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Ultimate Guide to Master ICT KillzonesWhy Timing Matters Just as Much as Price Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT methodologies are built on the idea that markets are manipulated by large players with precision. While most traders obsess over price levels, entry models, and liquidity zones, many fail to realize that none of those matter if they happen at the wrong time. Time is not an afterthought, it's a core part of the edge. Price can show you where the move might happen, but time shows you when smart money is most likely to act. That window of action is what ICT calls the killzone. What Are Killzones? Killzones are specific time periods in the trading day when smart money typically executes large moves. These sessions have predictable volatility and institutional order flow. They are not just random hours, they coincide with major session opens and overlaps. The most relevant killzones are: London Killzone (LKO), 2 AM to 5 AM EST New York Killzone (NYKO), 7 AM to 10 AM EST New York Lunch/Dead Zone, 11:30 AM to 1 PM EST (low probability, often reversal traps) Each killzone offers unique opportunities depending on how liquidity has been engineered prior. ICT-style setups are most reliable when they form within, or directly in anticipation of, these windows. The Trap Before the Real Move Smart money loves to trap retail traders. This trap usually happens just before or early in a killzone. For example, if price takes out a key high at 2:30 AM EST (London open), many retail traders see a breakout. But those in tune with SMC see it as a classic liquidity raid, bait before the reversal. Once that external liquidity is taken, smart money shows its hand with displacement, a sudden, aggressive move in the opposite direction. This typically forms a clean imbalance (Fair Value Gap) or a breaker block. That’s your cue. If the price returns to that level within the killzone, that’s the optimal entry window. Confluence is King: Time, Liquidity, and Structure The most reliable SMC setups happen when: Liquidity is swept early into a killzone Displacement confirms the real direction during the killzone Entry happens via return to an FVG or OB created within that same session The setup might still look right if it forms outside these windows, but without proper timing, it’s often just noise or engineered liquidity to trap impatient traders. Real-World Example: NY Killzone Short NY, At 8:30 AM EST, price runs above the Asian highs, sweeping liquidity Displacement, Sharp bearish move breaks structure to the downside at 8:45 AM Entry, Price retraces into the 5M FVG at 9:10 AM Result, Clean reversal into a nice profit trageting liquidity, all within the NY session Outside of this killzone structure, the same setup likely would have chopped or failed. Common Mistakes Traders Make With Time Chasing price outside of killzones, Setup might look good, but volume is thin and no follow-through comes Assuming all killzones are equal, London setups are often cleaner in structure, while NY has more manipulation around news Forcing trades in NY lunch, Midday reversals do happen, but they’re lower probability. If you're not already in a position by 11 AM EST, it's often best to wait for the next day The Discipline Edge Most traders overtrade not because they lack setups, but because they don’t filter based on time. By only trading when price interacts with your levels during active killzones, you immediately reduce the number of bad trades and increase your focus on meaningful opportunities. Good setups are rare. Good setups in the right timing window are even rarer. That’s where consistency comes from. Final Thoughts Time is not optional. In SMC and ICT, it’s not enough to have the level, you need the timing. Killzones are your filter, your edge, and your context for every trade. Once you understand how time and price move together, and stop treating every moment on the chart equally, your trading will start to reflect the true flow of smart money. Wait for time, wait for price, then strike. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this guide helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
CAPITALCOM:US100Education
by TehThomas
48
TWAP and Chaikin's Osc vs VWAP Orders and VWAP IndicatorThere are two primary Order Types that the Professional Side of the market use. 1. Time Weighted at Average Price, aka TWAP , is used extensively by the Dark Pool Buy Side, Derivative Developers, and Sell Side Banks of record for Buybacks for corporations. The TWAP can be set at a penny to few pennies spread and pings and transacts on a specific TIME to PRICE. It can be set to time intervals shorter or longer. This is why the stock market is called "fully automated". TWAP is used most of the time. It is rare for the Giant Institutions to use VWAP orders due to the May 2010 FLASH CRASH when a fundamental trader of e-minis accidentally hit the VWAP order type rather than the TWAP order type which caused a massive collapse of all stocks as VWAPs accelerate selling as volume increases. 2. Volume Weighted at Price or VWAP is ALSO an ORDER TYPE. It is primarily used by Small Funds Managers and Small Asset Managers who are independents trading their customers' investment money actively, often intraday. Volume Weighted at price ORDER TYPES are also automated and ping to trigger the order to transact as volume increases. This is an easy, simple way for a busy small fund manager to cope with the complexity of buying and selling stocks with 10,000 share lots to 100,000 share lots. These are the NEW "whales" of the market. Professional Traders Swing trade 1 million to 5 million or higher share-lot sizes. The size of the orders of the professional trader has increased significantly in the past decade. All of you need to be aware of the market participants on the professional side as they control 80% of the 1 trillion dollars that exchange hands daily on the US Markets. Using Chaikin's Oscillator is ideal for tracking the Dark Pool Buy Side who create the bottoms. This excellent indicator analyzes all 3 data sets: price, volume and time. Thus, it can signal early that the Dark Pools have slowly started to accumulate over time and the runs down will turn into a bottom and then pro traders will nudge price to inspire VWAP orders from the Smaller funds managers. The VWAP INDICATOR is excellent for tracking the smaller funds managers' trading activity and it ALSO has price, volume, and time in the formula. So this is great for those of you who need an indicator for following smaller funds activity as these smaller funds VWAP orders trigger more and more volume and then runs that can move up or down for several days. TradingView has an awesome group of indicators to use. You should customize your indicators to which market participant groups you wish to track so that you can be ready and in a position before the big runs up or down. Trade Wisely, Martha Stokes CMT
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
2
How to Regain Your Trading MOJOEvery trader, no matter how experienced, eventually hits a rough patch — a period where trades don’t work out, motivation fades, and confidence slips away. If you feel like you've lost your trading mojo, you're not alone. The key is not to quit but to rebuild it methodically. Here’s how to get your trading energy back on track: 1. Accept That Slumps Are Normal First, realize that losing your mojo is part of the trading journey. Even the best traders experience drawdowns — emotionally and financially. Acknowledging that this phase is temporary immediately removes some of the pressure and guilt. Self-acceptance is your first weapon. 2. Reduce Risk and Slow Down When your confidence is low, lower your position size. Trade smaller. Risk less. You don’t need to stop trading completely — you need to stop damaging yourself further. Think of it as “active recovery,” much like athletes training lightly after an injury. 3. Go Back to Basics Strip your trading plan down to the essentials: - Focus on one setup you trust. - Use clear entry and exit rules. - Avoid complicated strategies or "revenge trading." Simplicity restores clarity, and clarity brings confidence. 4. Reframe Losses Mentally Instead of seeing losses as failures, view them as fees for learning. Ask yourself after each trade: - "Was this trade according to my plan?" - "Did I respect my stop loss?" If yes, you are winning — even if the trade loses money. Consistency in good decision-making rebuilds emotional momentum. 5. Visualize the Trader You Want to Be Take 5 minutes each day to visualize yourself executing perfect trades: - Calmly analyzing. - Patiently waiting. - Executing your plan without emotion. Your brain needs new emotional associations with trading — not fear and anxiety, but calm and focus. 6. Set Tiny Wins Don't chase the big win right away. Set micro-goals like: - "I will follow my stop loss rules today." - "I will not overtrade today." - "I will wait for my setup." Achieving small wins daily rebuilds your trader identity brick by brick. Final Thoughts : Regaining your trading mojo is less about finding a "magic moment" and more about stacking good habits and resetting your mind. You don't need a new system, a new market, or a lucky break. You need to reconnect with the disciplined, focused trader within you. Stay patient, stay structured, and remember — your mojo isn’t lost forever. It’s just waiting for you to catch up. 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
8
What Is SMT Divergence, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is SMT Divergence, and How Can You Use It in Trading? SMT divergence, or Smart Money Technique divergence, is a concept used by traders to analyse imbalances in correlated markets. By identifying when price movements deviate between related instruments, traders can uncover potential shifts in market momentum, often linked to institutional activity. This article explores what SMT divergence is, how SMT divergence trading works, and its practical applications. What Is SMT Divergence? SMT divergence, short for Smart Money Technique divergence, refers to a specific type of price discrepancy between two correlated financial instruments. Part of the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology, this divergence is often interpreted as a sign of institutional or "smart money" activity, as it highlights potential inefficiencies or imbalances in the market. Here’s how an ICT SMT divergence works: correlated instruments—like EUR/USD and GBP/USD in forex, or major stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ—typically move in the same direction under normal market conditions. SMT divergence occurs when one instrument makes a higher high or lower low, while the other fails to follow suit. This inconsistency suggests that buying or selling pressure may be uneven across these markets, often caused by larger market participants adjusting their positions. For example, if EUR/USD forms a new high, while GBP/USD lags behind and fails to break its previous high. This divergence could indicate waning momentum in one pair, hinting at a potential reversal or shift in the overall market structure. Traders analysing SMT divergence often see these moments as key opportunities to assess whether institutional players might be involved. To identify an SMT divergence, you can monitor two correlated assets’ charts and observe discrepancies. Also, there are SMT divergence indicators for MT4, MT5, and TradingView available online that can automate the process. The Core Components of SMT Divergence SMT divergence relies on three key components: correlated instruments, divergence between price movements, and the involvement of institutional players. Understanding these elements is crucial for applying this concept. 1. Correlated Instruments At the heart of SMT divergence is the relationship between correlated markets. These are instruments that typically move in tandem due to shared economic drivers. For instance, in forex, pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD often exhibit similar trends because they’re influenced by the strength of the US dollar, as well as their close regional ties and trade relationships. In equities, indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 often align because they reflect broader market sentiment and contain overlapping stocks. 2. Divergence in Price Movements The divergence occurs when these typically correlated instruments fail to move in sync. For example, one instrument may reach a higher high, while the other stalls or even reverses. This mismatch is more than just noise—it can signal a deeper imbalance in the market, often linked to uneven supply and demand dynamics. It’s these price discrepancies that traders scrutinise to identify potential turning points. 3. Institutional Activity One of the reasons SMT divergence is so closely watched is its potential link to smart money behaviour. Institutions often use correlated instruments to mask their actions, creating subtle imbalances that only become apparent through careful analysis. For instance, when one correlated pair lags, it might reflect deliberate accumulation or distribution by larger players. How Traders Analyse SMT Divergence Analysing SMT divergence helps in understanding the nuanced relationship between correlated instruments and interpreting these imbalances correctly. Unlike leading correlations—such as oil influencing the Canadian dollar—SMT divergence doesn’t rely on one asset consistently driving the other. Instead, it focuses on shifts in momentum where neither instrument is the leader, but their combined behaviour hints at potential market moves. Identifying Divergence Traders start by observing price action in two correlated instruments or timeframes. SMT divergence becomes apparent when one instrument forms a higher high or lower low, while the other fails to do so. For example, if EUR/USD makes a higher high, but GBP/USD stalls below its previous peak, this inconsistency could signal fading bullish momentum in the broader market. The key is that neither asset leads; instead, the divergence itself provides the signal. Some common correlations traders use include: - Forex Pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD USD/JPY and USD/CHF DXY and USD/CAD - Cryptocurrencies*: BTC/USD and ETH/USD - Equity Indices: S&P 500 and NASDAQ FTSE 100 and DAX - Treasuries: US 10-Year Treasury Yield and USD/JPY - Commodities: Brent Crude and WTI Crude Oil Interpreting Divergence at Extremes SMT divergence is particularly significant when it occurs at market highs or lows. When divergence appears at highs—such as one instrument making a higher high while the other fails—it often signals a potential bearish reversal in the stronger instrument. Conversely, at lows, if one makes a lower low while the other holds firm, it may indicate a potential bullish reversal in the weaker one. This imbalance highlights where momentum might shift. Adding Context Traders rarely rely on an SMT divergence strategy alone. They often look for supporting evidence, such as volume analysis, market structure shifts, or order flow data, to confirm the signal. For instance, divergence combined with signs of institutional selling near a high could strengthen the case for a bearish move. SMT Divergence in Different Market Conditions SMT divergence behaves differently depending on market conditions, offering traders insights that vary between trending and ranging environments. Its effectiveness hinges on the context in which it appears, so understanding how it adapts to different scenarios is key. Trending Markets In trending markets, SMT divergence often signals potential reversals or pauses in momentum. For example, in a strong uptrend, divergence at a new high (where one correlated instrument makes a higher high while the other does not) can indicate waning buying pressure. This inconsistency might suggest that institutional players are beginning to reduce their positions or shift market direction. A similar principle applies in downtrends: divergence at a fresh low, where one instrument breaks lower while the other doesn’t, could signal that bearish momentum is losing steam. Traders often use these moments to reassess their analysis and consider the possibility of a reversal or pullback within the trend. Ranging Markets In a range-bound environment, SMT divergence takes on a different role. Rather than hinting at trend reversals, it often highlights potential breakouts or false moves. For instance, during a consolidation phase, if one correlated instrument makes a sharp move outside the range while the other stays contained, it may signal that the breakout is unsustainable and a reversal back into the range is likely. Alternatively, if both instruments diverge significantly at the edges of the range, it could suggest that smart money is accumulating or distributing positions in preparation for a breakout. Different Asset Classes SMT divergence isn’t limited to one market type. In forex, it often reveals imbalances caused by macroeconomic drivers like central bank policies. In equities, it can signal sector rotation or institutional adjustments. Commodities, particularly oil or gold, may show divergence influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Limitations and Common Misconceptions While SMT divergence is a powerful tool for analysing market imbalances, it’s important to understand its limitations and avoid common misconceptions. Misinterpreting divergence can lead to flawed decisions, especially if it’s viewed in isolation or without proper context. Limitations - False Signals: Not all divergences indicate institutional activity or meaningful shifts in the market. Low liquidity or erratic price movements can create divergence that doesn’t hold significance. - Context Dependency: SMT divergence requires a solid understanding of market conditions. Its reliability decreases in highly volatile or choppy environments where correlations break down temporarily. - Not a Standalone Tool: Relying solely on SMT divergence can be risky. Traders use it alongside other forms of analysis, such as market structure or volume data. Common Misconceptions - Always Linked to Institutional Activity: Not every instance of SMT divergence involves smart money. Divergences can also result from retail trading activity or macroeconomic events. - Predicting Market Direction: SMT divergence doesn’t guarantee outcomes; it highlights imbalances. Further analysis is needed to evaluate whether the market will reverse, continue, or consolidate. - Universal Applicability: While it works across various markets, not all instruments are equally suitable for SMT divergence due to differences in liquidity or drivers. Practical Applications of SMT Divergence SMT divergence is a versatile analytical method that traders use to refine their strategies and deepen their understanding of market dynamics. Here’s how it’s typically applied in practice: Identifying Market Turning Points One of the most common uses of SMT divergence is spotting potential reversals. When divergence appears at key highs or lows, it often signals that momentum is shifting. When combined with other common trading tools, such as support and resistance, as well as ICT methodology concepts like order blocks and fair value gaps, this can be used to time entries or adjust risk exposure. Potentially Enhancing Risk Management SMT divergence can potentially enhance risk management by offering early warnings about changes in market conditions. If divergence aligns with other factors—such as weakening volume or significant resistance/support levels—it can serve as a signal to tighten stops or reduce position sizes, depending on the trader’s broader approach. At the same time, it can also provide clear boundaries for setting stop losses. If a trader has confidence that a reversal in one asset is likely due to an SMT divergence, then a stop loss can be placed immediately after the maximum or minimum of the divergence. The Bottom Line The SMT divergence is a valuable tool for understanding market imbalances and spotting potential turning points. By combining it with other analysis methods, traders can gain deeper insights into price action. FAQ What Does Divergence Mean in Trading? Divergence in trading refers to a mismatch between the price action of an asset and a technical indicator or between two correlated instruments. It often signals a potential change in trend, as the imbalance suggests a shift in market momentum. What Is SMT in Trading? SMT in trading stands for Smart Money Technique. SMT divergence is one of the ICT trading concepts. It focuses on identifying market imbalances that may reflect the activity of institutional traders, seen through divergence between correlated instruments. What Does SMT Divergence Mean? The SMT divergence meaning refers to an occasion when two correlated instruments fail to move in sync. One can make a higher high while the other does not or one can make a lower low while the other doesn’t. This indicates potential smart money involvement and signals a possible trend shift. What Is an Example of SMT Divergence? A common example is in forex, where EUR/USD forms a higher high, but GBP/USD does not. This divergence could suggest fading bullish momentum, signalling a possible reversal in EUR/USD. What Is the Strongest Divergence Indicator? While SMT divergence itself is powerful, traders often combine it with indicators like RSI or volume profiles for added confirmation. The strongest signals come from divergence paired with a broader market context. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Buy Fear, Not Euphoria: The Trader's EdgeWhen you look back at the greatest trading opportunities in history, they all seem to share a common element: fear. Yet, when you're in the moment, it feels almost impossible to pull the trigger. Why? Because fear paralyzes, while euphoria seduces. If you want to truly evolve as a trader, you need to master this fundamental shift: buy fear, not euphoria. Let's break it down together. ________________________________________ What Fear and Euphoria Really Mean in Markets In simple terms, fear shows up when prices are falling sharply, when bad news dominates the headlines, and when people around you are saying "it's all over." Euphoria, on the other hand, is everywhere when prices are skyrocketing, when everyone on social media is celebrating, and when it feels like "this can only go higher." In those moments: • Fear tells you to run away. • Euphoria tells you to throw caution to the wind. Both emotions are signals. But they are inverted signals. When fear is extreme, value appears. When euphoria is extreme, danger hides. ________________________________________ Why Buying Fear Works Markets are pricing machines. They constantly adjust prices based on emotions, news, and expectations. When fear hits, selling pressure often goes beyond what is rational. People dump assets for emotional reasons, not fundamental ones. Here’s why buying fear works: • Overreaction: Bad news usually causes exaggerated moves. • Liquidity Vacuums: Everyone sells, no one buys, creating sharp discounts. • Reversion to Mean: Extreme moves tend to revert once emotions stabilize. Buying into fear is not about being reckless. It’s about recognizing that the best deals are available when others are too scared to see them. ________________________________________ Why Chasing Euphoria Fails At the peak of euphoria, risks are often invisible to the crowd. Valuations are stretched. Expectations are unrealistic. Everyone "knows" it's going higher — which ironically means there's no one left to buy. Chasing euphoria often leads to: • Buying high, selling low. • Getting trapped at tops. • Emotional regret and revenge trading. You’re not just buying an asset — you're buying into a mass illusion. ________________________________________ How to Train Yourself to Buy Fear It's not enough to "know" this. In the heat of the moment, you will still feel the fear. Here's how you build the right habit: 1. Pre-plan your entries: Before panic strikes, have a plan. Know where you want to buy. 2. Focus on strong assets: Not everything that falls is worth buying. Choose assets with strong fundamentals or clear technical setups. 3. Scale in: Don’t try to catch the bottom perfectly. Build positions gradually as fear peaks. 4. Use alerts, not emotions: Set price alerts. When they trigger, act mechanically. 5. Remember past patterns: Study previous fear-driven crashes. See how they recovered over time. Trading is a game of memory. The more you internalize past patterns, the easier it is to act when everyone else panics. ________________________________________ A Recent Example: April 2025 Tariff Panic Very recently, at the start of April, Trump’s new tariff announcements sent shockwaves through the market. Panic took over. Headlines screamed. Social media was flooded with fear. But if you looked beyond the noise, charts like SP500 and US30 told a different story: the drops took price right into strong support zones. At the time, I even posted this : support zones were being tested under emotional pressure. If you had price alerts set and reacted mechanically, not emotionally , you could have bought into that fear — and potentially benefited from the rebound that followed just days later. This is the essence of buying fear. ________________________________________ Final Thoughts In trading, you are paid for doing the hard things. Buying when it feels terrible. Selling when it feels amazing. Remember: Fear offers you discounts. Euphoria offers you traps. The next time the market feels like it's crashing, ask yourself: • Is this fear real, or exaggerated? • Is this an opportunity hiding under an emotional fog? If you can answer that with clarity, you're already ahead of 90% of traders. Stay rational. Stay prepared. And above all: buy fear, not euphoria. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:US500Education
by Mihai_Iacob
Game-changing analysis technique that will elevate your strategyAs many of my loyal followers know, my analysis toolkit goes beyond just the standard fare of CME options data and COT reports. I dive deeper, utilizing additional filters like the average long and short positions of retail traders. These insights are publicly available, and while I won’t name specific sources to avoid any hint of hidden promotion, I’ll give you a clue: look for a website with the word "book" in its title. 📚 For years, I’ve relied on this data, and it has proven to be both reliable and insightful. The average positions of market participants serve as both filters and indicators. But what do I mean by indicators? Let’s break it down. When the price interacts with these levels, it reveals the market sentiment. For instance, if the price is below the average long position and breaks through easily, it’s a bullish sentiment. Conversely, if it hovers below the level and struggles to break through, that’s still bullish, as it indicates buyers are being drawn into profitable territory. Now, let’s flip the script for the bears: if the price breaks down from above or struggles below the average short position, that’s a bearish sentiment. The price isn’t responding to sellers, dragging them into a profit land. There’s more. Often, you’ll notice different behaviors near these key levels, allowing you to enter positions with an incredible risk/reward ratio of 3:1, 5:1, or even better! This clarity gives you insight into the current market mood—who’s being punished and who’s favored at that moment. Now, let’s take a look at the screenshot of the British Pound futures chart. Here’s what you’ll see: - A green line representing the average long position of retail traders. - A red line for the average short position. - The breakeven point of a put option contract for the June futures expiring on May 22, with 1,320 contracts at a strike of 1.295. Take a moment to study the chart. What do you observe? 🤓 Ok, breathe in, breathe out. Tomorrow, we’ll dive deeper into this analysis. Don’t forget to subscribe so you won’t miss the continuation of this story! The insights I’ll share are definitely worth your time, as I aim to shift your perspective on the market by demonstrating a clear methodology without relying on indicators or technical patterns. Stay tuned; it’s going to be incredibly valuable! 🚀✨
CME:6B1!Education
by ClashChartsTeam
The Golden Code: Unlocking the Markets with Fibonacci Sequence “Mathematics is the language in which God has written the universe.” – Galileo Galilei If this is true, then the Fibonacci sequence is the poetry of that language, especially in trading. 📚 What is Fibonacci? Why Should Traders Care? Fibonacci is more than just a sequence of numbers — it’s a universal law of growth and proportion. From galaxies to sunflowers, and now to the charts on your TradingView screen, Fibonacci is everywhere. In trading, Fibonacci retracement levels are used to identify potential reversal zones, where price is likely to bounce or stall, making it one of the most powerful tools in a trader’s arsenal. But few truly understand its depth, and fewer still use it intelligently. Let’s dive into the power of the Fibonacci sequence, how it influences retracements, and how you can use it to your trading advantage, whether you’re a scalper, swing trader, or position trader. 🧠 The Fibonacci Sequence: Where It All Begins The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ... Some Math somebody? Take your seats and calculators away! 😂😂 📉 Fibonacci Retracement Levels & How They're Calculated These levels are percentages based on relationships between Fibonacci numbers. ✅ 0.236 (23.6%) Divide a number by the one three places ahead: Example: 13 ÷ 55 = 0.236 Another: 21 ÷ 89 = 0.236 ✅ 0.382 (38.2%) Divide a number by the one two places ahead: Example: 21 ÷ 55 = 0.382 Another: 34 ÷ 89 = 0.382 ✅ 0.500 (50.0%) Not directly from Fibonacci, but commonly used due to psychological midpoint in markets. ✅ 0.618 (61.8%) – The Golden Ratio Divide a number by the next number: Example: 34 ÷ 55 = 0.618 Another: 55 ÷ 89 = 0.618 This is the famous Golden Ratio, which appears in nature, art, and financial markets. ✅ 0.786 (78.6%) Derived from the square root of 0.618: √0.618 = 0.786 📈 Fibonacci Extension Levels & How They're Calculated Extensions project price targets beyond the retracement. ✅ 1.000 (100%) A full projection of the original move. ✅ 1.272 (127.2%) Square root of 1.618: √1.618 = 1.272 ✅ 1.618 (161.8%) – The Golden Extension Divide a number by the previous one: Example: 55 ÷ 34 = 1.618 Another: 89 ÷ 55 = 1.618 ✅ 2.000 (200%) A full double of the original move. ✅ 2.618 (261.8%) 1.618 + 1.000 = 2.618 This creates ratios that are found in nature, architecture, music, and, yes, price movements. 🔍 Fibonacci Retracement: Mapping Pullbacks with Precision When price moves impulsively in one direction, it often retraces a portion of that move before continuing in the same direction. Fibonacci retracement is used to map this pullback. Here’s how traders use it: Identify a clear impulsive move (either bullish or bearish). Plot the Fibonacci retracement tool from swing low to swing high (for bullish moves), or from swing high to swing low (for bearish moves). Watch how price reacts around key levels: 38.2% = Shallow pullback 50% = Midpoint (psychological) 61.8% = Golden Zone 78.6% = Deep retracement (but still valid) 🔥 Pro Tip: Most institutional traders love the 61.8% retracement, often placing hidden liquidity and traps around that area. 🔄 Fibonacci Extensions: Predicting Take-Profit Zones Once price retraces and continues its trend, Fibonacci extensions help identify possible target zones: Common extension levels: 1.272 1.618 → Golden Target 2.000 2.618 For example: After a bullish retracement to 61.8%, price often rallies to 1.272 or 1.618 extensions, making these ideal profit-taking zones. 🔄 Real-Life Market Behavior: Fibonacci in Price Action Let’s take a real example: 🟨 Example: XAU/USD Bearish Retracement Impulsive rally from $2,832.99 to $2,930.77. Price pulls back to $2,880 – exactly at the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Followed by a strong continuation to the upside. Price reach for the 127.20% and beyond to 161.80% Fibonacci extension of the original rally before pausing for some times — textbook Fibonacci behavior. 💡 This isn’t magic. It’s structure, order, and smart money playing on the same field. 🧬 Fibonacci + Confluence = Confirmation Fibonacci works best when combined with other tools: Support/Resistance Order Blocks Imbalances Trendlines Candlestick Patterns ✅ A 61.8% retracement + bullish order block + bullish engulfing = a high-probability long setup. ✅ A 78.6% retracement + unfilled imbalance = possible stop-hunt trap or liquidity grab. 🧠 Fibonacci Psychology: Why It Works Fibonacci works because it reflects natural human behavior: Fear and greed create overextensions and pullbacks. Traders place stops and entries near these key ratios, causing self-fulfilling reactions. Algorithms and institutional models often base trade entries on Fibonacci confluences. 💥 Common Mistakes Traders Make ❌ Using Fibonacci on every small swing – noise, not signal ❌ Forcing the retracement tool to “fit” your bias ❌ Ignoring higher time frame structure ❌ Using Fibonacci alone without confluence Remember: Fibonacci is a guide, not a guarantee. 📈 How to Trade with Fibonacci (Step-by-Step) First, identify market structure (trending or ranging). Second, mark swing high and swing low. Third, plot retracement tool accordingly. Fourth, look for confluence zones: 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%... Price action signals (e.g., pin bars, engulfing) Institutional concepts (order blocks, imbalances) Enter with confirmation, not just based on levels. Set stop loss below/above structure or 78.6% line. Target extension levels or previous high/low. 🌀 Fibonacci in Different Trading Styles Scalpers Use Fibonacci on 1min–5min timeframes to catch micro pullbacks and entries. Swing Traders Use Fib retracements from daily or 4H structure to plot entries and targets. Position Traders Use weekly/monthly Fibonacci zones for macro views and long-term targets. 🧠 Final Thoughts: Fibonacci Is Structure, Not Sorcery The Fibonacci sequence is a map of order in a chaotic world. In trading, it helps bring discipline, clarity, and precision. It’s not about being right every time, it’s about stacking probabilities in your favor. 🧭 Ready to Master Fibonacci? If you’ve read this far, drop your thoughts in the comments and share your favorite Fibonacci setup! Let’s build a community of traders who use mathematics and structure, not hope and guesswork. Follow for more educational breakdowns, trading insights, and strategy walkthroughs — posted weekly.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by AmaWina
HOW-TO: Use the Camarilla Pivots & BBT Strategies indicatorThis how-to shows the Camarilla Pivot & BBT Strategies indicator in action, the 5-minute timeframe is ideal for this. It shows the price action reacting to the HA play (S3 to R3 traversal). The "H" means that the ticker is in a Higher range on this day, the "A" refers to the label on the strategy in the image. In fact, the price does past R3 (which is the exit point) and reaches R4, at which point it trigger the "E" play, which is an R4 extreme reversal. A great trade, if you took it!
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Bruzio
Unlock Trading Success with Multi-Timeframe MasteryIn trading, particularly in the Forex market, a well-defined strategy is crucial for consistent profitability. One of the most effective techniques used by successful traders is multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis. By examining price action across different timeframes (e.g., daily, 4-hour, 1-hour), traders gain a clearer understanding of market structure, trend direction, and optimal entry/exit points. This article explores how MTF analysis works, its benefits, and practical steps to implement it in your trading. 🔍1. Analyzing a Pair Across Multiple Timeframes for Clearer Trend Direction The foundation of MTF analysis lies in identifying the major and minor trends. By analyzing at least two timeframes, traders can align their strategies with the broader market direction while fine-tuning entries on shorter timeframes. ⚡The High Wave Cycle (HWC) Approach To begin, determine your High Wave Cycle (HWC), which depends on your trading strategy and timeframe. For instance: If you trade on the daily timeframe, your HWC might be the monthly chart. If you trade on the 1-hour timeframe, your HWC could be the weekly chart. The HWC helps you identify the major trend. For example, on the daily chart, you might analyze the trend using Dow Theory, pinpoint key support and resistance levels, and identify trendlines or patterns. This gives you a clear picture of the market’s broader direction. Once the HWC is defined, give it significant weight when analyzing lower timeframes for trade setups. For instance, if the daily chart (HWC) shows a downtrend, you’d prioritize bearish setups on the 1-hour chart, even if a minor uptrend appears. Example: SOLUSDT Trade Setup Consider a scenario where the 1-hour chart shows a strong uptrend. The price breaks a key resistance level and a descending trendline, suggesting a potential long position. However, checking the daily chart.. (HWC) reveals a clear downtrend. According to Dow Theory, a major trend reversal requires a confirmed break above the previous high (e.g., $150). Since this hasn’t occurred, the market remains bearish. In this case, MTF analysis guides your strategy: Reduce position size to lower risk, as you’re trading against the major trend. Take profits early, as the price could reverse at any moment. Avoid overtrading by limiting the number of positions until the trend change is confirmed. This approach ensures your trades are aligned with the bigger picture, minimizing losses from false signals. 🎯2. Spotting Entries and Exits by Confirming Trends Across Timeframes MTF analysis not only enhances risk management but also improves the precision of your entries and exits. By confirming signals across timeframes, you can filter out noise and focus on high-probability trades. Example: Bitcoin (May 15, 2021) Let’s rewind to May 15, 2021, during Bitcoin’s post-bull run correction. On the daily chart (HWC), the price formed lower highs and lows, breaking a key support level, signaling a bearish trend and a potential exit for long positions. This indicates that spot traders should sell, and swing traders on lower timeframes should focus exclusively on short positions. On the 1-hour chart, you might spot a minor pullback, tempting a long trade. However, MTF analysis reminds you to align with the daily downtrend, so you’d only consider short setups. This disciplined approach prevents you from trading against the major trend, improving your win rate. 📊The Medium Wave Cycle (MWC) for Added Clarity Between the HWC and lower timeframes lies the Medium Wave Cycle (MWC), which provides an intermediate perspective. For example, if your HWC is the daily chart, the MWC might be the 4-hour chart. The MWC helps confirm the major trend’s strength or detect early signs of reversals before zooming into lower timeframes for entries. By checking the MWC, you can filter out noise and ensure your trades align with both the major and intermediate trends. 💡Conclusion Multi-timeframe analysis is a game-changer for traders seeking consistency and precision. By combining the major trend from your HWC, the intermediate perspective from your MWC, and minor trends on lower timeframes, you can make informed decisions, manage risk effectively, and time your trades with confidence. Start by defining your HWC and MWC, analyzing the major trend, and aligning your entries and exits with multiple timeframes. Pick a pair, test this strategy on a demo account, and share your results in the comments below! With practice, MTF analysis will give you a tactical edge in navigating the markets. 🤍 btw im Skeptic :) & If you found this article helpful, don’t forget to like, share, and follow for more insights and trading strategies! <3
Education
by SkepticWise
1
Gambling Is Not Trading : A Quick Reminder to THINKI've been getting quite a few messages from followers and many are positive. I seems my videos are helping many of you learn better skills and helping you find profits from these bigger price swings. But it also seems some of you are really gambling for the bigger gains with 0DTE options and taking excessive risks (IMO). I want to urge all of you to THINK and to try to learn to adopt a more fluid style of trading. The markets will quickly humble many of you gamblers. They have a way of taking everything you have when you let your guard down. Start Small. Build Your Skills. Learn How To Check Yourself When You Get Into That Gambling Mode. Remember, The Market Can Take EVERYTHING (And MORE). The trick to trading is to learn to GROW your account without gambling. It is like being a Sniper. You have to learn when to take your shot and you also have to learn when to be patient and wait. One of the best pieces of advice I've heard came from a friend (who trades options). He stated. Start Small Book Winners Quickly Book Anything over 20-25% -- Then Plan For The next Attack. Think about it. He's been trading for more than 20 years and has learned many of the pitfalls over that time. And, he is the one guy that I've seen generate 100-200%+ a week (consistently) over the past 2+ years. If you want to survive as a trader, you have to start thinking like a trader (not a GAMBLER). I hope this video helps. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
10
It’s Not Always the Strategy — Sometimes It’s the Wrong PairMany traders endlessly tweak their strategies, thinking small losses or missed trades are always a sign the system itself is broken. But in reality, sometimes the real problem isn't the strategy — it's the market you're applying it to. Different forex pairs have different "personalities." Some are cleaner, trending smoothly with respect to structure, while others are choppier, heavily manipulated, or extremely news-sensitive. A structure-based strategy might perform well on pairs like GBP/JPY, where price respects support, resistance, and supply-demand zones cleanly. But the same strategy could struggle badly on a pair like EUR/USD, where high liquidity and institutional manipulation cause frequent fakeouts and liquidity sweeps. Choosing the right pair for your strategy is just as important as the rules of the system itself. A good strategy in the wrong market will feel like a broken strategy. Before doubting your edge, ask: "Am I applying my system in the right place?" Adapt your focus. Match your strategy with a market that suits its nature — and you'll be surprised how much smoother your trading becomes. #forex #tradingpsychology #forexeducation #gbpjpy #eurusd #forextrading #tradingview
Education
by fxtrends28
Your ULTIMATE Guide For Time Frames in Gold, Forex Trading If you just started trading, you are probably wondering what time frames to trade. In the today's post, I will reveal the difference between mainstream time frames like daily, 4h, 1h, 15m. Firstly, you should know that the selection of a time frame primarily depends on your goals in trading. If you are interested in swing trading strategies, of course, you should concentrate on higher time frames analysis while for scalping the main focus should be on lower time frames. Daily time frame shows a bigger picture. It can be applied for the analysis of a price action for the last weeks, months, and even years. It reveals the historical key levels that can be relevant for swing traders, day traders and scalpers. The patterns that are formed on a daily time frame may predict long-term movements. In the picture above, you can see how the daily time frame can show the price action for the last years, months and weeks. In contrast, hourly time frame reflects intra week & intraday perspectives. The patterns and key levels that are spotted there, will be important for day traders and scalpers. The setups that are spotted on an hourly time frame, will be useful for predicting the intraday moves and occasionally the moves within a trading week. Take a look at the 2 charts above, the hourly time frame perfectly shows the market moves within a week and within a single day. 4H time frame is somewhere in between. For both swing trader and day trader, it may provide some useful confirmations. 4H t.f shows intra week and week to week perspectives. Above, you can see how nicely 4H time frame shows the price action on EURUSD within a week and for the last several weeks. 15 minutes time frame is a scalping time frame. The setups and levels that are spotted there can be used to predict the market moves within hours or within a trading session. Check the charts above: 15 minutes time frame shows both the price action within a London session and the price action for the last couple of hours. It is also critical to mention, that lower is the time frame, lower is the accuracy of the patterns and lower is the strength of key levels that are identified there. It makes higher time frame analysis more simple and reliable. The thing is that higher is the time frame, more important it is for the market participants. While lower time frames can help to predict short term moves, higher time frames are aimed for predicting long-term trends. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
GBP/USD – 1992 Replay | George Soros “Broke the Bank” TradeHistorical Context Summary: This chart revisits the iconic 1992 short by George Soros against the British Pound, which ultimately forced the UK to abandon its currency peg and exit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). The marked zones reflect the approximate levels where Soros reportedly initiated and closed his short position, anticipating a collapse of the GBP against the USD. Real-time Trade Thesis: Soros identified that the British economy was fundamentally too weak to sustain a fixed exchange rate against the Deutsche Mark, enforced through the ERM. Inflation was high, the economy was slowing, and the government was hiking rates and burning through reserves to defend the pound. Meanwhile, Germany’s economy was far stronger, making the GBP significantly overvalued relative to its fundamentals. The Quantum Fund went short over £10 billion worth of GBP using highly leveraged positions, primarily via GBP/USD. On September 16, 1992 ("Black Wednesday") , the Bank of England capitulated after failing to hold the peg, and the pound collapsed—securing Soros one of the most profitable trades in history with over $1 billion in gains. Technical Analysis Context: This GBP/USD chart highlights the upper “order activation” zone where Soros began scaling into his short, as price stalled near the artificially defended level. As speculative pressure intensified, the central bank’s interventions failed, leading to a violent breakdown. The lower box marks the approximate range where Soros likely began closing the trade and locking in profit as the peg failed and panic selling set in. Key Lessons: Pegged currencies can’t defy economic fundamentals forever. Macro conviction + tactical timing = asymmetric return. Central banks can lose to coordinated market pressure. Use leverage wisely, only when your thesis is airtight. Liquidity stress often precedes capitulation—watch reserve flows and bond yields. History leaves patterns—legendary trades repeat in new forms across cycles.
Education
by GreenZoneCapital
From Scanner to Trade: Full Workflow GuidesFrom Scanner to Trade: Full Workflow Guides Table of Contents Introduction Why a Full Workflow is Crucial for Consistent Trading Step 1: Defining Your Edge-What to Scan For Step 2: Setting Up Scanners in TradingView Step 3: Filtering & Ranking Potential Trades Step 4: Deep Analysis-Technical, Fundamental, and Sentiment Checks Step 5: Planning the Trade-Entries, Exits, and Risk Step 6: Executing the Trade and Real-Time Adjustments Step 7: Trade Management-Monitoring and Adapting Step 8: Post-Trade Review and Journaling Step 9: Tips, Case Studies, and Advanced Workflows Conclusion: Making the Scanner-to-Trade Workflow Your Own Introduction What separates a consistent trader from someone who hops between strategies, never seeing results? Workflow. The difference is as dramatic as preparing a gourmet moussaka with carefully layered ingredients versus tossing random ones into a pan. As passionate trading tool creators, we know the power of process . Yet, most TradingView users stop at scanning for new tickers, rarely following a structured approach from scanning to trade selection , execution , and review . That’s where this in-depth guide comes in. This article will walk you through a step-by-step workflow , using TradingView’s powerful features and easy-to-follow frameworks to help you transform from a chart-hopper into a methodical trader. Let’s get started! Why a Full Workflow is Crucial for Consistent Trading Before we break down the process, let’s understand why a workflow matters. Eliminates Guesswork : A workflow ensures every trade passes the same high standards, reducing emotional decisions. Saves Time : Systematic filtering and ranking quickly highlight the best opportunities. Improves Results : Backtests show that traders using a structured workflow outperform those who pick trades impulsively. Enables Review : Every step can be reviewed post-trade, so you always know what worked and what didn’t. The workflow is your trading “recipe.” Follow it, tweak it, and the results will come. Step 1: Defining Your Edge-What to Scan For Your workflow begins before you scan. First, define what you want to find. Are you a breakout trader, mean-reversion specialist, or a momentum chaser? Your edge -the reason you believe you can profit-should drive every scan. Ask Yourself: Do I want to catch squeeze breakouts with momentum? Am I seeking multi-timeframe trend alignment? Are volume spikes important for my entries? Do I care about a stock’s fundamentals or just the chart? Case Study: Finding Squeeze Momentum Setups Suppose you love the squeeze momentum strategy. Your scanner should look for: Low Bollinger Bandwidth (market coiling up) Rising momentum (e.g., MACD turning up) Volume spike confirming interest This is your “ingredient list”-customize it to your taste and strategy. Step 2: Setting Up Scanners in TradingView TradingView’s Stock Screener is powerful, yet many traders barely scratch the surface. Here’s how to go beyond the basics. 2.1 Launching the Screener Open any TradingView chart. Click the Screener tab (bottom panel). Choose Stocks , Crypto , or Forex according to your focus. 2.2 Customizing Your Filters Set market (e.g., NASDAQ, NYSE, Crypto Top 100). Add technical filters: price change %, RSI, MACD, volume, volatility, and, if available, squeeze momentum values (e.g., your custom script output). Add fundamental filters if needed: EPS growth, P/E ratio, market cap, etc. Example Setup: Squeeze Momentum Breakout Scan Market: US stocks (selected in the screener) Liquidity Filter: Volume × Price > 100M USD (focuses on liquid stocks and avoids thinly traded names) Volatility & Momentum Filter: Vol Change > 10% (captures stocks with significant recent movement) Minimum Price Filter: Price > 10 USD (to avoid penny stocks and illiquid tickers) Volatility Squeeze Condition: 1. Bollinger Bands (20, 1 day) Lower above Keltner Channels (20, 1 day) Lower, and 2. Bollinger Bands (20, 1 day) Upper below Keltner Channels (20, 1 day) Upper (classic squeeze setup: BB inside KC highlights contraction/ready-to-expand momentum) Calibration isn't about being perfect-it's about making your tools work better for specific markets. 2.3 Saving and Automating Your Scanner Save your screener settings as a preset ( Save Screener Template ). Set up alerts (once this feature becomes available in TradingView) so you’ll be notified when a new ticker matches your criteria. Step 3: Filtering & Ranking Potential Trades Your scanner likely spits out dozens of results. Time to filter and rank them, so you focus only on the “cream of the crop.” 3.1 The First Pass-Eliminate Noise Skip tickers with low liquidity (e.g., daily volume < 100,000 shares for stocks). Ignore assets with unreliable price action (wide spreads, frequent gaps). Check for major news events or earnings that could cause unexpected volatility. 3.2 Ranking Your Candidates Prioritize by: Strength of signal (e.g., squeeze + multi-timeframe trend alignment) Volume surge (higher is better) Relative strength vs. benchmark (e.g., SPY, BTC) Proximity to strong support/resistance (closer is often better for risk/reward) Pro Tip: Create a Scorecard Assign 1–5 points for each criterion and total up scores for each ticker. Focus on the top 3–5 results. Don’t just “feel” your top picks-score them for objective clarity! Step 4: Deep Analysis-Technical, Fundamental, and Sentiment Checks With ranked candidates, now perform a deeper dive. This is where your experience and favorite tools come into play. 4.1 Charting and Technicals Apply your key indicators (e.g., Squeeze Mom, Power Trends, Volume Profile). Check price structure: higher highs/lows, base breakouts, wedges, etc. Look for confluence: do different indicators and patterns agree? 4.2 Multi-Timeframe Confirmation Check setup validity on daily, 4H, and 1H charts. Does the larger trend support your trade, or are you trading against momentum? 4.3 Optional: Fundamental & Sentiment Checks Is the company reporting earnings soon? Any big news? For crypto, is there on-chain or social sentiment you should know about? Example Workflow: Chart 1: Daily Squeeze setting up, MACD positive, volume picking up. Chart 2: 1H uptrend confirmed, minor pullback for entry. News: No earnings for two weeks-less risk of surprise. Step 5: Planning the Trade-Entries, Exits, and Risk Now that you have a shortlist of well-vetted opportunities, it’s time to craft a plan. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail-so we layer in precise entries, realistic targets, and robust risk management. 5.1 Entry Strategies: The Art of Timing Your scanner found potential, but your entry determines your reward-to-risk. Here’s how to approach it on TradingView: Breakout Entry: Place buy-stop orders just above resistance or the squeeze “release” point. Pullback Entry: Wait for a retrace to moving average or previous support, then enter on bullish reversal candle. Confirmation Entry: Wait for indicator confirmation (e.g., Squeeze firing, MACD cross, volume surge) before pulling the trigger. Great entries are less about prediction and more about preparation and confirmation. Visualizing Your Entry Draw horizontal lines at anticipated entry points ( Alt + J hotkey). Use TradingView’s “long position” tool to visualize profit/loss zones. 5.2 Setting Targets: Aim for Realistic Wins Don’t hope-measure! Define exits before entering so emotion doesn’t sabotage your plan. Price Target: Project a move based on past squeeze breakouts (e.g., last breakout ranged $4, set target for similar move). ATR (Average True Range): Use ATR to estimate typical moves and avoid setting targets too far or too close. Fibonacci Extensions: Use Fibs to find likely resistance/support for partial profits. 5.3 Stop Losses: Defend Your Capital Risk management is your lifeline. Set stops where the trade idea is invalidated-not just at arbitrary numbers. Below previous support or swing low (for long trades). At technical invalidation-e.g., squeeze fails and price dips below the setup. ATR-based stop (e.g., 1.5x ATR below entry). Trade Example: Entry: Breakout above $100. Stop Loss: $97 (previous support, 1.5x ATR). Target: $104 (measured move from last squeeze). 5.4 Position Sizing: How Much to Risk? Golden Rule: Risk only a small percentage of your trading capital per trade. Standard: 1–2% of account per trade. Use TradingView’s position tool to measure. Calculate shares/contracts based on distance from entry to stop. Position sizing is the invisible lever that controls your trading destiny. Step 6: Executing the Trade and Real-Time Adjustments Execution bridges planning and reality. Even the best plans need discipline, fast reflexes, and the willingness to adapt if markets shift. 6.1 Entering the Trade: Be Precise Use limit or stop orders, not market orders, to avoid slippage-especially in fast-moving assets. Review your parameters one last time. Set alerts using TradingView’s Alarm Clock icon for your entry, stop, and target. // Basic Alert Example in Pine Script if (ta.crossover(ta.sma(close, 9),ta.sma(close, 21)) ) alert("Bullish crossover detected", alert.freq_once_per_bar) 6.2 Monitoring During the Trade Keep emotions out-let the process work. However, always watch for: Sudden news events or market shocks. Volume surges against your position. Reversal candles (e.g., bearish engulfing at target zone). 6.3 Adjusting On-the-Fly Sometimes, price action demands flexibility: Move stop to break-even once price moves in your favor. Scale out (sell a portion) at first target, let the rest run. Exit early if your setup is invalidated (e.g., heavy volume reversal). Adaptation is not abandoning the plan-it’s respecting the market’s message. Step 7: Trade Management-Monitoring and Adapting Trade management is an art that separates amateur from pro. 7.1 Trailing Stops and Locking Profits Use trailing stops (fixed % or ATR-based) to lock in gains if price runs well past your target. TradingView’s “long/short position” tool helps visualize your risk/reward as price moves. 7.2 Scaling In/Out Scale in: Add to winners on confirmed strength (e.g., after strong breakout retest). Scale out: Sell partial positions at key resistance/fib levels. 7.3 Dealing With Adverse Moves If stop hit, close trade-review, don’t revenge trade. If setup changes dramatically (e.g., news reversal), consider exiting early. The best traders protect profits, not egos. Step 8: Post-Trade Review and Journaling By now, you’ve completed the trade-but the learning (and edge-building) is just beginning. 8.1 Review Every Trade: The Secret to Improvement Did you follow your plan? If not, why? What worked? What didn’t? Were your scanner criteria effective? Was your sizing/risk on point? 8.2 Journaling Your Workflow Create a trade journal, either in TradingView’s notes or external tool (Notion, Google Sheets, etc.) Screenshot entry/exit with annotations. Log your scanner triggers and reasoning. Add psychological notes: Were you calm or emotional? Tag setups: “Earnings Squeeze,” “Breakout,” etc. A detailed journal is your best trading mentor. 8.3 Performance Analysis Periodically review your logs to spot patterns: Which setups yield best R/R? Where do you most often break your rules? How does time of day/market impact outcomes? Step 9: Tips, Case Studies, and Advanced Workflows 9.1 Expert Tips for Workflow Success Automate alerts for scanner triggers-don’t stare at screens all day. Batch your research (e.g., scan every evening, then focus only on finalists). Develop a pre-trade checklist (see sample below). Refine regularly: Tweak scanner filters as markets evolve. // Sample Pre-Trade Checklist as Comments // 1. Is the squeeze setup clear on multiple timeframes? // 2. Is volume confirming the move? // 3. Any major news/earnings ahead? // 4. Stop loss + target realistic? 9.2 Real-World Case Study: Squeeze Momentum on TSLA Imagine your scanner spits out NASDAQ:TSLA due to a tight squeeze and surge in volume. Analyze the chart: Daily chart shows a strong squeeze setup with multi-timeframe squeezes firing bullish momentum (see the MTF Squeeze dashboard and green histogram). Volume spikes confirm buying interest. The 4H and daily timeframes are both aligned to the upside. Check Earnings: Earnings are 30 days away, reducing the risk of event-driven surprises. Trade Setup: Set entry just above the most recent swing high ( $197.5 ), with stop-loss below the support and squeeze base ( $186 ). The initial profit target is set at a measured move near $220 (prior swing high resistance and typical squeeze expansion). Manage the Trade: Enter on breakout above $197.5; once price reaches around $208–$210, move stop to break-even. As price hits $220, sell half and trail the remainder using the 4H ATR or dynamic support. Journal: “Setup fired as per screener and indicator alignment: volume spike, momentum, and squeeze breakout confirmed. Exited partial at target, managed risk throughout.” 9.3 Advanced: Multi-Timeframe, Multi-Asset Workflow Combine scans across different assets (stocks, crypto, forex) using saved screener presets for catching opportunities globally. Create custom “watchlists” for different strategies, and rotate focus based on market conditions. Stocks: Focus on squeeze breakouts. Crypto: Seek mean reversion in sideways markets. Forex: Look for multi-timeframe trend alignment. Conclusion: Making the Scanner-to-Trade Workflow Your Own Trading is not about prediction, but process. The difference between hope and edge is workflow-layered, adaptable, and reviewable. By mastering the scanner-to-trade workflow, you can: Act with confidence, not hesitation. Avoid missed wins and costly emotional losses. Turn complexity into clarity-one structured step at a time. Start simple, layer in complexity as your skills grow, and let your journal be your improvement compass. The recipes here are just a foundation-make them your own, adapt them for your tools, markets, and goals. Your next high-quality trade is just a repeatable workflow away. Happy trading and happy building!
CME:BTC1!Education
by TradeVizion
Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (4 of 4) Time Value TradingOption Insights – Trading the Greeks Part 4 of 4: Time Value Trading and the Volatility Premium ________________________________________ Introduction to Time Value Strategies Time value strategies are among the most widely used option strategies. In their simplest form, these involve selling options, collecting the premium, and aiming to retain it—i.e., hoping the option remains out-of-the-money (OTM) until expiration. The most common application is the sale of short-term (typically under 3 months, often under 3 weeks) OTM put options on single stocks or equity indices. The core rationale for selling options is time decay: if all other variables remain constant, the passage of time alone reduces the option’s value. As an option seller, time is on your side. This strategy has gained popularity thanks to consistent historical statistics: OTM equity puts have ended worthless most of the time in recent years—especially for zero days to expiration (0DTE) options. This suggests a high probability of success. However, selling puts carries significant downside risk. In periods of market correction or sharp price drops in the underlying, losses can occur that wipe out months—or even years—of accumulated premium. This creates a tradeoff: frequent small profits from selling options, offset by rare but potentially large losses. This asymmetry is evident in the performance of strategies like the PUTW ETF, which systematically sells SPX puts (see introductory chart). ________________________________________ Where Does Time Value Come From—and Why Does It Decay? The time value of an option arises from the volatility of the underlying asset. If the underlying price exhibited no volatility—moving linearly at a fixed rate—option values would simply reflect discounted intrinsic value at expiration. In that world, options would behave predictably and hold no additional time value. But in reality, assets fluctuate. Volatility introduces uncertainty, which increases the value of the option due to its asymmetric payoff: • If the price ends far in-the-money (ITM), the buyer benefits fully. • If it ends far out-of-the-money (OTM), the buyer loses only the premium. This favorable risk profile has value, which is reflected in the option’s time value—the premium over its intrinsic value. This time value increases with: • Longer expiration horizons • Higher volatility • Proximity to the money When options move far from the strike price (deep ITM or OTM), they begin to resemble synthetic linear positions (long or short underlying) or a “null” position, and the asymmetric advantage—and hence time value—diminishes. ________________________________________ What Is Actually Traded in Time Value Strategies? Selling short-term options is essentially a range-trading strategy. The trader is expressing a view that, by expiration, the underlying will not enter a specific price range. For put sellers, this range extends from the strike price down to zero: • If the underlying stays above the strike, the premium is kept. • If it drops below, losses can be substantial. In this setup: • Delta represents the key short-term risk factor (price sensitivity). • Over time, Theta (time decay) takes over close to the strike price. This range-based view may be easier to formulate than directional price forecasts. Traders are effectively betting on the probability that the underlying finishes OTM. Black-Scholes implied probabilities for OTM options to end OTM are typically above 50%. However, each trader must assess whether the real-world probability is higher or lower. Success hinges on understanding the drivers of real-world price distributions, including technical levels, macroeconomic triggers, and potential pivot zones that define future price ranges. ________________________________________ Risk Management in Time Value Trading A well-defined risk management plan is essential for time value strategies. If the underlying moves contrary to expectations, actions include: • Closing the position and accepting a loss (realize losses early, when they are small, especially if hope is only reason to hang on) • Hedging with the underlying asset (Delta Target/Hedge) • Selling option spreads instead of naked options (limiting downside) • Using entry filters to avoid risky environments For example, in U.S. equity markets, traders often avoid selling puts when: • VIX9D rises above the VIX • The first VIX future trades above the second These are signs of market stress and increased near-term volatility. Typical guidelines for selling index puts: • Sell index puts with Deltas between -20 and -30, as these are often favored by institutional hedgers. • Buy back short puts when Delta reaches -10, as the remaining premium does not justify the risk. • Selling options with a Delta of around ±10 is colloquially known as "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller"—frequent very small wins with looming large risks. ________________________________________ Monetizing the Volatility Premium One of the most compelling aspects of time value trading is the opportunity to capture the volatility premium. Historically, the implied volatility of index options has been consistently higher than the realized volatility of the underlying index. This difference—implied minus realized—is the volatility premium. Why Does the Volatility Premium Exist? Primarily due to: • Hedging demand, especially from leveraged players • Structural imbalances in supply and demand for options For example, SPX volatility premium is often visualized by comparing: • VIX (a synthetic 30-day implied volatility index) • Rolling 30-day realized volatility of the SPX ________________________________________ This premium can be exploited through two main methods: 1. Selling variance swaps 2. Selling options and delta-hedging with the underlying ________________________________________ How Does Selling Options Capture the Volatility Premium? Experienced vs. Calculated Volatility Monetizing the volatility premium essentially involves shorting the spread between implied volatility and ex-post realized volatility—effectively being short implied volatility while being long realized volatility. This relationship is most directly observable in variance swaps, where the final payoff is precisely the difference between the initially implied variance and the ex-post realized variance (i.e., the square of volatility). Though not identical to the direct difference in volatilities, it is effectively equivalent in the context of variance swaps. However, when trading options—or the underlying asset—neither implied nor realized volatility can be directly traded in isolation. Instead, what can be monetized is the price of volatility. This is done by selling the option premium, which reflects the market’s price for implied volatility for a specific strike and expiration date. Realized volatility, in turn, can be "traded" by replicating the option's payoff through a delta-hedging strategy. In such a replication, the final cost of the strategy corresponds to the option premium as if it had been priced using the ex-post realized volatility. Replicating a long option in this way is functionally equivalent to delta-neutralizing a short option position. Thus, capturing the volatility premium using options involves selling options (becoming short the price of implied volatility) and delta-hedging the position with the underlying asset. This hedge effectively replicates the value of the option as priced with realized volatility. ________________________________________ Important Distinctions: • In a variance swap, realized volatility refers to the variance or standard deviation of daily returns (calculated realized volatility). • In a delta-neutral option strategy, the realized volatility depends on the hedging frequency and is called experienced volatility. While the payoff of a variance swap reflects the difference between implied variance and calculated realized variance, an option-selling strategy monetizes the premium (implied volatility) versus the replication cost (based on experienced volatility). This distinction marks a key difference between using options versus variance swaps to capture the volatility premium. Variance swaps are passive and fixed in structure, whereas option-based strategies introduce degrees of freedom in how delta hedging is executed—thereby influencing which realized volatility is ultimately experienced. The art of monetizing the volatility premium through options lies in designing a hedging strategy that minimizes experienced realized volatility over the life of the trade. When done effectively, this approach can be profitable even when calculated realized volatility exceeds the initial implied volatility. That said, selling options while delta-hedging introduces gamma risk—the risk arising from large or frequent movements in the underlying asset. The profitability of the strategy becomes path-dependent, driven by how volatile and jumpy the asset is during the option’s life. This introduces another layer of complexity that differentiates option-based strategies from variance swaps. There is another way to trade the implied vs. realized spread via Timer Options, which we will not cover here. ________________________________________ Gamma Scalping vs. Volatility Premium Strategies Though seemingly opposite, Gamma Scalping and Volatility Premium capture strategies via options are surprisingly complementary. Both strategies involve option positions + underlying hedges, but with different objectives for hedge execution. While Gamma Scalping’s Delta Hedge is balancing countercyclical, trying to maximize the experienced volatility, Volatility Premium Strategies hedge Pro-cyclical and try to minimize the experienced volatility. by parsifaltrading
CBOE:PUTEducation
by parsifaltrading
Visa-Ripple Partnership Could Spark a Significan from Trenovia GThe financial world is undergoing a period of active transformation, and one of the most talked-about developments is the potential partnership between Visa and Ripple. According to a new analytical report by Trenovia Group, such a strategic collaboration could act as a catalyst for a substantial rise in Visa's stock value in the coming months. Key Growth Drivers Trenovia Group analysts emphasize that integrating Ripple’s technologies into Visa’s ecosystem would dramatically enhance the speed and reduce the cost of international transactions. RippleNet, built on blockchain technology, offers unique advantages: near-instant settlements, greater transparency, and lower fees compared to traditional interbank systems. Partnering with Ripple would provide Visa with a powerful technological upgrade, reinforcing its dominance in the payment solutions market, particularly in cross-border transfers. Expected Market Reaction According to Trenovia Group, even the announcement of such a partnership could trigger a strong positive reaction from investors. In an increasingly competitive payments landscape, adopting blockchain innovations would be seen as a forward-looking move, enhancing Visa’s market appeal. Technical analysis also points to favorable conditions: Visa shares are maintaining solid support around $260, and the formation of a "bullish flag" pattern suggests the potential for a breakout following positive news. Strategic Importance of the Alliance Trenovia Group highlights the long-term strategic benefits of this union. As digital currencies and decentralized payment systems gain traction, the integration of blockchain-based solutions would ensure Visa’s adaptability to evolving market and regulatory demands. Meanwhile, Ripple would gain access to Visa’s vast global client network, boosting its position as a leader in the corporate cross-border payments sector. Conclusion According to Trenovia Group’s forecast, the Visa-Ripple partnership could provide a powerful boost to Visa’s stock. Upon successful integration of RippleNet technologies, analysts project a 15–25% rise in Visa's share price within the first six months after the announcement. For investors, this could represent a rare opportunity to invest in the expansion of the world’s leading payment platform during a crucial phase of digital transformation.
CRYPTOCAP:XRPEducation
by HCN-News12
Gravions IG: Why Apple's Shift to India Could Trigger a Drop in Apple is betting heavily on changing its production geography, planning to move a significant portion of iPhone assembly from China to India by 2026. Analysts at Gravions IG have assessed the situation and concluded that this move could negatively impact the company’s stock value in the near term. Key Risks of Production Relocation Indian manufacturing facilities, although growing rapidly, have not yet achieved the level of quality and logistical efficiency seen at Chinese plants. Gravions IG emphasizes that reconfiguring production processes takes time, and potential disruptions in supply chains or reduced quality in the early batches could trigger dissatisfaction among consumers and partners. According to their analysis, the transition could increase product costs and squeeze profit margins, putting pressure on Apple’s financial results over the next few quarters. Investor Reactions Current market behavior reflects investor caution: Apple's share price has already fallen nearly 17% since the start of the year, with technical indicators suggesting further declines. The formation of a "death cross" — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average — heightens concerns about a prolonged downtrend. Gravions IG stresses that until the Indian production lines are fully operational and stable, Apple's stock will likely remain under selling pressure. Strategic Perspective: Opportunity or Risk? In the long run, diversifying manufacturing could benefit Apple by reducing its dependence on China and insulating it from potential geopolitical or economic shocks. Additionally, the Indian government's efforts to bolster its manufacturing sector could provide Apple with a stronger foundation for future expansion. Still, Gravions IG insists that until Indian facilities reach consistent quality and scale, Apple will be vulnerable to market sentiment swings and potential reputational risks. Conclusion Relocating production is a strategically sound but high-risk move for Apple in the short term. Gravions IG advises investors to closely monitor product quality and supply chain stability in India before making long-term investment decisions regarding Apple's stock.
PYTH:AAPLEducation
by HCN-News12