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Trends could clear downward movement to at least 4070ishSo I went Long yesterday like I said I would at 4101 (3/4hr downtrends), and then ultimately reversed the position at 4122 (1hr Uptrend). I'm currently holding that trade and looking for it to make a move down to the 6hr downtrend at least. The S&P has really left me underwhelmed this week, and I'd like to try and make a bit more profit from it if possible as I've had to rely on other areas to subsidize my earnings on these specific trades, and I usually look at side trades as a "bonus" rather than my standard income. The reason for the recent drop (which hasn't been significant yet) is that the labor market is weakening and now there is concern we could head into a recession. So finally people are trading bad news as bad news again (for now). Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4117 Uptrend (4/06/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4122 Uptrend (4/06/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4126 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Potentially if we head down to get that 6hr downtrend there may be room for a technical bounce up before the close. Additionally, I suppose if we begin to shoot upward past 4125, I could see us getting back up to a 2/3/4hr uptrend, as it would pave the way for lower lows to begin forming. Not my most likely scenario at the moment. The Short Position; I'm in it. I saw the Uptrend at 8am EST at 4122 as the highpoint of the day, and look to see the down momentum continue to a 6hr downtrend at least. The 6hr trend was violated and I can see it calling for a correct. Economic Data; It's all out there, jobs data shows the labor market is beginning to weaken. While some week over week numbers were less than the previous week, all measures were worse than expected and the continuing jobless claims went up overall. My Sentiment; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Uptrend beginning to dissolve; Trends into 4/5/2023So we got some initial down movement yesterday that finally challenged this massive upward movements on low volume the last few days. This provided a 30m/1hr/2hr downtrend. I'd expect the price action to recover briefly from here even if we are heading lower. It should be noted that yesterday's down movement was high in volume either. JOLTs data came in below expectations, and now today, so did ADP NonFarm payrolls. This shows the job market is weakening. With the market falling yesterday, it seems that everyone has moved past the inflation narrative and onto the concern of a looming recession. A recession is NOT priced into the market at this point, unless you theorize that it was priced in last year and now won't be considered in the market at all. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4148 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4138 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4126 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I mentioned in the video, and it should be noted at 4163ish started to signal a Daily Uptrend on the ESM. The Long Position; I think the market could be poised to run back up at least to 4150-4160 range. If I see that momentum at the open or near it, I may jump in briefly just to make money. The Short Position; With such an overheated market and such bearish sentiment, I could see there being few buyers to get behind the upward movement, and if we get a low volume upward movement topped with a 30m or 1hr uptrend, I may use that as a position to run short. Additionally, the down momentum of yesterday could continue, at least to a 3hr or 4hr downtrend. Either of those momentums will be something I'd like to try and grab. Either position is difficult to find the entry point for due to the relatively low volume over the past week. Typically price action + volume shows price direction. We've just lacked real volume lately even with major price moves. Economic Data; We still have ISM and Oil Inventories today. However, ADP NonFarm Payrolls showed a steep decline and below expectations by a sizeable amount. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends maxing to the Uptrends; And why Oil is skyrocketing?So I move it during the video to show the decline in upward trajectory, but the Daily Uptrend has signaled, still a higher high, though less upward movement. The caveat to that is that the ES! contract got the Daily, NOT the ESM. However, the ESM doesn't have a previous Daily Uptrend connection to go off of, because it doesn't have the history to draw from (just like it doesn't have a weekly signal at all to draw from), so I think with this upward movement the divergence between the two is going to mitigate here quickly. I could see the potential for us to move and get a ESM Daily Uptrend, but currently I'm going to be watching to see if this rally finally fades, to at least drop back and correct the 6hr lower high violation around 4040. What could really disperse this upward movement is the skyrocketing price of crude oil. If you're unaware, OPEC+ just advised they will be cutting production, apparently because the US who promised to restore the SPR, has now stated they will not be restoring the SPR this year. If that