SMART MONEY CONCEPT IN FOREX Here i show you smart money concept you can practice and trade with the combination of supply and demand and also liquidity .So try to practice before going real account. Use money management
Trend Analysis
Options Indicator Explained - so you can SEE what you tradeEver since we created this indicator back around 2020 on the TradingView platform it is so far the best platform for our analysis, research, coding, and development of different trading tools. This was 4 years ago, but we have been with TradingView almost for a decade !
The whole concept of this indicator came when a long time ago we read the big big book of options, and could not understand how come the stock price moved up but our calls are losing money ! Yes, we have been there too. And then came this indicator to life. We don't make a trade without it ever since. If you saw the video, you clearly know why.
Let's delve into some key concepts that can elevate your trading game:
### 1. Visualizing Profit and Loss
One of the most powerful tools in an options trader's arsenal is the ability to plot profit and loss lines on a chart. This visualization helps you understand the time decay of the options you buy or sell. By seeing how your potential profits or losses change over time, you can make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit trades.
### 2. Moving Beyond the Greeks
The Greeks—Delta, Gamma, Theta, and Vega—are often emphasized in options trading, but their standalone value can be limited. What truly matters is how these metrics impact your profit and loss curvature. Think of it like driving a car: while an acceleration meter provides some information, what you really need is the speedometer and a clear view of the road. Focusing on the profit and loss curves allows you to grasp the real impact of these factors on your trades.
### 3. Identifying Pivot Points
By observing profit and loss lines, you gain insights into optimal entry and exit points. Placing trades at pivot points can enhance your reward-to-risk ratios. Certain options offer generous room for stop-loss placement and quick profits if you choose pivot points where price rejections are likely. Seeing these lines helps confirm that your trading idea has a high probability of success.
### 4. Conducting Volatility Simulations
Professional volatility testing with your indicator is crucial. It allows you to anticipate how changes in volatility will affect your options' profit and loss. Each case is unique and dependent on the underlying stock, so it's vital to have contingency plans and avoid trading blindly. You must always take into account that the volatility can drop or rise against you, and you need to see that even if it happens, you will still be okay, and not be a dreamer. Reality is everything, trade realistically.
### 5. Timing Your Trades
Boost your performance by understanding how much profit you can lose (when buying options) or gain (when selling options) over the duration of your trade. This knowledge helps you make better timing decisions and manage your trades more effectively while you are inside the trade. In some trades you can clearly see that you just don't have the time to survive a correction and then wait for the next pulse wave to come and save you, you can see clearly that it is better to take profit today, since you just do not have enough time for a correction and a bounce back to the current profitable price. In options, what it is profitable today is NOT profitable tomorrow. I show you this in the video.
### 6. Simplifying with Profit Lines
You don't need to rely heavily on the Greeks anymore. Profit lines already account for these metrics, freeing your mind to focus on price action. This approach eliminates the confusion often associated with the non-linear behavior of options, rooted in complex models like Black-Scholes.
### 7. The Black-Scholes Model and Implied Volatility
Understanding the Black-Scholes model and implied volatility is fundamental. These concepts help you grasp how options are priced and how market conditions can impact their value. Using the indicator, you don't need even to know who or what is the Black-Scholes Model, since it does all the work and heavy lifting for you, by plotting you exactly what you truly need... Where you make a profit, where you will make a loss, and how much (profit lines).
### 8. In the Money vs. Out of the Money
Knowing the difference between "in the money" and "out of the money" options is crucial. In-the-money options have intrinsic value, while out-of-the-money options are more speculative and rely on price movements to become profitable.
### 9. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Options
Short-term call options offer quick potential gains but come with higher risks due to time decay. Long-term call options, on the other hand, provide more time for your trade to work out, reducing the impact of time decay but often requiring a larger capital investment. I show a clear example in the video.
### 10. Maintaining Reward-to-Risk Ratios
You should make sure you always maintain the reward-to-risk ratios in your favor BEFORE you enter the trade, this is what keeps you in the game and makes you thrive and not just survive. Do you think they let a pilot to land an airplane, just with his "gut feeling" or do they give them an indicator to SEE the runway? If you don't see your profit and loss lines, you don't see the runway when you land your plane. We've all seen those wallstreetbets BLIND crash landings in options and know how they end before they started. This can and should be avoided, always know your risk, and your potential reward.
### 11. Proof of Accuracy
Finally, reliable indicators provide proof of accuracy, showing you the same profit or loss you'd experience given stock movements and implied volatility changes. This consistency gives you confidence in your trades, eliminating confusion and preventing unexpected losses.
In the end of the video, there is proof of the accuracy, that the indicator in did shows you the same profit or loss you will have in the position, given the stock movement and implied volatility changes, so you can rest assured that your landing indicator will not surprise you no matter the weather, you will have full control on your options trade. No more the feeling of confusion and then your fast profit crushes to zero or even a loss and you don't know why.
Master these concepts, and you'll have a robust framework for navigating the complexities of options trading with precision and confidence.
How to Identify Market Downtrends Without Fundamentals🔍 A Fundamental Perspective
On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5%. However, their guidance suggested a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with projections of only two reductions instead of four as previously expected.
This cautious stance, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market, triggered a sharp market sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted over 1,100 points, recording its steepest single-day drop since 1974.
🔍 Market Breadth: A Technical Perspective
If you’re not tracking fundamental events, Market Breadth indicators can offer valuable insights into market trends and the health of the index.
1️⃣ US30 Market Breadth EMA 20
The histogram bars in yellow reflect the number range of stocks in the DJIA with strong uptrends. Recently, the height of these bars has been steadily declining, signaling that fewer stocks are maintaining bullish trends.
2️⃣ Market Breadth MACD
Conversely, the red line of the MACD indicator, which represents stocks in a strong downtrend, has been rising. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is building across the market.
3️⃣ Market Breadth EMA Alignment
The red line crossing above the green line in this indicator confirms a strong downtrend, providing additional evidence of bearish dominance.
📈 Price Action Analysis
The price has broken below the ascending channel, which further supports the bearish case. Combining this with signals from the Market Breadth indicators strengthens the probability of a sustained downtrend in the DJIA.
✅ Key Takeaway
By analyzing Market Breadth and combining technical indicators, you can gauge the market's strength even if you're not following the fundamentals. As DJIA breaks below critical technical levels, traders should exercise caution and watch for further confirmation of bearish trends.
Save Millions by Monitoring Your Portfolio with the VIXGreetings Everyone,
Let’s face it: trading is hard.
You’ve done your research—checked and triple-checked everything. The fundamentals of the company? Solid. The option chain? Looks great. The volume? Perfect. You’ve been patient, waiting for that perfect breakout, confirming the validity of the support level on the retest. Confidently, you hit “buy,” and for a moment, you breathe a sigh of relief.
This trade will work out… right?
But just a few days later, horror sets in. One single wick—just one—obliterates your positions. Thousands of dollars gone. Your carefully constructed trades set ablaze by volatility you didn’t see coming.
Enter the Volatility Index (VIX)
The VIX, often called the “Fear Index,” is a real-time pulse of the broader market, derived from the S&P 500 options market.
Unlike your standard indicators, the VIX offers insights into market volatility and trader sentiment. It tends to move inversely to the market—when fear is high, the VIX spikes, and when confidence reigns, the VIX calms down, often reverting to its historical average (a concept known as mean reversion).
What Makes the VIX So Powerful?
1. A Market Barometer
The VIX is like a weather forecast for traders. Here’s what the levels mean:
• VIX Below 20: Markets are stable, with low volatility expected. Ideal conditions for trend-following strategies.
• VIX Above 30: High volatility is brewing. Risk-on positions could be in jeopardy, and hedging becomes critical.
2. Real-Time Sentiment
The VIX is calculated minute-by-minute from SPX options, capturing real-time expectations of market volatility over the next 30 days. This means you don’t just rely on hindsight—you get a forward-looking view.
How to Use the VIX in Your Trading Strategy
1. Portfolio Risk Management
Use the VIX as an early warning system. Spikes in the VIX can signal when to reduce your exposure to equities or risky positions. For example:
• High VIX (>30): Consider hedging with options, selling high-beta stocks, or adding defensive assets.
• Low VIX (<20): A good environment for taking calculated risks or riding existing trends.
2. Timing Your Trades
• Mean Reversion Opportunities: If the VIX spikes to extremes, it often reverts to its average (~20). This can signal an opportunity to go long on stocks after the panic subsides.
• Avoid Complacency: When the VIX is at historic lows, the market may be overly complacent. Watch for potential pullbacks or corrections.
Why Does This Matter?
Because volatility can destroy your portfolio if you’re not prepared. The VIX allows you to anticipate market conditions, adjust your risk exposure, and stay one step ahead of the next move.
It’s not just about finding the perfect trade setup—it’s about understanding the environment in which you’re trading. The VIX gives you that critical context, turning the market from a chaotic gamble into a manageable system.
My Strategy:
As of late, I have been taking a trend trading approach to monitoring the VIX (fear index)
Is the price ranging or Is it trending?
If it’s trending I ask myself what direction is it trending in —- is it a bullish trend or a bearish trend? From there I can monitor closely daily or every couple days to see how it’s developing.
This indicator helps 1. Reduce Trading Anxiety 2. Helps me deleverage sometimes just at the nick of time 3. Keeps me objective.
Final Thoughts
The next time you are making a decision about a trade, realize that your ticker does not exist in a vacuum.
Thanks for checking out my post please leave a like!
Thanks,
CL
Setting Alerts by Watchlist
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
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Now, you can receive alerts for various coins (tokens) that meet the conditions with TradingView's alert settings without using an external program.
You can add the coin (token) you want to trade to a watchlist and receive alerts that meet the conditions.
You can now set alerts by watchlist.
If you want to receive an alarm only once per candle when the BW (100) indicator of the 1D chart is broken, set it as shown in the picture.
It seems that the time frame chart settings of the alert are supported in various ways.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Bullish Market structure Rules *A bullish market structure is defined as a structure that forms a series of Higher highs (HH) and Higher lows (HL)
What can we expect on a Bullish market structure?
*Price has to break previous HH and respect previous HL
*We should be expecting BUYS on discounted prices
How can i identify discounted prices?
-You can use Gann box
-You can use Fib Tool
-Anything below 50% is considered "Discounted price"
-Order block below 50% level
I personally use the FIB tool 71.8%-78.8% levels. that's where i look for trend change.
How do you identify valid trend change?
* Reply in comment sections
The illustration highlights the recent BTC market structure.
Two Types of UptrendsSony Group (6758) - Weekly Chart
There are two types of uptrends within an overall upward trend.
This statement might sound confusing at first.
What I mean is that there are "easy-to-understand" uptrends and "difficult" uptrends.
The chart shows two blue circles.
Which one represents an easy-to-understand chart, and which one represents a difficult chart?
Opinions might differ, but I feel the chart on the left is easy to understand, while the one on the right is more difficult.
The reason is that on the left, the pullback buying (buying on dips) continues, and there are no clear exit points.
On the other hand, the right side ultimately trends upward, but the trend doesn't sustain, making it hard to hold a position.
So, how should we deal with such situations?
Since this is a weekly chart, one option is to monitor it with a swing trading approach using the daily chart.
However, when faced with a difficult chart, you also have the option of walking away from that stock instead of forcing a strategy.
Focusing on finding easy-to-read charts and trading only in straightforward situations can often lead to better results.
Keep in mind that this is one way to think about trading.
How to PROTECT your profits while letting them runIn the trading business you need to let your profits run while also managing your risks that means to cut your losses short.
Losses of unrealized profits are real profits that are lost. What if you could save them?
Well, there is a way...
It is not always available but it is one you want to know since if you can save 3 points of wiggle room and pay 1 point or less, over the long run it adds up to HUGE chunk of profit to your bottom line.
The reason I applied this method is because TSLA was doing 3 days in a row a push and gap up, so it seems likely people will want to take profits... but this is TSLA... it can shoot up above 500 and reach who knows where... (she did it before...).
So I want to TAKE MY HUGE profit, while giving it the option to continue to the moon, if it will want to do so...
You can never take the very top anyway, so if you "give back" 1 point of profit it is considered reasonable, but if in case the price falls down sharply or gapped down I can give back maybe 3 points with this strength of volatility, which is undesireable.
So what I did?
I sold the PUT option at strike 470 at a price of $15 (my point was $17) so for me it is even less than a point so it is very attractive deal to me...
Then... if the price had crushed down it meant for me that I sold my stocks at a price of 470 while paying the hedge cost of the PUT option of 15 so it is equivalent to me that I sold my stock at a price of 455, which is ALMOST the top. Making sure ~90% of the profit stays in my pocket. So I WIN.
If the price would continue to shoot up, then I making SUPER HUGE MONEY, while sleeping like a baby, that I already realized my HUGE profit. So I WIN.
So either way, I WIN !
Since the price did not crushed the next day and hold, and my stop loss advanced, so there was no longer need to my PUT option hedge since if price will fall I will get out with the stop loss with the same profit. So I sold the PUT hedge for a small loss, so the hedge cost me 0.25 a point overall. SUPER WORTH IT !
FYI, this comes from years of experience, but I give you some of my experience, you could do it too.
The moral of the story... when you have HUGE profit, and you feel itchy to take profit, don't ! and try to hedge yourself with options ! this way, if you were wrong and you have GME, AMC on your hand, you don't let them go, and you WIN either way ! Sleeping like a baby.
Stock Of The Day / 12.18.24 / NUKK12.18.2024 / NASDAQ:NUKK
Fundamentals. Second day of growth on the news of the acquisition.
Technical analysis.
Daily chart: Exit upwards from the annual accumulation.
Premarket: Range movement on increased volume.
Main session: We observe a confident upward movement at the beginning of the session after holding the previous day's high level 17.66. After acceleration and the formation of the top of 34.00, the price begins to tighten to the level of 23.00 against the upward movement. We consider a long trade to continue the movement in case the structure of the tightening is broken upward.
Trading scenario: #pullback along the trend (#false tightening) to the level 23.00
Entry: 24.45 on the breakout of the tightening structure and an upward exit on increased volume.
Stop: 22.69 we hide behind the level with a reserve for slippage.
Exit: Close part of the position before the level of 34.00 (RR1/5), close the rest of the position on the return candle after the trading halted at 1:30 p.m. (RR 1/15).
Trade potential: 1/15
P.S. Today's has shown a clear advantage of trading "In Play" stocks. Despite the fact that the market fell by 3%, NUKK did not notice this and continued to go one's own way, demonstrating significant growth and a very technical nature of the movement.
Trading Gold on lower TF. Educational only. Very recent.Here is another example of trading on the very low time frame. I was live here trading and I had 2 Short positions, one of which I close during the video.
I would not say that being on the very low TF's is better. But what it does allow for is to see the way price is moving in the lead-up to the low timeframes 1-15 minutes. Down on the very low TF's you will see the same patterns and formation just like the higher TF's, lots of D/tops, D/bottoms and even the 1 second has these patterns.
I think its an advantage to be on very low timeframes when trading things like Heads n Shoulders patterns because you can see what is happening in the price action.
For example, say you are waiting for price to move up to the neckline where the pattern may trigger your Long and you are on the 1 minute timeframe, but you see that price is ever so gently receding and moving back down. Well, I would drop to the very low timeframes all the way down to 1 second. Now back to our example, on the 1 second TF I see a double top and because we are on the 1 sec things will move a bit faster.
However, I have confirmed why price is moving back a bit on the 1 miute. The very low TF's confirm that price is moving down a bit due to a Double top forming, so I do not worry so much and I wait until the D/top plays out and then my pattern on the 1-5 minutes will hopefully stay in play.
Video to get a feel for very Low TF Trading. 1sec & UpHey guys,
This is an educational video approx. 10 mins. (may less I didn't check) on low timeframe trading so especially the 1-5 minute charts and combining it with very low timeframe charting 45 seconds down to 1 second.
Silver Bullet Strategy AUDUSD | 17/12/2024At 9:55 EST, we arrived at our trading desk to scout for trades using silver bullet strategy. We focused on these pairs EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD, hoping to get favorable trading conditions during the session.
After 15 minutes, our first FVG formed on GBPUSD, indicating a buying opportunity when price retraces into the FVG on this currency pair. Five minutes later, a similar setup to that which formed on GBPUSD appeared on USDCAD as well indicating that we also look for buying opportunities on this pair when we get a retrace into the FVG. Shortly, a FVG formed on AUDUSD, suggesting a selling opportunity when the price retraces into the newly formed FVG.
Immediately after identifying the FVG on AUDUSD, the next candle entered the FVG fulfilling all the requirements for our entry criteria. We executed the trade and monitored the other pairs to check if any of them met the entry criteria. However, none of them had at that time, so we entered one trade and waited to see others would give us an entry.
We had only 25 minutes to enter the two other setups we observed, otherwise, we would not be able to take those trades due to our trade deadline being at 11:00 EST. We checked USDCAD and realized we got a retrace, but it failed to go lower to give us an entry, so we did nothing. A similar situation was encountered on GBPUSD.
We failed to get an entry on the other pairs, however, the positive aspect was that our trade on AUDUSD was progressing well in our intended direction. After waiting a while, we checked on the position again to assess its performance only to realize it had retraced back to our entry point. An ideal situation? No, but this was the reality, we remained unfazed because we had only risked an amount we were comfortable losing.
The trade consolidated around our entry price for a while, but we were in no rush. We had three options:
1. Trade reaches the take profit
2. The trade hits the stop loss
3. We manually close the trades at 16:00 EST
These are the rules we have on our checklist and we intend to stick by them
This trade neither hit our TP nor SL, so we decided to manually close it at 16:00 EST for a small profit, which we’re perfectly okay with. Remember, simply following your trading rules is a win on its own. Your rules exist for a reason!
What Is ICT Turtle Soup, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is ICT Turtle Soup, and How Can You Use It in Trading?
The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a strategic trading approach designed to exploit false breakouts in financial markets. By understanding and leveraging liquidity grabs, traders can identify potential reversals and enter trades with relative precision. This article delves into the components of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, how to identify and use it, and its potential advantages and limitations, providing traders with valuable insights to potentially enhance their trading strategies.
The ICT Turtle Soup Pattern Explained
ICT Turtle Soup is a trading pattern developed by the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) that focuses on exploiting false breakouts in the market. This ICT price action strategy aims to identify and take advantage of situations where the price briefly moves beyond a key support or resistance level, only to reverse direction shortly after. This movement is often seen in ranging markets where prices oscillate between established highs and lows.
The concept behind ICT Turtle Soup trading is rooted in the idea of liquidity hunts and market imbalances. When the price breaks out, it often triggers stop-loss orders set by other traders, creating a temporary imbalance. The ICT Turtle Soup strategy seeks to capitalise on this by entering trades in the opposite direction once the breakout fails and the price returns to its previous range.
The pattern is named humorously after the original Turtle Traders' strategy, which focuses on genuine breakouts. In contrast, ICT Turtle Soup takes advantage of these failed attempts, thus "making soup out of turtles" by transforming unproductive breakout attempts into potentially effective trades.
Typically, traders look for specific signs of a false breakout, such as a price briefly moving above a recent high or below a recent low but failing to sustain the move. This strategy is particularly effective when used in conjunction with other ICT concepts, such as higher timeframe analysis and understanding of market structure.
Components of the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern
To effectively utilise the ICT Turtle Soup setup, it’s essential to understand its core components: order flow and market structure, liquidity, and internal versus external liquidity.
Order Flow and Market Structure
Order flow and market structure are critical in analysing the ICT Turtle Soup pattern. This involves observing price movements and traders' behaviour in different timeframes. Traders can analyse higher and lower timeframe price movements in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
Higher Timeframe Structure
This refers to the broader trend governing the lower timeframe trend. For traders using the 15m-1h charts to trade, this might mean structure visible on 4-hour, daily, or weekly charts.
Higher timeframe structures help traders identify the major support and resistance levels. These levels are essential as they mark the boundaries within which the market generally oscillates. Traders use these to determine the prevailing market direction and potential areas where false breakouts (stop hunts) are likely to occur.
Lower Timeframe Structure
Lower timeframe structures are examined on hourly or minute charts. These provide a more detailed view of price action within the higher timeframe’s range and account for the bullish and bearish legs that dictate a broader higher timeframe trend.
Liquidity and Stop Hunts
In general trading terms, liquidity represents how easy it is to enter or exit a market. However, in the context of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, areas of liquidity can be identified beyond key swing points.
Stop Hunts
Stop hunts, also known as a liquidity sweep, occur when the price temporarily moves above a resistance level or below a support level to trigger stop-loss orders. This movement creates a liquidity spike as traders' stops are hit, providing a favourable condition for the price to reverse direction. ICT Turtle Soup traders seek to exploit these moments by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction once the liquidity is absorbed.
Internal and External Liquidity
Understanding internal and external liquidity is vital for applying the ICT Turtle Soup pattern effectively.
Internal Liquidity
This refers to the liquidity available within the range of the higher timeframe structure. It involves identifying smaller support and resistance levels within the larger range. For example, in a bullish leg, there will be a series of higher highs and higher lows; beneath these higher lows is where internal liquidity rests. This internal liquidity will be targeted to form a bearish leg as part of a higher timeframe bullish trend.
External Liquidity
This involves liquidity that exists outside the key highs and lows of the higher timeframe trend. To use the example of the bullish leg in a higher timeframe bullish trend, the low it originated from and the high it creates as the bearish retracement begins count as areas of external liquidity.
Order Blocks and Imbalances
While not directly involved in the ICT Turtle Soup setup, understanding order blocks and imbalances can provide insight into where the price might head and the general market context.
Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling activity has previously occurred, often due to institutional orders. These blocks represent zones of support and resistance where the price is likely to react.
Bullish Order Blocks
These are typically found at the base of a significant upward move and indicate zones where buying interest is strong. When the price revisits these areas, it often finds support, making them potential entry points for long trades.
Bearish Order Blocks
Conversely, these are located at the top of significant downward moves and signal strong selling interest. These zones often act as resistance when revisited, making them strategic points for short trades.
Imbalances
Imbalances, or fair value gaps (FVGs), are price regions where the market has moved too quickly, creating a significant disparity between the number of long and short trades. These gaps often occur due to high volatility and indicate areas where the market might revisit to "fill" the gap, thereby achieving fair value.
In other words, when a price rapidly moves in one direction, it leaves behind an area with little to no trading activity. The market often returns to these imbalanced zones to facilitate proper price discovery and liquidity.
How to Use the ICT Turtle Soup Strategy
Here's a detailed breakdown of how traders use the ICT Turtle Soup pattern.
Establishing a Bias
Traders begin by analysing the higher timeframe trend, such as the daily or weekly charts, to establish a market bias. This analysis helps determine whether the market is predominantly bullish or bearish. Identifying this trend is crucial as it guides where to look for potential Turtle Soup setups.
For instance, the example above shows AUDUSD initially moving down after a bullish movement off-screen. It eventually breaks above the lower high, indicating that the higher timeframe trend may now be bullish. Similarly, the shorter-term downtrend beginning from mid-May also saw a new high, meaning a trader may want to look for long positions.
Identifying Internal Liquidity
Once the higher timeframe trend is established, traders look for a move counter to that higher timeframe trend. In the example shown, this would be a downtrend counter to the bullish structure break. They mark levels of internal liquidity; in a bullish leg, these would be below swing lows and vice versa. These areas are likely to attract stop-loss orders.
Looking for Liquidity Taps
The next step involves waiting for these internal liquidity areas to be tapped. This typically happens when the price briefly breaks through a support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before quickly reversing direction.
Ideally, the price should tap into the same area or order block where the internal liquidity formed and then exhibit a quick reversal, often leaving just a small wick. This movement indicates a liquidity grab, where large players have taken out stops to facilitate their own orders.
Lower Timeframe Confirmation
After identifying a liquidity grab beyond this internal liquidity level, traders look for an entry. On a lower timeframe, they look for a similar pattern: internal liquidity being run and a subsequent break of structure in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. This involves price retracing back inside the range to fill an imbalance and meet an order block, which provides a precise entry point.
Executing the Trade
Once these conditions are met, traders typically enter the market. Specifically, they’ll often leave a limit order at an order block to trade in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. They place a stop loss just beyond the liquidity grab, either above the recent high for a short trade or below the recent low for a long trade. Profit targets are often set at key liquidity levels, such as previous highs or lows, where the market is likely to encounter significant activity.
Potential Advantages and Limitations
The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a trading strategy with several potential benefits and drawbacks.
Advantages
- Precision: Allows for precise entry points by identifying false breakouts and liquidity grabs.
- Adaptability: Effective across different timeframes and market conditions, including ranging and trending markets.
- Risk Management: Built-in risk management by placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab points.
Limitations
- Complexity: Requires a deep understanding of market structure, liquidity, and order flow, making it challenging for less experienced traders.
- Market Conditions: Less effective in highly volatile or illiquid markets where false signals are more common.
- Time-Consuming: Demands continuous monitoring of multiple timeframes to identify valid setups, which can be time-intensive.
The Bottom Line
The ICT Turtle Soup pattern offers traders a powerful tool to identify and exploit false breakouts in the market. By understanding its components and applying the strategy effectively, traders can potentially enhance their trading performance. To put this strategy into practice, consider opening an FXOpen account, a reliable broker that provides the necessary tools and resources for trading.
FAQs
What Is ICT Turtle Soup in Trading?
ICT Turtle Soup is a trading pattern that exploits false breakouts. It identifies potential reversals when the price briefly moves beyond a key support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before reversing direction. This strategy aims to take advantage of these liquidity grabs by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction.
How to Identify ICT Turtle Soup Conditions?
To identify the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, traders analyse higher timeframe trends to establish market bias. They then look for counter-trend moves and mark internal liquidity areas. The pattern is identified when the price taps these liquidity zones and reverses quickly, often leaving a small wick. This signals a liquidity grab and potential trade setup in the direction of the higher timeframe trend.
How to Use the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern?
Using the ICT Turtle Soup pattern involves several steps. First, traders establish a market bias based on higher timeframe analysis. Then, they look for liquidity grabs at marked internal liquidity areas, indicating false breakouts. The next step is to confirm the setup on a lower timeframe by observing a similar liquidity grab and structure break. Lastly, they enter trades in the direction of the higher timeframe trend, placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab and targeting key liquidity levels for profit-taking.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Profitable SMC Smart MoneyConcept Strategy Explained
I will teach you how to trade liquidity grab, a trap, inducement, order block and imbalance.
I will share with you my Smart Money Concept strategy for trading forex & gold.
We will study a real SMC trading setup that I took on a live stream with my students.
Trend Analysis With Structure Mapping
The first step in our trading strategy will be the analysis of a market trend on a daily time frame with structure mapping.
Analyzing GBPNZD on a daily time frame, we can see that the conditions for a bullish trend are met.
Liquidity Zones Analysis
The second step will be to find liquidity - supply and demand zones on a daily time frame.
According to our rules, here are 3 liquidity zones that I spotted on GBPNZD. We see 2 demand zones and 1 supply zone.
Test of Liquidity Zone
The third step will be to wait for a test of a liquidity zone.
And on that step, we should remember an important rule:
We will wait only for a test of a liquidity zone that ALIGN with the market trend.
It means that we will wait for a test of a demand zone in a bullish trend.
We will wait for a test of a supply zone in a bearish trend.
The only demand zones that meets these criteria on GBPNZD is Demand Zone 1.
It aligns with a bullish trend.
We don't consider Demand Zone 2, because a bearish violation of a Demand Zone 1 will be a Change of Character and a violation of a bearish trend.
And here is how a test of a liquidity zone should look like. The price should simply reach that.
Liquidity Grab & Imbalance
After we identified a test of a significant liquidity zone that aligns with a market trend, we will start analyzing lower time frames.
We will look for a liquidity grab, order block and imbalance on 4H and 1H time frames.
Here is a liquidity grab that is confirmed by a bullish imbalance.
We see a false violation of a liquidity zone, followed by a high momentum bullish candle.
It will be our strong bullish signal.
Order Block Zone
In order to identify the entry point, the next step will be to identify the order block zone.
According to our rules, here is the order block zone on a 4H time frame.
Entry Level
Our entry level will be the level of the upper boundary of the order block zone.
Here is such a level on GBPNZD.
A buy limit order should be set on that level.
Please, note that in that particular case we don't need a 1H time frame analysis, because we have a confirmation signal on a 4H time frame. We will analyse an hourly time frame only when THERE IS NO SIGNAL on a 4H time frame.
Stop Loss & Take Profit
Safe stop loss should be below the lowest low of a bearish movement.
To safely calculate a stop loss in pips for the trade, simply take 0.5 ATR - Average True Range.
For Average True Range indicator , take the default settings - 14 length.
Here is a safe stop loss level on GBPNZD. ATR is 55 pips. Our stop loss for the trade is 28 pips.
Take profit for the trade will be based on the closest 4H liquidity - supply zone.
That is the closest supply zone that I spotted on GBPNZD on a 4H time frame.
Your target level should be a couple of pips below a supply zone.
Look how perfectly the market reached the target!
As you can see, that trading strategy is quite complex and combines different important elements. But what I like about this SMC trading strategy is that it truly makes sense.
The intentions of Smart Money are crystal clear here and the trade execution rules are straight forward.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Vbl crash with Low volume can give reversal When a stock (or any tradable asset) experiences a volume breakout level crash but does so with low trading volume, it can often signal a potential reversal rather than further downside movement.
Here’s why:
1. Weak Commitment: A price break below a significant support level on low volume indicates there isn't strong conviction among market participants. In other words, sellers are not aggressively dumping shares, and buyers are likely cautious. This implies the move could lack sustainability.
2. Reversal Potential: Low-volume breakdowns often reflect temporary price movement caused by minor selling pressure, rather than a trend-defining event. If demand re-emerges or larger buyers enter the market at these lower prices, the stock may rebound above the support, triggering a reversal.
3. Significance of Support: Support levels act as zones where buying interest historically outpaces selling pressure. A false breakdown (especially on low volume) below such a level can prompt a "trap," where sellers expecting further decline are forced to cover when prices rebound, amplifying the reversal.
Key Considerations:
Volume Analysis: Always compare the volume during the support breach to the average volume. A convincing breakdown requires high volume to confirm significant selling pressure.
Catalysts: Check for underlying reasons, such as news, sector performance, or earnings reports, which could explain low-volume moves.
Price Action Afterward: Watch for a reversal candle pattern (like hammer or engulfing candle) at the breached level to validate reversal potential.
To summarize: A crash below support on low volume often indicates an unreliable breakdown and increases the probability of a reversal, especially if significant buyers step in at the lower price zone.
BTC CYCLE EXPLAINED🔄 THE BITCOIN-ALTCOIN CYCLE EXPLAINED 🔄
In the crypto market, a well-known pattern plays out:
When Bitcoin rises 📈, altcoins like Ethereum, Cardano, and Solana tend to struggle 📉.
When Bitcoin consolidates or corrects 📉, altcoins often rally 🚀.
Why does this happen?
1. 💪 Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin (BTC) leads the market, setting the tone for all crypto movements.
2. 🛡️ Risk-Off Sentiment: During Bitcoin’s bullish runs, traders shift funds into BTC as a safer option.
3. 🔄 Altcoin Rotation: When BTC slows, investors look to altcoins for higher returns, driving their prices up.
🚨 The Big Question: Are we on the verge of another altcoin season? 🤔
📊 Keep watching Bitcoin’s movement—it might be signaling the next big altcoin breakout.
🔥 Stay tuned, the cycle could be heating up! 🚀
The Next Bubble: Hunting for Sci-Fi Hype in Emerging MarketsExploring potential emerging market bubbles with a focus on futuristic and lesser-known technologies.
In the ever-evolving landscape of investment opportunities, savvy investors are always looking for the next big wave. This potential market bubble could transform obscure technologies into astronomical valuations. While traditional industries like banking and oil remain predictable, the most exciting investment frontiers lie in science fiction-adjacent technologies that most people can barely comprehend.
Quantum Computing: The Invisible Revolution
Quantum computing represents a prime candidate for a potential market bubble. Most people struggle to understand how quantum computers work, which makes them perfect for speculative investment. Companies like IBM, Google, and several stealth startups are developing quantum technologies that seem more like science fiction than reality.
The allure is simple: quantum computers promise to solve complex problems that classical computers can't handle. From cryptography to drug discovery, the potential applications are mind-bending. As public understanding remains limited, this knowledge gap creates fertile ground for massive hype and potentially inflated valuations.
Synthetic Biology: Programming Life Itself
Another frontier that screams "future bubble" is synthetic biology. Imagine companies that can program biological systems, design custom organisms, or create entirely new forms of life. Startups in this space are working on everything from lab-grown meat to engineered microorganisms that can clean up environmental pollution.
The complexity of synthetic biology means most investors won't understand the underlying technology, creating perfect conditions for a speculative frenzy. Companies like Ginkgo Bioworks are already pushing the boundaries of what seems possible, blurring the lines between engineering and biology.
Space Resource Extraction: The Final Economic Frontier
While space tourism gets most of the headlines, the real potential bubble might be in space resource extraction. Companies are developing technologies to mine asteroids, harvest helium-3 from the moon, or extract rare minerals from extraterrestrial sources. These ventures sound like plot points from a science fiction novel but are becoming serious investment considerations.
The total addressable market is astronomical, and the technological challenges are so complex that they create a perfect environment for speculative investment. Most people can't comprehend the engineering required, which means wild narratives can drive market sentiment.
Neuromorphic Computing: Brains in Silicon
Neuromorphic computing represents another potential bubble zone. These are computer systems designed to mimic the human brain's neural structures, promising revolutionary approaches to artificial intelligence and machine learning. Companies developing neuromorphic chips and systems are creating technologies that seem more like sentient machines from a William Gibson novel than traditional computing.
The mystique of creating "brain-like" computers that can learn and adapt independently is a powerful narrative for investors seeking the next transformative technology.
Key Bubble Indicators
When hunting for potential market bubbles in sci-fi-adjacent technologies, look for these red flags:
- Technological complexity that defies easy explanation
- Massive potential market size with minimal current revenue
- High-profile founders with grandiose visions
- Media coverage that sounds more like science fiction than economic analysis
- Significant venture capital interest despite unclear monetization paths
Investor Caution: The Thin Line Between Innovation and Illusion
While these technologies represent exciting investment frontiers, they also embody significant risks. Not every sci-fi-like technology will become the next big bubble. Careful research, understanding technological feasibility, and avoiding pure hype is crucial.
The most successful investors will be those who can distinguish between genuine technological breakthroughs and elaborate narratives designed to attract speculative capital.
Remember: Today's impossible dream could be tomorrow's trillion-dollar market—or next year's cautionary tale.
#RGTI: is up +650% in less than 2 months since I published the analysis!
Trading with Multiple Time Frames: A Balanced ApproachWhy Use Multiple Time Frames ?
In trading, understanding flow and target areas across different time frames is essential for precision. Each time frame provides a unique insight:
Higher Time Frame (HTP) : Establishes the direction and target areas.
Focal Time Frame : Serves as your primary or main frame of focus for trading decisions.
Lower Time Frame (LTP) : Confirms the HTP’s direction and offers entry/exit points.
Examples: If you are position trading (holding longer than 1 month) you focal time frame is the monthly, the weekly is the time frame that offers entry/exits and the Quarterly is the time frame that establishes the direction and target areas. If you are swing trading (holding longer than 1 week) then you focal time frame is the weekly, LTP is the daily for entry/exists and HTP is the monthly. If you trade intraday then HTP is the hourly, focal is 15min and LTP is the 5min.
🔎 Key Principles for Multi-Time Frame Analysis
HTP Determines the Flow:
Strong resistance or support on the higher time frame drives the market flow.
Example: If HTP resistance is strong, the LTP will typically trend downward
LTP Monitors the Setup:
Use lower time frames to observe and confirm HTP predictions.
Lower time frame bars should progressively move away from strong HTP levels
Focus on Nearby and Further Out Areas:
Nearby areas provide short-term strength or weakness.
If a nearby area breaks, targets shift to further-out energy zones
🧩 Example Strategy: Integrating Time Frames
Step 1: Identify a strong support/resistance area on the HTP (e.g., Weekly Chart).
Step 2: Use the focal time frame (e.g., Daily Chart) to monitor for trend setups.
Step 3: Zoom into the LTP (e.g., Hourly Chart) to:
Confirm the setup.
Look for price reactions and ideal entry points.
Step 4: Set targets based on the HTP structure, while managing risk on the LTP.
🎯 Tips for Target Setting
Targets are often defined where price terminates energy (e.g., HTP resistance/support levels).
Monitor flow: If LTP flow aligns with HTP direction, the trade is on track.
If nearby energy breaks, shift your target to the next further-out area
🚀 Final Thoughts
The HTP shows the big picture; the LTP provides execution clarity.
Always let the HTP guide you, and the LTP confirm your trade entries/exits.
Remember: “Strength is strength until proven otherwise.”
By combining multiple time frames, traders can trade confidently, anticipate targets, and stay in sync with the market flow.
Mastering the German 40 Index: A Comprehensive Trading Strategy 👀👉 In this detailed video, I examine the complexities of trading the German 40 Index (DAX), sharing my personal trading plan and strategies aimed at identifying lucrative trade opportunities. Most importantly, my goal is to provide you with the essential tools to effectively navigate the indices markets. 📈✨
KEY HIGHLIGHTS:
✅ Trading Strategy Overview: I outline a structured approach to planning trades and identifying optimal trading opportunities.
✅ Technical Analysis Techniques: We explore concepts such as Wyckoff Theory and ICT (Inner Circle Trader) principles, emphasizing their application in real-world trading scenarios.
✅ Timeframe Analysis: The video guides you through analyzing higher timeframes to inform lower timeframe entries, ensuring a well-rounded trading strategy.
✅ Entry Points & Risk Management: Learn how to pinpoint entry points, set effective stop-loss orders, and establish profit targets to maximize your trading success. 🎯
✅ TradingView Features: I highlight essential features of TradingView, showcasing two advanced indicators: the Volume Profile and VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), which are crucial for intraday analysis and understanding market trends. 📊
🔔 Disclaimer: Trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct thorough research and consider your financial situation before engaging in trading activities.
Join me on this journey to enhance your trading skills and gain valuable insights into the German 40 Index! Don't forget to comment and if you found the info of value, giving this post a BOOST would be awesome! 🙏
Reading Price Action to Tell a Chart's (Liquidity) StoryUsing Domino's Pizza in this case I want to show you how simple and practical it is to find important levels and to understand why price is doing what it's doing at a certain level. If we can map out where we are going to have to put a fight, and know why we are going to put up a fight (i.e. buyers or sellers, who needs what to win the fight, who is building liquidity and in control on a certain time frame) --> Then there is no reason why we shouldn't be able to identify solid trade opportunities and take them when they're given. If we are wrong on an analysis (i.e. we lose money on the trade), it's either that you're executing trades on a different time frame than your analysis is telling you to or there is something about your analysis that is wrong or not effective enough.
DPZ Analysis coming next..
Happy Trading :)
Mastering RSI: The Complete and CORRECT Way to Trade ItThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most popular and widely used indicators in trading.
Despite its prevalence, many traders misuse it or are unaware of its full potential. RSI isn't just about identifying overbought and oversold conditions; when applied correctly, it becomes a robust tool for trend confirmation, reversals, momentum acceleration, and much more.
This guide explores how to unlock the full power of RSI and avoid common pitfalls.
What Is RSI?
Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price changes over a specified period. It oscillates between 0 and 100, with the following traditional zones:
Above 70: Indicates overbought conditions, where the price may reverse or consolidate.
Below 30: Indicates oversold conditions, where the price may rebound or reverse upward.
However, it’s important to note that RSI above 70 or below 30 can sometimes indicate trend acceleration rather than an immediate reversal—especially in strong trending markets, discussed in #6
The real reversal signal comes after RSI crosses back below 70 (for overbought) or back above 30 (for oversold). Understanding this distinction is critical to using RSI effectively.
1. Overbought and Oversold Conditions
The classic use of RSI involves identifying overbought and oversold levels:
Overbought: RSI rises above 70 and then drops back below it, signaling potential selling pressure.
Oversold: RSI falls below 30 and then moves back above it, indicating potential buying interest.
These signals are more effective when combined with tools like support/resistance levels or trendlines.
2. Centerline Crossover
The 50-level on RSI is a reliable trend indicator:
Above 50: Bullish momentum dominates.
Below 50: Bearish momentum dominates.
Use these crossovers to confirm trends:
Enter long trades when RSI is above 50.
Enter short trades when RSI is below 50.
3. Divergences
Divergences between RSI and price can signal potential trend reversals:
Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows, but RSI forms higher lows.
Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs, but RSI forms lower highs.
These divergences highlight weakening momentum and often precede reversals.
4. RSI Patterns
RSI can form recognizable chart patterns, such as triangles, head-and-shoulders, or double tops/bottoms. These patterns often precede price moves:
Triangles: A breakout on RSI often signals a strong price move.
Double Tops : A topping pattern on RSI warns of potential price declines.
5. Failure Swings
Failure swings occur when RSI enters an extreme zone (above 70 or below 30) but fails to sustain momentum and reverses. This is a strong reversal signal and can precede significant price moves:
Bullish Failure Swing:
RSI dips below 30.
It rises but dips again, staying above 30.
RSI breaks its previous high, signaling a bullish reversal.
Bearish Failure Swing:
RSI rises above 70.
It falls but rises again, staying below 70.
RSI breaks its previous low, signaling a bearish reversal.
How to trade it:
For a bullish failure swing, enter long when RSI confirms the higher low and breaks above the previous swing high.
For a bearish failure swing, enter short when RSI confirms the lower high and breaks below the previous swing low.
6. Momentum Acceleration Strategy
While RSI is traditionally used for spotting overbought and oversold conditions, it can also identify momentum acceleration during strong trends:
Above 70: In strong uptrends, when RSI rises above 70 and stays there, it signals upward acceleration, indicating buyers are in control.
Below 30: In strong downtrends, when RSI dips below 30 and stays there, it signals downward acceleration, with sellers driving the market lower.
How to trade it:
In uptrends, treat RSI staying above 70 as a sign of strength and look for pullbacks to enter long positions.
In downtrends, use brief rebounds as opportunities to short while RSI remains below 30.
7. Multi-Timeframe Strategy
Analyzing RSI across multiple timeframes enhances accuracy:
Use the higher timeframe (e.g., daily) to identify the overall trend.
Use the lower timeframe (e.g., 1-hour) to time trade entries.
Example:
If RSI on the daily chart is above 50 (bullish trend), look for hourly RSI dips below 30 to enter long trades.
If RSI on the daily chart is below 50 (bearish trend), wait for hourly RSI to reach overbought levels above 70 to short.
Tips for Advanced RSI Use:
Adjust RSI Settings: Shorter periods (e.g., 7) make RSI more sensitive, while longer periods (e.g., 21) smooth out signals for longer-term trends.
Combine RSI with Other Tools: Use RSI alongside moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, or Candlesticks.
Risk Management: Always pair RSI signals with a stop-loss strategy to manage risk effectively.
PRO TIP: As I like to say "Trade the price, not the indicator."
Use RSI as a confirmation tool, not the main signal.
For example, a price reversal from resistance or a bullish engulfing candle becomes far more reliable when backed by RSI signals.
Conclusion
RSI is far more versatile than many traders realize. While it’s traditionally used for identifying overbought and oversold levels, strategies like momentum acceleration and failure swings add depth to its utility. By combining RSI with centerline crossovers, divergences, multi-timeframe analysis, and chart patterns, traders can pinpoint entries, reversals, and momentum shifts with more precision and trade more confidently.
Key Takeaways:
- RSI staying above 70 or below 30 in trends signals momentum acceleration.
- Failure swings offer reliable reversal signals when RSI breaks key levels.
- Combining RSI strategies with other tools and proper risk management leads to more confidence
Cup & Handle Pattern TutorialA cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern that signals a potential upward price movement after a consolidation period. Here's a breakdown of its key components:
Cup: The pattern starts with a downward move in price, forming a rounded bottom (the "cup"). The price then rallies back up to the level where it began, creating a U-shape.
Handle: After the cup forms, the price pulls back downward in a smaller, rounded formation (the "handle"). This handle is typically a consolidation period before the price resumes its upward trend.
Win Rate
The cup and handle pattern is known for its high reliability and success rate. Research shows that it has a 95% success rate in bull markets and an average profit of around 54%. However, it's important to follow strict trading rules to achieve these results
Forecasting Swing Levels in a Trend Using Elliot WaveHere's a simple template that can help you to draw good fib extensions off different useful swings when the is a possible Elliot wave pattern.
This should help to flag up the high probability areas in a nice expression of the Elliot pattern and also give you warning levels to watch along the way in case the nice simple pattern fails.
We're going to focus on two legs. There's a few more you can draw fibs from and have useful repeating ratios but to keep it simple I'm just going to focus on the two high value ones here.
Working left to right on the chart notes:
When we know waves 4-5 we can use it for wave C
An extension fib drawn from low to high of the 4-5 swing (you'd know this was in when wave A breaks the trend) is very useful for determining the levels the market is likely to make a low and also the level which a capitulation event is likely.
The 1.61 extension is the important level here. It can hold in a simple wave 4 spike out correction. If it breaks, usually price capitulates to at least the 2.20. More commonly the 2.61 in the event we're making a low (You'll usually find this is a 76 retracement of 1-5 also).
In the first instance of a 4-5 fib, I've shown a 1.61 break. Bit of a dummy rally around the 1.61 (very common) and then the capitulation to the lower fibs. Which is more common in the first leg of a trend. Deep retracements are common in trend reversals.
When we know 1-2 we can use it for levels for wave 3
When we know where waves 1-2 should be in our count we can draw an extension fib high to low on this. We can define waves 1-2 as being in by the breaking of the first wave 5 high. It's also possible to pre-emptively draw these fibs when you think we're at the end of wave C. Obviously these need checked and adjusted if things change.
There are four main fib levels we use in this swing. 1.27, 1.61, 2.20 and 2.61.
1.27 and 1.61 levels here are expected to have pullbacks or soft stalls but ultimately break. They're levels to be careful. If it will fail these are hot spots for it, but once we have some reaction around 1.27 - 1.61 and a valid breakout we trend consistently to 2.20. That usually completes wave 3 of the trend.
From 2.20 we'll get chop and some false reversals. This is wave 4. It'll go on for a while and be full of false breakouts. Every time something looks like it's happening, it's not. Eventually there's a false bear breakout and then a big spike to the 2.61. This completes waves 4-5.
Now we're back to where we started. Once we know waves 4-5, these help with levels for C.
Since we now are inside a developing trend rather than in the first leg of it, the retracement is likely to be shallower. Stopping a little past the 1.61. With the trading under there mainly being a wick. There's a big bounce from the 1.61. A pullback (usually to the 1.27) and then there's a break of the high.
Once we have seen those legs, then we have our new 1-2 legs and we can use these to forecast where we expect the nice trending action of C. The soft resistance levels along the way that might turn the market if the Elliot thesis is incorrect and the target levels we know to look for the bigger crash correction.
For so long as the Elliot cycle plays this, these things just keep rolling into each other and you can make pretty good forecasts of the trend levels.
