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ES1!10. 16. 22 The ES Is an example of a market it has volatility... which you want, but it produces reversals that are so significant that if you are not a swing Trader, the reversals can be very stressful. I think it's important think about this video because it might give you some ideas that will fit into the way you Process the market.I showed that a Buyer Who only goes wrong at reversals and gets out when the market retest gaps... where the sellers are... can make as much money as the traitor who sells at the top and holds the market to where it is now. I believe good buyers I'm good sellers... based on their ability to trade reversal patterns.... we'll both make good money from the market. It's more about their ability as traders.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin
1
Trends: My Warnings Came True; My Next Warning - Take a Day OffSo I had warned against getting into the doom and gloom of a higher than anticipated CPI reading. I'd also stated I believed we were going to rally higher. Both came true. My suggestion to most, is that unless your trading strategy has a great way of reading this current market, is to step away now for a day, especially if you're up significantly for the week like I am. I'm not updating the trends, but I'll summarize... shorter term trends look to possibly go higher, but longer-term trends are in a down. I initially had shorted at 3680 yesterday, however that went higher and I decided to jump out the moment the market came back down to 3679. I will be taking the day off today, rewarding myself for good trades last week and also letting the market show whatever it wants after that crazy day yesterday. I do believe that 3450 range was the bottom and anything past it won't be seen again. At this point I'd be surprised if we even hit down into below 3600, unless it is somewhere around 3570-3590ish at the most. The volume and price action of yesterday showed me that we are likely near the bottom of this bear market, if we didn't just hit it altogether. That said, any rally is at risk from increasing geopolitical issues and a growing risk of entering a full recession from the technical recession we are already in. Earnings; All eyes will be on Bank Earnings mostly today. From the quick glance I took as I write this, it sounds like they beat Estimates (Walmart Effect) but most were down in revenue. Economic Data; We have retail sales data today that impact how everyone views our current spending and economic growth potential. If you do decide to trade, best wishes and remember your risk management plan My Sentiment; Shorter Term ; Full Neutral (Hence why I'm taking the day off) Short Term ; Bearish Neutral Medium Term ; Bullish Long Term ; Bearish Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends and All Eyes on the CPI DataReal quick, since recording this we had a huge jump up in the market. I'm guessing since things broke a key level or potentially a few of the Earnings came in. I'll update if I can figure out why that happened. Anyways, if you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3607 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3644 Uptrend (10/11/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3677 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3714 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As I state in the video, not sure that trends will be running the show today as much as the CPI data will be. I also make a case for why in the long run outside of an initial reaction, I don't think this CPI data is as important as it is being made out to look. Anyways, there is some Earnings I'll toss out as I check into them. All trends are down except that 2hr and the Micro Trends, which has a 5m downtrend but a 15m uptrend. I would treat really cautious today, as I expect a major move worth a few thousand dollars in ES Minis, I just don't pretend to know which way that initial reaction will go off the data. Safe Trading! Remember your risk management plan My Sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Neutral with a hint of bullish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
One more Minor Rally and then... who knows? But First...So we got most of the rally I had expected yesterday. I did not expect it to drop off 70% of the way through the rally though and drop off hard. That being said, I still expect than for us to reach up and grab a 2hr Uptrend signal. If you look, you see the 2hr now sticking out like a splinter in your finger as it is just running against every other trend indicator. Unfortunately, while I did make $1000 yesterday, nothing really went according to plan even with the market moving much of the way I expected and I did not get to capitalize on my own market analysis coming through.... I'm over it though. If you don't feel like watching the video, the trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3630 Uptrend (10/11/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3644 Uptrend (10/11/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3677 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3714 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Statistically, we have not had more than 5 down days in a row all year, and so in that level of statistics, today should be an up day. Additionally, most days before CPI data have been pumped upwards. Earnings; We had PepsiCo report, they beat estimates. Economic Data; PPI (Headline and Core) is today (8:30 EST) FOMC Minutes also (14:00 EST) I expect both to begin to cause some significant movement. I would tread carefully over the next couple of days. Make sure to double check your risk management plan. My Sentiment Today; Shorter Term ; Bullish Short Term ; Neutral Medium Term ; Neutral Bullish Long Term ; Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
2
