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BTC Bulls vs Bears – Critical Level Tested, What’s Next?🚀📈 BTC Bulls vs Bears – Critical Level Tested, What’s Next? 🐂🐻 Hi everyone! New day, new charts – and once again, our levels played out beautifully! 🎯 The 102,777 zone was the battleground, and after nearly 40 price interactions at that level, the bulls took control. However, all is not settled yet! We are currently observing multiple divergences across key indicators: 📉 MACD 📉 Histogram 📉 RSI 📉 MOM (Momentum) 📉 MFI This suggests caution despite the bullish momentum. My expectation is for a retest of the 102,777 level, which remains the key decision point. Here’s the updated probability outlook: ➡️ 65% chance we push higher toward the next target at 105,962, with sights ultimately set on 113,000. ⬅️ 35% chance we see a rejection and head lower. Keep an eye on these key levels: ⚔️ 102,777 – The battleground (Bulls vs Bears) 📌 105,962 – Next target 🎯 113,000 – Ultimate target Before I wrap up, even on the 8-hour chart, there are signs of divergences, so let’s stay sharp and move carefully. Step by step, we’ll navigate this market together! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 ps. WE ARE STAYING LONG! OK?
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by FX_Professor
USA-UK: Trade Agreement and Impact Hello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the meeting that will take place today, May 9, 2025, between the USA and the UK. The announcement of a new trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom by Donald Trump has immediately attracted the attention of global investors. Its economic scope could have significant repercussions on the main currencies, in particular on the GBP/USD pair. The components of the agreement and the reactions of the markets According to initial information, the agreement aims to strengthen trade relations between Washington and London, simplifying regulations on goods and services, reducing duties and incentivizing bilateral investments. Immediate impact on the pound (GBP) The GBP/USD pair has shown an initial reaction of volatility, with investors evaluating the details of the new agreement. If the agreement leads to greater economic stability and growth in the United Kingdom, the pound could benefit from a bullish trend in the short term. However, some analysts warn that the pound could suffer from more in-depth negotiations in the future, especially if the deal puts renewed pressure on UK financial markets. The US dollar and the Fed’s monetary policy The deal comes amid economic uncertainty in the US, with the Federal Reserve monitoring inflation and growth. If bilateral trade between the US and UK were to expand significantly, it could have a positive effect on the dollar’s ​​strength, even against other currencies. Economic sectors involved and impact on FX The deal could affect several sectors: Energy and raw materials: If trade in natural gas or oil between the two countries increases, it could have an impact on commodity futures and therefore on currencies linked to these markets, such as the CAD and AUD. Technology and financial services: Expanded cooperation between technology and financial firms could attract investment on Wall Street and support the dollar. Manufacturing and Exports: If the UK manages to secure favorable export terms, the pound could see increased demand in Forex. Outlook In the short term, the deal could lead to increased volatility in GBP/USD as investors await further details. In the long term, much will depend on the economic policies that follow the deal and the effects on the trade balances of the two countries. Forex market analysts will continue to monitor investor reaction and future statements from the governments involved.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Leo XIV: Impact on the Forex Market Hello, I am Forex trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the election of the New Pope. The election of a new Pope is an event with implications not only religious and social, but also economic. With the rise of Leo XIV, the financial world is closely watching the possible repercussions on global currencies and investment strategies. Immediate effects on Forex volatility Historically, major political and institutional events can generate fluctuations in international currencies. Italy, home to the Vatican, could see movements on the EUR/USD pair, especially based on the first statements of the new Pontiff regarding the economic policies of the Vatican. Some investors may react with initial caution, leading to temporary volatility in the Forex market, similar to what happens during political elections or other leadership transitions. However, this volatility could be limited in the short term, unless Leo XIV announces substantial changes in the management of the Vatican finances. Vatican Financial Policies and Their Impact on Currencies The Vatican holds significant wealth, with real estate investments and stakes in international companies. If the new Pope decides to adopt a more transparent or ethical strategy in his investments, this could influence the financial sector, prompting global funds to review their investment strategies. EUR/USD and the Role of the ECB: Possible Vatican interventions on economic and social policies in Europe could prompt the ECB to assess the macroeconomic picture more carefully. Safe Haven Currencies (CHF, JPY, Gold): If the election generates economic uncertainty, we could see an increase in investments in safe haven assets, such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). Economic Sectors Impacted Ethical Finance and ESG: If Leo XIV emphasizes the importance of sustainable investments, companies linked to the ESG sector could see increased interest and capital inflows. Real Estate: With the Vatican being one of Europe’s largest property owners, any reforms in asset management could have repercussions on real estate markets, influencing the value of the EUR and other related assets.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
2
PEPE - This is why price explode - Speed Index ReadingThere is always a reason why price explodes either true or fake. The criteria to look at are: - Location - very important - where is the price locate - higher probability trades accomplished when the price leaves a significant location such us Fib, Sup/Res, AVWAP - The volume waves - nothing moves without volume - sometimes is not so visible by the volume waves alone because they distribute or accumulate little by little, that's why we have Speed Index - Reading Speed Index - The proper entry signal In the attached chart I will demonstrate how I read it using the above criteria (annotations are in sync with the chart): 1. Price entering Fib Area 50-61.8 - possibility of buyers to come in 2. Price touching AVWAP (three blue lines) coming from the bottom of a previous swing acting as resistance - another possibility of buyers to come in. 3. Speed Index 6.4, that's an abnormal speed index , that what I call first push up or PU, price never drops below the beginning of this wave 4. Speed Index 11.1, that's another abnormal speed index and that's what I call a hard to move down (HTMD) . What's happening here is that all the sell orders are absorbed by buy orders and price breaks on the up wave the origin of the HTMD wave. 5. Finally the entry Long with a PRL (Plutus Reversal Long) signal an up,up,up, we go!!! I hope my years of work helps you out on reading charts! Enjoy!
Education
by TradeTheVolumeWaves
Bitcoin Bulls Aim for $102K – Breakout or Rejection Ahead?🚀📈 Bitcoin Bulls Aim for $102K – Breakout or Rejection Ahead? 🔍🧠 Good morning, good afternoon, or good evening — wherever you are in the world, Bitcoin is pumping, and that’s always a good sign for the bulls! 🐂 In my last BTC update, we anticipated a bounce from the key support zone around $93,600–$93,800, and price respected this level to the dot, rocketing upward just as expected. 🔥✅ That level acted as a strong springboard, and now BTC is climbing through a well-respected ascending channel on the 15-min chart. 📊 Key levels to watch: Middle of the channel: ~$98,689 Top of the channel: ~$100,636 Psychological level: $100,000 Projected breakout target: $102,774 (60% probability 🚦) Major resistance beyond: $113,000 However, there's always the alternate scenario: a 40% chance that we reject under $97,400, re-enter the lower end of the channel, and potentially drop toward $92,000 if that support fails. This would flip the bullish structure short-term — something to keep on your radar. ⚠️ This is a high-momentum situation, and I’ll be watching for confirmation of breakout or breakdown. Stay alert, keep your risk in check, and let the chart guide your trades. 📉📈 Let me know your thoughts in the comments — are we headed for $113K or due for a cooldown? One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by FX_Professor
1
What’s America's Real Goal in a Possible India–Pakistan War?We are nearing the end of the petro-dollar era. The power balance of the new world order will be defined not by oil, but by the strategic resources essential for AI, electric vehicles, and cutting-edge technology. Throughout the 20th century, the U.S. maintained its global dominance by controlling access to oil. From the Middle East to Latin America and Africa, wherever oil was found, the U.S. was there. But today, the focus has shifted to rare earth elements, lithium, copper, and other strategic minerals. Trump’s 2025 move to buy Greenland wasn’t a diplomatic joke—it was a signal. Behind-the-scenes deals in Ukraine for rare earth deposits tell the same story: whoever controls these "white gold" assets will lead the tech-driven world. Now enters Pakistan, with mineral-rich lands spanning over 600,000 km², nearly three times the size of the UK. Experts estimate its underground reserves to be worth $8 trillion. In Balochistan's Rekodik field alone, there are 12 million tons of copper and 20 million ounces of gold, with a copper purity of 0.53%, well above global standards. In the north, newly discovered lithium reserves could be a game-changer for the EV revolution. This is no longer just about resources—this is about deciding the future balance of global power.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Nurlan_PT
Trade Wars, Tariffs & Currencies: The Connection Explained📊 What Are Tariffs & Why Should Traders Care? 💱 Tariffs are taxes imposed by a country on imported goods. Think of them as the "price of entry" foreign products must pay to access domestic markets. 🔍 Why Governments Use Them: Protect domestic industries from cheaper foreign goods Retaliate in trade disputes Raise revenue (less common today) 🧠 Why Traders Should Watch Tariffs: Tariffs don’t just hit companies—they ripple through economies and currency markets. Here’s how: 📉 1. Currency Impact Tariffs can lead to currency depreciation in the targeted country as trade volumes fall and foreign demand drops. Example: When the U.S. imposed tariffs on China, the Yuan weakened to offset the blow. 📈 2. Inflation Pressure Tariffs make imports more expensive, fueling inflation. Central banks may respond with rate hikes—which moves markets. 🌐 3. Risk Sentiment Tariff wars increase global uncertainty = risk-off sentiment. Traders flee riskier currencies (like EMFX) for safe havens like the USD, CHF, or JPY. 🔄 4. Trade Balance Shifts Tariffs can affect a country's trade balance, influencing long-term currency valuation. 💡 Trading Tip: Watch for tariff announcements or trade tension headlines—they often precede volatility spikes in major pairs. Combine with sentiment tools and fundamentals for best results.
Education
by currencynerd
Unlocking the Power of TradingViewWhether you're a forex newbie or a seasoned trader, having the right tools can make or break your trading success. One platform that consistently stands out is @TradingView charting powerhouse packed with features designed to give you an edge. I @currencynerd I'm all about helping traders stay smart and stay sharp, so here’s a look at @TradingView features that can enhance your trading game. 1. Advanced Charting Tools TradingView's clean, responsive charts are one of its strongest features. You can customize everything—from chart types (like Heikin Ashi, Renko, or Line Break) to timeframes (including custom ones like 3-minute or 8-hour charts). Multiple chart layouts allow you to view several pairs or timeframes side by side—perfect for multi-timeframe analysis. Pro Tip: Use the “Replay” feature to practice backtesting and understand market behavior in real-time. 2. Built-in Technical Indicators TradingView offers hundreds of built-in indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands) and community-created ones. You can also stack multiple indicators on the same pane for cleaner setups. my is Favorite: “Pako Phutietsile's <50%”, which is an automatic indicator that detects and marks basing candles on the chart. A basing candle is a candle with body length less than 50% of its high-low range. This is essential for supply and demand traders. 3. Pine Script for Custom Strategies If you're serious about systematizing your edge, Pine Script lets you build and backtest custom indicators and strategies. Even with basic coding knowledge, you can automate entry/exit rules, alerts, and more. Nerdy Bonus: Many user-generated indicators are open source. Tweak them to fit your style. 4. Smart Alerts Set price, indicator, or drawing-based alerts that trigger via popup, email, or even webhook. This means you don’t need to watch the chart all day—TradingView becomes your eyes on the market. Example: Get an alert when RSI crosses below 30 on GBP/USD or when price hits a key Fibonacci level. 5. Economic Calendar & News Integration Stay ahead of market-moving events with TradingView's built-in Economic Calendar and News Feed. You can filter by currency or event impact to focus only on what matters to your trades. 6. Community & Script Library TradingView’s social side is underrated. Thousands of traders share ideas, scripts, and trade setups. It’s a great way to test your biases or discover new strategies. Tip: Follow high-reputation contributors in the trading/investing space and learn from their setups. 7. Multi-device Access & Cloud Sync Access your charts and watchlists from anywhere. Whether you're on desktop, tablet, or phone, everything stays synced in the cloud. You can start charting at home and get alerts on your phone while you're out. Final Thoughts: @TradingView isn’t just a charting tool—it’s a full-fledged trading assistant. Whether you're looking to simplify your workflow, test strategies, or get real-time alerts, the platform can enhance every part of your trading process. If you haven’t explored these features yet, give them a try. And if you're already using TradingView like a pro, let us know your favorite features in the comments! Stay sharp, stay nerdy. — @currencynerd
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
What Does Lump Sum Investing Mean for Investors and Traders?What Does Lump Sum Investing Mean for Investors and Traders? Lump sum investing is when an investor or trader commits a significant amount of capital to the market in one go rather than spreading it over time. This approach is believed to provide strong long-term returns but also comes with risks, particularly in volatile markets. This article explores how lump sum investing works, why investors and traders use it, potential risks, and strategies to manage exposure in different market conditions. What Is Lump Sum Investing? Lump sum investing is when an investor puts a significant amount of capital into the market at once, rather than spreading it over time. This approach is common when someone receives a windfall—such as an inheritance, bonus, or proceeds from closing an effective position—and decides to invest the full amount immediately. Unlike dollar-cost averaging (DCA), which involves dividing an investment into smaller, regular parts, lump sum investing seeks to maximise market exposure from day one. The key argument of investors is that markets tend to rise over time. By investing upfront, capital has more time to grow, rather than sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. Lump sum investing isn’t limited to equities. It applies across asset classes, including forex, commodities, and fixed income. A trader taking a large position in a currency pair based on a strong technical setup is, in effect, making a lump sum investment—allocating its capital at once rather than scaling in gradually. Institutional investors also use lump sum strategies, particularly when allocating large amounts into funds or rebalancing portfolios. However, while this method is believed to have strong long-term potential, it exposes investors and traders to market volatility, making risk management a key consideration. Why Some Investors and Traders Use Lump Sum Investing Lump sum investing is often used because it puts capital to work immediately, giving it more time to grow. Historical market data supports this approach—studies, including research from Vanguard, have claimed that potential returns are higher in lump sum vs dollar-cost averaging in most market conditions. This is because markets tend to rise over the long term, and waiting to invest can mean missing out on early gains. Long-term investors typically deploy lump sums when they have high conviction in an asset or when a large amount of capital becomes available. For example, a fund manager rebalancing a portfolio or an individual investing an inheritance may decide to allocate the full amount upfront rather than spreading it out. In Trading Traders use lump sum investing differently. While some may use an approach similar to dollar-cost averaging and scale into a position, most traders will deploy capital when they see a high-probability setup. For instance, instead of spreading 1% risk across several trades, they will typically open a position with the entire 1% all at once. Institutional investors also use lump sum strategies when making block trades or adjusting asset allocations. For example, a pension fund investing in equities after a market downturn may deploy capital in one move to take advantage of lower prices. However, investing a lump sum of money isn’t just about maximising potential returns—it also involves risk, particularly in volatile markets. The next section explores the potential downsides of this approach. Potential Risks of Lump Sum Investing Lump sum investing comes with risks—particularly in volatile markets. The decision to invest everything at once means full exposure from day one, which can work against investors if the market moves against them after deployment. Some key risks to consider include: Market Timing Risk Investing a lump sum relies on deploying capital at a single point in time, making it sensitive to short-term market fluctuations. If an investor enters at a peak—such as before the 2008 financial crisis or the early 2022 market downturn—they could face an immediate drawdown. While long-term investors may recover, traders working on shorter timeframes have less room to absorb losses. Volatility and Psychological Impact Markets rarely move in a straight line. Lump sum investments can see rapid swings in value, which can be difficult for some investors to handle. Seeing a portfolio drop sharply after investing can lead to emotional decisions, such as panic selling or deviating from an original strategy. Traders face a similar issue when entering a full position—sudden volatility can trigger stop losses or force them to exit prematurely. Liquidity Risk For traders, placing a large order in a low-liquidity market can result in slippage, where the trade executes at a worse price than expected. This is especially relevant in forex, small-cap stocks, and commodities with lower trading volume. How Lump Sum Investing Performs in Different Market Conditions Market conditions play a major role in how lump sum investing performs. While historical data suggests it often outperforms spreading investments over time, short-term results can vary significantly depending on the broader trend. Bull Markets Lump sum investing tends to perform well in sustained uptrends. Since markets generally rise over time, deploying capital early allows one to take advantage of long-term growth. Research from Vanguard found that in about 68% of historical periods, lump sum investing outperformed dollar-cost averaging because assets had more time in the market. A strong bull market—like the one from 2009 to 2021—allowed lump sum investors to see considerable gains over time. Bear Markets Investing a lump sum just before a downturn exposes capital to immediate losses. For instance, an investor who entered the market in late 2007 would have faced steep drawdowns during the 2008 crash. Recovery took years, depending on the assets involved. Although CFD traders can trade in rising and falling markets, the main challenge is to determine a trend reversal and avoid taking a full position just before it happens. Sideways Markets When prices move within a range without a clear trend, lump sum investing can be less effective. Investors may see stagnant returns if an asset moves sideways for extended periods, such as during the early 2000s. Traders in choppy markets often break positions into multiple entries to manage risk, rather than committing full capital at once. Strategies to Potentially Reduce Risk with Lump Sum Investing Lump sum investing involves full market exposure from the start, which means risk management plays a key role in avoiding unnecessary drawdowns. Understanding how to invest a lump sum of money wisely can help investors and traders potentially manage downside risks. Assess Market Conditions Deploying capital blindly can lead to poor outcomes. Investors often analyse valuations, interest rate trends, and macroeconomic factors before making large allocations. For traders, technical indicators such as support and resistance levels, moving averages, and momentum indicators help assess whether market conditions favour a full-position entry. Diversification Across Assets and Sectors One key concept in understanding how to invest a lump sum is diversification. Since allocating a lump sum to a single asset increases exposure to its price movements, some investors spread capital across multiple stocks, asset classes, or geographies to reduce concentration risk. A lump sum investment split between equities, bonds, and commodities can smooth out volatility, particularly in uncertain markets. Hedging Strategies Once they’ve decided what to do with a lump sum of money, some investors and traders hedge their positions. Opening opposite positions in correlated assets, trading stock pairs, or diversifying exposure across sectors in index trading can act as protection against downside moves, particularly in uncertain or high-volatility environments. Position Sizing Adjustments Traders concerned about volatility sometimes split a lump sum trade into staggered entries, adjusting size based on price action. This approach provides flexibility if market conditions shift unexpectedly. The Bottom Line Lump sum investing is a popular strategy among investors and traders, offering full market exposure from the start. While it has its advantages, managing risk is crucial, especially in volatile conditions. FAQ What Is Lump Sum Investment? Lump sum investment is when an investor places a large amount of capital into an asset or market all at once instead of spreading purchases over time. This approach is common after receiving an inheritance, bonus, or proceeds from an asset sale. It provides immediate market exposure, which can be advantageous in rising markets but also increases the risk of short-term volatility. What Is a Lump Sum Trading Strategy? A lump sum trading strategy entails entering a trade with the entire position size in a single transaction, rather than gradually scaling in. Traders often use this approach when they have strong convictions in a setup. While it maximises potential returns if the market moves favourably, it also increases exposure to short-term price swings. Is It Better to Invest Lump Sum or DCA? Lump sum investing has historically outperformed dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in most market conditions because capital is exposed to growth sooner. However, DCA helps manage timing risk by spreading capital over time, making it a common choice for investors concerned about short-term market fluctuations. What Are the Disadvantages of Lump Sum Investing? The main risk is market timing—investing at a peak can lead to immediate losses. Lump sum investors also face higher short-term volatility, which can be psychologically challenging. In low-liquidity markets, executing large trades at once may lead to slippage, affecting execution prices. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by FXOpen
1
Bitcoin vs Gold: Which One Deserves Your Money in 2025 ?Hello Traders 🐺 As you probably guessed from the title and the thumbnail, today I want to dive into a key question that many of us have asked at some point: 👉 Which asset is better for you — Bitcoin or Gold? The answer depends heavily on your strategy, and more importantly, where we are in the current economic cycle. Maybe you're thinking: "Why not both?" or even "Why compare them at all?" Fair question — so let's break it down: Before Bitcoin emerged, Gold was the go-to asset to hedge against inflation. People used it for saving, wealth storage, and security — and to this day, central banks and governments still accumulate and rely on gold more than ever. But after Bitcoin started gaining real traction in the global financial system, many began to see it as even more valuable than gold. 🪙 Why? The Case for Bitcoin The reason is simple: There will only ever be 21 million BTC. No one can print it. No one can duplicate it. And perhaps most importantly — you can hold it with just 12 words. That’s it. Now imagine trying to store $10 million worth of gold. You’d need vaults, transport, security... With BTC? You could fit that same value in your pocket — or even memorize it. So let’s tackle the first question: 1. Which one is easier to hold? ✅ BTC wins here. It’s lightweight, borderless, and accessible. Gold, on the other hand, requires physical space, secure storage, and logistical costs. You're probably not putting bars of gold in your backpack. 2. Which one is more secure? Well — that depends on how you define security. → If you're talking about storage and access, then blockchain security and private key protection give BTC a clear edge. → But if you're talking about price stability, Gold is still the safer choice. Bitcoin is famously volatile. It can move 10% in a day. We've seen 70% crashes even outside of bear markets. So if you're risk-averse or looking for less volatile assets, then Gold makes more sense. 3. Supply and Inflation Another key difference lies in supply dynamics: Governments and miners can continue to expand Gold’s supply over time. But with BTC, the supply is fixed — forever. That’s one of the biggest arguments in favor of BTC as a long-term store of value. Final Thoughts: 💡 The biggest strength of BTC is that it's finite, portable, and decentralized. 💡 The biggest strength of Gold is that it's stable, less volatile, and battle-tested over centuries. We could continue this comparison much longer — but now I want to hear your thoughts: 👉 Which one do YOU prefer — Bitcoin or Gold? Drop your opinion in the comments 👇 And as always remember: 🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable. 🐺 — KIU_COIN
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Kiu_Coin
28
How to Set Up and Use OCO Orders on TradingViewThis tutorial video explains what OCO (Order cancels orders) are, how they work, how to place them in Tradingview, and how they relate to bracket orders. You'll learn how to add them to new entry orders as well as existing positions. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by OptimusFutures
10
Futures on CME and Launch of XpFinance DeFi PlatformOn May 7, 2025, the XRP ecosystem received two major developments that signal a new chapter in its evolution. First, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced the launch of futures contracts for XRP. Shortly thereafter, developers behind the XRP Ledger unveiled XpFinance — the first non-custodial lending platform built on the network. These two events are poised to reshape XRP's market perception and could attract a wave of new investment. XRP Futures on CME: A Leap Toward Institutional Adoption Set to go live on May 19, the new CME product will enable investors to trade XRP through regulated futures contracts. This is a major milestone. With similar contracts already in place for Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP becomes the third digital asset to gain such legitimacy in institutional markets. The introduction of futures means greater liquidity, risk management tools, and a clear path for hedge funds, pension managers, and banks to engage with XRP — without needing to custody the underlying token directly. Analysts anticipate that this added market structure could drive up demand, especially if the rollout is smooth and met with trading interest. XpFinance and the XPF Token: DeFi Comes to XRP Ledger The second big announcement came from XpFinance, a new decentralized lending protocol. What sets it apart is its non-custodial model — users can lend assets and earn interest while retaining full control of their private keys. At a time when centralized platforms are under scrutiny, this approach appeals to security-conscious users. XpFinance is powered by a new token, XPF, which will be used for staking rewards, fee payments, and governance. The pre-sale of XPF has already begun and is generating buzz, especially among XRP community members eager to participate in the first major DeFi initiative on the ledger. Market Outlook and Analyst Forecasts Reactions from analysts have been positive. According to a report from DigitalMetrics, if both the CME futures and XpFinance platforms gain traction, XRP could see a sharp upward move — potentially reaching $10 by summer 2025. That would represent a fourfold increase from its current price. However, risks remain. Ripple Labs continues to face regulatory pressure in the U.S., and crypto markets overall remain volatile. Still, the general tone has shifted. With increasing institutional interest and expanding utility, XRP appears to be entering a new phase of growth. Conclusion The combination of institutional infrastructure and decentralized finance innovation makes May 2025 a pivotal moment for XRP. If these initiatives succeed, XRP could transition from a mid-cap altcoin to a primary digital asset in the eyes of both institutional investors and the broader crypto community. Whether this momentum will translate into long-term market dominance remains to be seen — but the foundation is clearly being laid.
CRYPTOCAP:XRPEducation
by HCN-News12
Simple Break of Structure BoS Trading Strategy Explained One of the best and reliable strategies to trade break of structure BoS is to apply multiple time frame analysis. In this article, I will teach you my break of structure gold forex trading strategy. You will get a complete step-by-step guide with examples. Let's start with a quick theory and let me explain to you what is break of structure BoS in Smart Money Concept SMC trading. In a bullish trend, break of structure BoS is an important event that signifies a continuation of an uptrend. It is based on a violation and a candle close above the level of the last higher high (HH). After a breakout, the broken level becomes the first strong support for trend-following buying. Check multiple examples of confirmed breaks of structure BoS on GBPNZD forex pair on a weekly time frame. In a downtrend, Break of Structure BoS means a bearish trend continuation . Break of Structure is considered to be confirmed when a candle closes below the level of the last lower low (LL). The broken key level becomes the closest strong support for buying. That's the example of a healthy downtrend on USDJPY forex pair on a daily. Each break of structure BoS pushed the prices lower, providing a strong signal to sell. What newbie traders do incorrectly, they trade break of structure without a confirmation strategy, and it leads to substantial losses. Though GBPCHF is trading in a bullish trend and though each BoS provided a trend-following signal. The price retraced significantly lower below the broken structure before the growth resumed. When the price retests a broken structure after BoS in a bullish trend, start lower time frame analysis. If you identified a break of structure on a daily, analyze 4h/1h time frames. If on a 4H, then 30/15 minutes. After the price sets a new higher high with BoS in uptrend, it usually starts trading in a minor bearish trend on lower time frames. With our strategy, your signal to buy will be a retest of a broken structure and a consequent bullish Change of Character CHoCH . That will provide an accurate bullish signal. In a bearish trend, analyze the lower time frames after a retest of a broken structure. Your signal to sell will be a bearish Change of Character CHoCH. Look at a price action on EURCHF on a daily. We see a strong bullish trend and a confirmed Break of Structure BoS. According to the rules of our trading strategy, we start analyzing 4h/1h time frames after a retest of a broken level of the last Higher High. Our signal to buy is an intraday bullish CHoCH. We open a long trade after that with the stop loss below the intraday lows and take profit being a current high. That's how simple this strategy is. Multiple time frame analysis provides the extra level of security. Strong lower time frame confirmation substantially increases the win ratio of a trading setup. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
24
Things No One Told Me Before I Started Trading ForexTrading Forex is not what it looks like from the outside. I was misled by videos, social media so called “mentors,” and my own assumptions. I started with confidence and ended up confused, frustrated, and tired. It wasn’t until I stepped back and re-evaluated everything that I realized the issue wasn’t the market—it was my mindset. Here are ten things I wish I had known before I started trading Forex. By the way, I stepped back for 12 years. Trading and Technical Analysis Are Not the Same Learning to draw support and resistance lines, identifying patterns, or knowing what a Fibonacci retracement is—that’s technical analysis. Trading is how you deal with uncertainty, losses, waiting, temptation, and your own expectations. Most people think learning TA makes them traders. It doesn’t. Not Everyone Should Trade Some people should invest. Others might be better off doing something else entirely. Trading is mentally taxing, emotionally draining, and time-consuming. If you're doing it just because it's trendy or someone told you it was easy, step back. There's no shame in realizing it's not for you. More Information Is Not More Clarity I watched hundreds of hours of videos, bought multiple courses, followed endless threads online, and read dozens of books. And I was more confused than when I started. Learning is important—but learning in too many directions at once leads nowhere. If You Don’t Know Why You Entered, You Won’t Know When to Exit Random entries based on feelings, Reddit advice, or someone’s signal mean you’ll never know what invalidates your trade. Without clear criteria for entry, you won’t have a structured exit. This leads to second-guessing, impulsive changes, and inconsistent results. If You Don’t Know the Timeframe You’re Trading, You’re Not Trading Jumping between a 5-minute chart and a daily chart without clarity is chaos. Every timeframe has its own logic. I didn’t realize that each needed to be treated differently. It took me a long time to stay consistent within a timeframe and build rules around it. Every Trade Has a Cost Even if you win, there’s opportunity cost, time cost, and energy cost. Losing trades cost more than money—they can cost your confidence and clarity. Understanding this changed how I approached setups. I stopped trading just because I was bored or wanted action. The Goal Is Sustainability, Not Winning A few lucky wins early on gave me the wrong impression. I thought trading was about being right. It’s not. It’s about staying in the game. That means managing risk, cutting losses, and being okay with small gains that add up over time. You’ll Probably Quit More Than Once I’ve quit trading multiple times—out of frustration, burnout, or just not knowing what else to do. That’s part of the journey. I used to think quitting meant failure. Now I know it can mean reassessment, and sometimes that’s the most mature move. Your Real Growth Starts After You Stop Trading for a While Ironically, the biggest leap in my trading came after I stopped placing trades. I used the time to review journals, reflect on why I lost, and restructure my approach. No charts, no trades, just thinking. That pause gave me more clarity than any win ever did. You Can Learn to Trade, But You Need to Unlearn the Noise First The hardest part isn’t learning—it’s unlearning. Unlearning the hype, the toxic “trading culture,” the overconfidence, the false urgency, and the pressure to make money fast. Once I removed all that noise, I could finally hear my own thinking. I share these not as advice, but as lessons I had to learn the hard way. If you’re in the middle of it—overwhelmed, stuck, or doubting—just know you’re not alone. But don’t keep pushing blindly. Step back, think clearly, and figure out what kind of trader you actually want to be.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
Bitcoin vs. Saylor: The Power and Danger of fanatical promotionToday I want to talk about Michael Saylor and his influence on many crypto minds and, to some extent, the movement of Bitcoin’s price. It’s very important to understand who we’re listening to, who we’re following, and whether this person has hidden motives we don’t see due to lack of information or unwillingness to get it — due to our stubborn desire to see only what confirms our own fantasies and thoughts and serves our expectations. Let’s turn on our reason and objectivity and face the facts. Michael Saylor is a well-known figure in the crypto world. He promotes the idea of eternal Bitcoin growth and actively buys it to support his words. When the price drops, he even suggests his readers sell their organs, which, to me, is too much. Let’s move to the facts — everything is Googleable, and promptable. Facts: 📈 Hype of 2000 In 2000, he rode the dot-com hype with his company MicroStrategy. MicroStrategy was promoted as a pioneer in business analytics and data management software, and he saw himself solely as a visionary of the new economy. The boom was sky-high — just read about the dot-com era. Stocks of new tech companies were soaring, and it was enough to say “software” and “I see the future.” In 1998, MicroStrategy successfully held an IPO. In 2000, at the peak of the dot-com boom, the company’s stock reached an incredible $333 per share in March. He skillfully used the hype, and here was his 2000 narrative: Digital transformation: Saylor claimed the world was entering a new era where data would become the main asset of companies, and MicroStrategy — the key tool for processing and analyzing it. Unlimited growth: In the dot-com era, Saylor pushed the idea that tech companies like MicroStrategy would grow exponentially, ignoring traditional financial constraints. The future is now: Saylor created the feeling that MicroStrategy wasn’t just following trends but shaping them, offering solutions that would define the future of business. At the same time, he was building a cult around himself, cultivating the image of a genius entrepreneur. ⚠️ Financial reporting scandal The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched an investigation into MicroStrategy. The company overstated revenues, which led to a stock crash (from $333 to $86 in one day) and a loss of investor trust. The stock kept falling and dropped to $0.4 (–100%!). The SEC filed charges against Michael Saylor personally (CEO), as well as CFO Mark Lynch and the chief accountant. They were accused of intentionally misrepresenting financials to keep stock prices high. SEC investigation results: In December 2000, the SEC concluded the investigation, and MicroStrategy agreed to settle without admitting guilt: * The company paid a $10M fine. * Saylor, Lynch, and other executives paid personal fines. * Saylor agreed to pay $8.28M in “disgorgement” (unjust enrichment) and a $350K fine — a total of about $8.63M. * MicroStrategy committed to revising its reporting and implementing stricter internal controls. In addition to the SEC settlement ($11M from leadership, including $8.63M from Saylor), MicroStrategy faced shareholder class-action lawsuits, which were settled for $10M. No executives were criminally charged, but the company’s and Saylor’s reputations suffered greatly. In other words, Michael didn’t have any moral hesitation about faking company profits during losses. But investors and journalists started asking questions — and the SEC came knocking. Let’s call it what it is: Saylor committed fraud, using hype, promising endless growth, and creating a cult around himself as a “financial genius and visionary.” Michael went quiet, and the media tone shifted quickly — from super-visionary to one of the biggest losers and scammers. To give him credit, he managed to keep the company alive and kept a low profile until 2020, like a mouse. 20 years — a generation change and a new hype cycle. And what does a tech visionary do? Of course — jump into the new wave. A chance to restore his image — probably more important to him than money. 🟠 Bitcoin Era, 2020 Before 2020, Saylor was a Bitcoin skeptic. In 2013, he even tweeted that “Bitcoin’s days are numbered” and compared it to gambling. But in 2020, he changed his position after deeply studying crypto. His mission: to protect capital and restore his image as a prophet — and he decided to buy Bitcoin. But his own money seemed insufficient, so he turned to borrowing. Here’s how the scheme works: 1.MicroStrategy issues stocks and bonds 📈 They sell new MSTR shares → get cash. 💵 They issue bonds (debt papers) → investors give them money at interest. 2. They use that money to buy Bitcoin 🟧 All the raised funds go into BTC purchases. They don’t sell. Just hold. Never lock in profit. 3. If BTC rises → MSTR stock price rises MSTR becomes a kind of "BTC ETF." 📊 BTC growth = MicroStrategy’s market cap growth. 🔁 Then they repeat the cycle. Stock price up → issue more shares/bonds → buy more BTC → repeat. 📌 The catch: They use other people’s money (debt) to buy BTC. They sell almost nothing. They bet BTC will grow faster than interest on the debt. So as long as the price goes up — everything is fine. Let’s admit: his fanaticism, aggressive marketing, and bold statements have helped Bitcoin. But the main question: will the inevitable market correction wipe out this belief in endless growth? 🔍 His personality It’s crucial for us as traders and investors to understand who really runs the company or project. The personal traits of leaders are useful information that gives us insight and a behavioral map. We need to research not only products and financials, but also the psychological types of those making the decisions. Saylor’s aggressive marketing and loud statements are part of his personality. He fed off the hype around his persona more than any growing bank balance. And there’s nothing wrong with that — until you start deceiving people to keep attention on yourself. For example, in the 2000s, *Forbes* noted that Saylor “sold the dream” of a new economy where traditional profit metrics didn’t matter. It attracted investors — but didn’t reflect reality. Forbes hinted that his desire to maintain the genius image may have led to accounting manipulation. Saylor created an "expectations bubble" that burst. His desire to prove he’s a genius led to a disconnection from reality. He often talks about himself as a genius and visionary (sounds like a grandiose ego). He positions himself as the savior of capital through BTC (messiah complex). He publicly mocks “weak hands” and traditional investors (shows superiority). He never admits mistakes, even after losing billions (denial and overconfidence). He repeats his ideas again and again (manic fixation on being right). His speech is like a manifesto, not a dialogue. He doesn’t converse — he proclaims. I don’t sense greed in him. I sense emptiness that demands a cult. He doesn’t live for money — he is obsessed with the idea. And that’s the problem — there’s no objectivity here. It feels more like revenge after the humiliation and downfall of 20 years ago. He’s smart — no doubt. But it’s not just intelligence. It’s cold messianism. Obsession, not passion. Psychotype: Grand strategist with a humiliation trauma Trait Behavior Narcissistic core “I’m special, my vision is above all.” Obsession with greatness “I must be the truth, not just be right.” Hyper-rationality “I survive through logic, not feelings.” Psychological armor “I won’t show weakness. If I break, I disappear.” Fanatical visionary “My idea is supreme. I don’t need to be humble.” 💸 More facts: In 2024, Michael paid a FWB:40M fine for tax evasion. The accusation: He didn’t pay income tax in D.C., while actively living there — yachts, property, planes, frequent visits. His tax returns didn’t reflect reality, and the investigation used GPS, Instagram, flight data, banking, and other digital traces. Saylor didn’t admit guilt but agreed to settle for around $40M. His personal wealth is mostly in MicroStrategy shares (9.9% or ~$8.74B by end of 2024). Theoretically, he can sell them — but he must file a report within two days. Current status: MicroStrategy owns 555,450 BTC Average purchase price: ~$68,550 Total purchase cost: ~$38.08B Unrealized profit: ~$14.7B And remember — Saylor’s slogan: Forever HODL. 📉 But the key point: The company’s current debt is $7.24B. All is good — as long as the price rises. Analysts estimate BTC would have to fall to ~$20K before MSTR is forced to liquidate. But if BTC nears the break-even zone, fear might hit shareholders first — triggering stock sell-offs. If MSTR shares fall — which is likely during a BTC crash — bondholders, especially those with convertible bonds (which make up most of the debt), might demand repayment. That could force Saylor to sell BTC. Because in a crypto winter, buyers for MSTR stock or bonds may disappear. So BTC could fall — not because of actual sales, but from fear of those sales. This is my main concern with Saylor’s oversized influence on the market. 🐍 A bit of “reptilian” theory What if BlackRock *planned* to use Saylor’s hands to push Bitcoin and concentrate large amounts in one basket — then take it from him? Among the main bondholders are big institutions: * Allianz Global Investors * Voya Investment Management * Calamos Investments * State Street These bonds are usually unsecured and non-convertible, making them attractive to investors who want Bitcoin exposure without direct ownership. In case of default, bondholders have priority over the company’s assets — including BTC reserves. 🏛 State Street Corporation Public company traded on NYSE. Its biggest shareholders: Vanguard Group and BlackRock . If so — they could end up holding as much BTC as Satoshi. BlackRock’s IBIT holds ~500K BTC. MicroStrategy holds ~500K BTC. 🤔 Questions to reflect on: * Is industry leader fanaticism good for the development of crypto? * What is Michael Saylor really doing? Avenging the past? Or truly in love with the technology? * What risks does a whale with media influence and fanaticism and pockets full of Bitcoin and debt pose to the market? Waiting for your thoughts in the comments, dear traders! Hugs! 🤗
Education
by Juliia
Ultimate Guide to Master CISDCISD stands for Consolidation, Inducement, Stop Hunt, Displacement. It’s a simple, repeatable structure that shows how smart money sets up traps in the market to grab liquidity and then make a clean move in the opposite direction. If you’re serious about trading the ICT style, this is one of the most useful frameworks to learn. It helps you avoid chasing bad breakouts and teaches you to wait for real setups that come after stop hunts and proper market structure shifts. But there’s one rule that’s non-negotiable — a CISD setup is only valid after a liquidity sweep. If the market hasn’t taken out a clear high or low where stops are sitting, then the rest of the model doesn’t mean anything. No sweep, no trade. 1. Start With the Liquidity Sweep Everything begins with the liquidity grab. If price hasn’t taken out a high or low where stops are stacked, you should walk away from the setup. Don’t try to front-run a move before smart money has done its job. The liquidity sweep is what gives the rest of the move power. That’s when price runs through obvious levels, swing highs, swing lows, the Asian range, New York session highs or lows and hits stop losses. Those stops give smart money fuel to enter in the opposite direction. When you’re watching the market, ask yourself this: "Who just got stopped out?" If you can’t answer that, then it’s not a sweep. And if it’s not a sweep, it’s not a CISD. 2. Consolidation — Where Liquidity Builds This is the first part of the structure. Price starts to move sideways in a tight range, usually during Asian session or during parts of London where volume is low. It can last for hours or even across sessions. The key here is to understand what’s happening. Traders are placing buys above the highs and sells below the lows. Liquidity is building on both sides. It’s a trap being set. Retail traders are expecting a breakout, but smart money is waiting to use that breakout to their advantage. Your job in this phase is to identify the range and mark out the highs and lows. That’s where stops will be sitting. You’re not looking to trade during this phase. You’re watching and planning 3. Inducement (sweep)— Fake Break to Trap Traders After the range is set, price gives a small push out of the range just enough to get people to commit. This is the inducement. It’s the bait. Let’s say the range high is being tested. Price breaks just above it, traders think it’s a breakout, and they go long. Maybe it holds for a couple of minutes, even gives a small push in their favor. But then it rolls over. That’s the trap. Now those traders are caught, and their stops are sitting below. Sometimes the inducement comes before the real sweep. Other times, the inducement is the sweep. What matters is that traders have been lured into bad positions and their stops are exposed. As a trader, your job is not to take the bait. Watch how price reacts to these fake moves. Often, they come with weak volume or are followed by an immediate sharp reversal. 4. Stop Hunt — The Sweep That Validates the Setup This is where the real move starts to form. Price aggressively runs through the level that holds liquidity, usually below the low or above the high you marked earlier. This is when smart money takes out the traders who were induced during the fake move. Their stops get hit, and that gives institutions the volume they need to get into the opposite side. You should be actively watching for a reaction here. Do you see rejection? Does the candle close with a strong wick? Are there signs of absorption or order flow flipping? This is your validation point. Once price sweeps liquidity and starts to reject the level, that’s your cue to get ready for the next part, the actual shift. 5. Displacement — The Real Move Begins Once the sweep happens, price doesn’t just drift, it snaps back hard. This is called displacement. Displacement is a sharp, clean move in the opposite direction of the stop hunt. This is when market structure breaks, momentum shifts, and a fair value gap usually forms. This is your confirmation that the setup is live. The sweep happened, smart money entered, and now the market is moving with intent. You don’t want to chase the displacement candle itself. Instead, wait for the retrace. Look for price to come back into the fair value gap or an order block left behind by the impulse. That’s your entry point. Make sure: Structure is broken in your direction The move away is impulsive, not choppy You’re not forcing an entry on a weak pullback This is the only part of CISD where you actually take the trade. Everything else is just setup. How to Manage Risk and Entries Once you’ve got a valid setup, here’s how to manage it: Entry: Enter on the CISD or wait for the pullback into the fair value gap or order block. Enter on the reaction or confirmation. Stop Loss: Place it just past the low or high that got swept. If you’re long, your stop goes below the stop hunt candle. If you’re short, it goes above. Take Profit: Target the next liquidity level. That could be the other side of the range, a swing high or low, or an inefficiency in price. You can scale out if price approaches a session high or low, or hold for a full range expansion depending on the session. Final Thoughts The CISD model works because it’s built on how the market actually moves, not indicators, not random patterns, but liquidity. Don’t jump in early. Don’t guess. Wait for the sweep. Wait for the displacement. That’s where the edge is. Once you get used to watching this play out in real time, you’ll start to see it everywhere. It’s in Forex, crypto, indices, any market that runs on liquidity. Stick to the rules. Let the model do its job. And remember: no sweep, no setup! ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this guide helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Education
by TehThomas
58
The World’s Financial PowerhousesMoney never sleeps — and in certain cities, it practically runs the show. These financial capitals aren't just centers of wealth; they're the beating hearts of global finance, moving trillions every single day. Today, let's take a quick tour through the cities that move markets, set trends, and shape economies. 🌍 1. New York City: The Global Titan Nickname: The City That Never Sleeps Key Institutions: New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) NASDAQ Wall Street banks (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley) Why It Matters: New York is the world's largest financial center by market cap, volume, and influence. If you trade stocks, currencies, or commodities, you’re feeling New York’s pulse — even if you don’t realize it. 🔔 Trading Fact: The NYSE alone handles over $20 trillion in listed market cap! 🌍 2. London: The Forex King Nickname: The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street (referring to the Bank of England) Key Institutions: London Stock Exchange (LSE) Bank of England Hundreds of forex and investment firms Why It Matters: London is the epicenter of forex trading — commanding nearly 40% of the global forex market turnover. Its time zone also bridges Asia and North America, making it crucial for liquidity during major sessions. 🔔 Trading Fact: The 4 PM London Fix is a major reference point for institutional forex traders worldwide. 🌍 3. Tokyo: The Asian Anchor Nickname: The Gateway to the East Key Institutions: Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Why It Matters: Tokyo sets the tone for Asian markets — and often for global risk appetite during the Asian session. The Japanese yen (JPY) is the third most traded currency globally, often acting as a safe-haven barometer during market turmoil. 🔔 Trading Fact: Japan is also home to massive institutional players known as the "Japanese real money accounts" — pension funds, insurers, and mega-banks. 🌍 4. Hong Kong & Singapore: The Dual Dragons Nicknames: Hong Kong: Asia’s World City Singapore: The Lion City Why They Matter: Hong Kong: Gateway for global money flowing into China and emerging Asian markets. Singapore: Major hub for forex trading, wealth management, and commodity trading. Both cities are fiercely competitive, tech-driven, and strategically vital for accessing Asia’s fast-growing economies. 🔔 Trading Fact: Singapore is now ranked among the top 3 global forex trading hubs, catching up fast to London and New York. 🌍 5. Zurich: The Quiet Giant Nickname: The Bank Vault of Europe Key Institutions: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Swiss private banking giants (UBS, Credit Suisse) Why It Matters: Zurich represents stability, security, and discretion. It's a powerhouse in private banking, wealth management, and gold trading. The Swiss franc (CHF) is another classic safe-haven currency — and Zurich's influence is a big reason why. 🔔 Nerdy Fact: Despite its small size, Switzerland punches way above its weight in forex and commodity markets. 🗺️ Why These Cities Matter to Your Trading Liquidity: Big cities = Big volumes = Tighter spreads and faster executions. Market Movements: Economic reports, policy decisions, and corporate news from these capitals can spark global volatility. Session Overlaps: New York–London overlap? Tokyo–London handoff? Understanding when these cities are active helps you time your trades better. Final Thoughts : You don't have to live in New York or Tokyo to trade like a pro. But you do need to understand where the big moves are born. Follow the money. Watch the capitals. Trade smarter. Markets may seem chaotic — but behind the noise, the world’s financial capitals keep the rhythm steady. put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
Education
by currencynerd
one of the most underrated charts : M2(money supply)When it comes to forex and macro trading, it's easy to get lost in charts, indicators, and economic calendars. But one of the most overlooked—and incredibly powerful—macro indicators is the M2 Money Supply. In this post, we’ll break down what M2 really is, why it matters, and how traders like you can use it to get an edge. 💰 What Is M2 Money Supply? M2 represents the total amount of money in circulation in an economy, including: M1 (physical cash + checking deposits) Savings deposits Money market securities Time deposits (under $100,000) In simple terms: M2 tracks how much money is sloshing around in the system. 🧠 Why Traders Should Care About M2 When M2 goes up significantly, it often signals that a central bank is easing monetary policy—i.e., printing more money, keeping interest rates low, or using QE (quantitative easing). Conversely, when M2 contracts or slows, it suggests tightening, and could signal reduced liquidity, higher rates, or a slower economy. M2 = Macro Liquidity Meter And liquidity drives markets—especially currencies. ⚙️ How to Use M2 in Your Trading Strategy Here are 3 ways you can incorporate M2 into your macro trading toolkit: 1. Gauge Inflation & Currency Value When a country expands its money supply rapidly (like the U.S. did during COVID), the purchasing power of its currency often declines, especially against currencies with tighter monetary policy. ✅ Watch for divergences: If M2 is growing fast in one country and flat in another, that’s a potential FX opportunity. 📉 Example: USD weakened sharply post-COVID when M2 surged. 2. Confirm Trends in Interest Rates M2 often leads or confirms central bank policy. Shrinking M2 → Tighter conditions → Rising rates → Currency bullish Expanding M2 → Easier policy → Lower rates → Currency bearish Use it alongside yield curve analysis and central bank projections. 3. Identify Risk-On/Risk-Off Regimes A rising M2 usually supports risk assets like equities and EM currencies. Falling M2 can trigger liquidity squeezes, flight to safety, and stronger demand for USD or JPY. Use M2 as a macro filter for your risk appetite. Watch for turning points in M2 to anticipate market regime shifts. 🔎 How to Track M2 on @TradingView Open a new chart and search for: 🔍 FRED:M2SL – U.S. M2 Money Stock (seasonally adjusted) You can also compare this against: DXY (US Dollar Index) USDJPY, EURUSD, or other major FX pairs U.S. 10-Year Yields (US10Y) or Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) Add M2 as an overlay or sub-chart for macro context. Use the "Compare" tool to visualize divergences with currency pairs. 📌 Final Thoughts M2 might not give you minute-by-minute trade signals like an RSI or MACD, but it offers something far more powerful: macro context. When used with other indicators, it can help traders: Anticipate currency trends Understand shifts in monetary policy Position for regime changes in risk appetite Remember: the smartest traders aren’t just charting price—they’re charting liquidity. And M2 is the ultimate liquidity map. put together by : @currencynerd
FRED:M2SLEducation
by currencynerd
3
LTC Long - Learn to read Weis Wave with SI- Target hit overnightLearning to read the chart using Weis Wave with Speed Index will help you understand how the market works. Speed Index is very valuable to understand if there is absorption happening in the market. Remember that absorption takes time, it takes hours or sometimes days, so you have to be patient. In this chart I will explain how to read this 1HR LTC chart using Speed Index and why we had this explosion in price. I have entered long (my target was hit overnight). Annotations on chart are in sync with my below notes. Reading: 1. We had a high volume down move (buyers could be in there but I am not sure yet) 2. We have touched 50-61.8 Fib area - If buyers would like to enter this is a great area. 3. Speed Index 29 that's an Abnormal Speed Index. Why is it abnormal? Because at that time the average Speed Index of 30 waves back was 15. I call this as the first Push or the first absorption. Buyers are entering. 4. Speed Index 78.7 another abnormal SI -> more buying 5. Speed Index 37 on a down wave that's what I call a HTMD (Hard to move down) more buying and finally a PL (Plutus Long signal) breaking by a bit the previous resistance level. This is where I have Entered Long. 6. Another HTMD , hard to move down wave with Speed Index 32.2, more buying and another Plutus long signal PRL. Therefore the explosion is completely justified because it has a history of several hours of absorption. If you were to read just volume waves you would not be able to see this coming Speed Index alerts that something is cooking and when the time is right you enter (PL signal) I hope my above explanations helped you. Enjoy!
Education
by TradeTheVolumeWaves
What Is Random Walk Theory and Its Implications in Trading? What Is Random Walk Theory and Its Implications in Trading? Random walk theory argues that market prices move erratic, making it difficult to analyse past data for an advantage. It suggests that technical and fundamental analysis provide little to no edge, as prices instantly reflect all available information. While some traders embrace this idea, others challenge it. This article explores the theory, its implications, criticisms, and what it means for traders navigating financial markets. What Is Random Walk Theory? Random walk theory reflects the idea that financial markets move erratic, making it impossible to analyse past price data for an advantage. The theory argues that price changes are random and independent, meaning past movements don’t influence future direction. This challenges both technical and fundamental analysis, arguing traders who attempt to time the market are essentially guessing. The concept was first introduced by Maurice Kendall in 1953, who found no meaningful patterns in stock prices. Later, Burton Malkiel popularised it in A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1973), arguing that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a stock list would perform as well as professional traders. The underlying principle is that markets are efficient, instantly reflecting all available information. The theory states that prices truly follow a random path, so a trader analysing charts or company reports has no statistical edge. It’s like flipping a coin—the next move is unrelated to the last. This has major implications: active trading strategies become questionable, and passive investing (e.g., index funds) may be a more logical approach. However, while randomness can explain short-term price movements, longer-term trends still emerge. Factors like liquidity, institutional flows, and investor psychology create periods where price action deviates from pure randomness. This is where the debate arises—are markets entirely random, or do trends exist that skilled traders can take advantage of? Understanding random walk theory helps frame this debate, offering insight into why some traders dismiss traditional analysis while others continue searching for patterns in price action. Theoretical Foundations and Key Assumptions The random walk hypothesis is based on mathematical models and probability, arguing that financial markets follow a stochastic process—where future price movements are independent of past trends. It builds on several key principles that shape how economists and traders view market efficiency and price behaviour. Market Efficiency and Information Absorption A core assumption of random walk models is that markets are efficient, meaning all available information is already reflected in asset prices. If new data emerges, prices adjust instantly, making it impossible to gain an edge through analysis. This aligns with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which classifies efficiency into three forms: - Weak form: Prices already reflect past movements, rendering technical analysis ineffective. - Semi-strong form: Fundamental data (e.g., earnings reports) is priced in immediately, limiting the usefulness of research. - Strong form: Even insider information is priced in, meaning no trader has an advantage. Brownian Motion and Stochastic Processes The theory borrows from Brownian motion, a model describing random movement, often used in random walk algorithms to simulate stock price fluctuations. Prices are treated as a series of independent events, much like molecules colliding in a gas. No Clear Patterns If prices truly follow a random walk, trends and cycles do not exist in a statistically significant way. This challenges traders who attempt to use historical data to analyse future movements. Implications for Traders and Investors If random walks in trading are truly the norm, then analysing market movements using historical price data is no more effective than flipping a coin. This has significant implications for both traders and long-term investors. For traders relying on technical analysis, random walk theory presents a major problem. If price changes are independent, then tools like support and resistance, trendlines, and moving averages hold no real value. The same applies to fundamental analysis—if all available information is instantly priced in, then even detailed financial research doesn’t offer an edge. This would mean day traders and swing traders aren’t consistently able to generate higher returns than the broader market. It’s why proponents of the theory often argue that attempting to time the market is a losing battle in the long run. However, many supporters of the random walk theory advocate for passive investing, arguing that since, for example, individual stock movements are erratic, holding a diversified index fund is a more rational approach. Instead of trying to outperform the market, investors simply track it, reducing costs associated with frequent trading. Criticism and Counterarguments While random walk theory argues that market movements are independent, real-world trading data argues that markets are not entirely random. Critics point to patterns, inefficiencies, and the effectiveness of certain trading strategies as evidence that price action isn’t purely a coin flip. Market Inefficiencies Exist One of the biggest challenges to random walk theory is that markets display recurring inefficiencies. Certain price behaviours, like momentum effects, mean reversion, and seasonal trends, suggest that past movements do have an impact on future price action. For example: - Momentum strategies: Studies show that assets that have performed well over the past three to twelve months tend to continue in the same direction. If price action were purely random, these trends wouldn’t exist. - Earnings reactions: Stock prices often drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for weeks after the announcement. If markets were perfectly efficient, all adjustments would happen instantly. Real Results Random walk theory suggests that no trader can systematically outperform the market over time. Yet, some fund managers and proprietary traders have done exactly that. Warren Buffett’s long-term track record is often cited as evidence that skill, not just luck, plays a role in investing and trading. Similarly, hedge funds employing quantitative strategies have consistently generated returns, challenging the idea that price movements are entirely random. The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis A more flexible alternative is Andrew Lo’s Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, which seeks to reconcile the EMH’s claim that markets are rational and efficient with behavioural economists’ argument that markets are, in reality, irrational and inefficient. Instead of being entirely random, markets evolve based on participants’ actions, allowing patterns to emerge. While random walk theory provides a useful framework, real market behaviour often deviates from its assumptions, leaving room for traders to find potential opportunities beyond pure randomness. Practical Considerations for Traders Even if markets exhibit randomness in the short term, traders still need a structured approach to analysing price action and managing risk. While random walk theory challenges traditional methods, it doesn’t mean traders should abandon analysis altogether. Instead, it highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, risk control, and understanding market conditions. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Price Behaviour Markets may behave randomly on a daily or weekly basis, but longer-term trends can emerge due to liquidity shifts, institutional positioning, and macroeconomic factors. Traders focusing on short-term moves often work with probabilities, using statistical models and historical tendencies to assess risk and potential trade opportunities. Risk Management in an Uncertain Market If price movements are largely unpredictable, risk control becomes even more important. Traders typically limit their exposure using stop losses, position sizing, and diversification to avoid being caught on the wrong side of market volatility. Instead of focusing on certainty, they manage the probability of different outcomes. The Role of Quantitative Strategies While traditional chart patterns may be questioned under random walk theory, quantitative and algorithmic strategies analyse large datasets to identify inefficiencies. High-frequency trading firms, for example, exploit microsecond price discrepancies that aren’t visible to the human eye. Rather than proving whether markets are fully random, traders adapt by testing, refining, and adjusting their strategies based on what works in real conditions. The most experienced traders accept uncertainty but structure their approach around probabilities and risk management. The Bottom Line Random walk theory challenges the idea that past price movements provide an edge, arguing that markets move erratically. While some traders accept this and focus on passive investing, others analyse inefficiencies to find potential opportunities. FAQ What Is the Random Walk Theory? Random walk theory suggests that asset prices move unpredictably, with past movements having no influence on future direction. It argues that markets are efficient, meaning all available information is instantly reflected in prices. This challenges the idea that traders can consistently outperform the market using technical or fundamental analysis. What Is the Meaning of the Random Walk Fallacy? Critics of the theory argue that the random walk fallacy is the mistaken belief that financial markets move in a completely random manner, disregarding factors such as fundamental analysis, technical patterns, and behavioural finance that can influence price trends. This misconception may cause traders to overlook potential opportunities for strategic analysis. What Are the Criticisms of Random Walk Theory? Critics argue that markets display patterns, inefficiencies, and behavioural biases that contradict pure randomness. Studies on momentum, mean reversion and liquidity effects show that past price movements do influence future trends. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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