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Trend Analysis

Commitment of Traders Modelled as Stratified Poissant Processes Hey! This video theorizes about the relevance of the poissant process in predicting areas of support and resistance in a way that accounts for temporal and probabilistic grounding. Essentially, the commitment of traders is modelled as a poissant process. Lambda is remeasured at each time step and the stratas' opacity reflects the strength of the probability, modelling trader capitulation as a time decay function. The recency and recurrence of information is intuitive and visible at a glance. Enjoy!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by garysebastianbrowniii
3
Behind the Curtain: Top Economic Influencers on ZN Futures1. Introduction The 10-Year Treasury Note Futures (ZN), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of the fixed-income market. As a vital benchmark for interest rate trends and macroeconomic sentiment, ZN Futures attract institutional and retail traders alike. Their liquidity, versatility, and sensitivity to economic shifts make them a go-to instrument for both speculation and hedging. In this article, we delve into the economic forces shaping ZN Futures’ performance across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we identify the most impactful indicators influencing Treasury futures returns. These insights can help traders fine-tune their strategies and navigate the complexities of this market. 2. Product Specifications Contract Size: The standard ZN Futures contract represents $100,000 face value of 10-Year Treasury Notes. Tick Size: Each tick corresponds to 1/64 of 1% of par value. This equals $15.625 per tick, ensuring precise pricing and manageable risk for traders. Margins: Approximately $2,000 per contract (changes through time). Micro Contract Availability: While the standard contract suits institutional traders, the micro-sized Yield Futures provide a smaller-scale option for retail participants. These contracts offer reduced tick values and margin requirements, enabling broader market participation. 3. Daily Economic Drivers Machine learning models reveal that daily fluctuations in ZN Futures are significantly influenced by the following indicators: Building Permits: A leading indicator of housing market activity, an increase in permits signals economic confidence and growth. This optimism often puts upward pressure on yields, while a decline may reflect economic caution, boosting demand for Treasuries. U.S. Trade Balance: This metric measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit typically signals improved economic health, leading to higher yields. Conversely, a widening deficit can weaken economic sentiment, increasing Treasury demand as a safe-haven asset. China GDP Growth Rate: As a global economic powerhouse, China’s GDP growth influences global trade and financial flows. Strong growth suggests robust international demand, pressuring Treasury prices downward as yields rise. Slower growth has the opposite effect, enhancing Treasury appeal. 4. Weekly Economic Drivers When analyzing weekly timeframes, the following indicators emerge as significant drivers of ZN Futures: Velocity of Money (M2): This indicator reflects the speed at which money circulates in the economy. High velocity signals robust economic activity, often putting upward pressure on yields. Slowing velocity, on the other hand, may indicate stagnation, increasing demand for Treasury securities. Consumer Sentiment Index: This metric gauges the confidence level of consumers regarding the economy. Rising sentiment suggests stronger consumer spending and economic growth, often pressuring bond prices downward as yields rise. Conversely, a decline signals economic caution, favoring safe-haven assets like ZN Futures. Nonfarm Productivity: This measures output per hour worked in the nonfarm sector and serves as an indicator of economic efficiency. Rising productivity typically reflects economic strength and may lead to higher yields, while stagnation or declines can shift sentiment toward Treasuries. 5. Monthly Economic Drivers On a broader monthly scale, the following indicators play a pivotal role in shaping ZN Futures: Net Exports: This metric captures the difference between a country’s exports and imports. A surplus indicates strong global demand for domestic goods, signaling economic strength and driving yields higher. Persistent deficits, however, may weaken economic sentiment and increase demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. 10-Year Treasury Yield: As a benchmark for longer-term borrowing costs, movements in the 10-Year Treasury Yield reflect investor expectations for economic growth and inflation. Rising yields suggest optimism about future economic conditions, potentially reducing demand for Treasury futures. Declining yields indicate caution, bolstering Treasury appeal. Durable Goods Orders: This indicator measures new orders placed with manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more. Rising orders signal business confidence and economic growth, often leading to higher yields. Conversely, a decline in durable goods orders can indicate slowing economic momentum, increasing Treasury demand. 6. Applications for Different Trading Styles Economic indicators provide distinct insights depending on the trading style and timeframe: Day Traders: Focusing on daily indicators like Building Permits, U.S. Trade Balance, and China GDP Growth Rate to anticipate short-term market movements. For example, an improvement in China’s GDP Growth Rate may signal stronger global economic conditions, potentially driving yields higher and pressuring ZN Futures lower. Swing Traders: Weekly indicators such as Velocity of Money (M2), Consumer Sentiment Index, and Nonfarm Productivity could help identify intermediate trends. For instance, rising consumer sentiment can reflect increased spending expectations, potentially prompting bearish positions in ZN Futures. Position Traders: Monthly metrics like Net Exports, 10-Year Treasury Yield, and Durable Goods Orders may offer a macro perspective for long-term strategies. A sustained increase in durable goods orders, for instance, may indicate economic expansion, influencing traders to potentially adopt bearish sentiment on ZN Futures. 7. Conclusion The analysis highlights how daily, weekly, and monthly economic indicators collectively influence ZN Futures. From more immediate fluctuations driven by Building Permits and China GDP Growth Rate, to longer-term trends shaped by Durable Goods Orders and the 10-Year Treasury Yield, each timeframe provides actionable insights for traders. By understanding these indicators and incorporating machine learning models to uncover patterns, traders can refine strategies tailored to specific time horizons. Whether intraday, swing, or long-term, leveraging these insights empowers traders to navigate ZN Futures with greater precision. Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we examine economic drivers behind another key futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by traddictiv
8
Example of how to use the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- There was a question about how to select the selection point when using the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool, so I will take the time to explain the method I use. Since it is my method, it may be different from your method. - Before that, I will explain the difference from the general Fibonacci retracement tool. The Fibonacci retracement tool uses the Fibonacci ratio as the ratio to be retracement within the selected range. Therefore, the low and high points are likely to be the selection points. The reason I say it is likely is because the lowest and highest points are different depending on which time frame chart it was drawn on. Therefore, in order to use a chart tool that specifies a selection point like this, you must basically understand the arrangement of candles. If you understand the arrangement of candles, you can draw the support and resistance points that make up it and determine the importance of those support and resistance points. The HA-MS indicator that I am using is a more objective version of this. Unlike the published HA-MS indicator, several have been added. I do not plan to disclose the formulas of these added indicators yet. However, if you share my ideas, you can use them normally at any time. The selection point for using the current Fibonacci retracement tool is the point that the fingers are pointing to. In other words, the 1st finger is the low point, and the 2nd finger is the high point. One question may arise here. Why is it the position of the 1st finger? The reason is that it is the starting point of the current wave. Therefore, you can find out the retracement ratio in the current rising wave. In fact, it is not recommended to use the Fibonacci ratio as support and resistance. This is because it is better to use the Fibonacci ratio to check how much wave is being reached and how much movement is being shown in chart analysis. However, the Fibonacci ratio can be usefully used when the ATH or ATL is updated. - If the Fibonacci Retracement tool was a chart tool that found out the retracement ratio in the current wave, the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool can be said to be a chart tool that found out the extension ratio of the wave. Therefore, while the Fibonacci Retracement tool requires you to specify two selection points, the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool requires you to specify three selection points. That's how important it is to understand the arrangement of the candles. The chart above is an example of drawing to find out the extension ratio of an uptrend The chart above is an example of drawing to find out the extension ratio of a downtrend Do you understand how the selection points are specified by looking at the example chart? - The chart above is the chart when the 1st finger point is selected. The chart above is the chart when the 1-1 hand point is selected. When drawing on a lower time frame chart, you should be careful about which point to select when the arrangement of the candles is ambiguous. Examples include the 1st finger and the 1-1 finger. It may be difficult to select 1-1 and 1 depending on whether they are interpreted as small waves or not. The lower the time frame chart, the more difficult this selection becomes. Therefore, it is recommended to draw on a higher time frame chart if possible. The reason is that the Fibonacci ratio is a chart tool used to analyze charts. In other words, it is not drawn for trading. In order to trade, you trade based on whether there is support or resistance at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. - Thank you for reading to the end. I wish you successful trading. --------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by readCrypto
8
Decoding Market Maker Tactics: An Educational BreakdownDecoding Market Maker Tactics: An Educational Guide for Trading Gold If you’re trading Gold (XAU/USD), understanding market-maker tactics is essential. This guide will teach you how to decode liquidity traps, fake breakouts, and stop-loss sweeps using the 8H XAU/USD chart as a real-world example. With recent economic events like U.S. Retail Sales, CPI inflation data, and central bank comments, Gold’s price movement was a textbook case of market-maker manipulation. By studying this chart, you’ll learn how to recognize their tactics and position yourself to trade smarter. Let’s break it down step-by-step, with direct cues from the chart. 1. Key Levels and Zones: The Battleground Referencing the 8H XAU/USD Chart, we observe key levels that highlight market maker strategies: Resistance Zones: Retail Traps $2,724 – Major Psychological Resistance 🔴 Chart Cue: A highlighted resistance area where sellers aggressively defend. Market makers engineered a fake breakout to trap buyers, as seen with the liquidity sweep warning on the chart. Lesson: Always be cautious of breakouts at such heavily defended psychological levels unless backed by strong volume. $2,710 – $2,706 (Point of Control - POC) 🟠 Chart Cue: This area represents the highest volume traded, marked as a pivot zone. Notice how price consolidates here, creating doji candles and indecision before sharp movements. Support Zones: Stop-Loss Hunting Grounds $2,689 – Strong Support 🟢 Chart Cue: Buyers defended this level repeatedly (visible with long lower wicks), but market makers pushed below to trigger stop-losses before reversing upward. Key Insight: This manipulation was a classic liquidity grab. $2,682 – Secondary Support (Liquidity Grab Zone) 🔴 Chart Cue: The chart identifies this as a prime stop-loss hunting zone, where price dipped sharply before rebounding. The liquidity grab here highlights market maker positioning before a reversal. 2. How Economic News Fueled Manipulation Recent news amplified volatility and provided market makers with opportunities to manipulate price. Tuesday: U.S. Retail Sales Data Impact: Strong retail sales drove the USD higher, pushing Gold below $2,689. Retail traders went short, expecting further declines. Chart Evidence: The volume imbalance below $2,689 highlights the liquidity grab before the sharp reversal. Thursday: CPI Inflation Report Impact: Slightly lower-than-expected CPI figures spiked Gold prices to $2,724, enticing breakout buyers. Chart Evidence: The liquidity sweep warning at $2,724 confirms a false breakout, where market makers absorbed buy orders before reversing. Friday: Central Bank Comments Impact: Dovish remarks boosted Gold momentarily, but price consolidated around $2,710 (POC). Chart Evidence: Candles near the POC indicate indecision before another stop-loss sweep below $2,689, followed by a recovery. 3. Candlestick and Price Action Patterns The chart reveals essential price action signals that help anticipate market-maker moves: Inside Bar Formation: Multiple candles near $2,724 signal price compression. These patterns often precede false breakouts, as seen after CPI news. Wick Rejections: At $2,724: Long upper wicks confirm selling pressure. At $2,689: Long lower wicks indicate stop-loss hunting. Candles at POC ($2,706): Reflect market indecision, hinting at a pending sharp move. 4. Volume and Liquidity Analysis Volume dynamics reveal critical insights into market manipulation: Shrinking Volume at Resistance ($2,724): Weak buying pressure at resistance confirms exhaustion, setting up a fake breakout trap (marked on the chart). Volume Void Below $2,689: The chart’s volume analysis indicates a high-probability liquidity grab zone, where market makers fill positions before reversing. 5. Trend and Wave Analysis Using wave theory and higher-timeframe trends: Corrective Wave (Wave 4): The current corrective wave shows typical liquidity grabs and false moves, aligning with the chart’s liquidity sweep zones. Broader Trend: Despite the manipulation, Gold remains in a long-term uptrend. The current correction will likely give way to a bullish Wave 5. 6. Market Correlations The chart’s spillover impact indicators reveal Gold’s self-driven movement last week: DXY (0.12): Weak positive correlation. S&P 500 (-0.04): Minimal inverse correlation, as expected for a safe-haven asset. Key Takeaway: Liquidity dynamics remain the primary driver for Gold, not external markets. 7. Hypothetical Trade Setups Educational trade setups inspired by the chart: Trade Setup 1: Buy After Liquidity Grab Order Type: Buy Limit Entry: $2,682 Take Profit: $2,724 Stop Loss: $2,675 Chart Cue: Liquidity grab zone identified at $2,682, aligning with harmonic reversal. Trade Setup 2: Sell the Fake Breakout Order Type: Sell Limit Entry: $2,724 Take Profit: $2,689 Stop Loss: $2,730 Chart Cue: Liquidity sweep warning at $2,724 indicates a probable fake breakout. 8. Why Use the 8H Chart for Gold? The uploaded 8H XAU/USD chart offers the perfect balance: Clarity: It reduces noise from smaller timeframes while revealing mid-term liquidity zones. Precision: Patterns like wick rejections, volume voids, and fake breakouts are clearly visible. 9. Conclusion: Outsmart the Manipulators This 8H XAU/USD chart showcases a masterclass in market-maker tactics: Traps Set: A fake breakout above $2,724 caught breakout buyers. Stop-Loss Sweep: A liquidity grab below $2,682 punished unprepared buyers. Final Tip: Trade smart. Focus on liquidity zones and price action setups to position yourself like a professional, avoiding retail traps.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Fast Profits: Bullish Scalping Patterns Every Trader Should Know1. Bullish Exhaustion Bar Definition: A bullish exhaustion bar occurs at the end of a bearish trend, signaling that sellers are losing momentum and buyers are stepping in. It reflects the market's indecision before a potential reversal. Key Characteristics: Long lower wick (indicates rejection of lower prices). Small body near the top of the candlestick. Often forms at support levels or near demand zones. Volume may spike, signaling increased buyer interest. Trading Tips: Look for confirmation on the next bar (e.g., a bullish close above the exhaustion bar). Combine with other tools like trendlines or indicators (e.g., RSI divergence). Place a stop-loss below the low of the exhaustion bar. --------------------------------- 2. Bullish Reversal Bar Definition: A bullish reversal bar forms during a downtrend and indicates a potential reversal to the upside. This candlestick suggests that buyers are gaining control. Key Characteristics: Closes higher than it opens, forming a green candle. Appears after a series of bearish candles. Often accompanied by high trading volume. Trading Tips: Best used at key support levels or demand zones. Wait for a bullish confirmation (e.g., a break above the high of the reversal bar). Place stop-loss below the low of the reversal bar. --------------------------------- 3. Key Reversal Bar Definition: A key reversal bar signals a strong change in market sentiment, often marking the end of a trend or the beginning of a new one. Key Characteristics: Opens below the previous bar's low but closes above the previous bar's high. Indicates a sharp shift from bearish to bullish momentum. Often forms at major support levels or after significant downtrends. Trading Tips: Look for confluence with other indicators or support levels. Use the high of the key reversal bar as an entry point. Place stop-loss below the low of the reversal bar. -------------------------------- 4. Bullish Pin Bar Definition: A bullish pin bar (or hammer) is a single candlestick pattern with a long lower wick and a small body near the top. It shows strong rejection of lower prices and a shift toward bullish momentum. Key Characteristics: Long lower shadow, at least two-thirds of the candlestick's length. Small real body near the upper end of the range. Little to no upper wick. Trading Tips: Effective when it forms at support levels or Fibonacci retracement zones. Enter on the break of the pin bar's high. Place a stop-loss below the pin bar’s low. ------------------------------- 5. Bullish 3-Bar Reversal Definition: A bullish 3-bar reversal pattern consists of three consecutive candlesticks, signaling a reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. Key Characteristics: The first bar is bearish, continuing the downtrend. The second bar has a smaller body, often an indecision candle. The third bar is a strong bullish candle that closes above the first bar's high. Trading Tips: A reliable pattern for trend reversals at support levels. Enter after the third bar closes above the first bar’s high. Stop-loss can be placed below the low of the pattern. ------------------------------- 5. Bullish 3-Bar Reversal Definition: A bullish 3-bar reversal pattern consists of three consecutive candlesticks, signaling a reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. Key Characteristics: The first bar is bearish, continuing the downtrend. The second bar has a smaller body, often an indecision candle. The third bar is a strong bullish candle that closes above the first bar's high. Trading Tips: A reliable pattern for trend reversals at support levels. Enter after the third bar closes above the first bar’s high. Stop-loss can be placed below the low of the pattern. ----------------------------- Final Notes: To use these patterns effectively: Combine them with key support/resistance levels, trendlines, or Fibonacci retracements. Use volume analysis to confirm the strength of the pattern. Always seek confirmation from subsequent candles before entering trades.
Education
by GentleGoldenEngine
14
Technical Analysis of Bajaj Finserv (BAJAJFINSV): A Bullish BreOverview and Key Observations Bajaj Finserv has recently shown signs of a bullish reversal after breaking out of a classic double bottom pattern, a strong indicator of upward momentum. The neckline at ₹1,680 was breached with significant volume, confirming the breakout. The current price of ₹1,735.20 positions the stock above this critical support, establishing a solid base for further upside. The pattern suggests a measured target of ₹1,800, aligning with intermediate resistance levels. Support and Resistance Levels The chart highlights the following critical levels for traders: Support Levels: ₹1,693.73: Immediate support just below the current price, ideal for pullbacks. ₹1,652.27: Intermediate support aligning with prior consolidations. ₹1,630.13: A deeper demand zone marking the bottom of the previous accumulation phase. Resistance Levels: ₹1,757.33: The immediate resistance that needs to be breached for continued upside. ₹1,779.47: A key resistance level and the target based on the double bottom pattern height. ₹1,820.93: A stronger resistance and the next major target for the stock. The stock currently faces resistance near ₹1,757.33, and a breakout above this level with strong volume could open the doors for a rally toward ₹1,779.47 and ₹1,820.93. Volume and Momentum The breakout candle exhibited a notable surge in volume, validating the reliability of the bullish move. However, subsequent candles show declining volume, suggesting mild consolidation near resistance. Momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD need to be monitored for confirmation of continued strength. If RSI remains below 70, there is room for further upward movement. Trading Strategies For swing traders, entering long positions near ₹1,700–₹1,720 on pullbacks or above ₹1,757 after a breakout offers good opportunities. A stoploss at ₹1,669, below Support 1, ensures risk is minimized. Targets include ₹1,757.33, ₹1,779.47, and ₹1,820.93. For shortterm traders, a failure to sustain above ₹1,680 could indicate weakness, with downside targets of ₹1,652.27 and ₹1,630.13. Summary and Outlook Bajaj Finserv is exhibiting strong bullish momentum backed by technical patterns and volume. The immediate focus is on clearing the resistance at ₹1,757.33 to confirm further upside toward ₹1,779.47 and ₹1,820.93. Traders should remain cautious of a potential retest of the ₹1,680 support zone, which would act as a critical level for invalidating the bullish setup. With strong risk management and a focus on key levels, this setup offers a promising opportunity for both shortterm and longterm gains.
NSE:BAJAJFINSVEducation
by ruelfernandes
Finding Balance: Managing GREED in TradingIs greed helping or hurting your trading? While closing trades too quickly for small profits isn't ideal, neither is holding positions too long hoping for bigger gains. Let's explore how to find the right balance between healthy ambition and destructive greed. 📍 Understanding Healthy vs. Unhealthy Greed Some greed can be good - it drives us to achieve goals and maintain optimism. But when it becomes an obsession, problems start. Professional traders manage their emotions well, while beginners often struggle as early successes fuel excitement and a dangerous focus on profits at any cost. 📍 Warning Signs of Unhealthy Trading Behavior When trading turns unhealthy, you might notice these patterns: 🔹 Ignoring proven rules because you trust your "gut feelings" more than sound strategy. Your confidence leads you to dismiss common sense in pursuit of profits. 🔹 Expecting every trade to be profitable . While optimism helps, believing you'll win just because you want money is dangerous thinking. 🔹 Living with constant stress. You can't step away from price charts, scrutinizing every move and experiencing emotional highs and lows with each trade. 🔹 Chasing profits while skipping analysis. You focus only on results without learning from each trade, leading to more frequent losses over time. 📍 Dangerous Trading Habits to Avoid ⚫️ Using maximum leverage, thinking bigger trades mean bigger profits. This often leads to heavy losses when markets move sharply against you. ⚫️ Moving stop-losses and take-profit levels mid-trade. Whether hoping to avoid losses or catch more gains, this usually results in worse outcomes and added stress. ⚫️ Following the Martingale strategy - doubling position sizes after losses or wins. This approach typically leads to losing your account quickly. 📍 Practical Steps to Control Greed 1. Start with real money, but small amounts. Demo accounts can create false confidence since there's no real risk. 2. Set clear, achievable goals. For day trading (H1-H4 timeframes), aim for about 20 pips per trade. Scalpers should be satisfied with just a few pips. 3. Create and follow a detailed trading plan. Example: Take half profits at your target, use trailing stops to protect remaining gains. 4. Practice smart risk management. Decide your maximum risk per trade and stick to it - don't adjust stops once set. 5. Keep learning and practicing. With better market understanding, you'll make fewer emotional decisions. A realistic monthly return might be 2% - treat anything above as a bonus. 6. Connect with other traders. Share experiences to manage stress and gain perspective on what's normal in professional trading. 7. Stay skeptical and analytical. When excitement runs high, slow down. Check multiple information sources and grow your trading size gradually while continuing to develop your skills. 📍 Conclusion Successful trading is about steady progress, not quick riches. Growth should happen naturally alongside your developing trading skills, without sacrificing other aspects of your life. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
2
Bitcoin major sign of Stop loss hunting and dump seen!!!This is educational post and i am making it short this time with one example which happened at 13/Jan/2025 as you can see previous time we had same scenario but they did hit stop loss of sellers + buyers and how is that ? price was breaking 90K$ support zone which is strong and major support for BTC in lower time frames as you can see at that time and it breaks that immediately after hitting so many stop loss of buyers below 90K$ and get them out of their buy positions it pumped and start to rise also it hit so many stop loss of sellers with high leverage which sell the Bitcoin below that support zone and they were looking for the upcoming dump after breakout but it didn't happen and both sides get loss and someone's loss is some others profit and this high volume there is reason of that and after price pump above we can see more gain also appear due to that good stop loss hunting and it seems that we have the same scenario now happening but this time it seems that Resistance and ATH resistance zone is breaking so take care. How to find out if the breakout is valid or is it fake breakout ? 1. let it breaks the resistance or support with at least +-3% as confirmation. 2. after breakout wait for retest of breakout and let it retest previous support for example and see if it turns to resistance zone this time. 3. high volume is needed after 2-3 next candles after breakout + breakout candle. I think we may have another fake breakout and soon price will fall and dump hard and this is my thoughts. So always do your own research and DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <>
Education
by MMBTtrader
24
Bitcoin: Don't be blind to the world (Trump inauguration)Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price. But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us. On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President. I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas! The crypto market - and Bitcoin especially - has been on a huge rally since Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in favour of cryptocurrencies last year. There’s a chance President Trump could mention Bitcoin in his inaugural speech but even if he doesn’t, the prospect of favourable regulation is broadly positive for Bitcoin - or if we’re more honest - the idea of better regulation could be enough justification to keep the crypto bull run going for now. Bitcoin On the weekly chart, we can see Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been trading sideways around the $100,000 level - with roughly $90,000 as support. But bigger picture it’s a huge uptrend and we want to trade in line with the trend (as always) Importantly - it just closed the week back over the critical $100K mark - and it did so with a bullish engulfing candlestick that engulfed the previous 3 weeks. As a reminder - where the week closed is more important than the high or low of the week - and a weekly close is more significant than a daily close. You can think of the closing price as the price that everybody agreed was the right price for that period. The final missing piece to the bullish breakout is a weekly close at a new record high. On the daily chart we are watching the broken trendline as well as the $100k level as support that needs to hold if the breakout is going to happen soon. But while the price trendline is not especially reliable with only two ‘touches’ or swing points the broken RSI trendline is much more significant and shows a big pickup in momentum that will be needed if the price is to break out. If the breakout does happen, the first barrier that needs to break is $110,000 but after that $120k then even $130k could come quite quickly given Trump’s inauguration this week. But - as always - that’s just how my team and I are seeing things, what do you think? Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request! Send us an email or message us on social media. cheers! Jasper
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by jasperlawler
11
Identifying Fakeouts and Enhancing Risk Management in TradingEducational Purpose: This tutorial aims to educate traders on identifying fakeouts, understanding their characteristics, and improving risk management strategies to avoid common pitfalls. Key Educational Points: 1. What is a Fakeout? A fakeout occurs when the price temporarily breaks a key support or resistance level but fails to sustain the move, reversing quickly. It often traps traders who enter prematurely. 2. Spotting Fakeouts: Volume Analysis: Fakeouts typically show weak volume during the breakout. Always confirm breakouts with a noticeable increase in volume. Market Context: In range-bound or choppy markets, breakouts are less reliable. Look for additional confirmation before entering trades. Follow-Through: Wait for at least one or two candles to close above resistance or below support after a breakout. 3. Risk Management During Fakeouts: Set Tight Stop-Losses: Place stop-loss orders close to the breakout level to minimize losses if the move fails. Use Confluence: Combine multiple factors (e.g., trendlines, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements) for stronger confirmation. Plan Your Targets: Avoid overly aggressive targets unless the breakout is supported by strong market structure and volume. 4. Trading Psychology: Patience is Key: Do not rush into trades at the first sign of a breakout. Wait for confirmations to reduce emotional decision-making. Learn from Losses: Treat fakeouts as learning opportunities. Analyze what went wrong and refine your approach. Practical Application: In the attached chart of 1000BONK/USDT, a failed breakout (fakeout) highlights these principles: Weak volume during the breakout. Lack of follow-through above resistance. A reversal that would have been avoided by waiting for confirmation. This tutorial emphasizes that proper confirmation, risk management, and trading psychology are essential for avoiding fakeouts and improving overall performance. Let me know your thoughts or share how you approach such situations!
Education
by MyTradingJournal6th
I need objective information to help me interpret the chart Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- With this decline, the BW(100) indicator was created at 104556.23. Accordingly, the high boundary section is the 101947.24-104556.23 section. Unfortunately, since it fell below 101947.24, the key is whether it can receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator, i.e., around 98892.0, and rise. If it falls below the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator and shows resistance, it is highly likely to turn into a short-term downtrend. - The settings for the StochRSI indicator I use are 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D). The source value is ohlc4. If you set it as above, it will show a movement similar to the StochRSI indicator on my chart. When the StochRSI indicator - falls in the overbought zone, - is located near the 50 point, - rises in the oversold zone, volatility is likely to occur. However, you should check whether there is support near the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts and think of a corresponding response plan. Therefore, by checking the relationship between the movement of the StochRSI indicator and the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, you can choose the point where you can make a trade. If you can calculate these selection points, I think it is highly likely that you will be able to create a trading strategy that suits your investment style. It is good to predict future movements with trends or waves, but if you can calculate the point where you can actually make a trade, I think you can create a better trading strategy. - I wrote a long article, but 1. Will the StochRSI indicator fall in the overbought zone? 2. Will it receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator? 3. Will it rise to the high boundary section? You should focus on the three things above. --------------------------------- The method of drawing support and resistance points is drawn according to the arrangement of candles. This method can actually include subjective thoughts, so it requires skill. Therefore, if possible, I recommend that you sign up as a paid member of TradingView and share my charts with me, and use the HA-High, HA-Low, BW(100), BW(0), OBV, +100, -100 indicators that appear on 1M, 1W, and 1D charts by the HA-MS_BW+v2 indicator as horizontal lines and use them as support and resistance points. Then, even if others look at the charts, they will be easier to understand, and it will be easier to share opinions on trading strategies according to each other's investment styles. By utilizing indicators that anyone can use in this way, you will be able to view the charts objectively. If you trade based on what others tell you, you will likely not be able to respond quickly when sudden volatility occurs. Therefore, when creating a trading strategy, you should roughly think about how to respond to all cases, both when it goes up and when it goes down. That's why it's best to draw support and resistance points or other reference materials on your chart if possible and prepare countermeasures accordingly. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
LEGEND SPEAKS #2 (Paul Tudor Jones)Paul Tudor Jones is a legendary hedge fund manager known for his ability to predict market movements and his disciplined, strategic approach to trading. His success in both traditional markets and commodities, combined with his risk management techniques, has made him one of the most respected names in the world of finance. His insights and trading philosophy offer invaluable lessons for anyone looking to improve their trading strategies. Here are some key lessons that traders and investors can learn from Paul Tudor Jones’ remarkable career. 1. The Importance of Risk Management One of the core principles that Paul Tudor Jones emphasizes is risk management. He is famous for saying, "The most important thing is to play defense, not offense." Rather than focusing on maximizing gains, Jones prioritizes minimizing losses. His approach involves cutting losses quickly and letting profits run, which is critical for long-term success in trading. Key Takeaway: Cut losses quickly and allow profitable trades to run their course. Effective risk management is essential for preserving capital and staying in the game. 2. Focus on the Big Picture and Macro Trends Paul Tudor Jones is known for his macroeconomic perspective. He focuses on big-picture trends, such as interest rates, inflation, and global economic shifts, to guide his trading decisions. Jones is particularly famous for predicting the 1987 stock market crash, where he profited by betting against the market based on his macroeconomic analysis. Key Takeaway: Understand macroeconomic trends and how they influence the markets. A deep understanding of the broader economic landscape can help inform your trading decisions and give you a competitive edge. 3. Adaptability and Flexibility One of the defining features of Paul Tudor Jones' career is his ability to adapt to changing market conditions. While many traders stick to rigid strategies, Jones remains flexible and willing to adjust his approach based on new data or changing trends. This adaptability is key to navigating volatile and unpredictable markets. Key Takeaway: Be flexible in your approach. Stay open to new information and be willing to change your strategy if the market conditions shift. 4. Trust Your Instincts, but Rely on Data Jones believes in the power of intuition, but he stresses the importance of using data to back up your instincts. While his ability to predict market movements may seem like intuition, it’s actually a combination of deep market knowledge, research, and pattern recognition. Jones once said, "The secret to successful trading is to know yourself." His success stems from his ability to merge data analysis with his own experience and gut feeling. Key Takeaway: Combine data analysis with intuition. Trust your instincts, but ensure they’re grounded in sound research and market data. 5. Cutting Losses is Key to Long-Term Success Jones' philosophy on cutting losses is one of the cornerstones of his trading strategy. He advocates that losing a small amount of money is far better than holding onto a losing position in hopes of a rebound. He uses strict stop-loss rules to ensure he doesn’t let any position turn into a large loss. Key Takeaway: Implement strict stop-loss rules. Don’t allow losses to compound. By cutting losses early, you ensure that they don’t derail your overall strategy. 6. Be Patient and Wait for Opportunities Paul Tudor Jones emphasizes patience in trading. He is known for waiting until the right opportunity presents itself rather than rushing into trades. He waits for high-probability setups and takes positions when the risk-to-reward ratio is in his favor. Key Takeaway: Be patient and wait for high-probability setups. Don’t rush into trades; wait for favorable conditions and a solid risk-to-reward ratio. 7. Use Leverage Wisely Paul Tudor Jones has been known to use leverage in his trading, but he does so cautiously. He understands the power of leverage to amplify gains but also the danger of excessive leverage leading to significant losses. His careful use of leverage allows him to take advantage of market opportunities without overexposing his portfolio. Key Takeaway: Use leverage cautiously. Leverage can amplify returns but also magnify losses. Always assess the risks before using leverage in your trades. 8. The Role of Psychological Resilience in Trading Psychological resilience is a key element of Paul Tudor Jones' trading philosophy. He understands that trading can be emotionally taxing, especially during periods of loss or volatility. To succeed, traders must remain calm, avoid emotional decision-making, and be able to bounce back from setbacks. Key Takeaway: Maintain psychological resilience. Stay calm, avoid making impulsive decisions based on emotions, and learn from your mistakes rather than letting them define you. 9. Always Have a Plan, and Stick to It Paul Tudor Jones is a firm believer in having a plan and sticking to it. Before entering any trade, he makes sure he has a well-thought-out strategy in place, including entry and exit points, risk management rules, and an understanding of the overall market environment. He emphasizes that trading without a plan is a recipe for failure. Key Takeaway: Develop a trading plan and stick to it. Having a structured approach to each trade, including risk management and clear objectives, is essential for long-term success. 10. Success is a Long-Term Game Paul Tudor Jones emphasizes that trading and investing are not about making quick profits but about building wealth over the long term. His strategy is based on understanding the markets deeply, being patient, and focusing on consistent performance rather than short-term gains. Key Takeaway: Focus on long-term success. Avoid chasing short-term profits and concentrate on building sustainable wealth over time. Conclusion: Applying Paul Tudor Jones’ Lessons to Your Trading Strategy Paul Tudor Jones' success as a trader and investor stems from his commitment to disciplined risk management, macroeconomic analysis, adaptability, and emotional resilience. By focusing on big-picture trends, using data and intuition, cutting losses quickly, and patiently waiting for opportunities, traders can improve their decision-making processes and achieve long-term success. Moreover, applying Jones' principles of psychological resilience, having a clear trading plan, and using leverage wisely can help traders build a stable foundation for consistent growth. By adopting these insights, traders can navigate volatile markets with greater confidence and build a solid, long-term trading strategy.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by keshevdugar
Best way to get into the market in 20251. Identify your htf. 2. Identify a htf bias. 3. Identify your current trading range on your htf. 4. Identify your premium or discount level. 5. Inside your premium or discount level identify your htf point of interest. 6. Wait for price to pull into your htf point of interest. 7. Pop down to a ltf where you'll observe bearish or bullish price action. 8. Wait for the buy model or sell model to play our wait fora market structure shift on the ltf. 9. Your new range will be on the ltf where there was a market structure shift which will give you a new range. 10. Mark out the range using your fibs and plot your discount or premium area. 11. Inside your ltf premium of discount level identify your ltf point of interest. 12.Enter at the poi( point of interest) inside these levels or set an entry at the retest.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by darrenblignaut78
The TrumpCoin Craze: What’s Really Going On?Yesterday, something truly bizarre happened in the world of crypto. Donald Trump—yes, that Donald Trump—launched his very own cryptocurrency, TrumpCoin ($TRUMP). At first, like everyone else, I thought his account had been hacked. I mean, launching a meme coin just days before his presidential inauguration? Come on... But nope, it’s 100% real. Verified. Like many others, I got curious and, let’s face it, greedy. So, I bought in. The result? I cashed out at a nice 3x profit, enough for a fun night out. But before we dive into the crazy market activity, let me clarify a couple of things: - I’m not a Trump fan. This isn’t about politics. - I don’t think this is a rug pull, at least not intentionally . It seems more like someone who doesn’t fully understand how crypto works decided to jump in. A Brief Timeline of Chaos TrumpCoin was announced on his social platforms, including Truth Social and X (formerly Twitter). Initially, everyone thought it was fake news. I mean, a meme coin with his name on it? Right before inauguration day? It screams “scam.” But soon after, major crypto news outlets confirmed its legitimacy. And then the madness began. Within hours: - Market cap: Over $14 billion at the time of writing(and climbing). - Trading volume: A jaw-dropping $11 billion in just one day. - Price swings: The coin hit a high of $3.30 before dipping below $1.50 and now is above $4. Trump’s company, CIC Digital LLC, reportedly holds 80% of the coin supply, making this a financial windfall for him—even if the project crashes. The Crypto Community Splits This move has divided the crypto space. On one hand, you have people who are treating $TRUMP like any other speculative asset. ( Hi, that’s me! ) On the other, there are folks who see it as a statement of loyalty to Trump. Then there’s a third group—the skeptics—who warn that this could end in disaster. The real problem? Newbies are piling in without understanding what they’re doing. The hype is pulling in people who don’t know a rug pull from a blockchain. They’re buying and buying, hoping to ride the wave, and are likely to get burned when the bubble bursts. Is This a Rug Pull? Let’s address the elephant in the room. With 80% of the supply in Trump’s control, the setup raises eyebrows. But is this an intentional scam? Probably not. If anything, this feels more like a PR stunt gone wild—a way to cash in on his fame and make a splash before returning to the White House. That said, the outcome could still be the same. At some point, the hype will die, the price will tank, and many will lose money. The bigger it gets, the harder it’ll fall. My Take: Enjoy the Ride, but Be Careful TrumpCoin is the epitome of crypto’s wild side: volatile, unpredictable, and more about hype than substance. If you’re diving in, know what you’re getting into. For me, it was a quick trade—buy low, sell high, and get out. But I worry about the inexperienced investors who are holding on, hoping for it to hit $10, $20, or even higher. So, here’s my advice: Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose. Take profits while you can. Remember, just because something is popular doesn’t mean it’s sustainable. Whether $TRUMP reaches a $25 billion, $50 billion market cap or crashes spectacularly, one thing’s for sure—it’s going to be one heck of a ride. Stay safe out there, and happy trading!
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
29
HOW TO TRADE with the ICHIMOKUThe Ichimoku is one of the best-trending indicators out there. The best strategy you could use is the CLOUD BREAK. When the price is breaking out of the cloud, you enter into a trade in this direction. This is the best strategy because the Ichimoku Indicator shows you multiple timeframes simultaneously, but the cloud is the highest timeframe, which means it is the strongest, and you will have fewer whipsaws and false entries with it. This indicator is also a great tool, to hold onto your winning trades and let your profits run. Once you get professional with it, you will know how to recognize both trending environments and ranging environments. This means that you will know how to apply different strategies that are fit to that specific environment.
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by ZoharCho
Should You Follow Michael Saylor’s BTC Moves? Let’s Think TwiceIn the crypto world, Michael Saylor is a household name. The co-founder of MicroStrategy has become one of Bitcoin’s most vocal advocates, with his company accumulating a massive Bitcoin treasury. Many view his purchases as a signal of confidence, believing that if someone with his track record is buying, it must be the right move. But is it wise to follow his lead without question? Let’s take a closer look at the full story and consider why doing your homework is essential before jumping in headfirst. The Rise of Michael Saylor: Bitcoin’s Biggest Cheerleader Saylor didn’t become a prominent figure in the crypto space until 2020, when MicroStrategy announced its first Bitcoin purchase. Since then, he has positioned himself as a thought leader in the industry, frequently championing Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value. However, Saylor’s newfound reputation as a financial visionary often overshadows his earlier history—a history that’s worth examining. A Look Back: The Dot-Com Bubble and MicroStrategy’s Decline In the late 1990s, MicroStrategy rode the wave of the dot-com boom, with its stock soaring to impressive heights. But like many other tech companies of the era, it faced a harsh reality check when the bubble burst. MicroStrategy’s stock plummeted, and for the better part of two decades, it languished near its lows. During this period, Michael Saylor’s reputation as a business genius took a backseat. It wasn’t until Bitcoin’s meteoric rise—and MicroStrategy’s pivot to buying and holding Bitcoin—that Saylor regained the spotlight. Is It Genius or Just Timing? Here’s the question we need to ask: Is Michael Saylor’s success in Bitcoin a result of brilliant foresight, or was he simply in the right place at the right time? Bitcoin’s Performance: The timing of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases coincided with a strong bull run in the market. This rise in Bitcoin’s value undoubtedly contributed to Saylor’s renewed status as a financial savant. Reputation Rebound: It’s easy to appear “smart” when your investments are soaring. But how much of that success is due to skill, and how much is due to external factors like market trends? The Danger of Blindly Following Big Names While it’s tempting to follow someone like Michael Saylor, assuming he has insider knowledge or an unbeatable strategy, history teaches us a valuable lesson: Even Experts Can Be Wrong: Many celebrated investors have made costly mistakes, especially when riding trends. The dot-com bubble is a prime example of how quickly fortunes can change. Market Conditions Are Key: What worked for Saylor may not work for everyone, especially as market conditions evolve. Bitcoin’s past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Importance of Doing Your Own Homework Instead of blindly following big names, take the time to develop your own understanding of the market. Consider: Risk Tolerance: Are you prepared for the volatility that comes with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Market Fundamentals: Do you understand the underlying factors driving the asset’s value? Your Strategy: Does buying Bitcoin (or any other asset) align with your financial goals and investment timeline? Final Thoughts Michael Saylor’s success with Bitcoin is undeniably impressive, but it’s essential to view his story in context. His rise to prominence as a Bitcoin advocate came after years of MicroStrategy’s struggles, and much of his newfound fame coincided with Bitcoin’s broader bull market. Rather than simply mimicking his moves, take a step back and assess your own strategy. Remember, the smartest investors aren’t those who blindly follow the crowd—they’re the ones who do their research, weigh the risks, and make informed decisions. In trading and investing, doing your homework is the real key to success. Don’t let someone else’s narrative cloud your judgment.
NASDAQ:MSTREducation
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Bitcoin (BTC): This Bull Run Will Be Different!Pretty sure 80% of people are about to lose most of their money soon. There’s way too much ‘dumb money’ being thrown into the markets right now. Panic will set in, especially for those who struggle to control their emotions while trading. Trading isn’t just about ‘buy low, sell high.’ Markets have their own rhythm each cycle, and that rhythm is always unique and different. Even if you look at previous bull market tops, each one was formed differently. If you’ve been following us and sense that we know what we’re talking about, listen carefully: ◼️ Stay away from the markets when conditions are unclear. ◼️ Not every day is a trading day. ◼️ High leverage will destroy you. ◼️ And remember, unrealized P&L is not profit—sometimes you just have to take those profits! Swallow Team
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SwallowAcademy
48
Crude OIL SHORT Today Ran For +4R BreakdownNYMEX:CL1! "Successful trading has always been about understand the convictions, the strength and the weakness of buyers and sellers. Once you understand what the other traders are doing in the market, you can successfully trade with them." -Michael Valtos Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA) 10pt Stop / +4R Run... Well Done!! Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Education
by TreyHighPwr
2