Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): Volume and Price DynamicsVolume Spread Analysis (VSA): Understanding Market Intentions through Volume and Price Dynamics.
█ Simple Explanation:
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) is a trading technique that identifies key market patterns and trends by analyzing the relationship between volume and price spread, revealing traders' actions and market behavior.
Essentials in Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
Laws.
VSA Indicator.
Signs of Strength.
Signs of Weakness.
Note that while the provided examples are excellent for illustrating the points, they are unlikely to play out perfectly in most scenarios.
█ Laws
Three basic laws forming the foundation of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA).
The Law of Supply and Demand
This law states that supply and demand balance each other over time. High demand and low supply lead to rising prices until demand falls to a level where supply can meet it. Conversely, low demand and high supply cause prices to fall until demand increases enough to absorb the excess supply.
The Law of Cause and Effect
This law assumes that a 'cause' will result in an 'effect' proportional to the 'cause'. A strong 'cause' will lead to a strong trend (effect), while a weak 'cause' will lead to a weak trend.
The Law of Effort vs Result
This law asserts that the result should reflect the effort exerted. In trading terms, a large volume should result in a significant price move (spread). If the spread is small, the volume should also be small. Any deviation from this pattern is considered an anomaly.
█ VSA Indicator
This indicator simplifies the identification of Volume and Spread Levels. It provides options to display volume and/or spread bars. An enhanced version of the indicator auto-scales both volume and spread for optimal chart presentation, reloading every time the chart is moved.
Levels: Representing the levels of both volume and spread using the terminalogy of low, normal, high, and ultra.
Indicator Version 1: Display volume and/or spread bars. When both are displayed, the spread bars are shown in a fixed quantity.
Indicator Version 2: Display both volume and spread bars, with the spread bars scaled to the volume bars.
█ Signs of Strength
Indicates that the market is likely to experience bullish behavior.
Down Thrust: Indicates strong buying interest at lower prices, suggesting a potential upward reversal.
Selling Climax: Signifies a reversal point as panic selling exhausts and smart money starts accumulating.
Bear Effort No Result: A large downward price move without strong selling effort (volume) indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting the down move may be unsustained.
No Effort Bear Result: Strong selling effort (volume) fails to push prices down indicating an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting a potential lack of downward momentum.
Inverse Down Thrust: Shows buyers overpowering sellers, likely leading to a bullish market reversal.
Failed Selling Climax: Failed selling effort suggests strong buying support and a possible upward trend reversal.
Bull Outside Reversal: Indicates strong buying reversing a downtrend, confirmed by higher close.
End of Falling Market: Signifies strong buying absorbs panic selling at new lows, likely leading to stabilized price or reversal.
Pseudo Down Thrust: Suggests weakening of the downward momentum with a potential upward continuation if broken above high.
No Supply: Indicates a lack of selling interest at lower prices, potentially setting up for a price rise.
█ Signs of Weakness
Indicates that the market is likely to experience bearish behavior.
Up Thrust: Indicates sellers overpowering buyers during a price rise, suggesting a potential downward reversal.
Buying Climax: Represents peak buying, typically at price highs, with potential for reversal as sellers take control.
No Effort Bull Result: A large upward price move without strong buying pressure (volume) indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting the up move may be unsustained.
Bull Effort No Result: Strong buying (volume) fails to drive prices higher indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting a potential lack of upward momentum.
Inverse Up Thrust: Increased selling pressure during an uptrend suggests a possible shift to a downtrend.
Failed Buying Climax: High buying volume fails to sustain higher prices, indicating a potential reversal to downtrend.
Bear Outside Reversal: Strong selling pressure reversing an uptrend, signaling a potential downtrend.
End of Rising Market: Indicates buying saturation at market peaks, suggesting a possible reversal as demand exhausts.
Pseudo Down Thrust: Indicates weakening upward momentum with potential for downward continuation if broken below low.
No Demand: Indicates reduced buying interest at higher prices, possibly leading to a price decline.
Community ideas
Learn How to Apply Top-Down Multiple Time Frame Analysis
In this article, we will discuss how to apply Multiple Time Frame Analysis in trading .
I will teach you how to apply different time frames and will share with you some useful tips and example of a real trade that I take with Top-Down Analysis strategy.
Firstly, let's briefly define the classification of time frames that we will discuss:
There are 3 main categories of time frames:
1️⃣ Higher time frames
2️⃣ Trading time frames
3️⃣ Lower time frames
Higher Time Frames Analysis
1️⃣ Higher time frames are used for identification of the market trend and global picture. Weekly and daily time frames belong to this category.
The analysis of these time frames is the most important .
On these time frames, we make predictions and forecast the future direction of the market with trend analysis and we identify the levels , the areas from where we will trade our predictions with structure analysis .
Above is the example of a daily time frame analysis on NZDCAD.
We see that the market is trading in a strong bullish trend.
I underlined important support and resistance levels.
The supports will provide the safest zones to buy the market from anticipating a bullish trend continuation.
Trading Time Frames
2️⃣ Trading time frames are the time frames where the positions are opened . The analysis of these time frames initiates only after the market reaches the underlined trading levels, the areas on higher time frames.
My trading time frames are 4h/1h. There I am looking for a confirmation of the strength of the structures that I spotted on higher time frames. There are multiple ways to confirm that. My confirmations are the reversal price action patterns.
Once the confirmation is spotted, the position is opened.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to Support 1 on 1H time frame on NZDCAD pair, I spotted a strong bullish confirmation - a triple bottom formation.
A long position is opened on a retest of a broken neckline.
Lower Time Frames
3️⃣ Lower time frames are 30/15 minutes charts. Even though these time frames are NOT applied for trading, occasionally they provide some extra clues . Also, these time frames can be applied by riskier traders for opening trading positions before the confirmation is spotted on trading time frames.
Before the price broke a neckline of a triple bottom formation on an hourly time frame on NZDCAD, it broke a resistance line of a symmetrical triangle formation on 15 minutes time frame. It was an earlier and riskier confirmation to buy.
Learn to apply these 3 categories of time frames in a combination. Start your analysis with the highest time frame and steadily go lower, identifying more and more clues.
You will be impressed how efficient that strategy is.
Charting the Markets: Top 10 Technical Analysis Terms to KnowWelcome, market watchers, traders, and influencers to yet another teaching session with your favorite finance and markets platform! Today, we learn how to marketspeak — are you ready to up your trading game and talk like a Wall Street pro? We’ve got you covered.
This guide will take you through the top technical analysis terms every trader should know. So, kick back, grab a drink, and let’s roll into the world of candlesticks, moving averages, and all things chart-tastic!
1. Candlestick Patterns
First up, we have candlesticks , the bread and butter of any chart enthusiast. These little bars show the opening, closing, high, and low prices of a stock over a set period. Here are some key patterns to recognize next time you pop open a chart:
Doji : Signals market indecision; looks like a plus sign.
Hammer : Indicates potential reversal; resembles, well, a hammer.
Engulfing : A larger candle engulfs the previous one, suggesting a momentum shift.
Want these automated? There's a TradingView indicator for that.
2. Moving Averages (MA)
Next, we glide into moving averages . These are practically lines that smooth out price data to help identify trends over time. Here are the big players:
Simple Moving Average (SMA) : A straightforward average of prices over a specific period of days.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) : An average of prices but with more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to new information.
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI is your go-to for spotting overbought and oversold conditions. Ranging from 0 to 100, a reading above 70 means a stock might be overbought (time to sell?), while below 30 suggests it could be oversold (time to buy?). Super common mainstay indicator among traders from all levels.
4. Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands consist of a moving average with two standard deviation lines above and below it. When the bands squeeze, it signals low volatility, and when they expand, high volatility is in play. Think of Bollinger Bands as the mood rings of the trading world!
5. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
The MACD is all about momentum. It’s made up of two lines: the MACD line (difference between two EMAs) and the signal line (an EMA of the MACD line). When these lines cross, it can be a signal to buy or sell. Think of it as the heartbeat of the market.
6. Fibonacci Retracement
Named after a 13th-century mathematician, Fibonacci retracement levels are used to predict potential support and resistance levels. Traders use these golden ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%) to find points where an asset like a stock or a currency might reverse its direction.
7. Support and Resistance
Support and resistance are the battle lines drawn on your chart. Support is where the price tends to stop falling — finds enough buyers to support it — and resistance is where it tends to stop rising — finds enough sellers to resist it. Think of these two levels as the floor and ceiling of your trading room.
8. Volume
Volume is the fuel in your trading engine. It shows how much of a stock is being traded and can confirm trends. High volume means high interest, while low volume suggests the market is taking a nap from its responsibilities.
9. Trend Lines
Trend lines are your visual guide to understanding the market’s direction. Technical traders, generally, are big on trend lines. You can draw them by connecting at least a couple of lows in an uptrend or at least a couple of highs in a downtrend. They help you see where the market has been and where it might be headed.
10. Head and Shoulders
No, it’s not shampoo. The head and shoulders pattern is a classic reversal pattern. It consists of three peaks: a higher middle peak (head) between two lower peaks (shoulders). When you see this take shape in your chart, it might be time to rethink your position.
What’s Your Favorite?
So there you have it, a whirlwind tour of the top technical analysis terms that’ll help your trading yield better results and, as a bonus, make you sound like a trading guru. What’s your favorite among these 10 technical analysis tools? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Investment or Trade Mindset With ExampleNow looking to this chart, if we have long term vision then my question is "How long ?" and "Why Long?". Many of you are already familiar with technical or fundamental analysis but my point is how to discriminate your mind into two half for a same script or same sector.
Coming to the solution:
Let's know about benefits -"FAYDA". If we can then we can ride long term and short term both and by hypothetical calculation it will shock will brain like anything else.
Personally I have no interest to be biased for long term or short term. I can see only "Munafa" means profit.
It's very simple.
Step 1: For long term holding hold the script in account "A"
And for short term use different account "B"
Step 2: Well Define your long term system and short term system and place it in-front of your working table or place.
Step 3: Even for analysis use two different drawing.
Step 4: Even after doing these all your mind will disturb you. Just take a break of your screen by placing alert on your system.
I hope this can help you. Kindly let me know something that I can discuss and share with you.
In this way I am also learning.
Thank you for reading.
Using Interest Rate Parity to Trade ForexUsing Interest Rate Parity to Trade Forex
Interest rate parity stands as a cornerstone concept in forex trading, offering a lens to assess currency value shifts based on interest differentials. This article explains how traders can leverage this principle to make strategic decisions, delving into its mechanics, implications, and practical applications in the forex market.
Understanding Interest Rate Parity
Interest rate parity (IRP) is a foundational theory in foreign exchange markets that provides a link between exchange rate parity and the cost of borrowing. At its core, IRP posits that the difference in interest rates between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward and spot exchange rates when adjusted across compounding periods.
To understand IRP, one must first grasp the concepts of spot and forward rates. The spot rate is the current price at which one currency can be exchanged for another. For instance, if the EUR/USD spot price is 1.10, one euro can buy 1.10 US dollars today.
Conversely, a forward rate is agreed upon today but represents the price at which one currency will be exchanged for another at a future date. Forward values are based on the spot rate but adjusted by the interest differential between the two currencies. If the US borrowing cost is higher than that in the Eurozone, the forward price for EUR/USD will typically be higher than the spot price.
Exchange rate parity refers to a situation where the value of two currencies is at an equilibrium, such that there are no arbitrage opportunities from interest differentials. IRP theorises that the forex is efficient and self-correcting in the long run, with interest and exchange rates moving in tandem to eliminate arbitrage opportunities.
The Mechanics of IRP
The interest rate parity formula is instrumental in determining the fair value of a forward price. The formula is based on the premise that the difference in borrowing costs between two countries is an anchor of market movements over time. In essence, it equates the return on a domestic deposit to the return on a foreign deposit, factoring in price movements.
To calculate this, one would use an interest rate parity calculator, which requires inputs such as the domestic and foreign interest rates, the spot price, and the duration of the contract. The formula is expressed as:
F = S * (1 + id) / (1 + if) ^ t
Where:
F is the forward exchange rate,
S is the spot exchange rate,
id is the domestic interest rate,
if is the foreign interest rate,
t is the time duration of the contract (in years).
The forward rate (F) tells traders what the forex quote should be in the future to prevent arbitrage due to the interest differentials. For instance, if the domestic country A offers a lower lending rate compared to the foreign country B, it is expected that the domestic currency will depreciate in value relative to the foreign currency over time. The expected depreciation is reflected in a forward value that is lower than the spot value.
Understanding the IRP calculation can help traders analyse where currencies are headed, providing the foundation of strategies such as hedging or speculative trades based on anticipated lending rate movements. While these calculations provide theoretical values, actual market prices may diverge due to market sentiment, liquidity conditions, and unforeseen economic events.
Interest Rate Parity Example
Assume an investor is choosing between depositing $100,000 in the United States at an annual interest of 2% (id = 0.02) or in the United Kingdom at an annual interest of 5% (if = 0.05). The current spot price (S) is 1.3000 USD/GBP.
The future value of the US investment after one year would be:
100,000 * (1 + 0.02) = 102,000 USD
To calculate the equivalent investment in the UK, convert the dollars to pounds at the spot value and apply the UK lending rate:
(100,000 / 1.3000) * (1 + 0.05) ≈ 80,769.23 GBP
Now, to avoid arbitrage, the forward rate (F) should equate the future value of the UK investment when converted back to USD to the future value of the US investment. The formula to find the forward rate is:
F = S * (1 + id) / (1 + if)
Plug the values into the formula:
F = 1.3000 * (1 + 0.02) / (1 + 0.05)
Simplify the equation:
F = 1.3000 * 1.02 / 1.05
F ≈ 1.2714 USD/GBP
This means the forward price should be approximately 1.2714, indicating that in one year, one British pound is expected to be exchanged for 1.2714 US dollars, based on the interest differential.
Using IRP to Trade Forex
Using IRP in forex trading involves analysing currency parity to determine future prices. Traders can gauge the potential movement of forex pairs by examining the interest differentials between two economies.
If a country's borrowing costs rise relative to another's, its currency is often expected to strengthen due to the appeal of higher returns on investment. This relationship is a key consideration in strategies such as the carry trade, where traders borrow in a currency with a low borrowing cost and invest in one with a higher yield, taking advantage of the differential. Using platforms like FXOpen's TickTrader may enhance the process, providing over 1,200 trading tools to help demystify the markets.
Factors Influencing IRP
IRP is significantly influenced by central bank policies, as these institutions set the base interest rates in their respective currencies. Decisions to change these rates often reflect economic conditions like inflation, employment levels, and economic growth.
Additionally, geopolitical events, market sentiment, and financial stability contribute to borrowing cost fluctuations. While central bank announcements can cause immediate market reactions, long-term trends in IRP are shaped by the underlying economic health of nations. Traders monitor these indicators to analyse shifts in currency parity and adjust their strategies accordingly.
The Bottom Line
In exploring the intricacies of IRP, traders gain valuable insights into the dynamics of forex trading. It's a crucial part of a strategic toolkit, helping to anticipate and react to market movements. For those ready to apply this knowledge, opening an FXOpen account offers a gateway to harnessing the power of interest differentials in the dynamic forex market.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
My Latest Open Source Indicator: Stef's Dollar Volume CounterStef's Dollar Volume Counter is my second script that I've worked on and coded. It is free and open source for everyone! Get it here:
I am proud of this script because it does something very, very important: it counts the amount of money traded, not just the number of shares or contracts. In this educational post, I want to share why I think it matters and explain some concepts of markets along the way.
1. This is key for understanding where the big and small money is flowing in the market. By focusing on the dollar volume, traders can gain insights into liquidity and significant money movements over time.
2. Watch the money, not the shares. This script is totally different from other volume scripts because it shows the amount of money traded, not just the shares, contracts, or coins. More importantly, it stands out from other volume indicators because it specifically showcases dollar volume amounts either as a table or a label. This focus helps traders track the sheer money movements.
3. Know your perspective! I personally am most pleased with two important features that the indicator offers: it shows the Dollar Volume Counter table that illustrates the highest and lowest and average dollar volumes over a specific period that YOU can customize in the settings menu.
Fun little feature: In the spirit of Doge, I added a text lable that says "Wow! Much Money!" which highlights the top three recent highest dollar volumes within the visible chart area, emphasizing significant trading periods. You can toggle this on or off in the settings menu.
Thanks for reading! I look forward to hearing your feedback.
Ex. Averages interactionsHow trendlines averages interact with price, and can make(be/show) support, resistance, trends, and how crosses can signal moves.
The averages at the end, show memory of price in time, when you find something expensive or cheap over time, having the earlier prices as base for your(traders) sentiment.
After that you will have another feelings like greed or fear etc etc.
THE CORRELATION BETWEEN FOREX & COMMODITIESThe Correlation Between Forex Currencies and Commodities🌟
🔰The interplay between forex (foreign exchange) markets and commodities is intricate and multifaceted. Understanding these connections can provide valuable insights for traders and investors. Here are some key points to consider👇
🔰Commodity Pairs (Commodity Currencies):
Certain currency pairs are closely tied to changes in commodity prices. These pairs are often referred to as “commodity pairs” or “commodity currencies.”
🔰Commodity currencies come from countries with substantial commodity reserves. These nations produce and export various commodities, which significantly influence their economies.
