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⚠️ 🔥 Systemic Risks Alert & the 3 De-couplingsThis is long 20 min video. I think i reached the limit as i didn't manage to finish the recording but you will get the point. You better get the point or you might run deadly risks going Long or Short.... I am going to start with the 3 de-couplings: 1. China-US Decoupling 2. Banks - Crypto decoupling 3. Crypto-Indices decoupling I cover all 3 in the video plus i offer my insights on how to approach the trading part (hedge mode is ON). Potential Systemic Risk events: 1. Banks.. not looking good, it's quiet now but willit be under control? 2. Attack on the petrodollar. Will US lose the superpower status? Ask Saudi Arabia 3. War. Will it stay just in Ukraine? Combine it with (2) and it could be bad. Links: thediplomat.com www.middleeastmonitor.com news.sky.com tvpworld.com goldswitzerland.com Allow me to be worried..or if you don't agree with me you might want to agree with Ernest Hemingway: “the first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war” www.forbes.com Stay cool, this is just history in the making. The FXPROFESSOR (Bitcoin sounds like the best option)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by FX_Professor
2
S&P possible sell signal, but trends are mixedSo I hope you enjoyed the calm. I ended up taking my ball and playing elsewhere. I had said I had a strong sell signal on the Nasdaq going into yesterday, and so even when we were up on the day, I went short, and made my entire weekly goal on the Nasdaq. Additionally, I have that Soybean trade from last week I had talked about, and that is up 40 points for another $2000. I bring that up because at $4500 for the week, I have the option to stay out of the S&P ES! contracts for now, and may just do that. We had no new trends form yesterday (yeah, that is how calm it was). We did end on a higher note, but clear had strong resistance trying to go higher and a push down at the end of the day. While we tried to go higher after the close, we then attempted to go lower this morning, and are basically back at break even. The 30m calls for us to go up, but has been violated. The 1hr says we should come down. The 2hr says we can go sideways, the 3/4/6hr say we should be going down, the 12hr says we should go up, and the daily says we are within range and can stay sideways. So yeah... a bit of a mixed bag at the moment. I have a MACD Momentum sell signal appearing TODAY, but keep in mind, that is the current bar and NOT finished. So I won't be trading off of that. All in all, I may sit out for the day. Trends into today (same as yesterday); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4003 Downtrend (3/27/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4002 Uptrend (3/24/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/24/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I mean, I suppose if we get back above that 30m ascending downtrend bar (currently at 4026) I could see some room to the upside. Not sure I'd take that trade though. The Short Position; A good move below 4003 might be an entry point, with stops for profit set if it goes below 4000 at 4002 in the event it fails. If I tried, this is the more likely trade I'll take. Economic Data; CB Consumer Confidence is really the only big deal today. Otherwise I don't expect much, and I'm not sure I expect a lot out of that. My sentiment into today (from 4007); Shorter Term - Neutral/Hint of Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral Yeah, I'm basically neutral on the day. I THINK we might go lower, but I don't know that I have enough to want to take that trade. It is mostly based on where I think the macro economics of the current environment is at, but the market seems to be on a different page than I, because I think given the current conditions and valuations (currently sitting at around 18-20x valuations) we should be around 3850 at the moment. Things are just too expensive given the possible impact on future earnings. Given that, I'm going to mark this as a "Short" idea, although, again I'm about as neutral as I get going into today. But hey, what do I know =) Safe trading! And remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Continue into range bound territory; Enjoy the calmSo being how Friday ended I am not surprised we've seen some premarket momentum to carry that forward. I don't know that I see us exploding higher as the market opens today, but I wouldn't be surprised if we reach 4040 or so. I'm more expecting us to have a move back down towards 4000 shortly after the open, though I do expect today to be mostly a calm day with not a lot going on in the market. If we hadn't shot up in premarket, I'd likely say I thought we would push upwards, but we are already here. Overall the only trend that is unhappy and violated at the moment is the 1hr. So perhaps we see some corrective action to fix that, but overall it is the only trend violated and so I don't think we have to run down to fix it right away. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4003 Downtrend (3/27/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4002 Uptrend (3/24/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/24/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If we dip down somehow below 3980 I might look for an entry point to the upside. With markets mixed right now I would really feel like I want to hold and watch. The only other Long position I might take is if I feel like attempting to scalp the market, which I only do on occasion if I think we are sitting in excessively calm waters. The Short Position; Potentially a movement down below 4010 or so I might try to jump in, just to see if I can carry it below 4000 and cash out around 3980. I feel very cautious about this movement also though, so we shall see how it looks at the time. I additionally might try to scalp a few short positions on micro timeframe overbought areas, but only hold them for 5-10 points or so, and only if I see we are in excessively calm conditions at the moment. Economic Data; As usual, it will be a quiet day on the market data for Monday. GDP is Thursday and PCE is Friday. My sentiment into today (from 4030) is; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral I will mark this as a Short position, just because I am slightly bearish into my excessively neutral sentiment. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Yet again, we nearly max out trends to the downFirst off, I just want to say... My 6E (Euro/USD) call was my money maker this morning. I didn't go in overnight, but when I woke up I immediately saw the draw down in the 6E and hopped in. I made about $800 off that, and got out, though I think it could definitely be headed for some more downward movement. However, the S&P Futures is my bread and butter, so I decided not to distract myself further with that and get to work. With the volatility of yesterday and this recent down move, we have trends signals on the downside. Currently on the ESM contract, the 4hr is signaling a downtrend and will finish here at 9am EST. Unless we have a major move upward, I expect that bar to finish off with this downtrend signal. The ES! overlay contract has the same 4hr downtrend bar forming, but additionally has a potential 6hr downtrend signal, the last downtrend signal it has left. The ESM contract never provided a 6hr uptrend, so that signal is only on the ES! contract because of the price difference between contracts. Once the 4hr bar finalizes, I'll be looking to see if the momentum wants to carry down until 13:00 EST to finalize the 6hr downtrend on the ES!, at which point I'll be looking for a Long position by then. However, I might look for initial long positions at 9 EST based on the ESM contract. Prime scenario, is that at 9 EST I'm able to get a good Long position, cash out, the market drops again until 13:00 EST to also get the 6hr downtrend, I go long again, and double my profit. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3973 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3968 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 3971 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I believe I explained that above, but looking for this movement down to simmer and rally back up, at least briefly, at around 9am EST. If it doesn't, I'd be looking for a rally up at 13:00 EST. The Short Position; If we rally up without grabbing the trends we are signaling, or if there is a rally at 9am EST that looks like it will falter, I may look for a short position back down to get a 6hr downtrend mark. This is a riskier approach from my analysis, and I may avoid this position. Economic Data; Durable Goods is today and some manufacturing PMI. I'm still waiting for the strong labor market of yesterday to be priced in, which with this down move, appears to be happening this morning. My sentiment on the day from the current position of 3940 is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Long Term -Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
3
Trends somewhat mixed, but momentum signals more downsideOne thing I forgot to mention on the video was the low volume from yesterday. FOMC decision days tend to have a higher volume than 1.7 million. That has also left me a bit cautious the downward move may not stick. If it is going to stick, I'd expect some continued downward motion with higher volume and more conviction. Overall, trends on the 1hr/2hr are calling for upward movement (and have thus far shown that) but the 30m/3hr call for us to head lower. Additionally, the 4hr and 6hr previous trends that didn't signal on that downward move, and above, are also calling for lower moves, whereas the 12hr has been violated and will want to see upward movement and the Daily is basically neutral with where we are. So I can't say the trends are giving an extremely clear direction, so I look to a more fundamental which is price action and the lack of bounce into the end of yesterday's session. While we have seen a bounce overnight, I still think we could see some follow through into today, especially in fragile areas like Financials. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 3971 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low There is still some inconsistency between the ES! and ESM contracts, noted in the * marks. The Long Position; Failure to break below the 1hr/2hr could signal a buy in situation for a continuation of the rally we've been having this week so far. I'll be looking for micro timeframes (3200 tick, 5m, 15m) to begin showing an uptrend momentum change if I'm going to try and get into that position, especially after the downward move that ended us yesterday. The Short Position; I'm currently short at 4020. I'd like to see us break below the 3960 level (ESM Daily ascending higher low downtrend line) and see some of the ES! trends fall back in line with the ESM trends. This is my preferred situation. If I wasn't short already, or if for some reason I cash out, I'll be looking for an uptrend on the 30m which will likely be a lower high as a renewed entry point to the low. Economic Data; BoE has their rate decision in just a few moments. I think it could cause some impact in the premarket trading here. Additionally, jobs numbers are due this morning, currently expected to show strong labor market data. A surprise to either side really could send the market in either direction, with strong labor market showing recession resilience but continued inflation risks, and a weakening labor market showing a recession looming, but less inflationary wage pressure. So trade that as you see fit (or follow along the rest of the market like I try to do). My sentiment into today (from 3990) Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term -Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends still could allow some upward movement; However, FED DayI've said it a dozen times... remember that nothing annihilates a technical analysis like key Economic Data. So with that, at 2pm EST, it is the interest rate decision, though really I think it'll be the forward guidance that drives the market up or down. The last time we heard Jerome Powell talk (during his Congressional Hearing) he was rather Hawkish and discussing raising the target interest rate expectations as inflation is just not coming down as much as they had hoped. Then we had the banking crisis, which has now in terms of stock valuation fully recovered and if the current trajectory continues will actually be HIGHER than prior to the issue. It certainly appears that risk appetite is in full hunger mode. I am stll sitting in a short at 4019. In hindsight I should have set a profit stop once we got well below it yesterday, but did not. If we end up higher on the day with more room for upward movement I may take my loss on that one. I did get profit stopped out of my 6E trade, but continue to believe that is set for a reversal move back down. I may take a day off of trading that one though. Either way, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4027 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3977 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High* 4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Keep in mind that these trends are along the ESM from the 4 hour and below. So the discrepancies between the ES! overlay and ESM specifically are annotated in an * The Long Position; Currently I don't have much in terms of a long position sentiment. I think we've gone up too much, too quickly, on low volume. I can't say I'd find a reason to go long at this point, unless the FOMC comes out extremely Dovish and talks about cutting rates, which I don't foresee happening with the increased inflation pressure and appearance of a full recovery of the financial system. The Short Position; On a technical level we should at LEAST be having a calm, small whipsaw day, but with the FOMC coming out I don't see that happening, so the technical analysis says we should at least have a down day if we go one direction or the other. Additionally, if Powell comes out hawkish it could really send the market spinning back down after way to much upward risk appetite. Economic Data; It's a Fed Day, and includes forward projections, so 2pm EST is going to be huge. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral Remember your risk management plan, be careful trading into the FOMC decision, and safe trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
$NASDAQ $QQQ $SPY closed near key resistance, FOMC 2pm EST- NASDAQ QQQ and SPY closed near resistance QQQ im looking at $311 daily time frame triple top. - FOMC 25BPS tomorrow 80% chance, need to see in Powell's speech if this is our last hike or we get a pause, also information on the banking situation too. - XLF is going to be key factor tomorrow for SPY's direction, went completely sideways today will break strongly in a direction tomorrow. - i am slightly bearish here since we are right at key resistance but FOMC can change that in an instant, for ex we get a pause after this hike then we are very likely breaking that resistance if that happens i am bullish and going long.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ArcadiaTrading
Recession has become the Bull Case? Trends into 3/21/2023So I went short this morning at 4019 based on a MACD data plot on the ESM contracts. The buy zone on a data plot was 3948, and I feel like that really followed through into today, where my sell plot was to be at 4019. I had a short preset overnight and it struck early this morning. As far as trends, we are beginning to hit a lot of higher timeframe uptrends that are all lower highs, so even if we are going to head higher, I see us hitting some resistance here on a regular basis. We just got a lower high 3hr Uptrend at 4008, and we are currently signaling a 4hr uptrend depending on where we close here by 9am EST. Those trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3959 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3977 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Key notations, the 4047 is in an uptrend on the ES! overlay, though it is only just now signaling on the ESM. The 6hr is in an uptrend on the ES! overlay as well (lower high) but has not signaled on the ESM contract specifically. The Long Position; I don't have a Long Position up here at above 4010. If we drop down to around 3950, I might potentially look at reverse my current position (Short) to see if we come back up. Depends on how it looks. The Short Position; I'm currently in a short position at 4019 to hold down to around 3950. If we falter and I bail on this before 3950, I'll likely keep shorting if we come up to this 4019 level over and over again. Economic Data; Some housing sales stuff today, but I don't see that having a major impact on the market. I still think this market is prime to potentially head lower with no positive Macroeconomic environment really out there right now. My sentiment into today (from 4019) Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
ES! vs ESM contract trends differ; Patience is paramount againI wanna make some breakfast so I'll keep the write up short. I'm out of the market at the moment, and my overall sentiment is very neutral. The ES! contract overaly has a bit of room for us to head further south, however the ESM contract has that anything towards 3900 is going to come back up. I'll be watching for the potential of both. Overall the market sentiment is more Bullish than Bearish, but there is enough doom and gloom to break that mental barrier at any moment. The trends into today (On the ESM); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3983 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3963 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 3949 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Lower Low* 3Hr - 4047* Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The * signifies the discrepancies between the ES! and ESM. We are in a Higher Low for the 2hr on the ES!, we just got a new lower low on the 3hr in the ES!, and we are currently in an uptrend on the 4hr on the ES!. Currently I'm still mostly following the ESM specifically, because the price doesn't have the gap to throw off the math and analysis. The Long Position; If we get low towards 3900 and I don't see a meltdown occurring, I'll be looking for a nice Long position. While investors are dumping financial stocks, they are picking up in tech stocks. The Short Position; I'll be looking for any indication that the general gloom of the market is taking over, and we are heading back down into 3800 territory, or a good spot to grab a short to head down towards low 3900s again to prepare for a Long Position swap. Economic Data; There is no impactful data today. Legarde speaks twice today and once tomorrow, so I'd watch for how that impacts things. Wednesday is Fed Day, so I expect that is where most of the focus will be on. My sentiment; I'm very neutral across the board at the moment. Maybe I'll have a different feel as things go. These are those moments where patience is key. If you followed along, you're aware I made close to $25,000 last week, so there is ZERO reason for me to rush into a position to try and make some money this week. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
4
Upward movement is hitting resistant Trends; Beware the WitchingSo I had taken a small profit last night on 3997 short and then reengaged at 4000 where I had wanted to get in at to begin with. I had set an overnight cash out at 3968 based on the 1hr trendlines and while driving home today, totally forgot it was still set and it cashed me out of my short position for a profit of $1600. I'm not upset about it, but I likely would still be holding that position if that hadn't happened. I did not just jump back into the market at that point, and figured I'd take the time to sit back and analyze things. Given the high profit week I've had (I believe I'm close to around $20,000 but I'd have to check) I might just take the rest of the day off. Anyways, there is some conflict in the trends depending on if I am looking at the ES contract overlay or specifically the ESM contract we are working inside right now. The ES overlay had a 2hr uptrend that came in at a higher high, whereas the 2hr hitting at the same spot on the ESM is a lower high. Also, the ES overlay had the 3hr and 4hr also go into an uptrend, whereas the ESM contract did not have those trend changes. It leaves be a bit conflicted on my short position, but overall my sentiment is still bearish on today's market. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3983 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3963 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 3987 Uptrend (3/16/2023) Lower High* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low* 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low* 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Be aware the 1hr Downtrend stuck after I finished the video and is therefore more up to date in this write up. The Long Position; If I see a significant pull up towards the 4000 level and into positive territory, I may briefly go into a long position until I see the 3hr/4hr uptrends come in on the ESM contract. I don't know that I want to go Long here and attempt to catch this falling knife. The Short Position; Any pullback upwards that doesn't show a lot of bullish commitment where likely be another entry point to get in on a considerable move downward, likely back towards at least 3900. I think the rally in the Nasdaq will lose some of the push and a continue confidence loss in the financial sector and energy sector could really hurt the market today. This is my more likely scenario. Economic Data; Europe posted some really bad CPI data. Though surprisingly it did very little to the market overall. Otherwise, the US has some Michigan data coming out, such as consumer expectations, that could cause a ruckus at around 10am EST. My Sentiment into Today (from 3965) Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral I will make this as a "Short" idea today, because I believe that we end with a down day, and likely lower than 3965. Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Trends maxed to the downside; However direction unclearI don't have as much confidence in a direction today as I've had the last few days, sorry. No overnight trades for me and while I want to go Long here, I'm not so sure this is the area I want to try for a long position. Ultimately, with the money I've made the last 3 days, I think it might be a good day to sit out for me unless I see something of tremendous opportunity. I do have a Buy signal on the MACD Momentum chart, but that is for this current day, which means it is a signal in development and not for sure. If it holds and we have a down day, then I may buy in at the close of the session for tomorrow, but that doesn't help me today. Overall, at best assessment, I think we have a whipsaw day and end right around +\- 10 or even zero. I'd say that might happen without much movement, but we do have jobless claims in the next hour, so I expect some market reaction on that initially. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3919 Downtrend (3/16/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3921 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I think we are currently in a potential Long position at 3910, I just don't feel the ends justify the risk, as I see it pulling back up at least above the 30m trend line which is only like 3918. The Short Position; For me to decide I want to go short, I'd have to see a 30m/1hr/2hr lower high uptrend mark. I don't know that the 30m will give us that if we rally from here, and the 1hr has to come in below 3948. Not sure that happens this morning without a big push down first. Economic Data; Jobless data comes out. As well as some building permits and Philly Manufacturing Data. Jobless data is likely the biggest thing unless something shocks outside of expectations. I'll be interested to see where the 8:30 movement takes us. My overall sentiment (from 3912); Shorter Term - Hint of Bullish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Basically the market is either looking to turn trends around to head further up, or consolidating and trying to catch a few lower timeframe trends to take this market further down. I know that doesn't help with a direction from today, but that is my sentiment. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan. I am marking this Long, as I think we jump back up to above 3920 from this 3912 range, and that if we end with a low day that I think tomorrow is a rally day.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
After the morning plummet, outlook is hard to seeSo I went short last night at 3961 believing that the late day surge was illogical. In fact, I didn't go on a tangent in the video, but many news articles said "Inflation is cooling and markets are surging". That is a downright lie, and why you need to understand Economic Data and find things yourself. CPI INCREASED from .4% to .5%, which isn't a major jump, but certainly doesn't show things going down. I've cashed out this morning already at 3880 for $4000 when we hit a 2% drop on the day in just an hour. My analysis says we should head back up now, but I've held off going Long at this point as while the technical analysis says we should bounce, this Credit Suisse continuation of financial collapse fears came with a vengeance. Honestly, at over $10k for the week now, I really might just sit out today and let fear vs analysis work itself out unless I see a fantastic entry point. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3935 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3921 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; The current area is already a decent entry point (3880ish). Any more movement down without some supporting information is likely to garner even more confidence of a pop back up to at least the level of 3913-3922. The Short Position; I don't really have an analysis that would cause me to go short again from here (3880). I'd have to see us rally back up and get at least a 30m uptrend mark and hold onto more potential for a downside here to get involved in a short. I'll update later, but at this time there is not much that would cause me to snag a short this low on the day already. Economic Data; PPI and Retail Sales is today. It might give some insight into the FOMC hiking rates or pausing to try and heal this financial crisis issue that has surfaced. My sentiment into today (from 3880); Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral I want to dive into the belief we are heading towards those October lows, but I think there is just too much sentiment at the moment for us to get below 3800, and the technical analysis doesn't support any strong pushes down just yet. Safe trading, and remember your risk management! I am marking this as a "Long", as while I think we will end up negative on the day, I think we head up above this level of 3880.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
1
Trends still maxed to the downside; but CPI data incomingSo, after crushing a $5000+ day yesterday I will unlikely trade into the CPI data this morning. Ultimately the market environment could certainly take us lower, but the market analysis says we have to go higher. Likely the cause of a massive volume day yesterday at nearly 3.5 million. Although, we are around 25 points higher this morning so far, so we could head lower if we begin to see some trends pop up here and the upward movement fail. I want to point out that while the trends indicate the 2hr is a higher low, that is only on the M contract, and if I merged the K Contract into the M Contract we had gotten a brief 2hr uptrend and then bottomed at a 2hr downtrend yesterday. I'll likely merge the two contracts together here at the end of this week, but the huge gap in price between the two contracts can really throw off the shorter timeframes. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3916 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3886 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low So again, you can see we are still maxed out to the downside. The Long Position; Any pump to the downside is likely to reverse to at least a neutral area. Being that I can sit out if I choose to because my profit is high for the week already, this will likely be my more immediate stance. Additionally, if it Economic Data comes in to skyrocket us and runaway to the upside, I might jump in for a small piece of that if I see a good entry point. The Short Position; If we begin to see the 30m/1hr uptrends, I'll be looking to see if the momentum is failing and jump into a short position there, likely trying to ride a 1hr uptrend to a 30m downtrend at least. I'm less likely to get involved in this though, and if I do I'm unlikely to hold this position for more than some daily gains. Economic Data; CPI Print is today. It will likely either cause some reversing action and a rally in the financials, or more fighting over the potential for a rally vs where we should go with economic data if things look bleak. My sentiment going into today (from 3920ish) Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral I'm going to mark this as a "Long" position, only because I'm likely to attempt to buy any dips with expectations of coming back up to the 3913ish level.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
4
Trends maxed to the downside; And what is all this about Banks?!So on Friday I went Long at the close of the day into the weekend. That netted a $2500 trade right away when things opened up into Sunday evening. I cashed out on that, and was pleasantly surprised to see all those gains given up overnight. I then went Long again when we briefly went into negative territory at 3894, and moved up with it slowly, where I was eventually stopped out on the reverse movement at 3914 for another $1000. $3500 before the open of Monday for the week is pretty fantastic. I attempted one more Long here but was stopped out for $50 profit, and at this point I'll just be looking for signs the upward momentum is beginning again. There is some confusion in drawing trends as the /ESK contract ended and now we are in the /ESM contract. I changed the trend numbers all over to the current /ESM contract, and they are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3916 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3886 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; My more likely trading scenario, as we are maxed out in all trends to the downside at the moment. I expect any down movement to have a pop back to the upside. So I will be more or less looking for good entry points that show that upward momentum is beginning, and run it up until it appears it might fail and cash out. We had a significant downward movement Friday with decent momentum, so I don't know that a rally will stick, but certainly I expect an upward spiking whipsaw day at least, even if we end relatively flat. The Short Position; This banking thing has many on edge. If we do get a spike up, it could be followed by a strong move back down, and if we hit up against the current lows of the 3890 area enough times, we might just bust through it and head lower for the day, continuing the meltdown we've seen over the last 2 days because of this SVB saga. Earnings; Adobe is this week, but otherwise Earnings are still nonexistent. Economic Data; We have nothing for today. However, we do have CPI Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday, with more job numbers on Thursday. Should definitely be a wild ride this week. I find it interesting that we are set for a technical bounce just before important inflation data. It means the market is primed for a major spike upward if this data comes in showing inflation is continuing to cool. Side Note; If you haven't been checking into the Silicon Valley Bank run, you really need to read into it. Thus far, basically SVB didn't position against the rate hikes very well, they moved to acquire more capital, it got out they needed capital, and this caused a frenzy of withdrawals that ultimately led to the Banks immediate collapse. The FDIC came in and took the bank over, and initially only deposits up to $250,000 were insured. This is a similar situation that occurred in 2008 during the great recession with Washington Mutual just before 500 other banks also ran into financial crisis. Therefore everyone had a sudden fear of other banks going under like before, and there has been a mass sell off in Financial related stocks. However, in analyzing things, banks are significantly less interconnected and have to establish better practices to protect against this, and while SVB made a mistake here, it wasn't that it mismanaged anything long term. They just made a single hiccup, so widespread fallout appears to be unlikely. Additionally, the FDIC has come out and said they will ensure all the money of all depositors, so no one will lose out other than investors. However, the fallout of this may very well force the FOMC to not just keep rate hikes lower at 25bps (it was believed late last week we could go to 50bps), but even pause the rate hike with not even a 25bps hike in order to make sure the financial sector remains healthy in the US. Certainly trade it as you see fit, but overall I think the panic move on this has most certainly been overdone, and we went about 30-40 points to low on Friday, even for a potential downward move. My sentiment into today, from 3895, is; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends maxed to the downside - But Payrolls (and soybeans?!?)So while I exited a bit too early, my prediction came about yesterday, and here we are. With us being maxed out to the downtrend, except the 30m that just popped an uptrend, I've some concerns that we will have a technical bounce up to gather some of the higher timeframe trends before we decide if we go flat briefly and rally, or build strength to head lower. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3911 Uptrend (3/10/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3919 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Any major movement down, especially if we get a 30m downtrend, will likely reverse back up to our current level. Additionally, we could see a technical bounce today, I'm just not sure it happens instantaneously. This is my more likely scenario excluding factoring in Economic Data (see below). However, every uptrend we hit is going to be a potential resistance, so I don't know that I will hold a Buy position for very long. The Short Position; I could see that if we come up, that we might want to briefly visit the lows of the day before we end up neutral. So basically, head lower at the open, to the lows, before settling there for the day or even coming back up. I'm not sure I'll take this position today, but it is the scenario that plays out if we head short. Economic Data; Payrolls and Unemployment is today. Likely going to be a major factor in the markets. So prepare yourself. My sentiment for the day (from 3910; Shorter Term - Bullish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Long Term - Neutral I will make this as a "Long", but just fyi, I don't see us having a major 1.5%-2% day to the upside. I think we could end just slightly higher than where we are by the close of the day. Safe Trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
1
Patience is Encouraged in the center of range bound territory.So I had done a short trade based on some in the moment indicators we'd have a bit of a bounce at 13:00 EST yesterday and going even lower after. It was a safe trade that netted just over $1000. Not bad, considering I didn't expect to go short at all. Overall we are in the same basic picture today as yesterday. I'll be looking for a technical move up to a 30m or even 1hr uptrend to go short, and additionally if we have a soft move down I MIGHT go long again to come back up towards the 4000 level. I think my stance is a bit more bearish than bullish at the moment, but that changed yesterday and could change again. Either way, I don't know in the short term we have a major move one way or another unless Jobless Claims surprise the market. The Trends are the same as yesterday; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4051 Downtrend (3/07/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; My least likely scenario, but if nothing seems to be needing to be priced in the market and we trickle down, I'd expect some buying pressure to bring us back up towards 4000. So I may go long at this point if we run down towards 3960 or so. Would need something to help me see a momentary bounce to buy in right now though. The Short Position; Being no surprising market data, I expect a brief pop still in the market, potentially towards the 4010 level or just below it along the mid time frame trend lines. I'd then look for signs that pop is fading and that it is just the next downward movement gaining strength. This avenue has a slightly stronger chance to me than the Long Position. Market Data; Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims. Look for a surprise to one direction or the other. Additionally, I felt that perhaps the market didn't price in the NonFarm ADP report from yesterday. That movement (downward, I suspect) could come in priced late. My sentiment (From 3984); Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Buliish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral I am going to list this as Short at the moment, as overall I think we head down from here, though I wouldn't just blindly short the market at the point and I want more clarity. Safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Recap of the Powell Testimony and Market Direction AnalysisNot sure how the video ended up so long, probably because of the rambling on the Powell Testimony and the impact on the market, but here we are. The 4010 level stayed relevant so long that 4 trends in a row all landed on that mark even though they ended at different times. I wouldn't be surprised if we briefly revisit that level before we head further south. The Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4051 Downtrend (3/07/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; With trends nearly maxed to the downside, I could see us having a bounce back. Additionally, we are around that 4000 level that has kept us range bound for 5 months now. Perhaps this time it acts as a support to surge us back up. The Short Position; The more likely option in my opinion. MACD Momentum has a weekly signal downward, the Daily Uptrend signal is fading, and the 2hr to 6hr trends were all lower lows, paving the way for more downward movement. Additionally, it was an above 2 million volume day, I don't think that sort of momentum just ends without a sideways day at least. I could see us continue to push downward back towards that 3913 level at least, even if there is a brief bounce back up to 4000-4010. Economic Data; More Powell Testimony. I went over some highlights of that in the video. Additionally, we have the JOLTs Job Data from January, which could surprise to the upside and cause a ruckus. The ADP Non Farm is also here shortly, and any surprise on that might also cause ripples in the market. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends into 3/6 week call for some initial corrective actionThe rally I had expected showed up, and now I feel it is time to have a cooling off moment before it decides where we head to next. In order to save a lot of time, I've removed the trend lines I usually maintain, because it takes a while to have to draw them out, and just went with the major one that is in focus, and listing all the trends in the box. Ultimately we have a number of lower high's from the 1hr to the 6hr that we have violated. That leads me to believe that some of this rally may come back, and we need some cooling off before we decide a direction. I don't know that I want to get into any major positions with the market at the moment until I get some clarification. The Trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4044 Downtrend (3/06/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3969 Uptrend (3/2/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 3983 Uptrend (3/2/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4013 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4006 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4039 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If I see a few downtrend signals pop that allow us to have a higher low, but the price action begins to rally off that mark, I will likely go in Long to capitalize on the current rally movement as I've not had a signal that this rally should end in the short term at this time. The Short Position; I've received a sell signal on my Momentum script on a weekly basis. I don't have a lot of back study involved in a price diversion between the weekly movement and weekly move signal, but we've been in a rally and had an up week, but ended last week with a sell signal. I find that concerning. I think at least in the short term, if some micro trends or even the 30m begin to show continued lower lows and lower highs, I will likely short the market at least back to 4000. This is my more likely expectation of the next movement. My sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral I'm not ready to throw in the towel on a rally just yet, I just see some potential downside before more possible upside, so I want to wait and be patient. Because I believe the first movement could be a down move, I'm listing this as a Short for the day. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader