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Profitable Multiple Time Frames Smart Money Strategy Revealed In this post, I will share with you a very accurate SMC strategy that combines top-down analysis, liquidity, imbalance, order block and inducement. Step 1 - Identify liquidity zones on a daily Liquidity zones are the areas on a price chart, where big players are placing their orders. From such areas, significant bullish and bearish movements initiate. Liquidity zones that are above the current price will be the supply zones, while the liquidity zones that are below the current price will be the demand zones. We will look for shorting opportunities from supply areas and for buying opportunities from demand zones. Here are the liquidity zones that I identified on EURJPY. Step 2 - Wait for a test of one of the liquidity zones Let the market test the liquidity zone. For buying, the price should reach a lower boundary of a demand zone. For shorting, the price should test an upper boundary of a supply zone. I underlined the exact levels that the price should test on EURJPY. Here is the test of the lower boundary of the demand zone. Step 3 - Look for inducement on an hourly time frame With the inducement, smart money make the market participants think that the liquidity zone that the price is testing doesn't hold anymore. When the price tests a supply area, an hourly candle close above its upper boundary will be a bullish inducement. With that, the smart money incentivize buying orders. When the price tests a demand area, an hourly candle close below its lower boundary will be a bearish inducement. With that, the smart money incentivize selling orders. The price closed below a lower boundary of a demand zone on EURJPY on 1H time frame. Step 4 - Look for imbalance on an hourly time frame After a violation of a supply area on an hourly time frame, look for a bearish imbalance. Bearish imbalance is a strong bearish candle with wide range and big body. With that candle, the market should return within a supply zone and closed within or below that. After a violation of a demand area on an hourly time frame, look for a bullish imbalance. Bullish imbalance is a strong bullish candle with wide range and big body. With that candle, the market should return within a demand zone and closed within or above that. Here is the example of a bullish imbalance on EURJPY. After a bearish inducement, the price formed a high momentum bullish candle and closed within the demand zone. The imbalance signify that a liquidity zone violation was a trap . With that, smart money simply was trying to grab the liquidity. That will be a signal for you to open an order. Step 5 - Look for an order block After the formation of the imbalance, the market becomes locally week and quite often corrects to an order block. Order block will be the closest hourly liquidity zone. After a formation of a bearish imbalance, look for a supply zone on an hourly time frame. That will be your perfect zone to sell. After a formation of a bullish imbalance, look for a demand zone on an hourly. That will be your area to buy from. Here is the order block on EURJPY. Step 6 - Set a limit order Set a sell limit order within a supply area after a formation of bearish imbalance on an hourly time frame. Set a buy limit order within a demand area after a formation of a bullish imbalance on an hourly. Here is your buy entry level on EURJPY. Step 7 - Select the target If you sell, your target should be the closest daily structure support: horizontal or vertical one. If you buy, your target should be the closest daily structure resistance: horizontal or vertical one. In our example, our closest structure resistance if a falling trend line. Step 8 - Set stop loss If you sell, stop loss will lie above a bullish inducement. If you buy, stop loss will lie below a bearish inducement. Here is a perfect point for a stop loss for a long trade on EURJPY. Step 9 - Trade Let the price trigger your entry, and then be prepared to wait. It took many days for EURJPY to reach the target. Trading Tips: 1. Make sure that you have a positive reward/ratio. It should be at least 1.2 2. Risk no more that 1% of your trading account per trade Being applied properly, that strategy shows 70%+ accuracy. Try it by yourself and let me know your results. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Brilliant Basics - Part 4: Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWelcome to the fourth instalment of our Brilliant Basics series, where we help you achieve consistency and discipline in foundational concepts that create a platform for long-term success. Today, we’re diving into the world of Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTFA) . We will explore how to use different timeframes effectively and consistently to gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics can improve your trading decisions. The Power of Multi-Timeframe Analysis Multi-Timeframe Analysis is the practice of examining the same market on multiple timeframes to get a more comprehensive view of its behaviour. This technique has no time lag and ultimately allows traders to refine their entry and exit points. Why Multi-Timeframe Analysis Matters: • Context and Clarity: By looking at multiple timeframes, traders can see the bigger picture and understand the broader market trend. This context is crucial for trade selection and management. • Precision: Lower timeframes provide detailed price action information, which helps in timing entries and exits more precisely. • Confirmation: Using multiple timeframes helps to confirm signals, reducing the risk of false breakouts or reversals. How to Perform Multi-Timeframe Analysis 1. Select Your Timeframes: Choose three different timeframes: a higher timeframe for context, an intermediate timeframe for your core analysis, and a lower timeframe for precise entries and exits. The timeframes you select will depend on your trading style. For example, you might use the following: • Higher Timeframe: Weekly chart for the long-term trend (top right) • Intermediate Timeframe: Daily chart for the medium-term trend (left) • Lower Timeframe: Hourly for short-term price action (bottom right) Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Analyse the Higher Timeframe: Start with the higher timeframe to understand the bigger picture market structure. Is the market trending, range bound or in a random whipsaw structure? 3. Refine with the Intermediate Timeframe: The intermediate timeframe is your core analysis timeframe. It should provide key levels of support and resistance and more detail on the current trend and momentum in the market. Trend continuation traders can look for pullbacks, consolidations, and continuation patterns that align with the higher timeframe. While reversal traders can look for reversal patterns that align with key levels on the higher timeframe. 4. Pinpoint Entries and Exits on the Lower Timeframe: Finally, use the lower timeframe to time your trades with precision. Look for reversal patterns, breakouts, or pullbacks that align with the higher and intermediate timeframe analysis. Examples Example 1: FTSE 100 MTFA Weekly candle chart (top right): The FTSE is trending higher having broken through key resistance and prices are pulling back from trend highs. Daily candle chart (left): The FTSE’s pullback from trend highs has formed a descending retracement line. It has also formed a clear swing low. Hourly candle chart (bottom left): Whilst the hourly candle chart has a bearish bias, given the bullish context of the higher timeframes, swing traders could potentially look to buy bullish reversal patterns at swing support or wait for the market to break above the descending retracement line. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Example 2: EUR/GBP MTFA Weekly candle chart (top right): EUR/GBP’s dominant structure on the weekly timeframe is rangebound. However, we can see that the market has just broken a level of support. Daily candle chart (left): The daily timeframe highlights the significance of the break below support – the market gapped lower and a descending trendline has formed. Hourly candle chart (bottom left): Momentum on the daily and hourly timeframes are aligned, and this momentum is not contradicted by the weekly candle chat. In this scenario, traders could look to sell into pullbacks on the hourly candle chart. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Example 3: Gold MTFA Weekly candle chart (top right): Gold’s weekly candle chart displays a well-established uptrend. Daily candle chart (left): The daily timeframe shows that the market has entered a period of sideways consolidation – marking clear support and resistance. Hourly candle chart (bottom left): While the hourly timeframe shows negative momentum, the established uptrend on the weekly and daily timeframes provides the context to look for bullish reversal patterns at support. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Practical Applications of Multi-Timeframe Analysis Aligning Momentum: MTFA helps you to understand the alignment of momentum across multiple timeframes. This alignment increases the probability of success. Conversely, mis-alignment of momentum could be a red flag which would help you to avoid taking a trade. Enhancing Risk Management: By understanding the broader market context, you can set more effective stop-loss levels and profit targets. This approach minimises the risk of being stopped out by market noise on the lower timeframes. Improving Trade Timing: MTFA allows you to enter and exit trades at optimal points. For example, entering a trade after a pullback on the daily chart that aligns with a breakout on the hourly chart can improve your risk-reward ratio. Summary Multi-Timeframe Analysis is a powerful technique that provides a comprehensive view of the market. By examining an asset across different timeframes, traders can gain deeper insights, confirm signals, and make more informed trading decisions. In our final instalment, Part 5, we will outline a Pre-Trade Checklist that can be applied to any trading strategy on any timeframe. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by Capitalcom
Cancellation of “Head-and-Shoulders” Pattern. Bears trapThe "Head-and-Shoulders" (H&S) pattern is considered a powerful trend reversal indicator. However, it can also become very costly for new traders. Yesterday, the S&P provided a great example of H&S cancellation. Traders who entered short on the break-out of the shoulders line (and Monday's low) incurred losses after the price returned to the previous day's range and rallied all the way up. Such scenarios happen more often than you might think. To avoid being caught in such traps, it is important to consider two things: 1. Higher Level Context : In this example, the H&S pattern formed on the hourly time frame. But if we zoom out, we'll see that on the weekly chart, the price is in a strong uptrend, currently making new historical highs. This is a very bullish context, with buyers having full control over the price. 2. Price Behavior on the Break-out : Upon confirmation of a reversal pattern, you should expect sellers to jump in and drive the price down as fast as possible. It is "abnormal" to see the price returning to the previous range and gaining acceptance. This is a trigger that something is not right. Some people will add volume analysis on the break-out, but I’m personally not a fan of it, especially for SPY.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
Finding a section to start tradingHello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- The BW indicator included in the TS - BW indicator is an indicator expressed by synthesizing the MACD, StochRSI, CCI, PVT, and superTrend indicators. When the BW indicator - records a high point, it is time to sell, and - When it records a low point, it is time to buy. The BW indicator in the price candle section is the same as the BW indicator included in the TS - BW indicator, but it is an indicator that is expressed in the price candle when a horizontal line is formed at the highest or lowest point. If you look at the position of the BW indicator expressed in the price candle section, you can know when to proceed with a trade. I think you can be confident about starting a trade by referring to the status of the MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D, 1W, 1M charts) indicator that can confirm the trend. If you add the HA-Low, HA-High indicators here, you can create a more detailed trading strategy. Have a good time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will start when it rises above 29K. The section that is expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting) 4th: 13401.28 151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future. We need to check if these points can be broken upward. We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section. #BTCUSD 1M If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
Education
by readCrypto
1
How Do Dovish and Hawkish Monetary Policies Affect Markets?How Do Dovish and Hawkish Monetary Policies Affect Markets? In the intricate dance of global finance, central banks play a leading role, their policies echoing through markets and economies. The terms "dovish" and "hawkish" encapsulate their strategies towards interest rates and money supply, each with profound implications for currency values and investor strategies. This FXOpen article explores how these stances offer valuable insights for traders in understanding the forex market’s movements and the broader economic landscape. Understanding Dovish vs Hawkish In the world of economics, central banks use monetary policy to navigate between stimulating growth and controlling inflation. This delicate balance is often characterised by two primary stances: dovish and hawkish. Understanding these policies is crucial for traders, as they significantly influence domestic economic conditions and the forex market. Dovish Meaning Central banks take a dovish monetary policy stance, aiming to stimulate the domestic economy. By lowering interest rates or keeping them low, central banks make borrowing cheaper, encouraging both businesses and consumers to take loans, invest, and spend. This increase in spending can lead to economic growth, but there's a catch: if the money supply increases too rapidly, it might outpace the economy's growth potential, leading to inflation. In terms of unemployment, dovish policies can lead to job creation as businesses expand. Credit conditions become more lenient, fostering an environment ripe for economic activity. Hawkish Meaning Conversely, a hawkish stance aims to temper inflation and stabilise the economy when it shows signs of overheating. By raising interest rates, central banks make borrowing more expensive, which can cool down excessive spending and investment. This tightening of credit conditions is intended to prevent inflation from rising too high, too quickly. While higher interest rates can attract foreign investment due to the promise of higher returns, leading to an appreciation of the domestic currency in the forex market, they can also dampen economic growth and increase unemployment rates as financing becomes costlier for businesses. Likewise, a stronger currency can affect exports by making them more expensive for foreign buyers, which is a critical consideration for traders analysing trade-heavy economies. Capital Flows and the Forex Market The interplay between these monetary policies and capital flows is a critical aspect for forex traders. All else being equal, dovish policies, while boosting local economies, can lead to capital outflows as investors search for higher yields, causing the domestic currency to depreciate against its counterparts. However, a dovish policy can increase the attractiveness of investing in local stock markets due to cheaper borrowing costs. On the other hand, hawkish policies attract foreign capital, appreciating the domestic currency, but potentially at the cost of slowing domestic economic growth. Hawks and Doves: The Balance The interplay between hawks and doves in central banking shapes the forex markets in profound ways. Traders meticulously analyse statements and policy directions from central banks and policymakers to gauge future price movements, which can be complemented by a wealth of trading tools in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. A shift from a dovish to a hawkish stance (or vice versa) can lead to swift and significant currency movements as markets reposition based on the anticipated impact on interest rates and economic growth. For instance, even the mere expectation of a shift towards a more hawkish policy can strengthen a country’s currency as traders anticipate higher future returns. Monetary Policy : Dovish Effect Low interest rates are expected to boost economic growth: - Low rates encourage consumers and businesses to borrow (credits/loans) - Cheap borrowing encourages consumers and businesses to invest and spend more - Expanded businesses lead to rising employment Risks: - High inflation if the money supply increases too rapidly - Capital outflow and weak domestic currency due to lower returns for investors Monetary Policy : Hawkish Effect High interest rates are used to control an overheating economy: - High interest rates lead to a reduction in borrowing - Expensive borrowing leads to lower spending and investment, which causes lower prices and potentially lower inflation - Higher rates lead to larger foreign investments due to higher returns, thus, stronger domestic currency Risks: - Slowing domestic economic growth due to reduced spending and investment - Higher unemployment due to expensive borrowing for businesses and, therefore, inability to expand Case Studies: USD/JPY Post-Pandemic The USD/JPY currency pair witnessed a remarkable, bullish run post-COVID-19 pandemic, significantly influenced by diverging inflationary trends and monetary policy responses in the United States and Japan. This period underscored the profound impact of interest rate differentials on forex markets. In the United States, a rapid acceleration of inflation was observed, with core inflation YoY increasing from 1.6% in March 2021 to an alarming 6.5% by March 2022. This inflationary surge compelled the Federal Reserve to initiate a series of aggressive rate hikes beginning in March 2022, escalating the benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%. By July 2023, the US interest rate had surged to 5.5%, a clear indication of the Fed's commitment to quelling inflationary pressures. Japan's economic scenario depicted a starkly different picture. The same inflation metric in Japan rose modestly from -0.3% to 0.8% over the same timeframe. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continued its long-standing policy of negative interest rates, aiming to stimulate economic growth and combat deflationary risks. This stark contrast in monetary policy trajectories between the two economies created a significant interest rate differential, fueling a strong bullish momentum in the USD/JPY pair. From March 1st 2022, when the Fed commenced its hiking campaign, the USD/JPY rose sharply from an opening of 115.084 to a peak of 151.943 in October 2022. This movement was primarily driven by the growing attractiveness of the dollar as US interest rates rose, offering higher returns to investors compared to the yen, which remained anchored by Japan's negative interest rate policy. How to Trade Based on Monetary Policy Using monetary policy to formulate trading ideas involves gauging central banks’ actions and their implications for the wider currency market. Traders who grasp the nuances of these policies can position themselves to take advantage of expected movements in the forex market. Here’s a focused approach to trading based on monetary policy decisions: 1. Following Central Bank Announcements and Meetings Central banks like the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan regularly hold meetings to discuss monetary policy. The outcomes of these meetings, including interest rate decisions and policy statements, can significantly affect currency markets as they rapidly incorporate this new information. Traders mark these events on their calendars and prepare for increased volatility during and after announcements. 2. Analysing Policy Statements for Future Directions Central bank policy statements provide insights into the bank's view of the economy and its future policy direction. Phrases indicating concerns about inflation might suggest a hawkish stance, potentially leading to rate hikes. Conversely, mentions of economic risks could indicate a dovish tilt, with possible rate cuts. Understanding these subtleties can give traders clues about future currency movements. 3. Monitoring Economic Indicators Economic indicators like inflation rates, employment data, and GDP growth are closely watched by central banks and can influence their monetary policy decisions. Traders analyse these indicators to anticipate central banks' actions. For example, rising inflation above the central bank target might prompt a central bank to adopt a hawkish stance, potentially strengthening the currency. 4. Understanding Interest Rate Differentials Interest rate differentials between countries are a fundamental driver of currency movements. Currencies from countries with higher interest rates often attract more investment, leading to appreciation. Traders can use this knowledge to trade currency pairs, expecting appreciation in currencies from countries likely to raise rates and maintain higher rates compared to their trading partners. 5. Considering the Global Economic Context Monetary policy does not operate in a vacuum. Global economic conditions, geopolitical events, and market sentiment can all influence the effectiveness and impact of central bank actions. Traders must consider these factors, understanding that unexpected global events can quickly alter the expected effects of monetary policy decisions. Caveats to Hawkish and Dovish Monetary Policy While dovish and hawkish monetary policies wield significant influence over economic landscapes and forex markets, they come with nuances that traders and policymakers must navigate. A dovish stance, though effective for stimulating economic growth, can lead to unintended consequences like asset bubbles due to prolonged low interest rates, making economies vulnerable to inflation spikes. If not carefully managed, this environment might erode purchasing power and destabilise financial markets. Conversely, hawkish policies, designed to curb inflation by raising interest rates, might slow economic growth excessively or lead to higher unemployment rates. Such outcomes can strain consumer spending and investment, potentially tipping an economy into recession if overapplied. Moreover, the global interconnectedness of markets means that a policy shift in a major economy can have ripple effects, impacting emerging market currencies and potentially leading to capital flight from countries with lower interest rates. Traders must consider these broader implications, as central banks' shifts between dovish and hawkish stances can lead to volatility and unpredictability in currency values. The Bottom Line The interplay between dovish and hawkish monetary policies not only shapes the global economic narrative but also creates pivotal moments for forex traders. By meticulously analysing these stances, traders can navigate the forex market with greater acumen, anticipating shifts that could affect currency values. For those looking to leverage these insights into actionable strategies, opening an FXOpen account offers a gateway to applying this knowledge in the real-world arena of forex trading. FAQs What Is Dovish vs Hawkish? Dovish and hawkish are terms used to describe the monetary policy stance of central banks. A dovish policy focuses on stimulating economic growth by lowering interest rates and increasing the money supply, potentially leading to a weaker currency. Conversely, a hawkish policy aims to control inflation by raising interest rates and reducing the money supply, typically resulting in a stronger currency. These stances significantly influence currency values, affecting forex trading strategies. What Does Hawkish and Dovish Mean in the Forex Market? In the forex market, hawkish and dovish policies influence currency pairs' direction. A central bank's hawkish stance can lead to currency appreciation due to higher interest rates attracting foreign capital. On the other hand, a dovish stance might cause currency depreciation as lower interest rates decrease the currency's yield, prompting investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. Traders closely monitor these policy shifts to anticipate market movements. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
5
How to read mean returns (Expand the indicator)Mean returns is a trend detection and overextension indicator. It oscillates around the value of 0. The mean return line in reality is the orange one as well as the blue one. The difference is in the number of data points into the past that they consider. Since the value of those lines is the expected value of the returns in period t, then if it's over 0 the expectation is that returns will be positive, as previously the price has been trending higher. The opposite being true as well. Meanwhile, the red and green line represent the expected upwards and expected downwards returns. That means you only take the expected value for the days in which the return was positive or negative accordingly. Therefore, if the mean returns are over the expected upwards returns the price is likely to be overextended, and vice versa. Other adjustments were made to consider the current candle. This code will remain private, as it took a lot of effort to invent. I hope you are able to understand the math. If you can't, I hope this at least allowed you to read the meaning of the indicator through this.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by DarkMessiah777
1
Watch This 3 Step System And Technical AnalysisInside this video i dive deep into technical analysis mixing advanced lessons and beginner lessons to give you a taste of advanced technical analysis and beginner-level analysis You will need to buckle up and sit tight as we ride through the forex market, banking market, and stock market This video is packed with tones of value and it's a thank you for rocketing this content to learn more rocket boost this content Disclaimer: Trading is risky you will lose money whether you like it or not please learn risk management
NYSE:JPMEducation
by lubosi
Pulse of an Asset ala Fibonacci: ETH at a key Impulse Redux"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water. "Impulse Redux" is returning of wave to the original source of energy. "Impulse Core" is the zone of maximum energy, in the Golden Pocket. Are the sellers still there? Enough to absorb the buying power? Reaction at Impulse is worth observing closely to gauge energy. Rejection is expected on at least first approach if not several. Part of my ongoing series to collect examples of my Methodology: (click links below) Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place <= Current Example Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only . . Ordered Chaos every Wave is born from Impulse, like a Pebble into Water. every Pebble bears its own Ripples, gilded of Ratio Golden. every Ripple behaves as its forerunner, setting the Pulse. each line Gains its Gravity. each line Tried and Tested. each line Poised to Reflect. every Asset Class behaves this way. every Time Frame displays its ripples. every Brain Chord rings these rhythms. He who Understands will be Humble. He who Grasps will observe the Order. He who Ignores will behold only Chaos. Ordered Chaos . . . want to Learn a little More? can you Spend a few Moments? click the Links under Related.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by EuroMotif
4
Traders, managers and loss aversion in investment banking█  Traders, managers and loss aversion in investment banking In investment banking institutions, traders and managers exert immense pressure to maximize gains while minimizing losses. In fact, loss aversion, the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains, is what influences most of their decision-making. If not managed effectively, this bias can lead to suboptimal trading decisions and significantly impact the overall performance of financial institutions. This comprehensive field study by Willmana et al., "Traders, Managers, and Loss Aversion in Investment Banking," examines how loss aversion manifests among traders and managers in four major investment banks. The study integrates insights from agency theory and prospect theory to explore the risk management strategies employed by both groups. █  Background and Theory Two critical theories, agency theory, and prospect theory, help explain how individuals within these institutions make decisions. Agency Theory: This theory deals with the relationship between principals (e.g., shareholders) and agents (e.g., managers and traders). It posits that agents employed to make decisions on behalf of principals may not always act in the principal's best interests due to differing goals and risk appetites. For instance, if you're a trader, you might engage in riskier behavior to maximize your bonuses. At the same time, your managers might prioritize stability and risk mitigation to protect their positions. Prospect Theory: Introduced by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, prospect theory describes how people choose between probabilistic alternatives that involve risk. It highlights two main biases: loss aversion and the framing effect. Loss aversion is the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains, and the framing effect shows that the way a problem or decision is presented can significantly impact choices. █  Explanation of Risk Aversion and Loss Aversion Risk Aversion: It is the preference for certainty over uncertainty. In the context of trading, risk-averse individuals prefer investments with lower risk and potentially lower returns over those with higher risk and higher potential returns. Loss Aversion: A central component of prospect theory, loss aversion suggests that the pain of losing is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining. This bias can lead traders to hold onto losing positions longer than is rational and to sell winning positions too quickly, seeking to lock in gains and avoid realizing losses. █  Methodology The study by Willmana et al. utilizes a qualitative research approach, focusing on detailed interviews to gather insights into the behaviors and attitudes of traders and managers in investment banking. The researchers interviewed 118 traders and managers across four leading investment banks. These interviews included questions about motivations, emotions, trading strategies, organizational culture, and experiences with gains and losses. Additionally, 10 senior managers participated in the management interview section, providing a broader perspective on organizational practices and controls. █  Key Findings Managers are primarily concerned with mitigating losses rather than maximizing gains. Position holders tend to intervene more aggressively when traders experience losses, emphasizing the need to cut losing positions quickly to prevent further deterioration. The study found that managers used veto power primarily to reduce risk. As one manager said, "My veto works only one way—to reduce risk." Managers frequently highlighted the importance of controlling downside risk. One manager noted, "My role as a manager is to cover the downside rather than the upside. I try to enforce the discipline of cutting losses rather than pushing them to add to positions." ⚪ Differences in Risk Management Strategies The study revealed traders often operate with significant autonomy and tend to take on more risk, particularly in pursuing higher bonuses. Conversely, managers focus on ensuring that risk levels remain within acceptable limits, stepping in mainly to curtail losses. The research showed that managers are generally ex-traders who understand the technical complexities of trading. However, their managerial role shifts their focus towards risk containment. One trader mentioned, "95% of the time, managers are traders who have been in the business a long time and they have no real management skills." Traders have a strong ethos of autonomy, with managers intervening only when necessary. A manager noted, "I consider I have a veto on any positions my traders take, even when they are within their limits. But, to give you an idea, I think last year I used it once, the year before twice, and this year, not at all." ⚪ Impact of Bonus Structures and Incentive Systems The study found that these systems often drive traders to take on higher risks to achieve performance targets, especially as the year-end approaches. Over half of the traders in the sample earned over £300,000 per annum, with bonuses constituting a significant portion of their total compensation. The direction of risk-bearing behavior varied among traders toward the end of the compensation year. Some traders became risk-averse to protect their gains, while others increased their risk tolerance. One trader stated, "Risk tolerance becomes infinite at the end of the year because we don't have any personal exposure to our results in the last couple of months; we can almost become less discriminating in the trades we put on." █ Practical Implications for Retail Traders Retail traders can draw several practical implications from the findings of this study: ⚪ Awareness of Loss Aversion: Retail traders should recognize their own tendencies towards loss aversion and implement strategies to manage this bias. This might include setting predefined stop-loss limits and adhering to them strictly to avoid letting losses run. ⚪ Structured Risk Management: Just as investment bank managers focus on controlling downside risk, retail traders should establish clear risk management frameworks. This includes setting risk limits for each trade and not deviating from these limits based on emotional responses. ⚪ Balanced Focus on Gains and Losses: While avoiding losses is crucial, retail traders should also develop strategies to maximize gains. This involves identifying opportunities for larger positions when the probability of success is high, without succumbing to undue caution after achieving small gains. ⚪ Bonus and Reward Systems: Retail traders should design their own reward systems to align with their trading goals. For instance, setting incremental performance targets and rewarding themselves upon achieving these can help maintain motivation and discipline. ⚪ Continuous Learning and Adaptation: Managers in investment banks often act as mentors, providing guidance based on their experience. Retail traders should seek out mentorship or peer support to learn from more experienced traders. Participating in trading communities and continuous education can help improve trading performance over time. █ Applying Knowledge from the Study Retail traders can apply the knowledge derived from this study in several ways: ⚪ Develop a Trading Plan: Create a comprehensive trading plan that includes risk management rules, entry and exit strategies, and guidelines for handling losses. Regularly review and update this plan based on trading performance and market conditions. ⚪ Implement Risk Controls: Use tools such as stop-loss orders, position sizing strategies, and diversification to manage risk effectively. Ensure that these controls are strictly followed to prevent emotional trading decisions. ⚪ Monitor Performance and Adjust: Regularly review trading performance to identify patterns of loss aversion or risk-seeking behavior. Use this analysis to adjust trading strategies and improve decision-making processes. ⚪ Seek Continuous Improvement: Engage in ongoing education through books, courses, and trading simulations. Stay updated on market trends and behavioral finance insights to refine trading strategies continuously. By understanding the dynamics of loss aversion and the importance of structured risk management, retail traders can enhance their trading discipline and improve their chances of long-term success. █  Reference Willman, P., Fenton-O’Creevy, M., Nicholson, N., & Soane, E. (2002). Traders, managers and loss aversion in investment banking: A field study. Accounting, Organizations and Society, 27(1-2), 85-98. doi:10.1016/S0361-3682(01)00029-0. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:BCOUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
The Trading Matrix: 14 Vital Lessons DecodedThe Matrix is a movie where no matter what age you watch it, you’ll gain a different perspective from it. And there is a wealth of knowledge and ideas that you can unlock when you dig deep into the movie. A world where the line between reality and illusion blurs, much like the iconic film. The Matrix, with its deep philosophical underpinnings and action-packed storyline. It isn’t isn’t just a cult classic; it’s a treasure trove of lessons for traders. Let’s decode a few trading lessons you can learn from The Matrix. Building Confidence: The Neo Path Remember Neo’s metamorphosis? From Thomas Anderson, a man riddled with doubt, insecurity and worry. To Neo, the confident savior of humanity. This journey is similar to one that a trader takes. You begin with uncertainty, doubt and worry. You then develop greed and ego. The market disciplines and humbles you again and again and again. But then you develop the edge. You adapt to the trading world with gains, losses, drawdowns and different streaks. And then you develop self confidence and resilience as a trader. Like Neo, you might stumble, but remember, every setback is a setup for a comeback. Confirmation Bias: Dodging the Bullet Much like Neo’s iconic bullet-dodging scene, traders must learn to dodge the deadly bullet of confirmation bias. Neo created some form of movements and hand gestures in order to stop the bullets. But what he truly did was create confirmation bias that he was beyond the physics and laws of the universe. And this system is how he was able to go beyond the normal. Create or adopt a trading system that with Confirmation bias, you can identify high probability trades. And even though, you’re using some pseudo system that no one knows about. You’re simply turning chaos into financial order, to have a mechanical process involved – to grow a consistent account. Only by actively seeking diverse viewpoints can you dodge the bias bullet and make decisions that are truly informed. Take the Red Pill: Embrace Reality Taking the red pill is about confronting the brutal truths of the market. The trading world is not a bed of roses; it’s volatile, unpredictable, and sometimes harsh. Those traders who take the blue pill – Only look to win. Only look to build their portfolio with an insane win rate. Only look to go all in on certain positions. When you take the red pill, you take on the realities of trading. You acknowledge the risks. You prepare for the drawdowns. You know you’re going to take inevitable losses. You understand that your past trading does not indicate future results. Those oblivious traders – get destroyed. Like Neo, when you choose the red pill, you choose to see the market for what it truly is, warts and all. There Is No Spoon: The Power of Perspective The “There is no spoon” scene teaches us the power of perspective. In trading, the market isn’t your enemy; it’s your perception that needs adjusting. Bend your mind, not the spoon. Adopt a system which has a flexible mindset. Be ready to pivot your strategies in response to market dynamics. Success comes not from forcing the market to your will, but from adapting your will to the market. Understand the Code – Understand the Matrix Trading involves deciphering patterns, much like understanding the Matrix’s code. The market moves up, down and sideways. Given. But with Price, Volume and probabilities – there is a proliferation of world of opportunities with each market. Develop the ability to read charts, trends, and indicators. Recognize that behind every market movement, there’s a code to be cracked. Agent Smith and Market Manipulators Just as Agent Smith represents a threat within the Matrix, market manipulators pose real dangers. Stay away from markets with: Too much volatility Too many gaps Unusual trading activity Stay vigilant, and don’t be swayed by pump-and-dump schemes or misinformation. They will disrupt your trading journey. Training Simulation: Practice Makes Perfect Remember the scene where Neo was practice fighting in simulations with Trinity and Morpheus? He was testing, improving, adapting and learning. You should do the same before you risk your hard earned money. Test, Test, Test, Forward Test and Real Test. Use demo accounts and simulations to hone your skills. Make mistakes where it’s safe to do so, and learn from them without risking your capital. Morpheus’s Faith: Belief in Yourself Morpheus believed in Neo before he believed in himself. Cultivate self-belief. Trust in your analysis, your strategy, and your decisions. Without belief, fear and doubt will cloud your judgment. The Architect’s Plan: Strategy is Key Understand the market’s architecture. Develop a trading plan and stick to it. Adjust as necessary, but always with the structure of your overall strategy in mind. Free Your Mind: Emotional Control Neo’s journey was as much about freeing his mind as it was about saving the world. In trading, emotional control is paramount. You need to learn to let go of Ego, Fear and Greed. These are your greatest enemies. You can do this by: Having a strong back tested track record to prepare for what is to come. Risk even less until you don’t feel the losses. Real trade with the smallest positions to get an idea on how the markets work and will operate when you incorporate costs. Train yourself to remain calm and objective, regardless of the market’s ups and downs. FINAL WORDS: The Path to Financial Awakening Trading, is much like deciphering the Matrix. It is an ongoing journey fraught with challenges, revelations, and the need for constant adaptation. The key points to remember with the Trading Matrix are: Building Confidence: The Neo Path Develop self-belief through education and resilience. Confirmation Bias: Dodging the Bullet Seek diverse viewpoints to make informed decisions. Take the Red Pill: Embrace Reality Embrace the reality of the markets with all its risks. There Is No Spoon: The Power of Perspective Adjust your perspective and adapt to market dynamics. Understand the Code – Understand the Matrix Understand the code behind market movements. Agent Smith and Market Manipulators Stay vigilant against market manipulation. Training Simulation: Practice Makes Perfect Use simulations to hone your trading skills. Morpheus’s Faith: Belief in Yourself Cultivate self-belief and trust in your decisions. The Architect’s Plan: Strategy is Key Develop and stick to a well-thought-out trading plan. Free Your Mind: Emotional Control Master your emotions to remain calm and objective.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
How will Stocks React to Inflation?The stock market's reaction to an inflation trend always involves a delay. Based on studies of the inflation trend, this delay is approximately 6 months. How about the inflation data month by month? Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by konhow
2
Social Media - and its danger!Social Media... the part of the Internet that is very dangerous when it comes to promises, money, and wealth. We've all seen it: on social media, you can supposedly make millions in under 15 minutes. Pictures with a Lamborghini and a TradingView chart above it... Let's go through some thoughts new traders may not be aware of and how to look at them with a critical mind! (🚩 -> Red Flag) 📍 MetaTrader / Think or Swim / NinjaTrader / cTrader 📍 There are more, but let's focus on the more popular ones. Pictures of winning trades are useless when it comes to trading. Trading is done over years in a consistent manner, not over a few trades. Pictures of MT5, NT, or any other platform can easily be faked. You can set up your own little server for MetaTrader, play it out, and you have your fake trades. 📍 Fancy Cars / Travels / Houses 📍 Showing a fancy lifestyle is another big 🚩. All those people with fancy cars have leased or rented them for the image of being successful. It's to lure you in with false promises! (Although trading can be very fulfilling if you are willing to put in the work!) 📍 New Setup Every Few Weeks 📍 If a channel has a new setup every few weeks, this is only made for scamming new traders, not to have a setup that works. (Think about it, if you have a setup that works, why would you change?) Explore their profile, look for this pattern, and sometimes you will find it. Simple step :) 📍 Selling Courses / Mentorship 📍 You can learn all of trading for free. TradingView has a very nice paper trading feature that you can use and a very unique ideas section where you can find all the information you need! Here we come to a golden rule when it comes to starting trading: NEVER buy a course or mentorship. Never! You don't need it! (And also, TradingView's paper trading is free!) 📍 Very Basic Information Available Only 📍 Trading is hard; trading needs a lot of concepts fitting together like RR-System, Money Management, Multi-Timeframe Analysis. If you see a social media post with 1 chart with some boxes and another picture with a money screenshot, this is 100% fake. You need A LOT more than 1 chart and a lot more knowledge than you can ever show on even 3 charts. 📍 AI 📍 Oh, we all love AI, but I'm afraid that AI is not in the picture (yet). Pine can't code it, and the current state of "AI" is a "guessing" game. (AI just guesses what comes next, in the form of vectors... it's extremely complex, but it doesn't exist in trading.) 📍 Indicators 📍 Indicators are a very nice thing to have AFTER you have your strategy down, not before. There is no indicator that works on its own; you plug it in and it makes money... that doesn't exist! (Think about it critically: if that existed, why wouldn't we solve world hunger?) 📍 Typical Selling Point Sentences 📍 "Learn trading in 15 minutes" or "This is all you need" or "Only trade for 10 minutes a day" are the typical scam titles that you see, and with those, you know 100% they are fake. Trading is not done in 15 minutes, trading is hard work, and trading takes a long time to learn. There are no shortcuts. 📍 Things You Can Ask Them 📍 Typically speaking, they will not answer any of these questions because they can't. Like "How do you calculate your position size with your current RR setup?" This means they studied this, and you can be sure they didn't :) Or "How does leverage exactly work?" and like 99.99% of the YouTubers got it wrong. But a very nice thing to ask is a simple "Can I have a broker statement of your account?" and boom, they are gone. 🏆 Golden Rules 🏆 Never buy anything (you can learn 100% everything for free). Ask critical questions and follow up on them. Trading is hard; there is no 15-minute setup. Trading can't be 100% automated.
Education
by Swiss_Traders
3