How Market Dynamics Can Improve Your Trades█ Understanding Optimal Trading Strategies: How Market Dynamics Can Improve Your Trades
As traders, whether seasoned professionals or newcomers to the market, we're constantly looking for ways to improve our trading strategies and reduce costs. One area that often goes overlooked is the dynamic nature of supply and demand in the market and how it can impact your trades. In this article, we'll break down the key insights from a study on optimal trading strategies and show you how this knowledge can be applied to enhance your trading performance.
█ The Basics: What You Need to Know About Supply and Demand Dynamics
When you place a trade, you're interacting with the market's supply and demand. Traditionally, many traders think of supply and demand in static terms—like the bid-ask spread or how deep the market is at any given moment. However, the reality is that supply and demand are dynamic—they change over time, especially after a trade is executed. One of the most important concepts from the study is market resilience. This refers to how quickly the market returns to its normal state after a trade has been placed. In simple terms, resilience is how fast new buy or sell orders come in after you've placed your trade. Understanding this can be a game-changer for your trading strategy.
█ The Strategy: Combining Large and Small Trades for Optimal Results
The study suggests an optimal trading strategy that might seem counterintuitive at first. Instead of splitting your trades evenly over time, it recommends a mix of large and small trades. Here’s how it works:
Start with a Large Trade: Begin with a significant trade that moves the market slightly. This "shakes up" the market and attracts new orders from other traders who see the opportunity.
Follow with Smaller Trades: After the initial large trade, continue with smaller, more frequent trades. These smaller trades allow you to absorb the new orders that come in without pushing the market too far in either direction.
Finish with Another Large Trade: As you approach the end of your trading window, place another large trade to complete your order. At this point, you're less concerned about future market conditions since your goal is to finalize the transaction.
█ Why This Strategy Works
This approach leverages the dynamic nature of the market. By starting with a large trade, you create a temporary imbalance that encourages other traders to place orders, which you can then capitalize on with your smaller trades. The key is understanding that markets don’t just respond to one trade—they continuously adjust. By strategically timing your trades, you can reduce the overall cost of execution.
█ How Retail Traders Can Apply This Knowledge
Even if you're trading smaller volumes, you can still benefit from understanding market dynamics. Here’s how you can apply these principles to your own trading:
Observe Market Depth and Liquidity: Before placing a trade, take a look at the market depth (how many buy and sell orders are available at different price levels) and consider the market's resilience. If the market is less liquid, be cautious about placing large trades all at once.
Adjust Your Trade Sizes: Instead of placing a single large order, consider breaking it up. Start with a larger trade to test the market, then follow up with smaller trades to take advantage of the new orders that might come in.
Be Mindful of Timing: Spread out your trades over time, especially in less liquid markets. This can help you avoid moving the market too much and keep your trading costs lower.
█ For Retail Traders Without Access to the Order Book: How to Spot Big Players
Not all retail traders have access to the order book or sophisticated market data. However, you can still benefit from the principles of dynamic supply and demand by analyzing price charts directly. Here's how you can do it:
⚪ Look for Imbalances in the Price Chart: When a large player enters the market, their trades can create noticeable imbalances in the price action. For example, if you see a sharp move in price followed by a series of smaller movements in the same direction, it could indicate that a big player has started trading and is following up with smaller trades, just as the strategy suggests.
⚪ Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Fair Value Gaps are areas on a price chart where there is little to no trading activity, often due to a large, quick movement in price. These gaps can serve as clues that a large order has just been executed, leading to a temporary imbalance. When the market later returns to these gaps, it can be an opportunity to place trades in the direction of the original move, anticipating that the large player might continue to influence the market.
█ The Big Takeaway: Trading Isn’t Just About Prices—It’s About Timing
Understanding that supply and demand in the market are constantly changing can give you a significant edge. By timing your trades strategically and mixing large and small orders, you can reduce the impact of your trades on the market, ultimately saving on costs and improving your returns. Whether you're a retail trader managing a small portfolio or a professional handling large orders, these principles can be applied to improve your trading strategy. And even if you don’t have access to the order book, studying price imbalances, Fair Value Gaps, and other price action cues can help you detect the underlying intentions of big players, allowing you to trade more effectively in their wake.
The next time you plan a trade, remember: it's not just about what you trade, but how and when you trade that can make all the difference.
█ Reference
Obizhaeva, A. A., & Wang, J. (2013). Optimal trading strategy and supply/demand dynamics. Journal of Financial Markets, 16, 1–32.
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Supply and Demand
75: Comprehensive Guide to Volume Profiles and Volume in TradingWhat is a Volume Profile?
A Volume Profile is an advanced charting tool that plots the amount of trading activity (volume) across different price levels over a specific period. Unlike traditional volume indicators that only show volume over time, Volume Profiles provide insights into where the majority of trading took place, highlighting key areas of support and resistance, as well as zones of high and low interest among traders.
Key Components of Volume Profiles:
1. Point of Control (POC) : This is the price level where the highest volume of trades occurred. The POC is a crucial level because it represents the price at which traders found the most value, making it a strong indicator of support or resistance.
2. Value Area (VA) : The Value Area represents the range of prices where approximately 70% of the volume was traded. This area is divided into the Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL). The VA is significant because it identifies the zone where most market participants were active, providing a clear picture of market consensus on value.
3. High Volume Nodes (HVN) and Low Volume Nodes (LVN) : HVNs are price levels where there was a large amount of trading activity, indicating significant interest and often serving as strong support or resistance levels. LVNs, on the other hand, represent areas with minimal trading activity, where prices tend to move quickly due to the lack of interest.
The Importance of Volume in Trading
Volume is a fundamental aspect of market analysis, offering insights into the strength and sustainability of price movements. It reflects the level of participation in a market, indicating the intensity of buying or selling at different price levels.
- Confirmation of Price Movements : High volume confirms the legitimacy of a price move. For example, a price breakout from a resistance level on high volume is more likely to be sustained than one on low volume.
- Reversals and Continuations : Spikes in volume can signal potential reversals, especially when occurring at significant price levels such as the POC or near the VA boundaries. Conversely, a sustained high volume along a trend can indicate its continuation.
- Validation of Support and Resistance : Volume at key levels like the POC, VAH, and VAL helps validate these areas as strong support or resistance. When price interacts with these levels on high volume, it suggests that many market participants are active, reinforcing the importance of these price levels.
How to Interpret and Use Volume Profiles:
1. Identifying Key Price Levels :
- The POC acts as a magnet for price, often drawing the price back to it when it moves away. This level is crucial for identifying potential areas of reversal or consolidation.
- The Value Area is where the majority of the trading activity occurs. Prices above the VAH might indicate an overbought condition, while prices below the VAL could suggest an oversold market.
2. Volume and Market Sentiment :
- High Volume Nodes indicate areas of significant interest, where prices tend to stabilize due to heavy trading. These areas often become zones of accumulation or distribution, depending on market conditions.
- Low Volume Nodes indicate price levels with minimal trading interest, where prices may move quickly and encounter less resistance, often leading to rapid price changes or breakouts.
3. Order Flow and Large Volume Blocks :
- Large blocks of volume, particularly at HVNs, suggest the presence of institutional traders or significant market participants placing large orders. These zones are critical because they reflect where big players are accumulating or distributing their positions. As a result, these areas tend to create strong support or resistance levels that can define future market behavior.
4. Dynamic vs. Static Profiles :
- Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR): This type of profile updates as you scroll through your chart, dynamically showing the volume distribution for the visible price range. It’s useful for analyzing the current market context and finding immediate trading opportunities.
- Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP): This profile is static, showing volume data for a specified price range or time period. It’s valuable for comparing current price action to historical data, helping identify long-term support and resistance levels.
Practical Tips for Using Volume Profiles :
1. Customization and Settings :
- Adjust the number of rows or ticks per row in your Volume Profile settings to get a more detailed or broader view of volume distribution. More rows will give you finer detail, while fewer rows will smooth out the data, highlighting major trends.
2. Combining with Other Indicators :
- Use Volume Profiles in conjunction with other technical indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD to confirm trading signals and enhance the reliability of your analysis.
3. Adapting to Different Timeframes :
- Tailor your Volume Profile analysis to your trading style. For day traders, shorter timeframes (e.g., 5, 15, 30 minutes) might be more relevant, while swing traders or investors might focus on daily, weekly, or even monthly profiles to identify long-term trends and key levels.
4. Observing Market Reactions at Key Levels :
- Pay close attention to how the market reacts when it approaches HVNs, LVNs, the POC, or the boundaries of the Value Area. These reactions can provide clues about future price movements and potential trading opportunities.
Volume Profiles offer a deep and nuanced view of market behavior by highlighting where significant trading activity has occurred at different price levels. By understanding the interaction between volume and price, traders can make more informed decisions, identify key levels for entry and exit, and gain insights into market sentiment. Integrating Volume Profile analysis into your trading strategy can provide a significant edge, enhancing your ability to navigate the complexities of financial markets.
What is Support and Resistance in Trading. Key Levels Basics
In the today's article, we will discuss the absolute basics of technical analysis: support and resistance levels.
I will explain to you why support and resistance are important , how to identify them properly, and we will discuss what is the difference between support and resistance level and support or resistance zone.
Let's start with a definition of a support .
A support is a historically significant price level that lies below the current prices of an asset.
While a resistance is a historically significant price level that is above the current prices.
From a key resistance, a bearish movement will be anticipated in futures, while from a key support, a bullish reaction will be expected.
Take a look at EURAUD pair, we can see a perfect example of a key resistance level.
2 times in a row, the market dropped from that in the past, confirming its significance.
By a historical significance , I mean that the price reacted strongly to such price level in the past and a strong bullish, bearish movement initiated from that.
Above is the example of a key horizontal support on EURCHF. The underlined key level was respected by the market multiple times in the past.
From time to time, the market breaks key levels.
After a breakout , a support turns into resistance
and a resistance turns into support.
Above is the example of a breakout of a key support on GBPNZD, after its violation it turned into resistance from where a bearish movement followed.
Always remember, that in order to confirm a breakout of a key support, we strictly need a candle close below that.
By the way, the structure here is also the zone, but we will discuss it later on.
Above is the example of a breakout of a key resistance, that turned into support after a violation.
Very often, newbie traders ask me, how many times the price should react to a key level to make it valid.
I do believe that 1 time is more than enough, however, make sure that the reaction to that is strong .
Above are key support and resistance on GBPCAD. Even though both structures were respected just one time in the past, the reaction to them was strong enough to confirm that the underlined levels are the key levels.
However, historical significance of a key support or resistance is not enough to make it valid.
What matters is the most recent reaction of the price to that.
Key supports and resistance lose their significance with time, and your job as a technical analyst, is to stay flexible and adapt to changing market conditions, regularly updating your analysis.
Above is a key resistance level on AUDJPY from where the market dropped heavily 2 times in a row.
However, with time, the underlined resistance lost its significance.
Such a structure is not a key level anymore.
Remember a simple rule: if a key structure is not respected by the sellers, and by the buyers after its breakout.
Or vice versa: if a key structure is not respected by the buyers, and then by the sellers after its breakout.
Such a structure is not a key level , and you should not rely on that in the future.
In our example, the resistance was broken - it was neglected by the sellers. After the breakout, it should have turned into support, but the buyers also neglected that and the structure lost its strength.
Now, a couple of words about time frames,
you can identify key support and resistances on any time frame, but
the rule is that higher is the time frame, more significant are the supports and resistances there.
In my analysis, I primarily rely on support and resistance on a daily time frame.
Always remember that the financial markets are not perfect and the prices will quite rarely respect the exact support or resistance levels.
Quite often, the markets may fluctuate around key levels so it is highly recommendable to rely not on single key levels but on zones.
I recommend taking into consideration not only the exact level from where a strong reaction followed, but also a candle close level of such a candle.
The support zone above is based on a wick and a candle close of a candle.
Also, quite often there will be the situations when multiple key levels will lie close to each other.
In such a case, it is better to unite all this structures in one single zone.
Above we see multiple key resistances.
We will unite all these resistances into one single zone. The upper boundary of a resistance zone will be the highest wick and its lower boundary will be the highest candle close.
Above we have 2 key supports lying close to each other.
We will unite these supports into one single zone.
The lower boundary of a support zone will be the lowest wick and the upper boundary will be the lowest candle close.
Here is how a complete structure analysis should look.
Following the rules that we discussed, you should identify at least 2 closest key resistances and 2 closest key supports.
These structures will be applied as the entries for various trading strategies.
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Revealing My Top Gold Trading Secrets for Huge Profits!In this video, I reveal my top trading secrets for making huge profits in gold trading (XAU/USD). This educational content will cover key technical analysis techniques and strategies that I frequently use in my charts, as well as valuable insights into trading mindset and proper risk management. Let's unlock the potential of your trading skills together!
Technical Approach:
In this educational segment, we'll focus on the core technical analysis principles that I use to make informed trading decisions. Here's a detailed breakdown of my approach:
Identifying the Trend:
Uptrends and Downtrends: Learn how to recognize market trends using higher highs and higher lows for uptrends, and lower highs and lower lows for downtrends.
Trendlines: Use trendlines to connect the highs and lows of price movements, helping to identify the direction of the trend and potential reversal points.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: Identify areas where the price tends to find support as it falls, acting as a floor preventing further decline.
Resistance Levels: Identify areas where the price tends to find resistance as it rises, acting as a ceiling preventing further ascent.
Historical Price Action: Use past price movements to pinpoint key support and resistance levels that the market respects.
Liquidity Zones (LQZ):
Definition: Liquidity zones are areas on the chart where there is a high concentration of trading activity, often leading to significant price movements.
Identification: Learn how to spot these zones using volume profiles, order flow analysis, and historical price action.
Trading Strategy: Use liquidity zones to identify potential entry and exit points, as they often precede major price moves.
Volume Analysis:
Volume Spikes: Understand how volume spikes can indicate strong buying or selling interest, confirming the validity of price movements.
Volume Trends: Analyze volume trends to gauge the strength of a price trend and anticipate potential reversals.
Entry and Stop Loss Strategies:
Breakouts and Pullbacks: Enter trades on confirmed breakouts above resistance or below support, or on pullbacks to key levels within a trend.
Trailing Stop Loss: Implement a trailing stop loss to lock in profits as the trade moves in your favor, adjusting the stop loss level as the price progresses.
Mini Lessons: Mindset:
Patience and Discipline:
Patience: Wait for the right trading setups that meet your criteria, avoiding impulsive decisions.
Discipline: Stick to your trading plan and rules, even when the market becomes volatile or unpredictable.
Emotional Control:
Stay Calm: Keep your emotions in check to avoid making irrational decisions based on fear or greed.
Mindfulness: Practice mindfulness techniques to remain focused and calm, especially during stressful trading situations.
Proper Risk Management:
Position Sizing:
Risk Per Trade: Limit the amount of capital you risk on any single trade, typically 1-2% of your trading account.
Position Size Calculation: Calculate your position size based on the distance to your stop loss and your risk tolerance.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
Target Ratio: Aim for a risk-reward ratio of at least 2:1, meaning your potential profit should be at least twice your potential loss.
Trade Evaluation: Evaluate each trade based on its risk-reward ratio before entering, ensuring it aligns with your trading strategy.
By incorporating these technical strategies and mindset principles, you can enhance your trading performance and increase your chances of success in the gold market. Stay tuned for more educational content and trading insights!
Best Trend Following Strategies for Gold. XAUUSD Day Trading
The recent bull run on Gold is a perfect example of a strong trending market. For traders, such sentiment always provides very profitable trading opportunities.
In this article, I will share with you 3 best trend-following strategies for day trading Gold that showed extremely high performance this year.
So what I did, I back tested 4H/1H time frame since the middle of February when the bull market started.
I tested various strategies: price action, SMC, multiple indicators, candlestick patterns ; and I was looking for the ones that showed the highest accuracy and profitability.
1. Moving Averages Crossover
The first strategy that showed a very high performance was based on a crossover of 2 moving averages.
Exponential MA with 30 length.
Simple MA with 9 length.
For entry signal, Simple MA should cross Exponential MA from the downside and a candle should close above both MAs'.
Stop loss will be below the closest horizontal support.
The setup is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss.
13 setups we spotted.
9 of them were profitable.
Total winning rate is 69%.
2. Trend-Following Patterns
The second strategy that showed a very high performance was based on classic price action patterns.
I was looking for bullish patterns like bullish flag, falling wedge, horizontal range, double bottom, head and shoulders, ascending triangle, cup & handle.
Bullish confirmation was a breakout and a candle close above a neckline of the pattern.
The pattern is considered to be losing if after the breakout of the neckline, the price dropped below its lows.
The pattern is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss.
From 14th of February to 8th of April, I found 37 bullish patterns.
According to the rules that I described above, 31 pattern turned out to be profitable.
That gives 83% winning rate.
3. Break of Structure (BoS)
The Break of Structure strategy is very old and based on breakouts of current highs.
In a bullish trend, after the price violates the levels of a current Higher High HH, a bullish continuation is expected.
A long trade is opened after the candle closes above HH or on a retest.
With such a strategy, Stop Loss is lying below the last Higher Low HL.
The setup is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss
For the same period, I identified 21 Breaks of Structure.
According to the rules, 18 setups were profitable.
Total win rate is 85%.
Remember that you should not overestimate the performance of these strategies. They work perfectly only in times of a strong bullish market. Such periods are extremely rare.
However, once you see a strong bullish season, these strategies will help you to get maximum from it.
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Here's How You CONSOLIDATE Your Portfolio Into WinnersGoing through my entire portfolio to judge performance vs Solana, which has been my golden goose this cycle.
I bought TSX:FIL in October 2023.
If I put that money in Solana instead, I’d be up 345% vs breakeven right now.
Obviously I’m selling that position here and flipping it into CRYPTOCAP:SOL
How to compare:
Jump onto TradingView and on the chart name type:
BINANCE:SOLUSDT/BINANCE:FILUSDT
You can swap out tickers and exchanges to compare your own portfolio.
Ultimate Trading Strategy: Reaction to Supply and Demand Levels!🔍 Identifying Potential Buy or Sell Zones: In this step, you need to identify the zones that are likely to react and wait for the price to potentially reach them. ⏳📊
🌟 With the reaction to the first area, a buy trade is activated. 🌟
📝 Confirmations:
📉 Reaction to the expected area – Watch for a price movement hitting our anticipated zone!
🛠️ Formation of a combined hammer pattern – Look out for this powerful reversal signal!
📈 Formation of a bullish engulfing pattern – A strong indicator of upward momentum!
🔍 Trading Tips:
💡 High-risk stop-loss location:
👉 Place it below the candlestick pattern. At least twice the spread to ensure you're covered! 📏🔒
💡 Lower-risk stop-loss location:
👉 Place it below the expected area. Again, at least twice the spread for extra safety! 📏🔒
💰 Take-profit strategy:
👉 Base it on risk management mathematics, such as risk-reward ratios of 2, 4, and 6.
👉 Alternatively, observe reactions to past market areas, especially near important market highs and lows. 📊📈
🎯 Entry point strategies:
👉 Enter at the close of the confirmation candle.
👉 Or, set a limit order around 50% of the confirmation candle for a bigger volume opportunity! 📉📈
🌟 Buying in Two Phases: A Smart and Exciting Strategy! 🌟
🔹 Phase One:
When you reach a profit of twice the risk, exit the trade. Why? Because the Asian high has been hunted and the candlestick formed has a long upper shadow. 🌄💹
💡 Analysis:
The price hasn’t reached other zones yet and has risen in reaction to the first expected zone. Therefore, we expect a pullback and continued upward movement. 💪📈 So, I’ll place a second buy trade. 🚀💵
🔍 Confirmations for the Second Buy Trade:
A double bottom has formed, marked with an X. ❌❌
A small hammer candlestick has swept the double bottom. 🔨
A long positive shadow candlestick has swept the bottom and reacted to a small order block on the left. 🌟
💡 Tips for the Second Buy Trade:
Enter at the close of the long-shadowed doji candlestick or place a stop limit order above the long-shadowed doji candlestick. 📉📈
The stop loss should be below this candlestick. 📏🔒
🔹 Phase Two:
Next, the price has reached an expected reaction zone from where we expected a price drop. 🌐💡
🔍 Confirmations for the Sell Trade:
Reaction to the expected zone. 🔍
An inverse hammer candlestick reacting to the zone. 🔨
💡 Tips for the Sell Trade:
The entry point should be in a candlestick with a negative signal indicating a price drop. This hammer candlestick can indicate a decline. 📉🔻
The target can be a reward of 2 or the last price bottom. 🎯💰
The stop loss should preferably be behind the expected zone. 📏🔒
🔥 Important Points!!:
Since the price hasn’t deeply penetrated the zones, there’s a chance it might go higher or even mitigate this zone twice, ultimately turning it into a pullback for a further price rise. 🚀📈
Continuing on, the price reached the upper zone area.
We expected a price drop from this zone, but it reached at 03:15,
which is outside our trading session. However, we could have traded on it.
🔍 Sell Confirmations:
The price has reached the expected zone.
An inverse hammer candlestick pattern.
💡 Interesting Fact:
If you had placed a limit order around the midpoint of the previous two zones,
you would have profited by now. So, for this zone, you can also place
a limit order around 50% of it.
Continuing further, other zones have formed below that could be useful
for new trades.
✨ Successful Sell Trade Achieved, Reaching a Reward of 4 Times the Risk.
📉 During the session continuation, the trend line was broken, triggering an upward price pullback.
🔹 Now, at the beginning of the session, we have a new zone, likely a selling order placement area. We're taking the risk on this zone. This time, we can place the trade around 50% of it. 🚀💼
🔥 Alright, what's your take now? 🔥
🌟 Is the price reacting to this level or not? 🌟
🚀📈 or 📉💥
Where are the upper zones located?
What do you think? 🤔💬
Psychological Levels and Round Numbers in Technical Analysis
When traders analyze the key levels, quite often then neglect the psychological levels in trading.
In this article, we will discuss what are the psychological levels and how to identify them .
What is Psychological Level?
Let's start with the definition.
Psychological level is a price level on a chart that has a strong significance for the market participants due to the round numbers.
By the round numbers, I imply the whole numbers that are multiples of 5, 10, 100, etc.
