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Most Traders React to Markets. The Best Anticipate Them.Most Traders React to Markets. The Best Anticipate Them. Hard truth: You're always one step behind because you trade reactively. You can’t win a race if you're always responding to moves already made. Here's how reactive trading burns your edge: - You chase breakouts after they've happened, entering at the peak. - You panic-sell into downturns because you didn't anticipate. - You miss major moves because you're looking backward, not forward. 🎯 The fix? Develop anticipatory trading habits. Identify scenarios in advance, set clear triggers, and act decisively when probabilities align - not after the market confirms. TrendGo provides structure for anticipation - not reaction. 🔍 Stop responding, start anticipating. Your account will thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by TrendGo_Official
Re-defining Trading Psychology: A Functional ApproachRethinking Trading Psychology: A Functional Definition Trading psychology is often misunderstood or overly simplified in trading discourse. Psychology, by definition, is the scientific study of the mind and behavior. When applied to trading, trading psychology should be defined as the study of how our mental processes directly influence market structure through behavior—specifically through the act of placing trades. The Facts: How Humans Influence the Market Traders interact with the market in only a few meaningful ways: Placing entries Setting stop losses Setting take-profit (target) levels Though external variables such as news events can impact decision-making, they only affect where we choose to interact with the market—they do not directly move price. Price only responds to order flow , and all order flow originates from trader decisions. Therefore, these three actions—entries, stops, and targets—are the only real mechanisms through which psychology influences price action. Entry: The Initiator of Market Movement Entries are typically based on structural cues like engulfing candles or order blocks —price zones where a shift in momentum is visible. These areas act as high-probability triggers that prompt traders to take action in a particular direction. When enough buy orders are placed at a bullish signal, we see that reflected in the strength and size of bullish candles. Conversely, strong bearish signals generate concentrated sell-side pressure. This collective order flow initiates price movement—entries are the impulse drivers of the market. Stop Losses: The Creation of Liquidity Pools Once a position is opened, traders generally place stop losses behind significant structure—often just beyond the order block or engulfing pattern that prompted the entry. These zones become liquidity pools —clusters of pending orders that, when triggered, cause mass exits and reallocation of capital. When price returns to these zones, it forces traders out of the market, often resulting in sharp movements or false breakouts. This behavior is not coincidental; it is a byproduct of shared psychological behavior manifesting as clustered risk management. Take-Profits: Delayed Exit Pressure Alongside stop losses, traders also define target levels where they plan to close their trades. These levels can be calculated based on fixed R-multiples (2R, 3R, etc.) or drawn from contextual zones like previous highs/lows or supply and demand areas. As price moves into profit and hits these levels, traders begin to exit en masse. This diminishes order flow in the direction of the trade, often leading to hesitation or minor reversals—much like stop losses do when they are hit. Conclusion: Market Movement vs. Market Stalling To summarize: Entries drive market movement Stop losses and target levels stall or reverse movement This dynamic defines how human behavior—guided by psychological patterns—actually shapes price. In this framework, engulfments represent entry logic , while liquidity zones represent collective exit logic . Redefining Trading Psychology Contrary to popular belief, trading psychology isn’t just about “staying disciplined” or “keeping emotions in check.” While emotional control matters, it’s secondary to understanding how trader behavior creates cause-and-effect loops in price action. Having a trading plan is important—but deviating from that plan is not always due to emotion alone. It can stem from overconfidence, impulsivity, cognitive bias, or poor conditioning. These are psychological behaviors that affect execution, and thus, affect market movement. What’s Next In my next writing, I will explore how the sheer volume of market participants leads to herding behavior —the collective patterns that emerge from mass psychology and their role in creating consolidation zones, liquidity traps, and false breakouts.
Education
by The_Forex_Steward
8
BTCUSD: Decoding the Price Action Through "Tape Reading"🚀 BTCUSD: Decoding the Price Action Through "Tape Reading" 🚀 Hey Traders, Let's dive into a "tape reading" analysis of BTCUSD, breaking down the recent price movements and looking ahead. We've seen some fascinating patterns emerge, and understanding them could be key to our next moves. 🔍 A Look Back: The Bullish Flag Formations 🔍 Our journey begins on April 7th, 2025, with the establishment of a strong "Flag Pole" at $74,489.00. This was supported by a robust double bottom, setting the stage for what was to come. First "Flag" Confirmation: We saw the first "Flag" form, confirmed by a powerful "Hammer" candle on April 20th, 2025. This Hammer, with its unique "bottom-less Marubozu" body, signaled significant underlying strength. Second "Flag" Confirmation: Another "Flag" emerged, solidified by strong multi-day bottom support around $94,791.00. This resilience suggested continued upward momentum. The Breakout: On May 8th, 2025, BTCUSD surged, breaking out of its previous patterns and entering a new "flag pole" formation. Third "Flag" & All-Time High: May 15th, 2025, brought the third "Flag" formation, again supported by a "Hammer" and a bullish Marubozu. This momentum culminated in a breach of the $105,770.00 multi-month price level on May 20th, 2025, breaking the previous all-time high from December 17th, 2024! We then rocketed to a new all-time high of $112,000. 📉 Recent Developments: The Downtrend and Key Levels 📉 Since the all-time high, we've started to experience a shift: Downtrend Begins: A downtrend initiated around May 22nd, 2025. High-Low Formations: We observed a second high-low formation on May 27th, 2025, followed by another on June 9th, 2025. Double Top & Hanging Man: A clear double top formation emerged, further supported by a "Hanging Man" candle on June 10th, 2025. 🔮 What's Next? The Critical Close 🔮 Today's candle close is absolutely paramount! As of now, the candle is still forming, but my current read suggests a potential move to fill the wick of the June 13th, 2025, "Hammer" candle. The direction BTCUSD takes – North or South – will largely be dictated by how today's candle closes. This will be our prime dominant signal. Monthly Candle Perspective: Interestingly, the Monthly candle is showing similar "Flag" patterns. Check out the chart here for a broader perspective: Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! Are you seeing the same patterns? Trade safe! _________________________________________________________________________________ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by shoonya0000
Intraday Gold Trading System with Neural Networks: Step-by-Step________________________________________ 🏆 Intraday Gold Trading System with Neural Networks: Step-by-Step Practical Guide ________________________________________ 📌 Step 1: Overview and Goal The goal is to build a neural network system to predict intraday short-term gold price movements—typically forecasting the next 15 to 30 minutes. ________________________________________ 📈 Step 2: Choosing Indicators (TradingView Equivalents) Key indicators for intraday gold trading: • 📊 Moving Averages (EMA, SMA) • 📏 Relative Strength Index (RSI) • 🌀 Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) • 📉 Bollinger Bands • 📦 Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) • ⚡ Average True Range (ATR) ________________________________________ 🗃 Step 3: Data Acquisition (Vectors and Matrices) Use Python's yfinance to fetch intraday gold data: import yfinance as yf import pandas as pd data = yf.download('GC=F', period='30d', interval='15m') ________________________________________ 🔧 Step 4: Technical Indicator Calculation Use Python’s pandas_ta library to generate all required indicators: import pandas_ta as ta data = ta.ema(data , length=20) data = ta.ema(data , length=50) data = ta.rsi(data , length=14) macd = ta.macd(data ) data = macd data = macd bbands = ta.bbands(data , length=20) data = bbands data = bbands data = bbands data = ta.atr(data , data , data , length=14) data.dropna(inplace=True) ________________________________________ 🧹 Step 5: Data Preprocessing and Matrix Creation Standardize your features and shape data for neural networks: from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler import numpy as np features = scaler = StandardScaler() data_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(data ) def create_matrix(data_scaled, window_size=10): X, y = , for i in range(len(data_scaled) - window_size - 1): X.append(data_scaled ) y.append(data .iloc ) return np.array(X), np.array(y) X, y = create_matrix(data_scaled, window_size=10) ________________________________________ 🤖 Step 6: Neural Network Construction with TensorFlow Use LSTM neural networks for sequential, time-series prediction: import tensorflow as tf from tensorflow.keras.models import Sequential from tensorflow.keras.layers import LSTM, Dense, Dropout model = Sequential( , X.shape )), Dropout(0.2), LSTM(32, activation='relu'), Dense(1) ]) model.compile(optimizer='adam', loss='mse') ________________________________________ 🎯 Step 7: Training the Neural Network history = model.fit(X, y, epochs=50, batch_size=32, validation_split=0.2) ________________________________________ 📊 Step 8: Evaluating Model Performance Visualize actual vs. predicted prices: import matplotlib.pyplot as plt predictions = model.predict(X) plt.plot(y, label='Actual Price') plt.plot(predictions, label='Predicted Price') plt.xlabel('Time Steps') plt.ylabel('Gold Price') plt.legend() plt.show() ________________________________________ 🚦 Step 9: Developing a Trading Strategy Translate predictions into trading signals: def trade_logic(predicted, current, threshold=0.3): diff = predicted - current if diff > threshold: return "Buy" elif diff < -threshold: return "Sell" else: return "Hold" latest_data = X .reshape(1, X.shape , X.shape ) predicted_price = model.predict(latest_data) current_price = data .iloc decision = trade_logic(predicted_price, current_price) print("Trading Decision:", decision) ________________________________________ ⚙️ Step 10: Real-Time Deployment Automate the model for live trading via broker APIs (pseudocode): while market_open: live_data = fetch_live_gold_data() live_data_processed = preprocess(live_data) prediction = model.predict(live_data_processed) decision = trade_logic(prediction, live_data ) execute_order(decision) ________________________________________ 📅 Step 11: Backtesting Use frameworks like Backtrader or Zipline to validate your strategy: import backtrader as bt class NNStrategy(bt.Strategy): def next(self): if self.data.predicted > self.data.close + threshold: self.buy() elif self.data.predicted < self.data.close - threshold: self.sell() cerebro = bt.Cerebro() cerebro.addstrategy(NNStrategy) # Add data feeds and run cerebro cerebro.run() ________________________________________ 🔍 Practical Use-Cases • ⚡ Momentum Trading: EMA crossovers, validated by neural network. • 🔄 Mean Reversion: Trade at Bollinger Band extremes, validated with neural network predictions. • 🌩️ Volatility-based: Use ATR plus neural net for optimal entry/exit timing. ________________________________________ 🛠 Additional Recommendations • Frameworks: TensorFlow/Keras, PyTorch, scikit-learn • Real-time monitoring and risk management are crucial—use volatility indicators! ________________________________________ 📚 Final Thoughts This practical guide arms you to build, deploy, and manage a neural network-based intraday gold trading system—from data acquisition through backtesting—ensuring you have the tools for robust, data-driven, and risk-managed trading strategies. ________________________________________
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by ProjectSyndicate
24
Mitigation Block in Forex Trading: What It Is and How to Use It?What a Mitigation Block Is, and How You Can Use It When Trading Forex? Understanding specific market mechanisms like mitigation blocks may enhance strategic decision-making. This article delves into the concept of mitigation blocks, detailing their definition, function, and practical application within forex. Definition and Function of a Mitigation Block A mitigation block in forex trading refers to a specific order block on a chart that indicates where previous movements have stalled and reversed, marking it as a potential area for future market turns. This concept within the Smart Money framework is crucial for traders looking to manage their positions by taking advantage of strategic entry and exit points. The idea behind these areas is rooted in the dynamics of supply and demand within forex. When a currency pair reaches a level where buyers or sellers have previously entered the market in force, causing a reversal, it suggests a potential repeat of such actions when the price returns to the area. Characteristics and How to Identify a Mitigation Block Mitigation blocks can be bullish or bearish, each with distinct characteristics: - Bearish Mitigation Block: This type forms during an uptrend and is identified by a significant peak followed by a decline and a failed attempt to reach or surpass the previous high, creating a lower high. When prices drop below the previous low, the order block above the low becomes mitigation. It may be characterised by an increase in selling volume as the price approaches the level, signalling resistance and a potential downward reversal. - Bullish Mitigation Block: Conversely, a bullish type is established during a downtrend. It is characterised by a significant trough, followed by a rise to form a higher low, and a failure to drop below the previous low. As the pair moves up, the order block below the high marks mitigation one. This area often shows an increase in buying volume as the price approaches, indicating support and a potential upward reversal. Mitigation Block vs Breaker Block Mitigation and breaker blocks are both significant in identifying potential trend reversals in forex trading, but they have distinct characteristics that set them apart. A mitigation block forms after a failure swing, which occurs when the market attempts but fails to surpass a previous peak in an uptrend or a previous trough in a downtrend. The pattern indicates a loss of momentum and a potential reversal as the price fails to sustain its previous direction. On the other hand, a breaker block is characterised by the formation of a new high or low before the market structure is broken, indicating that liquidity has been taken. This means that although the trend initially looked set to continue, it quickly reverses and breaks structure. In effect, a breaker appears when the market takes liquidity beyond a swing point before reversing the trend. A mitigation appears when the price doesn’t move beyond the trend’s most recent high or low, instead plotting a lower high or higher low before reversing the trend. How to Use Mitigation Blocks in Trading Areas of mitigation in trading can be essential tools for identifying potential trend reversals and entry points. When they align with a trader's analysis that anticipates a reversal at a certain level, it can serve as a robust confirmation for entry. Traders can effectively utilise these zones by simply placing a limit order within the area once it is considered valid. Validation occurs after a new peak or trough is established following the initial failure swing that forms the mitigation area. If a liquidity void or fair-value gap is present, the trader may look for such a gap to be filled before their limit order is triggered, potentially offering a tighter entry. Stop losses might be placed beyond the failure swing or the most extreme point. Furthermore, if a mitigation block is identified on a higher timeframe, traders can refine their entry by switching to a lower timeframe. This approach allows for a tighter entry point and potentially better risk management, as it offers more granular insight into the momentum around the area. Common Mistakes and Limitations While these blocks are valuable for forex trading, they come with potential pitfalls and limitations that traders should know. - Overreliance: Relying solely on mitigation blocks without corroborating with other trading indicators can lead to misjudged entries and exits. - Ignoring Context: Using these zones without considering the broader market conditions may result in trading against a prevailing strong trend. - Misinterpretation: Incorrect identification can lead to erroneous trading decisions, especially for less experienced traders. - False Signals: Mitigation blocks can sometimes appear to signal a reversal but instead lead to a continuation of the trend, trapping traders in unfavourable positions. The Bottom Line Understanding mitigation blocks offers traders a strategic edge in navigating the forex market. They can be vital for recognising potential price reversals and improving trading outcomes. FAQs What Is a Mitigation Block? A mitigation block in forex trading is an order block that identifies potential reversal points. It signals where a currency pair has previously stalled, indicating strong buying or selling pressure, suggesting a potential for similar reactions in future encounters with these levels. How Do You Identify a Mitigation Block? Mitigation blocks are identified by analysing charts for areas where previous highs or lows were not surpassed, leading to a reversal. Traders look for a sequence of movements, including a swing high or low followed by a retracement that fails to exceed the previous swing. What Is the Difference Between a Breaker Block and a Mitigation Block? While both indicate potential reversals, a breaker block forms when the price makes a new high or low before reversing, suggesting a temporary continuation of the trend. In contrast, a mitigation block forms without creating a new extreme, indicating a direct loss of momentum and an immediate potential for reversal. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Trendline Break Retests: The Setup Nobody Talks AboutHello, Traders! 😎 It’s one of crypto's most overlooked yet commonly recurring structures: the trendline break and retest. You’ve probably seen it without even realizing it. A clean trendline gets broken, price pulls away, and then, quietly, almost politely, comes back to “kiss” the line before taking off again. Or dropping. That’s the retest. And in the chaotic crypto world, where hype often drowns out structure, this simple behavior deserves more attention. 🔍 First, What Is a Trendline Really? A crypto trendline connects key highs or lows on a chart, not to predict the future, but to help visualize the mean price trendline: the market's directional bias. In rising markets, we draw support lines connecting higher lows. In falling markets, resistance lines link lower highs. Learning how to draw trendlines in crypto properly is a skill in itself. Use wicks or closes? Log scale or linear? Everyone has a method, but consistency is key. If you’re unsure, zoom out and let the chart speak first. But once that line is broken, something changes. 🧠 Why Breaks (Alone) Are Not Enough In theory, a break of the trendline means momentum has shifted. But in practice? Breaks happen all the time in crypto; many are fakeouts or short-lived. That’s where the trendline break and retest come in. It’s the market asking: “Are we done with this trend?” Retests often create the cleanest entries for trend continuation, not because they guarantee success, but because they offer structure. They provide a technical “moment of truth” when buyers or sellers show their true strength. And if the retest holds? The move that follows tends to be more confident and less noisy. 📐 Trendline Break & Retest: Mapping the Larger Structure Looking across the full BTC/USDT weekly chart, several major shifts can be framed through the lens of trendline crypto behavior, particularly the classic sequence of break → retest → continuation. 🔻 2021–2022: Macro Breakdown After the bull run to ~$69K in 2021, Bitcoin started forming a descending series of lower highs, which gave rise to a macro-level downward trendline — a key reference point for many traders at the time. 🔴 Upper Zone: Failed Retest Cluster The upper horizontal band (~$47K–$52K) highlights a zone where BTC repeatedly attempted to reclaim the broken structure. Each time the price rallied into this region, sellers stepped in, forming local highs and multiple failed retests (marked with red circles). This wasn’t just resistance — it was a battleground where buyers tried to flip the trend… and couldn’t. This behavior often signals a trendline break rejection, where the market tests the underside of prior structure, then resumes the existing trend. 🔴 Lower Zone: Breakdown and Retest That Held The lower zone (~$28K–$32K) was formerly a strong support area during mid-2021. Once it was broken in early 2022, the price returned to retest from below, failing to reclaim it, confirming it had turned into resistance. This is a textbook example of trendline retest turned supply, and after the failed reclaim, BTC slid further into the ~$16K range. ✂️ Late 2023: The Breakout In late 2023, BTC finally broke above the descending trendline, confirming a long-term shift in momentum. Importantly, this wasn’t just a clean breakout. The market returned shortly after to retest the broken trendline, around the $42K–46K range, forming a consolidation zone. 🟩 And Then Came the Retest from Above Let’s fast-forward to early 2024. After months of chop, Bitcoin finally breaks through that upper red zone (the same one that previously acted as resistance and rejection city). But here’s the part many miss: It didn’t just moon. It came back. Look closely at the green zone around ~$46K–$48K, the same area where BTC got rejected multiple times in 2021–2022. And now? Price pulls back, taps that level from above, and holds. That makes this zone so interesting: 👉 It’s a classic “retest from the other side”, where former resistance becomes support. The market is saying: “This level matters. Let’s make sure it holds before we go further.” It’s a quiet confirmation and a great example of how crypto trendlines and price memory shape behavior, even months or years later. 🪞 It’s Not Just About Lines — It’s About Psychology Why does this pattern repeat? Because breakouts are emotional. They create FOMO. Traders rush in. Then the market pauses, tests your conviction, and shakes out the impatient. Retests act like a filter. They flush out the noise — and confirm who’s really in control. That’s why drawing trendlines in crypto isn’t just about geometry. It’s about crowd behavior. When enough traders see the same line, and price respects it after the break, it becomes a self-fulfilling zone of interest. 🧭 A Word of Caution This isn’t a secret formula. Not every trendline crypto setup will play out cleanly. SOME BREAKS NEVER RETEST. SOME RETESTS FAKE YOU OUT. AND SOMETIMES, THE LINE YOU DREW ISN’T THE ONE THE MARKET IS ACTUALLY WATCHING. But if you learn to draw trendlines in crypto clearly, stay patient, and observe the trendline break retest behavior, you’ll begin to see this pattern appear again and again. Quietly. Consistently. It won’t make the headlines like “BTC Hits 100K,” but it might just tell the story behind that move. This is just one example. In reality, charts are full of these zones. Each one tells a part of the story. And honestly, why not listen?
Education
by WhiteBIT
How can I use PEGs to trade Forex?Hello everyone, On May 6, we brought you a technical update on the USD/HKD rate (US dollar VS Hong Kong dollar), as the exchange rate was testing the PEG level of 7.75, defended by the Hong Kong monetary authorities. The PEG therefore provided solid support, and the exchange rate rebounded strongly. It is now under resistance. We'd like to take this opportunity to offer you an educational update on the notion of the PEG in Forex. The link to our May 6 article is just below. What is a PEG and why use it? A PEG, or fixed-rate exchange rate regime, consists of a central bank maintaining its currency at a stable value against a foreign currency, often the US dollar or the euro. This system aims to reduce exchange rate volatility, and is advantageous for a country's trade and investment. It promotes economic stability, particularly in countries that are heavily dependent on a stable currency. PEGs survive thanks to the considerable reserves mobilized by monetary authorities to support the target exchange rate. PEGs can thus create technical supports or resistances that can be worth exploiting, but caution is sometimes called for, as history has shown that some central banks can abruptly stop defending a PEG. 1) Interesting PEGs currently in force Many countries, particularly in the Middle East, Africa and the Caribbean, maintain a fixed rate against the dollar: Bahrain (BHD), Kuwait (KWD), Oman (OMR), Qatar (QAR), Saudi Arabia (SAR), United Arab Emirates (AED), Panama (PAB). The CFA franc (XOF/XAF), used in 14 African countries, is pegged to the euro at 655.957 CFA per euro. Some PEGs use a currency board or fluctuation band, such as the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) via a band of 7.75-7.85 HKD per USD. This is the support we shared with you on May 6, and the price rebounded strongly. The case of the Singapore dollar (the USD/SGD rate) illustrates yet another sophisticated form of intermediate exchange rate regime. Unlike a fixed-rate policy or a free float, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) steers the value of the SGD through a regime based on a basket of weighted commercial currencies, the exact composition of which remains confidential. This system is based on an unannounced fluctuation band around a central rate, also unpublished. 2) Historical and discontinued PEGs (the landmark episode of the 1.20 PEG on the EUR/CHF rate) The 1.20 PEG between the euro (EUR) and the Swiss franc (CHF) is one of the most significant episodes in the recent history of European exchange rate policies. Here is a detailed summary of this PEG and its spectacular abandonment in January 2015. In September 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) set a floor of CHF 1.20 to EUR 1, i.e. a unilateral PEG (not a classic fixed rate, but a floor rate). On January 15, 2015, the SNB abandoned the PEG without notice, citing the growing divergence between the monetary policies of the ECB (falling rates) and the United States. The immediate result: a historic crash on the Forex market. The EUR/CHF rate dropped instantly from 1.20 to around 0.85-0.90, before stabilizing at around 1.00. The Swiss franc appreciates by almost 30% in a matter of minutes, causing forex intermediaries to go bankrupt, Swiss exporting companies to suffer huge losses and, above all, retail investors who had staked a lot on preserving the CHF 1.15 support level to suffer huge trading losses. 3) The case of the Yuan exchange rate against the US dollar Another emblematic example is that of China, whose exchange rate regime against the US dollar is not a classic PEG, but a hybrid system often referred to as managed floating. Prior to 2005, the yuan (CNY) was firmly pegged to the dollar at a fixed rate of 8.28, maintained since 1994. In 2005, Beijing decided to make this mechanism more flexible, allowing the yuan to appreciate gradually. However, in the face of the global financial crisis, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) once again froze the rate at around 6.83 until 2010. Since then, the regime has evolved towards a more sophisticated system: every morning, the central bank publishes a USD/CNY reference rate, around which the currency is allowed to fluctuate within a narrow band of plus or minus 2%. This daily fixing is based both on recent market movements and on a basket of strategic currencies. Although this system is not a formal PEG. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Education
by Swissquote
How to Draw Support & Resistance In TradingViewLearn how to effectively identify, draw, and utilize support and resistance levels in TradingView with this comprehensive step-by-step tutorial. Whether you're a beginner trader or looking to refine your technical analysis skills, this video covers everything you need to know about one of the most fundamental concepts in trading. What You'll Learn: Understanding support and resistance: the foundation of technical analysis and price action trading Step-by-step instructions for drawing horizontal support and resistance lines in TradingView Creating support and resistance zones for more flexible trading approaches Practical tips for using TradingView's drawing tools effectively This tutorial may be helpful for day traders, swing traders, and investors using TradingView who want to improve their chart analysis skills. The techniques covered could help you make more informed entry and exit decisions by understanding where price might find support or encounter resistance. Visit Optimus Futures to learn more about trading futures with TradingView: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by OptimusFutures
1
Trading the VIXOften dubbed the "fear index," the VIX gauges SPX options' implied volatility, typically rising during equity market declines and vice versa. It quantifies investor anxiety, demand for hedging, and market stress, crucial for traders and risk managers seeking to measure turbulence. The VIX calculates a constant 30-day implied volatility using SPX options expiring over the next two months. Unlike simple weighted averages of equity indices, its methodology is more complex, involving implied variance calculation for the two nearest monthly expirations across all strikes. For detailed formulas, refer to the introductory chart or visit the CBOE’s official VIX Index page. While the VIX Index itself isn’t tradable, exposure can be gained through VIX futures or exchange-traded products (ETPs) like VXX, UVXY, and SVXY. However, these instruments come with their own unique risks, pricing behaviors, and structural nuances, which can make directional VIX trading considerably more complex than it might initially appear. What You Need to Know About Implied Volatilities • In calm or uptrending markets, the volatility curve typically slopes upward (contango), indicating higher implied volatility with longer maturities. • In declining or turbulent markets, the curve can invert, sloping downward (backwardation), as shorter-term implied volatilities rise sharply. • This pattern can be observed, comparing VIX9D, VIX, and VIX3M against the SPX. In stable markets: VIX9D < VIX < VIX3M. In stressed markets, this relationship may reverse. The VIX9D and VIX3M are the 9-day respectively 3-month equivalent to the 30-day VIX. What You Need to Know About VIX Futures • When the volatility spot curve is in contango, the VIX futures curve will also slope upward. • In backwardation, the futures curve slopes downward, reflecting heightened short-term volatility and short-term volatility spikes. • While in contango, VIX futures "roll down the curve," meaning that—independent of changes in volatility—futures tend to decline in value over time. • In backwardation, the opposite occurs: futures "roll up the curve," potentially rising in value over time even without volatility changes. • VIX futures’ responsiveness to VIX Index movements – the beta of VIX futures against the VIX index - declines with longer expirations; front-month futures may react to 70-80% of VIX changes, compared to 40-60% for third or fourth-month futures. Key Consequences for Traders • Directional trading of VIX futures can be strongly influenced by the shape of the futures curve. • Contango in low-VIX environments creates strong headwinds for long VIX futures positions, caused by the “roll-down-effect”. • Conversely, backwardation in high-VIX environments creates headwinds for short positions. • These effects are more pronounced in front-month contracts, making timing (entry and exit) for directional trades critical. • There's a trade-off in directional strategies: front-month futures offer greater exposure to VIX movements but suffer more from negative roll effects. How to Trade VIX Futures • Due to these structural challenges, directional VIX futures trading is difficult and requires precision. • A more effective approach is to trade changes in the shape of the futures curve using calendar spreads (e.g., long VX1, short VX2). This reduces the impact of roll effects on individual contracts. • In low-VIX, contango conditions, a rising VIX typically leads to VX1 increasing faster than VX2, widening the VX1–VX2 spread—an opportunity for spread trading. • While VX1 may initially suffer more from roll-down than VX2, this can reverse as the VIX rises and VX1 begins to “roll up,” especially when VIX > VX1 but VX1 < VX2. • The opposite dynamic applies in high-VIX, backwardation environments. • More broadly, changes in the shape of the futures curve across the first 6–8 months can be profitably traded using calendar spreads. Roll-effects and the declining beta-curve can also be efficiently traded. How to capture the Roll-Down-Effect One of the more popular VIX-trading strategies involves capturing the roll-down effect,, while the curve is in contango. It is a positive carry strategy that is best applied during calm or uptrending market conditions. Here’s a straightforward set of guidelines to implement the Roll-Down-Carry trade: • Entry Condition: Initiate during calm market conditions, ideally when VIX9D-index is below VIX-index (though not guaranteed). • Choosing Futures: Use VX1 and VX2 for calendar spreads if VX1 has more than 8-10 trading days left; otherwise, consider VX2 and VX3. • Spread Analysis: Short VX1 and long VX2 if VX1–VIX spread is larger than VX2–VX1; otherwise, VX2 and VX3 may be suitable. • Contango Effect: VX1’s roll-down effect typically outweighs VX2’s during contango. • Relative Beta: VX1 shows higher reactivity to VIX changes compared to VX2, mimicking a slight short position on VIX. • Exit Strategy: Use spread values, take-profit (TP), and stop-loss (SL); consider exiting if VIX9D crosses over VIX. ________________________________________ Conclusion Directional trading of the VIX Index—typically through futures—demands precise timing and a good understanding of the volatility curve. This is because curve dynamics such as contango and backwardation can create significant headwinds or tailwinds, often working against a trader’s position regardless of the VIX’s actual movement. As a result, purely directional trades are not only difficult to time but also structurally disadvantaged in many market environments. A more strategic and sustainable approach is to trade calendar spreads, which involves taking offsetting positions in VIX futures of different maturities. This method helps neutralize the impact of the curve's overall slope and focuses instead on relative changes between expirations. While it doesn’t eliminate all risk, calendar spread trading significantly reduces the drag from roll effects and still offers numerous opportunities to profit from shifts in market sentiment, volatility expectations, and changes in the shape of the futures curve. What else can be done with VIX instruments VIX indices across different maturities (VIX9D, VIX, VIX3M), along with VIX futures, offer valuable insights and potential entry signals for trading SPX or SPX options. In Part 2 of the Trading the VIX series, we’ll explore how to use these tools—along with VIX-based ETPs—for structured trading strategies.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by parsifaltrading
Mastering Liquidity Dynamics: Understand the Dynamic True ValueDear Reader, Thank you for reading—your time is valuable. Use the chart's zoom-in/out (-/+) function for better visibility. This chart captures a large sample for your evaluation. Below is the manual detailing the Smart Farmer System —a Dynamic True Value framework derived from real-time data to anticipate market intent and liquidity behavior . If this resonates with you, drop a comment below— constructive insights are always welcome . The Dynamic True Value - a Smart Farmer System: Terminology and Mechanics : For now, I have firmed up POC - Price of Control, VAP - Value Average Pricing, SULB - Sell Upper Limit Bound, BLLB - Buy Lower Limit Bound. Mechanic: POC - Where fair value price dynamic is read. VAP - Trading above indicates bullish sentiment of the cycle, and the opposite for bearish sentiment. A crossed over of: Grey POC above Green VAP - Signaling distribution, accumulation, consolidation, build-ups, correction, retracement . Green VAP above Grey POC - Bullish strength and momentum consistency . Pink VAP above Black POC - Bearish strength and momentum consistency . Flip of Pink VAP to Green VAP - Sentiment flips from bear to bull, and the same goes for green flip to pink showing bull to bear. Validation of entry signals requires: Signal's candle must close past the opposite side of POC – flip sentiment . The confirmation candle (is the closed next candle immediately after entry signal candle) must continue closed past the POC – maintain sentiment . The progress candle (is the next candle closed right after the Confirmation Candle) shows traction, momentum build-up, and volume consistency . Hint of invalidation: Signal's candle is considered void if the next candle prints a new entry signal in the opposite direction. This often signals accumulation, sideways movement, build-up, uncertainty, or swings in range . The immediate next candle closed past POC to the opposite side. What to understand about Liquidity Trap, SULB, and BLLB: Liquidity traps Often occur at the recent/previous flatlines of Dynamic True Value (POC, VAP, SULB, BLLB) . It is worth paying attention to the market’s intent and institutional positioning. Signs of exhaustion, absorption, inducement, offloading, and accumulation are visible in the M1 (one-minute) TF, with significant confluence near the previous/recent flatlines of Dynamic True Value in the higher/macro-TFs. An Anchored VWAP tool can be helpful for filtering noise in the market. This tool can be found in the drawing tab in the TradingView platform. SULB Details the dynamic of upper resistance where Bears remain in control below the dynamic level. Below this limit bound (LB) , bears show strength – bear sentiment . A converging price toward this LB indicates bulls are present. Moving past this LB (a candle closed above) and successfully RETESTING newly formed support indicates a confirmed directional shift . Followed by printing a new BLLB in the next following candles with price continuing to rise above this failed SULB. A rejection below LB (a rejection/exhausted candle closed below LB) and successful RETEST reaffirms the resistance holds , indicating downside continuation . BLLB Details the dynamic of lower support where Bulls remain in control above the dynamic level. Above this LB, bulls show strength – bull sentiment . A converging price toward this LB signifies bears are present. Moving past this LB (a candle closed below) and successfully RETESTING newly formed resistance indicates a confirmed directional shift . Followed by printing a new SULB in the next following candles with price continuing to push lower below this failed BLLB. A rejection above LB (a rejection/exhausted candle closed above LB) and successful RETEST reaffirms the support holds , indicating upward continuation . Important Notes: Select preferred Entry’s Signal TF (ex. M3 TF, M5 TF for scalping strategy, M15 for intraday/daily strategy, 4H TF for day-to-weekly strategy, etc.). Always refer to the selected Entry’s TF for trading progress. Anticipate TP and SL by watching the range in this TF. Non-entry TFs are not for entry purposes. These multi-TFs are used for measuring strength, momentum, liquidity, positioning, structure – The market intends . The Non-entry TF is used to anticipate institutional executions and liquidity pools. These criteria MUST BE MET. A failed criterion suggests vague execution. Be patient and wait for clear validations. Institutions excel in creating illusions. SFS is designed to stand ready, calm, and execute with Clarity. SFS cuts through noise, distraction, and stays independent of NEWS, GEOPOLITIC, RUMORS, and herd mentality because all these are designed to mislead retail traders into institutional traps. When we see such ambiguity against the criteria, we know not to fall into the TRAP and become the liquidity FUEL. Stay sharp, only respond when signals are firmed. SFS is designed to counter Smart Money capitalism. It is about time to level the playing field.
TRADENATIONSB:XAUUSDEducation
by jerryfc000
1
Differences Between Trading Stock Market and Coin Market Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- Please read with a light heart. - Trading stock market and coin market seem similar, but they are very different. In stock market, you have to buy and sell 1 share at a time, but in coin market, you can buy and sell in decimals. This difference makes a big difference in buying and selling. In the stock market, you should buy when the price is rising from a low price if possible. The reason is that since you buy in units of 1 week, you have to invest more money when you sell and then buy to buy 1 week. I think the same goes for the coin market, but since you can buy in decimal units, you have the advantage of being able to buy at a higher price than when you buy in the stock market. For example, if you sell and then buy again at the same price, the number of coins (tokens) will decrease, but there will be no cases where you can't buy at all. Therefore, the coin market is an investment market where you can trade at virtually any price range. - In terms of profit realization, the stock market can only be traded in a way that earns cash profits. The reason is that, as I mentioned earlier, since you have to trade in units of 1 week, there are restrictions on trading. However, in the coin market, in addition to the method of earning cash profits, you can also increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profits. The biggest advantage of increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit is that you can get a large profit in the long term, and the burden of the average purchase price when conducting a transaction is reduced. When the price rises by purchase price, if you sell the purchase amount (+ including the transaction fee), the coins (tokens) corresponding to profit will remain. Since these coins (tokens) have an average purchase price of 0, they always correspond to profit even if there is volatility. In addition, even if the price falls and you buy again, the average purchase price is set low, so it plays a good role in finding the right time to buy and starting a transaction. Of course, when the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit is small, it does not have a big effect on the average purchase price, but as the number increases, you will realize its true value. You can also get some cash when you increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit. When selling, if you add up the purchase price + transaction fee X 2~3, you can also get some cash profit. If you get cash profit, the number of coins (tokens) remaining will decrease, so you can adjust it well according to the situation. When the profit is large, increase the cash profit slightly, and when you think the profit is small, decrease the cash profit. - Therefore, when you first move from the stock market to the coin market and start trading, you will experience that the trading is not going well for some reason. In the stock market, there are some restrictions on the rise and fall, but in the coin market, there are no restrictions, so it is not easy to respond. However, as I mentioned earlier, the biggest problem is the difference in the transaction unit. When trading in the stock market, you need to check various announcements and issues in addition to the chart and determine how this information affects the stock or theme you want to trade. This is because trading is not conducted 24 hours a day, 365 days a year like the coin market. This is because if an announcement or issue occurs during a non-trading period, the stock market may rise or fall significantly when trading begins. - When using my chart on a stock chart, the basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator. However, if you want to buy more, you can buy more when the M-Signal of the 1D chart > M-Signal of the 1W chart, and it shows support near the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart. In the stock chart, it is recommended to trade when the M-Signal indicators of the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts are aligned. The reason is that, as I mentioned earlier, trading must be done in 1-week units, so the timing of the purchase is important. In the coin chart, you can actually trade when it shows support at the support and resistance points. However, since trading is possible 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, even if it shows support at the support and resistance points, psychological anxiety due to volatility increases, so it is recommended to proceed with trading according to the basic trading strategy. The creation of the HA-Low indicator means that it has risen from the low range, and the creation of the HA-High indicator means that it has fallen from the high range. Therefore, if it shows support near the HA-Low indicator, it is likely to rise, and if it shows resistance near the HA-High indicator, it is likely to fall. However, on the contrary, if it is supported and rises at the HA-High indicator, it is likely to show a stepwise rise, and if it is resisted and falls at the HA-Low indicator, it is likely to show a stepwise fall. In order to confirm this movement, you need to invest a lot of time and check the situation in real time. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
True Range Price ActionThis chart shows the tools needed to analyze price action using true range of moves. If you are master in multi-timeframe analysis, this method will give you precision. Setups have master, pattern, and trigger timeframe parts. The relation between timeframes of a setup are as follows: master timeframe is highest timeframe for setup, pattern timeframe is one lower fractal timeframe, and trigger timeframe is two lower fractal timeframe, both relative to the master timeframe. Fractal timeframes respectively are: M, W, D, H4, H1, M15, M5, M1. Two main setups are trading based on return, and trading based on break. Trading based on return consists of two sub-setups: trading based on pivot setup for reverse pivot, and trading based on area nature setup for settlement pivot. Trading based on break setup or trend pivot setup, and trading based on area magnet setup. Each setup has a trigger line entry in its trigger timeframe as following: area nature setup trigger line, return to pivot trigger line, magnet trigger line, and pullback trigger line.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by Alireza-Davari
1
What Is a Morning Star Pattern & How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is a Morning Star Pattern, and How Can You Use It in Trading? The morning star candlestick is a popular price action pattern that technical analysts and traders use to identify potential trading opportunities. It indicates a reversal from a bearish to a bullish trend and is a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit. In this article, we will cover all the technical aspects of the morning star candlestick pattern. What Is the Morning Star Candlestick Pattern? The morning star in technical analysis is a reversal formation that appears at the end of a downtrend and signals a trend reversal. It consists of three candles. To identify it on the chart, you should look for the following: 1. Downtrend: The market should be in a downtrend, and the first candle should be long and bearish. 2. Indecision: The second candle is usually expected to have a gap down, but gaps are uncommon in forex. Therefore, a small-bodied candle is considered sufficient. It's worth noting it can be either bullish or bearish, but if it’s bullish, the signal is stronger. 3. Significant increase: The third candle should be strong and bullish and close above the midpoint of the first bearish one. If it forms with a gap up, the buy signal is considered stronger. When Morning Star Candlestick Patterns Occur Traders can identify the morning star candlestick pattern in stocks, forex pairs, commodities, and cryptocurrencies*. It may also be observed across various timeframes, from minutes to weeks. Generally speaking, a morning star pattern can be considered more reliable when it appears on a higher timeframe. For instance, a morning star candlestick pattern has more significance when it occurs over three days vs three minutes, given the increased amount of price action and market participation reflected over longer periods. Psychology Behind the Pattern The morning star reversal pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Initially, a strong bearish candle indicates prevailing selling pressure. The second candle, with its small body, suggests indecision as the market stabilises and neither bulls nor bears dominate. This pause indicates that sellers are losing momentum. The third morning star candle, a strong bullish one, confirms the shift as buyers take control, driving prices higher. This pattern signals that the downtrend is likely exhausted, and a potential reversal is underway due to increasing buyer confidence. Trading with the Morning Star Traders can use the following steps to trade this setup: 1. Identify the setup: Look for a setup on the chart formed after a solid downtrend. 2. Confirmation: After identifying the formation, traders should confirm it before entering a long position. 3. Enter a long position: Consider entering a long position once the formation is confirmed. 4. Determine a take-profit target: Although candlesticks don’t provide specific entry and exit points, traders may consider the closest resistance level to take potential profit. 5. Monitor the trade: Continuously monitor the trade and adjust the stop-loss and take-profit levels as needed based on market conditions. What Is the Morning Star Candlestick Strategy? The morning star trading strategy leverages the formation's ability to signal a bullish reversal after a downtrend. The formation's reliability increases when it occurs at a support level and is confirmed by a momentum indicator like the RSI or MACD. Entry: - Traders look for the full morning star to form at a support level. - They then look for a confirmatory bullish signal from a momentum indicator, such as RSI showing oversold conditions, a bullish MACD crossover, or a bullish divergence in either. - Traders may wait for additional confirmation, like RSI moving back above 30, or enter on the close of the third candle in the pattern. Stop Loss: - A stop loss might be set below the swing low of the setup. - Alternatively, traders may place the stop loss beyond the lower boundary of the established support level. Take Profit: - Profits might be taken at a predetermined risk-reward ratio, like 2:1 or 3:1. - Traders also often aim for an opposing resistance level where a further reversal might occur. Morning Star and Other Formations Traders should not confuse the morning star candle formation with other formations, such as the evening star, which is the complete opposite. Doji Morning Star In a traditional morning star reversal pattern, the candle that appears in the middle of the formation has a small real body, meaning there is a clear difference between the opening and closing prices. In a morning doji star formation, the second candlestick has characteristics of a doji, where the opening and closing prices are very close to each other, resulting in a very small real body. This reflects the indecision as neither bulls nor bears can take control of the market. The doji setup is less common than the traditional formation, but it still signals a potential upward movement after a prolonged downtrend. Evening Star In contrast to a morning setup, an evening star is a bearish setup occurring after an uptrend. It also consists of three candles – a long bullish one, a small-body one (it can also be a doji), and a long bearish one that closes below the midpoint of the first bullish candle. This suggests that the market is about to turn down. Benefits and Limitations of the Morning Star Candle The morning star is a useful tool for traders seeking to identify potential market reversals, but it does come with some benefits and limitations. Benefits - Strong Reversal Signal: Indicates a bullish reversal after a downtrend, helping traders anticipate upward moves. - Broad Applicability: Effective across various financial instruments such as forex, stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies*. - Timeframe Flexibility: It can be observed on different timeframes, from intraday to weekly charts. Limitations - False Signals: Like all patterns, it can produce false signals, especially in volatile markets. - Confirmation Needed: A morning star pattern entry requires confirmation from additional indicators or formations to improve accuracy. - Experience Required: Identifying the formation correctly and interpreting its signals requires experience and a good understanding of price action. Final Thoughts While candlestick formations such as the morning star can be useful for traders to identify potential trading opportunities, it is crucial to remember that they are not foolproof and should not be the sole choice of market participants when making their trading decisions. Traders should also incorporate technical indicators and develop risk management techniques to potentially minimise losses. FAQ What Is a Morning Star in Trading? The meaning of a morning star in trading refers to a bullish reversal formation consisting of three candles. It appears at the end of a downtrend, indicating a potential shift to an uptrend. The setup includes a long bearish candle, a small-bodied candle, and a long bullish candle. Is the Morning Star Bullish or Bearish? It is a bullish candlestick pattern that indicates a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend in the market. It suggests that the selling pressure is subsiding, and buying pressure is beginning to take over. What Does the Morning Star Pattern Indicate? It is a three-candle price action, often indicating a bullish reversal in the market. It suggests that selling pressure has been exhausted, and buyers are starting to gain control of the market. How Do You Read the Morning Star Pattern? To read the morning star formation, traders should look for the following characteristics: a long bearish candle formed in a solid downtrend and followed by a bullish or bearish candle with a small real body, which in turn is followed by a long bullish candle closing above the midpoint of the first one. What Is the Opposite of Morning Star? The opposite of a morning star is the evening star, a bearish reversal pattern. It appears at the end of an uptrend, signalling a potential shift to a downtrend. The morning and evening stars are similar, except the latter mirrors the former, consisting of a long bullish candle, a small-bodied candle, and a long bearish candle. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Guide: How to Read the Smart Farmer SystemDear Reader , Thank you for tuning in to my first video publication. This video explains the 3-step signal validation process—helping you quickly and precisely anticipate market intent and liquidity dynamics before taking action. We do not react to noise; we respond with structured execution because we understand the market’s true game. Listen to the market— this guide is here to sharpen your journey. Correction Notice (16:58 timestamp): A slight clarification on the statement regarding signal validation : SELL signals: The trading price must close BELOW the Price of Control (POC) and Value Average Pricing (VAP) without invalidation occurring in both the confirmation candle and progress candle. BUY signals: The trading price must close ABOVE the Price of Control (POC) and Value Average Pricing (VAP) without invalidation occurring in both the confirmation candle and progress candle. Multiple signals indicate liquidity games are actively unfolding, including accumulation, control, distribution, and offloading.
TRADENATIONSB:XAUUSDEducation
by jerryfc000
1
Position Sizing 101: How Not to Blow Up Your Account OvernightWelcome to the trading equivalent of wearing a seatbelt. Not really exciting but entirely recommended for its lifesaving properties. When the market crashes into your stop-loss at 3:47 a.m., you’ll wish you’d taken this lesson seriously. Let’s talk position sizing — the least flashy but most essential tool in your trading kit. This is your friendly reminder that no matter how perfect your chart setup looks, if you’re risking 50% of your capital on a single trade, you’re not trading. You’re gambling. And also — if you lose 50% of your account, you have to gain 100% to get even. ✋ “Sir, This Isn’t a Casino” Let’s start with a story. New trader. Fresh demo account turned real. He sees a clean breakout. He YOLOs half his account into Tesla ( TSLA ). "This is it," he thinks, "the trade that changes everything." News flash: it did change everything — his $10,000 account turned into $2,147 in 48 hours. The lesson? Position sizing isn’t just about managing capital. It’s about managing ego. Because the market doesn’t care how convinced you are. 🌊 Risk of Ruin: The More You Know There’s a lovely concept in trading called “risk of ruin.” Sounds dramatic — and it is. It refers to the likelihood of your account going to zero if you keep trading the way you do. If you risk 10% of your account on every trade, you only need to be wrong a few times in a row to go from “pro trader” to “Hey, ChatGPT, is trading a scam?” Risking 1–2% per trade, however? Now we’re talking sustainability. Now you can be wrong ten times in a row and still live to click another chart. 🎯 The Math That Saves You Let’s illustrate the equation: Position size = Account size × % risk / (Entry – Stop Loss) Example: $10,000 account, risking 1%, with a 50-point stop loss on a futures trade. $10,000 × 0.01 = $100 $100 / 50 = 2 contracts That’s it. No Fibonacci razzle-dazzle or astrology needed. Just basic arithmetic and a willingness to not be a hero. 🤔 The Myth of Conviction Every trader has a moment where they say: “I know this is going to work.” Spoiler alert: You don’t. And the moment you convince yourself otherwise, you start increasing position size based on emotion, not logic. That’s where accounts go to die. Even the greats keep it tight. Paul Tudor Jones, the legend himself, once said: “Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.” Translation: size down, cowboy. 🔔 Position Size ≠ Trade Size A common mistake: confusing position size with trade size. Trade size is how big your order is. Position size is how much of your total capital is being risked. You could be trading 10 lots — but if your stop loss is tight, your position size might still be conservative. So yes, trade big. But only if your risk is small. You’ll do better at this once you figure out how asymmetric risk reward works. 🌦️ Losses Happen. Don’t Let Them Compound Let’s say you lose 5% on a trade. No big deal, right? Until you try to “make it back” by doubling down on the next one. And then again. And suddenly, you’re caught in a death spiral of revenge trading . This is not theoretical. It’s Tuesday morning for many traders. Proper position sizing cushions the blow. It turns what would be a catastrophe into a lesson — maybe even a mildly annoying Tuesday. 🌳 It’s Not Just About Risk — It’s About Freedom Smart sizing gives you flexibility (and a good night’s sleep). Want to hold through some noise? You can. Want to scale in? You’re allowed. Want to sleep at night without hugging your laptop? Welcome to emotional freedom. Jesse Livermore, arguably the most successful trader of all time, said it best: “If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.” ⛳ What the Pros Actually Do Here’s a dirty little secret: pros rarely go all-in without handling the risk part first (that is, calibrating the position size). If they’re not allocating small portions of capital across uncorrelated trades, they’ll go big on a trade that has an insanely-well controlled risk level. That way, if the trade turns against them, they’ll only lose what they can afford to lose and stay in the game. Another great one, Stanley Druckenmiller, who operated one of the best-returning hedge funds (now a family office) said: “I believe the best way to manage risk is to be bullish when you have a compelling risk/reward.” 🏖️ The Summer of FOMO Let’s address the seasonal vibes. Summer’s here. Volume’s thin. Liquidity’s weird. Breakouts don’t follow through. Every false move looks like the real deal until it isn’t. And every poolside Instagram story from your trader friend makes you want to hit that buy button harder. This is where position sizing saves you from yourself. Small trades, wide stops, chill mindset. Or big trades, tight stops, a bit of excitement in your day. No matter what you choose, make sure to get your dose of daily news every morning, keep your eye on the economic calendar , and stay sharp on any upcoming earnings reports (GameStop NYSE:GME is right around the corner, delivering Tuesday). ☝️ Final Thoughts: The Indicator You Control In a world of lagging indicators, misleading news headlines, and “experts” selling you dreams, position sizing is one of the few things you have total control over. And that makes it powerful. So next time you feel the rush — the urge to go big — take a breath. Remember the math. Remember the odds. And remember: the fastest way to blow up isn’t a bad trade — it’s a good trade sized wrong. Off to you: How are you handling your trading positions? Are you the type to go all-in and then think about the downside? Or you’re the one to think about the risk first and then the reward? Let us know in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
27
My XAUUSD Scalping Strategy: Entry, Stop Loss & Management🔹 How I Think About Trading My core trading principle is simple: capital preservation first, then profit-seeking. While catching an entire move from start to finish can be exciting, it usually comes with greater risk. Rather than entering once and holding the full position, I prefer to scale into the move in phases. I take an initial entry with a tight stop, and once the trade moves in my favor, I take partial profits — typically reducing 70% of the position (as I’ll explain in the next section). If the market then breaks through the next key level, I re-enter using the same approach: tight stop, defined risk, and partial profits as the move extends. I repeat this process as the trend develops. Instead of trying to hold from bottom to top in a single position, I reduce risk at each stage and use fresh entries to stay aligned with market momentum. The final portion of each trade — what I call the “runner” — is left to ride further price movement. This method keeps me engaged in the trend while tightly managing risk on every position. To me, trading is a game of probabilities. We use structure and tools to filter out noise and increase our win rate. That’s why I believe in maintaining a consistent risk-reward ratio — it should never be changed emotionally or impulsively 🔹 How I Enter a Trade As a scalper trading XAUUSD: 1. I identify the trend using the 30-minute and 15-minute charts 2. I confirm setups on the 5-minute chart 3. I enter a trade with precision on the 1-minute chart 4. I align all entries with the key levels I share daily My stop losses are always tight — typically within a $1 to $3 range. 🔹 How I Manage a Trade For example, if 3350 is a key level, I’ll wait for price to approach it closely so I can enter with a tight stop — say, at 3349. Once in the trade, my conservative management approach is: 1. Take 70% profit after price moves $1 in my favor(e.g., if I buy around 3350 with a 3349 stop loss, and price reaches 3351, I’ll close 70% of the position) 2. Let the remaining 30% run to capture additional upside 3. Optional: Move the stop loss to breakeven, depending on your risk tolerance 3. Trim at intraday pivot levels or structure zones This method is especially effective for new traders — it locks in early gains while keeping part of the position open for larger moves, all without increasing risk.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Ombabibi
Altcoins in Focus: Aptos, KAIA, and Ravencoin (RVN)Amid Bitcoin’s rapid growth and renewed interest in Ethereum, investors are increasingly turning their attention to altcoins—alternative cryptocurrencies showing strong potential for sharp gains. As of early June 2025, Aptos (APT), KAIA, and Ravencoin (RVN) stand out for their price surges and growing interest from major exchanges and analysts. Aptos, a next-generation blockchain platform developed by former Meta (ex-Diem) engineers, has secured its place among the top 50 by market cap. In recent days, the token broke through a resistance level at $9.20, signaling a possible continuation of the uptrend. Its appeal lies in its scalability and its unique MoveVM architecture, which makes it attractive for developers in DeFi and NFT applications. KAIA, a new token in the AI and metaverse ecosystem, gained over 15% this week following a Binance listing and integration with several major Web3 projects. Investors see KAIA as a potential “new Render,” focusing on neural computation and digital identity infrastructure. Ravencoin (RVN), a long-time presence in the crypto space, is regaining popularity. With its focus on asset tokenization and copyright protection on the blockchain, RVN surged 14% after announcing partnerships with several independent music platforms. The rise of these altcoins demonstrates that there is room in the crypto world not just for the giants, but also for innovative, purpose-driven projects capable of capturing market and user interest.
BINGX:ALTCOINUSDT.PEducation
by HCN-News12
Quick Lesson: Slow & Fast Flows (Study it & Benefit in Trading)It is always important to look not only at levels (supports/resistances), but how exactly price moves within them. On the left side , we see a slow flow—a controlled and gradual decline. Sellers are patient, offloading positions over time into visible liquidity levels. Each dip is met with small bids, creating a staircase-like drop. This kind of move doesn’t trigger panic immediately, but it’s dangerous because it builds up pressure. Eventually, when buyers dry up, a larger breakdown happens. On contrary, the right side shows a fast flow. Here, a large sell order slams into a thin order book, causing an immediate price spike down. There's little resistance, and multiple levels are skipped. This creates an inefficient move, often forming a sharp wick. These fast drops are typically caused by fear, liquidation, or aggressive exit orders. But what’s interesting is the recovery: because the move was so aggressive and liquidity was so thin, price can snap back up quickly. These are often V-shaped reversals with low resistance on the way back. Try to look for such setups on the chart and learn how the price behaves . Studying such cases will help you identifying upcoming sell-offs/pumps and earn on them.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by RobertMercer
14
Heatwaves and Wheat: How Temperature Shocks Hit Prices🌾 Section 1: The Wheat–Weather Connection—Or Is It? If there’s one crop whose success is often tied to the weather forecast, it’s wheat. Or so we thought. For decades, traders and analysts have sounded the alarm at the mere mention of a heatwave in key wheat-producing regions. The logic? Excessive heat during the growing season can impair wheat yields by disrupting pollination, shortening the grain-filling period, or damaging kernel development. A tightening supply should lead to price increases. Simple enough, right? But here’s where the story takes an unexpected turn. What happens when we actually analyze the data? Does heat reliably lead to price spikes in the wheat futures market? The short answer: not exactly. In fact, our statistical tests show that temperature may not have the consistent, directional impact on wheat prices that many traders believe it does. And that insight could change how you think about risk, seasonality, and the role of micro contracts in your wheat trading strategy. 📈 Section 2: The Economics of Wheat—And Its Role in the Futures Market Wheat isn’t just a breakfast staple—it’s the most widely grown crop in the world. It’s cultivated across North America, Europe, Russia, Ukraine, China, and India, making it a truly global commodity. Because wheat is produced and consumed everywhere, its futures markets reflect a wide array of influences: weather, geopolitics, global demand, and speculative positioning. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), operated by CME Group, is the main venue for wheat futures trading. It offers two primary wheat contracts: Standard Wheat Futures (ZW) Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Tick Size: 1/4 cent per bushel (0.0025) has a $12.50 per tick impact Margin Requirement: Approx. $1,700 (subject to change) Micro Wheat Futures (MZW) Contract Size: 500 bushels (1/10th the size of the standard contract) Tick Size: 0.0050 per bushel has a $2.50 per tick impact Margin Requirement: Approx. $170 (subject to change) These micro contracts have transformed access to grain futures markets. Retail traders and smaller funds can now gain precise exposure to weather-driven moves in wheat without the capital intensity of the full-size contract. 🌡️ Section 3: Weather Normalization—A Smarter Way to Measure Impact When analyzing weather, using raw temperature values doesn’t paint the full picture. What’s hot in Canada might be normal in India. To fix this, we calculated temperature percentiles per location over 40+ years of historical weather data. This gave us three weekly categories: Below 25th Percentile (Low Temp Weeks) 25th to 75th Percentile (Normal Temp Weeks) Above 75th Percentile (High Temp Weeks) Using this approach, we grouped thousands of weeks of wheat futures data and examined how price returns behaved under each condition. This way, we could compare a “hot” week in Ukraine to a “hot” week in the U.S. Midwest—apples to apples. 🔄 Section 4: Data-Driven Temperature Categories and Wheat Returns To move beyond anecdotes and headlines, we then calculated weekly percent returns for wheat futures (ZW) for each of the three percentile-based categories. What we found was surprising. Despite common assumptions that hotter weeks push wheat prices higher, the average returns didn’t significantly increase during high-temperature periods. However, something else did: volatility. In high-temp weeks, prices swung more violently — up or down — creating wider return distributions. But the direction of these moves lacked consistency. Some heatwaves saw spikes, others fizzled. This insight matters. It means that extreme heat amplifies risk, even if it doesn't create a reliable directional bias. Traders should prepare for greater uncertainty during hot weeks — an environment where tools like micro wheat futures (MZW) are especially useful. These contracts let traders scale exposure and control risk in turbulent market conditions tied to unpredictable weather. 🔬 Section 5: Statistical Shock—The t-Test Revelation To confirm our findings, we ran two-sample t-tests comparing the returns during low vs. high temperature weeks. The goal? To test if the means of the two groups were statistically different. P-Value (Temp Impact on Wheat Returns): 0.354 (Not Significant) Conclusion: We cannot reject the hypothesis that average returns during low and high temp weeks are the same. This result is counterintuitive. It flies in the face of narratives we often hear during weather extremes. However, our volatility analysis (using boxplots) showed that variance in returns increases significantly during hotter weeks, making them less predictable and more dangerous for leveraged traders. 🧠 Section 6: What Traders Can Learn from This This analysis highlights a few key lessons: Narratives aren’t always backed by data. High heat doesn’t always mean high prices. Volatility increases during weather stress. That’s tradable, but not in the way many assume. Risk-adjusted exposure matters. Micro wheat futures (MZW) are ideal for navigating weather-driven uncertainty. Multi-factor analysis is essential. Weather alone doesn’t explain price behavior. Global supply chains, speculative flows, and other crops’ performance all play a role. This article is part of a growing series where we explore the relationship between weather and agricultural futures. From corn to soybeans to wheat, each crop tells a different story. Watch for the next release—we’ll be digging deeper into more effects and strategies traders can use to capitalize on weather. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZW1!Education
by traddictiv