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Supply and Demand

Crucial Zones Testing In BankniftyLook at the bigger picture. On the chart itself Banknifty is stuck between a significant support and resistance zone. For all those who are waiting for going long on banknifty, a close above this level might decide the future. Also, if you look at RSI it is in the key support zone . If RSI trends upward after taking support at this level long positions can be initiated. On lower time frame if the ascending triangle breaks successfully then upward momentum will be confirmed. ( There might be chances of triangle breakout failure for short term as seen in USDINR) This setup might take a few weeks to occur or could never happen if the above zones break easily due to any reason. Wait for confirmations then initiate a long position in this scary bearish market only if you believe in your setup. This explanation is only for educational purpose and isn't any kind of recommendation. Don't take any action based on this explanation itself. Consider your financial advisor before taking any trades. Thanks for your time. Happy Trading
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by Trader_Tech
4
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Education
by DerbyT
Why I think Post Earnings Trades can be more profitable! PLEASE NOTE: this is just my opinion. I know a lot of people who LOVE trading earnings and can and do have some pretty good results. If you trade earnings, that's awesome, I just always say no matter what or how you trade, just have a plan and stick to it! But for me, earnings just doesn't fall into my game plan. I used to trade earnings with some up and down results and finally came up with a game plan and stuck to it -- COMPLETELY forget about earnings! And, if anything, trade POST EARNINGS, not PRE-earnings. Ever since, my consistency has increased. Yes, I understand there are many viewpoints here, i.e., great to capture volatility crush by selling; ability to capture huge move with little risk lotto. Yea, you can bank pretty good if you get an earnings right, but there are so many factors working against you that I would rather trade 10 consistent trades with a higher win percentage compared to making 10 trades with the hope that fate is on my side for at least one or two of them. So, this is why I think post earnings can better set you up for more sustainable, consistent profits. I've attached an image of Netflix. With their recent earnings, figured I'd just use them for an example. To help illustrate, I'm using the Oct. 16, 2019 earnings. So, what is my set up for earnings? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! I trade wave theory and supply/demand. Let's walk through this hypothetically .... Pretend there is NO such thing as earnings for this... It's beginning of October and I want to make a trade in Netflix. I go chart it, find supply/demand, and low and behold, "NOPE, not entering a trade yet. We are currently in a chop zone. But, based on my game plan, I will WAIT and LOOK TO SHORT at the 300 supply zone OR I will WAIT and look to enter a LONG position at the demand zone around around 268." Game plan set, set some trade alerts/price alerts, and now wait. Oh, Oct. 17 I get an alert Netflix has entered a supply zone. I go, check out price action, and potentially decide to enter a short trade because price for some reason rocketed up to a BIG supply zone. I enter a short and stick to my game plan until invalidation level. Well, Oct. 18 rolls in and the stock has now dropped by end of day from 308 down to 273! Let's say I lock in some profit and I close all positions. I have now followed my game plan up to this point with no consideration as to what, why or how price entered my target zone. My main thing is to find my entry zones and WAIT until price gets there, no matter the reason of how. Now, after I close out, I re evaluate. Oh, look at that, there is a BIG DEMAND zone down at 265 area. Guess what, another trade alert set and then it triggers. I go and review price action and see that there was a WHOLE LOT of selling directly into demand. Sweet, a confirmation signal I look for. So, lets say I now enter, according to my game plan (short supply, long demand), I enter a long position at 268. Well, as you can see, sticking to my game plan and the general concept of powerful moves being able to come out of demand, price trended all the way up to 338. Lets hypothetically lock in those gains and move on to the next trade! ...... Well, happens all the time, but lets say someone asks, "OMG, did you trade Netflix earnings? I made a killing on the pop up! (or lost on the surprise beat)." My response: "ummmm I didn't even know there was earnings...." My game plan: less stress; putting odds in my favor; potentially made some awesome swing trades for a total point value of about 110 points! Person who traded earnings: stressed; ears and eyes locked onto the news; fingers crossed that the $100 lotto/gamble they made will pay off and hoping that fate is on their side. Funny thing too to help illustrate the horrendous odds of earnings ... this earnings report posted a surprise BEAT; so, rightfully so, the price rocketed right up! However, that rocket landed SMACK DAB in a supply zone. So, to the person trading earnings scratching their head as to what the heck happened to the stock after posting such a great report??? Well, lets look: you bought in a chop zone where the market was already indecisive of where to go and the report did nothing more than to SPEED UP THE PROCESS of helping the stock price either go to a demand or a supply zone. Here, earnings, I suppose, just helped to accelerate time a little bit and pushed it straight to supply. Once it got there, there were a whole lot of sellers waiting to just dump their holdings. And, ironically, at the same time, you have all of your Earnings "Winners" locking in their profit, also dumping off their holdings. Result = good earnings report > massive price swing to the negative If this is too long, I apologize. I just hope this makes sense and hopefully helps to illustrate to people my reasoning as to why I don't trade earnings. Seriously, I couldn't tell you when an earnings report is on any of the stocks I trade. The only time I look to when earnings are is to help me decide how far out in time to purchase or sell my putts or calls. Meaning, if I was going to buy 6 weeks out and find out that that expiration lands right on earnings, then I will SKIP THIS DATE and go out maybe 8 weeks or go shorter to maybe 4 weeks out BECAUSE I do not want to buy elevated implied volatility due to an event that has absolutely no bearing on how I trade. Let the trade set-up establish itself FIRST; don't trade hoping for a set-up to happen...
NASDAQ:NFLXEducation
by PT_Marche
8
Beginner Technical Analysis 101 - Support and ResisitanceBeginner Technical Analysis 101 - Support and Resistance. When you are first learning to trade, the charts can seem very daunting. I wanted to share with you a quick lesson in market structure that will help you understand a few things. You know how you don't see any nice cars around until you buy a nice car, and then they are everywhere? Actually they were there all along, but your brain wasn't programmed to see them. I won't get into the way the RAS works in your head but basically you didn't know what to look for so why would you see it? Trading is the same and I'm going to show you something here that will make you see charts totally differently forever - promise. This is a basic concept of technical analysis in trading and one of the first things I do when I look at sizing up any trade. It's called Support and Resistance. The concept is simple, prices of assets and contracts have particular levels that they react to. They may rise to a level and then (seemingly miraculously turn and fall back down. As a trader this is disheartening if you don't know whats happening. In fact, its a very simple concept. When price hits a certain point and turn back down, we call this resistance. When a price falls and then turns back up, we call this support. The really interesting thing is this - Resistance, once broken, becomes support. Support once broken, becomes resistance. It's one of the most basic, yet most powerful principles in trading and professional traders would never enter ANY trade without knowing their Sup and Res levels. I've drawn a chart (don't judge me I'm not an artist I'm a trader) to highlight this point. Now you know a secret of the market. You know something most people will never know and next time you see a change in a stock price, think to yourself - "I wonder if it hit resistance" - because it probably did If you want to learn more about trading and do some real education, I'm happy to recommend books and courses. Happy trading and good luck!
ASX:XJOEducation
by glennleese
Support And Resistance – The House! EICHERMOTOR.----------------------------------Support And Resistance – The House!---------------------------------- Support and Resistance explanation: Imagine that you are looking at a vertical cross-section of an "Old fashioned dolls house " which is shown in the schematic. Now you can see all the floors and ceilings in the house, and as you can see here we have a ground floor, first floor, second floor, and roof. The market then moves lower, having reversed, back to the floor, where it consolidates. The concept of Support and resistance is important for a number of reasons. --> First, as we have already seen, a breakout from a consolidation phase can be validated with volume , and if confirmed, provides excellent trading opportunities . The so-called breakout trade s. It is a WIN/WIN. You have the comfort of knowing that once the market has broken through a ceiling of price resistance, not only does this become a floor of price support, it has also become a barrier of price protection in the event of any short term re-test of this area. Any stop loss, for example, could then be placed in the lower regions of the price congestion. This is why breakout trading is so popular.
NSE:EICHERMOTEducation
by Trade-Technique
71
Identifying support and resistance levels for day tradingCheck out my video on how to identify support & resistance and other key levels to prepare for day trading session. I am using S&P 500 futures CME_MINI:ES1! as examples to prepare for trading session on 16 & 17 Apr 2020 (Thurs, Fri). Key levels I pay attention to: Previous day high Previous day low non-Regular Trading Hours (RTH) high non-RTH low Swing high from a few days ago Swing low from a few days ago Swing high/low formed during the trading timeframe (M3, M5). The day trading process is very simple. Basically just to pay attention to how the price interacts with the key levels and trade on reversal or continuation.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
The Impact of Corona on BTC (part II)The Corona virus tightens its grip on all of us as daily news comes out that causes many nations to panic. After the NY Times shared an article with the timeline of the progress of the Corona virus so far, I felt inspired to plot it against the price of Bitcoin. I published an earlier version on this before that was very successful, so I decided to do a follow-up. You can find a timeline here, based on the article where you can see for yourself how Corona impacted the price of BTC and how the subsequent panic caused many people to sell their assets. People didn't just sell their stocks, bot they even emptied their crypto wallets. JAN. 11 China reported its first death. JAN. 20 Other countries, including the United States, confirmed cases. JAN. 23 Wuhan, a city of more than 11 million, was cut off by the Chinese authorities. JAN. 30 The W.H.O. declared a global health emergency. JAN. 31 The Trump administration restricted travel from China FEB. 2 The first coronavirus death was reported outside China. FEB. 7 A Chinese doctor who tried to raise the alarm died. FEB. 13 There were more than 14,000 new cases in Hubei Province. FEB. 14 France announces the first coronavirus death in Europe. FEB. 19 Hundreds leave the quarantined cruise ship. FEB. 21 The virus appears in Iran from an unknown source. FEB. 23 Italy sees major surge in coronavirus cases and officials lock down towns. FEB. 24 The Trump administration asks Congress for $1.25 billion for coronavirus response. FEB. 24 Iran emerges as a second focus point of the virus. FEB. 26 Latin America reports its first coronavirus case. FEB. 28 The number of infections in Europe spikes. FEB. 28 Sub-Saharan Africa records its first infection. FEB. 29 The United States records its first coronavirus death and announces travel restrictions. MARCH 3 U.S. officials approve widespread coronavirus testing. MARCH 11 President Trump blocks most visitors from Continental Europe. MARCH 13 President Trump declares a national emergency. MARCH 15 The C.D.C. recommends no gatherings of 50 or more people in the U.S. MARCH 16 Latin America begins to feel the affects of the virus. MARCH 17 France imposes a nationwide lockdown. MARCH 17 The E.U. bars most travelers from outside the bloc for 30 days. MARCH 19 For the first time, China reports zero local infections. MARCH 23 Prime Minister Boris Johnson locks Britain down. MARCH 24 India, a country of 1.3 billion, announces a 21-day lockdown. MARCH 25 The United States leads the world in confirmed coronavirus cases. MARCH 27 Trump signs coronavirus stimulus bill into law. APRIL 2 Global cases top 1 million, and millions loser their jobs. APRIL 6 Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved into intensive care. APRIL 12 Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved into intensive care. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru
Education
by Trading-Guru
15
EURJPY using the pivot point high low indicator (11 Arpil)playing with more tools. This PP indicator helps to amplify any significant concentrations of activity. Here, you can see an example where there was a double bottom. The PP indicator plotted an 2 key candles. Coincidentally, they also broke a key previous support. You can see the very low activity to the left. You can compare to sell pressure to the buy pressure. You can see the logic behind the volume situation: low sell pressure + high demand pressure = and imbalance of supply and demand where there was more demand than supply, allowing for a path of least resistance and a counter-trend opportunity. There are other factors to always take into account (health of trend, strength or weakness in the background, news etc). This is just an isolated example that i thought might be useful to see if using volume analysis in your trading. another day in lock down. Hope all is good for all. Hang in there. Practice*
Education
by dee718
Will it happen again for S&P500 Future ES using analog from 20088 Apr 2020 recap - S&P500 e-mini futures CME_MINI:ES1! had a strong rally up and closed near the high around 2750. The strong price action has totally ignored the bearish tone set in 7 Apr 2020, where ES was up more than more than 3% but closed down on the day. In 2008, similar situation had happened a few times, such as on 3, 14, 17 Oct 2008. Every times after the price rejection, ES started a downswing. If we pay close attention to 17-18 Oct 2008, it is similar to ES current situation (7-8 Apr 2020) because the rejection bar was followed by a strong demand bar both in 2008 and 2020. Yet, a down swing was followed in 2008 after the strong demand bar, as shown in the chart as illustrated. Historical analog is good for reference and keep us to anticipate potential scenarios. However, always trade according to the charts. So far, ES does not show any emergence of supply., which is a bullish sign. Could it grind higher to stretch to around 2800? Bias - neutral. A range bound between 2630-2750 can be expected. A break below 2600-2630 will validate the up thrust scenario. A break above 2750 should see a test of 2800. Key levels - Resistance: 2750-2780 Support: 2700, 2600-2630. Potential intraday setup - A short entry is preferred. Pay close attention on how the price interacts with the key levels, swing high, swing low, neckline, etc...
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
Up Thrust of ES S&P500 future - What's next move?7 Apr 2020 recap - S&P500 e-mini futures (ES) tested the target around 2700-2770 yesterday and had an up thrust movement on level 2700 before closing below 2650, as per my trading idea yesterday. It had a great run-up during the non regular trading hours (RTH). However, weakness did show up during the US session. ES was rejected from the target 2700-2770 with increasing supply. The down wave is the greatest for the H1 trend started from the low at 2450, suggests a change of character, which means that the up move could stop at least for now, into a trading range or even a reversal to move down. During today's non-RTH session, ES had a weak rally up, tested only 50% of the last hour bar from yesterday followed by a reversal bar, which could be a sign of weakness. Should ES break below the support levels at 2600-2635, it could test lower targets like 2400-2450 or even the selling climax's low at 2174. However, if the levels 2600-2635 are defended, with absorption characteristics, ES could test the swing high at around 2750 and possible to grind higher. Bias - bearish. Expect a break of 2600-2630 to test lower. Key levels - Resistance: 2650-2700 Support: 2600-2630. Swing high and swing low from lower timeframe. Potential intraday setup - look for an up thrust or test of swing high at 2658, 2680 and/or key levels followed by a reversal to short. If ES can commit below 2600, I will consider to switch the position to swing trade instead of day-trading.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong