Understanding Bullish Engulfing Candlestick PatternThe Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern is a popular price action signal used by traders to identify potential trend reversals in the market. If you're keen on mastering price action trading, understanding this pattern is essential. This guide will take you from the basics of the pattern to advanced insights, with easy-to-understand explanations to help you become more confident in your trading decisions.
What is a Bullish Engulfing Candlestick?
A bullish engulfing candlestick is a two-candle pattern that signals a potential reversal in a bearish trend. The pattern consists of a smaller bearish (red) candle followed by a larger bullish (green) candle that completely engulfs the previous one. This indicates that the buying pressure has overwhelmed the sellers, suggesting a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Key Features of the Bullish Engulfing Pattern
Here’s a breakdown of the key characteristics:
Number of Candles: The pattern consists of two candles.
First Candle: A bearish candle, typically red, showing a decline in price.
Second Candle: A bullish candle, typically green, that completely engulfs the previous bearish candle, including its wicks.
Prior Trend: A bearish trend must precede the pattern to validate it as a potential reversal signal.
Prediction: A potential shift from bearish to bullish trend.
The Anatomy of a Bullish Engulfing Pattern
To fully grasp this pattern, let's break down the structure:
The first candle in the pattern is a small bearish candle, indicating the continuation of a downtrend.
The second candle is a large bullish candle that opens lower than the previous close and closes higher than the previous high, completely engulfing it. This suggests a strong buying momentum.
Why Do Bullish Engulfing Patterns Work?
A bullish engulfing pattern is significant because it reflects a shift in market sentiment. Here’s why:
Seller Exhaustion: The first candle shows a bearish trend, indicating seller dominance. When the second candle engulfs it, it suggests that sellers are losing control.
Buyer Strength: The second candle’s larger body signals strong buying interest, indicating a shift in market control from sellers to buyers.
Market Psychology: A bullish engulfing pattern indicates that traders are willing to buy at higher prices, leading to increased bullish momentum.
Why a Pin Bar Can Be an Engulfing Pattern
A common observation among experienced traders is that a pin bar on a higher timeframe can appear as a bullish engulfing pattern on a lower timeframe. This happens because:
A pin bar shows a strong rejection of lower prices, which on a lower timeframe looks like a large bullish candle engulfing smaller bearish candles.
This highlights the importance of multi-timeframe analysis. Understanding how patterns form on different timeframes gives a more holistic view of market dynamics.
Trend Analysis
How to Read a Forex Quote: Bid, Ask, and Spread ExplainedSo, you’ve decided to jump into the forex markets and stumbled upon your first quote. Now you're staring at numbers like EUR/USD 1.0987/1.0990, wondering what these flashing digits mean. Don’t worry—we’ve all been there. Let’s break it down, TradingView style, and get you up to speed on forex quotes, bid-ask spreads, and why these tiny decimal points matter more than you might think.
The Basics: What’s a Forex Quote?
At its core, a forex quote tells you the exchange rate between two currencies. Think of it like a price tag for the money you want to buy or sell. In any quote, you’ve got two currencies: the base currency and the quote currency. For example, in EUR/USD , the euro (EUR) is the base currency, and the US dollar (USD) is the quote currency. This quote tells you how many US dollars it costs to buy one euro.
Now the fun part: You’ll notice two prices next to that quote—the bid and the ask.
Bid vs. Ask: What’s the Difference?
When you see a forex quote like EUR/USD 1.0987/1.0990, you’re actually looking at two prices:
Bid Price (1.0987): This is the price a buyer (broker or trader) is willing to pay for the base currency. In simpler terms, this is the price you sell at.
Ask Price (1.0990): This is the price the seller (broker or trader) is willing to sell you the base currency for. In other words, this is the price you buy at.
So, if you’re buying EUR/USD , you’ll pay the ask price (1.0990), and if you’re selling, you’ll receive the bid price (1.0987). Notice how the ask is always higher than the bid? That’s where brokers make their money. Which brings us to…
The Spread: The Broker’s Cut
The spread is the difference between the bid and the ask. In this case, it’s 1.0990 - 1.0987 = 0.0003 or 3 pips (percentage in points). Think of the spread as the broker’s fee for facilitating the trade, essentially acting as the middleman. The tighter the spread, the less you’re paying to execute a trade.
For major currency pairs like EUR/USD , the spread is often pretty small (like 1-3 pips), but for exotic pairs (think USD/ZAR or USD/TRY ), spreads can get wider than your Uncle Bob’s waistband after Thanksgiving dinner.
Why the Spread Matters for Traders
Here’s the thing: spreads eat into your profits. Whether you’re a day trader or holding a longer-term position, the spread is something you need to bake into your strategy.
Scalpers and day traders need tight spreads. If you’re making a bunch of small, quick trades throughout the day, every pip counts. Wide spreads can kill your profit margins faster than a rogue tweet from Elon Musk.
Swing traders and position traders are less sensitive to spreads. If you’re in it for the long haul, a few pips won’t make or break your trade. But it’s still something to keep an eye on, especially when trading less liquid currency pairs.
Market Conditions and Spreads
Spreads aren’t fixed — ideally, they should be floating around in real-time dealmaking. They widen and tighten based on market conditions. During high volatility (like, say, a major economic announcement or a surprise central bank rate cut), spreads can widen. Conversely, during quiet market hours, spreads tend to tighten.
To avoid getting fleeced by wide spreads, keep an eye on liquidity. Major pairs like EUR/USD , GBP/USD , or USD/JPY have higher liquidity, meaning tighter spreads. Exotic pairs? Not so much. You’ll pay more to play in the less popular markets.
How to Use the Bid-Ask Spread to Your Advantage
Here’s a pro tip: If you’re in a tight spread market, like EUR/USD during peak trading hours, you can place tighter stop-loss and take-profit orders, maximizing your profits with minimal slippage. In volatile markets with wider spreads, give yourself more breathing room, or wait until liquidity returns.
How TradingView Does It
On TradingView, forex pairs are displayed with a single price quote rather than separate bid and ask prices. This single price quote represents the midpoint between the bid and the ask. TradingView uses this midpoint, also called the last trade price , to better display price flow and make it simpler to analyze price trends without the fluctuation that would come from constantly updating bid and ask prices.
For traders using TradingView to monitor forex prices, this single price quote allows them to focus more on price movements and technical analysis rather than factoring in the spread between bid and ask, which as we mentioned, is available with brokers since it's their bread and butter. So factor this in.
The Bottom Line
Going expert-level at bid, ask, and spread isn’t just forex surviving — it’s forex thriving. These tiny details can be the difference between making bank or watching your profits trickle away. Always factor in the spread when setting up trades, especially if you're trading lower-volume currency pairs or during off-hours.
Ready to flex your new bid-ask spread skills? And win some prizes at the same time? Join our paper trading competition "The Leap" , starting November 1, and show everyone what you've got. $25,000 are up for grabs.
BIG POST! | How To Beat SP500?
S&P 500 Performance: +35% since 2022.
My Selected Portfolio Performance: +62%, with an 82% hit rate.
Top Performing Stocks: NVDA (+735%), ANET (+343%), META (+209%), and more.
Technical Analysis Tools Used: Price action, trendlines, Fibonacci levels, round numbers, and more.
It’s been nearly three years since I posted my analysis of S&P 500 stocks on February 23, 2022. Back then, I reviewed all 500 stocks, applied some quick technical analysis, and identified 75 stocks that stood out for me. Importantly, I relied solely on technical analysis to make my picks. Fast forward to today, and the results speak for themselves. Most of these selections have significantly outperformed the broader market, proving the power and importance of technical analysis.
While many investors rely solely on fundamentals, technical analysis brings a dynamic edge that’s often underestimated. By focusing on price action and market behavior, technical analysis allows us to spot opportunities that others might miss, especially it gives a massive psychological edge while the markets are making corrections. The market doesn't care what you know, the market cares what you do!
Here’s what I used for my analysis:
It's kind of pure price action - previous yearly highs, trendlines, a 50% retracement from the top, round numbers, Fibonacci levels, equal waves, and channel projections. For breakout trades, determined strong and waited for confirmation before pulling the trigger.
The Results
While the S&P 500 has gained around 35% over this period , my selected stocks from the same list have made +62%! Out of the 75 stocks I picked, 67 have hit my target zones and 54 are currently in the green. That’s an 82% hit rate, and for me, that’s a good number!
Now, for those who favor fundamental analysis, don’t get me wrong, it has its place. But remember, fundamentals tell you what to buy, while technicals tell you when to buy - to be a perfect investor, you need them both. You could hold a fundamentally strong stock for years, waiting for it to catch up to its "true value," while a technical analyst might ride multiple trends and capture far superior returns during that same time. Also, the opposite can happen – you may see a great technical setup, but if the fundamental factors are against it, you could end up with your money stuck in a bad trade.
To put these ideas in perspective, starting with a simulated portfolio of $76,000, where each stock had an equal investment of around $1,000–$1,100, the portfolio is now worth around $124,000. The results are based on buying at marked zones and holding until today. I calculated entries from the middle of the target zone, as it’s a more realistic and optimal approach compared to aiming for perfect lows (which, frankly, feels a bit scammy) to get much(!) higher returns. This method reflects real-world trading.
Before we dive in, here are the current Top 5 stocks from My Picks:
NVDA: +735%
ANET: +343%
TT: +227%
META: +209%
LEN: +164%
These numbers demonstrate the effectiveness of a solid technical strategy. Many say it's tough to beat the market with individual stock picks, but these results show it’s not just possible, it’s absolutely achievable with the right tools and approach.
Now, let's dive into the charts!
1. Apple (AAPL) - a load-it-up type of setup has worked out nicely. Used previously worked resistance levels. If the stocks performing well and the market cap is big enough then these levels can help you to get on board.
Current profit 65%
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2. Adobe (ADBE) - came down sharply, but the price reached the optimal area and reversed.
Current profi 38%.
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3. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - round number, strong resistance level becomes support and the climb can continue.
Current profit 101%
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4. Amazon (AMZN) - came down from high prices to the marked levels and those who were patient enough got rewarded nicely.
Current profit 66%
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5. Arista Networks (ANET) - retest of the round nr. worked perfectly, as a momentum price level, after the strong breakout.
Current profit 343%
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6. Aptiv PLC (APTV): Came down quite sharply and it will take some time to start growing from here, if at all. The setup was quite solid but probably fundamentals got weaker after the all-time high.
Current loss -24%
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7. American Express (AXP) - firstly the round nr. 200 worked as a strong resistance level. Another example is to avoid buying if the stock price approaches bigger round numbers the first time. Came to a previous resistance level and rejection from there…
Current profit 104%
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8. Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO) - in general I like the price action, kind of smoothly to the optimal zone. It might take some time to start growing from here but also fundamentals need to look over.
Current loss 6%
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9. BlackRock (BLK) - kind of flawless. All criteria are in place and worked perfectly.
Current profit 81%
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10. Ball Corporation (BALL) - a perfect example of why you should wait for a breakout to get a confirmed move. No trade.
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11) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Buy the dip. Again, as Apple, a big and well-known company - all you need to do is to determine the round numbers, and small previous resistances that act as support levels, and you should be good.
Current avg. profit from two purchases 64%
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12) Cardinal Health (CAH) - the retest isn't as deep as wanted but still a confirmed breakout and rally afterward. Still, the bias was correct!
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13) Ceridian HCM Holding (DAY) - found support from the shown area but not much momentum.
Current profit 20%
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14) Charter Communications (CHTR) - technically speaking it is a quite good price action but kind of slow momentum from the shown area. Probably came too sharply and did not have enough previous yearly highs to support the fall.
Current loss -10%
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15) Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) - got liquidity from new lows, pumped up quickly, and is currently fairly solid.
Current profit 10%
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16) Cummins (CMI) - got rejected from 2028 and 2019 clear highs, fairly hot stock, and off it goes.
Current profit 80%
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17) Salesforce.com (CRM) - perfect. 50% drop, strong horizontal area, and mid-round nr did the work.
Current profit 83%
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18) Cisco Systems (CSCO) - worked and slow grind upwards can continue.
Current profit 30%
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19) Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - not in good shape imo. It has taken too much time and the majority of that is sideways movement. Again, came too sharply to the optimal entry area.
Current loss -16%
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20) Devon Energy (DVN) - inside the area and actually active atm. Still, now I’m seeing a bit deeper correction than shown.
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21) Electric Arts (EA) - 6 years of failed attempts to get a monthly close above $150 have ended here. It got it and we are ready to ride with it to the higher levels.
Current profit: kind of BE
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22) eBay (EBAY) - it took some time but again, worked nicely.
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23) Enphase Energy (ENPH) - got a breakout, got a retest, and did a ~76% rally after that! If you still hold it, as I do statistics, then…
Current loss -59%
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24) Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) - kind of worked but didn't reach. No trade.
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25) Meta Platforms (META) - the bottom rejection from the round number $100 is like a goddamn textbook :D At that time 160 and 200 were also a good area to enter. Here are several examples of the sharp falls/drops/declines - watch out for that, everything should come fairly smoothly. Still, it ended up nicely and we have a massive winner here...
Current profit 209%
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26) FedEx (FDX) - I love the outcome of this. Very solid price action and multiple criteria worked as they should. Perfect.
Current profit 60%
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27) First Republic Bank (FRC) - firstly got a solid 30 to 35% gain from the shown area but...we cannot fight with the fundamentals.
Current loss 99%
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28) General Motors (GM) - finally found some liquidity between strong areas and we are moving up.
Current profit 47%
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29) Alphabet (GOOG) - load it up 3.0, a good and strong company, and use every previous historical resistance level to jump in.
Current avg. profit after three different price level purchases 63%
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30) Genuine Parts (GPC) - coming and it looks solid.
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31) Goldman Sachs (GS) - really close one.
Current profit 86%
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32) Hormel Foods (HRL) - quite bad performance here. Two trades, two losses.
The current loss combined these two together is 35%
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33) Intel (INTC) - at first perfect area from where it found liquidity, peaked at 65%. Still, I make statistics if you still holding it then…
Current loss -21%
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34) Ingersoll Rand (IR) - beautiful!
Current profit 144%
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35) Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - the trendline, 50% drop, strong horizontal area. Ready, set, go!
Current profit 157%
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36) Johnson Controls International (JCI) - second rest of the area and then it started to move finally..
Current profit 55%
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37) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Buy the dip and we had only one dip :)
Current profit 13%
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38) CarMax (KMX) - the area is strong but not enough momentum in it so I take it as a weakness.
Current profit kind of BE
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39) Kroger Company (KR) - without that peak it is like walking on my lines
Current profit 15%
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40) Lennar Corp. (LEN) - strong resistance level becomes strong support. Beautiful!
Current profit 164%
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41) LKQ Corp. (LKQ) - just reached and it should be solid. Probably takes some time, not the strongest setup but still valid I would say.
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42) Southwest Airlines (LUV) - no breakout = no trade! Don’t cheat! Your money can be stuck forever but in the meantime, other stocks are flying as you also see in this post. If there is a solid resistance, wait for the breakout and possibly retest afterward! Currently only lower lows and lower highs.
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43) Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - channel inside a channel projection ;) TA its own goodness!
Current profit 70%
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44) Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) - worked!
Current profit 37%
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45) Altria Group (MO) - got a bit deeper retest, liquidity from lower areas, and probably a second try..
Currently kind of BE
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46) Moderna (MRNA) - "seasonal stocks", again too sharp and we are at a loss…
Current loss -37%
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47) Morgan Stanley (MS) - the first stop has worked, and got some nice movements.
Current profit 62%
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48) Microsoft (MSFT) - Load it up 4.0, buy the dip has worked again with well-known stock.
Three purchases and avg. return from these are amazing 70%
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49) Match Group (MTCH) - it happens..
Current loss -53%
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50) Netflix (NFLX) - almost the same as Meta. Came quite sharply but the recovery has been also quick. Another proof is that technical analysis should give you a psychological advantage to buy these big stocks on deep corrections.
Current profit 153%
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51) NRG Energy (NRG) - Perfect weekly close, perfect retest…
Current profit 90%
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52) NVIDIA (NVDA) lol - let this speak for itself!
Current profit 735%
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53) NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) - usually the sweet spot stays in the middle of the box, and also as I look over these ideas quite a few have started to climb from the first half of the box. Touched the previous highs.
Current profit 74%
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54) Pfizer (PFE) - actually quite ugly, TA is not the strongest. Probably results-oriented but yeah..
Current loss -25%
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55) PerkinElmer - “after” is EUR chart but you get the point.
Current profit 25%
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56) Pentair (PNR) - worked correctly, 50% drop combined with the horizontal area, easily recognizable, and the results speak for themselves.
Current profit 124%
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57) Public Storage (PSA) - again, previous yearly highs and the trendline did the job.
Current profit 36%
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58) PayPal (PYPL) - the area just lowers the speed of dropping, but slowly has started to recover.
Current loss -14%
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59) Qorvo (QRVO) - slow, no momentum.
Current profit 10%
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60) Rockwell Automation (ROK) - previous yearly high again, plus some confluence factors.
Current profit 32%
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61) Rollins (ROL) - after posting it didn’t come to retest the shown area. Being late for a couple of weeks. Worked but cannot count it in, the only thing I can count is that my bias was correct ;)
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62) Snap-On Incorporated (SNA) - same story!
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63) Seagate Technology (STX) - firstly it came there! Look how far it was, the technical levels are like magnets, the price needs to find some liquidity for further growth and these areas can offer it. I like this a lot, almost all the criteria are in place there.
Current profit 73%
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64) Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) - one of the textbook examples of how trendline, 50% drop, round nr. and strong horizontal price zone should match. Still a bit slow and it will decrease the changes a bit.
Kind of BE
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65) TE Connectivity (TEL) - came down, and got a rejection. “Simple” as that.
Current profit 37%
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66) Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) - mister Ranging Market.
Current profit 19%
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67) Trimble (TRMB) - finally has started to move a bit. Got liquidity from previous highs again and..
Current profit 45%
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68) Tesla (TSLA) - made a split. Have been successfully recommended many times after that here and there but two years ago we traded in these price levels and..
Current profit 19%
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69) Train Technologies (TT) - dipped the box and off it goes! Epic!
Current profit 227%
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70) Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) - I like this analysis a lot. Worked as a clockwork.
Current profit 60%
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71) United Rentals (URI) - WHYY you didn’t reach there :D Cannot count it.
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72) Waters Corp. (WAT) - came to the box as it should be slow and steady. As the plane came to the runway.
Current profit 41%
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73) Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) - another escaped winner. Didn’t come down to retest my retest area so, missed it.
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74) Xylem (XYL) - perfect trendline, good previous highs, 50% drop from the peak and..
Current profit 76%
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75) Autodesk (ADSK) - took a bit of time to start climbing but everything looks perfect. Nice trendline, 50% drop from ATH, previous yearly highs - quite clean!
Current profit 66%
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The strategies above show how useful price action, key levels, and psychology can be for investing. By spotting breakouts, and pullbacks, or focusing on round numbers and past highs, technical analysis helps give traders an edge in understanding the market.
Regards,
Vaido
"Trading Confluences Explained: Daily Highs, Engulfing Patterns,I break down the key confluences used by professional traders to make high-probability trades. Learn how to leverage Daily Highs/Lows, spot Pin Bars, recognize Engulfing Patterns, and understand Break of Structure to enhance your trading strategy. I'll also dive into Demand Zones, Fibonacci Retracements, and Trendline Analysis to show how these powerful tools can align for stronger trade entries.
Plus, I cover an essential aspect of the market – Stop Loss Hunts – and how to avoid being caught by them, while setting up your stop losses intelligently.
Stacey Burke ID Setup taken on WTI, and Silver reversal shortIn this video, I walk you through my entire thought process during today's trading session. You'll learn how I selected the pairs and executed three key trades:
- Silver Reversal Short
- WTI inside day , first red day, short
Inside days are a key best trade setup of Stacey Burke. Don't miss out on these valuable insights and tips!
For details on the Stacey Burke style trading approach see his site and playbook: https://stacey-burke-trading.thinkifi...
Working To Unlock The 3-6-9 Secrets Of The MarketRecently, there have been a lot of questions related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work.
I've often stated that these patterns are based on Gann, Tesla, and Fibonacci's price theory.
However, underlying all that is a core component related to the 3-6-9 (secrets of the universe) theory.
This video tries to introduce you to the concepts of the 3-6-9 theory and how it overlays with Gann, Tesla, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlesticks, and more.
My focus for the past 24+ months has been to unlock this theory's secrets and develop a practical use component (code) that attempts to provide very clear future trading/price predictions.
Spend some time watching this video. See what you think and open your mind to the concept that price moves through construction and destruction phases (likely based on the 3-6-9 concepts).
At the end of this video, I share some practical knowledge/examples showing why I believe the 3-6-9 theory is critical to unlocking the true secrets of market price action.
I may never be able to unlock all of it, but I'm dedicated to trying to unlock as much as I can within my lifetime.
This drives me to build code solutions and attempt to improve my skills.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Why Buying High and Selling Low Hurts Your PortfolioStock trading can be a pathway to wealth, but it requires a disciplined approach and a deep understanding of market dynamics. One of the most common errors traders make is buying high and selling low. This mistake, driven by emotions like greed and fear, occurs when traders buy stocks at peak prices due to hype, only to sell them later at a loss when panic sets in. This fundamental error not only undermines trading performance but also runs counter to the basic principle of buying low and selling high.
Understanding the Classic Mistake
"Buying high and selling low" refers to purchasing stocks at elevated prices, often driven by market euphoria, and selling them at lower prices out of panic during a downturn. For example, consider a trader who buys tech stocks during a strong rally, expecting continued gains. When the market corrects and prices drop, the trader panics and sells at a loss, embodying the classic mistake.
SPX Chart Daily with RSI Indicator
Psychological and Emotional Triggers
The root cause of buying high and selling low often lies in emotional and psychological triggers:
--Greed: This can push traders to chase rising stocks, leading to buying at inflated prices.
--Fear: Panic can set in during downturns, prompting traders to sell prematurely to avoid further losses.
--Cognitive Biases: FOMO (fear of missing out) and loss aversion further exacerbate this behavior, clouding judgment and increasing the likelihood of impulsive trading decisions.
Trading with divergences is a powerful tool for identifying potential reversals.
Why It’s a Problem
The impact of buying high and selling low can be devastating. Repeated losses from this mistake can erode capital, reduce recovery potential, and derail long-term financial goals.
--Market Timing Issues: Poor timing, especially in volatile markets, often leads to buying during uptrends and selling during downtrends.
--Profitability Impact: The repeated pattern of trading against the trend limits profitability, making it harder to grow wealth over time.
Identifying the Mistake in Practice
Recognizing this mistake early is crucial. Common scenarios include:
--Bull Markets: FOMO can drive traders to buy during rallies, often at inflated prices.
--Market Corrections: Panic selling during downturns leads to locking in losses, even if the stock rebounds soon after.
Warning Signs include overbought/oversold conditions, excessive market hype, and impulsive decisions based on emotional reactions.
Strategies to Avoid Buying High and Selling Low
To avoid this mistake, traders must employ a disciplined approach:
--Develop a Trading Plan: Set clear entry/exit criteria, define risk management rules, and commit to the plan even during volatility.
--Use Technical Analysis: Tools like Moving Averages and RSI help identify overbought/oversold conditions, guiding better entry/exit decisions.
RSI as Technical Tool on Nasdaq NQ1!
--Set Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels: These predefined levels limit potential losses and lock in gains, preventing emotional decisions.
Psychological and Behavioral Adjustments
Improving trading performance involves managing emotions and making rational decisions:
--Managing Emotions: Techniques like journaling and mindfulness can help traders remain calm and focused.
--Improving Decision-Making: Objective analysis, regular review of trades, and checklists can ensure systematic, data-driven decision-making.
Conclusion
The mistake of buying high and selling low is a common pitfall in stock trading, driven by emotional biases and poor timing. By understanding this mistake, developing a solid trading plan, using technical tools, and setting Stop Loss/Take Profit levels, traders can significantly reduce losses and enhance profitability. Implementing disciplined practices and improving decision-making processes are key to overcoming this classic error and achieving long-term trading success.
4 of the Best Day Trading Strategies4 of the Best Day Trading Strategies
Day trading is one of the most challenging approaches as it requires traders to make decisions quickly. Therefore, many traders like using established trading strategies. Explore the intricacies of day trading strategies in this article. For those keen on hands-on experience, consider using FXOpen's free TickTrader platform to follow along and enhance your trading insights.
1. Bollinger Bands & RSI Strategy
Bollinger Bands and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are potent tools that, when combined, can offer one of the best strategies for day trading, capitalising on both volatility and momentum.
Entry/Exit Criteria
Entries
Buy Entry:
- Price touches or exceeds the lower Bollinger Band.
- RSI dips below 30 (indicating oversold conditions).
Sell Entry:
- Price touches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band.
- RSI rises above 70 (indicating overbought conditions).
Stop Losses
Buy Trades:
- Slightly below the low point where the price touched the lower Bollinger Band.
Sell Trades:
- Slightly above the high point where the price touched the upper Bollinger Band.
Take Profits
Buy Trades:
- Price touches the middle Bollinger Band line or
- RSI rises towards 50-60, indicating diminishing bearish momentum.
Sell Trades:
- Price touches the middle Bollinger Band line or
- RSI drops towards 40-50, showing fading bullish momentum.
How/Why the Strategy Works
Bollinger Bands measure an asset's volatility. The outer bands expand during high volatility and contract during low volatility. The asset prices tend to revert to the mean, so a touch or breach of an outer band often indicates a short-term price extreme.
On the other hand, the RSI measures the magnitude and persistence of price movements. Values below 30 or above 70 denote oversold or overbought conditions, respectively.
By combining these tools, traders get a two-fold verification system. The Bollinger Bands hint at price extremes through volatility, while the RSI confirms it through momentum. This dual filter helps in improving the strategy's reliability, capturing reversals with a higher degree of accuracy.
2. Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation
Combining the simplicity of Moving Averages (MA) with the insights from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), this is one of the day trading strategies. When the two MAs crossover, it indicates a potential change in trend. The MACD serves as a filter to ensure the trend has momentum and is not a false signal. It’s a good idea to set the MACD’s fast and slow lengths to the same as your Fast and Slow MAs.
Entry/Exit Criteria
Entries
Bullish Entry:
- Fast MA (e.g., 20-period, blue in chart) crosses above the Slow MA (e.g., 50-period, red in chart).
- MACD line moves above the signal line.
Bearish Entry:
- Fast MA crosses below the Slow MA.
- MACD line moves below the signal line.
Stop Losses
Stop Loss for Bullish Entry:
- Slightly below the Slow MA at the point where the Fast MA crossed above the Slow MA.
Stop Loss for Bearish Entry:
- Slightly above the Slow MA at the point where the Fast MA crossed below the Slow MA.
Take Profits
Bullish Trades:
- Fast MA crosses below the Slow MA or
- MACD line descends below the signal line.
Bearish Trades:
- Fast MA crosses above the Slow MA or
- MACD line ascends above the signal line.
Why/How the Strategy Works
Moving Average crossovers indicate trend shifts. If the fast MA surpasses the slow MA, it implies rising momentum; if it drops below, it indicates a potential decline. However, these signals can be misleading. The MACD, reflecting the relationship between two MAs, validates momentum. A MACD line crossing its signal line confirms the MA's direction.
3. Fibonacci Retracement with Stochastic Oscillator
Marrying the predictive power of Fibonacci retracements with the momentum sensitivity of the Stochastic oscillator, this strategy aims to identify potential reversals within major trends. Fibonacci retracements are horizontal lines that indicate potential support and resistance levels, while the Stochastic oscillator measures the speed and change of price movements.
Entry/Exit Criteria
Entries
Bullish Reversal:
- Price retraces to a significant Fibonacci level (commonly 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%).
- The Stochastic oscillator goes below 20 (oversold territory) and then crosses back above, indicating gaining bullish momentum.
Bearish Reversal:
- Price retraces to a major Fibonacci level.
- The Stochastic oscillator exceeds 80 (overbought territory) and then crosses back below, signalling growing bearish momentum.
Stop Losses
Stop Loss for Bullish Reversal:
- Slightly below the Fibonacci level where the entry was made.
Stop Loss for Bearish Reversal:
- Slightly above the Fibonacci level where the entry occurred.
Take Profits
Exit for Bullish Trades:
- Price reaches the next Fibonacci resistance level or
- The Stochastic oscillator surpasses 80.
Exit for Bearish Trades:
- Price hits the next Fibonacci support level or
- The Stochastic oscillator drops below 20.
Why/How the Strategy Works
Fibonacci retracement levels are grounded in the belief that markets often retrace a predictable portion of a move. When prices pull back to these levels, they often find support or resistance, creating potential trading opportunities.
However, solely relying on Fibonacci can lead to false signals. To mitigate this, the Stochastic oscillator is employed. By determining if an asset is overbought or oversold relative to its recent price action, the oscillator adds a layer of momentum-based confirmation.
4. VWAP and Moving Average Confluence
The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a trading benchmark used by traders to determine the average price an asset has traded throughout the day based on both volume and price. When combined with a simple moving average (SMA), traders can pinpoint high-probability trade entries based on confluence and deviations. It’s one of the preferred day trading stock strategies.
Entry/Exit Criteria
Entries
Bullish Entry:
- Price is above both the VWAP (blue in chart) and the chosen SMA (e.g., 20-period, red in chart).
- A pullback occurs, where the price tests the SMA without closing below it.
Bearish Entry:
- The Price is below both the VWAP and the chosen SMA.
- A pullback occurs, where the price tests the SMA without closing above it.
Stop Losses
Stop Loss for Bullish Entry:
- Slightly below the entry point.
Stop Loss for Bearish Entry:
-Just above the entry point.
Take Profits
Exit for Bullish Trades:
- Price crosses below the VWAP or SMA.
- A predetermined risk-reward ratio is reached.
Exit for Bearish Trades:
- Price crosses above the VWAP or SMA.
- A predetermined risk-reward ratio is achieved.
Why/How the Strategy Works
The VWAP adjusts the day's price action for volume, indicating an average price. If the price is above the VWAP, it's seen as bullish, and the opposite for bearish. Paired with the SMA, it reinforces trend identification. When both align and serve as support/resistance, they signal market sentiment. By waiting for the price to respect both the VWAP and SMA during pullbacks, traders can achieve a higher probability of successful trade outcomes.
The Bottom Line
Whether trading forex, commodities, or stocks, these day trading strategies can help you find your feet and get started in the markets. Still, you should remember that they don’t guarantee 100% success. Markets are dynamic, therefore, each strategy should be used as a model that transforms depending on market conditions and your trading approach. Once you’ve got some experience under your belt, consider opening an FXOpen account. When you do, you’ll gain access to a broad range of markets to put your skills to the test, while benefiting from lightning-fast execution and competitive trading costs. Good luck!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Mastering Range Trading for Higher ProfitsRange trading is a strategy focused on capturing price movements within a defined range, marked by consistent oscillation between two levels—support and resistance. In this approach, support is the level where buyers prevent further declines, while resistance is the level where sellers cap price increases. Range traders aim to profit from buying at support and selling at resistance, capitalizing on predictable price swings.
While range trading is effective during periods of sideways movement, it has its limitations, particularly when the market becomes volatile or when a trend emerges. By integrating range trading with trend-following and breakout strategies, traders can better adapt to changing market conditions. This blended approach allows traders to capture profits in both consolidating and trending markets, maximizing trading opportunities.
Understanding Range Trading
Range trading focuses on identifying a price range where an asset consistently fluctuates between established support and resistance levels. Traders use this predictable pattern to generate profits by entering long positions at support and selling at resistance. Technical indicators, such as oscillators and volume analysis, help confirm entry and exit points within the range. The primary goal is to capitalize on repetitive price movements, with no expectation of a breakout or major trend shift.
Example of Range pattern in S&P500
Key Advantages of Range Trading
-Consistent Trading Opportunities: Ideal for non-trending markets, offering regular chances to profit from predictable price movements.
-Lower Risk: Relies on established support and resistance levels, minimizing the risk of sudden price swings.
-Simplicity: Easy to understand and implement, making it suitable for traders of all levels.
Limitations of Range Trading
-Vulnerability to Breakouts: Prone to significant losses if a breakout occurs and the price moves beyond the defined range.
-Smaller Profit Margins: Focuses on short-term price moves, resulting in lower profits compared to trend-following strategies.
-Market Dependency: Effective only in non-trending conditions; becomes less reliable during strong trends.
Combining Range Trading with Trend-Following
Trend-following strategies focus on riding sustained price movements in one direction. By entering positions in the direction of the trend, traders aim to capture larger gains as the trend progresses. The integration of range trading and trend-following can create a more adaptive trading plan, allowing traders to capitalize on both sideways and trending markets.
Example Range Trading on EUR/USD Following the trend - SMA 50
How to Blend Range Trading and Trend-Following
-Transition Points: During consolidation phases, range trading can be used to capture smaller price movements. When a breakout occurs, traders can shift to trend-following to capture larger price swings.
Indicators for Blending Strategies:
Use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify overbought and oversold conditions within a range.
Practical Implementation:
For example, when a currency pair is range-bound, traders can buy at support and sell at resistance using range trading. If a breakout follows, they can switch to a trend-following strategy by placing trades in the direction of the breakout.
Integrating Breakout Trading with Range Trading
Breakout trading aims to capture significant price movements when the market breaks beyond support or resistance levels. When combined with range trading, it can maximize trading opportunities, especially during high volatility periods.
Breakout example Range Trading EUR/USD
How to Integrate Breakout Trading with Range Trading
Spotting Breakout Setups:
Use range analysis to identify potential breakout points, as repeated tests of support or resistance often signal an impending breakout.
Managing Risk:
Set Stop Loss orders just below/above the breakout level to protect against false breakouts.
Use position sizing to manage risk according to your risk tolerance.
Maximizing Profits:
Use trailing stops to lock in profits as the market continues to move in the breakout direction.
Key Technical Indicators for Blending Strategies
Moving Averages (MA):
Identify trends and confirm breakouts.
-Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Help identify momentum and reversals, suitable for both range trading and trend-following.
Example of RSI Use on Range Trading
Choosing the Right Trading Platform
To effectively blend range trading, trend-following, and breakout strategies, it’s essential to use the right trading platform.
TradingView: Known for its intuitive interface and wide range of indicators, ideal for technical analysis.
Backtesting Tools: Use backtesting features ( from Tradingview ) to evaluate the performance of your integrated strategy against historical data.
In Conclusion combining range trading with trend-following and breakout strategies can significantly enhance your trading performance. This comprehensive approach allows you to capitalize on consolidation phases, trend shifts, and breakout opportunities. By adapting to different market environments, traders can achieve more consistent and profitable results.
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TOP DOWN ANALYSIS OF US DOLLAR - Watch n´Learn Hi everyone!
So If you were to look back at my previous education video on the DXY you would have seen that we have continued to go higher.
And right we are in the third zone without a pullback. What does it mean?
Well for me, it means its definitely time for a serious pullback, where I would make back all my sell losses.
This a little bit too manipulatory for me, and it does not make much sense, but gotta keep going and make that living.
Thanks for watching!
Swing vs. Scalping: Who Really Wins?In the world of trading, data from industry sources often paints a picture that can be misleading for individual traders. Brokers and trading platforms promote high success rates, particularly for more frequent traders like scalpers, but the reality is often far more complex. In this post, we'll break down some of the numbers presented by industry sources and contrast them with independent research to give you a clearer perspective.
Industry-Sourced Success Rates
According to various industry sources, here’s what the reported success rates look like:
Scalper (Under 5-minute operator):
Success Rate: 50-70%
Reasoning:
High trade frequency.
Small price movements.
Greater liquidity.
Short-term trend strategies.
Swing Trader:
Success Rate: 30-50%
Reasoning:
Lower trade frequency.
Larger price movements.
Greater exposure to risk.
Medium to long-term trend strategies.
At first glance, it seems like scalping offers a better chance of success. More frequent trades, combined with the liquidity of short-term moves, are presented as reasons why scalpers may be more successful. But should you trust these numbers at face value?
Conflicts of Interest in Industry Data
These industry-reported numbers may not be as reliable as they seem. Several potential conflicts of interest come into play when brokers and trading platforms promote certain types of trading:
Platform Promotion: Platforms often highlight strategies that lead to more frequent trades, as these generate higher commissions for brokers.
Attracting Active Traders: Scalpers tend to make more trades, and brokers benefit from the higher transaction volume.
Risk Policies: Some platforms may structure their risk management tools and incentives to favor short-term trading.
What Independent Sources Say
When we look at independent, non-conflicted sources, a different picture starts to emerge. Independent academic studies suggest that swing traders may actually perform better than scalpers, for several reasons:
Lower Trade Frequency: Swing traders typically make fewer trades, which reduces the impact of commission fees and spreads on their returns.
Focus on Trends and Fundamentals: Swing traders often use technical analysis and fundamental factors to capture larger price moves, improving their potential for larger gains.
Better Risk Management: With more time between trades, swing traders tend to employ more disciplined risk management practices.
Less Stress and Fatigue: Scalping requires constant focus, which can lead to poor decision-making due to stress or fatigue.
Independent Studies: Swing Traders vs. Scalpers
Let’s take a look at some independent studies that tell a different story from the industry narrative:
University of California Study (2019): Found that swing traders had an average annual return of 12.6%, compared to 6.8% for scalpers.
Journal of Trading Report (2018): Showed a success rate of 55.6% for swing traders, compared to 41.4% for scalpers.
QuantConnect Report (2020): Strategies based on swing trading delivered an average annual return of 15.6%, outperforming scalping strategies.
These studies highlight how swing trading can offer better risk-reward profiles compared to the fast-paced, high-stress world of scalping.
Key Takeaways for Individual Traders
The key lesson here is not to fall for marketing hype or industry reports that may push you towards a specific style of trading, especially one that benefits the platforms you trade on. Here’s what you should keep in mind:
Be Critical: Always question the sources of information. Industry success rates might be skewed by conflicts of interest.
Independent Research: Seek out independent studies, academic journals, and unbiased platforms to get a clearer picture.
Understand Your Goals: Both swing trading and scalping come with risks. Choose a trading style that fits your goals, risk tolerance, and lifestyle.
Focus on Long-Term Growth: While scalping may seem exciting, swing trading tends to offer better long-term results by focusing on fewer, higher-quality trades with disciplined risk management.
Recommended Resources for Objective Information
Academic Journals: Journal of Trading, Journal of Financial Markets.
University Studies: Seek out financial studies from universities like Stanford or Berkeley.
Independent Platforms: QuantConnect, Backtrader.
Specialized Blogs: TradingView, Investopedia.
In conclusion, while the industry may promote fast-paced trading with promises of high success rates, the reality for individual traders is often quite different. Take the time to educate yourself and base your decisions on unbiased, independent information to improve your chances of success.
P.S. Stay tuned for my next post, where I'll dive deeper into the topic, going beyond the potential use of misleading advertising. I'll demonstrate, using statistical methods—specifically, a covariance analysis—why larger time frames, like those used in swing trading, are mathematically more favorable for individual traders. Don't miss it!
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading is risky, and you should always conduct thorough research or consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
SWING TUTORIAL - MFSLIn this tutorial, we analyze the stock NSE:MFSL (MAX FINANCIAL SERV LTD) identifying a lucrative swing trading opportunity following its all-time high in July 2021. The stock declined by nearly 50%, forming a Lower Low Price Action Pattern, but subsequently reversed its trend.
At the same time, we can also observe the MACD Level making a contradictory Pattern of Higher Highs. This Higher High Pattern of the MACD signaled the start of a Bullish Momentum, thereby also signaling a good Buying Opportunity.
The trading strategy yielded approximately 80% returns in 71 weeks. Technical analysis concepts used included price action analysis, MACD, momentum reversal, trend analysis and chart patterns. The MACD crossover served as the Entry Point, with the stock rising to its Swing High Levels of 1148 and serving as our Exit too.
As of wiring this tutorial, we can also notice how the stock is making a breakout and retest of the Swing High levels and trying to continue its momentum further upward trying to make a new All Time High.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
1. Momentum Reversal: The stock's price action shifted from a bearish to a bullish trend, indicating a potential reversal.
2. MACD Indicator: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line showed steady upward momentum, signaling increasing bullish pressure.
3. MACD Crossover: The successful crossover in May 2023 confirmed the bullish trend, creating an entry opportunity.
TRADING STRATEGY AND RESULTS:
1. Entry Point: MACD crossover in May 2023.
2. Exit Point: Swing High Levels - 1148.
3. Return: Approximately 80%.
4. Trade Duration: 71 weeks.
NOTE: This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining technical indicators to identify bullish momentum. By recognizing Price Action, MACD movements, and Reversal patterns, traders can pinpoint potential entry and exit points.
Would you like to explore more technical analysis concepts or case studies? Share your feedback and suggestions in the comments section below.
Stock Selection: How to Tip the Tailwinds in Your Favour Stock selection is a game of fine margins but understanding a few key factors can tilt the probability of success in your favour. By focusing on these crucial elements, you can ensure that when it comes to buying stocks, you’re sailing with the prevailing tailwinds rather than fighting against them.
1. Don’t Fight the Market
Ever heard the saying, “a rising tide lifts all ships”? This holds true in the stock market. Favourable market conditions can make an average investor look like Warren Buffett. When the market is stable, it allows other factors to shine, while a risk-averse environment can dampen even the best stock’s performance.
Don’t overthink this concept—use simple moving averages, such as the 50-day and 200-day, when analysing the index. Pair this with basic structure analysis to assess overall market conditions. Ask yourself: What is the long-term trend in the index? What is the current momentum? What does the price structure look like? The better the market conditions, the more aggressive you can be in your stock selection, as the broad tailwinds are stronger.
Example: FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 index has been navigating a choppy sideways range since May, but there are still signs of optimism beneath the surface. While we’re not in a full-blown bull market, the 50-day moving average (50MA) remains comfortably above the 200-day moving average (200MA), and both are sloping upwards—indicating a long-term uptrend. Prices are currently hovering near the 50MA, suggesting the market’s tailwinds remain mildly favorable, even amidst some volatility.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Earnings Catalysts: The Power of Post-Earnings Drift
Positive earnings surprises can work wonders for any stock. They often create price gaps that signal strong short-term momentum. Moreover, positive earnings surprises can take time to be fully ‘priced in’ because large institutional investors typically stagger their investments over time. This phenomenon, known as post-earnings announcement drift, can lead to continued price appreciation following an earnings beat.
Look for stocks that have recent positive fundamental catalysts in their price history. This focus can give you a clearer path toward potential gains.
Example: Barclays (BARC)
In February, Barclays revealed a strategic plan that reignited investor confidence and sparked a sharp breakout in its share price. The bank announced a £10 billion buyback program, coupled with £2 billion in cost cuts, aiming to boost profitability and efficiency. Barclays also set its sights on delivering returns in excess of 12% by 2026, with a renewed focus on its higher-margin UK consumer and business lending divisions. This announcement acted as a major earnings catalyst, forming the foundation for a strong uptrend that followed.
BARC Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. The Buyback Bounce: Share Buybacks
Companies that initiate share buybacks signal confidence in their stock and a commitment to returning value to shareholders. When a company buys back its shares, it reduces the total number of outstanding shares, often resulting in an increase in earnings per share (EPS) and potentially boosting the stock price.
While this isn’t an exact science, a stock undergoing a share buyback that meets the other criteria on this list can provide a solid tailwind for your investment.
Example: Mastercard Incorporated (MA.)
In the second quarter of 2024, Mastercard repurchased approximately 5.8 million shares for $2.6 billion. Through the first half of 2024, the company bought back 10.2 million shares at a total cost of $4.6 billion. As of July 26, 2024, MA had repurchased an additional 1.9 million shares for $820 million, leaving $8.7 billion remaining under its approved share repurchase programs. These strategic buybacks not only reflect Mastercard's strong cash generation capabilities but also underline its commitment to enhancing shareholder value, making it an attractive consideration for investors seeking growth.
MA. Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
4. Focus on Financial Quality
When hunting for stocks, there’s often a tendency to bargain hunt, looking for those poised for a bounce. However, we believe that, over the long term, high-quality companies are best positioned to outperform the market. You don’t have to be a Wall Street analyst to develop a robust quality filter. The following financial metrics can help ensure that the stock you’re buying is solid and less likely to face dilution:
• Return on Equity (ROE): Most companies will claim they are high-quality businesses that prioritize investors, but checking this metric helps verify their claims. A high ROE of 15% or more indicates efficient use of equity and a commitment to shareholder value.
• Free Cash Flow (FCF): Cash is king for a good reason. Strong free cash flow means the company generates ample cash after covering its operational expenses, allowing for reinvestment or returns to shareholders. A FCF yield of 5% or higher is typically desirable.
• Debt-to-Equity Ratio: While balance sheet strength may sound boring, it’s crucial. A low debt-to-equity ratio, ideally below 1.0, suggests a company is not overly reliant on debt to fuel growth, making it less vulnerable in downturns.
Example: Morgan Sindall (MGNS)
With a Return on Equity (ROE) of 22.7%, Morgan Sindall significantly exceeds the 15% benchmark, showcasing effective management and strong profitability. Its Free Cash Flow yield is an impressive 10.81%, well above the desirable 5%, reflecting robust cash generation capabilities. Furthermore, the company boasts a negative Debt-to-Equity ratio of -0.49, highlighting a strong balance sheet with no net debt and low financial risk. These qualities are also evident in its strong price chart (see below).
MGNS Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
5. Long-Term Trend Structure
Just as analysing the strength of the overall market can create headwinds and tailwinds, you should also be mindful of a stock's price history and calibrate your expectations accordingly. An old adage that has stood the test of time is, “trends take considerable time and effort to change.” This doesn’t mean you should buy stocks that have undergone prolonged underperformance, but it does mean you should be cautious and aware of a stock’s long-term trend when making decisions.
Example: Marathon (MARA Holdings)
A quick look at Marathon’s daily chart shows prices oscillating around the 200-day moving average, indicating a period of indecision. The trend lacks clear direction, with momentum appearing tepid at best. Given the uncertainty, investors should be cautious about taking trend continuation or momentum trades here until a clearer signal emerges.
MAR Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Conclusion
When it comes to stock selection, leveraging favourable market conditions, earnings catalysts, share buybacks, financial quality, and trend structures can enhance your investment strategy. By aligning your selections with these key factors, you can tip the tailwinds in your favour and increase your chances of success in the ever-evolving stock market.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Learn Best Time Frames For Scalping Any Forex Pair
I am trading forex with top-down analysis for many years.
In this article, I will teach you powerful combinations of multiple time frames for scalping any currency pair.
For scalping financial markets with multiple time frame analysis, I recommend applying 3 time frames: 4H, 15 minutes and 5 minutes time frames.
4H time frame will be applied for trend and structure analysis.
On a 4H time frame, you should identify the direction of the market and significant supports and resistance.
Key supports in a bullish trend will be applied for buying the market.
While key resistances will be applied for counter trend trading.
Above is USDJPY chart, 4H time frame.
The trend is bullish and I have underlined important historical structures.
Key resistances in a bearish trend will be applied for selling the market.
While key supports will be applied for counter trend trading.
Look at a structure and trend analysis on EURUSD on a 4H time frame.
15 minutes and 5 minutes time frames will be applied for confirmation, entry signal and trade execution.
The logic is that once you identified key levels on a 4H time frame, you are patiently waiting for the test of one of these structures.
Once one of the key levels is tested, you start analyzing 15 minutes and 5 minutes time frame and look for a signal there.
What should be the signal?
It can be a specific candlestick pattern, price action pattern, some signal from a technical indicator or some other stuff.
Personally, I look for a price action pattern.
I am looking for a bearish price action pattern on a 4H resistance and a bullish price action pattern on a 4H support.
Look at GBPUSD. The pair is trading in a bearish trend on a 4H time frame, and it tests a key horizontal resistance.
On 15 minutes time frame, we see a strong bearish price action signal.
Head and shoulders pattern formation and a bearish breakout of its horizontal neckline.
That will be our strong scalping short signal.
If you sell the market in a bearish trend on a 4H from a key resistance, you can anticipate a bearish movement to the closest 4H support.
Look how nicely GBPUSD dropped after a strong bearish confirmation of 15 minutes time frame.
In that case, we did not apply 5 minutes time frame in our analysis,
keep reading and I will explain when we apply 5 minutes time frame for scalping.
Above is USDCAD. On a 4H time frame, I executed trend and structure analysis. We see a test of a key support in a bullish trend.
At the same time, no pattern is formed on 15 minutes time frame after a test of structure.
In such a situation, analyze 5 minutes time frame. If there is no pattern on 15m, probabilities will be high that the pattern will appear on 5m.
On 5 minutes time frame, the pair formed the ascending triangle formation. A bullish breakout of its neckline is a strong bullish signal and confirmation for us to buy.
If you buy the market in a bullish trend on a 4H from a key support, you can anticipate a bullish movement to the closest 4H resistance.
You can see that after our confirmed bullish signal, the price went up to Resistance 1.
Both trading opportunities that we discussed are trend following ones.
Remember that the trades that are taken against the trend are riskier and have lower accuracy.
For that reason, if you are a newbie trader, strictly trade with the trend!
Good luck in scalping with multiple time frame analysis!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
How to Master Technical AnalysisHow to Master Technical Analysis
Price action traders are avid chart enthusiasts, constantly scouring price charts for valuable insights. Their trading approach is deeply rooted in technical analysis, a method that has been in the books of market participants for centuries. This article will cover technical analysis strategies and go into advanced technical analysis techniques.
Definition and Purpose of Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is a method used to evaluate and forecast the future movements of financial assets, such as stocks, currencies, commodities, or cryptocurrencies*, based on historical market data and statistics. The primary purpose of technical analysis is to help traders and investors make informed decisions by studying patterns and trends in charts and identifying potential entry and exit points.
Key Principles of Technical Analysis
Technical analysis in trading is based on several principles:
- Supply and demand. This principle reflects that the asset price is influenced by supply and demand. When demand outpaces supply, instruments tend to move up, and vice versa.
- "Trend Is Your Friend". This principle emphasises identifying and following prevailing trends and not going against them. Traders can spot trends by using tools like trendlines, moving averages, and indicators like the Average Directional Index (ADX).
- Volumes. Volume, the traded amount of an asset, is crucial; high volume during price changes indicates strong interest and validates movements, while low volume suggests uncertainty.
You may employ several indicators for a better technical analysis on FXOpen’s TickTrader platform.
Chart Types and Timeframes
The most common chart types used in technical analysis include:
- Line Chart: It connects closing prices with a line, providing a simple overview of chart movements over time.
- Bar Chart: Each bar represents the high, low, open, and close prices for a specific period, offering more detailed information than a line chart.
- Candlestick Chart: Similar to a bar chart, but each candlestick's body represents the difference between the open and close prices, and the wicks (shadows) show the high and low prices.
Timeframes in technical analysis refer to specific durations for representing price data on charts. Common timeframes include intraday (1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, and 1-hour) for short-term trading, daily for swing trading, weekly for identifying longer-term trends, and monthly for long-term investors.
Essential Technical Analysis Tools and Indicators
Traders utilise a wide array of indicators to inform their trading decisions, which can be categorised into five main groups:
- Momentum Indicators: These indicators gauge the velocity and strength of price movements, aiding in the identification of whether a trend is gaining or losing momentum.
- Volume Indicators: These indicators analyse trading volume to assess the potency of price movements. They offer insights into the level of market participation and can confirm or question the validity of price trends.
- Trend Indicators: These indicators assist in recognising the direction and strength of trading trends.
- Oscillators: Oscillators signal overbought or oversold conditions and can help identify potential trend reversals.
- Volatility Indicators: Volatility indicators quantify the rate at which the prices of an asset fluctuate.
Chart and Candlestick Patterns
Traders also use chart and candlestick patterns. Chart Patterns, such as Head and Shoulders and Double Tops/Bottoms, serve as indicators of potential trend changes, while Flags and Pennants point towards trend continuations. Candlestick Patterns, such as Doji, Hammer, and Engulfing, reveal market sentiment and potential reversals.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance points are essential in technical analysis.
Support levels are where an asset tends to find buying interest and reverse its downward movement. Resistance levels are where selling interest tends to emerge, causing the instrument to reverse its upward movement. Support and resistance levels are crucial as they indicate potential turning points in the market. A break below support or above resistance can signal a trend change.
You can practise adding different tools in various markets right now.
Limitations of Technical Analysis
Technical analysis has the following limitations:
- Subjectivity: Technical analysis relies on interpreting historical price patterns and indicators, which can be subjective and open to different interpretations.
- Lack of Fundamental Analysis: Technical analysis does not consider fundamental factors like company financials or economic indicators, which can have a significant impact on an instrument.
- Market Sentiment Shifts: Unexpected news or events can quickly invalidate technical analysis predictions, leading to potential losses.
Conclusion
Technical analysis may be a valuable tool for traders and investors to analyse price movements and make informed decisions; however, it's essential to acknowledge its limitations and consider it as one of many techniques when trading. Combining technical and fundamental analyses may lead to a more comprehensive approach to trading and investing. As you get a better understanding of the subject, you may consider opening an FXOpen account and applying the concepts to live trading.
*At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bouncing Between Support and Resistance: A Simple yet Effective This straightforward approach leverages the fundamental concept of support and resistance levels to identify potential reversal points. By drawing these key levels on the chart, you'll visualize the trading range as a "floor" and "slab," similar to a ball bouncing within these boundaries, same work candles do between support and resistance
Case Study: GBP
Observing the GBP chart, we notice three instances of instant reversals occurring at resistance levels and five at support zones. This illustrates the strategy's potential effectiveness.
Trade Entry Guidelines:
To minimize losses, consider the following entry rules:
1. Sell Signals: Enter short positions when the trend approaches resistance levels.
2. Buy Signals: Enter long positions when the trend approaches support levels.
By employing this strategy, traders can capitalize on predictable price movements and maximize profits.
Surviving Drawdown: The Battle Between You and the MarketThe Battle Between You and the Market
Every trader, no matter how seasoned, eventually encounters the nemesis of every strategy: drawdown. It’s that dreaded phase where the market isn’t quite ready to move in the direction of your bias, and your account balance starts to bleed. The key to surviving drawdown isn’t just about protecting your capital—it’s about protecting your mind. The mental toll of seeing your carefully plotted trades go red can lead to fatigue, impulsivity, and, in some cases, abandonment of your well-thought-out plan.
But here’s the reality: drawdowns are part of the game. The market doesn’t move on your schedule, and it certainly doesn’t care about your bills, goals, or aspirations. Harsh, but true.
In the world of trading, few experiences are as daunting as facing a drawdown. This period, where the market refuses to move in the direction of your bias, can feel like an endless slog through thick mud. It's during these times that trader fatigue sets in, and the mental strain can become overwhelming. But surviving a drawdown isn’t just about weathering the storm; it’s about maintaining focus, sticking to your plan, and emerging stronger on the other side.
Understanding Drawdown: A Necessary Evil
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of trading, a reality that every trader must confront. They occur when your account equity declines from its peak, often resulting from a series of losing trades. This is not a reflection of your skills or judgment; rather, it’s a natural fluctuation in the market. Accepting this fact is crucial for maintaining a balanced mindset.
It’s easy to get caught up in the emotional turmoil that accompanies a drawdown. You might start questioning your strategy, second-guessing your decisions, or even feeling a deep sense of fatigue that clouds your judgment. Recognizing that drawdowns are temporary and often necessary for long-term success is the first step towards mental fortitude.
The Weight of Trader Fatigue
Trader fatigue is real, and it can manifest in various forms: diminished focus, irritability, and an overall lack of clarity in decision-making. As the drawdown drags on, it’s common to feel like you’re fighting an uphill battle, grappling with both the market and your own psyche.
The key to overcoming this fatigue is to remain steadfast in your commitment to your trading plan. Embrace the discipline that brought you to trading in the first place. Remember, every successful trader has weathered their share of drawdowns. It’s not about the setbacks; it’s how you respond to them that defines your journey.
Stick to the Plan: The Importance of Discipline
When faced with a drawdown, the temptation to abandon your trading plan can be strong. You might be lured into making impulsive trades or deviating from your established strategy in an attempt to “make back” your losses. This is a perilous path. Instead, focus on the process. A well-defined trading plan serves as your guiding compass, ensuring that you stay on course, even when the waters are choppy.
Utilizing Alerts: The Power of TradingView
One of the most effective tools in your trading arsenal is the alert feature available on platforms like TradingView. Set alerts for key price levels or indicators that align with your trading strategy. This simple act allows you to step away from the charts, minimizing stress and providing the mental space you need to reset.
By using alerts, you can disengage from the constant fluctuations of the market without losing touch with your strategy. Instead of staring at the screen, waiting for the market to conform to your bias, you can live your life—confident that you’ll be notified when it’s time to reassess your position.
Embrace Patience and Mindfulness
During a drawdown, patience is not just a virtue; it’s a necessity. The market operates on its own timetable, and as traders, we must learn to respect that. Implement mindfulness techniques to cultivate a sense of calm and clarity. Engage in practices like meditation, deep breathing, or even short walks to recharge your mental energy.
This approach allows you to view the market from a fresh perspective, reducing the noise of frustration and fatigue. Cultivating a mindset of patience will enable you to remain focused on your long-term goals rather than being derailed by short-term setbacks.
Keeping Perspective: The Long Game
Finally, keep in mind that trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Drawdowns, while difficult, are often precursors to periods of growth and profitability. By maintaining perspective, you can navigate these challenging times with resilience. Celebrate your wins, no matter how small, and remember that every setback brings with it valuable lessons.
Surviving a drawdown is an essential part of the trader's journey. Embrace the process, stay disciplined, and utilize the tools at your disposal—like TradingView alerts—to ease the mental burden. By maintaining focus and perspective, you can emerge from the drawdown not just intact, but stronger and more equipped for future challenges. Remember, in the world of trading, persistence pays off. The key to success lies in how you respond to the inevitable ups and downs. Stay the course, and the markets will eventually align with your bias once more.
Options: Why the Odds Are Stacked Against YouThe Hidden Challenges of Options Trading:
Options trading may seem like an exciting way to profit from market movements, but beneath the surface lies a trading environment that is heavily biased against individual traders. Many retail investors jump into options trading unaware of the many disadvantages they face, making it more of a gamble than a calculated investment. In this post, we’ll explore the major challenges that make options trading so difficult for individual traders and why you need more than luck to succeed.
1. The Odds Are Biased: Complex Algorithms Unlevel the Playing Field
The first thing to understand is that the playing field is not even. Professional traders and market makers use complex algorithms that evaluate a wide range of factors—volatility, market conditions, historical data, time decay, news and more—before they even think about entering a trade. These systems are designed to assess risks, manage exposure, and execute trades with a precision that most individual traders simply can’t match.
For an individual trader, manually analyzing these factors or using basic tools available online is nearly impossible. By the time you’ve analyzed one factor, the market may have already shifted. The reality is that unless you have access to these advanced algorithmic systems, you're trading with a massive handicap.
2. Market Makers Hold the Upper Hand: Your Trades Are Their Game
Market makers play a critical role in options trading by providing liquidity. However, they also hold an unbeatable advantage. They see both sides of the trade, control the bid-ask spreads, and use their position to ensure they’re on the winning side more often than not. For them, it’s not about making speculative bets; it’s about managing risk and profiting from the flow of orders they receive.
When you trade options, you're often trading against these market makers, and their strategies are designed to maximize their advantage while minimizing their risk. This means your trades are, in essence, a bad gamble from the start. The house always wins, and in this case, the house is the market maker.
3. They Will Fool You Every Time: Bid-Ask Spreads and the Math You Don’t See
One of the most overlooked challenges in options trading is understanding the bid-ask spread. This spread represents the difference between the price you can buy an option (ask) and the price you can sell it (bid). While this may seem straightforward, it’s an area where professionals easily outsmart retail traders.
Advanced traders and market makers use complex mathematical models to manage and manipulate these spreads to their advantage. If you don’t have the mathematical skills to properly evaluate whether the spread is fair or skewed, you’re setting yourself up to overpay for options, leading to unnecessary losses.
4. Information and Tools: A Professional-Only Advantage
Another critical challenge is the vast difference in information and tools available to retail traders versus professionals. Institutional traders have access to data streams, proprietary tools, and execution platforms that the average trader can only dream of. They can monitor market sentiment, analyze volatility in real-time, and execute trades at lightning speed, often milliseconds faster than any retail investor.
These tools give professionals an enormous edge in identifying trends, hedging positions, and managing risk. Without them, individual traders are flying blind, trying to compete in an arena where the best information is reserved for the pros.
5. Volatility and Time Decay: The Ultimate Account Killers
Two of the most critical factors in options trading are volatility and time decay (known as theta). These are the silent killers of options accounts, and pros use them to their advantage.
Volatility: When volatility increases, option prices go up, which might sound great. However, volatility is unpredictable, and when it swings in the wrong direction, it can destroy your position’s value almost overnight. Professionals have sophisticated strategies to manage and hedge against volatility; most individual traders don’t.
Time Decay: Time is constantly working against you in options trading. Every day that passes, the value of an option slowly erodes, and as expiration approaches, this decay accelerates. For most retail traders, this is a ticking time bomb. Pros, on the other hand, know how to structure trades to profit from time decay, leaving amateurs at a disadvantage.
Conclusion: Trading Options Is No Easy Game
The challenges of options trading are real and significant. Between the advanced algorithms, the market makers’ advantages, the mathematical complexities of bid-ask spreads, and the tools and information reserved for professionals, the odds are stacked against you. Add to that the constant threat of volatility and time decay, and it’s clear that options trading is a difficult and often losing game for individual traders.
If you’re thinking about jumping into options trading, it’s crucial to understand the risks involved and recognize that the deck is stacked. To succeed, you need more than just a basic understanding—you need tools, strategy, and a deep awareness of how the pros operate. Without that, you're gambling, not trading.
Trading with Moving Average CrossoversTrading with Moving Average Crossovers
Trading indicators and technical analysis are essential components of the financial markets, utilised by traders and investors to analyse price movements, identify trends, and make informed trading decisions. The moving average is an indicator that is used by many traders. This article will cover the best moving averages for day trading, swing trading, and scalping and discuss the crossover strategies.
Understanding Moving Averages
A moving average is a fundamental technical analysis tool used in financial markets to analyse price trends and identify potential trading opportunities. It provides a smoothed representation of price data over a specified period, enabling traders and investors to filter out short-term fluctuations and better understand the underlying trend. By plotting the average of past price points, the indicator creates a continuous line on a price chart, making it easier to spot trends and potential reversals.
There are several types of MAs used in technical analysis. The choice of MA depends on the trader's preferences, trading strategy, and the market conditions. Let's go through some of the most common types of MAs:
- Simple Moving Average (SMA): This is the most common or basic type of moving average. It calculates the average price over a specified number of periods and equally weights each data point. For example, a 10-day SMA calculates the average closing price of the last 10 days and updates it with each new day's data.
- Exponential Moving Average (EMA): It gives more weight to recent price data, thus, becoming more responsive to current market conditions. It is calculated using a formula that applies a weighting multiplier.
- Weighted Moving Average (WMA): The WMA assigns different weights to different data points, giving more importance to recent prices. The weighting scheme can vary, but commonly, the most recent data points have the highest weights.
- Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): The Smoothed Moving Average is a variation of the EMA, but it considers an extended history of price data. It attempts to provide a smoother curve by applying an additional smoothing factor.
Types of Moving Averages Crossover
A crossover is one of the key signals traders use when utilising this indicator. A cross occurs when two moving averages with different periods intersect each other. Crosses can be found on any timeframe. Therefore, traders use moving averages even for day trading.
- Bullish MA Crossover: This occurs when a shorter-term moving average, such as a 50-hour EMA, crosses above a longer-term one, like a 200-hour EMA. This crossover is considered a bullish signal, indicating a potential upward trend and often signalling a buying opportunity. The TickTrader chart below highlights a bullish run when the 50-hour EMA crosses above the 200-hour EMA.
- Bearish MA Crossover: On the other hand, a bearish crossover happens when a shorter-term MA crosses below a longer-term one. For instance, if a 50-hour EMA moves below a 200-hour EMA, it suggests a potential downward trend and may signal a selling opportunity. FXOpen’s TickTrader chart highlights a bearish run as the 50-hour EMA crosses over the 200-hour EMA from above.
Confirming the Moving Averages Crossover
While MA crossovers can provide valuable insights into potential trends, it is essential to confirm these signals using additional tools:
- Volume Analysis: Analysing trading volume alongside moving average crossovers can enhance the reliability of the signals. A substantial increase in volume during a crossover can signify stronger market participation, supporting the validity of the trend reversal. The chart below shows a crossover coupled with rising volumes.
- Oscillators and Indicators: Utilising additional technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), can provide supplementary confirmation. Overbought/oversold conditions reflected by oscillators signal potential trend reversals and strengthen the crossover signal.
Look at the GBPUSD chart below. A move away by the RSI indicator from the overbought area, coupled with a MA crossover, provided additional confirmation of the trend reversal.
Advantages and Limitations of Moving Average Crossovers
Let's go through some advantages of MA crossovers:
- Simplicity: Moving average crossovers are straightforward to understand and implement. They involve plotting two MAs on a price chart and observing the interactions.
- Trend Identification: They help identify the prevailing trend in a market. A bullish crossover, where a shorter-term MA crosses above a longer-term one, signals a potential uptrend, while a bearish crossover, where the shorter-term moving average crosses below the longer-term one, indicates a potential downtrend.
- Signal Generation: Crossovers can generate trading signals, telling traders when to enter or exit positions. These signals are based on the assumption that crossovers represent significant shifts in market sentiment. Therefore, moving averages are used for swing trading.
- Smoothing Effect: They smooth out price fluctuations, making it easier to identify trend changes amid market noise.
- Versatility: Traders can customise the length of MAs to suit their trading strategies and timeframes, allowing them to adapt to various market conditions.
Here are the limitations of MA crossovers:
- Lagging Indicator: MAs are lagging indicators because they are based on past price data. As a result, crossovers may occur after the start of a new trend, leading to delayed entries and exits.
- Whipsawing: In choppy or sideways markets, the indicator may generate frequent crossovers. These false signals can result in losses and frustration for many market participants.
- Lack of Precision: Crosses may not be precise enough to capture short-term price movements. They may work better in trending markets but struggle in ranging or volatile conditions.
- Insensitivity to Market Conditions: As moving averages are lagging indicators, they may not fully adapt to changing market dynamics or sudden spikes in volatility.
- Needed to be adjusted: While moving averages are effective in all markets, they may provide inaccurate signals, particularly during periods of low liquidity or unusual price behaviour. Therefore, they need to be adjusted to fit particular market conditions.
Final Thoughts
Swing and day trading with moving averages is one of the more popular trading approaches due to its simplicity and effectiveness. However, traders should note that without astute risk management and a proper trading plan, it is difficult to succeed in the financial markets. After developing a strong hand in MAs, you may consider opening an FXOpen account and trading various financial instruments.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
HOW And WHY The Markets MoveIn this video I explain HOW and WHY the markets move.
At it's core, trading is a zero-sum game, meaning that nothing is created. There must always be a counter-party to any trade, after all it is called "trading". Because of this, liquidity is the lifeblood of the market and it is what is required by all participants, albeit more for the larger entities out there. In order for these larger entities to trade, they must do so in stages of buying and selling, and not all in one single position like we do as retail traders. They buy on the way down, and sell on the way up, throughout many different time horizons. Therefore, they require price to be delivered efficiently in order to sustain this working machine.
I hope you find the video somewhat insightful. Regardless of your beliefs, I think it can be agreed that these two principles are what drives the marketplace and it's movements.
- R2F
US dollar rally faces hurdle as rates unwind stalls at key levelWhether it reflects US economic exceptionalism reducing the need for large-scale rate cuts from the Federal Reserve or improved prospects for Donald Trump winning the US Presidential election, or a combination of both, it’s obvious the US interest rate outlook is dictating direction across FX markets.
Higher US yields are sucking capital from other parts of the world, helping to fuel US dollar strength. With short-dated Treasury futures teetering above a key technical level, what happens next could be highly influential in determining the path for currencies and global borrowing costs as we move towards year-end.
Example of creating a trading strategy chart
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To interpret the chart from a trend perspective, you can use the MS-Signal indicator.
The MS-Signal indicator consists of the M-Signal indicator and the S-Signal indicator.
Therefore, you can analyze the chart by checking the arrangement of the M-Signal indicator and the movement around it.
The most important thing in chart analysis is support and resistance points.
Therefore, if you do not indicate support and resistance points, it can be said that the chart analysis cannot be used for trading.
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So, Fibonacci retracement and trend-based Fibonacci extension are widely used in chart analysis.
I used the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool.
I selected and displayed the low and high points pointed by the fingers.
The selection of the candles pointed by the fingers corresponds to the inflection points of the StochRSI indicator.
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If you connect these, you get a trend line.
The important thing when drawing a trend line is to connect the high points of the StochRSI indicator by connecting the opening prices of the falling candles.
When connecting the low points, you can connect the low points regardless of whether it is a falling candle or an rising candle.
This is because I think it best expresses the trend and volatility period based on my experience using it.
When drawing the Fibonacci ratio and when drawing the trend line, the selection points are different, so you should draw it with this in mind.
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If it is drawn as above, you can see that the chart is ready to be analyzed.
Since the channeling most commonly used in chart analysis has been formed, I think chart analysis will not be difficult.
However, the above method is a drawing for chart analysis, so it is not suitable for trading.
This is an important point.
If you are good at chart analysis, but wonder why you lose money when trading, you should change the drawing of support and resistance points.
Do not trade with Fibonacci ratios, but mark support and resistance points according to the candle arrangement on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts and create a trading strategy according to their importance.
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The chart above shows the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
To display this, we used the HA-High, HA-Low, OBV 0, OBV Up, OBV Down, BW (100), Mid (50), BW (0) indicators.
To display the exact volatility period, we also need to draw a trend line on the 1M, 1W chart.
The indicators that are important for support and resistance points are HA-Low, HA-High, BW (100), BW (0).
Therefore, the point where the trend line intersects this point is likely to correspond to the volatility period.
It is not accurate because it is displayed only with the trend line that was created right away, but I think it explains well how to display the volatility period.
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If you display the volatility period like this and hide all indicators, you will have a complete chart that can be used for trading.
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Have a good time.
Thank you.
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