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ES mini - ABC with an unknown biasGapped down on futures at open, so we're currently under the daily 18ma. Getting over it tomorrow would indicate to me the B wave will continue to about 3850 into the election and then we should have a powerful C leg down. Keep in mind that VIX has been selling off consistently for almost 2 weeks straight so a bounce there is expected soon. If the market is around 3600 when CPI comes out I'm betting it's a buy. Two paths are shown below, good luck.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
1
Trends in Conflict; Potential for a calming day in the marketsWith few Earnings and very little economic data, I don't see today flying one way or another. The only triggering item in the next 24 hours is the midterm elections. Historically, markets go higher at the close of an election, regardless of outcome. If you don't want to watch the video, the trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3789 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3772 Uptrend (11/04/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3799 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low 12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As you can see, the 30m if wanting to show an upward funnel, but it is working against the 1hr that hit on Friday, and the 2hr that just hit this morning as well. The 2hr would be a fresh lower funnel. We are currently in the Apex of the 30m uptrend vs the 2hr downtrend. I think we will see a calm day of trading, potentially getting back to around 0% on the day overall. Price action could likely be in between that gap that we opened with and our current price high just above 3800. There aren't many Earnings for today and as I said, very little economic data. This whole week is basically like this, with the main movement not coming until Thursday when CPI comes out. That data will likely be the catalyst of us going lower this year, or of sustaining around 3900 until the end of the year. So Brace Yourself, Inflation Data is Coming. My sentiment today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral / Hint of Bullish Medium Term - Neutral / Bullish (I think we hit around 3850 before that CPI data comes in) As always, trade safely and remember your risk management plan Long Term - Bearish / Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends into 11/4/2022... and is Employment vs WagesSo the question of the day is, are wages more important than employment information. I believe the answer to this will be yes. Ultimately if wages come down, and bring inflation down with it, than the Fed will likely back off of rate hikes and let things settle down overall. We will find out if they are in conflict at 8:30am EST, or if they are running together in one direction or the other. I suspect wage information may come in lower than the last reading, based on the wage information we got last Friday. It was that same information that sent the market skyrocketing even with PCE coming in sticky and high. As for trends, if you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3746 Uptrend (11/04/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low 12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low We had the 30m uptrend, which signaled fairly low because of how flat we came out of that sell off from Wednesday. While we did initially bounce lower off it, we came back up and pushed past the where the 30m lower high was. In doing so, we've also pushed up past the 6 hour higher low downtrend line, and additionally we have moved back into the main funnel of the lows of the rally we've had. That rally line does NOT include the major dip into 3500, but includes all the other lows we've bounced off of since. I'd like to see us continue to gather some trends, such as a lower high 1hr, lower high 2hr, and potentially even a lower high 3hr. If the 4hr hits though, it'll be a higher high, because of how far back the 4hr was left previously. Once that hits, I'll be cautious on seeing if the 4hr continues to carry us upward, or if we lose steam. As I said in the video, I snagged a long position at 3716 just after the market opened back up at 18:00 EST yesterday. My reasoning was in that I felt we were still setup for a short term bullish run, and that the market would pump up waiting for Unemployment and Wage data today. While I did have to sit up past midnight to watch this trade to make sure it couldn't fall backwards on me, it has paid off thus far, and will allow me to hold this trade going into the main data today. Economic Data; Speaking of that data, Unemployment comes out at 8:30am EST. If this comes in at expected levels or even higher, expect a market rally. However, lots of wage data also comes in. I think this may take center stage of Unemployment, and I expect it to show wages are slowing based on the wage data we got last Friday. If wage data comes in at expectations or even lower, expect a market rally. If they come in differently, I expect Wage data to trump the Unemployment data based on the market reaction of last Friday. Earnings; Mostly just Berkshire Hathaway I mentioned yesterday. It doesn't have when it was releasing their earnings, so I'll go hunt it down after posting this and update. I don't do updates on Earnings on other days when there are like 40 companies to watch by the way. Just too much to go filter through. My overall sentiment is the same as yesterday; Shorter Term (next couple hours) - Bullish Short Term (end of today) - Bullish Medium Term (over the next week) - Bullish /Neutral Long Term (over the next month) - Neutral/ Bearish As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Can we recover from the irresponsible messaging from the FOMC?The answer to today's question is... I believe we can. Once this excessive emotional sell off cools for a minute, I think cooler heads can prevail. I find it a bit ironic that of all Powell's messages, he had more dovish talk in this one and yet everyone only saw hawkish, when in the past he has been in my opinion very hawkish and people took the microscopic