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Trends in conflict; FOMC Rate Decision... Suggest PatienceSo with the close of yesterday, we have the 30m/1hr downtrends being higher lows and being violated significantly. We then got the 2hr/3hr/4hr all as lower lows. The 6hr was in lower low territory for a while, but just before it closed out that bar, we rallied briefly to give us a slight higher low downtrend signal there. So basically, we have the 30m/1hr/6hr vs the 2hr/3hr/4hr. Not something I want to get involved in at this point, so I'll sit out. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4179 Downtrend (5/1/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4167 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4118 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Strong push upward past 4155 could allow us to head higher to 4200 again. The 30m and 1hr uptrends if we get them up here, will both be higher highs, and both could signal us to head higher as well. The Short Position; The volume of yesterday's movement was in the downward momentum. I'll be interested in getting back in if I see a strong push below 4125, which is roughly where the 6hr higher low trendline is currently at as well. Economic Data; We had ADP NonFarm Employment data this morning. It came out 200% surprise to the upside. Yep, DOUBLE the expected data, so that job data shows a strong surprise to the upside. We will still have some PMI and ISM data before this afternoon with the FOMC rate decision. I talked about my opinion on this FOMC rate decision in the video. Earnings; Qualcomm is the big one, otherwise nothing significant. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish, just briefly Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, remember your risk management. I am marking this as a Short today, because I think there is more risk going into the FOMC rate decision to push us lower than take us higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends into 5/2/2023So we spiked up briefly but then got the 30m downtrend yesterday just below where we started. While it is only one trend, and we've managed to keep below the trendline associated with it, the move lessens the promise of an easy and safe entry point at 4185, as the 30m could attempt to move the market up on it's own. I'll most likely put a profit stop now on the trade, or one with minimal loss, depending on how we looked above 4181. Luckily, even if I have to take a small loss, currently my 6E trade has garnered me about HKEX:700 , and I could use that to offset some risk on my main focus of the ES. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4179 Downtrend (5/1/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4107 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4127 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4154 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4158 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4185 Uptrend (4/28/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If you believe the market is set to head higher, this is the likely entry point here, with an exit point at the 30m uptrend which at this point would likely be around 4210ish. The Short Position; 4179 was the support level shown by the 30m downtrend, we have not really allowed it to buoy us yet, so any return to that level could be a potential entry point. That said, If I wasn't already in a Short position, I'd probably be patiently waiting for a good entry point at the risk of losing out on a small leg down over today. Economic Data; JOLTs job data today. I've mixed feelings on how impactful that data really is. Earnings; AMD, Pfizer, and Starbucks are today. AMD especially on any guidance that might show weakness in Tech, and Starbucks to show any weakness in the consumer. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Still just kinda Neutral Overall, I still think that overall many of the S&P companies are hurting, and this rise was on the backs of the Top 10 companies, which are then sitting and excessively high valuation levels. A leg down, even halfway, would show me that some room is being made for more potential growth as investment could better be spread across the S&P 500 and remove some of the bearish sentiment in the market. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
Trends maxed to the upside againSo with the 6hr uptrend hitting on the major upward move that ended the week, we are maxed out on uptrends yet again. I'd expect at least a brief sell off to get a 30m downtrend, in which I'll be able to set a profit stop and go from there. Earnings season never seems to disappoint in that it drives the market up regardless of other macroeconomic conditions that are happening. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4155 Uptrend (4/28/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4107 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4127 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4154 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4158 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4185 Uptrend (4/28/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Again, I think the major issue is we are maxed to the upside. This has always proved to be an area that will drive back down even if briefly for a small gain. The Long Position; Mmmm, I may switch my position if I see a 30m uptrend. If I wasn't in a position at all, I don't know I'd feel comfortable going into anything long from the point we are already at. The Short Position; Currently, anything at or above 4185 would be a short entry based on maxed out trends. That is why I'm short. I'm not telling you what to do, by any means, and all investors know the success or failure of their investment is on them... I'm just telling you I went short at the level we are at for a reason. Economic Data; ISM Manufacturing is today. Looking to see if it stays in a contraction, and if that contraction eases. Keep in mind that FOMC Rate day is Wednesday. Earnings; Nothing major today, just the general smaller large cap S&P companies. Apple is on May 4th, that is the biggest of the week. There are a few other big companies reporting this week, but we are slowly coming to a close on Earnings week (I think there is one more big week). My sentiment overalll; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Mmmm.... let's just go Neutral for now Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends brought in the rally, but positioned to head lower now So I was away from my computer and basically just managed a trade via phone and had no way to make an update for yesterday. My analysis was basically close to the same sentiment I had from Wednesday, which was that we had violated too many trends and were going to see a brief rally. From that rally, we now have several trends that when they went uptrend, are showing lower highs now and could easily then dip down to lower lows and beyond. So I think overall in terms of the market placement, we are set for things to go lower. However, if we go lower will likely depend on PCE data and Personal Income/Spending set to release this morning. While the analysis says to head lower, I've said so many times that nothing destroys any analysis like economic data. Especially after a fairly grim picture from yesterday that showed GDP slowed significantly even though the labor market remains strong. It should be noted that heavy movements in unemployment tend to happen during a recession, not before it begins. Anyways, the trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4137 Downtrend (4/28/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4107 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4127 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4154 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4158 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4118 Downtrend (4/25/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; There is the potential to go back to every dip is a rally point, as yesterday's low volume one sided rally move shows that there is still a lot of Bullish sentiment in the market that we could go higher to 4200 and beyond. Currently I don't think I'd enter into a long trade unless we get above the 4hr, as every downtrend we hit currently will be a lower low. The Short Position; Being that I was away and couldn't bring up my trend algorithm, I believe I missed the short entry point which was 4158. I suppose a strong move down past the 30m downtrend point of 4136 could end up as a late entry, but I might just kick back and watch after a relatively good week. Economic Data; PCE and Personal Income and Spending are today. I expect this to cause major movements at this time, unless it comes in directly on as expected. Earnings; Chevron, which beat earnings but warns of falling oil prices ahead, was the only major company to report today. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Honestly... I'm kinda bullish I think on a long term. I guess we will see if we do end up heading lower, how low it goes, but if it stalls at 3900 and we rally back up, then I think we could easily rally next time to 4300. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
5
Potential sideways /Mini Rally at playSo I cashed out when we struck the 12hr trendline around 4095 yesterday. With the way the trends are looking I think I'm likely to just sit out for today and let the market play itself out. While I was stopped out and lost nearly half of the surge I gathered in the 6E, between the few hundred on that and the money made on the S&P I've more than surpassed my weekly HKEX:2500 goal and don't feel confident enough in either direction to get involved today. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4142 Downtrend (4/24/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4135 Downtrend (4/25/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4118 Downtrend (4/25/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I could see any entry below 4100 grabbing a short move up to 4120ish. However, I don't think either then off the back of Google, that we see a huge push upward today. The Short Position; A strong move below 4090 could take us to 4050. Not sure I want to jump in on this at this point, but it would likely be just enough to gather that 12hr downtrend. Additionally, any major spike rally I see as fading pretty quickly, especially if it has no volume behind it. Economic Data; Durable Goods Orders came in today higher than expected. Not sure how I'd look at trading that, nor does it appear the market is sure either. Earnings; Meta is today, but AMC. I'd mostly just be glancing at the AMC companies from yesterday to make moves, such as Google and Microsoft. My sentiment into today; Neutral across the board... so I think I'm going to just take a nap and take today off. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends beginning to signal some potential support; Earnings AMCSo I'm currently running two shorts, one on the ES! and one on the 6E. I attempted both a Long and Short yesterday, and both were profit stopped for $100, so after only making HKEX:200 yesterday, I waited until the close and then went short on the market into today, ready to bail if the S&P decides to shake off the movement down... again... and rally into the open and throughout the day. The trends definitely are showing the potential for a brief support rally here, with the 2hr/3hr/4hr all violated and wanting to pull the market back up, and the 30m movements that were heading lower now appearing to be calling for price to come back up also. Currently I expect to see a 1hr downtrend, and that lost 6hr downtrend, but will then evaluate if I want to maintain my short position or briefly look for a retracement back up, even if I think ultimately we head down lower. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4142 Downtrend (4/24/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4155 Uptrend (4/24/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If we move lower to a 1hr and/or 6hr downtrend, I really may switch my position briefly if the movement appears to fizzle to a long position, at least to snag a 30m/1hr/2hr uptrend movement. Otherwise, I'm not sure that today I expect us to push back above 4160 and make any new highs from the last couple of days. The Short Position; I'm in my short position already, but if I wasn't, I might look at an entry point around 4155. Additionally, if I decide to bail because of a mid day rally, that may be my re-entry point into a short position. Economic Data; CB Consumer Confidence comes in today. I am interested to see how this comes out along expectations. I may glance at home sales also just to see where the overall feelings of the "American Dream" are going. Earnings; Major players with earnings today. I went over several, but many of the biggest ones are AMC, so I expect a massive move after the US Markets close but before the Future contracts pause that will continue overnight. Geopolitical; It appears that Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again also, and the Sudanese events are likely to cause more instability in the world. Overall, the ESM contract has done nothing but go upward since it was released, and I expect it to release some of the gains it has gathered before it resolves in the beginning of June. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - I'm just going to go with Neutral at the moment. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends heading into the biggest Earnings week of Earnings SeasonMajor earnings are coming in this week, although not today. Coca Cola was the only major company to report today, and they beat earnings expectations by basically acknowledging they just passed price hikes in production to the consumer. With the bigger Earnings of Google and Microsoft tomorrow, then Amazon and Meta later in the week, I expect tomorrow to begin real price action and today to be somewhat slow. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4151 Uptrend (4/24/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4149 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low We seem to be continuing to movement down on the 30m trend for now, any movement back under that trend will be a potential entry point for me. The Long Position; I'm not sure what would cause it, but a strong push up to and past 4160 may be a potential entry point for a Long position, at least to 4180. The Short Position; I'm looking for signs the momentum is getting read to run us down again, likely here around 4150. I will then hold into that short to see if we can break into, and past the 4130 range. Economic Data; Nothing I see as important today. Earnings; As I said, on KO (Coca Cola) today. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral, slight bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - I don't know still... beallish? Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Direction unclear; Patiently waitingSo I did dip out yesterday where I said I would, did not get back into the second wave down, and ended with making my weekly goal of $2500. Looking at today, I feel the market is giving off a lot of indecision, and so I've decided to continue with my sentiment, and will likely just sit out today altogether. The trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4138 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4149 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The major change was the 30m has really increased the descent of the lower low trendline. Otherwise mostly unchanged from yesterday. The Long Position; Any dip continues to be gobbled up and a rally come in by mid day. I could see this continuing. The Short Position; Overall the market appears to be trying to head lower, so any move into positive territory and any mid day rally could be a position to enter short for the next step down. The steps are slow though, so beware. Economic Data; Not much Earnings; PG, but otherwise not anything major. My Sentiment; Enjoy the day off Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends beginning to turn to the downside; I expect moreSo I am yet again short at 4180. I've made my weekly goal at this point, and if things rally again back up to 4160 I'll likely just cash out, take my weekly HKEX:2500 quota, and sit out this week. However, trends are beginning to show that dip backwards, even if currently it is only the lower timeframes of the 30m and 1hr. We got lower highs and lower lows off both. This does however, leave the 2hr, 3hr, and 4hr (just barely and only just recently) violated. I expect to see a 6hr downtrend today, and then likely some potential movement back up around that area. However, if it blows past that point, I'll likely try to ride it down as best as possible. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4159 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4149 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Again, any dip so far has been bought up. I think that mentality is going to weaken as we go, but there is a potential bounce at any moment. A decent entry point could be at a 6hr downtrend mark, or likely around 4120ish. The Short Position; I'm in the short position. If you didn't go short, I'm not sure where I'd feel comfortable in, except MAYBE a 30m uptrend mark, which would probably hit around 4160 or so. Ironically, that is the same area I would take profit and exit... so yeah. The market has lately had a hard time with a downside follow through, so I don't know that I would jump in as a short on a FOMO downslide. Economic Data; We have jobs data today. Should be important, but it has been really mixed in terms of how it has been traded. Earnings; Tesla came in poorly yesterday, and the stock shows that. Many of the major ones today have been mixed, with some beatings earnings but missing revenue, or vice versa. I checked AT&T, and that was the same mixed review there. Geopolitical Issue; I forgot to mention in the video... Janet Yellen is speaking today, the Treasury Secretary. Not sure if she has an angle, or misses the spotlight lately as she really seems to want to push herself into relevancy lately, but she apparently wants to discuss China and National Security and outlining the need to sacrifice economically to safeguard against China's influence. Additionally, it appears that the US dollar may be regaining some of it's strength across the spectrum, except against gold. My sentiment into today is (From 4150ish); Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - ............ Very conflcted here. I don't know. To continue to share potential sell signals... though again realize I'm only trading on the S&P at the moment... /VX is the only buy signal (yes, there is a future contract for the VIX) Sell signals include the /ES (You're here), the /NQ (Nasdaq), Australian/Mexican/Canadian currencies (/6A, /6M, /6C respectively), the /RTY (Russell 2000), and /HG (Copper). Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Potential for corrective action in the market againSo after sitting out yesterday, I am short yet again today at 4180. I am looking for some continued downward movement now that we are developing some downtrends, and then I expect the potential of a brief bounce back up. If this is the end of this rally, basically I want to see a good 60 points drop, a 30 point rebound, and then another move back to meet new lows. That sort of mood will give us lower highs and lower lows on shorter timeframes that will paint the picture of us heading lower. If we get a move lower, to say, the 6hr downtrend and then rally back up here, I believe the market will ultimately head into 4200 territory. The violated 6hr trend needs to be corrected for us to head higher at this point. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4171 Downtrend (4/18/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4170 Downtrend (4/18/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Yet again, if you feel the market is heading higher, than any dip is a buy zone. I MIGHT go long if we get a 6hr downtrend, although at this point I think if my short gets that profitable I will just cash out and call it a week. A move back up above 4180 may also be an area to go Long and expect us to hit 4200 there, though I would like to see a bit more of a brief downward move before that happens. The Short Position; I had said that the peak yesterday was probably a good short, and while I didn't get into it, it appears it was. I went short a little lower at 4180, and I expect the down momentum to not fizzle completely today. I would use caution on jumping into a short at this point though, as shorter timeframes will go into oversold, and especially if the open ends lower, people who incorrectly utilize MFI in a futures market will believe we are oversold on the open and look to drive the price back up. Economic Data; None important today. Earnings; I went over the major ones in the video, but some health companies are up, some are down, banks are mixed, and Tesla and IBM look poised to head lower due to economic headwinds. As many have asked about signals I get... I have a buy signal on ZL (Soybean futures), not that I plan to trade it. I have sell signals on the Euro (6E), the ES (you're here), 6N (New Zealand vs US$), 6M (Mexican Peso vs US$), 6C (Canadian vs US$), and HG (Copper Futures). I don't plan to trade on any of those other areas other than the S&P today though. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - ........ I still don't know... Neutral with a hint of bullish, but I don't "FEEL" the bullish... I "FEEL" Bearish. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Rally continues to fight Macro Economic conditionsSo I ended up jumping out yesterday as the price went up to 4160 for only a 750 gain. I had said my long position was to go in to any appearance that yet another buy the dip mentality surfaced, but I ended up not taking that trade and have no open position at the moment. Heading into today, the issue I see is we are mostly maxed out, yet again, to the uptrends. Following the trendlines, there is some minor room left to the upside on the 4hr and 2hr uptrends, being around 4200 and 4210 respectively. Past those I don't see much in terms of continued upward potential, nor do we have any major economic data to disrupt that. The trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4177 Uptrend (4/17/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4185 Uptrend (4/18/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4174 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4146 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Yet again, any dip is really the Long Position, as this rally continues to defy most analysts (including mine) and every dip is apparently an entry point. The trends have not provided any major guidance on sending us back down just yet without a serious disruption. The Short Position; Honestly, the 4200 level where we are is probably a decent short entry point. However, I've decided to wait and see if we head higher to 4210 and really max out every uptrend potential. The other entry point would be if the typical day can appear in reverse order, with an early rally that fizzles, and then go short as we pass that 4175 level again in hopes of actually heading lower. Economic Data; Nothing important today. Earnings; A handful of important companies, mostly whom all reported BTO and reported as beating expectations. Netflix is the only AMC I noted as being important. I've got sell signals in several currencies vs the US Dollar and also gold... so I may see my trading fall into one of those categories, although the US Dollar has really struggled so far this year to maintain any strength globally. Also, I have a very valid sell signal on the Dow Jones, so I could also dabble over in that section as well since the S&P, which is my usual bread & butter, I think is just acting completely illogical for the moment. My sentiment into today is; Basically all neutral with a hint of bearish on the short side and a hint of bullish on the long side. Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Will the S&P have the first negative Earnings Season?So I am short at 4175, still grasping on to the market losing its footing at this level and falling back towards 4000. Friday's dip though was immediately gobbled up and we ended up at basically break even overall on the day. So we shall see. The trends have allowed us some wiggle room to move upward, although we wouldn't be able to get too much higher before we would be maxed out to the upside again. We are heading into Earnings season, starting with some banking earnings last Friday and now have a few dozen companies reporting this week. The S&P has yet to have a bad earnings season, even during the peak of inflation, as all the dips happened before or after the Earnings season, so the real question is does that optimism and at times misleading data (The Walmart Effect) continue to attract investors to companies that appear to be overpriced? Or do companies warn investors of the potential economic impact of continued inflation, possible stagflation, and the likelihood of a recession and that it might negatively impact things and investors hear that message? Guess we will know in a few weeks. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4159 Downtrend (4/14/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4155 Downtrend (4/14/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4174 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4146 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low There is nothing here that appears it is going to just break through and melt down just yet. The Long Position; So far, any dip has been led by a rally back to at least neutral. With Trends still primed to go higher, I might get behind any rally if we see a major dip today. Additionally, if things get above 4175 I think we could drive up to 4200 or at least the 1hr uptrend (which I think will be around 4200). The Short Position; I'm in it at 4175. If we see a major move that breaks down below 4140 again we might settle in around 4120 for a riskier and less profitable trade. I see any major downswing still coming up, not just because of the buy the dip mentality but also because trends are all in an upward move. Economic Data; Nothing major today. I am heavily interested in the US Dollar attempting to regain some value lately though, as it seems to be spiraling down in most markets over the last couple months. Earnings; Charles Schwab is today. Basically the profits went up in Q1 but the deposits continue to fall in the company, causing some financial concern so the stock is down. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - ..... Neutral with Bullish sprinkled on top Safe trading, and remember that risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
How To Trade A Choppy Tape - Technical Analysis ES1! RTY1! MNQ1Big picture charts always supersede short term charts. Many day traders think that just because they are short term traders they don't need to look at the big picture charts, but in order to be a better executor of your short term strategy you need to understand the context of the current market environment. Should I be smaller and quicker to cover my trades? Should I hold on to this long or this short because we're breaking out on the higher time frame? All of this matters when you're looking to become a better trader. In today's video I go over the context of the current market environment in the ES1!, MNQ1, RTY! and YM1!. I use a 10 day moving average, Auto Anchored VWAPs, and I use a short term chart (3 minute) to explain why I have been using standard deviation lines on to scalp ES1! futures in this choppy tape.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by anthonycrudele
2
Trends maxed to the upside; Close to a Weekly UptrendSo I sat out all of the last two days. I wanted to see some of this rally falter, it did, but then I decided I would wait another day to see how the market reacted, and we end up skyrocketing on low volume yet again. The movement up did give us a Daily Uptrend on the ESM contract, instead of just the ES! overlay. I decided to mark that location since so far the ESM seems to be on it's own program. I'm in a Short at 4175 at the moment, I don't know that I'll hold it too long. Even since making the video it has caused my trade to go from a small profit gain to a small profit loss. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4133 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4147 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4174 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4146 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Really seems to be tremendous amounts of optimism in the market lately, and while the uptrend supports some of this movement, it would also call for at least a brief dip lower for a moment to catch it's breath. A weekly uptrend is likely close at hand here, so there is some room left to head upward I think. The Long Position; Any dip seems to be a Long position. Feeling that at least in the short term we are maxed out to the upside, I will likely stay out of Long positions, but the market doesn't seem to want to put any brakes on these upward movements. The Short Position; In terms of trends, when they max out they have difficulty continuing. We are maxed out to the upside, so I am looking for some movement, if nothing less at least a 30m downtrend, and will try to catch that move. Economic Data; Retail sales today, nothing else significant. Earnings; The narrative is that banks are in trouble. The reality is that they just posted massive Earnings as the first to post Earnings for Q1. My sentiment... Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - ......... Bullish? Almost Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Dow Jones Index (US30): The Market Will Go Higher 📈 On a today's live stream, we discussed Dow Jones Index. We spotted an inside bar formation, being formed on a key daily structure resistance and a confirmed bullish violation of the upper boundary of the range of the mother's bar. It is a very important bullish clue. Probabilities will be high that the Index will keep growing. The next goal for buyers will be 34175. ❤️Please, support this video with like and comment!❤️
ULong
by VasilyTrader
7
Trends still showing potential down move; CPI Data to guide usSo I cashed out my Long yesterday at 4150. Took it as a bonus that I made my weekly goal already. Due to that, I will be sitting out going into the CPI data. Volume remains ultra low, prices remain fairly stagnant, and trends still seem to be maxed out at least calling for some downward movement. I'm attempting to remain open minded to a long position, even though I don't see the macroeconomic conditions to support any such movement at all. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4144 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4131 Uptrend (4/10/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4140 Uptrend (4/10/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; A strong move up off CPI data that sends us into new highs past yesterday might be the time to hop in. I'm skeptical, but open minded to a move up 4160 going to 4200. The Short Position; Still looking for momentum below 4130, to head to 4100, and ultimately back down to a 6hr downtrend at least, which will be higher now and likely 4090ish. Will have to see what happens from there. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Looking for yet another drop; Trends into 4/11/2023So, while I'm actually Long at the moment from 4120, I still see the market heading south here shortly. I think the lack of volume has caused a delay in the corrective action I'm looking for. I took the Long based on my "Long Position" from yesterday, where I reversed my short into a Long to see if I can skim off the top. I still have numerous indicators and analysis all saying that the overall market is all entering into a downtrend. As I feel things are going short, I'm basically just preparing to switch my position to the downside once I see momentum pick up again, perhaps this time with some volume. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4126 Uptrend (4/10/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4137 Uptrend (4/10/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4137 Uptrend (4/10/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low You can see the 30m/1hr/2hr all flipped yet again, with the 30m/2hr giving a just ever so slightly higher high, and the 1hr having a strong lower high. The Long Position; While I have little faith this market manages to get higher, I'm at least open minded to it. The candle of yesterday is a bullish candle at least, so there is that. If prices push up past 4150, than I'd expect us to look back at the highs we saw briefly before at 4170ish. The Short Position; I'll strongly consider switch my position either as we pass 0 (4136) or might just wait until we hit that 4130 level. It is possible we get very little yet again today and then a major move tomorrow based on CPI. Economic Data; There isn't much today. Earnings; Not until Friday My Sentiment for today is an overall holding pattern; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader