Wave Analysis
Focus on CADJPY: Pre-London Session AnalysisHi traders,
The focus today is on CADJPY during the pre-London session. I believe we have a bullish setup forming, often referred to as a Late Session Reversal or Late Day Reversal.
Price Analysis
The bullish move in CADJPY began late during the New York session yesterday.
The overall trend has been bearish, with the last leg showing a 3-wave extension below the accumulation zone.
Interestingly, the downtrend's origin was marked by a momentum high, suggesting that price should, at a minimum, retest that level.
So far, we've seen a completed bullish wavestructure with accumulation forming above High 3, indicating strong buyer interest.
The plan is to buy into the next bullish wavestructure once price breaks above the current internal momentum high.
Our initial target is 107.45 (the Momentum High).
Fibonacci Analysis
Using Fibonacci from the Low (0) to High (3), we see indications of further bullish potential.
The High (5) or Internal Momentum High stalled at T1 (23.6% extension) of the 0-3 wave.
This signals a likely continuation with a stronger second wave structure, aiming towards the Major Extension 1 (107.993)
Wishing you a successful trading week!
Microsoft - Short Term Top Formation!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) could create a short term correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Almost for the entire year of 2024, Microsoft has been moving sideways and respecting the upper channel resistance trendline. It is quite likely that we will see a correction, considering that buyers are still weak, before we then see the overall trend continuation.
Levels to watch: $350
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BRIEFING Week #48 : Nothing NewHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
Understanding Trends and Waves in TradingIntroduction
In trading education, recognising price movements is crucial. Prices move in trends, and these trends move in waves. Understanding these waves is essential for successful trading.
The Two Types of Waves
Impulsive/Primary Trend
Comprises a minimum of five waves.
Dictates the overall direction of price movement.
Corrective/Secondary Trend
Comprises a maximum of three waves.
Provides insights into the ongoing trend.
This phase is the most critical for traders to master.
Conclusion
To trade successfully in a trending market, it’s vital to learn how to accurately count waves. Mastering this skill can significantly enhance your trading decisions. Best wishes for your trading success!
How to Trend Trade & Why I Avoid Trading Fridays & Mondays 👀👉 In this video, I take you through a detailed breakdown of my trend continuation strategy with the EURJPY. 🔍 We’ll explore key concepts like trend analysis, price action, and market structure, and I’ll share a simple yet highly effective method for identifying the best trade entry points. ✅ I’ll also explain why I choose to avoid trading on Mondays and Fridays and how this approach helps refine my trading discipline. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This video is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. ⚠️
LIVE MARKET ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEAS: USDJPY, GBPUSD, GBPAUD & CJHello Traders,
Starting off early today with a big shout out to @TradingView for their continuous improvements to the platform and the valuable tools they provide to the trading community. Well done!
Here’s my analysis for today:
USDJPY H4
The USDJPY has formed a Momentum Low, signalling a potential trend reset. The underlying trend remains bullish on this timeframe.
Expectation: Increased buying activity is anticipated from the current price level.
GBPAUD H4
The GBPAUD is trading within a 915-pip range. Inside this range, price fluctuations create highs and lows. Applying the range trading principle—buy low, sell high—recent price action shows a bullish wave structure completed on the smaller timeframe following a rally from the Momentum Low.
Current Observation: A trend reset is occurring on the smaller timeframe, breaking below 1.9508.
Trading Approach: Look for a failure to make a Lower Low (LL) on the 5-minute chart and seek opportunities to trade to the upside.
GBPUSD H4
The GBPUSD remains in a downtrend on the H4 timeframe. However, a significant reset has occurred, forming Structure 4 at 1.2714.
Ideal Trade: The preferred strategy is to sell GBPUSD. However, based on wave structure analysis on the lower timeframe, the price is not yet primed for a bearish move.
CADJPY H4
The CADJPY exhibits similar behaviour to the USDJPY, with a recent dip below the previous Momentum Low. Yesterday, a bullish trend-changing pattern emerged.
Trading Opportunity: Look for buying setups above 107.46 based on the current price action.
Wishing you successful trades and a blessed weekend!
THE BILLION DOLLARS TRADE HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHTThis is an update of my last idea regarding BKKT stock:
Bottom line : THE breakout illustrated in my last idea is very important because in conjunction with the all time low and this algo trading short squeeze form a solid bottoming formation that has not only political headwind and good earnings reports but comes with strong momentum and volume .
Holiday Markets and All Markets Spot CheckLimited trading for the remainder of the week in the US with Thanksgiving
We've notched a few all-time highs in the US markets but without any major surges. Low volume and light activity have been pretty apparent as the post election rips have settled down somewhat.
US data still in line before FOMC on Dec 18. Current FED Watch Tool showing a 64% probability of the FED still cutting 25 bps before end of year. This will be an important message from the FED to the markets on how the FED plans to adjust monetary policy in 2025 (pause, hold, cut, hike).
DXY and USD related crosses showing signs of nice movement (weaker dollar). Let's see if that is a stronger reversal pattern with follow through as many USD pairs are at strong support/resistance levels to show some reactions.
I'm not aggressively positioning on anything currently. If the melt-up continues, it's pretty easy and steady gains. If we have any flinch or pullback before end of year, I'll have my hedges in profit to help offset drawdowns. The best path for me is management both ways and inexpensive protection to the downside.
Thanks for watching!!!
Crude Oil (USOIL) Trade Setup – Key Insights & StrategyHey Traders! 👋
In this video, I dive into the current price action and trade opportunities for Crude Oil (USOIL). With the market sitting near key support levels, here's what you need to know. 📊
🔷 What’s Inside:
Analysis of FX:USOIL USOIL’s recent price movements.
Key support levels and potential breakout zones.
My trading strategy for the week ahead and how to approach the EIA report.
📌 Don’t miss these insights—they could shape your next big move!
💬 Watch now and share your thoughts in the comments below. Let’s collaborate and build smarter strategies together.
📈 Follow me for real-time updates on TradingView
Trade smart and stay ahead! 🚀
USOIL - Long Trade Idea + Full Long-Term Pattern Breakdown...In this video, I explore the long-term pattern for crude oil and how it aligns with the current long trade setup.
I also discuss potential scenarios that could unfold once this trade reaches its target. The link to the long trade idea is provided below.
Target: 97.50
Entry: 72.95
Stop\Support Level: 66.69
XLMUSD - Wave E of Wave (B) Looks Complete - Time To Go Short...In this video, I break down how the wave patterns, as interpreted through AriasWave, suggest that it's time to short this market.
When I notice over-the-top predictions and media hype, it only reinforces my belief that we've reached a short-term top in this cryptocurrency.
Here I provide a detailed wave analysis to support my bearish outlook, making it easy for you to follow along.
If prices begin to decline from here, you can expect to see continued corrections along the way that play out in a similar manner.
Gold - This Will Be The Top!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) is starting to reject the channel resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Gold perfectly retested the top of the rising channel after rallying more than +35% over the past couple of months. Just looking at this overextended rally alone, it is quite likely that Gold will correct even more and maybe, we will even see a retest of the previous breakout level.
Levels to watch: $2.700, $2.050
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)