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Trends nearly maxed out to the downside nowJust a few days ago, I had said we were maxing out to the upside. I expected us to go lower, but I certainly didn't expect to max out from an uptrending position to a downtrending position in less than 72 hours. We've managed to make it past the 12hr lower low downtrend which stopped me out overnight. I saw we were right along the lower low downtrend of the Daily we've had here and took that as a potential long position and got in at 3880. I see only two potential price actions from here... Even if we run flat here briefly, ultimately we can either run up to gather a 30m/1hr/2hr uptrend, which allows for us to make runs further down, or we continue down enough to get a daily downtrend signal, which maxes out our downtrends and then we have to have a brief rally for at LEAST a 30m uptrend, though I'd expect a more technical bounce than that. I am currently positioned for the first, and if that fails, than I'll likely try to wait to see if the 1st scenario resumes or wait for the 2nd scenario to develop, I won't trade in the middle ground of those two scenarios. For the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4037 Downtrend (12/13/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 4023 Downtrend (12/14/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 4008 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3946 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3978 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 6Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low In terms of economic data; We have some manufacturing data coming out today, although I don't believe it will be some sort of massive info surge into the market. There is also apparently 4 trillion in options expiration today, so while I don't understand options because I don't trade them, that will likely cause most of today's volatility. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bullish/Neutral Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
1
Some mixture in trends; 1hr/2hr call upward, 4hr/6hr want downI was able to not only make up for my poor trade on Tuesday, but also capitalize and put myself into profit for the week yesterday. I ended up closing out my trade from yesterday into today this morning, although it appears I may have jumped out a bit too early as we've already pushed 10 points past where I exited. All that being said, I'm just glad I was able to push back into a profitable week. The trend signals going into today have some mixture. The 1hr and 2hr would call for an upward bounce that would allow us to stay within this 12hr uptrend movement we are in, while the 3hr says we are exactly where we should be, and the 4hr and 6hr are calling for us to head down a bit further to create an overall downward trend. Overall, my sentiment is more in line with the 1hr and 2hr, but I'm going to be a bit cautious on where my entry points end up being to go Long. The trends for today, not including the currently pending 3hr, are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4037 Downtrend (12/13/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 4023 Downtrend (12/14/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 4008 Downtrend (12/14/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3993 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 4019 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 4023 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low In terms of Economic Data; We had a decrease in Initial Jobless Claims today, not what the FED will want to see. However, we did see a slight increase in continued jobless claims, what the FED wants to see. Also, there is some movement coming from the ECB decision of a 50 bps hike and the current press conference. Overall my sentiment is as follows (from the current location of 3970); Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bullish Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral/Bearish Trade safely and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Even with the pop upwards, trends held trueSo my trade didn't work out. I thought about it and decided I likely was being a bit greedy going into that trade and clearly was just "gambling" which I routinely warn against doing. While I likely would have made some if not all that money back, my risk management plan says if I lose a chunk of cash, I walk away for the day. Wasn't the first time, nor do I expect it to be the last. That being said, ultimately the trends held true. While we spiked well into an area above the trends being maxed out, I had said they won't be able to maintain any of that movement, and sure enough, even on good inflation data, they didn't and we ultimately went lower than when the data came out. Yesterday's candlestick is about as bearish as they come, although it could still go either way because of the economic data we now have to deal with today. At 14:00 EST is the FOMC Rate hike decision. I don't know that the decision will be significantly impacting, but the statement with the decision and the tone of the press conference afterwards likely is going to really impact market mood and sentiment. Due to getting a higher low 30m downtrend signal, I could see us rallying and holding some of that rally, at least into today. Ultimately though, my belief is that J Powell talks about how they can't roll over on fighting inflation just because we had a few good data points, that inflation is still way to high even if it is coming down, and that easing the fight could end up allowing inflation to creep back in and then be more difficult to fight off. He has said this multiple times. Therefore I see further rate hikes and certainly no rate cuts going into next year, and this will ultimately begin to hurt some returns and impact the market negatively as companies lose the ability to fake out earnings by beating low margins. The trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4038 Downtrend (12/13/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3990 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 4019 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3993 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 4019 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 4023 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; Like I said, it is a Fed Day. Prepare yourself. My overall sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/ Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish I basically think any rally off of this is going to falter and come back over the next week, then we will have a week of very little activity as most traders take off Christmas/New Years in the US. Remember your risk management plan and trade safely!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Trends claim to be nearly maxed out to the upside; Enter CPISo theoretically we are nearly maxed at trends. We've accumulated all the trends going upward in one swoop from 30m to 6hr. The 30m to 2hr claim to be in an uptrend, the 3hr to the 6hr claim to be in a downtrend. The 12hr claims we are in an uptrend, but that we are now sitting below of the funnel for that, and the Daily proclaims that we are sitting above the downtrending funnel for that. Confused? It is justified, because basically we have a set of trends sending us into different directions. All this mess and here we are going into CPI Data today and a FOMC rate hike decision tomorrow. Every time I think the market will settle before this data comes out, we have another 5 or 10 point surge upward too. It is moments like this I get to scratching my head when caution seems to begin to get tossed aside and the "hope brings hope" mentality of traders seems financially baffling to me. As I said I'm short 4049 based on trends. I may jump out of this trade before the CPI data, or just prepare to accept a potential loss of trends don't take hold. On these notes, here are the trends going into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3978 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3990 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 4019 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3993 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 4019 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 4023 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low If you are trading going into today, try to trade safely! My sentiment going into today is as follows; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading! Especially on weeks like these!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
5
Trends don't show clear direction; All eyes on CPI tomorrowSo overall trends appear to be wanting to send us down, but not with great conviction. We are well within the 12hr funnel that was taking us higher, but have a funnel from the 6hr that looks to take us lower. The price action of the two basically has us dead smack in the middle. The significant gap between the Z and H contract is also causing some issues with trends, as the Z contract was running about 35 points below the current H contract. This makes it look like there was a big jump in valuation (be it Friday for TradingView or today for my own program) but that just isn't the case, as that contract had steadily been above the price action we were looking at. Overall trends going into today are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3978 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3989 Downtrend (12/09/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 3965 Downtrend (12/09/2022) Lower Low 3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3945 Downtrend (12/06/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I adjusted a few of the numbers into the current H contract where as I had them at the Z level on Friday. I think because of this confusion in valuation I may enjoy just sitting back today and watching the market today. As I mention in the video, I'd like to try and make about $5000 this week, and if I do, I think I'll take the remainder of the year off or work very little while I enjoy the holidays. Economic Data; There is very little data that matters today. CPI is tomorrow and FOMC rate decision and 'guidance' is Wednesday. Prepare yourself. My sentiment going into today from this current level of about 3980 is as follows; Shorter Term - Bearish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish/Neutral So overall, I'm more looking at short positions, at least today. However, ultimately all things will be based on CPI data tomorrow. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends have corrected, but showed possible downside from hereSo here we are at 3990 just as I had expected us to go, where we are hitting back on that trendline that we broke. I can't say I've ever seen the TradingView chart have this consider pump in contract like it did this morning, so bear with me as that corrects itself and I can adjust everything later on. The trends are looking like as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3952 Uptrend (12/08/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3965 Uptrend (12/08/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3980 Uptrend (12/09/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3945 Downtrend (12/06/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low We are currently getting a 3 hour trend signal, and there is SOME possibility that we go up further to get a 4hr uptrend signal, but overall most of the trends have been showing lower lows, and that would make the 4 hour the last potential upward swing to this trend before we head lower. I will likely wait and see how things look before jumping in, but I do see a potential short coming. In terms of economic data; We have PPI today. It will be important because it will be the first November inflationary data point we have. While CPI and PCE are better indicators, they will come later on so I expect this reading to be looked at closely to try and garner insight into what those readings will be and ultimately how the FOMC will have to move on rates. My sentiment into today is as follows; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading and remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Possible for some more minor upside before more downsideSo while we ended lower, I still would see yesterday's price action as a technical rally. While I wasn't feeling well and decided to take the rest of the day off after I made a good trade for $1500, had I stayed in I would have continuously bought in around the mid 20's to anything lower (again my entry point is usually based on a 3200 tick chart) and then sold out if things began to turn around on me yet again, just to rinse and repeat. I certainly wish I'd had my trading up around 20:00 EST, because that dip below 20 was without a doubt another great entry point. While I certainly think we could go higher here, I don't know that I want to go Long with us being here at the 3950 level. I also don't think I want to short here because there isn't a good chance we head back lower just yet. So here we are again... at choosing patience of profit. Not a huge issue, since I'm sitting at just under $7000 for the week. I could go back and do some scalping potentially, but otherwise I think I'll stay out. If you want the trends outside of the video, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3952 Uptrend (12/08/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3945 Downtrend (12/06/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Only the 30m changed to an uptrend since yesterday. So there is not a lot of changes there. Economic Data; We have job numbers out today. Should be important. It comes out in about 15 minutes. Overall today my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bullish Short Term - Neutral/Bullish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish/Neutral I always like to overall commit on a direction for the day, so I think ultimately we end higher today, but perhaps only higher from the close of yesterday (which we are already above). Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
2
Even most Downtrends call for a technical bounceSo I am long here again at 3918, and I'd like to see us at least run back up to 3990 to revisit the lower end of the funnel before we make the major move I was expecting downward. I don't expect a major move upward today, but possibly just a move back to zero, which would net me slightly below $1500. In spite of going against the flow yesterday, I sniped my entry points fairly well, and while I got stopped out on all of them, each one netted me between $50-$200, for a grand total of $700. Not bad considering I was going against the flow and was clearly at risk of going negative. I actually had even gotten into one last night at 3945 because of how certain I am we see some upward movement yesterday evening, but when things weren't fizzling and I didn't want to stress about the trade overnight I just hopped out at 3950. With the inclusion of the 6hr trend, we are currently holding these trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4060 Downtrend (12/01/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3945 Downtrend (12/06/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The 12hr is currently signaling though down here around 3923 (in the video it was there, when I just glanced it is gone here at 3924. We would have to maintain this downward movement until 13:00 EST to hold this downtrend signal, and I still think at least in the short term we run up and collect some of the trends we left behind as lower highs (30m/2hr/4hr). Economic Data; NonFarm Productivity may have SOME impact, but overall I don't see today's data causing a huge shift in positions. My sentiment going into today is as follows; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends continue a mixed signal; Patience and Caution is bestSo after just being completely spot on yesterday with calling the mispricing of Economic Data, I am sitting here looking at this market and feeling very mixed in my sentiment for today. We have a new higher low 3 hour trendline (which I drew in for today at least) and a lower low 4 hour trendline. It matches what we had the other day with the mixed 1hr/2hr trendlines, however this time I don't know of any missing Economic Data that needs to be priced in correctly. Ultimately, I could see us bouncing between 4005ish (the middle of the 4hr and 3hr) and 4025ish (the middle of the 1hr and 2hr), however I'm not confident enough in that to go into a Long at this point. As I mention in the video, being that I am over $4500 up for the week already just on Tuesday, gives me an advantage that maybe I just sit out today and let the Market paint a better picture. I go over in detail the two major price trend lines (not timeline trendlines) of all the highs and all the lows coming together, and without a doubt we are converging into the Apex of a triangle price action. I'd suggest you do some research on triangles in the market, as it is a fascinating topic of study. Realize, a triangle does NOT predict price DIRECTION (Up or Down), but only that there is a pending major price action MOVEMENT coming, as the psychological price points of "I think the market should go lower from here" and "I think the market should go higher from here" collide. Anyways, a bit of a ramble I suppose there, and if you were looking to skip all this, here are the trends going into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4060 Downtrend (12/01/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low For Economic Data; It is just the Trades Balance today of Imports vs Exports. I don't foresee this having a major impact on prices today. Earnings; I won't mention it all week, but just FYI, Broadcom and Costco are both AMC on Thursday. They hold a decent weight and could cause some after-market trading going into Friday and more volatility during Thursday's trading hours. Overall, my sentiment is as follows; Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Hmmmmmmmmmmm Bullish/Neutral (Maybe back up close to 4100? Not sure) Long Term - Bearish (but maybe not a new low) I know, not a lot of that helps for your trading today, but I don't have a solid commitment to how I see the market going today. I'm going to mark it as a Long, only because I think we go up to 4025 today overall, not sure we stay there though. If you do trade, as always, remember your risk management plan and trade safely. Aim small, miss small. Be a Market Sniper.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends beginning to show mixed signals and the weakening rallySo the downward movement I had predicted came, though not quite how I expected it. I ended up staying out all day Friday as I felt the downward movement was too aggressive to quick, even though it is where I think we should have gone, and then ultimately I felt that the rally that came after was illogical based on the economic data. Certainly I think the trends called for those movements, but not with enough predictability to get involved. I did however wait until the open on Sunday evening and got back into a short position at 4073, and will hold it until at least we hit around 4020 or below and evaluate where we might be going at that point. Overall the trends look as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4060 Downtrend (12/01/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 4082 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 4093 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 6Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I wouldn't be surprised if with a few ups and downs, we are headed into gathering a new Daily Downtrend signal at this point. It may not be until next week (and if it doesn't happen then, perhaps not until next year as most traders take the holidays off), but I do think it is coming. This does not mean I think we hit new lows at this time, just that price action finds a bottom in this movement. Overall, this is reflected in the 1hr beginning to show that weakening in trends with a lower low signal, even if it is against the 2hr higher low that signaled at the same spot. I do think that things are a bit mixed at this moment, and that there could be some more direction within the next couple of days that helps discover if we make this movement this month or next. Economic Data; Nothing major from my perspective today. Non-Manufacturing ISM is today, otherwise there is very little. I could see the aggressive rhetoric in California take a toll against oil stocks as they attempt to pass a "punish profit" law. The comedy in Gavin Newsom blaming oil companies for having the highest gas prices in the country is not lost on me, as California holds a significant lead in how much they tax and add in fees on gasoline to get themselves there. I guess it is alright if they steal money from everyone, but how dare someone else join in? Anyways.... My overall sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Mmmmm... Neutral/with a hint of Bearish Long Term - Bearish As always, remember your risk management plan and trade safely
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader