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Here's Why We're Probably Already in a RecessionHi everyone! 👋 This is my first ever video on TradingView . In this video, I explain how a deep dive into the continuing U.S. jobless claims (USCJC) could reveal that a recession is actually already underway. Later in the video, I explain my thoughts about the future direction of the market and why I believe we're entering into a period of stagflation . In this video, I also explain how you can use several tools on TradingView including the Polyline tool, and the Export Data tool (which is accessible by Pro+ and Premium subscribers). Let me know if you find this video to be helpful! Leave a comment below with ideas about what you'd like me to discuss in the future!
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
68
Trends maxing out to the upside; Prepare for potential downsideSo we got that 12hr uptrend signal we wanted. Nearly every trend signal is in an uptrend now, except the Daily. I've discussed the importance of this Daily uptrend signal hitting for some time now as it will be the first higher high in nearly a year. That being said, if it comes, I expect some choppy initial reversing action to come with it as trends will be maxed to the uptrends. The trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3919 Uptrend (1/10/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 3930 Uptrend (1/10/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 3948 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3913 Uptrend (1/6/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Initial price action today will be on Economic Data. Today we have CPI data regarding inflation, and weekly job data. If it comes in as expected or better, I expect the market to spike. However, my concern is that if that does spike, the upward momentum may be short lived and ultimately we will come back down. I may end up sitting out the day and trading a short going into tomorrow at the close of today if the whole day holds upward momentum, especially if that momentum is enough to get a Daily Uptrend signal. If the Daily uptrend signal happens, and we max out our trends, prepare for the Trends to prove themselves true once again, and show how we can't go upward without some additional downtrend movements to allow us new uptrends. So, overall my sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
5
Can the 12hr trend hold until 13:00 EST?So the video explains it better, but ultimately I'm looking to see if we can get another 12hr uptrend signal here and see if it can hold again into that 13:00 EST closing bar on a 12hr chart. If/When that happens, I'll be watching price action to see if I want to cash out on my trade (Long 3920) or hold on to see if we can get a bit higher and even potentially hit that Uptrend Daily mark. I discuss the importance of the Daily Uptrend hitting up here and not having the market swing exponentially lower in the video as well. The trends for the day going in are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3919 Uptrend (1/10/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 3930 Uptrend (1/10/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 3948 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3913 Uptrend (1/6/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data - Nothing much today. All eyes will be on CPI tomorrow. Earnings - None today, Earnings season begins Friday. My sentiment is as follows; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading and remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends and Momentum show more potential upside before a downsideOn Friday I went Long at 3900 after waiting to see if we'd break that price range we'd been stuck in. I'm still currently sitting there, and overall looking to see if the market can finish with that movement I expected us to have going up to 3950-4000. We already this morning came within 6 points of the lower end of that level. We've managed to break the last several lower high uptrend signals we'd been battling on, and the next one we are shooting for is the 12hr uptrend. Once that hits, I may sit out to see if we manage to make a few more highs to a Daily uptrend, or if we fail around that 12hr uptrend mark. As I bring up in the video, if we get an Uptrend on the Daily here without falling back down, it will be the first higher high uptrend on the Daily we've seen in nearly a year. While I expect some pullback from there if it happens, it puts me in full neutral territory, as the Daily will have a higher high uptrend and a lower low downtrend. For Economic Data; Really nothing today. Any price action will likely be left over momentum from Friday. Powell speaks tomorrow and we have CPI on Thursday, those are likely to be the major factors this week. Earnings; Several financial earnings this week on the 13th, as we begin earnings season here for the 4th quarter of 2022. Thus far Earnings seasons have been a really positive mood overall for stocks and caused a rally, even during the stock drop of last year. My sentiment for today is basically the same as it has been for over a week. Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
What the Future Holds for the S&P 500 in 2023 ES1!I have been trading the E-mini S&P 500 since 1998 so I have traded through several Bear Markets and there is a theme to them and how they end. In this video I go over the bear markets in the Dot Com Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis and compare them to this recent Bear Market. I share how I use a weekly chart with a 52 week moving average and an RSI to determine how a bear market will end. I explain why the first trading day and first trading week of the year are the most important days of the year and why traders should use TradingViews auto anchored vwap on the first day of the year to guide you for market direction throughout the rest of the trading year. This is not Financial Advice. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. Derivatives trading is not suitable for all investors.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by anthonycrudele
35
S&P Stuck in 3800-3900 zone; Patience is keyTrends still have us seeing some upside, but overall more downside, and price action reflects this in our price zone here. I still ultimately see us moving higher to around 3950-4000 before we have the ability make a major wave downward, however, as I stated yesterday, I'm not convinced enough in that movement or that we just head lower now to get involved in either move at this time. We have been in this 100 point range for 3 weeks now. Perhaps the JOLTs Job Data or the FOMC Minutes can purge us from this cursed land, but I really think the major data point for the week is going to be on Friday with Payroll and Unemployment data. To me, this area is all about patience unless you are trying to scalp for smaller moves. As I mention in the video, on a Daily Timeframe, the Nasdaq is nearly oversold and the Dow Jones is nearly overbought, so this is just areas of the market beginning to battle it out and the reality is that money is basically just being taken out of one pocket and put into another pocket, otherwise known as consolidation. Are we consolidated the recent downward movement before we head lower, or are we consolidating the overall movement up before we try to head higher? That is the question I think will get answered over time and I'm not jumping the gun on trying to foresee now, especially given the mixture of trends currently. I think the overall trend tone is that we head lower, but I just want to see a clearer picture of how we are getting there if that is the case. I could see the 2hr being a funnel in sending us there as the last 4 downtrend signals have more or less been directly in line with each other, but again, I also see some trends looking for a more significant timeline like the 6hr or 12hr to really lead the way if we are going to get ourselves back towards 3600. Anyways, enough of the ramble, Economic Data today; ISM info at 10:00 EST JOLTs Job Data at 10:00 EST FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 EST All should cause some movement. My sentiment remains unchanged, though not confident enough to get involved with; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Looks like it might be another day of watching and waiting for me. Safe trading to you all!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
SPX review for Jan 3 - Bear Market RulesA false brake out started the day. We are still under the 18ma on the daily and weekly charts. For me, the next target should be the lower daily BB around 3750. We are embedded bearish on the slow stochastic so the idea that we can grind down hard into later January or early February is certainly possible. I also share some ideas on bear market rules which is good to consider in general as we are probably going to be in an extended one with little bull markets here and there.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by the_sunship
3
Trends beginning to show a movement to the upsideSo as I explain in the video, the 30m/1hr/2hr are all showing potential for more movement upward. They are in defiance of a 4hr lower high downtrend that we've pushed past, and have even now pushed above a 6hr and 12hr lower high downtrend as well. That puts me in a short term bullish stance unless we begin to fall back below the 6hr and 12hr lines in which I'd falter over to neutral. I don't know that I foresee a major movement day today, so I intend to likely just sort of watch and wait for now so I can feel like I'm back into the swing of things going into this year. The trends at this moment are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3875 Downtrend (1/03/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3881 Uptrend (1/03/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 3906 Uptrend (1/03/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low Daily - 3810 Uptrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Nothing major in the Economic Data today other than PMI. I think we get more guidance by data tomorrow with some jobs data. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral/Bearish To believe we are heading further down I want to either see the shorter duration trends show a downtrend or that we get below that Daily downtrend mark that closed around 3810. Safe Trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
1
LIGHT BULB will eventually CLICK ES/SPX/SPYTrade Plan this Week Pivot is 3875. Big levels above are 3915 / 3960 / 3990 / 4000 / 4050. Big levels below are 3832 / 3800 / 3777 / 3750 / 3712. Market Structure Short Term Trend. Spooz remains in a downtrend until we can get back above that 3915, which would be the first goal for bulls as it would put them back in firm control. The Profiles. What the market has been communicating to us this past week is profit taking by shorts producing a relief bounce. We know this from the shape of the daily volume/market profile(s), as there were a few P-shaped profiles. Additionally, a pattern that has been developing has been poor lows, a sign of sellers selling into the hole without getting paid and effectively getting trapped, causing reversals. As is typically the case with short covering bounces, they get sold eventually. However, we need to remain nimble and aware that price can continue to move higher as long as there are new buyers. 3875 was a pretty key level last week, it has stalled the auction a few times, and I think there may be further pain for shorts as long as we remain above it. This will be our pivot this week. 3920 has unfinished auction, and downside was limited below 3800. Given our pivot is 3875, bulls want above, bears want below. Above 3875 and I will be long biased, targeting 3894 and 3915. Breaking above and holding 3915 would be best case scenario for bulls, targeting 3960 and 3990 / 4000. Holding below 3875 would indicate weakness IMO, and targets in this case are 3832 and 3800. Break and hold below 3800 will target our 3777 and 3750 levels. Inside Day. For Tuesday, we have an inside day set up which we want to be on the lookout for. The HOD was 3872, thus breaking above and holding we want to be bullish playing with further squeezing of shorts. The LOD being 3822, breaking below and holding we want to be bearish playing with the inside day break to the downside. Trade Plan Tuesday Pivot is 3875. Bulls targeting 3894. Break and hold above targets 3915 / 3937 / 3950. Bears targeting 3855. Break and hold below targets 3832 / 3818 / 3800. Stay Frosty!
SP:SPX
by Beyond_Charts
Daily Bitcoin Update - general overview of the days tradingEvening all, Full TA in the video as usual. Some notes: Remember to hit the BOOST - Volatility Thursday - Initial jobless claims and GDP price index were announced and showed a strengthening economy which is not what the FED want. The rate hikes are aimed to weaken the economy. - A strengthening economy could lead the FED to be more Hawkish - The SPX, ES1 and Nasdaq reacted accordingly moving lower - Bitcoin moved lower at the same time - Throughout the day we were monitoring the Inverse Head and Shoulders on the 4hr TF looking for the right shoulder Higher Low which was printed on Binance but not on BTC/USD so it pays to look at both charts - Bitcoin now is in the same position once again and needs to break above $16910 and flip this into support to move higher. - Bitcoin is currently facing the resistance of the upper trendline of the falling wedge on the right shoulder, there is fib resistance at 16867 and also the main resistance at 16910. - With everything shutting down for Christmas are the buyers there to push this price higher? Volume is required and although there is volume at the moment will there be enough to break 16910. - We also have more news tomorrow with the PCE price index . A higher-than-expected reading could lead the FED to be more Hawkish. Should this be the case the markets may well start pricing this in. Right now we ask ourselves 1. What is the strategy if Bitcoin get's rejected again by 16910? 2. What is the strategy if Bitcoin breaks higher and holds 16910? 3. What is our overall market sentiment and do our strategies fit with it? Thanks for taking the time to watch the video. Be patient and stick to your strategy! Please hit the boost button if you like this update. Back tomorrow. Thanks SIMON BPOI
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BPOI
3
Missed my own call downward; However back in to a long positionSo about a week ago I had said that trends would take us likely to 3800. The level of frustration I had with myself when I realized we hit our final plummet (Thanks Bank of Japan) to 3800 and I missed 2/3 of that movement down was undeniable. However, as I had discussed a week ago, I felt that would be a potential bottom for us and that we could see this rally try to push higher from there. I used my entry point for when we crossed back above the lower high Daily trend mark seen in the video, which ended up around 3822. While we did NOT get a Daily downtrend mark, it signaled there, and so I decided that even if we ran flat as we passed back above the uptrend and I briefly had to hold a negative trade, all trends would be maxed to the downside and the following day would begin a rally. So far this prediction has held and I'm in a great position to see us head more to the upside, with a target goal of around 3950-4000 that I don't foresee us hitting until around the first week of January. All that said, that means this will most likely be my final video as I trade because I want the flexibility of my schedule to be how I want, and I want to take time off to spend with my family and away from the market. I'll likely check in, and might toss a comment on here occasionally, but otherwise with my daughter home from the military even Friday with PCE I have plans and will not really be around much. So as my likely final post of the trends, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3847 Uptrend (12/20/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3864 Uptrend (12/21/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 4008 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3946 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3978 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 6Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I believe we have had been underneath the higher low of the weekly, that our next rally will see us get a weekly uptrend, which will most likely see us hit around the same 4300 mark we broke to head down. From there, I dunno, perhaps we see new lows. While a 25-30% reduction in market value is below normal recessions (most are around 50% as I've previously shown), we also have never had so much to lose, and no recession had over 1000 points lost either. So is it the % that is important, or the amount of valuation? That is for us all to decide, when (not really if) we finally acknowledge an economic recession and begin a new economic cycle. As I said in the video, in terms of market data; Today (Wednesday) - Consumer Confidence Tomorrow (Thursday) - Job Data and GDP Friday - PCE My sentiment into this; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral (really depends on how this next rally looks once we get above 4000). Additionally, I may no longer be able to discuss DailyFX sentiment (which is never a tell all anyways) as in spite of all the analysts they have being US Traders, they have some bizarre message I just saw today that the website is not for US Residents (very bizarre). Safe Trading, Happy Holidays if celebrated, and wishing all an amazing New Years.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
2