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Market Forecast: The Week Ahead in ES, NQ, RTY, and 10 YRIn this video, I provide an in-depth market forecast for the week ahead in the ES (S&P 500 E-mini), NQ (Nasdaq E-mini), RTY (Russell 2000 Index), and 10 YR (10-Year Treasury Note) markets. I am using a few key technical indicators and market trends to give you valuable insights into potential price movements and trading opportunities. Indicators used in this video are Bollinger Bands (20,3), Beacon Indicator, Anchored VWAP's, and the 5 day Simple Moving Average.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by anthonycrudele
Trends heading into the FOMC Rate DecisionOverheated market trends showing a bull market is basically my findings. I have not held into positions, long or short, going into this last surge. I had a relatively promising month in January and decided I would just end it on that note. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4925 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 4933 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Higher Low 2Hr - 4925 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Higher Low 3Hr - 4954 Uptrend (1/29/2024) Higher High 4Hr - 4829 Uptrend (1/19/2024) Higher High 6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 4848 Uptrend (1/19/2024) Higher High Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High As explained, that 30m is showing the first sign of weakness for this surge to come back at all. Additionally, I read a report with Dow Jones Newswires that most of the insider trading lately has been little to no buying and lots of selling. Basically that means that members with stocks in their own companies are taking profits and not investing further into their company. I wouldn't take this as a sign that they think their company is in trouble, but more as a sign that they feel their stocks are overvalued and it is profitable to sell now and repurchase later. Economic Data today is going to the FED Meeting Minutes and the subsequent statement by Jerome Powell. I don't foresee, nor does the market, of any interest rate movement today. Geopolitical tensions continue to worsen in the Middle East. The latest is a Drone strike in Jordan that killed 3 US Servicemembers. I've been very surprised that the market has not priced in any sort of issues coming from the Israel/Hamas conflict or any of the tensions and skirmish fighting in the surrounding area. Overall, I see a huge threat to potential inflationary pressure disrupting this upward movement in the long term. Not some sort of pressure that would take us to a surge in inflation back to 9% like we were, but certainly not allowing us to reach a 2% target rate and having some minor upward movement instead of continuing the downtrend we have seen over the last year. Overall, my sentiment is fairly neutral. While I had held a bullish sentiment with spots of bearish profit taking before, I see overall a neutral movement from here, as my estimate for our top over this year was to be 5000 and we've almost reached that already.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends heading into a conflict area; Other factors in reviewSo I chose to cash out my trade at 4760 for about $2250. Trends have a huge case to send us lower, especially if the 6hour keeps signaling lower. All the trends between 30m and 4hr are ALL in a lower low downtrend at the moment. The trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4778 Downtrend (1/17/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 4761 Downtrend (1/17/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 4777 Downtrend (1/8/2024) Lower Low 6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 4762 Downtrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High **Note - The 1hr was signaling during the video, it did solidify since so I included the updated in this brief. That will put the 30m to 6hr downtrends against the 12hr violated uptrend, and pending daily higher low uptrend as well once it signals. As I explain in the video, I see the potential of a conflict zone here, and given my significant profit for the month already, I will likely look elsewhere for additional trades for the moment. Other things to look at- Earnings; We are in Earnings season. Mostly banks this week. They have been mixed overall. Next week is a much bigger week with Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla, and more reporting. To note, there has not been a negative earnings season overall yet recently, even during the bear market of 2022 into 2023. Economic Data; Fed Waller spoke about small and few rate cuts, that the market is overly optimistic in the view of how many cuts they expect, and the retail sales data today supports the FOMC ability to choose not to cut rates until they feel very confident inflation is down and will stay that way. Geopolitical; Tension in the Middle East continues to rise, so I'd keep having an eye on that. If oil prices surge (they haven't, in spite of attempts by OPEC to make them and general sentiment they will) that will bleed back into inflationary pressure. My overall sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/slight bullish Long Term - Bullish My ZM contracts were stopped out today unfortunately, as I picked up December contracts that didn't nearly pop up like the other ZM contracts of 2024, so I am on the hunt for other potential investments for the moment. Many of those are currency exchanges such as 6J, 6A, and potentially the 6E again if it drops a bit more. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends to finish this week and into next weekStill sitting short at 4805, at the time of recording I was slightly in the negative, but since we have pulled back down as expected and I'm in a profit zone. The trends are well explained in the video, but most important takeaway is that a new 4hr downtrend coming in below 4808 will signal a lower low, as will a 6hr downtrend coming in below 4759. These two movements would open us up, in accordance with trends, to further movement down. Trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4817 Uptrend (1/12/2024) Higher High 1Hr - 4807 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Higher Low 2Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 4770 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Lower High 6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 4762 Downtrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Economic Data; PPI is today, I don't see it have a major weight into the market though as we had CPI, which weighs more heavily, yesterday. Geopolitical; US and British forces hit Houthi targets, furthering tensions in the Middle East. This is why Oil has rocketed up 4% thus far on the day. The higher oil goes, the more that price could bleed into inflation, and also the tension could cause some concern for supply-chain issues. Side Note; I did go Long on two ZMZ24 (Soybean Meal for December maturity) contracts yesterday at 360. I plan to hold until around 370 and evaluate further to see if they will reach the 'predicted' target of 401. I do not trade Soybean products often, it is more of a oversold historically position than a knowledge of how Soybeans work. My sentiment going forward in the ES Futures Market is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral Long Term - Bullish Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Market Trending Up, but what about longer trends?Hey everyone! Sorry for being away for a bit, while we did follow my red graph down and I had shorted into some of that, I did not feel comfortable following it back up and went over to trade several 6E contracts instead. Not sure the income difference was much, but it felt like a safer trade following long term valuation of the Euro than hoping stocks regain levels never until the pandemic. Full disclosure, I closed out my 6E contracts towards the end of Tuesday, and am sitting in NO current position right now, so it is easy for me to talk about the market with no skin in the game. That being said, let's dive into things. Here are the trends as we are in the middle of today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESZ Contract) 30m - 4524 Uptrend (11/16/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4391 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4412 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4412 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4424 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4260 Uptrend (11/1/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4319 Uptrend (11/2/2023) Lower High Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4244 Downtrend (10/16/2023) Lower Low On a short term and medium-term basis, things are very much trending upward. Based on the short sentiment in the market, I think we won't push too much higher, and could even run back down to around 4420ish as I think lots of people went short going into Tuesday's CPI data and are going to be holding their positions to try and minimalize their losses if they didn't practice good risk management. I go into a concern on this upward movement in the video, but ultimately I am concerned that we had our first lower low downtrend EVER on a Weekly analysis for trends. I'm not saying that it will take us lower, I am saying it has never happened before. Every downtrend signal we ever had prior has always been a higher low downtrend. As long as we stay above 4462 when the last uptrend signaled (week of June 6, 2023) we are above and looking to signal a higher high uptrend, but anything below that to me shows we could be headed into a sideways or even long term downtrend market for the first time ever. Or... like I said it has never happened so maybe it means nothing, as there is no historical data to look at. My current outlook is; I just plan to sit and watch for potentially the rest of this week and maybe decide Monday on a position, unless I take a short term trade for just over Friday but will likely close out before the weekend. I may even continue to look for other areas of the market to invest in. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
6
Unlocking Trend Reversals: Mastering Bollinger Bands and VWAPsIn this comprehensive video tutorial, we will delve into the powerful techniques of utilizing Bollinger Bands and VWAPs (Volume Weighted Average Prices) to identify and master trend reversals in the futures market. ES1! You will learn how to leverage these volatility-based indicators to detect potential turning points in price trends. By understanding Bollinger Bands' ability to highlight periods of market consolidation and expansion, you will gain an edge in predicting trend shifts and take advantage of profitable opportunities. Additionally, we will explore the significance of VWAPs, an essential tool for analyzing price and volume dynamics. By combining volume-weighted prices with Bollinger Bands, you will be equipped with a comprehensive approach to assess market liquidity, support, and resistance levels. Throughout this tutorial, I provide step-by-step guidance to effectively interpret the signals generated by Bollinger Bands and VWAPs, empowering you to make informed trading decisions. We will also address common misconceptions that can often lead to misinterpretations and false signals. Whether you are a seasoned trader seeking to refine your strategy or a beginner eager to grasp these technical indicators, this video is designed to provide valuable insights and practical knowledge that can elevate your trading outcomes.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by anthonycrudele
7
SPY SPX NASDAQ S&P500 ES are not going to dumpA "head and shoulders" pattern is a technical analysis chart pattern that can indicate a potential reversal in a stock's price trend. It consists of three peaks: a higher peak (the head) between two lower peaks (the shoulders). The pattern suggests a potential shift from an upward trend to a downward trend. However, the effectiveness of technical patterns like head and shoulders can vary, and they don't always accurately predict market movements. Market behavior is influenced by a multitude of factors including economic indicators, company performance, geopolitical events, investor sentiment, and more. "Complex correction" typically refers to a more intricate and prolonged market correction, which is a decline in stock prices from recent highs. Corrections are a natural part of market cycles and can be caused by various factors like overvaluation, economic downturns, or other negative events. It's important to note that making accurate predictions about market movements is extremely challenging, even for experts. If you're considering investing or making financial decisions, it's advisable to do thorough research, consider a diversified approach, and consult with financial professionals who can provide tailored advice based on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance.
SP:SPX
by EIP-EverythingIsPlanned
Still sitting out, but wanted to check in!Hey all! Made a quick video to look at the market and just check in. I'm still enjoying my self made vacation and taking time away from the market while I think it is overinflated, as I want to see some normality come back in before I feel comfortable trading again. However, just wanted to say hello, explain what I'm waiting for, and wish everyone else best of trading if you're still in the daily grind! Safe Trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Extreme Greed and Overheated Market; Time to Walk AwaySo while I've had some gains on this market, especially below the 4300 range, at this point I cannot explain where this extreme level of optimism and risk taking behavior is coming from and I think it is time for me to walk away. While I can agree we are in a Bull Market, and I do not think at this point that we will be visiting the lows of 2022 without some major global catastrophe, I cannot get into any more movement upwards, and yet at the same time, I have decided continuing to try and catch the thrown knife is just going to lead to more issues for me. I MIGHT go Short at 4500, since 4500 is the highest projection for 2023 from ANY market and economic viewpoint, but even that just doesn't feel promising enough to mess with any of this. I've no idea what this rally is attached to other than AI excitement. The Forward Earnings of some companies are running at over 200x which is just absolute lunacy. So, all things being said, at this point I am walking away, and likely will continue to walk away until we drop back to may 4350 or so, and see if some of the excessive money into the FANG+ drops out and begins to get into a wider investment sentiment into the market. Safe trading if you stay in this, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
CPI Headline down; Core flatlined; Markets continue to soarSo we ran along the 30m uptrending line yesterday, and keep nearing striking the 6hr insanely steep ascending trendline I didn't think we could maintain. Much to my dismay, I am sitting in my negative trade. I may soon just eat a loss, which will cause me to take a day off as per my risk management plan. Luckily at the moment I did go Long yesterday in a couple 6E contracts and it has me up around the same amount I've been losing on the ES contract I have. I still hold out that I think we need to find a leg down, even if just briefly to around 4200, which is crazy at this point that 4200 so quickly became a potential support line. The FANG stocks are just barely shy of their highest trading prices ever, and will be there by today or tomorrow at the current growth rate we've been seeing. I understand the trends keep calling for upward movement, but I am definitely just baffled by how optimistic we seem to be and the sky rocketing valuations we are dealing with as a market index. The growth in the IT sector is over 30% already year to date. The current expectation is absolutely no slowing in growth this year, that none of the monetary tightening is going to impact anything, and that the world is moving forward without any risk. I suppose I am just entirely too cautious to get behind such a narrative at the moment. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract) 30m - 4389 Downtrend (6/13/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend Weekly - None Economic Data; As I said, CPI data came in, headline is down, but core inflation is mostly flat. Tomorrow is FOMC Rate day, so more fun to come! My sentiment overall is; WTF... I have nothing else haha Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
1
Trends maxed to upside; New Contract Trends; Overbought statusSo I have some other catching up to do, but currently it appears the ESU contract is now here, and as I've said over the last few weeks, I felt that the ESM contract was clearly going to be an upward moving contract, and that any leg down would be over the next contract. I continue to comment that with the major price gains on major tech stocks, if investors don't sell these stocks they haven't capitalized on the movement up... so there needs to be a sell off to capitalize on profit. Now that the next contract is here, because of the previous moves it is starting at 100 MFI overbought status on a weekly basis. So overall, while I'm not in bear mode, I see the next 3 months at least being relatively flat, with a leg down first before we decide if we come back up here or not. I think we will see the Fed monetary policy begin to hit the economy over the next 3 months, and additionally many major investment companies are likely to move away from active monitoring like they do most summers and retail investors could drive the prices down since there is a predominantly short position going into this summer period. Trends into today (Only /ESU23 contract); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract) 30m - 4363 Uptrend (6/12/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend Weekly - None The Long Position; Basically we can keep running the narrative that buy any minor dip. I'd say if things dip down to 4300 there would likely be a pullback up briefly, but I am trading with the expectation we need a leg down. The Short Position; Since we are maxed out to the uptrend, I see anything above 4363 as a entry point to the downside. I obviously believe this enough that I am actively short on this trade. Economic Data; Nothing today really. However, CPI is tomorrow, PPI is Wednesday, FOMC rate and statement is Wednesday, and jobs numbers on Thursday. Overall it should be an active week. I expect Powell it come across slightly hawkish to try and calm the market, since the massive jump in the market could ultimately undermine some of the monetary tightening they are attempting to do here. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Bullish/Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends call for some upward movement; Conditions still flatSo I'm Long again in the ES from 4180 at the 6hr Higher Low downtrend point. I'm looking to see if we can get a 30m or even a 1hr uptrend and then I will likely cash out. I've an issue with the excessive upward slope of the 6hr, so I am currently looking at it as unreliable, but maybe over the next few weeks we will see a strong swing upward. This flat market (especially on a Weekly Analysis) is difficult to trade in, and I find it difficult to see things opening up room to the upside. The Market is still primarily being held up by the top companies and P/E forward earning ratios are just excessive in those companies. NVidia is trading at 175x Forward Earnings. I mean I get that the company has a good forward projection, but 175x Forward Earnings?! Anyways, Trends into today (Note... I realized in the video I had accidentally updated them to Lower High's... I've corrected them they are Higher Low's as they are all in downtrends) Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4219 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4219 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4207 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4204 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4194 Downtrend (5/31/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4182 Downtrend (5/31/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4224 Uptrend (5/28/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If we fall below the 6hr line and then push back above, I'd see that as a potential entry point. That or if we fall today and hit a 12hr higher low. I don't see the floor falling out underneath us just yet, so any dip may be an entry point briefly for an upward push towards mid day like we've seen over and over. The Short Position; A strong push below the 6hr ascending line, currently at about 4192, could be a strong move to get a 12hr downtrend at least. Additionally, if we see upward movement and get a 30m/1hr uptrend, it may be an entry point to the downside. Economic Data; Jobs data and Manufacturing data today. Usually has some impact though I feel we've become fairly immune to the jobs data at this point. Bigger data points I think will be tomorrow. My Sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight bullish Long Term - Neutral/Reluctantly Bullish Safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader