BTCUSD - Using Fibonacci To ScalpGood morning everyone!
A bit of a different video today - more of an educational video. This is how I use fibonacci when I do trading. Over the last couple days, Bitcoin has been a great asset to scalp. I don't leverage trade often, but when I do, I try and look for the high probability setups.
Using the 61.8% internal retracement fibonacci (fib) level, you can find a great place to make a trade, both long or short. After dropping from 93k to 88k, we can measure that move and find where the price action would move 61.8% within it. That's where you attack.
Risk management? Well, from there, you need to give yourself some wiggle room. As you can see from the video, price action navigated within my stop territory, but you can use the 78.6% fib level (beyond the 61.8 level) as a stop. Typically, if price action gets to that 78.6% level, it's not going to stop.
Target? I outlined two ways to get a target, but typically when you do get a rejection off that 61.8, you should be targeting the -23.6% fib extension target. That's basically exactly where bitcoin landed - around 87k.
That is the general rule of thumb when trading with fibonacci - which as I mentioned in my video update - is one of the ONLY leading indicators - meaning it can give you insights into the future vs just explaining in many ways what has already happened.
Have a great day everyone!
Community ideas
Your Pathway to Becoming a Technical Analyst INTRODUCTION
Types of Market Analysis
There are three primary types of market analysis:
Fundamental Analysis: This involves analyzing economic indicators, political events, and other factors that can influence market prices.
Technical Analysis: This involves studying past price and volume data to identify patterns and trends that can predict future price movements.
Sentiment Analysis: This involves analyzing market sentiment, or the overall mood of investors, to gauge potential price movements.
The Importance of a Balanced Approach
While it's possible to specialize in one type of analysis, a well-rounded trader should have a solid understanding of all three. Ignoring fundamental or sentiment analysis can lead to unexpected market movements that can negatively impact your trading strategy.
Key Points to Remember:
Balance is Key: Aim to develop a strong foundation in all three types of analysis.
Prioritize Your Focus: Choose one type of analysis as your primary focus and use the others to supplement your strategy.
Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with economic news, political events, and market sentiment.
Adapt to Changing Conditions: Be flexible and willing to adjust your strategy as market conditions change.
By understanding and applying these principles, you can improve your trading decisions and increase your chances of success.
How are risk free trades done (a simple way)🟢 How are risk free trades done (a simple way)
✴️ Rationale
The video shows how to take advantage of an incredibly famous chart pattern:
🥇 The TRIPLE BOTTOM chart pattern🥇
This pattern shows a strong support that have worked at least 3 times, and the video shows how to act when the 4th bottom is unfolding.
The video shows how trade RISK FREE avoiding the risk as soon as the market allows you to do so.
Step 1: Split
Use 50% of your money for the risk free strategy and the other 50% to Take large profits.
Step 2: Set up Stop Loss for both strategies
Both strategies should share the Stop Loss, usually around 3 to 6% and trying to use some previous minimum/maximum prices to adjust.
Step 3: Set up a Risk Free take profits
The first 50% of your capital will have more or less the same Stop Loss and Take profits. Both will be around 3 to 6% of the buy level. If the take profits is hit, you earn enough to pay for the Stop Loss of the other 50%.
Step 4: Find a reasonable Take profits for the returns strategy
The other 50% of your money needs a take profits far away of the buy zone, meaning that you can potentially earn more than 3 times the risk. So at least find for 10% targets, if that's not posible this is not a feasible trade, there is too much risk. Always check previous support and resistance levels.
Step 4: Enjoy
There are 3 outcomes:
1. Both strategies do Stop Loss and you lose around 3 to 6% of the amount of the trade.
2. Your Risk free trade take profits work but your return strategy fail. this is a 0 to 1% return.
3. Both strategies work as expected giving you over 10% return on average.
In the video you'll see opportunities in:
NYSE:OXY
🟢 +10% trade finished (risk free gains)
🟢 +10% trade finished (risk free gains)
🔵 0% trade finished (risk free)
🟢 +25% unfolding (risk free phase)
NASDAQ:DLTR
🟢 +15% trade unfolding (risk free phase)
The idea:
FX:EURUSD
🟢 200 pips trade unfolding (risk free phase)
The idea:
How NC Zones WorkHey,
Why not share some knowledge while we at it.
I've been trading these zones for many years now..
If you want to understand them, it starts like this;
Look for imbalances (new capital indicator find it for free)
Make sure the imbalance is engulfed.
Draw in a zone.. (Called the imbalance zone)
Now see if this imbalance zone achieved something...
Like taking out a trendline zone.. or taking out a trend.
Happy studying :)
Happy wknd,
Max
Quick Tutorial of the Time @ Mode MethodHey, guys! Just wanted to cover a quick review of the Time @ Mode method that we use to analyze and set up potential trades in the Key Hidden Levels chat room here on TradingView. If you have any questions, feel free to comment, or join us over at Key Hidden Levels! Using NASDAQ:QUBT as the example here.
Hope you enjoy, and best of luck out there!
Dollar's Rise, Gold's Demise◉ Abstract
The US Dollar Index (DXY) and gold prices have a historically inverse correlation, with a stronger dollar typically reducing gold demand. Key drivers of this relationship include inflation, geopolitical tensions, and interest rates. With a 73-95% negative correlation observed over time, investors should note the current market outlook: the DXY is poised to break out above 107, potentially surging to 114, while gold prices may drop 5% to 2,400 and then 2,300. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for making informed investment decisions and capitalizing on potential trading opportunities.
◉ Introduction
The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and gold prices is significant and typically characterized by an inverse correlation. Understanding this relationship is crucial for investors and traders in the gold market.
◉ U.S. Dollar Index Overview
The U.S. Dollar Index measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. It serves as an indicator of the dollar's strength or weakness in global markets. When the index rises, it indicates that the dollar is gaining value relative to these currencies, while a decline suggests a weakening dollar.
◉ Inverse Relationship with Gold Prices
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars on international markets, which directly influences its price based on fluctuations in the dollar's value:
● Strengthening Dollar: When the DXY index increases, it generally leads to a decrease in gold prices. This occurs because a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for investors using other currencies, thereby reducing demand.
● Weakening Dollar: Conversely, when the DXY index falls, gold prices tend to rise. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign investors, increasing its demand and driving up prices.
Research indicates that this inverse relationship has been consistent over time, particularly in long-term trends. For instance, historical data shows that gold prices often rise when the dollar depreciates, reflecting a negative correlation of approximately 73% to 95% over various time intervals.
◉ Short-Term Deviations
While the long-term trend supports this inverse relationship, short-term anomalies can occur under specific market conditions. For example, during periods of extreme volatility or economic uncertainty, gold and the dollar may exhibit a positive correlation temporarily as both assets are sought after as safe havens. This behaviour can confuse investors who expect the typical inverse relationship to hold.
◉ Additional Influencing Factors
Several other factors also affect gold prices beyond the dollar's strength:
● Inflation: Rising inflation often leads investors to flock to gold as a hedge against currency devaluation.
➖ E.g. In 2022, as inflation rates surged to 9.1%, demand for gold increased by 12% year-over-year, pushing prices higher. Historical data shows that during periods of high inflation from 1974 to 2008, gold prices rose by an average of 14.9% annually.
● Geopolitical Events: Uncertainty from geopolitical tensions can drive demand for gold regardless of dollar fluctuations.
➖ E.g. In late 2023, escalating conflicts such as the Israel-Palestine situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war contributed to a surge in gold prices, with reports indicating increases of over 3% in a week due to these tensions
● Interest Rates: When the Fed raises interest rates, it typically strengthens the dollar as higher yields attract foreign capital. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand.
➖ E.g. During the Federal Reserve's rate hikes from March 2022 to early 2023, many investors moved away from gold as they sought higher returns from bonds and other fixed-income securities. This shift contributed to downward pressure on gold prices during that period.
◉ Technical Standings
● U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY
The US Dollar Index has been stuck in neutral for two years. But if it clears the 107 hurdle, get ready for a surge to 114.
● Gold Spot/USD OANDA:XAUUSD
➖ Gold prices skyrocketed to 2,790, then plunged. Expect a 5% drop to 2,400. If that support cracks, 2,300 is the next safety net.
Consistency in DNA #7ONLY THE GAME CAN TEACH YOU THE GAME
You have to go through this learning curve to learn everything thats along the way, but with some time you start to realise that you have to unlearn a lot of things that you have learnt, because there's a lot of wrong advice on the internet. You have to go through this internet and learn on your own skin what is right and wrong, and then find your own best way of trading that suits you best. When youre gonna watch something about trading, some educational - remember to keep open heart and listen to inner voice who is maybe telling you that what youre watching is b*ll sh*t.
~ AS Malone
Long-Term Investment: Building Wealth for the FutureHave you ever thought about the astounding fact that the S&P 500 has achieved approximately a 10% average annual return over the last ninety years? This statistic serves as a powerful reminder of the effectiveness of long-term investment strategies for accumulating wealth. In contrast to short-term trading, long-term investing emphasizes the gradual growth of your financial assets through the benefits of compounding returns and the overall growth of the market.
Yearly Chart of the S&P 500
For individuals seeking financial security and stability, embracing a long-term investment approach is essential. This strategy involves holding onto investments—such as stocks, bonds, or real estate—over extended periods, enabling them to endure market volatility and benefit from economic growth. By concentrating on long-term objectives, you establish a strong foundation for sustainable wealth, making it suitable for those in pursuit of financial independence and a prosperous future.
Grasping the fundamentals of long-term investing and applying effective strategies can help you sidestep impulsive decisions and distractions associated with short-term market movements, keeping your attention focused on achieving lasting wealth.
- The Importance of Long-Term Investments for Wealth Creation -
Long-term investments are crucial for wealth creation, primarily because of the advantages of compound returns. Compounding allows your initial returns to generate further earnings, leading to exponential growth over time. The longer you stay invested, the more substantial the effects of compound interest become, facilitating significant wealth accumulation.
Consider this example: if you invest $10,000 at an 8% annual interest rate, at the end of the first year, your investment will grow to $10,800. In the following year, interest is calculated on $10,800 rather than the original $10,000, boosting the total to $11,664. Over decades, this compounding phenomenon can lead to remarkable increases in wealth, underscoring the effectiveness of long-term investments.
In addition to the benefits of compounding, long-term investments help mitigate risk. While short-term market fluctuations can be erratic, historical evidence shows that markets generally trend upward over time. Holding investments over more extended periods allows you to ride out volatility and avoid rash decisions during downturns. This approach encourages a mindset of patience and commitment, reducing the likelihood of common errors, like panic selling during market declines.
Achieving success in long-term wealth accumulation requires a disciplined approach—sticking to your investment plan despite market fluctuations. Coupled with the advantages of compound interest, long-term investing becomes a dependable pathway toward financial growth and the fulfillment of your aspirations.
- Key Long-Term Investment Options -
When considering your options for long-term investments, it's imperative to assess choices based on your risk tolerance, growth prospects, and their alignment with your broader financial strategy. Here are several proven avenues for long-term investors to explore:
1 - Stock Market
The stock market is a favorite among long-term investors, offering multiple avenues for wealth-building. Index funds and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are particularly appealing due to their broad market exposure. Index funds are designed to track major indices such as the S&P 500, which has historically provided an average annual return of around 10% over the past nine decades. These funds are not only cost-effective but also inherently diversified, making them an excellent choice for novice investors and experienced portfolios alike.
ETFs share many similarities with index funds but offer more flexibility as they can be traded like individual stocks. For those inclined to take a more active role, investing in individual stocks can be rewarding, provided thorough research is conducted and a focus is maintained on companies with strong growth potential. However, it's essential to balance investments in individual stocks with safer alternatives, especially within a long-term strategy.
2 - Real Estate
Real estate represents another robust option for long-term investing, known for generating consistent returns through property appreciation and rental income. It provides a tangible asset, generating ongoing cash flow and serving as a hedge against inflation. Historically, property values have shown a tendency to increase over time, making real estate a fundamental piece of many long-term wealth-building strategies.
Investing in real estate can take various forms, such as acquiring residential or commercial properties, or investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), which allow for real estate investment without the need for direct management. Leveraging real estate through mortgages can maximize its potential as a long-term wealth generator, although it’s crucial to consider associated costs like property maintenance and taxes.
Key factors to consider when investing in real estate include location, property condition, and prevailing market trends. Properties situated in high-demand or growing areas usually appreciate at a faster rate and tend to attract more reliable tenants. Understanding local market dynamics and regulations can enhance your investment decisions and outcomes.
3 - Bonds
Bonds are often regarded as the safety net within an investment portfolio, providing stable and fixed income, along with lower volatility compared to stocks. They are well-suited for investors who prioritize security or are approaching retirement. Government bonds, such as U.S. Treasury bonds, are typically the safest option but come with lower yields, while corporate bonds offer higher returns but carry additional risks.
Incorporating bonds into your investment portfolio can help cushion against stock market fluctuations, ensuring steady returns and protection from extreme volatility. For beginners, bonds can particularly aid in maintaining portfolio stability over time.
When considering bonds, it’s essential to evaluate the issuer's credit rating, as this significantly influences the bond's risk profile. Higher-rated bonds (e.g., AAA) tend to be less risky but offer lower returns, while lower-rated bonds (e.g., junk bonds) may yield higher returns at an elevated risk. Diversifying your bond holdings across different issuers and maturities can also aid in risk management.
4- Retirement Accounts (401(k), IRAs)
Retirement accounts such as 401(k)s and IRAs are vital for accumulating wealth in a tax-efficient manner. These accounts afford substantial tax benefits: contributions to traditional IRAs and 401(k)s are tax-deductible, with earnings growing tax-deferred until retirement. Roth IRAs necessitate after-tax contributions, enabling tax-free withdrawals in retirement.
Retirement accounts facilitate consistent investing over decades, capitalizing on employer matching programs available with 401(k)s. This type of compounding can transform modest contributions into significant sums, making retirement accounts a crucial vehicle for long-term financial success.
When utilizing retirement accounts, it’s important to contemplate your retirement timeline and the investment options within these accounts. Traditional accounts may be advantageous for those expecting to be in a lower tax bracket during retirement, while Roth accounts could benefit individuals anticipating higher tax burdens in the future. Regular reviews and adjustments based on your investment goals and risk tolerance are also essential.
- Crafting a Long-Term Investment Strategy -
Creating a long-term investment strategy entails careful planning and steadfast execution. Whether you are embarking on your investment journey or refining an existing plan, these steps will guide you towards sustainable financial growth:
1- Define Your Financial Goals and Assess Risk Tolerance
Before diving into investments, outlining your financial objectives and understanding your risk tolerance are critical. Clarify what you aim to achieve—be it retirement preparation, purchasing a home, or funding education. Clearly defined goals will steer your investment choices and help you remain focused during market fluctuations.
Equally important is gauging your risk appetite. Younger investors typically have the flexibility to take on more risk, while those nearing retirement may gravitate towards conservative strategies that emphasize capital preservation through bonds and lower-risk assets.
For instance, if you aim to retire in 30 years, a portfolio with a heavier allocation to stocks may be appropriate, given their potential for higher returns despite short-term volatility. Conversely, those closer to retirement may want to shift towards bonds and dividend-paying stocks to reduce risk while ensuring a consistent income.
2- Diversify Your Portfolio
Diversification is an integral aspect of any long-term investment strategy. It involves allocating your investments across different asset classes—stocks, bonds, and real estate—to mitigate risk. By diversifying, you shield your portfolio from the detrimental effects of poor performance in any one area.
For example, if equities suffer during an economic downturn, your bond or real estate investments may yield positive returns, buffering against significant losses. This balanced approach is key to navigating market volatility and enhancing overall performance.
Additionally, consider diversifying within asset classes. In the stock segment, this may involve investing in various sectors and industries. For bonds, diversification means holding an array of types with varied maturities and credit ratings. A well-structured portfolio could include a mix of domestic and international stocks, government and corporate bonds, in addition to real estate investments. By broadening your investments across asset classes and geographical areas, you effectively mitigate risks tied to any single investment or market.
3- Implement Dollar-Cost Averaging
Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy that entails investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, independent of market conditions. This approach allows you to buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when they are high, gradually reducing your average cost per share over time.
This method helps mitigate the emotional impact of market volatility, proving particularly beneficial for novice investors. By focusing on the long-term while minimizing the effects of short-term fluctuations, dollar-cost averaging can promote the growth of your wealth.
To optimize dollar-cost averaging, consider setting up automatic contributions to your investment accounts. This ensures consistent investment practices and makes it easier to resist impulsive decisions based on market activity.
4-Regularly Rebalance Your Investments
Over time, some of your investments may outperform others, resulting in your portfolio shifting away from its intended allocation. For example, if stocks exceed bonds in performance, your portfolio may become skewed toward equities. To maintain your desired risk profile, it is crucial to periodically rebalance your investments.
Rebalancing involves selling portions of assets that have performed well and reinvesting the proceeds into underperforming assets, thus maintaining your risk tolerance and capturing growth opportunities in undervalued investments. Keeping your portfolio aligned with your long-term strategy fosters steady financial growth.
Establish a rebalancing schedule that corresponds with your investment style and market conditions. Some investors may opt to rebalance annually, while others might prefer quarterly or semi-annual adjustments. Additionally, consider rebalancing in response to significant market changes or personal circumstances that impact your financial goals or risk appetite.
5- Review and Refine Your Strategy
Long-term investing necessitates ongoing attention. Regularly reviewing your portfolio, monitoring performance, and adjusting your strategy according to shifts in your goals or market conditions can help keep your investments aligned with your objectives. Conducting yearly reviews or quarterly assessments enables you to stay on track and make informed decisions.
Monitoring entails evaluating how your investments stack up against your goals and making adjustments when necessary. For instance, if there’s a substantial change in your risk tolerance due to major life events such as marriage or retirement, you may need to alter your asset allocation accordingly.
Stay updated on market trends and economic indicators that may influence your investments. While it’s important to avoid overreacting to short-term market changes, being informed allows you to make educated decisions and adapt your strategy when the situation demands it.
By adhering to these principles and embracing a long-term perspective, you can lay the groundwork for substantial wealth accumulation and financial independence in the future.
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DOGE/USDt: Famous Pattern Indicates Continuation To The Upside Falling peaks and rising valleys have built famous Triangle pattern
on the hourly chart of DOGE/USDt.
It's a consolidation after a big rally, which means more upside move is ahead.
Watch the price to break out of the pattern.
The target is located at the widest part of Triangle added to the break point.
Its located at 0.533
Breakdown of Triangle would invalidate the pattern.
RSI has managed to keep above the neutral point during this consolidation.
This supports the idea of further move to the upside
Intraday Trading SuccessAs a trader, I've developed my edge mostly by combining price action momentum, risk and asset sentiment, and currency strength for intraday trading success. Here's how it works:
1️⃣ Price Action Momentum: By analyzing chart patterns, candlestick formations, price structure and trend dynamics, I can spot price action momentum. These observations reveal preferable intraday direction for high-probability trades.
2️⃣ Gauging Risk Sentiment: Keeping a keen eye on market sentiment helps me understand the broader risk appetite and the tone for any specific currency that session. Risk-on or risk-off sentiment impacts forex pairs differently, also guiding my trade selection.
3️⃣ Currency Strength Analysis: I assess currency strength using various tools like currency strength meters (available for free all over the place) and relative sentiment strength. Strong currencies are paired with weak ones for optimal intraday trend trades and being on the lookout for any divergence from baseline sentiment provides great mean reversion opportunities too.
4️⃣ Confluence of Factors: I look for confluence, where price action momentum aligns with favorable sentiment and robust currency strength. This trifecta enhances trade confidence and conviction. Then it's all about the right technical entries.
5️⃣ Timeframe Synergy: I try to ensure harmony between short-term and higher timeframe trends when selecting a preferred bias. My intraday setups align with the broader market direction for more robust trades but the time horizon for the trade idea still dictates what timeframe data I give more weight to.
6️⃣ Gains Optimization: By utilizing damage control techniques and setting realistic take-profit levels based on price action and key support/resistance zones, I optimize gains expectancy for better risk management. Risk-reward is another mainstream cookie-cutter influencer-regurgitated pile of dung I have never paid attention to in over 10 years of successful trading; we have gains potential and risk management and as long as these line up according to your rule-set, the RR means nada de nada.
7️⃣ Continuous Learning: I remain a student and continuously learn from my trades and market developments. Adapting to changing conditions is vital for sustainable trading success.
Combining price action momentum, sentiment, and currency strength has transformed my intraday trading game over the years. This approach allows me to spot high-probability setups, manage risk, and ride markets.
Using Derivatives for Hedging Risks on ForexUsing Derivatives for Hedging Risks on Forex
In the dynamic world of forex trading, understanding how to protect one's position is paramount. This article delves into the strategic use of derivatives, specifically CFDs, to hedge against potential adverse currency movements, offering traders a safety net in the volatile forex environment.
The Concept of Hedging in Forex
Hedging, in the realm of forex trading, refers to the strategic use of certain financial instruments, such as derivatives, to protect an investment or portfolio from adverse price movements. By employing this technique, market participants can potentially offset losses from their primary investments, ensuring a more balanced financial outcome.
Companies that use derivatives to hedge risk, for example, aim to safeguard their operations from volatile currency fluctuations. For individual traders, hedging risk with derivatives becomes a key tactic, especially in the unpredictable waters of forex markets. The primary goal isn't necessarily to profit but to create a safety net against potential losses.
An Overview of CFDs (Contract for Difference)
CFDs, or Contracts for Difference, are derivative financial instruments that allow traders to speculate on price movements of underlying assets without actually owning them. In the forex context, CFDs enable traders to gain exposure to currency pairs' price changes without physically exchanging the currencies involved. Instead, traders enter into a contract to exchange the difference in value of a currency pair between the time the contract is opened and when it's closed.
One of the primary uses of derivatives in risk management is employing CFDs to take an opposing position, thereby potentially reducing exposure to adverse market movements. The perks of CFDs include flexibility, leverage, and the ability to go long or short. However, these benefits come with downsides, such as the risk of amplified losses due to leverage and the possibility of incurring additional costs like overnight funding fees.
The Mechanics of Hedging with CFDs
The mechanics of hedging forex trades with CFDs are the following:
1. Establishing a Primary Position
Traders first establish a primary position in the forex market, predicting a currency pair's direction. For instance, a trader might expect the EUR/USD pair to rise and hence buy or "go long" on it.
2. Recognising Exposure
Once the primary position is established, traders identify potential risks. Is there an impending economic event? Could geopolitical tensions influence the currency pair's movement? Recognising these exposures is pivotal in hedging using derivatives.
3. Taking an Opposing CFD Position
To hedge, traders take an opposing position using a CFD. If our trader has gone long on the EUR/USD, hedging would involve going short on the same pair through a CFD. This doesn't mean expecting the EUR/USD to fall but rather creating a protective stance using derivatives to hedge risk.
Another option is to use a negatively correlated asset from another asset class, e.g. commodities, to the currency pair you trade and open a CFD trade in that asset.
4. Monitoring and Adjusting
Successful hedging isn't a set-and-forget approach. As the forex market fluctuates, the effectiveness of the hedge might change. Platforms like FXOpen's TickTrader provide traders with the necessary tools and real-time data to monitor their positions effectively.
If the primary position experiences an unfavourable move, the opposing CFD position can offset some or all of those losses. Conversely, if the market moves favourably, gains from the primary position can be realised, while the loss from the hedging position is an accepted cost for protection.
5. Closing Positions
When traders believe the risk has subsided or their trading goals are achieved, they can close both their primary and hedging positions. Depending on the market movement, this could result in a net profit, a minimised loss, or a break-even scenario.
In the world of derivatives and risk management, CFDs offer a nuanced tool for traders navigating the often-tumultuous waters of the forex market. When executed correctly, hedging with derivatives, like CFDs, can provide a layer of protection against unwanted market swings.
A Brief Look at Options
Options are a type of financial derivative that gives traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price within a specified time frame. Unlike CFDs, which track the underlying asset's movement, options are based on the probability of reaching a particular price point.
While they can be used for hedging purposes, their complexity often deters many retail traders. The steep learning curve associated with options means they're not typically the first choice for risk mitigation, especially when simpler derivatives like CFDs are available.
Considerations Before Hedging with Derivatives
Before implementing hedging strategies using derivatives, traders take into account several crucial aspects to ensure their risk management tactics align optimally with their financial objectives. Here are some essential considerations:
Understanding the Derivative's Structure
Before diving into hedging, it's crucial to thoroughly understand the derivative you're using, whether it's a CFD, option, or another instrument. Each derivative has unique features, payout structures, and costs. A lack of understanding can lead to unintended exposures.
If you use derivatives, it's vital to determine the position size, as leverage leads to increased risks. The theory states that a trader’s CFD position shouldn't be larger than the trade they hedge.
Cost Implications
While hedging can safeguard against potential losses, it's not free. Factors like spread costs, overnight financing, leverage, or premiums (in the case of options) can impact the profitability of a hedged position. Traders factor these costs into their risk management calculations.
Duration of Hedge
How long do you anticipate the need for the hedge? The time frame can affect the choice of derivative and its cost. Some hedges might be short-lived due to specific events, while others could be more extended due to ongoing market uncertainties.
Effectiveness of the Hedge
No hedge is perfect. Consider the effectiveness of the derivative in relation to the primary position. How closely does the CFD or option's performance correlate with the asset you're trying to hedge?
Regular Evaluation
Risk management in the derivatives market requires constant vigilance. Market conditions evolve, and what was once an effective hedge might lose its potency. Regularly evaluate the hedge's performance and adjust if necessary.
Seek Expert Advice
Given the complexities, it's beneficial to seek advice from experts and explore in-depth resources. They can offer help in crafting a more tailored hedging strategy.
The Bottom Line
In navigating the intricate waters of forex trading, understanding hedging with derivatives like CFDs can offer traders valuable protection against unforeseen market shifts. This exploration has highlighted the nuances and considerations essential for effective risk management. For those keen to delve deeper into the world of CFDs and optimise their hedging strategies, opening an FXOpen account could be the next step in fortifying their trading arsenal.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The Hidden Risk of Complacency in TradingWhen markets show strong trends, especially bullish ones, it’s easy to feel reassured that prices will keep going up.
This was what we saw in the gold market in October , where traders are confident and optimistic about continued upward movement.
Yet this very confidence can mask a significant risk for traders: the risk of complacency.
What is Complacency in Trading?
In trading, complacency is the state where traders grow overly comfortable with the direction of the market, often assuming that current trends will continue. This mindset can lead to a relaxation of caution and due diligence, causing traders to overlook potential risks. Instead of evaluating trades with a fresh perspective, complacent traders may focus more on profit potential than on risk.
Why Complacency Can Be Dangerous
Complacency is particularly dangerous in trading because markets are unpredictable and often experience shifts just when traders feel the most comfortable.
As the saying goes, “The market takes the stairs up and the elevator down.”
When complacency takes hold, traders may enter positions without fully considering risks, increasing the potential for significant losses if a sudden reversal occurs.
Take the gold market as an example...
However, this positive sentiment could be a setup for a downside reversal. Traders who enter positions at elevated prices may find themselves exposed if the market corrects. The potential rewards for going long at these high levels may not be enough to offset the risks of a pullback.
Recognizing Signs of Complacency
To avoid falling into the trap of complacency, traders should look for certain behaviors, both in themselves and the market:
Over-optimism in Market Sentiment: When traders broadly believe in an upward trend and are unwilling to consider downside risks, it’s often a warning sign.
Entering Trades Without Proper Risk Assessment: If the main driver behind a trade is FOMO rather than sound analysis, there’s a chance complacency is at play.
Ignoring Key Technical Signals: Complacent traders may disregard signals suggesting a potential reversal, like overbought indicators or failure to sustain new highs.
How to Stay Vigilant Against Complacency
Prioritize Risk Management: In every trade, evaluate risk first. A key to success is considering what could go wrong and setting stop-loss levels accordingly.
Evaluate Reward-to-Risk Ratios: Before entering a position, assess if the potential reward justifies the risk. For instance, entering a long position in a bullish market may appear promising, but it’s vital to ensure that the entry point doesn’t carry excessive downside risk.
Watch for Reversal Indicators: Look for technical indicators that might signal an impending reversal.
Adopt a Patient, Wait-and-See Approach: When a market shows strong upward momentum, it’s often wise to hold back and look for better entry points rather than rushing in at a peak. Exercising patience can lead to far more rewarding opportunities.
The Bottom Line
Complacency can be the silent risk in trading, especially when markets show strong trends. By recognizing the dangers of complacency and implementing strategies to guard against it, traders can protect themselves from entering trades with unbalanced risk.
Instead of getting swept up in bullish sentiment, stay grounded in a cautious, strategic approach that considers both potential gains and possible setbacks.
In this way, you not only preserve your capital but also position yourself to capture more meaningful market moves in the long run.
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part Two - PullbackOur core belief in ARZ Trading System: Trading, is to have an "expectation" from the market. If not, at any movement, the trader will be confused! If you look at the market and don't have any expectations, don't trade! In a future article, we will discuss what to do if an expectation is not met.
In the case of Pullback, Price is not a ball, and EMA (or any other kind of S&R) is not a brick wall, especially in this case.
If you put an EMA with any period, you'll see that the price crosses it easily most of the time! Then, it might come back as a shadow or a Fake Breakout. This means we should have a confirmation system for accepting or rejecting a Pullback. Otherwise, we'll always see a pullback shaping!
Key Note 1: the higher the EMA period is, the longer will take for a pullback to shape!
Key Note 2: Never trust and trade based on just one S&R level! Always have at least 2 or 3 levels to confirm your pullback. Either in a classical way by drawing trendlines and channels, or using any kind of Indicator as a means of dynamic S&R level.
Key Note 3: a flat EMA is supposed to break easily! If not, it'll reject the price strongly. It means we have to wait for what will happen at a flat EMA to decide what to do next or expect the price will breach it (Please refer to article part one).
Key Note 4: An ascending EMA can only act as a support, and a descending one acts as a resistance, not the other way! This is critical, believe me!
Accepted ways of confirming a pullback in the ARZ System are:
1. Wait for a strong reversal pattern to shape at S&R. Never jump the gun!
2. Use a Volume Indicator like WAE (Waddah Attar Explosion) to confirm your entry at the S&R level.
In this chart:
- Pullback #1 (Bearish Engulfing) is not accepted, because it's just based on one S&R (13EMA) and the reversal pattern closed near the support of MC.
- Pullback #2 (Bullish Engulfing) is strong but closed near 100EMA. Can't trust it.
- Pullback #3 is awesome! This is a multi-candle Evening Star (Key Note 1&2), of 100EMA & Resistance of UTP & MC.
- Pullback #4 is again good but has closed near the low of MC and is risky to take.
SPY Day Trading Using @mwrightinc Indicators Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime. In this video, I explain how I use 4 free TradingView indicators to identify entries on SPY.
There is a lot of information out there about creating support and resistance zones. But, drawing reliable ones only comes with experience. In my 3 years of options trading and indicator building, I've found a few patterns that seem to work pretty reliably with SPY.
Order blocks, and SPY price levels at $2.50 increments, are 2 of the most predictable. To capture price movements based on these, I explain how I use the QQQ and SPY Price Levels and Magic Order Blocks indicators with SPY options and /MES futures trading.
Additionally, volume weighted average price (VWAP), plays an important role every day because institutional (large) investors commonly use it for entries and exits. It is a great gauge of daily trends. ATR bands (also known as Keltner Channels) can also provide an at-a-glance look at what can be expected of price action in the near future.
To monitor these, I explain how I use the ATR Bands (Keltner Channels) SRSI and Wick Signals and Multi VWAP indicators. Specifically, how they were used on the 11/13/2024 Trading day.
All of the indicators are free and open source, and were built with the goal of making everyone a better trader. I hope you find the content useful.
- Mo
Mark Douglas’ Guide to Trading Without EmotionDue to the critical role psychology plays in trading success, I’d like to share a summary of The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas. This book dives into the mental and emotional skills required for consistent and profitable trading, revealing the mindset needed to stay calm, disciplined, and focused in the markets. Here’s a brief overview of its key insights.
1. Importance of Trader Psychology
Douglas believes that success in financial markets depends more on mindset than on complex strategies. Emotional control and mental discipline are key to avoiding losses.
2. Embracing Risk and Market Rules
The book emphasizes risk acceptance. Traders must understand each trade is uncertain and only one possible outcome in a probability field. Douglas advises establishing clear rules and following them without exception.
3. Taking Full Responsibility
Douglas insists that traders are fully responsible for their market outcomes. Avoiding blame and excuses, traders should own every decision they make.
4. Building a Success-Oriented Mindset
Douglas explains how to create a mental framework that enables traders to make unbiased, emotion-free decisions based on market trends and signals, avoiding fear and greed.
5. Stress Management and Maintaining Calm
The book highlights managing stress and staying calm under pressure. Douglas suggests using mindfulness and focus techniques to stay composed and make sound decisions.
Consistency in DNA #4Not every day is trading day - BIG THREE
When we start this journey to become successful trader, he hear a lot of b*ll sh*t. People are selling courses, signals or mentorships trying to make money off of you. I think there are very little people that are actually real and honest, and just wanna help you. I'm one of the resistance side after getting to know my mentor SCI - from IG tradesbysci - who changed my trading career and I decided to continue his legacy. Maybe some day I will get to do party with him thanks to this XD
Die rich or die trying - OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:NAS100USD OANDA:US30USD
~AS
Possible Redistribution in UBER..!What is Wykoff Distribution Analysis?
Wykoff Distribution Analysis is a technical methodology developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century. It focuses on studying the distribution of trading volume and price action to identify potential support, resistance, and accumulation/distribution phases in a market.
The key principles of Wykoff Distribution Analysis are:
Volume Precedes Price: Trading volume changes often precede price direction changes. Analyzing volume patterns can provide clues about the underlying forces driving the market.
Climactic Events: Climactic volume spikes, either up or down, often mark important turning points in a trend. These are seen as "distribution" or "accumulation" events.
Phases of Activity: Markets tend to go through identifiable phases, such as:
Accumulation: A period of consolidation and gradual price increase on lighter volume.
Mark-Up: A strong uptrend phase on increasing volume.
Distribution: A period of consolidation and gradual price decrease on lighter volume.
Mark-Down: A strong downtrend phase on increasing volume.
Composite Operator: Wyckoff theorized the existence of a "Composite Operator" - a single, dominant entity (or group of entities) that controls the market's overall direction.
Applying Wykoff Analysis to Redistribution
Wykoff Distribution Analysis can be particularly useful for identifying potential redistribution phases in a market. Redistribution occurs when the "smart money" sells to the "dumb money" at the end of an uptrend. Some key signs of redistribution include:
Decreasing volume on up days, increasing volume on down days
Climactic volume spikes at market highs
A series of higher highs and lower lows form a distribution pattern
Divergences between price and momentum indicators
By identifying these distribution patterns, traders can look to enter short positions or reduce long exposure as the market transitions from an uptrend to a downtrend phase.
Advanced Trend Analysis in SMC Smart Money Concept Trading Forex
In this article, we will discuss how to execute advanced market trend analysis with smart money concept trading.
I will teach you how to identify long-term, mid-term and minor trend and how to apply trend analysis in making predictions and trading.
First, let me briefly remind you the basic rules of a trend analysis in SMC trading.
We say that the market is bullish if there are at least 2 bullish impulses with 2 higher highs and a retracement leg between them with a higher low.
The market is bearish if there are at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 lower lows and a retracement leg between them with a lower high.
If the conditions for a bullish or a bearish trend are not met, we say that the market is consolidating .
Bullish violation of the last higher high in a bullish trend is called a Break of Structure BoS.
Bearish violation of the last higher low in a bullish trend is called a Change of Character CHoCH.
Bearish violation of the last lower low in a bearish trend is called a Break of Structure BoS.
Bullish violation of the last lower high in a bearish trend is called a Change of Character CHoCH.
BoS signifies a trend continuation.
CHoCH signifies a trend violation.
In order to apply these rules on a price chart, we perceive the market movements as the set of impulse and retracement legs.
However, with such a method of analysis a big question arises: what is exactly is the impulse leg, how strong and long it should be. Which price fluctuations can be a part of the impulse and which should be excluded.
Look at the example above. A price action on AUDCAD can be perceived as one single bullish impulse or a combination of 3 bullish impulses and retracements and a combination of multiple impulses and retracements.
Which way of analysis is correct?
The fact is that the price action analysis on each chart is correct . The only difference between them is the perspective .
From a long-term perspective , the entire price movement on the chart is a one single impulse.
From a mid-term perspective , it is the market that is trading in a bullish trend in 3 bullish impulses.
From a short-term perspective , it is the market that is trading in a bullish trend and started to consolidate and trade in sideways for some time, resuming the growth then.
With advanced SMC trend analysis, you should learn to perceive a price chart not only as a combination of impulse and retracement legs, but also as a combination of long-term, mid-term and short-term trends and movements.
Depending on your trading style, such a reasoning can be applied on any time frame.
Look at AUDJPY pair on an hourly time frame.
From a long-term perspective, the pair is trading in a bearish trend.
Studying in details the last bullish impulse, we can perceive it as a minor bullish trend with its confirmed violation after a Change of Character.
Let's discuss another example.
EURNZD is trading in a clear long-term bullish trend on a daily.
Zooming in the chart, we can also analyze the last bullish impulse in a long-term bullish trend as a mid-term bullish trend.
At the same time, if we analyze the recent minor movements, we can spot a confirmed minor bearish trade on the pair.
Why do we need such an in-depth market trend analysis?
Always remember that a global trend is always born from a minor trend. Minor trend analysis will help you to identify local reversal, trend following signals much earlier.
The fact that EURNZD started to trade in a minor bearish trend, being globally bullish, can be an important warning sign for us.
You can see that after some time the pair started to fall rapidly.
A minor bearish trend continued, a mid-term bullish trend was violated and a correction started in a global bullish trend.
Your ability to correctly analyze different market perspectives is essential for making accurate predictions.
The trend analysis rules and events that we discussed are more than enough for successful trading any time frame and any market.
Study trend analysis, learn to identify global, mid-term and minor trend and good luck in your trading.
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