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Extreme Greed and Overheated Market; Time to Walk AwaySo while I've had some gains on this market, especially below the 4300 range, at this point I cannot explain where this extreme level of optimism and risk taking behavior is coming from and I think it is time for me to walk away. While I can agree we are in a Bull Market, and I do not think at this point that we will be visiting the lows of 2022 without some major global catastrophe, I cannot get into any more movement upwards, and yet at the same time, I have decided continuing to try and catch the thrown knife is just going to lead to more issues for me. I MIGHT go Short at 4500, since 4500 is the highest projection for 2023 from ANY market and economic viewpoint, but even that just doesn't feel promising enough to mess with any of this. I've no idea what this rally is attached to other than AI excitement. The Forward Earnings of some companies are running at over 200x which is just absolute lunacy. So, all things being said, at this point I am walking away, and likely will continue to walk away until we drop back to may 4350 or so, and see if some of the excessive money into the FANG+ drops out and begins to get into a wider investment sentiment into the market. Safe trading if you stay in this, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
CPI Headline down; Core flatlined; Markets continue to soarSo we ran along the 30m uptrending line yesterday, and keep nearing striking the 6hr insanely steep ascending trendline I didn't think we could maintain. Much to my dismay, I am sitting in my negative trade. I may soon just eat a loss, which will cause me to take a day off as per my risk management plan. Luckily at the moment I did go Long yesterday in a couple 6E contracts and it has me up around the same amount I've been losing on the ES contract I have. I still hold out that I think we need to find a leg down, even if just briefly to around 4200, which is crazy at this point that 4200 so quickly became a potential support line. The FANG stocks are just barely shy of their highest trading prices ever, and will be there by today or tomorrow at the current growth rate we've been seeing. I understand the trends keep calling for upward movement, but I am definitely just baffled by how optimistic we seem to be and the sky rocketing valuations we are dealing with as a market index. The growth in the IT sector is over 30% already year to date. The current expectation is absolutely no slowing in growth this year, that none of the monetary tightening is going to impact anything, and that the world is moving forward without any risk. I suppose I am just entirely too cautious to get behind such a narrative at the moment. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract) 30m - 4389 Downtrend (6/13/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend Weekly - None Economic Data; As I said, CPI data came in, headline is down, but core inflation is mostly flat. Tomorrow is FOMC Rate day, so more fun to come! My sentiment overall is; WTF... I have nothing else haha Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
1
Trends maxed to upside; New Contract Trends; Overbought statusSo I have some other catching up to do, but currently it appears the ESU contract is now here, and as I've said over the last few weeks, I felt that the ESM contract was clearly going to be an upward moving contract, and that any leg down would be over the next contract. I continue to comment that with the major price gains on major tech stocks, if investors don't sell these stocks they haven't capitalized on the movement up... so there needs to be a sell off to capitalize on profit. Now that the next contract is here, because of the previous moves it is starting at 100 MFI overbought status on a weekly basis. So overall, while I'm not in bear mode, I see the next 3 months at least being relatively flat, with a leg down first before we decide if we come back up here or not. I think we will see the Fed monetary policy begin to hit the economy over the next 3 months, and additionally many major investment companies are likely to move away from active monitoring like they do most summers and retail investors could drive the prices down since there is a predominantly short position going into this summer period. Trends into today (Only /ESU23 contract); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract) 30m - 4363 Uptrend (6/12/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend Weekly - None The Long Position; Basically we can keep running the narrative that buy any minor dip. I'd say if things dip down to 4300 there would likely be a pullback up briefly, but I am trading with the expectation we need a leg down. The Short Position; Since we are maxed out to the uptrend, I see anything above 4363 as a entry point to the downside. I obviously believe this enough that I am actively short on this trade. Economic Data; Nothing today really. However, CPI is tomorrow, PPI is Wednesday, FOMC rate and statement is Wednesday, and jobs numbers on Thursday. Overall it should be an active week. I expect Powell it come across slightly hawkish to try and calm the market, since the massive jump in the market could ultimately undermine some of the monetary tightening they are attempting to do here. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Bullish/Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends call for some upward movement; Conditions still flatSo I'm Long again in the ES from 4180 at the 6hr Higher Low downtrend point. I'm looking to see if we can get a 30m or even a 1hr uptrend and then I will likely cash out. I've an issue with the excessive upward slope of the 6hr, so I am currently looking at it as unreliable, but maybe over the next few weeks we will see a strong swing upward. This flat market (especially on a Weekly Analysis) is difficult to trade in, and I find it difficult to see things opening up room to the upside. The Market is still primarily being held up by the top companies and P/E forward earning ratios are just excessive in those companies. NVidia is trading at 175x Forward Earnings. I mean I get that the company has a good forward projection, but 175x Forward Earnings?! Anyways, Trends into today (Note... I realized in the video I had accidentally updated them to Lower High's... I've corrected them they are Higher Low's as they are all in downtrends) Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4219 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4219 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4207 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4204 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4194 Downtrend (5/31/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4182 Downtrend (5/31/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4224 Uptrend (5/28/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If we fall below the 6hr line and then push back above, I'd see that as a potential entry point. That or if we fall today and hit a 12hr higher low. I don't see the floor falling out underneath us just yet, so any dip may be an entry point briefly for an upward push towards mid day like we've seen over and over. The Short Position; A strong push below the 6hr ascending line, currently at about 4192, could be a strong move to get a 12hr downtrend at least. Additionally, if we see upward movement and get a 30m/1hr uptrend, it may be an entry point to the downside. Economic Data; Jobs data and Manufacturing data today. Usually has some impact though I feel we've become fairly immune to the jobs data at this point. Bigger data points I think will be tomorrow. My Sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight bullish Long Term - Neutral/Reluctantly Bullish Safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends maxed to the upside; Some small pullback expectedWith things like NVidia at 175x Forward Earnings, I really see some pullback here on these overheated tech stocks. However, I am waiting to see the upward momentum waver before I decide to go in short on this overly optimistic AI fueled rally. Trends are now maxed out to the upside, and so I expect some pullback there as well so we can have trends to take us higher. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4167 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4183 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4210 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4210 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4224 Uptrend (5/28/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; Mostly just jobs info all week. Couple other minor things but that is definitely the biggest driver all week. Earnings season is over. Geopolitical Issue; I think the biggest threat to this rally is Geopolitical issues rising with China and Taiwan, so keep your eyes on that. NVidia's success is based on their continued coupling with Taiwan Semi. Any threat to Taiwan, and subsequently Taiwan Semi, within the next 2 years or so while other companies gain the hardware to compete with Taiwan Semi, would crush the current AI bubble. That being said I haven't heard of any major aggression of China against Taiwan lately. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bullish Ultimately I still think the deciding factor is going to be the ESM contract ending here shortly. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends in a Middle Zone; direction undecidedI'm on my laptop working outside on my deck so this will probably be a bit brief. We basically have a flatlined higher high on the 2hr, I've gone short with it, but anything above this and my short positioning will be fizzled out for now. I'm up about $1000 on my 6E trade so I will be quick to cash out for a $4000 profit week and call it. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4167 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; With momentum beginning to shift back up, any movement above 4167 may be followed with more upside. Additionally any retracement down may be a buy the dip moment. The Short Position; I am in what I would consider the last short position at 4167ish. The only other move I see is a strong push below the lower high trend of the 30m at 4147ish today. Economic Data; We have PCE, Durable Goods, and Personal Income today. All could cause some movement here soon. Earnings; At this point I consider earnings season to be over. I understand the investment into AI, but overall if investors don't take profit when things are up, what is the point of investing. Looking to see if people take profit soon on the various tech climb. My sentiment overall is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bullish/Neutral Safe trading! Remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends hitting resistance going up; Will NVidia Crash through?So the NVidia story could really disrupt the narrative that trends were pushing. Personally, while I like the optimism for NVidia, I can't say I'd want to get in at 230% valuation gain on the year. However, what do I know? I trade S&P Futures, not NVidia stocks. Ultimately I still think the overbought tech sector can't continue to carry the entire market, and that people are going to cash out at least for the moment some time soon, perhaps as we near the contract settling point of early June. I attempted to go short at the lower high 30m at the close of yesterday and was stopped out, and I am not short again at the 1hr lower high at 4164. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I have no trends other than the Daily timeline in an uptrend at all. So I can't say I'm confident in any longs here. There is an upward trendline that comes in around 4140, so I suppose there is that... but overall I think we head sideways before we head up. The Short Position; The most recent short spot is 4164. A break below that trendline at 4140 is a late entry, or wait for things to turn negative at 4126ish. I like my entry point, it is why I stayed out all day yesterday to get this spot. Economic Data; Job Market remains robust, GDP slowing but above expectations, PCE showing potential flatline or increased inflationary data, and housing market is still flatlined. None of this makes me jump into the narrative there will be rate cuts coming this month. Earnings; NVidia annihilated their earnings expectations and provided some pretty robust forward guidance. That is a continue developing story I will be following. Costco reports after the close. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bullish/Neutral I am Long on the 6E, so I do have some optimism =) Safe trading! Remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends maxed to the downside nowSo I did jump into a brief short and got my weekly goal from 4160 to about 4148. Once we hit there we settled in with a 6hr downtrend, which is a higher low and is now also violated. While I feel that this downward momentum is long overdue and should continue, my trading strategy is to trade on trends and currently every single trend is violated except the 30m and 1hr, and those are considerably oversold if they were the funnels to take us lower. I still think on a medium term we are headed to 4000 at least, trends will dictate we have at least a brief rally here before we can head lower. So with my macroeconomic assessment in conflict with my trading strategy, I think I will stay out for the moment. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4204 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4192 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I mean, it is probably a decent bet to go long here at 4138, although not enough for me to get a warm and fuzzy over it. I think a meltdown is just long overdue and could come in with a vengeance. The Short Position; I'd like to see a technical bounce to get a 30m uptrend at least as a short position. Not sure that will happen, but if it does, I plan to be ready. Economic Data; Yellen is speaking this morning, then FOMC Minutes and EBC Legarde later this afternoon. All could be market movers. Overall, my sentiment today (From 4135) is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bullish Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Likely some sideways movement before the next real moveSo the 30m and 1hr were able to squeak out some signs to head lower, and because of that I jumped in Short at 4204. I'm certainly not completely sold we are dumping anymore since we broke the trends that were shifting us to the downside. I will hold this short until the 2hr signals a downtrend which is without a doubt going to be a higher low and then I will proceed with caution and potentially even cash out. At this point I am cautiously bullish in the medium term outlook, but the sell signal on Trend Momentum on the Weekly timeframe during upward movement has me very skittish. As I said in the video, this will be the first sell signal during the ESM contract since March, and the ESM contract expires here in just a few weeks and there tends to be a major move or reversal during these times, or at least a huge uptick in volume which we have been lacking this whole contract like I haven't seen since the end of 2021. Anyways, trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4204 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4192 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4164 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4172 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4180 Uptrend (5/18/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Any movement back above 4204 could be met with additional follow through since the 30m was a flat trend basically. Also, if we get lower to a 2hr, I would expect it to try and find some buy the dip mentality. The Short Position; A return to 4204 may just be another entry to the down, I would really watch momentum (I would expect it to push higher if it goes up there rather than just touch and come back down, honestly). Additionally, a late entry point might be a strong surge below 4192, at least down to the 2hr downtrend mark which I'd assume will be somewhere along 4180ish. Economic Data; Nothing major today. FOMC minutes tomorrow, so maybe some pretrading depending on what is expected from that report. Earnings; Intuit and Lowes is today. So retail and tech. Shouldn't resonate through the market though as we are on the tail end of Earnings season. My sentiment (from 4194) is; Shorter Term - Bearish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral/Bullish My biggest pause on just believe we will go higher is dealing with this weekly momentum trend sell signal. Maybe we will be flat for a couple weeks that will give me some time away from that signal or even show a reverse and buy signal instead. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends continue to battle within the 4100-4200 rangeSo with us back at the top of the range bound area we have been in of 4100-4200, the longer term trend of a 6hr has provided a lower high entry point. After getting stopped out from my previous entry point I've gone back in again at 4181. Being that the 30m/1hr/2hr and now 6hr are calling for a pull back down, and we are not above the funnel range of the 4hr and 3hr, I fully expect things to head back down here soon. We do have a 12hr that can still hit an uptrend, and we are not outside the range of the Daily trend yet which is at 4200. The index that tracks the top stocks, the NYFANG, is in overbought territory on a Daily timeframe and nearly into overbought territory on a Weekly basis as well. Those stocks have been propping up the market and I think this zone will see at least some retracement on their part as well. Additionally, the head and shoulders I foresaw being developed reached full maturity with the pump on a medium volume day. Alas, my 6E trade had gave up some of the profit I'd peaked at yesterday but is now making new lows. We are about .2 away from reaching my target goal there and I'm happy with the $4000 trade that has become. If I need to utilize that profit to subsidize my lack of profit in the S&P this week, I can handle that. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4136 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4164 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4164 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4172 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4180 Uptrend (5/18/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; The 3hr and 4hr are calling in for support at 4172, so if they manage to stop any downward momentum they could help lift the market to a 12hr uptrend and/or the Daily ascending trendline at 4200. The Short position; With the 6hr calling for a reverse, and the lower timeframes heavily violated, I see the 4180 price point as an entry to the downside. Economic Data; We've got Philly data including a manufacturing index and the usual jobs data. Don't forget that Powell speaks tomorrow as well since I likely won't be around tomorrow. Earnings; Walmart beat their lowered target goal, and have raised the year end target but lowered Q2 expectations. See how they pull this off yet? Now when they beat Q2 lowered expectations, they can keep the year long up and lower Q3... and on and on we go with this fake earnings beats. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bullish/Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
Trends retain a short term bearish sentiment; long term unclearSo we got a 30m lower high uptrend this morning after getting the higher low 30m yesterday. I went Long at the close of yesterday looking to get back up, and it did overnight but ultimately came back and profit stopped me for only $200 before heading up the rest of the way. With the lower high 30m at 4136 I've gone Short this morning at 4139. I was up fairly early this morning to manage by 6E trade and make sure that the CPI data for the EuroZone didn't ruin my current profit gains on that contract. Overall, I can say it has been uneventful for the most part this morning. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4136 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/11/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I'll be looking for a down movement to a 4hr downtrend and evaluate how that movement comes in. If it loses steam and is a higher low, I may reverse my direction into a long position. The Short Position; I'm in it. The 30m hit at 4136, so I got in slightly above that, but I'm looking for at least one movement down to 4120s and want to hold until we get a 30m / 4hr downtrend. Economic Data; Nothing major I saw today. Earnings; Target lowered Q2 earnings. Most companies are talking about expectations that Q2 is going to hurt profits. TJX though raised estimates, so that isn't across the board. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Trends lost some bearish sentiment; Somewhat neutral againSo we ended up with the 30m higher high by 2 points when it came in. That let's the 30m call for correction, the 1hr-3hr calling for a movement down, the 4hr fairly neutral, and the 6hr/12hr calling for movement up. All in all I feel like there is less direction into today than yesterday. I sat out yesterday and may likely sit out again today. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4148 Uptrend (5/16/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/11/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I will wait and see where the 30m trend comes in. If it comes in as a higher low (above 4128) I may go Long there if it appears to be losing momentum. Otherwise I might look to go long if we pass 4150 with determination, as the 30m is calling for upward movement and the 1hr may not be far away and would still come in as a lower high. The Short Position; If we get a 1hr uptrend that is a lower high I may go short at that point if momentum begins to run out. Additionally, if we break down past the 6hr trendline (4136) I may go short and see if I can run it down to at least 4116 and then set a profit stop and see if it will run down further. Economic Data; Retail Sales numbers are in. Basically it seems retail sales popped a tiny bit in April, but less than expected, and year over year we are lower. Earnings; Home Depot had a disappointing Earnings report based on artcles I read on the matter, and that appears to be bleeding over into Lowe's at the moment. It could bleed into other areas of retail as well, such as Walmart, who report later this week. All in all my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Bullish Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends bias to the downside, but direction still unclearSo here you are again, sitting at the mid 4150 level. Overall trends have shifted from an upside trend movement at the beginning of April (Yes... we got stuck up here since April) to a downside trend movement now in the Middle of May. I think we are very close to getting a 1hr uptrend, which will be a lower high, and then I'll be looking to see if we reverse from there or try to get a 2hr uptrend. The 2hr uptrend may lower high or a higher high, I think it is too close to call. If we get a higher high, I'd expect some retracement down but once we get that movement down there is the potential it could try to push us higher. However, before we look to move higher, we'd have to shrug off the downtrend momentum that has already formed on the 30m/1hr/2hr/3hr timeframes. We did settle briefly below the 6hr trendline that has acted as a major support, but now we are above that again also, and we have to now battle back down beneath it if we are going to stay down there, and then we still have the 12hr to battle past. On a trend momentum level, we got a sell signal on a WEEKLY time frame with the S&P. Going into today, we don't have that same signal on a daily, just that the uptrend movement has ended, but no sell signal yet. If we get a sideways or lower day, I see that sell signal popping up either tomorrow or Wednesday. So I might be a bit neutral until I see that lower time frame confirmation. With that said, trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4146 Uptrend (5/15/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/11/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I dunno honestly. I don't feel overly comfortable up here at 4150. I could see it bounce off the 6hr again at 4138 (which is also the zero neutral on the day). The Short Position; I may look to go short if we get that 1hr uptrend, perhaps around 4160. I would be cautious with it though, as I could see us ending somewhere around 4150 here and really letting the bearish positioning build back up. Overall, I may not trade today, as I'm not a fan at this point of either position. I have made around $29,000 between this 4100 and 4200 level. Continuing to trade within this zone by just bouncing back and forth is almost TOO predictable at this point, and I feel like I am pushing my luck if I just continue to assume every move up will falter and every dip will be bought up. Economic Data; I don't see some major economic data point that will rock the market this week until perhaps when Powell speaks on Friday. If he comes in with a heavy handed tone it could cause the market to falter and break down. Otherwise, I go over them in the video but I don't see any of the data jolting the data out of this neutral mood. Earnings; I think the Earnings story this week is underrated. Most major retail companies come out today and I think the forward guidance and Earnings reports could show consumer spending habits early on that could begin bleeding into the economy. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/bearish Long Term - Neutral/bullish I will mark this as a Short based on my belief that on a medium term we head lower. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan! On a side note, if you are looking for a nice vacation, I'd suggest looking into Argentina. I feel emotional pain for the country and the economic issues they are going through... however it should also be recognized that due to their economic woes, most countries have a much higher value in currency and a trip to areas even like Patagonia would be relatively cheap in comparison.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Market wants guidance but ignores all data; TrendsSo we've got a lower high 30m, and the downtrend of the 30m would be very easy to push below coming in at anything below 4146. Many of the other trends are likely still poised to bring in lower lows if we have any downward momentum. However, momentum seems to be nonexistent. CPI data has normally been a major mover, but in the end it wasn't. Jobs giving way to potential recession, we still didn't move much. Not sure what the market is looking for, but it just seems we are stuck and no one is confident in a downward move or an uptrend to new highs. Ultimately the longer we stay here, the longer I think trends will keep us stuck here. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4159 Uptrend (5/12/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Long Position; Any movement below that 6hr trendline has shown to be a strong level of support and come back up. That level today is around 4135. The Short Position; Up here. I haven't gone short yet, but the level around 4159 based on the 30m would say that is the entry point to take us lower. Economic Data; Nothing major. Michigan inflation and consumer data. Earnings; No earnings today Ultimately... I might jump in if the market turns negative and carry it over the $300 I need and just cash out this week. That will give me my $2500 quota for the S&P. I have the bonus of money made on the 6E to support if I decide to just come up short this week. It really comes in to the major tech stocks and the Nasdaq coming off making new highs. We are one "Sell the Rip" away from a leg down. My sentiment into today (from 4159) Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/ Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Trends opening up to the down; Market still appears deadSo I'm glad I didn't jump into 4160 as a short near the end of yesterday, as it gave me the chance to get in short at 4167 this morning. We've gotten a lower high and a higher low (just hit) for the 30m trend. That leaves me with some skeptic optimism that the market will continue to fall (is optimism the right word?) and we can discount the 30m and look for the 1hr downtrend. We actually HAD the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 4hr downtrends all coming in yesterday as lower lows, and then we started the rebound and lost all of them but the 30m. All in all, I still think the trends are showing a lack in upward movement, and as I watch this playout it continues to appear to be a head and shoulder formation in price action. The trends into today are (I updated the 30m since the video); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/11/2023) higher Low 1Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; We've had issues getting below the 6hr higher low ascending trendline. We will meet this line again around 4133. Additionally, we've get to break down below the newly minted 30m higher low downtrend of 4146, and I'd then also be looking to make sure that when the 1hr and on hit a downtrend, that they are lower lows. In order to get much lower, we will need to violate the 6hr and 12hr trendlines so there is that also. The Short Position; I'm in it. I already felt confident about 4160 yesterday, but didn't want to hold the trade overnight. This morning, an even better position at 4167 presented itself with a lower high 30m entry point. If somehow I get stopped out because we head back up, I'd be looking for another movement down below the current 30m ascending bar causing a support level, or the 3hr descending line is still around 4150 and we have failed to remain above that trendline as well. Economic Data; Jobs and PPI data today. I won't speculate how it will be traded though, except if PPI surprises to the upside. Earnings; No major earnings today. Disney was yesterday as the big mover for the week. They missed earnings, that could bleed into today. My sentiment today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
4
Despite bank run, why is the market higher? • First, the bank run APPEARS to have stabilized • Second, the inflation SEEMS to be taming Do not be complacent, keep on keeping track of the coming market developments. Just like what Jerome Powell said on the 3rd May after the latest interest rate hike, in the meeting conference, he said “We will take a data-dependent approach, our future policy will depend how events unfold … meeting by meeting.” I totally agree with him! As a retail investor, we can study into the price behavioural movement and I did quite a few videos on that (see below), market will usually give us early signal and we should be able to tell before the next crisis hits again. Trading & Hedging in Nasdaq - E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options: Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options: Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by konhow
Complete Lack of Volume & trends poised for anywhere; Patience!So I mention in the video, but make sure to realize how insanely low the volume has been the last two days. Sub 1 million contract days are very, very rare. 2 in a row... well the last time I could find we had multiple was the week right after Christmas of 2021, just before we started the 2022 sell off. Now I'm not saying we are heading to a freefall again, I'm just saying that with no volume and no movement, this is a time for caution. We had a 2 hour downtrend come in early this morning and it is also a higher low. That means the 30m/1hr/2hr are all calling for a movement up (though for reference, the trends before were all mostly lower lows also). So the next movement will be the 3hr and see if we bounce there, which will likely be between the 6hr and 12hr trend lines. Once we get a 3hr, we will have a jump with the only next trend being the Daily. I would expect the 30m at least to get an uptrend before we head lower at that point. So with that said, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/8/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4137 Downtrend (5/9/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4128 Downtrend (5/10/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Thus far we have not broken and stayed below the 2hr. The Long Position; I would probably wait for a strong move above 4140 and might potentially jump in trying to get at least a 30m uptrend likely around 4160 and see where things go. The Short Position; I think the 4132 is a decent entry point down. For the record, I'm NOT taking it, because I don't think I want to trade prior to CPI data. I will likely attempt to catch a wave on CPI and see if I can surf it and jump out once it looks overheated in either direction. So yeah, I don't think I'd jump in to a short prior to CPI here. Economic Data; CPI Data is today. I mention in the video, but basically if we come in as expected (which is basically flat) or even slightly below expectations, I just don't think there is anything new to be excited so we may get a small pop but it'll fizzle quickly. I think the bigger danger of a move, is if it comes in to a surprise upside showing inflation is moving back up, and that will help to start nudge us off the cliff we are staying off of for a next leg down. Earnings; Disney is after market close. So I'll be watching that for later. Geopolitical Issues; Just local stuff here in the US with the argument over the debt ceiling. At no point do I think we will default, because those politicians all have a lot of money in the market themselves, but I do think they will hold things to see if they can scare the market down so they can purchase stocks at a premium. This is why we really need to stop Federal politicians from being able to invest in the market. My Sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral/Slightly bearish Short Term - Neutral/Slightly bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Slightly Bullish All in all I expect more potential downside than up. I think it is an issue that 92% of the gains in the S&P for the year are on the top 15 companies. It is around 80% is all from just the top 5. At one point do these handful of stocks that are carrying the market break and people look to cash out and the market falls? Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan. I am marking this as a SHORT for the day, but realize I am advising a lot of caution and patience here. My intent is to try and gauge which way the market is going off of CPI, and catch a 10-20 point wave and cash out or look to put profit stops.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
5
Trends continue to be mixed as we head into CPISo since we failed to get a 4hr uptrend, broke below the 30m, and appear to be guided by the 3hr trend timeframe at the moment, I am short at 4151. Looking to see us hit 4130 (the 6hr ascending trendline) and see if we break below that or fail. If we break below that I'll be looking to see if we can head down to the 12hr flatish (slight ascending) trendline at 4185. I have some concerns here in that I am getting a buy signal on the ES!, however, I don't feel it is a good signal as it comes after that nearly 2% movement up, so the signal is more a lagging indicator than trend momentum shift. My 6E trade continues to be profitable, with a recent bump putting it close to $2000. That allows me to reduce some pressure off needing to trade on the ES if the S&P continues to act nutty. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/8/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4137 Downtrend (5/9/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4136 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Currently just scouting for the 2hr downtrend signal to hit if we keep going lower as the next trend. The last 2hr downtrend was 4118, so currently I expect it to be a higher low unless we melt down a good 20 points over a 2hr period. The Long Position; Both the 6hr ascending trendline (a higher low downtrend) and the potential 2hr higher low mark if it shows up, could both be entry points to the upside. I don't know I'll flip my position since I'm in a Short position, as I might want to give the Short some wiggle room to go down further, but if it fails I'll likely have then missed my entry point for these positions. See how I feel when/if they happen. The Short Position; I think the breakdown of the 30m was good the last entry point. Currently we have broken beneath the 1hr, so a less secure entry point though still decent move might be if we reach back up and touch 4138, dumping the trade if it ends the 1hr bar higher and holding if it continues to hold below that trendline. Another entry to a short could be if we move with momentum below the 6hr bar that is currently at around 4130. I would be more cautious on this last one, as by that point we could have several trends calling for a movement up and having been violated past their support levels. Economic Data; Nothing major today. All eyes on CPI tomorrow most likely. Earnings; Nothing noteworthy today. My sentiment; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bullish Obviously I hope for more downside because I'm in a Short, but I don't have strong data that says we remain here, just had data that we would fall below that 4150 level I had talked about yesterday. The super low volume is making trading very difficult. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends having higher highs and lower lows; which way to go?So after sitting back and being less annoyed with the market and doing a proper analysis, I see that I think this level is coming in as a pivotal point in our next move. The 1hr/2hr are both showing higher highs and lower lows for the previous trends. The 3hr has a lower high and lower low but was violated already. If the 4hr hits it too will have a higher high and lower low, which I have seen it just start to signal here at 4160.75, so if it can maintain this movement up until 9am EST, it will signal than as well. After drawing several possible trendlines and looking at trends mathematically, my next entry point to a short could very well be 4190 or 4151 if we lose steam here. The area between those two zones to me at this point is likely to be a no trade zone. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4100 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4126 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4136 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I would expect at this point to see the 30m at least get corrected, possibly by the end of the day. The Long Position; If I see a downtrend on the 30m I would consider using that as an entry for price movement upward. However, I am not sure at this point I want to get into a Long position, so we will see how that move looks then. The Short Position; A trend resistance looks to be coming in at 4190. The other end of that trade is falling back below the first lower high we have had, which is the 3hr at 4151. Economic Data; The Loan Officer Survey is today. That is the main one I'm interested in to see if we indeed have lending tightening going on during this bank "issue" that may or may not even exist. Otherwise, CPI is Wednesday and should bring some movement into the market. Earnings; Disney later this week, but yeah, Earnings are a bit slow this week. All in all, this to me feels like a sit out and wait kinda day, or look for a pump that hits a resistance that I can short before a potential dump afterwards back down to at least 4100. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral with a bearish bias Long Term - Neutral with a Bullish bias As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
Trends showing likely calm going into the weekendSo with the 6hr and 12hr both being a higher low, I'd expect at this point for us to at least head up and catch the 1hr violated trend. We've already hit the 30m (lower high) this morning. The 1hr is going to be a tricky trend, as the last uptrend we had was actually low at 4107, so there is the potential it will be a higher high and therefore not provide much guidance. This is likely one of those days I may just sit out and observe. If we have a significant dip, and then rally back up, we could absolutely see a 1hr uptrend lower than 4107, but if this unhindered movement up continues, it will likely provide us a the higher high 1hr, and then we look to the 2hr which currently has us heading down. All in all, if we pushed higher I think we would end up maxing out our trends fairly quickly and just be heading back down soon after, so overall I'm fairly neutral right now. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4100 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4167 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4118 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; A move down to that acquires a 30m downtrend could very well be an entry point, as I that would max us in downtrends except the Daily, and I don't see us jumping from 30m to Daily without assistance from a higher timeframe. The Short Position; A strong push back below 4100 (the 30m lower high) could signal at least a return to 4080ish and has the potential for more movement down. Not sure I like either move at this point as they are both likely short trades with too much risk. Economic Data; Unemployment, Payrolls, and Wages... oh my! Honestly not sure it will move the market like it should during an Earnings week. Earnings; The residual of Apple's earnings will play out today. I think this is becoming a major issue that much of the market is faltering and being propped up by mainly the Big 5 companies. They are sitting at 22x valuation while most of the rest of the market is around 17x-18x valuation. Seems to thought is, if we can't trust our money in the banks, just toss it into Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc. My sentiment overall; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Mmmm... Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Slightly... Bullish? It is hard for me to expect a continued sell off with such pathetic volume in the down days to match the pathetic volume of the up days. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
3