Wave Analysis
Tesla 30 Min Correcting up now !!!!!!Good morning traders
Here is your 30 minute view of what the market looks like its doing:
Currently we have some strong resistance at 220-223 area: my best thesis is we hit here and then fall back down.
However we follow the market not predict it therefore if those levels break then I would not be surprised we go back to the top correct a touch and then break through and head up to the 280 range.
Any questions, what you like and dont like let me know happy to help where I can
MB Trader
GBPUSD- Trend Continuation setupSuccessful trading is knowing what to do and doing what you know. The knowing part is very simple but the doing part is not easy that is why most people struggle in trading.
This afternoon, during the New York session, my focus is on GBP/USD. We are buying based on the H4 timeframe, where the wave structure remains bullish since the price hasn’t closed below 1.30877.
Another confirmation comes from the H1, which has only shown three waves down so far. While a fifth wave may appear, it’s likely to be a higher low following the current upward move on the M15 chart.
As long as the M15 stays above the New York session opening range, we will continue buying.
Happy Trading!
Multi-Timeframe Live TradingThis strategy follows a multi-timeframe approach, using the 4-hour (H4), 1-hour (H1), and 15-minute (M15) charts.
We start with the H4 timeframe, which gives us the overall market direction. It’s important to trade in line with this timeframe whenever possible.
If there’s no change in direction on the H4, we move to the H1 to guide our next trade decision. If both the H4 and H1 show no change, we continue to follow the H4 trend.
For the Tokyo session, we're focusing on CAD/JPY, which has shifted into a short-term uptrend, despite the H4 and H1 remaining in a downtrend.
The potential trade for the London session is GBP/USD, aiming to trade the end of a bearish wave on the 15-minute chart.
Happy Trading!
US500 and the Elliott Wave Mega Cycle: What Lies Ahead?
Great-Things, traders and market enthusiasts! It's Lord Medz here, bringing you another detailed analysis on the US500, this time from the perspective of the Elliott Wave Principle. Buckle up because we are diving deep into the long-term charts and cycles, looking at what could be a crucial moment in the stock market's journey over the next several years.
The Elliott Wave Principle and the US500
For those who may not be familiar, the Elliott Wave Principle is a technical analysis theory used to forecast market cycles by identifying repetitive wave patterns. In this case, we are focusing on the US500 index, where we believe a mega cycle—consisting of five supercycle waves—has potentially completed its course over the past 8.4 years.
Here's what we're seeing:
Five Supercycle Waves: The US500 has been moving through a bullish impulse pattern for nearly a decade. Each supercycle leg, as we know, is made up of five smaller impulse waves, and historically, after the completion of a supercycle, the market tends to pull back.
Recent Pullbacks: Let's take a look at some recent examples of these pullbacks:
2020: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the market retraced a massive 75%, briefly shaking the foundations of the financial world. But it wasn’t the end of the mega cycle—merely a correction within the broader trend.
2022: Another notable retracement occurred, this time by 50%. Yet again, the market rebounded quickly, suggesting we were still within the bounds of the mega cycle.
What’s Next? Possible Scenarios for the US500
If this mega cycle truly has ended, as suggested by the completion of five major waves, then we could be looking at a significant correction phase. Here's what we are considering:
The 33% Drop to 3750: The US500 could be setting up for a retracement of around 33%, which would pull the index down to the 3750 level. This level corresponds to a typical correction after such an extended wave cycle. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this would be a normal and healthy pullback after a long-term bullish impulse.
Breaking the Swing Low at 3520: If the market breaks below the swing low at 3520, it could signal something much more ominous—a potential shift in the entire market structure from bullish to bearish. A break below this critical level could trigger widespread selling and possibly bring us into what some fear may resemble the Great Depression of the 1930s.
A Time of Caution or Opportunity?
Now, before you jump to conclusions, let me be clear: this is not financial advice. These scenarios are possibilities based on historical price action and the Elliott Wave theory. The markets are always unpredictable, and there are always risks. But it’s worth noting that markets go through cycles, and understanding these cycles can give traders a clearer perspective on what might come next.
Should the US500 drop to 3750, it could represent an opportunity for patient traders looking for value in a pullback. However, if we see a break below 3520, it might be time to reassess the broader outlook.
Final Thoughts
The US500 has enjoyed a spectacular rise over the last decade, powered by strong fundamentals and unprecedented market liquidity. But as the Elliott Wave Principle suggests, every bullish impulse eventually faces a corrective phase. The real question now is how deep this correction will go.
Stay sharp, manage your risk, and always have a game plan. If the Elliott Wave cycles are playing out as expected, we could be in for an eventful few years.
Until next time, trade smart and stay safe.
Peace, Lord MEDZ.
Weekly Trade Planning SessionIn today's session, I will be analyzing the USD/JPY, GBP/USD, CAD/JPY, and EUR/USD pairs.
The framework I follow includes:
Portfolio selection
Currency ranking
Multi-timeframe analysis.
Below is the portfolio selection for this week:
AUD/CAD: Bearish (-5%)
AUD/JPY: Bearish (-59%)
AUD/USD: Bullish (17%)
CAD/JPY: Bearish (-54%)
EUR/CAD: Bullish (16%)
EUR/JPY: Bearish (-38%)
EUR/USD: Bullish (38%)
GBP/JPY: Bearish (-17%)
GBP/USD: Bullish (59%)
USD/CAD: Bearish (-22%)
USD/CHF: Bearish (-63%)
USD/JPY: Bearish (-76%)
Happy Trading!
US Jobs Disappoint - Inflation on DeckThe "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week.
10 year average for September is -.9%
70 year average for September is -.7%
We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI to potentially fend off more selling with improvements in the inflation trends (e.g. lower inflation = better for market sentiment).
This video is a bit longer, but I appreciate you checking it out and watching. Once we're through inflation news, it's all about the FED on Sep 18, then more employment/inflation news, then election. Those are major catalysts to posture us for the remainder of the year.
Long-term investors the game is simple
Short-term investors are all over the place
Profits and Losses happen, just don't do anything silly.
Enjoy the weekend!!!
TESLA (TSLA) Moving in a channelGood morning everyone!
Quick 4.5 minute update on Tesla! We're looking alright but in the short term, we'll need to see a move above our short term resistance at $233-$234 before we can see a move up into $240-$245. Very possible.
NFP was just released today so make sure you take care for any intraday volatility, otherwise my view is Tesla is moving in a channel and we're going to keep at least a short term bullish posture until we break the channel (either way).
Bullish price target is $400 (no timeframe associated) and Bearish price target would be a sweep of that $150 level in the event of global financial catastrophe.
Trade safely nerds!
EURUSD: Market Focus for Today: NFP DataMarket Focus for Today: NFP Data
Today’s market focus is solely on the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. The US is expected to report 160K jobs versus the previous 114K. Based on this data, the market will also speculate about a potential rate cut during the FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday, September 18.
You may watch the analysis for further details
Thank you:)
NZD/CHF Long and EUR/NZD ShortNZD/CHF Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse up above area of interest.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
NZD/CHF Long Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse up above area of interest.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
AUD/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
Xau ideas and also a technical setup to explain, long It has come to my attention that gold OANDA:XAUUSD has taking a short trend during past days, here now is time to recover to 2523.532, i have put point explanation analysis into be viewed. lets focus on the higher low that was made draw the trend line see the correction that was occurred on the charts indicates a potential reversal zone for a few reasons;
#1 On bullish trend the buys are more powerful players
#2 Intersection of 2 support, dynamic and static
#3 Correction to 0.382
#4 Candle has been triggered with an engulf.
Remember to never risk more than what you have planned to lose in a day.
to be safe make it a 1% risk of your profile in order keep your head straight, in order to make lots money we will keep trading and win a portion at a time.
Stay humble, work hard and trade OANDA:XAUUSD .
SPX ES Futures - Clearer view for Wave 4?Greetings!
SPX is much clearer and more constructive than NASDAQ in my opinion. Keeping this short and sweet. Current bias is this drawdown is exactly what everyone expected and wanted. Currently leaning bullish for the time being while being hedged in the event NFP tomorrow causes a major market downturn.
KEY level is below 5360, but I believe the more important levels are on that 38.2% and 50% internal retracement for the wave 4 at 5475 and 5420 (roughly).
NFP tomorrow, I expect we will probably see a push down initially followed by a rebound. Market was very choppy today (see my NASDAQ update for more details on that), but I think we're going to find a resolution soon where we can get more directional trades.
Happy hunting!
NVDA climbing to pop to the $121 price - 4hr Elliot WaveNASDAQ:NVDA drawing an Elliot Wave retracement potentially all the way to the $114-$121 price range
Moving averages consolidating around that area too. I track the 20, 50, 100, and 200, but mostly the 50 and 200 for confirmation.
Invest smart, invest hard.
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Roaring Puppy 🐶 out.
NASDAQ:NVDA
Bear Pressure Remains (Key Levels to Watch - SPX, NDX)Tuesday - Bear Candle breaking support
Wednesday - weak re-test of the support (now becoming resistance)
Bearish pressure remains firm with key levels lower on the major indexes.
Near-term bearish until price proves otherwise. Taking stops, protecting profits and managing hedges.
JPY "unwinding" is also back on the radar. I'll be watching the JPY strength and Nikkei correlation. I still hold long FXY through 2026 (call options)
Thanks for watching!!!