dovish words that they could. However, I go on a tirade about how irresponsible his messaging was yesterday with absolute mixed signals in his speech vs written guidance. Anyways, as I said in my video, I took a loss on my trade last night of about $500. I went in again during this video at 3738, as I think we have a bit of a bounce back now today. If you aren't interested in watching the video the trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3824 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low 12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As you can see, many of our trends past the 30m are higher lows, and calling for the market to come back up briefly to see where we head next. The 6hr was fascinating in that it signaled a downtrend almost exactly at where it had signaled an uptrend, allowing the possibility that the resistance of the trend line can now become the support, something that you see a lot in trends. In terms of economic data today; It will all be about the jobs reports coming out here in 30 minutes. Based on some other recent data, I believe we may see an increase in jobless claims, but time will tell. As far as Earnings; We have 150 companies left to report earnings, with a slew of medium sized companies coming in today. It is honestly too many for me to report on, but most companies have actually been beating expectations overall (a lowered expectation, but none the less). I know Starbucks is likely to post record profits and sales AMC. Overall, with the election coming to a close, people trading over emotionally, and earnings season still here, I see us rallying back up to meet some of these trends we left behind. I'd expect a 30m uptrend without a doubt, and I think we will most likely see a 1hr and 2hr uptrend mark before we head lower at least. I've noticed that the issue in my trading is that my shorter term sentiment tends to be accurate, but my short term sentiment (where I think we will get at the end of the day) is coming in mid day and then my medium term sentiment (where I think we get by the end of the week) is coming in by the close. Those sentiments today are; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bearish As always, remember your risk management plan and trade safely.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Does any technical analysis matter on Fed Day?To answer to today's question, is probably not. In spite of that, I think the longer looking picture is that we head down. However, we have several trends that are showing a higher low (30m, 1h, 2h, 3h) so before we head down I'd like to see one of them turn into a downtrend shape. If you remember, we got up here on the back up the 30m trend giving us a nice funnel to follow. As bizarre as it was for the 30m to run off with the market by itself, it still gave some shape for the up. If you want the trends and don't want to watch the video, they are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3900 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3893 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As you can see, we have several Higher Low's that came in yesterday with the drop. I'd expect us to rebound up, at least to catch a 30m uptrend, before we can head lower. But, if that doesn't happen before 14:00 EST, just realize I think any position going into the FOMC decision is a gamble. I think we get 75 basis points. I think the Fed talks about finishing with the 50 it said it would do in December, and I think it talks about potentially letting things simmer to see how the rates are having an affect. That SHOULD send us higher, but when economic data actually has a real impact on the markets, it really tends to be anyone's guess on how the market will react. Remember the surge after a rate hike on Powell's speech 6 months ago, just to have a massive drop off the very next day? Speaking of Economic Data; We also have NonFarm Employment Change and Challenger Job Cuts. I'm gonna have to go seek out the job cuts, although it didn't seem to be too impactful. NonFarm data is in about 30 minutes. Earnings; CVS is this morning, Qualcomm is AMC, otherwise it is just a lot of middle weight companies reporting today. My overall sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral As always, remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Was 3500 the bottom? Can this rally continue?Short answer to if this rally can continue? Is No, I don't think so. I think this rally continues until we get into Earnings for areas that are sensitive to consumer spending (Walmart, Target, etc). However, I'm not sure I want to bank on the rally coming back just yet. Overall my position is bearish, but it will be timing that will be important. I think the market easily will lose about 200 points ($10,000) off this rally, I just want to make sure I'm not jumping in early. For today, I'm looking for something into the 3930s to short if the signs call for it, attempting to aim small and miss small if I need to take a loss. If you just want the Trends, they are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3909 Uptrend (11/01/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3846 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3878 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3893 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Past that, on the Earnings front we have some decent earnings. Nothing I see that will post a horrible result, other than maybe AMD, but they are After Market Close. On the Economic Data front, we do have some manufacturing data, I don't know that will rock the market unless it comes well outside of expectations. My overall sentiment is; Shorter Term; Neutral Short Term; Bearish Medium Term; Bearish Long Term; Bearish/Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
The 30m Trend finally signals down; Is it the end of the Rally?So after running away with the market for a few days, the 30m uptrend we were running along has finally come to an end. To say yesterday surprised me would be an understatement. I thought for sure with the heaviness of Google and Microsoft in the market that it could take things lower, but in the end, we ended up flying upward yet again. That is Earning season for you, especially in 2022. It has almost become too predictable at this point. In every other movement like we had over the longer trends, I capitalized big on going into the trends to correct themselves, it just didn't work one time. Overnight I've gone short at 3860. The decision was based on the weakening of the 30m trend, and the fact it was just about where I had taken my loss that I felt comfortable things would "go back to normal" for the moment. Anyways, only the 30m trend has changed, but if you want the trends and don't want to watch the video, here you go; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3792 Uptrend (10/27/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3741 Uptrend (10/20/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3734 Uptrend (10/21/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3779 Downtrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low So, I was thinking of my overall sentiment and where the market is. Interestingly enough, I came to accept that my medium bias came true, it just didn't come the way I expected it. This IS the rally I have been forecasting, I just didn't get on the correct side of it because I was too focused on where we were heading at that moment. If you had asked me where I thought we were going to go when I started to call a possible short term rally, I would have said 3900 (and may have in a previous video, I just can't remember when). So at this point I think any upward movement is just going to be winding up the rubber band to snap back down. I still think we have to head into the 3800-3700 zone again, even if we've had our bottom in this market, because we will want to pick up a downtrend on the 4hr. I think 3700 is going to be a HUGE key moment, and that any dip below that that picks back up longer trends like the 6hr and 12hr is just going to be looking for a continuation downward. Again, I am leaving tonight to go backpacking for the weekend, but I would REALLY watch that PCE reaction tomorrow, to see if that puts dying breath into this rally, at least for the moment. I could see us whipsawing over November, to come back up and see 3900 again by the end of December, but I'll adjust that as we go based on trends. Past trends, today we have... Earnings; META gave disappointing results at the close yesterday. I see that bleeding into at least the morning session here. Today though, we've got Apple and Amazon, but not until AMC. Also Intel, T-Mobile, and a slew of other companies. Today may be the biggest Earnings reporting day of the quarter. Expect big movement from it all, volatility galore. Economic Data; We've got our usual Jobless Claims today in 30 minutes. That one has been big every week because of how it may impact the FED decision going forward. Also, we have GDP today. I honestly don't know how everyone will want GDP to look. If it is bad, because no one can afford products from America because of our financial tightening causing the dollar to become so strong, will they see that as good? Or if it comes in bad, and signals a global slowdown and global recession in addition to a US one, do we see that as good? Or if it comes in good, does it mean we see that as bad because it means the FED can continue with rate hikes? Guess we will find out! Anyways, my sentiment has changed, and is as follows; Shorter Term - Bearish (next couple hours) Short Term - Neutral (By close of day) Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral (Next couple weeks) Long Term - Bearish/Neutral (Next couple months) As you can see, I've gone full bear mode for the moment until we collect some of these trends, having believed we've already struck most if not all of this rally. Could we see 4000? Maybe... but any upward movement at this point is just a prelude to selling the rip one more time until we collect our trends. There is no reason for us to just suddenly head skyward with all the current issues in the market and how long this downward movement has been. As always, safe trading. Remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
30m Trend has usurped the Market; Does it continue today?So, the question of the day is the same as yesterdays. I predicted the market correctly with almost absolute accuracy, but unfortunately, that was my least likely scenario of the two scenarios I said could play out yesterday. Right down to within a few points of where I said we'd likely peak yesterday if the 30m ran away with the market. We got a few bars to begin signaling a downtrend, but none of them held out and we just kept bouncing off this lower uptrending line. Note - I misspeak in the video that I had said yesterday we could go up to 38 "80", and I think because I was looking at where we were (in the 30s) I said 3830. If you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends for today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3792 Uptrend (10/24/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3741 Uptrend (10/20/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3734 Uptrend (10/21/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3779 Downtrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Something to watch, is that there was more volume in the moments after the market closed yesterday than any short time duration during the actual market being open, to include the opening and closing bells. That had to do with Google and Microsoft mostly. Initially it appears the forward guidance of both companies is in question, and both stocks had an initial plummet. We will have to see if that continues into the trading session today once there has been more time to process things. Past that, Earnings and the potential of escalating geopolitical issues will most likely take center stage today over Economic Data. Meta and some other major companies report today, though nothing of the scope and size of yesterday or what we have pending tomorrow. I'm holding this negative trade to see if we can even get a downtrending 30m signal here, of if it appears the 30m will once again run away with the market all by itself. If I have to take a loss, as I said in the video, my risk management plan says any major loss is followed by walking away from the market for the day, possibly a second day, and coming back once refreshed. My sentiment is as follows; Shorter Term (Next couple hours) - Bearish Short Term (Overall for Today) - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term (Next week or two) - Bullish Long Term (Next couple months) - Bearish Trade safely! Remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
4
30m Trend Attempting to Runaway with the Market; Can it sustain?So yesterday's price movement fell entirely inside the 30m trend lines. That certainly caught me off guard a little, and while I'm sitting at basically zero in my short of 3800, I missed out on capitalizing on $2000 by not seeing that coming. In fact, while I was making this video I saw the 30m downtrend signaling at 3790 which is right in line with the uptrending downtrend line, and we ended up bouncing off that area yet again. However, that just isn't the trade I'm currently looking for, and I want to see a 4hr downtrend. I am, to a degree, beginning to accept I may not get to see my 4hr downtrend mark. I'm not completely giving up on it yet, but many of the other trends are beginning to show an uptrend and so I have to be able to accept we leave that one major trend behind. I've never seen the 4hr left behind yet, but... I had never observed the 12hr left behind to such a degree like we did in July either. If you don't want to watch the video, the current trends are as such; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3792 Uptrend (10/24/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3741 Uptrend (10/20/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3734 Uptrend (10/21/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3779 Downtrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low *Note - I realized I forgot to change "Higher Low" to "Higher High" on the 30m during the video. While I respect the hard work done by the 30m trend yesterday, I don't know I believe it has the ability to run away with this market while simultaneously defying the 4hr downtrend. If we are going to defy the 4hr downtrend, I'd want to see the 1hr, and I'd like to see the 2hr, show they are on board here also. So basically, I expect, still, a major downward movement before any upward movement can sustain. In other areas... Earnings; This is huge today. There are some decent companies coming out BTO, which I go over in the video. After the market is where the real fun begins, and these stocks will likely have some major movement prior to that also. Google and Microsoft both report today. Expect them to drag this market with them whichever way they go, both in their own stock price and those of companies that have any association to them, being they are such heavyweights in the S&P. Visa is also today, and I expect Visa to have some major momentum throughout the market also. Economic Data; Consumer Confidence is today. That is the only one I see could be a major momentum mover today. That is later at 10am EST. Geopolitical Issues; The usual, although I'm keeping some extra focus on China right now. They've had some pretty intense political things occurring, which having that out in the open is very unlike China. Additionally, a few companies have been demanding US employees leave, and their own market has been crashing because of concern over issues abroad. My sentiment overall is much like yesterday; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish / Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends call for a down, Before we can have more upIn the end my Friday ending trade only netted me $1000. Not a big deal, as I think the current price action has setup for an even better move. I think we are just overdoing it on the upward movement here, and that we will come down and snag that 4hr downtrend still before we head up. Additionally, any continuation of this rally needs to have a healthier formation, and aside from the 30m we don't have much that is going to lead a proper upward movement, and I don't believe the 30m uptrend wins out against the longer-term trends pushing us down currently. I had banked for a long on Friday, although if you followed along, I didn't expect that much of an upward movement nor did I think it would sustain and continue even at the close. If you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3739 Downtrend (10/24/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3741 Uptrend (10/20/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3734 Uptrend (10/21/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3779 Downtrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I've currently just gone short at 3800 while writing this. I had talked about doing it depending on how it looked, and it hit before I could finish typing this out. In terms of Earnings; Not a lot of major earnings for today In terms of Economic Data; PMI Manufacturing Data is today. Could cause some issues, but overall I think we trade on a more technical level today. I mention it, but be aware we have GDP Thursday and PCE on Friday. Geopolitical Issues; Some of these issues I see as potentially boiling over soon, and none of them currently would be a positive for the markets. China's stance on Taiwan, UK's internal issues, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine and threat of using a small tactical nuke all are causing a lot of turmoil, and could really push things down if they continue to escalate. My Sentiment on the day is thus; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish / Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Quick housekeeping item. As I mention, I will be off backpacking from Friday to Monday. So I will not be around to witness the chaos caused by the PCE report, and won't be able to do any follow up until Tuesday to how the market reacts Friday or follows up on Monday. Safe Trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends have moved exactly as expected; So what's next?!So the market attempted to pump and fight against the 2hr downtrend hitting. My initial intent was to go long once we started looking at the 2hr or maybe a 4hr if things went down, but when the market pumped upwards I just shook my head and started to get into Short positions. That netted me $3500, or 70 points, down on the S&P. I was fairly certain we would hit at least 3650, but I decided to cash out at 3670 and enjoy my day. If you aren't interested in the video today, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3667 Downtrend (10/20/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 3741 Uptrend (10/20/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3676 Downtrend (10/20/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low So where do we go from here? Well, we have this beautiful 2hr channel forming an uptrend. However, as we are below that funnel, we have to look at what is below us at the moment, and will focus on that 2hr channel if we get back up towards the base of it. For now... I'm looking to see if we get a 3hr downtrend (which we are currently signaling) and that 4hr downtrend I've mentioned I was bothered that we left behind. I'm assuming the 4hr downtrend will hit right along the descending Uptrend line we currently have, which is around 3620. So basically, I may go long around 3620ish depending on how the market looks, or go long if we rally back up around 3680 depending on how the market looks there. I can't see anything currently that would make me want to short the market today. Outside of Trends, we've got... Earnings; American Express and Verizon are today. Those would be the ones to look at. Verizon could cause shockwaves into the communication sector, and American Express might shed light on how bad of a recession we are heading towards. Economic Data; Nothing major. My sentiment overall; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bullish Long Term -Bearish Remember your risk management plan, and safe trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
10/20/2022 Trends Showing Healthier Formation into a RallyFirst, like I say in the video, I again want to show my appreciation for the overwhelming support yesterday after I made Editor's Pick. It was both humbling and an honor. So, if you just want to know how the market is trending and don't care for the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3715 Downtrend (10/20/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3708 Downtrend (10/19/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3700 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Realize the 30m change while I was doing the video, so I hadn't moved the line over yet, but it basically is paralleling the current 1hr line staying about 5 points lower. Overall, I still want to see that 2hr Downtrend signal. Especially after we touched it 3 times yesterday. I do see we are currently have a small mini rally, I just can't quite get into that long sentiment until we have a small movement down. I do believe that ultimately overall on the day we could see a positive for the day, I just think we have a quick dip before we get that. It may be TESLA that leads us lower in the opening of the US Markets, as while they beat Earnings estimates, it was only due to increased price hikes and they appear to be suffering from shipping and manufacturing issues. Elon did make statements about the company doing a buyback on the stock, however, knowing Elon, that was likely just him attempting to inflate the stock price of TESLA before he has to do his major sell off to gain the money he needs for the Twitter deal. So yeah, I wanna see us briefly run lower, snag the 2hr downtrend (I'd prefer we grab a 4hr downtrend), pause and see how the market reacts to those movements, and then look for long positions to get into a rally that could last the remainder of October. On other areas - Earnings; These are your big ones, again with emphasis on AT&T I think driving their sector sentiment. Danaher - BTO Phillip Morris - BTO AT&T - BTO (Big One) Union Pacific - BTO Economic Data; Jobless Claims and Philly Manufacturing Data will be the ones I keep an eye on. Geopolitical Issue; I forgot to mention in the video, but allegedly Putin is having a meeting about launching a Tactical Nuke in the Black Sea region. Will he? I doubt it. However, look for his saber rattling to cause some caution in the market. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bullish I'm fairly cautious at the moment on getting into anything, I'll update as the day goes on if I see good signals for an entry. As always, remember your risk management plan. Long Term - Bearish Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
4
Little Direction with Trends in the Market; Patience is KeyIf you don't want to watch the video, here is the trends going into 10/19/2022; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3709 Downtrend (10/18/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3681 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3700 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As I said in the video, things are a bit mixed up at this point, with medium timeframe trends accompanied by the 6hr trend in an uptrend, and the 4hr, 12hr, and Daily all in that downtrend. I expect today to be a negative overall for the day, perhaps bringing us down below 3700 several times. However, before we get there, we have to see if this 1hr Uptrending line can maintain us as a support level, which thus far it has managed to accomplish. The 30m and 2hr were pretty close to each other, and we ended up crashing through both just recently going into this morning, which reversed another near 1.5% gain overnight at the peak. While I find it frustrating to have to sit out, I'd prefer to let the market show me a design in all of these major upswings and downswings, then to jump in on the wrong side of a major movement and have to take a quick negative loss. Basically I feel we are currently in almost a 50/50 in where we go from here, but any movement up I have little faith in, since the bullish uptrends just haven't formed enough to begin erasing such a bearish market, even for a bear market rally. Outside of Trends we've got; Earnings - Tesla is AMC today. That will be a major driving force in the market today. Reports I have is that revenue is at an all time high, but more because of price hikes than sales, and that the company may be having issues meeting the projecting sales growth they wanted. There are a few other major companies I went over in the video, and I'll report on the big ones in the comments as we go. Economic Data - Nothing major today that I see really driving the market anywhere. It'll be movements more based around earnings and technicals than any economic data. My current sentiment; Shorter Term ; Neutral Short Term ; Bearish Medium Term ; Bullish Long Term ; Bearish What a bag of mixed feelings that is, right? Anyways, remember your risk management plan, and safe trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
12
ES1! 10. 19. 22 About five trading days earlier we found a reversal market that was going to go higher. It would have been very profitable trade. At this point I would be looking to close my position if I been in this market. In this video I will show you I might do that. I don't think I would short this market if I were not in the market, but if something shows up, and I see it as a reversal, I will post on that. The ES Is clearly a bear mark, and almost definitely will go significantly lower yeah, but I'm not sure this foolish swing higher is completed. Taking profits to close it's much different then entering to short.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin
Reversal continues - But driven by foreign markets again?So I am shocked that the market is starting out again on a 2% gain for the day before the US Markets are open. Obviously major firms know how to purchase stocks using foreign markets, but this continued push in the foreign markets overnight is not something I see continuing to be allowed by US Traders. If you just want the trends, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3635 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3681 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3700 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As you can see, we've gotten some great reversal trades beginning. The 6hr showed up as a higher high, as did the 2hr. I have some concern that the 4hr is being left so far behind, and that the 30m was a downtrend and is not nearly 130 points in the rear view mirror. That will likely get corrected today, but it won't put us into negative territory to try and make it happen. I'm really curious if at the opening bell if the US market will allow the foreign market to retain all the premarket gains again, and come in only able to acquire 1/3 on the day again. I have been calling for a rally, I just feel this rally is a little too much to soon for me to feel confident that it will persist without a pullback. It is likely I may stay out of this trading day today while I wait for the market to give more guidance. I'd like to see us go down to snag a 4hr downtrend mark, and then push higher with all these higher trends forming. Earnings; JNJ, Lockhead, and Netflix are the big earnings for the day. Economic Data; Nothing really major for this. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Trends going into 10/17/2022; Earnings, Data, and MoreIf you worked alongside me on Friday I had said we would fall down to around 3600 and get a small bounce. Based on this, I entered a trade after seeing we didn't push lower at the open and was able to capitalize overnight for about $2000. Can't complain about making money in your sleep, right? If you just want the trends, they are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3635 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3640 Downtrend (10/14/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3604 Downtrend (10/14/2022) Lower Low 3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low While it has gone about 10 points higher than I cashed out at, that was more to ensure I secured profit than me believing we wouldn't go higher. With where we are currently, I'd expect thing to hit an uptrend on the 1hr, as the lower high of the downtrends you can see was a major upward trending line (Grey). An Uptrend on the 1hr here over the next couple hours would give us an almost flat uptrending line, with it likely at this point being a slightly higher high. Major levels I am watching is when it hits that 4hr lower high uptrend line (Green), which sits around 3662 at the moment. If we begin to fall lower, I'd likely be looking to see if we bounce off of the lower low downtrending 2hr line (Blue) which currently sits around 3580ish. If we hit the 4hr line, than the 30m lower high uptrend would appear to be oversold (Purple), and I'd expect us to come down and snag a downtrend on the 30m and see if that gives us a higher low or a lower low. As I point out in the video, we are currently operating well inside the very healthy trend channel of the 12hr lower high and lower low trend lines (Orange). Past Trends... Earnings; Bank of America and Charles Schwab are the big ones today, both might be out by now, I'll look after posting this. Economic Data; There is some minor manufacturing data, but it will likely have little significance unless it surprises well outside expectations. My Sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bearish Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Neutral Long Term - Neutral Bearish I do have some concerns that I've been running almost too hot lately, and have been attempting to not get overconfident or complacent (hence why I sat out Friday in spite of the market doing exactly what I expected). Having already made a couple grand today, I feel I should really make sure I'm trading correctly and don't begin jumping into trades based on "feeling good" about my trades. Part of my trading psychology. Don't forget to keep yours in focus, and remember your risk management plan. Safe trading.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2