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Can DXY Stabilize at 99.50-100 Area Despite FED 50bp Cut? Dollar Index – DXY has turned bearish after the corrective rally stopped at 105.70-106, an important resistance area at the end of June. Since then, the price even accelerated lower through summer so it appears that a bearish impulse is in play, but with recent touch of a new swing low, DXY is possibly in fifth wave, so be aware of some support in weeks ahead. But closer look shows that there is still some room left for 99.50-100 area, but if this will occur and structure a wedge shape, then we should be aware of reversals, and new correction. So as said, the price could still see a bit more weakness into the 5th wave to fully complete this ending diagonal, but then dollar can turn for a new correction, considering that recent dollar weakness has been mainly driven by these rate cut expectations, so now that this 50bp cut has been done, the dollar may stabilize due to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect. However, any rally will be temporary, as I think that dollar has room for much more weakness, bu ideally after another a-b-c recovery. 101.80 -102 is strong resistance. GH
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
Weekly Round-up: USD/JPY & GBP/USD Market AnalysisHi Traders, Here's a summary of the week so far for USD/JPY and GBP/USD. This week has been packed with economic data releases. Earlier today, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged but expressed optimism about improvements in the broader Japanese economy. The overall trend for USD/JPY remains bearish, and we anticipate this to persist into the coming week. As for GBP/USD, our short trade closed yesterday, and we are now expecting a continuation of the upward trend, breaking above the momentum high. Have a wonderful weekend!
by Charts247TradingAcademy
USDJPY Analysis: Awaiting Market Confirmation Post Fed Rate CutHi Traders, Following yesterday's USD news, the Federal Reserve has reduced the interest rate by 0.25%. It seems the market has already absorbed this news, and our attention shifts back to the USDJPY pair. On Tuesday, my analysis showed a price break above the H4 structure. According to this structure, we can anticipate a continuation of the overall downtrend. However, predicting the exact point where the decline will begin is tricky. We'll need to carefully monitor price movements on smaller timeframes for more clarity. On the 1-hour (1Hr) chart, we're looking for either a new higher high (HH) or a slightly lower high (LH) to complete the current wave structure. Selling at this stage is premature. Instead, we’re looking to buy on the current swing of the 1Hr chart, waiting for a potential failure to make a new HH.
Long
by Charts247TradingAcademy
NVIDIA's Four-Hour Dip: A Macro Correction or Bigger Shift UPGood afternoon or evening, traders! What a rollercoaster of a day! The market followed our expectations—correcting, then taking a dive. But wow, did anyone expect that explosive breakout at 9:30 am? That’s the thrill of the open! In this video, I'm staying neutral, but here’s what we need to watch: a breakout above 119-120 opens the door to 140 and beyond—a very real possibility. On the flip side, a dip below current levels could see us exploring the 90 range. Something to keep in mind! Thanks for watching, and apologies if I sound a bit tired—it’s been an intense day. Happy trading, and let’s keep riding those waves! MB Trader
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Mindbloome-Trading
3
FOMC (FED) 50 bps Cut - What's Next???FED cut 50 bps today (as CME FED Watch Tool predicted), but it was one of the closer toss-up probabilities at 55% to 45% odds. Today's 50 bps leaves room for more to come and the market is anticipating 10 cuts in 11 FOMC meetings out through 2025. The market's resilience has been impressive, but until the market is satisfied with more "good news" on employment, inflation, and earnings growth...fresh all-time highs and rips may prove elusive in the near term. Thanks for watching and enjoy the video!!!
AMEX:IWM
by ChrisPulver
TSLA - $233-$235 KEY for UPSIDEHello people of the world! Here's your update in 5 minutes or less on TSLA! It's going to be as simple as this: Close a daily above $235 and chances of the shorter term upside target being $265-$270 increase significantly. Right now, I don't see a trade that is worth the risk from a short term perspective. We really need to see a good break of this important resistance. FOMC is today so things will likely get a little more volatile today and will open the door for the Sep/Oct slump if that is going to happen this year. Elections are still a wild card and rate cuts are going to be a factor as well in all of this. All in all, we need to wait for a break before making a move.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by bitdoctor
Live Trading Recap: USD/JPY Correction Phase TradeThis is a live execution of USD/JPY trade, demonstrating how to successfully execute a counter-trend strategy. This trade was all about understanding the market phases and recognizing the trend reversal at the right moment. To pull off a counter-trend trade, you need more than just technical skills—you need a solid grasp of trading psychology. Staying patient, trusting your analysis, and managing emotions during market swings are key to making informed decisions. Watch the video to see how I combined these elements to turn this trade into a win. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
by Charts247TradingAcademy
AUD/JPY Short, AUD/NZD Short and NATGAS/USD ShortAUD/JPY Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of value. • If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. AUD/NZD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Break above area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. NATGAS/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by StewySongs
BTCUSDT $58K Wave4 Correction: The M21emaBTCUSDT $58K Wave4 Correction: The M21ema Btc has been consolidating for the last 6M. However, price has still not retested its M21ema(currently at 48k), which is one of the most important key levelof support on the MACRO basis. Therefore, Support as discussed in previous Updates are: $53-50K (3W21ema) GETTEX:48K (M21ema) The W21ema will continue to act as resistance till its cleanly taken out, then will reevaluate the market from that point on
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sen_Crypto
UJ SELL idea update - STILL LOWER POSSIBLE Weekly Wave + SMC In this extension of the original UJ Sell idea with Targets below, we back out to a weekly and look at a possible Running Flat (for Wave Traders) - we go over symmetry in the markets and aggressive corrections on weekly. Doc will show analysis for confluence and how we have targets still lower. Maybe don't 'buy the bottom yet'!! Finally a good example of lower timeframe trendline failure and how to avoid 'getting COOKED' Your trend is heading into a higher TF "BLOCKER" - its like a small car driving up to and then sitting on a train track.. you will get CRUSHED. Like and Boost this idea if you get anything from it and want me to do more of these! Happy Trading -- Doc
Short
by docholliday
CAD/CHF Trade, NATGAS Short, A/N Short, G/U Long and E/U LongNATGAS/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: • If tight 1H continuation forms, 15 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. AUD/NZD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. GBP/USD Long Minimum entry requirements: • If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach forms, 15 min risk entry within it. EUR/USD Long Minimum entry requirements: • If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach forms, 15 min risk entry within it.
by StewySongs
NASDAQ on the Brink: Major Pullback Ahead? A Look at the Market Greetings, traders and market visionaries! It’s Lord Medz here once again, and today we’ll be analyzing the NASDAQ and the potential for a massive pullback, similar to what we discussed with the US500. However, this time we’re also going to dive into an important indicator that’s flashing warning signs for the broader economy—the US Treasury Yield Curve, specifically the inversion between the 2-year and 10-year yields. The NASDAQ is currently at a critical juncture, having completed five supercycle waves according to the Elliott Wave Principle. The market could be on the verge of a sharp correction, and when paired with the concerning yield curve inversion, the stakes couldn’t be higher. NASDAQ’s Elliott Wave Mega Cycle: Are We Done? Over the past several years, the NASDAQ has surged thanks to the tech boom, accommodative monetary policies, and investor enthusiasm. However, based on Elliott Wave analysis, it appears that the NASDAQ may have completed five supercycle waves, potentially signaling the end of this massive bullish phase. Here’s what we’re watching: Five-Wave Completion: According to Elliott Wave theory, markets move in repetitive wave patterns, and the NASDAQ may have completed its fifth and final impulse wave of the current supercycle. Retracement Ahead? If we are indeed at the end of this supercycle, the NASDAQ could be on the cusp of a 50%, 60%, or even 70% pullback. This would mean a significant retracement from current highs, potentially wiping out gains made since the early days of the pandemic in 2020. Potential Pullback Scenarios 50% Pullback: A correction of this magnitude would take the NASDAQ back to levels near 7000-8000, which represents a substantial drop but would still leave the long-term bullish structure intact. 60% to 70% Pullback: In the event of a deeper correction, we could see the NASDAQ falling to levels below 6000, erasing years of gains. This would be similar to the aftermath of the dot-com bubble crash, where the market underwent a severe reset before recovering. The key levels to watch are 7000, 6000, and the 5000 range. A break below these levels could signal more trouble ahead, and a possible shift in long-term market structure. The US Treasury Yield Curve: A Key Warning Sign Adding to the concern is the inversion of the US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Historically, this yield curve inversion is a reliable indicator of a looming recession. Here’s what’s happening: Inverted Yield Curve: Normally, longer-term bonds (like the 10-year) should offer higher yields than shorter-term bonds (like the 2-year) because investors demand more return for taking on longer-term risk. However, when the 10-year yield falls below the 2-year yield, it signals that investors expect economic trouble ahead. Recession Indicator: This yield curve inversion has occurred before most recessions in modern US history, including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2001 dot-com bubble. In fact, the yield curve has inverted again in 2023, raising alarms about the possibility of a recession within the next 12 to 18 months. When the yield curve is inverted, it implies that short-term economic risks are rising, and market participants are flocking to the safety of longer-term bonds. This can lead to tightening financial conditions and a slowdown in economic activity—factors that could heavily impact the tech-heavy NASDAQ. The Yield Curve and the NASDAQ The NASDAQ, with its high exposure to growth stocks, tends to be particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates and the broader economic environment. A sustained yield curve inversion can lead to: Higher borrowing costs for businesses, particularly in the tech sector, which thrives on cheap capital for innovation and growth. Rising rates can squeeze margins and dampen investor enthusiasm for growth stocks. Decreased consumer spending, as higher short-term rates make borrowing more expensive for households and businesses alike. This can lead to lower revenues for companies, particularly in discretionary and tech sectors. Recession fears translating into lower stock prices, as investors begin to price in slower economic growth and shrinking corporate profits. Given these factors, the combination of a completed Elliott Wave supercycle and an inverted yield curve suggests that the NASDAQ may face substantial headwinds in the coming months. Conclusion: Is a Major Pullback Inevitable? We are at a critical stage in the NASDAQ’s journey, and the signals are flashing red. With the Elliott Wave analysis pointing to the end of a major supercycle and the inverted US Treasury yield curve signaling potential recessionary conditions, the risk of a major correction seems high. Whether we see a 50%, 60%, or 70% pullback, the coming months could be pivotal. The yield curve inversion should not be ignored, as it historically precedes economic downturns—and a downturn in the broader economy will almost certainly impact the tech sector and the NASDAQ. For traders and investors, this is a time to be cautious. As always, it’s essential to manage risk, diversify holdings, and keep an eye on key support levels. A major correction could present long-term opportunities, but only for those who are prepared to weather the storm. Stay sharp, stay informed, and trade with care. Peace, Lord MEDZ. Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Skinwah
1