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Trend Analysis

Problems of Technical AnalysisProblems of Technical Analysis Trading is a complex endeavour that involves many factors. The ability to analyse markets is something that allows traders to overcome trading difficulties. Technical analysis is widely used by traders to make informed decisions about the price movements of various assets, including stocks, currency pairs, and cryptocurrencies*. Technical analysis and trading are inextricably linked, but while this method provides valuable insights, it also comes with a set of challenges. This FXOpen article discusses the challenges associated with technical analysis and suggests how traders can effectively overcome these challenges. Three Main Assumptions of Technical Analysis Technical analysis is based on the Dow Theory, which includes three basic principles and assumptions, namely: 1. The market discounts everything. Technical analysis assumes that everything that happens and can affect the market is reflected in its price. This means that the price will tell you everything you need to know. 2. Prices move in trends. According to technical analysts, even when the market is not moving in a uniform manner, prices will show trends, and this is independent of the time frame in question. 3. History tends to repeat itself. Technical traders try to identify recurring patterns in price because they have made the assumption that what has happened before in its formation is likely to happen again. Although technical analysis follows predetermined rules and principles, the interpretation of the results is not always right. Technical analysis is limited to the study of market trends and does not delve deeply into an instrument or industry to understand how it works. Critics of technical analysis argue that these assumptions may not be accurate. Below, you will learn more about the complexities of the analysis. Subjectivity in Analysis One of the main technical analysis problems is its inherent subjectivity. Traders often rely on various tools and indicators, such as moving averages, MACD, and Fibonacci retracements, to interpret price charts. The issue arises when traders misread patterns or interpret these tools incorrectly, leading to inconsistent results and trading decisions. To mitigate this challenge, traders typically establish clear and objective criteria for their analyses. This includes identifying specific entry and exit points based on predetermined trading rules. In addition, referring to experienced traders or using algorithmic trading strategies can help reduce the impact of subjectivity. Data Quality and Reliability Forex, stock, and crypto* markets are known for their high volatility, which can result in irregular price movements and gaps in historical data. Traders often rely on past price movements to make predictions about future developments. When the historical data is incomplete or inaccurate, practical technical analysis becomes less effective. Traders should be cautious about data quality, ensuring that they have access to reliable sources. The use of multiple data sources and cross-referencing will help identify and eliminate inconsistencies. In addition, the limitations of historical data should be recognised and not relied upon exclusively. Over-Reliance on Indicators Many traders become over-dependent on technical indicators, believing they hold the key to successful trading. Of course, technical analysis learning is important, and indicators are valuable tools, but relying solely on them can lead to trading errors. The problem is exacerbated when traders use too many indicators simultaneously, leading to information overload and conflicting signals. The possible response to this challenge is to select a few key indicators that align with your trading strategy and combine their signals with other analysis tools, including price action and fundamental events. Over time, traders develop the ability to interpret price action without relying only on indicators. This is a skill that can provide a more holistic view of the market. Limited Predictive Power Technical analysis primarily focuses on historical price data and patterns to predict future price movements. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that past performance is not always indicative of future results. The markets are influenced by a wide range of factors, including economic data releases, geopolitical events, and central bank policies, which can override technical signals. To address this issue, traders should combine exploring technical analysis graphs with evaluating fundamental factors. Considering both technical and fundamental factors helps traders make more informed trading decisions and reduce the risk of being blindsided by unexpected market events. Traders need to stay informed and adaptive, even if they base their strategies on chart analysis. Emotional Trading Emotions play a significant role in trading, and technical analysis can sometimes exacerbate emotional decision-making. For example, if emotions overwhelm you during technical forex analysis, it may lead to mismanagement of trades and losses. Those who become too emotionally attached to their technical analysis may hesitate to cut their losses or take profits. System hopping is another common problem that stems from excessive impulsiveness. Traders may switch from one system or strategy to another in search of quick profits. However, this can result in confusion and inconsistency. Sticking to a trading plan and avoiding impulsive decisions can help mitigate emotional challenges. To overcome stress and prevent emotional decision-making, traders adopt disciplined risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and take-profit levels in advance. Traders calculate their risk-reward ratio to determine how much loss they can bear for the reward they are expecting. Time-Consuming Process Technical analysis can be time-consuming, especially for traders who engage in short-term trading strategies. Analysing charts, identifying patterns, and monitoring technical indicators in technical analysis is a demanding task. It could be difficult for traders with limited time to spare. The first method is to use clear and reliable trading tools with user-friendly UI. Consider the TickTrader trading platform, where you can find both simple and advanced tools and trade various assets. Another solution is to consider longer timeframes, as they require less frequent monitoring. Additionally, using automated trading systems helps traders save time while still benefiting from technical analysis insights. Final Thoughts Technical analysis is an invaluable tool in the trader’s arsenal, providing a structured approach to analysing price movements. However, it’s essential to be aware of the challenges associated with this method and take proactive steps to address them. Minimising subjectivity, using reliable data, avoiding over-reliance on indicators, and managing emotions help traders perform better in the market. Now that you know some valuable insights about trading, you can open an FXOpen account and start your journey with us. *At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
2
10 Tips for All TradersIt’s always wise to revisit the basics of markets. The foundation of successful trading is built around continuous education, disciplined practice, and a willingness to learn. Here are 10 tips for all traders: 1. Education First: Educate yourself thoroughly in the market before you begin. Some of the smartest people on the planet trade daily, and before you go up against them, open a demo account to test your skills. 2. Create and Follow a Plan: Develop a trading plan with clear profit goals, risk tolerance, and a long-term view. Then, when you’re ready, stick to it for disciplined trading. 3. Find Your Strategy: Everyone has different goals in the markets and that means everyone will have a different approach to trading. It takes time, but if you stick with it, you will find it. 4. Set Your Risk Appetite: Define how much you are willing to risk per trade, and never trade with more than you can afford to lose. 5. Use Stop and Limit Orders: Manage risk and help protect profits with stop and limit orders, including trailing stops to secure gains as the market moves. 6. Control Your Emotions: Avoid "revenge trading" and stick to your plan. Do not let emotions drive your decisions, especially after a loss. 7. Maintain Consistency: Focus on consistent, disciplined trading. Stick to your plan with patience and maintain a positive edge. 8. Learn to Analyze Markets: Use both fundamental news and technical analysis tools to help identify trading opportunities and forecast market movements. 9. Stay Informed: Continuously update your knowledge of market trends and news to make informed trading decisions. 10. Review and Adjust: Regularly evaluate your trading plan and performance, adjusting as necessary to stay aligned with your goals. We hope you enjoyed these 10 tips and be sure to follow us for more content like this. We post daily charts here and now, have over 83,000 connected traders ) and followers. We look forward to sharing our insights with everyone!
Education
by FOREXcom
1
Why Interest Rates Matter for Forex TradersWhy Interest Rates Matter for Forex Traders Delve into the intricate world of forex, where interest rates stand as towering beacons guiding currency movements and trader strategies. From the fundamentals of central bank operations to the subtle nuances of the carry trade, uncover how they shape the global financial tapestry, dictating economic outcomes and trader fortunes. Understanding Interest Rates An interest rate is the cost of borrowing money or the return earned from lending, expressed as a percentage. Two primary types dominate the discourse: Central Bank Interest Rates Set by monetary authorities like the Federal Reserve, these rates often serve as the benchmark for short-term lending between banks. For instance, the federal funds rate in the US dictates interbank loans overnight, influencing liquidity and, by extension, currency value. Market Interest Rates Think LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) – the rate at which banks lend to each other in the international interbank market. It, influenced by supply and demand dynamics, often fluctuates daily, making it a vital metric for traders who delve into currency swaps or forward rate agreements. In trading currency pairs, interest rates aren't mere numbers – they're indicators dictating strength, investment flows, and overall economic health. Interest Rates as Market Drivers In forex, interest rates emerge as crucial influencers. Acting as catalysts, they shape currency values, guide investment flows, and mould strategies traders employ. For those looking to take advantage of these forces, using a platform like FXOpen's TickTrader offers a competitive edge, ensuring traders have access to real-time data and advanced trading tools. Decoding Interest Rates in Forex Market Trends Interest rates wield enormous power in the global financial theatre, particularly in the dynamics of forex trading. One of the clearest relationships observed is between high interest rates and currencies. Elevated rates act as a magnet for foreign capital since investors constantly scout for better returns. This inflow requires the purchase of the country's currency, leading to its appreciation. Carry Trade and Interest Dynamics One such tactic to capitalise on rate disparities is the carry trade. Traders borrow funds in a currency with low rates and invest it in a currency yielding higher returns. The difference or the "carry" becomes their profit. The symbiotic relationship between interest rates and forex is deeply evident here. A sound grasp of the nuances of this strategy can lead to lucrative opportunities for seasoned traders. Interest Differentials: The Subtle Nuances Even minor variations in rates across nations can offer significant opportunities. These differentials between currency pairs influence their relative strengths. For instance, if Country A starts offering higher interest rates than Country B, it could lead to an appreciation of Country A's currency, interest rates playing the central role. Savvy traders continually analyse these differentials, strategising their trades to capitalise on the anticipated market movements. Central Banks and Monetary Policy Central banks hold a significant position in steering a nation's economic direction. One of their critical levers is the setting of interest rates. They directly impact the money supply and, subsequently, inflation levels. When inflation surges beyond targeted levels, central banks may raise rates to rein it in, as this will typically reduce consumer borrowing and spending. Conversely, when economies face downturns, they might reduce them, promoting borrowing and investment and aiming to boost economic activity. Thus, the delicate balance between inflation rates and interest rates is a testament to the central authorities’ pivotal role in economic stability. Monetary Policy Tools: Shaping the Financial Landscape Central banks use a variety of tools to implement their monetary policies: Open Market Operations By buying or selling government securities, these banks control the money circulating in the economy. Selling securities pulls money out of the market, leading to higher interest rates. Conversely, purchasing them injects money, pushing rates down. Reserve Requirements By altering the amount of money banks need to hold in reserve, central banks can influence the amount available for loans. A higher reserve means fewer loans, resulting in higher rates and vice versa. Forward Guidance and Quantitative Easing These are more nuanced tools. Forward guidance involves bank governors communicating their future plans, providing the market with a sense of direction. Quantitative easing, on the other hand, involves large-scale asset purchases to increase money supply and lower interest rates. Economic Indicators and Their Correlation with Interest Rates Economic indicators provide valuable insights into a country's financial health, and their fluctuations often influence monetary policy decisions. For instance, when inflation surpasses target levels, central banks might consider hiking them to temper the rising prices, leading to an interplay between foreign exchange and interest rates. A strong GDP growth signals a thriving economy, which might attract foreign investments. These inflows usually put upward pressure on the domestic currency. However, if the bank responds by raising rates, this may further amplify its strength. Thus, the effect of increasing interest rates on currency is often profound, making it a focal point for forex traders. Similarly, employment metrics, consumer sentiment, and manufacturing output are all vital indicators that economists monitor. Changes in these metrics might hint at upcoming monetary policy adjustments. Lastly, there are foreign currency loans and interest rates. When global rates are low, corporations might engage in foreign currency loans, seeking cheaper financing options. However, shifts in these rates can impact the cost of servicing these loans, leading to potential forex market volatility. The Bottom Line The dance between forex and interest rates is both complex and fascinating. As we've seen, interest rate trading offers profound insights and opportunities for those in the foreign exchange arena. For those eager to navigate these waters and capitalise on the intricate interplay of rates and currencies, opening an FXOpen account can be the gateway to informed, strategic trading in this dynamic market. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Editors' picks
Education
by FXOpen
6
Reverse Bearish Divergence(I made a mistake, posted the wrong chart for the Reverse BULLISH Divergence, it was a reverse BEARISH one). Sorry :) Reverse Bearish Divergence , often referred to simply as "bearish divergence," occurs in technical analysis when the price of an asset makes higher lows while an oscillator (such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic, or MACD) makes lower lows. This situation suggests that a reversal of a bigger trend can happen soon.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by orbborisson
Types of Entry Models in SMC ConceptsIn Smart Money Concepts (SMC) trading, there are different types of entry models that traders use to enter the market. These include aggressive entry, actual entry, and order flow entry models. Here’s a simple explanation of each: 1. Aggressive Entry Model (15m): @Manipulation Entry Criteria: During Liquidity (LQ) Sweeps at Killzones + Stack Entries at Lower Time Frame (LTF, 1m) Description: Traders enter trades during significant liquidity sweeps, particularly in key market zones known as killzones (high-activity periods). They stack their entries by analyzing the 1-minute chart to find optimal entry points. This approach aims to catch early moves by entering immediately after liquidity has been swept, indicating potential reversals or strong market moves. Order Type: Market Order(post candle confirmation) Traders execute a market order as soon as their entry criteria are met on the 1-minute chart, entering the trade immediately at the current market price. Time Frame: 1 minute (LTF) 2. Actual Entry Model (15m): Post Manipulation Entry Criteria: At Valid Supply or Demand or Flip Zones Description: Traders enter trades at well-defined supply and demand zones or flip zones (areas where the market changes from supply to demand or vice versa). They wait for the price to reach these significant zones on the 15-minute chart, providing a more confirmed entry point that aligns with market structure and potential reversals. Order Type: Limit Order Traders place a limit order on the 1-minute chart at a specific price level they believe the market will reach, ensuring a better entry price. Time Frame: 1 minute (LTF) 3. Order Flow Entry Model (15m): @Distribution Entry Criteria: At Unmitigated Order Flow Description: Traders look for areas of unmitigated order flow on the 15-minute chart. Unmitigated order flow refers to price levels where significant orders have not yet been fully absorbed by the market, indicating potential areas of strong buying or selling pressure. Traders place their entries at these levels, often waiting for a candle confirmation to ensure the validity of the order flow analysis. Order Type: Limit Order (post candle confirmation) Traders wait for a candle confirmation on the 1-minute chart before placing a limit order. They analyze the order flow and wait for a confirming candle that aligns with their analysis before setting a limit order to enter the trade. Time Frame: 1 minute (LTF)
Education
by arjTradingofficial
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave Theory, Part 2Hello traders. In this article, we dive deeper into another detailed way of seeing Bitcoin's potential end-of-cycle pattern. This is the 2nd part to the previous post that discusses Bitcoin's cycle using the Elliott Wave Theory - a comprehensive and subjective theory. Here, we will be exploring an alternative scenario that builds on our previous concept of Bitcoin fractals since its inception in 2009. By addressing some of the subjectivity in the wave theory and leveraging market psychology and algorithmic fractals, this post is aimed to provide another organized and insightful look at the structure of Bitcoin's price movements.
If you are interested in seeing the first scenario, here is a link for your convenience: For this alternative scenario, as mentioned above, it addresses some of the subjectivity that arises from the Elliott Wave Theory, specifically the observation of multiple 1-2 scenarios presented in our previous idea. Although the idea was supported by evidence from market psychology and algorithmic fractals, the problem arises by having the possibility of infinite 1-2 nested structures that works upon extending each internal wave - which is a pretty rare observation in any markets; however, Bitcoin has been able to withstand year by year and work on a pretty timely schedule. Based on the expectations, we used that observation to create the scenario of nested 1-2's. Nevertheless, due to its possible subjective count, this idea focuses more on the structural integrity of the basic 5-wave pattern and being able to fit the whole price action from inception as a 5-wave pattern.
 Simply put, this thesis aims to create a more organized structure. As many are still eager to determine how far Bitcoin might correct after this bull run ends, I hope this idea can also give you confidence to help build your own thesis.
 There is one thing that is for sure, however: the evidence portrayed from both of these scenarios strongly suggests that we will see higher levels before lower levels, though no theory can be 100% accurate, we could technically see a reversal even now. But my duty is to make sure to narrow down the scenarios as best as I can.
 For this specific idea, we have structured this whole move up as 5 waves since inception, sticking as closely as possible to the basic Elliott Wave model of the 5-wave impulse. To achieve this, we made some simple adjustments from the first thesis in the previous post.

The challenge for many arises when trying to fit a wave 3 that must be the longest or second longest wave compared to waves 1 and 5. In this chart, since primary wave 1 in yellow is the longest, wave 5 must be technically shorter than wave 3, which is a strict rule and must be obeyed.
 To accomplish this, we can use the 2017-2020 price action as a range initself for wave 4. Previously, we considered the pandemic crash as a technical bottom. If we use that as a sideways range, the only viable sideways patterns are triangles and flats (as we have exhausted the zigzag family correction patterns for wave 4 already). For more details on these patterns, please refer to the previous guide on triangle and flat patterns in my Elliott Wave Theory guide on my main page. By using the 2017-2020 range as a triangle, our subwave E has resulted in an extremely short subwave, known as a failure or truncation. After breaking out of the triangle, the next step is to figure out on how to form wave 5, which is the final part of the 5-wave motive impulse.
 Currently, the only way we can see wave 5 concluding is through a possible diagonal given the current data. Why? We would typically expect a basic 5-wave move for wave 5, but since wave 5 has to be short and wave 1 was extended, we do not expect the last primary wave 5 in yellow to be extended. Thus, the only remaining option is a possible diagonal pattern to complete wave 5, since we have also assumed it will be short due to wave 1 already being the longest wave and wave 3 being the 2nd longest wave.

This Ending Diagonal, which consists of 5 waves (unlike a Leading Diagonal, which appears in waves 1 or A), they are only observed in wave 5s or wave Cs.
 To construct our Ending Diagonal, the five subwaves must be zigzags (simple ABCs) or complex zigzags (WXYs). We are currently observing a mix of these, which is normal in diagonals: 
 * Subwave (1): ABC. Observed as a long wave A and short wave C. This can be debated, but longer wave As compared to wave Cs are not uncommon. * Subwave (2): WXY. A WXYXZ could fit as well like we observed in our previous post, but that deviates significantly from the traditional structure. A WXY is the next best alternative, and even that can be subjective as we typically observe simple ZigZags (ABCs) within diagonals. * Subwave (3): Currently being created. With the available data, it could be an ABC, though it may become more complex going forward. * Subwave (4) / (5) : To be determined. Must belong to the zigzag family.

 As we are still working on subwave (3) within the ending diagonal, the interest level for a pullback remains the same as in our previous idea, THAT IS THE KEY. This significant pullback could validate this idea, so we will monitor it up to that point.
 This larger picture presents a wide range between subwaves 4 and 5, similar to waves 1 and 2.
 Once subwaves 4 and 5 are created, it will technically terminate the larger degree wave 5 of the entire 5-wave impulse cycle. After termination, a significant downside correction is possible, potentially reaching levels as low as $3,000. Alternatively, we also have a completely different count where this cycle wave 1-2 may be already in play, and it can be achieved by using a larger flat idea that may also help with separation and further deepend subjectivity. Here is that approach: In conclusion, while the evidence strongly suggests that Bitcoin will reach higher levels before any significant correction, it is crucial to remain adaptable as market conditions evolve. The analysis presented here offers merely a potential roadmap. No theory can predict market movements with absolute certainty. By staying informed and considering multiple scenarios, investors can better navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market. I invite EVERYONE to share your thoughts and engage with this post in the comments below.
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
109
Reverse bullish divergence on BTCUSDReverse bullish divergence detected. Reverse Bullish Divergence, often referred to simply as "bullish divergence," occurs in technical analysis when the price of an asset makes lower lows while an oscillator (such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic, or MACD) makes higher lows. This situation suggests that despite the asset's declining price trend, the momentum or underlying strength is increasing, indicating that the selling pressure may be easing and a potential reversal to the upside could occur. Traders often look for this pattern as a signal to consider entering a long position, as it may indicate that a bottom is forming and that a bullish trend may follow. It's important to combine this signal with other technical indicators and analysis to confirm the potential reversal and to manage risk appropriately.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by orbborisson
Occam's RazorEverything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler. That is a famous quote, sometimes written under "inspirational photos" of influencers on social media. It is attributed to Albert Einstein, he however expressed something more rough than that. Einstein quoted: It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience. Even though he was not a philosopher, he adopted what William of Ockham proposed hundreds of years ago. He believed that an explanation must come from the simplest set of elements. Occam's Razor is what defeats "Last Thursdayism" aka "the Omphalos hypothesis". Simplicity is stronger than complexity. But enough of history and philosophy, I hear you say. This is an investment platform after all, we are tired of reading about theories. The thing is, if you don't think before you buy, you end up in a loophole. In an investment strategy that has no way in, and no way out. From my mere two years of stock market analysis, I have one rough quote for your social media pics: Clear your mind. Choose wisely your favorite ship, and pick your favorite destination. Now sit back and relax. The time will come when the wind blows fair to your ways. It is not exactly doric, but it will do for now. So basically, there are two things you must decide and believe in. The type and the timing of investment. Contrary to what some may say to you, you actually need both. If you aren't selective of your investment, then you better hope to break-even to inflation. If you don't let the times ripe, then you don't do anything more, or less than a hodler. (or similarly an inflation mitigator) The point I am trying to make is simple. That investing must be simple... ...and charting must be simple. Hence Renko charts! Some time ago, I discovered the interesting properties of these charts. They "normalize" growth, from violent spikes to perfect pyramid fractals. To an untrained investor, this chart is an oversimplification. How on earth Minecraft is better than reality? Answer: Legibility and Indicators Legibility: The violent nature of stocks is tamed from this chart type. This was the original intention of the Japanese inventors. Indicators: The unknown charisma of these charts is their magic behavior with indicators. They give powerful new ways to analyze prices. So how and why do Renko charts surpass candlestick charts? In classic (timed) charts like candle, the baseline is time. Rapid price breakouts and deadly black swans may come incredibly quick. Since most indicators depend on some amount of lookback (the length of a Moving Average for example), they under-weigh rapid events like black swans, and over-weigh slow, and perhaps, insignificant price movements. In timeless charts like Renko, no detail is hidden. The appropriate amount of importance is shown to each point of price history. With candles, momentum is time-based. With cubes, momentum is price-based. Renko charts, even though are a big simplification, provide an entirely new visualization of charts, and all of that without exotic coding. Your indicators still work. DXY shows subtle but important differences in bull-market analysis. More advanced indicators show this even clearer. As a theoretical experiment, a trader waited for two candles of confirmation after KST broke down. NVDA paired with Renko reveals its true face. Divergences hidden in plain sight. And all of that with the most rudimentary of tools, MACD. The point Renko tries to make is simple. A stable growth is a decisive growth. Renko punishes stocks that begin to exhibit backtests / retreats in price. By simplifying technical analysis and price data, the deep ocean becomes a child's pool. Accessible by everyone. The point Grigori try to make is simple. That trading should not be considered to be astrophysics, because it clearly is not astrophysics. We are not Einsteins (some may be), but the majority are not (including me). We, as humans, need clear and simple arguments and data in order to make robust conclusions. Final thought: The investor's mind must keep clear of chaotic charts and concentrate on picking the right ship, at the right time. Select beforehand your ultimate target. The earth is round. If you keep sailing without stopping, the time will certainly come, when you will reach ground-zero. Tread lightly, for this is simple ground. Father Grigori. P.S. I will keep this idea updated with any interesting Renko vs Candle charts I discover.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by akikostas
3
Understanding RSI Divergence: A Practical Approach Today, we're examining the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the EUR/USD daily chart, focusing on the concepts of overbought and oversold conditions. I prefer to use divergence instead of absolute levels to determine overbought and oversold conditions. What is divergence? It occurs when the market reaches a new high, but the indicator does not, making a lower high instead. This suggests that the market is losing upward momentum. In a downtrend, the opposite is true. If the market price hits a new low, but the indicator doesn't, it indicates a loss of downward momentum. Let's look at some examples on the EUR/USD: 1. September 2023: The market hit a low of 1.0448, but the RSI did not reach a new low, signaling a loss of downward momentum. This suggested at least a correction, though in this case, the market actually reversed. 2. November 2023: The market reached a new high of 1.0960, but the RSI did not make a new high, showing a divergence. The RSI was at the same level as previous highs, indicating a loss of upward momentum. 3. December 2023: The market hit a high of 1.1139, but the oscillator didn't reach a new high, indicating a significant loss of upward momentum. Textbooks often state that RSI levels above 70 are overbought and levels below 30 are oversold. However, in my 30 years as a technical analyst, I've found this isn't always accurate. Instead, you should determine overbought and oversold levels specific to the instrument you're analyzing. For EUR/USD, connecting peaks and troughs on the RSI chart shows that overbought levels are closer to 78, and oversold levels are nearer to 17, which are quite different from the standard 30/70 levels. In summary, I find that looking for divergence works much better than relying on the absolute value of the RSI indicator. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Education
by The_STA
Options Blueprint Series: Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro FuturesIntroduction Euro FX EUR/USD Futures are a key instrument in the futures market, allowing traders to speculate on the future value of the Euro against the US Dollar. Trading Euro FX EUR/USD Futures provides exposure to the currency markets, enabling traders to hedge risk or capitalize on market movements. Key Contract Specifications: Contract Size: 125,000€ Tick Size: 0.00005 Tick Value: $6.25 Margin Requirements: Approximately $2,100 (varies by broker and market conditions and changes through time) These contract specs are crucial for understanding the potential profit and loss scenarios when trading Euro Futures. The tick size and value help determine the smallest price movement and its monetary impact, while the margins indicate the amount of capital required to initiate a position. Strategy Explanation The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is an advanced options strategy designed to profit from a bearish market outlook. This strategy involves buying and selling put options with different expiration dates and strike prices, creating a diagonal spread. Bear Put Diagonal Fly Breakdown: Buy 1 Put (longer-term expiration): This long put provides downside protection over a longer period, benefiting from a significant decline in the underlying asset. Sell 1 Put (intermediate-term expiration): This short put helps to offset the cost of the long put, generating premium income and partially financing the trade. Buy 1 Put (shorter-term expiration): This additional long put offers further downside protection, particularly for a shorter duration, enhancing the overall bearish exposure. Purpose of the Strategy: The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is structured to take advantage of a declining market with specific price movements over different time frames. The staggered expiration dates allow the trader to benefit from time decay and volatility changes. Advantages: Cost Reduction: The premium received from selling the put helps to reduce the overall cost. Enhanced Bearish Exposure: The additional shorter-term put provides extra exposure. Flexibility: The strategy can be adjusted or rolled over as market conditions change. Potential Risks: Time Decay: If the market does not move as expected, the long puts may lose value due to time decay. Volatility Risk: Changes in market volatility can impact the value of the options. Application on Euro Futures To apply the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy on Euro Futures, careful selection of strike prices and expiration dates is crucial. This strategy involves three options positions with different expirations to optimize the potential profit from a bearish market move. Selecting Strike Prices and Expiration Dates: Long Put (longer term): Choose a strike price above the current market price of Euro Futures to benefit from a significant decline. Short Put (intermediate term): Select a strike price closer to the market price to maximize premium income while reducing the overall cost of the strategy. Long Put (shorter term): Pick a strike price below the market price to provide additional bearish exposure. Why This Strategy is Suitable for Euro Futures: Market Conditions: As seen on the upper chart, the current market outlook for the Euro suggests potential downside due to technical factors, making a bearish strategy appropriate. Volatility: Euro Futures often experience significant price movements, which can be advantageous for the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy, as it thrives on volatility. Flexibility: The staggered expiration dates allow for adjustments and management of the trade over time, accommodating changing market conditions. Futures (underlying using the 6E1! continuous ticker symbol) Entry, Target, and Stop-Loss Prices: Short Entry: 1.09000 Target: 1.08200 Stop-Loss: 1.09400 Options Trade Setup (using Futures September cycle with 6EU2024 ticker symbol): The Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures involves a structured approach to setting up the trade. Here’s a step-by-step guide to executing this strategy: 1. Buy 1 Put (Sep-6 expiration): Strike Price: 1.095 Premium Paid: 0.0102 (or $1,275 per contract) 2. Sell 1 Put (Aug-23 expiration): Strike Price: 1.09 Premium Received: 0.0061 (or $762.5 per contract) 3. Buy 1 Put (Aug-9 expiration): Strike Price: 1.085 Premium Paid: 0.0021 (or $262.5 per contract) Risk Calculation: Net Cost = ($1,275 + $262.5) - $762.5 = $775 Risk: The initial net cost of the strategy. Risk = $775 Trade and Risk Management Effective risk management is essential when trading options strategies like the Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures. Effectively managing the Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures is crucial to optimize potential profits and mitigate risks. Here are common guidelines for managing this options strategy: Using Stop-Loss Orders: In the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy, setting a stop-loss at 1.0940 ensures that if Euro Futures move against the expected direction, the losses are contained. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is a defined risk strategy, meaning the maximum loss is known upfront and limited to the initial net cost. Precise Entries and Exits: Timing the Market: Entering and exiting trades at the right time is crucial. Using technical analysis tools such as UFO Support or Resistance levels can help identify optimal entry and exit points. Monitor Time Decay: Keep a close eye on how the time decay (theta) impacts the value of the options. As the short put approaches expiration, assess whether to roll it to a later date or let it expire. Volatility Changes: Changes in market volatility can affect the strategy’s profitability. Rolling Options: If the market moves unfavorably, rolling the options to different strike prices or expiration dates can help manage risk and maintain the strategy’s viability. Regular Check-ins: Review the position regularly to ensure it aligns with the expected market movement. Adjust if the market conditions change or if the position starts to deviate from the initial plan. Profit Targets: Set predefined profit targets and consider taking profits when these targets are reached. Exit Strategies: Have a clear exit plan for different scenarios, at least for when the stop-loss or target is hit. By implementing robust risk management practices, traders can enhance their ability to manage potential losses and improve the overall effectiveness of their trading strategies. Managing the Bear Put Diagonal Fly requires active monitoring and the flexibility to adjust the positions as market conditions evolve. This proactive approach helps in maximizing potential returns while mitigating risks. Conclusion The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is an advanced options strategy tailored for a bearish outlook on Euro Futures. By strategically selecting options with different expiration dates and strike prices, this strategy offers a cost-effective way to capitalize on anticipated declines in the Euro while managing risk. Summary of the Bear Put Diagonal Fly Strategy: Cost Reduction: The short put helps to offset the cost of the long puts, making the strategy more affordable. Enhanced Bearish Exposure: The additional long put provides extra downside protection. Flexibility: The staggered expiration dates allow for adjustments and trade management over time. Why This Strategy Could Be Beneficial: The current market conditions suggest potential downside for Euro Futures, making a bearish strategy like the Bear Put Diagonal Fly appropriate. The defined risk nature of the strategy ensures that maximum potential losses are known upfront. Effective trade and risk management techniques can further enhance the strategy’s performance and mitigate potential risks. By understanding the mechanics of the Bear Put Diagonal Fly and applying it to Euro Futures, traders can leverage this advanced options strategy to navigate bearish market conditions with greater confidence and precision. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by traddictiv
Inflation's Impact on Stock ReturnsInflation's Impact on Stock Returns Inflation's pervasive influence on the financial landscape cannot be understated. It affects everything from everyday spending to large-scale investing. This FXOpen article dives into the intricate relationship between inflation and stock returns, unravelling the multifaceted dynamics at play. Join us as we dissect the mechanics of the impact of inflation on the stock market, offering clarity in a world of economic ebbs and flows. Understanding Inflation Inflation represents the rising prices of goods and services over time. While a moderate level of inflation is often viewed as a sign of a growing economy, high inflation can erode purchasing power, making everyday items more expensive for consumers. Those trading and investing during high inflation face challenges as it can diminish the real returns on investments. Stock Returns Defined Stock returns denote the gains or losses an investor realises from stock investments. These returns typically manifest in two ways: dividends and capital appreciation. Dividends are regular payments made by corporations to shareholders from their profits. Capital appreciation, on the other hand, refers to the increase in a stock's price over time. It's important to note that stock returns can also be negative if a stock's price decreases. Influencing these returns are a myriad of factors, including company performance, market sentiment, and broader economic conditions. Mechanisms: How Inflation Affects Stock Prices Inflation, with its overarching grip on the economy, wields a substantial influence on stock prices. Understanding this dynamic is vital for traders looking to navigate the stock market during inflation. Below, we'll delve into the various mechanisms through which inflation affects stocks. Cost of Goods Sold and Company Profitability When there's inflation, the costs of raw materials and production generally rise. This escalation can squeeze a company's profit margins unless they pass these increased costs onto the consumers. For some industries, hiking prices might result in decreased demand, further impacting profitability. Consequently, stock prices can see downward pressure as potential investors foresee lower earnings. Consumer Purchasing Power Inflation erodes the value of money, meaning consumers can buy less with the same amount of money as before. This diminished purchasing power can lead to reduced consumer spending. Companies, especially those in the retail and consumer goods sector, may witness a dip in revenue. As revenues play a crucial role in determining stock value, a decline can lead to lower stock prices. Central Bank Responses and Interest Rates Central banks often intervene to counteract high inflation, primarily by raising interest rates. When interest rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive for companies, which can hinder expansion plans and reduce profitability. Additionally, when inflation and interest rates rise, alternative investments like bonds become more appealing than stocks, leading to reduced demand for stocks. By grasping these mechanisms, traders can better anticipate inflation's effect on stocks and devise strategies that account for the intricate relationship between inflation and the stock market. Inflation's Dual Impact: Sectors and Market Caps The impact of inflation isn't uniform across the board; it varies significantly between sectors and company sizes. Certain sectors, like commodities or energy, might benefit from rising prices, turning inflation into an advantage. Conversely, retail or consumer goods sectors might suffer as consumers' purchasing power diminishes, leading to decreased spending. When examining company sizes, the inflation rate and stock market dynamics reveal nuanced patterns. Large-cap companies, with their diversified operations and global reach, often have better tools to hedge against inflationary pressures. In contrast, small-cap stocks, which might be more regionally focused and have fewer resources, can be more vulnerable to the negative effects of high inflation. Historical Perspective: Inflation and Stock Market Performance Historical data provides traders with valuable insights into the dynamics between inflation and stock market performance. For instance, during the 1970s, the US experienced a period of stagflation—simultaneous high inflation and stagnant economic growth. This era saw the S&P 500 struggle to provide real returns, largely due to soaring oil prices and tight monetary policy. Another example can be traced to emerging markets like Argentina in the early 2000s. Faced with skyrocketing inflation rates, the stock market initially surged as locals shifted money into assets to retain value. However, long-term sustainability was challenged by economic instability and a lack of foreign investments. Mitigation: How Traders Can Prepare for Inflation Inflation can unsettle even the savviest traders, but with proper preparation, its challenges can be mitigated. When investing during inflation, diversifying assets becomes paramount. Spreading investments across different asset classes and instruments can act as a buffer against inflation's adverse effects. For instance, you can trade forex or commodity, cryptocurrency*, and ETF CFDs on FXOpen’s TickTrader platform and further equip yourselves with the real-time data and tools necessary to make effective decisions. Additionally, stocks of companies with strong pricing power, which can pass on increased costs to consumers, might fare better than others. Moreover, bonds, especially those with interest rates adjusting to inflation, can be among the best investments during inflation, offering a degree of protection to portfolios. The Bottom Line In understanding inflation's intricate relationship with stock returns, traders arm themselves with valuable insights. To navigate these economic complexities and optimise trading strategies, consider taking the next step: open an FXOpen account, a trusted broker that provides the tools and resources to thrive in ever-evolving financial markets. *At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by FXOpen
2
Mind Over Market: The Burden Of Continuous Chart WatchingNovice traders are often swayed by their emotions. Even when equipped with knowledge of technical and fundamental analysis, as well as risk management, individuals are invariably guided by psychological factors. This influence isn't limited to emotional extremes such as greed, excitement, or despair. It also encompasses feelings like curiosity, self-assertion, and the quest for validation of one’s decisions. While these feelings aren't inherently wrong, they do come with certain nuances. One research agency conducted an analysis of a broker's database, choosing to keep the names confidential to avoid advertising. The agency itself noted that the research was intended for private insights rather than a comprehensive analysis. The primary objective was to identify the actions traders tend to take most frequently. The findings revealed that the most predictable action among traders is closing a position. Interestingly, market orders are closed twice as often as limit orders. This suggests that most traders tend to follow market trends and manually close their trades, which may conflict with established risk management principles. This fact has been termed the “Monitoring Effect”. 📍 WHAT IS THE MONITORING EFFECT? The monitoring effect in trading describes a psychological phenomenon where excessive scrutiny of short-term market fluctuations leads to impulsive and often detrimental trading decisions. When a trader spends too much time staring at the chart, this constant observation distorts their perception of market movements. In essence, a trader who continuously monitors the chart may interpret the data differently than someone who examines it after a few hours of absence. This prolonged focus can create a skewed view of the market, resulting in rash choices that might not align with their overall trading strategy. 📍 NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF MONITORING EFFECTS ON TRADERS • Overemphasizing Short-Term Information. Traders may place excessive importance on recent price movements or news events, leading them to make reactionary decisions. For instance, an impulsive urge to close a trade can arise from a fleeting negative signal, such as a false pattern or a false breakout, even if the overall trading strategy remains sound. • False Perception of News. By constantly tracking news and events, traders can overestimate their significance, prompting rash decisions based on short-term fluctuations. This can lead to trades that are not aligned with long-term strategy or analysis. • Frequent Position Changes. The urge to change positions often is exacerbated by constant monitoring. Traders may respond to momentary shifts in market direction, resulting in frequent reversals of positions. This behavior not only increases trading costs due to commissions and spreads but can also lead to overall reduced profitability. A trader may incur losses as they jump in and out of trades based on short-lived movements. • Emotional Stress. Ongoing market observation can heighten emotional stress and lead to fatigue. As traders become more engrossed in monitoring, their ability to think clearly and make rational decisions diminishes. This emotional toll can distort judgment, further complicating the trading process. • Increased Risk Appetite. Prolonged engagement with the market can result in an increased appetite for risk. As traders become accustomed to fluctuations, they may become more willing to take on higher-risk trades, often without a solid foundation in their analysis. This increased risk tolerance can lead to larger potential losses, especially if the market moves against them. To watch the chart or not to watch the chart? The monitoring effect has some positive aspects. Firstly, you train your skills of instant reaction to an event. Secondly, you learn to quickly recognize patterns and find levels. 📍 TIPS TO MANAGE CHART MONITORING 1. Wait After News Releases Avoid Immediate Reaction. It’s crucial to refrain from making quick trades immediately after major news releases due to potential volatility and false spikes. Prices may not reflect fair value during that time, leading to uncertain outcomes. Trade After the Dust Settles. Waiting for 30-60 minutes allows the initial market reaction to stabilize, providing a clearer market direction and reducing the likelihood of entering a trade based on erratic price movements. 2. Develop Psychological Stability Practice Mindfulness. Engage in mindfulness techniques such as meditation or deep breathing exercises to enhance emotional regulation. Set Realistic Expectations. Understand that losses are a part of trading and work on accepting them without letting them influence your emotional state. Simulate Trading. Use demo accounts to practice trading strategies without real financial pressure, keeping emotions in check. 3. Focus on the Trading Process Emphasize Strategy Over Outcomes. Concentrate on executing your trading plan and strategies instead of being fixated on profit and loss. This shift in mindset can reduce stress and enhance performance. Track Your Progress. Regularly review your trades to identify patterns in behavior and decision-making, making adjustments as necessary without getting bogged down by the results of individual trades. 4. Avoid Unrealistic Goals Set Achievable Milestones. Goals should be specific, measurable, and realistic based on your skill level and market conditions. Aim for gradual improvement rather than sudden leaps in performance. Focus on Personal Growth. Compare your progress against your own benchmarks rather than against other traders, which can help foster a healthy mindset. 5. Use and Stick to a Trading Plan Define Your Strategy. Clearly outline entry and exit strategies, risk management rules, and market conditions for trading. A well-structured plan reduces impulsive decisions. Review and Adapt. Regularly review your trading plan to ensure it aligns with market conditions and your evolving trading style. Adjust it as needed, but avoid impulsive changes based on short-term outcomes. To mitigate the effects of constant monitoring, traders are encouraged to develop a clear trading plan that includes well-defined rules for entering and exiting trades. Utilizing automatic stop losses and take-profit orders is essential for effective risk management. Additionally, setting specific time frames for checking trading positions can help avoid the pitfalls of incessantly watching the market. For instance, you might establish a schedule to check in on your trades five minutes after the start of each new hourly candle. The key is to cultivate the discipline to adhere to this schedule and resist the temptation to deviate from it. 📍 CONCLUSION Everything is good in moderation. Long-term trading strategies do not require constant monitoring; instead, a quick five-minute check of the chart every few hours are often sufficient. Utilizing pending orders that align with your risk management guidelines can also enhance your trading approach. Taking breaks after each 1H candle can be beneficial. If there are no clear trading signals, allow yourself to step away from the chart for the duration of one hour. During this time, it's not necessary to search for signals on lower timeframes. Embracing this disciplined approach can help you maintain focus and improve your overall trading performance. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
1
Building Success In PineScript - The Ment Pressure SystemAfter more than two weeks of playing around with Pinescript, I've managed to put together some really cool tools for my followers/subscribers. The idea of price pressure intrigued me, so I decided to create something based on it. Ideally, I planned to build something that helped traders find and execute better trades. It is difficult to identify chop vs. trending in any market/interval. My goal was to create a small suite of tools to help traders identify better trade setups. I still believe I have more work to do with these pressure tools, but I'm very happy with how they work. I did learn some "tricks" with Pinescript related to how variables and processes work (of course, by trial and error). Watching the code run in real-time has been fun (watching a 2 min ES chart). I can't wait to see how my followers use these tools and develop new ways to deploy them efficiently. What are your thoughts? Anything I can do to improve? Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny
What is Support and Resistance in Trading. Key Levels Basics In the today's article, we will discuss the absolute basics of technical analysis: support and resistance levels. I will explain to you why support and resistance are important , how to identify them properly, and we will discuss what is the difference between support and resistance level and support or resistance zone. Let's start with a definition of a support . A support is a historically significant price level that lies below the current prices of an asset. While a resistance is a historically significant price level that is above the current prices. From a key resistance, a bearish movement will be anticipated in futures, while from a key support, a bullish reaction will be expected. Take a look at EURAUD pair, we can see a perfect example of a key resistance level. 2 times in a row, the market dropped from that in the past, confirming its significance. By a historical significance , I mean that the price reacted strongly to such price level in the past and a strong bullish, bearish movement initiated from that. Above is the example of a key horizontal support on EURCHF. The underlined key level was respected by the market multiple times in the past. From time to time, the market breaks key levels. After a breakout , a support turns into resistance and a resistance turns into support. Above is the example of a breakout of a key support on GBPNZD, after its violation it turned into resistance from where a bearish movement followed. Always remember, that in order to confirm a breakout of a key support, we strictly need a candle close below that. By the way, the structure here is also the zone, but we will discuss it later on. Above is the example of a breakout of a key resistance, that turned into support after a violation. Very often, newbie traders ask me, how many times the price should react to a key level to make it valid. I do believe that 1 time is more than enough, however, make sure that the reaction to that is strong . Above are key support and resistance on GBPCAD. Even though both structures were respected just one time in the past, the reaction to them was strong enough to confirm that the underlined levels are the key levels. However, historical significance of a key support or resistance is not enough to make it valid. What matters is the most recent reaction of the price to that. Key supports and resistance lose their significance with time, and your job as a technical analyst, is to stay flexible and adapt to changing market conditions, regularly updating your analysis. Above is a key resistance level on AUDJPY from where the market dropped heavily 2 times in a row. However, with time, the underlined resistance lost its significance. Such a structure is not a key level anymore. Remember a simple rule: if a key structure is not respected by the sellers, and by the buyers after its breakout. Or vice versa: if a key structure is not respected by the buyers, and then by the sellers after its breakout. Such a structure is not a key level , and you should not rely on that in the future. In our example, the resistance was broken - it was neglected by the sellers. After the breakout, it should have turned into support, but the buyers also neglected that and the structure lost its strength. Now, a couple of words about time frames, you can identify key support and resistances on any time frame, but the rule is that higher is the time frame, more significant are the supports and resistances there. In my analysis, I primarily rely on support and resistance on a daily time frame. Always remember that the financial markets are not perfect and the prices will quite rarely respect the exact support or resistance levels. Quite often, the markets may fluctuate around key levels so it is highly recommendable to rely not on single key levels but on zones. I recommend taking into consideration not only the exact level from where a strong reaction followed, but also a candle close level of such a candle. The support zone above is based on a wick and a candle close of a candle. Also, quite often there will be the situations when multiple key levels will lie close to each other. In such a case, it is better to unite all this structures in one single zone. Above we see multiple key resistances. We will unite all these resistances into one single zone. The upper boundary of a resistance zone will be the highest wick and its lower boundary will be the highest candle close. Above we have 2 key supports lying close to each other. We will unite these supports into one single zone. The lower boundary of a support zone will be the lowest wick and the upper boundary will be the lowest candle close. Here is how a complete structure analysis should look. Following the rules that we discussed, you should identify at least 2 closest key resistances and 2 closest key supports. These structures will be applied as the entries for various trading strategies. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
23
Elliott Wave DemonstrationDemonstration of Elliott Wave Principles using Bitcoin chart: Rules: Wave 2 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked Wave 3 is not the shortest of Wave 1, 3 and 5 => checked Wave 4 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked Guidelines: Guideline of Alternation: Wave 2 and 4 alternates in form (sharp vs sideways), retracement (shallow vs deep) and duration (long vs short) => checked Guideline of Wave Equality: Two out of three waves (1,3 and 5) tend to be equal in length and duration, Wave 1 and 5 meeting this guideline => checked Momentum is highest during end of wave 3, end of Wave 5 normally creates divergence with price => checked Volume during Wave 3 is normally the highest amongst Wave 1,3 and 5 Relations with Fib ratios: Wave 2 retraced Wave 1 by 78.6% (deep) Wave 3 was equal to 261.8% of Wave 1 (longest) Wave 4 retraced Wave 3 by 38.2% (shallow) Wave 5 was equal to 100% of Wave 1 (Guideline of Wave equality)
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MalayKJ
Profitable Triangle Trading Strategy Explained Descending triangle formation is a classic reversal pattern . It signifies the weakness of buyers in a bullish trend and bearish accumulation . In this article, I will teach you how to trade descending triangle pattern. I will explain how to identify the pattern properly and share my trading strategy. ⭐️ The pattern has a very peculiar price action structure : 1. Trading in a bullish trend, the price sets a higher high and retraces setting a higher low . 2. Then the market starts growing again but does not manage to set a new high, setting a lower high instead. 3. Then the price drops again perfectly respecting the level of the last higher low, setting an equal low . 4. After that, one more bullish movement and one more consequent lower high , bearish move, and equal low . Based on the last three highs , a trend line can be drawn. Based on the equal lows , a horizontal neckline is spotted. ❗What is peculiar about such price action is the fact that a set of lower highs signifies a weakening bullish momentum : fewer and fewer buyers are willing to buy from horizontal support based on equal lows. 🔔 Such price action is called a bearish accumulation . Once the pattern is formed it is still not a trend reversal signal though. Remember that the price may set many lower highs and equal lows within the pattern. The trigger that is applied to confirm a trend reversal is a bearish breakout of the neckline of the pattern. 📉Then a short position can be opened. For conservative trading, a retest entry is suggested. Safest stop is lying at least above the level of the last lower high. However, in case the levels of the lower highs are almost equal it is highly recommendable to set a stop loss above them all. 🎯For targets look for the closest strong structure support. Below, you can see the example of a descending triangle trade that I took on NZDCAD pair. After I spotted the formation of the pattern, I was patiently waiting for a breakout of its neckline. After a breakout, I set a sell limit order on a retest. Stop loss above the last lower high. TP - the closest key support. 90 pips of pure profit made. Learn to identify and trade descending triangle. It is one of the most accurate price action patterns every trader should know.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Importance of zones!Hey traders, here is a great example of why I set specific zones for all my trades. When I do my analysis for the day, I create zones based off of strict support and resistance zones and trend line breaks as well. These zones and all my trades are based off the daily candle close. I choose to drop down to the 15 min chart but you can just go off the 4hr chart if it’s easier but you might not get as many trades. I always shoot for 5 pips but 8 out of 10 times price moves way farther. With 3 crazy kids I have to set targets and they are either gonna hit or stop out. I really hate losing so I try my damn best to make sure momentum is in my favor. For my trade set ups, typically what I would like to see is a daily candle closing bearish and the 4 hour candle closing bearish and vice versa. Discipline is a major key factor in my trading strategy something that I have acquired over the years. Stick to the plan and WAIT FOR IT! OANDA:CADCHF I could have 20 great trades lined up for the day and not one of them break my zone. It’s ok though, there’s always tomorrow. If price doesn’t break my zone by the end Tokyo session I’m out cuz the London session is just a bully that likes to go the opposite direction. I also cleaned up my chart so it’s easier to read both for you and myself. If I ever post an idea, I might just post my trade then go back into the comments and explain the details later. Happy trading. Aloha and much love
Education
by W8_4it
Exploring Trading Basics: Expert Tips for New TradersWelcome to the thrilling world of trading, future market experts! If you’re stepping into this arena for the first time, it’s natural to feel both excited and a little overwhelmed. No worries — we’ve set up this nice value-packed TradingView Idea to make you feel at home. Read on for practical tips that will help you kick off your trading journey to a strong start. Ready, set, go? Let’s roll! 1. Get Yourself Familiarized Action Step : Your first step as a fresh trader is to familiarize yourself with the market fundamentals. Start by getting a solid grasp of basic market concepts. Learn about different asset classes like stocks , forex , or crypto . Understand how they work and what news or events influence prices across the board (spoiler: if you’re looking at the bigger picture and keep it high level, there aren’t too many things to consider — check the Economic Calendar Related Idea below). Spend an hour or two each week reading about market fundamentals. Knowledge of these basics will make you more confident in your trading approach and also help you see where you feel most comfortable putting your money. And don't forget about the trading psychology part . 2. Set Clear, Achievable Goals Action Step : Write down your trading goals and stick them somewhere you can see them. Aim for specific, measurable targets like “Hit a 2% monthly return” or “Learn a new trading strategy weekly.” This keeps your efforts focused and on track. But don’t stop there. Keep revisiting, updating, and refining your trading goals. Think of them as your compass or map that you need to follow in order to get where you want. In contrast, not having a goal or goals might throw you out in the open where you wander without a clear path or direction. 3. Stick to Your Budget Action Step: Decide on your total trading capital and how much you’re willing to risk per trade. Use the 1-2% rule: never risk more than 1% or 2% of your total capital on a single trade. This will help you protect your account from total wipeout. It’s easy to get swayed by some massive move in the market (yes, we know about Bitcoin BTC/USD ), but catching these waves is rarely an easy game. The better you are at sticking to a healthy level of risk exposure, the better your chances to stay in the game for as long as possible. 4. Stay Updated with Market News Action Step : Dedicate 15 minutes each morning to checking financial news. Keeping tabs on major economic reports and events will give you an understanding of what investors regard as important so you can add it to your agenda too. We’ve set up a nice and easygoing Top stories news stream that serves you only top-tier market-moving scoops, published daily and updated in real time. Make sure to frequent them so you can raise your level of knowing what’s happening in the markets. 5. Keep a Trading Journal Action Step : For every trade, jot down the details in a journal. Include entry and exit points, your reasons for the trade, and the outcome. Review your journal weekly to identify patterns and areas for improvement. If you want to get an even more precise look at your trading performance, add more columns to it and include prospect trades, or a watchlist of positions you’re interested in. Mark your monthly performance, year-to-date returns, and even how much you paid in commissions. 6. Start Small and Scale Up Action Step : Begin with small trades to minimize risk while you’re learning. For example, if you have $1,000, start with trades of $50-$100 and keep your stop tight around the 2% mark. That way, you’ll gain experience and see how you feel when you have an open trade. Leave a trade overnight, watch it actively or let it run for a few days (provided you use a stop loss , more on it in the Stop Loss Related Idea below) — all these will help you ease into smoother trading and build better confidence. After that, you can gradually increase your trade size for bigger profits. And — most importantly — don’t rush it. The markets will be there tomorrow; but will you? 7. Use Stop-Loss Orders Action Step : Always set a stop-loss order when placing a trade. For instance, if you buy a stock at $100, set a stop-loss at $95. This means your position will be automatically sold if the price drops to $95, limiting your loss to $5 per share. The use of stop-loss orders, or simply stop losses, can’t be emphasized enough. No matter how confident you are on a trade, how much conviction you have to go big, always think of the downside, or how much you’re willing to lose. 8. Join a Trading Community Action Step : If you’re reading this, then you’ve already nailed this step. TradingView is the world’s largest finance, markets, and charting platform, boasting more than 60 million monthly visitors — one big, big community . This is the place where traders share tips and strategies, show off their charts, discoveries, patterns, price targets, and trading ideas. So, stick around, engage, ask questions, and learn from the experiences of others. 9. Diversify Your Portfolio Action Step : Spread your investments across different sectors and asset classes. Don’t just buy big tech stocks ; consider some auto companies as well or the volatile corner of cryptocurrencies. Diversifying your portfolio (learn about it in the Diversification Related Idea below) will help you balance your risk, ideally without reducing the potential for returns. You don’t have to go all-in on a trade and YOLO your entire life savings into a Solana meme coin. Think of the long term and tread carefully. Sometimes, you’re as good as your last trade. 10. Continuously Improve Your Skills Action Step : Dedicate time each week to learning something new about trading. Watch educational videos , read books, or dive into financial podcasts where big market events get broken down or where traders and investors share their experience and what made them successful. The markets renew each day, never resting, never ceasing to oscillate and presenting new trading opportunities. Always learn, never get complacent, and keep striving for more! Share Your Thoughts! So there you have it, folks! With these practical, actionable tips, you’re ready to jump into the trading game with some added confidence. Remember, every pro was once a newbie. Stay cool, stay informed, and most importantly, have fun with it (but also be smart). Happy trading! 🚀📈
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SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
4