⭐The three primary commodity currencies are👇
🔰Australian Dollar (AUD): Australia is a major gold producer, and its currency tends to correlate with gold prices. Additionally, Australia exports other commodities like iron ore and coal!!
🔰Canadian Dollar (CAD): Canada is a significant exporter of oil, making its economy sensitive to oil prices. The CAD is closely linked to crude oil!
🔰New Zealand Dollar (NZD): New Zealand’s economy is also tied to commodities, particularly dairy products. Hence, the NZD has correlations with dairy prices.
❗Other currencies, such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY), are impacted by commodity prices but exhibit weaker correlations. For instance, the CHF and JPY tend to rise when commodity prices fall.
⭐Understanding Correlations👇
🔰Currency traders can capitalize on the fact that specific currencies tend to move in sync with commodity prices. This alignment often occurs when a country’s economy heavily relies on natural resources.
🔰When commodity prices rise, the currencies of resource-dependent countries tend to strengthen, and vice versa.
🔰Monitoring correlations in real-time is crucial. There are times when relationships break down, and failing to recognize these shifts can be costly for traders.
🔰Traders should consider factors like commissions, spreads, liquidity, and access to information when deciding which currency/commodity relationships to trade.
⭐Examples of Correlations👇
🔰CAD/JPY (Canadian Dollar vs. Japanese Yen): Canada’s economy is significantly affected by oil prices due to its oil exports. Japan, on the other hand, is a major oil importer. As a result, the CAD/JPY positively correlates with oil prices. Traders can monitor this pair along with the USD/CAD.
🔰USD/CAD (US Dollar vs. Canadian Dollar): Since oil is priced in US dollars globally, fluctuations in the dollar impact oil prices (and vice versa). Both the US and Canada are major oil importers and exporters, making the USD/CAD relevant for tracking oil-related movements.
AUD/USD (Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar): Australia’s strong ties to gold production and other commodities create a correlation between the AUD and commodity prices.
🔰NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar vs. US Dollar): New Zealand’s dairy exports influence the NZD’s movements.
⭐Using Correlation Indicators👇
🔰Traders can employ correlation indicators to visualize real-time correlations between commodities and currency pairs over specific periods.
🔰These indicators help capture small divergences and provide insights for trading decisions.
In summary, the relationship between forex and commodities is dynamic. Changes in commodity prices can impact currency values, and understanding these interconnections can enhance your trading strategies. Remember to stay informed, monitor correlations, and adapt to market shifts! 🌟
MASTERING SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLES: A GUIDE FOR TRADERS👀See the first 3 items on the chart👆
🔰Other details:
⭐D:
⭐E:
⭐F:
⭐G:
🔰Additional Considerations for Triangles:
⭐H: Number of Points: To construct a triangle, we need at least two HIGHS and two LOWS. Occasionally, triangles are formed using six points instead of the usual four.
⭐I: Validity Criterion: The BREAKOUT point (exit point) of a triangle should not be too close to the intersection of its upper and lower sides; otherwise, the triangle loses its validity.
TURN BY TURN (THAI STOCKS) w/SPECIAL GUEST SARA HOHLER Today's Show: Exploring Thai Stocks with Special Guests Moneymagnatesara & Moneymagnateaira
In today's episode, we dive into the world of Thai stocks, featuring insights from our special guests, Moneymagnatesara and Moneymagnateaira. Moneymagnatesara, a Thai/German native, shares her unique consumer perspective on various prominent companies, while Moneymagnateaira keeps us entertained with her singing and commentary. Join us as we discuss the following stocks and their market standings:
PTT Public Company Limited (PTT):
A leading energy and petrochemical company in Thailand, known for its significant role in the petroleum industry, including both upstream and downstream operations (Simply Wall St) (MarketScreener).
Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (AOT):
The main operator of Thailand's airports, AOT is crucial in managing the country's aviation infrastructure and ensuring the efficiency and growth of its air travel industry.
Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (ADVANC):
Thailand's largest mobile network operator, ADVANC provides a wide range of telecommunication services, including mobile, broadband, and digital services.
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS):
One of the largest private hospital operators in Thailand, BDMS offers comprehensive medical services and is known for its extensive network of hospitals and healthcare facilities.
Siam Commercial Bank (SCB):
As one of Thailand's oldest and largest banks, SCB offers a wide array of financial services, including personal, business, and investment banking.
We agree to have a more in-depth episode with the grown-ups in the future, but for now, enjoy this unique perspective and feel free to ask questions about Thailand to gain an edge in emerging markets.
Tune in for an engaging conversation and insights that could benefit your investment strategies in the Thai market!
43 lessons about forex trading at 43 that I wish I’d known at 23I turned 43 last week. I’ve been working for global brokerages and trading for 16 years. Here’s 43 things I wish I knew back then when I first started trading:
1. Start with your objectives first. I once asked a hedge fund manager what his advice for new traders is, and he said ‘get your objectives clear first.’ Set your goals first, and then create a plan to achieve them.’
2. Risk/reward is everything. As a trader, your job is to place trades with an asymmetrical risk/reward profile – i.e. trades where you can make more than you can lose. That’s what good trading is all about.
3. You are a risk manager first, and a trader second. Your top priority as a trader is to protect your trading capital. Then, secondly, it is to make money. Not the other way around.
4. Cut your losses short and let your profits run. After working in brokerages for 16 years, if I know one thing about retail traders, it is they let their losses run and take their profits too quickly. Don’t be like them.
5. Be properly capitalised. The main reason I’ve seen traders lose is they have too small accounts and use too much leverage. Keep your risks small compared to the size of your account.
6. Use a rules-based approach to trading. Write a plan that contains rules for every decision you need to make as a trader…and then follow it.
7. Be clear and specific. Be clear about your goals, your objectives for each trade, and when you will enter and exit the market. If you are not clear, then keep planning until you are.
8. Mistakes kill trading systems. Errors – for example, not following your rules (or even worse, trading without rules) can make the difference between hitting your goals, or having a losing month.
9. Trade your best idea. Keep it simple and focus on your best idea at the time. Don’t trade too many strategies or systems all at one time.
10. Trade the correct strategy for the market type. Sell in bear markets, buy in bull markets. Range trade or stay out of sideways markets. If the market forms a tight range, trade the breakout. Pick the right approach for the current market conditions.
11. You will not win all the time… and that’s ok. Even the best traders have losing weeks, months and years. Go easy on yourself when things are not working out. Keep trying to improve.
12. Trade less, not more. I made 3% a month over 3 years, taking one trade a day. You don’t need to trade often to hit your objectives.
13. You only need one good trade. One good trade a week or month is all you need to achieve your objectives.
14. You achieve your goals through position-sizing. Controlling the size of your position is more important than getting the trade direction correct.
15. It’s not how often you win, but how much you make when you do. It does not matter if you take lots of small losses, as long as you make large gains when you win.
16. Play the probabilities, not what you think is going to happen. Don’t try to ‘make a trade work’ by taking profit early or not taking a trade, rather trust in the probabilities and your plan.
17. Time of day matters. The forex markets often change direction when the Tokyo, London and New York markets open. Be prepared.
18. Don’t trade on Monday mornings. Funny things happen on Monday mornings when most traders are asleep and the markets are illiquid. It’s best to avoid trading at this time...oh and stay away from New York Friday afternoon too.
19. Keep your entries simple…Don’t over-complicate your entries. A simple breakout or pull-back during a trend will work. Keep your entries simple so you can act decisively.
20. …and your exits complex. Many things happen after you enter a trade, so you need a toolbox of exit strategies.
21. Take some profit when the market gets overbought or oversold. I used to hold on to every trade, hoping it would be a massive winner, only to see it reverse and my profit disappear. Now, I’m happy to take profit as soon as the market signals it’s about to reverse.
22. Trail your stop-loss, but not too close. A trailing stop will allow you to keep your gains. Don’t put it so tight that it will knock you out of the big winners.
23. Move your stop to breakeven, but not too early. Having a trade that you’ve made risk-free by moving the stop loss point is a great feeling. But don’t do it so early that you get whipsawed.
24. News events will be the greatest source of profits and losses . Pay close attention to news events, as they have the power to wipe out your hard-earned gains or generate windfall profits - in the blink of an eye.
25. Record your trades. Keep track of all the trades you make so you can review your performance and…
26. Do more of what works, and less of what doesn't. Doing this over and over again is the secret to success.
27. Know your macros. I’m not talking about calorie-counting. Learning macro analysis of the forex markets will prove valuable in the long run as you will understand what is behind the movements on the charts.
28. Scale-in to high-conviction trades. If you have a high-conviction winner, backed by the fundamentals, then maximise it by adding to the trade as it goes your way.
29. Practice mental rehearsal. Like an elite athlete before their big event, practice executing your trades perfectly in your mind's eye. And take deep breaths while you’re rehearsing.
30. Trading is a game. View trading as a game, where you make the rules and your profits are your winning score.
31. Develop personal discipline. The key to consistent trading is developing the discipline to trade your tested rules, even when you have a series of losses.
32. Keep your thinking flexible. Don’t hold onto a view too tightly, and be prepared to do a u-turn and go the other way.
33. Trade for yourself, not what others will think of you. Do you for you. Not for what others will think of you, or because of what you’ve seen another trader do on social media.
34. Know yourself, before you trust others. Don’t give your money to someone else to trade, until you at least understand how to manage risk yourself. Then you can tell if they are any good at it.
35. Your broker is (probably) not your enemy… in my 16 years of experience, major regulated brokers are not trading against you. They want you to have a good trading experience.
36. …but they are not your mate. They are not always going to call you if you lose money to assist you. That’s not their priority.
37. Costs add up. Costs compound negatively, just like returns compound positively. Keep your transaction costs and fees as low as you can.
38. There is always a marketmaker. If your broker is not the marketmaker, then their liquidity provider is. In the forex market, there is always a marketmaker somewhere down the line.
39. Grind it out. Show up each day, follow your processes, and the results will come. Get used to the grind, and don’t chase the fast win.
40. Don’t tie your self-worth to the markets. The markets are a fickle, challenging beast and your success as a trader is not something to base your personal self-esteem on.
41. Spend your time being happy. Good traders are relaxed and happy. Remain calm and have a positive expectation.
42. Fight the good fight. Author Paulho Coelho said: “The Good Fight is the one that we fight in the name of our dreams.” If you are passionate about trading, keep up the fight. Keep trading, learning and growing and you’ll get there.
43. Enjoy the journey. Trading is a journey through the Himalayas. The highs are high and the lows are lows. The key is to enjoy every step.
Thanks for listening.
Sam
Revisiting the GME JourneyHi, here i'm taking GME as an example to show the use/power of simple drawing tools ( Channel, Curve, Arc and trendlines).
these tools helps in finding the patterns , i do have firm believe that intersection of patterns and timelines creates news/events
i also try to show how using multiple tfs help in analysis, as each time frame (tf) has many possible patterns but it is important to find the pattern followed by the price at that particular time
most of us know the importance of TA in trading and that is the reason why we r using " tv" a great place to analyse
everything on this earth follows some kind of patterns, used by many greats in there trading journey ( ratios/ angles)
you will find many graphics in the comment section which i will add after publishing this , i will also give examples from other assets , but my main focus would be on GME journey
Exploring Bearish Plays w/ Futures, Micros & Options on FutureIntroduction
The WTI Crude Oil futures market provides various avenues for traders to profit from bullish and bearish market conditions. This article delves into several bearish strategies using standard WTI Crude Oil futures, Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contracts, and options on these futures. Whether you are looking to trade outright futures contracts, construct complex spreads, or utilize options strategies, this publication aims to assist you in formulating effective bearish plays while managing risk efficiently.
