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Es1

Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P and RussellHow to use related markets to complement each other? Definitely you can apply this technique to other related markets. In this tutorial, I am seeing Nasdaq as a leading indicator for the rest may likely to follow. i) Nasdaq bear trend was nicely formed, but not yet for the Dow Jones, S&P and Russell. ii) Nasdaq in the short-term has also a confirmation for a rebound, and I believe the rest of the indices likely to follow subsequently. Discussion: • Drawing primary and secondary trendline • Nasdaq has broken above, the rest should catch-up, why? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Feel free to leave any comments below, I love to exchange ideas with you.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by konhow
18
Reviewing Trends and their behavior during RecessionsWhile retiring after some decent gains during this whipsaw day, I thought I'd go over utilizing the Weekly trend indicator, and how that ended up during a recession vs the occasional downtrend signal. To recap the video if you don't feel like listening, the ONLY time a Weekly Downtrend Signal has occurred, and that index prices were lower when the Weekly Uptrend Signal occurred, is during the recessions. Even during the beginning of Covid, the Weekly Downtrend Signal hit at 2983, but the rapid rise back up and the calculation of trends would have signaled the Weekly Uptrend at 3276. An overall boost in the economy from here for the rest of the year would make this nothing more than a downturn. That doesn't really add up when looking at the overall state of the economy, at least not from my perspective. Many factors are worse than the last recession (Literally called the "Great Recession" because of how rough it was), and the next few months in terms of inflation falling without unemployment rising above 5% could be real factors to watch.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
7/7/2022 In Review; Mistakes Made, Double Tops, and Bear TrapsJust reviewing today. I'll post a better analysis tomorrow morning when I see what the market does overnight. That being said, I mention how I slightly deviated from my risk management plan and stuck out a trade late in the day today (short 3893) past what I normally would. It appears I'll be able to remedy the mistake or at least correct it for a small loss instead of a larger one, but I can absolutely say that was uncharacteristic of me and I feel like I traded today in some fashion like I did when I started trading years ago. However, it is always a good reminder when you get frustrated or start trading off of "feelings" and not your trading strategy, that you should walk away. I then explain how the consistent fluctuation of the longer timeframe trends is abnormal, and that I reviewed when the last time I'd had the 4-Hour and 6-Hour trends reverse this often. The answer is a VERY classic double top that occurred during the first half of February. Of the 16 6-Hour Trend signals I've gotten all year, 3 of them have been in the past few days. Likewise, there has only been 22 4-Hour Trend Indicators in the entire year, and 3 of those have also been in the last few days. Lastly I show have you can use indicators, such as RSI or MFI, to spot Bear Traps by seeing Bearish Divergence, if you're interested. It shows how you can get faked out by an uptrend that might actually be a bear trap that will send you lower. Extremely low volume, classic bearish market patterns, price rally with overall bad economic news... My sentiment, you guessed it, continues to be bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Triangular Apex TheorySo, some boredom just watching the market develop any short-term direction, and was messaging with a few other traders. Had a few people ask me for a more in-depth explanation on the whole triangle apex theory thing. I run through the last triangle we were in, and this current one, and break down the math involved in using them. I'd say they tend to be over 80% correct, and usually when they don't work out, I find that it was my own error. I again, don't trade off of these. I trade off of trends, but like any indicator, I use them to assist in my trading. So, feel free to just look at it as another tool in your toolbox that you can use as a guide in your own trading strategy. Disclaimer - This is not Official Financial or Investment Advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Has The Environment Changed in Crude Oil & E-mini S&P 500?Market Environment is key to any strategy. If we're in a bear market and the environment shifts to a sideways market (like I think we're seeing temporarily happening right now in the E-mini S&P 500 ES1!, then you have to adjust how you execute your strategy. If we're in a bull market and the market environment shifts to short term bearish or sideways like I believe we are seeing in Crude Oil CL1! and Treasuries 10Y! then you have to adjust how you execute your strategy. Remember it's not just about building a strategy, it's about becoming a great executor of your strategy. Getting better at position sizing in changing environments. In this video today I go over what I'm seeing in the market environment in ES1! NQ1! 10y1! and CL1! Derivatives trading is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by anthonycrudele
13
Trends, Triangles, and a Pending Price BattleTrends had some minor changes from the overnight movement. I explained that there is an upcoming Bull / Bear Battleground taking shape. Price is coming under pressure and ultimately something is going to give. I still give a 60/40 bearish sentiment, but again, I trade off of the mathematical equation of trends, and NOT off my opinion. Today I go over the trends and then I explain Right Angle Triangles and show to two major converging triangles (or perhaps one of them is a false triangle and doesn't exist?!?!) or, on a more fundamental level, the psychological aspect of human behavior in the market place and two price directions meeting together. In reviewing my own video, just to put some clarification... usually I feel the price has to move into an Apex. If the downsloping triangle wins this price action, I see the price movement going to at least the previous lows, although that could stay the base of that triangle and it doesn't HAVE to go even lower. It is possible that upsloping triangle is a false triangle and is just being spotted because it is part of the downsloping triangle. This is why I always caution on using anything to predict the market, you never get to fully know what was real, and what wasn't, until after the fact. Hope you enjoy! Remember your Risk Management Plan is the most important part of your trading strategy. If you've been finding my assessments helpful, it would be great to hear some feedback in any way. I enjoy doing these because it makes me really pay attention early in the day so I don't get sloppy in my analysis as I go into my trading day. As always, this is not official financial or investment advice, and all liability is on you for your investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
ES1!7.5.22 ES1! I think it is very important to look at larger time frames in a market that made a huge gain with one of the longest bull runs in history...And is likely to make a commensurate huge move lower. The challenge is to find clues on how the market will do this. I realize my presentation will be a little more complicated than many traders would like to see. You will have to decide for yourself. Without going into too much here, I believe there was a reversal pattern for a short trade last night. The problem was that the market could reverse right where it is now, although I believe it should go lower because there's not a lot of support if the market starts moving lower. That would give us the $2,000 profit, and honestly, if I was taking this trade, I would take the profit. However, but had two contracts, I take one keep my stop for the other contract, and trade it somewhere towards the bottom of the range box for another couple thousand dollars, and I would be willing to modify my decision depending on how it moves lower. I need to see the price action, or I have my stop and a target so that I don't have to watch it all morning. Trading is so personal I don't think it's easy define the pathway dial for every Trader. That is up to you. My main purpose in my own analysis and trading of the market is that I can find a great trade location, with a small, atypical Stop and a reasonable reward...and that it happens often enough that I am likely to be profitable as a trader. The monthly chart should be helpful for you if you remember to look at it from time to time.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin
Trends, Economics, and why we will get to 3500ishReal quick, I didn't want to record the whole thing again, but I skipped part of the math equation because I was doing it in my head so I thought I'd explain the math on why 3500ish... Top 4805, Bottom from pandemic lows 2175 4805 - 2175 = 2630 2630 / 2 = 1315 (the part I forgot to explain on how I got around 1300) 2175 + 1315 = 3510 Once we bottom at 3510ish, I think the market might settle down. As stated, I don't see us expanding back up to 4805 this year, or anywhere close to that. I think the economy, and the market with it, deals with the recession next year, and we work our way out of the trough. We then get a period of a few years of expansion, and make our way back up to 4805 properly. But... what do I know? Haha. Just explaining why we are where we are, where we are going, and why I think we will be taking such a route to get there. Hope you enjoyed the video! As always, your risk management plan is the greatest part of your trading plan! This is not official financial or investment advice. All liability for trading falls on the investor.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends Going into Next Week and Breakdown of Trades done TodayMuch of the same trendlines. The 6-Hour Downtrend has shown it is a clear reversal signal at this point. So I'd just keep taking profit on downward movements to 3770 from the 3832-3815 range. I explain I wouldn't really be bounce trading these, like I did between the previous 6-Hour Uptrend of 3892 and 12-Hour Uptrend Reversal Signal of 3927. The reason is because behind that 12-Hour reversal signal is the Daily and Weekly Downtrends. Supporting an upward movement below the 6-Hour Downtrend Reversal Signal is... nothing. This is why in spite of some upward movement at the end of the day, I am still slightly more bearish in my opinion, although as I explain in the video, I'm more or less 60/40 in my split, so I'm relatively neutral at this point. While the US Market is closed on the 4th of July, Futures are a globally traded commodity, so they will likely have some movement during the off day. I believe they close at 13:00 EST though. I may watch briefly in the morning, but otherwise I have plans. There are some Fed Meeting Minutes to be posted on Wednesday at 14:00 EST. So, I'd expect some potential volatility that day. It shouldn't be anything new though, as it is just the in-depth meeting minutes of the earlier announcement from 2 weeks ago. Thursday at 08:30 EST of next week is the Jobless Claim and Friday 08:30 EST the unemployment rate comes out, that's probably the most important data coming out in terms of major economic news that would affect the S&P next week. Jerome Powell has repeatedly said he wants the labor force to cool and basically unemployment to go up so that wage growth can simmer down, so look for those numbers to have an impact. Lastly, in looking through the news of the day, I'm a bit surprised to see that overall gain, as a majority of major investment companies all cut their expectations for GDP growth this year today. The reduction in GDP with a higher unemployment and high inflation is what causes recessions. Trade Safely, and remember the most important part of your trading strategy is to stick to your Risk Management Plan. As always, this is not official financial or investment advice, all liability in trading the market rests solely on yourself. Best of luck next week, enjoy the Holiday weekend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader