Soybeans: The Global Protein Powerhouse🟡 1. Introduction
Soybeans might not look like much at first glance — small, round, unassuming. But behind every bean lies a global story of protein demand, export flows, and economic policy.
They feed livestock, fuel vehicles, nourish entire populations, and move markets. In fact, soybeans sit at the intersection of agriculture, industry, and geopolitics — making them one of the most actively traded and strategically watched commodities in the world.
If you’re looking to understand how soybeans move markets — and how you can trade them effectively — this article is your starting point.
🌍 2. Why the World Cares About Soybeans
Few agricultural commodities carry the weight soybeans do. Their importance spans both the food and energy sectors — and their global footprint is enormous.
Here’s why they matter:
Protein Meal: After processing, about 80% of the soybean becomes high-protein meal used to feed poultry, pigs, and cattle.
Soybean Oil: Roughly 20% is extracted as oil — a key ingredient in cooking, industrial products, and increasingly, biodiesel.
Biofuels: As the push for renewable energy grows, soybean oil plays a major role in sustainable fuel strategies.
Top producers:
United States — historically the world’s largest producer.
Brazil — now rivals or exceeds U.S. production in some years.
Argentina — a dominant player in soybean meal and oil exports.
Top importers:
China — imports over 60% of globally traded soybeans.
EU, Mexico, Japan — also large buyers.
Soybeans are a bridge commodity — connecting livestock feed, food manufacturing, and renewable energy. That’s why traders from Chicago to Shanghai watch every yield forecast and export announcement closely.
💹 3. CME Group Soybean Contracts
Soybeans trade on the CME Group’s CBOT platform, with two main futures products:
o Standard Soybeans
Ticker: ZS
Size = 5,000 bushels
Tick = 0.0025 = $12.50
Margin = ~$2,150
o Micro Soybeans
Ticker: MZS
Size = 500 bushels
Tick = 0.0050 = $2.50
Margin = ~$215
Soybean futures are among the most actively traded agricultural contracts, offering deep liquidity, tight spreads, and excellent volatility for strategic traders. Keep in mind that margins are subject to change — always confirm with your broker. Micro contracts are ideal for scaling in/out of trades or learning market structure without large capital risk.
📅 4. The Soybean Calendar
Soybeans follow a seasonal cycle that creates rhythm in the market — and a potential edge for informed traders.
In the United States:
🌱 Planting: Late April to early June
☀️ Pod development / blooming: July and early August (weather-sensitive)
🌾 Harvest: September through November
In Brazil:
🌱 Planting: October to December
🌾 Harvest: February through April
This staggered calendar means that soybean markets have multiple weather risk windows each year. It also means the export flows and global pricing dynamics shift between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres throughout the calendar year.
That’s why soybeans tend to have two major volatility windows — mid-summer (U.S. crop concerns) and early Q1 (South American weather). Traders often build seasonal strategies around these patterns — buying weakness before key USDA reports, fading rallies during overbought harvests, or trading futures spreads between U.S. and Brazilian supply flows.
🔄 5. How Soybeans Are Traded Globally
Soybeans move through a complex international web of growers, crushers, exporters, and consumers. As a trader, understanding this flow is essential — because each node introduces price risk, opportunity, and reaction points.
Key players:
o Hedgers:
U.S. and Brazilian farmers hedge production risk using futures or options on futures.
Exporters hedge shipping schedules against fluctuating basis and FX risk.
o Crushers:
Companies like Cargill or Bunge buy soybeans to crush into meal and oil.
Crush margin (aka “board crush”) affects demand and influences futures spreads.
o Speculators:
Institutional funds trade soybeans as a macro or relative value play.
Retail traders use micro contracts (MZS) to capture directional or seasonal moves.
o China:
Its purchasing pace (or sudden cancellations) can move markets dramatically.
Announcements of bulk U.S. purchases could trigger short-covering rallies.
Additionally, soybeans are sometimes traded indirectly via their by-products:
Soybean Meal (ZM)
Soybean Oil (ZL)
These contracts often lead or lag ZS based on demand shifts in feed or fuel.
📈 6. What Makes Soybeans Unique to Trade
Compared to wheat and corn, soybeans are:
More weather-sensitive during July and August (especially to drought and heat).
More globally integrated, thanks to China’s dominant import role.
More complex, due to crush dynamics and multiple end-use markets.
This multifaceted nature is why many professional traders monitor soybeans, even if they aren’t actively trading them every week.
📌 7. Summary / Takeaway
Soybeans are one of the most important — and most tradable — commodities in the world. They feed livestock, fuel industry, and anchor the agricultural markets across two hemispheres.
Their unique role in food, fuel, and feed makes them more than just another contract — they’re a barometer for global health, demand, and policy.
Whether you’re trading the standard ZS contract or getting started with MZS, mastering soybeans means understanding weather, trade flows, product demand, and seasonality.
🧭 This article is part of our agricultural futures trading series.
📅 Watch for the next release: “Weather and Corn: A Deep Dive into Temperature Impact”
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Trend Analysis
Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK): FAQ guide before investing🚀 Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK): A Deep Dive into Holdings and Hypothetical Returns
🌟 The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is a popular exchange-traded fund offering investors access to some of the largest and most dynamic growth-oriented companies in the U.S. market. MGK closely tracks the CRSP US Mega Cap Growth Index, emphasizing mega-cap stocks.
🎯 Key Features of MGK
💰 Expense Ratio: 0.07%, a cost-effective choice for investors.
📊 Assets Under Management: Around $25.42 billion.
💵 Dividend Yield: 0.44%, distributed quarterly.
🏆 Top Holdings:
🍎 Apple Inc. (AAPL): 14.34%
🖥️ Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): 11.93%
🎮 NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): 10.70%
📦 Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): 7.63%
📱 Meta Platforms Inc. (META): 4.33%
🔌 Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): 3.54%
🚗 Tesla Inc. (TSLA): 3.22%
💊 Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY): 3.20%
💳 Visa Inc. (V): 2.76%
🔍 Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): 2.31%
📌 Sector Allocation:
💻 Technology: ~52.8%
🛒 Consumer Discretionary: 15.9%
📡 Communication Services: 11.0%
📈 Performance Overview
MGK has consistently demonstrated strong returns:
🗓️ Year-to-Date (YTD): 0.96%
📅 1-Year Return: ~21.09%
📆 3-Year Return: ~23.26%
📊 5-Year Return: ~19.26%
💸 Hypothetical Investment Scenarios
Assuming an average annual return of 19.26%, here's how various investments might grow over five years:
💲 $10,000 Investment:
Year 1: $11,926
Year 2: $14,219
Year 3: $16,951
Year 4: $20,207
Year 5: $24,070
💲 $100,000 Investment:
Year 1: $119,260
Year 2: $142,190
Year 3: $169,510
Year 4: $202,070
Year 5: $240,700
💲 $1,000,000 Investment:
Year 1: $1,192,600
Year 2: $1,421,900
Year 3: $1,695,100
Year 4: $2,020,700
Year 5: $2,407,000
⚠️ Note: These returns are hypothetical and assume consistent annual performance, which may not reflect actual market volatility.
🔑 Considerations for Investors
🎯 Concentration Risk: MGK heavily invests in technology and a few major stocks, tying its success closely to these specific companies.
📉 Market Volatility: Although historically strong, MGK can be highly volatile, particularly during tech-sector downturns.
📈 Long-Term Growth: Ideal for investors seeking significant long-term capital appreciation through prominent U.S. growth firms.
📌 In Summary: MGK provides focused exposure to U.S. mega-cap growth stocks with a strong track record. Investors should consider portfolio diversification carefully due to its sector concentration.
Unlocking Market Cycles with the RSI Cyclic Smoothed IndicatorIntro
In the world of technical analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is established. However, the RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator takes this classic tool to the next level by incorporating cyclic smoothing and dynamic bands. This post will explore the features, configuration, and practical applications of this powerful indicator.
What is the RSI Cyclic Smoothed Indicator ?
The RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator is an advanced version of the traditional RSI. It enhances the classic RSI by adding cyclic smoothing and cyclic memory, allowing it to better adapt to market cycles and provide more accurate signals.
Dynamic Bands
One of the standout features of the RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator is its dynamic bands. These bands adjust automatically to the asset’s cyclical levels, providing clearer signals in varying market conditions. The adaptive upper and lower bands help traders avoid whipsaw trades and identify overbought and oversold conditions more effectively.
What kind of indicator is it ?
The RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator falls into the category of oscillators. Oscillators are technical analysis tools that vary over time within a banded range, typically used to identify overbought and oversold conditions.
Leading or Lagging ?
The RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator is primarily a lagging indicator. It smooths the RSI data to reduce noise and provide more reliable signals, but it does not predict future price movements.
Key Features
Cyclic Smoothing: Reduces noise and enhances signal accuracy.
Dynamic Bands: Adaptive upper and lower bands that adjust to market cycles.
Cyclic Memory: Uses the dominant cycle length to optimize signal accuracy.
Benefits Compared to Normal RSI
Enhanced Signal Accuracy: The cyclic smoothing reduces noise and false signals, providing more reliable trading signals.
Adaptability to Market Cycles: The cyclic memory allows the indicator to adapt to the dominant market cycle, making it more responsive to cyclical changes.
Dynamic Bands: Unlike the fixed levels in normal RSI, the dynamic bands adjust to market conditions, offering better identification of overbought and oversold levels.
Reduced Whipsaw Trades: The smoothing process helps avoid the frequent false signals that can occur with the normal RSI, especially in volatile markets.
Indicator Configuration
Configuring the RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator involves setting the dominant cycle length and adjusting the smoothing parameters. The key parameters include:
Dominant Cycle Length: Defines the duration of the dominant market cycle.
Smoothing Factor: Reduces fluctuations and noise.
Cyclic Memory: Stores the indicator’s history to calculate dynamic reference levels.
Ideal settings vary based on market conditions, but a common approach is to start with a dominant cycle length that matches the asset’s typical cycle and adjust the smoothing factor to balance responsiveness and noise reduction.
Enhancing Signal Accuracy with a Trend Indicator
To enhance the accuracy of signals generated by the RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator, it can be used in conjunction with trend indicators. Examples of trend indicators include:
Moving Averages: Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are widely used to identify trend direction.
MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence helps reveal both direction and underlying momentum.
ADX: Average Directional Index measures the strength of a trend.
Combining these tools helps confirm signals and reduce false positives.
MTF Chart Setup
Below is an example chart showcasing the RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator in action. The chart highlights trading signals where the signal line crosses above or below the adaptive bands, providing clear entry and exit points. Below are the 1H, 2H and 4H overbought aligned.
Alternatives
While the RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator is powerful, there are other alternatives that also focus on overbought and oversold conditions:
Stochastic Oscillator: This indicator measures the level of the closing price relative to the range of prices over a certain period. It identifies overbought and oversold conditions with key levels below 20 (oversold) and above 80 (overbought).
Williams %R: Similar to the Stochastic Oscillator, Williams %R compares the closing price to the high-low range over a specified period. It indicates overbought conditions above -20 and oversold conditions below -80.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index): The CCI measures the deviation of the price from its average price over a given period. It identifies overbought conditions above +100 and oversold conditions below -100.
Bollinger Bands: While not an oscillator, Bollinger Bands can be used to identify overbought and oversold conditions when the price touches the upper or lower band.
Additional Insights
The RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator is highly responsive to market moves and can be fine-tuned to match the dominant cycle of the asset being analysed. For more in-depth information, refer to Chapter 4 of "Decoding the Hidden Market Rhythm, Part 1".
Practical Tips
Combine with Trend Indicators: Use the RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator alongside trend indicators to confirm signals.
Adjust Cyclic Parameters: Fine-tune the cyclic parameters to match the market conditions and dominant cycle.
Monitor Dynamic Bands: Pay close attention to the adaptive bands for overbought and oversold signals.
Backtest Thoroughly: Before using the indicator in live trading, backtest it on historical data to understand its performance and adjust settings accordingly.
Stay Updated: Market conditions change, so periodically review and adjust the indicator settings to ensure they remain optimal.
Which Securities Does This Apply For?
The RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator can be applied to a wide range of securities, including: Stocks: Useful for identifying cyclical patterns and overbought/oversold conditions in individual stocks. ETFs: Effective for analyzing exchange-traded funds, especially those tracking cyclical sectors. Forex: Valuable for currency pairs, helping traders identify market cycles and potential reversals. Commodities: Applicable to commodities like gold, oil, and agricultural products, where cyclical movements are common. Cryptocurrencies: Can be used to analyze digital assets, providing insights into cyclical trends and volatility.
Conclusion
The RSI Cyclic Smoothed indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to enhance their technical analysis. By incorporating cyclic smoothing and dynamic bands, it provides clearer and more accurate signals, helping traders navigate complex market cycles.
What is Opening Range Breakout (ORB)Hello mates today i want to share an Educational post about Opening range breakout a very common and old strategy used by many traders and it's still pretty effective. I hope you will read the complete post and like my publication too friends.
So let's understand about Opening Range Breakout below-::
⚡Introduction to Opening Range Breakout-::
In the world of trading timing can be everything. One of the strategies that traders use to capitalize on market movements at the start of the trading day is the Opening Range Breakout (ORB). This technique is particularly popular among day traders because it leverages the market's early volatility to make quick profits. In this article we'll dive deep into what ORB is, how it works, and how traders can effectively use it.
⚡What is the Opening Range-::
The "opening range" refers to the price range established during the first few minutes of a trading session. This range is defined by the high and low prices observed within this period. Depending on the trader's preference and the asset being traded, this range can be set over different time intervals, commonly 5, 15, or 30 minutes.
⚡Understanding the Breakout-::
A breakout occurs when the price moves outside the opening range, either above the high or below the low. This movement indicates a potential direction for the day's trend. The idea behind the ORB strategy is that the price, once it breaks out of this range, is likely to continue moving in that direction, giving traders a chance to enter a position early in the day and ride the trend.
⚡Why Use ORB-::
1.Early Market Volatility-: The market often shows significant volatility at the opening bell, driven by overnight news, earnings reports, and economic data. This creates opportunities for sharp price movements.
2.Defined Risk and Reward-: Since the opening range is defined, traders can set clear entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, making risk management straightforward.
3.Capturing Early Trends-: ORB allows traders to capture trends early, often before the broader market catches on. This can lead to significant profits in a short period.
⚡How to Implement the ORB Strategy-::
1-Identify the Opening Range-: At the start of the trading session, observe the price action and note the high and low points within your chosen time frame (e.g., the first 15 minutes).
2-Set Breakout Levels-: Once the opening range is established, these levels (the high and low) become your breakout levels.
3-Place Orders-::
Long Position-: If the price breaks above the high of the opening range, enter a long position (buy).
Short Position-: If the price breaks below the low of the opening range, enter a short position (sell).
4-Set Stop-Loss-: A common approach is to place a stop-loss just inside the opening range. For example, if you enter a long position, your stop-loss might be slightly below the high of the range.
5-Set Profit Targets-: Profit targets can be set based on a fixed ratio (e.g., 2:1 risk/reward ratio), or by trailing the stop-loss as the price moves in your favor.
⚡Factors to Consider for ORB Success-::
1-Market Conditions-: ORB tends to work best in markets with high liquidity and volatility. Stocks with news catalysts, or major indices, are often good candidates.
2-Time Frame Selection-: The choice of the opening range time frame is critical. Shorter time frames (e.g., 5 minutes) might offer more frequent signals, but they can also lead to more false breakouts. Longer time frames (e.g., 30 minutes) may provide more reliable signals but fewer opportunities.
3-Volume Confirmation-: It's often wise to confirm breakouts with an increase in volume, which can indicate the strength of the move.
4-Avoiding False Breakouts-: Not every breakout leads to a sustained move. To avoid false breakouts, some traders wait for a retest of the breakout level or use additional technical indicators, such as moving averages or momentum oscillators, to confirm the trend.
⚡Example of ORB in Action-::
Let’s consider a stock that has an opening range of 100 to 105 in the first 15 minutes of trading. Here’s how a trader might approach this:
Breakout Above 105-: The trader places a buy order at 105.10 (a little above the breakout level) and sets a stop-loss at 104.50 (just below the high of the opening range). The profit target might be set at 107.20, assuming a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Breakout Below 100-: Alternatively, if the stock breaks below 100, the trader could short the stock at 99.90 with a stop-loss at 100.50 and a profit target at 97.80.
⚡Advantages of ORB-::
Clarity-: The strategy provides clear entry and exit points, reducing guesswork.
Structure-: It imposes discipline by setting predefined rules for trading.
Simplicity-: ORB is relatively simple to understand and execute, making it accessible to traders of all experience levels.
⚡Challenges and Limitations-::
False Breakouts-: These can lead to losses if not managed carefully.
Whipsaws-: In highly volatile markets, prices might break the range multiple times, leading to potential whipsaws.
Over-Reliance on Opening Range-: Solely relying on the opening range might ignore broader market context or trends from previous days.
⚡Conclusion-::
The Opening Range Breakout strategy is a powerful tool in a trader's arsenal, particularly for those who thrive on early market action. While it offers a structured approach to capturing trends, success with ORB requires discipline, proper risk management, and an understanding of market conditions. By combining ORB with other strategies or indicators, traders can increase their chances of capturing profitable moves while minimizing risks.
Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting, mastering the ORB strategy can provide you with the edge needed to navigate the fast-paced world of day trading.
Thanks for reading the post, I hope you will like the information shared above and like my idea too.
Best Regards- Amit
How To Setup & Use The Trend Trading IndicatorThis video gives an in depth explanation of each setting of the Trend Trading Indicator so you can understand how to set up the indicator properly and get your desired results.
We cover the following:
Master trend signals and settings
How to configure your master trend signal timeframes correctly
How to get rid of signals when the market is ranging
Each type of extra signal: strong all timeframe trends, pullbacks during strong trends, trend score signals and more
What timeframes and settings to use for intraday trading
Customizing the settings to get the results that fit your trading style
Make sure to test out your settings on various markets using historical data to ensure you have the indicator performing according to your specific parameters.
If you have any questions about using the indicator or the settings, feel free to reach out to us.
Happy Trading :)
The CBBI, identify the timing the end of the Bull Run cryptosIntroduction: The bitcoin price is a highly cyclical market structured around the halving event that takes place every 4 years. BTC's last halving took place in April 2024, and it is around this event that our current cycle is structured, which should end at the end of 2025 if and only if the cycle repetition still applies (Bitcoin's famous 4-year cycle).
To find a more precise time frame for the end of the current crypto bull run, there are a number of indicators, some of which are based on Bitcoin blockchain data. This is particularly true of the CBBI Index, which we'll be presenting in this new TradingView analysis.
Don't hesitate to subscribe to our TradingView account to follow all our daily analyses on cryptos and financial markets in general.
1) Definition of the CBBI Index (Colin Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index)
The CBBI Index, an acronym for Colin Talks Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index, is an indicator developed by Colin Talks Crypto, a well-known analyst and popularizer in the crypto-currency community, notably on YouTube. Its aim is to give a global reading of the Bitcoin market's position in its cycle, by combining several technical and on-chain indicators.
The CBBI synthesizes all these indicators and calculates a final score. It is the value of this score that tells us whether the Bitcoin price is close to the beginning of its bullish cycle or close to the end of its bullish cycle.
Rather than relying on a single volatile indicator, CBBI compiles nine major metrics such as MVRV Ratio, RHODL Ratio, NUPL and Reserve Risk.
The result is expressed in the form of a score from 0 to 100:
A score close to 100 suggests that the market is overheating, that the final peak of the cycle is in sight, and that there is therefore a risk of a downward reversal.
Conversely, a low score (close to 0) indicates a probable end to the bear market, and an increased likelihood of the cycle reversing upwards.
Looking at the chart of the CBBI Index (the green curve on the graph below) overlaid with the bitcoin price, we can see that the CBBI Index has been highly relevant in identifying the beginnings and ends of bullish cycles for BTC.
2) The current CBBI Index score suggests that the crypto bull run is not yet over
The current CBBI Index score is below 80 and is still a long way from the bull run end identification zone. Naturally, no single indicator is relevant on its own, so we'll need to combine the CBBI Index with other indicators influencing the crypto market, in particular the underlying trend in global liquidity and the theoretical price targets from the graphical analysis of bitcoin's long-term price charts.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Tutorial On FOMC Support and ResistanceUsing the 8-hour chart on the Wednesday of an FOMC release, I use a purple line on the 10am EST 8-hour candle's open as the FOMC release price point.
I then use a purple highlighter to signal the date of the release.
I have come to the conclusion that the Dow Jones Futures moves and finds support/resistance using the FOMC releases. Nothing else on the chart matters BUT each release.
There are only 2 ways these levels are used.
1. Support and Resistance levels
2. Mean Reversion levels
I have not found a single source on the ENTIRE internet that describes this phenomenon and would like to think I am quite lucky for stumbling upon this observation.
Below are examples of how/what to look for when using these levels.
Step 1:
On the 8 hour chart, mark the 10am EST opening price of that candle with a purple line and highlight
Step 2:
Project it across and see how price reacts. It will either mean revert or bounce from it
It is hilariously funny to me that price stopped dead within a measly 84 ticks away from the DEC 2023 FOMC level before bouncing.
Support and Resistance:
Mean Reversion:
Price mean reverting around the 10am opening price of FOMC Wednesday.
Keep Your Confidence with CDV!!!Using Cumulative Delta Volume (CDV) in your analysis can help you remain confident that you are on the RIGHT side of your trade. Here is a video describing how I use CDV in my analysis as well as an example of how I've used it to enter a trade I've recently taken on Natural Gas Futures! (NG)
I hope this has been helpful. Happy trading!
How to Use Drawing Tools on TradingViewThis tutorial video discusses why and how traders use different types of trading tools, how to access the trading tools in Tradingview, and a few examples of how and why you might apply them.
Learn more about using Tradingview to trade futures with Optimus Futures:
optimusfutures.com
Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
KISS Trading SystemOverview :
Trading process should be as simple as possible. One of the simple method to trade is primarily identify direction, find a good location to entry, wait for confirmation in the location, and finally execute the trade when the risk reward ratio is good.
1. Direction
To identify direction, follow the market structure. Higher high and higher low indicates price is in a bullish trend (uptrend), while lower high and lower low indicates the price is in a bearish trend (downtrend). If there is no clear structure higher high and higher low or lower and high lower low, price is in sideways mode. Best is to avoid trade under this condition until clear trend is formed.
2. Location
Every time price create a new breakout structure, mark the the structure as our potential location for entry. There are some occasion where price does not pullback to the location and continuing the trend by creating a new breakout structure. Do not FOMO, just wait for the next location and confirmation within the location to entry and minimize your risk.
3. Confirmation
Patience is the key. Wait for price to pullback at higher time frame location, and focus for confirmation in lower time frame to entry and reduce risk. Time is fractal, the structure pattern is same on all timeframes. Choosing the right timeframe pair is crucial. Refer to table in the notes below for timeframe pairing.
4. Risk Reward
This is the main essence in trading, controlling risk and preserving capital. Entry without doubt when the risk reward are good. Execute, and trust your setup.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern: A Strong Reversal SignalBullish Engulfing Pattern: A Strong Reversal Signal
The bullish engulfing pattern is a two-candlestick formation that suggests a possible reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend in the financial market. This particular pattern holds immense value for traders and technical analysts as it equips them with the means to discern potential buying opportunities. In this article, we will explain how traders implement this pattern in their trading strategies.
What Is a Bullish Engulfing Pattern?
The bullish engulfing is a technical analysis pattern consisting of two candles. This formation emerges when a large bearish candlestick is succeeded by a larger green one that entirely engulfs it.
What does the bullish engulfing mean? The bullish engulfing indicates a potential shift in market sentiment, suggesting that buying pressure might surpass selling pressure in the near future and highlighting a possible reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Traders can find the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern across various financial instruments, including currencies, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, ETFs, and indices.
Bearish Engulfing vs Bullish Engulfing
The bullish engulfing pattern has a counterparty - bearish engulfing. The bearish engulfing pattern occurs during an uptrend, indicating a change in market sentiment and potential price reversal to the downside. It consists of two candles, where the second is larger and bearish and completely engulfs the body of the preceding candlestick.
How Can You Trade the Bullish Engulfing Pattern?
Here are some steps traders consider when trading with the bullish engulfing:
- Identification: Look for a clear bullish engulfing setup on a price chart at the end of a downtrend.
- Entry Point: Although candlestick patterns don't provide precise entry and exit points as chart patterns do, there are general rules you could use.
The entry point could be set slightly above the high of the bullish engulfing formation. In the conservative approach, traders enter the market after several candles close higher. In a risky approach, traders open a buy position after the pattern is formed.
- Exit Point: A stop-loss level could be below the low of the engulfing candle or below a nearby support level. A take-profit level could be based on a trader’s risk/reward ratio or key resistance levels.
- Risk Management: You can consider a risk management strategy to potentially limit losses. Traders focus on appropriate position sizing and risk-to-reward ratios to maintain a balanced approach to trading.
- Trade Monitoring: Once you have entered the trade, monitor price action and market conditions. Pay attention to any sign of reversal confirmation or potential obstacles that may invalidate the signal.
- Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Adjustment: As the trade progresses, you may consider adjusting your stop-loss level to protect potential returns. Similarly, you may consider adjusting your take-profit level if the price signals a strong uptrend.
Live Market Example
Let's consider an example of a bullish engulfing on the forex chart. The bullish engulfing candle in the example below is marked with 1 and 2. The trader sets the entry point above the green candle and a stop-loss level below it. The take profit is at the closest resistance level.
How Do Traders Confirm a Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern?
Confirming this pattern enhances the reliability of its signals and helps traders make informed decisions. Here are key steps to confirm it:
- Volume Analysis: Traders typically look for increased buying trading volume accompanying the candle. Higher volume suggests stronger buyers’ interest and validates the reversal signal.
- Follow-Up Candlesticks: Waiting for subsequent closes can confirm the upward momentum. A series of higher closes strengthens its credibility.
- Support Levels: If it forms near a significant support level, this adds context to the reversal, as buyers are stepping in at a critical price point.
- Technical Indicators: Complementary indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator, or a pair of moving averages can confirm the shift in sentiment.
- Market Context: Traders assess the overall market trend and news to ensure the formation aligns with broader market conditions.
Bullish Engulfing and Other Patterns
Let’s take a closer look at how this pattern compares to other chart formations, like the piercing and harami.
What Is the Difference Between a Bullish Engulfing and a Piercing Pattern?
A bullish engulfing pattern occurs when a large bearish bar is followed by a larger candlestick that completely overtakes the former's body. This indicates a strong potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
In contrast, a piercing formation also signals a potential reversal but is slightly weaker. It forms when a bearish candle is followed by a bullish candle that closes above its midpoint but doesn’t envelop it entirely.
What Is the Difference Between a Bullish Engulfing Pattern and a Bullish Harami Pattern?
The bullish harami pattern consists of a large red candle followed by a smaller green candle that is completely contained within the body of the red candle. This formation suggests a potential reversal but is generally considered less strong than the bullish engulfing candle pattern, as the latter completely envelops the previous bearish bar, showing more decisive buying pressure.
Final Thoughts
While this pattern offers valuable insights into potential trend reversals, it's essential to complement it with technical indicators and robust risk management for effective use. Also, be sure to explore other patterns as they may look very similar but provide different signals.
FAQ
What Is a Bullish Engulfing Pattern?
A bullish engulfing pattern is a two-candlestick formation in technical analysis that suggests a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. It occurs when a large bearish candlestick is followed by a larger bullish candlestick that completely engulfs the body of the preceding bearish candle.
How Reliable Is the Bullish Engulfing Pattern?
The reliability of the bullish engulfing pattern as a reversal signal depends on various factors, including the overall market context, confirmation from other technical indicators, and the timeframe being analysed. While it can be a strong indication of a potential trend reversal, it is not foolproof and should be used in conjunction with other tools and fundamental analysis.
What Is a Bullish Engulfing Candle Trading Strategy?
The bullish engulfing candle strategy involves identifying this pattern at the end of a downtrend as a signal for a potential sentiment shift. Traders typically enter a buy position slightly above the high of the closing bar, with stop-loss levels set below the low or beneath nearby support levels. Take-profit levels are determined based on risk/reward ratios or key resistance levels.
Do Wicks Matter in Engulfing Candlesticks?
Yes, wicks matter in the formation. The wicks provide insights into price rejection and volatility. For a strong confirmation, the absence of long upper wicks suggests sustained buying pressure, reinforcing its validity as a reversal signal.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How to Trend the Trend for Beginners part 3 Hey Traders so today we are going to the final part of the series for beginners about how to trade trends using techincal analysis.
So today we will go over what I believe is the best way to confirm that the market is trending using the best method.
Enjoy!
Clifford
How to Master Premium & Discount For Better EntriesA lot of traders talk about premium and discount, but very few actually know how to use it properly. Most just draw Fibonacci tools on random legs and try to catch reactions at the 61.8% level. That kind of trading lacks structure and context. If you're serious about using Smart Money Concepts the right way, then you need to understand where value exists in the market and how to position yourself accordingly.
This guide is all about mastering the premium vs discount model using a 4H bias, entries on the 1H or 15M, and refinements based solely on Fair Value Gaps. No order blocks. No guessing. Just clean structure, displacement, and a focus on institutional logic.
Establishing a Valid 4H Dealing Range
Your entire analysis starts with the 4H chart. That’s where you define the dealing range, the leg of price that caused a significant shift in market structure, usually confirmed by displacement and a break of a previous swing.
To do this correctly:
Identify a 4H swing high to swing low (or low to high) that broke structure and created an imbalance.
Anchor your range from that swing point to the extreme, this becomes your dealing range.
Mark the 50% of this range — this is your equilibrium line.
Everything above this midpoint is premium, everything below is discount.
You’re not drawing fibs for retracement levels. You’re using them to separate cheap price from expensive price.
Premium vs Discount: Why It Matters
The logic is simple: institutions buy at discount and sell at premium. They don’t place large positions in the middle of the range, they accumulate when price is cheap and distribute when price is expensive.
Once you’ve marked out your 4H range, you now have a framework:
Price in discount (below the 50%) = potential buy setups.
Price in premium (above the 50%) = potential sell setups.
The key is to only look for trades in the right part of the range. If price is in premium and you're trying to long, you're working against smart money. If it's in discount and you're trying to short, you're fading accumulation.
Refining the Setup on 1H or 15M
Once price enters the zone you’re interested in, premium or discount. Drop to the 1H or 15M charts to look for entries.
But we’re not trading any structure or supply/demand zone. We’re only interested in Fair Value Gaps. Why? Because FVGs are the cleanest way to spot imbalance — they show where price moved too aggressively and left inefficiency behind.
Here's what to do:
Watch for displacement on 1H or 15M once price taps into the 4H premium or discount zone.
The move should break short-term structure and leave a clear FVG.
Wait for price to retrace into that FVG.
Entry is placed inside the gap, preferably in the upper or lower third depending on direction.
Your invalidation is the low or high of the displacement move.
The FVG gives you a clean risk-to-reward setup that is backed by structure, context, and smart money intent.
Example: Long from Discount
Let’s say price is trading inside the discount zone of a 4H bullish dealing range. You now drop to 15M and see a sharp move higher that breaks structure and creates a clean 15M FVG.
Now you wait.
If price retraces into that gap and shows some form of reaction (volume, reaction wick, or small lower timeframe shift), you have a valid long. The trade is high probability because:
It’s inside 4H discount
The 15M displacement confirms smart money is stepping in
The FVG is your refined entry zone
Target is always the next liquidity pool inside premium.
Example: Short from Premium
Opposite logic applies.
If price trades into the premium zone of a 4H bearish range, you drop to 1H or 15M and wait for displacement to the downside. When you get a strong bearish move that leaves behind a Fair Value Gap and breaks intraday structure, you mark the FVG.
When price retraces into it, you execute your short. Stop is above the displacement high. Target is the first liquidity level inside discount, such as an old low or a clean equal low.
Rules for FVG Entries (1H/15M)
To keep your execution sharp, stick to these:
Only enter FVGs that form from displacement moves.
The FVG must break intraday structure.
It must form inside the 4H premium or discount zone, no exceptions.
Avoid FVGs that form in the middle of the range or during chop.
Make sure higher timeframe context supports the direction.
This filters out 90% of weak setups and forces you to trade in sync with value.
Targets and Exits
Where you enter is based on imbalance and structure, but where you exit is based on liquidity and the premium/discount model in reverse.
If you long from discount, you should be targeting premium levels.
If you short from premium, you should be targeting discount levels.
More specifically:
Look for old highs/lows
Clean equal highs/lows
Unfilled FVGs in the opposite zone
This way, you’re always exiting into areas where the market is likely to reverse or stall, and not overstaying your trade.
Conclusion
Trading from premium or discount zones isn’t just a concept, it’s a framework that puts you in line with institutional activity. When you combine it with FVGs, you have a clean, mechanical way to structure your trades.
Keep your bias on the 4H. Mark your ranges clearly. Drop to 1H or 15M only when price is in a valid zone, and only take entries on FVGs that form from strong displacement. If you stay disciplined with this model, you’ll avoid chasing price and start trading from areas of true value.
___________________________________
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Best GOLD XAUUSD Psychological Levels Indicator on TradingView
There is one free technical indicator that will show you every significant psychological level on Gold XAUUSD chart.
It is available on TradingView and it is very easy to set.
Discover the best psychological support and resistance indicator for Gold trading , its settings and useful tips.
First, let's discuss the significance of psychological levels in GOLD XAUUSD analysis and trading.
The classic way of the search of significant supports and resistance is based on the analysis of a historic price action.
However, while Gold constantly sets new historic highs such a method does not work, because there are no historic resistances to rely on.
In such a situation, the only reliable strategy to find potentially strong resistances is to analyze psychological levels.
Psychological levels are the round numbers based price levels. Because of the common human psychological biases, these levels attract the interest of the market participants and the prices tend to react to them.
A great example of a psychological level in Gold trading is 3000 level.
It served as a resistance first and after a breakout turned into an important support.
And I found a free technical indicator that plots all the significant psychological levels efficiently.
One more thing to note is that I strictly recommend searching for psychological levels on a daily time frame, because it provides the most relevant perspective.
To use this indicator, search "round" in indicators wind ow.
It is called "Round numbers above and below".
Click on that and it will start working immediately.
You can see that the indicator plotted 3 significant psychological resistances above current prices and 3 supports below on Gold chat.
In the settings of the indicator, you can change the number of levels to identify and change the style of the horizontal lines.
Examine the reaction of the price to psychological supports that the indicator shows. These levels may remain significant in futures and applied for pullback/breakout trading.
With a crazy bullish rally that we contemplate on Gold this year, psychological levels will be the most reliable technical analysis tools for the identification of future bearish reversals and corrections.
This free technical indicator on TradingView will help you in search of the strongest ones.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Ethereum and the Pectra Upgrade: ETH Growth PotentialEthereum is approaching a significant upgrade called Pectra, which, according to analysts at Trenovia Group, could become a major catalyst for ETH’s price appreciation—especially if network activity continues to rise.
What Does Pectra Bring?
Pectra continues Ethereum’s path toward greater technological maturity. The upgrade introduces enhancements to the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), optimizes validator coordination, and strengthens smart contract security. As Trenovia Group highlights, such developments are essential to the platform's long-term competitiveness and stability.
Potential Impact on ETH Price
Based on Trenovia Group’s internal analysis, ETH could strengthen after the Pectra upgrade, assuming a rise in network engagement. Past events, such as The Merge, have historically driven price momentum. However, sustained growth depends on actual increases in user activity, transaction volumes, and new project deployments.
Network Activity as a Growth Indicator
Network usage is one of the most critical metrics tracked by Trenovia Group. A surge in active wallets, decentralized applications (dApps), and DeFi platforms often translates to higher demand for ETH. These indicators are at the core of our investment strategies and client advisory services.
Trenovia Group’s Position
As a company focused on digital asset analytics and blockchain innovation, Trenovia Group views Pectra as a strategically important upgrade. It further solidifies Ethereum’s role in decentralized finance and Web3. We will continue to deliver in-depth market insights and recommendations as the network evolves.
Conclusion
Ethereum is entering a new phase of development. Should the Pectra upgrade lead to a measurable increase in network activity, Trenovia Group anticipates a favorable environment for ETH growth, reaffirming its position as a leader in the crypto market.
Is There the Best Moving Average For Swing Trading?Is There the Best Moving Average For Swing Trading?
In swing trading, moving averages are widely used to analyse market trends and identify potential turning points. In this article, we’ll dive into the most commonly used MAs, their unique characteristics, and how they can be applied in swing trading strategies.
What Are Moving Averages?
You definitely know what moving averages are. However, we need to start our article with a brief introduction to this market analysis tool.
A moving average (MA) is a fundamental tool in technical analysis that helps traders understand the direction of a market trend by smoothing out price fluctuations, often touted among the best indicators for swing trading. Instead of focusing on the volatile ups and downs, MAs calculate an average of prices over a specific period, such as 20, 50, or 200 periods. This gives traders a clearer picture of the overall trend by filtering out short-term volatility.
There are different types of moving averages, but they all work on the same principle: tracking the average price over time to highlight the market's trajectory. For example, a 20-period MA shows the average (usually closing price but a trader can choose highs, lows, and opens) over the past 20 periods, updating as new prices come in. This rolling calculation creates a line on the chart, making it easy to identify whether the market is trending upwards, downwards, or moving sideways.
Types of Moving Averages
Moving averages come in various forms, each with unique characteristics that cater to different trading styles and strategies.
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
The simple moving average (SMA) is the most straightforward type, calculated by averaging the closing prices (but a trader can choose any price type) over a set number of periods. For example, a 20-period SMA adds up the last 20 closing prices and divides by 20. It’s popular among traders who want a broader view of price trends without overreacting to short-term fluctuations, making it a contender for one of the best moving averages for swing trading. However, SMAs can lag behind price action, as they give equal weight to all prices in the calculation.
Hull Moving Average (HMA)
The hull moving average (HMA) is designed to reduce lag while maintaining a smooth line. By combining weighted averages with additional smoothing techniques, the HMA offers a balance of speed and clarity, making it an underrated moving average for swing trading.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The exponential moving average (EMA) prioritises recent prices, giving them more weight in the calculation. This makes it more responsive to price changes compared to the SMA. Swing traders often use EMAs in faster-moving markets, where quick adjustments to trend shifts are crucial, with 8- and 21-period EMAs considered by some traders as two of the best EMAs for swing trading. For instance, a 20-period EMA reacts faster to sudden price movements than a 20-period SMA, helping traders spot potential reversals sooner.
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
Similar to the EMA, the weighted moving average (WMA) also gives more importance to recent prices but does so with a linear weighting system. This means the most recent price has the greatest impact, gradually decreasing with older data. WMAs are less common but useful when traders want a more precise reflection of recent price action.
How to Use Moving Averages in Swing Analysis and Trading
Moving averages are versatile tools that can provide valuable insights for swing traders. Beyond highlighting trends, they can help identify potential turning points and dynamic support or resistance levels. Here’s how they’re commonly used in swing trading:
1. Identifying Trends
MAs are widely used to assess the direction of a trend. For instance, if the price consistently stays above a rising moving average, it suggests an upward trend. Conversely, when prices remain below a declining moving average, the market could be trending downward. Swing traders often rely on shorter moving averages, like the 20-period, for identifying trends that align with their trading horizon.
2. Spotting Reversals with Crossovers
Crossovers happen when two MAs intersect. A common example is a shorter MA crossing above a longer one, which may indicate a shift towards bullish momentum and vice versa.
3. Dynamic Support and Resistance
MAs act as floating support and resistance levels. MAs serve as a support level in an uptrend, with the price bouncing off it repeatedly. In a downtrend, the same moving average might act as resistance, limiting upward moves.
4. Filtering Market Noise
In choppy markets, MAs can smooth out minor fluctuations, making it easier to focus on the bigger picture. Swing traders often use longer MAs, such as the 50-day or 200-day, to filter out irrelevant short-term movements.
5. Timing Entry and Exit Zones
Many traders use crossovers to time their entries and exits, though it’s worth noting their lagging nature means they can result in untimely trades. They can also provide context. For example, if the price approaches a key moving average after a strong move, it might indicate a consolidation phase or a potential reversal, allowing traders to adapt their analysis.
Common Moving Averages for Swing Trading: The 20, 50, and 200 MAs
Swing traders often turn to the 20-, 50-, and 200-period moving averages as their go-to tools for analysing market trends. Each serves a specific purpose, helping traders gauge short-, medium-, and long-term price movements. These moving averages are often used together.
20-Period Moving Average
The 20-period MA is a favourite for short-term trend analysis. It reacts quickly to price changes; therefore, traders use it to identify recent momentum or potential trend shifts. Traders frequently watch for price “bounces” off the 20-period MA as potential indications of continuation in the current trend.
50-Period Moving Average
The 50-period MA provides a medium-term perspective, offering a smoother look at price trends. It’s slower to react than the 20-period MA but avoids being overly lagging. This balance makes it useful for identifying sustained trends while filtering out minor price noise. When prices interact with the 50-period MA, it often acts as a dynamic support or resistance level.
200-Period Moving Average
The 200-period MA is the benchmark for long-term trend analysis. It’s often used to determine the overall market direction. This MA is also a widely followed indicator for institutional traders, adding weight to its significance. Interactions with the 200-period MA often mark key turning points or areas of consolidation.
Traders also monitor crossovers between the 50- and 200-period MAs, recognised by some as the best moving average crossover for swing trading. For instance:
- Golden Cross: When the 50-period MA crosses above the 200-period MA, it suggests potential bullish momentum.
- Death Cross: When the 50-period MA drops below the 200-period MA, it signals a possible bearish shift.
Using Them Together
Using the 20-, 50-, and 200-period MAs together offers a comprehensive approach to identifying the best moving average crossover setups, allowing traders to see the bigger picture while still tracking short-term shifts. For instance, when the price breaks above the 200-period MA while the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, it may signal the beginning of a broader bullish trend. Meanwhile, a price drop below all three MAs could suggest broader bearish momentum.
Other Moving Average Combinations for Swing Trading
While the 20, 50, and 200-period MAs are staples in swing trading, exploring other combinations can offer nuanced insights tailored to specific trading strategies. Some alternative moving average setups that traders often employ include:
8-Period and 21-Period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)
This pairing is favoured by traders seeking to capture short-term price movements with greater sensitivity. They call this the best EMA crossover strategy. The 8-period EMA responds swiftly to recent price changes, while the 21-period EMA provides a slightly broader perspective.
10-Period and 50-Period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs)
Combining the 10- and 50-period SMAs offers a balance between short-term agility and medium-term trend identification. This combination helps traders filter out minor price fluctuations and focus on more sustained movements.
28-Period and 50-Period HMAs
For traders focused on short-to-medium-term trends, the 28- and 50-period HMAs offer a balanced approach. The 28-period HMA reacts quickly to price changes, while the 50-period HMA provides a steadier view of the broader trend. Crossovers between the two can signal potential bullish or bearish momentum shifts, benefiting from the HMA’s reduced lag.
13-Period and 34-Period WMAs
Rooted in Fibonacci sequences, the 13- and 34-period WMAs are employed by traders who believe in the natural rhythm of the markets. A 55-period WMA can also be included for a longer-term perspective. Crossovers between these WMAs can highlight potential trend reversals or continuations, with the WMA adapting more quickly than other MAs due to its weighted calculation.
Implementing These Combinations
When applying these moving average combinations, it's crucial to consider the following:
- Market Conditions: These combinations often perform better in trending markets versus ranging markets. Moreover, shorter MAs might be more effective in capturing quick price movements during high volatility.
- Timeframes: Traders align MAs with their trading horizon. Shorter periods like the 5-period or 8-period MAs are usually used by traders focusing on brief swings, while longer periods like the 50-period MA cater to those looking at extended trends.
- Confirmation with Other Indicators: Relying solely on moving averages can lead to false signals. Traders corroborate these signals with other technical indicators, such as Bollinger Bands or the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
What Moving Averages Should You Use for Swing Trading?
There is no best moving average for swing trading. The choice of MAs ultimately depends on a trader's strategy and preferences. The combinations discussed provide a framework, but experimenting with different setups can help identify what aligns with individual trading styles and objectives.
The Bottom Line
Moving averages are powerful tools for swing trading, offering insights into trends and potential market turning points. Whatever your unique preference for different types and lengths, understanding their application can refine your strategy.
FAQ
Which Moving Average Is Good for Swing Trading?
The 20-period, 50-period, and 200-period moving averages are widely used in swing trading. However, different combinations, like the 8- and 21-period or 13- and 34-period MAs can offer equally valuable insights; it ultimately comes down to the trader’s preference.
What Is the Most Popular Moving Average to Use?
The most popular moving average depends on a trader’s trading style and goals. Shorter MAs, like the 20-day MA, are popular for quick trend identification, while longer ones, such as the 200-day MA, provide a bigger picture. Many traders combine MAs to cover different timeframes.
Is 200 EMA Good for Swing Trading?
The 200-period EMA is useful for swing traders seeking to understand long-term trends. It reacts faster than the 200-period SMA, making it suitable for traders looking to incorporate a responsive indicator in their analysis.
Which Indicator Is Most Popular for Swing Trading?
There isn’t a single best indicator for swing trading. Moving averages, RSI, MACD, and volume indicators are commonly used. Combining these can provide a more comprehensive analysis.
Which Volume Indicator Is Popular for Swing Trading?
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) are popular volume indicators for swing traders, helping assess market momentum.
Which RSI Indicator Is Popular for Swing Trading?
The standard 14-period RSI is widely used. Swing traders often adjust it to shorter periods (e.g., 7) for faster signals or longer periods (e.g., 21) for smoother trends.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The Yen’s Comeback Starts Here—and it Seems the COT Knew First1. Introduction: A Market Everyone Gave Up On
For a while, the Japanese Yen looked like a lost cause. After topping out in early 2021, Yen futures (6J1!) began an unrelenting slide, shedding value week after week like an old coat in spring. Traders stopped asking, “Where’s support?” and started asking, “How low can it go?”
The macro backdrop didn’t help. The Bank of Japan clung to ultra-loose monetary policy, even as the Fed hiked aggressively. Speculators piled on shorts. The Yen was a one-way ticket down, and no one seemed interested in punching the brakes.
But beneath that apathy, a quieter shift was underway. While price kept bleeding, trader positioning began to hint at something different—something the chart didn’t show yet. And if you were watching the Commitments of Traders (COT) report closely enough, you might’ve seen it.
2. The COT Trend That No One Was Watching
The COT report isn’t glamorous. It’s slow, lagging by a few days, and rarely makes headlines. But for those who track what the big players are doing—those large enough to be required to report their positions—it’s a treasure trove of subtle clues.
One of those clues is Total Reportable Positions. This metric tells us how active large market participants really are—regardless of whether they’re long or short. When that number is dropping, it suggests the “big dogs” are losing interest. When it starts climbing again? Someone’s gearing up to play.
From 2021 through most of 2024, Total Reportable Positions in 6J were in a steady decline—mirroring the slow death of the Yen's bullish case. But in late 2024, something changed. Using a simple linear regression channel on this COT data, a clear breakout emerged. Positioning was picking up again—for the first time in nearly three years.
And it wasn’t just a bounce. It was a structural shift.
3. Did Price Listen?
Yes—and no. Price didn't immediately explode higher. But the structure began to change. The market stopped making new lows. Weekly closes began to cluster above support. And importantly, a Zig Zag analysis started marking a pattern of higher lows—the first signs of accumulation.
Here’s where the chart really gets interesting: the timing of the COT breakout coincided almost perfectly with a key UFO support at 0.0065425—a price level that also marked the bottom in COT Traders Total Reportable Longs. This adds a powerful layer of confirmation: institutional orders weren’t just showing up in the data—they were leaving footprints on the chart.
And above? There’s a UFO resistance level at 0.0075395. If the Yen continues to climb, that could be a significant price level where early longs may choose to lighten up.
4. The Contract Behind the Story
Before we go deeper, let’s talk about what you’re actually trading when you pull the trigger on Yen Futures.
The CME Japanese Yen futures (6J) contract represents 12.5 million Japanese Yen, and each tick move—just 0.0000005 per JPY—is worth $6.25. It’s precise, it’s liquid, and for traders who like to build macro positions or take advantage of carry flows, it’s a staple.
As of May 2025, margin requirements hover around ~$3,800 (Always double-check with your broker or clearing firm—these numbers shift from time to time.)
But maybe you’re not managing seven-figure accounts. Maybe you just want to test this setup with more flexibility. That’s where the Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY) come in.
Contract size: 1/10th the size of 6J
Tick move: 0.000001 per JPY increment = $1.25
Same market structure, tighter margin requirement around ~$380 per contract
Important note: The COT report aggregates positioning across the whole futures market—it doesn’t separate out micro traders from full-size. So yes, the data still applies. And yes, it still matters.
5. Lessons from the Shift
This isn’t about hindsight bias. The value in this setup isn’t that the Yen happened to bounce—it’s how Total Reportable Positions broke trend before price did.
Here are the real takeaways:
COT data may or may not be predictive—but it is insightful. When positioning starts expanding after a long contraction, it often signals renewed interest or risk-taking. That’s tradable information.
Technical support and resistance as well as highs and lows give context. Without them, COT breakouts can feel theoretical. With them, you have real, observable UFO levels where institutions may act—and where you can plan.
6. Watchlist Insights: Where This Might Work Again
You don’t have to wait for another yen setup to apply this framework. The same structure can help you scout for early positioning shifts across the CME product universe.
Here’s a simple filter to start building your own COT watchlist:
✅ Look for markets where:
Price has been in a long, clean downtrend (or uptrend)
Total Reportable Positions are falling—but starting to reverse
A breakout occurs in positioning trend (draw a regression channel and watch for a clean violation)
A key support or resistance lines up with recent extremes in COT positioning
Whether it's crude oil, corn, or euro FX, this template gives you a framework for exploration.
🎯 Want to See More Setups Like This?
We’re just getting started. If this breakdown opened your eyes to new ways of using COT reports, UFO levels, and multi-dimensional trade setups, keep watching this space.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
April 2025 Market Crash: Causes, Impact, and Strategic ResponseApril 2025 will go down in financial history as one of the most turbulent months of the past decade. A large-scale market crash, triggered by geopolitical escalation and intensified trade tensions, revealed just how fragile the global investment landscape remains—even after a relatively stable start to the year.
What Happened?
On April 6, 2025, the U.S. administration announced sweeping tariffs of up to 145% on all Chinese imports. This decision, though preceded by months of political strain, took the markets by surprise. Panic-selling ensued almost immediately. The Dow Jones plummeted over 4,000 points within two days—the steepest decline since the COVID-era crash of 2020. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq followed suit, dropping 6–9% in a matter of hours.
Asian and European indices mirrored the collapse: Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 7.8%, and Germany’s DAX dropped by 5.4%. The synchronized reaction emphasized the ongoing interdependence of global markets, even in an era of growing protectionism.
Why It Matters
For GeldVision clients and institutional investors worldwide, such events highlight the importance of risk-managed portfolio strategies. The April crash wasn’t solely a reaction to tariffs—it was also driven by fears of a potential recession and uncertainty surrounding central bank policies.
Another destabilizing factor was the automatic response of algorithmic trading systems, which exited positions en masse as technical indicators were breached—amplifying volatility and accelerating the selloff.
How GeldVision Responded
Since early 2025, we at GeldVision have implemented a strategy of “adaptive conservatism,” gradually reducing equity exposure in client portfolios and reinforcing positions in defensive assets such as gold, investment-grade bonds, and liquid currency instruments.
During the height of the market turmoil, our team activated internal stress protocols, including temporary order freezes on automated buy-ins and direct client communications for real-time portfolio reviews. This proactive approach allowed us to minimize losses and maintain client confidence.
What’s Next?
We expect volatility to persist at least through Q3. For investors, the key is to avoid reactive decisions and maintain a long-term perspective. GeldVision will continue to expand its macroeconomic monitoring, enhance risk models, and provide clients with the tools needed to navigate uncertain markets safely.
European Stocks Rise Amid Positive NewsEuropean stock markets are experiencing a steady rise, buoyed by a series of encouraging developments that have boosted investor confidence and driven share prices higher. This wave of optimism is being fueled by both internal economic signals and an improving global environment, including stabilized interest rates and signs of a business rebound.
What's Driving the Growth?
One of the primary catalysts behind the rally is recent economic data showing a slowdown in inflation across the eurozone, alongside a revival in consumer demand. These indicators have strengthened expectations that the European Central Bank may soon pivot from a tight monetary stance to a more accommodative approach. Investors have welcomed these signals as evidence that the regional economy is adjusting well to challenging conditions and avoiding a deeper downturn.
Additionally, stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings reports have played a key role in lifting stock prices, particularly in the banking, technology, and industrial sectors. Major players such as Siemens, BNP Paribas, and SAP have posted solid gains, reflecting broader confidence in corporate resilience.
Renewed Investor Interest in Europe
Improving macroeconomic indicators are drawing renewed attention to European assets. With risks appearing more contained and equity yields remaining attractive, many investors are beginning to view the region as a compelling opportunity. Stock exchanges in Germany, France, and the Netherlands have stood out, showing consistent growth and high trading volumes.
Geopolitical factors are also contributing to the market’s upbeat tone. Gradual normalization of trade relations with key partners and the strengthening of the euro on foreign exchange markets are adding to investor enthusiasm.
What’s Next?
Analysts suggest that if current trends continue, European indices could reach new yearly highs. Key factors to watch in the near term include upcoming central bank decisions and fresh data on GDP growth and employment. Nevertheless, the present sentiment points toward confidence in the ongoing recovery.
Conclusion
The European stock market is entering a phase of stable growth, driven by favorable economic indicators, manageable inflation, and an improving business climate. Positive news continues to give investors reasons for optimism, and if momentum holds, Europe could emerge as one of the top-performing investment regions in the coming months.
Impatience Tax in Trading: The Costs of Clicking Too SoonHave you ever thought that maybe some of your losses don’t come from bad trades? Rather, they come from good trades, timed badly?
You see the setup, the signal’s almost there, the MACD is leaning in, the candle is flirting with support — and boom, you click. Early. Too early.
Price dips a bit more and then shoots upward like a rocket. Your stop gets triggered — you just paid the impatience tax.
Welcome to the place where you get taxed for being impatient — a very real, very expensive fee traders pay when their fingers move faster than their reasoning.
🤫 The Impatience Tax — A Silent Killer Dressed as Urgency
The impatience tax doesn’t appear on your statement. You won’t see it listed in your commissions, or under slippage, or labeled in red ink like a realized loss. But rest assured, it’s there — nibbling away at your P&L every time you front-run your own strategy.
And the worst part? It feels productive. You’re taking initiative, showing conviction, being bold. Except what you're really doing is lighting good setups on fire because you couldn’t wait for one more candle to close.
🧬 The Anatomy of an Early Click
Here’s how it usually goes:
You spot a setup.
You get excited.
You skip the checklist.
You enter on the 3rd candle instead of the 5th.
The market fakes out.
You get stopped out.
The market then does exactly what you expected — without you.
Every trader has lived this story. And it hurts more than a loss from a bad trade. Because this wasn’t a bad idea. It was a good idea butchered by bad timing.
🤝 Impatience Loves Company (And Volatility)
Impatience tends to thrive in fast markets. When the price is moving, you feel like you need to act. You notice some breaking news that moves markets, charts start to jiggle and tickers flash — suddenly your FOMO glands kick in.
You’re not waiting for confirmation. You’re reacting — to price, to emotion, to fear of missing out.
It’s not just beginners either. Even seasoned traders occasionally get sucked in. Why? Because the brain is wired to avoid missing opportunities more than it’s wired to avoid losses. We want in. Now. Before it's “too late.”
But here’s a pro secret: the markets tend to always give second chances. You just have to be around to take them.
⏰ Why the Best Traders Wait
Let’s talk about patience. Not the zen-monk, meditate-in-a-cave-for-years kind. The market kind.
The kind that says: “Nope, not yet.”
The kind that closes the platform until the London session starts.
The kind that lets a trade go because it didn’t meet all the criteria — even if it was close.
Top traders aren’t paid for activity. They’re paid for precision. The entry is 90% of the battle. If you win there, the rest is just management.
🧐 How to Identify an Impatience Habit
Want to know if you’re paying the impatience tax regularly? Try this:
Look at your last 10 triggered stop loss orders: How many were within a few ticks of reversal?
Count your trades per day: Are you averaging more than your strategy demands?
Review your entry notes: Did you say things like “close enough” or “looks good”?
If the answer is yes, you’re a tax-paying member of the Impatience Society.
👷♂️ Build a Buffer: Taming the Trigger Finger
So how do you stop paying the Impatience Tax?
Start with structure:
Use time-based confirmations. Wait for the candle to close. A candle halfway formed is a lie detector test mid-question.
Have a rule-based checklist. If a trade doesn’t meet every item, you don’t take it. No exceptions.
Use alerts , not entries. Let the price come to you. Your job is to hunt, not chase.
Trade fewer setups, better. Less is more when each trade has meaning and clarity.
And when in doubt? Wait. The worst that happens is you miss one trade. The best that happens is you finally stop losing money edge by edge.
💵 Impatience Is Expensive. Patience Is Profitable.
The market is designed to reward discipline, not urgency. Speed might help you scalp news reactions, but even that requires planned execution. Unchecked impatience is just impulse with a brokerage account.
It's important to always remember that you’re not trying to win this trade. You’re trying to win this game for the long run.
And winning the game means surviving long enough to let your edge play out — with patience, not panic.
💎 Final Thoughts: Don’t Confuse Action with Progress
The financial markets are a cruel place for dopamine seekers. They offer constant motion, flashing lights, and infinite temptation to click before thinking.
But progress isn’t about how many trades you take — it’s about how many good ones you wait for.
So next time your mouse finger twitches, ask yourself: Is this the plan? Or is this impatience disguised as opportunity seeking instant gratification?
Because every early click is a donation to someone else’s P&L.
👉 Your turn : What’s your best (or worst) story of jumping the gun? How have you built patience into your process — or are you still wrestling with the trigger? Let us know in the comments!
Why Gold Is Pulling Back Now – May 2025 Update⚡️After surging above $3,500/oz in late April, gold has since declined over 8%, recently breaking below key levels and now trading near $3,210. The retracement reflects fading panic buying and growing attention to fundamental drivers: U.S. monetary policy, the strong dollar, easing geopolitical risks, and completed trade agreements. Here’s a breakdown of the leading catalysts and their current impact (ranked 0–10).
1. Fed “Higher for Longer” Bias Strength: 9/10 The Fed kept interest rates at 4.25–4.50% at its June policy meeting and reiterated its cautious stance. The absence of cuts combined with persistent inflation pressure is lifting real yields and undercutting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
2. U.S. Dollar Resurgence Strength: 8/10The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed above 101 as investors digest the Fed’s hawkish tone. A stronger dollar reduces global gold demand, especially from non-USD buyers.
3. U.S.–China Trade Agreement Reached in Switzerland Strength: 7.5/10 A formal trade deal was announced in Geneva in May, easing longstanding tariff tensions. While specific tariff rollback details are pending, markets welcomed the de-escalation, pushing investors away from gold and into risk assets.
4. U.S.–U.K. Trade Deal Signed Strength: 7/10 The U.S. and U.K. finalized a bilateral trade agreement in early May, boosting global sentiment and further reducing the geopolitical premium priced into gold.
5. India–Pakistan Border De-escalation Strength: 6.5/10 After brief clashes in Kashmir in mid-May, both sides have since released statements of restraint. The calm has helped cap gold’s safe-haven bids.
6. Iran–U.S. Nuclear Talks Update Strength: 6/10 Talks resumed in Vienna in May with cautious optimism. While no concrete deal has been signed, progress and diplomatic language from both sides have eased fears of escalation.
7. Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Developments Strength: 5.5/10 Localized ceasefires in eastern Ukraine, brokered by Turkey and the UN, have lowered near-term geopolitical risk. However, skepticism remains around long-term stability.
8. ETF Inflows & Institutional Demand Strength: 5/10 ETF inflows slowed in May (up just 48.2 tonnes), reflecting waning retail momentum. Still, central bank buying—especially from China—offers a medium-term cushion.
Catalyst Strength Rankings (May 2025)
🔸Fed “higher for longer” bias 9
🔸U.S. dollar rebound 8
🔸U.S.–China trade agreement 5.5
🔸U.S.–U.K. trade deal signed 5
🔸India–Pakistan border easing 6.5
🔸Iran–U.S. nuclear diplomacy 6
🔸Russia–Ukraine ceasefire 5.5
🔸Global gold ETF & central-bank inflows 5
Where Next for Gold?
⚡️Current price: ~$3,210/oz
📉Recent support levels broken: $3,300 and $3,250
🎯Next technical floor: $3,150/oz
✨Upside triggers: Renewed dollar weakness, inflation surprise, or geopolitical flare-up
Gold’s recent drop reflects the market's rotation out of fear-driven trades into yield-bearing and risk assets. While the Fed and the dollar remain dominant forces, any shock—whether geopolitical or inflationary—could quickly reignite interest in gold as a hedge.
Golden Rejection Candle Strategy–Catch Explosive Intraday Moves!Hello Trader!
Are you tired of buying options and watching premiums die slowly?
Or chasing breakouts that reverse the moment you enter?
Here’s your solution – the Golden Rejection Candle Strategy , designed especially for option buyers who want timed entries, fast momentum, and defined risk .
What is a Golden Rejection Candle?
A special candlestick that forms when price hits a strong level (like VWAP, trendline, or demand/supply zone) and gets instantly rejected.
It leaves behind a long wick (shadow), showing that buyers or sellers stepped in with force .
This candle often marks the start of a sharp intraday reversal .
It's not just a random wick — it’s a smart money footprint .
Live Chart Example – Nifty Spot vs Option Premium (23950 CE)
Date: 9th May 2025
Timeframe: 1 min (Spot), 1 min (Options)
Spot Chart Setup: Nifty approached a marked green support zone and created a strong wick rejection with a small body candle — classic sign of buyers defending the level.
Confirmation Candle: The next candle broke above the rejection candle’s high, confirming the reversal setup.
Premium Reaction: On the 1-min ATM Option chart (23950 CE), premiums jumped from 270 to 344 – a clean 26% gain within few minutes.
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Entry was at breakout, SL just below rejection wick, and target hit in a single momentum burst — the kind of move option buyers live for.
How to Trade It as an Option Buyer
Choose the Right Strike: Use ATM or slightly ITM options to get faster movement when price reverses.
Entry Strategy: Wait for the next candle to break the rejection candle’s high/low. No break = No trade.
SL Placement: Keep it just beyond the wick. Small loss if wrong, big reward if right.
Exit Plan: Aim for intraday resistance/support or spike-based exits — option premiums often give quick moves post-rejection.
What NOT to Do:
Don’t enter on the rejection candle itself — wait for confirmation.
Avoid trading this pattern in low volume or middle of the range.
Don’t hold blindly — if premium spikes, take the money and run!
Rahul’s Tip:
“Sudden reversals are where option buyers make money — not slow trends. The rejection candle shows intent. The breakout shows confirmation. Combine both.”
Conclusion:
The Golden Rejection Candle Strategy gives you an edge that most random trades lack — timing, context, and structure.
If you're an option buyer, this can be your go-to setup to avoid traps and enter only when smart money steps in.
No more guessing. No more fear.
Just clean, price-action-based entries that make sense.
👇 Have you ever used rejection-based setups? Drop your favorite trade below! Let’s learn together.
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Learn the 4 Best Strategies to Maximize Your Profits in Trading
In the today's article, we will discuss 4 classic yet profitable forex and gold trading strategies.
1️⃣Pullback Trading
Pullback trading is a trend-following strategy where you open the positions after pullbacks.
If the market is trading in a bullish trend, your goal as a pullback trader is to wait for a completion of a bullish impulse and then let the market correct itself. Your entry should be the assumed completion point of a correctional movement. You expect a trend-following movement from there.
In a bearish trend, you wait for a completion of the bearish impulse, let the market retrace, and you look for short-entry after a completion of the retracement leg.
Here is the example of pullback trading.
On the left chart, we see the market that is trading in a bearish trend.
A pullback trader would short the market upon completion of the correctional moves.
On the right chart, I underlined the buy entry points of a pullback trader.
That strategy is considered to be one of the simplest and profitable and appropriate for newbie traders.
2️⃣Breakout Trading
Breakout trading implies buying or selling the breakout of a horizontal structure or a trend line.
If the price breaks a key support, it signifies a strong bearish pressure.
Such a violation will trigger a bearish continuation with a high probability.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of a key resistance is a sign of strength of the buyers and indicates a highly probable bullish continuation.
Take a look, how the price broke a key daily resistance on a daily time frame. After a breakout, the market retested the broken structure that turned into a support. A strong bullish rally initiated from that.
With the breakout trading, the best entries are always on a retest of a broken structure.
3️⃣Range Trading
Range trading signifies trading the market that is consolidating .
Most of the time, the market consolidates within the horizontal ranges.
The boundaries of the range may provide safe points to buy and sell the market from.
The upper boundary of the range is usually a strong resistance and one may look for shorting opportunities from there,
while the lower boundary of the range is a safe place to buy the market from.
EURCAD pair is trading within a horizontal range on a daily.
The support of the range is a safe zone to buy the market from.
A bullish movement is anticipated to the resistance of the range from there.
Taking into considerations, that the financial instruments may consolidate for days, weeks and even months, range trading may provide substantial gains.
4️⃣Counter Trend Trading
Counter trend trading signifies trading against the trend.
No matter how strong is the trend, the markets always trade in zig-zags. After impulses follow the corrections , and after the corrections follow the impulses.
Counter trend traders looks for a completion of the bullish impulses in a bullish trend to short the market, and for a completion of bearish impulses in a downtrend to buy it.
Here is the example of a counter trend trade.
EURJPY is trading in a bullish trend. However, the last 3 bearish moves initiated from a rising trend line. For a trader, shorting the trend line was a perfect entry to catch a bearish move.
Such trading strategy is considered to be one of the most complicated , because one goes against the crowd and overall sentiment.
With the experience, traders may combine these strategies.
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