Choosing the Right Contract Size
When considering a bearish play on WTI Crude Oil futures, the first decision involves selecting the appropriate contract size. The standard WTI Crude Oil futures and Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contracts offer different levels of exposure and risk.
WTI Crude Oil Futures:
Standardized contracts linked to WTI Crude Oil with a point value = $1,000 per point.
Suitable for traders seeking significant exposure to market movements.
Greater potential for profits but also higher risk due to larger contract size.
TradingView ticker symbol is CL1!
Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for WTI Crude Oil futures is approximately $6,000 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions.
Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures:
Contracts representing one-tenth the value of the standard WTI Crude Oil futures.
Each point move in the Micro WTI Crude Oil futures equals $100.
Ideal for traders who prefer lower exposure and risk.
Allows for more precise risk management and position sizing.
TradingView ticker symbol is MCL1!
Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for Micro WTI Crude Oil futures is approximately $600 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions.
Choosing between standard WTI Crude Oil and Micro WTI Crude Oil futures depends on your risk tolerance, account size, and trading strategy. Smaller contracts like the Micro WTI Crude Oil futures offer flexibility, particularly for newer traders or those with smaller accounts.
Bearish Futures Strategies
Outright Futures Contracts:
Selling WTI Crude Oil futures outright is a straightforward way to express a bearish view on the market. This strategy involves selling a futures contract in anticipation of a decline in oil prices.
Benefits:
Direct exposure to market movements.
Simple execution and understanding.
Ability to leverage positions due to margin requirements.
Risks:
Potential for significant losses if the market moves against your position.
Mark-to-market losses can trigger margin calls.
Example Trade:
Sell one WTI Crude Oil futures contract at 81.00.
Target price: 76.00.
Stop-loss price: 82.50.
This trade aims to profit from a 5.00-point decline in oil prices, with a risk of a 1.50-point rise.
Futures Spreads:
1. Calendar Spreads: A calendar spread, also known as a time spread, involves selling (or buying) a longer-term futures contract and buying (or selling) a shorter-term futures contract with the same underlying asset. This strategy profits from the difference in price movements between the two contracts.
Benefits:
Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions.
Potential to profit from changes in the futures curve.
Risks:
Limited profit potential compared to outright positions.
Changes in contango or backwardation could hurt the position.
Example Trade:
Sell an October WTI Crude Oil futures contract.
Buy a September WTI Crude Oil futures contract.
Target spread: Decrease in the difference between the two contract prices.
In this example, the trader expects the October contract to lose more value relative to the September contract over time. The profit is made if the spread between the December and September contracts widens.
2. Butterfly Spreads: A butterfly spread involves a combination of long and short futures positions at different expiration dates. This strategy profits from minimal price movement around a central expiration date. It is constructed by selling (or buying) a futures contract, buying (or selling) two futures contracts at a nearer expiration date, and selling (or buying) another futures contract at an even nearer expiration date.
Benefits:
Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions.
Profits from stable prices around the middle expiration date.
Risks:
Limited profit potential compared to other spread strategies or outright positions.
Changes in contango or backwardation could hurt the position.
Example Trade:
Sell one November WTI Crude Oil futures contract.
Buy two October WTI Crude Oil futures contracts.
Sell one September WTI Crude Oil futures contract.
In this example, the trader expects WTI Crude Oil prices to remain relatively stable.
Bearish Options Strategies
1. Long Puts: Buying put options on WTI Crude Oil futures is a classic bearish strategy. It allows traders to benefit from downward price movements while limiting potential losses to the premium paid for the options.
Benefits:
Limited risk to the premium paid.
Potential for significant profit if the underlying futures contract price falls.
Leverage, allowing control of a large position with a relatively small investment.
Risks:
Potential loss of the entire premium if the market does not move as expected.
Time decay, where the value of the option decreases as the expiration date approaches.
Example Trade:
Buy one put option on WTI Crude Oil futures with a strike price of 81.00, expiring in 30 days.
Target price: 76.00.
Stop-loss: Premium paid (e.g., 2.75 points x $1,000 per contract).
If the WTI Crude Oil futures price drops below 81.00, the put option gains value, and the trader can sell it for a profit. If the price stays above 78.25, the trader loses only the premium paid.
2. Synthetic Short: Creating a synthetic short involves buying a put option and selling a call option at the same strike price and expiration. This strategy mimics holding a short position in the underlying futures contract.
Benefits:
Similar profit potential to shorting the futures contract.
Flexibility in managing risk and adjusting positions.
Risks:
Potential for unlimited losses if the market moves significantly against the position.
Requires margin to sell the call option.
Example Trade:
Buy one put option on WTI Crude Oil futures at 81.00, expiring in 30 days.
Sell one call option on WTI Crude Oil futures at 81.00, expiring in 30 days.
Target price: 76.00.
The profit and loss (PnL) profile of the synthetic short position would be the same as holding a short position in the underlying futures contract. If the price falls, the position gains value dollar-for-dollar with the underlying futures contract. If the price rises, the position loses value in the same manner.
3. Bearish Options Spreads: Options offer versatility and adaptability, allowing traders to design various bearish spread strategies. These strategies can be customized to specific market conditions, risk tolerances, and trading goals. Popular bearish options spreads include:
Vertical Put Spreads
Bear Put Spreads
Put Debit Spreads
Ratio Put Spreads
Diagonal Put Spreads
Calendar Put Spreads
Bearish Butterfly Spreads
Bearish Condor Spreads
Etc.
Example Trade:
Bear Put Spread: Buying the 81.00 put and selling the 75.00 put with 30 days to expiration.
Risk Profile Graph:
This example shows a bear put spread aiming to profit from a decline in WTI Crude Oil prices while limiting potential losses.
For detailed explanations and examples of these and other bearish options spread strategies, please refer to our published ideas under the "Options Blueprint Series." These resources provide in-depth analysis and step-by-step guidance.
Trading Plan
A well-defined trading plan is crucial for successfully executing any strategy. Here’s a step-by-step guide to formulating your plan:
1. Select the Strategy: Choose between outright futures contracts, calendar or butterfly spreads, or options strategies based on your market outlook and risk tolerance.
2. Determine Entry and Exit Points:
Entry price: Define the price level at which you will enter the trade (e.g., breakout, UFO resistance, indicators convergence/divergence, etc.).
Target price: Set a realistic target based on technical analysis or market projections.
Stop-loss price: Establish a stop-loss level to manage risk and limit potential losses.
3. Position Sizing: Calculate the appropriate position size based on your account size and risk tolerance. Ensure that the position aligns with your overall portfolio strategy.
4. Risk Management: Implement risk management techniques such as using stop-loss orders, hedging, and diversifying positions to protect your capital. Risk management is vital in trading to protect your capital and ensure long-term success.
Conclusion
In this article, we've explored various bearish strategies using WTI Crude Oil futures, Micro WTI Crude Oil futures, and options on futures. From outright futures contracts to sophisticated spreads and options strategies, traders have multiple tools to capitalize on bearish market conditions while managing their risk effectively.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
EURUSD - Another Trade Analysis Using ICT ConceptsVery beautiful again today.
With the expectation of higher prices, I took a long on EURUSD. As I illustrate in the video, there were very nice algorithmic price action and sentiment manipulated. All the things I love to see in a high-probability setup.
I hope you enjoy the video and found it insightful.
- R2F
Unlock the Secrets of Gold Trading: Pericles' Ancient WisdomIn this video, we explore the profound perspectives on fear from historical figures like Pericles and modern thinkers like Ryan Holiday. Pericles, the esteemed Athenian statesman, saw fear as a natural emotion that should not paralyze us. He believed in confronting fear with courage, rational thought, and strategic planning, using it as a tool for effective decision-making.
Ryan Holiday, drawing on Stoic philosophy in his works, echoes these sentiments with stories of historical figures who turned fear into fuel for success. He recounts how John D. Rockefeller faced market crashes with calm calculation and how Theodore Roosevelt overcame health challenges by embracing adversity.
Both Pericles and Holiday teach us that fear, when managed correctly, can become a powerful ally. By acknowledging fear, confronting it with rationality and courage, and using it to sharpen our focus and strategy, we can transform challenges into opportunities for growth and success. This approach is especially relevant in the realm of trading, where mastering fear can lead to better decision-making and greater resilience.
Key Levels and Patterns:
Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL):
The chart shows a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), indicating an overall uptrend. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is still in play.
Ascending Channel:
There is a well-defined ascending channel where the price has been moving upwards within parallel trendlines. This channel can act as a guide for potential support and resistance levels.
Reversal Points (LQZ):
1-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: Located at 2,429.190. This level is a potential area where price may reverse or find support.
4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: Located at 2,391.394. This level also serves as a significant support zone.
Take Profit (TP) Levels:
TP 1: 2,319.385
TP 2: 2,288.085
TP 3: 2,265.369
Recent Price Action:
The price recently reached a higher high at around 2,458.755 and then pulled back slightly, indicating a potential short-term correction within the overall uptrend.
The ascending channel suggests that if the price remains above the lower boundary of the channel, the uptrend is likely to continue.
If the price breaks below the 1-hour LQZ / Reversal Point at 2,429.190, it could test the 4-hour LQZ / Reversal Point at 2,391.394. A further breakdown below this level might lead to the next support at TP 1.
Analysis Summary:
Bullish Scenario: The price could bounce from the current levels or the lower boundary of the ascending channel, aiming for new highs. Traders might look for buying opportunities near the support levels of the channel and reversal points.
Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below the identified reversal points and the ascending channel, it might signal a deeper correction, potentially heading towards the TP levels for possible buying opportunities at lower prices.
By applying Pericles' wisdom of confronting fear with rationality and Ryan Holiday's insights on turning fear into strategic advantage, traders can approach these levels with a clear, disciplined mindset, making informed decisions even in volatile market conditions.
How to start Trading!We (the discord mods) are trying to get a document going where people can look for advice on how to get started in trading, its not an easy question and certainly not an easy answer, but here we go :)
Be prepared that to becoming a profitable trader you will need months (even years) of training and learning, but its worth the time!
The beauty of Tradingview and its tools (Paper trading) is that you can learn it all for free. (All you need is time). You can demo trade for free, learn and experiance how the market moves, learn what you want to do later in life and learn all the nessessary tools you will need!
We realize that certain information is maybe something that you dont agree first or you say "what? that cant be real?", but bear with us for the time being, go through this document and then decide!
So, lets start with the first question for you:
What lifestyle do you have at the moment?
Why is that important? well, for each trade you need a few hours of preparation, and if you are a daytrader (intraday trader or scalper) then you trade each day (even multiple times) and each time you need preparation, can you do that? can you sit 4-6h infront of the computer everyday to analyse a trade?
If not, we have other options for you.. for example swing trader or investor.
What type of person are you?
For example: if you decide to do scalping, be prepared to get more stressful situations then a daytrader.
So it's important to figure out how you want to trade and what you can actually handle (the psychology in trading has a HUGE impact of your trading life.)
If you go and test out some strategies and you realize that this is not for you, then you have a clear sign that you shouldnt explore this further.
What type of assets can you trade?
There are local laws that you have to follow in your country that may be restrictive to certain assets so you have to figure out what you can actually trade. There are plenty of assets outthere, you just have to explore them and search for a broker you can actually sign up with a KYC.
For this, the best option is to go to Brokers and check them out until you find one that is allowed in your country.
(Be careful with brokers not on tradingviews list, for example if you want to trade crypto but its not allowed in your country but you find some broker you can sign up, the problem comes once you want to withdraw and use the money in your country. your local bank is most likely not letting you do that.)
Basics of Trading
No matter what you decide to be (daytrader, scalper, investor..), you will need to learn the basics of all of them.
Learn all the basic Terms such as:
- Long / Short (Bullish / Bearish)
- Bid / Ask (combined with spread below)
- Crypto, Forex, CFD, Stocks, Options (Bonds, Shares, Indices...)
- Market Order / Limit Order (Stoploss (SL), Profit Target (TP), Trailing)
- Leverage
- Margin / Balance
- Spread / Slippage
- Gaps
- Ranges
- Timeframe / Sessions
And then there are the major Indicators:
- RSI
- MACD
- Stochastics
- Moving Averages (simple, exponential, smoothed, and so on..)
- Price trends
- Support and Resistance (Supply & Demand)
- Volume
I know, alot of you reading this go like "What? indicators are useless, price action is the real deal.." but thats not the point here, we are learning the basics of trading. The more you know the better you will be at trading. Knowledge is power.
Also i would advice you to study the math behind them too, while you do that you learn how and why they act the way they do!
Journal
Yes, we all hate it but we all know why its good to do! :)
The simplest method i find is to use the long/short tool of tradingview, write down the notes in a textfield and then hide it in the control-center of your drawings (rightclick into chart -> Object Tree)
Do it! you won't regret it!
Risk Reward
This topic is something so many of you ignore and its one of the most important part of trading.
You all heard the sentence "there is no trading without SL" and some of you may think "yeah, thats not true", but in the Risk Reward section you learn how and why this sentence is as true as it gets. you never, ever trade without SL because otherwise you cant calculate your risk.
There is also the golden rule "Never risk more then 1% of your Money" and with an SL you can manage this sentence, without it, how can you even begin to manage this? you can't.
(Yes, i know some of you risk 2-5%, but not me, im a firm believer you should never break this rule).
If you risk 1% and lose 10 times in a row, you lost 10%. if your RR is 1:3, you need 4 wins to regain your losses.
If you risk 2% and lose 10 times in a row, you lost 20%. if your RR is 1:3, you need 7 wins to regain your losses.
... you see where this goes, right?
For this, and any other topic above, the best thing to use is the Search function on tradingview, input the title and read it all. (yes, all, yes it will take weeks, yes tahts what its all about)
Psychology
Okey, this one is a big one. not gonna lie, that will take the most time because we are all humans.
you will experiance FOMO (fear of missing out), greed, rage, and so on... thats just normal.
Thats the biggest reason to start journaling your trades, write down what you felt, why did you take a trade that you realize you shouldnt have in the first place?
So, in psychology everyone needs to figure out how he/she is obviously, i can just tell you how i do it right now and what steps made the biggest impact:
I do only 1:2 RR trades.
- Yes, after 1:2 im out, i dont care if he goes to the moon, all i care is that im no longer in a trade (my mind plays all kinds of tricks while in a trade.)
- Big impact!
I only trade 1 asset.
- I trade EURUSD all day long for years now. No, i dont look at others while im actively trading.
- Big impact!
I set and forget.
- i put in my SL and TP and once im in the trade (or even set the limit order) im semi-afk from the charts.
- I have 2 alerts on my tradingview, one for the TP and one for the SL. thats it.
those few steps helped me a ton in my trading, and yes, they may not be for everyone but it is just a showcase of hwo you need to find something that works for you.
Charting with Elliott WavesUnderstanding how to do Technical Analysis of any chart based on Elliott Waves
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice. Multiple scenarios are possible in the real market, and there is a risk of being wrong. It is essential to consult with a financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. We are not responsible for any profits or losses incurred based on this analysis.
Wave Rules:
Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.
Wave 3 is never the shortest wave.
Wave 4 should not overlap with Wave 1's price territory, except in diagonal triangles.
Applying Elliott Wave Theory
Elliott Wave Theory is a powerful tool for traders, but it requires practice and a deep understanding of market psychology. By analyzing wave patterns, degrees, and Fibonacci relationships, traders can gain insights into potential market trends and make informed trading decisions. It is important to combine Elliott Wave analysis with other technical indicators and risk management strategies to enhance the accuracy and reliability of market forecasts.
Elliott Wave Theory provides a comprehensive framework for understanding market cycles and predicting price movements. By mastering its principles and applying them with discipline, traders can enhance their ability to navigate the financial markets and capitalize on emerging trends.
Let's understand study of this chart
Current Wave Structure
Primary Wave Count:
- The chart illustrates a completed five-wave impulse sequence (1-2-3-4-5) followed by a corrective phase.
- The primary impulse wave (labeled in red) has completed its cycle, marked by a significant peak at Wave 5.
- The subsequent corrective wave (labeled in blue as (4)) has also completed, indicating a potential beginning of a new impulse sequence.
Subwave Count:
- The internal structure of the primary waves shows clear subwaves, especially within the third wave, which is typically the strongest and longest.
- The chart depicts detailed labeling of smaller degree waves (i-ii-iii-iv-v), ensuring adherence to Elliott Wave principles.
Recent Breakout Analysis
Breakout Confirmation:
- Recently, the price has broken out from a consolidation zone, supported by increased trading volumes. This is a positive sign indicating strong market interest and momentum.
- The breakout occurred after the price retested the previous resistance level, which now acts as a support. This successful retest enhances the credibility of the breakout.
Future Projections
Impulsive Bias:
- Based on the wave structure, the stock appears to be in the early stages of a new impulse wave. This suggests a bullish outlook with potential for significant upward movement.
- The immediate target for this impulse wave is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at INR 2,976.60, aligning with typical Elliott Wave projections for Wave 3.
Invalidation Level:
- The nearest invalidation level for this bullish scenario is marked at INR 1,651.40. A break below this level would suggest a re-evaluation of the wave count and the current bullish bias.
Conclusion
The technical analysis of Dalmia Bharat Ltd. indicates a favorable outlook for continued upward movement, supported by a clear Elliott Wave structure and recent breakout confirmation with good volume. However, traders should monitor the invalidation level closely.
I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.