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Trends beginning to signal some potential support; Earnings AMCSo I'm currently running two shorts, one on the ES! and one on the 6E. I attempted both a Long and Short yesterday, and both were profit stopped for $100, so after only making HKEX:200 yesterday, I waited until the close and then went short on the market into today, ready to bail if the S&P decides to shake off the movement down... again... and rally into the open and throughout the day. The trends definitely are showing the potential for a brief support rally here, with the 2hr/3hr/4hr all violated and wanting to pull the market back up, and the 30m movements that were heading lower now appearing to be calling for price to come back up also. Currently I expect to see a 1hr downtrend, and that lost 6hr downtrend, but will then evaluate if I want to maintain my short position or briefly look for a retracement back up, even if I think ultimately we head down lower. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4142 Downtrend (4/24/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4155 Uptrend (4/24/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If we move lower to a 1hr and/or 6hr downtrend, I really may switch my position briefly if the movement appears to fizzle to a long position, at least to snag a 30m/1hr/2hr uptrend movement. Otherwise, I'm not sure that today I expect us to push back above 4160 and make any new highs from the last couple of days. The Short Position; I'm in my short position already, but if I wasn't, I might look at an entry point around 4155. Additionally, if I decide to bail because of a mid day rally, that may be my re-entry point into a short position. Economic Data; CB Consumer Confidence comes in today. I am interested to see how this comes out along expectations. I may glance at home sales also just to see where the overall feelings of the "American Dream" are going. Earnings; Major players with earnings today. I went over several, but many of the biggest ones are AMC, so I expect a massive move after the US Markets close but before the Future contracts pause that will continue overnight. Geopolitical; It appears that Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again also, and the Sudanese events are likely to cause more instability in the world. Overall, the ESM contract has done nothing but go upward since it was released, and I expect it to release some of the gains it has gathered before it resolves in the beginning of June. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - I'm just going to go with Neutral at the moment. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends heading into the biggest Earnings week of Earnings SeasonMajor earnings are coming in this week, although not today. Coca Cola was the only major company to report today, and they beat earnings expectations by basically acknowledging they just passed price hikes in production to the consumer. With the bigger Earnings of Google and Microsoft tomorrow, then Amazon and Meta later in the week, I expect tomorrow to begin real price action and today to be somewhat slow. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4151 Uptrend (4/24/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4149 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low We seem to be continuing to movement down on the 30m trend for now, any movement back under that trend will be a potential entry point for me. The Long Position; I'm not sure what would cause it, but a strong push up to and past 4160 may be a potential entry point for a Long position, at least to 4180. The Short Position; I'm looking for signs the momentum is getting read to run us down again, likely here around 4150. I will then hold into that short to see if we can break into, and past the 4130 range. Economic Data; Nothing I see as important today. Earnings; As I said, on KO (Coca Cola) today. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral, slight bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - I don't know still... beallish? Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Direction unclear; Patiently waitingSo I did dip out yesterday where I said I would, did not get back into the second wave down, and ended with making my weekly goal of $2500. Looking at today, I feel the market is giving off a lot of indecision, and so I've decided to continue with my sentiment, and will likely just sit out today altogether. The trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4138 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4149 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The major change was the 30m has really increased the descent of the lower low trendline. Otherwise mostly unchanged from yesterday. The Long Position; Any dip continues to be gobbled up and a rally come in by mid day. I could see this continuing. The Short Position; Overall the market appears to be trying to head lower, so any move into positive territory and any mid day rally could be a position to enter short for the next step down. The steps are slow though, so beware. Economic Data; Not much Earnings; PG, but otherwise not anything major. My Sentiment; Enjoy the day off Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends beginning to turn to the downside; I expect moreSo I am yet again short at 4180. I've made my weekly goal at this point, and if things rally again back up to 4160 I'll likely just cash out, take my weekly HKEX:2500 quota, and sit out this week. However, trends are beginning to show that dip backwards, even if currently it is only the lower timeframes of the 30m and 1hr. We got lower highs and lower lows off both. This does however, leave the 2hr, 3hr, and 4hr (just barely and only just recently) violated. I expect to see a 6hr downtrend today, and then likely some potential movement back up around that area. However, if it blows past that point, I'll likely try to ride it down as best as possible. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4159 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4149 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Again, any dip so far has been bought up. I think that mentality is going to weaken as we go, but there is a potential bounce at any moment. A decent entry point could be at a 6hr downtrend mark, or likely around 4120ish. The Short Position; I'm in the short position. If you didn't go short, I'm not sure where I'd feel comfortable in, except MAYBE a 30m uptrend mark, which would probably hit around 4160 or so. Ironically, that is the same area I would take profit and exit... so yeah. The market has lately had a hard time with a downside follow through, so I don't know that I would jump in as a short on a FOMO downslide. Economic Data; We have jobs data today. Should be important, but it has been really mixed in terms of how it has been traded. Earnings; Tesla came in poorly yesterday, and the stock shows that. Many of the major ones today have been mixed, with some beatings earnings but missing revenue, or vice versa. I checked AT&T, and that was the same mixed review there. Geopolitical Issue; I forgot to mention in the video... Janet Yellen is speaking today, the Treasury Secretary. Not sure if she has an angle, or misses the spotlight lately as she really seems to want to push herself into relevancy lately, but she apparently wants to discuss China and National Security and outlining the need to sacrifice economically to safeguard against China's influence. Additionally, it appears that the US dollar may be regaining some of it's strength across the spectrum, except against gold. My sentiment into today is (From 4150ish); Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - ............ Very conflcted here. I don't know. To continue to share potential sell signals... though again realize I'm only trading on the S&P at the moment... /VX is the only buy signal (yes, there is a future contract for the VIX) Sell signals include the /ES (You're here), the /NQ (Nasdaq), Australian/Mexican/Canadian currencies (/6A, /6M, /6C respectively), the /RTY (Russell 2000), and /HG (Copper). Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Potential for corrective action in the market againSo after sitting out yesterday, I am short yet again today at 4180. I am looking for some continued downward movement now that we are developing some downtrends, and then I expect the potential of a brief bounce back up. If this is the end of this rally, basically I want to see a good 60 points drop, a 30 point rebound, and then another move back to meet new lows. That sort of mood will give us lower highs and lower lows on shorter timeframes that will paint the picture of us heading lower. If we get a move lower, to say, the 6hr downtrend and then rally back up here, I believe the market will ultimately head into 4200 territory. The violated 6hr trend needs to be corrected for us to head higher at this point. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4171 Downtrend (4/18/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4170 Downtrend (4/18/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Yet again, if you feel the market is heading higher, than any dip is a buy zone. I MIGHT go long if we get a 6hr downtrend, although at this point I think if my short gets that profitable I will just cash out and call it a week. A move back up above 4180 may also be an area to go Long and expect us to hit 4200 there, though I would like to see a bit more of a brief downward move before that happens. The Short Position; I had said that the peak yesterday was probably a good short, and while I didn't get into it, it appears it was. I went short a little lower at 4180, and I expect the down momentum to not fizzle completely today. I would use caution on jumping into a short at this point though, as shorter timeframes will go into oversold, and especially if the open ends lower, people who incorrectly utilize MFI in a futures market will believe we are oversold on the open and look to drive the price back up. Economic Data; None important today. Earnings; I went over the major ones in the video, but some health companies are up, some are down, banks are mixed, and Tesla and IBM look poised to head lower due to economic headwinds. As many have asked about signals I get... I have a buy signal on ZL (Soybean futures), not that I plan to trade it. I have sell signals on the Euro (6E), the ES (you're here), 6N (New Zealand vs US$), 6M (Mexican Peso vs US$), 6C (Canadian vs US$), and HG (Copper Futures). I don't plan to trade on any of those other areas other than the S&P today though. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - ........ I still don't know... Neutral with a hint of bullish, but I don't "FEEL" the bullish... I "FEEL" Bearish. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Rally continues to fight Macro Economic conditionsSo I ended up jumping out yesterday as the price went up to 4160 for only a 750 gain. I had said my long position was to go in to any appearance that yet another buy the dip mentality surfaced, but I ended up not taking that trade and have no open position at the moment. Heading into today, the issue I see is we are mostly maxed out, yet again, to the uptrends. Following the trendlines, there is some minor room left to the upside on the 4hr and 2hr uptrends, being around 4200 and 4210 respectively. Past those I don't see much in terms of continued upward potential, nor do we have any major economic data to disrupt that. The trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4177 Uptrend (4/17/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4185 Uptrend (4/18/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4174 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4146 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Yet again, any dip is really the Long Position, as this rally continues to defy most analysts (including mine) and every dip is apparently an entry point. The trends have not provided any major guidance on sending us back down just yet without a serious disruption. The Short Position; Honestly, the 4200 level where we are is probably a decent short entry point. However, I've decided to wait and see if we head higher to 4210 and really max out every uptrend potential. The other entry point would be if the typical day can appear in reverse order, with an early rally that fizzles, and then go short as we pass that 4175 level again in hopes of actually heading lower. Economic Data; Nothing important today. Earnings; A handful of important companies, mostly whom all reported BTO and reported as beating expectations. Netflix is the only AMC I noted as being important. I've got sell signals in several currencies vs the US Dollar and also gold... so I may see my trading fall into one of those categories, although the US Dollar has really struggled so far this year to maintain any strength globally. Also, I have a very valid sell signal on the Dow Jones, so I could also dabble over in that section as well since the S&P, which is my usual bread & butter, I think is just acting completely illogical for the moment. My sentiment into today is; Basically all neutral with a hint of bearish on the short side and a hint of bullish on the long side. Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Will the S&P have the first negative Earnings Season?So I am short at 4175, still grasping on to the market losing its footing at this level and falling back towards 4000. Friday's dip though was immediately gobbled up and we ended up at basically break even overall on the day. So we shall see. The trends have allowed us some wiggle room to move upward, although we wouldn't be able to get too much higher before we would be maxed out to the upside again. We are heading into Earnings season, starting with some banking earnings last Friday and now have a few dozen companies reporting this week. The S&P has yet to have a bad earnings season, even during the peak of inflation, as all the dips happened before or after the Earnings season, so the real question is does that optimism and at times misleading data (The Walmart Effect) continue to attract investors to companies that appear to be overpriced? Or do companies warn investors of the potential economic impact of continued inflation, possible stagflation, and the likelihood of a recession and that it might negatively impact things and investors hear that message? Guess we will know in a few weeks. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4159 Downtrend (4/14/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4155 Downtrend (4/14/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4174 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4146 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low There is nothing here that appears it is going to just break through and melt down just yet. The Long Position; So far, any dip has been led by a rally back to at least neutral. With Trends still primed to go higher, I might get behind any rally if we see a major dip today. Additionally, if things get above 4175 I think we could drive up to 4200 or at least the 1hr uptrend (which I think will be around 4200). The Short Position; I'm in it at 4175. If we see a major move that breaks down below 4140 again we might settle in around 4120 for a riskier and less profitable trade. I see any major downswing still coming up, not just because of the buy the dip mentality but also because trends are all in an upward move. Economic Data; Nothing major today. I am heavily interested in the US Dollar attempting to regain some value lately though, as it seems to be spiraling down in most markets over the last couple months. Earnings; Charles Schwab is today. Basically the profits went up in Q1 but the deposits continue to fall in the company, causing some financial concern so the stock is down. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - ..... Neutral with Bullish sprinkled on top Safe trading, and remember that risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
How To Trade A Choppy Tape - Technical Analysis ES1! RTY1! MNQ1Big picture charts always supersede short term charts. Many day traders think that just because they are short term traders they don't need to look at the big picture charts, but in order to be a better executor of your short term strategy you need to understand the context of the current market environment. Should I be smaller and quicker to cover my trades? Should I hold on to this long or this short because we're breaking out on the higher time frame? All of this matters when you're looking to become a better trader. In today's video I go over the context of the current market environment in the ES1!, MNQ1, RTY! and YM1!. I use a 10 day moving average, Auto Anchored VWAPs, and I use a short term chart (3 minute) to explain why I have been using standard deviation lines on to scalp ES1! futures in this choppy tape.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by anthonycrudele
2
Trends maxed to the upside; Close to a Weekly UptrendSo I sat out all of the last two days. I wanted to see some of this rally falter, it did, but then I decided I would wait another day to see how the market reacted, and we end up skyrocketing on low volume yet again. The movement up did give us a Daily Uptrend on the ESM contract, instead of just the ES! overlay. I decided to mark that location since so far the ESM seems to be on it's own program. I'm in a Short at 4175 at the moment, I don't know that I'll hold it too long. Even since making the video it has caused my trade to go from a small profit gain to a small profit loss. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4133 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4147 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4174 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4146 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Really seems to be tremendous amounts of optimism in the market lately, and while the uptrend supports some of this movement, it would also call for at least a brief dip lower for a moment to catch it's breath. A weekly uptrend is likely close at hand here, so there is some room left to head upward I think. The Long Position; Any dip seems to be a Long position. Feeling that at least in the short term we are maxed out to the upside, I will likely stay out of Long positions, but the market doesn't seem to want to put any brakes on these upward movements. The Short Position; In terms of trends, when they max out they have difficulty continuing. We are maxed out to the upside, so I am looking for some movement, if nothing less at least a 30m downtrend, and will try to catch that move. Economic Data; Retail sales today, nothing else significant. Earnings; The narrative is that banks are in trouble. The reality is that they just posted massive Earnings as the first to post Earnings for Q1. My sentiment... Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - ......... Bullish? Almost Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Dow Jones Index (US30): The Market Will Go Higher 📈 On a today's live stream, we discussed Dow Jones Index. We spotted an inside bar formation, being formed on a key daily structure resistance and a confirmed bullish violation of the upper boundary of the range of the mother's bar. It is a very important bullish clue. Probabilities will be high that the Index will keep growing. The next goal for buyers will be 34175. ❤️Please, support this video with like and comment!❤️
ULong
by VasilyTrader
7
Trends still showing potential down move; CPI Data to guide usSo I cashed out my Long yesterday at 4150. Took it as a bonus that I made my weekly goal already. Due to that, I will be sitting out going into the CPI data. Volume remains ultra low, prices remain fairly stagnant, and trends still seem to be maxed out at least calling for some downward movement. I'm attempting to remain open minded to a long position, even though I don't see the macroeconomic conditions to support any such movement at all. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4144 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4131 Uptrend (4/10/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4140 Uptrend (4/10/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; A strong move up off CPI data that sends us into new highs past yesterday might be the time to hop in. I'm skeptical, but open minded to a move up 4160 going to 4200. The Short Position; Still looking for momentum below 4130, to head to 4100, and ultimately back down to a 6hr downtrend at least, which will be higher now and likely 4090ish. Will have to see what happens from there. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Looking for yet another drop; Trends into 4/11/2023So, while I'm actually Long at the moment from 4120, I still see the market heading south here shortly. I think the lack of volume has caused a delay in the corrective action I'm looking for. I took the Long based on my "Long Position" from yesterday, where I reversed my short into a Long to see if I can skim off the top. I still have numerous indicators and analysis all saying that the overall market is all entering into a downtrend. As I feel things are going short, I'm basically just preparing to switch my position to the downside once I see momentum pick up again, perhaps this time with some volume. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4126 Uptrend (4/10/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4137 Uptrend (4/10/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4137 Uptrend (4/10/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low You can see the 30m/1hr/2hr all flipped yet again, with the 30m/2hr giving a just ever so slightly higher high, and the 1hr having a strong lower high. The Long Position; While I have little faith this market manages to get higher, I'm at least open minded to it. The candle of yesterday is a bullish candle at least, so there is that. If prices push up past 4150, than I'd expect us to look back at the highs we saw briefly before at 4170ish. The Short Position; I'll strongly consider switch my position either as we pass 0 (4136) or might just wait until we hit that 4130 level. It is possible we get very little yet again today and then a major move tomorrow based on CPI. Economic Data; There isn't much today. Earnings; Not until Friday My Sentiment for today is an overall holding pattern; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Expecting this rally to continue to fizzle and more downsideSo I am back in short yet again at 4140, and again expect a movement down to a 6hr downtrend to correct the 6hr violation that occurred. Once we get to that point, I'll evaluate how the move is going to see if I think we will continue to break lower, hold in that area, or the rally will bounce and return. I have a side trade going on the 6E again. Perhaps my overdetermination to catch a down move there won't turn out well yet again, but, I have had numerous signals of a down move on the 6E, even though it has somehow managed to slowly trickle higher. I expect it to head down to at least 1.075ish. As for the S&P Futures, I'm really expecting a potential move back down to 4000 again from here, but I will remain open minded that once we hit somewhere around 4070 perhaps we can head higher and out of this price range we have been stuck in of 3800-4200. The Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4126 Uptrend (4/07/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4137 Uptrend (4/07/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4137 Uptrend (4/07/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Regarding the recent uptrends, these uptrends of the 30m, 1hr, and 2hr are substantially flatter than previously, and confirms the reduction in sentiment into this rally. So, for today my moves are; The Long Position; If we make a move towards 4100 and that falls, I could see a bounce off 4100 back up towards 4120ish. Being that I'm already short, I'd probably hold off on going long with this, but there is the potential. Additionally, if the downward move reverses and stops me out, I may just go Long with the movement upward from 4140 to 4170. The Short Position; I'm in it. I think the positive move over the closed trading cycles were incorrect, and I went Long there expecting downward movement here. I think we head to 4100 from here, and then I want to see us break lower at least until we get the 6hr downtrend signal. Once there I will evaluate if I will cash out or continue to hold for more downside. Economic Data; Nothing today. Not much tomorrow, but then we have CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, Jobs data Thursday, and some somewhat relevant data on Friday in terms of just how the economy is doing as a whole. Being that my indicators for nearly everything are red across the board on a Daily timeframe, I expect today to be a down day across most of the Futures Market, and I think there is a strong potential for this down momentum to hold all week. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends could clear downward movement to at least 4070ishSo I went Long yesterday like I said I would at 4101 (3/4hr downtrends), and then ultimately reversed the position at 4122 (1hr Uptrend). I'm currently holding that trade and looking for it to make a move down to the 6hr downtrend at least. The S&P has really left me underwhelmed this week, and I'd like to try and make a bit more profit from it if possible as I've had to rely on other areas to subsidize my earnings on these specific trades, and I usually look at side trades as a "bonus" rather than my standard income. The reason for the recent drop (which hasn't been significant yet) is that the labor market is weakening and now there is concern we could head into a recession. So finally people are trading bad news as bad news again (for now). Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4117 Uptrend (4/06/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4122 Uptrend (4/06/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4126 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Potentially if we head down to get that 6hr downtrend there may be room for a technical bounce up before the close. Additionally, I suppose if we begin to shoot upward past 4125, I could see us getting back up to a 2/3/4hr uptrend, as it would pave the way for lower lows to begin forming. Not my most likely scenario at the moment. The Short Position; I'm in it. I saw the Uptrend at 8am EST at 4122 as the highpoint of the day, and look to see the down momentum continue to a 6hr downtrend at least. The 6hr trend was violated and I can see it calling for a correct. Economic Data; It's all out there, jobs data shows the labor market is beginning to weaken. While some week over week numbers were less than the previous week, all measures were worse than expected and the continuing jobless claims went up overall. My Sentiment; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Uptrend beginning to dissolve; Trends into 4/5/2023So we got some initial down movement yesterday that finally challenged this massive upward movements on low volume the last few days. This provided a 30m/1hr/2hr downtrend. I'd expect the price action to recover briefly from here even if we are heading lower. It should be noted that yesterday's down movement was high in volume either. JOLTs data came in below expectations, and now today, so did ADP NonFarm payrolls. This shows the job market is weakening. With the market falling yesterday, it seems that everyone has moved past the inflation narrative and onto the concern of a looming recession. A recession is NOT priced into the market at this point, unless you theorize that it was priced in last year and now won't be considered in the market at all. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4148 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4138 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4126 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I mentioned in the video, and it should be noted at 4163ish started to signal a Daily Uptrend on the ESM. The Long Position; I think the market could be poised to run back up at least to 4150-4160 range. If I see that momentum at the open or near it, I may jump in briefly just to make money. The Short Position; With such an overheated market and such bearish sentiment, I could see there being few buyers to get behind the upward movement, and if we get a low volume upward movement topped with a 30m or 1hr uptrend, I may use that as a position to run short. Additionally, the down momentum of yesterday could continue, at least to a 3hr or 4hr downtrend. Either of those momentums will be something I'd like to try and grab. Either position is difficult to find the entry point for due to the relatively low volume over the past week. Typically price action + volume shows price direction. We've just lacked real volume lately even with major price moves. Economic Data; We still have ISM and Oil Inventories today. However, ADP NonFarm Payrolls showed a steep decline and below expectations by a sizeable amount. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends maxing to the Uptrends; And why Oil is skyrocketing?So I move it during the video to show the decline in upward trajectory, but the Daily Uptrend has signaled, still a higher high, though less upward movement. The caveat to that is that the ES! contract got the Daily, NOT the ESM. However, the ESM doesn't have a previous Daily Uptrend connection to go off of, because it doesn't have the history to draw from (just like it doesn't have a weekly signal at all to draw from), so I think with this upward movement the divergence between the two is going to mitigate here quickly. I could see the potential for us to move and get a ESM Daily Uptrend, but currently I'm going to be watching to see if this rally finally fades, to at least drop back and correct the 6hr lower high violation around 4040. What could really disperse this upward movement is the skyrocketing price of crude oil. If you're unaware, OPEC+ just advised they will be cutting production, apparently because the US who promised to restore the SPR, has now stated they will not be restoring the SPR this year. If that oil price begins to rise, while Oil only goes into Headline Inflation data and not Core Inflation data, it is always apparent how it bleeds into other areas and there will likely gain some concern that the expected rate cuts (which I don't agree are happening, but the market seems to believe we are going to have), are no longer coming and sustainment of this rally will dwindle away (except maybe some recovery in the Energy Sector). All that said, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4098 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I expect an initial downward move, however, if that downward momentum dwindles or the oil saga is resolved politically, I expect a potential recovery to at least the 4140+ level. This is my less likely scenario and I may not trade this. The Short Position; With us maxed to the upside and potential of rising gas prices, and sentiment dwindling, I am looking to ensure that the rally is fading and get into a downward trending move. I was surprised to see us come back up to neutral this morning already, and may just watch the open to see how prices react once the US Trading Day opens up. Currently the Nasdaq is coming down but the Dow Jones is halting the deepening of losses. Economic Data; Some PMI data could be important today. Geopolitical; Again, I'd watch this Oil story unfold. Additionally, with new additions to NATO, things could escalate with Russia and Western Nations in addition to the other growing geopolitical issues between the US and Asia already happening. My Long term assessment has started to turn a bit more bullish however, in that we got two higher high Uptrends in a row. If we fall hard from this point, than I will be watching the area of 3917 very closely to see if we get a lower low on the Daily as things progress. It should be noted that April is historically the second best month of the S&P. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Perfect storm brewingSo I am finally back into the S&P, and short at 4090. We got the 12hr uptrend I wanted, which was just barely a higher high and gives us room to head down and get a new lower low if the market wants to take a dive over the next few months. Lots of commodity prices are rising, bond yields are going up, the value of the dollar is beginning to gain strength, volume has been nonexistent, and stocks are overheated. To me, this is a perfect storm of a sell off coming. The last piece I want to see is that income remain low, while inflationary pressure goes back up, and I think that will tip the scale into a short scenario. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4082 Downtrend (3/31/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low If we head lower, I could see it starting off with spikes down that recover back to the 4080 level several times, before we make an ultimate plunge. The Short Position; I'm in it, at 4090. The Long Position; If we break above 4090 I could see us heading into the 4100 zone. Additionally if we spike down too hard, I might go Long briefly just to come back up to neutral before the next spike down, much like I did in going Long when we were in the 3800 range. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Optimism brings more optimism!So, the low volume continues to plague these movements. Most of the movements have been in premarket trading now also. I think another day of sit and wait is in order for me. We've gotten the 3hr/4hr/6hr uptrends. The 6hr was a lower high and was immediately violated with no hesitation. The 3hr and 4hr were higher highs, which we also pushed past. With the current momentum, I'd expect to see a 12hr uptrend here showing up soon. As I sit out of the market, at this point I just hope we rocket up further, even if I'm not apart of it, and get a 12hr and Daily uptrend with no pullback. If we do, at that point we get to be maxed out to the upside. The trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4015 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; With such low volume and no immediate economic condition that justifies these moves, I cannot get into a long position from here. I think this rally is unstable. The Short Position; My most likely will short will be patiently waiting for an additional low volume spike upward above the 12hr and potentially even a Daily uptrend. However, if this upward movement fails and we head back towards 4060 with a lot of momentum, I might short at 4060 to see if we lose the spike from yesterday, with a target of 4000 to jump out at or at least prepare to jump out at if we didn't crash down beneath there. In order to get into this though, I'd have to see the market reacting to the GDP or Jobless release in a rational way, and that rarely happens. My sentiment is (from 4080) The market is confused, so my sentiment is to stay out, honestly. Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader