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Trading Gold on lower TF. Educational only. Very recent.Here is another example of trading on the very low time frame. I was live here trading and I had 2 Short positions, one of which I close during the video. I would not say that being on the very low TF's is better. But what it does allow for is to see the way price is moving in the lead-up to the low timeframes 1-15 minutes. Down on the very low TF's you will see the same patterns and formation just like the higher TF's, lots of D/tops, D/bottoms and even the 1 second has these patterns. I think its an advantage to be on very low timeframes when trading things like Heads n Shoulders patterns because you can see what is happening in the price action. For example, say you are waiting for price to move up to the neckline where the pattern may trigger your Long and you are on the 1 minute timeframe, but you see that price is ever so gently receding and moving back down. Well, I would drop to the very low timeframes all the way down to 1 second. Now back to our example, on the 1 second TF I see a double top and because we are on the 1 sec things will move a bit faster. However, I have confirmed why price is moving back a bit on the 1 miute. The very low TF's confirm that price is moving down a bit due to a Double top forming, so I do not worry so much and I wait until the D/top plays out and then my pattern on the 1-5 minutes will hopefully stay in play.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDEducation
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
How to Trade Lower Liquidity Festive MarketsWith the festive season upon us, there tends to be a natural decline in trading activity as many market participants step away to enjoy the holidays. This change in rhythm creates unique market dynamics, offering traders an opportunity to observe and adapt to a different set of conditions. Liquidity often decreases during this time, which can influence price behaviour, spreads, and volatility. Understanding these shifts can help you approach the markets with greater awareness and flexibility, whether you decide to trade actively or simply observe from the sidelines. What Happens in Lower Liquidity Markets? Lower liquidity means there are fewer buyers and sellers actively participating in the market. As a result, price movements can become less predictable. Even a relatively small order can cause larger-than-expected moves, creating the potential for heightened volatility. Spreads—particularly in less-traded instruments—may also widen, increasing transaction costs. This is something to keep an eye on, especially if you trade in smaller-cap stocks, emerging market currencies, or commodities with seasonal demand swings. However, it’s not all about increased volatility and wider spreads. Lower liquidity can also bring periods of calm to typically active markets, especially in the absence of major news or data releases. Adapting to the Festive Markets The key to navigating festive markets is adaptability. Here are some practical tips to help you stay on top of your trading this Christmas: 1. Focus on Major Markets and Instruments During periods of reduced liquidity, larger markets like major currency pairs or blue-chip stocks tend to remain more stable than smaller, niche instruments. Staying with these higher-liquidity markets can reduce the risk of unexpected price swings. 2. Be Selective with Trades The festive season isn’t the time to chase every opportunity. Instead, focus on high-quality setups and avoid overtrading. Patience can be your biggest asset when market conditions are unpredictable. 3. Adjust Your Risk Management Lower liquidity markets can lead to greater volatility, which means a single price move might reach your stop-loss or take-profit levels more quickly than expected. Consider adjusting your position sizes or widening your stop-loss levels to account for this. That said, any changes to your risk management approach should align with your overall trading strategy. 4. Keep an Eye on Key Levels In quieter markets, price tends to gravitate towards well-defined support and resistance levels. These levels often become even more significant, as fewer participants can break through them. 5. Pay Attention to News Events Even during the festive season, economic data releases and news events can spark movement. With fewer participants, the impact of these events may be amplified, so it’s worth staying informed. Useful Indicators for Festive Markets Using technical indicators can provide added clarity in lower liquidity conditions. Here are some tools to consider: • ATR (Average True Range): ATR can help you gauge market volatility. During low-liquidity periods, rising ATR values may signal increased volatility, while falling ATR values might indicate a quieter market. • Volume: Monitoring volume is crucial to understand the strength of price moves. During the festive period, lower volume is expected, but an unusual spike can indicate genuine interest in a breakout or trend. • Anchored VWAP: Anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) is a helpful tool for identifying key levels where trading volume has concentrated. Anchoring the VWAP to significant events, such as the start of the festive trading period, can provide dynamic support or resistance levels. • Keltner Channels: These are particularly useful for managing trades. Setting Keltner Channels to 2.5 ATR around a 20-day exponential moving average (standard settings) can help identify overextended moves. For instance, if the price breaks above the upper channel in a long trade, it may be a good signal to take profits into strength. Example: S&P 500 On the S&P 500, we can observe some classic festive market behaviour. While daily volume has remained steady, ATR has been declining since Thanksgiving, dropping to levels not seen since the summer. This suggests the market is consolidating near broken resistance—a key level—aligned with the Keltner Channel’s basis. Just below this area lies the VWAP anchored to the November swing low, creating a zone of confluent support that could attract higher levels of liquidity. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary: The festive season introduces a unique set of market conditions that can challenge even experienced traders. Whether you choose to trade actively or observe from the sidelines, understanding how reduced liquidity affects price behaviour is key to navigating these quieter markets. By focusing on major instruments, refining your risk management, and leveraging key technical indicators like ATR, volume, Anchored VWAP, and Keltner Channels, you can adapt to the rhythm of the season and make the most of what the markets offer during this period. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Capitalcom
Silver Bullet Strategy AUDUSD | 17/12/2024At 9:55 EST, we arrived at our trading desk to scout for trades using silver bullet strategy. We focused on these pairs EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD, hoping to get favorable trading conditions during the session. After 15 minutes, our first FVG formed on GBPUSD, indicating a buying opportunity when price retraces into the FVG on this currency pair. Five minutes later, a similar setup to that which formed on GBPUSD appeared on USDCAD as well indicating that we also look for buying opportunities on this pair when we get a retrace into the FVG. Shortly, a FVG formed on AUDUSD, suggesting a selling opportunity when the price retraces into the newly formed FVG. Immediately after identifying the FVG on AUDUSD, the next candle entered the FVG fulfilling all the requirements for our entry criteria. We executed the trade and monitored the other pairs to check if any of them met the entry criteria. However, none of them had at that time, so we entered one trade and waited to see others would give us an entry. We had only 25 minutes to enter the two other setups we observed, otherwise, we would not be able to take those trades due to our trade deadline being at 11:00 EST. We checked USDCAD and realized we got a retrace, but it failed to go lower to give us an entry, so we did nothing. A similar situation was encountered on GBPUSD. We failed to get an entry on the other pairs, however, the positive aspect was that our trade on AUDUSD was progressing well in our intended direction. After waiting a while, we checked on the position again to assess its performance only to realize it had retraced back to our entry point. An ideal situation? No, but this was the reality, we remained unfazed because we had only risked an amount we were comfortable losing. The trade consolidated around our entry price for a while, but we were in no rush. We had three options: 1. Trade reaches the take profit 2. The trade hits the stop loss 3. We manually close the trades at 16:00 EST These are the rules we have on our checklist and we intend to stick by them This trade neither hit our TP nor SL, so we decided to manually close it at 16:00 EST for a small profit, which we’re perfectly okay with. Remember, simply following your trading rules is a win on its own. Your rules exist for a reason!
Education
by CleoFinance
1
Did you Know ?!!!Did you really think that profiting from the current bull run (a comprehensive upward market) would be easy? Don't be naive. Do you think they will let you buy, hold, and sell at low levels without any struggle? If it were that simple, everyone would be rich. But the truth is: 90% of you will lose. Why? Because the crypto market is not designed for everyone to win. They will shake you. They will make you doubt everything. They will panic you and sell at the worst possible moment. Do you know what happens next? The best players in this game buy when there is fear, not sell; because your panic gives them cheap assets. This is how the game goes: strong hands feed off weak hands. They exaggerate every dip, every correction, every sale. They make it look like the end of the world so that you abandon everything, and when the market starts up again, you'll sit there saying, "What the heck just happened?" This is not an accident. It's a system. The market rewards patience and punishes weak emotions. The big players already know your thoughts. They know exactly when and how to stir fear to make you give up. Because when you panic, they profit. They don't play the market. They play you. That's why most people never succeed. Because they fall into the same traps over and over again. People don't realize that dips, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and panic are all part of the plan. But the winners? They digest the noise. They know that fear is temporary, but smart decisions last forever. We've seen this hundreds of times. They pump the market after you sell. They take your assets, hold them, and sell them to you at the top, leaving you with nothing, wondering how it happened. Don't play their game. Play your own.
Education
by CobraVanguard
8
Pride Comes Before the Fall: A Trading Lesson in HumilityIn trading, as in life, pride can be your undoing. The saying “Pride comes before the fall” holds a profound lesson for traders who let overconfidence cloud their judgment. While confidence is an essential trait for success, excessive pride often leads to reckless decision-making, ignored warnings, and ultimately, significant losses. This post explores the dangers of pride in trading and how maintaining humility can safeguard your capital and enhance your decision-making process. The Dangers of Pride in Trading 1. Overconfidence in Winning Streaks Few things inflate a trader's ego like a winning streak. When every trade seems to go in your favor, it's tempting to believe you've mastered the market. However, markets are dynamic and unforgiving. - Overconfidence may lead you to take larger positions, abandon risk management strategies, or ignore market signals. - A single unexpected move can erase gains and even wipe out your account. 2. Refusal to Admit Mistakes Pride can prevent traders from accepting when a trade idea is wrong. This often results in: - Holding onto losing trades longer than necessary. - Averaging down into bad positions, magnifying losses. - Ignoring stop-loss levels because of a belief that the market will "come back." 3. Chasing "Revenge Trades" After a loss, pride might push you to recover your losses immediately by doubling down on risk. Revenge trading is driven by emotions rather than logic, often leading to bigger losses. 4. Ignoring the Bigger Picture Pride can blind traders to critical market realities. Instead of adapting to changing conditions, they stubbornly cling to outdated strategies or refuse to learn from others. How to Keep Pride in Check 1. Treat Every Trade as a Probability Game The market doesn't owe you anything, and no strategy guarantees success. Every trade involves risk, and outcomes are influenced by factors beyond your control. - Focus on executing your strategy consistently rather than trying to "win." - Acknowledge that losses are a natural part of trading. 2. Stick to a Risk Management Plan Pride can tempt you to exceed your risk limits. Combat this by: - Using fixed position sizes relative to your account balance. - Setting stop-loss levels for every trade and respecting them. 3. Practice Continuous Learning Markets evolve, and so should you. Humility keeps you open to learning new strategies, techniques, and perspectives. - Analyze your trades, both wins and losses, to identify areas for improvement. - Seek mentorship or study market history to gain broader insights. 4. Detach Emotionally from Trades Acknowledge that a single trade doesn't define you as a trader. - Avoid tying your self-worth to your trading results. - Focus on the long-term process rather than short-term outcomes. Conclusion Pride is one of the most dangerous emotions a trader can harbor. It clouds judgment, promotes reckless behavior, and blinds you to market realities. Trading is not about proving you're right—it's about staying disciplined, managing risk, and adapting to ever-changing conditions. Remember, humility is your greatest ally in the market. Stay grounded, respect the risks, and you'll be better equipped to navigate the ups and downs of trading without falling victim to the perils of pride. Pro Tip: Write this on a sticky note and place it near your trading screen: "The market is always right. My job is to listen, adapt, and act accordingly."
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
2
EXTENDED SESSION WITH SESSION BREAKSAn Extended Session refers to the trading hours that occur outside of a market's regular or standard session, often including pre-market and after-market hours. These sessions are typically used by investors and traders to react to news, earnings reports, or other events that happen outside of normal trading hours. Session Breaks in Trading refer to the natural pauses or transitions between different trading sessions, often marking the end of one session and the beginning of another. These breaks are important for traders because they help delineate key periods of market activity, volatility, and liquidity. Understanding session breaks can assist in timing trades and identifying potential market-moving events.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by atimchenko
What Is ICT Turtle Soup, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is ICT Turtle Soup, and How Can You Use It in Trading? The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a strategic trading approach designed to exploit false breakouts in financial markets. By understanding and leveraging liquidity grabs, traders can identify potential reversals and enter trades with relative precision. This article delves into the components of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, how to identify and use it, and its potential advantages and limitations, providing traders with valuable insights to potentially enhance their trading strategies. The ICT Turtle Soup Pattern Explained ICT Turtle Soup is a trading pattern developed by the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) that focuses on exploiting false breakouts in the market. This ICT price action strategy aims to identify and take advantage of situations where the price briefly moves beyond a key support or resistance level, only to reverse direction shortly after. This movement is often seen in ranging markets where prices oscillate between established highs and lows. The concept behind ICT Turtle Soup trading is rooted in the idea of liquidity hunts and market imbalances. When the price breaks out, it often triggers stop-loss orders set by other traders, creating a temporary imbalance. The ICT Turtle Soup strategy seeks to capitalise on this by entering trades in the opposite direction once the breakout fails and the price returns to its previous range​. The pattern is named humorously after the original Turtle Traders' strategy, which focuses on genuine breakouts. In contrast, ICT Turtle Soup takes advantage of these failed attempts, thus "making soup out of turtles" by transforming unproductive breakout attempts into potentially effective trades​. Typically, traders look for specific signs of a false breakout, such as a price briefly moving above a recent high or below a recent low but failing to sustain the move. This strategy is particularly effective when used in conjunction with other ICT concepts, such as higher timeframe analysis and understanding of market structure​. Components of the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern To effectively utilise the ICT Turtle Soup setup, it’s essential to understand its core components: order flow and market structure, liquidity, and internal versus external liquidity. Order Flow and Market Structure Order flow and market structure are critical in analysing the ICT Turtle Soup pattern. This involves observing price movements and traders' behaviour in different timeframes. Traders can analyse higher and lower timeframe price movements in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Higher Timeframe Structure This refers to the broader trend governing the lower timeframe trend. For traders using the 15m-1h charts to trade, this might mean structure visible on 4-hour, daily, or weekly charts. Higher timeframe structures help traders identify the major support and resistance levels. These levels are essential as they mark the boundaries within which the market generally oscillates. Traders use these to determine the prevailing market direction and potential areas where false breakouts (stop hunts) are likely to occur​. Lower Timeframe Structure Lower timeframe structures are examined on hourly or minute charts. These provide a more detailed view of price action within the higher timeframe’s range and account for the bullish and bearish legs that dictate a broader higher timeframe trend. Liquidity and Stop Hunts In general trading terms, liquidity represents how easy it is to enter or exit a market. However, in the context of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, areas of liquidity can be identified beyond key swing points. Stop Hunts Stop hunts, also known as a liquidity sweep, occur when the price temporarily moves above a resistance level or below a support level to trigger stop-loss orders. This movement creates a liquidity spike as traders' stops are hit, providing a favourable condition for the price to reverse direction. ICT Turtle Soup traders seek to exploit these moments by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction once the liquidity is absorbed. Internal and External Liquidity Understanding internal and external liquidity is vital for applying the ICT Turtle Soup pattern effectively. Internal Liquidity This refers to the liquidity available within the range of the higher timeframe structure. It involves identifying smaller support and resistance levels within the larger range. For example, in a bullish leg, there will be a series of higher highs and higher lows; beneath these higher lows is where internal liquidity rests. This internal liquidity will be targeted to form a bearish leg as part of a higher timeframe bullish trend. External Liquidity This involves liquidity that exists outside the key highs and lows of the higher timeframe trend. To use the example of the bullish leg in a higher timeframe bullish trend, the low it originated from and the high it creates as the bearish retracement begins count as areas of external liquidity. Order Blocks and Imbalances While not directly involved in the ICT Turtle Soup setup, understanding order blocks and imbalances can provide insight into where the price might head and the general market context. Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling activity has previously occurred, often due to institutional orders. These blocks represent zones of support and resistance where the price is likely to react. Bullish Order Blocks These are typically found at the base of a significant upward move and indicate zones where buying interest is strong. When the price revisits these areas, it often finds support, making them potential entry points for long trades​. Bearish Order Blocks Conversely, these are located at the top of significant downward moves and signal strong selling interest. These zones often act as resistance when revisited, making them strategic points for short trades​. Imbalances Imbalances, or fair value gaps (FVGs), are price regions where the market has moved too quickly, creating a significant disparity between the number of long and short trades. These gaps often occur due to high volatility and indicate areas where the market might revisit to "fill" the gap, thereby achieving fair value. In other words, when a price rapidly moves in one direction, it leaves behind an area with little to no trading activity. The market often returns to these imbalanced zones to facilitate proper price discovery and liquidity. How to Use the ICT Turtle Soup Strategy Here's a detailed breakdown of how traders use the ICT Turtle Soup pattern. Establishing a Bias Traders begin by analysing the higher timeframe trend, such as the daily or weekly charts, to establish a market bias. This analysis helps determine whether the market is predominantly bullish or bearish. Identifying this trend is crucial as it guides where to look for potential Turtle Soup setups. For instance, the example above shows AUDUSD initially moving down after a bullish movement off-screen. It eventually breaks above the lower high, indicating that the higher timeframe trend may now be bullish. Similarly, the shorter-term downtrend beginning from mid-May also saw a new high, meaning a trader may want to look for long positions. Identifying Internal Liquidity Once the higher timeframe trend is established, traders look for a move counter to that higher timeframe trend. In the example shown, this would be a downtrend counter to the bullish structure break. They mark levels of internal liquidity; in a bullish leg, these would be below swing lows and vice versa. These areas are likely to attract stop-loss orders. Looking for Liquidity Taps The next step involves waiting for these internal liquidity areas to be tapped. This typically happens when the price briefly breaks through a support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before quickly reversing direction. Ideally, the price should tap into the same area or order block where the internal liquidity formed and then exhibit a quick reversal, often leaving just a small wick. This movement indicates a liquidity grab, where large players have taken out stops to facilitate their own orders. Lower Timeframe Confirmation After identifying a liquidity grab beyond this internal liquidity level, traders look for an entry. On a lower timeframe, they look for a similar pattern: internal liquidity being run and a subsequent break of structure in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. This involves price retracing back inside the range to fill an imbalance and meet an order block, which provides a precise entry point. Executing the Trade Once these conditions are met, traders typically enter the market. Specifically, they’ll often leave a limit order at an order block to trade in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. They place a stop loss just beyond the liquidity grab, either above the recent high for a short trade or below the recent low for a long trade. Profit targets are often set at key liquidity levels, such as previous highs or lows, where the market is likely to encounter significant activity​. Potential Advantages and Limitations The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a trading strategy with several potential benefits and drawbacks. Advantages - Precision: Allows for precise entry points by identifying false breakouts and liquidity grabs​. - Adaptability: Effective across different timeframes and market conditions, including ranging and trending markets. - Risk Management: Built-in risk management by placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab points. Limitations - Complexity: Requires a deep understanding of market structure, liquidity, and order flow, making it challenging for less experienced traders​. - Market Conditions: Less effective in highly volatile or illiquid markets where false signals are more common. - Time-Consuming: Demands continuous monitoring of multiple timeframes to identify valid setups, which can be time-intensive. The Bottom Line The ICT Turtle Soup pattern offers traders a powerful tool to identify and exploit false breakouts in the market. By understanding its components and applying the strategy effectively, traders can potentially enhance their trading performance. To put this strategy into practice, consider opening an FXOpen account, a reliable broker that provides the necessary tools and resources for trading. FAQs What Is ICT Turtle Soup in Trading? ICT Turtle Soup is a trading pattern that exploits false breakouts. It identifies potential reversals when the price briefly moves beyond a key support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before reversing direction. This strategy aims to take advantage of these liquidity grabs by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction​. How to Identify ICT Turtle Soup Conditions? To identify the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, traders analyse higher timeframe trends to establish market bias. They then look for counter-trend moves and mark internal liquidity areas. The pattern is identified when the price taps these liquidity zones and reverses quickly, often leaving a small wick. This signals a liquidity grab and potential trade setup in the direction of the higher timeframe trend​. How to Use the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern? Using the ICT Turtle Soup pattern involves several steps. First, traders establish a market bias based on higher timeframe analysis. Then, they look for liquidity grabs at marked internal liquidity areas, indicating false breakouts. The next step is to confirm the setup on a lower timeframe by observing a similar liquidity grab and structure break. Lastly, they enter trades in the direction of the higher timeframe trend, placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab and targeting key liquidity levels for profit-taking​. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Profitable SMC Smart MoneyConcept Strategy Explained I will teach you how to trade liquidity grab, a trap, inducement, order block and imbalance. I will share with you my Smart Money Concept strategy for trading forex & gold. We will study a real SMC trading setup that I took on a live stream with my students. Trend Analysis With Structure Mapping The first step in our trading strategy will be the analysis of a market trend on a daily time frame with structure mapping. Analyzing GBPNZD on a daily time frame, we can see that the conditions for a bullish trend are met. Liquidity Zones Analysis The second step will be to find liquidity - supply and demand zones on a daily time frame. According to our rules, here are 3 liquidity zones that I spotted on GBPNZD. We see 2 demand zones and 1 supply zone. Test of Liquidity Zone The third step will be to wait for a test of a liquidity zone. And on that step, we should remember an important rule: We will wait only for a test of a liquidity zone that ALIGN with the market trend. It means that we will wait for a test of a demand zone in a bullish trend. We will wait for a test of a supply zone in a bearish trend. The only demand zones that meets these criteria on GBPNZD is Demand Zone 1. It aligns with a bullish trend. We don't consider Demand Zone 2, because a bearish violation of a Demand Zone 1 will be a Change of Character and a violation of a bearish trend. And here is how a test of a liquidity zone should look like. The price should simply reach that. Liquidity Grab & Imbalance After we identified a test of a significant liquidity zone that aligns with a market trend, we will start analyzing lower time frames. We will look for a liquidity grab, order block and imbalance on 4H and 1H time frames. Here is a liquidity grab that is confirmed by a bullish imbalance. We see a false violation of a liquidity zone, followed by a high momentum bullish candle. It will be our strong bullish signal. Order Block Zone In order to identify the entry point, the next step will be to identify the order block zone. According to our rules, here is the order block zone on a 4H time frame. Entry Level Our entry level will be the level of the upper boundary of the order block zone. Here is such a level on GBPNZD. A buy limit order should be set on that level. Please, note that in that particular case we don't need a 1H time frame analysis, because we have a confirmation signal on a 4H time frame. We will analyse an hourly time frame only when THERE IS NO SIGNAL on a 4H time frame. Stop Loss & Take Profit Safe stop loss should be below the lowest low of a bearish movement. To safely calculate a stop loss in pips for the trade, simply take 0.5 ATR - Average True Range. For Average True Range indicator , take the default settings - 14 length. Here is a safe stop loss level on GBPNZD. ATR is 55 pips. Our stop loss for the trade is 28 pips. Take profit for the trade will be based on the closest 4H liquidity - supply zone. That is the closest supply zone that I spotted on GBPNZD on a 4H time frame. Your target level should be a couple of pips below a supply zone. Look how perfectly the market reached the target! As you can see, that trading strategy is quite complex and combines different important elements. But what I like about this SMC trading strategy is that it truly makes sense. The intentions of Smart Money are crystal clear here and the trade execution rules are straight forward. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5
Vbl crash with Low volume can give reversal When a stock (or any tradable asset) experiences a volume breakout level crash but does so with low trading volume, it can often signal a potential reversal rather than further downside movement. Here’s why: 1. Weak Commitment: A price break below a significant support level on low volume indicates there isn't strong conviction among market participants. In other words, sellers are not aggressively dumping shares, and buyers are likely cautious. This implies the move could lack sustainability. 2. Reversal Potential: Low-volume breakdowns often reflect temporary price movement caused by minor selling pressure, rather than a trend-defining event. If demand re-emerges or larger buyers enter the market at these lower prices, the stock may rebound above the support, triggering a reversal. 3. Significance of Support: Support levels act as zones where buying interest historically outpaces selling pressure. A false breakdown (especially on low volume) below such a level can prompt a "trap," where sellers expecting further decline are forced to cover when prices rebound, amplifying the reversal. Key Considerations: Volume Analysis: Always compare the volume during the support breach to the average volume. A convincing breakdown requires high volume to confirm significant selling pressure. Catalysts: Check for underlying reasons, such as news, sector performance, or earnings reports, which could explain low-volume moves. Price Action Afterward: Watch for a reversal candle pattern (like hammer or engulfing candle) at the breached level to validate reversal potential. To summarize: A crash below support on low volume often indicates an unreliable breakdown and increases the probability of a reversal, especially if significant buyers step in at the lower price zone.
NSE:VBLEducation
by AnkurDasTrader
BTC CYCLE EXPLAINED🔄 THE BITCOIN-ALTCOIN CYCLE EXPLAINED 🔄 In the crypto market, a well-known pattern plays out: When Bitcoin rises 📈, altcoins like Ethereum, Cardano, and Solana tend to struggle 📉. When Bitcoin consolidates or corrects 📉, altcoins often rally 🚀. Why does this happen? 1. 💪 Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin (BTC) leads the market, setting the tone for all crypto movements. 2. 🛡️ Risk-Off Sentiment: During Bitcoin’s bullish runs, traders shift funds into BTC as a safer option. 3. 🔄 Altcoin Rotation: When BTC slows, investors look to altcoins for higher returns, driving their prices up. 🚨 The Big Question: Are we on the verge of another altcoin season? 🤔 📊 Keep watching Bitcoin’s movement—it might be signaling the next big altcoin breakout. 🔥 Stay tuned, the cycle could be heating up! 🚀
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by AlphaBull-Trading
LONG TERM INVESTMENTS FOR BIG COMPANIES !! LONG TERM !TRADING CAN CHANGE YOUR LIFE !! META - APPLE - AMAZON - SPX - SPY - TESLA - NVIDIA - JP MORGAN - RIVIAN - LUCID AVGO - HOOD - ROCKETLAB - AFFIRM - GOOGLE - SOFI - MICROSOFT - META -TSM - CRM - AMD QCOM - BAC - AMEX - DISCOVER FOREX EURUSD - GBPUSD - USDJPY BTC Key Considerations for Trading Forex, BTC, and Stocks Trading in financial markets, whether it's Forex, Bitcoin (BTC), or stocks, involves a unique set of challenges and opportunities. Here are crucial points to keep in mind before diving into these markets: For Forex Trading: Leverage: Forex markets offer high leverage, which can amplify both gains and losses. Understand your risk tolerance and use leverage cautiously. Market Hours: Forex markets are open 24/5, which means opportunities and risks are constant. Consider when you trade in relation to major market sessions (London, New York, Tokyo). Volatility: Currency pairs can be highly volatile, especially around economic news releases or geopolitical events. Stay updated with economic calendars. Interest Rates: Central bank policies can significantly affect currency values. Monitor interest rate decisions and monetary policy statements. Pair Correlation: Understand how currency pairs correlate with each other to manage your portfolio risk better. For Bitcoin (BTC) Trading: High Volatility: Cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, is known for extreme price movements. Prepare for significant price swings. Regulatory Environment: Keep an eye on global crypto regulations which can influence market sentiment and price. Market Sentiment: Bitcoin's price can be heavily influenced by news, tweets from influencers, and market sentiment. Tools like sentiment analysis can be beneficial. Security: Since BTC is digital, security of your wallet and trading platform is paramount. Use hardware wallets for long-term storage. Liquidity: Ensure you're trading on platforms with good liquidity to avoid slippage, especially during volatile times. For Stock Trading: Company Fundamentals: Unlike Forex or BTC, stocks are tied to company performance. Analyze earnings, financial statements, and growth prospects. Dividends: Some stocks offer dividends, providing an income stream which can be reinvested or taken as cash. Market Trends: Stocks are influenced by broader market trends, sector performance, and macroeconomic indicators. Diversification across sectors can mitigate risk. Brokerage and Fees: Stock trading can involve various fees like transaction fees, management fees, etc. Choose your broker wisely based on cost and services. Long vs. Short Term: Decide if you're in for long-term investment or short-term trading. Each strategy requires different approaches to analysis and risk management. General Tips for All Markets: Education: Continuous learning about markets, new tools, and strategies is essential. Risk Management: Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Use stop-loss orders, diversify, and only invest money you don't need for living expenses. Psychology: Trading can be emotionally taxing. Manage stress, fear, and greed to make rational decisions. Technology: Utilize trading platforms, analysis tools, and keep abreast of technological advancements that can impact your trading, like blockchain for crypto. Regulation: Understand the regulatory environment of each market you're trading in to avoid legal pitfalls. Community and Mentorship: Engage with trading communities or find a mentor. Learning from seasoned traders can provide shortcuts and insights. Remember, every market has its nuances, and what works in one might not work in another. Tailor your strategies to each asset class while maintaining a cohesive risk management framework across all your trading activities. Good luck trading!
Education
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
The Next Bubble: Hunting for Sci-Fi Hype in Emerging MarketsExploring potential emerging market bubbles with a focus on futuristic and lesser-known technologies. In the ever-evolving landscape of investment opportunities, savvy investors are always looking for the next big wave. This potential market bubble could transform obscure technologies into astronomical valuations. While traditional industries like banking and oil remain predictable, the most exciting investment frontiers lie in science fiction-adjacent technologies that most people can barely comprehend. Quantum Computing: The Invisible Revolution Quantum computing represents a prime candidate for a potential market bubble. Most people struggle to understand how quantum computers work, which makes them perfect for speculative investment. Companies like IBM, Google, and several stealth startups are developing quantum technologies that seem more like science fiction than reality. The allure is simple: quantum computers promise to solve complex problems that classical computers can't handle. From cryptography to drug discovery, the potential applications are mind-bending. As public understanding remains limited, this knowledge gap creates fertile ground for massive hype and potentially inflated valuations. Synthetic Biology: Programming Life Itself Another frontier that screams "future bubble" is synthetic biology. Imagine companies that can program biological systems, design custom organisms, or create entirely new forms of life. Startups in this space are working on everything from lab-grown meat to engineered microorganisms that can clean up environmental pollution. The complexity of synthetic biology means most investors won't understand the underlying technology, creating perfect conditions for a speculative frenzy. Companies like Ginkgo Bioworks are already pushing the boundaries of what seems possible, blurring the lines between engineering and biology. Space Resource Extraction: The Final Economic Frontier While space tourism gets most of the headlines, the real potential bubble might be in space resource extraction. Companies are developing technologies to mine asteroids, harvest helium-3 from the moon, or extract rare minerals from extraterrestrial sources. These ventures sound like plot points from a science fiction novel but are becoming serious investment considerations. The total addressable market is astronomical, and the technological challenges are so complex that they create a perfect environment for speculative investment. Most people can't comprehend the engineering required, which means wild narratives can drive market sentiment. Neuromorphic Computing: Brains in Silicon Neuromorphic computing represents another potential bubble zone. These are computer systems designed to mimic the human brain's neural structures, promising revolutionary approaches to artificial intelligence and machine learning. Companies developing neuromorphic chips and systems are creating technologies that seem more like sentient machines from a William Gibson novel than traditional computing. The mystique of creating "brain-like" computers that can learn and adapt independently is a powerful narrative for investors seeking the next transformative technology. Key Bubble Indicators When hunting for potential market bubbles in sci-fi-adjacent technologies, look for these red flags: - Technological complexity that defies easy explanation - Massive potential market size with minimal current revenue - High-profile founders with grandiose visions - Media coverage that sounds more like science fiction than economic analysis - Significant venture capital interest despite unclear monetization paths Investor Caution: The Thin Line Between Innovation and Illusion While these technologies represent exciting investment frontiers, they also embody significant risks. Not every sci-fi-like technology will become the next big bubble. Careful research, understanding technological feasibility, and avoiding pure hype is crucial. The most successful investors will be those who can distinguish between genuine technological breakthroughs and elaborate narratives designed to attract speculative capital. Remember: Today's impossible dream could be tomorrow's trillion-dollar market—or next year's cautionary tale. #RGTI: is up +650% in less than 2 months since I published the analysis!
NASDAQ:RGTIEducation
by Moshkelgosha
34
Trading with Multiple Time Frames: A Balanced ApproachWhy Use Multiple Time Frames ? In trading, understanding flow and target areas across different time frames is essential for precision. Each time frame provides a unique insight: Higher Time Frame (HTP) : Establishes the direction and target areas. Focal Time Frame : Serves as your primary or main frame of focus for trading decisions. Lower Time Frame (LTP) : Confirms the HTP’s direction and offers entry/exit points. Examples: If you are position trading (holding longer than 1 month) you focal time frame is the monthly, the weekly is the time frame that offers entry/exits and the Quarterly is the time frame that establishes the direction and target areas. If you are swing trading (holding longer than 1 week) then you focal time frame is the weekly, LTP is the daily for entry/exists and HTP is the monthly. If you trade intraday then HTP is the hourly, focal is 15min and LTP is the 5min. 🔎 Key Principles for Multi-Time Frame Analysis HTP Determines the Flow: Strong resistance or support on the higher time frame drives the market flow. Example: If HTP resistance is strong, the LTP will typically trend downward​ LTP Monitors the Setup: Use lower time frames to observe and confirm HTP predictions. Lower time frame bars should progressively move away from strong HTP levels​ Focus on Nearby and Further Out Areas: Nearby areas provide short-term strength or weakness. If a nearby area breaks, targets shift to further-out energy zones​ 🧩 Example Strategy: Integrating Time Frames Step 1: Identify a strong support/resistance area on the HTP (e.g., Weekly Chart). Step 2: Use the focal time frame (e.g., Daily Chart) to monitor for trend setups. Step 3: Zoom into the LTP (e.g., Hourly Chart) to: Confirm the setup. Look for price reactions and ideal entry points. Step 4: Set targets based on the HTP structure, while managing risk on the LTP. 🎯 Tips for Target Setting Targets are often defined where price terminates energy (e.g., HTP resistance/support levels). Monitor flow: If LTP flow aligns with HTP direction, the trade is on track. If nearby energy breaks, shift your target to the next further-out area​ 🚀 Final Thoughts The HTP shows the big picture; the LTP provides execution clarity. Always let the HTP guide you, and the LTP confirm your trade entries/exits. Remember: “Strength is strength until proven otherwise.” By combining multiple time frames, traders can trade confidently, anticipate targets, and stay in sync with the market flow.
SPREADEX:SPXEducation
by JordanMT
Mastering the German 40 Index: A Comprehensive Trading Strategy 👀👉 In this detailed video, I examine the complexities of trading the German 40 Index (DAX), sharing my personal trading plan and strategies aimed at identifying lucrative trade opportunities. Most importantly, my goal is to provide you with the essential tools to effectively navigate the indices markets. 📈✨ KEY HIGHLIGHTS: ✅ Trading Strategy Overview: I outline a structured approach to planning trades and identifying optimal trading opportunities. ✅ Technical Analysis Techniques: We explore concepts such as Wyckoff Theory and ICT (Inner Circle Trader) principles, emphasizing their application in real-world trading scenarios. ✅ Timeframe Analysis: The video guides you through analyzing higher timeframes to inform lower timeframe entries, ensuring a well-rounded trading strategy. ✅ Entry Points & Risk Management: Learn how to pinpoint entry points, set effective stop-loss orders, and establish profit targets to maximize your trading success. 🎯 ✅ TradingView Features: I highlight essential features of TradingView, showcasing two advanced indicators: the Volume Profile and VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), which are crucial for intraday analysis and understanding market trends. 📊 🔔 Disclaimer: Trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct thorough research and consider your financial situation before engaging in trading activities. Join me on this journey to enhance your trading skills and gain valuable insights into the German 40 Index! Don't forget to comment and if you found the info of value, giving this post a BOOST would be awesome! 🙏
THINKMARKETS:GER40Education
by fxtraderanthony
19
Reading Price Action to Tell a Chart's (Liquidity) StoryUsing Domino's Pizza in this case I want to show you how simple and practical it is to find important levels and to understand why price is doing what it's doing at a certain level. If we can map out where we are going to have to put a fight, and know why we are going to put up a fight (i.e. buyers or sellers, who needs what to win the fight, who is building liquidity and in control on a certain time frame) --> Then there is no reason why we shouldn't be able to identify solid trade opportunities and take them when they're given. If we are wrong on an analysis (i.e. we lose money on the trade), it's either that you're executing trades on a different time frame than your analysis is telling you to or there is something about your analysis that is wrong or not effective enough. DPZ Analysis coming next.. Happy Trading :)
DEducation
by ReigningTrades
How to Build a Forex Trading Indicator How to Build a Forex Trading Indicator In the dynamic world of financial trading, understanding how to build a trading indicator is a valuable skill. This article is designed to navigate you through the essential steps of creating your own trading indicators, offering a blend of technical and practical insights to potentially enhance your market analysis and trading decisions. Understanding Trading Indicators Trading indicators are essential tools in analysing financial markets, offering traders valuable insights into market trends and potential trading opportunities. These mathematical calculations are applied to various market data points like price, volume, and sometimes open interest. In forex trading, indicators play a crucial role in analysing currency pair movements. There are several types of indicators, each serving a specific purpose: - Trend indicators help identify the direction of market movements. - Momentum indicators gauge the speed of these movements. - Volume indicators look at trading volumes to understand market strength. - Volatility indicators provide insight into the stability or instability of currency prices. While there are hundreds of indicators to choose from, some traders choose to develop their own based on their unique market observations. Basic Components of a Trading Indicator The core components of a trading indicator are price, volume, and time. These elements are fundamental in analysing market data and building various tools. - Price: The most critical component, price, is used in almost every trading indicator. It includes open, high, low, and close prices of trading instruments. Price data is essential for constructing trend-following tools like moving averages and oscillators like the Stochastic RSI. - Volume: Volume indicates the number of contracts traded in a given period. It provides insights into the strength or weakness of a market move. Volume-based tools, like the Volume Oscillator or On-Balance Volume (OBV), help traders understand the intensity behind price movements. - Time: Indicators use time periods to analyse market trends. This could be short-term (minutes, hours), medium-term (days, weeks), or long-term (months, years). Time frames influence the sensitivity of an indicator, with shorter periods typically offering more signals. Choosing the Right Data and Tools Selecting appropriate data and tools is a critical step in building effective trading indicators. For data, accuracy and relevance are paramount. Traders typically use historical price data alongside volume data. For tools, traders consider user-friendly platforms that offer robust functionality for creating and testing tools. Platforms like TradingView and MetaTrader offer extensive libraries and community support, facilitating the development of customised indicators. Additionally, programming languages like Python, C# and R, known for their data analysis capabilities, can be powerful tools for creating more complex indicators. FXOpen’s TickTrader, for instance, supports custom C#-based indicators and offers powerful backtesting tools. How to Build a Trading Indicator: A Step-by-Step Walkthrough Developing an indicator involves several key steps, each crucial to ensure the final tool is effective and aligns with your trading strategy. 1. Define the Objective Begin by clearly defining what you want your tool to achieve. Is it to identify trends, pinpoint entry and exit points, or gauge market volatility? Your objective will guide the type of indicator you develop, such as trend-following, momentum, or volatility-based. 2. Select the Formula Choose or develop a mathematical formula that your tool will use. This could be a simple moving average, a complex algorithm involving multiple data points, or something entirely unique. The formula should reflect the market phenomena you aim to capture. 3. Coding the Indicator Translate your formula into code. If using platforms like TradingView, MetaTrader or TickTrader, their scripting languages (Pine Script for TradingView, MQL4/5 for MetaTrader, C# for TickTrader) are designed for this purpose. Ensure the code is clean, well-documented, and easily adjustable. 4. Incorporate Visualisation Decide how the indicator will visually appear on the chart or in a separate window. This could be in the form of lines, bars, dots, or other graphical representations. The visual aspect should make it easy to interpret signals at a glance. 5. Backtesting Before applying your indicator in live trading, it’s crucial to backtest it using historical data. This topic is expanded on below. Testing and Refining Your Indicator Testing and refining your trading indicator is a critical phase in its development, ensuring its potential effectiveness and reliability in real market conditions. - Backtesting: This is the process of testing your indicator against historical data. Backtesting helps evaluate how it would’ve performed in different market scenarios, revealing its strengths and weaknesses. It's essential to test over various time frames and market conditions to ensure robustness. - Analysing Results: Assess the indicator's accuracy, consistency, and responsiveness to market changes. Look for patterns in its performance, such as frequent false signals or lag in response to price movements. - Refinement: Based on the backtesting results, refine your indicator. This could involve tweaking the formula, adjusting parameters like time periods or thresholds, or enhancing the visualisation for clearer signals. - Forward Testing: After adjustments, conduct forward testing in a simulated or live trading environment with real-time data. This helps verify its performance in current market conditions. Remember, no indicator is perfect; the goal is to develop a tool that consistently aids in your trading outcomes. The Bottom Line The journey of building an indicator is both challenging and rewarding. From selecting the right data and tools to carefully coding and testing your creation, each step plays a vital role in crafting an effective aid for trading decisions. For those looking to integrate their custom indicators into a professional trading environment, opening an FXOpen account offers the opportunity to leverage your unique tools in the dynamic TickTrader platform. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Mastering RSI: The Complete and CORRECT Way to Trade ItThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most popular and widely used indicators in trading. Despite its prevalence, many traders misuse it or are unaware of its full potential. RSI isn't just about identifying overbought and oversold conditions; when applied correctly, it becomes a robust tool for trend confirmation, reversals, momentum acceleration, and much more. This guide explores how to unlock the full power of RSI and avoid common pitfalls. What Is RSI? Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price changes over a specified period. It oscillates between 0 and 100, with the following traditional zones: Above 70: Indicates overbought conditions, where the price may reverse or consolidate. Below 30: Indicates oversold conditions, where the price may rebound or reverse upward. However, it’s important to note that RSI above 70 or below 30 can sometimes indicate trend acceleration rather than an immediate reversal—especially in strong trending markets, discussed in #6 The real reversal signal comes after RSI crosses back below 70 (for overbought) or back above 30 (for oversold). Understanding this distinction is critical to using RSI effectively. 1. Overbought and Oversold Conditions The classic use of RSI involves identifying overbought and oversold levels: Overbought: RSI rises above 70 and then drops back below it, signaling potential selling pressure. Oversold: RSI falls below 30 and then moves back above it, indicating potential buying interest. These signals are more effective when combined with tools like support/resistance levels or trendlines. 2. Centerline Crossover The 50-level on RSI is a reliable trend indicator: Above 50: Bullish momentum dominates. Below 50: Bearish momentum dominates. Use these crossovers to confirm trends: Enter long trades when RSI is above 50. Enter short trades when RSI is below 50. 3. Divergences Divergences between RSI and price can signal potential trend reversals: Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows, but RSI forms higher lows. Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs, but RSI forms lower highs. These divergences highlight weakening momentum and often precede reversals. 4. RSI Patterns RSI can form recognizable chart patterns, such as triangles, head-and-shoulders, or double tops/bottoms. These patterns often precede price moves: Triangles: A breakout on RSI often signals a strong price move. Double Tops : A topping pattern on RSI warns of potential price declines. 5. Failure Swings Failure swings occur when RSI enters an extreme zone (above 70 or below 30) but fails to sustain momentum and reverses. This is a strong reversal signal and can precede significant price moves: Bullish Failure Swing: RSI dips below 30. It rises but dips again, staying above 30. RSI breaks its previous high, signaling a bullish reversal. Bearish Failure Swing: RSI rises above 70. It falls but rises again, staying below 70. RSI breaks its previous low, signaling a bearish reversal. How to trade it: For a bullish failure swing, enter long when RSI confirms the higher low and breaks above the previous swing high. For a bearish failure swing, enter short when RSI confirms the lower high and breaks below the previous swing low. 6. Momentum Acceleration Strategy While RSI is traditionally used for spotting overbought and oversold conditions, it can also identify momentum acceleration during strong trends: Above 70: In strong uptrends, when RSI rises above 70 and stays there, it signals upward acceleration, indicating buyers are in control. Below 30: In strong downtrends, when RSI dips below 30 and stays there, it signals downward acceleration, with sellers driving the market lower. How to trade it: In uptrends, treat RSI staying above 70 as a sign of strength and look for pullbacks to enter long positions. In downtrends, use brief rebounds as opportunities to short while RSI remains below 30. 7. Multi-Timeframe Strategy Analyzing RSI across multiple timeframes enhances accuracy: Use the higher timeframe (e.g., daily) to identify the overall trend. Use the lower timeframe (e.g., 1-hour) to time trade entries. Example: If RSI on the daily chart is above 50 (bullish trend), look for hourly RSI dips below 30 to enter long trades. If RSI on the daily chart is below 50 (bearish trend), wait for hourly RSI to reach overbought levels above 70 to short. Tips for Advanced RSI Use: Adjust RSI Settings: Shorter periods (e.g., 7) make RSI more sensitive, while longer periods (e.g., 21) smooth out signals for longer-term trends. Combine RSI with Other Tools: Use RSI alongside moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, or Candlesticks. Risk Management: Always pair RSI signals with a stop-loss strategy to manage risk effectively. PRO TIP: As I like to say "Trade the price, not the indicator." Use RSI as a confirmation tool, not the main signal. For example, a price reversal from resistance or a bullish engulfing candle becomes far more reliable when backed by RSI signals. Conclusion RSI is far more versatile than many traders realize. While it’s traditionally used for identifying overbought and oversold levels, strategies like momentum acceleration and failure swings add depth to its utility. By combining RSI with centerline crossovers, divergences, multi-timeframe analysis, and chart patterns, traders can pinpoint entries, reversals, and momentum shifts with more precision and trade more confidently. Key Takeaways: - RSI staying above 70 or below 30 in trends signals momentum acceleration. - Failure swings offer reliable reversal signals when RSI breaks key levels. - Combining RSI strategies with other tools and proper risk management leads to more confidence
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
23
Cup & Handle Pattern TutorialA cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern that signals a potential upward price movement after a consolidation period. Here's a breakdown of its key components: Cup: The pattern starts with a downward move in price, forming a rounded bottom (the "cup"). The price then rallies back up to the level where it began, creating a U-shape. Handle: After the cup forms, the price pulls back downward in a smaller, rounded formation (the "handle"). This handle is typically a consolidation period before the price resumes its upward trend. Win Rate The cup and handle pattern is known for its high reliability and success rate. Research shows that it has a 95% success rate in bull markets and an average profit of around 54%. However, it's important to follow strict trading rules to achieve these results
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by RonnieV29
4
Inverse Head & Shoulder Tutorial An inverse head and shoulders pattern is the opposite of the head and shoulders pattern and signals a potential bullish reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. Here's a breakdown of its key components: Left Shoulder: The price falls to a trough and then rises back to a resistance level. Head: The price falls again to a lower trough and then rises back to the same resistance level. Right Shoulder: The price falls again but only to the level of the first trough, then rises once more. The pattern gets its name because it resembles an upside-down head with shoulders on either side. The neckline is the resistance level connecting the highest points of each peak. Types of Inverse Head and Shoulders Patterns Inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom: This pattern signals a potential reversal from a bearish trend to a bullish trend. How to Trade It Breakout Confirmation: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks above the neckline in an inverse head and shoulders bottom. Entry Point: Traders often enter a long position when the neckline is broken in an inverse head and shoulders bottom.
NYSE:XYZEducation
by RonnieV29
8
Forecasting Swing Levels in a Trend Using Elliot WaveHere's a simple template that can help you to draw good fib extensions off different useful swings when the is a possible Elliot wave pattern. This should help to flag up the high probability areas in a nice expression of the Elliot pattern and also give you warning levels to watch along the way in case the nice simple pattern fails. We're going to focus on two legs. There's a few more you can draw fibs from and have useful repeating ratios but to keep it simple I'm just going to focus on the two high value ones here. Working left to right on the chart notes: When we know waves 4-5 we can use it for wave C An extension fib drawn from low to high of the 4-5 swing (you'd know this was in when wave A breaks the trend) is very useful for determining the levels the market is likely to make a low and also the level which a capitulation event is likely. The 1.61 extension is the important level here. It can hold in a simple wave 4 spike out correction. If it breaks, usually price capitulates to at least the 2.20. More commonly the 2.61 in the event we're making a low (You'll usually find this is a 76 retracement of 1-5 also). In the first instance of a 4-5 fib, I've shown a 1.61 break. Bit of a dummy rally around the 1.61 (very common) and then the capitulation to the lower fibs. Which is more common in the first leg of a trend. Deep retracements are common in trend reversals. When we know 1-2 we can use it for levels for wave 3 When we know where waves 1-2 should be in our count we can draw an extension fib high to low on this. We can define waves 1-2 as being in by the breaking of the first wave 5 high. It's also possible to pre-emptively draw these fibs when you think we're at the end of wave C. Obviously these need checked and adjusted if things change. There are four main fib levels we use in this swing. 1.27, 1.61, 2.20 and 2.61. 1.27 and 1.61 levels here are expected to have pullbacks or soft stalls but ultimately break. They're levels to be careful. If it will fail these are hot spots for it, but once we have some reaction around 1.27 - 1.61 and a valid breakout we trend consistently to 2.20. That usually completes wave 3 of the trend. From 2.20 we'll get chop and some false reversals. This is wave 4. It'll go on for a while and be full of false breakouts. Every time something looks like it's happening, it's not. Eventually there's a false bear breakout and then a big spike to the 2.61. This completes waves 4-5. Now we're back to where we started. Once we know waves 4-5, these help with levels for C. Since we now are inside a developing trend rather than in the first leg of it, the retracement is likely to be shallower. Stopping a little past the 1.61. With the trading under there mainly being a wick. There's a big bounce from the 1.61. A pullback (usually to the 1.27) and then there's a break of the high. Once we have seen those legs, then we have our new 1-2 legs and we can use these to forecast where we expect the nice trending action of C. The soft resistance levels along the way that might turn the market if the Elliot thesis is incorrect and the target levels we know to look for the bigger crash correction. For so long as the Elliot cycle plays this, these things just keep rolling into each other and you can make pretty good forecasts of the trend levels.
NYSE:EDUEducation
by holeyprofit
Beta is not right indicator to pick high volatile stocksI have done extensive analysis on lot of stocks to see, which group of stocks gives more returns compared to market, index or any other household branded companies. Before i get into alternative to beta, here i will try to get into the details of beta calculation to understand ourselves why beta may not represent true nature or momentum of a stock. How is beta calculated? Beta is multiplication of two numbers, Correlation and volatility. If any one number out of these two are less, the result will be a low beta number. Correlation: If a stock moves in same +ve or -ve direction as that of market, it will have good correlation. On a given window of 48 prior days from now, how many days(or whatever timeframe) the stock matches up/down movement with respect to market, will give us correlation number. This value will be in the range +1 to -1. If price moves as per market direction, it will be 0 to +1. If price moves in opposite direction of market( that is stock goes up when market goes down or stock goes down when market goes up), the correlation will be 0 to -1. Usually in practice, all stocks are mostly positively correlate with market, so they end up having values between 0 and +1. This means, stocks with close to +1 correlation will have high beta and low correlation( say 0.5) will result in low beta. So correlation will play big role in beta value of a stock. However there will be few stocks, which doesn't move exactly as that of market but still are high volatile. I will explain volatility in short. If one is filtering stocks based on beta, they will loose out gains on these high volatile stocks. Instead of measuring an expected amount of return on a stock with respect to beta, we could simply use volatility to monitor a list of high volatile stocks to reap good returns over time. Volatility: If market moves +0.5%, say stock x moves 1%, conversely if market moves -0.5%, stock x moves -1%, it is safe to say stock x is high volatile. In statistics/math terms, how much the stock is deviating from its mean compared to market, gives a relative value of volatility with respect to market. Standard deviation of stock versus market gives the volatility of the stock. Higher the volatility, higher the gains or losses on the stock. Expecting returns on a stock based on the standard deviation is difficult. Instead, I will simply use a different calculation(explained below), that helps you easily see the expected returns in layman terms. Say, if you buy a stock at the lowest price on a specific month, and sell at highest price in that same month, the profit can be measured in percentage wise. That same number averaged over 12 months gives a rough idea of how much profit one can expect if timed properly every month. Selecting and timing on these high percentage profit returning stocks will amplify the returns over long time, compared to investing or trading in the low volatile stocks. The indicator(free) of mine sangana beta table will list the stocks sector wise, how much percentage a stock moves low to high in a month. It works for S&P500 and Nifty 500 stocks. Happy trading !!!
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by JKReddyLin
A Guide for Beginner Traders: Navigating the Markets Safely.Welcome to the world of trading! Whether you're just starting out or looking to improve your skills, this guide is for you. Trading can be exciting and rewarding, but it's crucial to approach it with the right knowledge and mindset. Let's dive into the essentials you need to know to trade safely and effectively. Understanding the Basics It’s really concerning to see how many beginner traders, or even people with no prior knowledge, are getting misled by false signals and scams in various groups like Telegram and Discord. Following bad advice can lead to significant financial losses, false confidence, and emotional stress. Learning the fundamentals is essential to navigate the markets independently and avoid these pitfalls. Why Understanding the Basics Matters Empowerment: Learning to use indicators empowers you to make your own trading decisions. Instead of relying on others for buy or sell signals, you gain the ability to analyse market conditions and determine the best course of action. Risk Management: Proper knowledge helps you manage risks better. You'll learn to spot potential market reversals and adjust your positions to protect your capital. Market Insights: Indicators offer valuable insights into market trends, momentum, volatility, and volume. This information helps you identify trading opportunities, spot trends early, and avoid potential pitfalls. Confidence Building: Understanding how trading works boosts your confidence. You'll be less likely to make impulsive trades based on emotions or unverified advice. Key Concepts and Tools to Learn Let's break down some essential concepts and tools to get you started: Indicators and Technical Analysis: Moving Averages (MA): These smooth out price data to help identify trends. The Simple Moving Average (SMA) calculates the average price over a specific period, while the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) gives more weight to recent prices. Relative Strength Index (RSI): This momentum oscillator measures the speed and change of price movements. An RSI above 70 indicates overbought conditions, while an RSI below 30 indicates oversold conditions. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): This indicator shows the relationship between two EMAs. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it suggests a bullish trend; crossing below indicates a bearish trend. Bollinger Bands: These measure market volatility and provide a range within which the price is expected to move. The bands expand and contract based on market conditions. Volume Indicators: Tools like On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Volume Moving Average (VMA) help assess the strength of a price move. Developing a Trading Strategy: Research and Education: Continuously educate yourself about the market. Read articles, watch webinars, and join trading communities. Back testing: Before applying your strategy in real-time trading, test it using historical data. This helps you refine your approach and gain confidence in your trading plan. Risk Management: Determine how much you're willing to risk on each trade and stick to it. Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Avoiding Common Pitfalls: Overtrading: Trading too frequently can lead to unnecessary losses. Focus on quality over quantity. Following Unverified Signals: Relying on signals from unverified sources can be risky. Learn to analyse the market yourself. Emotional Trading: Trading based on emotions rather than analysis can lead to poor decisions. Stay disciplined and stick to your strategy. Conclusion Trading can be a rewarding journey, but it's essential to approach it with the right knowledge and mindset. By understanding the basics, developing a solid strategy, and avoiding common pitfalls, you'll be better equipped to navigate the markets. Remember, continuous learning and disciplined application of knowledge are key to long-term success. Happy Trading! 🚀.
Education
by OakleyJM