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Trends maxed to the downside; And what is all this about Banks?!So on Friday I went Long at the close of the day into the weekend. That netted a $2500 trade right away when things opened up into Sunday evening. I cashed out on that, and was pleasantly surprised to see all those gains given up overnight. I then went Long again when we briefly went into negative territory at 3894, and moved up with it slowly, where I was eventually stopped out on the reverse movement at 3914 for another $1000. $3500 before the open of Monday for the week is pretty fantastic. I attempted one more Long here but was stopped out for $50 profit, and at this point I'll just be looking for signs the upward momentum is beginning again. There is some confusion in drawing trends as the /ESK contract ended and now we are in the /ESM contract. I changed the trend numbers all over to the current /ESM contract, and they are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3916 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3886 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; My more likely trading scenario, as we are maxed out in all trends to the downside at the moment. I expect any down movement to have a pop back to the upside. So I will be more or less looking for good entry points that show that upward momentum is beginning, and run it up until it appears it might fail and cash out. We had a significant downward movement Friday with decent momentum, so I don't know that a rally will stick, but certainly I expect an upward spiking whipsaw day at least, even if we end relatively flat. The Short Position; This banking thing has many on edge. If we do get a spike up, it could be followed by a strong move back down, and if we hit up against the current lows of the 3890 area enough times, we might just bust through it and head lower for the day, continuing the meltdown we've seen over the last 2 days because of this SVB saga. Earnings; Adobe is this week, but otherwise Earnings are still nonexistent. Economic Data; We have nothing for today. However, we do have CPI Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday, with more job numbers on Thursday. Should definitely be a wild ride this week. I find it interesting that we are set for a technical bounce just before important inflation data. It means the market is primed for a major spike upward if this data comes in showing inflation is continuing to cool. Side Note; If you haven't been checking into the Silicon Valley Bank run, you really need to read into it. Thus far, basically SVB didn't position against the rate hikes very well, they moved to acquire more capital, it got out they needed capital, and this caused a frenzy of withdrawals that ultimately led to the Banks immediate collapse. The FDIC came in and took the bank over, and initially only deposits up to $250,000 were insured. This is a similar situation that occurred in 2008 during the great recession with Washington Mutual just before 500 other banks also ran into financial crisis. Therefore everyone had a sudden fear of other banks going under like before, and there has been a mass sell off in Financial related stocks. However, in analyzing things, banks are significantly less interconnected and have to establish better practices to protect against this, and while SVB made a mistake here, it wasn't that it mismanaged anything long term. They just made a single hiccup, so widespread fallout appears to be unlikely. Additionally, the FDIC has come out and said they will ensure all the money of all depositors, so no one will lose out other than investors. However, the fallout of this may very well force the FOMC to not just keep rate hikes lower at 25bps (it was believed late last week we could go to 50bps), but even pause the rate hike with not even a 25bps hike in order to make sure the financial sector remains healthy in the US. Certainly trade it as you see fit, but overall I think the panic move on this has most certainly been overdone, and we went about 30-40 points to low on Friday, even for a potential downward move. My sentiment into today, from 3895, is; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends maxed to the downside - But Payrolls (and soybeans?!?)So while I exited a bit too early, my prediction came about yesterday, and here we are. With us being maxed out to the downtrend, except the 30m that just popped an uptrend, I've some concerns that we will have a technical bounce up to gather some of the higher timeframe trends before we decide if we go flat briefly and rally, or build strength to head lower. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3911 Uptrend (3/10/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3919 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Any major movement down, especially if we get a 30m downtrend, will likely reverse back up to our current level. Additionally, we could see a technical bounce today, I'm just not sure it happens instantaneously. This is my more likely scenario excluding factoring in Economic Data (see below). However, every uptrend we hit is going to be a potential resistance, so I don't know that I will hold a Buy position for very long. The Short Position; I could see that if we come up, that we might want to briefly visit the lows of the day before we end up neutral. So basically, head lower at the open, to the lows, before settling there for the day or even coming back up. I'm not sure I'll take this position today, but it is the scenario that plays out if we head short. Economic Data; Payrolls and Unemployment is today. Likely going to be a major factor in the markets. So prepare yourself. My sentiment for the day (from 3910; Shorter Term - Bullish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Long Term - Neutral I will make this as a "Long", but just fyi, I don't see us having a major 1.5%-2% day to the upside. I think we could end just slightly higher than where we are by the close of the day. Safe Trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
1
Patience is Encouraged in the center of range bound territory.So I had done a short trade based on some in the moment indicators we'd have a bit of a bounce at 13:00 EST yesterday and going even lower after. It was a safe trade that netted just over $1000. Not bad, considering I didn't expect to go short at all. Overall we are in the same basic picture today as yesterday. I'll be looking for a technical move up to a 30m or even 1hr uptrend to go short, and additionally if we have a soft move down I MIGHT go long again to come back up towards the 4000 level. I think my stance is a bit more bearish than bullish at the moment, but that changed yesterday and could change again. Either way, I don't know in the short term we have a major move one way or another unless Jobless Claims surprise the market. The Trends are the same as yesterday; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4051 Downtrend (3/07/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; My least likely scenario, but if nothing seems to be needing to be priced in the market and we trickle down, I'd expect some buying pressure to bring us back up towards 4000. So I may go long at this point if we run down towards 3960 or so. Would need something to help me see a momentary bounce to buy in right now though. The Short Position; Being no surprising market data, I expect a brief pop still in the market, potentially towards the 4010 level or just below it along the mid time frame trend lines. I'd then look for signs that pop is fading and that it is just the next downward movement gaining strength. This avenue has a slightly stronger chance to me than the Long Position. Market Data; Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims. Look for a surprise to one direction or the other. Additionally, I felt that perhaps the market didn't price in the NonFarm ADP report from yesterday. That movement (downward, I suspect) could come in priced late. My sentiment (From 3984); Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Buliish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral I am going to list this as Short at the moment, as overall I think we head down from here, though I wouldn't just blindly short the market at the point and I want more clarity. Safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Recap of the Powell Testimony and Market Direction AnalysisNot sure how the video ended up so long, probably because of the rambling on the Powell Testimony and the impact on the market, but here we are. The 4010 level stayed relevant so long that 4 trends in a row all landed on that mark even though they ended at different times. I wouldn't be surprised if we briefly revisit that level before we head further south. The Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4051 Downtrend (3/07/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; With trends nearly maxed to the downside, I could see us having a bounce back. Additionally, we are around that 4000 level that has kept us range bound for 5 months now. Perhaps this time it acts as a support to surge us back up. The Short Position; The more likely option in my opinion. MACD Momentum has a weekly signal downward, the Daily Uptrend signal is fading, and the 2hr to 6hr trends were all lower lows, paving the way for more downward movement. Additionally, it was an above 2 million volume day, I don't think that sort of momentum just ends without a sideways day at least. I could see us continue to push downward back towards that 3913 level at least, even if there is a brief bounce back up to 4000-4010. Economic Data; More Powell Testimony. I went over some highlights of that in the video. Additionally, we have the JOLTs Job Data from January, which could surprise to the upside and cause a ruckus. The ADP Non Farm is also here shortly, and any surprise on that might also cause ripples in the market. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends into 3/6 week call for some initial corrective actionThe rally I had expected showed up, and now I feel it is time to have a cooling off moment before it decides where we head to next. In order to save a lot of time, I've removed the trend lines I usually maintain, because it takes a while to have to draw them out, and just went with the major one that is in focus, and listing all the trends in the box. Ultimately we have a number of lower high's from the 1hr to the 6hr that we have violated. That leads me to believe that some of this rally may come back, and we need some cooling off before we decide a direction. I don't know that I want to get into any major positions with the market at the moment until I get some clarification. The Trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4044 Downtrend (3/06/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3969 Uptrend (3/2/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 3983 Uptrend (3/2/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4013 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4006 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4039 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If I see a few downtrend signals pop that allow us to have a higher low, but the price action begins to rally off that mark, I will likely go in Long to capitalize on the current rally movement as I've not had a signal that this rally should end in the short term at this time. The Short Position; I've received a sell signal on my Momentum script on a weekly basis. I don't have a lot of back study involved in a price diversion between the weekly movement and weekly move signal, but we've been in a rally and had an up week, but ended last week with a sell signal. I find that concerning. I think at least in the short term, if some micro trends or even the 30m begin to show continued lower lows and lower highs, I will likely short the market at least back to 4000. This is my more likely expectation of the next movement. My sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral I'm not ready to throw in the towel on a rally just yet, I just see some potential downside before more possible upside, so I want to wait and be patient. Because I believe the first movement could be a down move, I'm listing this as a Short for the day. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends and MACD MomentumSo, we absolutely struck my target zone of 3913-3930 yesterday. I waited for confirmation we'd spin around, and went long at 3945. As I said I cashed that out at 3988 just because I didn't want to hold into the close. That provided a 2 hour lower high uptrend mark, and I waited to see if we would cross that later once things opened back up, and got long yesterday evening again at 3978 into today. I'm currently holding that trade. The Long Position; I still believe we need to correct the violated trends of the 3hr/4hr/6hr. The 3hr has thus far not shown up yet when we were at 4000ish, we will see when it does. Additionally, I explain in my video, but I wrote a script that shows MACD Momentum, and indicates buy (or long) and sell (or short) signals off that information. I used to use this to trade exclusively over a year ago, as it shows MACD Trends, but overall didn't feel it was a good primary use, because many times it would show a buy signal after a significant move upward and things might reverse. What I learned over time however, was the gem of this script, was really in the divergence of the signal vs price. Basically, if it gives a buy signal while price is moving down, price either goes flat, or does reverse to the upside. Likewise if it provides a sell signal as price has been going up, that also indicates a reversal or at least price flattening. Some dates this has occurred over the last year; 2/7/2023 - Sell Signal on Upward Price 12/27/2022 - Buy Signal on Downward Price 9/29/2022 - Buy Signal on Downward Price 8/18/2022 - Sell Signal on Upward Price 8/4/2022 - Sell Signal on Upward Price (this one didn't work) 6/6/2022 - Sell Signal on Upward Price 5/25/2022 - Buy Signal on Downward Price Others before that worked the same way. So yeah, if you look, those were great signals for a reversal. Well we just had one on 3/1/2023, a buy signal on downward price movement. The Short Position; I could see some momentary downside to correct the 30m/1h/2hr so we can have some higher lows that lead us upward. I think any downward movement at this point will be short lived for the time being. Economic Data; We have ISM Non Manufacturing Data today. I don't know it'll be a catalystic driving force, but... there is some potential for market movement. Earnings; There are no Earnings today. My Sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bullish Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading! Remember that risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends continue maxing out to the downsideShort video today. Basically I attempted several times to go Long in the market, and was profit stopped out every time for about $100. I went Long yet again this morning at 3935, for the same reasons I went Long yesterday, we are basically maxed out to the downside and in violation of several trends that will demand we fix ourselves (the 3hr/4hr/6hr/12hr). The Long Position; The one I'm in. I think we are headed back up to correct some of the trends we've left behind. I suspect around 4050ish, but we will see how things look when we get there. The Short Position; We could continue to swoop down little by little to hit my target of 3913, so each rally could fail for the moment, causing several small 10-20 point short positions while the 30m attempts to run with the market like it did yesterday. I will not be going short, but this is the scenario where I see that happening. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3964 Downtrend (3/01/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3977 Downtrend (2/28/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; Jobless Claims and Labor cost will both be watched closely today. Earnings; Broadcom and Costco are the big movers of the day. I did mention in the video that the late plummet yesterday fell on Elon, being Elon, and providing some weird Elon guidance about Tesla that didn't resonate so well. Not an Earning but important none the less. My sentiment is much like yesterday; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral Safe trading and remember that risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Why Equities Are Going To Be Choppy ES1! & MNQ1! When the Indices are working together we get clean moves. When there is divergence in the technicals between the E-mIni S&P 500 and the E-mini Nasdaq 100 we get a very choppy environment and it usually frustrates a lot of traders. March is setting up for a bumpy ride as there is no clear path for the Indexes right now. In this video I explain why the S&P and Nasdaq will remain choppy in the near future, why traders need to keep an eye on the 10Y1! and the 2YY1!, and what we need to see happen on the charts to give the bulls or bears control of the market. I use Bollinger Bands, Auto Anchored VWAP, RSI and Moving Averages for my technical tools. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. Derivatives trading is not suitable for all investors.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by anthonycrudele
2
Trends nearing a max movement to the downsideSo I was searching for a Long position, and after the close yesterday I went Long on both ES Futures, as well as 6E Futures. I woke up this morning to both coming in very well. I cashed in at just below $2500. While it looks like I may have jumped ship a bit early on the Euro, I seem to have gotten out at a good point on the S&P as we've given some of the gains back there. So all things seem to even out overall. I have some concern that the last 30m uptrend is a lower high, although because we immediately broke up past it, I'm not putting a lot of confidence that it has any plans to lead us anywhere. If we can get a 30m downtrend to come in above 3972, it will flip and be a higher low anyways. That was the only trend that changed yesterday, and it changed a total of 4 times in 24 hours, which shows we are more or less range bound. While I think things are looking up, at least briefly, to correct the 3hr/4hr/6hr trends, the downward movement with some commitment at the close of yesterday as me a bit concern to not just sit in a Long position at the moment, and cash in Longs and then wait for another potential entry. The Long Position; A movement down is likely to be followed by a movement up. I'll be looking for those movements to get into another long position again. The Short Position; I don't know that I'll take any shorts today honestly. I think we are overdue for some upward movement. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3980 Uptrend (3/01/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 3977 Downtrend (2/28/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI will be things to watch regarding the overall health of the economy. However, it is anyone's guess if the Market prices in bad news as bad news, or bad news as good news, much like we saw a lack of decision in a lower than expected Consumer Confidence Index of yesterday. Earnings; Lowes is this morning. Most retailers have reported better than expected Earnings, with potentially bleak forward guidance. Although, Home Depot had positive forward guidance because of the expectation that DIY home improvements will increase, so Lowes may have the same expectation. Salesforce is also then AMC in reporting. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Neutral (Bullish then Bearish, basically) Long Term - Neutral Safe Trading, and remember your risk management! I am marking this as a "Long" because of the Bullish movement I think is overdue here.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends and Direction into 2/28/2023Don't worry, much shorter video today since I went through my long winded explanation of the overall market picture yesterday. So I had said I would short at a 1hr uptrend yesterday. I went short at 4013 for a $1000 goal at 3993. I did have to hold through the bounce up which began to signal a 2hr uptrend, and I cashed out early at 3994 when we came back down, but overall I got what I was looking for. I then sat out the rest of the day. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3997 Uptrend (2/28/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 3977 Downtrend (2/23/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Short Move; From yesterday into today, the 30m and 1hr have both altered their trend direction upward, especially if we finish a 1hr uptrend around here. I am then waiting to see the 2hr uptrend come back into play again, and evaluate if the trends will immediately run back up to snag higher trends or if I can take a short position. The Long Move; On the flip side, because I expect a brief upward movement to collect several violated trends, if we go lower before getting a 2hr uptrend, and push below the 1hr I may actually go long depending on how the movement looks. We are fairly maxed to the downtrends, aside from a daily, so any major move downward would then have to fizzle out and be ripe for several brief long positions. Economic Data; I saw a major swing upward at 3am EST, and looked to see what may have caused such sentiment, and I did note that Spanish CPI came in higher than expected. The logic behind the move is that perhaps European Investors bailed on Euro stocks and jumped into US stocks. I'll mostly be watch for Chicago PMI (9:45am EST) and CB Consumer Confidence (10am EST) today though, as those are the more important things for US markets today. Earnings; I'm about to head over and see how Target did, as I believe it will cause a major interest in the health of the overall economy. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral I am going to list this as a "Short" because my target is still overall 3913ish, even though I foresee some upside before we head that way. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Trends and Movements Heading into the WeekGreetings! Had a great time skiing up in Vermont, was nice to take a brief pause away from the market and enjoy the whole reason I trade for a living (more free time and flexibility). I'm back, and be prepared for a bit of a longer video as I catch things up. Trends; In terms of trends, we ran down along the 30m and 1hr trends to get here. While the 2hr was in a lower low, we've run well outside of any 2hr funnel, and we have also violated the 3hr/4hr/6hr higher low trends. While I had said last week I expected this, I think we now need to do some correcting before we can head too much lower. We've currently broke above a lower high 30m, and I foresee us moving to a 1hr uptrend that will also be a lower high. I'll be looking for an initial movement down from this uptrend signal, and may short briefly there, but ultimately I think we will break above that briefly to get a 2hr/3hr/4hr uptrend, before we finish a move back down. Price Target; My longer term price target of 3913 is still my expectation. It does appear that the resistance line along all the rallies of 2022 that we broke past, may have become a downsloping support line. If we are heading for 3913, and that slope continues to act as support, it appears we will get to 3913 at around March 14th (ish). From 3913, I could build up potential movements for either direction, so I won't provide either one, since that doesn't really give any real guidance. Economic Data; There is some housing and manufacturing data, as well as some overall economy data this week, but I don't know that any of it will be groundbreaking and since shockwaves through the market. As usual, the jobs data on Thursday will be watched, and there are several FOMC members giving speeches on Friday. Earnings; There are a few notable retailers this week, such as Target, Costco, and Lowes. I expect Lowes to be doing well, based on the same reasons I expected Home Depot to do well (I go into detail in the video again on this). I do think that the sentiment of Target and Costco could ripple through the market, as if they are struggling it may appear or give cause to think the general economy is weakening. Otherwise, there is Broadcom and SalesForce and some other decent sized companies this week, although I believe this week will mostly finish up Earnings season for us. My overall sentiment into today (from 3998 where we are now); Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Maybe slightly bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe Trading! Remember your risk management plan! I'm going to mark this as "Short" because of my continued expectation we hit 3913, even if the short term I expect some potential upside.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Week Long Analysis of 2/21 Week AheadSo full disclosure, I cashed out my short from 4162 this morning at 4152. That was a $5,500 profit. I would have likely held the short for continued movement towards my goal of 3913 +\- 20, but I am heading to Vermont this week to ski, because Winter forgot to show up in most of the East Coast this year and I want to get some time on the slopes with my rentals I paid for (Only been able to go 4 times this year, including the trip to New York). Anyways, overall I am still Bearish, and would look to see if we get a 12hr downtrend mark here that would close around 13:00 EST today. It hasn't shown up yet, but I wasn't watching when it dipped to the low of 4047, so maybe it flagged around there. I could see a minor bounce around that timeframe if it hits to give us some 30m/1hr uptrend movement before it heads further south. I find the inability of this market to have a meltdown interesting this year, and has increased the need for me to look at things in a more day trading sentiment than swing trading. Overall the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4154 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low It should be noted we are going from a 4hr downtrend to a 12hr downtrend in this movement, because the 6hr downtrend struck back on February 10th. I do have some concern that before a final move down to 3913, we could see a 2hr/3hr/4hr uptrend because all of the downtrends we hit there were higher lows. What to Watch; Earnings - We have some big earnings for this week. If I'm not mistaken though, it is just this week and next week for the last of Earnings season. The S&P is sitting at around 22x Forward Earnings, an increase over this year so far from 18x Forward Earnings. That seems way too high to me for this current economic climate, as the major companies of the S&P missed their Earnings report by about 8% overall. Economic Data; Tuesday (Today) - We have some manufacturing data and housing market stuff. Important but not groundbreaking in my opinion. Wednesday - Fed Meeting Minutes. Look for reinforced hawkish (though less hawkish) rhetoric. I think the idea that the Fed is going to cut rates this year is finally going away and the market will need to accept that. Thursday - GDP and Jobs data. Jobs data has been important for a while, but look to GDP to show some guidance if we are hitting a soft landing, a hard landing, or (the new) no landing. Of those three, the soft landing is the best outcome according to most Economists. Friday - PCE data, which is currently on track to show a decline year over year but an increase month over month. The last CPI was a flat move sideways with no decline in inflation, and the PPI showed an increase in cost production for inflation, so it would make sense that the PCE could show a momentary return of inflation increasing, which will cause a big panic that the next rate hike will be a 50bps increase. That about sums it up, I look forward to stepping away from the market for the week. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral (from 4050) Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and REMEMBER YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN. I can't stress that enough, that what makes me successful at trading is my ability to follow my risk management plan (at least 99% of the time). I have my own rules laminated and hanging above my workstation. Have a great week!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
The FOMO Rally is slipping; Trends showing a mixed bagSo I still think we are going to head lower, though I expect a potential technical bounce here. I have some concerns that the 3hr/4hr/6hr are all higher lows, but at least at the moment we've broken below them so they aren't potential support lines going down. My next main target is the 12hr downtrend and how we react to that. Additionally, we have broken down below the daily uptrend entry point of 4084, although each time we got below that we rallied higher by the end of the day, so I suppose we will see where it takes us by the close. All in all, I still hope to hit that target range of 3913 with +\- 20 (mostly plus). I think the macro-economic situation supports that movement as well, and that this overzealous and excessively optimistic market rally is going to come to an end, though Bulls may fight it on the way down. Trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4154 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; Not much data, but there are more FOMC Members speaking today, even if they aren't voting members. Additionally, I recommend going back to listen to Fed Mester speak yesterday evening. Some fairly hawkish rhetoric coming out lately. Earnings; Deere did well apparently, and is currently up 3%. There isn't much else to report on the earnings front. I mention it in the video, but side note, I will likely be heading up to Ski in Vermount next week. Maybe not the whole week, but if we rally it is likely I'll cash out and close my position and enjoy the week off and the little bit of snow I can find on the East Coast of the US this Winter. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bullish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Is the buy the dip mentality back? Trends for 2/8/2023So I got into a short on the first peak, made profit on the dip and was stopped out on the reverse momentum. I didn't jump in right away on the next surge, but did grab another short overnight as I still believe we head down shortly. I do not trust this rally until I see a genuine lower leg that holds and we rally off of. Every potential dip was just bought up en masse, and I think we need to test some support levels before I trust that this market is trying to make the way back up past 4200/4300. Trends for today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4161 Downtrend (2/8/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4166 Uptrend (2/7/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (2/7/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4142 Uptrend (2/1/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low There is some brief area for us to spike up and hit the 6hr and 4hr trend lines, but I don't know that we do that with us having topped out the 1hr and 2hr already. The wide swings has really made the 30m unreliable for the moment. There is no major economic data today, though there are several Fed Speakers scheduled to give some insight. Earnings aside from Disney is going to be relatively smaller companies (for the S&P anyways). My sentiment for today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2