These levels act as strong supports and resistances and the points of interest of the market participants.
Take a look at 2 important psychological levels on EURGBP: 0.95 and 0.82. As the market approached these levels, we saw a strong reaction of the price to them.
Why Psychological Levels Work?
And here is why the psychological levels work:
Research in behavioral finance has shown that individuals exhibit a tendency to anchor their judgments and decisions to round numbers.
Such a decision-making can be attributed to the cognitive biases.
Quite often, these levels act as reference points for the market participants for setting entry, exit points and placing stop-loss orders.
Bad Psychological Levels?
However, one should remember that not all price levels based on round numbers are significant.
When one is looking for an important psychological level, he should take into consideration the historical price action.
Here are the round number based levels that I identified on AUDUSD on a weekly time frame.
After all such levels are underlined, check the historical price action and make sure that the market reacted to that at least one time in the recent past.
With the circles, I highlighted the recent reaction to the underlined levels. Such ones we will keep on the chart, while others should be removed.
Here are the psychological levels and proved their significance with a recent historical price action.
From these levels, we will look for trading opportunities.
Market Reaction to Psychological Levels
Please, note that psychological levels may trigger various reactions of the market participants.
For instance, a price approaching a round number may trigger feelings of greed, leading to increased selling pressure as traders seek to lock in profits.
Alternatively, a breakout above/below a psychological level can trigger buying/selling activity as traders anticipate further price momentum.
For that reason, it is very important to monitor the price action around such levels and look for confirmations .
Learn to identify psychological levels. They are very powerful and for you, they can become a source of tremendous profits.
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High probability Supply and demand Hello Traders.
Just to share one of the concepts that has grabbed my attention. General we turn to look for high probability areas of interests that the price can pull back to before resuming with original trend.
I have marked possible scenarios that turn to occur from time to time. obviously this goes hand in hand with premium and discount; valid BOS or CHOCH; Momentum and IMB.
Not preaching but i do hope this can clear out your views
Profitable Multiple Time Frames Smart Money Strategy Revealed
In this post, I will share with you a very accurate SMC strategy that combines top-down analysis, liquidity, imbalance, order block and inducement.
Step 1 - Identify liquidity zones on a daily
Liquidity zones are the areas on a price chart, where big players are placing their orders. From such areas, significant bullish and bearish movements initiate.
Liquidity zones that are above the current price will be the supply zones, while the liquidity zones that are below the current price will be the demand zones.
We will look for shorting opportunities from supply areas and for buying opportunities from demand zones.
Here are the liquidity zones that I identified on EURJPY.
Step 2 - Wait for a test of one of the liquidity zones
Let the market test the liquidity zone.
For buying, the price should reach a lower boundary of a demand zone.
For shorting, the price should test an upper boundary of a supply zone.
I underlined the exact levels that the price should test on EURJPY.
Here is the test of the lower boundary of the demand zone.
Step 3 - Look for inducement on an hourly time frame
With the inducement, smart money make the market participants think that the liquidity zone that the price is testing doesn't hold anymore.
When the price tests a supply area, an hourly candle close above its upper boundary will be a bullish inducement.
With that, the smart money incentivize buying orders.
When the price tests a demand area, an hourly candle close below its lower boundary will be a bearish inducement.
With that, the smart money incentivize selling orders.
The price closed below a lower boundary of a demand zone on EURJPY on 1H time frame.
Step 4 - Look for imbalance on an hourly time frame
After a violation of a supply area on an hourly time frame, look for a bearish imbalance.
Bearish imbalance is a strong bearish candle with wide range and big body. With that candle, the market should return within a supply zone and closed within or below that.
After a violation of a demand area on an hourly time frame, look for a bullish imbalance.
Bullish imbalance is a strong bullish candle with wide range and big body. With that candle, the market should return within a demand zone and closed within or above that.
Here is the example of a bullish imbalance on EURJPY.
After a bearish inducement, the price formed a high momentum bullish candle and closed within the demand zone.
The imbalance signify that a liquidity zone violation was a trap . With that, smart money simply was trying to grab the liquidity.
That will be a signal for you to open an order.
Step 5 - Look for an order block
After the formation of the imbalance, the market becomes locally week and quite often corrects to an order block.
Order block will be the closest hourly liquidity zone.
After a formation of a bearish imbalance, look for a supply zone on an hourly time frame. That will be your perfect zone to sell.
After a formation of a bullish imbalance, look for a demand zone on an hourly. That will be your area to buy from.
Here is the order block on EURJPY.
Step 6 - Set a limit order
Set a sell limit order within a supply area after a formation of bearish imbalance on an hourly time frame.
Set a buy limit order within a demand area after a formation of a bullish imbalance on an hourly.
Here is your buy entry level on EURJPY.
Step 7 - Select the target
If you sell, your target should be the closest daily structure support: horizontal or vertical one.
If you buy, your target should be the closest daily structure resistance: horizontal or vertical one.
In our example, our closest structure resistance if a falling trend line.
Step 8 - Set stop loss
If you sell, stop loss will lie above a bullish inducement.
If you buy, stop loss will lie below a bearish inducement.
Here is a perfect point for a stop loss for a long trade on EURJPY.
Step 9 - Trade
Let the price trigger your entry, and then be prepared to wait.
It took many days for EURJPY to reach the target.
Trading Tips:
1. Make sure that you have a positive reward/ratio. It should be at least 1.2
2. Risk no more that 1% of your trading account per trade
Being applied properly, that strategy shows 70%+ accuracy.
Try it by yourself and let me know your results.
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How to pick trades in different market conditionsIn the video I look at two different markets and the resultant setups which yielded the prime trades. The two markets had to be approached in different ways, especially early in the session.
I look through the price action on the DOW and then the Nasdaq. The DOW proved to be more clear cut and a trend style approach while the Nasdaq was very choppy and warranted a range or reversion style approach to the trades.
Still, both were tradable and produced some good scalps although the action had to be recognised early.
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Using Multi-Timeframe analysis for a major WinnerMulti-timeframe analysis is a key techniques for prepping a market prior to a trading session.
The first thing to do before trading is to understand the major moves and longer term price action. This enables us to get on the right side of a sessions move and avoid a lot of the chop.
We take a look at the DOW from the previous trading session and talk through the 30 min timeframe and why it was so important for the 500 pt rally into the close.
I talk through the key price action, the trap of shorts before the big move up and why we needed to be on the long side of the action.
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Learn What is Inducement and Trap in Smart Money Concepts SMC
Smart Money Concepts can be applied for the identification of trend reversal in Forex and Gold trading.
In this article, we will discuss what is an inducement and a trap in SMC . And how to apply them to spot an accurate trading signal.
We will study the important theory and go through real market examples on XAUUSD chart.
Imagine that there is a strong historical resistance on a price chart.
Because the price reacted to that strongly in the past, many sellers will place selling orders on that in future, anticipating a similar reaction.
Placing short trades, their stop losses will lie above the resistance.
In case of a bullish violation of the underlined resistance,
sellers will be stopped out from their short trades and close their positions in loss .
After the violation of a resistance, according to the rules, it should turn into support . Many traders will place their buy orders there, anticipating a bullish continuation.
Bearish violation of such a support will stop out the buyers as well.
Such a price action will be called an inducement and a bullish trap.
With that, smart money grab the liquidity both from the buyers and from the sellers.
After that, with a high probability, the market will drop .
For example, Bullish violation of an all-time-high on Gold can easily be a bullish trap.
To confirm that, the price should simply break and close below a broken horizontal resistance.
That will confirm a local bearish reversal.
With a bullish trap and inducement, smart money are quietly placing HUGE SELLING ORDERS , making the retail traders close short trades in loss (buy their positions) and buy from the broken structure, providing them the liquidity.
The ability to recognize the traps will let you understand real intentions of smart money and trade with them.
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Best Technical Indicator to Identify Liquidity Zones
Liquidity zones are the essential element of Smart Money trading . These zones provide the safest and the most accurate trading opportunities.
The problem is, however, that it is quite complicated for the newbie traders to identify these zones properly. But there is ONE technical indicator that can help.
In this article, I will show you the best technical indicator for the identification of liquidity zones.
This technical indicator is called Volume profile.
Adding that on your chart, you should look for low volume and high volume nodes.
High volume nodes indicate the price levels on the chart where big volumes were traded and a high activity of the market participants occurred.
The indicator plots 3 significant volume spikes.
These are 3 high volume nodes.
After you identified high volume nodes, you should analyse a price action and recognize related historical structures.
By related structures, I mean historical levels that were respected by the market and from where significant price movements initiated.
When you underlined these structures, you should consider the wicks and candle closes.
Low volume nodes indicate the price levels on the chart where it has been relatively little trading activity and limited participation from market participants.
These zones indicate a lack of liquidity , which can impact the ease of price movement in those areas.
Here are 2 low volume nodes that I spotted.
After you spotted low volume nodes, you should analyse a price action and recognize related historical structures.
Here are the liquidity zones that are based on low volume nodes.
Again, these areas are based on wicks and candle closes.
These 5 area will be the important liquidity zones from where Smart Money trader can look for trading opportunities.
Learn to recognize liquidity zones properly and improve your trading.
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The Boulevard of Broken Dreams. Pump and Dump Part IIRecently we watched in the news the resurrection of the "Meme Stocks" frenzy and the "Roaring Kitty" username. Those who witnessed the first surge in stocks like NYSE:AMC , NYSE:GME , NYSE:BB , etc., remember those were basically a "Make me Rich quick" kind of event, they were known as "Meme Stocks" because it all started as memes by a group of traders in internet forums who allegedly went against the Wall St. Hedge Funds who were heavily invested in shorting these stocks, by buying all at the same time and triggering a strong short squeeze.
Well, this event was the hope for this group of traders who saw the opportunity to pocket huge profits in a short time frame, and it gave them the sense of power against Wall St. That time these stocks were heavily shortened, and they were prone to an aggressive short squeeze, not only from these member of the meme stock traders, but by professional traders.
At the end of the day this group of stocks spiked, the people took profits, they left the market, some richer, some poorer, and others as bag holders. All these stocks faded along the time and some even went bankrupt. This event was imprinted in the memory of those hoping that this could happen again, but most amateur traders don't take the time to actually learn to trade, they ran with the rumor again after a fuzzy post by the "Roaring Kitty" and they just grabbed whatever was being mentioned in the forums. This time however it was very different. Their behavior was predictable and the professional traders already had a plan in advance, to short the spike. The small buying power of the meme stock traders plus their inexperience in swimming with professional sharks just turned them into an easy morning lunch. The rumor, action and shorting cycle was very fast. In the chart we can see outstanding profits in the order of hundreds of percentual points. But if we take a look at the short sale volume, we notice that the spike was immediately extinguished.
The #VolumeCandles feature of Trading View is an excellent tool to visually pinpoint the development of this pump and dump event. In the chart I added some more stocks which were rumored in the forums, NYSE:GME , NYSE:AMC , NASDAQ:KOSS , NYSE:OKLO , NASDAQ:FFIE , NASDAQ:GWAV , $CRKN. The symbols used to display the short volume were:
FINRA:GME_SHORT_VOLUME
FINRA:AMC_SHORT_VOLUME
FINRA:KOSS_SHORT_VOLUME
FINRA:OKLO_SHORT_VOLUME
FINRA:FFIE_SHORT_VOLUME
FINRA:GWAV_SHORT_VOLUME
FINRA:CRKN_SHORT_VOLUME
All of them have the same pattern,
Rumor in the meme stock forums
Frenzy buying
Immediate huge short volume
The takeaway of this presentation is, never fall for what others "rumor" in forums, trade following your own system, your money and your profit/loses are just yours, so the responsibility to plan your trade.
Buying and selling shares in the stock market is very easy, trading is not, and they're definitely not the same. #LearnToEarn.
Trapped traders provides a great Short opportunity on DOW The plan for the session was to trade short off resistance on the DOW after an initial opening drive higher. The short side was the play and paid out nicely for patient sellers.
In the video I talk through the key Price Action for the move and prime trade areas on the DOW Index.
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Learn What is Inducement and Trap in Smart Money Concepts SMC
Smart Money Concepts can be applied for the identification of trend reversal in Forex and Gold trading.
In this article, we will discuss how to apply basic SMC techniques : trap and inducement to identify early reversal signs. We will study the important theory and go through real market examples on XAUUSD chart.
Imagine that there is a strong historical resistance on a price chart.
Because the price reacted to that strongly in the past, many sellers will place selling orders on that in future, anticipating a similar reaction.
Placing short trades, their stop losses will lie above the resistance.
In case of a bullish violation of the underlined resistance,
sellers will be stopped out from their short trades and close their positions in loss.
After the violation of a resistance, according to the rules, it should turn into support . Many traders will place their buy orders there, anticipating a bullish continuation.
Bearish violation of such a support will stop out the buyers as well.
Such a price action will be called an inducement and a bullish trap.
With that, smart money grab the liquidity both from the buyers and from the sellers.
After that, with a high probability, the market will drop .
Bullish violation of an all-time-high on Gold can easily be a bullish trap.
To confirm that, the price should simply break and close below a broken horizontal resistance.
That will confirm a local bearish reversal.
With a bullish trap and inducement, smart money are quietly placing HUGE SELLING ORDERS , making the retail traders close short trades in loss (buy their positions) and buy from the broken structure, providing them the liquidity.
The ability to recognize the traps will let you understand real intentions of smart money and trade with them.
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EURUSD Trade study short/longTrade study using Asian range.
Trade went below opening candle in London session indicating bullish but wasn't noticed. Price also took the Asian lows before moving up. Price then consolidated before taking the Asian high, then took the recent swing low at lower timeframe indicating out POI. Price then eventually achieved our target Price Asian range low then took Thursdays (Asian high +4) before taking our initial Target (Asian range -1). Trading in Friday is complicated but with proper risk management we was able to take a 1:1.2rr trade
Using proper risk management is always necessary which I didn't do for some reason
NOTE : PRICE ALWAYS MOVES FOR A REASON
A Winning Trade ExplainedIn the video I explain my approach to the market and how I use 'trade sizing' to manage my risk in the initial part of the US session.
I walk through the price action for the NASDAQ and why I traded short and then flipped long. I explain the concept of sizing with regards to trade management and then how I 'SIZE UP' when I have conviction to end with a profitable session.
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Best SUPPORT and RESISTANCE Indicator to Identify Key Levels
In this article, I will show you a simple technical indicator that will help you to identify support and resistance levels easily trading any financial market.
And what I like about this indicator is that it is absolutely free and it is available on all popular trading platforms: tradingview, meta trader 4, meta trader 5, etc.
This indicator is called Zig Zag.
After adding the indicator, the price chart will look like that.
First, I recommend changing its settings.
Price deviation - 1.5
Pivot legs - 5
Here are the inputs that I recommend for structure analysis on a daily time frame.
And in style remove labels because they really distract.
What this technical indicator does, it underlines the significant impulse legs. The completion and initial points of the impulses will be the important structures.
Your key structures will be the areas based on the initial/completion points of impulses based on wicks and candle closes.
A key horizontal support will be based on the initial point of the impulse and the lowest candle close.
Key supports will be all the structures that are below current price levels.
A key horizontal resistance will be based on the initial point of the impulse and the highest candle close.
Key resistances will be all the structures that are above current price levels.
Also, the completion/initial points of the impulses will occasionally compose the vertical structures - the trend lines.
Underline all the supports/resistances based on Zig Zag indicator.
All these structures are significant and can be applied for pullback/breakout trading.
Also, remember that you can modify the inputs of the indicator.
Increase Price deviation and Pivot legs number will show the stronger structures, while decreasing these numbers more structures will appear on the chart.
On the left chart:
Price deviation - 1.5
Pivot legs - 5
On the right chart:
Price deviation - 5
Pivot legs - 10
The right chart shows just 2 structures, but very important ones.
This indicator is very powerful and it can help you a lot in learning structure analysis.
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Liquidity Hunt PatternLiquidity Hunt Pattern
Uncover Hidden Opportunities in the Market
Introduction:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is a powerful technical analysis tool that helps traders identify potential turning points in the market. By understanding how this pattern forms and its implications, traders can gain an edge in uncovering hidden opportunities and making informed trading decisions.
What is the Liquidity Hunt Pattern?
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is characterized by a series of price movements that create a distinct "W" or "M" shape on the chart. This pattern forms when large institutional players, known as "liquidity providers" enter the market to buy or sell large quantities of assets. Their actions create temporary imbalances in supply and demand, leading to price swings that can be exploited by astute traders.
Identifying the Pattern:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern consists of three key elements:
The "W" or "M" shape: This is the most recognizable feature of the pattern and is formed by a series of price swings that create the distinctive letter shape.
Volume spikes: The pattern is often accompanied by significant volume spikes, indicating the presence of large institutional activity.
Breakout or breakdown: The pattern typically resolves with a breakout or breakdown, signaling a potential change in the market direction.
Trading the Liquidity Hunt Pattern:
Traders can use the Liquidity Hunt Pattern to identify potential entry and exit points for their trades. By understanding the dynamics of the pattern, traders can:
Anticipate potential turning points: The pattern can signal potential reversals or continuations in the market trend.
Identify high-probability trading setups: The pattern can be used to identify areas where the risk-reward ratio is favorable.
Manage risk effectively: The pattern can help traders set stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage their risk exposure.
Conclusion:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is a valuable tool for traders of all levels. By understanding its formation and implications, traders can gain an edge in the market and uncover hidden opportunities for profitable trades.
How to use different timeframesHello traders and investors!
Today I'll talk about choosing the right timeframe and how you can use different timeframes when looking for trades. This will help us uncover what is hidden in this candle on the chart.
When we look at something, we are usually limited by a certain viewpoint. From this point, we only see part of the whole picture. But if we move and look from a different perspective, we will discover new details and aspects that were previously unnoticed. The same applies to analyzing the chart of a financial instrument when using different types of charts or different timeframes. This post will focus on using different timeframes. On one timeframe, it may be difficult to understand the essence of what is happening, while on another, everything can become clearer and more understandable.
I've already talked about using different timeframes when looking for trades in an educational article a few weeks ago (see the related post below). In that article, I highlighted 5 skills that help effectively trade in sideways markets. Discussing the first of them - how to combine higher and lower timeframes when looking for trades, I provided a practical example on the OPUSDT chart using the daily and hourly timeframes. In that practical example, I formulated target levels that are likely to be reached. You can see the results in the related post (see below).
I'll provide another example of choosing the right timeframe and the correlation between timeframes, using the BTCUSDT chart. This will help us uncover what is hidden in this candle on the chart.
In the update of this idea I noted that on the hourly timeframe at the contextual point of the seller (the beginning of the last seller impulse, level 66867), I didn't see an active seller and wasn't ready to join the sales at that moment. As a potential target, I indicated 62776.
So, I looked at the chart on different timeframes and searched for what remains unnoticed. On the 7-minute timeframe, I discovered a sideways movement at the contextual point of the seller (level 66867), as mentioned in the idea update with a recommendation to look for a trade after exiting the sideways movement and protecting this exit:
Now, let's analyze what happened next (on the bars chart, as bars take up less space and additional marks are better visible).
The seller broke through the lower boundary of the sideways movement at 65626.87.
The seller's impulse ended at 10:49 (New York time), when after breaking through the lower boundary of the sideways movement, the first buyer bar appeared.
The key candle(bar) of the impulse (the largest volume in the impulse) is marked on the chart as "KC". Therefore, the seller's defense of this candle or the lower boundary of the sideways movement (65626) increases the probability of further price decrease. The price range of the key candle of the impulse is highlighted on the chart (from high to close). Now let's pick a lower timeframe to see more clearly what happened before and after 10:49.
On the 1-minute timeframe by 10:49, a sideways movement formed, and at 10:49, the price attacked the upper boundary of the sideways movement (level at point 2).
The key candle of the buyer's impulse ("KC" on the chart) is in the middle of the impulse. At 10:59, the buyer attacked a new boundary of the sideways movement (level at point 6 - 65249.01). Pay attention to the volume of the attacking candle. At 11:02, the seller pressed the attack candle, forming a seller zone (red background on the chart). On the buyer's candle at 11:04 (black downward arrow on the chart), you can sell because:
On the hourly timeframe, the price is in the seller's impulse in the seller's area of interest, which defended the level 66867.
On the 7-minute timeframe, the seller broke through the lower boundary of the sideways movement.
On the 1-minute timeframe, the seller defended the level (65249.01) from the buyer's attack on a significant volume, which is within the price range of the key candle of the 7-minute timeframe impulse.
And one more interesting point. Look where the seller's resumption on the minute timeframe came from - from the 50% of the key candle of the 7-minute timeframe seller impulse.
Could the price, without reaching the target of 62776, go up? Yes, the probability of this event is not zero. And we see how the price did not reach the target by 18 dollars (black upward arrow on the chart) and turned upward. Where did the seller stop it? It stopped right there inside the key candle of the sideways movement exit on the 7-minute timeframe (black downward arrow on the chart). After that, the target of 62776 was reached.
Where to Put Your TP and SL | Learn in 10 MinutesHey Rich Friends,
This quick video will explain how I easily find my TP and SL for my Forex Trades. I've noticed how many new traders struggle with this, so hopefully this video will help. Here is what I do:
1 . Identify the overall trend of the market.
It is important to understand that a Selling market will look like a roller coaster going up, have more red candles and it will continue to create Lower Highs and Lower Lows. A Buying market will look like a roller coaster going down, have more green candles, and continue to create Higher Highs and Higher Lows. This is very important.
2 . Collect my confirmations for the potential trade. Here are some questions I ask myself:
- What color is the current candle?
- Are the candles above or below my EMAs?
- Have the EMAs crossed?
- Is my Momentum indicator facing up or down? Is it positive or negative?
- Is my Stochastic facing up or down? Is the Indicator's financial value above 50?
These are the answers you should get:
- Bullish/Buying: Green, Above, Up, Over, Higher, and Positive
- Bearish/Selling: Red, Below, Down, Under, Lower and Negative
3. Enter the market at Market Execution or set a Pending Order.
4. Choose my TP and SL using the Long position tool for buying and the Short position tool for selling.
Buys: Place TP above previous high and SL below the previous low
Sells: Place TP below previous low and SL above the previous high
- Peace and Profits, Cha