oil price begins to rise, while Oil only goes into Headline Inflation data and not Core Inflation data, it is always apparent how it bleeds into other areas and there will likely gain some concern that the expected rate cuts (which I don't agree are happening, but the market seems to believe we are going to have), are no longer coming and sustainment of this rally will dwindle away (except maybe some recovery in the Energy Sector). All that said, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4098 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I expect an initial downward move, however, if that downward momentum dwindles or the oil saga is resolved politically, I expect a potential recovery to at least the 4140+ level. This is my less likely scenario and I may not trade this. The Short Position; With us maxed to the upside and potential of rising gas prices, and sentiment dwindling, I am looking to ensure that the rally is fading and get into a downward trending move. I was surprised to see us come back up to neutral this morning already, and may just watch the open to see how prices react once the US Trading Day opens up. Currently the Nasdaq is coming down but the Dow Jones is halting the deepening of losses. Economic Data; Some PMI data could be important today. Geopolitical; Again, I'd watch this Oil story unfold. Additionally, with new additions to NATO, things could escalate with Russia and Western Nations in addition to the other growing geopolitical issues between the US and Asia already happening. My Long term assessment has started to turn a bit more bullish however, in that we got two higher high Uptrends in a row. If we fall hard from this point, than I will be watching the area of 3917 very closely to see if we get a lower low on the Daily as things progress. It should be noted that April is historically the second best month of the S&P. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Perfect storm brewingSo I am finally back into the S&P, and short at 4090. We got the 12hr uptrend I wanted, which was just barely a higher high and gives us room to head down and get a new lower low if the market wants to take a dive over the next few months. Lots of commodity prices are rising, bond yields are going up, the value of the dollar is beginning to gain strength, volume has been nonexistent, and stocks are overheated. To me, this is a perfect storm of a sell off coming. The last piece I want to see is that income remain low, while inflationary pressure goes back up, and I think that will tip the scale into a short scenario. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4082 Downtrend (3/31/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low If we head lower, I could see it starting off with spikes down that recover back to the 4080 level several times, before we make an ultimate plunge. The Short Position; I'm in it, at 4090. The Long Position; If we break above 4090 I could see us heading into the 4100 zone. Additionally if we spike down too hard, I might go Long briefly just to come back up to neutral before the next spike down, much like I did in going Long when we were in the 3800 range. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Optimism brings more optimism!So, the low volume continues to plague these movements. Most of the movements have been in premarket trading now also. I think another day of sit and wait is in order for me. We've gotten the 3hr/4hr/6hr uptrends. The 6hr was a lower high and was immediately violated with no hesitation. The 3hr and 4hr were higher highs, which we also pushed past. With the current momentum, I'd expect to see a 12hr uptrend here showing up soon. As I sit out of the market, at this point I just hope we rocket up further, even if I'm not apart of it, and get a 12hr and Daily uptrend with no pullback. If we do, at that point we get to be maxed out to the upside. The trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4015 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; With such low volume and no immediate economic condition that justifies these moves, I cannot get into a long position from here. I think this rally is unstable. The Short Position; My most likely will short will be patiently waiting for an additional low volume spike upward above the 12hr and potentially even a Daily uptrend. However, if this upward movement fails and we head back towards 4060 with a lot of momentum, I might short at 4060 to see if we lose the spike from yesterday, with a target of 4000 to jump out at or at least prepare to jump out at if we didn't crash down beneath there. In order to get into this though, I'd have to see the market reacting to the GDP or Jobless release in a rational way, and that rarely happens. My sentiment is (from 4080) The market is confused, so my sentiment is to stay out, honestly. Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
ES! vs ESM contract; Trends divergence; Time for PatienceSo I may stay out of the ES a bit more today. My ES! analysis says we are prime for a movement down, however, my ESM contract says that we are beginning to fail that down movement and could see a bit more upside. I don't like the divergence, and don't remember a time they were this bad, so I have browsed over to other areas to trade. On the ESM it is clear that the 30m/1hr/2hr are at odds with the 3hr/4hr/6hr which have violated the 12hr. When looking at the ES! overlay, we are in clear violation of the 6hr and that is likely why there is such a strong signal for us to come back down. Additionally the lower timeframes that could take us higher at overbought except for the 4hr which will likely hit here shortly and give us very little room for upward movement unless we jump from a 4hr to a 12hr uptrend. So on that note, I am then short on the 6E at 1.0915, which is already looking strong this morning for a bit of a gain, and will potentially remain away from the ES for one more day unless something provides more indication on direction. The pitiful volume has me concerned over the last two days in addition to the diverging signals. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4015 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/24/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; A movement back down to neutral could be a good position to go Long to get back up to this 4030 level. However, I am likely to stay away from this move because I feel that the 3980-4020 level are no trade zones because of the constant indecisiveness of this range. If we get back down, I may go Long as we pass 4020 to see if I can capture upward movement to 4030 and beyond. The Short Position; I may go short at the end of the day today, depending on how things look. Otherwise, if we have a huge spike upward on no volume above 4042, and the micro trend momentum shows the upward move is failing, I will likely snag a short position that I will want to hold overnight and possibly into Friday. Economic Data; Nothing major today. I don't see Pending Home Sales or Crude Oil Inventories having a major impact on price or volume unless there is some major surprise to one side or the other that bleeds into further macroeconomics. My sentiment is; Neutral.... Neutral AF Safe trading! Remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
⚠️ 🔥 Systemic Risks Alert & the 3 De-couplingsThis is long 20 min video. I think i reached the limit as i didn't manage to finish the recording but you will get the point. You better get the point or you might run deadly risks going Long or Short.... I am going to start with the 3 de-couplings: 1. China-US Decoupling 2. Banks - Crypto decoupling 3. Crypto-Indices decoupling I cover all 3 in the video plus i offer my insights on how to approach the trading part (hedge mode is ON). Potential Systemic Risk events: 1. Banks.. not looking good, it's quiet now but willit be under control? 2. Attack on the petrodollar. Will US lose the superpower status? Ask Saudi Arabia 3. War. Will it stay just in Ukraine? Combine it with (2) and it could be bad. Links: thediplomat.com www.middleeastmonitor.com news.sky.com tvpworld.com goldswitzerland.com Allow me to be worried..or if you don't agree with me you might want to agree with Ernest Hemingway: “the first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war” www.forbes.com Stay cool, this is just history in the making. The FXPROFESSOR (Bitcoin sounds like the best option)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by FX_Professor
2
S&P possible sell signal, but trends are mixedSo I hope you enjoyed the calm. I ended up taking my ball and playing elsewhere. I had said I had a strong sell signal on the Nasdaq going into yesterday, and so even when we were up on the day, I went short, and made my entire weekly goal on the Nasdaq. Additionally, I have that Soybean trade from last week I had talked about, and that is up 40 points for another $2000. I bring that up because at $4500 for the week, I have the option to stay out of the S&P ES! contracts for now, and may just do that. We had no new trends form yesterday (yeah, that is how calm it was). We did end on a higher note, but clear had strong resistance trying to go higher and a push down at the end of the day. While we tried to go higher after the close, we then attempted to go lower this morning, and are basically back at break even. The 30m calls for us to go up, but has been violated. The 1hr says we should come down. The 2hr says we can go sideways, the 3/4/6hr say we should be going down, the 12hr says we should go up, and the daily says we are within range and can stay sideways. So yeah... a bit of a mixed bag at the moment. I have a MACD Momentum sell signal appearing TODAY, but keep in mind, that is the current bar and NOT finished. So I won't be trading off of that. All in all, I may sit out for the day. Trends into today (same as yesterday); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4003 Downtrend (3/27/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4002 Uptrend (3/24/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/24/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I mean, I suppose if we get back above that 30m ascending downtrend bar (currently at 4026) I could see some room to the upside. Not sure I'd take that trade though. The Short Position; A good move below 4003 might be an entry point, with stops for profit set if it goes below 4000 at 4002 in the event it fails. If I tried, this is the more likely trade I'll take. Economic Data; CB Consumer Confidence is really the only big deal today. Otherwise I don't expect much, and I'm not sure I expect a lot out of that. My sentiment into today (from 4007); Shorter Term - Neutral/Hint of Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral Yeah, I'm basically neutral on the day. I THINK we might go lower, but I don't know that I have enough to want to take that trade. It is mostly based on where I think the macro economics of the current environment is at, but the market seems to be on a different page than I, because I think given the current conditions and valuations (currently sitting at around 18-20x valuations) we should be around 3850 at the moment. Things are just too expensive given the possible impact on future earnings. Given that, I'm going to mark this as a "Short" idea, although, again I'm about as neutral as I get going into today. But hey, what do I know =) Safe trading! And remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Continue into range bound territory; Enjoy the calmSo being how Friday ended I am not surprised we've seen some premarket momentum to carry that forward. I don't know that I see us exploding higher as the market opens today, but I wouldn't be surprised if we reach 4040 or so. I'm more expecting us to have a move back down towards 4000 shortly after the open, though I do expect today to be mostly a calm day with not a lot going on in the market. If we hadn't shot up in premarket, I'd likely say I thought we would push upwards, but we are already here. Overall the only trend that is unhappy and violated at the moment is the 1hr. So perhaps we see some corrective action to fix that, but overall it is the only trend violated and so I don't think we have to run down to fix it right away. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4003 Downtrend (3/27/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4002 Uptrend (3/24/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/24/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If we dip down somehow below 3980 I might look for an entry point to the upside. With markets mixed right now I would really feel like I want to hold and watch. The only other Long position I might take is if I feel like attempting to scalp the market, which I only do on occasion if I think we are sitting in excessively calm waters. The Short Position; Potentially a movement down below 4010 or so I might try to jump in, just to see if I can carry it below 4000 and cash out around 3980. I feel very cautious about this movement also though, so we shall see how it looks at the time. I additionally might try to scalp a few short positions on micro timeframe overbought areas, but only hold them for 5-10 points or so, and only if I see we are in excessively calm conditions at the moment. Economic Data; As usual, it will be a quiet day on the market data for Monday. GDP is Thursday and PCE is Friday. My sentiment into today (from 4030) is; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral I will mark this as a Short position, just because I am slightly bearish into my excessively neutral sentiment. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Yet again, we nearly max out trends to the downFirst off, I just want to say... My 6E (Euro/USD) call was my money maker this morning. I didn't go in overnight, but when I woke up I immediately saw the draw down in the 6E and hopped in. I made about $800 off that, and got out, though I think it could definitely be headed for some more downward movement. However, the S&P Futures is my bread and butter, so I decided not to distract myself further with that and get to work. With the volatility of yesterday and this recent down move, we have trends signals on the downside. Currently on the ESM contract, the 4hr is signaling a downtrend and will finish here at 9am EST. Unless we have a major move upward, I expect that bar to finish off with this downtrend signal. The ES! overlay contract has the same 4hr downtrend bar forming, but additionally has a potential 6hr downtrend signal, the last downtrend signal it has left. The ESM contract never provided a 6hr uptrend, so that signal is only on the ES! contract because of the price difference between contracts. Once the 4hr bar finalizes, I'll be looking to see if the momentum wants to carry down until 13:00 EST to finalize the 6hr downtrend on the ES!, at which point I'll be looking for a Long position by then. However, I might look for initial long positions at 9 EST based on the ESM contract. Prime scenario, is that at 9 EST I'm able to get a good Long position, cash out, the market drops again until 13:00 EST to also get the 6hr downtrend, I go long again, and double my profit. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3973 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3968 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 3971 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I believe I explained that above, but looking for this movement down to simmer and rally back up, at least briefly, at around 9am EST. If it doesn't, I'd be looking for a rally up at 13:00 EST. The Short Position; If we rally up without grabbing the trends we are signaling, or if there is a rally at 9am EST that looks like it will falter, I may look for a short position back down to get a 6hr downtrend mark. This is a riskier approach from my analysis, and I may avoid this position. Economic Data; Durable Goods is today and some manufacturing PMI. I'm still waiting for the strong labor market of yesterday to be priced in, which with this down move, appears to be happening this morning. My sentiment on the day from the current position of 3940 is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Long Term -Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
3
Trends somewhat mixed, but momentum signals more downsideOne thing I forgot to mention on the video was the low volume from yesterday. FOMC decision days tend to have a higher volume than 1.7 million. That has also left me a bit cautious the downward move may not stick. If it is going to stick, I'd expect some continued downward motion with higher volume and more conviction. Overall, trends on the 1hr/2hr are calling for upward movement (and have thus far shown that) but the 30m/3hr call for us to head lower. Additionally, the 4hr and 6hr previous trends that didn't signal on that downward move, and above, are also calling for lower moves, whereas the 12hr has been violated and will want to see upward movement and the Daily is basically neutral with where we are. So I can't say the trends are giving an extremely clear direction, so I look to a more fundamental which is price action and the lack of bounce into the end of yesterday's session. While we have seen a bounce overnight, I still think we could see some follow through into today, especially in fragile areas like Financials. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 3971 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low There is still some inconsistency between the ES! and ESM contracts, noted in the * marks. The Long Position; Failure to break below the 1hr/2hr could signal a buy in situation for a continuation of the rally we've been having this week so far. I'll be looking for micro timeframes (3200 tick, 5m, 15m) to begin showing an uptrend momentum change if I'm going to try and get into that position, especially after the downward move that ended us yesterday. The Short Position; I'm currently short at 4020. I'd like to see us break below the 3960 level (ESM Daily ascending higher low downtrend line) and see some of the ES! trends fall back in line with the ESM trends. This is my preferred situation. If I wasn't short already, or if for some reason I cash out, I'll be looking for an uptrend on the 30m which will likely be a lower high as a renewed entry point to the low. Economic Data; BoE has their rate decision in just a few moments. I think it could cause some impact in the premarket trading here. Additionally, jobs numbers are due this morning, currently expected to show strong labor market data. A surprise to either side really could send the market in either direction, with strong labor market showing recession resilience but continued inflation risks, and a weakening labor market showing a recession looming, but less inflationary wage pressure. So trade that as you see fit (or follow along the rest of the market like I try to do). My sentiment into today (from 3990) Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term -Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends still could allow some upward movement; However, FED DayI've said it a dozen times... remember that nothing annihilates a technical analysis like key Economic Data. So with that, at 2pm EST, it is the interest rate decision, though really I think it'll be the forward guidance that drives the market up or down. The last time we heard Jerome Powell talk (during his Congressional Hearing) he was rather Hawkish and discussing raising the target interest rate expectations as inflation is just not coming down as much as they had hoped. Then we had the banking crisis, which has now in terms of stock valuation fully recovered and if the current trajectory continues will actually be HIGHER than prior to the issue. It certainly appears that risk appetite is in full hunger mode. I am stll sitting in a short at 4019. In hindsight I should have set a profit stop once we got well below it yesterday, but did not. If we end up higher on the day with more room for upward movement I may take my loss on that one. I did get profit stopped out of my 6E trade, but continue to believe that is set for a reversal move back down. I may take a day off of trading that one though. Either way, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4027 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3977 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High* 4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Keep in mind that these trends are along the ESM from the 4 hour and below. So the discrepancies between the ES! overlay and ESM specifically are annotated in an * The Long Position; Currently I don't have much in terms of a long position sentiment. I think we've gone up too much, too quickly, on low volume. I can't say I'd find a reason to go long at this point, unless the FOMC comes out extremely Dovish and talks about cutting rates, which I don't foresee happening with the increased inflation pressure and appearance of a full recovery of the financial system. The Short Position; On a technical level we should at LEAST be having a calm, small whipsaw day, but with the FOMC coming out I don't see that happening, so the technical analysis says we should at least have a down day if we go one direction or the other. Additionally, if Powell comes out hawkish it could really send the market spinning back down after way to much upward risk appetite. Economic Data; It's a Fed Day, and includes forward projections, so 2pm EST is going to be huge. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral Remember your risk management plan, be careful trading into the FOMC decision, and safe trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
$NASDAQ $QQQ $SPY closed near key resistance, FOMC 2pm EST- NASDAQ QQQ and SPY closed near resistance QQQ im looking at $311 daily time frame triple top. - FOMC 25BPS tomorrow 80% chance, need to see in Powell's speech if this is our last hike or we get a pause, also information on the banking situation too. - XLF is going to be key factor tomorrow for SPY's direction, went completely sideways today will break strongly in a direction tomorrow. - i am slightly bearish here since we are right at key resistance but FOMC can change that in an instant, for ex we get a pause after this hike then we are very likely breaking that resistance if that happens i am bullish and going long.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ArcadiaTrading
Recession has become the Bull Case? Trends into 3/21/2023So I went short this morning at 4019 based on a MACD data plot on the ESM contracts. The buy zone on a data plot was 3948, and I feel like that really followed through into today, where my sell plot was to be at 4019. I had a short preset overnight and it struck early this morning. As far as trends, we are beginning to hit a lot of higher timeframe uptrends that are all lower highs, so even if we are going to head higher, I see us hitting some resistance here on a regular basis. We just got a lower high 3hr Uptrend at 4008, and we are currently signaling a 4hr uptrend depending on where we close here by 9am EST. Those trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3959 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3977 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Key notations, the 4047 is in an uptrend on the ES! overlay, though it is only just now signaling on the ESM. The 6hr is in an uptrend on the ES! overlay as well (lower high) but has not signaled on the ESM contract specifically. The Long Position; I don't have a Long Position up here at above 4010. If we drop down to around 3950, I might potentially look at reverse my current position (Short) to see if we come back up. Depends on how it looks. The Short Position; I'm currently in a short position at 4019 to hold down to around 3950. If we falter and I bail on this before 3950, I'll likely keep shorting if we come up to this 4019 level over and over again. Economic Data; Some housing sales stuff today, but I don't see that having a major impact on the market. I still think this market is prime to potentially head lower with no positive Macroeconomic environment really out there right now. My sentiment into today (from 4019) Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
ES! vs ESM contract trends differ; Patience is paramount againI wanna make some breakfast so I'll keep the write up short. I'm out of the market at the moment, and my overall sentiment is very neutral. The ES! contract overaly has a bit of room for us to head further south, however the ESM contract has that anything towards 3900 is going to come back up. I'll be watching for the potential of both. Overall the market sentiment is more Bullish than Bearish, but there is enough doom and gloom to break that mental barrier at any moment. The trends into today (On the ESM); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3983 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3963 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 3949 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Lower Low* 3Hr - 4047* Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The * signifies the discrepancies between the ES! and ESM. We are in a Higher Low for the 2hr on the ES!, we just got a new lower low on the 3hr in the ES!, and we are currently in an uptrend on the 4hr on the ES!. Currently I'm still mostly following the ESM specifically, because the price doesn't have the gap to throw off the math and analysis. The Long Position; If we get low towards 3900 and I don't see a meltdown occurring, I'll be looking for a nice Long position. While investors are dumping financial stocks, they are picking up in tech stocks. The Short Position; I'll be looking for any indication that the general gloom of the market is taking over, and we are heading back down into 3800 territory, or a good spot to grab a short to head down towards low 3900s again to prepare for a Long Position swap. Economic Data; There is no impactful data today. Legarde speaks twice today and once tomorrow, so I'd watch for how that impacts things. Wednesday is Fed Day, so I expect that is where most of the focus will be on. My sentiment; I'm very neutral across the board at the moment. Maybe I'll have a different feel as things go. These are those moments where patience is key. If you followed along, you're aware I made close to $25,000 last week, so there is ZERO reason for me to rush into a position to try and make some money this week. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