Short Term Mini Rally Likely; Longterm I'd tread carefullySo, the video is longer than expected, but I did talk about what it is I look for if I'm trying to grab at the peak of a low move to go back upward. Anyways, if you want the trends and don't want to watch the video, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3624 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3677 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3714 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low We snagged a 12hr Downtrend already. I actually think that adds into the possibility of a reversal more than a continuation of heading is down, as now if we push upward and get a new 12hr uptrend we may just have a higher high, and then the next downtrend would be a higher low. I almost jumped into a long this morning at the 3580 range. Small regret not doing so, but it just didn't have the signs I wanted at the time. Something to note, yesterday was the first sub 2million trading day in over a month. The last one was 9/9. It wasn't by much, but it does show interest in things going down is slowing. Ultimately, while it did not come yesterday, I think we need a rally to get that 1hr and 2hr uptrend marks so we can have a lower high to work from. We do have the 3hr lower low downtrend to work with right now as well as the 30m trends, but it bothers me we don't have the 1hr or 2hr, especially when the 2hr was the guiding light on bringing us down from 4000 to 3600. I'm not sure what helped bring us further down overnight, but I don't see us staying in this negative territory today. I mention in the video, but I'll put it out here also, I would give caution (I know, I think I always have some "Cautionary Words") regarding holding any positions for the long haul over the remainder of this week. We have serious economic data starting tomorrow, and we have some Earnings beginning tomorrow. In the video I did talk about the Monthly Uptrend we are about to hit, and if we head lower that may be an important level to watch. Overall my sentiment is as follows; Shortest Term - Bullish Short Term - Neutral Mid Term - Bullish Neutral Long Term - Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Friday was a flawless trend movement; Reversal setup beginningSo I had said that a perfect scenario to have a real rally, would include coming down low enough to grab the 6hr downtrend mark. I would have been satisfied with the 4hr, but again, had mentioned a perfect scenario would be that 6hr. Once we hit the 6hr, as expected it has gone a bit lower, but we have managed to flatten out and get above the trend line just a bit. There is a bit of a mix signal coming as the 1hr and 2hr are showing bullish, even with the 3hr and above still showing bearish. I expect some whipsaw action, with the first movement being upward to get at least a 1hr uptrend, which will be a lower high. I'd evaluate at that point where we might be going next. If you aren't interested in watching the video, trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3713 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3677 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3714 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3814 Uptrend (10/06/2022) Lower High Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I go over it in the video, but I do believe that ultimately we need to snag a weekly uptrend signal soon, as we've technically been oversold on a weekly uptrend since February of 2022. My current sentiment is; Short Term; Bullish Mid Term; Neutral/ Bullish Long Term; Bearish Safe Trading, and remember your Risk Management Plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
4
ES1!10. 9. 22 The ES Indicates that there may be buyers if you're looking at the 4-Hour chart. There may be subtle differences when comparing the daily chart. It's the way it is. You might have to think about it a little bit and make trade decisions. To some people it's more information than they want to see. I want to see the information, even if it complicates the trading decision. The video left you with a trainee decision that I cannot precisely define: the opening price or a toolbar pattern may give you the clue. Personally, my concern is that the breakout sellers that drove the market to this level are vulnerable to a rinse cycle hire. If I am a longer-term Trader, and I'm not so worried about a 40 point correction higher Because I think the market will ultimately move lower, I can make a decision on that basis. If I trade multiple contracts and I'm short, I might take a contract for two off the table.... And I might scale in at a higher price if the market moves higher and add to my short position. There are so many permutations. Personally, my preference is not to take big drawdowns play profitable trade... but better Traders will do it differently and me. My core belief is it the market to Move significantly lower before it breaks above This bearish swing lower.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin
1
2Hr Trend says Higher, 4Hr Trend Says Lower; Who will win?So we ended yesterday like we did Wednesday, with full on selling pressure. With that we got a 2Hr downtrend mark. I will likely continue to sit out of the market for the moment. With the 2hr beginning to show an uptrend, and the 4hr displaying it wants to continue the downtrend, I think the area in between is a clear No Go zone. Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3793 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 3814 Uptrend (10/06/2022) Lower High Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low All the hype of the day will be on watching Unemployment and Payroll, but remember that yesterday's jobless claim while starting us off with a mini rally, did not provide the relief anyone was looking for on a Fed Pivot. The same Fed Pivot that the Fed Speakers have said is NOT coming. Not that anyone will care about Unemployment next week with CPI data coming. However, if you're unaware, the belief that they are lying about the Pivot is based on the low credibility of the FOMC right now, coupled with the belief that if the US doesn't stop raising interest rates, it'll increase to the risk of a global financial crisis. Likewise, if you're curious as to why a 4%ish rate hike is considered high when they used to be so much higher on average... it is because we used to have 6% on a $10,000 purchase, but that same item now costs $30,000, and 4% of 30k is a lot more than 6% of 10k. So therein lies the issue. I actually think the biggest immediate threat to any potential rally isn't so much the market, but the geopolitical issues on the rise in various areas again. Will the US piss someone else off? Is Russia going to launch a tactical nuke into Ukraine to try and win the war? Will China move in on Taiwan? Is North Korea going to continue their shenanigans? Don't forget Europe is in a recession and has crisis level energy issues. Oh and OPEC+ is trimming production (that they weren't keeping up with anyways). Certainly not trying to be a doomsayer, but the issue is any potential rally out of this bear market has several issues outside of the direct US economy that could immediately put it at risk. My Sentiment is slightly changed; Short Term - Bearish Neutral (I still think we could hit 3700) Mid Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish Neutral If you are trading in this, best wishes and remember your trading strategy and risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Shorter Timeframe Trends Battle the Longer Timeframe TrendsWe snagged the 12hr Uptrend I'd said I believed we were getting, and then did reverse (so far) off that as predicted. If you don't have time to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3793 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3707 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 3814 Uptrend (10/06/2022) Lower High Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As we can see, the 30m and 1hr are showing an overall uptrend. However, everything below them, sans Weekly, are in a downtrend. I still believe that overall we head back down to at least 3700ish, where we can try to collect the 4hr, or best case to 3650ish where we can get the 6hr, and then evaluate where things go from there. If we can snag the 4hr and 6hr, and then we rally, I'll be all for that being the bottom of this downtrend for 2022. Perhaps we hit new lows in 2023, but I'll worry about that in 2023. I will still be sitting out today. I don't trust this rally, but I also am having flashbacks of June/July when I attempted to trade into a bizarre rally using math and got burned pretty bad twice. While I recouped the two bad trades I made during that, I'd prefer to sit out while things are acting up and be ready to make a better entry when the signs truly come around, even if that takes me into next week. Earnings; I didn't run over Earnings today, they are the same I mentioned yesterday and are mostly irrelevant this week. Economic Data; I did check into Challenger Job Cuts, it does appear there was an increase in job cuts from last month to here, however last month was very low (4th lowest for the year), and I see very little market reaction on that data set. I was surprised at the increase in percentage, so I wanted to make sure I was reading it correctly, but yes, there was a dramatic increase in job cuts MoM and YoY, although it doesn't appear to be an aggressively high number overall when I looked at historical numbers. My main focus for today will be Jobless Claims coming up at 8:30am EST. Last month was one of the lowest jobless claims to date, so it is expected to go up a tiny amount. A surprise to one side or the other may send the market into a tizzy for the day. I am more interested however in Payrolls tomorrow, because I think it will be a better measure of where inflation is heading going into October. My Sentiment Continues to be; Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish / Neutral Trade Safely! Remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
4
Trends are Overbought; But is it time to get back in?So as I make my living trading on trends, and trends are now mathematically so out of sync, I will likely be sitting out of the market today (and most likely tomorrow as well). Obviously I had called a rally as we closed Friday, but certainly did not expect it to be hitting at this level. You'll see in the video that the Daily descending line appears it is going to be a big deal at stopping this excessive momentum. I still think we head into the 3600s before any possible longer term rally begins. I do think we are going to have an overall rally in October. I know... I'm giving those mixed signals. Anyways, enjoy the video! If you don't feel like watching, the trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3767 Downtrend (10/05/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3668 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3707 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 3956 Downtrend (9/13/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Earnings are mostly minor and irrelevant this week. Economic Data for the Day has Trade Balance data and more Manufacturing Data. There is also some NonFarm Employment Change but I'd consider that minor today against the Trade Balance and ISM stuff. Remember your risk management and trade safely. I am currently; Bearish on the Short Term Bullish on the Mid Term Bearish on the Long Term
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Trends Reversing? I Expect some down before more UpIn the event you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3636 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3668 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3707 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 3956 Downtrend (9/13/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low With so many of the recent ones being a lower high, I don't believe this rally will continue for the moment. I expect things to fizzle out here and drop back down to at LEAST 3700, more likely 3660, with a chance at 3625. I go over how I'd want to see these trends begin to form in the video if we are truly going up, and basically I'd gear up for a likely volatile week ahead. On the Economic Data front for today; Watch the JOLTs Job Data mostly for today. It SHOULD be lower than the previous reading, as it is based off of AUGUST data, not even September, and we have some data on August to base that estimate off of. Long Term (Where we go over the next quarter) - I am Bearish Medium Term (From where we go in the next week or so) - I am Bullish Short Term (From where we are) - I am Bearish Side Note - Geopolitical Issues continue to rise. If you didn't hear, North Korea shot a rocket over Japan. Any rally is at extreme risk if geopolitical issues continue to increase.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Natural Gas ES10.3.22 Looking for a long trade in natural gas: Showing the setup. The ES1! Has come to a 1.272 Extension which may be a reversal pattern... and requires some caution. If I were not in this market and I had to make the trade decision, I would be a buyer here with a small stop. If I was already a seller, I wouldn't have a large stop, but I might weather the drawdown that is about to happen. It it's just not an easy decision to make in my opinion... and that is the way it works at times. it could be my inefficiency as a decision maker, or could be mixed messages of the market, it doesn't matter... I tend to focus on avoiding painful drawdowns. If I don't lose money today, I'm around tomorrow or next week take the train when there's more certainly. In my early training there were times when I was too impulsive, and times when I did Revenge Trading.... very bad habits.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin