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Supply and Demand

I said I wouldn't want to be short after the shakeout Friday...Good Monday morning, traders. Last Friday I warned, after the shakeout, that I wouldn't want to be short as it appeared the larger interests were filling longs. Fast forward to today and here we stand this morning at about $300, on average, higher than that shakeout. So what does this mean for our current situation? Are we going up or down? After this morning's move, most RSIs below the 12H are topped out having either went well into oversold or at least hit it. It also appears we are transitioning from lower lows and highs to higher lows and highs which would insinuate a trend reversal. In terms of the IHS that everyone is watching, we do see expanding volume as the right shoulder is being completed. A close above $6900 would set retail FOMO into motion. This is what I am expecting to see happen. I do believe we are bullish at this time. That doesn't mean we will definitely set an ATH from this point, just that we should expect more upward momentum rather than downward for now. We can see that price hit resistance at the 78.6 retracement of the move up from $5780-$6839.40. As I mentioned last week during our live streams, a break to the upside of the DBW should find resistance at the top of the wedge, and if price pushed through that then we would see a push to the previous period's pivot. The waiting supply zone is noted between $6750 and $6900. It's been hit multiple times already which I stated would likely see it not withstand another attempt at it. At this time, OBV is also preparing for a push through its immediate resistance on the 1H. A push through would set up price's push through the aforementioned SZ. Although the chart does appear bullish at this time, a failure to continue this bullish momentum would likely result in a retest of the corrective cycle's low. Price needs to close above $6900 to fuel the movement with further momentum. The last time the 1H RSI was this high was during the April 12th short squeeze. Retracement is needed, but current bullishness could see price attempting to head higher before any meaningful retracement happens. If we do see retracement, then we want to make sure that $6400 holds. As long as it does, we should expect to see price ready itself for a push through the SZ. A close above this SZ should have price targeting $7800-$7900. Don't forget, you can always click on the "share" button at the lower right under the chart and then click on "Make it Mine" to bring up the live chart so that you can explore it as you would like to.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
9
silver Long term viewFundamentally silver is one of the most undervalued asset on the market. I believe this year at some point we will see a breakout to the upside on silver, price is currently showing a coil pattern. The silver market is one of the smallest in the world and any significant order can cause price to move fast. I believe smart money has been accumulating long positions ready for the upcoming bull market. Silver at this price cant sustain itself as its near its mining cost, demand is outweighing current supply, this all supports my analysis. *Demand exceeds Supply *near mining costs *not kept up with inflation * Gold/silver ratio at extreme highs *price is strongly supported at $16.50 *one of the most undervalued assets compared to stocks ,bonds , real estate
TVC:SILVEREducation
by gdallas96023
Currency StrengthCurrently, USD benefits from two forces that build up sentiment worth mentioning, the Peace Summit and the FED meeting. However, powers are already fainting. Buying power of both currencies is exceeding selling power, however in USDJPY (UJ) there can only be one the strongest. So here it may look JPY is being sold mainly but it's merely aiming down because in the UJ relation the balance of buying against selling is in favor of the USD. Direction of the individual currencies steer the pair of the two. In this case of chart layout, divergence sends USDJPY up and convergence USDJPY down.
Education
by Deep-Peat-Shark
3
USDTRY - Be wary of Intervention ex-post Rapid MovesTraders layering into TRY potentially got burnt last week as the Turkish Central Bank intervened to halt the local currency's worrying devaluation by raising interest rates by a whopping 3% Whilst i tend to let the majority of fundamental data pass me by , it often pays to atleast maintain a health awareness of key macro factors that might have a direct impact on any currency pairs you are trading or tracking (this is different to following any random commentator's subjective opinion) While I do not like setting upside targets , it can pay to trail stops at healthy profit levels during large abnormal moves so as not to give back profits (we saw this in crypto in Dec 17) adn if we miss the big move initially wait for natural pullbacks / consolidations rather than chase an entry. There will ALWAYS be a pullback or another instruments that will offer the next big move. Worst thing to do is chase an entry through FOMO , get burnt and then be paralysed the next time a big opportunity presents itself. Stay rational, stay calm and nimble
Education
by TJP_Trader
The importance of admitting you were wrong. I was wrong. Sorry.Hello. I have changed my background, I realized the full white one just blasts the human eye. Better go for something more easy on the eyes. I have to make a 180° on my previous bear position. In the trading & investing world, it is important to realize you were wrong and stay humble. If you don't, that's when you end up destroying your account. From what I saw I believed it very likely we drop all the way to 3500 before going to a bull market. I don't know if I said this exactly, but I at least might have led people to believe this. I was wrong. This is not likely. I zoomed out and saw what was happening around me, and I now strongly believe I was wrong. I am a bear no more. Believing we are going to reproduce 2014 crash and bounce on whatever trendline because it "looks similar" is stupid (I already posted an idea about this). I have now turned to an Orca. You know, the second biggest predator on the planet, and the most cruel animal on the planet, they love to torture their prey for hours before eating it. It's over. Bubble is about to pop. I will first show the graph for the short term. I guess that's what we're going to do, but that doesn't matter, I will next show what will happen long term. And it is not pretty. There's going to be blood in the streets and I'm not speaking metaphorically. A death cross will happen tonight, unless the bulls can push the price to 17000$. There's probably some of them that think it's possible. I also forgot to show the weekly MA 10, yet another resistance in the area. We are still following the usual bubble pattern and it's looking like 2014, I just think this time it will be worse. I'll explain later. There's so much data I don't know if I can throw it out all at once. I wanted to say, at my workplace there's this programmer guy, midly shy guy, just your average programmer I guess, back in early december when I started working closer to him he was pretty euphoric alwyas smiling laughing and extroverted I was wondering why he liked me so much gay or something? Well he started isolating himself 2 months ago "to focus on work" and complaining more and more and working long hours, and now, haven't seen him for 3 weeks he's having "medical" issues. After the double top to 11k when we went down he started being isolated and below 9k that's when he just vanished. I guess he's one of the victims. I hope for his health we crash soon? I guess? So he can sell, lose his money maybe, but at least he's free. Or maybe he sold and then bought back in on the "back to normal". In a while, we will get the suicide stories, the divorces and homeless people, there will be a ton of them. People are extremely stupid. The more something goes up, the more idiots put everything they have in and get lucky, the more the next people will put in. There has already been suicides. But it will get worse. Much, much worse. South Korea is going to be a bloodbath. Their "millenial" population was already deep in shit, but boy oh boy it's going to get worse. They thought crypto was the miracle magical thing that will give every one free magical money. It will end up being hell. Their doom. I'm betting on hundred of suicides at the VERY LEAST. ONE thing can save the bagholders now. A very evil person or group with alot of money that pumps crypto (not even sure it'll work out) to scam at a higher price, more people. It would end even more badly... But if they get caught what would happen to them would be worse than Mussolini Ghadaffi or 'Abd al-Ilah from Iraq. Let's zoom out and see where we are now: We have visited the long term investor average buy price twice, just like in 2014, and they have supported Bitcoin. The second time, we dug deep and found very strong support, bounced 100% to a double top (again). I will continue in an update.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
42
Following The Composite Operator via Wyckoff EyesWYCKOFF ACCUMULATION Everything was going fine, but so much supply volume was too unexpected, and the absorption of supply by the Composite operators is yet to occur, I expect there will be a slow , low volume "Creek" which will be engineered to test the supply levels in the bottom of the trading range, it can be the immediate previous low test as i have marked, or low of the Secondary test or even the Selling Climax low... Will be interesting to note the supply volumes there on this expected dip... The lesser the better, and the faster will be the phase C and D transition from Current Phase B of Accumulation, to the Ultimate MArkup.. Disclaimer.. Not an investing/trading recommendation
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by capsule91
17
Supply and Demand - Basic Concept I thought I would do a quick video and give a bare bones overview of the basic concept of supply and demand. Personally, I've stopped using indicators other than a few moving averages and simply started to look for supply and demand zones and a few bullish and bearish candle patterns. oh... and i'm a fan of using trendline breaks and measured moves. Anyway, as i said, this is just a quick high level of supply and demand. I hope you enjoyed the video and i would appreciate any feedback (good or bad).
Education
by Crypto_Sid
9
VIX and SPY moving in tandem?See callout bubbles. This is very strange and worth looking into further. The VIX and SPY certainly *can* move in tandem with each other, but a majority of the time, as the market is UP, the VIX is DOWN. As markets rise, price is *less* volatile. As markets fall, price is *more* volatile. Why might the VIX be moving up along with the SPY? Nobody can say for sure, but as traders we need to see these patterns, factor them into our analysis, and be ready for whatever may lie ahead. I hope these two little charts are both helpful and useful to you in your analysis. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Simple_Renko
How to pick a level to buy or sell at effectively?Cause and effect. That's all that you really need to know. Always ask yourself, 'which area started the move that caused a long term key level to break?' What is this important? Because it shows a clear supply and demand imbalance at that price. It shows that there is interest at this specific zone, at which, there is likely to be unfilled pending orders, as well as a desire to initiate market orders on a return to the zone. This is why you might notice that sometimes when you trade a breakout, the market may have a deeper retrace into the level, rather than simply using the broken level as support or resistance (and then stopping you out). You have to interpret price alongside technical analysis, since the market doesn't care about what YOU think, but where it can find the best liquidity to initiate orders. In the Cable example shown, you can see that the $1.70 level played a key part in knowing where price support was on the move up to $2.00+. Using the weekly chart, we can then see where our 'key zone' to sell into is. This is denoted as a supply zone - where you see a bullish candle in a down move just before the key support is broken (or the first bullish candle just before the support is broken). The opposite is true for a demand zone - this is where you see a bearish candle just before the key resistance is broken (or the first bearish candle before a level is broken). This method is very easy in terms of risk management - your stop goes above the supply zone and below the demand zone. I then have a take profit at the next key level - you're just trading between zones. When you become used to this, you can then go down in your timeframes and have more intraday positions, or intrahour if you so wish. A few things - it's easier to manage risk on a longer term trade. It's also easier to increase position sizing on longer term trades, as well as higher timeframes having more overall significance and a higher win rate, although the opportunity cost of this is the fact that you have less frequent opportunities and it requires a hell of a lot more patience.
Education
by FinkPro
Exactly how I decided to bail before the fall.To clarify an earlier post, I thought I would explain the signs that told me to sell my coins just before the beginning of the recent fall, in the hopes that it might help someone at some point in the future if they see something similar. It also helps me to write my thoughts down. A dramatic price rise can be seen on the chart as the popularity of cryptocurrencies caught the imagination of the masses. Since supply is relatively limited (new coins only appear through mining and the release of brand new types of coin), then as demand shot up, so did the price. It reached a point of correction (a peak), from where it fell hard until it found/formed a level of support. It bounced up from that, but fell down again, temporarily breaking its support (a spring before an upthrust). The rise of the upthrust found, and established, a level of resistance, then fell back down to the same, previous, level of support. At this point a triangular consolidation is becoming apparent, one with fast falling highs and angles pointing downward. Then the price bounces off the support of the bottom triangle again, but this time it is different because two things have just happened: The MACD has made it clear that the sellers are NOT exhausted, but that the buyers ARE exhausted. So, this rise is likely to fail because of the weak bulls, then fall hard because of the strong bears (becoming a powerful test of the support). The consolidation pattern was going to breakout at some point, because as the amplitude of the price range narrows (the highs and lows get closer as we move toward the point of the triangle) pressure builds in the volatility-loving World of cryptocurrency. The signs were that a breakout would be downwards, and made a more likely occurrence by the evidence of the strong bears and weak bulls in the preceding MACD cycle. Though it could have carried trading on within the triangle, or even had a breakout upwards. That time of the bulls buying seemed like a good time to sell and get out. The fall that followed began a series of consolidation triangles, each pushing the price down further; I am not a fan of shorting, so the rises within these triangles were good to ride (charts can be seen in some of my other posts). I hope someone finds this useful. Thanks for reading. Best wishes and good luck to you all.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by olivernash
The warning signs of the downturn. 2017 brought incredible popularity to cryptocurrencies and the market now contains a lot more people prone to 'fear of missing out' and panic selling. As a result the chances of a currency finding price stability at the end of a consolidation are slim, so as price amplitude gets narrow it tends to drop (or shoot up) and enter yet another consolidation pattern. In situations like this, professional traders with large accounts can wait for the price to drop as amateur traders (understandably, and perhaps sensibly) jump in on the panic selling. Luckily, I sold all my coins the day before this big fall began. I did this because, following the rises of 2017, several major cryptocurrencies had been consolidating in a similar way to that of Bitcoin seen in the chart above. I could have lost out had prices broke from the consolidation triangle in an upward direction, but the cryptomarket as a whole was coiling for something and I could not call which way it was heading and the signs hinted at a breakout downwards, so I preferred to pull out and watched. Currently, those major cryptocurrencies are now experiencing similar downward repeated consolidation patterns (example can be seen in my linked chart (BTCUSD: Here we go again...). Now, for me, it is worth riding some of the waves in these consolidation patterns and waiting for the bottom of this long fall to appear. The ultimate bounce back up from a drop such as this will likely be very nice. A good example of a rise followed by a fall is in the SHCOMP chart between 2014 and 2016, as pointed out by tntsunrise in his post: 'BTCUSD don't chase high' What to do now? As Warren Buffett might say, "Buy when others are selling". Though perhaps in the World of cyrptocurrency it is safer to, "buy when others have finished selling". I posted this in education, but I am not teaching; I am learning.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by olivernash
2
Trends are THE MOST IMPORTANT tool in the toolbox.Hello Traders. Hope everyone is staying warm. Snow and zero degree temperatures expected in Virginia. Many traders use many different indicators. There are so many its impossible to tell which ones are useful. Simplicity is key. The most important tool in a traders toolbox is the ability to deceiver the prevailing trend. Using higher high/ lower low analysis we can identify the difference between strong market moves and weaker ones. This stems from the well known philosophy that in order for markets to continue moving in the correct direction they need to confirm momentum shift before making large moves. -Resistance is considered overhead levels that price struggles to break AND CLOSE above. -Support is considered under price levels that price struggles to break AND CLOSE below. Notice how I mention, AND CLOSE. It is 100% required that price CLOSES above the support or resistance level to declare it broken on whatever time frame chart being traded. After the perfect head and shoulders pattern unfolded many traders continued to short EURUSD without much success (Took a stop loss myself) One must recognize the downward momentum was triggered by the bearish head and shoulders pattern (see attached post, traded perfectly.) In actuality the trend is still bullish. At the end of the head and shoulders move, trend reversed only briefly. Price was unable to break the low before moving higher. At (1) the first top was made. After making new highs, we always expect a retest of old resistance confirming support. (2) Price came back and tested old resistance, confirming support in a reckless fashion. This wiped all long traders out and assured direction for short traders who were burned before. Once everyone was mixed up, the trend prevailed to the upside. Now we find ourselves at (3). New highs have been confirmed so price is expected to retest old resistance to confirm as support around the 1.19500ish level. At this level I will be watching diligently for signs of rejection and ready to take entry on a single close of any rejection formations. If we confirm price action, targets are estimated around 1.2300. IF you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! TElphee – Self-made Technical Analyst. 5-year market enthusiast with experience in Forex, Futures and Cryptocurrencies. Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. This is NOT investment advice.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
8
THE IMPORTANCE OF VOLUME ANALYSIS: Part IIThe wave is currently finalized and is working as planned: I ended the previous post pointing at the lack of the volume required to confirm trend reversal at supposed point 5. And in fact, for quite a while the price kept slowly drifting up and down without substantial moves in any direction. This situation lasted until bearish volume spike on 07/11 that initiated real trend reversal. It is also necessary to point out that though that spike was only medium in nature, but the change in its volume compared to previous data was sudden and drastic. Later the volume changes were driving the price accordingly up and down, but most importantly the local bearish trend was established and continued successfully. Currently, the price is close to the crossing of the line 2-4 at which volume dynamics should be carefully monitored as this may provide a good tip if this is really the end of the analyzed downtrend. If you have any questions, feel free to ask in comments or PM me.
OANDA:UK100GBPEducation
by OceanBlue