariant appears to be even more contagious than the original fast-spreading strain, U.K. health authorities said, though vaccine booster shots remain an effective shield. The new version is already in dozens of countries, including across America. Data from contact-tracing shows the subvariant, BA.2, spreads more frequently in households, where the rate of transmission is 13.4%, compared to 10.3% for the original omicron. In the U.S., some 60 million households have availed themselves of free Covid-19 tests being distributed by a Biden administration program. A drug developed by Merck showed activity versus omicron in six lab studies, raising confidence it may be useful in battling the variant. While the initial omicron wave has peaked in some places, worldwide it continues to infect millions daily. There were 3.5 million new confirmed infections and 10,200 Covid-related deaths on Thursday alone. Over the past two years, there have been 364 million confirmed cases and 5.6 million deaths , though the actual numbers are likely much higher. Airlines are avoiding much of Ukrainian airspace as Russia continues to mass troops and equipment on that nation’s borders, stirring global fears of another unprovoked attack on its neighbor. Many carriers have largely avoided overflights since 2014 following the deaths of 298 people from 10 countries—including the Netherlands, Indonesia and Australia—when a Russian-made missile downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in eastern Ukraine. An international probe concluded Moscow-backed separatists who have been fighting Ukrainian forces since Russia annexed Crimea were behind the mass killing. Russia has denied any role, though Australia and the Netherlands accused the Kremlin of complicity. Meanwhile, the U.S. is calling for a United Nations Security Council meeting in which Russia would be asked to explain its moves toward Ukraine, a session that may evoke memories of a 1962 UN meeting following the discovery of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba . Ukraine’s leaders, for their part, appear less worried that an attack is coming.
TVC:DXYLong
by WallSt007
ES Correction & Potential Bounce LevelsWe have been in a recent downtrend on $ES $SPX and a lot of traders are probably wondering where the bottom will be. A break back up toward 4553 and a hold above 4565 would signal that we have bottomed in the short term. That would not necessarily mean the bounce wouldn't fail to retest the lows but here are some potential bounce levels. Fibonacci levels near 4361, 4278 and lower support zone below October lows near 4170-4180. This would be considered an extreme target and unlikely to reach in the short term. However with recent political headlines and the market having a risk off nature, no one really knows where it will bottom. Thanks for following and watching. Feel free to comment and share. Stay tactical and stay safe.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Freshly_Snipes
1
ES correction and key levels to watchHere is a breakdown of levels I am watching after the FOMC minutes pushed major indices lower. ES/SPX gave up the trend, can turn into sell the rally event if bulls do not recover the 4745 level fast and hold (not looking like it so far,) I am leaning toward a lot of volatility. Rest of the week will be difficult and big moves up down. Downside targets now adjust to previous lows. 4640/4615/4590/below that ES can sell to 200 day moving average at around 4400. Thanks for watching.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Freshly_Snipes