4
Upward movement is hitting resistant Trends; Beware the WitchingSo I had taken a small profit last night on 3997 short and then reengaged at 4000 where I had wanted to get in at to begin with. I had set an overnight cash out at 3968 based on the 1hr trendlines and while driving home today, totally forgot it was still set and it cashed me out of my short position for a profit of $1600. I'm not upset about it, but I likely would still be holding that position if that hadn't happened. I did not just jump back into the market at that point, and figured I'd take the time to sit back and analyze things. Given the high profit week I've had (I believe I'm close to around $20,000 but I'd have to check) I might just take the rest of the day off. Anyways, there is some conflict in the trends depending on if I am looking at the ES contract overlay or specifically the ESM contract we are working inside right now. The ES overlay had a 2hr uptrend that came in at a higher high, whereas the 2hr hitting at the same spot on the ESM is a lower high. Also, the ES overlay had the 3hr and 4hr also go into an uptrend, whereas the ESM contract did not have those trend changes. It leaves be a bit conflicted on my short position, but overall my sentiment is still bearish on today's market. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3983 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3963 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 3987 Uptrend (3/16/2023) Lower High* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low* 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low* 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Be aware the 1hr Downtrend stuck after I finished the video and is therefore more up to date in this write up. The Long Position; If I see a significant pull up towards the 4000 level and into positive territory, I may briefly go into a long position until I see the 3hr/4hr uptrends come in on the ESM contract. I don't know that I want to go Long here and attempt to catch this falling knife. The Short Position; Any pullback upwards that doesn't show a lot of bullish commitment where likely be another entry point to get in on a considerable move downward, likely back towards at least 3900. I think the rally in the Nasdaq will lose some of the push and a continue confidence loss in the financial sector and energy sector could really hurt the market today. This is my more likely scenario. Economic Data; Europe posted some really bad CPI data. Though surprisingly it did very little to the market overall. Otherwise, the US has some Michigan data coming out, such as consumer expectations, that could cause a ruckus at around 10am EST. My Sentiment into Today (from 3965) Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral I will make this as a "Short" idea today, because I believe that we end with a down day, and likely lower than 3965. Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Trends maxed to the downside; However direction unclearI don't have as much confidence in a direction today as I've had the last few days, sorry. No overnight trades for me and while I want to go Long here, I'm not so sure this is the area I want to try for a long position. Ultimately, with the money I've made the last 3 days, I think it might be a good day to sit out for me unless I see something of tremendous opportunity. I do have a Buy signal on the MACD Momentum chart, but that is for this current day, which means it is a signal in development and not for sure. If it holds and we have a down day, then I may buy in at the close of the session for tomorrow, but that doesn't help me today. Overall, at best assessment, I think we have a whipsaw day and end right around +\- 10 or even zero. I'd say that might happen without much movement, but we do have jobless claims in the next hour, so I expect some market reaction on that initially. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3919 Downtrend (3/16/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3921 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I think we are currently in a potential Long position at 3910, I just don't feel the ends justify the risk, as I see it pulling back up at least above the 30m trend line which is only like 3918. The Short Position; For me to decide I want to go short, I'd have to see a 30m/1hr/2hr lower high uptrend mark. I don't know that the 30m will give us that if we rally from here, and the 1hr has to come in below 3948. Not sure that happens this morning without a big push down first. Economic Data; Jobless data comes out. As well as some building permits and Philly Manufacturing Data. Jobless data is likely the biggest thing unless something shocks outside of expectations. I'll be interested to see where the 8:30 movement takes us. My overall sentiment (from 3912); Shorter Term - Hint of Bullish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Basically the market is either looking to turn trends around to head further up, or consolidating and trying to catch a few lower timeframe trends to take this market further down. I know that doesn't help with a direction from today, but that is my sentiment. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan. I am marking this Long, as I think we jump back up to above 3920 from this 3912 range, and that if we end with a low day that I think tomorrow is a rally day.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
After the morning plummet, outlook is hard to seeSo I went short last night at 3961 believing that the late day surge was illogical. In fact, I didn't go on a tangent in the video, but many news articles said "Inflation is cooling and markets are surging". That is a downright lie, and why you need to understand Economic Data and find things yourself. CPI INCREASED from .4% to .5%, which isn't a major jump, but certainly doesn't show things going down. I've cashed out this morning already at 3880 for $4000 when we hit a 2% drop on the day in just an hour. My analysis says we should head back up now, but I've held off going Long at this point as while the technical analysis says we should bounce, this Credit Suisse continuation of financial collapse fears came with a vengeance. Honestly, at over $10k for the week now, I really might just sit out today and let fear vs analysis work itself out unless I see a fantastic entry point. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3935 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3921 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; The current area is already a decent entry point (3880ish). Any more movement down without some supporting information is likely to garner even more confidence of a pop back up to at least the level of 3913-3922. The Short Position; I don't really have an analysis that would cause me to go short again from here (3880). I'd have to see us rally back up and get at least a 30m uptrend mark and hold onto more potential for a downside here to get involved in a short. I'll update later, but at this time there is not much that would cause me to snag a short this low on the day already. Economic Data; PPI and Retail Sales is today. It might give some insight into the FOMC hiking rates or pausing to try and heal this financial crisis issue that has surfaced. My sentiment into today (from 3880); Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral I want to dive into the belief we are heading towards those October lows, but I think there is just too much sentiment at the moment for us to get below 3800, and the technical analysis doesn't support any strong pushes down just yet. Safe trading, and remember your risk management! I am marking this as a "Long", as while I think we will end up negative on the day, I think we head up above this level of 3880.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
1
Trends still maxed to the downside; but CPI data incomingSo, after crushing a $5000+ day yesterday I will unlikely trade into the CPI data this morning. Ultimately the market environment could certainly take us lower, but the market analysis says we have to go higher. Likely the cause of a massive volume day yesterday at nearly 3.5 million. Although, we are around 25 points higher this morning so far, so we could head lower if we begin to see some trends pop up here and the upward movement fail. I want to point out that while the trends indicate the 2hr is a higher low, that is only on the M contract, and if I merged the K Contract into the M Contract we had gotten a brief 2hr uptrend and then bottomed at a 2hr downtrend yesterday. I'll likely merge the two contracts together here at the end of this week, but the huge gap in price between the two contracts can really throw off the shorter timeframes. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3916 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3886 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low So again, you can see we are still maxed out to the downside. The Long Position; Any pump to the downside is likely to reverse to at least a neutral area. Being that I can sit out if I choose to because my profit is high for the week already, this will likely be my more immediate stance. Additionally, if it Economic Data comes in to skyrocket us and runaway to the upside, I might jump in for a small piece of that if I see a good entry point. The Short Position; If we begin to see the 30m/1hr uptrends, I'll be looking to see if the momentum is failing and jump into a short position there, likely trying to ride a 1hr uptrend to a 30m downtrend at least. I'm less likely to get involved in this though, and if I do I'm unlikely to hold this position for more than some daily gains. Economic Data; CPI Print is today. It will likely either cause some reversing action and a rally in the financials, or more fighting over the potential for a rally vs where we should go with economic data if things look bleak. My sentiment going into today (from 3920ish) Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral I'm going to mark this as a "Long" position, only because I'm likely to attempt to buy any dips with expectations of coming back up to the 3913ish level.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
4